How does China fix the Evergrande mess?

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Evergrande headquarters is seen in Shenzhen, southeastern China on September 14, 2021.EPA
By Nick Marsh
Asia Business Correspondent

The Chinese property developer Evergrande owes more than $325bn (£269bn). That’s more than Russia’s entire national debt.

For two years, the company has been lurching from crisis to crisis, repeatedly failing to make payments on its multi-billion dollar loans.

Now its billionaire chairman is under police surveillance, its shares are practically worthless and more than a million people in China are still waiting for their homes to be completed. On Monday, a court in Hong Kong could open a new chapter in the crisis by ordering the liquidation of some of Evergrande assets to pay back frustrated foreign investors.

Evergrande has become the poster child of China’s flailing real estate sector. Its name, along with other major developers such as Country Garden, has become associated with unsustainable debt and impending financial disaster. Yet, Evergrande clings to survival.

In most Western countries, a failing privately-owned business such as Evergrande would either be liquidated or, in extreme cases, bailed out by the government. But things are done differently in China.

The world’s second-largest economy is neither capitalist nor communist. It is unique, which makes it hard to predict Evergrande’s fate.

But for now, Beijing has eased pressure on the firm in ways other countries cannot.

“It’s alive only because the government hasn’t let it die,” says Leland Miller, chief executive of China Beige Book, an analytical platform that tracks the Chinese marketplace.

Zombie mode

Unlike Western countries, China is not a free market. When a problem arises, Mr Miller explains, the state can simply move tidal waves of money to patch it up.

The majority of the money Evergrande owes is to creditors in China, including ordinary homeowners, suppliers and banks. And the government’s control over them is key to explaining the company’s zombie-like state.

“The banking system in China is still almost exclusively state-run,” says Dexter Roberts, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. “So if Beijing tells those banks to find a way to roll over the debt, then they’re going to do that. Ultimately, they answer to the state and they’re well aware of that.”

Mr Miller agrees: “The Chinese state can order lenders to lend, suppliers to supply, borrowers to borrow. Evergrande is neither dead nor alive, but in this system it doesn’t really matter.”

Not all of Evergrande’s creditors are Chinese. A small group of frustrated lenders outside of China have scheduled a court hearing in Hong Kong on 30 October. A judge could order a liquidation of company assets to be distributed to these foreign creditors.

A Country Garden real estate project in Yangpu District, Shanghai, China, 16 September 2023.

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However, this would be unprecedented in scale and complexity. And it would almost certainly need the approval of Chinese authorities.

So what happens to Evergrande? Some analysts say that China’s leadership is yet to decide.

“A lot of the Chinese system is still modelled on the Soviet Union and there were no bankruptcies in the Soviet Union,” says Logan Wright, director of China Market Research at Rhodium Group.

“You have to remember that Western capitalism has had a long time to establish a process for failed companies and how you manage their debts. In China, there isn’t the same kind of template.”

The Chinese government could let Evergrande collapse. But, according to Mr Roberts, Beijing would then have to clean up the mess, which would be a huge political headache.

The knock-on effects for local governments – which rely on land sales – suppliers and banks would be “potentially catastrophic”, he added.

Other analysts argue that Evergrande’s collapse, if it were to happen, could hurt the future of the Communist Party itself.

“Social stability is at stake,” says Shitong Qiao, an expert in Chinese property law at Duke University in the US.

“A collapse would not just leave many Chinese banks with bad debt, it would also leave hundreds of thousands of Chinese homebuyers without an apartment that they have paid for.”

On more than one occasion, there have been chaotic scenes at Evergrande’s headquarters in Shenzhen, when protesters scolded executives and home buyers demanded refunds on their purchases. Last year, many of them joined a mortgage strike until their homes were completed.

A collapse could shatter confidence in the housing market, plunging prices further. That would leave people noticeably poorer in a country where they invest their life-savings in new homes. And it would be a blow to an already sluggish economy – the property sector accounts for a quarter of it.

All of this could lead to more public anger and even instability. And that is perhaps the biggest threat to the Party, whose grip on power has long been bolstered by China’s prosperity.

Too big to fail?

Does that mean Evergrande is – to borrow a Western phrase – “too big to fail”.

It is tempting to draw parallels with the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, which saw the collapse of Wall Street investment giant Lehman Brothers and a global recession. Back then failing banks and institutions around the world were bailed out by their governments and central banks.

A worker walks past a housing complex under construction by Chinese property developer Evergrande in Wuhan, China on 28 September 2023.

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But China is different. Its financial system is not as enmeshed with the property sector as it is in the US.

And Beijing, which has firm control over money flows, seems in no rush to bail out Evergrande.

“The system is designed to ensure that an acute crisis will always be very unlikely,” Mr Miller says. “It’s not susceptible to a western-style ‘Lehman moment'”.

A bailout would also not fit with the ideology of China’s leadership. In fact, some argue that the Party deliberately triggered Evergrande’s decline because the firm’s success relied on a flawed economic model.

Evergrande’s rise was fuelled by heavy borrowing to build houses for middle-class Chinese looking to make money from property. But property developers borrowed too much money to build too many houses that not enough people want to buy.

“This is not a sustainable economic model and the government knew this,” Mr Roberts says.

This “investment-led growth” – or building for building’s sake – drove China’s rise well before Xi Jinping came to power in 2012.

But over time the Party’s refrain, encouraged by Mr Xi, became “houses are for living in, not for speculation”.

Things came to a head in 2020 when the government, fearing a bubble in the property market, introduced new financial regulatory guidelines, known as its “three red lines”.

They severely restricted developers’ ability to borrow more money, eventually causing the crisis that has mired Evergrande and the rest of China’s property sector.

For China’s leaders, the painful but necessary measure was the only way to rein in unsustainable debt. Except they didn’t anticipate how much worse it would get, especially as China’s economy took a hit from sweeping zero-Covid lockdowns.

“But still, bailing out Evergrande now would effectively make a mockery of everything the government is trying to do in terms of de-leveraging the sector and changing the economy,” Mr Roberts says.

A Country Garden project in Fuyang city, East China's Anhui province, on 3 September, 2023.

Getty Images

Mr Wright agrees it would be seen as a backward step: “What kind of signal are you sending to the rest of the industry if you bail out Evergrande?”

In other words, China’s leadership is stuck. A collapse would be disastrous and a bailout would be ideologically untenable.

“This may be a contrarian view – but I absolutely believe Beijing has a strategy here,” Mr Miller says.

“For years foreign investors have lectured Beijing that it needs to stop relying on artificially high levels of growth driven by property sector borrowing. Now that the Party is finally doing that – it was never going to be a painless process.”

What new model Mr Xi, who has increasingly centralised power in his hands, wants is unclear.

At last year’s Party Congress, when he secured a historic third term as leader, he warned against continuing China’s “unsustainable” economic model, driven by what he calls “money worship” and “vested interests”. Rebuking the dangers of unfettered capitalism, he said: “The leadership of the Communist Party of China is the defining feature of socialism with Chinese characteristics.”

Amid the chaos of Evergrande, the arrest of its billionaire founder and chairman Hui Ka Yan reinforced the idea that the Party, rather than private businessmen, is still firmly in charge.

According to Mr Miller, China is consciously paying the price for “gross economic mismanagement”, but its continued grip over the economy suggests it has a plan.

But others insist that is not so clear.

“Capitalism is a profit and loss system,” Mr Wright says. “It will be interesting to see how China deals with the losses part”.

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Multilateral development banks hold key to solving climate crisis

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When climate ministers from nearly 200 countries descend on the United Arab Emirates for a UN climate summit in late November, some hard conversations will need to be had on what has – and what hasn’t – been done to mitigate climate change on a global scale.

This year’s event is of particular importance. The 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) faces a reckoning as it takes stock of progress toward the goals of the Paris Agreement, which set out to limit the average warming across the globe to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius and to pursue efforts to cap warming to 1.5 degrees.

On September 8, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) released the Technical Document on Global Stocktake, a sort of check-in on what countries have done so far to prevent a more dangerous climate change. Two findings in this document stand out, and they will feed into the outcomes of the COP28 summit.    

First, global emissions are not on track with the desired targets of the Paris Agreement. The UNFCCC’s 2022 Nationally Determined Contributions Synthesis report found that the global emissions are set to rise by 10.6% by 2030 compared with 2010, an improvement from the 2021 projections of 13.7% increase.

However, these efforts are not enough and implementation of current pledges by national governments put the world on track to become 2.5 degrees warmer by the end of the century. COP28 will have to reach a consensus for further reductions in emissions targets, especially by the developed world.

Poor access to funding

This brings us to the second key issue raised by the Global Stocktake. The shift to low-emission energy sources has been too slow. This lag is primarily because of a lack of technology and insufficient climate financing options, especially for developing and low-income nations. Poor countries face obstacles in generating local resources for climate initiatives. The absence of loans from the private sector poses a significant barrier.

The creditworthiness of a nation is generally gauged through macroeconomic parameters and past repayment histories. Unfortunately, many developing nations wrestle with issues related to low GDP, political instability and poor fiscal management, affecting their credit ratings adversely.

Even when loans are secured, they often come with exorbitantly high interest rates, further exacerbating their economic strain. The lack of adequate financing not only hampers their ability to implement crucial climate mitigation and adaptation strategies but also restricts their capacity to participate in global climate initiatives, perpetuating a cycle of environmental degradation and economic hardship.

Moreover, the scant finances often must be juggled between immediate socioeconomic concerns and long-term climate actions, presenting a complex conundrum for policymakers.

Developing countries need better access to institutionalized climate finance. The financial commitments essential for combating climate change are in disarray. The 2009 pledge to mobilize US$100 billion annually for developing nations by 2020 has not been achieved in any single year.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) estimates available funding for the year 2020 at a paltry $83.3 billion, a figure that underscores the systemic failure to honor even the most basic commitments. Further, more public funds flow from developed to developing nations for mitigation rather than adaptation.

However, there has been a rise in adaptation finance from multilateral development banks (MDBs), which include such institutions as the as the World Bank and the Islamic Development Bank.

The OECD’s “Towards Orderly Green Transition” report indicates that by 2030, an extra $1.8 trillion annually is required for climate action, representing a quadrupling (toward adaptation, resilience and mitigation) from 2019 levels, primarily for sustainable infrastructure.

That is where MDBs come in. They can substantively address the climate financing challenges faced by developing and low-income countries by amalgamating financial support, technical expertise and policy advice to bolster necessary reforms and resources.

Their capacity to work cohesively with both governments and the private sector facilitates a framework for investment, while their aptitude for providing low-cost, extended-maturity financing mitigates and efficiently shares risks, thereby enticing private investment.

However, the disbursements by MDBs have been lagging, and the current extent of resource transfer to developing countries is inadequate. Unlike many institutions that consistently seek to enhance their reach and efficiency, MDBs appear to have stagnated in their efforts.

In financial terms, MDBs’ gross disbursements are currently half what they were in 1990 relative to the GDP of borrowing countries. On the private-sector front, MDBs now mobilize just $0.60 in private capital for each dollar they lend. Thus MDBs need to reform.

An independent expert group commissioned under India’s G20 presidency has crafted a strategy for MDBs. Tasked with producing two reports, the initial “Triple Agenda” emphasizes the role of MDBs in merging development and climate goals, partnering with governments and businesses to mitigate risks, and becoming more adaptable.

MDBs should enhance their operations, considering disbursements and resources are now below 1990 ratios. The group suggests a tripartite strategy: MDBs should focus on eradicating poverty, boosting shared wealth and aiding global issues like climate change.

There’s also a call to triple sustainable lending by 2030 and introduce a novel funding approach (apart from negotiated equity contributions from sovereign shareholders and discretionary trust funds) to foster versatile collaborations with investors aligned with the MDB agenda.

COP28 needs to advance this issue. Without climate finance for developing countries, Paris Agreement goals won’t be met. The UAE will have a crucial role to take this agenda forward.

This article was provided by Syndication Bureau, which holds copyright.

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Banks, telcos or consumers – who will bear phishing scam losses under proposed framework? Here are 4 scenarios

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As a rule of thumb, financial institutions, followed by telcos, will be expected to bear the full losses incurred from such digitally enabled phishing scams, should they fail to discharge their respective prescribed duties, said MAS and IMDA in a joint press statement on Wednesday. “Financial institutions stand first inContinue Reading

States, hackers agree: Laws of war must apply in cyberspace

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There are laws of war. With the aim of defending citizens and reducing suffering, international humanitarian law governs what soldiers are permitted to do and are not allowed to.

The 19th and 20th centuries saw the development of the majority of these rules. The realm of cyberattacks, modern campaigns, and online information operations, however, has emerged in our era as a new kind of field. All of these have played a bigger part in the current Israel-Has issue as well as Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The idea that cyberspace is a violent wild west persists. This is completely untrue. Existing laws of war are clearly applicable online, according to a distinct global consensus.

Three major advancements in this area have occurred over the past month. The term” civililian hackers” has started to gain popularity. Governments, tech firms, and others are advised to move forward in accordance with a recent global philanthropic report. And for the first day, the International Criminal Court has indicated that it views cyber-warfare as falling under its purview.

Guidelines for hacktivists

A set of guidelines for” civililian hackers” during war were put forth on October 4 by two advisers to the International Committee of the Red Cross. Do not carry out any cyberoperations against health and humanitarian services, and when planning a cyberattack against military targets, take all reasonable precautions to prevent or lessen the effects your activity may have on civilians.

Proof of online attacks disrupting banks, businesses, pharmacies, hospitals, rail networks, and civil government services served as the authors’ inspiration.

Along with” real – earth” military operations, computer, online, and data procedures have become more widely used during Russia’s war in Ukraine. Human organizations that are not formally affiliated with the government conduct a lot of operations.

These actions aren’t particularly impressive. However, it was never our understanding that a catastrophic cyberattack was essential to Russia’s use of offensive cyber in their military doctrine, according to Jeremy Fleming, former head of Government Communications Headquarters ( GCHQ ), the electronic spy agency of the United Kingdom. then misinterprets how cyber affects military campaigns.

Not that we haven’t witnessed computer in this fight, though. We have a ton of it.

Something unusual occurred following the publication of the suggested guidelines for civilian hackers.

The Russian-affiliated Killnet and the Russian IT Army are two of the biggest hacktivist organizations positively fighting in Ukraine on opposing sides. Both groups’ representatives pledged to uphold the rules to the British Broadcasting Corporation.

threats from modern weapons during armed conflict

The laws of war in internet must be followed by more than just actors in Ukraine and hacktivist organizations.

The final statement from the International Committee of the Red Cross’s world advisory board on online threats during military conflicts was released on October 18.

Two years of work have culminated in the document. The board is made up of a diversified group of political professionals, including myself, the United States, Russia, China, South Africa, Mexico, India, and Australia.

We worked on the” global consensus that all aspects of war and all types of arms, whether new or old, electronic or physical ,” must adhere to the established principles and rules of[ international humanitarian law ].

The statement includes 25 action-oriented recommendations for belligerents, states, technology companies, and charitable organizations to protect civilians from online threats.

The United Nations has acknowledged since 2013 that what says do in cyberspace is subject to current global legislation.

The application of the laws of war to digital operations was directly acknowledged by Russia, China, the US, Australia, and every other nation in the UN in 2021.

The ICRC, whose goal is to” reduce suffering by promoting and strengthening humanitarian law and universal humanitarian principles ,” has repeatedly stated this, including in the information mentioned above.

The International Criminal Court weighs in

Of course, following the rules doesn’t stop careless players from breaking them. The next important advancement then enters the picture.

The International Criminal Court’s prosecutor, Karim A. Khan, announced that the jury had start” collecting and reviewing” proof of cyber-warfare in September. Additionally, it may look at” using the Internet to spread hate speech and misinformation, which may encourage or even directly contribute to the onset of atrocities.”

The ICC has never explicitly stated that online abuse and cyberwarfare fall under its purview. This serves as a warning to governments, forces, tech firms, and hacktivists that their actions in internet are not without consequence.

All parties would do well to consider that the laws of cyber-war are apparent as the war in Ukraine dragged on and conflict between Israel and Hamas intensified( including rising reports of cybercrime ).

International humanitarian law applies to bombs or pixels, weapons, or malware.

This content has been republished with a Creative Commons license from The Conversation. read the article in its entirety.

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Big banks linked to products with pangolin and leopard parts

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A stock image of a leopard.shabby pictures
authored by Alex Binley
NBC News

According to a statement, major international banks are investing in businesses that make traditional Chinese medicines with tiger and animal components.

Both species are considered to be in danger.

Nine products that the Environmental Investigation Authority ( EIA ) claims contain leopard or pangolin are being invested in by 62 banks and financial institutions.

The businesses in question have been contacted by the BBC for opinion.

Global investment firms like The Goldman Sachs, UBS, Deutsche Bank, and BlackRock, as well as UK financial services behemoths like HSBC, Prudential, Legal & amp, General, are among the companies.

Lions and animals are in danger, so it is likely that they will go extinct in the near future. In an effort to ensure that their success in the wild is not in danger, both are also listed on the Mentions( Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora ) treaty, which forbids foreign corporate industry in them and their parts.

The three medical firms that are highlighted in the EIA review are Jilin Aodong Pharmaceutical Group, Tianjin Pharmaceutical party, and Tong Ren Tang Group.

Although not all of the businesses listed in the EIA review make investments in all three, they all make at least one.

Leopard bone is used as a tiger bone substitute in traditional Chinese medicine( TCM ). Tiger tooth is thought to help eliminate breeze, strengthen bones and limbs, and relieve pain. Pangolin weights are rumored to improve nursing, blood circulation, and chronic pain relief. Medical evidence does not support these assertions.

Following the report’s release, EIA Legal & amp, Policy Specialist Avinash Basker urged the Chinese government to” fulfill CITES recommendations and forbid the use of leopard, pangolin, tiger, and rhino body parts from all sources for all commercial purposes in its domestic markets.”

” The international community’s CITES tips to protect these types are disregarded when highly threatened animals like leopards, pangolin, elephant, and tigers are used in conventional medicine products.” This is apply on a truly professional scale, which can only bring these species ever-closer to extinction while instantly sending contradictory messages to consumers, increasing demand for their parts and derivatives, and tarnishing TCM’s reputation around the world, he claimed.

A stock image of a pangolin.

shabby pictures

He continued,” It’s especially disheartening to see so many significant banks and financial institutions actually supporting this harmful using, especially given how many have vowed to do otherwise.” ” They need to withdraw from TCM producers using threatened species as soon as possible if their environmental credentials are to have any trust.”

The lion or anteater derivatives were not being sourced, according to the EIA, which claimed it was unable to do so.

” No a direct investment and does not have direct exposure to these organizations ,” according to HSBC in an interview. It also states that HSBC Global Asset Management Canada responded to the EIA statement by saying that its” opportunities in the TCM businesses were limited to passive or” sensor” money rather than actively managed funds.” This implies that funds are immediately invested in stocks based on a linked indicator that they track, such as the FTSE 100.

According to Deutsche Bank, the report is focused on property managers and was directed to DWS, an property management firm that was formerly a part of DB but is now on its own.

According to a statement from DWS, it has” different ESG-related ] environmental, social, and governance” policies that offer instructions on how to incorporate the information from the environment into our investment processes, engagement, or proxy voting activities, where we combine our voting rights for active and passive funds.

There are no positively managed DWS money invested in any of these three manufacturers nationally, according to the statement.

According to Legal & amp, General Investment Management” manages many funds against various index providers to meet a wide range of client demands.”

According to the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Service( IPBES ), which covers the exploitation of wild species,” LGIM is aware that one of the key drivers of nature-loss” is” natural resource use and” exploitation ,” the company said.

In order to address these IPBES owners, we are creating a” nature model” that integrates and discloses high-quality, consistent, location-specific data that relates to business behavior in relation to these important nature-related issues.

BlackRock opted not to say anything.

For reply, the BBC has contacted UBS, Tong Ren Tang, Tianjin Pharmaceutical Group, and Jilin Aodong Pharma Group.

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‘This is not supposed to happen’: Experts on DBS, Citi outage caused by data centre failure

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NEEDED Files, Healing Programs

Due to the significance of the data center, banks generally have a storage facility. Additionally, some businesses have two information centers that simultaneously share the load. If one fails in like circumstances, the different can make up the difference.

There are typically several levels of redundancy for mission-critical applications like banks, according to Dr. Dennis Khoo, managing partner at online firm allDigitalFuture. & nbsp,

According to Dr. Khoo,” In the majority of advanced banks, using the most recent technologies, the database may be quickly replicated, which means they will have a main site and an alternate site, and the data is duplicated suddenly on both sites.” & nbsp,

According to the Singapore Computer Society, the majority of data centers are built with real-time repair capabilities and some degree of reliability. They are also particularly constructed, according to the company, to match the precise duplication requirements of the business.

To reduce potential customer disruption, the world added that a files center’s typical uptime guarantee would typically be 99.982 %. & nbsp,

But, there is still 0.018 percent of outage that could occur. In order for their crucial IT systems and data information to quickly failure to the supplementary data center in the shortest amount of time if such an incident happen, the client may establish an effective Business Continuity Management System and IT Disaster Recovery Plan.

WHAT CAN Businesses DO IF THE Information Areas ARE DOWN?

However, if all data centers fail, there isn’t much — if any — service a bank can offer. & nbsp,

Banks activate what they refer to as” offline mode ,” according to Dr. Thng, which means they provide some services at branch offices using what is available. When the information center is restarted, these purchases are finally updated with the server. & nbsp,

These services may include money deposits, transaction instructions, and credit card transactions, as banks have extra cash on hand. DBS reopened departments to assist customers with some companies. & nbsp,

Dr. Thng claims that everyday This incidents like processing delays happen. Some of these go unrecognized by clients. However, company outages will harm the company’s reputation and possibly have economic repercussions. For instance, if a client receives late fees because they were able to pay their bill on time due to an outage, they may also cause financial losses. & nbsp,

Dr. Khoo claimed that banks would own” broken” their support commitments to offer customers around-the-clock service in terms of social impact.

Therefore, it is certain that your reputation will suffer as a result of your inability to provide excellent customer service. And this is not supposed to happen with suitable style. “& nbsp,

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Three listed Chinese TCM firms used endangered animal parts as ingredients: Report

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SHANGHAI / HONG KONG: According to an environmental organization, three publicly traded Chinese drugmakers have used endangered animal parts as ingredients in their products. These companies are investors in major international banks like UBS and HSBC. The London-based Environmental Investigation Agency urged international buyers in the three companies, Beijing TongContinue Reading

Asia is a ‘bright spot’ for economic growth amid geopolitical tensions, says Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser

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SINGAPORE: According to Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser, Asia continues to be a beautiful spot for the globe despite political unrest, continued wars, and China’s slowing economy.

According to her, the company moves US$ 4 trillion( S$ 5.5 trillion ), or the gross domestic product of Germany, every day for 5,000 foreign corporations, with the majority of that movement and activity occurring in Asia. & nbsp,

” Asia is merely the shining star of the universe.” She continued,” There are so many different regions where the changing dynamics are playing into the longer-term flavor and gain these, get it what we see in Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam. & nbsp,

China is currently facing difficulties, but she noted that the technological advancements the nation has made are” remarkable.”

In Singapore, where” a lot of different innovative paths” are emerging, there are also a number of growth opportunities, she told CNA. Ms. Fraser attended a Citigroup committee meeting in Singapore.

Every day I see them, innovative users in this region of the world astound me. They’re so creative and inventive, and that’s going to create a ton of money as well as economic growth over the medium to long phrase, she said.

She said,” I think you can tell I’m an idealist, especially in this region of the world.” & nbsp,

Ms. Fraser described the financial situation in different markets and stated that both consumer and corporate clients have been in great health in the United States despite the possibility of a crisis there next time.

She pointed out that the labor market and electricity prices in Europe are facing longer-term structural issues.

Ms. Fraser said it was time to position Citigroup for the growth that may occur, especially in Asia, as she leads the company through its most extreme transformation in decades, which includes streamlining the organization and eliminating jobs.

CHOOSING OUR Users

Ms. Fraser also discussed how the Wall Street behemoth maintains its regulation and risk management framework in a time when big banks may occasionally draw bad actors during the extensive appointment.

Citigroup, which has offices in 96 nations, is selective in the users it chooses, she claimed.

The advantage of being on the ground is that you’re not just( based ) on data.” We put a lot of rigor into it. You have a great grasp, she said.

Through its cyber capabilities and forgery recognition, the company has monitoring capabilities to assist clients in protecting against risks or negative actors, she said.

” It’s a great investment that we make, but it does start with being quite picky about who we do business with, making sure we are working with people with good reputations, and keeping them safe ,” Ms. Fraser said.

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Members to vote for new SSO board

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Still unable to attend are expatriate

PUBLISHED: 04: 30 on October 23, 2023.

According to its security general, Boonsong Thapchaiyuth, the Social Security Office ( SSO) has set aside 207 million baht for the election of its first-ever social security board members on December 24.

In order to manage the fund for members, the board serves as a moderator between the government and the Social Security Fund ( SSF ) under the terms of the social security act.

According to the law, the committee is made up of the Budget Bureau, employers and employees, as well as relevant ministries like labor, finance, interior, and public health.

This vote is for SSF users and companies to choose seven representatives each to serve on the table. Recently elected by labor unions, but currently made up of appointees of the now-defunct National Council for Peace and Order.

14 million of the more than 24 million SSF people, according to Niyada Senimanomai, SSO examiner general, will be able to vote, but residents and those who did not submit their funds are not.

According to Mr. Boonsong, potential candidates can register on the SSO webpage from Wednesday through October 31.

According to Chalee Loisung, deputy leader of the Thai Labour Solidarity Confederation( TLSC ), the election was brought about by the 2015 Social Security Act, which established the SSO as an independent organization. He also said that a more transparent government would aid in preventing political interference.

In order to continue their work for laborers’ freedom, some of those advocates are required to sign up as board candidates who represent the individual side.

The Confederation of Thai Labour ( CTL ) president, Manas Kosol, stated that he anticipated that CTL members would be elected to the board so that they could continue developing plans for a labor-specialized bank to assist those who are unable to obtain loans from commercial banks.

The Move Forward Party ( MFP )- led labor team, the Progressive Social Security Team, also expressed interest in registering as candidates.

The party chief agreed to support licenses in order to capitalize on the group’s resounding defeat in the May 14 basic election, according to Suthep Ou – oun, a listed MP from the MFP” workers aircraft.”

Siwawong Sukthawee of the Migrant Working Group, a different member from the Progressive Social Security Team, stated that he disagreed with banning foreign staff from voting.

Vice head of Homenet Thailand, a basis for the advancement of labor, Soontri Hatti Sengking, exhorted SSF people to vote and voice their opinions.

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Hezbollah holds key to a wider Israel-Hamas war

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Lebanon, which is on the verge of economic and political flop, runs the risk of getting caught up in Israel and Hamas’ escalating conflict.

Since Hamas’ surprise attack on October 7, 2023, which resulted in the deaths of almost 1,400 citizens and Israel’s declaration of war the following morning, Hezbollah has been preparing for the possibility of joining the conflict.

The Iranian militant group has repeatedly attacked Zionist targets from Lebanon, drawing fire from the Israeli Defense Forces in retaliation. Over a hundred people have perished, mainly Hezbollah fighters, but there have also been some civilian deaths on both sides of the border, including one who worked for Reuters.

I have concentrated my historical exploration and instruction on the dynamics of Israeli, Palestinian, and Palestinian conflict and assistance.

The now significant violence and destruction in southeastern Israel and Gaza will probably be greatly exacerbated by additional huge casualties in Lebanon, Israel, and possibly other Middle Eastern countries if a war breaks out between Hezbollah and Israel.

Is the well-being of Lebanon or serving as a placeholder for Iran Hezbollah’s decision to completely join the war may provide an answer to the question that has been preoccupying experts of the business for decades.

Hezbollah followers have been gathering in Beirut to aid Palestinians in Gaza. Photo: AP via Bilal Hussein’s The Conversation

A conflict that dates back centuries

Since 1948, the Israeli-Palestinian issue has been escalating into Lebanon as a result of the creation of Israel and the eviction of Palestinians, also known as the Nakba or disaster.

No Arab nation has actually been more impacted by this issue. In 1948, around 100,000 Palestinians sought shelter in Lebanon. They are denied simple right now, and there are approximately 210, 000 of them.

Some Lebanese have expressed resentment toward the Palestinian refugees living in the nation and charge them for the start of the country’s civil war, which lasted from 1975 to 1990, in research. During the battle, an estimated 120, 000 people perished, the marks of which can still be seen in Beirut’s money.

Israel was heavily involved in the civil conflict in Lebanese. It fought against Israeli armies, which used Lebanon as a foundation to start attacks against the Jewish position, and supported Christian militia groups.

Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982 in an effort to overthrow the Palestine Liberation Organization and install a pro-Israeli Religious authorities in Beirut. Neither goal was accomplished.

Hezbollah emerges as the most powerful army in Lebanon.

Lebanon and its politicians have been dominated by a religious program since its founding in 1920, in which government and state jobs are divided among the 18 formally recognized religious groups, most importantly Sunnis, Maronite Christians, Druze, and Shiites. Each faction has a requirement for representation in the state.

Since 1932, no official census has been conducted, making the Shiite population the largest sect in the nation, accounting for between 30 % and 40 % of the total population. However, an exact number is unknown due to the issue’s sensitivity.

Lebanon’s religious system has produced what academics refer to as” cross sovereignty” for decades. Political leaders who speak on behalf of their sects in a segregated method work both inside and outside of the state machinery by offering their constituents services that are typically handled by the government, such as marriage licenses and armed protection.

In order to combat Israel’s intrusion, Hezbollah was established in 1982 with assistance from Iran and Syria. It is by far the most powerful social, socioeconomic, and military power in the nation. This is a result of Iran’s backing and the strong and cohesive inner social structure among Islamist adherents there. Although not all Shiites identify with Hezbollah, there is no doubt that many of them share its triggers.

Hezbollah also functions as a state unto itself while adhering to the variant structure of the religious system. For instance, it offers Shiites social, academic, and economical services and boasts a military force that is significantly more powerful than the official Lebanese army.

In actuality, Hezbollah has benefited more from this religious cross system than any other party.

many protesters march in downtown beirut carrying lebanese flags
In October 2019, anti-government demonstrations started. Hassan Ammar and AP via The Conversation

Lebanon is in unison

Even under the pressure of the 2011-starting Syrian civil war, Lebanon has managed to maintain some stability and vitality despite its poor state and shattered political system.

Years of Ponzi-like economic mismanagement, increased loans, and a sharp drop in foreign remittances caused the Palestinian economy to collapse in October 2019. It is regarded by the World Bank as one of the worst economic crisis to have occurred since the mid-19th decade.

The” October 17 revolution ,” in which the Lebanese demanded social and economic justice, an end to corruption, and the dismantling of the sectarian political system, was sparked by the crisis and spread across the nation. International donors became concerned as a result, international money fled the nation, banks closed their doors to savers, the government defaulted on its debts, and the local coin fell.

The socioeconomic and political situations in the nation were made worse by a massive explosion at the Beirut port in August 2020 that killed 225 people and caused billions of dollars in destruction. Additionally, the Palestinian political structure has been completely dysfunctional since October 2022 due to the political class’s failure to agree on a new leader and government.

Hezbollah has emerged as a steadfast keeper of the social system that supported it and has been least impacted by the country’s national problems among political forces.

Some people now view Lebanon as a failed condition, so joining another conflict is the last thing the nation needs.

smoke from an exploded shell obscures the landscape with a village in the background
On October 16, 2023, an Israeli gun barrel detonates over Dahaira, a Palestinian village that borders Israel. AP via Hussein Malla’s The Conversation

” Return to the Stone Age”?

However, it is not up to the Syrian government to decide whether Lebanon finally joins the war.

Druze and Maronite political figures, who have historically opposed Hezbollah’s military identity in Lebanon, as well as the latest interim prime minister, Najib Mikati, have issued warnings against going to war with Israel.

Mikati acknowledged that he lacks the authority to decide whether Lebanon will go to war, which is a reflection of the contradictions in the Syrian social system, where Hezbollah and, consequently, Iran are responsible for making the most important choice any national leadership could make, namely, whether to declare war.

Hassan Nasrallah, the head of the Hezbollah, has frequently emphasized that the organization’s main responsibility is to uphold the independence of Lebanon.

On the other hand, its primary role in the Syrian civil war, which saved Bashar Assad’s state, has openly shown its dedication to Iran. However, that conflict was primarily fought on Arab earth. A conflict with Israel would be very dissimilar.

If Hezbollah joined the conflict with Israel out of alleged help for Palestinians in Gaza, it would be another dreadful chapter in Lebanon’s history. It might cause Israel to attempt to give Lebanon” up to the Stone Age ,” in the terms of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. Hezbollah’s secretary-general, Nasrallah, has previously responded.

Additionally, it may probably spark the larger regional conflict that US leaders, including President Joe Biden, have fought valiantly to prevent. Additionally, Lebanon would be on the verge of total and inevitable collapse.

Professor of history and harmony studies at the University of Notre Dame, Asher Kaufman

Under a Creative Commons license, this article is republished from The Conversation. read the article in its entirety.

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