Singapore interior construction firms penalised S million for rigging bids

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Both attempted to defend their actions by claiming that if they refused to participate in a sweet, they ran the risk of being exempt from upcoming bids. &nbsp,

But, CCCS found that the reason did not hold liquid. &nbsp, &nbsp,

According to CCCS,” the ( firms ‘ ) collusive conduct effectively reduced the number of shortlisted tenderers genuinely competing and gave customers the false appearance of competition for their tenders.” &nbsp,

The organization made it clear that only 44 organizations registered with the Building Construction Authority was submit bids for high-value government initiatives, including Flex Connect, which was formerly known as Facility Link and Tarkus Interior. These projects offer unmatched delicate value for interior finishing and decor projects. &nbsp,

Studies into the businesses ‘ behavior began in November 2020, following a tip-off from a member of the public. Copy of WhatsApp messages were also found in the electronic evidence seized during a raid at the company’s corporate headquarters.

The probe&nbsp, Studies exposed “numerous situations” of diminishing perform, including agreements that destroyed competition laws. &nbsp,

According to the Competition Act of 2004, contracts that stop, limit, or alter rivals within Singapore are prohibited unless they are exempted by law. &nbsp,

On May 23 this month, CCCS issued a proposed copyright selection to the two companies as part of the legal procedure under the Act. A written see that summarizes the CCCS’ choice is the proposed copyright choice. Before CCCS decides whether there has been an copyright, it gives the parties involved a chance to argue. &nbsp,

Before CCCS made its last decision, each business submitted written images. &nbsp,

In making a decision, CCCS considered each business ‘ related turnover, the nature and severity of their vulnerabilities, as well as the aggravating and mitigating aspects. &nbsp,

Flex Connect had requested and received mercy during its first studies, and the CCCS reduced its monetary charges. &nbsp,

When businesses or individuals who are a part of a syndicate agreement or concerted practice come forth to CCCS with info on their cartel activities, the CCCS said its leniency program gives them liberal treatment. These organizations may be subject to a whole exemption or had their financial penalties reduced. &nbsp,

The two organizations have until Feb 20, 2025, to give their individual penalities. Additionally, they have two weeks to file an appeal against the ruling.

CCCS ‘ chief executive Alvin Koh said that pay rigging was a” major copyright” of Singapore’s competition rules that harms both businesses and consumers. According to Mr. Koh, this conduct distorts the competitive bidding process, raises rates, and prevents customers from receiving the best possible price for their bids. &nbsp, &nbsp,

” Ultimately, the Singapore consumer and society pays. If we discover that tenderers are colluding or taking part in any anti-competitive conversations, CCCS did take firm action to ensure our businesses function.

“CCCS advises any firms considering entering into anti-competitive agreements to quickly turn down these discussions and publicly distance itself from them.”

Those who wish to provide information on gang activities you write, message, or visit the CCCS helpline at 1800 325 8282. &nbsp,

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Proposed Honda-Nissan merger could change auto industry landscape – Asia Times

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Honda and Nissan are expected to begin negotiations on a consolidation next year, which will mark a turning point for the Japanese automobile industry. The two organizations, both of which have been overtaken by BYD and which, combined, buy fewer than three-quarters as some vehicles as Toyota, wish to step a healing by combining their technologies and achieving greater economies of scale.

However, the strategy appears to be a tribute to Japan Inc’s reduction of twilight business in the past and a knee-jerk nationalist response to Foxconn’s desire to acquire a stake in Nissan, or even to take over it. Foxconn is the global manufacturer of Taiwan’s Hon Hai Precision Industry.

The investment market’s decision came quickly and clearly. The proposed merger was headline news on the morning of Wednesday, December 18, by the time the market closed, Honda’s stock price was down 3 %, while Nissan’s was up 24 %. Put into words, this is a loan: a fortune for Nissan, terrible news for Honda’s owners. The stock price of Renault, which owns 17.0 % of Nissan directly and 18.7 % through a trust, was up 5 %. Hon Hai’s was down 1 %.

Toyota, Tesla, and BYD have all fallen way behind Honda and Nissan, both of whom were market leaders in the past, in the market for electric and hybrid vehicles. According to information for the three weeks to September, BYD is the sixth-largest manufacturer in terms of vehicle sales, trailing only Honda and Ford. Perhaps even more humiliating, Chinese automaker Geely ( which owns Volvo ) overtook Nissan to rank ninth.

Of program, the consolidation is pitched as forth looking. The two businesses will discuss a merger, according to NikkeiAsia, the English-language type of Japan’s major business regularly,” to better engage against Tesla and Chinese electric vehicle makers in a rapidly changing automotive industry.” According to The Financial Times, Nikkei owns the two businesses, “are in exploratory discussions about a merger of the two carmakers that would create a$ 52 billion Japanese behemoth.”

However, the Japanese language Nikkei’s title for Thursday morning read,” Hon Hai order, sense of problems.” Honda, which had begun discussing a” proper relationship” with Nissan next March, said it would withdraw if Nissan tied up with Hon Hai.

Hon Hai is expanding its electric car company, adding pressure to Honda and Nissan. In 2020, it established the Freedom in Harmony ( MIH) Consortium in hopes of becoming the “android structure of the Vehicle business” and” creating a’ software-defined’ available ecosystem for the Vehicle manufacturing business”. Additionally, Hon Hai and Taiwanese manufacturer Yulon work together to create electronic vehicles under their own design.

The MIH Consortium, which develops guide patterns and open requirements, now has more than 2, 700 people, including more than 100 in Japan. Jun Seki, the CEO of Dongfeng Nissan ( Nissan’s joint venture with Dongfeng Motor in China ), the CEO of Japanese automaker Nidec, and most recently, the CEO of Hon Hai’s electric vehicle operations, is the head of the company.

Seki apparently sees possible synergies with Nissan, which launched its founding electric car, the Nissan LEAF, in 2010, and is said to be interested in acquiring Renault’s communicate of Nissan.

Renault has been backing away from its alliance with Nissan and Mitsubishi Motors, while Honda and Nissan are considering bringing Mitsubishi Motors into a novel, all-Japanese, three-way ally. After cutting back on the production of gasoline-powered cars, this alliance would be no more than 80 % the size of Toyota today, but probably no more than 70 % as large. Despite this, it may conceivably be comparable to the size of the Hyundai Motor Group, which presently leads Toyota and Volkswagen in terms of size.

Note that only three of the world’s top 10 automakers reported year-on-year unit sales increases in the three months to September 2024: BYD ( 38 % ), Geely ( 20 % ) and Ford ( 1 % ). The others reported single-digit declines, except for GM (-13 % ) and Honda (-12 % ). On current trends, BYD perhaps soon beat GM and Stellantis, while Geely catches up with Honda.

Asia Times Chart. Data from motor1.com

Nissan’s overall product sales decreased by only 3 % in the previous quarter, but both sales and prices dropped in China. As a result, the bank’s online income dropped by more than 90 % in the first quarter of this fiscal year, which ends in March 2025. Honda’s online profit was over 20 % in the same time, for the same purpose.

Honda also needs a self-driving car alternative after failing to work with GM on its Cruise robotaxi next week, leaving Honda in the dark. Cruise and GM had a lot in mind when they were planning to visit Tokyo in 2026.

The solution may already be in the works. At the beginning of August, Honda and Nissan announced plans to do joint study into next-generation software-defined cars, autonomous driving and AI, as well as chargers, power paying, and electric car engine and transmission systems (e-axles ). With time, this could lead to self-driving taxis.

Honda intends to follow Toyota and BYD into the passenger car market, where they are already the most popular brand.

Although it is easy to be cynical about these developments, we need to remember that Toyota’s commitment to hybrid vehicles was criticized for years by those who believed pure electric, battery-powered vehicles were the future’s car of the future. They were wrong, and those who are skeptical of the Honda-Nissan merger may also be mistaken. But fighting back against Toyota, Hyundai, BYD, Geely and other aggressive competitors won’t be easy.

Follow this writer on&nbsp, X: @ScottFo83517667

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Will the federal deficit be Trump’s nemesis? – Asia Times

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This research appeared earlier this week in the Asia Times ‘ International Risk-Reward Monitor, a regular examination of market forces.

Given our current position of information about the new government’s intentions, we foresee a steadily deteriorating socioeconomic environment in 2025 with continual high interest rates, higher than expected inflation, and weaker than expected earnings.

The Biden Administration bequeathed Donald Trump the largest-ever federal deficit ( at 6.1 % &nbsp, of GDP ) in an economic expansion. &nbsp, The president-elect wants to renew&nbsp, his 2018 corporate tax cut at an estimated cost of$ 400 billion per year, &nbsp, and&nbsp, eliminate taxes on Social Security income at a cost of about$ 150 billion per year. &nbsp, That would raise the federal deficit, now at$ 1.7 trillion, by about a quarter, minus possible revenues from additional tariffs ( which now bring in about$ 80 billion a year in revenue ), and whatever cost savings&nbsp, his team can obtain from spending reductions.

What didn’t go on forever didn’t, according to Okun’s Rules, and the United States doesn’t continue to run up the federal deficit continuously. But it has a price to pay to continue doing so for the near future. America doesn’t encounter a” Liz Truss time” ,&nbsp, as Swiss Re economist&nbsp, Jerome Jean Haegeli&nbsp, told the Wall Street Journal&nbsp, November 21, referring to&nbsp, the blowup of the UK tie business in October 2022 after the short-tenured prime minister proposed deep tax cuts. &nbsp, For the time being, the US can fund the Treasury’s saving need with&nbsp, local resources. However, that comes at a high price, and it’s possible that financial pressure may become stronger in 2025.

Unlike the aftereffects of the 2008 World Financial Crisis, when foreign central banks financed the boom in Treasury loans, US regional economic institutions&nbsp, absorbed the bulk of post-Covid Treasury financing, with some help from international personal investors and US homes. The presence of financial institutions in Treasury funding is more clearly visible graphically in terms of levels.

Lenders can continue to get Treasuries, but only if interest rates remain high. According to McKinsey, return on equity for large parts of the finance sector would be lower than the institutions ‘ individual cost of capital without the rise in interest rates of the previous two years. The supply on medium-term Treasuries is approximately equivalent to the bank’s loans from the central bank, which means that the deficit cannot be funded by the legendary printing press. Deposits, while, cost much less than borrowed money, and the Biden Administration’s massive governmental increase of 2019-2020 unleashed a flood of payments into the banking system. Payments rose much faster than institutions ‘ loans and leases, and were channeled into Treasuries.

That began a period in motion. Federal subsidies caused the gap to balloon, but a sizable percentage of those subsidies were reinvested back into the Treasury securities that provided the deficit. The grants unleashed prices, and the Federal Reserve&nbsp, raised interest rates, making Treasuries appealing for businesses. &nbsp, Higher interest rates&nbsp, doubled the cost of servicing the federal debt, to$ 1 trillion last year from$ 500 million in 2020.

In short, the rising of Treasuries on banks balance sheets, the higher price setting, the higher deficit expected to doubled interest payments, and higher inflation are all facets of the same problem.

What could go bad?

For one thing, a year ago, the surge in payments that made it possible for banks to purchase Treasuries with inexpensive customer money stopped. Lenders will have to make a higher yield than they already receive for immediately money from the Federal Reserve in order to continue funding the deficit. The secured over funding rate is currently higher than the supply of five-year Treasuries.

Businesses can use inexpensive reserves to finance buying of Treasury securities, but no expensive borrowings from the central bank. As we see in the chart above, &nbsp, the year-on-year shift in business businesses assets of US Treasury and Agency stocks tracks the year-on-year shift in payments.

Lenders will only be able to continue funding the Treasury gap once the spread between the central bank’s cost of funds and the produce on Treasury securities has dried up. One chance, of course, is that the main institution could provide cheaper revenue to the banks. That would in effect allow the printing press to fund the Treasury deficit, which is a badly inflationary move. Fed head Jerome Powell didn’t do this.

Another possibility is that medium-term Treasury yields need to climb. Rising long-term curiosity rates, though, may reduce if not eradicate economic growth.

Furthermore, US households may stop consuming and purchase a lot more government securities. &nbsp, American families save only 4.4 % of their disposable income, or about$ 1 trillion a year. If homeowners doubled that to$ 2 trillion a month, they could fund the gap by themselves. However, a rapid decline in use may lead to a recession, lower taxes revenues, and a bigger deficit.

Accidents are often feasible – for example, a big problem in the multi-trillion industry for short-term funding of government securities. As the Federal Reserve shrank its portfolio holdings of Treasuries, the illiquidity of the Treasury market ( as measured by the bid-asked spreads of off-the-run Treasuries ) worsened.

However, it’s unlikely that a liquidity seize-up would cause any long-term harm. Central banks have a way to react to these kinds of situations; they simply purchase whatever is available until the market drops.

The consequence of the expansion of US debt, high inflation, high Treasury rates and high debt service costs is likely to be gradual – a headwind, not a cyclone. &nbsp, This will hit US consumers the hardest.

US consumers borrowed money from credit markets to maintain their level of consumption after the Biden subsidies expired in response to high ( and significantly higher than expected ) inflation. Credit card debt increased significantly, while the interest rate on revolving credit increased from 14 % to 22 %. Revolving credit’s total interest payments increased from$ 100 billion to$ 250 billion last year.

The tax cuts that Trump’s team has &nbsp, discussed don’t have supply-side effects. Extending the old corporate tax cut doesn’t change incentives to invest, and removing taxation of Social Security benefits won’t bring more 70-year-old into the workforce. &nbsp, Tariffs cannot help but increase prices, both for consumers and for production inputs. Higher tariffs on imported capital goods will likely lead to a lower investment because the US currently imports more capital goods domestically than it produces.

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Minister Tulip Siddiq named in Bangladesh corruption probe

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In an investigation into allegations that her family embezzled up to £3.9 billion ( Tk 590 billion ) from infrastructure projects in Bangladesh, a Labour minister has been named.

Tulip Siddiq is accused of breakingred a bargain with Russia in 2013 for a new nuclear power plant in Bangladesh that resulted in £1 billion being stolen from personal fingers. As the Treasury’s Economic Secretary, he is alleged to have managed to combat fraud in English financial industry.

The allegation is part of a wider investigation by Bangladesh’s Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC) into Siddiq’s aunt Sheikh Hasina, the recently deposed prime minister of the country who fled to India in August.

Siddiq has been approached for remark. The Labour Party has not commented on the matter.

The research is based on a number of allegations made by Hasina’s senior political opponent, Bobby Hajjaj.

The ACC is also investigating several of Hasina’s household members, including Siddiq’s family Sheikh Rehana Siddiq, and top officials from her state.

Hasina, who oversaw Bangladesh for more than 20 years, was viewed as an autocrat whose government brutally repressed opposition.

Hasina has been charged with numerous acts by the new Bangladeshi authorities since escaping the nation.

Hasina is wanted by Bangladesh’s International Criminal Tribunal ( ICT) for her alleged involvements in” crimes against humanity” that took place during the marches, in which thousands were killed.

Additionally, 45 others, including former government officials who likewise emigrated, have been granted arrest warrants.

Syed Faruk, who runs the UK unit of Hasina’s Awami League group, said the says were “fabricated”.

Siddiq was elected MP for Holborn and St. Pancras, north London’s neighboring communities of Hampstead and Highgate in 2015, in addition to Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s chair.

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Christmas market vendors, operators brace for rainy weather amid year-end monsoon season

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EMBRACING THE Colorful Heart

Better prepared are some foods truck suppliers close to the festival.
 
First-time owner Artyzen Hotel claimed that their organization has not been impacted by the bad weather over the past year. &nbsp,
 
” We operate three restaurants, all of which have outdoor furniture, so we have some practice with dealing with rainy conditions or severe weather”, said Artyzen Singapore public director Jeff Crowe. &nbsp,
 
Our food truck does have an cover, which allows us to spread the coated area a lot, and it appears to have taken care of any visitors or customers who come our way.
 
Organisers at the Marina Bay World Christmas Market have planned away to deal with the weather. &nbsp,
 
” All the stalls, all the stores these have shelter”, said Mr Nick Tan, CEO of artistic media technology company Oceanus Media Global.
 
” There is a combination of different interior sheltered activities”, he added. Simply put, we continue to prioritize the outdoor activities that will bring people pleasure and the atmosphere of the Christmas business.
 
CNA spoke with the event’s organizers, who claimed the dreary weather had never stifled the festive spirit.
 
People are still attending these Christmas areas, they continued. Whether it is rain or shine,
 
One customer said:” Even though it’s raining, I still like to travel around because it’s Christmas”.

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Trump 2.0: Asia in a highly risky place in America’s inflation era – Asia Times

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As Asia brackets for the fantastic” Trump business” experience of 2025, the instructions from 2024 are fast piling up.

The biggest session is how badly the inflation-is-transitory deal worked out for buyers. And for citizens and earth officials who don’t appreciate a Donald Trump 2.0 president.

The&nbsp, US prices surge has some parents — from post-Covid supply chain disruptions to exceptionally low interest rates to an blast of over-the-top state signal. But Trump’s election is the mother-of-all part results from fiscal and monetary laws run rampant.

And Asia has the greatest front-row seats for what’s to come as Trump retakes the ropes with really big — and&nbsp, questionable — programs.

The Trump-to-be-war is the subject of the most attention. But far more attention should be on the fireworks sure to come as Trump ‘s&nbsp, policy promises&nbsp, meet with a fiscal train wreck unfolding in slow motion.

On January 20, Trump did gain a federal loan exceeding US$ 36 trillion. And depending on which columnist you follow, Trump may be about to axe the debt in significant ways with huge tax cuts, or given the enormous knife Trump has given Elon Musk, to aggressively reduce it.

Which result might result in significant risks for world markets.

Door No. One could see payment rating companies stumbling over US debt as US debt rises to US$ 40 trillion. Washington was quickly lose its final Premium standing, from Moody’s Investors Service. Asia is directly at the center of the conflict that a downgrade may cause in the world’s relationship, stock, and money markets.

Door No. 2 may see Trump’s Tesla tycoon patron trying to trim&nbsp, national spending&nbsp, by firing government workers here and there. However, Musk’s state performance product won’t make a gash until Team Trump is ready to attack the military and privileges like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.

Deregulation and excessive grants for sectors like Musk’s private businesses would have much more success. A lack of funding in productivity-boosting industries and technologies made the US so vulnerable to inflation.

” With Trump and some good appointees focused on reducing diplomatic deficits”, says Andrew Tilton, &nbsp, an analyst at Goldman Sachs,” there is a danger that — in a sort of’ whack-a-mole’ way — burgeoning bilateral deficits was eventually fast US tariffs on another Asian economies”.

Tilton adds that” Korea, Taiwan and, particularly, &nbsp, Vietnam&nbsp, have seen big trade benefits versus the US”, things Trump 2.0 isn’t possible to let slip. As such, Asia’s leading trading nations does try to narrow surplus to “deflect” Team Trump’s focus away from them.

According to Barclays Bank analyst Brian Tan,” business plan is where Mr. Trump is likely to be most significant for emerging Asia in his second word as US leader,” inflicting “greater pain” on more empty economies.

Suffice it to say, America’s debt excesses also will challenge — and most likely plague — the Trump 2.0 era in ways the president-elect doesn’t seem to realize.

If ever there were a buckle-your-seatbelt moment for Asia, 2025 is it. The combination of runaway debt and inflation will limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to continue&nbsp, cutting rates. And even if Fed Chairman Jerome Powell tries, fiscal realities will result in higher-than-hoped long-term rates.

The state of the banking system is one of the pressing concerns of the Fed. Banks have been huge buyers of Treasury securities. If medium and long-term government debt yields fall faster than expected, will institutions experience stability issues?

This could trigger supply issues, too. If interest rates move too low or move too quickly, is it reasonable to ask if banks can continue to buy Treasuries?

According to Yanmei Xie, an economist at Gavekal Dragonomics, one of Asia’s issues is that it’s unclear who Trump will be in the White House in roughly a month.

The issue with interpreting trade policy in a second Trump administration is that Trump has publicly supported both positions and that Trump has publicly stated his views on them. The common feature is tariffs or the threat of tariffs: 60 % or more on China and 10-20 % on the&nbsp, rest of the world. But to what end?”

One possibility, she says, is that Trump will go with his once and possibly future trade czar, Robert Lighthizer, in pushing for a rapid, across-the-board disengagement from China.

Trump,” Xie says,” promised a four-year plan to phase out all imports of essential goods from China, including everything from electronics to steel to pharmaceuticals, and pledged to include strong safeguards to prevent China from bypassing restrictions by passing goods through conduit nations. In this scenario, there would be a ramping-up of coercive pressure on allies to join in the&nbsp, anti-China&nbsp, agenda.”

Trump might also use the threat of tariffs as leverage to strike a deal with China, despite the content of any such deal being very uncertain. This is the approach favored by Scott Bessent” – Trump’s pick for Treasury secretary –” who claims that Trump is in fact ‘ a free trader ‘ who will deploy tariffs to escalate to&nbsp, de-escalate,” Xie notes.

Another major Trump wild card is a US dollar devaluation, which many Trump advisers see as the fastest way to regain broad-based manufacturing competitiveness.

” China is unlikely to cooperate with this agenda,” Xie says”, but the theory of the across-the-board tariff on all trading partners seems to be that it will also be used as leverage in currency negotiations.”

Trump has in fact mentioned a Plaza Accord 2.0, which lowers the dollar against the yen.

In 1985, US President Ronald Reagan’s Treasury secretary, James Baker, managed to convince the most powerful industrialized nations to push the yen sharply higher and the dollar lower. It was the high-point of Reagan’s mercantilist policy mix, which inspired Trump. The Plaza Hotel, a landmark hotel in New York that Trump once owned, was the location of the transaction.

When Trump was in office, advisors like Peter Navarro and then-Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin made hints about Trump’s desire for a “new Plaza Agreement” that would send the Chinese yuan into a soaring range. Now, as&nbsp, Trump 2.0&nbsp, gears up, Trump seems ready to give the strategy another try.

Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, would undoubtedly reject. Chinese officials are aware of how the 1985 currency deal caused Japan’s asset bubble in the late 1980s, which resulted in decades of economic stagnation. A stronger yuan would slam China’s crucial export engine, but many economists worry that a weaker dollar might cause inflation to go into the stratosphere.

One way Trump might try to engineer a weaker dollar is by commandeering&nbsp, Fed policy&nbsp, decisions. Trump and his advisers have made it clear that in January, the Fed’s independence will be in jeopardy. The” Project 2025 “scheme that Republican operatives cooked up for Trump 2.0 includes curbing the Fed’s autonomy.

Jerome Powell, Trump’s handpicked Fed chairman, had a challenging time during Trump 1.0. From 2017 to 2021, Trump cajoled Powell’s team with a verve never before seen from a White House. Trump attacked the Fed in speeches, press conferences and on social media. Trump even mulled firing Powell. That year, the Fed suddenly began cutting rates, adding liquidity to an economy that didn’t need it.

In October, Trump mocked Powell’s policymaking team”. I think it’s the greatest job in government,” Trump told Bloomberg”. Everybody talks about you like a god when you say, “let’s say flip a coin,” and you show up to the office once a month.

Trump also contends that presidents have the authority to compel the central bank to do their bidding. Trump said in August that the Federal Reserve is a very interesting thing and that it has sort of gotten it wrong frequently. He added that” I feel the president should have at least say in there, yeah. I feel that strongly. I think that, in my case, I made a lot of money. I was very successful. And I believe I have a better sense of instinct than those who, in many cases, would be chairman or the Federal Reserve.

Such maneuvers are of particular concern in Asia, where central banks have the largest stocks of US Treasury securities. Japan alone holds US$ 1.1 trillion of US debt, &nbsp, China&nbsp, US$ 770-plus billion. The largest investors in Asia have approximately US$ 3 trillion worth. Many pieces of Asian state wealth could be in danger as a result of Trump’s 2.0 presidency.

Trump’s antics here could send the dollar sharply lower. Many investors argue, of course, that continued dollar strength isn’t necessarily great news for the global financial system heading toward 2025 either. In recent years, the dollar’s “wrecking ball” tendencies have shook global markets. It sucked up outsized waves of global capital, disadvantaging emerging economies in particular. &nbsp,

When Tom Dunleavy, a partner at MV Capital, states that the risks posed by this wrecking ball dynamic are “particularly acute in emerging markets because” they rely heavily on commodities and have debt in dollars, he speaks for many. ” Oil, most trade and debt are still priced in dollars. And, he says”, The denominator of everything is going up.”

Regardless of the dubious logic behind it, the more crowded a continued-dollar-strength trade becomes, the worse the global fallout when depressed punters flee for the exits. If Trump’s Treasury team works to devalue the dollar, the U-turn could be particularly chaotic. The more chaotic a maneuver becomes the more inflationary it turns out to be.

Economists including former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers are warning that Trump would be wise to abandon his campaign promises, in order to avoid sending&nbsp, inflation&nbsp, sharply higher. &nbsp,

Summers was right about US inflation being of the longer-lasting variety. Now, he worries that Trump’s plans to impose giant tariffs, cut taxes, deport undocumented workers and mess with the Fed’s mandate will boost inflation.

According to Summers,” If he sticks to what he said during his campaign, there will be an inflation shock that will be far greater than what the nation experienced in 2021.”

Summers worries that the upcoming Trump stimulus may bring prices down to the nine-decade high of 9.1 %, which was recorded in June 2022. In 2025, US inflation almost certainly will rule the world economy, even if this proves to be too pessimistic.

According to Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at broker OANDA,” the incoming Trump administration’s ‘ America First ‘ policy may see a further escalation of deglobalization that could lead to headwinds to global economic growth and spurt another round of inflationary pressure resurgence.”

Wong points out that Trump’s mercantilist policies may cause the 10-year US Treasury yield to increase faster than the 2-year rate because of higher inflationary pressures.

Far from being transitory, US inflation may be about to get a very powerful second wind, one sure to blow Asia’s way early and often in 2025.

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Asia’s bond outlook upbeat for issuers in 2025: JP Morgan | FinanceAsia

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A combination of lower interest rates, lower failures, and more securities is good for businesses and governments looking to enter Asia’s bond market in 2025.

There are hopes for Asia’s tie business next year to beat 2024 which is expected to hit$ 160-165 billion in 2024 for Asia, ex-Japan. There is a lot of willingness from banks to provide in the area as issuers prepare to enter the market, which is helping to keep extends small.

Speaking at an early December press presentation in Hong Kong, Jessica Chen, head of China DCM, creation Asia ex-Japan, JP Morgan:” General spreads are small and look extremely attractive to issuers. In 2024, China is expected to overtake Korea in terms of release ( from 2023 ) as the country’s largest business”.

Chen added:” We are expecting$ 170 billion of supply in 2025 in Asia, ex Japan with stockpile to pick up over 2024. We anticipate that this pattern will continue as some businesses mortgage next year.

Another positive factor is that regional relationship failures are declining, and that the US Fed will cut interest rates even further in the coming year. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Soo Chong Lim, managing director, head of Asia credit research, JP Morgan, said:” Bond default rates declined to around 4.4 % in 2024 compared with 17 % in 2023, and we expect them to decline further to 3 % in 2025″.

Despite falling interest rates in the US, anticipation are mixed regarding home bonds and the potential for some headwinds. &nbsp,

Lim added:” We expect three]US Fed ] rate cuts in 2025 and China’s GDP to grow 3.9 % next year. There will still be market volatility, particularly for the Chinese real estate sector, which is recovering slowly after a number of years of volatility. For instance, in Hong Kong, the company occupancy rate will continue to decline as a result of the supply that enters the market.

In 2024, India – probably Asia’s best performing market– had a very powerful yr for bond issuances, a trend that is set to remain in the new year.

Puja Shah, head of Southeast Asia ( SEA ), DCM and sustainable finance Asia ex-Japan, JP Morgan, said:” The high yield bond market in India was a particular bright spot in 2024 with some large names coming onto the market. It is at$ 4.7 billion YTD, and we expect that momentum to continue into 2025 with around$ 5 billion in supply”.

The issuing of green bonds is expected to increase as well. Singapore-based Shah added:” We expect stable demand, at between 25-30 % of issuances, for sustainable ( green and social ) bonds next year in the region, compared with 25 % in 2024″.

¬ Plaza Media Limited. All rights reserved.

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Why ‘Trump trade’ may cow BOJ into inaction – Asia Times

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The only thing falling more quickly than the renminbi are the chances that the Bank of Japan will increase interest rates this year.

BOJ authorities have made it abundantly clear in a number of press leaks that they see little need to stretch on Thursday when the main banks holds its two-day policy meeting.

One major cause is Donald Trump. When the US president-elect results to the White House on Jan. 20, he’s expected to roll out a series of growth-hobbling taxes in short order. This might include the 60 % charges that Trump has threatened to impose on China.

Though Japan isn’t being targeted — at least not still — Asia’s second-biggest market is straight in the collateral-damage area. Chinese businesses are anticipating a ton of chaos in 2025 as a result.

Additionally, it prompts BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda to reevaluate his choices for price increases. Six months prior to a December tightening shift, it was moving at full speed. Trump’s impact vote win on November 5 thickened the story. Also, his more recent actions to telephone tariffs on Mexico and Canada have been.

All of this has caused BOJ officials to claim that standing pat will cost less this week. What politicians aren’t saying, though, is that this delay may last longer than most traders think.

For example, Japan’s economy is almost ending 2025 on strong foundation.

” With wage growth and imports sputtering and political doubt clouding the view, Japan’s business seems unable to get out of initial gear”, Stefan Angrick, mind Japan scholar at Moody’s Analytics.

Angrick adds that “headwinds facing the business are significant. Household income are straining because wages are improving but not yet strong enough to keep up with prices. Exports are being weighed down by poor physical demand and domestic car production issues.

If Trump starts to stifle international trade, these dynamics could escalate. There’s desire that Trump’s tax risks are a negotiating strategy meant to set the stage for a “grand deal” business cope with China. Some, though, think Trump won’t be able to resist a deal battle.

Trump has a variety of controversial ideas, but tariffs, particularly those aimed at China, are one of the most important areas of intellectual persistence that has existed, according to Nick Marro, an economist for the Economist Intelligence Unit. In consequence, businesses and investors may become considering how to get ready for the worst.

Or even worse than that. Managers at Toyota, Honda and Nissan live in constant fear that Trump might stretch the 100 % tariffs he plans for Mexico-made trucks to Japan, too.

Trump’s continued bash of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has not escaped Japan Inc. Since Trump’s success, Ishiba has been lobbying hard for a conference, Shinzo Abe-style.

The late Abe was the first world president to applaud Donald Trump in New York’s Trump Tower in November 2016. Abe also defended the” America First” leader in the face of resolute opposition. ” I am convinced Mr. Trump is a leader in whom I may have great trust” and” a relationship of trust”, Abe told reporters.
 
Abe made headlines around the world by playing golf at Trump’s Florida membership. Abe was hailed as a political Trump vehicle by political observers who credited him with shielding Japan from his anger.

The truth is much more complicated. Abe’s fawning didn’t prevent Trump from abandoning the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the center of Japan’s efforts to contain China. Japan didn’t find a complete on Trump’s taxes. Trump embarrassed Japan by disclosing that Abe had nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize.

Perhaps so, Ishiba hopes to repeat Abe’s ways. Since November, Ishiba has been angling for a Mar-a-Lago tee-time. Trump rebuffed Ishiba, claiming the 1799 Logan Act makes it unsuitable for a president-elect to join with foreign officials.

Trump and a slew of different world officials have gathered in Tokyo since then. Over the last two days, Trump spent time with Canada’s Justin Trudeau, France’s Emmanuel Macron, Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky, Hungary’s Viktor Orban, Argentina’s Javier Milei and perhaps Prince William.

Trump’s potential plans to impose levies on the market are a source of concern for Japan Inc. If you already know your laws will be affecting Japan’s 2025 in a disorganized way, why make peace with Ishiba?

South Korea has reasons to worry its business is in harm’s way, also. Yoon Suk Yeol, president of the United States, has been meeting with Trump, also removing his golf clubs for the first time in eight years.

Trump’s following trade war might have a stronger impact on Japan and Korea than the political elites in Tokyo and Seoul now believe.

A price increase this Thursday may seem like an unnecessary risk, according to Ueda’s BOJ team as Tokyo prepares for what is to come.

As for, says Takeshi Yamaguchi, general Japan economist at Morgan Stanley MUFG,” we expect the BOJ to stay on-hold on the basis of wanting some further observation of wage trends, especially wage-hike momentum toward the 2025 spring wage negotiations, and the outlook of US monetary policy”.

Yamaguchi adds that Morgan Stanley keeps its prediction for a price increase in January 2025. Another BOJ observers believe that the policy board of Ueda may decide that international trends are reducing the central bank’s ability to raise rates.

” Political threats, including US security talks and regional tensions, include fiscal and safety uncertainties” that complicate the financial viewpoint, says Marcello Estevão, an analyst at the Institute of International Finance.

The US Federal Reserve, for example, might not be cutting rates as much as markets had priced in. US inflation isn’t cooling off as quickly as anticipated.

And as Trump’s tariffs make steel and aluminum more expensive, it’ll cause a” supply shock” for the US auto industry and others, warns economist Barry Eichengreen at the University of California at Berkeley.

The BOJ might be concerned about triggering a significant yen rally that would hurt Japan Inc.

Meanwhile, retail sales in China proved markedly weaker than expected last month. That could make the People’s Bank of China‘s desire for more rate cuts more urgent. However, it serves as a reminder that Japan’s most significant market is sluggish and that the risk of deflation is rising.

” We do expect]the PBOC] to step up the pace of rate cuts next year”, says Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics.

In November, Chinese imports fell 3.9 % year-on-year, suggesting that stimulus efforts to date aren’t gaining the traction Beijing hoped. A stronger yen might result in even less Chinese export demand.

There’s also a chance that Trump will attempt to stifle the dollar to gain a competitive advantage. To be sure, the dollar’s relentless strength in recent years has been” stomach churning”, says strategist Kit Juckes at Societe Generale, calling it” not sustainable” over the long-term.
 
However, Trump’s devaluation of the dollar might send the yen into a sour gloom. That might lessen the BOJ’s confidence in pushing the monetary brakes.

Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party is retaining control by a thread as these external risks arise. There is little room to accelerate economic reforms because of this. Ishiba, for example, is pledging more than US$ 65 billion to raise Japan’s semiconductor game as part of a broader economic package. It will help push Japan Inc. “up the value chain amid growing global competition”, says Scott Bade, analyst at Eurasia Group.

However, Ishiba’s fragile hold on power may make these and other initiatives more difficult to pass, and it may also be one of the reasons why the Ueda BOJ may not be as eager to tighten as the markets had predicted.

No risk factor looms larger than Trump’s coming trade war with China and, perhaps, Japan, too. Policymakers may have fewer and fewer opportunities to raise rates above the current 0. 25 % level before Team Ueda is informed of the magnitude of the financial carnage that might dominate 2025.

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India already has 1.45 billion people. Why does it want more children?

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AFP Indian Hindu devotees gesture before attempting to form a human pyramid in a bid to reach and break a dahi-handi (curd-pot) suspended in air during celebrations for the Janmashtami festival, which marks the birth of Hindu god Lord Krishna, in Mumbai on August 18, 2014AFP

Last month, India nudged earlier China to become the world’s most populous state, according to UN projections.

With almost 1.45 billion people today, you’d think the country may be silent about having more children. But suppose what? The conversation has unapologetically gotten loud.

Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu have lately made child advocates for both of the southern states.

Andhra Pradesh is mulling providing incentives, citing low fertility rates and ageing population. The state also scrapped its “two-child policy” for local body elections, and reports say neighbouring Telangana may soon do the same. Next-door Tamil Nadu is also making similar, more exaggerated, noises.

India’s reproduction rate has drastically decreased, from 5 births per woman in 1950 to the current two-birth level.

In 17 of the 29 states and territories, fertility prices have fallen below the replacement rate of two births per person. ( A replacement level is one where a population level of one is sufficient to support a stable population. )

The five southwestern Indian state lead India’s demographic change, achieving replacement-level reproduction well ahead of people. Kerala reached the breakthrough in 1988, Tamil Nadu in 1993, and the rest by the mid-2000s.

Getty Images Newly born babies rest inside a ward on the occasion of World Population Day at Government Children's Hospital in Chennai.Getty Images

Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, the five southern state, each having a reproduction rate of less than 1.6 and Tamil Nadu, the other two. In other words, these claims have lower fertility rates than many other European nations.

However, these states worry that India’s shifting demographics, which vary in community levels between states, does have a significant impact on parliamentary seats and federal revenues.

They fear being punished for their powerful population control measures, despite being better monetary performers and making a sizable contribution to national revenues, according to Srinivas Goli, a teacher of demography at the International Institute for Population Sciences.

Southern states are also grappling with another major concern as India prepares for its first delimitation of electoral seats in 2026 – the first since 1976.

This workout will redraw political boundaries to reveal population shifts, good reducing political seats for the financially developed southern states. Many people worry that this will cause their financial problems and restrict the ability to make decisions about federal funding because position groups are allocated.

Demographers KS James and Shubhra Kriti project that populous northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar stand to gain more seats from delimitation, while southern states such as Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh could face losses, further shifting political representation.

Many, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, have hinted that changes to fiscal shares and parliamentary seat allocations will not be rushed through.

Getty Images An elephant bearing the red triangle symbol of the Lal Tikon Fund to publicise birth control and family planning, enters a village to spread the news and offer informationGetty Images

” As a et, I don’t believe claims may be unduly concerned about these issues. According to Mr. Goli, they can be resolved through fruitful agreements between the federal and state governments. ” My issue lies somewhere”.

The crucial challenge, according to practitioners, is India’s fast age driven by declining fertility rates. India is expected to reach this milestone in just 28 years, according to Mr. Goli, while countries like France and Sweden took 120 and 80 years, respectively, to double their aging population from 7 % to 14 %.

This accelerated age is related to India’s unique ability to reverse a decline in reproduction. In most places, improved living requirements, training, and urbanisation normally lower fertility as baby survival improves.

But in India, reproduction rates fell fast despite modest socio-economic improvement, thanks to violent family welfare programmes that promoted little families through targets, incentives, and disincentives.

The unintended consequence? Take Andhra Pradesh, for instance. Its fertility rate is 1.5, on par with Sweden, but its per capita income is 28 times lower, says Mr Goli. With mounting debt and limited resources, can states like these support higher pensions or social security for a rapidly aging population?

Consider this. More than 40% of elderly Indians (60 years) belong to the poorest wealth quintile – the bottom 20% of a population in terms of wealth distribution, according to United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)’s latest India Ageing Report.

In other words, Mr Goli says,” India is getting older before getting rich”.

Fewer children even indicate a rising age dependency ratio, which means fewer caretakers for an expanding elderly population. Practitioners warn that India’s care, community centres and old-age homes are ready for this change.

Getty Images Elderly women at Pramod Talukdar Memorial Old Age Home light Diya oil lamps as they celebrate Diwali in Guwahati, India, on November 1, 2024Getty Images

Urbanisation, migration, and changing labour markets are more eroding classic family support- India’s solid point- leaving more elderly people on.

While migration from populous to less populous states can ease the working-age gap, it also sparks anti-migration anxieties. ” Robust investments in prevention, palliative care, and social infrastructure are urgently needed to look after the ageing”, says Mr Goli.

As if the southern states’ concerns weren’t enough, earlier this month, the chief of the Hindu nationalist Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (National Volunteers’ Organisation), the ideological backbone of Mr Modi’s BJP – urged couples to have at least three children to secure India’s future. “According to population science, when growth falls below 2.1, a society perishes on its own. Nobody destroys it,” Mohan Bhagwat reportedly said at a recent meeting.

While Mr Bhagwat’s concerns may have some basis, they are not entirely accurate, say demographers. Following a decade or two of declining population, Tim Dyson, a demographer at the London School of Economics, predicted that if people continued to have “very low levels of fertility,” they would experience” shortening population decline.”

A fertility rate of 1.8 births per woman leads to a slow, manageable population decline. But a rate of 1.6 or lower could trigger “rapid, unmanageable population decline”.

Arun chandra bose Kerala schoolArun chandra bose

” Smaller numbers of people will enter the reproductive- and main working- ages, and this will be socially, politically and economically disastrous. According to Mr. Dyson, this is a demographic process that is extremely challenging to reverse.

This is already happening in some countries.

In May, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared the country’s record-low birth rate a “national emergency” and announced plans for a dedicated government ministry. Greece’s fertility rate has plummeted to 1.3, half of what it was in 1950, sparking warnings from Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis about an “existential” population threat.

Demographers contend that it is pointless to encourage more children. This trend is unlikely to change, according to Mr. Dyson, given the societal shifts that have occurred, including the significant reduction in gender disparities as women’s lives have become more and more similar to those of men.

For Indian states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala, grappling with a declining workforce, the key question is: who will step in to fill the gap? Developed nations are focusing on healthy and active ageing, prolonging working life by five to seven years and increasing productivity in older populations, unable to reverse declining fertility.

Demographers say India will need to extend retirement ages meaningfully, and policies must prioritise increasing healthy years through better health screenings, and stronger social security to ensure an active and productive older population – a potential “silver dividend”.

India must also leverage its demographic dividend better- economic growth that occurs when a country has a large, working-age population. Mr Goli believes there’s a window of opportunity until 2047 to boost the economy, create jobs for the working-age population, and allocate resources for the ageing. ” We’re only reaping 15-20 % of the dividend- we can do much better”, he says.

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New threats in regional drugs fight

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UNODC helps discover new money for rose farmers, tackle high-level computer crime, writes Poramet Tangsathaporn

The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime ( UNODC ) believes that countries in the greater Mekong subregion ( GMS ) need to cooperate cross-border and cross-sectorally to combat illicit drugs.

UNODC executive producer Ghada Fathi Waly stated in a new virtual meeting with the Bangkok Post that tackling illicit drug gardening requires finding a way to assist producers in turning to reliable sources of income.

” The farmers who grow crops like opium poppies are trying to provide basic requirements for their people. We need to make sustainable lives at scale for producers, provide business education and access to markets, enable women in rural communities, and educate young people while being concerned towards the atmosphere”, she said.

That calls for a lot more funding from the global community than what is currently available.

Ms. Waly spoke at the foreign meeting” From Alternative Development to Sustainable Development Goals: Empowering Alternative Development to Address Global Challenges” that the Royal Project Foundation had organized in Chiang Mai early this month.

She claimed that Thailand is a worldwide leader in finding creative and sustainable ways to support these farmers by enabling them to transition from growing opium poppies to growing high-land plants in cold climates through the Royal Project Foundation, which aid them in earning a sustainable income.

Ghada Fathi Waly. UNODC, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime

Ghada Fathi Waly. UNODC, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime

A crucial partner

Thailand has long been a crucial UNODC lover in Laos and Myanmar. With this energy, Thailand may help push morphine out of the Golden Triangle, the border region of Thailand, Laos and Myanmar, and in other nations in the GMS place, she said.

She cited the fundamental changes that Thailand can make to the local drug market, including ketamine and methamphetamine, as well as chemical drugs.

Methamphetamine production has increased rapidly, and a sizable number of synthetic drugs were found next month.

” Last month, countries in East and Southeast Asia seized 190 kilograms of meth. The vendors in the area have likewise expanded to include morphine and other chemical drugs. Opium production has also increased significantly in recent years in Myanmar, and it appears to have stabilized at higher rates this time, she said.

She argued that local assistance is now more crucial than ever. Thailand could use its leadership responsibility to strengthen border control and facilitate the GMS’s use of information sharing and prevent trafficking routes from being destroyed more than displaced.

She noted that while there is also a need to prevent illicit drugs from entering the area, there is also a need for humanitarian medication treatment, long-term prevention initiatives, and raising awareness.

” The key is to follow a sensible approach to protect people’s health and well-being while completely respecting their individual rights,” she continued.

She said the UNODC has been working with Thailand to strengthen drug treatments as well as HIV prevention, treatment, and treatment, including a move away from forced treatment methods.

However, there is still a lot of work to be done in the area to protect the rights of those who use illegal substances.

People may exercise their personal free will in the treatment of their own. We must reduce the number of people who are currently serving jail sentences for minor drug offenses, and we will continue to collaborate with Thailand and our companions on these issues,” she said.

Cyber acts grow

During the Covid-19 crisis, international crime expanded to include online frauds and illegal online games. According to Ms. Waly, the pandemic led to organized crime organizations to shift their focus away from cybersecurity.

People all over the world are at risk of attacks and virtual frauds, she said, and the risk of people becoming victims of human trafficking is rising because they are forced to take part in these crimes.

She continued,” Crooks from around the world rely on the country’s underground banking and illegal betting system for wealth laundering.”

There was a need for more cooperation between the regional justice devices.

“UNOD C is working with Thailand and other countries to enhance criminal knowledge analysis and information-sharing, as well as to improve rules, regulations, and guidelines. We are even providing targeted capacity-building on crime, money laundering and mortal trafficking”, she added.

Transnational organized crime organizations make use of legitimate blunders to create new online offences that can be quickly expanded to include people all over the world.

UNODC has been assisting governments around the world in identifying the spaces that prevent them from responding. Additionally, the UNODC has increased complex investigation and raised awareness of sophisticated cybercrimes.

The company also has brought together officers, lawyers, judges, and officials from several places to form network and prevent criminals from changing jurisdictions to prevent justice.

The UNODC has been pleased to support the creation of a new UN convention to combat cybercrime. Next year’s signing ceremony for the treaty will take place in Hanoi, and we will begin providing countries with technical assistance in putting it into practice, she said.

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