Trump’s tariff onslaught headed for self-defeating recession – Asia Times

It takes a truly incredible impact to drive the global market into crisis. Did Donald Trump’s bilateral tax strategy simply shove the earth into one?

Eastern policymakers can’t help but fear the worst as the area bears the overwhelming weight of the US president’s worldwide revenge tour.

Liberation Day? More like” Obliteration Day”, quips Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro Research, as about US$ 2.5 trillion was erased from the S&amp, P 500 Index on Thursday ( April 3 ) alone. Now, economists at JPMorgan worry a Trump downturn is likely.

” This affect alone could get the business perilously close to slipping into crisis”, says JPMorgan analyst Michael Feroli. ” And this is before accounting for the more visits to total imports and to purchase spending”.

Feroli thinks Trump’s tariffs will add as much as 1.5 % to already rising prices this year, using the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE ) index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The taxes also did bang individual wages and consumer investing in the US, he predicts.

Any large dispositions in the US would resonate Asia’s method almost instantaneously. But Trump’s about straight focus on Asia is because self-defeating as it is harmful.

Trump’s concerns are very much on screen. China, for example, now faces a 54 % tax on all supplies to the US. On April 2, Trump slapped an additional 34 % tariff on top of an earlier 20 %. Vietnam, however, faces a 46 % price.

Vietnam’s place in the line of flames stems from the mistakes of the Trump 1.0 time. Most of the work that Trump thought had tilt from China to the US went to Vietnam otherwise. It was the China solution of choice for firms from American Eagle to Deckers to Hasbro to Nike to Wayfair.

Trinh Nguyen, top analyst at Natixis, speaks for many when she calls the income “devastating for Vietnam”. As such, Trump may have just raised the prices of clothing, furniture and toys manufacturers everyday. Cost hikes for customers around the globe are all but certain.

Like some developing Asian economies, Vietnam is far more probable to communicate than fight. ” Vietnam is extremely unlikely to observe Canada or Europe in applying mutual taxes. At present, it imports to some US products to establish any real pain”, says Craig Martin, president of Dynam Capital.

Japan and South Korea got off easier with tariffs of 24 % and 25 %, respectively. But without moves by Tokyo and Seoul to placate Trump, it’s unclear how Asia’s No 2 and No. 4 economies avoid bigger levies.

The question now is whether Trump’s truly epic shock causes a catastrophic global downturn. There have been two such events since the 1990s: the 2008-09 global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. Though the 1997 Asian financial crisis came close, it didn’t send the West into a tailspin.

This Trump 2.0 assault on the global trading system could indeed be the third such economic earthquake in 17 years – and an inflection point for the global financial system.

If these actions are “implemented, the effective US tariff rate would be higher than the Smoot-Hawley Act rate”, says Priyanka Kishore, economist and founder of consultancy Asia Decoded. ” The estimates range between 26 %-29 % compared to around 20 % in the 1930s”.

This, she notes,” challenges our view of resilient US growth this year. While we expected the Trump administration to act swiftly on tariffs, the scale and scope have exceeded our expectations. With heightened policy uncertainty and rising downside risks to investments, we now anticipate US growth to falter in the coming months”.

Part of that problem – and the disorientation – is that the logic behind it is completely nonsensical.

” If a 9th grader in high school presented this tariff chart to a teacher in a basic economics class, the teacher would laugh and say sit down and work on the assignment”, says Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities.

Jeffries analyst W Brad Bechtel adds that “our textbooks tell us that tariffs are inflationary if the currency market does not adjust to offset. The dollar dropping 2 % amid the addition of tariffs around the world on US imported goods is very inflationary“.

Kevin Thozet, an investment committee member at Carmignac, notes that” this is the US economy flirting with recession this year and inflation reaccelerating. And this is before we get the next wave of sectoral tariffs, which Trump mentioned again on chips, pharmaceuticals, copper, timber and shipping services”.

Analysts are counting the ways that Trump’s tariffs will backfire. In 2024, the US exported$ 2.1 trillion in goods and$ 1.1 trillion in services.

If his taxes on imports send other top economies into recession or even crisis, the fallout for US growth could be devastating. And that’s even before America’s biggest trading partners hit back with retaliatory tariffs.

” This is a game-changer for the global economy”, says Fitch Ratings economist Olu Sonola. ” Many countries will likely end up in a recession”.

Japan, for example, may seem to have gotten off easy relative to China. But the 25 % tax Trump slapped on all imports of automobiles and car parts already has economists upping the odds of Japanese stagflation.

It’s not just Japan facing a scenario where growth flatlines and inflation accelerates, though. Stagflation scenarios now stalk the US as well.

” An increasing probability of stagflation risk in the US may see further narrowing of the two-year sovereign yield premium spread between US Treasuries and Japanese government bonds”, says Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at brokerage OANDA.

Wong adds that recent policy shifts” suggest a rising risk of stagflation in the US economy due to uncertainties in growth prospects and the cost of living, which are exacerbated by the current US White House’s erratic and aggressive trade tariff policy”.

China, though, is grappling with deflationary pressures. Trump turning the screws tighter on China could send mainland prices even lower.

The latest US tariffs “limit China’s ability to rely on stimulus and raise long-term export costs”, says Lauren Gloudeman, an analyst at Eurasia Group. ” The usual playbook of domestic stimulus will be constrained. More spending will risk inflating local government debt while deeper rate cuts could hurt banks. Beijing will opt for central government-led infrastructure investment”.

Beijing has been preparing exporters through low-cost financing and tax rebates. ” But”, Gloudeman says,” the removal of the de minimis rule will deal a heavy blow to employment, as it affects the labor-intensive segment of the export sector”.

Though China’s share of global trade is rising, headwinds bearing down on US households raise question marks on the$ 3.3 trillion the US imported last year. If US imports disappear under the weight of Trump’s tariffs, so would a key driver of global growth. That’s the last thing export-dependent economies from China to Germany want.

One concern is the so-called “wealth effect” kicking into reverse. Just as rising stocks make average households more confident, plunging shares often slam sentiment. UBS Group analyst Bhanu Baweja thinks the S&amp, P 500, which is now at 5, 396, could be headed even lower.

” We see 5, 300 as the near-term target for the S&amp, P 500, but if tariff uncertainty persists or negotiations with trading partners don’t go well, risks of downside through 5, 000 become real”, Baweja says. ” The probability of US stocks entering a bear market is going higher”.

The huge drop in shares of financial companies is ringing alarm bells of their own. They include Citibank ( down 12 % on Thursday alone ), Bank of America (-11 % ), Morgan Stanley (-9.5 % ) and JPMorgan (-7 % ).

” Although financials don’t have direct exposure to tariffs, the uncertainty and ensuing market volatility around the indirect impact of broad-based tariff increases on the economy and activity levels is likely to dominate bank stocks in the near term”, says Jim Mitchell, an analyst at Seaport Research Partners.

The violent stock selloff that shook the region on Thursday dramatized Asia’s place in Trump’s trade destruction. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 Stock Index tumbled more than 4 % at one point yesterday, Korea’s Kospi index dropped 2.7 %.

Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi called the new levies “extremely regrettable”, warning they’re likely to have a” significant impact on the economic relationship between the US and Japan”.

Wishful thinking, perhaps, but Hayashi said Tokyo would “take all necessary measures” to ensure its economy isn’t hobbled by such tariffs.

Korea’s acting President Han Duck-soo called on the government to “exert all its capabilities to overcome the trade crisis” at an emergency meeting on Thursday, calling the related uncertainty “extremely serious”.

China’s Communist Party slammed Trump’s move as a “typical unilateral bullying practice” and said it would “resolutely take countermeasures to safeguard its own rights and interests”.

Beijing “urges the United States to immediately cancel its unilateral tariff measures and properly resolve differences with its trading partners through equal dialogue”, the Commerce Ministry said in a statement.

” As we had worried, Asian economies have been hit hard by the new tariff announcements”, said Decoded’s Kishore. Outside of China and Vietnam, Trump’s tariffs hit Taiwan ( 32 % ), Thailand ( 36 % ) and Indonesia ( 32 % ). Malaysia’s 24 % was in line with Japan and Korea, as was India at 26 %. The Philippines ( 17 % ), Singapore ( 10 % ) and Australia ( 10 % ) fared slightly better.

” Whatever be the outcome, the increased economic uncertainty is likely to take a toll on sentiments and spending in the foreseeable future”, Kishore says.

” We will be following up with a more detailed note on the channels through which the tariff shock will likely flow through Asian economies and to what degree. Several indirect and spillover impacts need to be considered”.

Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers worries Trump’s latest tariff hikes could trigger an oil crisis-like shock to the globe’s biggest economy.

” This is the kind of thing you discuss in the way we would usually discuss an oil-price spike or earthquake or a drought, as a supply shock”, Summers tells Bloomberg. ” The question is mostly how much damage is going to be done”.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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Commentary: As Trump’s tariffs roil markets, can Singapore seize the moment?

SMALL-CAP STRENGTH

The three big businesses in Singapore- DBS, OCBC, and UOB- dominate the market, accounting for about 25 per share of daily trading volume. Their powerful functionality has led to a substantial boost in their combined weight in the Straits Times Index (STI), from 40 per cent in 2019 to 54 per share now.

But, over 80 per share of the listed businesses on the SGX have a market capitalisation of under US$ 1 billion, positioning the trade as a small-cap business. This section, especially small and mid-cap companies, remains undervalued despite being well-run, prosperous, and offering attractive income. Revitalising this industry sector may provide much-needed cash and power to the SGX.

Rather than forcing fund managers to invest in individual stocks, a more effective strategy could be to create indices and exchange-traded funds ( ETFs ) based on small and mid-cap companies- perhaps an SGX50, SGX100, and SGX200.

These funds would make it easier for institutional investors, including home offices, to get exposure to smaller- and mid-caps, therefore enhancing cash. Such a move could drastically affect the buying dynamics of the local marketplace by bringing administrative wealth into formerly neglected parts.

While the EMRG’s S$ 5 billion action appears to be a step in the right direction, some business watchers argue that more could be done to support the SGX. For example, it is worth considering if government-backed funds like the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation ( GIC ) should invest in SGX-listed stocks.

If the SGX succeeds in attracting local companies to record here, it makes little sense if the GIC does not participate in them, especially when it does so on other markets like Hong Kong. Such an technique may further enhance the attractiveness of the SGX as a list destination.

The issue of blacklisting, which has been a growing problem with around 20 firms delisting last year and five so far this year, may also be alleviated if the S$ 5 billion program introduces enough liquidity into the business. In addition, the tax incentives already announced will serve as an attractive catalyst for companies to consider the Singapore market for their IPOs.

However, there is room for further improvement. One potential area is investor education. Retail investors, particularly the younger demographic, tend to gravitate towards overseas markets and more volatile assets like cryptocurrencies. Given that the current SGX retail base is largely aged 55 and above, efforts to engage younger investors could help diversify the investor base and encourage more participation in the local market.

Analyst coverage of mid- and small-cap stocks could also be enhanced. Analysts should be encouraged to identify and promote undervalued stocks with growth potential, rather than focusing primarily on large-cap companies. Brokers, too, should be more willing to engage with clients and promote growth and value stocks, aligning with investors ‘ risk appetites.

Lastly, attracting large, well-known companies to list on the SGX, such as PSA, Changi Airport, and NTUC, could serve as a powerful signal of the exchange’s competitiveness. Waiving or reducing some transaction fees and taxes could further reduce costs and make the SGX one of the most attractive trading platforms in Asia.

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US and its allies are undergoing a digital Pearl Harbor attack – Asia Times

Although the reports may look sporadic and empirical, they add up to a disturbing pattern. Foreign state-affiliated thieves cracked Microsoft’s internet sky structure and penetrated the message systems of the US sections of Commerce, Treasury and State. In Guam, a crucial command and control center for the Navy’s Seventh Fleet, another thieves hacked into the US government’s communications system.

In what is being referred to as one of the worst knowledge agreements in American history, the US government announced that Salt Typhoon, an affiliate of the Chinese government, used threats in Cisco devices to elude the methods of nine US communications firms, including AT&amp, T, and Verizon.

According to the New York Times,” No one at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency ( CISA ) seems able to say what has happened to the investigation into one of the most successful penetrations of American networks, or who is now responsible for figuring out why American telecommunications firms were caught unawares, for more than a year, by China’s Ministry of State Security”.

The government is the equivalent of the US Central Intelligence Agency in China. Candidates ‘ devices in the US election of 2024 were likewise targeted by Chinese spies. And the government has announced that the Chinese have placed ransomware in America’s essential equipment that apparently had been activated at the time of Beijing’s finding.

According to CrowdStrike’s 2025 Global Threat Report, China’s cyber-espionage activity increased by 150 percent overall in 2024.

Russians have deeply penetrated as well. A thriving ransomware attack system is now hitting not just corporate targets but also schools, churches, hospitals and even blood banks.

Microsoft’s threat intelligence team recently discovered that a Russian attack group known as BadPilot has breached systems in numerous English-speaking nations around the world. The group’s objectives included “energy, oil and gas, telecommunications, shipping, arms manufacturing” and “international governments.”

In short, the Chinese and the Russians have staged a devastating Pearl Harbor-scale attack on America’s critical infrastructure and Information Technology systems. Because US tech companies built a lot of their systems, the same pattern is occurring for America’s traditional allies. Threatened data capture by adversaries is now a constant threat.

At least some planning in the West’s military, diplomatic and trade realms could be monitored and anticipated. These penetrations, which are supported by artificial intelligence, also aid in the spread of misinformation and disinformation throughout the social media world in what is now known as cognitive warfare. That offends all democracies, in my opinion.

If all this had happened at once, Americans might have been galvanized to respond, as they did in reaction to the original Pearl Harbor attack, the launching of Sputnik, and the terror attacks of September 11, 2001. However, America’s adversaries have carefully avoided any action that crosses the line of a declared war because they have studied US history.

In The Art of War, Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu wrote,” Winner is the supreme art of war without fighting.”

Far from responding forcefully as President Franklin D. Roosevelt did in 1941, the current Trump Administration seems to be enabling foreign adversaries by making a disastrous series of mistakes:

  • cutting CISA’s ranks,
  • appointing a politically connected attorney with no prior experience to serve as the White House’s cyber czar
  • exposing entire databases of sensitive data on the website of the Department of Government Efficiency and ( most spectacularly )
  • using the messaging app Signal to engage in a secret conversation about military action against Yemeni rebels.

In summary, the US’s response to the penetration of China and Russia has been a dramatic failure, both from the private and public sectors. The burning question is: Why have leaders in both sectors declined to respond to an obvious crisis?

One solution is that the United States and other democracies have not yet been able to find ways to unite the public and private sectors to find solutions as pluralistic societies. A fear of acting out of fear is also present.

Private sector boards of directors and CEO’s have not truly addressed the fundamental risk posture and vulnerability of their systems. Instead, they have developed elaborate layers of legal defense.

When a business experiences a breach, it mobilizes attorneys, cyber security experts, and insurance firms. The goal is to prove that the company followed “best practices” and was” commercially reasonable in compliance” with generally accepted practices, perhaps including changes in the responsibilities of the Chief Information Security Officer.

This cybersecurity checklist approach simply isn’t effective. Paying a well-known company to report on risk is a PR stunt, not real cybersecurity. Boards and their managements issue bland press releases after a hack, reciting such homilies as” We detect no activity” or” No material loss of personal identifying data has been recognized”.

That kind of claim is not equivalent to saying they have patched up and protected their systems after the intrusion. It appears to be a kind of Faustian bargain: businesses run their networks despite knowing that Russians or Chinese people may be hiding there to avoid costs and meet their quarterly earnings goals. It is a systemic failure.

If these uncomfortable realities were to be acknowledged, major technology companies that have provided IT and telecommunications goods and services to their customers around the world would also be humbled. After all, Big Tech in America promised to safeguard customers ‘ data in their wildly convoluted security systems, including data centers and cloud computing.

But the Chinese have become masters of exploiting” cross-vendor” open source and legacy software vulnerabilities in cloud systems. That means that if they can infer the weaknesses in the defenses of one client company, they could create a beachhead from which to discover the same weaknesses in the defenses of other businesses.

Because of a decentralized, profit-driven private sector, the US government, like other countries, cannot address the issues involving critical infrastructure.

Western governments are simply not organized to manage threats in the digital era because responsibility is too fragmented and the playing field too vast.

To successfully address these issues, coalition-building would be necessary, but today’s America operates in silos and occasionally places more of its weight on Russian allies as opposed to US institutions. Take the Intelligence Community ( IC ), which consists of 18 distinct entities.

The failure of the IC to share information was a key explanation for why the 9/11 terrorist attacks happened. The same patterns are present in today’s play. Too frequently, threats are concealed and not shared.

Moreover, the smorgasbord of federal, state and local law enforcement agencies does not always share threat information or understand the meaning of the information that is shared.

Regulations from various federal agencies for various industries regarding what must be reported and what must be done following a breach are a complete jumble, adding to this dysfunctionality.

Even the Pentagon, which has market power because it contracts to buy goods and services from 300, 000 businesses in the Defense Industrial Base, has been unable to impose auditing of these companies’ IT systems, even by third parties.

The implementation of the Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification program is a positive step, but the Chinese already have stolen massive amounts of technology, including the designs for American aircraft carriers, and seem certain to continue doing so.

Americans themselves bear some of the brunt of the blame. One of the most creative and potent weapons in the history of undeclared war, TikTok, is used by 170 million people in America.

Before it was revealed that its website collects American data that TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, can view, it was widely known, with few if any regulatory hurdles. Other data-collecting Chinese algorithms like DeepSeek were enthusiastically embraced by the public.

Chinese bargain-hunting apps Shein and Temu are algorithms that gather data about their users.

When this information is layered upon the major hacks that have taken place in credit rating ( Equifax ), hotels ( Marriott’s Starwood division ), health care ( Anthem ) and detailed information about federal employees ( the Office of Personnel Management ), the Chinese and Russians are able to assemble detailed personal portraits of targeted individuals.

There might be other ways to get out of this mess. There are many ideas that merit evaluation, including the creation of a federal department of digital services or a high-level task force made up of representatives from both major corporations and government organizations to collaborate on resources and expertise. But time is limited. The best place to start is to acknowledge the magnitude of what has gone wrong and to find the courage to act.

William J. Holstein co-author of Battlefield Cyber: How China and Russia Are Undermining Our Democracy and National Security, has been following US-China relations ever since being an award-winning correspondent for United Press International in Hong Kong and Beijing from 1979 to 1982.

Assured Enterprises, Inc., a cybersecurity company in Greater Washington, DC, is led by Stephen M. Soble as chairman and CEO. He has a wealth of business and commercial experience in China as well as as an international affairs advisor.

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Myanmar earthquake: BBC finds huge devastation and little help for survivors in Mandalay

eight days ago
Yogita Limaye

Mandalay, Myanmar

BBC Two people walk past a large white building that is partially collapsed and leaning dangerously to one side in MandalayBBC

Warning: This post contains information and photographs that might bother some viewers.

Driving into Mandalay, the huge size of the damage from previous Friday’s disaster revealed itself bit by bit.

At least one developing had entirely collapsed, turning into a pile of rubble in almost every city we crossed, especially in the northern and central areas of the city. Some roads had numerous institutions that had collapsed.

Almost every building we saw had holes running through at least one of its walls, illegal to move into. Sufferers are being treated out at the major area hospital.

After the earthquake, Myanmar’s military government has stated it won’t allow foreign reporters to enter the country, so we went underground. We had to work properly, because the nation is riddled with operatives and secret officers who detective on their own people for the ruling military dictatorship.

In the face of this enormous crisis, we witnessed a persons who had very little assistance coming their way.

Nan Sin Hein, 41, who has been waiting on the street opposite a fell five-storey tower, day and night, said,” I have hope that he’s dead, even if it’s a little chance.

Her 21 year-old-son Sai Han Ha is a building contractor, renovating the interior of the tower, which used to be a resort and was being turned into an business area.

A lady stands in the street looking directly at the camera and in the background is a white building leaning dangerously to one side

There is a chance that he’ll succeed if they can rescue him now, she says.

When the 7 7 magnitude quake struck, the middle of the tower sank into the earth, its bottom drifting at an angle over the city, looking like it could tip over at any moment.

Four different workers, including Sai Han Ha, were trapped in.

When we arrived, recovery work at the tower had not even begun, and there was no indication that they would begin right away. There just isn’t much help available on the ground- and the explanation for that is the political position in the country.

Myanmar was tense prior to the disaster, locked up in a civil war that left at least 3 people homeless. 5 million individuals. Its government has continued procedures against military rebel groups despite the catastrophe.

This implies that safety forces are also underpowered to throw their whole weight behind rescue and relief operations. We didn’t see them in large amounts in Mandalay, aside from in some key areas.

The military junta has put out a unique appeal for international help, but its uneasy relations with several international countries, including the UK and the US, has meant that while these countries have pledged aid, help in the form of manpower on the ground is now only from countries like India, China and Russia, among a dozen others.

And so far, those rescue efforts appear to have been concentrated on landmarks like the Sky Villa condominium complex, where scores of people were feared trapped, and the U Hla Thein Buddhist Academy, where scores of monks were feared to be stranded when the earthquake struck.

The structure collapsed like a “pancake,” according to Neeraj Singh, who is in charge of the Indian disaster response team at the Buddhist academy. It was layer on layer, not the other.

” It’s the most difficult collapse pattern and the chances of finding survivors are very low. But we’re still optimistic and making our best efforts, he told the BBC.

Rescuers carrying a body in a black body bag on a stretcher

Rescuers work under a hot sun setting of nearly 40C using metal drills and cutters to cut concrete into smaller pieces. It’s slow and extremely demanding work. When a crane lifts up the concrete pieces, the smell of decaying bodies, which is already quite strong, overwhelms.

Although the rescuers identify four to five bodies, the first one still needs to be pulled out in a few hours.

Sitting on mats under a makeshift tent in the compound of the academy are families of the students. Their faces are worn out and despondent. When they learn a body has been recovered, they crowd around the ambulance it is placed in.

A hand is seen holding a mobile phone picture of a smiling young monk carrying a pot and some bags

Others gather around a rescuer who shows them a photo of the body on his mobile phone.

As the families examine whether the deceased person is a loved one, jargon-free moments pass.

However, it is impossible to accomplish the task because the body is so disfigured. It is sent to a morgue where forensic tests will have to be conducted to confirm the identity.

The father of 29-year-old U Thuzana is one of the families. He has no hope that his son will live. ” Knowing my son ended up like this, I’m inconsolable, I’m filled with grief,” U Hla Aung said, his face crumpling into a sob.

The wall of a pagoda is destroyed showing inside the building with rubble all over the outside steps

We were unable to enter one of Mandalay’s historical sites to see the extent of the damage, including the Mandalay Palace and the Maha Muni Pagoda, which have also sustained significant damage.

Due to the oppressive environment created by the military junta, where people frequently feared speaking to journalists, making it difficult to get to all collapse sites, victims, and their families, was not easy.

Close to the pagoda, we saw Buddhist funeral rituals being held on the street outside a destroyed house. Both in their 60s, U Hla Aung Khaing and his wife Daw Mamarhtay resided there.

I shared a home with them, but I was absent when the earthquake struck. That’s why I survived. My parents are both gone in a single instant, their son said to us.

A group of people sit on the ground cross-legged facing several monks sat in chairs who address them - all in front of a partially collapsed building

Their bodies were recovered by locals who used rudimentary equipment rather than by trained rescuers. It took two days to pull out the couple, who were found with their arms around each other.

The military government of Myanmar claims 2,886 people have died so far, but the authorities are still unable to reach all of the collapse sites, making that figure highly unlikely to be accurate. We might never learn what the actual death toll was from the earthquake.

A middle-aged couple are sign dressed in formal clothing, arm in arm, in a large framed picture

Parks and open spaces in Mandalay have turned into makeshift camps, as have the banks of the moat that runs around the palace. As the evening came to an end, residents of the city sat outside their homes, laying out mattresses and mats.

Malaga is a city that, for good reason, lives in a world of terror. Nearly every night since Friday there have been big aftershocks. In the middle of the night, we woke up to an aftershock of magnitude 5.

However, tens of thousands of people are sleeping outside because they don’t have a place to go back.

” I don’t know what to think anymore. When I consider the earthquake’s impact, my heart still trembles when I consider that time. Daw Khin Saw Myint, 72, was with her young granddaughter by her side as she waited in a line for water. ” We ran out, but my house has vanished. I’m living under a tree. See what you see. “”

She works as a washerwoman and says her son suffers from a disability which doesn’t allow him to work.

Where will I presently reside? I’m having a lot of trouble. I’m living next to a rubbish dump. I received some clothing and rice from some people. These clothes we are wearing caused us to leave.

” We don’t have anyone to rescue us. She pleaded with “please help us,” and she cried as she did so.

No one has distributed food yet, a second elderly woman chimes in, tears streaming in her eyes. So we haven’t eaten. “”

An elderly woman stands with her hands on the shoulders of a young girl near some makeshift tents

The majority of the vehicles we saw approaching to distribute supplies were small vans carrying only small amounts of stock, either as donations from individuals or small local businesses. It’s nowhere near enough for the number of people in need, leading to a scramble to grab whatever relief is available.

In an already challenging situation, rows and rows of beds are laid out in the hospital compound for patients because parts of Mandalay’s main hospital are also damaged.

Shwe Gy Thun Phyo, 14, has bloodshot eyes and suffered a brain injury. She’s conscious but unresponsive. Her father makes every effort to give her the best possible comfort.

Families are stepping in as needed because there were so few doctors and nurses nearby to handle the rising demand for care.

Zar Zar has a distended belly because of a serious abdominal injury. Her daughter fan her while holding her up while holding her in order to relieve her from the heat.

We had to avoid being apprehended by the police or the military so we decided not to spend a lot of time in the hospital.

In a makeshift hospital, two women sit on a bed together - one sat behind the other fanning her while surrounded by a number of other women

As the window to find survivors of the earthquake narrows, increasingly those being brought into the hospital are the dead.

Nan Sin Hein, who is waiting outside the collapsed building where her son was trapped, initially appeared skeptical, but now appears to be getting ready for what appears to be the most likely scenario.

” I’m heartbroken. My son loved me and his little sisters. He struggled to give us a fight, she claims.

Even if my son is dead, I am just hoping to see his face. I want to see his body. They must do everything in their power to locate his body, I want them to. “”

Map shows epicentre of earthquake

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UOB joins OCBC in cutting interest rates for savings accounts from May 1

SINGAPORE: United Overseas Bank ( UOB ) will be cutting the interest rates for its flagship savings account from May 1 to “align with long-term interest rate environment expectations”.

The move comes hot on the heels of a similar shift announced by OCBC next year.

Flagship saving accounts offered by banks usually provide tiered interest rates that go up as customers grow their account balance, invest a minimum on limited cards and do other transactions with the lender such as taking up a cover product.

In later 2022, the bankers made violent excursions to the interest rates offered to savings in the midst of a rising rate environment.

However, that changed as objectives built up for central banks to begin cutting costs, with UOB making the first move to cut interest rates last May.

With the latest move, the tiered interest rates for UOB One account holders with balances of up to S$ 150, 000, credit their salary to the bank and meet a minimum spend of S$ 500 a month on an eligible bank card will range from 2.3 per cent to 5.3 per cent.

This translates to a maximum effective interest rate of 3.3 per cent, based on a notice posted on its website on Tuesday ( Apr 1 ).

These rates are down from the current range of 3 per cent to 6 per cent, and a maximum effective interest rate of 4 per cent for the same qualifying conditions.

A downward revision in interest rates is also in store for OCBC’s 360 account holders from May 1.

In an email to customers on Mar 24, OCBC noted that “interest rates have been lower this past year” so it is making the changes to be “in line with prevailing market conditions”.

The change means that customers will earn a maximum effective interest rate of 6.3 per cent a year on the first S$ 100, 000 in their account when they credit their salary, save, spend, as well as take up investment and insurance products with the bank.

This is down from the current 7.65 per cent.

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How China plans to bounce back from more Trump tariffs – Asia Times

China’s president Xi Jinping just held a meeting with 40 leaders of foreign firms, including BMW and AstraZeneca.

In contrast to Donald Trump’s language, Xi told the top-level managers that globalisation was never going away. Xi is attempting to boost international investment in China, which has dropped in the last few decades, and establish new connections that will compensate Trump’s levies on some Chinese products.

In the March 28 meet, Xi “vowed to boost business entry” and assured business leaders that “lines of conversation” between them and the Chinese government are available.

Xi is hoping to build on an anti-Trump jump and encourage firms to again Beijing as some evidence emerged that China’s economy was doing a much better than expected in first 2025.

Industrial production went up by 5.9 % in January and February. Credit growth, which measures the amount of loans banks give out, also appears to be picking up, suggesting that businesses might be growing in China.

Retail sales, which are a major economic marker indicating consumer spending, has risen by up to 4 % in January and February this year, compared to last year.

Beijing is also willing to create further stimulus packages to sustain China’s economic growth, which might lift consumer confidence further.

But this is hampered by a real estate crisis that began in 2021. What followed was an already high local government debt that was exacerbated by the property crisis, and high youth unemployment that has existed since 2023.

The big question then is what are the factors that could lead to a more buoyant outlook in China’s economic fortunes?

Policy resolve

According to a Bloomberg report, China has traditionally relied on cheap loans and subsidies to boost economic sectors in infrastructure, manufacturing, and the property market. However, those times are over.

The problem is China has produced more goods to sell than people are willing to buy. In the past, Beijing relied on the West to purchase its products, but with rising protectionism and looming tariffs stemming from a Donald Trump-led US, US consumption of Chinese goods is likely to fall.

And if another key market in the form of the EU were to take a cue from Trump’s economic playbook and impose more tariffs on China, then Chinese hope for sales in the west for economic growth may not materialise.

Beijing’s surest way of boosting sales is through domestic consumption. This isn’t easy as China’s domestic spending remains relatively low at 40 % of the country’s GDP, which is about 20 % lower than the global average. And if Beijing wants cautious consumers to spend amid a relatively weak economic outlook, it needs to do more to raise consumer confidence.

Although China did introduce a stimulus package in September 2024, it has resolved to do more. In an early March 2025 speech in the Chinese parliament, Chinese Premier Li Qiang promised a” special action plan” to vigorously raise domestic consumption for 2025.

Several weeks later Li reiterated in the China Development Forum that Beijing would roll out more stimulus packages when the need arose.

These assurances are likely to have helped improve market sentiment, and the fact that China’s GDP growth target was also set at an ambitious level of around 5 %, might signal Beijing’s confidence and resolve that the economy will improve.

China’s AI revolution

In the past, China was considered a copycat nation known for manufacturing shanzai, or fake and pirated products. This difficulty in innovating and reliance on the designs of others largely lay with an education system steeped in rote learning, and a top-down culture with a conformist approach.

This is why experts thought China would struggle when the US decided to introduce restrictions on Chinese access to semiconductor and AI technologies. However, despite these restrictions, China has managed to develop a highly capable AI model of its own in the form of DeepSeek, which was unveiled early this year, and immediately boosted China’s image as an innovator.

Unlike other AI models, DeepSeek was apparently made at a&nbsp, fraction&nbsp, of the cost of other traditional AI models such as ChatGPT and may have a&nbsp, more efficient&nbsp, coding scheme that allows for quicker problem-solving. This has prompted Donald Trump to coin DeepSeek’s development as a wake-up call for the US tech industry.

Many AI startups in China are now revamping their business models to compete with DeepSeek, following the widespread adoption of the latter’s technology. The AI revolution in China could potentially reduce costs and thereby boost efficiency in the financial sector.

Following Trump’s return to the Oval Office, investors across the globe have been trying to reduce their reliance on the US by looking for investment opportunities elsewhere. This isn’t entirely surprising given Trump’s knack for the unpredictable, and how new US tariffs have been applied to a host of US allies such as Mexico, Canada and the European Union.

While Trump is striking an increasingly protectionist tone, China is taking the opposite approach. Trump’s penchant for tariffs and disregard for the economic interest of US allies may mean Beijing might not need to do too much to attract more nations and businesses to consider turning towards Chinese markets.

Chee Meng Tan is assistant professor of business economics, University of Nottingham

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Myanmar quake: ‘I feel guilty – our people need us the most now’

34 hours earlier
Tessa Wong

Reporting fromSamut Sakhon
BBC Burmese
Tessa Wong, BBC Soe Ko Ko Naing looks at the camera wearing a grey T-shirt, standing on a dusty road flanked by shops including one with a red awning with Burmese words on itTessa Wong, BBC

The next day Soe Ko Ko Ko Naing saw his great-uncle was in July at his residence by the lenders of the Irrawaddy River.

Ko Naing, a follower of Myanmar’s military dictatorship weight, was about to leave the nation. Ko Naing, who resides in Min Kun, a small town in the military enclave of Sagaing, did not have faith in someone enough to inform them of his strategy, aside from his favorite Oo Oo (‘uncle’ in Burmese ).

I explained to him that I was visiting Thailand. He believed it to be a wise decision. He wished me great health and safety, Ko Naing, a 35-year-old labor rights advocate, recalls.

Almost a year later, Thailand’s Ko Naing is secure. However, his Oo Oo was killed by the devastating earthquake that struck Sagaing next Friday, killing at least 2, 000 people.

” I have nightmares.” I’m also dealing with my pain,” Ko Naing said.

” I have no regrets about leaving the country because I had to,” she said. But I’m angry because individuals need us now more than ever. I feel vulnerable.

Ko Naing is one of the millions of people in Myanmar’s community eagerly watching from far as their nation battles following its biggest disaster in a decade.

Some people, like him, experience impotence and survivor guilt. Some people find these emotions even more perplexing because they are unable to quickly go back to aid in recovery efforts or follow up with relatives because they face political oppression.

With about 4.3 million Myanmar citizens living in Thailand, the largest community group there is, despite the possibility that this number will rise even more if illegal immigrants are included.

It has huge drawn individuals from Myanmar, who make up a significant portion of its immigrant labor, because it is a wealthier neighbor. Their rates have only increased since the 2021 defense revolt and subsequent civil war.

Some work in the construction industry, with many of the 400 workers at a Bangkok tower believed to be from Myanmar, while others are employed in Thailand’s agribusiness and seafood sectors.

People in Samut Sakhon, a fishing port close to Bangkok where some personnel from Myanmar work, thronged the streets of a street market on a gloomy Monday morning and women with thanaka daubed on their ears.

Houses had signs in both Thai and Burmese, and there were flags advertising SIM cards with low-cost calls to Myanmar.

” We have seen video of buildings collapsing and citizens trapped beneath the dust online. We are so sorry that we are unable to do anything, said 30-year-old factory employee Yin Yin, who, like many others in the group, is concerned about the situation there.

Thant Zin, 28, a shop owner from a Region area that was intact by the earthquake, lamented the destruction of ancient shrines and pagodas in his location. What a catastrophe, y’all! I feel so bad because we have never seen such a lot of harm.

Tessa Wong, BBC A Myanmar woman with thanaka smeared on her face, holding a purple umbrella, looks at the camera at a busy market in Samut SakhonTessa Wong, BBC

Ko Naing sat in his company across the street checking for changes on his home in Myanmar. In or around Sagaing and Mandalay, there are at least 150 of his family.

Thailand, India, and China may feel the effects of Friday’s devastating earthquake because it was so large. Ko Naing claimed that he felt the room stir for about 30 seconds as he lay in bed in Samut Sakhon, hundreds of kilometers from the centre that morning.

He went quickly to social media to find out the earthquake had occurred near to Min Kun. Then he discovered a photo of Sagaing’s Ava Bridge, a native location, lying in damaged ruin in the Irrawaddy River. I have many family there, and I was shocked and devastated. I believed that it must be false reports. However, it was real.

Ko Naing simply heard from his family on Saturday due to the sluggish communication in Myanmar during the hurricane’s immediate fallout. Nearly all was safe and accounted for, he was informed, with the exception of a faraway great-aunt who passed away in Mandalay and his Oo Oo.

Min Kun and its surrounding area had been shelled by the military a month prior that targeted the Women’s Defence Forces ‘ weight. Nearly all of Ko Naing’s community members left the town and moved to Mandalay or a military-controlled area.

Oo Oo had refused to leave the village and rather sought refuge in the monastery, knowing that the military may not be able to attack Buddhist sites.

However, the convent totally collapsed on Friday when the disaster struck. On Monday, his body was discovered in the dust.

Oo Oo is remembered as a candid and vocal 60-year-old by Ko Naing. The two bonded over their shared assistance for the weight, particularly after the coup, in a region dominated by the defense.

The two spent days by the creek, eating lunch, and listening to the news on the news. Ko Naing may assist him in keeping up with the latest news about the legal battle because his great-uncle had no smartphone and no social press. He made up jokes that” I was his private information agency.”

Oo Oo had to leave his job as a fisherman after suffering a stroke that left him partially paralyzed. He would still go to his mother’s tea shop every morning to prepare doughsticks known as ee kyar kwe.

He was the only person I could speak to because he was my source of inspiration, particularly during hard times. He taught me that I could persevere,” Ko Naing said.

Getty Images A Buddhist monk in red robes walks past the damaged Mandalay Palace, where the spire of a pagoda has toppled, during sunset in Mandalay.Getty Images

Ko Naing tapped on that tenacity when he dangerously eluded Myanmar with his wife and five-year-old boy. He was wanted by the defense, which had issued a warrant for his arrest for participating in quiet demonstrations.

His family traveled to the frontier and improperly entered Thailand. The home tripped over a big pipe as they ran in the dark past a Thai border police station and slammed to the ground. His brother slammed against his mind. The worst was feared by Ko Naing.

But to his relief, his brother ejected a loud scream. Ko Naing slammed his hand into the boy’s mouth, picked him up, and drove bicycle toward a waiting people smuggler. They made their way to Samut Sakhon, where they eventually obtained the right to remain in Thailand, before finally settling in the Thai village of Mae Sot.

Ko Naing stated,” To be honest, I’m really depressed at the moment. He is now healthy and has a good job.”

The government has been killing individuals who oppose them since the pandemic first started, followed by the coup, and finally. People have been forced to flee.

The disaster next has increased the pain. The army continues to bomb locations even after the disaster.

” I keep thinking it would be nice if we can be that, if we can do anything,” he said,” It’s depressing dwelling here, seeing the information about my nation.”

He is collaborating with the Myanmar community to obtain funds and provide humanitarian aid to earthquake victims returning house. They are also assisting the Bangkok building’s collapsed building staff in Myanmar.

Nobody will help our people if we’re constantly depressed, so it’s nice that we’re still intact. We can also take action.

” We have to make up our minds about how to repair and how to maneuver forward.”

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Banks roll out relief measures for victims

Cheaper debts and payments falls

Rescue workers and police at the collapse site of the State Audit Office in Bangkok on Friday. Pattarapong Chatpattarasill
Rescue personnel and officers at the decline page of the State Audit Office in Bangkok on Friday. Pattarapong Chatpattarasill

Eight state-owned bankers have introduced reduction steps for victims of the earthquake including debt settlement disqualification and low-interest loans, says assistant state official Anukul Prueksanusak.

He said monetary steps are for both individuals and businesses affected by the earthquake to provide them with instant relief and aid them keep their lives and company procedures.

The financial institutes are the Government Housing Bank ( GHB), SME Development Bank ( SME D Bank ), Thai Credit Guarantee Corporation (TCG), Export-Import Bank of Thailand ( Exim Bank ), Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives ( BAAC ), Government Savings Bank ( GSB), Islamic Bank of Thailand ( IBank ) and Krungthai Bank.

GHB has many programs offering loan repayment punishments, low-interest funding for home inspection as well as a fast-track for reimbursement claims for both current and new customers.

SME D Bank’s support measures include suspending principal and interest payments for up to 12 months and incident loans up to 100, 000 ringgit for individuals and 200, 000 ringgit for businesses with no credit required to ensure proper guidance.

TCG has introduced a six-month expulsion of expenses for SME clients and a three-month payment wait for businesses in debt restructuring programs.

Exim Bank’s relief measures are for both short-term and long-term loan customers and include extending repayments, increasing credit limits and cutting interest rates.

BAAC has allocated a fund of 20 billion baht to provide emergency loans up to 50, 000 baht per individual and rehabilitation loans up to 500, 000 baht per client with special interest rates.

GSB has a debt repayment suspension programme for up to three months and a soft loan for home repair and business rehabilitation for new and current customers.

IBank has introduced a principal and interest repayment suspension for up to six months and a loan programme for home repairs and business rehabilitation up to five million baht with a special interest rate.

Krungthai Bank’s relief measures include a 75 % reduction in loan repayment for one year and loans with special rates for business recovery and home repairs.

” The government is committed to providing assistance to victims particularly those whose homes and business were affected. The state banks are expediting programmes to cover all groups”, said Mr Anukul.

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GE2025: Why Singapore’s high-flying bureaucrats are recruited into politics

GE2020

Tan Kiat How, the senior minister of state for modern development and knowledge, and national development, stepped down from his position as the Infocomm Media Development Authority’s chief executive in 2020. &nbsp,

Desmond Tan, a senior minister of state in the Prime Minister’s office, served as the leader of the People’s Association ( PA ), one of another statutory board before leaving the public sector the following year.

Mr. Eric Chua, who is currently the top political director for culture, community, youth, and sociable and family development, was a former member of the Singapore Civil Defence Force. Prior to that, he served as the Home Affairs Ministry’s producer.

Mr. Yip Hon Weng, a previous group leader of the Silver Generation Office under MOH, is one of the lawmakers. He even studied for the PSC.

Ms. Ng Ling Ling, a GRC MP from Ang Mo Kio, served as the MOH Office of Healthcare Transformation’s commander of potential primary care and chairman of community engagement.

Leong Mun Wai, a non-constitutional member of the Progress Singapore Party, was also a federal professor under the PSC’s International Merit Scholarship. Prior to moving on to work with global investment banks, he began his career with the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation ( GIC ).

GE2015

Transport Minister Chee Hong Tat made his political debut at the 2015 poll after 17 years in the workforce. He was also a second permanent secretary at the Ministry of Trade and Industry ( MTI), the founding prime minister’s first private secretary, and the CEO of the Energy Market Authority ( EMA ).

Additionally, MPs from their respective organizations left their respective organizations to take part in the elections that time.

Mr. Yong was Assistant Commissioner of Police, Mr. Saktiandi had worked for the Monetary Authority of Singapore for more than ten times, and Ms. Pereira was a PA producer. &nbsp,

Leon Perera, a former Workers ‘ Party MP who became an NCMP after the 2015 election, served as EDB’s business development division’s assistant mind.

GE2011

Before moving on to the banking and health departments, PM Wong started his career at MTI. Before moving into politics, he was the then-PM Lee Hsien Loong’s primary private secretary and the EMA chief executive officer. &nbsp,

Heng Swee Keat, Deputy Prime Minister, and former head of personal service to the late Mr. Lee Kuan Yew, were both in the legal service. Additionally, he served as the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s managing director and MTI’s continuous minister.

Desmond Lee, the Minister for National Development, served as the Attorney-General’s Chambers ‘ deputy public prosecutor and, among other things, held positions in the health and law departments. Two weeks before the elections in May 2011, he therefore joined Temasek as in-house lawyers, where he remained until he was appointed as the minister of state for national development in 2013.

Ong Ye Kung, a member of the losing PAP group in Aljunied GRC, also made his 2011 poll album. Prior to joining the United States-Singapore Free Trade Agreement, he was the CEO of the Singapore Workforce Development Agency, then known as Workforce Singapore. He was also a main private secretary to Senior Minister Lee. &nbsp,

Low Yen Ling, the senior minister of state for society, community, youth, trade, and industry, was formerly a member of EDB.

Ms. Sim Ann, the senior minister of state for international politics and national creation, began her professional job in the civil service. Before leaving in 2011, she held top leadership roles at IE Singapore and the National Population Secretariat. &nbsp,

Mr. Desmond Choo, who made his debut in 2011, served in a number of capacities for the Singapore Police Force ( SPF). He is currently the North East District’s governor.

Hazel Poa, the NCMP for the PSP, even contested in her first votes in 2011, but with the National Solidarity Party. Prior to joining the PMO, she worked as the MOF’s associate director for direct tax for four years. &nbsp,

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