Could US forcing Panama to exit China’s Belt and Road set pattern? – Asia Times

Following Donald Trump’s repeated says that the US needs to “take up” the Panama canal from Foreign power, the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, visited Panama to require the state lower China’s effect. On the surface, it seems Rubio has succeeded.

On February 3, the Nicaraguan authorities withdrew from China’s international system software, the Belt and Road Initiative. Panama becomes the first Latin American nation to support Belt and Road and to stop assistance in the process.

Local attorneys urged the nation’s highest court on February 4 to revoke the agreement granted to Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison Port Holdings, which grants it the right to work two slots at either end of the Panama Canal. They claim that it violates the constitution of the nation because it gives the port company considerable landholdings and exudes extreme tax breaks. This is still being looked at by the Filipino officials, according to reports.

But what is the fact of China’s appearance in the river, and what does increased US investigation mean for Xi Jinping’s personal project?

US defense and business rely heavily on the Panama Canal. The US accounts for 74 % of canal cargo. But, while Trump’s worries of losing the canal does get natural, his assertions about China’s impact are exaggerated.

The Panama Canal Authority serves as the administration’s representative. Since 1997, CK Hutchison Port Holdings Limited, a Hong Kong-listed company with passions in over 53 ships in 24 states, has operated the Port of Balboa and Port of Cristobal on either end of the river. Out of the five nearby slots, these two are the most important.

One of the top slot traders in the world is CK Hutchison Holdings Limited, which is owned by businessman Li Ka-shing. No direct relationships exist between the business and the jobs with Belt and Road.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s (CCP ) potential to control the canal and” shut it down” is one of the biggest risks that China’s influence over the canal poses, as the US has suggested.

Washington has also expressed concern that the CCP can gather information about US boats, such as shipping patterns and maritime routes, thanks to its accessibility to dual-use port technology. Additionally, it worries that China might “economic chokehold” the US by imposing rate increases on travel expenses.

The second two points cover possible marine usage by China in ships. But while the People’s Liberation Army army has access to Chinese-owned ships under local laws and policies, they require host nation permission to use Chinese-operated international ports. These ships are also often ill-suited for defense aid and activities.

So the most possible threat concerns cleverness. The CCP may use the 2020 national protection laws to collect sensitive data from Hong Kong-based businesses if it deems it necessary.

As for price hikes, there have been new increases in response to floods, repair investments and desire. Following Rubio’s attend, the US has claimed it is allowed to travel without paying taxes.

This has been denied by Panama’s President, José Raúl Mulino. Due to the 1977 neutrality principle, which was instituted, the charges are imposed evenly. There is no proof that China participated in these price increases.

Panama’s ‘ BRI-xit’ and Trump’s political spend

In the unlikely event that CK Hutchison’s agreement is canceled, what would that mean for China’s appearance in Panama? China’s opportunities in Panama accompany Belt and Road, yet if they have increased since the project’s start.

Due to its location and function in global commerce, the nation holds geostrategic significance. Therefore, it serves as a crucial component in China’s development of a local hub for its economic and political control.

This includes expanding import capabilities and protecting imports of raw materials and energy resources. China’s engagements in Panama include foreign direct investments ( FDI), which amounted to around 0.8 % in 2023 ( compared with 3.6 % by Spain and 19.6 % by the US), primarily in the logistics, infrastructure, energy and construction sectors.

Most Belt and Road promotions were halted or canceled for several, frequently political, reasons.

Withdrawing from the program is unlikely to lead to significant short-term changes because Belt and Road tasks in the river are already quite minimal. CK Hutchison will only be” somewhat afflicted” in case of a deal withdrawal.

What’s more, as the event of Brazil shows, a country may be affiliated with Belt and Road and also receive Foreign opportunities.

So, Chinese activities will definitely begin outside the Belt and Road model. However, even though China has shown restricted sorrow and argued that Panama has made a “regrettable choice”, Sino-Panamanian relations does great until Trump’s attention has turned abroad.

Trump’s comments regarding the Panama Canal may be exaggerated to a domestic audience who supports a” strong man president.” However, it also reflects US concerns about China’s growing influence from the past.

So the administration’s focus on containing China is hardly surprising. Instead, it demonstrates Trump’s broader “make America great again 2.0″ strategy. Therefore, Panama’s” BRI-xit” may bolster US resolve on “reclaiming” the Americas.

The Panamanian authorities seem caught between US pressure to limit China’s influence and the economic boost provided by Chinese “pragmatic” investments. In the upcoming years, they will have to make difficult choices, just like their counterparts in other Belt and Road nations.

The US has significant influence and economic leverage over Panama because it provides the most foreign direct investment ( US$ 3.8 billion annually ) and is the canal’s biggest customer. Conversely, China’s interests and engagements in the country have increased, and Beijing has made it clear that it is patient and wants to continue cooperation and “resist external interruption”.

Residents of Panama have expressed a strong reluctance to return to US rule, and protests have erupted in Panama over Trump’s “muscular approach.” Therefore, the question remains whether this is the “great step forward” for Panama’s ties with the US that Rubio suggests or whether Trump’s actions will ultimately push Panama closer to Beijing.

Tabita Rosendal is a PhD candidate at Lund University studying China.

The Conversation has republished this article under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Trump delays tariffs on small packages from China

36 hours before
Natalie Sherman

BBC News

EPA A United States Postal Service (USPS) worker in a red shirt loads a mail car in Miami, Florida, USA, 05 February 2025. EPA

After his sudden order ending duty-free treatment for shipments worth less than$ 800 left the US postal service and other agencies scrambling to comply, US President Donald Trump has suspended tariffs on small packages from China.

As a result of the purchase, the postal services briefly stopped accepting packages from China, only to change course a day later.

Many Americans in the US were left wondering about the death of deals ordered from companies like Shein and Temu, who had used the exemption to allow for low-value packages to grow quickly in the US.

Trump made the change over the weekend as part of a larger plan to increase Chinese border taxes by 10 % starting on February 4.

His revision of the order on Friday stated that tariff-free shipping would continue for packages from China worth less than$ 800 until “adequate systems are in place to fully and expeditely process and collect tariff revenue.”

The action comes as some of Trump’s additional rapid-fire initiatives, including those that he announced last month, have also encountered barriers, including legal challenges.

He announced last weekend that he would start imposing 25 % tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, before abruptly suspending those duties for a month so that conversations can continue.

Trump had outlined on the campaign trail on Friday that he anticipated he would start imposing “reciprocal taxes” on some nations next week. He had previously stated that the US would levy taxes at the same rates that various nations impose on the similar products produced in the US.

The US had started to re-examine the provision for low-value items, known as de minimis, before Trump entered business.

In September, the Biden administration proposed enforcing regulations that would enable US companies compete and address issues preventing illegal drug supplies.

To facilitate trade and give officials more time to concentrate on higher priority shipments, the US increased the threshold for tariff exemption from$ 200 to$ 800 in 2016.

However, that choice has drawn criticism because e-commerce has rapidly grown and the number of packages entering the US under the$ 800 cap increased from 140 million to over 1.3 billion in the previous year.

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Georgia and Thailand probe human egg trafficking ring

Georgia questioning “four international immigrants” following revelations from the Pavena Foundation

Two of the young women allegedly trafficked to Georgia are seen on their return to Thailand earlier this week. Dozens more are still believed to be captives of an “egg farm” in the former Soviet republic, according to the Pavena Hongsakul Foundation.
Two of the young people who are alleged to have been trafficked to Georgia are seen returning to Thailand prior this year. Lots more are also believed to be victims of an “egg land” in the former Soviet state, according to the Pavena Hongsakul Foundation.

Thailand and Georgia announced that they are looking into a human smuggling ring that a Thai non-governmental organization claims is attempting to harvest Thai women’s individual eggs from the South Caucasus nation.

Three Thai people who were alleged to have been working as surrogates in the country were repatriated by Georgia’s internal government on Thursday, according to the interior ministry. Four international citizens were reportedly interrogated as part of the investigation.

Georgia has no established infertility rules. However, there are advertisements for the services they offer, and infertility agreements are regarded as legitimate contracts. The Georgian government has stated that it is preparing to declare it unlawful. &nbsp,

Surapan Thaiprasert, chief of the Foreign Affairs Division of the Royal Thai Police, told Reuters on Friday that Thai authorities were investigating.

One of the victims was speaking at a press conference in Thailand this year, without giving a name, and wore a mouth mask and hat.

She claimed to have responded to a social media post calling for surrogate mother to receive money from people and receive a monthly salary of 25, 000 baht. She said that after agreeing, she was brought to Georgia, via Dubai and Armenia, where two Taiwanese citizens escorted her to a home.

” They took us to a home where there were 60 to 70 Thai women. The women there told us there was no ( surrogacy ) contracts or parents”, she said.

The ladies, she said, “would get injected to obtain therapy, anaesthetised and their eggs may be extracted with a system. After we got this knowledge and it was not the same as the ad, we got scared. We made an effort to reach people at home.

The people at the press event claimed they had faked being weak in order to avoid having their eggs harvested. They added that their documents had been taken, and that their captors had informed them that they had the option of being detained in Thailand if they returned house.

The three people were reportedly returned by the Pavena Hongsakul Foundation for Children and Women, but it was estimated that there were still around 100 more recruited ladies in Georgia.

Ms. Pavena claimed to have been informed of the activity from a different woman who had been released in September, only to be reimbursed by the group for$ 70,000.

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India-Indonesia near BrahMos missile deal aimed at China – Asia Times

India and Indonesia are reportedly close to concluding a deal that could allow the original to provide the latter with the BrahMos hypersonic missile, which could have a significant impact on security dynamics in the southeastern approaches of the South China Sea.

During Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto’s recent visit to India as a guest of honor on Republic Day, a BrahMos weapon deal was officially discussed. During the vacation, Prabowoo met with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BrahMos CEO Jaiteerth Joshi.

That was followed by an Indonesian group visit, led by Navy Chief Muhammad Ali, to the Brahmos Aerospace office. India and Russia work together to produce the weapons.

India has indicated that it will be willing to extend a line of credit to Indonesia in order to help the US$ 450 million offer. Indonesia would become the next ASEAN member state to get the fierce 290-kilometer range missile if the deal is approved.

In 2022, the Philippines purchased a$ 375 million anti-ship weapon system from India as fresh water tenses with China arose.

Strong barrier

Considering the Indo-Pacific and South China Sea’s liquid corporate and defense dynamics, marked by China’s growing confidence and rising US-China rivalry, the BrahMos missile had also significantly increase Indonesia’s deterrent capabilities.

The BrahMos hypersonic missile, which travels at a speed faster than Mach 2,8 and is mounted on either shore or ship, is a linguistic combination that derives its name from the Indian Brahmaputra River and the Russian Moskva.

It is a mid-range, ramjet-powered hypersonic cruise missile that can be launched from all three regions – area, air, and water. While it has a range of up to 800 kilometers, due to Missile Technology Control Regime ( MTCR ) restrictions, the range of export versions is capped at 290 kilometers.

Indonesia’s concerns about its ability to secure its Exclusive Economic Zone ( EEZ ) have grown more acute as a result of China’s increasingly aggressive posture in the Natuna Sea, which has recently led to frequent confrontations with the Indonesian Navy.

Largest missiles would inhibit any possible Foreign aggression in the Natuna Sea, but they would also aid Indonesia in achieving its goals for modernizing its defenses.

None of Indonesia’s Surface-to-Air Missile ( SAM ) systems ( French Exocet, Russian P-800 Oniks, and Chinese C-705 and C-802 ) have a range anywhere near the Brahmos ‘ 290-kilometer range.

Additionally, the Philippines ‘ signing of a BrahMos cope with India and Vietnam is likely to bring a similar price shortly, which will rebalance the balance of power between China and rival Southeast Asian applicants in the contested South China Sea.

China is well aware of BrahMos ‘ advanced features, including its dart-like shape for a strong penetration capability, radar-absorbent coating for enhancing stealth, and ramjet engine that slows down adversaries ‘ response times.

Additionally, it has an extremely accurate composite guidance system that includes active and passive radar, satellite navigation systems ( SNS), and inertial navigation systems ( INS ) for advanced targeting.

Underscoring that potency, India deployed BrahMos missiles near India’s Line of Actual Control ( LAC ) in 2021, leading to heated reactions from China.

Indonesia’s Minimum Essential Force ( MEF ) program, launched in 2010, seeks to modernize its aging military hardware while balancing financial constraints. With a projected$ 46.6 billion defence budget for 2024-2029, Indonesia’s focus includes upgrading its air and naval capabilities.

India’s burgeoning defense industry, enabled by initiatives like” Aatmanirbhar Bharat” ( self-reliant India ), is well-positioned to meet Indonesia’s weaponry requirements.

In April 2024, the Indian Embassy in Jakarta hosted the annual India-Indonesia Defense Industry Exhibition-cum-Seminar, showcasing goods from 36 American security firms. The Society of Indian Defence Manufacturers ( SIDM) and Indonesia’s Pinhantans are expected to sign an MoU to promote joint production and technology sharing in response to the momentum.

Indonesia’s 2012 Defense Industry Law, mandating technology transfers for big purchases, aligns properly with India’s skills in producing cost-effective systems like the Tejas fighter jet, BrahMos weapons and advanced naval arteries.

Despite multi-faceted defense engagements such as security dialogues, Joint Defence Cooperation Committee ( JDCC ) meetings, military exercises, and port visits, India’s defense cooperation with Indonesia has so far been limited. However, a deal involving BrahMos missiles would immediately enhance the defense partnership’s depth and significance.

Brothers in arms

As China’s military ambitions spread in Southeast Asia, India’s role as a reliable security partner and weapons exporter to regional countries, including the Philippines and Vietnam, is becoming increasingly significant.

India’s strategic presence in the region needs to be strengthened, and Indonesia, the largest nation in ASEAN and a major maritime player, needs to do so.

A unique opportunity to give military collaboration with India is provided by President Prabowo’s military background and commitment to enhancing defense capabilities.

Unlike former President Joko Widodo’s economics-focused diplomacy, Prabowo’s agenda emphasizes robust defense policies, making this an ideal juncture to deepen bilateral ties.

The BrahMos deal can thus be a game-changer for India-Indonesia ties, giving rise to more robust defense relations while counterbalancing China’s growing military might and assertiveness in Southeast Asia.

Dr Rahul Mishra is a senior research fellow at the German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance, Thammasat University, Thailand, and Associate Professor at the Centre for Indo-Pacific Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India. He can be reached at rahul. [email protected] and followed on X at @rahulmishr_

Harshit Prajapati is a doctoral candidate at the Centre for Indo-Pacific Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, India. He can be reached at harshi55_is [email protected]. in&nbsp, and followed on X at @harshitp_47

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RBI: India’s central bank slashes rates after five years

Interest rates have been cut by India’s northern banks for the first time in nearly five years to stop Asia’s third-largest business from growing faster.

The Reserve Bank of India ( RBI ) reduced its repo rate from 6.5 % to 6.25 %, in line with the expectations of many economists.

The mortgage rate is the price at which business banks are lent by the central bank.

The most recent reduction occurs when India’s GDP growth is reported to have slowed to a four-year low of 6.7 %.

Sanjay Malhotra, the governor of the RBI, stated that the banks was continuing to hold its policy position as “neutral,” which would open up more space for growth and signaled more rate cuts.

In the fastest-growing big economy, the world’s investment growth and urban consumption have been declining. In addition, business gains decreased during the first quarter of this fiscal year.

But moderating prices, an increase in rural need and great agricultural output did help development, said Mr Malhotra.

The rate cut could lead to marginally lower mortgage and credit card interest rates as well as cheaper borrowing costs for companies.

The central bank’s rate reduction follows a range of measures previously announced, including an injection of$ 18bn ( £14.48bn ) into the domestic banking system, to ease a cash shortage in the economy.

Additionally, it had reduced the cash reserve ratio, or the resources that commercial businesses must keep with the RBI, by half a cent in December.

The RBI’s price walk follows the Union Budget’s$ 12bn tax cut for the struggling middle class.

Despite this, Mr Modi’s government aims to curb saving to decrease the budget deficit. With limited space for fiscal stimulus, economists expect the central bank to cut rates further by 0.5 % –1 % to support growth, according to various estimates.

The RBI’s work has been hampered by world uncertainties caused by US President Donald Trump’s tax war, an outflow of foreign investor money, and a degrading currency, which may further diminish if rates come down.

Due to heavy foreign buyer flows from stock markets in recent months, the Indian rupees is trading near record highs.

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When tariffs make good common sense – Asia Times

The&nbsp, hazard of US tariffs&nbsp, on Canada and Mexico seems to have abated for today. Both nations made mainly symbolic commitments to border security, which led to Trump’s decision to postpone the tariffs by one month. This suggests that the taxes may be delayed or completely canceled.

This is the least negative results. Although the majority of the world is euphoric, the simple knowledge that Trump may change his mind and impose tariffs on America’s important allies and trading partners at any time will chill business investment. &nbsp, Bloomberg information:

Over a furious 72 hours, President Donald Trump’s danger of punishing fresh tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China …sent manufacturing organizations scrambling for cover…Even after the senator put a&nbsp, one-month hold&nbsp, on the Mexico and Canada tasks on Monday, professionals are still very much on watch for extra taxes …

It was …frantic for Randy Carr, who runs&nbsp, World Emblem, the biggest global manufacturer of emblems and patches …” We have had to suspend every capex project we have for the next 24 months until we better understand the trade situation”, Carr said… World Emblem also paused hiring plans, said the executive, whose company has 1, 300 employees between production bases in the US and Mexico. ” It’s suggestive of the changes we had to make during Covid-19″.

Tariffs benefit private manufacturers by shielding them from foreign competitors, but they also hurt them by raising the price of imported components. One of the two main issues with taxes is that they raise customer costs, which is the other.

Does this imply that tariffs are usually unfair? Some people praised the benefits of free trade in response to Trump’s turbulent tariff announcement, even some Democrats who are typically wary of liberal arguments.

But after years of underdevelopment, for fanatic explanations are improbable to carry much weight. Any ideological blanket denunciation of tariffs will likely face that deep reservoir of ( somewhat justified ) anger. It seems like free trade was America’s sucker’s bet.

In reality, there&nbsp, are &nbsp, some reasonable explanations for when taxes may be useful. These concepts have been the subject of numerous documents written about them that economists have known for centuries. The reasons for tariffs are often discussed in public conversations because economists frequently have an overt attachment to the concept of free trade.

I therefore decided to go over some of these. But notice that all of them are claims for&nbsp, targeted&nbsp, taxes, instead of the large, across-the-board tariffs that Trump threatened against Canada and Mexico.

Federal safety concerns

The most important rationale for taxes, as I see it, is national security. If a war breaks out between the US and China, the US will own to create a whole lot of munitions and weapons quite fast— especially drones, ships, missiles, and so on. It’s crucial to have existing human industries that can be immediately repurposed for defense functions in order to accomplish that, just like automakers built planes and vehicles in World War 2.

A nation’s manufacturing base will collapse and die in a lengthy standard modern war against a rival nation. For instance, if the US finds itself without battery factories — both on its own soil or in a secure area of the country — it won’t be able to produce the FPV drones that have come to be the standard tool on Ukraine’s battlefields. That could be devastating. Therefore, it is important to keep some power production power in the US, Canada, and/or Mexico.

Today, Xi Jinping knows this. One thing he can do is try to crush the US producing industries by outpacing them with targeted surges of cheap exports, as he almost certainly does if he wants to undermine the US. It’s quite possible that this is one motivation behind China ‘s&nbsp, sudden wave of manufactured exports, which is being promoted with below-market bank loans, government grants, and a host of other laws.

Taxes are a means of preventing this forced underdevelopment method. If Xi unexpectedly decides to flood America with affordable Chinese batteries, the US may respond very quickly by raising taxes on Chinese chargers, canceling out the impact of China’s incentives. In reality, this is what Biden did last year, when&nbsp, he levied extremely large tariffs&nbsp, on a variety of China’s proper business.

However, take note that Trump’s tariff proposals for Mexico and Canada don’t exactly suit this technique. Most important, putting taxes on US allies doesn’t protect against forced underdevelopment by China, in truth, it makes the problem&nbsp, worse, by disrupting North American supply stores and raising prices for US manufacturers.

It also makes the US dollar value, making American imports less aggressive. This is a common reason why intended tariffs like Biden’s are more powerful than large, across-the-board tariffs like the ones Trump is threatening.

In fact, dollar appreciation is exactly what happened in 2018-19 after Trump’s initial tariffs, and it’s exactly what’s happening now:

So if you want tariffs for national security reasons, Trump’s proposed tariffs on US allies are &nbsp, exactly the wrong kind.

Our companies vs their companies

Economists don’t typically think about national security, instead, they tend to think good policies are those that produce more growth, more employment, and so on. And if those are your objectives, there are definitely still some reasons why tariffs might be a good thing— at least, from a single nation’s perspective.

The most common reason is all about&nbsp, national champions. Real-world markets aren’t perfectly competitive — some big companies make a ton of profit, by leveraging what economists call&nbsp, increasing returns to scale.

Increasing returns to scale are just anything that gives big companies a cost advantage over smaller ones — maybe network effects, or big fixed costs, or a” superstar” effect that draws in top talent, etc. In a world of increasing returns, the winning companies make a lot of profit, and smaller companies don’t.

A country might, therefore, be able to increase its wealth by using tariffs to guard its own “national champion” companies. The idea is basically to block foreign companies ‘ domestic markets by using tariffs to lower their scale.

This will make it easier for your own nation’s national champions to outshine their international rivals, resulting in greater profit for them on the market. This is called” strategic trade” policy.

James Brander and Barbara Spencer&nbsp, pointed out&nbsp, this argument for tariffs back in the 1980s. Paul Krugman, who helped develop the leading theory of increasing returns and trade, &nbsp, summarized&nbsp, their work on this topic in 1987:

If a nation can somehow make sure that the lucky firm that receives the most money is domestic rather than foreign, it can raise its national income at the expense of other nations. James Brander and Barbara Spencer uncovered in two well-known papers that, when appropriate, government policies like export subsidies and import restrictions can deter foreign companies from entering lucrative markets.

Government policy here serves much the same role that” strategic” moves such as investment in excess capacity or research and development ( R &amp, D) serve in many models of oligopolistic competition —hence the term” strategic trade policy” .…]A ] t least under some circumstances a government, by supporting its firms in international competition, can raise national welfare at another country’s expense.

In fact, there’s some evidence that free trade can make a country poorer by destroying its national champions. This is from&nbsp, Sampson et al. ( 2022 ):

Import liberalization lowers import costs and boosts competition. However, with scale economies, import liberalization can also reduce domestic industry’s productivity by reducing its scale, leading to lower exports.

Evidence from the permanent normalization of US trade relations with China in the early 2000s, as this column demonstrates, demonstrates that increased Chinese import competition did indeed reduce US exports through this channel, implying the existence of industry-level economies in the US.

The point is that America would have been a little wealthier if the US had started importing tariffs to protect some very oligopolistic industries from Chinese competition in the early 2000s.

But again, this argument for tariffs doesn’t apply to Trump’s recent efforts. First of all, it only applies to those sectors where there are few winners and a lot of profits to be made. That implies, again, that&nbsp, targeted&nbsp, tariffs are the way to go.

Broad, across-the-board tariffs will dilute the effect, through exchange rate appreciation. Trump would have imposed tariffs on agriculture, which is a highly competitive sector with few profits to compete for. Simply put, this strategy does not align with the theory of strategic trade.

Second, you probably don’t want to start a trade war with your most significant allies and trading partners if you want your national champions to be able to scale up. They will almost certainly retaliate, denying market access to your own top companies.

If their attempts to buy off Trump with symbolic concessions failed, Canada and Mexico would likely resort to retaliation measures. The top companies in America would lose market share and suffer in their fierce competition with Chinese rivals as a result.

And finally, if you want to increase your national champions ‘ scale, you can probably get a lot more mileage out of&nbsp, export subsidies&nbsp, than tariffs. Tariffs can hurt national champions by denying them access to cheap production inputs, export subsidies, although they cost more in fiscal terms, don’t have this problem.

The American way of protecting the infant industry

In this recent blog post by Anthony Pompliano, many people have questioned my response to the pro-tariff arguments. Please click on the link.

Some of Pompliano’s arguments in this piece are simply bad. For example, he cites the factory construction boom and&nbsp, the reshoring of the solar industry &nbsp, as examples of American industrial successes driven by tariffs.

However, in both of those cases, while tariffs might have been a significant factor, we didn’t really see much progress until Biden introduced industrial policy through the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act.

Pompliano also contends that tariffs are less deflationary than income taxes, which is generally true if the subject is the same tax rate. But if you’re talking about raising a set amount of&nbsp, revenue&nbsp, from either income tax or tariffs, then the tariffs are almost certainly much worse.

This is because tariffs are a lot easier to&nbsp, avoid&nbsp, than income taxes, you just buy similar products made elsewhere. Because tariffs are relatively easy to avoid, they don’t raise a lot of revenue. And so if you want to use tariffs to raise, say,$ 1 trillion a year for the US government, you’re going to need to set the tariff rates&nbsp, very&nbsp, high. And that will be very distortionary.

But anyway, Pompliano’s strongest argument is that tariffs for infant industries were useful for America’s economic development back in the 19th century:

Tariffs are widely credited as&nbsp, an essential tool&nbsp, for the success of the Industrial Revolution, which created the American economy we know today…Historical figures like George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Henry Clay, James Monroe, Abraham Lincoln, William McKinley, and Theodore Roosevelt were all outspoken supporters of tariffs as a necessary tool for America to thrive. Give us a protective tariff, and we shall have the greatest nation on earth, according to the well-known Lincoln quote on tariffs.

This is what economists refer to as an “infant industry argument.” Basically, American leaders in the early days of the republic wanted to promote the creation of new industries in the US Alexander Hamilton wrote his famous&nbsp,” Report on Manufactures” &nbsp, in 1791.

He claimed that tariffs would enable domestic champions to have the same level of scale as foreigners, which was in line with the strategic trade theory developed a century later. Hamilton added that shielding brand-new American industries from competition would give them more time to “learn” about how to compete with established foreign rivals.

In some cases, infant industry arguments are plausible; Pompliano certainly exaggerates when he claims that tariffs built America, but they were likely a result of helping some important American industries start their own businesses rather than being replaced by floods of British imports.

But here too, the specifics of Trump’s plans are at odds with the economics. Once again, the economic argument is for&nbsp, targeted tariffs&nbsp, in very specific cases— in this case, new industries facing competition from big foreign incumbents. Trump’s across-the-board tariffs are almost entirely targeting&nbsp, non-infant&nbsp, industries. ( Also, in general, &nbsp, import quotas are more helpful&nbsp, for infant industries than tariffs. )

Two more speculative arguments

So those are the three basic arguments in favor of tariffs — national security, national champions, and infant industries. All of them are pretty solid arguments, though they all imply that Trump’s preferred approach to tariffs is highly suboptimal. However, there are still some intriguing tariff debates that merit discussion.

One of these is&nbsp, Michael Pettis ‘ theory&nbsp, that tariffs on China will help to correct global trade imbalances, and could force China to change its economic model to a more consumption-focused one. I discussed this concept here.

Basically, I think this makes sense as a&nbsp, China-specific political-economic&nbsp, argument. The idea is that Chinese companies will quickly become unprofitable ( due to overproduction and over competition ) if tariffs force them to concentrate more on their domestic market.

This unprofitability could prompt China’s government to reduce its subsidies for industrial overproduction. That’s my personal interpretation of Pettis ‘ ideas, and I’m not sure how plausible it is, but it’s certainly an interesting thought. I would note, however, that this is a purely&nbsp, China-specific&nbsp, idea, rather than a justification for tariffs on Mexico and Canada.

Another theory, &nbsp, courtesy of Sam Hammond, is that tariffs are the first step in a forced de-dollarization of the global economy:

The US intentionally undermines the stability of the dollar as a trade currency by imposing universal tariffs, which I believe is the case because disruption forces other nations to consider reducing dollar holdings or considering alternative reserve arrangements, thereby enabling a monetary reset.

I don’t put much credence in this theory. The reason, as I’ve explained a number of times, is that tariffs make the US dollar more expensive, not less.

Anyway, I believe that national security, as well as the traditional economics justification for tariffs, such as strategic trade and infant industry protection, are still the strongest arguments in favor of tariffs. And every single one of them raises doubts about the tariffs Trump is proposing. Trump’s threatened tariffs on Canada and Mexico are incredibly unlikely to be those that are, even if some tariffs are acceptable in some circumstances.

This&nbsp, article&nbsp, was first published on Noah Smith’s Noahpinion&nbsp, Substack and is republished with kind permission. Become a Noahopinion&nbsp, subscriber&nbsp, here.

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Myanmar’s Shwe Kokko: Inside a city ‘built on scams’

47 seconds ago
Jonathan Mind

South East Asia journalist

Jonathan Mind/ BBC Workers in blue shirts sit amid construction rubble in front of tall buildings near a crane.Jonathan Mind/ BBC

The large, beautiful structures that emerge from the meadows on the Myanmar part of the Moei creek are so jarring that you find yourself squirming to make sure you haven’t imagined them.

Eight years ago there was nothing over there in Karen State. A long-running legal war and a few roughly-built concrete structures have made this region of Myanmar one of the poorest places on earth, all combined with trees. But now, on this area along the border with Thailand, a little town has emerged like a dream. It is known as the Golden Raintree or Shwe Kokko.

It is accused of being a city built on schemes, home to a profitable yet lethal connection of scams, money-laundering and human trafficking. She Zhijiang, the person responsible for it, is awaiting extradition to China while he is imprisoned in Bangkok.

But Yatai, She Zhijiang’s firm which built the city, paints a very unique perspective of Shwe Kokko in its promotional videos – as a resort town, a healthy holiday destination for Taiwanese tourists and shelter for the super-rich.

Shwe Kokko’s story is also one of the unbridled ambition that has swept away from China in recent years.

She Zhijiang dreamed of building this glittering city as his ticket out of the shadowy world of scams and gambling which he inhabited.

But by aiming so high, he has attracted Beijing’s attention, which is now eager to stop the fraudulent activities along the Thai-Myanmar border, which are increasingly targeting Chinese citizens.

Publicity about the scams is also hurting Thai tourism – Thailand is shutting down power to compounds over the border, toughening its banking rules and promising to block visas for those suspected of using Thailand as a transit route.

Shwe Kokko has been stranded in Myanmar’s post-coup, war-ravaged country, unable to attract the investment and visitors it needs to continue.

Yatai is trying to fix the city’s sinister image by allowing journalists to see it, holding out hope that more favourable reporting might even get She Zhijiang out of jail.

So they sent the BBC to Shwe Kokko.

Inside Shwe Kokko

Finding the location is challenging.

Ever since construction began in 2017, Shwe Kokko has been a forbidden place, off-limits to casual visitors.

Access became even more difficult as the civil war in Myanmar grew even more after the military coup in 2021. It takes three days from the country’s commercial hub Yangon – through multiple checkpoints, blocked roads and a real risk of getting caught in armed skirmishes. Crossing Thailand takes only a few minutes, but careful planning is required to avoid Thai police and army patrols.

She Zhijiang’s colleagues took us on a tour, highlighting the newly-paved streets, the luxury villas, the trees–” Mr She believes in making a green city”, they told us. Wang Fugui, who claimed to be a former police officer from Guangxi in southern China, was our guide. He ended up in prison in Thailand, on what he insists were trumped-up fraud charges. He became one of his most dependable lieutenants there after getting to know She Zhijiang.

Getty Images Thai military personnel keep watch atop armoured vehicles along the Moei river on the Thai side, next to the 2nd Thai-Myanmar Friendship Bridge, in Thailand's Mae Sot district on April 12, 2024. Getty Images
Jonathan Mind/BBC A market in Shwe Kokko. Two women walk along a wet brown road, one pushing a wooden cart with white flowers in it. Their outfits are shades of pink. Shops selling baskets and dresses line the street on one sideJonathan Mind/BBC

At first glance, Shwe Kokko has the appearance of a provincial Chinese city. There is a constant procession of Chinese-made construction vehicles going to and from building sites, and the signs on the buildings are written in Chinese characters.

Yatai is vague about the tenants of all its buildings, as it is about many things. They told us that “rich people from many nations rent the villas.” And what about the businesses? ” Many businesses. Hotels, casinos”.

However, the majority of the people we saw were local Karen, who are one of the ethnic minorities in Myanmar, who visit Shwe Kokko daily for work. We saw very few of the overseas visitors who are supposed to be the customers of the hotels and casinos.

Yatai claims Shwe Kokko has stopped a number of scams. It has put up huge billboards all over town proclaiming, in Chinese, Burmese and English, that forced labour was not allowed, and that “online businesses” should leave. However, local people quietly informed us that the scam business was still operating.

Starting a decade ago in the unchecked frenzy of Chinese investment on the Cambodian coast, then moving to the lawless badlands of Myanmar’s border with China, the scam operators have now settled along the Thai-Myanmar border. The Myanmar military and a roiling gang of rebel armies and warlords are battling it out for control of Karen State around them.

The scams have grown into a multi-billion dollar business. They involve tens of thousands of workers who are kept in locked-down buildings where they defraud people all over the world of their savings.

Some work there willingly, but others are abducted and forced to work. Those who have fled have enslaved and suffered horrifying experiences. Some have come from Shwe Kokko.

We had the opportunity to speak with a young woman who had recently worked in one of the scam centers. She had not enjoyed it and been allowed to leave.

She claimed that her role in the modeling team, which consisted primarily of attractive young women, was to attempt to establish an intimate online relationship with potential victims.

” The target is the elderly”, she said. You begin a conversation by saying,” Oh, you look just like one of my friends.” Once you make friends you encourage them by sending pictures of yourself, sometimes wearing your night clothes”.

Then, she explains, the conversation shifts to get-rich-quick schemes, such as crypto investments, where the women claim that’s how they made a lot of money.

” When they feel close to you, you pass them on to the chatting section”, she says. The chatting partners will continue to communicate with the client to convince them to purchase shares of the crypto company.

During our brief time in Shwe Kokko we were only allowed to see what Yatai wanted us to see. Even so, it was obvious that the scams continue to exist and are likely still the city’s main industry.

Our request to see inside any of the newly-built office buildings were turned down. They kept telling us that those were private. We were escorted at all times by security guards seconded from the militia group which controls this part of the border. We were not permitted to enter the buildings ‘ construction sites or the exteriors. Many of the windows had bars on the insides.

Jonathan Mind/ BBC A military vehicle inside the city. Armed men in fatigues stand on the back of a black pickup truck driving down a road with shops on it, one called Family Fashion ShopJonathan Mind/ BBC

The young woman who used to work in a scam center said,” Everyone in Shwe Kokko knows what goes on there.”

She dismissed Yatai’s claim that it no longer permitted scam centres in Shwe Kokko.

That is a lie, I tell you. There is no way they don’t know about this. In those high-rise buildings, the entire city is doing it. No-one goes there for fun. Yatai has no way of knowing.

Who is She Zhijiang?

She Zhijiang reportedly received a call from Bangkok’s Klong Prem Prison, where he is currently imprisoned, saying,” I can promise that Yatai would never accept telecom fraud and scams.”

Yatai wanted us to hear from the man himself, and hooked up a ropey video link. We had to rely on Mr. Wang to answer our questions and keep our eyes off the prison guards because only Mr. Wang could be seen conversing with him.

Not much is known about She Zhijiang, a small-town Chinese entrepreneur who Beijing alleges is a criminal mastermind.

He left school when he was 14 and started learning computer coding in Hunan province, China, a poor village. He appears to have moved to the Philippines in his early 20s and into online gambling, which is illegal in China. He began to make his money at this point. In 2014 he was convicted by a Chinese court of running an illegal lottery, but he stayed overseas.

He managed to obtain Cambodian citizenship by investing in gambling companies there. He has used at least four different names.

He and a Karen warlord Saw Chit Thu, who controls the Moei River in Myanmar, made a deal in 2016 to create a new city together. She Zhijiang would provide the funds, the Chinese construction machinery and materials, while Saw Chit Thu and his 8, 000 armed fighters would keep it safe.

Yatai’s glitzy videos depicted a high-rise wonderland of hotels, casinos, and cyberparks, promising a$ 15 billion ( £12 billion ) investment. Shwe Kokko was described as part of Xi Jinping’s Belt-and-Road Initiative or BRI, bringing Chinese funds and infrastructure to the world.

In 2020, China publicly split its support for She Zhijiang, and the Myanmar government opened an investigation into Yatai, which was operating casinos before they were made legal in Myanmar.

Courtesy Yatai She Zhijiang wearing a black leather jacket and black trousers at Tiananmen Square, in front of yellow barricades Courtesy Yatai

She Zhijiang was detained and imprisoned in Bangkok in August 2022 following a Chinese request to Interpol. He and his business partner Saw Chit Thu have also been sanctioned by the British government for their links to human trafficking.

She Zhijiang claims to have been a victim of double deception by the Chinese government. He says he founded his company Yatai on the instruction of the Chinese Ministry of State Security, and insists that Shwe Kokko was then a part of the BRI.

He claims that because he refused to give them control of his project, China’s communist leadership is turning against him. They wanted a colony on the Thai-Myanmar border, he says. She Zhijiang’s business relationship has been denied by China.

While he denied any wrongdoing on Yatai’s part, She Zhijiang, however, admitted to” a high probability” that scammers were coming to Shwe Kokko to spend their money.

” Because our Yatai City is completely accessible to anyone who wants to enter and leave freely. Refusing customers, for a businessman like me, is really difficult. This is my area of weakness.

It is, however, stretching credulity to believe that Yatai, which runs everything in Shwe Kokko, was unable to stop scammers coming in and out of the city.

Other than scams, it’s also difficult to imagine any other business choosing to operate here. With Thailand cutting off power and telecommunications, electricity comes from diesel generators, which are expensive to run. Additionally, Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite system, which is also very expensive, is used for communication.

Yatai’s strategy is” to whitewash the project to create a narrative that Shwe Kokko is a safe city”, says Jason Tower, from the United States Institute for Peace, which has spent years researching the scam operation in Shwe Kokko.

He claims that they may even be “begin moving some of the more notorious components of the scam industry, like torture, into other areas.”

But he doesn’t think the plan will work:” What kinds of legitimate businesses will go into Shwe Kokko? It’s simply not appealing. The economy will continue to be a scam economy”.

A company operating in a conflict zone

When we were eventually allowed to see inside one casino in Shwe Kokko, run by a genial Australian, he told us they were going to close it down.

Local Karen were the only customers inside, playing a well-known arcade game where they had to shoot digital fish. We were forbidden from doing any interviews. The roulette and card tables were not present in the back rooms. The Australian manager said the casino- built six years ago- had been popular and profitable when there were just one or two of them, before the civil war. However, these days, with at least nine customers in place, there were not enough customers to turn around.

The real money was in online gambling, which he said was the main business in Shwe Kokko.

Jonathan Mind/BBC A woman walks past a sign saying trafficking is prohibited. The sign is largely blue, with drawings of people with tools apparently smashing rocks on one side, and skyscrapers on the otherJonathan Mind/BBC

It is impossible to determine how much money is made through online gambling and how much is made through blatant criminal activity, such as money laundering and fraud. They are usually run from the same compounds and by the same teams. When we inquired about the amount of money they made, Yatai refused to answer with even a ballpark figure. That is private, they said. Although the business has registered in Hong Kong, Myanmar, and Thailand, these are essentially shell companies with very little revenue or income passing through them.

We turned down Yatai’s offer to see the go-kart track, water park and model farm that they have built. Although we were unable to enter Yatai’s own luxurious hotel, we did see one more casino while being served breakfast there. It seemed empty.

The only other place we were permitted to visit was a karaoke club, which had incredible private rooms and gigantic domes that were completely obscured by digital screens and where large tropical fish and sharks swam. They also ran video loops extolling the vision and virtues of She Zhijiang. Except for a few young Chinese women who worked there, this club also appeared deserted.

They wore opera masks to avoid being identified, and danced unenthusiastically to music for a few minutes before giving up and sitting down. Interviews were not permitted. We were allowed to talk to a local Karen member of staff, but she was so intimidated by this we got little more than her name.

Jonathan Mind/BBC Seven women in a karaoke bar, wearing white, black and gold clothing, holding hands and dancing in neon lightsJonathan Mind/BBC

She Zhijiang has left Shwe Kokko’s running to a young protégé, 31-year-old He Yingxiong, in his absence. He lives with Wang Fugui in a sprawling villa they have built on the banks of the Moei River, overlooking Thailand, and guarded by massive Chinese bodyguards. They play mahjong there, eat the best food and beverages, and watch business closely.

Mr He has a slightly different explanation from his boss for the scams still operating under their noses. We are just developers of properties, he said. ” I can guarantee that this kind of thing does not happen here. However, even if it does, the locals have their own legal system, so it is their responsibility to handle it. Our job is just to provide good infrastructure, good buildings and supporting industries”.

However, this region of Myanmar has neither a legal system nor a functioning government. It is ruled by the various armed groups which control different bits of territory along the Thai border. Their leaders decide who can start or run a business, using their profits to help pay their battles with the Myanmar military or against one another. Many of them are known to be hosting scam compounds.

Jonathan Mind/BBC He Yingxiong who is running Shwe Kokko stands in front of a wooden fence with a field and city in the backgroundJonathan Mind/BBC
Jonathan Mind/BBC A view of the villa that is being used by He Yingxiong who is currently running Shwe Kokko. A decking area with woven chairs overlooks a river and green trees on the other sideJonathan Mind/BBC

Mr. He acknowledged that the war had allowed Yatai to purchase the land for such a low price. Karen human rights groups have accused Saw Chit Thu of driving the original inhabitants off their land, with minimal compensation, though it is clear Yatai is also providing badly needed jobs for the locals.

The lawlessness of Karen State appeals to illegal businesses, but that doesn’t help Shwe Kokko’s reputation.

Neither do recent headlines.

A 22-year-old Chinese actor, Wang Xing, was duped into Thailand with an offer to work on a movie shoot, and last month he was freed from a scam center on the border. His disappearance spurred a barrage of questions on Chinese social media, forcing the Thai and Chinese authorities to mount a joint operation to free him.

Chinese tourists have been putting off travel to Thailand because they worry for their safety. Other rescues have followed. Some scam victims have emailed the BBC asking for assistance, and rescue organizations claim there are still thousands of people trapped. Nearly all are in smaller compounds along the border south of Shwe Kokko.

Yatai emphasized to us that they are not the same as these heinous operations, which are essentially a collection of sheds constructed in forest clearings. That is where all the bad things happen now, they said. They discussed Dongmei, a cluster of low-rise buildings run by a well-known Chinese crime lord known as Wan Kuok Koi, also known as Broken Tooth, and KK Park, a notorious compound south of the border town of Myawaddy.

That distinction hasn’t helped She Zhijiang, who once had the ear of politicians, police bosses and even minor royalty in Thailand. He appears to have lost even the influence he once had in prison today to obtain special privileges. He has complained of being roughed up by the guards.

His attorneys are contesting the Interpol red notice used to justify his arrest, but China’s voice will likely be the one that will determine his fate.

From our interview with him, Shi Zhijiang seemed genuinely outraged over his sudden reversal of fortune.

” Before, I had no understanding of human rights, but now I really understand how horrible it is to have human rights violated,” he said. ” It is hard to imagine how the human rights of ordinary people in China are trampled upon when a respected businessman like me, who used to be able to go to the same state banquets as Xi Jinping, does not have his human rights and dignity protected in any way”.

It appears he actually believed he could create something that would, one day, transcend Shwe Kokko’s vile beginnings as a scam city.

What happens to it now is hard to guess, but if the Thai and Chinese governments keep acting to shut down the scams, the money will start to dry up.

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Trump’s Gaza ‘ownership’ critics wrong to tout Marshall Plan model – Asia Times

Many people who oppose President Trump’s plan to renew Gaza lack a clear knowledge of what he meant by “owning”? Were the vendors involved in building roads, valves, apartments, and commercial properties instead of caves?

While numerous critics argue against the totally unimportant and ineffective subtitute idea of using the Marshall Plan to reconstruct Gaza, even though the historical original appears to have only had a passing impact upon closer inspection. &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp,

Recall that at the end of World War II, when Berlin and Dresden were in remains, the Allies&nbsp, stayed in command, &nbsp, executing Nazi officials and de-radicalizing Germany ( the way they did in Japan ), changing significantly the country’s organizations.

But, contrary to modern myths, the Marshall Plan’s influence in revitalizing Germany was trifling.

Never mind that Middle Eastern players and UN agencies then pounce on its perceived validity as a unit, with even the Jerusalem Post reporting as if money were the main issue with such a program.

They all omit some details, among people that the US and Allies “owned” Germany and Japan for a few years.

Between 1944 and 1948, Eastern and Central Europe had expelled approximately 12 million experienced Europeans whose families had resided there for a long time. The majority of those were resettled in West Germany.

In 1945-6, after the war ended, West Germany faced economic conflict, with prices raging at 19, 000 percent per month, dark industry thriving, and a tax rate at a confiscatory 95 % at relatively low wages.

Germany changed its fiscal and monetary policies considerably. Ludwig Erhard, West Germany’s new finance minister, in 1948 stabilized the coin and carried out extreme fiscal changes, considerably lowering tax rates and scrapping cost controls. According to The Deutsche Bundesbank, the changes” changed women’s lives from one day to the future.”

The Marshall Plan was simply put into effect in 1948. &nbsp, From 1948 to 1951, the US contributed$ 13.2 billion to German treatment. Of that,$ 3.2 billion went to the United Kingdom,$ 2.7 billion to France,$ 1.5 billion to Italy, and only$ 1.4 billion to the Western-occupied zones of Germany.

Additionally, decades of research have demonstrated that the Marshall Plan did not provide funding for the restoration of the city’s crumbling equipment. Instead, the reconstruction was quite little full before the strategy was executed. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Although no doubt the$ 1.4 billion offered some assistance ( and there is no point showing what percentage of the “gross national product” it reflected, since the latter was utterly mismeasured and underestimated ), what brought about the post-World War II West German miracle was Erhard’s policies combined with the&nbsp, massive arrival of skilled people.

For “miracles” happened around the world when significant numbers of people arrived in specific locations. They were unrelated to any foreign support.

The mystery of 17th-century Europe was neither Spain nor Portugal – both of which fit the “finding gold” mildew– but below-sea-level Amsterdam and Holland, whose fortunes were created despite normal hurdles.

Immigrants, some of whom were or became merchants and bankers, were drawn to the new republic because of its unprecedented openness to all religions and its laws allowing the practice of finance ( Amsterdam had the world’s first stock market ). Immigrants and Huguenots, discriminated against somewhere in Europe, were popular among them.

Many of the money flowing into Amsterdam was both owned by foreigners or by Amsterdamers of foreign descent. They transformed Amsterdam into the monetary and trading hub of the 17th-century world.

Perhaps this is what Trump, the president of another nation whose development has benefited from such immigration, is trying to convey when he uses the term “ownership” despite the absence of any indications that qualified individuals from other countries may immigrate to Gaza or that any governing body that might be established that would do any shifting policies.

Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan’s histories are similar to those of Germany after World War II and of Amsterdam in the 17th century. The state provided an umbrella of law and order, imposed relatively low taxes, and gave people stakes in what the business society was doing, which was able to draw in immigrants and businesspeople from all over the world.

At the start of the 19th century, Sir Stamford Raffles built Singapore as a port and supported it with an open-to-allracial educational system. &nbsp, Trade and security brought prosperity to the penniless immigrants from Indonesia and, in particular, China.

Immigration opportunities were provided to immigrants in China’s densely populated Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong, which were initially dominated by warlords and a status-conscious bureaucracy and later by a communist bureaucracy.

Hong Kong benefited from the waves of Chinese immigrants, particularly the inflow of Shanghai merchants and financiers when Mao Zedong “liberated” China in 1949.

Of course, the example of Israel, which decentralized and opened its financial markets from the late 1980s ( turning into the” Start-up Nation” ) and benefited from waves of skilled immigrants, fits the historical patterns of previous centuries. &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp,

None of these historical experiments have a chance of being compared to Gaza or, for that matter, the majority of the Middle East.

It is important to discard perhaps once and for all the” Marshall Plan” government-foreign-aid-aggrandizing mythology as a solution for failed societies. &nbsp, It is as important to use words with precision – such as just what “ownership” or” control” may mean and whether or not it is applicable to start with.

As of now Hamas, Hetzbollah and theocratic Iran are labeled as “terrorist” organizations or” axis of evil”, but with no Nuremberg trials on the horizon for their leaders. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Briefly: No matter which way one looks at Gaza, Marshall Plans,” controls” ( in the post-World War II sense ), “ownerships” and expectations of “miracles” are nonstarters. &nbsp, Nobody wants to move there although if Egypt, or Jordan with a majority-Palestinian population already, opened their borders, perhaps some Gazans would move there.

The article draws on Brenner’s books Force of Finance ( 2001 ) and Labyrinths of Prosperity ( 1994 ) and his articles” Venture Capital in Canada”, ( 2010 ), and” Venture Capital Secret Sauce” ( 2019 ).

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Strategic action to save Korea is urgently needed: India’s moment – Asia Times

South Korea, a global economic superpower and a key player in international politics, faces an extremely intricate web of problems spanning cultural, economic, political, and political regions.

The country’s remarkable tenacity in conquering past difficulties is now seriously threatened by the country’s security, prosperity, and democratic credentials.

If urgent action is never taken, South Korea threats a possible collapse – which could have far-reaching effects, destabilizing the whole area.

Multitude of problems

South Korea’s beginning level, which is among the lowest in the world, is one of the most pressing societal issues South Korea is currently facing. The government’s total fertility rate dropped to an alarming 0.72 in 2023, far below the substitute level of 2.1. The causes for this pattern include the high cost of living, job insecurity, intensive work culture and identity disparity in childcare responsibilities.

The upward trend has not changed, threatening long-term cultural security, despite government incentives like increased parental leave and cash allowances for new born children.

South Korea continues to struggle with one of the highest suicide rates among developed countries in addition to the low birth rate. South Korea has the highest death rate among its member states, according to the OECD. Intense intellectual pressure, workplace stress, cultural isolation, and a stigmatized mental health are just a few examples of factors that contribute to this crisis.

While the government has made efforts to enhance mental health care, more extensive measures are required to address the root causes of Asian society’s stress and depression.

South Korea’s cultural crisis is compounded by its swift transition into a aging society. Nearly 40 % of the population is anticipated to be 65 or older by 2050, which will cause a shrinking workforce and put an extra strain on social security systems. The healthcare industry will need substantial changes to accommodate the growing elderly people, while the pension system is under enormous pressure.

The government has tried to overcome these obstacles by increasing multiculturalism and introducing technology in business, but they still face significant challenges. The combined effects of these socioeconomic shifts are significant, having an impact on almost every aspect of daily life in South Korea.

South Korea’s financial growth has slowed in recent years. From being one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, its GDP growth rate has declined to around 2 % yearly. Its ability to sustain long-term growth is limited by structural challenges like an overreliance on large conglomerates ( chaebols ), stagnant domestic consumption, and the aging workforce.

According to fierce competition from China and US protectionist policies, South Korea’s trade deficit, a standard strength, has been declining. China, after a major export place, is now a formidable rival in areas such as semiconductors, manufacturing and electric vehicles.

North Korean businesses have also been forced to reconsider their global supply chain methods as a result of the US Inflation Reduction Act and various protectionist measures.

Also, South Korea’s home debt-to-GDP ratio is one of the highest in the world, exceeding 100 %. Real estate speculation, fueled by low-interest levels in the past, has led to increased saving. Many families are struggling to support their debt as interest rates rise to fight inflation, which causes further financial instability in the economy. The market is rapidly nearing a crucial tipping&nbsp, point.

South Korea’s social landscape has likewise sharply divided between the traditional and the progressive sides, with razor-sharp ideological divisions. New elections have been marked by extreme political conflict, hampering efficient governance and plan implementation. This fragmentation has even resulted in numerous legislative gridlocks, making it challenging to move significant economic and social reforms.

South Korean politicians are still impacted by the social filibusters. The impeachment of President Park Geun-hye in 2017 set a precedent for democratic uncertainty. There is a constant risk of more political instability, which was diminish investor confidence and thwart economic reforms as a result of public outcry and calls for accountability.

South Korea continues to struggle with the danger from North Korea. Pyongyang has continued its missile testing and nuclear progress, heightening local conflicts. Despite political work, including previous conferences and relationship techniques, North Korea shows little interest in disarmament. South Korea, along with its allies, must manage this risk carefully to ensure regional security.

South Korea is caught between the United States and China, whose rivalries are growing more intense. China continues to be its largest trading lover despite South Korea being a significant US alliance. It has become extremely challenging to balance security interests with economic dependencies, which has made South Korea to follow a cautious political position.

Although the Yoon administration’s efforts to improve South Korea-Japan relations are also rife with traditional grievances. Issues like trade restrictions and forced labour reparations continue to cause political tensions. More cooperation between the two countries is necessary given the shared safety issues that North Korea and China face.

Growing proper principles

A never-before-seen integration of crises Korea&nbsp, is facing immediately threatens both the stability and growth of the nation and the peace and security of the entire area.

Each of these problems –economic, social, political and security-related – is fierce on its own. However, their parallel event amplifies the dangers, making it extremely difficult for South Korea to navigate them separately.

South Koreans have been working hard to overcome these difficulties for some time. But, instead of finding solutions, they have watched the troubles increase – indicating that the condition may include escalated beyond the president’s power.

If these difficulties remain unsolved, the consequences may be severe. The region’s crumbling US-led security system could lead to a perilous power vacuum, leading to territorial disputes and economic recessions, and escalating conflicts fueled by traditional grievances.

The US and China’s ongoing power struggle for dominance in the Indo-Pacific could lead to direct military attrition, which would worsen the area.

The potential for nuclear issue is one of the biggest risks. North Korea’s expanding nuclear features pose an ever-present threat, and any local volatility increases the risk of escalation. A nuclear problems would not only destroy the Korean Peninsula, but it would also pose a serious threat to international security.

Beyond the political consequences, a weakened South Korea did give shockwaves through the global market. Continuations in supply stores, financial markets, and important business was stifle global economic growth. A cultural and humanitarian crises may also arise, causing more anguish to spread throughout the area.

A social responsibility

South Korea’s state is now in charge of saving it from this crisis, which has also become a shared responsibility of regional and international partners. A firm South Korea is essential for peace, success, and protection in the Indo-Pacific. The urgency of the situation necessitates fast and decisive action to prevent the region from slipping into chaos and ensure that the hard-earned development of the North Korean people over the past 75 years is certainly lost.

Without prompt response and assistance, the crisis could spiral out of control, putting millions of lives in danger, and destabilizing the world order. South Korea’s partners must act now – before it is too late.

India: a viable partner

The South Korean political crisis is not just a one-time event, but a sign of larger social and economic issues. Addressing these fundamental issues is crucial to ensuring long-term political stability and economic growth.

South Korea maintains strong partnerships with three key nations – the United States, Japan, and India. Although the US and Japan have long-standing allies, neither have the specific resources or strategic planning South Korea so urgently needs.

India’s role as a key partner in South Korea’s efforts to overcome its current difficulties and emerge stronger is unique because it is uniquely placed to offer comprehensive support in crucial areas.

1. Young human capital: a solution to Korea’s demographic crisis

With a population that is among the lowest in the world and an aging population, South Korea is in serious need of a serious demographic crisis. In contrast, India boasts the world’s largest and youngest workforce, with a median age of just 28. By strengthening ties with India, South Korea can tap into this vast talent pool, addressing labor shortages in critical sectors such as technology, healthcare, and manufacturing.

Neither the US nor Japan, both of which struggle with aging populations, can provide this crucial resource. South Korea has a unique opportunity to maintain its economic momentum thanks to India’s young and highly skilled workforce.

2. A massive market for Korean products

South Korea’s economy is heavily reliant on exports, particularly in electronics, automobiles, and consumer goods. Although the United States and Japan remain significant trade partners, their aging populations and shifting consumption patterns preclude growth in the future.

India, with its 1.4 billion people and rapidly expanding middle class, offers an enormous and untapped market for Korean businesses. Samsung, Hyundai, and LG have already had a lot of success in India, but the potential is still great, particularly in rural and semi-urban areas.

For South Korea’s economy to remain competitive, it needs a large, growing and welcoming market – one free from political constraints. Both the US and Japan offer the same level of opportunity as India.

3. Affordable and skilled labor for Korean industries

Manufacturing is becoming more expensive as a result of rising labor costs in South Korea. China was once a preferred location for outsourcing, but tensions between the political and domestic sectors and costlier production have made it less appealing.

India, with its abundant, skilled, and cost-effective workforce, presents a viable alternative for Korean industries. Whether in IT, pharmaceuticals, or heavy manufacturing, India offers a competitive production hub that ensures quality and efficiency – something neither Japan nor the US can match.

4. A trustworthy mediator in the negotiations for a free Korea

North Korea’s long-term stability depends on maintaining peaceful relations with it. Japan and the US have strategic interests in the area, but their historically antagonistic stance toward Pyongyang makes them unreliable mediators.

India, on the other hand, maintains diplomatic ties with both North and South Korea. One of the few nations that can facilitate dialogue and economic cohesion between the two Koreas is through acting as a neutral mediator. India is the only major power that can help if South Korea genuinely seeks reconciliation, without carrying the baggage of historical conflicts.

5. A gateway to emerging markets

Emerging markets in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia are becoming crucial for future growth as the world economic landscape changes. India, with its deep ties to these regions, can serve as South Korea’s bridge to these high-potential markets.

Through trade agreements, joint ventures and technology partnerships, Korea can leverage India’s strategic position to expand its economic footprint globally. Can America and Japan accomplish this? The simple and&nbsp, obvious answer is no. The US and Japan, focused primarily on developed markets, lack the same reach and flexibility in these emerging economies.

Both Japan and the US face their own economic and demographic challenges, limiting their ability to fully address Korea’s &nbsp, current pressing needs. Moreover, their economic and &nbsp, strategic partnerships with South Korea– while strong – have reached a saturation point, leaving little room for further expansion.

Although the US and Japan may offer targeted military support and investments, they are unable to provide India with holistic solutions. South Korea requires a partner with its long-term goals in terms of both economic and geopolitical affairs. India is that partner.

At this critical moment, India stands as one of the most capable nations in addressing South Korea’s economic, demographic, and geopolitical challenges. Strengthening India-Korea ties is not just an option. It is a strategic imperative.

If South Korea seeks sustainable growth, economic resilience, and regional stability, it must look toward India as its most natural and reliable partner for the future. Likewise, Indian policymakers must recognize South Korea’s strategic importance in the Indo-Pacific. A destabilized Korea would have severe consequences, directly impacting India’s regional interests.

Expecting Japan or the US to lead the charge to protect South Korea is unfeigned, and Indian policymakers must avoid making this error. These countries ‘ ability to provide substantial support is limited by their domestic difficulties and shifting global priorities.

It is time for India to step forward&nbsp, and take the lead—not just for its own strategic interests, but for the peace and stability of the entire Indo-Pacific region. Any change in power on the Korean Peninsula might have disastrous effects for India. Indian policymakers are forewarned: The time to act is now!

As the saying goes,” A friend in need is a friend indeed”.

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Thais top online shopping survey

Some 96.2% of surveyed Thai internet users make a purchase online every week. (Photo: 123RF)
Almost 96.2 % of Thai internet users surveyed make an online purchase every year. ( Photo: 123RF )

According to the Digital 2025 statement from innovative digital company We Are Social and media checking firm Meltwater, Thailand is the world leader for online shopping and regular online grocery purchases. It is also one of the best nations for wireless app spending.

Yet, the country ranks ill on data privacy issues. &nbsp,

Thailand has 99.5 million wireless connections, with 65.4 million online users and 51 million social media users. The Thai people is 71.6 million, according to the investigation. &nbsp,

Some 96.2 % of Thai respondents (older than 16 ) make a purchase online every week, the highest rate globally. The others in the top five are South Korea, the UAE, Malaysia and China at 64 %, 63.6 %, 62.9 % and 62.5 % respectively, while the global average is 55.8 %. &nbsp,

In terms of average online revenue of consumer goods in 2024, Thailand’s e-commerce average revenue per user ( ARPU) was US$ 1, 183, lower than the global average of$ 1, 620. The US, Italy and the Netherlands were the top three at$ 4, 470,$ 3, 290 and$ 3, 190.

Some 68.3 % of Thais use mobile devices for e-commerce purchases, while 31.7 % use desktops.

Thailand was also ranked first worldwide for weekly online grocery purchases, with 45 % of Thai respondents doing so, followed by South Korea with 43 % and the UAE with 39 %. &nbsp, &nbsp,

The global ARPU for online grocery shopping in 2024 was$ 450, with the US, Hong Kong and Australia among the top three at$ 1, 740,$ 1, 360 and$ 1, 092. Thailand’s Profitability was$ 188, below the world average. &nbsp,

Thailand’s digital media license and get Revenues was$ 89 last year, less than the$ 93 average worldwide.

Regarding online ride-hailing Profitability for 2024, Thais spent$ 94, slightly higher than the global average at$ 93.5. The US, Singapore and Switzerland were the top spenders for online ride-hailing at$ 590,$ 366 and$ 339 respectively.

In terms of social media use, Thais spend an average of 2.23 time everyday on social media, topping the global average of 2.21 time. &nbsp,

Thais were No. 2 for YouTube consumption at 42.1 days per month, behind solely South Korea at 43.3 time.

On average, Thais spend 16.23 days per month on Instagram on Android devices, less than the world average of 17.17 time.

Thailand ranked eighth in terms of Facebook consumption, with 50.9 million people. &nbsp,

Thailand has the largest marketing budgets of 34 million dollars, which ranks among the top 15 nations. The US, Indonesia and Brazil are among the top three with 135 million, 107 million and 91 million both. &nbsp,

The nation also offers one of the lowest fixed files plans, starting at$ 11.60 per month, as per the review, and is ranked ninth worldwide for the fastest fixed internet connection speed, with a median save acceleration of 239 megabits per second.

Thais ranked 14th worldwide for consumer spending on wireless applications between September and Nov 30, 2024, at$ 356 million. &nbsp,

Thais were 10th worldwide for use of chat and message service, at 98 % of online users per month.

Additionally, according to the report, 25.8 % of Thai internet users are concerned about how businesses collect and use their personal information. &nbsp,

This is lower than the 29.9 % common worldwide. Spain, Portugal and Brazil are among the top three with 51.5 %, 50.8 % and 48.3 % respectively.

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