ICAEW: Q1 2024 economic growth in Southeast Asia and Malaysia buoyed by electronics exports, but cautious outlook remains

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  • Indonesian exports are anticipated to grow as the electrical cycle bottoms out.
  • In the second quarter of 2024, Malaysia is anticipated to take advantage of the electronics treatment.

ICAEW: Q1 2024 economic growth in Southeast Asia and Malaysia buoyed by electronics exports, but cautious outlook remains

The electronics sector is a positive force for Southeast Asia’s economy, according to a report from Oxford Economics that was commissioned by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales ( ICAEW). The region is projected to grow by 4.0 % in 2024 and 2025. Nevertheless, this is below the pre-pandemic average of 5 % in the previous five years, mostly as a result of anticipated difficulties in private use as interest rates rise more.

ICAEW: Q1 2024 economic growth in Southeast Asia and Malaysia buoyed by electronics exports, but cautious outlook remains

The report argues that Southeast Asian electronics-focused exporters gained a better grip in Q1 2024, in large part as a result of the technology sector’s bottoming out. It said the treatment in global silicon sales, which saw a 15.3 % year- on- yr increase in Q1 2024, has mainly benefited Vietnam, where export growth soared to an estimated 16.8 % year- on- year. Singapore also experienced a rise in non-oil home exports in April with an estimated 9.4 % month-on-month growth, which is a good turn after two consecutive weeks of collapse, intermittently adjusted.

Given its position farther down the electrical value chain, Malaysia is anticipated to benefit from the gadgets healing in the second half of the season. However, Southeast Asia’s electronics industry’s enhance is still less encouraging than those of Taiwan and South Korea, two other major Asian silicon players.

ICAEW: Q1 2024 economic growth in Southeast Asia and Malaysia buoyed by electronics exports, but cautious outlook remains

International tight monetary policies are likely to measure down additional need for the region’s exports, making recovery reasonable, the report stated, adding that the global growth forecast of 2.6 % for 2024, lower than pre- pandemic levels, did likewise lessen local export growth.

On the positive side, Southeast Asia’s tourism sector has experienced steady visitor growth since November 2023, partially as a result of various visa-free travel arrangements with China. This has resulted in more frequent intraregional travel within Southeast Asia. However, supply- side constraints, such as limited flight capacity and a shortage of hotel rooms, could hinder the region’s ability to fully meet resurgent tourist demand. As a result, the recent rapid growth in tourist arrivals is likely to decelerate.

Domestic consumption faces near- term challenges

In the report, domestic consumption in Southeast Asia was stronger than anticipated in Q1 2024. However, it is unlikely to spur economic growth in the upcoming quarter because regional tight monetary policy is anticipated to restrain consumer spending.

Southeast Asian central banks ‘ options for easing monetary policy are likely limited by the persistent weakness of local currencies in relation to the US dollar. The strong US dollar, driven by the Federal Reserve’s high interest rates, prevents local central banks from cutting rates without risking further currency depreciation. In Q1 2024, Bank Indonesia was even forced to raise rates to arrest the rupiah’s decline.

Due to the tight monetary policy in place, debt servicing and borrowing costs will continue to be high, likely limiting private consumption. Additionally, the research found that many consumers and businesses are continuing to consolidate as they are recovering from the pandemic and are likely to concentrate on quickly rebuilding their savings or refining their balance sheets.

Governments are coordinating at the same time to reduce spending and raise taxes in order to offset pandemic-related fiscal payouts. Indonesia is planning to raise taxes in 2025 after Singapore and Thailand both raised taxes this year. Malaysia intends to change the second half of the year’s RON95 subsidies from a blanket policy to a more judiciously targeted approach.

With the US Federal Reserve’s forecast for rate reductions in Q3 2024, there is still a glimmer of hope. This could lessen regional currency pressure, allowing Southeast Asian central banks to ease their monetary policies.

Malaysia: Q1 2024 economic growth buoyed by electronics exports but cautious outlook remains

In Q1 2024, Malaysia experienced a notable economic upturn, with GDP expanding from a revised 2.9 % year- on- year in Q4 2023 to a robust 4.2 %, coupled with a remarkable 1.4 % quarter- on- quarter growth in seasonally adjusted terms, effectively reversing the 1.0 % contraction observed in the previous quarter. This positive momentum, however, faces challenges in sustainability.

The remarkable rise of 9.7 % quarter over quarter in exports, primarily fueled by the resurgence of Chinese tourists during the Chinese New Year holiday in February, was a significant driver of growth. This resurgence can be attributed, in part, to the bilateral visa- free arrangement initiated in December 2023. Nonetheless, there are doubts regarding the longevity of this surge, as initial boosts tend to fade over time.

Retail sales volumes also experienced a notable recovery, rising 4.4 % month over month in February after four consecutive months of decline. However, this resurgence appeared to lose steam in March, with retail sales growing only by 0.7 %. Despite a strong labor market and historically low unemployment rates, there are beginning signs of softness, as evidenced by stuttering new job growth and slowing wage growth, which could point to a potential future moderation in consumer spending.

According to the research, domestic demand is anticipated to remain flat or even decline, as demonstrated by recent budget plans that intended nominal spending reductions. In addition, fuel subsidies are being reduced to reduce the deficit in order to increase the public debt-to-GDP ratio. Investment, particularly within the industrial sector, is likely to face constraints amid the prevailing uncertain external environment. &nbsp,

Exports are expected to grow modestly in the external sector in 2024, despite a subdued global demand. Malaysian exports are anticipated to benefit from the anticipated bottoming out of the electronics cycle, but this impact may not be fully realized until the second half of the year as a result of the country’s position within global supply chains.

The significant discount of the Bank Negara Malaysia’s ( BNM) policy rate in relation to the US Federal Funds rate was a major contributor to the Malaysian ringgit’s struggles in Q1 2024. The currency’s weakness hinders BNM’s ability to ease policy, which has been hovering below 2 % for the past six months and showing little sign of significant increase. This issue persists until the US Federal Reserve starts making rate cuts, which are anticipated to occur in Q3, easing the ringgit’s pressure and potentially allowing policy rate adjustments. &nbsp,

While Malaysia’s Q1 2024 GDP growth showcased resilience, primarily supported by robust electronics exports, the economic outlook remains cautious due to challenges in both domestic consumption and external demand. Although there are still questions about global economic conditions and domestic policy responses, Bank Negara Malaysia is confident that there are upside risks from greater spillover from the tech upcycle, more robust tourism activities, and faster implementation of existing and new investment projects. However, the Malaysian economy is expected to experience modest growth throughout 2024.

ICAEW: Q1 2024 economic growth in Southeast Asia and Malaysia buoyed by electronics exports, but cautious outlook remains

In summary

  • Malaysia’s GDP grew by 4.2 % year- on- year in Q1 2024, supported by electronics exports.
  • Due to challenges in domestic consumption and the state of the world economy, the outlook for sustained growth is still uncertain.
  • Government decisions and supply-side constraints continue to have an impact on Malaysia’s economic dynamics.

&nbsp, Other findings from the Economic Update Q2 2024 include:

Singapore: Trade- weighted economy will remain subdued

  • Singapore’s GDP grew 2.7 % year- on- year in Q1 while seasonally adjusted Q1 GDP grew slightly by 0.1 % quarter- on- quarter.
  • Singapore’s economic momentum is likely to be subdued, despite strong electronics exports.
  • This year’s overall growth will likely remain slightly below the previous year’s trend, as evidenced by soft domestic demand.

Indonesia: Shift in monetary policy likely to be delayed

  • Indonesia’s economy grew by 5.1 % year- on- year in Q1 2024, up from 5.0 % in Q4 2023.
  • Domestic consumption, both in the private and public sectors, continues to drive resilience, with the latter likely bolstered by election- related spending.
  • The external sector will be a drag, given soft global growth. Lowering external demand and sideways trade figures will also impact business investment.
  • Bank Indonesia is anticipated to hold rates until Q4 2024, with a potential 25 basis point rate cut following the US Federal Reserve’s rate cut.

Vietnam: A soft 2024, but a bright medium- term outlook

  • Vietnam’s real GDP grew by 5.6 % year- on- year in Q1 2024, down from 6.7 % in Q4 2023.
  • Exports remained robust in early 2024, driven by electronics and agriculture.
  • Poor sentiment, capital deployment, and consumption are expected to remain drags, with credit growth at its joint- slowest in 10 years as of March. Year- to- date credit growth, or the amount of loans from commercial banks, was only at 1.3 % year- on- year in March after two months of negative figures.
  • As Vietnam benefits from the reshuffling of the structural supply chain from China, which will likely increase economic momentum gradually in H2 2024, it is likely to experience a gradual improvement in economic momentum, which will draw in foreign direct investment.

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Man nearly loses S0,000 to scammers impersonating bank staff, police officer

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SINGAPORE: A man came close to losing S$ 250, 000 ( US$ 185, 000 ) after falling prey to scammers posing as a bank staff member and a police officer.

The 56-year-old was first called from a bank employee who was acting as a scammer on June 6, according to a police press release on Friday ( Jun 14 ).

He was informed that his credit cards had a suspicious transaction.

The visit was then relayed to a “police agent,” who claimed the man had been target of identity theft and had frozen the money in his bank accounts. &nbsp,

The “police agent” gave the man instructions to help with the analysis by creating an online Standard Chartered bank accounts and transferring$ 250,000 from his other bank accounts to the new account. &nbsp,

The gentleman was also instructed to provide the new account’s password and login information because the bill was being looked into by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

After complying with the demand, the person told his family about the event. He eventually realized he might have been defrauded and reported the incident to the police. &nbsp,

According to the Singapore Police Force ( SPF), officers from the Anti-Scam Centre were called in and Standard Chartered’s anti-fraud team immediately halted online banking and suspended the bank account, preventing any fund movement. &nbsp,

” Due to the sharp answer, the total amount of S$ 250, 000 was recovered”, SPF added.
 
The police emphasized that authorities officials do not demand that people make bank transfers or give out personal information via text messages or phone calls. &nbsp,

SPF continued, adding that government officials from different nations do not have the constitutional authority to compel Singaporeans to take these steps. &nbsp,

At least S$ 13.3 million was lost in December reportedly in February as a result of government official imitation schemes.

Government agency SMSes will be sent using a second sender ID, known as gov, to protect against frauds. sg, instead of the specific companies, from Jul 1 onward. &nbsp,

Anyone who has data relating to schemes can call the police at 1800- 255- 000 or send it electronically. &nbsp,

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Bangladesh sets contractionary budget, cuts growth target | FinanceAsia

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Bangladesh has proposed a contractionary funds in the legislature for the macroeconomic time 2024-25 starting July 1, 2024 in the face of unflinching global economic conditions and a significant dollar absence. &nbsp,

 

Additionally, it anticipates being heavily rely on foreign debt for development projects and to borrow heavily from the finance industry.

 

The budget was put in place on June 6 by Bangladesh’s finance minister, Abul Hassan Mahmood Ali, who had been widely criticized for having no effective strategies to lower inflation, which had been at a high rate of 10 % for more than a year, causing severe pain for lower-mid-income groups of people as the condition deteriorated since the end of the war in Ukraine.

 

Only a few weeks after the local currency experienced a sizable depreciation against the US Dollar following the introduction of a” crawling peg” system to determine the exchange rate, the BDT7.97 trillion ($ 68 billion ) budget was agreed. This was in line with the International Monetary Fund’s ( IMF)’s ) recommendation to stop foreign currency reserves from falling as they were free.

 

Currently Bangladesh has just$ 18.6 billion of foreign currency reserves, according to the IMF’s computation method. However, the online trading supply now stands somewhat over$ 13 billion, hardly enough to cover three weeks’ of goods.

 

The government was forced by the paltry forex reserve to substantially reduce imports over the past few years, which negatively impacted business outputs and increased inflation.

 

Progress target&nbsp,

 

For the next fiscal year, the finances has proposed a 6.75 % fiscal progress, which economists and economists predict is not possible. The government has predicted 5.8 % growth at the end of the fiscal year while its initial growth goal was 7.5 %.

 

The government has also set a goal to reduce the current rate of nearly 10 % to 6.5 % in the upcoming fiscal year. The federal has planned to lower import duties on big, important commodities in order to achieve the target. The finance minister, a moment after presenting the budget to parliament, at a article- budget media briefing, but said, people will have to wait until next December to get the rate of inflation down to a” reasonable limit”. &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp,

 

However, the economists ruled out the possibility of sluggish prices because they believe a duty cut on commodities alone would not be effective in lowering prices. Moreover, they believe the government, in the funds, has announced to change energy oil prices four times a month to reduce rebate spending, fuel prices will go further up in the coming days leading to the further escalation of inflation. A rise in fuel prices always leads to higher prices for other goods and services.

 

The finance minister’s proposed budget has a deficit of BDT 2.56 trillion, which accounts for 4.6 % of the nation’s gross domestic product ( GDP ). The finance minister wants to use domestic and foreign borrowing to pay off the deficit. Of the total, some BDT1.61 trillion will be borrowed from domestic sources of which BDT1.375 trillion will come from the banking sector.

 

Non- performing loans

 

Already Bangladesh’s banking sector is plagued with non- performing loans worth BDT1.82 trillion, the highest in the history of Bangladesh. Additionally, billions of taka are encased in the courts as loan defaulters are sued by banks. &nbsp,

 

Five banks with poor financial health are set to merge with five relatively strong banks to avoid closure, in another sign of trouble. Exim Bank would acquire Padma Bank, Sonali Bank would acquire Bangladesh Development Bank, Bangladesh Krishi Bank would acquire Rajshahi Krishi Unnayan Bank, National Bank would buy United Commercial Bank, and City Bank is set to acquire BASIC Bank in accordance with potential merger plans, while City Bank is set to acquire BASIC Bank.

 

To support development projects, the government has set a goal of borrowing BDT970 billion from abroad in the upcoming fiscal year. With external debt already exceeding$ 100 billion in March, the target is viewed as very high. As the conflict in Ukraine continues, the world economy struggles, and Bangladesh is failing to permit the repatriation of profit by foreign investors due to its severe dollar dearth, economists fear that foreign direct investment will decline in the new fiscal year. &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp,

 

Businesses believe that excessive government borrowing will dry up resources, which means that the private sector may not be able to grow their businesses. Employment generation will also be hindered severely, with the rate of unemployment increasing.

 

” The excessive borrowing by the government from the banking sector hinders the credit flow to the private sector”, Mahbubul Alam, president, Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry ( FBCCI), said in a reaction.

 

There is no directive in the proposed budget on how to help maintain local industry, especially given the country’s rising cost of doing business, according to Anwar Ul Alam Chowdhury, president of the Bangladesh Chamber of Industries (BCI).

 

The leading think tank, the country’s Centre for Policy Dialogue, claimed that the government did not take into account the impact of the proposed budget’s ongoing macroeconomic policy adjustments.

 

” The inflation projection for FY 2025 certainly appears to be overambitious”, the CPD said.

 

Dr. Salehuddin Ahmed, a former governor of Bangladesh’s central bank said, the proposed budget will fail to meet various targets as it does n’t have enough “bold steps”.

 

¬ Haymarket Media Limited. All rights reserved.

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China’s property fixes leave investors in suspense – Asia Times

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” The China capital deal is back”. Or at least but says Société Générale, which reckons Beijing’s current efforts to fix the house crisis has moved Asia’s biggest sector beyond the” trust problems” that dominated China’s market tale in 2023.

A fair watch? The jury is still out as to how China’s home stocks last year entered a professional keep market amid concerns Beijing is n’t acting desperately or bravely enough to maintain the sector.

Although the US$ 7 trillion investment market retreat from a 2021 optimum to January 2024 may be over, buyers are still paused by the extreme volatility in Shanghai and Shenzhen areas.

Yet so,” the market is starting to get some assurance that the earnings crisis is coming to an end, as the latest earnings time appears to suggest”, says Wei Yao, mind of Asia- Pacific research at Société Générale.

” Unlike the revenue growth of 2 % – 1 % ex- financials – in 2023, the weakest since 2020, the consensus revenue growth estimate of 4 % – and 7.5 % ex- financials– for this year is closer to the GDP growth forecast and looks plausible, in our view”, Yao says, citing Beijing’s 5 % economic growth target.

Some see related perks emerging. ” We see China’s companies gaining momentum, particularly if stimulus policies meet marketplace anticipation”, adds Jonathan Fortun, scholar at the Institute of International Finance in Washington DC.

The government’s recent announcement to stabilize the struggling property sector, which has historically contributed up to 25 % of GDP, is the main driver.

Recent moves to revive the sector include prodding&nbsp, local&nbsp, state authorities to purchase unsold&nbsp, properties&nbsp, and reducing the amount home buyers need for a deposit.

According to Kelvin Wong, senior analyst at currency broker Oanda,” This latest set of positive macro data suggests the piecemeal stimulus measures from China’s top policymakers are working to stop the deflationary risk spiral that has been triggered by the significant slowdown inherent in the domestic&nbsp, property&nbsp, market.”

Logan Wright, economist at Rhodium Group, says “it’s reasonable to expect” that construction activity” will stabilize soon”.

However, the fact that shares of Chinese developers are now down more than 20 % from their peak in May suggests that investors still believe Team Xi needs to work harder to restore confidence.

Despite all the talk of Xi and Premier Li Qiang rolling up their sleeves to promote property,” there has n’t been a clean-up,” says Natixis economist Alicia Garcia-Herrera. ” China looks more like Japan than the US or Spain,” the author claims.

On the property front, Premier Li Qiang and Chinese President Xi Jinping still have work to do. Image: NTV / Screengrab

Will local governments in China experience a crisis similar to that that afflicted Japanese banks in the 1990s? This is still a question. Beijing’s slow pace of action could mean a “longer, more protracted adjustment”, Garcia- Herrero says.

Analysts at Bank of Communications Co predicted that recent policy changes would increase sales by more than 1 trillion yuan ($ 138 billion ) in a report released last week.

The reason investors might take notice, says Tracy Chen, a portfolio manager at&nbsp, Brandywine&nbsp, Global, is that China’s latest “property market rescue package is focused more on risk management than engineering another property boom. It aims to achieve multiple goals, including boosting housing demand, reducing housing inventory and supporting developers”.

Those steps include land buybacks by local governments, which will purchase excess land from developers at “appropriate” prices. While funding will come from special bond issuances, land can be used for low-cost rental housing. Bottom line: In the event of tight financial conditions, municipalities will be encouraged to purchase land.

Next, stepped up inventory reduction. Local governments will be compelled to purchase additional housing stock through local, state-owned organizations and convert it to affordable rental housing. Then, as a result of relaxed home loan requirements, will there be more funding for unfinished projects.

These include record lows, with minimum down payments being cut by another 5 percentage points to 15 % for first homes and 25 % for second homes, both of which are marked by record lows. There are no longer any restrictions on the maximum mortgage interest rates.

The rescue package is a step toward stabilizing China’s real estate market, but Chen says Chen’s success depends on overcoming significant difficulties and restoring households ‘ confidence in buying new homes. ” However, the stimulus may fall short again due to the size of the supply problem. The inventory purchases ‘ scale, funding, and implementation are ambiguous and underwhelming.

Hence, Chen adds,” the rescue package is not a game- changer yet. Foresightful and obstinate policies are required for the supply of housing in mountainous regions. Policymakers need to go big to revive homebuyers ‘ confidence. The scope of the property inventory supply issue likely will derail China’s economy’s growth for years to come, despite a more substantial intervention.

Raymond Yeung, chief Greater China economist at Australia &amp, New Zealand Banking Group, notes that Team Xi could be” treading a tightrope” if the move to reduce mortgage rates “fails to revive demand”. Because a lower downpayment ratio increases the risk of negative equity in the sector overall.

This is more compelling just for Xi to implement even more drastic reforms. As Xi’s policymakers attempt to deleverage the economy, they must find a more difficult balance. Beijing may experience internal pressure to hit the gas again as global headwinds increase in terms of fiscal and monetary stimulus.

” China’s economy is marred by insufficient domestic demand”, says Emily Jin, an analyst at advisory firm Datenna. ” For years, analysts have urged Beijing to boost consumption’s role in China’s economy, to little avail. The 5.2 % increase in consumer demand in 2023, largely attributable to a low base effect from pandemic consumption levels, may not hold up until 2024.

To be sure, China’s deflation is cheering many bond investors. In early March, yields on 30- year bonds hit a record low of 2.4 %. Yet Beijing’s fiscal spending plans– and its debt issuance plans – mean Xi and Li must tread carefully.

China, for example, is selling a record 1 trillion yuan ($ 138 billion ) of ultra- long- term bonds, more than two times the average issuance between 2019 and 2023.

Beijing still needs to work to create a long-term rally in stocks, though. However, recent efforts to encourage local governments to buy apartments could have a significant impact on reducing deflationary risks.

The effort “does represent a significant evolution in the government’s response to the property crisis”, says Andrew Batson, an analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics. ” The solution is n’t here yet, but the&nbsp, chances of a solution&nbsp, actually arriving are now much higher”.

It’s reasonable, Batson says, to call the plan” an early downpayment on the recent promise of a new approach” to stabilizing a sector that generates a disproportionate amount of China’s economic growth.

Construction is slowing down significantly, and default risks are rising among developers, from big companies like state-owned companies like to smaller private companies, with the stock of unsold homes and empty land at their highest levels in years. Efforts are still being made to make China Evergrande Group default risks a thing of the past.

The Evergrande Center building in Shanghai. Photo: Asia Times Files / AFP / Hector Retamal

In recent months, the People’s Bank of China has enabled lending facilities to gorge on finished- but- unsold housing, but more arguably needs to be done, analysts say.

Any game-changing housing easing measures, including those for housing destocking, would likely require significantly more funding than is currently available, according to Goldman Sachs ‘ Lisheng Wang.

However, the solution to the housing oversupply will be more important than the amount of liquidity in the system. That implies that any adjustment will ultimately require balancing the needs of developers and the supply side of the housing market with efforts to support the demand side of the economy.

A number of failed government initiatives to stabilize real estate, as Batson sees it, have been undermined by three issues.

One, a hyper- focus on the demand rather than the supply side. Two, a disinclination to provide sufficient scale of direct financial support from the central government. Three, opaque efforts to boost the market, which have limited the positive impact on confidence.

Although these issues have not yet been fully resolved, recent policy shifts “mark a step forward on all three fronts,” Batson claims.

Thus, the focus of the entire world is on what Chinese leaders will do next. Putting aside the occasional green shoot, global investors are still concerned about the deflationary strains still having an impact on the economy.

The PBOC runs the risk of letting deflationary forces fester without taking decisive action, as Japan would have it done. Another is that Beijing’s officials may be overly optimistic about the state of world demand.

In response, many global funds are also investing in trust- but verify crouch as Beijing announces more stimulus and increases manufacturing to revive the economy.

According to analyst Xiao Jinchuan of Guangfa Securities Co., the question is whether” the roll-out of policies like the large-scale equipment upgrade will continue to support demand for the manufacturing sector.”

Looking at China’s manufacturing growth, says Jeremy Mark, a senior fellow at the Geoeconomics Center of the Atlantic Council, it’s safe to “assume that much of that expansion is likely to go straight to exports”.

Defeating deflation, though, requires bold moves on the supply side, too. The stock rally China bulls like Société Générale are anticipating are currently still outnumbered by the wait-and-see bears as Xi and Li signal further moves to clean up the property sector.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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Vietnam’s record-breaking bank rot reeks of 1997-98 – Asia Times

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Vietnam, which is known for having the largest financial heist of all time, is the target, you must hand it to, because it has somehow managed to create a scandal that dwarfs the 1Malaysia Development Berhad ( 1MDB) scandal.

Asia is still aghast a century later because of the 1MDB disaster. The effects of the theft of at least US$ 4.5 billion from a position growth portfolio continue to stifle parliamentary and business relationships in Putrajaya and Kuala Lumpur.

The Saigon Commercial Bank (SCB) scams that cost more than$ 12 billion caused Vietnam to become a world hot button for all the wrong reasons. The largest corruption case in South Eastern history replaces the “mini-china” myth that featured factory jobs and international financial power gushing at Hanoi.

The incident highlights large cracks in Vietnam’s bank system, spurring calls for tighter regulations, stronger evaluation mechanisms and increased conformity. It’s even a significant blow to the reputation of Communist Party chief Nguyen Phu Trong, whose “burning burner” anti-corruption campaign has defined his rule.

Obviously, his anti- transplant efforts have been at best blended. Next time, perhaps Vietnam’s leader was felled by a corruption scandal, along with a long list of various higher- profile officials. The death sentence handed down to tycoon Truong My Lan, the head of Van Thinh Phat Holdings Group, for her role in the siphoning of SCB funds has n’t been resolved, which raises more serious questions about the extent of Vietnam’s decay.

According to S&amp, P Global Ratings scientist Ivan Tan, the celebration has revealed both major breaches in business management at the provider and decisive action by the central bank to keep sector stability.

It’s possible, Tan adds, that the “central bank’s fast actions contained the fallout from SCB. The lender is now under state control. Before it could escalate and undermine depositors ‘ confidence in the banking sector, the authorities immediately curbed a run on the institution.

According to Fitch Ratings, SCB’s stumble “does not present new contagion risks to the banking system.” The banking sector’s ‘ bb ‘ operating environment score has reflected Vietnam’s evolving standards of corporate governance and financial supervision”.

The State Bank of Vietnam ( SVB), the nation’s central bank, deployed tidal waves of support to SCB. ” SBV’s actions demonstrate its high propensity to provide support to systemically significant institutions, even when a bank’s stress results from its own governance failures“, Fitch says.

However, the market calm may be temporary. ” Although not quite in Bernie Madoff’s league, the scandal ranks as one of the biggest in financial history”, says Tom Miller, analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics.

Truong My Lan, chairwoman of Van Thinh Phat Holdings Group, was sentenced to death on April 11 by the Ho Chi Minh City People’s Court. Photo: X Screengrab

The bank official who was sentenced to death is just “one of 86 people prosecuted”, Miller noted. ” The case shone a second spotlight on Hanoi’s anti- corruption campaign, which last month also brought down Vietnam’s president”.

The timing is rather unwelcome, as&nbsp,” Vietnam is one of the big winners of global derisking, perfectly positioned to gain from US- China rivalry”, Miller adds.

As supply chains continue to diversify away from China, Vietnam’s global share of goods exports is growing. It is moving up the value chain, with sales of phones, electronics and machinery having overtaken those of rice, coffee and T- shirts. Now, the US is wooing it with the promise of investment in semiconductors.

Foreign direct investment is rising, fueled by greenfield investments from China and Hong Kong. ” Behind the FDI statistics, however, the picture is less bright” ,&nbsp, Miller says. ” The anti-corruption crackdown threatens to prevent Vietnam from reaching its economic potential,” the phrase reads.

GDP growth “limped” to 5 % last year, below the 7 % average of the past three decades, Miller notes.

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh says “dramatic action” is required to hit this year’s target of 6.5 %, with growth in the first quarter coming in at 5.7 % and slowing down from 6.7 % in the fourth quarter of 2023.

The bigger concern, Miller adds, is that political infighting causes delays in capital projects for several more years as growth deviates. Although Vietnam’s structural outlook is positive, its leaders are not currently implementing the steps required to meet their long-term goals and avoid the dreaded middle-income trap.

The question now, of course, is how Vietnamese officials implement badly needed reforms going forward.

” In the long run, if they can clean up the market, removing toxic and illegal business practices, that will be good for the economy as a whole and something that investors should welcome”, says Le Hong Hiep, a senior fellow at the ISEAS- Yusof Ishak Institute.

That’s a big “if”, though. &nbsp, Vietnam’s smokestack economy, communist politics, dense population, low labor and land costs, near- 7 % annual growth rates over the last 10 years and physical proximity explain the “mini- China” label.

As a result of US tariffs on China and company sanctions, Vietnam’s largest economy was forced out of the country by the dynamic.

Vietnam, however, also has some complex baggage. There is little doubt that Vietnam will eventually have a middle- to upper-income status. Investors are completely aware of how Hanoi will move there because it heavily relies on large, state-owned companies and emulates China’s export-led model.

In its haste to move upmarket, though, Vietnam is still too prone to “pendulum economics”. Investors ‘ opinions on the country’s prospects range from irrationally optimistic to wildly depressing.

The$ 408 billion economy crashes every five years as a result as foreign capital moves even more quickly than it did. Reducing these swings ‘ frequency must be a key area of focus for policy changes heading into 2025.

One reason for this is that exchange rates seem to be a bad thing. The SBV’s obsessive management of the dong often earns Hanoi a place on the US Treasury Department’s” currency manipulator” watchlist. Its trade-dependent economy also finds itself on the frontlines of a burgeoning US dollar, which has left traders buzzing about the ’97-like vibes in the Asian air.

Look no further than Asian central banks, which are easing cycles without warning because they fear their currencies will fall. The longer the US Federal Reserve avoids easing aggressively, as investors expected, the more Asian policymakers will have to recalibrate monetary strategies.

Asian central banks will be cautious in adding to currency depreciation pressures, according to economist Priyanka Kishore of consultancy Asia Decoded,” with higher US interest rates likely translating into a stronger US dollar for longer also.” They will continue paying more attention to the Fed as they begin their easing cycle, even though they will still lean on to market measures to manage foreign exchange weakness.

Vietnam also runs the risk of getting caught in the middle of trade tensions between the US and China.

” In Vietnam’s case, 13 % of all imports are electronics from China, including robots, consumer electronics, home appliances, electronic components and telecommunications equipment”, says Dave Chia, economist at Moody’s Analytics.

” Decoupling risks loom large for these sectors, as illustrated by bans in some of the region’s countries, as well as further afield, on telecommunications equipment made by China’s Huawei Technologies Co out of national security concerns”, Chia says

The government of Chinh’s government needs to revive the process of economic reform. Since 1986, when Hanoi instituted its” Doi Moi” market reform process that skeptically rejected a Marxist command economy, the US-China trade war has had a significant impact on Vietnam’s growing global presence.

Vietnam’s status as one of the world’s poorest countries was changed due to the market reorientation, which made it a lower-mid-income country today. The momentum it generated, according to the World Bank, increased per capita income sixfold in less than 40 years, from less than$ 600 in 1986 to roughly$ 3, 700 now. The poverty rate plunged to 4.2 % at the end of 2022 from 14 % in 2010.

As Andy Ho, chief investment officer of VinaCapital Group, points out, Vietnam’s “rapidly” developing economy means “most of the population is benefitting”.

Andrew Amoils, analyst at advisory New World Wealth, tells CNBC that Vietnam could see a 125 % increase in wealth over the next 10 years. That would represent the largest increase in millionaires and GDP per capita in any other comparable nation.

However, such advancement wo n’t be possible without Hanoi’s periodic swings in the economy. And if Communist Party officials make efforts to improve rather than just grow more quickly. That includes reducing bureaucracy, boosting innovation and productivity, strengthening human resources, and combating the type of institutionalized corruption that the SCB mess exemplifies.

A wider crackdown on corruption might lead to even more uncertainty. Long-term, the anti-corruption campaign to combat illegal behavior should increase economic efficiency and strengthen Vietnam’s reputation as a hub for foreign investment and manufacturing.

An employee piles sheafs of Vietnamese bank notes at a money exchange shop in Hanoi, 13 November 2006. The drive for free trade emerged 19 November as the early focus of the annual Asia-Pacific forum as senior officials opened a week of talks in Vietnam ahead of a summit of leaders from 21 key economies. AFP PHOTO/LIU Jin / AFP PHOTO / LIU JIN
Vietnam’s pendulum economics attract and repel foreign investors. Image: Asia Times Files / AFP / Liu Jin

” However”, says S&amp, P’s Tan,” these efforts may also generate pain points. As the bureaucratic process adapts to the new standards of enhanced scrutiny and accountability, the initiative may slow administration and approval procedures.

Gavekal’s Miller adds that” the campaign has had an unfortunate side effect, throwing sand into the machinery of government. Public procurement has been stalled because officials are too anxious to make decisions out of fear of inciting scandal and imposing penalties.

Before 2017, Miller points out that Vietnam had done a respectable job of building its infrastructure, but the construction has slowed in recent years. ” As in so many emerging economies”, he says,” Vietnam has discovered that a little corruption had helped to grease the wheels of commerce”.

Yet at least one thing is clear: no matter how quickly the economy appears to be moving, the fact that Vietnam just produced a scandal that tops 1MDB by many multiples suggests that all is not well under the hood.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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High potential startups unveiled at the MyStartup Pre-Accelerator Cohort 3 Demo Day 

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  • 5 companies were selected as best winners&nbsp,
  • The third group included 26 businesses from a variety of industries.

Winners from the MyStartup Pre-Accelerator Cohort 3

After more than 16 days of intensive mentoring and consultations, the MyStartup Pre-Ameriator Cohort 3 and Growth Charger celebrated development and growth at its leading Demo Day. The program also recognized the cohort’s high-potential companies after they successfully completed proof-of-concept patterns while developing and verifying concepts and business models.

A total of 26 startups spanning various industries of green tech, bright life, kindness, and digitalisation were selected to participate in the programme’s second cohort spearheaded by Cradle and MyStartup. At the Demo Day, twelve champion companies pitched their business tips to an audience of fellow entrepreneurs, instructors, potential investors, and the greater Malaysia business community, including a screen of ten judges comprising business leaders such as Cradle, Maybank, Cyberview Sdn Bhd, Dana Impak, Tuas Capital Partners and The Hive Southeast Asia, Jewel Digital Ventures, MBI Selangor, Orbit Malaysia, Origgin Ventures, and SBI Ventures Malaysia.

As the event concluded, five startups were selected as the top winners. The companies include:

1. ScancerAI: A company that utilises advanced AI for early lung cancer detection through chest X- ray analysis, aiming to revolutionise diagnostics. This approach was aided in part by Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia’s expertise.

2. Practistica: A startup that streamlines assignment creation, grading, and analysis for teachers. It features a large database of high- quality questions where teachers can drag- and- drop to create assignments, grade objective and subjective questions, and use analytics to focus on each student’s weaknesses.

3. Stay WokeProperty: A marketplace for long- term property rentals. It has a unique value proposition that focuses on assisting property owners in renting out quickly and avoiding the hassle of rental collection and maintenance.

4. FinDoc: An AI- driven online credit screening and advisory platform. FinDoc offers personalized advice to improve credit health and address financing needs for borrowers and recommends the best financial products. For agents and banks, it acts as a lead generator.

5. Beseek: A quick-to-use tool for analyzing content that includes qualitative analysis, such as identifying key highlights and analyzing gaps between private data and public knowledge.

Norman Matthieu Vanhaecke, group CEO of Cradle Fund Sdn Bhd, reiterated the crucial roles startups play in the ecosystem and the agency’s commitment to developing a high- performing, inclusive, and sustainable startup ecosystem in the country. We launched the first cohort in 2022 to help guide and coach early-stage startups and increase their growth potential. More than 100 Malaysian startups have benefited from the programme, with most startups expanding their market and adopting technology- led solutions such as advanced AI to revolutionise diagnostics, blockchain, and online interactive web platforms. For this cohort, we are proud to support all 26 participating startups, each utilising unique technology, data, and intelligence to develop viable proofs of concept that meet market needs and bridge existing gaps”.

” We would like to congratulate the winning teams, finalists, and all participating startups. We hope to equip these innovators with a solid foundation, and we look forward to their continued impact in their respective industries”, he added.

Additionally, Syed Haizam Jamalullail, managing partner of Tuas Capital Partners and The Hive Southeast Asia, who is also one of the judges, expressed admiration for the talent and innovation that can be found at the MyStartup Pre- Accelerator Demo Day. All 12 startup founders displayed exceptional quality, blending creativity, strategic vision, and entrepreneurial spirit. These startups are clearly growth-driven and ready to launch their ventures despite being in their early stages.

We at The Hive Southeast Asia look forward to seeing how successful these talented entrepreneurs will be in the future, he continued.

Shamsuddin Salleh, founder of ScancerAI and one of the top five startups, described the programme as instrumental in realising his innovative ideas, preparing the business for market entry, and opening doors for future collaborations”. Building a startup is a challenging but incredibly rewarding journey. Apart from embracing feedback and being open to pivoting your approach, a supportive network of mentors, peers, and advisors is critical. The program’s extensive mentorship, networking opportunities, and access to industry experts were essential in advancing ScancerAI to the next level.

Through the pitch clinic sessions, which have helped us refine our business model and strategies,” we have gained valuable insights into various aspects of startup development from the workshops and coaching sessions,” he continued.

In addition to taking home US$ 1600 ( RM7, 500 ) each and gaining recognition, the top five startups will join the MyStartup Market Access Programme. They can establish connections and communicate with key ecosystem players and potential partners around the world through this program. GrowthCharger will also continue to support these startups after the program by facilitating strategic ecosystem connections and granting access to foreign investors.

Startups selected for this cohort have benefited from individualized mentorship and one-on-one guidance from experienced entrepreneurs, which each cohort member has received over the course of four months. They also have benefited from using MyStartup and Growth Charger’s resources and global network.

Since the onboarding session, which was held last March, these innovators have been given multiple opportunities and perks, including exclusive networking events with global mentors and partners, invitations and group visits to innovation hubs, market research access, and channels to funding opportunities.

More than ten experts who served as mentors for the third cohort of the program come from a variety of backgrounds and have special expertise in various fields of expertise, but all come together with a shared commitment to positively shaping the next wave of entrepreneurs.

An initiative by the Ministry of Science, Technology &amp, Innovation, powered by Cradle, the MyStartup Pre- Accelerator aims to propel early- stage and pre- seed startups through a flexible yet comprehensive programme. This third iteration of the program, which is in line with the Malaysia Startup Ecosystem Roadmap 2021- 2030 to bring together every important player in the community to create a scalable, sustainable, and inclusive startup ecosystem, continues to be a beacon of opportunity for aspiring entrepreneurs looking to accelerate their business growth.

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Boost Bank launches pioneering embedded digital bank app to Malaysian

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  • Customers can look forward to the bank’s future Bank Card, already in the pipeline
  • promises to be one of the few M’sian businesses to accept new customers without having any prior records.

Left to Right:: Mohd Rashid Mohamad, group managing director/group CEO of RHB Banking Group, David Lau, chairman of Boost Bank, Fozia Amanulla, CEO of Boost Bank, Vivek Sood, group CEO and managing director of Axiata Group Berhad and Sheyantha Abeykoon, group CEO of Boost

The launch of Boost Bank by Axiata and RHB ( Boost Bank ), a homegrown digital bank approved by Bank Negara Malaysia and the Ministry of Finance, with a pioneering embedded onboarding journey, made the announcement that the app, which is now officially accessible to the public. &nbsp,

The bank said in a declaration that all present advanced budget users on the Boost app application will be able to start a Boost Bank account in a smooth recruitment process. This places Boost Bank at the forefront of integrated banks, which seamlessly integrates with Malay ‘ everyday routines.

One of the few banks in Malaysia that will let users who do n’t already have bank accounts digitally sign up is Boost Bank, claims the company. This goes against its original intent to reach out to the underprivileged and underserved segments of society.

As the first digital bank in the market to combine the technology-first mindset of a finance with the confidence and security of a sizable financial institution, Boost Bank and RHB Banking Group ( RHB) have a strategic relationship. Users can expect the best of both worlds thanks to this interaction, which combines the encouragement and dependability of a well-established banking institution with the innovative financial solutions delivered with the dexterity of a fintech.

The lender will use lovers that it has grown with to market its ideas in addition to Boost Bank’s habitat. Customers can anticipate some relationship promotions in the upcoming months across both West and East Malaysia, including CelcomDigi, Mydin, and Bataras Sdn. Bhd., Cks Retail Sdn. Bhd., Farley (KCH) Sdn. Bhd., Servay Hypermarket ( Sabah ) Sdn. Boulevard Hypermarket and Departmental Store Sdn., and Bhd. &nbsp,

Through these collaborations, the lender said it will provide rewards and discounts on daily necessities to match the financial requirements of the underbanked and vulnerable. Customers who transact with its release partners you anticipate higher special interest rates to be announced quickly, too. &nbsp,

According to Boost, it has an existing and honor- winning loyalty program for many years, known as the BoostUP Loyalty Programme, that has been well- received in the market. As one of its crucial value ideas, it is launching a fresh special rank called” Platinum President” for customers who open a Boost Bank account and fulfil certain conditions. All users need to do is simply deposit a minimum of US$ 426 ( RM2000 ) into the Boost Bank’s Savings Jar and/or Savings Account, where they can receive a promotional daily interest rate of up to 3.6 % p. a. from now until 31 August.

After the promotional period, the regular conventional Savings Jars interest charges will be 3.2 % p. a. for Platinum President people. After the two apps are linked, those who achieve the Platinum President status on the Boost Bank application may be automatically upgraded to the highest position on the Boost paytm app in order to receive up to 3x Increase Stars for every ringgit spent on qualified transactions.

Users who embrace our online bank have the unique opportunity to skip to Platinum President, even those in lower ranks, said Boost.

Moreover, there will be forthcoming partnership offers and more benefits with one of our launch partners, Mydin, in the coming weeks that could allow users to earn higher promotional interest rates while receiving partner gains on Boost Bank’s lovers ‘ saving bottles. DuitNow transfers can be made using funds from the Boost Bank app, including to the Boost eWallet app, where they can be used to make national-wide QR code payments and online transactions.

Loyalty Rank

Boost Bank’s Savings Jars Daily Interest Rate ( Weekly Return )*

Boost eWallet app’s Boost Star Earnings*

Platinum President with Partner Benefits

Higher promotional interest rates are on the horizon.

3x on eligible transactions

Platinum President

3.6 % p. a. from 6 June to 31 August, during promotional period

( Standard rate: 3.2 % )

3x on eligible transactions

All Other Loyalty Tiers

1.5 % p. a.

( Fast- track to Platinum President rank after depositing RM2000 )

1x on eligible transactions

Furthermore, in compliance with regulatory standards, each deposit is protected by the Perbadanan Insurans Deposit Malaysia ( PIDM) for up to US$ 53, 200 ( RM250, 000 ). Users can be assured that their funds have a safety net even in unanticipated economic crises or unforeseen circumstances thanks to PIDM.

To safeguard users ‘ accounts, the Boost Bank app has implemented the’ Freeze Account’ for emergency situations,’ Device Binding’ for access control, and ‘ Cool- Off Period’ for new device logins, as part of its comprehensive security measures. As an added layer of defence, the digital bank is also supported by a 24/7 Fraud Hotline at 60162999831. Users can quickly and conveniently access their accounts thanks to these safety measures if they suspect unauthorized malicious activity.

&nbsp, Vivek Sood, group CEO and managing director of Axiata Group Berhad, said,” At Axiata, we are dedicated to growing an inclusive and robust digital banking ecosystem in Malaysia. The launch of Boost Bank is a significant step in improving Malaysia’s ability to access financial services.

He continued, stating that the company’s goal is to make the digital banking landscape more accessible to those who have no access to traditional banking and contribute to a more diverse digital society. ” Boost Bank will therefore add financial products to the already-described fintech features of the Boost eWallet app. As Axiata moves forward with our Telco-TechCo journey, we will continue to focus on expanding our offerings to consumers through digital businesses and creating long-term value for our shareholders, according to Vivek.

Meanwhile, Sheyantha Abeykoon, group CEO of Boost, said:” Today marks a pivotal moment at Boost, as we fully realize our vision of becoming a full- fledged digital bank, and become the first in market that integrates embedded banking effortlessly, and is a testament to the robust fintech ecosystem and track record of excellence we’ve established. Boost Bank is poised to offer an unmatched banking experience that intuitively integrates into our users ‘ daily lives, meeting their needs and developing deep, meaningful relationships by drawing on various learnings from across our business.

He continued,” Our ongoing innovations and strategic partnerships serve as the foundation for this transformative vision,” stating that the company envisions a future where financial empowerment is guaranteed for everyone.

&nbsp, Fozia Amanulla, CEO of Boost Bank, added:” This journey, years in the making, culminates in a moment of immense pride for our innovative team as we successfully launched Boost Bank. A commitment to pioneering a movement where everyone benefits from access to financial tools that are both as simple and as-effective is at the heart of our innovation. Through our synergy with Boost’s technological expertise and RHB Banking Group’s rich legacy, we are offering more than just banking services, but a financial journey that’s seamlessly integrated and profoundly accessible”.

Mohd Rashid Mohamad, group managing director/group CEO of RHB Banking Group, stated:” Boost Bank represents more than just digital banking, it signifies the creation of a resilient and inclusive financial ecosystem. We are collaborating with Boost to create a strategy that embraces innovation and addresses changing customer needs, particularly those in underserved and underserved areas.

He added that by giving customers access to agile and, more importantly, secure digital financial services, the Boost Bank app will help fill in financial inclusion gaps. In line with our Sustainability Strategy and Roadmap, which aims to empower more than two million people and businesses across Asean by 2026, Mohd Rashid said,” This endeavor underscores RHB’s unwavering commitment to enhance our digital propositions and fostering financial inclusivity for all Malaysians.”

Boost Bank will expand its digital bank app features and solutions as the digital bank industry grows to better meet the needs of all Malaysians. The Debit Card is a upcoming product development that is already in the pipeline and that users can anticipate.

The Boost-RHB Digital Bank Consortium, in which RHB owns the remaining 40 % of the company’s equity and Boost holds the other 60 %, was one of the five successful license applicants announced by BNM in April 2022, and it formally reopened its doors on January 15, 2024, with official regulatory approval.

For more information, please visit Boost Bank’s website here. The Boost Bank app can now be downloaded from the Google Play Store and the Apple App Store.

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