China-Russia relations: What is Xi Jinping prepared to pay for Putin’s war?

China's President Xi Jinping (R) and Russia's President Vladimir Putin attend the opening ceremony of the third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on October 18, 2023.Getty Images

Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, praised the “unprecedented” levels of ties between the two nations ahead of his state visit. Beijing is scheduled to welcome him.

China has emerged as a key supporter more than two decades after his conquest of Ukraine. Much to the chagrin of the US and the European Union, it has continued to trade with a heavily sanctioned Russia and has refused to condemn the conflict.

Nevertheless, it appears Mr Putin wants more. But will China pay the price?

A juggling work

Perhaps it is amazing that the Russian president chose China as his first international trip since taking the oath of office next week. Their relationship has reached its “highest level always,” he told Foreign state media during the two-day state visit. He mentioned his interest in Chinese martial art and beliefs, and claimed that members of his family are studying Mandarin.

” In the face of a hard global situation, our relations are also strengthening”, he said.

But while Mr Putin brags about their friendship, Mr Xi may had reason to worry.

The US has really made a number of new sanctions against Beijing and Hong Kong-based institutions and businesses that allegedly work with Moscow and aide in evading the country’s existing restrictions.

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Because China exports technology and parts that are necessary for war, Washington and Brussels think it’s not selling arms to Russia. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told the BBC that China was “helping energy the biggest danger” to Western security since the Cold War during his recent journey to Beijing.

For them, this has become a dark range. China insists that its position on Ukraine is natural, and that exports that are not used for business purposes besides war do not break the law.

However, the allegations followed Mr Xi on his trip to France next year, distracting from what was supposed to be a beauty unpleasant.

As the EU considers tariffs of its own, the Sino-skeptics and China eagles are also becoming louder, urging Mr. Xi to put more pressure on his Soviet rival.

And the truth is that China’s slow business cannot afford to experience this pressure from its trading partners. It needs those businesses overseas because of weak demand at house.

All of this leaves Mr Xi in an odd situation.

Finding the parameters

Weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine, the two frontrunners announced a” no- limits” collaboration to strengthen co- activity. This made feeling for the armies in their intellectual conflict with the West.

Moscow is also crucial to the changing of a US-led world order, according to Beijing. Trade between them is flourishing. Low Russian energy, including regular gas supplies via the Power of Siberia pipelines, have been a profit for China.

Russia's growing trade with China . in US$bn. Bar Chart showing Russia's growing trade with China from 2015 to 2023. .

But, as the conflict has dragged on, the ally has never seemed so “limitless”. For one, the word has almost disappeared from status press, a BBC research has found.

Zhao Tong, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, claims that Beijing is downplaying the unwavering character of its strategic relationship with Moscow.

” While China supports the goal of undermining American control, it does not agree with some of Russia’s methods, including the risk of using radioactive arms. China is acutely aware of the social costs associated with presenting itself as a supporter of Russia, and it is constantly developing strategies to improve its image of legitimacy on the international level.

On his recent visit to Europe, Mr Xi said the state is “neither the father of the issue, not a group to it or a student”. China keeps telling its own people about this.

Russians are still bleeding in pits, according to the statement.

However, the avowed neutrality does not imply support for Ukraine is easily discernible on China’s very censored media.

Foreign state media however justifies Russia’s war, calling it swift retribution by Moscow against US- backed Nato growth.

When Xu Weixin, a Taiwanese artist, first witnessed the first loud explosions to strike the Russian capital Kyiv on television in 2022, he felt compelled to record it.

” I do n’t have a weapon, but I have my pen”, he told the BBC from his studio in the US. His initial drawing, a photograph of the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, was a hit on social media.

Since the start of the war, I’ve been painting every time. I did n’t stop even for one day. When I got Covid, when I travelled worldwide, I also drew every day”.

Although his work has not been subject to any restrictions in China, the responses it received stunned him.

” It’s very different to my past knowledge”, he said. ” When I painted about fuel miners, all the responses I got were good. Perhaps my depictions of the social revolution received acclaim. I barely got any criticism”.

Xu Weixin drawing of the war

Courtesy Xu Weixin

But this time, he says, he saw a reaction. ” It’s okay, I merely blocked them”, he says. Some of my friends disliked me because they were against my opinions. But what am I capable of? I believe I’m doing a proper point. I want to become a role model for my daughter”.

It’s a sign of hope for Ukrainian like Vita Golod, who want to control Chinese mind. She was in Kyiv at the time the conflict broke out, and she made the decision to convert Russian media into Chinese using her Mandarin proficiency to share it on social media.

On a trip to Beijing, she told the BBC,” We wanted to let folks know the truth about this war because we were aware at the time there were no Russian media outlets or sources.” She is currently the vice president of the Ukrainian Association of Sinologists.

” It was hard physically to be honest, and it took a lot of time”, she says. A group of around 100 people translated formal announcement, President Zelensky’s remarks, and the stories of regular Ukrainians caught in the battle zone, she added.

She claims she hopes to arrange for Chinese scholars to travel to Ukraine so they can witness the destruction themselves and, eventually, put pressure on Russia. She is aware that this is an ambitious objective but wants to try. Her parents still reside in their hometown close to Bucha, and her brother is in the forefront.

Vita Golod

Joyce Liu/ BBC

” People in Ukraine are still suffering, they are still hiding in shelters, still bleeding in trenches. Ukraine needs sanctions on Russia, not beautiful words”.

So far, her work has not been censored, which implies some tolerance by the Chinese government.

Xi, the peace keeper

Other voices from Beijing are coming out, suggesting that some of the Chinese public’s attitudes toward this unrestrained relationship may be changing.

Feng Yujun, director of Fudan University’s Center for Russian and Central Asian Studies, recently stated in The Economist that Russia was certain to lose in Ukraine.

It’s a bold opinion in China.

But then, Mr Xi has also suggested he could be a peace keeper.

He phoned the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky in March of last year and emphasized that China has “always stood on the side of peace.” China also released a 12-point peace plan that calls for the end of nuclear weapons.

However, neither of Presidents Putin and Xi’s meeting this week is likely to change their minds significantly.

However, he will be calculating the risk of standing shoulder to shoulder with an international pariah who he once called both a comrade and his “dear friend” as the West becomes more impatient with their alliance and Mr. Xi’s hopes of playing peacekeeper have been so unsuccessful.

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Billion-dollar money laundering case: Sixth suspect jailed, forfeits largest sum yet of S0 million

VANG SHUIMING’S Infractions

On August 15, 2023, Vang was captured in a Good School Bungalow along Bishopsgate in Tanglin with cash totaling about S$ 2.42 million spread over four Singapore bank accounts.

Vang was unable to completely explain how the money came to him because it was believed to be gains of criminal conduct. Four of his claims eventually came to light regarding this.

Vang claimed that the money were the result of his investor gains from Xiamen Likanghang Trading and Xiamen Yetian Trading, two alleged e-commerce businesses.

After his imprisonment, he admitted they were not the cause, but claimed the money came from his product business in China, Xiamen Mingxin Promise.

Vang “maintained this account” through 18 claims to officers from Aug 15 to August 4, 2023, said the trial.

But on Sep 26, 2023, he admitted this was misleading. The money, according to him, was derived from “his gambling winnings and real estate investments in the Philippines” ( poker ).

Vang has no substantiated this say, the trial noted.

The bulk of Vang’s costs, 18 of them, involved submitting documents to several Singaporean banks that he had reason to believe to be fake.

When lenders questioned Vang about the money’s resources in his accounts, he used these documents.

In terms of the proceeding charge, Mr. Koh outlined how Vang had secured the sending of more than HK$ 29 million ( US$ 29 million ) from an Indonesian remittance agent to his Citibank account in April and May 2021.

Since Vang did not reside in Indonesia, Citibank inquired about the source of the funds and his connection with the payments broker.

Through one Wang Qiming, who was then his marriage manager, Vang provided a document apparently from the payment agent, stating that it received the funds as” second party flows” from the accused.

Additionally, according to the payments firm, it was able to receive cash from Vang for the equivalent of HK$ 8 million through an approved adviser in China named” Chen Ze Long.”

Vang provided a alleged bank statement from a China Merchant Bank account in his brand that showed payments from” Chen Ze Long” when Citibank’s compliance department requested additional documents to confirm these assertions.

However, Vang admitted that the speech was fake and that he did not have any China Merchant Bank accounts while being investigated after his imprisonment.

The other made records allegedly contained Xiamen Likanghang, Xiamen Yetian, and Xiamen Mingxin’s financial statements. These were sent to Bank Julius Baer & Co in July 2022 and UOB Kay Hian in June 2022.

According to Mr. Koh, the accused “represented to the banks that his success came from three Chinese companies, of which he was a shareholder, either directly or through his exterior asset managers.”

The accused had cause to believe that these economic remarks were fake, and they were.

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Asian central banks to continue gold purchasing | FinanceAsia

Annual demand of gold in 2023 fell by 5 %, compared to that in 2022, to 4, 448 tonnes, excluding over the counter ( OTC ) transactions. According to data from the World Gold Council ( WGC), central banks contributed to 1, 037 tonnes of the gold demand last year, which is the second-highest on record.

In the first fourth of 2024, world gold demand, including OTC, was off 3 % year- on- year to accomplish 1, 238 tonnes, marking the strongest second quarter since 2016. Excluding OTC, first quarter’s demand fell by 5 % to 1, 102 tonnes.

China, India and Singapore were among the Asian markets that added the most to their golden getting during the first quarter, with an increase of 27.06, 18.51 and 6.57 kilograms both. These include both key banks and financial transactions.

The story is also about the skyrocketing metal price, which rose by as much as$ 2,300 per ounce in April and remained at its all-time high despite a minor decline at the beginning of May.

One of the main causes of a rising interest rate in gold is Shaokai Fan, mind of central bankers at WGC, who quoted Shaokai Fan as saying, is because of the confidence in the US Fed’s future rate cuts.

” Gold has reached a new all-time higher thanks to a number of different things. Although interest rate reduction anticipation are most definitely raising interest, he said there is a solid real demand for silver underlying this.

Fan claimed that the central banks that have purchased “historic levels” of silver over the past two centuries have remained significant customers this time. For instance, the curiosity in China is related to the landscape of investors ‘ attempts to expand in response to weak performance in other asset classes.

Retail traders now have greater access to the business. Using distributed ledger technology ( DLT), HSBC in Hong Kong has created the first bank-issued tokenized gold. It is supported by vaults in London that are owned by HSBC.

Flee for surety

At the end of next year, market was first expecting nearly six 25- basis- point cuts within a 12- month timeframe. Christian Scherrmann, US economist at DWS, expects two rate cuts by the US Fed by the end of the year. Curbing inflation in the world’s largest economy has proved to be slower than expected, with the consumer price index ( CPI ) for March seeing a 0.4 % month- over- month core inflation increase.

Lower interest rates generally benefit the gold market because they lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, according to Fan. In a more volatile environment, the team anticipates inflows into gold exchange-traded funds ( ETFs ).

In Q1 2024, the global gold ETF holdings dropped by 114 tonnes, primarily as a result of an outflow from European and North American funds.

Asian gold ETFs, on contrast, witnessed an increase in assets under management by 16 % to$ 11 billion, mainly generated by participants in China, due to a weakening yuan and other domestic assets.

Meanwhile, global geopolitical risks are rising: tensions between China and the US are stillrounding, and global supply chains and general market sentiment are being affected by ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Gold, as a’ safe have n’, has therefore attracted wide interest.

The People’s Bank of China purchased more gold from the central bank in Asia in 2023, according to Fan. The PBOC currently has 2, 262.45 tonnes of gold reserves, followed by Japan and India, which have each over 800 tonnes.

The PBOC has added gold for the first 18 months in a row, but the price increase has slowed as the price rises have slowed.

The Reserve Bank of India’s ( RBI ) gold reserves, as of March this year, saw a 34 % increase compared to that in March 2019, reaching a total holding of 822 tonnes of gold. In addition, the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s ( MAS ) gold reserves increased by 2 tons in the first quarter.

The shift in geopolitical attitudes following the Russian’s attempted invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions placed on Russia’s foreign exchange reserves have resulted in a significant increase in central bank gold buying, according to Fan.

” We anticipate that central banks will continue to be gold’s main sources of income this year,” he continued. The US Fed’s rate cuts decisions, however, will still have the biggest immediate impact on the price of gold.

¬ Haymarket Media Limited. All rights reserved.

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Cases down, losses up: Hong Kong fights phone scams as amount swindled quadruples to US1 million

Hong Kong is experiencing a rise in financial loss as a result of mobile scams, despite the city’s increased prevalence of mainland Chinese learners falling victim.

In the first third of the year, 474 mobile con cases were reported, a 21 % decrease from the same period last year, according to local authorities. But the amount of money lost more than quadrupled to HK$ 789 million ( US$ 101 million ) from HK$ 195 million.

The majority of losses were caused by government official portrayal schemes. While there were 168 like circumstances, simply more than a third of the total score, they were responsible for at least HK$ 760 million of the cash swindled, local media reported.

According to Senior Inspector Lam Pui-hang of the Hong Kong Police Force’s knowledge meeting and con answer staff, more mainland Chinese students in the area are also falling for these schemes. &nbsp,

The South China Morning Post (SCMP ) reports that there were 39 cases involving mainland Chinese students in the first quarter of 2024, compared to 29 cases during the same time last year.

” BRAINWASHED” BY SCAMMERS

One of the recent cases involved an 18-year-old mainland Chinese victim. The first-year university student, identified as” Chen,” gave a video call to a police press conference about her experience.

Chen relates how she was contacted by phony immigration authorities who claimed to be her. &nbsp,

The caller had claimed that she had posted “undesirable advertisements” under her phone number registered in China and thus “violated Hong Kong laws” and would be “blacklisted”, HK01 reported. &nbsp,

Later, Chen was moved to a caller who claimed to be a police officer in mainland China and claimed to be involved in a money-laundering investigation. Additionally, the con artist gave her transfer information in statements from her real bank account.

Later, she received a copy of the arrest warrant and a freeze order. Due to the fact that Hong Kong officials and several banks were involved in the case, she was advised to keep any information a secret or she would be detained right away. &nbsp,

” At that moment I was extremely agitated”, Chen said in Mandarin. &nbsp,

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Putin to visit Beijing, meet Xi this week

” NO LIMITS” Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told AFP:” The Russians want China to do more to support it. China is reluctant to do that because it does n’t want to undermine its relationship with the West,” Gabuev, director, said. Since Beijing’s invading Ukraine, commerceContinue Reading

Unleashed bank deposits misused in Chinese economy – Asia Times

Chinese banks deposits worth trillions of yen were necessary last month to keep the banking system, but the money has not yet been effectively used in the real market. &nbsp, &nbsp,

After officials mandated that Chinese banks stop their long-term process of offering extra attention to depositors, they lost deposits totaling 3.92 trillion yuan ( US$ 542 billion ) in the second month of April 2024. &nbsp,

New renminbi deposits plummeted 51 % to 7.32 trillion yuan in the first four months of 2024 from 14.93 trillion yuan in the same period of last year, the People’s Bank of China ( PBoC ) said on May 11.

At the same time, new yen money fell by 10 % to 10.19 trillion yuan from 11.32 trillion yuan for the same time.

Some research studies made comments on numbers that were worse-than-expected, but they were removed from social media. &nbsp,

According to Bloomberg, economists were unable to view at least seven analysis reports from Chinese securities companies posted on Twitter on Monday. According to the statement, complaints about unknown violations of public account laws were made about the social media platform. &nbsp,

According to the review, the incident highlighted China’s growing difficulty in getting accurate financial information. &nbsp,

Where’s the income?

According to the PBoC’s standard, island Chinese banks may offer interest no higher than 1.45 % on one- time deposits. &nbsp,

According to some economists, people were strongly encouraged to withdraw their deposits from banks in order to either purchase wealth management products with an average yield of 4 % or to refinance mortgage loans to save a 4.9 % cost. &nbsp,

The yuan deposit drop in April was attributed to Chinese institutions ‘ new policy of not charging savers any additional interest, according to Ming Ming, chief economist at CITIC Securities. He claimed that numerous individuals purchased money management goods with their money.

He claimed that as new payments typically grow slower or drop in April and July as Chinese banks attempt to meet their goals in March and June, seasonal factors also contributed to the decline. &nbsp,

Foreign banks have been fighting for deposits for the past two years as PBoC has continued to lower loan rates to boost the economy. &nbsp,

Banks lured lenders with “manual attention subsidies”. In response to the disruption of their services caused by computer errors, banks were actually allowed to pay their clients more interest as recompense. &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp,

A PBoC-led task force established in 2013 called the Self-Disciplinary Method for the Costs of Market-Oriented Interest Rates to order Taiwanese businesses to formally end this process by the end of April. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Even if they had already promised their clients, all banks may stop adding more attention to the PBoC standard.

It claimed that the process lacked foolish competition between banks, stifled the flow of money, and failed to foster a suitable interest rate environment to support real economic growth. &nbsp,

Bad credit demand

This past Saturday, the PBoC said that China’s aggregate financing to the real economy ( AFRE ) or total social financing, one of the key indicators of China’s credit demand, was 12.73 trillion yuan in the first four months of this year, down 3.04 trillion yuan from the same period of last year.

The AFRE was 12.93 trillion yuan in the first fourth. This indicates the second decline in the value of 200 billion renminbi since 2005, which is significant. &nbsp,

On Monday, the upstream yen fell to 7.2347 per US dollar, down 101 foundation points from last Friday and the lowest level in two weeks, as a result of the bad credit information. &nbsp,

Asia Times discovered that China’s AFRE figures in April, which appear to be very poor before annual adjustment, fall one common mistake below the linear pattern regression line using the US Census algorithm from the Eviews econometrics platform. In short, they are on the poor side but within normal parameters. And they are most likely the result of subpar financing to the real estate industry.

According to a study released by Minsheng Securities, the “manual attention subsidies” process has not yet been able to stimulate the economy as expected. If the new easement of property laws starts to show signs of effects, China’s AFRE will finally regain momentum for growth. &nbsp, &nbsp,

A hundred second-tier cities have made announcements to allocate their home purchase restrictions after May 9 with the exception of Hangzhou, Xian, and Fosan. These presentations increased property values.

Shares of Shimao Group Holdings have gained 133 % to close at HK$ 1.05 ( 13.4 US cents ) on Monday from last May 8. The value of China Aoyuan stock increased to 26 HK CNYs.

Read more: Hong Kong exports rise despite the Sino-US trade war

&nbsp, Follow Jeff Pao on X: &nbsp, @jeffpao3

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