Why stock markets are no longer reflecting the economy – Asia Times

Lately, economists have been making a reasonably convincing case as to why stock markets are supposed to be suffering a setback, and yet continue to rise.

Even in Japan, a country mired in recession, stocks are trading at levels not seen for a long time.

Some would say that it is all due to a super-optimistic outlook; for example in the case of the US, the uptrends in the S&P 500, Nasdaq etc are due to an expected cut in interest rates.

Meanwhile, in Japan, the good momentum is explained by the conitunity of ultra-loose monetary policy and the regulator’s reluctance to end Abenomics.

But here’s the catch: Everyone seems to be turning a blind eye to the mountain of problems piling up. And we’re not just talking about regional banks and commercial real estate.

We’re talking about colossal debt bubbles that will never be paid off. Another risk is rising tensions, not only in armed conflicts but also in trade disputes.

For instance, US presidential hopeful Donald Trump is waving the tariff stick against European and Chinese products. Obviously, such protectionism will not be conducive to economic growth.

Why else are stocks skyrocketing?

First, investors are afraid they’ll miss out on this historic rally. It’s all going well now, so why not keep the party going?

Then there’s the feeling that, for many, stocks aren’t just about making money; they’re a kind of shield against geopolitical uncertainties and inflation. 

And the bigger the company, the more trust folks seem to have in it. That has made everyone forget about things like fair value.

The third factor is in the head: Thanks to the US Federal Reserve bailing out regional banks last year, many people are convinced that Big Brother will come to the rescue if things go wrong.

But here is the risky part: Spending all the ammunition now means that regulators will not have much left to intervene later (one only has to look at public debt and its servicing costs to understand why).

So when will a market crash become a reality?

For the tide to turn, one of two things has to happen: Either the money flooding the market dries up (which seems rather unlikely given the $6 trillion in money markets), or curveballs start coming our way. 

For example, if US regional banks fail left and right, it will create a domino effect that will eventually spill over to Europe and even Asia. But for that to happen, government support would have to disappear.

What we see in the market does not reflect the state of the economy. And the worst thing is that the positivity is based not so much on hopes for a bright future as on believing in the help of regulators.

But this is a slowly ticking time bomb that will eventually explode, and the longer we wait, the greater the damage will be.

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Rise in sustainability-linked loans by banks to SMEs, as segment seeks help in decarbonisation efforts

Ollo is not alone in approaching such a colossal investment.

Many other SMEs are adopting a wait-and-see approach due to large upfront costs, especially for infrastructure projects, according to Association of Small and Medium Enterprises (ASME) president Ang Yuit.

The decision is made even more complex, with considerations such as complicated certification processes and uncertain long-term returns, he said.

Mr Ang explained that SMEs have to think about profits and losses in the immediate and shorter term, and are especially sensitive towards the costs involved.

“Without a clear revenue or profit that can be had, if we move in this direction, for many, actually going into the adopting greener technology may require an immediate increase in capital expenditure, or maybe even operating expense, because you’re changing the way you’re operating,” he said.

SUSTAINABLE FINANCING

Sustainable financing is one way banks are helping SMEs overcome cost barriers.

Some banks even go beyond issuing loans, to help SMEs achieve certification targets and navigate the complex transition landscape.

OCBC’s head of global commercial banking Linus Goh told CNA that the biggest challenge most SMEs face in going green is a shortage of resources and time.

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Germany overtakes Japan as third-biggest economy

TOKYO: Once forecast to become the world’s biggest economy, Japan slipped below Germany last year to fourth place, official data showed on Thursday (Feb 15), although India is projected to leapfrog both later this decade. Despite growing 1.9 per cent, Japan’s nominal 2023 gross domestic product in dollar terms wasContinue Reading

More young Singaporeans taking loans to buy private homes, despite elevated interest rate environment

He added that some buyers see private properties as “a good investment (with) a potential to be able to build their wealth over time”. 
 
“The aspiration to buy and upgrade into private property remains very strong,” said Mr Lim. 
 
“And as long as one has the financial means and buys within their affordability, new launch private housing becomes increasingly more attractive to this group of buyers, compared to public housing.”

COPING WITH HIGHER INTEREST RATES

Mr Ryan Chia and his wife bought their S$1.2 million condo in Hougang in 2021, as it was near several schools and their parents’ homes, which were important considerations.
 
“We are preferably looking to stay here for about maybe 10 years or so,” said Mr Chia, who has a baby boy on the way.  
 
However, he has been hit hard by rising interest rates.
 
“Back then when I took out the loan, the interest rate was about 1 per cent. So the projected monthly instalment is about S$3,100,” said Mr Chia, adding that the interest rate has increased dramatically in recent years. 
 
“But right now the interest rate, because it’s a floating interest rate, is about 4.5 per cent. So, we’ll come close to maybe S$3,900 to S$4,000 for monthly instalments.”
 
Mr Chia is considering changing his loan to a fixed interest rate of about 3.5 per cent, so he can better project the monthly instalment and plan his finances. 

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Trump’s China trade war threat already roiling markets – Asia Times

Among the wackiest things to come from Donald Trump’s mouth recently is the former US president trying to take credit for China’s US$7 trillion stock reckoning.

“I mean, look, the stock market almost crashed when it was announced that I won the Iowa primary in a record,” Trump told Fox News on February 11. “And then when I won New Hampshire, the stock market went down like crazy.”

In reality, China’s spectacular stock rout has been playing out since 2021, well after Joe Biden moved into the White House. But there is one investor crowd taking notice of the growing odds Asia might soon be grappling with a Trump 2.0 presidency: currency traders.

Trump’s threats to impose tariffs exceeding 60% on Chinese goods has the cost of hedging the yuan soaring to the highest levels since 2017.

In China, “the most frequently asked questions among local investors include implications for China should Donald Trump become the next US president,” says Goldman Sachs economist Maggie Wei after a series of recent meetings with mainland mutual funds, private equity funds and asset managers.

Even today, well before Trump might have a chance to shake up global trade anew, “the outlook for trade flows going forward is likely one of moderation,” says Rubeela Farooqi, economist at High Frequency Economics. The downshift is thanks to “expectations of slower demand and growth going forward, both domestically and abroad.”

The specter of a supersized trade war is the last thing the global economy needs as 2024 unfolds. Any added headwinds from the West would compound the domestic troubles that have knocked Chinese stocks sharply lower, namely a deepening property crisis, weak retail sales, sputtering manufacturing activity and deflationary forces.

The threat of significantly higher taxes on Chinese-made goods destined for the US could slam business and household confidence. Executives might be even less inclined to add new jobs at a moment when youth unemployment is at record highs.

Trade war worries also might make China Inc less willing to fatten paychecks. This could imperil President Xi Jinping’s hopes of recalibrating economic engines toward a consumer demand-led growth model.

It also could lead to a big spike in exchange rate volatility and put downward pressure on the yuan. That’s precisely what Xi and Premier Li Qiang don’t want in 2024. For one, it could increase default risks of property developers with offshore debt. For another, it could set back Xi’s success to date in deleveraging the financial system.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang in a file photo. Image: NTV / Screengrab

Then there’s the upcoming US election. The one thing on which President Joe Biden’s Democrats and Republicans loyal to Donald Trump agree on is being tough on China. And a weaker yuan falling ahead of the November 5 contest could provoke Washington in unpredictable ways.

In the meantime, the mere threat of a bigger trade war could spook investors currently piling into US stocks. If Trump were to add another 60% tariff on top of those that he imposed during his 2017-2021 presidency, American consumers would bear the brunt through costlier goods.

Trump’s initial trade war neither catalyzed a US manufacturing boom nor narrowed the US trade deficit with China. Meanwhile, the US government had to throw billions of dollars of federal aid to US farmers as China scrapped purchases of American agricultural goods in retaliation.

A big spike in US tariffs would necessarily be inflationary, complicating the US Federal Reserve’s hopes of cutting interest rates. Prolonging the period of high US bond yields would undermine corporate America while also reducing household disposable spending.

The inflationary impact of a Trump 2.0 presidency could shake up the economic trajectory of nations everywhere, not least in export-oriented Asia. An analysis by Bloomberg Economics reckons that a 60% tax on all Chinese imports would effectively shrink a vital $575 billion trade relationship to a trickle. 

All this leaves Xi’s Communist Party with decidedly mixed feelings about whether China would fare better under another four years of Biden or a second Trump term.

On the surface, at least, Biden is endeavoring to restore ties with Xi’s party, a pivot on full display last November when Xi visited San Francisco for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit, a grouping dedicated to trade promotion.

Biden, though, has so far refused to lift the Trump-era tariffs that so enraged Xi’s economic team. The Biden administration also has gone at China’s soft targets with surgical precision, including limiting its access to cutting-edge technology like high-end semiconductors and the gamut of chipmaking equipment.

The last two years also saw the US devise a screening program to curb investments in China’s efforts to raise its game in quantum computing and artificial intelligence. Though Biden has taken the rhetorical tone down a notch, his policies have arguably exacted greater damage than Trump’s.

This includes investing hundreds of billions of dollars in domestic tech capacity that the Trump administration neglected. The US building new economic muscle at home worries Xi more than 1980s-style policies around which China can generally easily navigate. Here, think of Trump’s failed effort to kill giant Chinese telecom gear maker Huawei.

Looked at through this prism, there’s an argument that China might prefer Trump redux. As Zhu Junwei of Grandview Institution notes, there’s a reason the Beijing think tank’s research suggests 60% of Chinese prefer Trump because of how his unruly presidency might further dent America’s global standing.

Either way, Xi’s party is bracing for an US election cycle sure to see Democrats and Republicans trying to one-up each other at China’s expense.

Increased data security measures are sure to emerge as the year unfolds. The icy reception Shou Zi Chew, CEO of ByteDance-owned TikTok, received on Capitol Hill recently dramatized the race to curb services and transactions across industries.

China’s electric vehicles (EVs) market could face its own onslaught of data security speed bumps from either a Biden or Trump administration.

In a speech in late January, Biden’s National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said there are “competitive structural dynamics” in the US-China relationship. But, he claimed, this competition “doesn’t have to lead to conflict, confrontation or a new Cold War.”

It already seems too late for that. But as November 5 approaches, currency traders are becoming increasingly antsy, as seen in recent spiking volatility. The gap between nine-month implied volatility on the offshore yuan and measures of six-month volatility is the highest in nearly seven years.

China’s yuan faces new volatility as US election season heats up. Image: Twitter Screengrab

As that electoral contest approaches, strategists at Deutsche Bank expect the US dollar will stay mainly within 2023 ranges even if the US Federal Reserve begins cutting interest rates, as many investors expect. “The market is likely to start adding to a dollar safe-haven premium through the year as election risks build,” Deutsche Bank argues in a note.

There’s an argument, too, that the dollar might be doomed if Trump gets another shot at naming a Treasury secretary. In 1971, then-US president Richard Nixon’s Treasury chief famously said that “the dollar is our currency, but it’s your problem.” This seems even truer now than in 1971 and the sentiment could be supersized during a Trump 2.0 presidency, if his first term was any guide.

While running for president in May 2016, Trump even hinted at defaulting on US debt. Trump told CNBC “I love debt. I love playing with it.” When asked what he might do if the budget deficit grew too fast, he said: “I would borrow, knowing that if the economy crashed, you could make a deal. And if the economy was good, it was good. So, therefore, you can’t lose.”

In April 2020, the Washington Post detailed how Trump officials, looking to punish China, mulled canceling debt held by Beijing. However, Treasury officials succeeded in talking Trump out of a stunt that likely would have made the 2008 Lehman Brothers crisis seem like a hiccup.

But who knows what tricks Trump may have up his sleeve in a second term? The risk is hardly a non-negligible worry for Japan, China and other top Asian central banks sitting on more than $3 trillion of US Treasury securities.

The US entered 2024 with its national debt topping $34 trillion and Moody’s Investors Service warning it might yank away America’s only remaining top rating.

That came three months after Fitch Ratings downgraded the US to AA+ as Republicans and Democrats wrestled over funding the government and 12 years after a Standard & Poor’s downgrade amid partisan bickering over the debt ceiling.

More recently, Moody’s warned that “the greatest near-term danger to the dollar’s position stems from the risk of confidence-sapping policy mistakes by the US authorities themselves, like a US default on its debt for example. Weakening institutions and a political pivot to protectionism threaten the dollar’s global role.”

Moody’s adds that “although we expect that politicians will eventually agree to raise or suspend the debt limit and avoid a default on government debt, greater polarization in the domestic political environment over the last decade has weakened both the predictability and effectiveness of US policymaking. Sanctions further inhibiting the free flow of the dollar in global trade and finance could encourage greater diversification.”

Team Biden has raised concerns of its own over a “weaponized” dollar as Washington squares off with Russia over Ukraine. Those allegations emerged after the Biden administration, as part of sanctions, moved to freeze hundreds of billions of dollars of Moscow’s foreign reserves.

Yet at least one thing is clear: Asia’s markets will find themselves in harm’s way as Trump and Biden try to prove on the campaign trail who is tougher on China. But as the rival candidates flex and joust, there is much more at stake than the US presidency.

Follow William Pesek on X, formerly Twitter, at @WilliamPesek

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Money Talks Podcast: Choosing the best bank for you

Picking the right bank isn’t as straightforward these days. Beyond finding a reputable name to park your savings in, banks are also aggressively wooing customers with investment products, higher interest rates and customised financial planning. 

Prashant Aggarwal, CEO of the MoneyHero Group, guides Andrea Heng on how to choose the right bank for your needs. 

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Paytm: Rockstar Indian fintech start-up faces serious crisis

A QR code for the Paytm digital payment system at a store in Mumbai, India, on Thursday, Feb. 1, 2024. Shares of digital-payments provider Paytm plunged 20% after Indian regulators ordered it to halt a bulk of its business, dealing a severe blow to a high-profile tech pioneer that grappled for years with authorities.Getty Images

A small grocery store in India’s financial capital Mumbai has begun asking customers to pay cash as a popular digital payments service, which it used until now, is facing uncertainty over its survival.

India’s central bank has asked Paytm – the company that revolutionised digital payments in the country – to stop all services offered by its banking division, also known as the wallet service, due to “persistent non-compliance” of its rules. The division supports Swift payments through the Paytm app, which has more than 330 million users.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has reportedly accused Paytm of financial crimes, including falsifying customer information and money laundering.

It has asked the company to stop accepting deposits into people’s Paytm bank accounts, or wallets, from 1 March, although customers would be allowed to continue making payments until the balance in their accounts is exhausted.

Meanwhile, Paytm has denied the allegations. In a statement the company said that “the Paytm app remains fully operational, and our services are unaffected”.

The app can continue to facilitate quick payments between non-Paytm bank accounts as an intermediary but it can’t accept direct deposits.

This would severely impact the company’s wallet business. Paytm wallet is almost like a bank account in which people can receive deposits, keep money and make payments – all done by scanning a QR code or using mobile phone numbers as their identity.

People can also transfer money from their wallets to their accounts in other banks and vice-versa.

Not surprisingly, the regulatory crackdown has come as a blow to thousands of small business owners who relied on the app for making quick and easy transactions.

It has also left Paytm in a dire state, as investors pulled out billions of rupees after the company’s shares began to tank following the order.

Industry experts say the move could be a precursor to the payments bank losing its license in the next few weeks – further adding to investor nervousness.

On Thursday, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said Paytm had been given sufficient time to rectify lapses.

“The RBI action is always proportionate to the gravity of the violation and is in interest of systemic stability and protection of consumer interest. Action is taken when regulated entities do not take effective steps,” Mr Das said.

A Paytm spokesperson told the BBC that the firm was taking the RBI directive “very seriously”.

“We respect the RBI’s decision and are working diligently to address the concerns raised,” the spokesperson added.

A vegetable vendor waits for customers displaying a barcode for Paytm, an Indian cell phone-based digital payment platform, at a market in Kolkata,India on July 04,2023. (Photo by Debajyoti Chakraborty/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Getty Images

Paytm’s founder Vijay Shekhar Sharma, once named as India’s youngest billionaire, has been firefighting. He is motivating employees, calming investors and assuring merchants. Mr Sharma met RBI officials and reportedly even approached the country’s finance minister for help.

This isn’t the first time that Paytm has run into trouble with the banking regulator. Since 2018, the RBI has pulled up the firm at least four times over a series of lapses.

Srinath Sridharan, a financial expert, says that the central bank’s concerns are serious.

“The RBI has used provisions of a law that gives powers to the regulator to rule in public interest. This shows the gravity of the situation. Paytm has lost the regulator’s trust,” he said.

Launched in 2010, Paytm gained popularity after India banned high-denomination notes in 2016, a move that sucked cash out of circulation and boosted online transactions.

People began using the app for a range of transactions, including buying household goods, paying tuk-tuk drivers and even utility bills. Paytm saw big investments by Japanese technology investor SoftBank and counted Warren Buffett and China’s Alibaba among its early investors.

The Paytm payments bank – which is at the centre of the current regulatory storm – got its banking license in 2017.

The bank can accept deposits of up to 200,000 rupees ($2,411; £1,907) but it cannot lend money; it offers digital banking services, fixed deposits, and sells third-party insurance and loans.

The bank has 50 million accounts, including those of merchants who accept payments using the platform’s blue-and-white QR code stickers.

Mr Sharma has said that his company is exploring third-party banks to provide back-end banking support to merchant accounts, whose transactions contribute half of Paytm’s revenues.

But this would mean that the margins earned on deposits and transactions would have to be shared with the partner bank and would further strain an already loss-making entity – Paytm has lost nearly 80% market value since its stock market listing two years ago.

Additionally, the company might face challenges finding a banking partner due to the regulatory hassles its currently mired in.

Paytm has been trying to reassure merchants through calls and messages, but analysts say severe restrictions and uncertainty is likely to impact the company’s customer retention.

Traders have begun shifting from Paytm to other payment options. Banks, including the government-run State Bank of India (SBI), have already offered to help merchants transition with new QR codes and point-of-sale machines.

According to data by market intelligence firm, Sensor Tower, Paytm app has seen a 20% reduction in downloads since the RBI ruling, while rival apps like Google Pay and PhonePe have seen a 50% jump in downloads, Reuters news agency reported.

The bigger battle to fight will be on reputation, say experts.

A traditionally dressed Indian fan looks at his mobile phone on the third day of the third cricket Test match between Australia and India at the Sydney Cricket Ground (SCG) in Sydney on January 9, 2021. (Photo by SAEED KHAN / AFP) / -- IMAGE RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - STRICTLY NO COMMERCIAL USE -- (Photo by SAEED KHAN/AFP via Getty Images)

Getty Images

Experts say the ongoing crisis at the firm has raised questions about the efficiency of the firm’s managing board, which includes finance veterans and former RBI officials, and that the banking regulator may seek changes in the board’s management structure.

They have also expressed concerns over controlling interest of the founder in both the parent entity – One97 Communications, which houses the digital payments business – and the payments bank, saying the two are not operating at arm’s length.

The action against Paytm comes at a time when India’s most famous and expensive start-up – edtech company Byju’s – is facing problems after battling a series of financial challenges. This has led experts to question the role of corporate governance in high-profile start-ups.

It has also sent ripples across the country’s fintech and start-up firms – a group of founders have written to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and Mr Das urging a rollback of sanctions on Paytm, calling it detrimental for the Fintech ecosystem.

But Mr Das has clarified that the entire system needn’t be concerned as the issue is with a “specific institution”.

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Srettha touts debt initiative’s success

About B670m dealt with in two months

Srettha touts debt initiative's success
Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin speaks at a press conference on the solution to the informal debts nationwide. The Interior Ministry has been entrusted to mediate between debtors and creditors with the police acting against predatory lenders who resort to violent methods of dealing with defaulters. Chanat Katanyu

The government has managed to bring down the total amount of informal debts by 670 million baht in just two months, solving 102,000 out of 140,000 cases reported to authorities as part of the push to reduce the household debt burden.

According to Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, who is also finance minister, the progress is the result of extensive cooperation by all agencies tasked with solving the nation’s debt problems, including the Interior, Finance, Justice, Education, and Agriculture and Cooperatives ministries, along with several government-linked financial institutions.

He said 102,000 of more than 140,000 appeals for help received by the government since the initiative was launched on Nov 28 last year have been successfully resolved, bringing down the total amount of debt being handled by the government initiative by 670 million baht.

As of Dec 1, the initiative was handling about 9.8 billion baht in debt, which Mr Srettha pledged to clear up before his tenure as PM ends.

Speaking at a press conference on the matter on Monday, Mr Srettha said the Interior Ministry had been assigned to catalogue “off-system debts” to facilitate negotiations with informal lenders.

The RTP, meanwhile, is responsible for pursuing criminal charges against creditors that engage in illegal practices to force repayments, he said.

Other initiatives which will be launched as part of the effort to solve the nation’s ballooning household debt include “debt-solving markets”, which will be organised in every province four times a month.

Government-owned banks will offer low-interest loans to debtors who have successfully negotiated with their creditors, and local authorities will roll out courses to improve people’s professional skills to allow them to earn extra incomes, he said.

Citizens who are struggling with problems relating to debt can register for assistance at their local district office or by calling the Ministry of Interior’s Damrongdhama Centre via the 1567 24-hour hotline, according to Mr Srettha.

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Xi Jinping’s never-ending hunt for corruption in the Communist Party

Xi JinpingGetty Images

As the latest phase of Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption crackdown cuts through high-level banking and the elite nuclear rocket force, some have questioned when it might end.

The short answer: it won’t.

It has become a central plank of the system of governance for China’s leader.

And, because the anti-corruption drive has been used to remove anyone with even the slightest hint of a tendency to divert from his way of doing things, Mr Xi is sometimes characterised as an out-of-control Stalin-like figure purging left, right and centre without good cause.

But there are those who do not see it that way.

“Xi might be paranoid about high-level corruption, but his fear is not delusional,” says Andrew Wedeman, head of China Studies at Georgia State University.

“The corruption he fears is certainly real. It is likely also true, of course, that Mr Xi has capitalised on the crackdown to gain political advantage”.

Under Chairman Mao, the philosophy was that corruption could be controlled by fostering a love of the Party.

Then, during the Deng Xiaoping and Jiang Zemin eras, the idea took hold that, if you gave people a better living, they’d have less motivation to act corruptly.

By the time Hu Jintao was in change, most Chinese people had a much better life but there were those who wanted more and were prepared to use unscrupulous means to get it, again boosting fraud on a widespread scale.

Now it feels like Chairman Xi has gone all the way back to Mao’s way of doing things, putting a huge emphasis on Party loyalty to fix the problem.

And it is via the Party that these campaigns are launched, with investigations revolving around alleged breaches of its own regulations. It’s effectively a matter of organised politics with the Party running probes however it wants.

‘People simply disappear’

It can do this because most people with high-level positions in Chinese society are Communist Party members – whether in financial institutions, sporting organisations, government departments or universities.

But once a member, you are at risk of falling foul of Party discipline charges which are at times very vague and even relate to questions of personal morality and bringing the Party into disrepute.

During this process, the teams from the feared Anti-Corruption Commission simply make people disappear.

In theory, their families are supposed to be informed before they’re taken away for questioning in secret locations, but there’s no guarantee this will happen.

One day you simply stop being seen in public and the next it is assumed you are being interrogated for an indefinite period, with no legal representation or outside accountability.

- Delegates and China's top leaders beneath a Communist hammer and sickle emblem, 08 November 2002

Getty Images

And, while this is supposed to be cleaning up economic interaction so it will run more smoothly, the crackdown could well be having the opposite effect.

“It’s reducing incentive to be creative, entrepreneurial and risk-taking, which had been the driving force of [China’s] economic growth since 1979,” political scientist Lynette Ong from the University of Toronto told the BBC.

You’ll hear the expression “lying flat” used a lot in the China of today. It sometimes refers to those in their 20s dropping out of the “rat race”, while living at their parents’ home and whiling away the hours playing video games with no great ambition in life because they can’t see a positive future.

But it’s also being used to describe officials in state-owned enterprises or the private sector who are just doing enough work to keep their jobs, nothing more, nothing less. They see it as too risky to stand out by pushing for innovation or appearing too ambitious.

“Xi wants officials to be clean and hardworking,” says Deng Yuwen, who was once editor of the influential Communist Party newspaper The Study Times.

“But with Xi focussing on corruption, they’ll just ‘lay flat’. Mr Xi, of course, doesn’t want to allow this and is demanding that they work hard lest their corruption be exposed. But the crackdown has gone on for over 10 years now and officials have become used to it. If you chase me to do work, I’ll put in a bit more effort. If you stop using the whip on me, I’ll just take it easy for a while and ‘lay flat'”.

Big money, vast bribes

But the high-profile take-downs in recent months in the finance sector are a different matter, homing in on senior executives who are accused of being very active for the wrong reasons. Among those implicated for allegedly taking vast bribes are former chairs of major banks and one time regulators. More than 100 finance sector officials have been punished over the past year.

“Too many officials have been involved in financial corruption over many decades. It’s impossible to clean this up in one or two years,” says Mr Deng. “Banking was the big target last year. It will also be that this year and the same for the coming year as well”.

According to Prof Wedeman, “We ought to expect a lot of high-stakes corruption in the banking sector because, after all, the banks are where the big money is”.

However, if banking is where the money is in China it is with the military that ultimate power resides.

The People’s Liberation Army is not the country’s army, it is the Party’s army and it keeps it in absolute control.

So the purge of generals running the nuclear rocket force as well as that of the Defence Minister, Li Shangfu, has shown just how serious China’s corruption battle has become – with unscrupulous procurement processes reportedly pushing faulty gear all the way into the nuclear arsenal.

Li Shangfu

Getty Images

“We’re not only talking about embezzling funds or getting kickbacks, but also subpar military equipment being purchased and potentially used by the People’s Liberation Army,” Alex Payette, the CEO of Montreal-based geopolitics consultancy Cercius said.

Alfred Wu from Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy says corruption in the rocket force would have hit Mr Xi hard.

“He had very high hopes for the rocket force,” Prof Wu told the BBC. “If I have a very strong rocket force then, in the future, if I have a war with Taiwan, it can be absolutely instrumental.”

Does he think that reorganising this crucial part of the People’s Liberation Army could actually delay any move to take Taiwan by force?

“Of course, of course!”

Yet analysts observing the anti-corruption crackdown in China have identified a gaping flaw in Mr Xi’s approach in the form of a complete absence of any systemic changes which could tackle these problems in the long run.

“The Party, despite its efforts to develop its regulatory apparatus and discipline inspection rules, etc, has failed to curb corruption. Insofar as the Party remains the sole structure to access state resources, it cannot curb infrastructural corruption,” said Prof Payette.

Some other countries have introduced genuinely independent anti-corruption bodies, increased transparency, improved the rule of law and empowered an independent media to report on corruption. China has done none of those things.

Instead, the Communist Party polices itself. What’s left is a never-ending search for bad apples without a strategy to stop them going off in the first place.

In addition to this, according to Prof Wedeman, social attitudes also need to change drastically: “Reducing and controlling corruption requires not just changes in laws, regulations and oversight but deeper changes in the culture of officialdom and the socialisation of new generations for whom corruption and bending the rules are no longer standard and acceptable practices.”

Mr Xi’s sweeping anti-corruption drive has also potentially made some officials frightened to speak out, especially those close to him who are supposed to be giving him frank and fearless advice.

For many, this became apparent after three years of the Covid crisis, when the rest of the world had re-opened but China remained closed and heavily restricted even with the economy tanking.

“No doubt there are smart people around him,” adds Prof Ong, “But his insistence on zero-Covid until massive protests broke out suggests to me that those who understand economics don’t really have his ears”.

Other China watchers fear Mr Xi has surrounded himself with “yes men”.

“At this point, Xi is not looking for frank advice. He is looking for loyalty,” says Prof Payette.

“Xi seems to have fallen prey to being constantly praised by cadres who only seek to be promoted. Looking at early Party history, he should have known that Party cadres engage in flattery to avoid being purged and gain access to the upper echelons of the Party-state apparatus.”

A health worker wears protective gear as she gives a nucleic acid test to detect COVID-19 on a local resident at a mass testing site after new cases were found, on April 6, 2022

Getty Images

To an extent there is a belief that all officials are corrupt (whether they be the high-level “tigers” or the “flies” on the lower rungs) and that those who have been singled out are, for whatever reason, a threat to Mr Xi.

It is estimated that five million people have been punished in various ways during the crackdown, with some receiving warnings or fines with others getting heavy prison sentences or even the death penalty.

But rather than fostering a belief that the country is being well governed, many believe it is also trashing the Party’s reputation amongst the general public.

As Professor Wedeman put it, “I suspect that more than 10 years of the crackdown and a seemingly endless parade of ‘caged tigers’ has most likely deepened public cynicism.

“Quite simply, if you spend a decade waging a ‘life and death’ battle with tigers and – 10 years into the hunt – you are bagging as many as you bagged when you started hunting, it strongly suggests you are not hunting them to extinction and might not have even significantly reduced their numbers.”

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Commentary: Low interest rates of ‘money lock’ are a disservice to bank customers

THE CHOICE BETWEEN ANTI-SCAM SECURITY AND HIGHER INTEREST

DBS Multiplier, OCBC 360 and UOB One are what most of us in the personal finance space refer to as “high yield savings accounts”.

And as a customer of all three banks, I keep the majority of my funds in each of these three accounts for the simple reason that it pays me more interest than any other account in the same bank would.

The money lock feature makes me wonder why I need to choose between keeping my funds in my existing accounts and earning a higher interest rate, or moving it into a scammer-proof account and settling for a significantly lower rate.

I can’t say I’m happy with the latter, which is why I opted to lock my funds only in OCBC since it does not require me to give up any bonus interest that I’m already earning.

Interestingly, it seems that I’m not the only one with such reservations: Out of the 38,000 bank accounts that have reportedly activated money lock, OCBC customers make up 33,000 accounts.

Considering how Singapore is a prime target for scammers and that millions are being lost to scammers each month, it is disappointing that customers are being asked to choose between tighter security and higher interest rates.

Should we secure our funds but settle for a lower interest payout, or ignore the money lock feature entirely and continue collecting the usual interest on our existing high yield savings accounts?

The customer will have to decide, but it isn’t a pleasant decision.

Dawn Cher, also known as SG Budget Babe, runs a popular blog on personal finance and has a licence in real estate.Continue Reading