New association in Singapore to focus on developing talent, industry standards in sustainable finance

Meanwhile, the SSFA can take the lead in developing industry best practices in areas such as the trading of carbon credits and transition finance.

Having clear and credible standards can mitigate the risk of greenwashing and provide more confidence for capital to be channelled to legitimate green and transition activities, said Mr Chia.

In the area of financing, the association can bring together different players, not just those in the financial space, to “identify more integrated approaches” to address the barriers in financing.

For one, it can combine financing solutions from different asset classes, including risk mitigation tools, to improve the bankability of projects. Mr Chia noted that this applies not only in climate mitigation, but also in financing less bankable projects related to climate adaptation and biodiversity preservation.

In a press release, the SSFA said it will work towards driving the development of a sustainable finance ecosystem and promote best sustainable finance practices in Singapore.

It will also facilitate collaboration between the financial and non-financial sectors for sustainable finance to support the low carbon transition and sustainable economic growth of Singapore and the region, among other objectives.

The SSFA will be co-chaired in its first term by BlackRock’s Singapore country head and regional head of Southeast Asia Deborah Ho and HSBC Singapore’s chief executive officer Wong Kee Joo.

The executive committee also includes 19 other members, comprising MAS’ chief sustainability officer Gillian Tan, Association of Banks in Singapore’s director Ong-Ang Ai Boon, C-suite representatives from financial firms, non-financial sector corporates and academia. 

At the first executive committee meeting on Wednesday, the SSFA said it has formalised its governance structure and laid out its workplan for the year. 

This includes the establishment of workstreams to focus on five key areas, namely carbon markets, transition finance, blended finance, natural capital and biodiversity, and taxonomy.

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China to cut amount banks hold in reserve to boost lending

The latest decision is “another step in the right direction, but monetary policy by itself is not enough to boost economic momentum”, Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, told AFP. “A more proactive fiscal stance focusing on consumption is more important and effective,” said Zhang. “TheContinue Reading

Moody’s reminds China’s pain will be widely shared – Asia Times

Moody’s Investors Service was something of a thorn in global policymakers’ sides in 2023. From Beijing to Washington, the ratings giant fired any number of shots across the bows of the biggest economies.

In mid-November, it lowered America’s credit outlook to “negative” from “stable”, pointing to political polarization in Congress as the US national debt topped US$34 trillion. Three weeks later, Moody’s cut its outlook for Chinese sovereign debt to “negative,” citing a slowing economy and a property sector crisis that Beijing has been slow to address.

Now, Moody’s is reminding Asia of the economic trauma 2024 may have in store as China’s slowdown imperils sovereign creditworthiness across the region.

Moody’s thinks the fallout from China’s property troubles on business and household confidence makes hopes for 5% economic growth in 2024 overly optimistic. It sees mainland gross domestic product (GDP) slowing to 4% this year and next.

For an economy at China’s level of development, such a downshift from the 6% growth averaged from 2014 to 2023 will set back living standards. And it will exacerbate the debt troubles Moody’s flagged last month, both among developers and local governments around the nation. It also may spark legitimacy problems for Xi Jinping’s Communist Party.

China’s slowdown “significantly influences” regional economic trajectories via supply chains, Moody’s says. “As these economies’ respective manufacturing bases are smaller in scale and less developed than China’s, the latter will remain at the center of many of the region’s supply chains and an important source of final demand in the near term.”

True, Moody’s argues that “against this backdrop, we expect companies to continue to diversify supply chains away from China to better manage risks around overarching geostrategic tensions, but also in response to longer-term structural trends.”

These “include population aging and policy risks in China – as illustrated in internet platforms and private education sector regulatory changes – as well as the rapid expansion of the middle class in India,” Moody’s says.

“The diversification trend,” Moody’s goes on, “has accelerated in recent years, boosting investment prospects in economies with large manufacturing bases and improving infrastructure such as India, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam.”

But such pivots take time to execute. Rerouting trade routes is complicated in the best of times and even more so in relatively tight global credit conditions.

In recent weeks, traders have dialed back expectations for US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The People’s Bank of China, meanwhile, has been far less generous about adding liquidity than most economists, analysts and investors expected.

China is keeping a cap on liquidity despite slowing growth and a deep property crisis. Photo: Facebook Screengrab

In addition to the “lackluster situation in China,” says Moody’s analyst Christian De Guzman, tight credit conditions are an added headwind for the region.

“This,” De Guzman told CNBC, “is predicated on global liquidity conditions where we really don’t see the Fed easing until the middle of the year. And Asia-Pacific central banks – we don’t see much decoupling [from] global liquidity conditions there.”

It’s not just that China may be less of a global economic engine going forward. In 2023, Chinese imports contracted by 5.5% amid weak domestic demand. That means China’s 5.2% economic growth rate in 2023 didn’t generate much of a tailwind in Asia.

The bigger problem is how China’s financial risks may stress-test a region still dealing with the fallout from the Covid-19 era. In recent years, governments and companies borrowed aggressively to recover from the pandemic.

In its report, Moody’s warns that elevated global interest rates will worsen debt-servicing burdens. The upshot is that gaining access to international capital will become increasingly more difficult for lower-rated governments.

That will be a problem for China as much as anywhere, if not more. It’s sure to have a cooling effect on President Xi’s economy, notes Moody’s economist Harry Murphy Cruise.

“Real estate investment, dwelling prices and new dwelling sales are set to fall throughout 2024 before returning as a modest driver of growth in 2025,” he predicts.

Yet this could reflect wishful thinking if Xi’s team doesn’t act more forcefully this year to repair the property sector, including by creating a credible mechanism to get bad assets off balance sheets. A similar effort is needed to address the $9 trillion buildup of local government financing vehicle (LGFV) debt.

As these headwinds intensify, the Asia-Pacific region’s sovereign creditworthiness in general is deteriorating. These “tight international funding conditions will curb the region’s output,” Moody’s warns.

For its constellation of 25 sovereigns in the region, Moody’s sees GDP growth falling to an average 3.6% in 2024 from 4.2% last year. That, the rating agency’s analysts say, marks the “lowest rate of expansion in a non-pandemic year in at least two decades – reflecting a slowdown in China and broadly lackluster global economic conditions.”

Slower growth, Moody’s adds, will make it even harder for most governments to reduce Covid-era increases in public debt.

“Together with tight domestic labor markets, this will spur many APAC central banks to maintain tight monetary policy and mitigate currency depreciation risks,” Moody’s says. “International financing will remain difficult for lower-rated sovereigns, particularly frontier markets with large external payment needs.”

On Monday, China’s Premier Li Qiang called for more assertive steps to halt the plunge in mainland stocks, which are now at a five-year low. That’s easier said than done as global investors react to deepening deflationary pressures and a festering property crisis many economists compare to Japan’s banking debacle in the 1990s.

China’s mini-crash is slamming stocks in Hong Kong, too. The city’s discount to mainland peers is now the most extreme in 15 years — roughly 36%.

Even if the PBOC were to begin easing suddenly — something it’s avoided doing so far — the moves have already been priced in the market, says Eva Lee, head of Greater China equities at UBS Global Wealth Management. Only a much “punchier” monetary response might stabilize the situation, she adds.

Green is down and red is up on China’s stock market ticker boards. Photo: Asia Times Files / AFP

Global “passive” funds are becoming far more assertive in hedging China risks. “Their recent selling did amplify the downside pressure,” says analyst Gilbert Wong at Morgan Stanley.

The reason is that “the Chinese government has not yet introduced effective measures to resolve the property turmoil and drive the economic recovery,” says strategist Ken Cheung at Mizuho Bank. This, he adds, has overseas investors continuing to “reduce their risk exposure” amid “bearish expectations” for China’s outlook.

Here, expectations versus reality are becoming a problem for investor sentiment. Generally, Premier Li has “doused” hopes for further support measures, notes Brian Martin, an analyst at ANZ Research.

As Li “trumpeted the nations’ ability to hit its 5% growth target without flooding the economy with massive stimulus,” investors were left fearing Beijing had lost the plot, he said.

Surely, Xi’s inner circle may have valid reasons to be confident about China’s 2024. It’s entirely possible that the economic dashboard Xi’s men are viewing suggests aggregate demand will bounce back sooner than most investors believe.

At the same time, Xi’s party is loath to squander progress made in financial system deleveraging. Beijing’s determination not to reward bad behavior and poor lending decisions is to be applauded. Still, if China’s trajectory is less dire than markets think, Xi’s team is doing a poor job spreading the news.

Even taking a glass-half-full approach to China’s 2023 performance requires an asterisk. “While the economy did beat the official target, it could have scored a higher grade through a more forceful response to the property meltdown and greater commitment to the private sector,” says Tianchen Xu, a senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

Downward pressure on the yuan also suggests the economy is less vibrant than Beijing’s spin would have investors believe. On Monday, Reuters reported that major state-owned banks are propping up the exchange rate. The rationale, Reuters notes, is to disincentivize traders from shorting China’s currency.

A deeper drop in the yuan might also add to default risks among distressed property developers and intensify selling of China’s A shares. So far this year, overseas funds have dumped upwards of $1.6 billion worth of Chinese equities.

“The PBOC has stepped up its efforts to restrain dollar-yuan through the daily fix lately, and this is keeping a lid on” the exchange rate “at the 7.20 level,” says Alvin Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets. “But I think it should give way to the upside soon.”

In recent days, Tan notes, the PBOC and Beijing’s foreign exchange regulator stepped up to “strengthen market expectation guidance and take actions to correct pro-cyclical and one-way market behaviors when necessary.”

Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, says the PBOC’s decision Monday to hold benchmark lending rates steady proves that policymakers “appear to harbor lingering concerns” about the yuan.

“A cut at this stage could trigger additional depreciation pressure, something the PBOC wants to avoid,” Evans-Pritchard says. “Therefore, it may stick to quantitative easing tools for now,” including supplementary lending efforts.

This, too, is part of Xi’s desire not to derail success in building trust in the yuan. A stable exchange rate remains key to making China Asia’s top financial power. As such, Xi appears to care more about a strong currency than rising stocks.

There are also geopolitical threats to consider as US voters choose a new president in November. As US President Joe Biden looks to outflank Republicans loyal to Donald Trump by being tough on China, new sanctions could emerge.

US President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump are expected to go head to head on China issues on the campaign trail. Image: X Screengrab

Tensions in the Red Sea and Russia intensifying its Ukraine war could boost energy prices and thus inflationary pressures in the year ahead.

All this puts sovereign ratings across Asia in harm’s way. A bigger trade war is a particular wildcard. As Washington and Beijing face off in the year ahead and related risks become “more prominent,” Moody’s warns, Asian governments will find it increasingly difficult to maintain financial balance.

Moody’s adds that “competition between China and the US is resulting in regionalization of trade and shifts in economic and financial influence” in the longer run. In the shorter run, though, such disruption is another reason for investors to worry about threats to sovereign ratings in 2024.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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Want to place your CPF savings in a fixed deposit? Here’s what you need to know

ARE THERE OTHER OPTIONS?

An alternative is Treasury bills (T-bills), which are short-term debt securities issued and backed by the Singapore government. 

These government securities became a hit among retail investors over the past two years as yields shot up in line with the aggressive rate hikes pursued by central banks.

T-bill yields hit a more than 30-year high of 4.4 per cent in December 2022, but have since come down to mostly hover around the 3.7 to 3.8 per cent range amid a shift in interest rate directions. For example, the latest six-month T-bill auction on Jan 18 had a cut-off yield of 3.7 per cent.

Still, that is much higher than the fixed deposit offerings by banks. T-bills also have a lower minimum investment sum of S$1,000.

But some investors may prefer fixed deposits over T-bills given the certainty of returns, said Mr Wong.

T-bill yields are determined by an auction process. While interest rate trends help to chart a general trajectory, yields can also be affected by demand and supply dynamics, he added.

This is because in a T-bill auction, up to 40 per cent of the total issuance amount will first be allotted to non-competitive bids. The rest of the issuance amount will be awarded to competitive bids, starting from the lowest to the highest yields submitted.

The highest accepted yield among the successful competitive bids determines the cut-off yield for that auction.

Mr Aizat said T-bills remain a favourable option but with yields likely to trend lower, it may be time for investors to reduce the weightage of these government securities in their portfolios.

Beyond fixed deposits and government securities like T-bills, CPF members can also invest in unit trusts, investment-linked insurance products, funds and shares approved under the CPF investment scheme. 

There are limits on the amount investors can put into stocks and gold – at 35 per cent of one’s investible savings in stocks and 10 per cent in gold.

Given that these are more risky assets, investors should know their own financial goals and risk appetites. Investing in a diversified manner is another good rule of thumb, said Mr Aizat.

Investors should also understand macroeconomic trends and study the impact on individual sectors or companies to make a sound decision, he added.

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What you need to know about placing your CPF savings in a fixed deposit

ARE THERE OTHER OPTIONS?

An alternative is Treasury bills (T-bills), which are short-term debt securities issued and backed by the Singapore government. 

These government securities became a hit among retail investors over the past two years as yields shot up in line with the aggressive rate hikes pursued by central banks.

T-bill yields hit a more than 30-year high of 4.4 per cent in December 2022, but have since come down to mostly hover around the 3.7 to 3.8 per cent range amid a shift in interest rate directions. For example, the latest six-month T-bill auction on Jan 18 had a cut-off yield of 3.7 per cent.

Still, that is much higher than the fixed deposit offerings by banks. T-bills also have a lower minimum investment sum of S$1,000.

But some investors may prefer fixed deposits over T-bills given the certainty of returns, said Mr Wong.

T-bill yields are determined by an auction process. While interest rate trends help to chart a general trajectory, yields can also be affected by demand and supply dynamics, he added.

This is because in a T-bill auction, up to 40 per cent of the total issuance amount will first be allotted to non-competitive bids. The rest of the issuance amount will be awarded to competitive bids, starting from the lowest to the highest yields submitted.

The highest accepted yield among the successful competitive bids determines the cut-off yield for that auction.

Mr Aizat said T-bills remain a favourable option but with yields likely to trend lower, it may be time for investors to reduce the weightage of these government securities in their portfolios.

Beyond fixed deposits and government securities like T-bills, CPF members can also invest in unit trusts, investment-linked insurance products, funds and shares approved under the CPF investment scheme. 

There are limits on the amount investors can put into stocks and gold – at 35 per cent of one’s investible savings in stocks and 10 per cent in gold.

Given that these are more risky assets, investors should know their own financial goals and risk appetites. Investing in a diversified manner is another good rule of thumb, said Mr Aizat.

Investors should also understand macroeconomic trends and study the impact on individual sectors or companies to make a sound decision, he added.

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Ayodhya: India PM Modi to open Hindu temple on razed Babri mosque site

Workers atop the under construction Ram Temple in Ayodhya, Uttar Pradesh, India, on Friday, Dec. 29, 2023.Getty Images

India’s PM Narendra Modi is due to inaugurate a grand temple to popular Hindu god Ram in the city of Ayodhya.

It replaces a 16th-Century mosque, razed by Hindu mobs in 1992. The demolition had sparked nationwide riots in which nearly 2,000 people died.

The temple fulfils a decades-long Hindu nationalist pledge to build a shrine to Lord Ram in the flashpoint city.

But some Hindu seers and most of the opposition are staying away, saying Mr Modi is using it for political gains.

Many Hindus believe that Ayodhya is the birthplace of Ram and the Babri mosque was built by Muslim invaders on the ruins of a Ram temple at the exact spot where the Hindu god was born.

The movement to build a temple at the same site was a major factor that propelled the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) into political prominence in the 1990s.

Constructed at a cost of $217m (£170m), the new three-storey structure – made with pink sandstone and anchored by black granite – stretches across 7.2 acres in a 70-acre complex.

Mr Modi will open only the ground floor of the temple – the remaining portions are expected to be completed by the end of the year.

A 51-inch (4.25-ft) statue of the deity, especially commissioned for the temple, was unveiled last week. The idol has been placed on a marble pedestal in the sanctum sanctorum.

Monday’s ceremony is called Pran Pratishtha, which loosely translates from Sanskrit into “establishment of life force”. Hindus believe that chanting of mantras and a set of rituals performed around a fire will infuse sacred life in an idol or a photograph of a deity.

Mr Modi has called the temple a major achievement and said that “the entire country is eagerly waiting for 22 January”.

“Many generations had looked forward to this moment,” he said in a message earlier this month, adding that he would be “representing all of India’s 140 million people” at the consecration ceremony.

But a sour note has been struck with some top religious seers saying that as the temple is not yet complete, it is against Hinduism to perform these rituals there, and many opposition leaders deciding to stay away.

General elections are due in India in the next few months and Mr Modi’s political rivals say the governing BJP will be seeking votes in the temple’s name in a country where 80% of the population is Hindu.

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Some of the opposition-ruled states have also announced their own plans for the day – West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee said she would pray at the iconic temple to goddess Kali in Kolkata and then lead an all-faith rally. The eastern state of Odisha (Orissa) has unveiled huge plans to bring pilgrims to the Jagannath temple in Puri, one of the holiest sites for Hindus.

But in Ayodhya, all roads lead to the new temple. Thousands of policemen have been deployed to ensure security and manage traffic. Saffron-coloured flags of the BJP and those with images of Hindu gods dot major roads, many of which have been decorated with bright yellow and orange marigold flowers.

Authorities say they expect more than 150,000 visitors per day once the temple is fully ready.

To accommodate this expected rush, the city has been the site of frenzied construction work for months. In recent weeks, a brand new airport and a railway station have been opened, several new hotels have been built and the existing ones have been spruced up.

The government has allotted $3.85bn (£3.01bn) for the transformation of Ayodhya, the tranquil pilgrim town on the banks of Saryu river, a tributary of the Ganges.

Officials say they are building a “world-class city where people come as pilgrims and tourists”, but many local people have told the BBC that their homes, shops and “structures of religious nature” have been either completely or partially demolished to expand roads and set up other facilities.

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Chinese gang nailed in huge WalMart gift cards scam – Asia Times

by Craig Silverman and Peter Elkind

This article was originallly published by ProPublica, a Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative newsroom. It is republished with permission.

Christy Browne was in a panic. The man on the phone said he was from the FBI. He warned her that drug traffickers had obtained her Social Security number and were using it to launder money. He said the FBI needed money to catch them.

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“They told me not to go to local law enforcement,” Browne testified in court recently about the February 2020 call. The police were watching her and considered her a suspect, the man said.

At his direction, Browne, a retired elementary school teacher who lives in upstate New York, bought four $500 Walmart gift cards at her local Walmart. It was 3:15 pm. She took photos of the serial numbers and PINs on the back and texted them to the man on the phone. With that information, the fraudster had access to $2,000.

That was only the first step. The gift card numbers were then sold to Qinbin Chen, a Chinese national living in Virginia. At 5:47 pm, Chen passed the numbers to a co-conspirator waiting near a Walmart in Sterling, Virginia.

Just eight minutes later, at 5:55, the accomplice did something that an ordinary consumer would rarely do, but which is routine for fraudsters: use one gift card to buy another. With the numbers from Browne’s Walmart cards, he purchased Apple, Google Play and other gift cards at the store’s self-checkout kiosk. He sent the serial numbers and PINs for those cards to Chen, who then sold them to a buyer in China. Transferring the money to other companies’ gift cards for use in another country made it impossible for Walmart to figure out where the funds ended up. Browne had no way to recover her $2,000.

She was far from the only victim. Chen oversaw the laundering of some $7 million in fraudulently obtained gift cards, according to the Department of Justice. It was a complex international operation involving hundreds of victims, thousands of gift cards and multiple co-conspirators in the US and China.

Federal prosecutors would give it a simple name: “The Walmart scheme.”

America’s largest retailer has long been a facilitator of fraud on a mass scale, a ProPublica investigation has found. For roughly a decade, Walmart has resisted tougher enforcement while breaking promises to regulators and skimping on employee training, according to more than 50 interviews, internal documents supplied by former industry executives, court filings and other public records.

Scammers dupe a victim, as they did with Browne, and then they exploit Walmart’s lax systems to get paid quickly and easily. That’s been true whether the fraudsters use Walmart gift cards or instruct customers to send funds by electronic money transfer. The company, in the latter instance, is supposed to be on the lookout for fraud and asking questions: Do you know the person you’re sending money to? Is the money transfer related to a telemarketing offer?

Too often, Walmart has failed. More than $1 billion in fraud losses were routed through the company’s financial systems between 2013 and 2022, according to filings by the Federal Trade Commission and court cases analyzed by ProPublica. That has helped fuel a boom in financial chicanery. Americans, many of them elderly, were swindled out of $27 billion between 2013 and 2022, according to the FTC.

Walmart has a financial incentive to avoid cracking down. It makes money each time a Walmart gift card is used and earns a fee when another brand of card is bought. And it receives one commission when a person sends a money transfer and a second when the recipient picks it up. The company’s financial services business generates hundreds of millions in annual profits. (Its filings do not provide specific figures for gift cards and money transfers.)

“They were concerned about the bucks. That’s all,” Nick Alicea, a former fraud team leader for the US Postal Inspection Service who investigated Walmart for years, told ProPublica.

Walmart’s deficiencies have repeatedly attracted government scrutiny. In 2017, the attorneys general of New York and Pennsylvania investigated Walmart over concerns that it was “reaping the benefits” of gift card fraud. The investigation concluded a year later with Walmart promising to restrict or eliminate the use of its gift cards to purchase other gift cards, a favored tactic of fraudsters such as Chen. Instead, the company let the practice continue until 2022 — even after it knew that millions of dollars were being laundered through its stores.

The FTC sued Walmart in 2022, alleging it “turned a blind eye” as criminals took advantage of its money transfer service. Walmart, the FTC claimed, pocketed millions in fees while “letting fraudsters fleece its customers.” Summarizing the FTC’s evidence, a federal judge in the case wrote that “Walmart knew that its services were used by fraudsters” and that the company was repeatedly warned about certain stores where “twenty-five, fifty, or even seventy-five percent of money transfer activity was fraudulent.” Separately, a federal grand jury in Pennsylvania is hearing evidence of possible criminal conduct in Walmart’s money transfer business, according to corporate filings that did not detail the allegations.

None of this appears to have slowed Walmart’s ambitions to grab an ever-bigger portion of the financial services market. After years of offering gift cards and prepaid cards, money transfers and check cashing, in 2022 Walmart acquired an online banking platform called One, broadening its financial offerings even further.

But as the company seeks to grow, there is reason for caution. Not only is Walmart continuing practices that ease the way for fraudsters, its previous failings go deeper than the government has alleged, ProPublica found. Its long record of spotty training and compliance, and its refusal to take responsibility for the fraud perpetrated using its systems, cast doubt on its ability to run a sprawling financial business, experts and current and former Walmart employees said.

Walmart strenuously defends its anti-fraud efforts. In a statement, the company said its push into financial services has saved customers without traditional bank accounts $6 billion in fees. The company asserted that it has blocked more than $700 million in suspicious money transfers and refunded $4 million to victims of gift card fraud. “Walmart offers these financial services while working hard to keep our customers safe from third-party fraudsters,” it said. “We have a robust anti-fraud program and other controls to help stop scammers and other criminals who may use the financial services we offer to harm our customers.”

The company’s legal filings in the FTC case struck a different tone. Walmart is seeking to dismiss the suit, partly on the grounds that it has “no responsibility to protect against the criminal conduct of third parties.” Though fraud is “deeply unfortunate,” Walmart argues, such schemes are “reasonably avoidable by consumers.” The company also asserts that the FTC is exceeding its authority in bringing the action. (The judge upheld the FTC’s authority and allowed the suit to continue. He dismissed a second count, which accused Walmart of violatting a rule relating to telemarketing fraud, but permitted the FTC to re-file the claim and address his objections.)

Walmart’s weaknesses provided an opportunity for Chen, whose operation is the largest gift card laundering scheme ever prosecuted by US law enforcement, based on a ProPublica analysis of court records. Including Chen, at least 28 state and federal defendants — almost all from China — have been convicted of using gift cards obtained from fraud victims to transfer tens of millions of dollars through Walmart. It’s likely that many more have avoided detection. One prosecutor called gift card schemes a “worldwide effort to empty the United States of its retirement funds.”

One prosecutor called gift card schemes a “worldwide effort to empty the United States of its retirement funds.”

Chen spent five years laundering Walmart gift cards before he was arrested in 2021, according to evidence that would emerge in court. Earlier that year, he complained to an associate that more and more people were competing to resell cards in China, eating into his profits.

So many scammers were flocking to Walmart that he and his team regularly encountered them at self-checkout counters. “All of a sudden, a lot more people started to do it in the past couple of years,” Chen wrote in an online message. “We ran into quite a few at the store, and we even started chatting.”

Store #2038, in the Washington, D.C., suburb of Sterling, Virginia, has much in common with the 4,621 other Walmarts across America. A giant US flag stands out front. Walmart’s yellow “spark” logo marks the hangar-like building. And on a sunny midweek afternoon in late November, the massive parking lot is nearly full, but for a pair of close-in spots reserved for “our law enforcement partners.”

Inside, Walmart shoppers are buffeted by financial promotions. Hundreds of gift cards hang on unattended kiosks near the customer-service counter, where people queue to return broken toasters or exchange pajamas. At the money services desk, where three signs tout Walmart’s recently acquired banking app, you can cash a check, pay a bill, or send and receive money to or from just about anyplace in the world.

It doesn’t look like a hub for fraud. But this was one of the stores frequented by Chen’s crew. Born in Fujian province in southeastern China, Chen dropped out of high school and began working in restaurants at the age of 15. In 2014, when he was 21, he came to the US with his father. In America, he often went by the name Ben Chen and worked in Chinese and sushi restaurants until he found a new way to make money in 2016: gift cards.

In China, gift card trading is a lucrative business. Gamers crave American Google Play, Apple and Steam gift cards because they can use them to purchase credits for games without needing a US credit card. Gift card trading can create “small gold mines” that generate “long-term, stable profits,” according to a post on a Chinese message board.

The lightning-fast model Chen used to launder the money extracted from Browne was typical of such scams. Chen made his profit by purchasing Walmart gift card numbers at a discount from contacts in China. A $100 Walmart gift card obtained from a victim might cost him only $70. He could then use that Walmart card to buy a $100 Apple card, then resell the Apple card at close to its face value, pocketing the difference.

For years, the scam paid off. At the time of his arrest, Chen had $304,033.99 in one bank account and $278,602.69 in another, according to one court filing.

Chen seemed to enjoy taking chances. “Let me say it plainly,” he messaged one associate. “Buying this stuff has the risk of being arrested.” Chen lied to his then-girlfriend to convince her to let him move money through her US bank account, she later testified. He instructed one of his runners to give police a fake phone number, and furnished another with receipts to deceive officers who might request proof of a gift card purchase, according to court exhibits.

And he could be threatening. Once, a former runner used Chen’s name to set up a Sam’s Club membership. Chen was incensed, court records show. He told the man over WeChat to meet him at a Chinese restaurant in Virginia. Noting that he knew the man’s license plate number, he said, “You will die very painfully.”

Starting in 1999, Walmart made four unsuccessful bids to enter the banking business. Such services would give customers yet another reason to visit Walmart stores, and owning its own bank would save Walmart millions in transaction fees. But Walmart faced resistance from regulators, protests from lawmakers and an outcry from community banks fearful that Walmart would wipe them out.

The company responded to these setbacks by launching a variety of financial offerings that didn’t require a bank charter, including check cashing, electronic bill payments, money orders, and branded debit and credit cards. In each case, Walmart undercut typical industry fees, saving its customers money.

Its largest financial venture, launched in 2002, was in money transfers. The company partnered with MoneyGram, which, like Western Union, has long been in the business of transferring funds. Walmart employees would serve customers, then transmit the money through MoneyGram’s electronic network.

The money transfer industry was, and is, massive, running into the hundreds of billions of dollars globally. It was also awash in swindles. Scammers had long loved money transfers for the same reason customers did: They made it easy to move cash rapidly across the world. Plus, they were hard to trace. The problems were so pervasive that a federal fraud investigation would force MoneyGram to terminate its partnerships with hundreds of non-Walmart retail outlets in the US and Canada in 2009.

In the aftermath of this crackdown, federal officials warned Walmart that fraudsters were using its stores to send and receive money transfers. Walmart assured the officials that it already had a “comprehensive” anti-fraud program and would bolster its efforts by training employees to identify suspicious transactions and providing warning signs and brochures in its stores. But those claims, according to the FTC, “turned out to be false.”

Fraud soared. Walmart outlets at one point accounted for the top 20 locations for fraud nationally among chains that partnered with MoneyGram, according to internal documents. In a single week in March 2017, consumers claiming they’d been duped into a money transfer filed 610 complaints about Walmart, according to documents obtained by ProPublica. CVS ranked second, with 47. Site inspections routinely found that Walmart staff lacked anti-fraud training and that employees failed to ask screening questions.

At the time, MoneyGram was bound by agreements with the FTC and Department of Justice that required it to police any lapses it detected among its partners. An independent monitor appointed as part of one of those agreements wrote that “Walmart has weaknesses in its compliance program.”

But Walmart resisted MoneyGram’s attempts to fight fraud. “Walmart pushed back more than any [outlet] I’ve ever seen,” said Alicea, the former fraud team leader for the postal inspector’s office in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, who investigated MoneyGram and Walmart.

MoneyGram’s agreements with the government also required that it quickly suspend or terminate transfers at any partner that exceeded fraud-complaint limits. Yet until May 2017, 15 years into their partnership, MoneyGram hadn’t suspended a single Walmart store, according to the FTC. MoneyGram’s inaction helped prompt additional penalties from the FTC and the Justice Department.

Walmart officials insisted that shutting down transfers wasn’t “customer-friendly,” Alicea said. The company said it could address the problem with training. Walmart also routinely blamed MoneyGram, even though Walmart shared responsibility for compliance and its employees processed the transfers, Alicea said. “They have the face-to-face contact with the customer. MoneyGram doesn’t,” he said. “Someone’s going in there with a walker and $5,000 and sending the money to Nigeria? Come on.”

MoneyGram was afraid to alienate Walmart, three former MoneyGram officials said. “You don’t shut down one store and make Walmart angry,” said Mark Shaffer, who worked at Walmart for 27 years before joining MoneyGram to help manage its relationship with the retailer. “They [might] say, ‘Fine, you’re out of all 3,000!’” (MoneyGram was released from its FTC and Justice Department compliance agreements in 2021. A spokesperson for the company said it has “invested more than $800 million to enhance its compliance program and doubled the size of its compliance team,” and now has “record-low consumer fraud complaints.”)

Even as Walmart dragged its heels on combating fraud in its partnership with MoneyGram, the company took a major step that effectively loosened security. Walmart launched a second money-transfer service, Walmart2Walmart, a discount operation that allowed people to send money between Walmart stores. If fraudsters seeking to transfer money through MoneyGram at a Walmart store were stymied by security, they could simply try again using Walmart2Walmart, or vice versa.

Scammers immediately abused the popular service, causing an explosion in money transfers by victims of fraud, according to former executives and testimony from law enforcement. “There were a whole bunch of transactions that should have been looked into that weren’t,” former Walmart business development director Axel Wulff, who helped create Walmart2Walmart, said in an interview. “We simply didn’t have the resources to follow up on everything.”

Ria, the company that provides the electronic backbone of Walmart2Walmart, acknowledged the service’s struggles. “Unfortunately,” Ria noted in a statement, Walmart2Walmart was “exploited by fraudsters, who are always looking for new alternatives to facilitate their fraud schemes.” In response, Ria restricted or suspended transactions at high-fraud Walmart stores and worked with Walmart to establish systemwide controls. Ria “prevented significantly more fraud attempts than those that were completed,” it said.

In its own statement to ProPublica, Walmart asserted that it has stopped “hundreds of thousands of suspicious money transfer transactions” and that “fewer than 2 out of every 10,000 money transfers at Walmart were reported as even possibly fraudulent in 2021.”

Walmart was more combative in its pleadings in the FTC case, denying any obligation to act on “alleged” red flags. “No law prohibits consumers from sending multiple money transfers or from using out-of-state IDs, and Walmart has no grounds to scrutinize customers who do so,” it wrote. The company rejected the idea that it should “interrogate” customers sending money to “certain countries” based on “stereotypes that an entire ‘countr[y]’ presents a ‘high-risk’ of ‘fraud.’”

It was unfair, Walmart said, to punish the company for “not second-guessing customers and blocking transfers they have freely chosen to undertake.” But standard industry agreements and federal regulations require precisely that.

As the FTC and DOJ began cracking down on money transfers and MoneyGram responded in 2017 by suspending transfers at some Walmarts, scammers started favoring another tactic: telling victims to buy gift cards.

Complaints about gift card purchases at Walmart flooded the offices of state attorneys general. As part of the joint investigation launched in 2017 with New York’s attorney general, Pennsylvania officials pressed Walmart to compensate “victims who were never questioned or warned of the potential for a scam by Walmart clerks or managers.” The attorneys general also looked at Target and Best Buy.

Walmart representatives met with lawyers from the two states. According to meeting notes obtained through a records request, Walmart again invoked its customer-service argument: “Walmart not sure they want employees to refuse transactions … against the ethos of making customers happy,” the notes said.

On Nov. 20, 2018, New York and Pennsylvania announced that Walmart, Target and Best Buy agreed to make “significant” changes to their gift card policies. They included lowering the amount of money that could be loaded onto a card to $500, limiting the number and total value of gift cards that could be purchased at one time, and improving employee training.

The retailers also said they would restrict or eliminate the use of a gift card to purchase other gift cards. That should have been the death knell for the laundering method used by Chen and others. Best Buy and Target soon implemented a ban on gift-card-for-gift-card purchases.

Walmart said it would do the same, but then let the laundering continue for nearly four more years.

The company decided against imposing a ban, according to Fred Helm, who worked for Walmart’s global investigations unit. “That was a big conversation,” Helm told ProPublica. “The Walmart business side makes that call, not the legal side. I think it was probably just a case of ‘business wins the day.’”

Walmart’s statement to ProPublica did not address questions about its agreement with New York and Pennsylvania. The company pointed to an FTC report that showed fraud losses were considerably higher for Target cards than Walmart cards in the first nine months of 2021. (The FTC’s method didn’t take into account gift-card-for-gift-card purchases, which Target had banned, but which were still allowed at Walmart. The FTC has not run a similar calculation for other years.)

Chen had already made Walmart his focus before the 2018 agreement. The company’s decision not to bar card-for-card purchasing enabled him to expand his business. He recruited runners by placing ads on WeChat, a Chinese social network, and on a Chinese-language site focused on the D.C. area, according to trial evidence.

In 2019, Chen connected with Jin Hong, a Virginia native, and offered him a 3% commission on the dollar amount of Walmart gift cards he laundered. He could earn $300 a day by moving $10,000 in cards.

“Easy to do [USD] 2,000 in a single store,” Chen said, according to WeChat messages translated by the FBI. He added: “Working hours are from 11 to 6. [You] may leave early if there is no order.”

“I don’t mind giving it a shot!” Hong said.

Chen sent him a list of Walmarts and Sam’s Clubs. “These are the ones where are relatively easy to make the purchase,” Chen said. Hong started the next day and worked for Chen for six months. Hong would later plead guilty to one count of conspiracy to commit wire fraud and agreed to cooperate with the government.

“You would sit in a Walmart parking lot from 11:00 to 6:00, five days a week, redeeming gift cards, correct?” a prosecutor asked.

“Correct,” Hong said. It was Hong who waited in the Walmart parking lot before converting the gift cards that Christy Browne was tricked into buying.

Reached by phone, he declined to comment.

Chen had two rules for his runners: Move fast and use the self-checkout kiosk. Speed ensured a victim couldn’t reclaim their funds before a runner could launder the Walmart gift card. Self-checkouts were key because they operate with little oversight.

But even if Walmart employees had noticed Chen or one of his minions, they weren’t properly trained to identify and stop financial misbehavior. With Walmart’s high turnover, many workers lacked experience, and they were under pressure to make quick sales to keep checkout lines short. A former manager who spent a decade working at Walmart said it was “very rare” for associates to ask questions to determine whether customers might be involved in, or a victim of, fraud. Federal regulations require such questions for money transfers but not gift cards.

Today, Walmart cashiers handling gift cards, prepaid cards and money transfers are supposed to complete anti-money-laundering and anti-fraud training through computer-based courses. They consist of videos and multiple-choice quizzes. Associates must score 100% before being allowed to work the register.

A current Walmart employee with six years’ experience in the MoneyCenter, a financial services section offered in some Walmart stores, said that the training videos include obsolete technology and don’t cover all of Walmart’s financial products. “I think the training could be a heck of a lot better than it is. They’re not current to what we’re doing.”

Walmart said that associates “are part of a large team dedicated to fighting fraud. Walmart trains hundreds of thousands of associates annually.” It said employees handling money transfers receive additional training, including “job aids, manuals and infographics” and “daily knowledge checks at the register.”

ProPublica readily found copies of Walmart’s current “advanced” anti-money-laundering and anti-fraud quiz online, complete with answers. They were posted by Walmart associates who said they shared them to help colleagues pass the quiz.

ProPublica showed a copy to Christian Hunt, a former head of compliance at UBS Asset Management and the author of “Humanizing Rules: Bringing Behavioural Science to Ethics and Compliance.” Hunt said Walmart’s test is riddled with “lazy, pointless” questions that don’t help employees identify or prevent fraud. “It allows you to say you have tested them,” he said. “It does not allow you to say they genuinely understand this.”

The test’s first question is, “Which of the following is the process of collecting basic information about a customer regarding their identity?” The answer is “Know Your Customer.” Hunt said Walmart cashiers don’t need to know the phrase; they need to understand what information to collect and why.

Walmart cashiers and managers said they are responsible for enforcing a limit of four $500 gift cards per purchase (as laid out in the agreement with New York and Pennsylvania). But, according to police reports and a current Walmart associate, employees often ignore the limit.

Walmart seems to have had more success in staving off fraud when it relies on technology. The company employs analytics and artificial intelligence, and Helm’s team developed a system called Redemption that can automatically freeze the balance of a gift card if it exhibits activity consistent with fraud.

In 2022, Walmart turned over to the Secret Service roughly $4 million that it had frozen using the Redemption system. The funds, which were seized from gift cards loaded in July 2017, are being refunded to people who purchased the original gift cards.

“The secret sauce is miles per hour — the speed that the money is moving between the reload [of a gift card] and redemption,” Helm said. The system could, for example, detect if someone had bought gift cards in Pennsylvania and the same cards were being redeemed in Texas soon after. “We may have the disease of being so large, and things fall through the cracks, but this was one hell of an effort,” Helm said.

Still, Redemption captures only a small fraction of the fraud. And Walmart has not returned any money that was frozen on cards since 2017. Walmart declined to comment on the lag or to reveal how much money it has seized in total.

The flimflams continue, even in Walmart’s home state of Arkansas. In March 2022, a 39-year-old man with autism and what his mother described as “a mental impairment” began an online romance with someone he believed was WWE wrestling star Bianca Belair. Following the impersonator’s instructions, he used a credit card he’d obtained at the direction of the scammer to purchase $7,500 in Apple gift cards at a Walmart in Hot Springs, Arkansas. His mother filed a complaint with the Arkansas attorney general, asking how Walmart could permit such a suspicious transaction without asking questions. As she put it, “I’m a pissed off angry mom.”

A few months later, an 82-year-old woman ensnared in a fraud scheme purchased $14,000 worth of Walmart gift cards at two stores in Rogers, Arkansas. According to her son, employees didn’t ask anti-fraud questions and failed to enforce the gift card limits. She never got her money back. The woman had worked for many years in a warehouse — at Walmart.

Gift card fraud is increasingly taking a different form: balance theft. A scammer grabs Walmart gift cards and takes them to a private spot, such as a bathroom stall. The criminal peels off the protective tape covering the PIN and photographs it and the card’s serial number. They reapply security tape and put the cards back on display, hoping a customer will pick one up.

As soon as a customer activates a card and loads money onto it, the crook (who uses the PIN and serial number to monitor the card’s balance on Walmart’s website) spends the money. When people go to use the card, they discover it has a balance of zero.

Walmart could thwart balance theft by wrapping its gift cards in secure packaging, as other retailers do, and by keeping them in a secure location. Walmart already puts items such as video games, nicotine gum and replacement bulbs for car headlights behind lock and key.

Walmart gift cards are “just sitting on the shelf like an open deck of cards,” noted Craig Heidemann, an attorney who filed a class-action against Walmart in 2018 over its alleged failure to protect gift card buyers. (Heidemann’s suit was dismissed in 2022 and he wouldn’t comment on whether he’d reached a settlement.)

The difference between Walmart and other brands was evident in November at the Virginia store formerly targeted by Chen. Among dozens of varieties of gift cards, only the Walmart-branded ones lacked protective packaging.

In September, Qinbin Chen went on trial. Six of his confederates had already pleaded guilty to criminal charges. Now the diminutive Chen sat at the defense table, with a Mandarin translator, to answer to eight counts of money laundering, conspiracy, access device fraud and aggravated identity theft.

The pretrial period had been contentious. Chen was chronically dissatisfied with his lawyers, most of whom were court-appointed. As the trial began, he was on his sixth attorney.

The trial lasted three days. Prosecutors used testimony from co-conspirators and messages obtained from Chen’s phone to portray him as a driven criminal. The government called him the “quarterback for a criminal organization that obtained, used, transferred, and laundered” Walmart gift cards with millions of dollars of value. Chen’s lawyer countered that his client ran a legitimate gift card business and that the government failed to show Chen knew the Walmart cards came from fraud victims.

On September 14, after less than three hours of deliberation, the jury convicted Chen on all eight charges. He faces between two and 20 years in prison and is expected to be sentenced in February.

In late November, Chen sent a letter to the trial judge, outlining multiple grievances. Printing by hand on yellow lined paper, Chen complained that he was “treated in an Incorrect and careless way. It’s led me lose my trial. … I really need my retrial with different lawyer.” (By December 13, a seventh attorney was representing him. That lawyer did not respond to requests for comment.)

For her part, Browne, the retired teacher who lost $2,000, is still grappling with what happened to her. Even before being defrauded, she didn’t use credit cards or digital payments due to security and privacy concerns. Now she’s scared to answer her phone.

She told ProPublica: “There isn’t anything I trust any more.”

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Chinese yuan gaining greater currency in the Gulf – Asia Times

China’s pursuit of internationalizing the yuan, currency swaps, e-currency, cross-border deals and digitalized currency have recently made international news. These efforts are mainly on the rise with Gulf states.

On November 28, 2023, the People’s Bank of China and the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates renewed their currency swap agreement worth US$4.89 billion for five years. Both banks also signed a memorandum of understanding to enhance collaboration in digital currency development.

Meanwhile, the Dubai Financial Market, in collaboration with Nasdaq Dubai and the Shanghai Stock Exchange, signed a memorandum of understanding covering various areas of digital financial cooperation

A China-UAE currency swap started in 2012, and in March 2023, the two sides made the first-ever purchase of liquified natural gas in yuan.

On November 20, 2023, the People’s Bank of China and the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority signed a currency swap of $6.98 billion for three years. 

In a separate development, Saudi companies were listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Saudi Arabia is in active talks with Beijing to price some of its oil sales in Chinese yuan, a move that would dent the US dollar’s dominance in the global petroleum market and mark another shift by the world’s top crude exporter towards Asia.

China also has a currency swap agreement with Qatar. In addition to currency swaps, China has signed cross-border trade settlement arrangements with all six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council and has established yuan clearing centers in different cities. These measures could make the yuan a trade invoicing currency, reduce cumbersome processes and costs and create a pool of liquidity in the yuan.

The growing financial cooperation between China and Gulf Cooperation Council states is not unexpected. It is the result of steady, systematic growth over a decade and confirms deepening bilateral relations. 

Both sides have placed a significant premium on the digitalization of their finances. They are taking measures to create greater space and avoid US sanctions. The Gulf region, especially the United Arab Emirates, has positioned itself as a global financial hub and is drawing investments towards it. Saudi Arabia is also striving to catch up quickly.

From the Chinese side, the Belt and Road Initiative and its energy needs pushed it towards the Gulf Cooperation Council. The Belt and Road Initiative’s Action Plan stresses financial connectivity, the internationalization of the yuan, cross-border payment agreements, financial integration and the incorporation of the yuan in the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights basket of currencies. China achieved this milestone in 2016.

In line with these goals, China launched the Yuan Cross-Border Interbank Payment System in 2015, providing a stable platform service for cross-border yuan settlement. By early 2023, this payment system boasts 1,366 participants from 109 countries and regions.

Additionally, the People’s Bank of China has entered into currency swap agreements with the central banks or monetary authorities of 29 countries.

China initiated efforts to internationalize the yuan in 2004 and started financial cooperation with the Gulf Cooperation Council a decade later. In 2013, during his meeting with the King of Bahrain, Sheikh Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa, Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized the need for closer cooperation with Gulf countries. 

Xi reiterated this during his speech at the Arab League headquarters in 2016. Acting upon Xi’s guidelines, Chinese banks and financial institutions expanded their presence, cross-border financial transactions and activities in the Gulf region.

As a result, Chinese banks have more than doubled their balance sheets in the Dubai International Financial Centre since mid-2014. By 2018, their total assets accounted for nearly a quarter of the financial center’s assets. And Chinese financial entities have upgraded their licenses from subsidiary to branch status in the Dubai International Finance Center.

Though these deals are moderate in volume, they demonstrate China’s growing ties with the region. Beijing has institutional mechanisms with the Gulf Cooperation Council and the Arab League. 

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are set to join the China-and-Russia-led BRICS in early 2024. They are also dialogue partners of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, with the possibility of achieving full member status in the future.

These financial agreements between China and the Gulf Cooperation Council hold great potential. They could reduce the duration and cost of transactions, mitigate risks, enhance resilience against financial crises, expand market access, promote bilateral trade and facilitate regional integration. They may serve as catalysts, encouraging other Middle Eastern countries to engage in similar deals with China.

Saudi Arabia — as one of the primary oil exporters to China — may consider adopting the yuan for oil trade in the long term, reducing dependence on the dollar. These deals will strengthen bilateral relations and indicate a shift from the petrodollar to the “petroyuan”, albeit over an extended timeframe.

Dr Ghulam Ali is Deputy Director at The Hong Kong Research Center for Asian Studies.

This article was originally published by East Asia Forum and is republished under a Creative Commons license.

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China stock rout shows investors want way more reform – Asia Times

The startling divergence between China’s 5.2% growth and cratering stock market is putting Asia’s biggest economy in global headlines for all the wrong reasons.

Given the chaos of 2023 — a massive property crisis, record youth unemployment, trade headwinds from Washington and deflationary pressures — China’s ability to top 5% growth year on year is impressive indeed. But the stock market continues to stumble, a rout that shows few signs of slowing.

So how bad could things get? In the first two weeks of 2024, global funds sold more than US$1.1 billion of mainland stocks. China’s CSI 300 index this week fell to its lowest levels since 2019, losing more than 25% over the last year. That’s the mirror image of the 24% rally in the S&P 500 over the same period.

China’s stock troubles have many causes. The most recent: disappointment that the People’s Bank of China didn’t loosen monetary rates this week. It left rates unchanged on its seven-day reverse repo and medium-term lending facility. Markets had been expecting cuts.

“The PBOC’s decision to hold rates is negative for market sentiment and economic growth, and suggests policymakers are not trying very hard to present a coordinated, strongly pro-growth message at the start of the year,” says Wei He, analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics.

Recent data show that China entered 2024 with a series of headaches undermining domestic demand and confidence. Property-related spending is sliding and home prices are the weakest since 2015.

Consumer prices have dropped for three consecutive months, suggesting the worst deflationary pressures since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis. 

Then there are the data trends that fuel “Japanification” chatter. That includes news that the historic decline in China’s population continues, with births falling to a record low in 2023, adding to Beijing’s longer-term demographic challenges.

It’s complicated, of course. As 2024 opens, Xi Jinping’s China finds itself at a transitional crossroads. President Xi’s team has been working to reduce China’s vulnerability to boom/bust cycles.

This means clamping down on runaway borrowing, reducing the role of state-owned enterprises, championing private-sector development and increasing innovation.

Deleveraging is a necessary ingredient to increasing the quality and productiveness of China’s gross domestic product (GDP). It means going easy on the kinds of stimulus Beijing would normally throw at a lethargic economy.

This can be seen in the PBOC’s reluctance to hit the monetary gas. 

People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng is reluctant to hit the monetary gas. Image: Twitter Screengrab

“We suspect the main reason the PBOC failed to deliver this time is a desire to avoid triggering renewed depreciation pressure on the renminbi,” economists at Capital Economics said in a note.

Along with hastened capital outflows, a weaker exchange rate would increase default risks among property developers already struggling to make offshore bond payments. It also might draw ire in Washington as the November presidential election heats up.

ANZ Bank analysts add that the “PBOC chose to hold despite strong deflation pressure. This likely reflects its concerns about bank profitability.” The rationale being that the lower rates go, the harder state-owned banking giants might find it to generate healthy returns.

Yet indications that China faces deflation buttress the case for additional monetary easing, says Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joseph Capurso. “We judge the market has more or less priced in an imminent PBOC rate cut” in the near future, he notes.

Weak consumer demand is hardly helping to change the narrative among global investors. When it comes to spending, “sustainability is in doubt amid slowing economic recovery,” says Lillian Lou, analyst at Morgan Stanley.

Adding to the uncertainty at PBOC headquarters, Governor Pan Gongsheng has limited visibility into what the globe’s other top central banks are planning this year.

Bets that the US Federal Reserve would be cutting rates assertively are being reconsidered as the world’s biggest economy expands apace.

Top officials like Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller are signaling that rates will be lowered “methodically and carefully” at best. 

Such comments suggest “there’s no reason to move as quickly as they have in the past, cuts should be methodical and careful,” says strategist Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex.

At Bank of Japan headquarters, officials are stepping away from plans to exit quantitative easing. Along with likely entering 2024 in recession, BOJ officials worry China’s slowdown will hit Japanese exports hard.

All this “means that the market no longer expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates at its late January board meeting,” says economist Richard Katz, who publishes the Japan Economy Watch newsletter.

“That, in turn, means the US-Japan interest rate gap will remain higher for longer than was previously expected, or grow even larger as it has over the past weeks,” Katz says. “If so, that means a weaker yen than previously expected.”

This dynamic could complicate the PBOC’s options for major steps to add liquidity. Gavekal’s He says that “policymakers are still likely to reduce policy rates later in the first quarter, meaning bond yields will probably remain at their current low levels.”

PBOC officials, He adds, “are unlikely to change the benchmark loan-prime rates later this month.”

“Commercial bank net interest margins remain at an all-time low, and it is hard to imagine that policymakers would exacerbate that squeeze by lowering bank lending rates but not their funding rates. Still, bond-market participants appear optimistic about an eventual rate cut,” He adds.

Thanks to looser liquidity conditions, lower deposit rates and rate-cut expectations, the 10-year China government bond yield has declined to about 2.5% from nearly 2.7% in early December.

Lower yields are narrowing the gap between the 10-year Chinese government bond yields and seven-day reverse repo rate, a measure of growth expectations.

“It is now nearly back to the average in 2022, when Covid lockdowns hammered the economy,” He notes. “The already low-level means room for further narrowing is probably limited, barring a substantial shock to growth.”

Li Qiang has stood by the line that massive stimulus is not on the way. Image: Screengrab / NDTV

Speaking in Davos this week, Chinese Premier Li Qiang gave few hints that Xi’s inner circle expects major shocks. There, Li stuck to the line that Beijing isn’t about to announce “massive stimulus” moves to boost growth or combat deflation.

To be sure, China is mulling a special sovereign bond scheme to issue 1 trillion yuan ($139 billion) of new debt. The idea would be to sell ultra-long sovereign bonds to improve efficiency in sectors like energy, food, supply chains and urbanization planning.

But the real reasons so many global investors wonder if China is safe are an underdeveloped financial system and regulatory uncertainty.

As Bloomberg reports, SC Lowy Financial HK Ltd finds the “credit space uninvestable there” due to murky legal certainty and poor corporate disclosure. Thus, the investment firm has “very little exposure to China.”

At Davos this week, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon told CNBC that the “risk-reward calculation” on China has “changed dramatically” despite Xi’s team being “very consistent” in opening up to financial services companies. That, he added, leaves global funds “a little worried.”

In the short run, Beijing is asking institutional investors not to dump large blocks of Shanghai or Shenzhen stocks. Regulators also are working to curtail big investors’ ability to be net sellers of shares on certain days.

As the Financial Times reports, this so-called “window guidance” is being pursued to calm nerves in both equity and debt markets. Yet this treats the symptoms of Chinese stock troubles, not the underlying causes.

The need for a clear and bold commitment to structural reforms was crystalized by a December 5 downgrade warning by Moody’s Investors Service.

It lowered Beijing’s credit outlook to negative from stable citing “structurally and persistently lower medium-term economic growth” and a cratering property sector. But also, because of China’s increasing financial volatility.

Xi and Li know what’s needed: greater government transparency; better corporate governance; more reliable surveillance mechanisms; a credible independent credit rating system; and a robust market infrastructure that keeps foreign investors engaged.

True, Moody’s noted that the “economy’s vast size and robust, albeit slowing, potential growth rate, supports its high shock-absorption capacity.”

Yet a bewildering array of headwinds slamming cash-strapped local governments and SOEs are “posing broad downside risks to China’s fiscal, economic and institutional strength.”

To its credit, China has made vital progress since 2016 to make its markets more hospitable to overseas investors. That was the year the PBOC secured a place for the yuan in the International Monetary Fund’s “special drawing rights” program.

The yuan’s inclusion in the IMF’s exclusive club of reserve currencies, joining the dollar, euro, yen and the pound, was a pivotal moment for Beijing’s financial ambitions.

In the years since, Xi’s team vastly increased the channels for foreign investors to tap mainland stock and bond markets. Shanghai stocks were added to the MSCI index, while government bonds were included in the FTSE Russell benchmark. among others.

China has resisted depreciating the yuan. Image: Twitter Screengrab

As demand for the yuan and its global usage in trade and finance grows, China’s tolerance for a stronger currency has surprised markets.

Perhaps no policy lever would hasten Chinese growth faster or more convincingly than a weaker exchange rate. However, Xi’s Ministry of Finance has avoided engaging in a race to the bottom versus the Japanese yen, earning it points in market circles.

Yet the opacity that still pervades Beijing decision-making and Shanghai dealing remains a turnoff for all too many global punters.

Not all, of course. JP Morgan strategist Marko Kolanovic thinks the big drop in Chinese equities is “disconnected from fundamentals” and buying opportunities abound.

“We believe this is a good opportunity to add given an expected growth recovery, gradual Covid reopening, and monetary and fiscal stimulus,” Kolanovic says.

The odds are even greater, though, that China’s stock rout deepens further as Xi and Li navigate this transitional moment.

At some point, China will fix the property sector and build broader social safety nets to increase consumption. And its capital markets will one day be ready for global primetime. In the meantime, the CSI 300 could be in for quite a rocky ride.

Follow William Pesek on Twitter at @WilliamPesek

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