Myanmar: Young insurgents changing the course of a forgotten war

13 hours ago

Quentin Sommerville,BBC News, Myanmar

BBC Graduation ceremonyBBC

Two loudspeakers, as big as the men carrying them, are brought to the rocky hilltop. Some 800m below, in the town of Hpasang, lies a sprawling Myanmar army base.

It’s a blisteringly hot day – above 40C – and behind, on bamboo poles, more young resistance fighters carry a large, heavy battery pack and amplifier. Leading the ascent is Nay Myo Zin, a former army captain who, after 12 years in the military, defected to the resistance.

With his dark green camouflage jacket draped over one shoulder, he has the air of a performer about to take the stage. He is here to urge the soldiers in the base below, who are loyal to the country’s ruling military, to switch sides.

In this jungle deep in Karenni state in the east of Myanmar, two forces face each other in a fight that has, in one way or another, been going on for decades. But the rapid advances by the resistance in recent months indicate that this time they may have the advantage.

The South East Asian nation is at a crossroads – after decades of military rule and brutal repression, ethnic groups, along with a new army of young insurgents, have brought the dictatorship to crisis point.

In the past seven months, somewhere between half and two-thirds of the country has fallen to the resistance. Tens of thousands of people have been killed, including many children, since the military seized power in a coup in 2021. Some 2.5 million have been displaced, and the military facing an unprecedented challenge to its rule and in an attempt to thwart the growing resistance regularly bombs civilians, schools and churches from its warplanes (the resistance has none).

Map of Myanmar

Before Nay Myo Zin’s sound equipment is switched on, the army opens fire on his position.

Undeterred, with a flick of the switch and microphone in hand, he bellows: “Everyone, cease fire! Cease fire, please. Just listen for five minutes, 10 minutes.” Somewhat surprisingly, the barrage stops.

He tells them of the 4,000 soldiers who surrendered to the opposition in northern Shan State, and the recent insurgent drone attacks on military buildings in the country’s capital Nay Pyi Taw. The message is, we are winning, your regime is falling, it is time to give up.

Here in Hpasang and across Karenni state, across much of the country, battles and stalemates have taken hold as a great rolling rebellion threatens the rule of the military junta. The military coup in 2021 brought an end to the elected civilian government, and its leader Aung San Suu Kyi remains imprisoned, along with other political leaders.

Yet this is an under-reported conflict – with much of the world’s attention on Ukraine and the Israel-Gaza conflict. There is no press freedom, foreign journalists are rarely allowed to enter officially and when they do are heavily monitored. There is no way to hear the resistance side of this story through government approved visits.

We travelled into Myanmar and spent a month in the east of the country living alongside resistance groups fighting across Karenni State, which borders Thailand, and Shan state, which borders China.

We travelled on jungle tracks and backroads, to front lines where the military has been cut off and surrounded for weeks, where like in Hpasang, the fighters have the high ground. In others, such as Moebye, further north, the opposition has suffered heavy losses as it attempted direct assaults across heavily mined ground. There, and in Loikaw, the state capital, the strength of the rebellion and its limitations are in plain view.

 Nay Myo Zin broadcasts to the camp below

In Hpasang, the resistance has been playing a waiting game, confident that they have the upper hand. Some 80 soldiers have been trapped inside the base for more than a month, with about 100 more believed to be dead or injured.

Up on the hilltop, via his loudspeaker, Nay Myo Zin makes the case for surrender: “We have surrounded you. There is no possibility of a helicopter coming. Ground troops support? No. You have time today to decide whether to switch to the people’s side.”

There’s silence from the military camp below.

Nay Myo Zin urges them to abandon Min Aung Hlaing, the general in charge of the ruling junta.

“All your lives will surely be spared. This is the highest promise that I can give. So, don’t be foolish. Would you rather protect tyrant Min Aung Hlaing’s unjustifiable wealth until your last breath? Now, I am waiting to welcome you.”

Moments pass, there is only the sound of flies buzzing on the hilltop, as perhaps the junta forces are considering their response. It is no easy decision, if they surrender and are returned to military-controlled areas, they will probably be sentenced to death.

Their answer comes loudly; definitively. They again fire on the rocky outpost, the insurgents begin to duck for cover. There will be no surrender today.

Nay Myo Zin continues broadcasting, regardless. To his side, on a radio, the commander of the operation to capture the base adopts a different approach. On the same frequency as the military men, he exchanges insults with them.

In an onslaught of slurs, he accuses them of being Min Aung Hlaing’s guard dogs, and of being unfaithful to their country.

The soldiers respond with insults of their own. Cut off from the resupply of men and food, they stand their ground, firm in their belief that it is the military’s right – its destiny – to rule the country.

The ideological gulf between both sides is unbridgeable.

The carrot and stick approach continues for another 30 minutes or so, before the resistance fighters withdraw.

In his enthusiastic appeal for surrender Nay Myo Zin has inadvertently given away the men’s position (“I’m 400 yards away beside the loudspeakers,” he said), and they are worried about an artillery or mortar strike. Later that evening, the hillside takes a direct hit, without injuries.

Short grey line

This is more than just an ideological battle, it is a generational war. The young against the establishment, a new order fighting to break free from a tenacious old order. The connected versus a disconnected elite. The same youth who heard tales of failed revolutions and who have decided now is their time.

After half a century of military rule, Myanmar enjoyed a brief experiment with democracy starting in 2015 under Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy.

For many young people those years, though not without deep problems, marked an all-too-short golden age of freedom. The ballot box had failed them, then peaceful protest in the wake of the coup was met with killings and arrests. Many of those fighting told us there had been no alternative but to take up arms.

Thousands have abandoned studies and careers in major cities such as Yangon – doctors, mathematicians, martial arts fighters – and fled the cities to join established ethnic and resistance groups that had long opposed military rule.

On this front, all the fighters are under 25.

Nam Ree
Nam Ree aims a sniper rifle towards the enemy position

Nam Ree, a 22-year-old with the Karenni Nationalities Defence Force, KNDF, explains why he joined the resistance.

“The dogs [a commonly used insult for the military] have been unjust. They carried out an unlawful military coup. We, the youth, are discontented with it,” he says.

He is wearing flip flops, blue nail varnish, faded combat trousers and ammo belt across a Barcelona FC top. Unlike most of the men around him, he has a ballistic helmet. No-one has body armour.

The KNDF are a new force of young fighters and commanders which appeared after the coup. Ethnic armed groups have been fighting against the military in Karenni – also known as Kayah state – for decades. But the KNDF has brought them unity and battlefield success.

The tide turned against the junta on 27 October last year when an alliance of groups in the north of the country overran military positions and border crossings. Dozens more towns across the country have fallen since then into the hands of the armed opposition. The military still controls the main cities, but is losing control of the countryside and Myanmar’s borders.

The KNDF says it, and other insurgent groups, now control 90% of the Karenni state. It may be the smallest in the country but it has become a hardcore centre of resistance.

Maui Pho Thaike

Under the shade of a mango orchard sits the powerfully built, tattooed KNDF deputy commander, Maui Pho Thaike. An environmentalist who studied in the United States, he first picked up a gun three years ago.

He doesn’t recognise the military junta as a government, it is the oppressor of the country’s many ethnic regions, he says.

He says the whole country is now fighting the army.

“The strategies are changing. All the attacks are now co-ordinated,” he says.

The KNDF has no lack of fighters, but ammunition and weapons are in desperately short supply. Mostly the insurgency is funded by donations from the country’s diaspora.

“We do have enough heart, we do have enough morale, we do have enough humanity. That’s the way we’re going to defeat them,” Maui says.

A tattoo on his hand reads “free thinker” – from another time, when Myanmar was briefly on its thwarted move to democracy. Are you still a free thinker, I ask him. “In this uniform, no,” he replies. “But without this uniform, I’m a free man. And that’s our dream. We’ll create it again.”

Aung Ngle

To enter Myanmar is to travel not just to a forgotten war, but to country severed from the outside world. Much of the mobile phone network, internet and electricity has been cut off in Karenni state. The military may be on the back foot but their remaining bases control the main roads through the state.

A 60km (37 mile) drive from Hpasang further north to the town of Demoso took more than 10 hours across rutted dirt tracks, over hills and through rivers and valleys.

We arrived to the aftermath of a failed assault on a military base in the nearby town of Moebye, in which 27 members of the resistance had been killed.

In a jungle hospital, young men from the KNDF lie on hospital beds on dirt floors. Some smile and give a thumbs up, most are missing limbs.

Aung Ngle

Aung Ngle, 23, has a horribly swollen left leg after taking shrapnel to his femoral artery in the attack on the base. He is too ill to talk, but as he begins to weep, three of his comrades come to him, holding and comforting him. They won’t be able to operate. He will have to make the long journey to Thailand for further treatment. I ask a doctor if he will survive. “He will be fine,” he says. “But right now I think he’s depressed because he can’t fight anymore.”

In many respects, this is a conflict from another age, brutal and intimate. The fighting in Moebye lasted for days, at close quarters, with uphill frontal infantry assaults on the military’s bunkers.

One man has multiple injuries to his hands, legs and stomach. They were caused by a hand grenade, he says. They had gone to retrieve a commander who had been hit in the leg when it came in. “It was at close range – about 30ft,” he says.

The war has a slow ferocity, as we saw for ourselves when we travelled further north into southern Shan state, towards the town of Hsihseng. Near there, a counter-offensive was underway as the military tried to capture the route to Loikaw, the state capital, which also remains contested.

It is not their state, but the KNDF is in the lead under the command of a fighter called Darthawr. He, like many of his men, has been injured in previous attacks and a dark red scar peeks out from under the arm of his T-shirt.

“Defending this place for us is like defending our home,” he tells me. He is in shorts and flip flops and neither he nor his men have body armour. Nor do we.

As we stand on a low hilltop by a banana grove, he points out the military’s positions, 1.5km (0.9 miles) away. Shells begin landing nearby and there is a scramble to some shallow trenches. The shells, likely mortars, keep coming in, getting closer. A sustained exchange of automatic gunfire can be heard at close range – it sounds like the soldiers are far closer than previously thought.

It quickly becomes apparent that a group of soldiers is making its way through a minefield to our position. We leave, driving at speed as the shelling continues, a mortar striking the road directly ahead of the vehicles.

“Their troops got injured, and that’s why they are randomly shooting everywhere,” Darthawr explained.

KNDF Graduation

At a graduation ceremony on a baked-hard dirt parade ground cleared in the jungle, rank after rank of new recruits march past in formation. They salute the KNDF leadership, their rubber-soled canvas boots stamping up the dust. The young men and women – many just turned 18 – march to the beat of a song in English, “Warrior”. Its lyrics:

I am last to leave, but the first to go

Lord, make me dead before you make me old

I am a Soldier and I’m marching on

I am a warrior and this is my song

There are more than 500 – a record number of recruits. The ranks have been swollen after the junta, running short of men, enacted a conscription decree which sent young people in their hundreds fleeing to insurgent territory to join the revolutionary cause.

KNDF graduation
KNDF graduation ceremony

The last time I saw the troops, they were training with bamboo rifles. Now they have the real thing.

Their commander, Maui tells me that there isn’t much time for training. “Our strategy is like, we organised one month training, intensive training, then we go to fight.”

As the ceremony ends the mood is wild. A young rapper, MC Kayar Lay, who also graduated that day sends the fresh recruits into a frenzy of dancing and celebration.

It is difficult to predict where the uprising will lead. For both sides, this is an existential war and one increasingly marked by bloodshed and bitterness. There appears to be no going back.

After three and a half weeks, we were back in Hpasang. The army base, which had been about to be stormed by the resistance when I left, remained standing.

The military had tried to sent in reinforcements – some 100 men – but in a battle with the insurgents, 57 were captured, the rest fled or were killed.

The army failed to resupply the base but the encounter with the opposition forces had another consequence. It meant armed revolutionaries’ ammunition was depleted – and they no longer were able mount an attack on the outpost.

The day before we arrived, army war planes had bombed the hilltop overlooking Hpasang, killing three of the young fighters we had met earlier, and injuring 10.

Before, there had been music and singing from their positions on the banks of the wide Salween River, an almost relaxed willingness to wait out their enemy.

But now the mood had darkened – more appeals for surrender seemed unlikely. It would now be a battle to the death.

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NBTC boosts efforts to combat scammers

NBTC boosts efforts to combat scammers

A working group was established by the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission ( NBTC ) yesterday to implement a new policy to stop online scammers from stealing from mobile banking users.

The NBTC’s previous approval for the plan requires that the name of the bank account’s owner be the same as the name of the SIM card owner when registering a cellular phone SIM card.

The newly formed team comprises representatives from the NBTC, Anti- Money Laundering Office ( Amlo ), Bank of Thailand, Thai Bankers ‘ Association, mobile phone network operators and relevant state agencies.

According to Pol Gen Nathathorn Prousoontorn, director of the NBTC, the lenders will be gathering information regarding the ID or card numbers as well as the mobile numbers of those who have registered for a bank-provided mobile banking services.

He claimed that Amlo did receive the date information in an encrypted format for use and communication with the NBTC after it had been gathered.

The NBTC is in charge of resolving the problem involving the wireless network customer database and ensuring that the users ‘ names match those on the exchange service’s mobile phone number.

According to Pol Gen Nathathorn, the bank may receive feedback regarding the identification results, which may ask their customers to adhere to the new regulations in order to continue using the mobile banking services.

According to Pol Gen Nathathorn, an exemption will only be made in certain circumstances, such as when a person registers to apply mobile banks and mobile phone companies on behalf of their younger children or elderly parents.

Up to 2.13 million SIM cards were canceled after the date for people who registered to use 101 or more SIM cards per person to discover themselves in person to the NBTC after the date expired on February 14.

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Soft Space enables Tap to Pay on iPhone for stera tap iOS app in Japan

    Lovers with Sumitomo Mitsui Card Company and&nbsp, GMO Financial Gate, its shareholders

  • enables SMEs to use simple, safe wireless payment processing on an iPhone.

Soft Space enables Tap to Pay on iPhone for stera tap iOS app in Japan

The collaboration between Soft Space, a Malaysian fintech company offering payment services in Asia, and Sumitomo Mitsui Card Company, Limited ( SMCC), GMO Financial Gate, Inc. ( GMO- FG), SMBC GMO PAYMENT Inc. (SGP), and GMO Global, Inc. ( SMCC), announced that they have collaborated in Japan to enable Tap to Pay, an iOS app provided by GMO- FG.

One of Japan’s largest transaction processing firms, GMO- FG invested into Soft Space in March 2024. SMCC, which invested into Soft Space in April 2018, is one of Japan’s leading credit card companies. No information about the investment was made people. GMO-FG and SMCC collaborate on SGP.

With the company enabled, Japanese businesses can process contactless payments securely and simply using an iPhone. Only the iPhone and the” stera tap” iOS app with simple set-up are now available for merchants to accept contactless credit and debit cards, Apple Pay, and other digital wallets. Merchants can begin accepting Visa and Mastercard smart payments in as little as 15 minutes after submitting their software on the game itself. No extra equipment or pay terminals are required.

Apple Tap to Pay for Stevia Tap is something we’ve been anticipating ever since it first came out on March 25th, 2018, according to Joel Tay ( main pic ), CEO of Soft Space. We anticipate that Apple Tap to Pay’s entrance into Japan will encourage SoftPOS progress and give businesses and acquiring companies the confidence they need to begin introducing SoftPOS solutions to their merchants in large numbers.

After Soft Space introduced Tap to Paid in Australia in May 2023, Joel stated that Soft Space sees this success as the start of its global expansion strategy. It also serves as a testament to our ongoing commitment to facilitating digital societies. Above all, we think that this is a sign of the powerful synergy and knowledge between us and our trusted owners, SMCC and GMO- Hg, and a sign of the start of greater things to come.

Contactless payments are becoming more popular in Japan, with a figure of around 60 % of small and medium-sized enterprises ( SMEs ) accepting them. The trouble and expense of updating payment terminals has been a major obstacle for SMEs to accepting contactless payments.

An iPhone Item or afterwards device running the most recent version of iOS is required to use the Apple Tap to Give service.

Merchants will simply prompt the user to maintain their smart payment near the merchant’s iPhone at checkout, and the transaction will be safely completed using NFC technology, where Apple’s Tap to Give on iPhone technology uses the built-in features of the iPhone to keep the business and customer data private and secure.

When a payment is processed, Apple does n’t store card numbers or exchange information on the unit or on Apple machines. The privacy-conscious Chinese consumers may enjoy the safety features of the services.

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Billion-dollar money laundering case: Suspect gets new charges of using forged papers, having criminal proceeds

SINGAPORE: Lin Baoying, the single person among 10 suspects in Singapore’s multibillion- money money- fraud analysis, was on Tuesday ( May 21 ) handed seven fresh charges.

The new costs relate to bank-submitted frauds and suspected criminal money being in the hands of the suspects.

After the claims were tendered, Lin’s attorney Mr Chew Kei- han informed the court that she wished to confess innocent.

Lin therefore made a statement and requested an earlier hearing time for her plea. The 44-year-old Chinese national made an appearance via video website and followed the trials through a Mandarin speaker.

The new claims mean Lin is then accused of a total of 10 counts of infractions. Prior to this, she was accused of falsifying income documents for a home in Macau and of lying about how to prepare the sales agreement.

On Monday, the two classic fraud charges were changed.

Lin is currently accused of submitting a fictitious copy of a property sale agreement in Macau to justify deposits of nearly HK$ 122. 5 ( US$$ 15.7 million ) in CIMB Bank accounts and HK$ 75 million in HK Standard Chartered Bank accounts.

In addition to the forged property sale documents that she is accused of submitting to UOB Kay Hian and the Oversea- Chinese Banking Corporation ( OCBC ) as part of the new charges, she is also accused of assisting OCBC in defending deposits of HK$$ 12.5 million across both accounts.

She is accused of having nearly HK$ 210 million, which she claims to have been divided between her four bank accounts, and is suspected of having at least some judicial funds.

Additionally, she allegedly conspired with two Liu Kai and Li Hongmin to defraud Bank Julius Baer & Co. by using one Liu Kai and one Li Hongmin to falsify a duty pay document.

Lin may go back to court on Thursday for a pre-trial meeting.

Her companion, Zhang Ruijin, 45, was sentenced to 15 months ‘ prison after pleading guilty to three charges in April for his part in the money- trafficking activity.

Last August, the pair was detained in a home along Pearl Island in Sentosa Cove.

Prior to this, the prosecution claimed Lin had a teenage girl who lived with a domestic helper in Beach Road and a separate girl who lived in Sentosa.

The combined assets between Lin and Zhang came to about S$ 325 million &nbsp, ( US$ 240 million ), with Lin having the larger share of the pie, a court previously heard.

The situation is the largest money-laundering probe in Singapore and likely one of the biggest money-laundering activities in the world because more than S$ 3 billion in property have been seized or frozen in relation to it.

Six of the ten offenders have received convictions and sentences ranging from 13 to 15 months in prison. More than S$ 540 million in assets have been seized from the position thus much.

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A first glimmer of hope for China property – Asia Times

Economists currently think China’s latest plan to stop its house crisis is too little, too late – again.

However, the original wondering behind it, which is basically a state-backed apartment-buying spree, is giving rise to the possibility that Xi Jinping’s group could be on the verge of a breakthrough in taming negative risks.

The package announced Friday includes a People’s Bank of China ( PBOC ) 300 billion yuan ($ 42 billion ) lending facility for enlisted state companies to gorge on finished- but- unsold housing.

” The deal does represent a major development in the administration’s response to the home crisis”, says Andrew Batson, an analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics. The chances of a remedy really arriving are now much higher, but the answer is n’t still here.

According to Batson, it’s fair to call the plan” an early downpayment on the recent promise of a new approach” to stabilizing a sector that traditionally generates one-fifth of the country’s gross domestic product ( GDP ).

Many people were offended by the news because it was a clear answer to house sales that were up 28.3 % year over year in the January to April period. New house prices&nbsp, dropped 0.6 % in April fortnight on fortnight, marking the 10th consecutive decrease and the biggest since November 2014.

” All this bad news seems to have suddenly triggered a sense of urgency that’s powerful enough to push content motion”, researchers at Société Générale said.

No serious or large enough, though, numerous economists and analysts say.

Building is slowing quickly as the stock of unsold homes and unoccupied land is at its highest level in years, and default risks are rising among developers, from big state-owned companies to smaller personal builders.

To be sure, initiatives are still being made to make challenges similar to those in China Evergrande Group a thing of the past. Some experts believe Beijing should make much more ambitious efforts to create a house crisis-ending war chest.

Goldman Sachs scientist Lisheng Wang, for instance, thinks that deploying$ 1 trillion would only get China’s excellent housing supply back to 2018 rates.

According to Wang, “any game-changing cover easing actions, including those for accommodation destocking,” would likely require significantly more money than is currently available.

Scientist at Morgan Stanley Stephen Cheung adds that” we think the effect on house sales and home rates remains extremely uncertain” despite authorities ‘ turning more dovish on housing policy. With a funding gap below what was anticipated, the inventory-clearing effort may fail.

Despite this, the focus of this most recent work suggests that Xi’s Communist Party is working toward a more effective strategy to revive a business essential to consumer and business confidence.

As long as Team Xi continues down this path, Chief China analyst Larry Hu of Macquarie Group describes the decision to buy empty houses as “positive.” ” Looking forward, the key is&nbsp, when and at what level the central government may offer a funding resource”, Hu says.

Carlos&nbsp, Casanova, scholar at Union Bancaire Privée, concludes that” all things considered, we believe that a delicate takeoff of the real estate business may be achieved in the second half of 2024. Even some of the more negative academics have acknowledged that subsequent actions suggest a potential solution to the housing crisis.

” Although this growth demands attention, owners should be careful, as the way forward is expected to be long, challenging and riddled with hurdles”, Casanova adds.

Chen Wenjing, an analyst at China Index Holdings, claims Beijing’s decision to lower mortgage interest rates and repayment rates to historic lows reflects a new dedication to maintain the sector.

According to Chen, “lowering the down payment level and home purchase charges for people will likely increase their willingness to buy homes.”

For enthusiasm depends on how quickly Premier Li Qiang and Xi deftly overcome those challenges. Casanova claims it’s important that regional governments have been removing macroprudential controls with the covert support of the main government.

According to him, authorities repealed the country’s minimum mortgage rate while lowering the down payment requirement for first-time homeowners to 15 % and 25 % for second-time homeowners.

In first-tier locations, weak sentiment is the main culprit, especially in desirable school districts and upper-middle-class areas, never overcapacity. International owners, however, are paying close attention to large amounts of empty houses amid falling trust.

According to data from the 100 largest real estate companies, new home sales decreased by roughly 45 % in April from the previous month to 312.2 billion yuan ($ 44 billion ). That came after the March average dropped by 46 %.

The odds that Xi’s staff may “expand the size may possibly be exciting”, says analyst&nbsp, Karl Chan&nbsp, at JPMorgan Chase. Although we’re still unsure about whether the range is large enough to cause a healing, this appears to be the best course of action.

The history here is essential, Batson says. ” What broke down in half- 2021, with the fiscal strains of big private- field developers, was household confidence in the presales system, a problem more equivalent to a bank run”, he explains.

In the same way that bank depositors do n’t want to risk losing their money to a troubled bank, mainland homebuyers today do n’t want to risk that a troubled developer wo n’t be able to provide the housing they have demanded. The longer this dynamic drags on, the more it undermines confidence.

Therefore, stabilizing the supply side of the housing market, i .e. the developers, while at the same time supporting the demand side, which is made up of households, is essential for an effective policy response.

To Batson’s mind, a series of failed initiatives to stabilize real estate have been hamstrung by three problems.

One, a hyper- focus on the demand rather than supply side. Two, a disinclination to provide sufficient scale of direct financial support from the central government. Three opaque attempts to boost the market that only have a small positive effect on confidence.

” Friday’s announcements mark a step forward on all three fronts, although these issues have not yet been completely overcome”, Batson says.

Tao Ling, the central bank’s deputy PBOC governor, stated at a press conference on May 17 that commercial banks should encourage local state-owned businesses to purchase unsold, unrestricted homes and convert them into social housing.

The initial 300 billion yuan ($ 42 billion ) provided by the&nbsp, central bank could&nbsp, deliver about 500 billion yuan ($ 69 billion ) of credit to accelerate stabilization efforts, the PBOC official said.

Additionally, on May 17, Vice Premier He Lifeng, who serves as the chief coordinator for economic policy, stated that local governments are being given the authority to allocate funds to developers.

This will be accomplished by repurchasing residential property that was previously sold to developers and increasing commercial housing inventories. The intention of the plan is to provide a clear floor for distressed developers and properties.

This policy change could significantly alter households ‘ perceptions of developers ‘ financial prospects, according to Batson, by sending a clear political signal that the government is not sat idle while developers go into bankruptcy.

The only drawback is that Beijing frequently attempts to change mood through signaling rather than direct financial support. The property sector is supported by the PBOC’s fourth new lending facility. And none of the previous three gained much, if any, traction.

According to Batson, “banks have generally been unwilling to accept the credit risk of more lending to property,” even with cheap funding to increase their profit margins.

The bigger issue, though, is Xi and Li ensuring implementation this time around. That requires a bold and obvious shift away from putting security before economic advancements.

Over the past two years, Xi’s team has stuttered from pledge to pledge to develop a plan to dramatically lower the ranks of developers while removing toxic assets from their balance sheets.

Investors have long been speculated about Beijing adopting a Resolution Trust Company-like model similar to the one used by the US to address the 1980s ‘ savings and loan crisis.

Making good on Xi’s promises to prioritize the quality of growth over its quantity would help Xi’s reform team disorient the critics and resurrect China Inc.

And it would change the perception that China is determined to fix the mistakes Japan made in the 1990s during its bad-loan crisis, leading to the deflationary lost decade that the nation arguably has never fully recovered from.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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Volatility is cheap – Asia Times

Subscribe now&nbsp, for access at a special price of only$ 99/year.

Volatility is low

According to David P. Goldman, market volatility is at sudden highs, aside from gold rates, which suggests that central banks have a plan to build up their assets, such as China. He advises using buying volatility to hedge portfolios against political shocks.

Russia tries to overextend Russian forces in Kharkov drive.

James Davis evaluates Russian actions to launch a new front in the Kharkov area. Moscow’s intention appears to be to create a buffer zone and thinn Russian forces, possibly launching a southern offensive.

Biden’s great tariffs and China’s retribution

Scott Foster writes that the US Commerce Department’s steps against China, like as revoking Intel’s license to sell chips to Huawei, have harmed American firms ‘ profits and market opportunities, probably Intel in the line of fire.

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China unveils property stimuli amid falling sales – Asia Times

After falling in house sales and purchase in the first four months of this year, China released an extraordinary bundle of measures to encourage homebuyers to enter markets on Friday. &nbsp,

The People’s Bank of China ( PBoC ) said it will establish a nationwide program to unleash 300 billion yuan ( US$ 41.5 billion ) in cheap funding to help state- owned- enterprises ( SOEs ) buy unsold homes.

The minimum down payment ratios for first-time purchases were reduced from 20 % to 15 %, and second-time purchases were reduced from 30 % to 25 %, according to the PBoC and the NFRRA. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Additionally, it stated that first and second home loan rates will be abolished nationwide at the lowest rate possible. &nbsp,

According to the central bank, central bank branches is then set lower mortgage rates in accordance with local circumstances. Financial corporations should set the minimum borrowing costs based on their business climate and customer threats, it remarked.

From May 18, the PBoC may also reduce the mortgage rates of the individual accommodation retirement account, a long-term cover savings plan made up of required regular deposits by both employers and employees, by 0.25 percentage points.

Stocks of the Hong Kong-listed Chinese engineers increased on Friday after many of them more than doubled in value during the week that ended Thursday. &nbsp,

Shares of China Vanke Co increased 19.4 % to close at HK$ 6.84 (88 US cents ) on Friday while shares of Sunac China rose 25.9 % to HK$ 1.85. &nbsp,

Agile Group gained 24.3 % to 92 HK cents while Guangzhou R&amp, F Properties surged 12.7 % to HK$ 1.33. &nbsp,

Poor house figures

Meanwhile, the National Bureau of Statistics ( NBS ) released new economic data for January- April 2024 on Friday.

In the first four weeks, China’s estate investment fell 9.8 % year- on- yr to 3.09 trillion yuan. For the 23rd subsequent month, the number has been declining.

In January-April, investment in residential real estate decreased by 10 % to 2.34 trillion yuan from last year.

New home sales fell 28.3 % to 2.81 trillion rmb for the same time. New home sales slumped 31.1 %. &nbsp,

New home sales size decreased 20.2 % to 293 million square feet. New home sales level decreased by 23.8 % year over year.

In April, the average home price in 70 largest Chinese cities fell 3.1 % from a year ago, according to the NBS. It’s the biggest year-on-year drop since November 2014, in terms of terms of year on year.

” March and April are a classic great time, but both new house sales and sales volume have decreased year-on-year over the course of that time, demonstrating how severe the Chinese home markets are right now,” said Wang Xiaoqiang, chief scientist with the Zhuge Real Estate Data Research Center. &nbsp,

Wang claimed that new home sales volume in the first four months of this year decreased by 26.4 % from the same time last year, when most Chinese cities still adhered to Covid laws.

Zhang Hongwei, founder of Jingjian Consulting, said property activities may improve if some urban commercial banks start offering mortgage borrowers10- 20 % discounts in the coming few months. &nbsp,

SOE home purchases&nbsp,

He Lifeng, the vice president of China, stated at a teleconference on Friday that the government will make more efforts to address the risks associated with unfinished commercial housing projects, ensure the delivery of housing projects, and encourage the reduction of property inventory in the markets.

He claimed that local governments are permitted to purchase unsold homes at fair prices and turn them into affordable or rental housing units.

In the upcoming year, 21 national banks, including China Development Bank, policy banks, state-owned commercial banks, Postal Savings Bank of China, and joint-stock commercial banks, will be given loans worth 300 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.75 %, according to PBoC Deputy Governor Tao Ling. The period of time can be extended four times. &nbsp,

She stated that the central bank will provide loans to national banks to cover 60 % of the scheme’s lending, allowing them to lend SOEs an additional 200 billion yuan, increasing the total to 500 billion yuan.

She suggested that national banks should grant loans to SOEs designated by local governments in accordance with market rules, while local governments should make their own decisions about whether to join the scheme.

” The SOEs for home purchases will be designated by local governments”, Tao said. ” They must not be local government financing vehicles ( LGFVs ) or companies related to local governments ‘ shadow financing” .&nbsp,

China’s total local government debt, including LGFV loans and shadow credit, was about 90- 110 trillion yuan, or 75- 91 % of the country’s GDP in 2022, according to a research report published last November by the 21st Century China Center of the School of Global Policy and Strategy at the University of California San Diego. &nbsp,

Read: China to reboot markets with SOE home purchases

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China to reboot markets with home purchases – Asia Times

China is considering a nationwide initiative to reduce supply in real estate markets by urging local institutions to buy from frightened property developers ‘ empty properties.

According to Bloomberg, the State Council is seeking suggestions from various regions and government organizations regarding a proposal that may require local institutions to purchase millions of homes that have already been sold.

The People’s Bank of China’s proposed trial scheme, which set aside 100 billion yuan ($ 13.85 billion ) for special lending to local governments in eight cities, would use the funds to purchase unsold properties for use in local subsidized rental programs, in February 2023. &nbsp,

The eight places are Chongqing, Jinan, Zhengzhou, Changchun, Chengdu, Fuzhou, Qingdao and Tianjin. &nbsp,

The city government in Lin’An, Hangzhou, announced on Tuesday that it would buy some 10, 000 square feet of private residences and convert them into rental accommodation units. &nbsp,

The Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee meeting on April 30 recommended a global home-purchase program, which would promote high-quality property development, reform the country’s house development model, and promote high-quality property market development. &nbsp,

The meeting made reference to what it called the urgent need to evaluate the supply and demand dynamics in the real estate markets in order to meet the expectations of consumers.

On Friday night, the State Council will hold a video seminar with senior representatives from the cover government, economic officials, local institutions, and banks to explain the housing market. &nbsp,

According to Wang Yi, mind of the Asia Pacific real estate team at Goldman Sachs Research, “it may take a month from now to reduce sellable products to a stage that the business would probably perceive as “balance,” without government interference. We think that a persistent decline in housing prices could result in a negative feedback loop caused by further contractions in credit supply and overall demand.

She claims that as of the end of last year, the inventory of residential properties in mainland China was estimated to be costing about 30 trillion yuan ( US$ 4 trillion ). She claims that the cost of fully building that property will be ten times the amount of housing stock at the end of 2023, or one-fourth of the total. &nbsp,

She claims that there is a significant inventory overhang because the industry needs to be fully funded to return to its pre-normal operating levels in 2024.

Slow progress

If they have 20 % down payments, local governments ‘ urban investment firms can borrow bank loans at a 3 % interest rate to purchase unsold homes, according to the trial program in eight Chinese cities.

However, such a deal is not very attractive because rental yields can typically be just around 3 %. And if home prices decline, urban investment firms could lose money. &nbsp,

As of early this year, loans totaling only 4.1 billion yuan have been taken out in four projects.

The trial program’s progress, according to Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Guangdong Planning Institute’s residential policy research center, is slow because urban investment companies are reluctant to enter markets in a property down cycle. &nbsp,

He suggested that urban investment firms could begin by purchasing some of the unsold properties in a project that has already sold more than 70 % of its apartments, allowing the developers to move on and concentrate on creating new ones. &nbsp,

An urban investment firm can try to arrange for the existing buyers to purchase elsewhere, he said, and then it can immediately buy the project. A project can only have sold a small number of its apartments.

” Whether the government’s plan to reduce property inventory will succeed depends on the demand side”, said Yan Yuejin, research director of Shanghai E- House Real Estate Research Institute. ” The overall pace of inventory reduction remains slow, despite the gradual increase in property sales.

Yan claimed that property developers have delayed their marketing plans as a result of the slow property demand. He claimed that 55 % of the new homes for sale in the top-tier cities ‘ markets were launched in 2023 or earlier, compared to 68 % in third-tier cities. &nbsp,

Purchase limits

Some analysts believe that local governments ‘ home-purchase initiatives must be combined with a number of other supportive measures to demonstrate some effects. &nbsp,

Other ways to reduce property inventory, according to Zhang Bo, director of the 58 Anjuke Research Institute, include urging homeowners to relocate to larger homes and lowering purchase restrictions. &nbsp,

In April, dozens of Chinese cities made the announcements of their “new properties for old” initiatives, which promise to buy homeowners ‘ existing properties as soon as they move into new ones. &nbsp,

Since May 9, a dozen second- tier cities including Hangzhou, Xian and Fosan have announced, separatelly, their decisions to cancel their property purchase limits – most of which have been implemented for more than a decade. &nbsp,

It means that people can now purchase as many properties as they want in most second-tier cities. Shanghai and Beijing, two of the top tier cities, still have purchase restrictions in place to stop speculative activity. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Over the past one week, shares of most property developers, including the heavily- indebted ones, have surged significantly. &nbsp,

Shimao Group Holdings ‘ stock increased by 160 % to close at HK$ 1.25 from May 8. China Aoyuan shares are now 26 HK cents, which is a double increase.

Agile Group’s shares increased 42 % over the past week after the announcement of the default of its publicly issued dollar bonds on Tuesday. &nbsp,

Read: Unleashed bank deposits misused in Chinese economy

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