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Global economy bracing for Trumpworld – Asia Times

On: December 12, 2024

In: Asia

The world market was already under pressure as a result of Donald Trump’s victory in the November election, which also included a sluggish Europe, an ugly conflict in Ukraine, and a sluggish Chinese market. However, there was a chance that lower interest rates may encourage economic activity and the global economy in 2025 as central banks began to control higher inflation.

Trump’s triumph, however, has a number of reasons to doubt those expectations. The world’s largest economy’s economic policies are under a lot of new confusion, as is how Trump’s extreme rhetoric toward China will actually work. &nbsp,

Trump emphasized three monetary steps on the plan trail that appear more certain than others to be put into practice.

The first is density deportations of illegal immigrants, a round-up that will dent the US’s labour supply with negative consequences for progress and prices. The second is a business income reduction, which will increase the already large US fiscal deficit and national debt but will also encourage more capital to be raised.

Trump plans to increase trade taxes across the board, but to the evident greatest extent against China, in a second and more significant way for the global economy. Given all of these actions’ inflationary effects, it seems obvious that the US Federal Reserve will need to be watchful for any potential spikes or overly sticky prices.

Due to Europe’s surprisingly depressed economic situation, this risk is rarely present in that country. That in turn indicates a weaker euros in the upcoming year as the European Central Bank will be more willing to cut interest rates. &nbsp,

In other words, it seems exceedingly improbable that the fantastic dream of a quick standardization of US monetary policy and, with it, a weaker US dollar, would lead to better global financial conditions. Many developing and emerging markets with access to additional funding are particularly concerned about this Trump-driven transition in world economy expectations.

Given the unhappy financial climate in France and Germany and the good effects it would have on the eurozone’s profitability abroad, a weaker euros may be good news for Europe. That’s especially true as Trump’s taxes will also probably pin the European Union, though to what level is very questionable.

Trump’s primary tariff statements since winning the election, which targeted the US and Mexico ( to be hit with 25 % of US tariffs despite having a trade agreement with the US), may serve as a consolation for the EU that allies and friends won’t become immune to Trump’s tax assault.

Another important issue is whether Trump may impose more severe sanctions on nations that import Chinese goods for US distribution as made in their own countries, including but not limited to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand.

This, among other factors, will decide whether the rest of Asia will be a relative “decoupling” success from Trump’s taxes, as has been the case with the Biden administration’s limits on China trade.

Trump’s plan to reduce US business income and the effects that will have on the relocation of US multinational profits are another important factor. More money will likely flow to the US from Asia as a result of this resettlement.

The Inflation Reduction Act, which granted grants to a limited US-based companies, has already done so. In other words, Trump’s tax plan could leave the US as the most appealing location for squandering international funds, with adverse effects for Asia and Europe. &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp,

Beyond ramped-up US protectionism and business tax cuts, both gross negative for the rest of the world, Trump had accidentally make another major problem for the world economy, especially the dollar’s collapse as the globe’s reserve currency.

Trump has repeatedly stated he craves a weak money to reduce the enormous US trade deficit, despite the fact that these three hooks of his monetary policy mentioned above may eventually enjoy the money, which is how the market responded following his victory. &nbsp,

Within Trump’s world of financial experts, there are voices proposing capital controls, which would be unthinkable of for the world’s supply money. Trump has simply added more complexity by making it seem as though Trump has just threatened BRICS people with 200 % taxes if they decide to de-dollarize their business and finances.

But the rhinoceros in the room is Trump’s program for China. On one hand, Trump has been fiercely aggressive toward Beijing, threatening 60 % tariffs on all Chinese-made products.

In a December 2019 alliance that gave China the right to purchase$ 600 billion worth of US goods and grant them preferential access to US buyers in some highly desired areas of its economy, Trump showed a commitment to strike a deal with China.

The EU may care a lot about how Trump handles China. For Western companies looking to do business with China, a new US-China trade agreement that is comparable to the one from 2019 is likely to be a net negative. Importantly, the 2019 offer saw Western businesses lose market share to American types in China.

All in all, Trump’s 2025 appearance does bring with it a quantum jump in worldwide economic uncertainty.

Trump’s guaranteed taxes and tax breaks could lead to a new rise in global inflation, worsening economic conditions for developing and emerging markets, and more inflows of cash from Asia and Europe into the US, but the effects of these measures on the money and US-China relations may be felt everywhere.

Alicia Garcia Herrero is an adjunct professor at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology and a senior researcher at the Bruegel think tank.

Dozens of condo scam victims seek help

By: Barkar Nash

On: December 11, 2024

In: South-East Asia

If people agreed to purchase condominium units, the Pathum Thani company offered to pay off their debts.

PUBLISHED: 11 Dec 2024 at 20: 25

Veteran social activist Pavena Hongsakula (right) leads a group of 70 people to file complaints with the Department of Special Investigation (DSI) on Wednesday after they were duped into purchasing condominium units, resulting in total losses of 3 billion baht. (Photo supplied/Wassayos Ngamkham) — After being duped into purchasing condominium units, which resulted in total losses of 3 billion baht, veteran social activist Pavena Hongsakula ( right ) leads a group of 70 people to file complaints with the Department of Special Investigation ( DSI) on Wednesday. ( Photo supplied/Wassayos Ngamkham )

A group of 70 people have complained to the Department of Special Investigation ( DSI) that they were duped into purchasing apartment products, resulting in total loss of 3 billion ringgit.

Pavena Hongsakula, chairman of the Pavena Foundation for Children and Women, led the group in filing the issue on Wednesday. She claimed that the team only had about 200 affected people in it.

On Saturday, the plaintiffs complained to the basis that they had been defrauded by a debt-relief firm that offered to pay their payment card payments. In returning, they had to signal contracts to buy property products.

One victim, who gave her name only as Meen, said that the corporation, located in Khlong 2 in Lam Luk Ka city of Pathum Thani, contacted her and offered to live her credit card debt equivalent to 900, 000 baht. She claimed that although the business did give her debts, she had no idea how she knew.

She also reported to the Khu Khot police station in a statement that the business had paid her back in exchange for the loan. She was required to agree to participate in a condominium getting project under a contract with the organization.

She initially assumed she had agreed to purchase one product, but she later learned that the business had submitted her paperwork to numerous institutions to obtain loans. She is currently owed 16 million ringgit for the purchase of four condominiums.

She claimed that the business had promised to pay for the remaining three units. According to the agreement, the company agreed to buy back all of the models within two years. But, it gradually defaulted, leaving her responsible for the entire loan and facing lawsuits from the lenders.

Other victims ‘ views were identical. Some were tricked into purchasing several products, resulting in debts totaling up to 40 million ringgit.

The subjects set up a Collection team that has more than 200 people, said Ms Pavena. All was extremely frightened because the business had already shut down.

Ms. Pavena urged the DSI to work with lenders to negotiate debt reform for the victims, conduct an investigation into the company and other companies that use similar strategies, and post ads on social media.

Thai cabinet approves measures to ease household debt

By: Jing Write

On: December 11, 2024

In: Asia

BANGKOK: Thailand’s cabinet on Wednesday ( Dec 11 ) approved debt support measures, including interest suspensions and reduced principal payments, to help tackle household debt, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra said. The steps will help wholesale lenders and smaller companies, she told a media event. Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira informed investigatorsContinue Reading

India: Is the world’s fastest-growing big economy losing steam?

By: Marcus Ching

On: December 10, 2024

In: Asia

Is the country’s fastest-growing large business losing heat?

The most recent GDP figures paint a depressing image. Between July and September, India’s economy slumped to a seven-quarter low of 5.4 %, well below the Reserve Bank of India ( RBI ) forecast of 7 %.

While it is still strong compared with designed nations, the determine signals a slowdown.

Economics attribute this to a number of elements. Government spending has decreased, private investment has been slow for centuries, and consumer demand has decreased. India’s goods exports have long struggled, with their share sitting at a mere 2 % in 2023.

Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies report tepid sales, while salary bills at publicly traded firms, a proxy for urban wages, shrank last quarter. Even the previously bullish RBI has revised its growth forecast to 6.6% for the financial year 2024-2025.

” All heaven seems to have broken free after the latest GDP quantities”, says analyst Rajeshwari Sengupta. However, this has been growing steadily for some time. There’s a distinct downturn and a major demand problem”.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman paints a brighter picture. She said last week that the decline was “not systemic” but a result of reducing government spending during an election-focused quarter. She expected third-quarter growth to offset the recent decline. India will probably remain the fastest-growing major economy despite challenges like stagnant wages affecting domestic consumption, slowing global demand and climate disruptions in agriculture, Sitharaman said.

Getty Images A shop is selling vegetables at a marketplace in Kolkata, India, on July 10, 2024. Prices of tomatoes, onions, and potatoes - staples in every Indian kitchen - are surging by double digits as extreme heat and heavy floods in northern states are disrupting agricultural production, according to reports

Some – including a senior minister in the federal government, economists and a former member of RBI’s monetary policy group – argue that the central bank’s focus on curbing inflation has led to excessively restrictive interest rates, potentially stifling growth.

Higher prices could reduce purchases and lessen consumption, both important factors in the growth of the economy, and create borrowing more expensive for businesses and consumers. Interest rates have remained constant for almost two years thanks largely to rising prices.

India’s inflation surged to 6.2% in October, breaching the central bank’s target ceiling (4%) and reaching a 14-month high, according to official data. It was mainly driven by food prices, comprising half of the consumer price basket – vegetable prices, for example, rose to more than 40% in October. There are also growing signs that food price hikes are now influencing other everyday costs, or core inflation.

However, high interest rates by themselves may never fully account for the sluggish growth. ” Lowering costs won’t stimulate growth unless use demand is strong. Investors use and spend only when demand exists, and that’s not the case today”, says Himanshu ( he uses just one name ), a development analyst at Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University.

But, RBI’s outgoing government, Shaktikanta Das, believes India’s “growth history remains intact”, adding the “balance between inflation and growth is also poised”.

Economists point out that despite record-high retail credit and rising unsecured loans – indicating people borrowing to finance consumption even amidst high rates – urban demand is weakening. Rural demand is a brighter spot, benefiting from a good monsoon and higher food prices.

AFP Pedestrians walk past the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) signage outside its headquarters ahead of the monetary policy press conference in Mumbai on December 6, 2024

Ms Sengupta, an associate professor at Mumbai-based Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, told the BBC that the ongoing problems was borne out by the notion that India’s business was operating on a” two-speed trajectory”, driven by diverging appearances in its “old market and new business”.

The old business comprising the huge informal industry, including medium and smaller scale industries, agriculture and traditional business sector, are still waiting for long-pending reforms.

In contrast, the new economy, defined by the boom in services exports post-Covid, experienced robust growth in 2022-23. Outsourcing 2.0 has been a key driver, with India emerging as the world’s largest hub for global capability centres ( GCCs ), which do high-end offshore services work.

According to Deloitte, a consulting firm, over 50% of the world’s GCCs are now based in India. These centres focus on R&D, engineering design and consulting services, generating $46bn (£36bn) in revenue and employing up to 2 million highly skilled workers.

” This influx of GCCs fueled urban consumption by boosting the demand for SUVs, real estate, and luxury goods. For 2-2.5 years post-pandemic, this drove a surge in urban spending. With GCCs largely established and consumption patterns shifting, the urban spending lift is fading”, says Ms Sengupta.

Thus, while the new economy is sluggish, the old economy appears to lack a growth catalyst. Private investment is crucial, but without strong consumption demand, firms will not invest. Consumption demand cannot recover without investments to create jobs and increase incomes. ” It’s a vicious cycle”, says Ms Sengupta.

There are other confusing signals as well. India’s average tariffs have risen from 5% in 2013-14 to 17% now, higher than Asian peers trading with the US. In a world of global value chains, where exporters rely on imports from multiple countries, high tariffs make goods more expensive for companies to trade, making it harder for them to compete in global markets.

Getty Images The production line at the Renault Nissan Automotive India Pvt. manufacturing plant in Chennai, India, on Wednesday, March 27, 2024.

Then there is what economist Arvind Subramanian refers to as a “new twist in the tale.”

Even as calls grow to lower interest rates and boost liquidity, the central bank is propping up a falling rupee by selling dollars, which tightens liquidity. Since October, the RBI has spent $50bn from its forex reserves to shield the rupee.

Buyers are required to pay in rupees for purchases of dollars, which lessens the amount of market liquidity. Maintaining a strong rupee through policy changes makes Indian goods more expensive on global markets, which results in a lower export demand.

” Why is the rupee being stabilized by the central bank?” The policy has negative effects on both the economy and exports. Perhaps they are doing it because of optics. They don’t want to show India’s currency is weak”, Mr Subramanian, a former economic adviser to the government, told the BBC.

Critics warn that the “hyping up the narrative” of India as the fastest-growing economy is hindering essential reforms to boost investment, exports and job creation. ” We are still a poor country. Our per capita GDP is less than$ 3, 000, while the US is at$ 86, 000. If you say we are growing faster than them, it makes no sense at all”, says Ms. Sengupta.

In other words, India needs a significantly higher and more consistent growth rate to increase its workforce and increase its income.

Short-term goals for boosting growth and consumption won’t be easy. Lacking private investment, Himanshu suggests raising wages through government-run employment schemes to increase incomes and spur consumption. For example, Ms. Sengupta advocates for lowering tariffs and attracting export investments moving away from China to nations like Vietnam.

The government remains upbeat over the India story: banks are strong, forex reserves are robust, finances stable and extreme poverty has declined. Chief economic adviser V Anantha Nageswaran says the latest GDP figure should not be over-interpreted. “We should not throw the baby out with the bathwater, as the underlying growth story remains intact,” he said at a recent meeting.

Evidently, the rate of growth could use some improvement. That is why scepticism lingers. ” There’s no nation as ambitious for so long without taking]adequate ] steps to fulfill that ambition”, says Ms Sengupta. ” Meanwhile, the headlines talk of India’s age and decade- I’m waiting for that to materialise”.

BNY hires Apac head of global markets trading, makes UAE appointment | FinanceAsia

By: Marcus Ching

On: December 10, 2024

In: Asia, Finance, South-East Asia

Ashvin (Ash) Parkash has joined BNY on December 9 as head of global markets trading for Asia Pacific (Apac).

The global bank has handed Parkash responsibility for accelerating its global markets trading services to clients across the Apac region, according to the a media release.

Parkash (pictured) will continue to be based in Singapore and is joining BNY from Nomura, where he was responsible for electronic distribution across fixed income and FX. With 25 years of industry experience, in addition to Nomura, Parkash has held leadership roles at BNP Paribas, Citibank, and Lehman Brothers.

Parkash will report to Jason Vitale, BNY’s head of global markets trading, and Nelius De Groot, BNY’s head of markets international.

BNY is looking to grow its global markets trading business internationally and this latest move follows the establishment of its EU trading desk, and the appointment of Bianca Gould as head of fixed income and equities for EMEA, earlier this year.

In the media release, Vitale commented: “A continues to present real opportunities for our business, as we see growing demand from our clients looking for differentiated execution services and high-quality solutions to streamline their operating model.”

Vitale added: “I’m thrilled to welcome Ash, whose track record in growing businesses and experience in product strategy make him an ideal fit as we deliver high-quality solutions for our clients across markets.”

UAE appointment

BNY has also appointed Madiha Sattar as managing director and Growth Ventures partner, in a newly created global role based in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Sattar has joined the leadership team of BNY’s Growth Ventures business, which oversees new businesses that sit between technology, data, and investment solutions.

Last year, BNY invested in Abu Dhabi-based financial tech firm Alpheya, which is developing an end-to-end wealth management platform for wealth and asset managers in the Middle East.

As Growth Ventures partner, Sattar will play a strategic role working with clients in the region to build and invest in regional and global opportunities across financial markets data and analytics, wealth technology, and alternative assets data and distribution.

With over 20 years’ experience across operating and strategy roles, Sattar joins BNY from Careem, a MENA super app sold to Uber in 2019 for $3.1 billion, where she built and led several new businesses. Prior to that, Sattar spent time at JP Morgan Chase and McKinsey in New York.

BNY has been operating in the UAE for over 26 years and was recently granted a category 4 license by the Financial Services Regulatory Authority to expand its offering to clients within the Abu Dhabi Global Market.

Akash Shah, chief growth officer and global head of growth ventures at BNY, said, “We are excited to welcome Madiha, who brings deep experience to the business and will play a strategic role as we accelerate the GCC’s ambitions to become a global centre of technology and financial services.”

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Trump’s BRICS ultimatum won’t deter de-dollarization – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: December 10, 2024

In: Asia, Finance

The US President-elect is undoubtedly concerned about what the BRICS countries might have in business for the US dollar as Donald Trump prepares for a second term in the White House.

And, not surprisingly, Trump is threatening big-time fines for any hint of de-dollarization among Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and the grouping’s novel people, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Trump recently posted to his Truth Social system, saying that the notion that the BRICS countries are trying to walk away from the money while we watch and watch is over.

We demand a commitment from these nations that they won’t create a new BRICS money, nor will they support any other money to replace the powerful US money, or that they will be subject to 100 % tariffs, and that they should anticipate saying goodbye to selling into the wonderful US market.

Never simply a delightful bed from the Trump 2.0 group. Trump’s affected tariffs on the BRICS may only serve as fuel for the” International South” to look for or develop a buck alternative.

According to Michael Wan, senior currency analyst at MUFG Research, it’s unclear how 100 % tariffs on a group of nations that make up 37 % of global GDP would actually occur.

Additionally, it’s unclear how the BRICS’ sky-high taxes would benefit the world’s largest economy. But as Deutsche Bank argues, Trump’s preoccupation with a powerful money appears greater than ever.

” This seems to further show that money strength is an concern for the new leadership, unlike Trump 1.0″, when the US took a less ambitious approach, Deutsche researchers wrote.

Development countries have plenty of reason to be concerned about the dollars with US government debt exceeding US$ 36 trillion and Trump countering enormous budget-busting tax cuts. Washington, after all, only has one AAA record score left — from Moody’s Investors Service.

Morgan Stanley, for one, is advising that it might be time to sell the dollars. According to scientist David Adams,” a lot of the great news for the USD” has already been priced, with the majority of them having “largely internalized the US outperformance storyline” based on Trump’s pledges to impose their tax and trade policies. Businesses, though, may become “overestimating the rate, depth and scale” of those swings.

” We sense investment attitude on the whole is very productive on the franc, suggesting asymmetrical risks for a’ problems trade,’ in the months ahead”, Adams noted.

Trump World has made it clear the US Federal Reserve’s democracy, a key component in global confidence in the greenback, is also on the board come January. The” Project 2025″ system that his Democratic party cooked up for Trump 2.0 includes treatments for curbing the Fed’s much-vaunted freedom.

The Fed almost escaped Trump 1.0 unhurt. Trump placed the pressure on his hand-picked Fed Chairman Jerome Powell first and frequently during his first term in office, which spanned from 2017 to 2021.

Trump attacked the Powell-led Fed in statements, press events and on social media. Trump also mulled firing Powell. The Fed started adding liquidity to an business that didn’t have any additional assistance in the same year.

In October, Trump mocked Powell’s policy staff over. ” I think it’s the greatest job in government”, Trump told Bloomberg. Everyone talks about you like a god when you say, “let’s say turn a gold,” and you show up to the office once a month.

But&nbsp, Trump&nbsp, even defends the right of the leader to persuade the Fed into lowering costs. In August, Trump said,” the Federal Reserve&nbsp, is a very fascinating thing and it’s sort of gotten it wrong a bunch”.

Trump added,” I feel the leader should have at least stayed there, yeah. I feel that clearly. I think that, in my situation, I made a lot of money. I was extremely prosperous. And I believe I have a better impulse than those who, in many cases, may become chairman of the Federal Reserve.

For Asian officials and politicians, it’s a truly personalized abuse on the Fed’s position. The largest US Treasury supplies ever held by Eastern central bankers are held by the world’s largest central banks. Japan only holds$ 1.1 trillion&nbsp, of US loan, China$ 770-plus billion.

More broadly, Asia’s largest holders of dollars are sitting on about$ 3 trillion worth. It all implies that a Trump 2.0 administration would put a lot of Asian state success in danger.

Actually so, Trump is trying to wrench up tariff-induced problems for any country — or economic bloc — brave to champion a penny alternative.

The coming Treasury Department, however, was apply currency manipulation charges, trade controls or levies on trade beyond anything Trump has previously suggested or announced.

Trump appears to be prepared to punish allies who look to conduct bilateral trade in currencies other than the dollar, as well as adversaries. In March, Trump told CNBC that he “would not allow countries to go off the dollar”, as it would be” a hit to our country”.

Yet de-dollarization has moved to the center of the BRICS agenda, particularly since the grouping’s 2023 summit. Both Trump’s and US President Joe Biden’s fingerprints are present in this backlash.

Trump’s meddling with the Fed, hints at defaulting on US debt, and fiscal excesses affected dollar perceptions significantly. When Fitch Ratings revoked Washington’s AAA status, it&nbsp, cited the Capitol Hill chaos on&nbsp, January&nbsp, 6, 2021, as a “reflection of the deterioration in governance” imperiling US finances.

Biden-led efforts to impose economic sanctions on Russia, including accusations of “weaponizing” the dollar, exacerbated the problem.

” The United States ‘ ability to hobble Russia to this extent, without firing a shot, highlights the sovereignty of the United States and the dollar in the global economy”, argues George Pearkes, an analyst at the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center.

” In this case”, Pearkes noted,” sovereignty is the degree to which a currency issuer can dictate the use of that currency”. But, he added,” by using the power of dollar sovereignty, dollar sovereignty risks endangering the reserve status, which allows it to be weaponized”.

To be sure, Pearkes noted that “aggressive use of dollar weaponization has been signaled repeatedly by US policymakers to achieve US goals in the current Ukraine dispute.”

Although this would have a significant impact on Russia, he noted that “negative feedback on dollar sovereignty will be measured in decades rather than years— and will unavoidably come.”

According to Pearkes,” the ability to restrict access to financial markets is significantly more powerful than it has historically been.” What’s more, he noted,” the weaponized dollar” was “already a fact of life in global affairs” before Russia invaded Ukraine.

Pearkes noted that” the governments of Cuba, Iran, North Korea and Venezuela can all attest to that fact, as can their civilian populations. In all four countries, dollar sovereignty has been weaponized in a contemporary context”.

Trump is, however, steadfast in his desire to avoid the risk that the Global South might lose the dollar. &nbsp,

There is no way the BRICS will ever replace the US dollar in global trade, and any nation trying should wave goodbye to America, Trump said via social media.

Trump has recently shook markets with plans to impose 25 % tariffs on Canada and Mexico as well as additional levies on China up and above the 60 % he has already threatened.

Curiously, Trump said he’s had contact with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in recent days. Over the weekend, Trump told NBC that “we’ve had communication”.

At the Group of 20 summit in Japan in June 2019, Trump and Xi had their final in-person meeting. Trump stated to NBC,” I had an agreement with President Xi, who I got along with very well.

Still, Trump World is clearly steeling for a Trade War 2.0 with Xi’s Communist Party. Last week, Trump buttressed his” Tariff Man” street cred by naming uber-China hawk Peter Navarro as his top trade adviser. Navarro, &nbsp, who in 2011 co-authored a book titled” Death by China”, rarely misses a chance to accuse Xi’s party of “robbing us blind”.

Trump also appointed aggressive China critic Marco Rubio as secretary of state, and padded his next trade negotiations team with extremists like Jamieson Greer and Robert Lighthizer.

Trump 2.0’s supporters contend that tariffs are merely a tactic used to bring Xi’s party to consensus. Yet Xi’s inner circle seems unsure of Trump’s sincerity concerning a new “grand bargain” trade deal.

Case in point: Beijing’s move to limit the sales of key components used to build drones to the US and Europe. While bad news for Ukraine’s defense against Russia, it also serves as a sign of upcoming broader export restrictions.

China also opened an investigation into US chipmaker Nvidia this week following concerns that the business might have violated its anti-monopoly laws. This is also being interpreted as a sign of targeted Chinese trade war retaliation measures. Nvidia is at the center of Nvidia’s efforts to rule the artificial intelligence market.

Earlier this year, the BRICS added Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE to its ranks.

Mariel Ferragamo, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, said,” The addition of Egypt and Ethiopia will amplify voices from the African continent.” Egypt also shared close political ties with Russia and close business ties with China and India. As a new BRICS member, Egypt seeks to&nbsp, attract more investment&nbsp, and improve its battered economy”.

According to Ferragamo,” the addition of Saudi Arabia and the UAE would bring in the Arab world’s two biggest economies, as well as the second and eighth top oil producers globally.”

Yet the most powerful connector among BRICS members, old and new, is stepping out of Washington’s financial orbit. As such,” we think the bloc&nbsp, has &nbsp, the most potential to forward its de-dollarization agenda in&nbsp, FX reserves and fuel trade”, said Chris Turner, global markets head at ING Bank.

Turner noted that the BRICS bloc controls 42 % of global central bank currency reserves, likely contributing to the global de-dollarization process.

The BRICS is “gaining more and more visibility as a trade partner for other emerging markets, particularly in the fuel trade,” adding that it is “gaining more and more ground in regional trade.” BRICS accounts for 37 % of the EM fuel trade, a key area of interest for de-dollarization”, he said.

The BRICS , Turner noted, “is actively de-dollarizing its financial flows from above-average levels, as seen through declining shares of US dollar in their cross-border bank claims, international debt securities, and broader external debt”.

The BRICS , according to Turner, “has a much smaller global presence in those areas that limits the impact of its regional de-dollarization on the global role of the US dollar.”

Even so, the BRICS are causing the dollar to pivot, despite Trump’s efforts to stifle the process. Perhaps the better course of action would be to improve the US financial system.

But that seems unlikely as Trump eyes additional multi-trillion-dollar tax cuts sure to push America’s national debt toward an eye-watering$ 40 trillion over the next four years.

Trump may also be using the reserve currency to defy de-dollarization advocates. With the BRICS cast playing the role of a spoiler, the dollar will likely be a major battleline in the Trump 2.0 era.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

Adani Group: Will bribery charges hinder India’s renewable energy goals?

By: Marcus Ching

On: December 10, 2024

In: Asia

Reuters Indian billionaire Gautam Adani attends the 51st Gems and Jewellery Awards in Jaipur, India, November 30, 2024. REUTERS/Stringer

Business leaders have told the BBC that corruption allegations made by a US judge against the Adani Group are unlikely to significantly alter India’s commitment to fresh energy.

Delhi, which is essential to global efforts to combat climate change, has committed to getting half of its energy needs or 500 gigawatts ( GW ) of electricity from renewable sources by 2032.

The Adani Group is expected to make a twelfth of that contribution.

The legal troubles in the US could temporarily delay the group’s expansion plans but will not affect the government’s overall targets, analysts say.

Over the past ten years, India has made significant progress in building a clean energy facilities.

The nation is growing at the “fastest level among key economy” in adding solar potential, according to the International Energy Agency.

Installed fresh strength power has grown five-fold, with some 45 % of the region’s power-generation capacity- of almost 200GW- coming from non-fossil fuel sources.

Charges against the Adani Group- essential to India’s fresh energy ambitions- are “like a passing black cloud”, and will not adequately impact this momentum, a previous CEO of a rival firm said, wanting to remain anonymous.

Getty Images A maintenance worker inspects solar panels at a solar power plant operated by Ayana Renewable Power Pvt. in Tuticorin, India, on Wednesday, March 20, 2024.

Gautam Adani has vowed to invest $100bn (£78.3bn) in India’s energy transition. Its green energy arm is the country’s largest renewable energy company, producing nearly 11GW of clean energy through a diverse portfolio of wind and solar projects.

Adani has a goal to scale that to 50GW BY 2030, which will make up roughly 10 % of the region’s unique installed power.

Over half of that, or 30GW, may be produced at Khavda, in the northern Indian state of Gujarat. It is billed as the largest fresh power plant in the world, five times the size of Paris, and the crown jewel of Adani’s solar initiative.

However, US prosecutors are now focusing on Khavda and Adani’s other renewable energy amenities, alleging that they obtained bribes from American officials after winning contracts to supply power to express submission companies from these facilities. The organization has refuted this assertion.

However, the consequences are now discernible at the organization level.

Adani Green Energy immediately canceled a$ 600 million bond offering in the US when the indictment was made public.

France’s TotalEnergies, which owns 20 % of Adani Green Energy and has a joint endeavor to develop various solar projects with the company, said it will end new capital infusion into the business.

Significant credit ratings agencies- Moody’s, Fitch and S&amp, P- have since changed their view on Adani team companies, including Adani Green Energy, to bad. This may affect the company’s ability to raise money and increase the cost of doing so.

As global loans become resentful of the group’s increased exposure, researchers have also raised fears about Adani Green Energy’s ability to refinance its debts.

International lenders like Jeffries and Barclays are now said to be reviewing their ties to Adani despite the group’s dependence on foreign banks and local friendship issues for long-term bill increasing from little 14 % in the 2016 fiscal year to nearly 60 % as of this writing, according to a Bernstein note.

Nomura, a Japanese brokerage, claims that new financing should “gradually resume in the long term” despite the possibility that it might dry up in the short term. Meanwhile, Japanese banks like MUFG, SMBC, Mizuho are likely to continue their relationship with the group.

The “reputational and sentimental impact” will fade away in a few months, as Adani is building” solid, strategic assets and creating long-term value”, the unnamed CEO said.

Getty Images This aerial photograph taken on October 15, 2024 shows solar panels installed at the Adani Green Renewable Energy Plant in Khavda, in India's Gujarat state.

The Adani Group’s spokesperson told the BBC that it was” confident of delivering 50 GW of renewable energy capacity and committed to its 2030 goals.”

Adani stocks have rebounded significantly from their lowest levels since the US court’s indictment.

Some analysts told the BBC that Adani’s competitors might benefit from a potential slowdown in funding.

While Adani’s financial influence has allowed it to rapidly expand in the sector, its competitors such as Tata Power, Goldman Sachs-backed ReNew Power, Greenko and state-run NTPC Ltd are also significantly ramping up manufacturing and generation capacity.

” It’s not that Adani is a green energy champion. Being the biggest private developer of coal plants in the world, it is a big player that has walked both sides of the street,” said Tim Buckley, director at Climate Energy Finance.

A large entity, “perceived to be corrupt” possibly slowing its expansion, could mean “more money will start flowing into other green energy companies”, he said.

According to Vibhuti Garg, director of South Asia at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis ( IEEFA ), market fundamentals also continue to be strong, with India’s demand outpacing supply, which is likely to maintain the appetite for large investments.

What could in fact slow the pace of India’s clean energy ambitions is its own bureaucracy.

” Companies we track are very upbeat. Finance isn’t a problem for them. If anything, it is state-level regulations that act as a kind of deterrent”, says Ms Garg.

Getty Images Wind turbines at the ReGen Powertech Pvt. farm in Dewas, Madhya Pradesh, India, on Friday, Sept. 9, 2022.

Most state-run power distribution companies continue to face financial constraints, opting for cheaper fossil fuels, while dragging their feet on signing purchase agreements.

According to Reuters, the controversial tender won by Adani was the first major contract issued by state-run Solar Energy Corp of India (SECI) without a guaranteed purchase agreement from distributors.

According to SEC I’s chairman, there are 30GW of operational green energy projects on the market without buyers.

According to experts, the 8GW solar contract at the heart of Adani’s US indictment also reveals the tense tendering process, which required solar power generation companies to produce modules, which limited the number of bidders and increased power costs.

According to Ms. Garg, the court’s indictment will undoubtedly cause the bidding and tendering rules to tighten.

According to Mr. Buckley, a cleaner tendering process that lowers risks for both developers and investors will be crucial going forward.

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HSBC confirms Asia, Middle East leadership under new structure | FinanceAsia

By: Marcus Ching

On: December 6, 2024

In: Asia, Finance, South-East Asia

HSBC has confirmed a number of top positions in Asia and the Middle East as a result of its global restructuring to four running products. &nbsp,

Luanne Lim and Diana Cesar will continue to lead HSBC Hong Kong and Hang Seng Bank, according to the London-based bank’s chief executive officer ( CEO ), Georges Elhedery. Maggie Ng, mind of wealth and personal finance, Hong Kong, and Frank Fang, mind of commercial finance, Hong Kong and Macau, did report directly to Lim covering financial &amp, money submission and the commercial banking businesses both. The Hang Seng Bank business leaders did report immediately to Cesar.

In a December 5 news, the banks also confirmed that Selim Kervanci, who is now chief executive of Turkey, may become CEO of the Middle East from January 1, 2025, pending regulatory acceptance. Stephn Moss, HSBC’s mind of Middle East, North Africa and Turkey, is leaving the business at the end of the time.

Mohammed Marzouqi will continue as CEO of the United Arab Emirates, Kee Joo Wong may be as CEO of India, Mark Wang may be as CEO of mainland China, and Hitendra Dave may be as CEO of the United Arab Emirates.

Co-chief professionals Surendra Rosha and David Liao, who oversee HSBC’s Asia and Middle East businesses, are in charge of the company’s Middle East and Asia Pacific operations. In his power as Asia and Middle East’s key business agent, Phillip Fellowes will continue to support Liao and Rosha with a focus on the Hong Kong company.

For the bank’s new arm, Corporate and Institutional Banking ( CIB ), Jo Miyake, interim CEO and chief commercial officer, HSBC Global Commercial Bamking, has been named head of banking, Asia and Middle East, overseeing client relationships and driving collaboration across regions and businesses. She may start in January.

Sir Danny Alexander will be based in London as the company’s CEO of equipment financing and conservation. &nbsp,

Even in Asia, Kai Zhang has been appointed&nbsp, as head of global success and top banks, Asia. Zhang is currently the head of South and Southeast Asia’s wealth and personal banking ( WPB).

Annabel Spring CEO, world private banks and riches, is leaving the bank at the end of the year to “pursue another possibilities”, while Nicola Moreau will remain as CEO, property management, and Ed Mocreiffe as CEO, plan. &nbsp,

For the complete list of changes at the London-headquartered banks made in the news, see below.

Click here for more FinanceAsia people movements. &nbsp,

Delhi AQI: Why there’s no song and dance around India’s killer air

By: Marcus Ching

On: December 6, 2024

In: Asia

Screengrab from Pink's truck Amitabh Bachchan seen wearing a mask as he stands in a park behind metal grills

In the 2016 Bollywood hit Pink, a field introducing Amitabh Bachchan’s personality shows the artist emerging from his house on a spring morning into Delhi’s smog-filled roads, wearing a helmet.

Other scenes of the movie have the helmet and Delhi’s hazy air, but they have little to do with the plot.

Yet, it is one of the rare examples of mainstream Indian films taking notice of the deadly air that makes many parts of India dangerous to live in every year.

The toxic air pollution and recurrent winter smog in Indian capital Delhi and other parts of northern India frequently makes headlines, becoming a matter of public concern, political debate and legal censure. But unlike disasters such as the devastating floods in Uttarakhand in 2013, Kerala in 2018 and Mumbai city in 2005 – each of which have inspired films – air pollution is largely missing from Indian pop culture.

Siddharth Singh, author of The Great Smog of India, a book on pollution, says that it is a “big loss” that air pollution is not a prevalent tale in India’s books and film.

He points out that the majority of writing on waste in India is still written in the field of education and medical expertise.

” When you say PM2.5 or NOx or SO2 ( all pollutants ), what are these words? They mean nothing to]ordinary ] people”.

In his 2016 text, The Great Derangement, artist Amitav Ghosh, who has written extensively about climate change, observed that such tales were missing from modern literature.

“People are weirdly normal about climate change,” he said in a 2022 interview.

The author described being in India during a heat wave.

The most disconcerting thing he said was the sensation that everything seemed to be standard. It seems as though we have now learned to adapt to these changes.

Ghosh described culture shift as” a slow crime,” which made it challenging to write about.

That is undoubtedly true of pollution; it can have long-lasting negative effects on people’s health, but it is not suitable for serious visuals.

Saumya Khandelwal Two people treat a wounded bird. One of them, a man in a checquered grey shirt and a green apron, is seen holding the bird with gloved hands as it lays on a steel surface with medical equipment around it. A third man stand next to him pressing a finger into the bird.

The subject has, however, been explored in documentaries like Shaunak Sen’s All That Breathes, which was nominated for the Oscars in 2022.

Through the story of two sons who treated wounded black kite that fell from the state’s smoke-filled stars, Sen explored climate change, pollution, and the connected character of human-animal connections in Delhi’s ecosystem in the movie.

Sen claims he was interested in learning about climate change and” anything as big as the Anthropocene,” a term used to describe the current state of humankind’s profound influence on the life and real world.

The two boys are seen in a scene in the movie argue. Then, one of them turns to the sky and says,” Yeh sab jo hamare beech mein ho beloved hai, ye is sab ki galti hai ( What’s happening between us is the problem of all of this )” and then points to themselves.

“]The effects of climate change ] basically pervade through every aspect of our life”, Sen says. ” And the task of picture, be it film or poetry, is to provide it that kind of resilience in its representation”.

Economic films that are pretentious, restrictive, or keep audiences by the neck to make them feel poor do more disservice than great, he says.

The best movies, in my opinion, are those that are Trojan horses that can infect thoughts without the viewer realizing it.

Filmmaker Nila Madhab Panda, whose work on climate change and setting spans more than 70 pictures, believes arts can make a change.

Panda, who began telling tales on climate change in 2005 with his film Climate’s First Orphan, turned to more mainstream film for the information to achieve wider people.

Nila Madhab Panda A still from the film showing a woman wearing a blue kurta standing with her lawyer in a courtroom. To her right, her husband stands wearing an orange shirt and crossbody bag, with his lawyer standing next to them. A thin layer of polluted air hangs in the room

The director moved to Delhi in 1995 after growing up in the Kalahandi Balangir Koraput area of the eastern state of Odisha, which was sensitive to droughts and floods.

” It amazed me that I was living in a world where I could see four months and immediately guzzle water from the river. Normal wealth is complimentary to us- atmosphere, water, fire, everything. And I come to Delhi where you buy anything. I buy ocean, I buy atmosphere. Every place has an atmosphere filter”.

In 2019, Panda made a short film for an anthology in which he explored the theme of Delhi’s pollution through a courtroom drama about a couple getting a divorce because they couldn’t agree on whether to continue living in the capital.

” You can’t just make anything which is not entertaining and show]it ]”, Panda says.

Additionally, authors face the difficulty of humanizing challenging stories.

Singh, whose 2018 guide looked at India’s air pollution problems, says he struggled to find the individuals behind the data while writing it.

” We often read the news stories about a million or two million people per year passing away from waste,” the source said. But where are these folks? Where are their reports”?

Getty Images A woman covers her face as she walks past school boys on a cold smoggy morning in the old quarters of New Delhi in November 2024

While Nilanjana S Roy’s crime fiction Black River frequently includes environmental themes, many modern English artists, including Ghosh, have also highlighted the subject. Delhi’s Bhalswa rubbish dump functions. In Gigi Ganguly’s Biopeculiar and Janice Pariat’s Everything the Light Touches, the writers explore our relationship with the natural environment.

But there is still a long way to go.

According to Singh, one of the causes of the relative lack of these stories may be that the authors are “insulated” because of their privilege.

” They are not the people who are by the bank of the]polluted ] Yamuna river, who see the poem in it or write about the stories along its banks”.

He claims that memes and photos on social media these days have been the most effective at capturing the gravity of air pollution.

Sheikh Hasina, the exiled Bangladesh PM who is now in Delhi, was mentioned in a meme that was popular a few days ago. However, the accompanying photo was completely gray because the joke was that the air pollution prevented people from seeing her.

The writer hopes that those who can actually make a difference will eventually find the momentum to” trigger a response.”

” I think that’s what we lack at the moment”, he says.

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Deadline for banks to cease processing corporate cheques extended to end-2026

By: Marcus Ching

On: December 5, 2024

In: South-East Asia

NEW ELECTONIC DEFFERED PAYMENT METHODS

ABS, together with the seven Domestic Systemically Important Banks (D-SIBs ), will launch two new e-payment methods, EDP and EDP , in mid-2025.

The D-SIBs are Citibank, DBS Bank, HSBC, Maybank, OCBC Singapore, Standard Chartered Bank and UOB.

EDP and EDP are meant to&nbsp, “address the usage scenarios of post-dated bills and purchases requiring greater clarity of settlement respectively”, said MAS and ABS.

They added that when money are taken out of the payor account, the main distinction between EDP and EDP is found. For EDP, resources are deducted upon issuance by the recipient, while for EDP , resources are deducted immediately upon release.

Both will benefit from Pay Now, which will be accessible via online banking systems, and enable payers to track payees when making payments.

Both forms will also be appropriate for six months from the powerful date, equivalent to cheques and pharmacist’s orders, which are cheques issued by banks themselves.

The two e-payment methods will provide superior features, including online notifications to both payer and payee at the different transaction stages- issuance, presentment, expiration and cancellation.

DISTINCTING FROM CHEQUE USAGE

In November 2022, MAS released a discussion report that suggested a plan to eliminate the use of checks in Singapore.

In Singapore, there is a decrease in the use of checks by both businesses and individuals, resulting in e-payment options.

According to MAS and ABS, annual cheque transaction level has decreased by about 80 % from 61 million in 2016 to less than 14 million in 2023.

The share of Singdollar-denominated cheque transaction volume as a proportion of payments using Fast and Secure Transfers ( “FAST” ), Inter-bank GIRO&nbsp, and cheques has decreased from 32 per cent&nbsp, in 2016 to less than 4 per cent in&nbsp, 2023.

Additionally, cashier’s orders and USD paychecks will still be available, according to MAS and ABS, as well as for both business and retail customers.

Big retail businesses in Singapore may also remain to exempt seniors from paying request service fees.

By Jan. 17, 2025, Interested parties are asked to provide their opinions on a common consultation document outlining the transition plan from checks to e-payments.

Banks (Page 4)

NEW ELECTONIC DEFFERED PAYMENT METHODS

DISTINCTING FROM CHEQUE USAGE