Better coverage, but exploited for crime? Southeast Asia confronts Starlink internet dilemma

CAUTION IN INDONESIA 

Indonesia faces similar issues. 
 
About a-fifth of the population in the vast archipelago lacks adequate internet access, according to the Indonesian Internet Service Providers Association.  
 
But while the Indonesian government welcomed Starlink to the country and granted business licences in May last year, analysts say it remains wary about allowing the company to fill the gaps. 
 
It is currently unclear how many Starlink devices are operational in Indonesia and the company’s initial investment was modest at US$1.8 million. 
 
Still, with Musk in attendance, Starlink launched with fanfare in Bali with a project to connect medical centres to fast internet service. In at least one centre though, the service was disabled shortly after due to an apparent unstable connection. 
 
There is pressure from traditional telecom companies on the government to ensure the playing field is even after decades of investing in an infrastructure network that could be made redundant by Musk’s satellites, said Karl Gading Sayudha, an analyst who focuses on defence, security and international relations at Kiroyan Partners, a Jakarta-based consulting firm. 
 
“These telecommunication providers have invested billions of rupiah. So they are questioning the government’s effort and government’s responsibility to make sure that this will be a fair game,” he said.

“They are asking for the government to regulate this before it goes too far.” 
 
The Indonesian Internet Service Provider Association urged the government in the middle of last year to freeze Starlink’s licence, because it had “the potential to disrupt the sustainability and independence of the local ISP industry”, said its chairman, Muhammad Arif Angg. 
 
Telkom, Indonesia’s state-owned telecom giant, and the Indonesian Telecommunications Providers Association have also called for a level playing field in terms of regulations. 
 
Starlink “may appear aggressive” to these companies, causing them to feel insecure about how Starlink might expand, said Darynaufal Mulyaman, a lecturer at the International Relations Study Programme at Universitas Kristen Indonesia.
 
“Because on paper, it’s a really unbalanced competition,” he said, noting that Starlink has minimal local staffing and does not contribute to Indonesia’s territorial network infrastructure.  

The cost of Starlink remains high, however, and this is an obstacle to widespread adoption. Its residential package starts at 750,000 rupiah (US$45) per month, putting it only within the grasp of higher income earners. That is about double the cost of a local operator, not including installation costs. 
 
But as has occurred in other countries, the Starlink price could quickly drop as more users sign up.  
 
It also has plans sometime this year to offer mobile plans, which if permitted, would put the company in direct competition with other telecom providers for a lucrative market of hundreds of millions of customers. 
 
Its prices are far cheaper than other satellite internet providers, which prompted complaints from the Indonesia Satellite Association, which labelled Starlink’s offers “predatory”. The country’s anti-monopoly watchdog ruled last year that they were promotional, not unfair. 

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Charges imminent in Bangkok building collapse

As the research is advancing, at least five designers and audit personnel are anticipated to be summoned.

Excavators were mobilised at the collpase site in Chatuchak district, Bangkok, on April 3, a few days after the collapse on March 28. Pattarapong Chatpattarasill
A few days after the decline on March 28th, excavators were dispatched to the Chatuchak city of Bangkok’s Chatuchak district on April 3. Chatpattarasill Pattarapong Chatpatpatrang

Police are preparing to indict engineers and state audit officials for their roles in the March 28 earthquake-related collapse of Bangkok’s State Audit Office ( SAO ) building.

More than 100 witnesses have been interrogated, according to a source from the Metropolitan Police Bureau ( MPB) on Wednesday, and the investigation is now about 80 % complete.

As part of the research, witnesses, SAO leaders, the people of those who died or were hurt at the site, as well as businesses involved in the building’s design, gave testimony.

These findings will be combined with reviews based on practical samples, reports from the landscape, and criminal officers and experts will examine reports based on evidence from the field.

The 30-story SAO office was the only high-rise framework to decline on March 28 after a Myanmar-centered earthquake shaken the Thai funds. 13 people are also missing, compared to the 81 body found this week, according to searchers.

At least five people are expected to face expenses, including some who were recently interviewed as witnesses, according to the police source as the situation progresses.

Professionals are among those who are suspected of neglect under Section 227 of the Criminal Code, which forbids those in the job from upholding proper standards while performing structure, and Section 238 if such negligence led to casualties.

Audit staff members may be accused, the source said, but on distinct grounds of wrongdoing.

A model for gathering information at the collapse site in the Chatuchak district is currently being discussed by officials from several organizations. The Metropolitan Administration’s ( BMA ) Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Division, Department of Public Works and Town &, Country Planning Division, Department of Special Investigation Division, Police, and forensic units are just a few examples.

The SAO is currently being prepared to hand over the site of the fell building, according to Suriyachai Rawiwan, chairman of the BMA Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation.

He claimed that that would have to occur after the search and rescue operations have finished, and a decision needs to be made regarding the location of the information to hold after the decline.

In a related development, Phumtham Wechayachai, the minister of defense, stated at a Wednesday anti-graft workshop that it is difficult to find solutions to problems with building materials. He continued, “everyone may be brought to justice,” and it is the administration’s job to expose the truth.

Two people portraying mule accounts greet Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai, right, at an exhibition on addressing corruption, at the Impact Exhibition and Convention Centre on Wednesday. CHANAT KATANYU

At an event on the topic of corruption that took place on Wednesday at the Impact Exhibition and Convention Center, two “mule records” were greeted by Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai. ( Photo: Chanat Katanyu )

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Resolution 68: real reform or elite buffer in Vietnam? – Asia Times

Some Asian businesspeople have praised the Vietnamese Communist Party’s statement of Resolution 68 as a significant step toward ensuring good competition, ensuring good competition, and codifying lawful precepts.

Crucially, those constitutional changes include a ban on voluntary law enforcement, a preference for legal remedies over criminal penalties, and the presumption of innocence. All of these are essential to the operation of a current market supported by the rule of law.

But beneath that business enthusiasm lies a crucial question: Is this a headless, pretended-to-be-real liberation for all secret business, or is it merely a headless, Marxist Party-connected, and wealthy?

Resolution 68, which was announced earlier this month, did not emerge in a womb. The” Views on Promoting Development and Growth of the Private Economy” were released by the Chinese Communist Party and the State Council in July 2023.

That statement was made at a gentle time when China’s financial engines were slipping under the weight. After massive reprisals on large, privately held tech firms like Alibaba, firm confidence had deteriorated.

The Taiwanese government changed its position, highlighting the significance of the private sector to the region’s push for development, after acknowledging that a stifling regulatory burden and social uncertainty were stifling private-sector dynamism.

China’s record from 2023 aimed to rekindle confidence and stability, but it also signaled that the Communist Party was attempting to maintain a strong hold on the market.

By 2025, Vietnam’s monetary flood had also changed. Nguyen Phu Trong’s dying in 2024 and To Lam To Party’s arrival marked a significant shift in Vietnam’s management structure and outlook.

However, Vietnam’s private sector expanded rapidly but faced long-standing challenges, including limited resources, legal uncertainty, and fragile business confidence, partly as a result of the government’s crackdown on supposedly corrupt politicians and businesses.

Foreign literature

Resolution 68 draws heavily from China’s handbook, praises the importance of the private sector, and offers a more business-friendly culture. However, Vietnam’s version goes yet further, promising a stronger legitimate weapon than China’s.

Article 11 of China’s 2023 report makes explicit recommendations for preventing inside corruption and makes acts like misappropriation and bribery illegal. Additionally, it highlights efforts to improve Party operations in private companies and confirms the premise that all companies must operate in accordance with Party principles.

In addition, Vietnam’s Resolution 68 urges private firms to uphold business ethics, morality, and social responsibility. However, in Vietnam, corruption is seen as a two-way road, and it is imperative that people officials stop extorting and destroying private companies.

In this double messaging, the state is both an enforcer and a partner, aiming to promote both a private-led growth and a regulatory framework. The main issue between the two guidelines, however, is how they handle legal challenges.

China’s record promises to stop unnecessary interference with business during legal proceedings. It emphasizes “protecting the property rights and interests of private companies and businesses in accordance with the law” and vows to stop overreach through broad property freezes or arbitrary protection.

However, it falls short of removing the possibility of legal trial. Owing process and proportionality are important, but legal liability persists when determined.

The Vietnami Resolution 68 is more ambitious. Part 2.3 states:

  • Civil, financial, and managerial measures should be used to address both civil and economic violations.
  • Legal actions should be totally avoided where the law permits both legal and non-criminal management.
  • Remediation should be prioritized and seriously weighed in lawful decisions, even when prosecution is required.
  • It is against the law to engage in voluntary business injury.
  • And the idea of ignorance is vehemently promoted.

This is not a gentle shifting. Vietnam’s record not only tries to minimize legitimate disturbance, but it also makes criminal sanctions a last resort even in situations where legal results are uncertain.

Transformation for whom?

These principles appear to be in line with international standards for consistency and proportion. A good legal method emphasizes civil rights and the protection of the presumption of innocence.

However, Vietnam’s political-business climate muddies the lakes. In an atmosphere also fueled by wealthy record and favoritism, these legal protections may still offer concern and better protection to effective state or state-linked conglomerates. Even if these reforms lead to a more level playing field for small and medium enterprises.

The new constitutional shield may eventually remain out of reach for many businesses unless you are one of the key players with political connections.

Moreover, overprotecting big businesses presents systemic risks. Protecting these businesses from total legal scrutiny creates moral hazard, or worse. If these megacorporations fail, the condition could be forced to participate in cheap bailouts, destabilizing the entire economic system in a” also big to fail” scenario.

Vietnam, one of the top” China 1″ destinations for global manufacturers, is already attracting international investors ‘ attention for its commitment to stability and predictability.

Resolution 68’s pro-business claims may lessen worries for home businesses, but international investors, especially those who are conscious of China’s decades-long trend, may remain closely monitoring how it’s carried out. Even if the outlook for short-term mood improves, any overt defence of aristocracy interests may undermine confidence in Vietnam’s long-term legal standing.

By any standard, Resolution 68 is a brave decision. It promises to reduce bureaucracy, guard home rights, and modify the legal system in ways that are more suitable for contemporary Vietnam.

However, Vietnam’s solid pro-business stance raises an obvious question: Is this the start of real legitimate reform or is it just a cunning way to protect the connected while appearing present and pro-business to the outside world?

Vietnam’s entrepreneurs and foreign observers should tread carefully when predicting whether this most recent wave of reforms actually level the playing field or just strengthen the system’s existing ones and hierarchies.

Leo Tran writes about global strategy, trade, and international affairs. His writing has appeared in The Diplomat, Kyiv Post, and Modern Diplomacy. He also writes for Vietnam Decoded.

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PM Wong congratulates new German chancellor Friedrich Merz

Singapore’s Prime Minister, Lawrence Wong, thanked incoming German chancellor Olaf Scholz for his efforts to strengthen ties between the two nations on Tuesday ( May 6 ) and congratulated Mr. Merz on his victory in the election. &nbsp,

After unavoidably failing to secure a majority in the first round of voting, Mr. Merz was elected president by congress on Tuesday. &nbsp,

Mr. Wong expressed his “warmest congratulations” to Mr. Merz in a text to the approaching governor, noting that the two nations shared a “deep and lasting friendship, supported by common trust, and varied assistance.”

This time, Singapore and Germany honor their 60th political partnership. Last November, the two nations furthermore strengthened their bilateral ties to form a proper partnership. &nbsp,

According to Mr. Wong,” This association strengthens existing economic and security assistance while giving us new vigor to work together in new fields like digitalization/AI, research, startups and innovation, fresh energy and sustainable advancement.”

Singapore and Germany “also have a shared commitment to upholding global rules, open industry, and a rules-based world order. We work closely with bilateral fora in this regard,” he continued. &nbsp,

The prime minister also expressed his satisfaction with Germany’s growing involvement in the Asia-Pacific area.

He noted that there are more than 2,300 European businesses in Singapore, with many of them utilizing Singapore as their gate to ASEAN and the wider area.

According to Mr. Wong,” I look forward to continuing to strengthen our ties, including by utilizing the EU-Singapore Free Trade Agreement and the EU-Singapore Digital Trade Agreement.” &nbsp,

He continued,” Without further enlarging, strengthening, and deepening relationships between our two places,” adding that he hoped to work with Mr. Merz.

He continued,” I even wish you all the best as you take on the chancellor and look forward to meeting you immediately.” &nbsp,

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Trump’s speech at Tokyo press club 32 years ago proved prophetic – Asia Times

Donald Trump, the US president, announced a plan of reciprocal taxes in April, claiming that Americans had been taken advantage of by” fakers” and “pillaged” by foreigners. Since then, property markets around the world have plummeted, and worry has spread that Trump’s techniques will cause a slowdown that risks bringing down the structure of business that has been in place since the end of World War II.

The Financial Times and the&nbsp soon caused a strong reaction, with the&nbsp calling Trump’s actions “utter insanity” and” an act of war against the entire world.” Trump is now regarded as one of the world’s most overbearing and uncertain officials.

The library of the Foreign Correspondents ‘ Club of Japan contains a beautiful lighthouse that puts lighting on Trump’s unexpected behavior. This is an audio recording of Trump, who traveled to Japan 32 centuries ago as a business but not as a politician.

Trump attended a media luncheon at the FCCJ on August 18, 1993, while visiting Tokyo, which was the Yurakucho Denki Building at the time. He was in the method of discussing different business enterprises such as real property and games, but instantly changed the subject to the business disparity between Japan and the United States. In his opinion, “morons” had been used to represent America during past US-Japan business negotiations. He stated:

I think the Chinese diplomats have done one of the wonderful tap-tap-taps always. That’s kicking off the conversation, giving absolutely nothing, and making the American idiots say,” Thank you.”

The US was demanding the beginning of industries like cars, electronics, and supercomputers because the country had a significant trade imbalance with Japan at the time. Dissatisfied with the gradual development of the conversations, Trump singled out Carla Hills, &nbsp, the US deal agent under President George HW Bush, for condemnation:

Carla Hills said that we must realize that it takes time, but it really doesn’t take time when I look at the job that she did. It doesn’t take much time at all. Free business doesn’t get day. You can’t relax for four or eight years without experiencing free deal.

He continued:

The Chinese friends I’ve seen over the last few times– and they’re really great friends – they themselves grin at the foolishness of my state. They laugh because they all recognize what I ‘m&nbsp, right? They claim I’m correct, but they’re correct.

There was a portentousness to Trump’s notes. &nbsp,

On September 2, 1987, Trump had published an open letter in big American publications, including the New York Times&nbsp, and the Washington Post, six years prior to his press conference in Tokyo. The email sharply criticized Japan and other countries for taking advantage of the US over the previous years:

As we defend the Persian Gulf, an area of only marginal value for the United States ‘ crude materials but on which Japan and other countries are almost entirely dependent, the story continues unabated. Why don’t these countries compensate the United States for the billions of dollars we are losing to protect their and their passions?

The earth is laughing at America’s officials as we protect boats we don’t possess, carrying petrol we don’t want, destined for allies who didn’t help.

From this viewpoint, we can see that Trump’s view was developed in the late 1980s or early 1990s, and that the speech he uses currently has no significantly altered. In other words, he is also residing in the world of 1993. &nbsp,

Trump’s rage toward the US government for no quickly resolving Japan’s enormous trade deficit with the US, at a time when Japan was the second-largest economy in the world, can be attributed to his position. And Trump’s intention was to use the mutual tariffs to combat the business imbalance, which he announced last month. &nbsp,

The impact of 1993 is what is crucial here.

The Berlin Wall fell only four years prior, tearing down the Iron Curtain that had divided Europe since World War II. In December 1991, the Soviet Union had collapsed. After being defeated, communism was suddenly over, and it could be anticipated that Western-style democracy and capitalism would soon become practiced everywhere. Americans had a sense of hope and awe among others.

Unfortunately, Trump was confronting several challenges to his organizations at the time.

Trump had expanded his business empire into hotels, games, and an airport in the 1980s, but he ended up with enormous bills. One of those businesses, Trump Shuttle, operated a flight that connected Boston to New York, Washington, DC, and Washington, DC. But, after Iraq’s Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in August 1990, gas prices surged and customer need dropped, while expenses of running an aircraft soared. Trump later sold it to a rival.

He told investigators at the FCCJ,” This is what I’m doing.

I was unhappy in going into a really horrible company, something called the flight business. Have any of you worked for an flight? I’ll show you that this is the worst company ever.

President Bush marshaled the US-led foreign troops, attacking Iraq and effectively free Kuwait. Trump, however, referred to the first Gulf War as a” shame”:

Nothing is aware of the true cost that the United States incurred during this conflict. Anyone knows. And we received no fair compensation for it. And we were dumb.

Ironically, Trump has agreed on a package with Ukraine for its material assets, which he described as payment for military support the&nbsp, US&nbsp, had provided to Kyiv since Russia launched its full-scale war in February 2022. Given the trauma and significant harm the Gulf War had caused to Trump’s organization, it may seem like a crazy idea at first glance. However, it is natural.

Another crucial factor in knowing Trump was fidelity, which was revealed at the FCCJ press event. He looked up on the day when his company struggled in the 1990s, and compared it to battle:

When you engage in a battle, you learn stuff about who is dedicated and who is not. You discover who your friends are, but the truth is that you can’t really tell. I wish I may say that anyone with golden locks or black hair or black skin or mild skin was devoted. But that’s just how it works. People I would have bet the ranch on ruined my life, please excuse me for the phrase.

He added:

I say that I’d like to be in trouble at some point in my life so that I can determine who will be loyal and who will not be. You do learn a lot about loyalty, I suppose. And I think it’s a very important word.

Trump has kept his word and appointed people to cabinet positions based on their loyalty. Additionally, he demands that anyone who wants to work for the government be given loyalty checks. To Trump, loyalty is everything.

Loyalty may be the answer to everything, but irony was in his circumstances. Investors in Hong Kong and Japan were the people who fervently backed Trump when he was trying to get out of a difficult business situation. At the FCCJ, he said this about his supporters:

Both Japan and Hong Kong make up our largest customer base. And I just want to thank so many of them for sticking with me. They did buy my&nbsp, products. They did visit my casino and, perhaps most importantly, negotiate deals with me on casino bonds.

Yet Trump made the announcement to impose reciprocal tariffs on Japan, one of his main supporters, last month. Unfortunately, it appears that those who were loyal to Trump were not treated with reciprocation.

We have a lot of insight from Trump’s Tokyo press conference 32 years ago, as well as the principles that govern his behavior. In terms of foreign affairs, defense, the economy, and personnel, those remarks remain completely consistent with his current actions and policies. They might even be said to have been prophetic. In that regard, Trump’s words and actions have always been consistent. &nbsp,

His speech contained only one remark that could be regarded as contradictory. If Trump had continued to follow his words with the same conviction, he might have altered both the history of the United States and the world as well.

He stated to his Tokyo audience,” I’m not running for office. &nbsp, Who cares if I’m politically correct”?

Writer Eiichiro Tokumoto was born and raised in Tokyo.

The FCCJ’s Number 1 Shimbun published this article at the beginning. It is republished with permission, updated to reflect the fact that the Ukraine minerals deal has been agreed upon.

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Energy minister’s shareholding under microscope

According to activists, the PM may face trouble as a result of requests from the Election Commission to look into.

Energy Minister Pirapan Salirathavibhaga speaks during a parliament session on Sept 12, 2023. (Photo: Chanat Katanyu)
Energy Minister Pirapan Salirathavibhaga addresses a session of the parliament on September 12, 2023. ( Photo: Chanat Katanyu )

Sonthiya Sawasdee, a political activist, has requested that Energy Minister Pirapan Salirathavibhaga check shareholdings in four businesses.

Mr. Sonthiya urged the committee on Tuesday to look into whether the minister’s reported keeping of the shares violated the constitution and the 2018 natural law governing the election of members of parliament.

He provided further evidence to back up his assertions.

Mr. Sonthiya had previously filed a petition with the National Anti-Corruption Commission ( NACC), alleging that Mr. Pirapan had been profiting from the four businesses despite having given his shares to a legal entity managing assets on his behalf.

Mr. Sonthiya said on Tuesday,” If Mr. Pirapan is convinced he doesn’t hold shares in the four organizations as accused, he had come forward to ensure his innocence.”

He added that he would also write to Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra to request that an analysis be launched into the alleged wrongdoing.

Mr. Sonthiya warned that the PM could face being found guilty of violating the contract if the leading didn’t respond properly.

Ms. Paetongtarn has expressed confidence that Mr. Pirapan’s suitability for government ministership was thoroughly checked prior to his appointment.

Mr. Pirapan is also having difficulty on other sides, including allegations of followers bullying him online.

“fan basic” intended to intimidate and distinguish users of websites with opposing political viewpoints

Social commentator Anthitchan Kuharuengrong wrote a letter to congress on Tuesday asking whether Mr. Pirapan had any influence in creating an online “fan center” to intimidate those with opposing political views. That may necessitate an honest investigation, he said.

According to the investigative media store Isra News, the minister was previously accused of breaking the law by embolssing the minister’s label on pleasure bags given to hazard patients in southern Thailand in December.

According to reports, another position business produced the luggage. Whether or not Mr. Pirapan’s claim of having a role in their distribution is against ethical standards for political office buyers is unfounded.

Mr. Pirapan claimed on Tuesday that the NACC had never called him in to speak inquiries about the comfort bags or his shares.

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Thoughts on Sinofuturism – Asia Times

The majority of the conversations I hear about China these time revolve around US-China contest or the issue of whether China’s economy will be the dominant force ( my response:” Yes, because it’s really great. But there’s another burden of conversation that’s kind of fascinating, which is whether China is the” Country of the Future” in terms of technology and urbanization.

These discussions, in my opinion, are typically quite vague and perplexing, moving between layout, transportation, consumer systems, manufacturing systems, art, pop culture, soft energy, urban design, and a number of other subjects. That doesn’t mean I think the topic is stupid, &nbsp, vague and confused conversations can be fun! But I thought I’d try to think about Sinofuturism a little more consistently.

As far as I can tell, the recent explosion of Sinofuturism appears to have come from four major options:

  • China’s fresh high-tech business model
  • The real estate bubble in China left a legacy
  • A beauty offensive by China
  • The election of Donald Trump

The monetary unit that had fueled China’s economic progress since 2008 almost completely failed in the early 2020s. &nbsp, This model&nbsp, was based on large real estate investment — the biggest growth growth in the history of the world. Local governments generally approved and supported any advancement that may increase the value of property because real estate sales were funded by local governments.

However, the Chinese central authorities encouraged banks to lend to designers as a way of sustaining the macroeconomy through a series of surprises. This consistently led to an future economic bubble and crash when the loans used to finance this extraordinary development boom outran the ability of real estate to make financial returns. In 2021-23, there was a significant knock, and development slowed.

China’s administration responded to this downturn by&nbsp, going all-in on high-tech production. The nation’s lenders poured enormous sums of money into industries like cars, electronics, machine tools, robots, electronics, batteries, plane, and many others at Xi Jinping’s urging.

The government&nbsp, supported the bubble with subsidies&nbsp, when well, though I think we often tend to exaggerate its position relative to the personal initiative of corporations like BYD, Xiaomi, and DJI. That financing increase has since cooled off a little, but it was massive during 2021-23, and business loans continue to grow at a very fast clip:

Origin: Bloomberg via Noahopinion, &nbsp

All that financing fueled a flood of investment in the “technologies of the future”. Many of those were  production  technology in the highly integrated Chinese companies that you can see in movies like this one:

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And some are &nbsp, consumption&nbsp, systems, like the high-speed road network that’s bigger than all the sites in the rest of the world combined:

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This technology boom won’t be enough to bring the nation back to pre-Covid development levels. 1&nbsp, But it has transformed Chinese cities, filling them with modern thing like&nbsp, delivery drones, &nbsp, drone shows, &nbsp, delivery robots, &nbsp, air taxis, high-speed trains, face-recognition payment systems, &nbsp, energy cars&nbsp, with expensive screens in, &nbsp, skyscraper-building machines, and so on.

The rollouts of these technologies faster and more widely than in developed countries, where issues like noise complaints and safety concerns predominate. China ‘s , lax regulatory climate  is partly a result of cozy relations between local government and corporations.

The electronics manufacturing boom ( which actually predates the more recent high-tech push ) has also resulted in a glut of cheap LEDs, which many Chinese developers have plastered all over their high-rise buildings and malls.

This might be partly cultural and aesthetic, but it’s largely&nbsp, an attempt by cities and companies&nbsp, to advertise themselves to businesses and consumers both at home and overseas. Videos of these” cyberpunk” nighttime cityscapes have proliferated on the internet:

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The second big reason for the boom in Sinofuturism is a government charm offensive.

A number of aggressive Chinese actions in the late 2010s and early 2020s, including the claim of the South China Sea and pieces of Indian territory, the rise of “wolf warrior” diplomats, and China’s soft support for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, all contributed to a rise in the negative perceptions of China around the world, both in developed and developing nations. This probably contributed to a&nbsp, massive exodus of foreign capital&nbsp, from the country, as multinational corporations scrambled to diversify and de-risk themselves.

China’s government&nbsp, has responded&nbsp, with a series of” charm offensives” to increase the country’s” soft power” around the world. China is a positive force in the global economy, promoting free trade, battling climate change, spreading high technology, and providing infrastructure investment to developing countries, among other things. And part of the message is that China is the country of the future — a technological and economic powerhouse whose rise is inevitable and should be admired rather than resisted.

This charm offensive is now gaining traction thanks to a flood of Western influencers ‘ pro-China content. Fewer foreigners are &nbsp, living in China, and the number of tourists visiting the country has &nbsp, returned to near its pre-pandemic level.

Yet there has been a massive proliferation of videos, mostly by foreigners, saying” I visited China, and it wasn’t what I expected at all”!, or” I visited China, and America is COOKED”! Here are a few illustrations:

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The most famous of these, by far, is the recent series of videos by the popular internet personality Darren Watkins, better known as iShowSpeed:

YouTube video

]embedded information]

Is it clear whether these people are paid by the Chinese government to produce videos that support a Sinofuturist narrative? In fact, some are, especially the ones made by Western expats living in China. The New York Times&nbsp, reported on this phenomenon&nbsp, back in 2021:

The vibe of the videos is homespun and casual. But on the other side of the camera often stands a large apparatus of government organizers, state-controlled news media and other official amplifiers…State-run news outlets and local governments have organized and funded pro-Beijing influencers ‘ travel, according to government documents and the creators themselves. They have offered or paid the creators. They have generated lucrative traffic for the influencers by sharing videos with millions of followers on YouTube, Twitter and Facebook…With official media outlets ‘ backing, the creators can visit and film in parts of China where the authorities have &nbsp, obstructed foreign journalists ‘ reporting.

In addition, it’s possible that China is using its control of the TikTok algorithm to promote videos like this — or, more likely, that would-be influencers hoping to go viral simply&nbsp, think&nbsp, TikTok will promote them if they spout a bunch of wide-eyed Sinofuturism.

However, it is highly unlikely that government propaganda will explain all, or even the majority of the rise in Sinofuturist videos. 2&nbsp, It’s likely that these videos are just a meme, much like travel to Japan became a meme in the 2010s.

China’s big tech push makes sense, since all those futuristic cars, robots, and drones give foreigners more to fawn over. But the sudden perception of China as the” country of the future” probably owes even more to the property and infrastructure booms that just ended.

Neither the forests of LED-covered skyscrapers, nor the endless miles of high-speed rail, nor the vast shiny new malls that dot China’s city centers would exist if China’s banks hadn’t gone on the mother of all lending binges after 2008. Although drones and robots are cool, travelers ‘ perceptions of any country are predominated by the built environment:

Photo by&nbsp, Di Weng&nbsp, on&nbsp, Unsplash
Photo by Min Zi LRC via Wikimedia Commons

In other words, China’s real estate era may have ended in tears for some developers and local governments, but it left behind the physical edifice of a very futuristic-looking country. When people go to China and see the future, what they’re really seeing is the country’s recent past.

The election of Trump and the political repercussions that followed are the tailwind for Sinofuturism. Trump has very loudly and flamboyantly&nbsp, turned America against Europe&nbsp, — bashing European countries in his rhetoric, hitting them with tariffs and tariff threats, threatening to pull out of NATO, supporting right-wing opposition parties, cozying up to Russia, and so on.

A few European leaders have responded by&nbsp, trying to get closer to China instead, but the majority are still too cautious of the CCP. But European&nbsp, intellectuals&nbsp, are a different story. Some European thinkers resent the smug American superiority that resulted from decades of Cold War patronage, and are overjoyed to see America eclipsed. That geopolitical backdrop easily alters people’s perceptions of a nation, making even the most illiterate seem sublime.

In turbulent and troubling times, people instinctively grasp for some sort of future to believe in — some positive vision to hold on to. America continues to inflict wound after wound on itself due to its intractable cultural and partisan divisions, while Europe is mired in economic stagnation and is struggling to defend itself against a much smaller, poorer Russia right now don’t have much of a futuristic vision.

Sinofuturism might not have been Western intellectuals ‘ first choice for an alternative, but if it’s a choice between Sinofuturism and bleak nihilism/pessimism, some will choose the former. But what will this Chinese future actually look like, two decades or four decades from now? There is, in my opinion, more than meets the eye here.

First, let’s talk about Chinese urbanism. Westerners who visit Asia and witness a lot of tall buildings and electric signs frequently mistakenly believe that every Asian city is essentially the same. But the way China builds its cities is very different from how Japan does it.

Japan’s cities are hyper-agglomerations of dense&nbsp, mixed-use neighborhoods&nbsp, packed with&nbsp, small businesses. Much more urban sprawl can be found in China. Here’s what&nbsp, Peter Calthorpe wrote&nbsp, in 2016, when China was still in the middle of its massive building spree:

Many Chinese cities have high-rise, high-density buildings that one might assume are inherently urban, but they are not. Smart growth and urbanism is more about connections, human scale, walkability, and mixed uses than it is about gross density. China’s pattern of gated superblocks ( often over 40 acres, or 16 hectares, each ) and isolated uses is actually a high-rise version of the American suburb…

Superblocks surrounded by major arterial roads are used to create the largest clusters of single-use residential blocks in China. Vast distances separate everyday destinations and create environments hostile to pedestrians. Crossing the street without dying is a common practice in sidewalks. Job centers are distant and commutes are long, especially for lower-income groups. In major Chinese cities, the gridlock expands to all hours of the day…

China has built more than 30 000 kilometers of expressways over the past five years. [ Like the US cities of the 1950s and 1960s, Chinese cities are working to accommodate the explosive growth of automobile travel by adding more highways, ring roads, and parking lots.

And here ‘s&nbsp, how Dwarkesh Patel put it&nbsp, after a recent trip:

Outside of Beijing and Shanghai, you can tell that these skyscrapers were constructed by a nation with a GDP per capita of$ 10, 000. These endless rows of skyscrapers are ugly: boxes of mostly concrete with visible blight and discoloration all over. If the great construction binge is indeed over, it’ll be a shame that China’s infrastructure was built out during a period of particularly uninspired architecture…The city is dominated by these enormous apartment complexes – blocks of 10 adjacent 30-story buildings demarcated by 8-lane roads…This layout seems designed partly for social control.

A recent article&nbsp, by the ever-excellent Alfred Twu explains China’s urban layout in more detail:

Despite their stark visual dissimilarities, new construction in China and the US each have a single, essential trait: they both support roughly the same population density and have comparable floor plans.

… In contrast to the mid-rises that abound in US cities today, Chinese cities favor what is known as the 小区 ( xiaoqu ) &nbsp, or microdistrict. These residential towers, which are set in a park style, are scattered throughout 15 to 20 acres of wide arterial roads. [X ] iaoqus&nbsp are constructed as gated communities. While primarily residential, the microdistricts also provide stores and services for residents, including schools…However, they do not contain offices or industry, and retail is limited to neighborhood-serving services, such as convenience stores and restaurants…

The sunlight requirement results in large spaces between buildings, limiting the floor area ratio to around 2.0 to 4.0, even for high-rises…closer to 2.0 than to 4.0 once internal roads are factored in…]T] hese buildings are unique to the People’s Republic.

Twu points out that China could theoretically transform its cities into something denser, more mixed-use, and more walkable, like Tokyo, Hong Kong, or Singapore because this urban form is the result of regulation rather than culture, 3&nbsp. But since the big real estate boom is over, the financing or political will for such redevelopment is unlikely to appear. China has already established itself. And even more than the US, China has built itself into a highly suboptimal configuration.

America’s sprawling suburbs are the target of much derision from urbanists worldwide, but they have a charm that’s all their own — huge luxurious houses serve as social gathering places, cars provide mobility, lawns and parks provide the illusion of living close to nature.

Americans of all races and social classes still want to move to the “burbs” ( and are actually moving there ) and that lifestyle has a magnetic pull. And this pull is worldwide — newly developed outlying areas of Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and everywhere else look a lot more like American suburbs than they look like Tokyo or Paris. Whether or not, the urban future that predominated in the 20th century was created in America.

But China will not do the same. Who wants to live in a xiaoqu? You reside in a smallish apartment like you would in a city like New York or Tokyo, but you’re in a gated neighborhood and not close to some of the world’s most vibrant shopping and entertainment districts.

The only things close to you are a sanitized communal lawn and a couple of boring stores for basic necessities. To get anywhere remotely interesting, which in China typically just means a shopping mall, you must either take your car or walk long distances over enormous arterial roads to a train station. You get all of the isolation of the American suburbs with none of the luxury. You’re basically in&nbsp, Cabrini-Green&nbsp, but without the crime.

I have a feeling that very few people around the world will want to reside in microdistricts of Chinese style. And I suspect that in twenty years or so, the children of the current Chinese generation will see this urban form as sterile, cramped, and confining. Except that it will be very challenging to recreate Chinese cities using the American or Japanese models.

As for the spectacular beauty of Chinese downtowns, I suspect that Chinese people themselves are going to get tired of the light pollution that wows the tourists. Already, residents of&nbsp, Shanghai, &nbsp, Chongqing, and other cities have &nbsp, begun to express a preference&nbsp, for fewer gratuitous displays of garish illumination.

There will undoubtedly be many interesting structures left behind by China’s boom in the construction industry. But because the boom was driven by overabundant capital, many of these designs were created more as advertisements for the developers than as places that are actually nice to walk around in. 4.

And the buildings themselves won’t always look as nice as they do now, either. I’m no&nbsp, Brian Potter, but even I know that over the course of about thirty or forty years, reinforced concrete tends to weather, crack, and spall. The majority of China’s urban areas are very humid, and pollution levels are still a high level. As a result, many of the nice new constructions of the country’s buildings, the majority of which were constructed in the last 20 years, will suffer. Buildings that turn out to have been built with substandard materials— and there are &nbsp, some of those out there&nbsp, — will go downhill earlier.

China will then have to choose between paying for repairs and redevelopment to maintain city sturdiness, or repairing and painting outdated buildings to save money. Japan actually chooses the former, which is why it still looks nice — but this eternal construction and beautification costs a&nbsp, lot&nbsp, of society’s resources. Hong Kong and Taiwan have chosen the latter, and as a result, people gush a lot less about the built environment when they visit those cities these days.

I’m aware that visiting a foreign city, admiring the buildings, and making broad conclusions about how strong civilizations will be over the next 2,000 years are all enjoyable. But next time you find yourself gaping at a sparkling new high-rise in Shenzhen or Chongqing or Dubai, remind yourself:” This too shall pass” .5

China has yet to truly transform global culture, which is a crucial component of soft power. Their censorship regime — an inescapable part of their authoritarian system — is constantly hamstringing or deterring Chinese creatives. As China gets richer, its people will spend more on entertainment, and entertainment industries will emerge. However, I believe that this censorship will prevent the creation of truly original and original works of art as well as of innovative new forms of popular entertainment.

20th century America invented 3D animated children’s movies and third-person action-adventure video games, China’s two most celebrated hit cultural products over the past few years have been&nbsp, a 3D animated children’s movie&nbsp, and&nbsp, a third-person action-adventure video game. And yet, the appeal to the world has been elusive. Sinofuturists who trumpeted the fact that Ne Zha 2 grossed more at the box office than any Disney film, neglected to mention that more than 98 % of that money was made inside China.

As for China ‘s&nbsp, technological&nbsp, futurism, there I have more confidence. China’s mastery of the core technologies of the electrical age — batteries and motors — will continue to produce wonders, especially because America has &nbsp, voluntarily forfeited leadership&nbsp, in these technologies for cultural reasons.

Personal air taxis, ultra-fast car chargers, and humanoid robots that can do flips are not the last whiz-bang gadgets you’ll see coming out of China. Nor will China’s innovation be limited to the electrical sphere. The future has never looked more promising for Chinese scientific supremacy due to China’s extensive research spending spree, along with Trump’s extensive cuts to American funding.

But here, too, I would be cautious about projecting out more than a decade or two. To the degree that scientific progress relies on human capital, China is going to start&nbsp, having a tough time&nbsp, in the late 2040s. The population will continue to decline unabated after the large” Alpha” generation works its way through the system:

Adapted from Tweedle –&nbsp, Own work

AI researchers may eventually take over from humans, but China’s fundamental advantage, which is its extraordinarily large number of highly skilled engineers and scientists, starts to lose importance.

Also, much of China’s technological leadership has a darker side. All the tourists love the electric cars and the high-speed trains. However, China is also the world’s leader in electronic surveillance, making it virtually impossible for them to turn their entire nation into a panopticon.

China uses the internet to repress dissent, and AI will make that task easier. I anticipate that AI will make that&nbsp much easier because China’s government has also shown an eagerness to use the internet to spread dissension and&nbsp, stir up hatred&nbsp, in other societies around the world.

Is that a future worth putting our hopes in? Would we really trade our right to dissent and our last shreds of privacy for a ride in an air taxi and a delivery robot at our door? If science and technology’s advancement doesn’t promise to give the majority of people the ability to live their lives as they please, why should we wait for it?

Technological contrivances whose purpose is to enslave me, my family, and my friends do admittedly inspire a certain kind of dreadful awe, but I would rather read that science fiction novel than live in it.

In the end, this is Sinofuturism’s lack of the promise of ennoblement. People now make fun of the American suburbs of the 1950s, or use them as an object of misplaced nostalgia. But if you were to look at that lifestyle — the house, the car, the TV, the telephone — you could see the seed of a way of life so appealing and so free that it would eventually become the global standard.

China is a beautiful country to visit right now, but Sinofuturists who obsess over its neon cities and its cutting-edge technology show a reluctance to move there.

Notes

1 Interestingly, Japan did something a bit similar when its growth slowed after the oil shocks of the 1970s and again after the real estate bust of the 1990s. The country needed to transition from the heavy and chemical industries to the knowledge-intensive sectors, which included electronics, computers, and other things, according to the industrial policy ministry, MITI.

This was somewhat successful — a decent amount of the futuristic Japanese stuff that wowed us in the 80s, 90s, and early 00s was the result of this push, or was the result of parallel efforts in the private sector. It probably led to William Gibson’s visions of a Japan-led cyberpunk future. However, Japan never returned to the rates of growth seen during its catch-up phase, despite the high-tech manufacturing push being sufficient to maintain Japan’s position at the global technological frontier for a long time and possibly boosting its growth.

2 There have been a few scattered allegations that iShowSpeed was paid by the Chinese government. His organization, bsp, refutes the allegations.

3 We know it’s not culture because China’s unregulated “urban villages” and Chinese-descended places like Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore all build much higher density and much more mixed-use spaces, while relying less on cars.

A bare gray concrete rotunda is located beneath a bare white concrete tunnel pointed at an empty sky. 4 The&nbsp, art exhibition&nbsp, is that the Sinofuturist VC David Galbraith&nbsp, described as” sublime” &nbsp. It’s the kind of brutalism that hipsters and culture snobs love to sneer at in the West, but suddenly admire when it’s a foreign country. Galbraith is British, so this exhibit might just be more in line with British tastes than American ones, though.

5 China’s massive high-speed rail network will also be an incredible challenge to maintain ( read&nbsp, this Casey Handmer blog post&nbsp, to understand the details ). Unless ridership stays very very high even on the secondary lines, China’s HSR will probably end up being a significant fiscal drag.

This article was originally published on Noah Smith’s Noahpinion&nbsp, Substack, and is republished with kind permission. Become a Noahopinion&nbsp, subscriber&nbsp, here.

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Trump’s broken and flawed trade war algorithm – Asia Times

There was a time when US politics was conducted across mahogany furniture, national security disputes were spelled out in full sentences, and political decisions were filtered through experienced institutions.

With the next coming of Donald J. Trump, who no longer serves as a head of state but instead functions as a market-reactive process, that period is over. The US president has so evolved into a contentious, screen-driven experiment in governance on impulse.

The global business serves as a guarantee, never policymaking.

The engine is Trump, and the engine that is Trump has been broken. According to what they are supposed to be, systems are meant to be precise sets of rules that produce predictable results. Trump, nevertheless, has absorbed the variety and expanded the function. &nbsp,

His presidency also usually acts as a faulty trading bot, unable to have the balance or reasoning of an AI model but sensitive to Dow, Nasdaq, VIX, and Treasury yield fluctuations.

His affected taxes vanish when the Nasdaq drops. Trade war risks are dialed up when bond provides soar. A spike in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX ) signals a change in foreign policy rather than market instability. This is not management; rather, it is a nervous, jerky-response machine.

Trump’s sudden 90-day tax reprieve for some Chinese tech exports vividly illustrated this new reality. The choice wasn’t the result of any high-level discussion with Beijing or a resuscitation of multilateralism.

Instead, it was a Nasdaq-driven stress reaction to rising equity prices for US tech companies. The industry did not rule the markets, but the industry did.

This new computational uncertainty has paralyzed regional planning in Southeast Asia. As if US policy then follows a straight path, officials and technocrats in Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta, and Manila are also putting together actions to Trump’s statement of” Liberation Day” taxes. &nbsp,

However, Trump’s administration no more adheres to timelines or philosophy. It moves using mood figures and uncertainty ticks. And this novel disconnect has the potential to be fatal for commerce and industry in the area.

A Trump tariff on Chinese goods from today might unintentionally hurt Indonesian middle exporters tomorrow. If those manufacturers pivot, they might discover that the price has been eliminated the following month, leaving them vulnerable and cash-strapped.

A week later in Trump World, Thai companies who have their supply chains modified to favour US customers may find their opportunities reversed.

Trump’s flawed algorithm has so stalled investments, stifled planning, and weakened confidence. No creative destruction has emerged, but strategic paralysis has spread far and wide.

China is adapting to this jumbled, disorganized new fact, and it is demonstrating that it no longer desires coherence from Washington. China is instead constructing firewalls by strengthening its tech ecosystem, expanding bilateral yuan settlements, and enhancing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP ). Beijing is hedging against US vacuity as well as US punishment.

That’s because the Trump 2.0 management plays a volatile role rather than a proper one. And volatility players don’t bargain; they react. They don’t act, they say.

This is real-time trading, no diplomacy. The engine tightens its hold with each uneven move. &nbsp,

Without readjusting their objectives, ASEAN people may find themselves reacting both late and incorrectly. Because friends and foes are lumped and axed up, Trump’s trade policy is a simplistic crossbow without a specific goal. &nbsp,

It has evolved into a form of” hammer diplomacy,” which is brutal, conservative, and destructive. Taxes are outbursts, not calibrated tools. And the harm they cause is system-wide confusion and chaos, not just precise discomfort.

Even when exceptions are granted, they arrive too late because the damage to confidence and supply chain integrity has already been done. Not as a buying partner has America lost its credibility, but rather because of instability.

Unfortunately, Trump is now under the control of the world’s economic rulers, who railed against them. Every tax tilt is dictated by the bond business. His administration is now being scripted in real-time using the same methods he sought to stop.

One needs to start reading market indicators instead of communiqués in order to predict the upcoming Trump decision. Is the offer on 10-year Bank increasing? Prepare for tax suspensions.

Does the Nasdaq increase as a result of device property rebounding? Believe sanctions for Chinese technology. Is the VI on the rise? Watch out for fresh, unpredictable White House communications, most likely via Truth Social.

These measures no longer serve as financial sidebars. They are US international policy. What Trump has created is more than just another charade: it is a brand-new governing system, an aggressive, wacky, and extremely unbound by legislation or strategy.

It moves at the frequency of sentiment, and a slow-moving disaster will result in the same kind of political fallout. But despite its length, it wields a lot of power—not through reason, but rather by emotion. Not through politics, but through momentum.

The most effective note on White House letterhead doesn’t appear on letterhead in this modern era; it appears on trading screens instead. That is the computational presidency’s rule. It doesn’t need to consider. It simply needs to keep reacting while making the world sigh in disbelief.

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AI-driven job loss is no cause for panic – Asia Times

The uncanny ability of artificial intelligence ( AI ) software to imitate some crucial human behaviors has sparked debate about its impact on employment. Does the rise in computers ‘ innate intelligence result in high unemployment and high social costs?

Some writers, like John Cassidy of The New Yorker, recall the turbulent history of the textile industry in the early 19th century in the United Kingdom, when highly developed, highly trained manufacturing workers were replaced by complex, highly automated technology.

Numerous displaced employees resorted to aggressive behavior, including using job-eliminating devices. These rebels are still etched in the history books because of the negative social effects technology-driven unemployment has had on them, and they are known as” Luddites” after a leader of these activities.

As the Artificial job market shrinks, John Cassidy asks if we can perform better. To be sure, there are actual work loss in some professions. In reality, the reading of program code is undergoing changes that are influenced by AI.

By replacing low-skilled programmers with AI, Google and others are reducing the work required to write code by 20 %. This improvement in efficiency is not something new in application development.

I recall in the early stages of RCA’s online system development, when integrated circuit chips had a number of active transistor devices that needed to be laboriously connected to one another using straightforward design principles to conduct desired data processing operations.

Engineers wrote the connections on blueprints while the design process was so tedious that the surface of a place was used. We at RCA used for labor-intensive techniques to create some avionic techniques.

This did not last very long because the method was made possible by program. Immediately, hundreds and then thousands of interconnected circuit elements were used to create chips.

What then happened to the professionals and their replacements by the new technology? Some people entered the field of structure design, while others entered device design software development.

Because the corporation kept investing in training the engineering force to make it easier for people to transition into various jobs as the technology advanced, I don’t remember having a problem with employment.

Cards with billions of circuits are currently created using highly developed technology. There is a lack of device manufacturers who are skilled in managing the operation.

Despite this, there will be job fracture as AI software expand across a variety of business roles. Redundant business functions are perfect targets for AI applications.

People with these positions will in fact been replaced and required to be trained for positions that demand new knowledge. However, we have once again witnessed such a task development process.

What happened to the many thousands of people who used to work as administrative telephone users? As technologies advanced, new positions became available.

The straightforward but crucial response is that technology is only partially change human-perceived tasks. In the end, AI techniques are underwritten by human intellect. Federal education that prepares a workforce that is technologically advanced is the key to avoiding technology-driven unemployment.

Henry Kressel is a long-term private equity investment in technology companies as well as an innovator, author, and technician. He was a pioneer in the field of electronics and pioneered the development of modern electro-optic systems at RCA Laboratories. &nbsp,

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