Hong Kong exports rebound despite Sino-US trade war – Asia Times

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After a considerable year-on-year reduction in the same period last year, Hong Kong’s exports and imports rebounded in the first third of this year.

The logistics hub saw its exports rise 11.9 % to HK$ 1.06 trillion ( US$ 135 billion ) in the first three months of this year from a year ago, according to the Census and Statistics Department. Its imports surged 8 % to HK$ 1.14 trillion for the same time. &nbsp,

Neither figure has yet returned to the levels of 2021 and 2022 as the city’s exports and imports fell 17.7 % and 12.7 %, respectively, in the first quarter of last year.

A spokesperson for the Hong Kong government claimed that while exports to the United States and Europe remained on decline, a rise in exports to land China contributed to the rise in total imports. &nbsp,

He claimed that despite improving physical desire, high global geopolitical tensions and limited cash in the financial market will continue to have a negative impact on Hong Kong’s imports. &nbsp,

Michael Li, sin- chairman of the Hong Kong Chinese Importers ‘ &amp, Exporters ‘ Association, said the damaging factors seen in the first quarter of 2023, including the Ukrainian- Soviet war, the US- China social fight and the US rate hike, are fading out.

He claimed that, unless some fresh negative aspects arise, Hong Kong’s exports have returned to normal during the first quarter of this year and are likely to increase by 8 to 12 % for the entire year starting in 2023. &nbsp,

He claimed that the West’s attempt to advance the so-called de-Sinization of the global supply chain failed. He claimed that there were many overseas buyers at this year’s Canton Fair, a trade show held annually in Guangzhou. &nbsp,

According to Chinese press, there were more foreigners attending this year’s Canton Fair, particularly those from Russia, the Middle East, and South America. &nbsp,

Some foreign buyers are drawn to China’s low prices of digital goods and electric vehicles, while some US importers prefer to purchase today because they worry that US-China trade relations will crumble ahead of the US national elections in November.

As Donald Trump threatens to increase tariffs on Chinese goods, according to Ryan Lam, head of research at Shanghai Commercial Bank, some companies are putting their China development plans on hold. However, Lam still anticipated that due to the country’s strong demand for phones and electronic components in foreign countries, its exports would increase by 8 to 9 % this year from 2023. &nbsp,

Trade with Russia&nbsp,

The US and the European Union are increasingly concerned about Hong Kong’s package of northern chips and digital goods to Russia.

In a statement released in April 2023, Nikkei claimed that between February 24 and the close of the year, cards produced by Intel and Advanced Micro Devices from Hong Kong and Russia amounted to at least US$ 74 million. In 2021, it stated that the number would only be US$ 51 million. &nbsp,

In December, the Washington-based analytical non-profit C4ADS reported that Hong Kong and Hong Kong were the main ports of high-end bits to Russia. According to the statement, Hong Kong has already become the world’s main port for cards entering Russia. &nbsp, &nbsp,

The US Commerce Department has previously slapped a number of Hong Kong and Foreign firms that had shipped US high-end technology and cards to Russia over the past two years. &nbsp,

According to a study released by the Hong Kong Trade Development Council, Hong Kong’s exports to Russia increased 11.2 % to US$ 2.66 billion last year from$ 2.62 billion in 2022, accounting for about 2 % of the city’s total imports. &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp,

The exported goods include communications equipment and parts, computers, semiconductors, electrical valve and tubes. &nbsp,

Hong Kong imported some precious metals and stones from Russia in 2023, along with electronic gadgets and semiconductors. Credit: Hong Kong Trade Development Council

For the same time, Hong Kong’s exports from Russia surged 118 % to US$ 3.06 billion, 96 % of which were imports of gold and silver items, gems and precious and big- precious stones. &nbsp,

Financial atomic weapons

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed concern about China’s aid for Russia’s military during a meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday in Beijing. &nbsp,

He claimed that China was providing a range of products, including “dual-use items that Moscow is using to ramp up its defense business bottom,” including microelectronics, chemicals for munitions and jet propellants, and “dual-use items that Moscow is using to ramp up its defence industrial bottom.”

Normal trade between the two countries should n’t be halted or restricted, according to Chinese officials, as long as China does not provide any weapons to Russia.

Janet Yellen, the US Treasury Secretary, warned Beijing officials on April 8 that sanctions could be applied to Chinese banks that support Russia in the wake of its conflict in Ukraine. Because they can forcefully hit the sanctioned banks, these curbs are referred to by the media as “financial nuclear bombs.” &nbsp,

Russian state newspaper Izvestia reported on April 12 that Chinese banks, including Bank of China and Great Wall West China Bank, have recently started preventing payments from Russia, particularly for crucial electronic components like laptops, storage, and servers. &nbsp,

On April 22, a US official told Reuters that the country has no concrete plans to impose sanctions on Chinese banks.

New economic world order

Chinese exporters can only receive payment in renminbi from Russia through either underground banks or a cross-border payment system called Multilines Corp., according to a Chinese columnist by the name of Hong in an article published last month.

He asserts that Multilines is a trustworthy business capable of accepting payments from Russian companies that have been sanctioned. &nbsp,

According to Multilines ‘ website, the company offers full- fledged services that cover the buying, selling, importing, exporting and hedging of precious metals. It has offices in China’s Chongqing and Hong Kong. &nbsp,

Ali Hussnain, chairman and chief executive of Multilines, studied marketing at the Lahore University of Management Sciences in Pakistan. He is also the chairman of the Economic &amp, Business Advisory Council of the Pakistan House, a think tank based in Islamabad and Bronshoj, Denmark. &nbsp,

Muhammad Athar Javed, the founder of Pakistan House, asked Russian President Vladimir Putin in a plenary session of the Valdai International Discussion Club in Moscow in October whether Russia could use its natural resources to create a new economic world order. &nbsp,

Putin claimed that China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the Eurasian Economic Community can work together to overthrow the US dollar’s hold on the global stage. &nbsp,

Read: Blinken to China to fuss about support for Russia

&nbsp, Follow Jeff Pao on X: &nbsp, @jeffpao3

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No limit to how low the yen will go – Asia Times

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Who needs Las Vegas or Macau when betting on the yen’s potential lower is the best match anywhere in Tokyo?

It’s not where the&nbsp, Bank of Japan&nbsp, wanted to find itself this month as it mulled interest rate plan. That Governor Kazuo Ueda’s team did nothing on Friday ( April 26 ) was hardly surprising.

What was sudden, although, is Tokyo’s absence of urgency to end yen declines that danger upending economic interactions from Beijing to Washington.

In neighboring China, the dollar’s 10.6 % fall so far this year has Xi Jinping’s group mulling its individual choices.

Despite 5.3 % rise in the first quarter year on year, financial selling remain sweet, “pointing to weaker need”, says Carlos Casanova, scholar at Union Bancaire Privée. This suggests that regional consumption decreased in March in line with broad-based consumer price index drops.

China’s industrial output even continues to offend. This may suggest that production is not gaining as much from the continuous recovery in global trade as we had anticipated, according to Casanova, because of overcapacity constraints in key sectors, she says.

These overcapacity changes could exacerbate recession. No policy change did cause client costs to maintain more quickly than a weaker yuan. Does Xi and People’s Bank of China Governor&nbsp, Pan Gongsheng&nbsp, tilt toward a weaker rmb?

Xi’s inner sphere might interpret the dollar’s sharp decline as political include to create a more effective exchange rate that would increase exports and calm upward price pressures.

There would be just as some drawbacks as pros, though. As house developers struggle to pay off offshore loan, a weaker yuan could increase the risk of failures. It may hinder efforts to boost chinese confidence. Additionally, it might make fun of the US social creation as the November 5 election draws near.

This final risk is a huge one for Japan, also. An also weaker renminbi is sure to irritate politicians across the board despite Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s close ties to US President Joe Biden. Republicans devoted to Donald Trump are likely to find a common ground with Binden’s Democrats over the fall in Asian exchange rates.

Biden recently announced plans to impose new tariffs on imported Taiwanese steel and aluminum. Trump, of course, is previewing 60 % fees on all mainland products. He’s even talking about a 100 % tax on specific car imports, a&nbsp, gambit&nbsp, that Chinese CEOs fear had simply come for their vehicles, to.

Chinese officials are trying to pull off a challenging balancing act as these threats grow. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki claims to be “watching business movements with a great sense of urgency,” but his group also is monitoring the raise Japan is receiving from a poor yen.

Japan’s imports rose 7.3 % yr- on- season in March. Additionally, the country is experiencing an unheard-of increase in hospitality driven by international visitors who are yen-stripped.

However, Tokyo’s leaders are aware that the effects of a falling exchange rate could have a negative impact on the country. The hour news channels feature the receding yen. For homeowners, it’s smacking more of Chinese weakness in world lines than financial recovery.

World investors&nbsp, are grappling with a tantalizing dilemma. If” Japan is back”, as a Nikkei 225 Stock Index at 34- time highs suggests, why is the renminbi in freefall piping a 34- time low? And why has the BOJ lacked the will to restore near-zero costs since 1999?

On Friday, the BOJ doubled down on its do- little plan. Ueda &amp, Co held its benchmark policy rate at 0 %- 0.1 %. &nbsp, Merchants, in other words, have much reason to fear the BOJ, at least for now. And it seems a safe bet that the yen’s decline to 160 to the dollars will result in.

Despite the fact that the renminbi is at its lowest point in 34 years, global investors have every reason to believe the yen has overheated.

For one thing, it’s fueling inflation that’s affecting customer and business trust. For one thing, it’s a growing breeze for businesses that rely on the local market for their profits. Despite the hospitality wave, retailers and travel companies are struggling.

All this is breaking investment methods. As 2024 began, gamblers figured the biggest Japanese&nbsp, wage increases &nbsp, among union employees in more than 30 years would make a virtuous cycle of spending and business income.

They also affirmed their belief that the Federal Reserve in Washington did cut interest rates by at least five times this month, boosting the renminbi.

With each fresh batch of regular data, these expectations are waning. Rie Nishihara, a JPMorgan researcher, warns that gains in inflation-adjusted wages will essentially be a clean if the renminbi falls to 157 per buck.

The vast majority of work are provided by little and mid-sized businesses, but they are already hampered by rising import fees. The same goes for large corporations.

” The situation]with the yen ] has reached a level that needs to be corrected”, says Takeshi Niinami, head of the Japan Association of Corporate Executives.

Strategist Shusuke Yamada at BofA Securities Japan notes that the eerie silence from&nbsp, Tokyo policymakers&nbsp, is n’t going unnoticed in trading pits around the globe.

The BOJ should recognize that policy has been too indulgent, that the upcoming rate hike is immediate as it is in June, and that the terminal rate may be higher than the market had predicted, according to Yamada.

Some, though, doubt the Ministry of Finance is on the point of acting.

” The Bank tail will not be allowed to tickle the dog”, said Vishnu Varathan, planner at Mizuho Bank. The BOJ even is likely to adhere to its plan of “dovish restriction” when it comes to tweaking brief- term rates, he said.

Yet the danger is that “if the BOJ abstains from intermediate, the yen may experience more upward pressure”, says Eman AlAyyaf, CEO of EA Trading.

She adds that the BOJ wants to prevent a” sustained pressure from higher US interest rates” from causing a sharp upward trend in the yen at the same time.

Arguably, Ueda’s BOJ brought today’s dilemma on itself by&nbsp, slow- walking steps&nbsp, to exit quantitative easing ( QE ). Since April 2023, when Ueda took command, international markets have been primed for a tilt apart from QE, or zero costs.

Month after month, Ueda’s staff demurred. Then, as China’s market slows, the BOJ’s glass to restore scheme is narrowing. Japan’s prices changes are showing symptoms of restraint, too.

Tokyo’s core inflation rate, which excludes fresh food and energy, slowed to 1.8 % year on year in April from 2.9 % in March. Since September 2022, the raise was the smallest.

” The schedule of the next BOJ interest rate hike does get a little complicated as the latest&nbsp, Tokyo inflation&nbsp, data for April slowed down from the previous quarter and came in below anticipation”, says Kelvin Wong, scientist at OANDA.

It’s hardly helpful to hear on Thursday that the US’s economy may be slowing more than initially anticipated. US gross domestic product grew just 1.6 % year on year in the first quarter, well below all economists ‘ projections.

” This report was the worst of both worlds: economic growth is slowing and inflationary pressures are persisting”, says Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance.

Most economists still give the US the benefit of the doubt right now. The downshift may have masked otherwise solid&nbsp, economic momentum.

” The economy is at full employment, with unemployment steadfastly below 4 %, and growth remains close to the economy’s potential, with real GDP tracking close to 2 %”, says Dante DeAntonio, economist at Moody’s Analytics.

DeAntonio adds that “growth continues to surprise, and consumers are growing their spending. Businesses are also playing their part. Inflation remains the sole blemish. Although economic growth will not reach its full potential for a season, recession risks have decreased as the economy continues to be resilient.

The end result is that Asian central banks are now more perplexed than ever about the Fed’s policy outlook. The BOJ is Exhibit A, especially considering domestic economic conditions also refute the need for tighter credit controls.

Takeshi Yamaguchi, chief Japan economist at Morgan Stanley MUFG, states that” consumer sentiment is generally weak as individuals cope with higher costs and do not anticipate wages to keep up with inflation.”

Here, &nbsp, Ueda may be worried&nbsp, the BOJ will be blamed for pushing Japan into a recession. That’s what happened in 2006, the last time the BOJ tried — and failed — to normalize rates.

Governor Toshihiko Fukui then put an end to QE, and his team at the time were able to raise the official rates twice. The recession that followed enraged the political establishment. By 2008, Fukui’s successor was resurrecting QE and pushing rates back to zero.

In 2013, Ueda’s predecessor Haruhiko Kuroda supersized the BOJ’s balance sheet, growing it to a size bigger than Japan’s US$ 4.7 trillion GDP.

Since then, as the BOJ hoarded bonds and stocks, it’s become harder to discern where the BOJ’s portfolio ends and the private sector begins. In consequence, withdrawing liquidity is much more difficult than it was in 2006.

The yen’s spectacular drop might force Ueda’s hand, though. The advantages of a weak yen are quickly being overshadowed by the negative effects of a currency in relative free fall. Not least of which is insulting Beijing and Washington policymakers who already have enough on their plates.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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Massive fraud case exposes Vietnam’s corrupt bank system – Asia Times

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How much is dependent on bank operation in the world as evidenced by the 2008 financial problems. Authorities have since been given new forces to retain some of the biggest organizations on a much shorter rope to stamp out chance, greed, and corruption.

But this approach has n’t worked everywhere. A woman in Vietnam was given the death penalty on April 11, 2024, after obtaining US$ 44 billion in false money from one of Vietnam’s largest businesses.

By avoiding a Taiwanese law that forbids anyone from owning more than 5 % of a company’s stock, Truong My Lan took the money, the majority of which is improbable to be recovered, out of Saigon Commercial Bank (SCB). She eventually became the owner of more than 90 % of the institution by using various means, including lots of shell companies.

Meanwhile, the loans that she took out ( worth just under 10 % of Vietnam’s GDP for 2024 ) made up 93 % of the bank’s entire lending portfolio. She frequently retracted large sums of money from her room.

Lan is expected to charm the judge’s ruling. However, this extraordinary situation of fraud, which uses deposits to bank loans, highlights the natural vulnerabilities of banks. Put simply, for every £10 ($ 12.45 ) deposited, a bank could lend up to £9 ($ 11.22 ) to fund mortgages or corporate loans, keeping just £1 ($ 1.25 ) as a reserve to allow for withdrawals.

However, the bank might not have enough cash in reserve to cover it if depositors demand a sizable amount of cash in the event that they wish to remove it at all. After Lan’s imprisonment in 2022, SCB was subject to a bank robbery, which meant the bank has been in state power ever since.

To minimize this kind of scenario, banks in most places are properly regulated. Many people are now required to hold more capital and cash to withstand anxiety, as has the global financial crisis.

The magnitude of the fraud and corruption at SCB highlights the disastrous effects a crooked atmosphere can have on the financial sector. Various studies have shown that problem can negatively impact bank stability, lower lending, and raise the risk of bank crises.

The SCB test was a significant component of the so-called” Blazing Furnace” campaign, which targeted politicians and business leaders in an effort to remove corruption from the Asian government and economy, for a long time.

But it may not be that easy.

There is a claim that corruption you really have social benefits in some circumstances, such as helping to “grease the wheels” of a sluggish economy. Some claim that the Vietnamese economy has experienced substantial economic growth in recent years ( the sector has tripled in size since 2010 ) mainly as a result of high levels of corruption. What happened with SCB is very common ( on a smaller size ) in the country.

This theory is supported by research that suggests that corruption can actually play a supporting role in society rather than always being financially destructive.

The theory is that corruption can often speed things along while avoiding bureaucracy’s inadequate restrictions in places with slow-moving administration and limitless red tape.

Corrupting forces

In some circumstances, problem can lead to more efficient business and institution functioning. Jobs get started, careers are created, agreements are awarded. Things get done.

Hand emerging from swirls of red tape.
Limiting red tape. Image: Lightspring / Shutterstock via The Talk

Of course, that’s not to say there should be more corruption; it only serves as an illustration that its effects can be more complex than we might consider. And we need to keep in mind that corruption may also occur within the regulatory system.

Although corruption-focused financial regulation may be successful, it can lead to fraud when the authorities have too much control over their actions. According to studies, it opens up opportunities to be paid for government contracts, subsidies, and governmental favors.

Even so, it has been claimed that laws put in place after the US’s economic crisis, specifically designed to stop another issue, increased the risk of fraud.

However, global cooperation is possible. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, which adopts regulatory recommendations for the banking industry, is comprised of developed markets like the UK, the US, and the EU. By establishing shared requirements, monitoring each other’s processes, and exchanging information, this protects the member states and their citizens from fraud.

In the west, therefore, an extreme event like the one we saw in Vietnam is unlikely to occur. However, constant vigilance is necessary because even the policies and regulations put in place to keep high standards are exposed to the problem they are intended to avoid.

George Kladakis is Lecturer in Finance, University of St Andrews

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.

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‘Fake friend’ scammers could be using PayNow to search for victims, experts suggest masking users’ names

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More than 6, 300 survivors were victims of the “fake buddies” scams between January and November of last year, according to police statistics. The losses amounted to over S$ 21 million.

According to Mr. Supramaniam, the offenders ‘ abuse is really never at the top of their minds for the majority of patients.

They do n’t want these people to face charges and spend time in jail, they say. The constitutional consequences, they are extra. They just want to reclaim the funds as it’s their benefits”.

Exercise CAUTION

Personal details could still be found even if users hid their PayNow names, according to NUS Associate Professor Pang, given how digitalized world is today. For instance, individuals frequently use their real labels on messaging apps like WhatsApp and Telegram.

” Be extremely cautious about the types of personal information you put out about yourselves, such as your brands, phone numbers and names”, said Assoc Prof Pang, who is with the school’s contacts and new advertising section.

” One should also regularly check the privacy settings of software like social media and chat apps, to limit the presence of one’s account and who can view your information and account.”

Users should be cautious when someone claiming to be a friend or acquaintance calls for favors or money, according to NTU’s Associate Professor of Business, who has personally received a false friend scam call.

Users may artistically verify the identity of the person because voice cloning is now so advanced that it is possible to replicate someone’s voice with only a few minutes of audio recording.

Scammers can also copy a friend’s appearance using algorithmic technology, but he claimed that the required amount of computing power makes scaling quite operations more challenging.

While customers may remain vigilant, the&nbsp, responsibility to protect clients lies largely with the bankers, &nbsp, Assoc Prof Law said.

Under existing Personal Data Protection Act regulations, organisations are required to employ security measures to protect private data from illegal entry, collection, use, publication or related risks, he explained.

To protect their customers ‘ data and prevent it from being abused by scammers, banks should ensure that their methods and practices agree with these rules, he said.

With the rise in con cases reported in Singapore, the UOB director stated that protecting customers is top of its list and that it has “progressively introduced different security settings and measures.”

In this ever-evolving threat landscape, the spokesperson said,” Our customers remain the single most effective defense,” and we urge them to be vigilant and cautious.

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World’s 1st full-fledged cyber war raging since 2022 – Asia Times

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Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked the start of what should be termed – in view of the extraordinary scale and style of the computer activities that accompanied Russia’s military activities – the world’s second cyber warfare.

It gave the world perspective into how digital procedures had been integrated with the real battle going forward.

Also, Ukraine showcased to the international community not only the vital importance of strong digital defenses but also the difficulty involved in their execution. This difficulty arises from the partnership that extends beyond the help of European governments to include the key achievements of software companies in strengthening Ukraine’s cyber defenses.

In the months leading up to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, a series of attacks was launched against Russian goals. On January 13 of that year, Microsoft detected and reported ransomware that was targeting the Ukrainian Government aand several non-profit businesses and IT companies.  

That turned out to be portion of a broader pattern of modern anger attributed to Russia. The following morning, Russia escalated its cyber conflict, conducting a major cyberattack that affected several Russian government institutions and resulted in dozens of government websites being controlled by hackers.  

In response, NATO stepped up its support for Ukraine in the cyber domain, which included providing Ukraine with access to NATO’s system for sharing information about malicious software.

The cyberattacks continued into mid-February, culminating in a distributed denial of service ( DDoS ) attack that temporarily disabled the online services of several Ukrainian government departments, financial institutions and radio stations. The attacks took down Ukraine’s two largest banks, PrivatBank and Oschadbank. PrivatBank had to release a statement assuring the public that there was no threat to depositors ’ funds.  

These attacks were intended to create panic and confusion and to destabilize Ukraine and were attributed to Russia’s Ministry of Defense Intelligence Directorate ( GRU).   On February 24, 2022, one hour before Russia began its full-scale invasion, a cyberattack with a wiper malware called AcidRain was launched against the American commercial satellite internet company Viasat, erasing all the data on its systems.

One of the Viasat modems attacked with AcidRain malware. Photo: BankInfoSecurity

This attack not only caused outages for thousands of Ukrainian customers but also impacted wind farms and internet users in other European countries. Russia’s primary target was believed to be the Ukrainian military as it wanted to disrupt Ukrainian military communications at the onset of the Russian invasion, hindering Ukraine’s defensive capabilities as Russia invaded the country. Ukraine’s army relied on Viasat’s services for maintaining command and control.  

Russia had attempted to coordinate cyberattacks with its ground invasion to maximize its operations on the ground and to showcase the devastating damage that could be caused to critical infrastructure ahead of an invasion. The most devastating attack on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure came in December 2023 when Russia took down Kyivstar, Ukraine’s biggest mobile network operator, damaging much of the telecom company ’s IT infrastructure.

This could have been in retaliation for the hacking by Ukrainian intelligence of Russia’s state tax service ( this attack happened right before the Kyivstar incident ), which completely destroyed the agency’s infrastructure and will impact the functioning of the agency for years to come.

Over half of Ukraine’s people use Kyivstar and, as a result, millions were unable to receive lifesaving air raid alerts. Kyivstar CEO Oleksandr Komarov described the attack as “the biggest cyber attack on telco infrastructure in the world. ”

Komarov also pointed out that Kyivstar has repelled over 500 attacks on its infrastructure since the full-scale invasion started.

Around 30 % of the cashless payment terminals of PrivatBank – Ukraine’s largest bank – stopped working because they rely on Kyivstar’s mobile network.  

The hackers were able to breach Kyivstar via a compromised account belonging to an employee.  

The Kyivstar incident underscores a key cybersecurity lesson: even the most fortified infrastructures are vulnerable to breaches – often due to the human factor, which can serve as the weakest link in security defenses. Illia Vitiuk, head of the Security Service of Ukraine’s cybersecurity division, said that the hackers had been infiltrating Kyivstar since at least May 2023. He said that the attack should serve as a “big warning ” to the West that no one is untouchable. Kyivstar had invested heavily in protecting itself but the cyberattack “completely destroyed the core of a telecoms operator. ” 

Following the Kyivstar attack by Russia, Ukraine retaliated with a cyberattack against Moscow-based water utility company Rosvodokanal, destroying the company ’s IT infrastructure. Over 50 terabytes of data were deleted, “including internal document management, corporate email, backups, and even cybersecurity protections. ”

Ukrainian hackers allegedly affiliated with Ukraine’s security services followed up by striking the Russian internet provider M9com on 9 January 2024; over 20 terabytes of data were deleted and Moscow residents lost internet and TV connections.  

The IT Army of Ukraine followed up with an attack on the Moscow-based internet provider, Qwerty, which was taken offline for over three days.  

Also, in January 2024, Ukraine’s military intelligence agency conducted a cyberattack on IPL Consulting, a company that supports Russia’s heavy industry and its military-industrial complex, reportedly obliterating the firm’s IT infrastructure.  

After infiltrating and deleting over 60 terabytes of data from IPL Consulting’s network, Ukrainian cyber experts destroyed numerous servers and databases, with the total cost of the damage still under assessment. The Russia–Ukraine cyber war is becoming more aggressive than ever and will continue to expand in the future to potentially more devastating critical infrastructure targets.

This is part six of a series, ‘Lessons from the first cyberwar. ’  Read part one ,  part two ,  part three ,  part four and part five. NEXT: How Ukraine has resisted Russia’s cyber offensive

David Kirichenko  is a Ukrainian-American security engineer and freelance journalist. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 he has taken a civilian  activist role.

These articles are excerpted, with kind permission, from  a report he presented at the UK Parliament  on February 20 on behalf of the Henry Jackson Society.

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CNA Explains: How a death sentence in Vietnam links to a massive anti-corruption drive

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What’s been the consequences?

SCB, Vietnam’s largest by property, misled 83-year-old Ho Thi Le Hang into buying false ties under Lan’s Van Thinh Lil Holdings Group.  

One of an approximated 42,000 patients, Hang hopes to get up the US$ 500,000- all of her life benefits, raised from selling two plots of her ancestors ’ property- she parted with. While some relationship manufacturers have defaulted their loan obligations, the rest of the securities have been frozen.

After Lan’s arrest in October 2022, Vietnam’s key bank placed SCB under particular supervision to quit a run- that is, customers were withdrawing their money in fear of the business lender’s possible failure.

This year, it was reported that the central banks had pumped US$ 24 billion in specific debts as of the beginning of April, in a bid to stop SCB from collapsing. That’s similar to one-fourth of the region’s foreign exchange reserves.

However, officials have expressed concerns over how fundamental issues in Vietnam’s finance field have gone undetected.  

From 2012 to 2020 SCB passed, without dark colors, assessment checks by regional offices of major global firms including Ernst & Young, Deloitte and KPMG. But after Lan’s forgery was exposed, individual assessments showed more than US$ 18 billion in accumulated costs.

Her case has even highlighted the issue with “cross-ownership ” in Vietnam’s banking sector, where personal businesspeople- including real estate developers like Lan- even hold important positions at business banks, properly using them as individual ATMs.

” Financial institutions need to put an end to the practice of providing loans to specific companies, projects in its own ecosystem or backyard firms under the same group that would endanger the healthiness and safety of the bank,” Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh said in December.

Vietnam has since amended laws to strengthen shareholder limits at banks. But experts say regulation alone is not enough in the absence of effective enforcement.

“There is no guarantee that it will be the last case … Violators have bypassed the laws easily, ” Dr Nguyen Tri Hieu, a banking insider, told CNA. “ I am not surprised at the fraud. But I am surprised at the magnitude of it. ” 

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Yuan internationalization drive hits a local speed bump – Asia Times

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As Taiwanese leader Xi Jinping works to increase the yuan’s role in global business and finance, he’s encountering an unforeseen rate knock: island companies.

Corporate executives are putting their feet down when it comes to converting foreign exchange earnings into local currency, according to new data from the People’s Bank of China ( PBOC).

In March, FX deposits rose to  US$ 833 billion   from$ 779 billion a month earlier, signaling that businesses are slow-walking moves to swap earnings into their home currency.

The most obvious explanation: higher offshore interest rates that are contributing to a weaker-than-expected yuan.

This enormously positive yield spread is not going to vanish anytime soon, according to Alvin Tan, a currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

The US and China rate differential is the most significant since 2007. This important fundamental fact, according to Tan, suffices to explain why Chinese exporters are reluctant to exchange dollars for yuan. ”

Another reason for Beijing’s currency managers to resist the urge to chase a falling yen downward in the months to come. It might have negative effects because it contradicts Xi’s grand plan for “yuanization.” ”

Granted, Xi and Premier Li Qiang have so far resisted the urge to devalue. A weaker exchange rate may be just the thing to boost exports and keep the country’s largest economy from experiencing deflationary strains, but it could also be the thing to keep exports at 5 % and keep deflationary pressures at bay.

There are a variety of reasons why Pan Gongsheng, the governor of the PBOC, and Team Xi have not followed the yen lower.

People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng faces a currency dilemma. Image: Twitter Screengrab

For one thing, it would make it more difficult for property development companies to pay offshore bonds, increasing the likelihood of more defaults involving China Evergrande Group. For another, it could make China an even bigger flashpoint ahead of the November 5 US election.

The biggest worry, though, is damaging Xi’s long-term priority to internationalize China ’s currency as an alternative to the US dollar.

According to Dmitry Dolgin, economist at ING Bank, “it appears that China’s expanding trade ties and financial infrastructure suggest that the potential for further yuanization has not been exhausted.”

As the yen drops to 34-year lows, Yoet Xi’s balancing act becomes more challenging. The yen ’s 9. 7 % drop this year alone is n’t making Beijing’s life easier as it struggles to stabilize consumer prices.

A stronger GDP may also give Xi’s reform team more latitude to deal with China’s property crisis, lessen the rate of rising youth unemployment, and lessen runaway local government borrowing.

When Fitch Ratings downgraded China ’s sovereign credit rating to “negative” from “stable ” earlier this month, it listed local and regional governments ’ financial strains among its biggest worries.

Municipalities, Fitch said, “have been affected by the property slowdown and some local government financing vehicles ( LGFVs ) are facing refinancing pressures. ”

According to Fitch, in the past year,” some highly indebted regions were permitted to issue about CNY1.” 4 trillion ($ 193. 5 billion ) in refinancing bonds to bring LGFV debt directly onto their balance sheets. In 2024, we anticipate that this issuance will continue. ”

So far, banks have been requested to support LGFV debt structures through restructurings, while local asset management companies have also stepped in with support, Fitch notes.

China’s Ministry of Finance responded by claiming that Fitch ratings do n’t effectively account for the potential benefits of fiscal policy in terms of fostering economic growth and stabilizing macro leverage. ”

The team led by Finance Minister Lan Fo’an asserts that China’s GDP is increasing by about 5 %. 3 %, contributing more than 30 % to world output.

As such, Beijing claims, “the long-term positive trend of China ’s economy has not changed, nor has the Chinese government’s ability and determination to maintain good sovereign credit. ”

Even so, central banks and international investors are n’t buying yuan assets as much as Xi’s government had hoped.

One reason is the US dollar’s stubborn strength. In February, foreign holdings of US Treasury securities surged to a record — and a fifth straight monthly rise — despite Washington ’s national debt hitting$ 35 trillion.

Photo: Reuters/Jason Lee
As a global reserve currency, the dollar is still in favor. Photo: Agencies

US government debt purchases increased by 8 % on average. 7 % in February alone to$ 7. 965 trillion, up from$ 7. 945 trillion in January as Belgium, Japan, the UK and other top economies loaded up on dollars.

This dollar-hoarding is more than offsetting Beijing’s efforts to reduce US holdings. In February, China ’s stockpile of Treasuries dropped$ 22. 7 billion to$ 775 billion.

The BRICS economies ‘ wider efforts to marginalize the world’s reserve currency are also spooked by dollar purchases.

The governments of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa have n’t been quiet about “de-dollarization ” efforts, with an important assist from Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members.

Given China ’s scale and role as the top trading nation, a pivot from dollars to yuan seems like the most obvious changing-of-the-guard option.

Defined by the BRICS alliance’s desire to dethrone the dollar by persuading developing nations to use local currencies for trade and finance instead.

This determination has only grown more powerful as a result of US President Joe Biden’s administration’s efforts to undermine China’s tech sector and “weaponize” the dollar as part of policies to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

Christian Lindner, the minister of finance in Germany, warns that the thawing of Russian assets in the wake of Ukraine’s tensions could threaten sovereign immunity and financial stability.

International financial stability may be endangered, according to Lindner. We would lose more in the long run than we would gain. ”

Yet the ditch-the-dollar enterprise seems to have lost momentum, at least for now, as the dollar continues to advance. This month, the  DXY index, a key measure of dollar strength, is up nearly 5 % so far this year.

One reason the dollar is confounding the BRICS is the durability of the “higher-for-longer ” era for US yields. Interest rates were expected to be cut by the Federal Reserve between five and seven times this year. Markets now wonder if the Fed will ease at all as inflation proves to be less transient than expected.

Lawrence Summers, the former US Treasury secretary, even wonders if the next move by Chairman Jerome Powell’s Fed might be to hike rates instead. This reversal is causing the yen to fall and keep the yen in decline.

The yuan is n’t alone. India’s rupee recently dropped to an all-time low versus the US dollar. Malaysia’s ringgit is trading near its lowest levels since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis. The central bank has delayed rate cuts due to concerns about further declines in the Philippine peso.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned this month that emerging economies are struggling to stem large capital outflows as the International Monetary Fund and World Bank hosted their spring meeting.

The rest of the world’s interest rates are not encouraging, Georgieva asserts. Higher interest rates increase the US’s appeal, making financial flows flow here, which causes the rest of the world to struggle a little bit. ”

Georgieva comes to the conclusion that, if it persists for a long time, it might turn out to be a little uneasy in terms of financial stability. ” 

In March, IMF data showed the US dollar accounted for almost 60 % of all global foreign reserves. The share of global foreign reserves in the currency increased by 0 percent. 2 percentage points in 2023.

Despite this, Xi seems as determined as ever to raise the yuan’s reputation worldwide.

In 2016, Xi’s efforts to strengthen the financial system and increase transparency paid off when the yuan was welcomed into the International Monetary Fund ’s “special-drawing rights ” program.

The yuan’s trust increased as a result of joining the most exclusive currency basket with the dollar, yen, euro, and pound.

Since then, its use in finance and trade has increased steadily. In FTSE-Russell’s and MSCI’s stocks indexes and others, Chinese government bonds held a prominent position in that growing role.

However, Chinese assets may lose value because of the yuan’s softness. So do perceptions that  In Xi’s next five years, his goals for greater control may outweigh growing Chinese influence. competitiveness and transparency.

The yuan’s potential impact on the world as China modernizes its economy is still a good one. In terms of trade and official aid, there are indications that China Inc. is having doubts about the yuan’s trajectory, which suggests that Xi’s de-dollarization strategy is working better abroad than among Chinese businesses.

One solution is for Xi and Li to intensify reforms in the sectors of the property sector, local government finances, capital markets, and shifting the focus from exports to services and innovation. To increase global trust, Beijing also needs to fully convert the yuan.

China ’s yuan still has a trust problem. Photo: Facebook Screengrab

According to Alexandra Prokopenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, the issue is that “it is believed that the yuan ca n’t become a full-fledged reserve currency because of the current restrictions on capital transactions in China. ” ”

Although Russia and other sizable economies are using the Yuan to boost its status as an international reserve currency, Prokopenko notes that due to structural constraints, it is still a difficult currency to substitute for the dollar.

According to Rodrigo Zeidan, a professor of finance at New York University Shanghai, China cannot permit the flow of capital freely into its economy without running into a second domestic currency crisis. ”

According to him, it is important to see whether China will try to de-dollarize the world economy or to merely hedge against potential US sanctions. China’s access to the latter will remain limited for the foreseeable future. China would have to maintain free capital markets in an effort to de-dollarize. ”

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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Disbarred lawyer admits siphoning more than S7,000 from client with borderline intellectual functioning

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In: South-East Asia

SINGAPORE: A disqualified attorney started a consulting business and finally took money from a customer.  

Soraya Hafsa Ibrahim, 58, extorted money from a customer who had borderline academic working, requesting that he mark checks for money that she used to pay off her debt.  

On Monday ( April 22 ), Soraya admitted guilt to two of her three criminal breaches of trust as an attorney, as well as one count of accepting fees while being unauthorised while preparing legal documents.  

The attorney’s sentencing cost for the remaining count of unlawful breach of trust may be taken into account, which has been postponed.  

In total, the charges involve about S$ 527,000 ( US$ 386,900 ).  

According to the court, Soraya was summoned to the table in 1994 but was expelled on January 20, 2020 for a problem separate from the recent legal fees.  

Soraya was Soraya H Ibrahim &; ultimate attorney at the time. Co.

She deregistered the legislation firm a fortnight after being removed from the roll, but she opened SHI Consultancy on October 21, 2020.  

While at the firm, Soraya received a consumer who needed help with managing his dying mother’s estate. A cover board level, an insurance policy scheme, and bank records were included in this.  

The buyer, a 34-year-old guy, was deemed to possess borderline academic functioning. The Institute of Mental Health, but, determined that he was fit to manage the property of his late mother.  

After being unhappy with the primary law firm working for the same company, the lawyer’s caregiver introduced him to Soraya. Soraya was well aware of this lawyer’s mental incapacity.  

The customer then retained Soraya to assist him with property law issues involving his late family’s estate from April to May 2019.

She made arrangements to open an house bank account for this purpose. Money from the landowner’s assets were deposited into this accounts, with the customer as the ultimate member.  

Soraya began considering using the money from the bank account to relieve her economic woes after opening the bill.  

She asked the client to sign cheques and used them to make withdrawals, depositing more than S$ 527,000 of the ill-gotten gains into her own bank account.  

Trusting Soraya, and believing that she had his best interests at heart, the person signed the payments.

Eventually, Soraya used the majority of the money to pay off her personal expenses, including bank bills and friend loans.  

In August 2019, the gentleman reported to the authorities.  

The client later sued Soraya, who was ordered by the High Court to pay S$ 456,473. 21 to the consumer. Soraya paid the sum at some point after the final verdict was rendered, and she has since made whole compensation.  

Individually, a 36-year-old guy engaged Soraya in September 2021 to help reveal his family as the legal owner of his late father’s level.  

Soraya, who had already been struck off the roll, collected a fee of S$ 10,000 from the man. She informed him that she was operating a consulting and not practicing law.  

She did not inform him that she had been unfair, and she was therefore unable to handle the situation.  

Additionally, Soraya created the necessary paperwork to request letters of administration from her client. The client presented these with their signed copies in front of a commissioner of oath.  

After learning that Soraya had been charged in court with embezzlement, the man made a police report on October 28, 2022.  

He also felt that despite paying the fee, there was little progress in the matter for which he had engaged Soraya. For about two months, Soraya had been neglecting to update his case properly.  

” LOOK AT ACCUSED AS A MOTHER”: DEFENCE 

The prosecution requested an unspecified “high” fine and a jail sentence lasting between 60 and 80 months.  

Soraya was described by deputy public prosecutor Gladys Lim as a” seasoned lawyer” who disregarded the high standards of trust, honor, and integrity that a legal professional should a lawyer have.  

In court documents, Ms. Lim and Deputy Public Prosecutor Niranjan Ranjakunalan claimed that the accused’s crimes were grave, showed a complete disregard for the very interests her lay clients had trusted her to protect, and disregarded the legal profession.  

Ms. Lim cited the abuse Soraya had made of a vulnerable victim who she knew had a borderline intellectual functioning.  

Soraya’s lawyer, Mr Shashi Nathan, made an impassioned plea for the court to consider Soraya’s personal circumstances, for which he said differentiated her case from others.  

” Greed is often a motivation but in the present case, this is not here,” said Mr Nathan.  

He said that Soraya had three children, two of whom had done well but the third, a son, fell on “bad times” and mixed with the wrong company.  

This son fell into debt “in excess of S$ 600,000”, said Mr Nathan.  

” This is not Soraya as a lawyer, this is Soraya as a mother. She looked at what was happening to her son, she looked out at her (other ) two other children, she felt compelled to do something,” said Mr Nathan.  

She pondered how do I save my son, and this is why she committed this crime. She was having guests enter the house and bother her and her family. As his client looked over to her family in the gallery and wiped her tears, Mr. Nathan declared,” She was genuinely concerned about her family.”  

Soraya had handled hundreds of pro bono cases before she became a prominent lawyer at Syariah Court, according to Mr. Nathan.  

She lived in a very comfortable house. She did n’t have to get into this situation. She never sought to accept client funds, but a family tragedy altered everything. Perhaps out of desperation, perhaps out of a need to survive,” he added.

Mr Nathan sought no more than 34 months ‘ jail and a fine of S$ 3,000 for his client.  

Judge Jill Tan, the first district judge, adjourned the case until May 3 because she felt the sentencing would need some time.  

A criminal breach of trust as an attorney could result in a 20-year prison sentence and a fine.  

For preparing legal documents while unauthorised, a person could be fined up to S$ 10,000, or in default of payment to imprisonment, be jailed up to three months on a first offence.  
 

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