New Indonesia fund rings early alarm bells on Prabowo – Asia Times

Indonesia’s powerful state-owned enterprise ( SEO ) sector is on the verge of a major shake-up as the new Prabowo Subianto administration attempts to reshape the nation’s economic system.

On November 7, Prabowo’s state is expected to release information about a new super-holding organization for SOEs and another government-controlled finances to become known as the Daya Anagata Nusantara Investment Management Agency, or Danantara.

While the novel company’s specific mandate and work is unclear, the management has promoted the idea it will serve as an Indonesian version of Temasek, Singapore’s effective sovereign wealth fund.

But, feedback from the public and in-the-know sources suggest Danantara could be something entirely different, with some hesitant to accept it as a direct investment in the government’s name projects without going through the customary Ministry of Finance budget arrangement approach.

Fears about the proposed shake-up focus on two key points. First, while Danantara’s scope is unclear, it will likely overlap heavily in numerous areas with Indonesia’s existing sovereign wealth fund, the Indonesian Investment Authority ( INA ), and the Ministry for State-Owned Enterprises helmed by Erick Thorir.

Next, there are concerns that the move may aim to lead State resources toward idealistic political priorities, including his energy security, completely student lunch and food security policies, as well as potential patronage of political allies, given that the new holding company appears to be under the authority of the national office.

However, according to sources with knowledge of the situation, top SOE ministry officials were immediately notified when plans for the new holding company first appeared on October 22.

Burhannudin Abdullah, former chancellor of the Bank of Indonesia and part of the advisory committee for Prabowo, who was then president-elect, made the first proposals to reform the SOE government and create a very keeping company in a speech on September 25.

However, the sudden announcement that this concept would be put into practice still irritated many people. Many assumed that Thorir, a billionaire and influential political operator, would continue to play a significant role in bringing together and rationalizing the SOE sector under Prabowo. He was reappointed to the position he had held under President Joko Widodo.

The announcement of an apparently parallel organization, with scant details about its remit, has thrown all this into doubt. Thorir continued to appear obnoxious on Danantara as of November 4. ” I do n’t know exactly. When reporters inquired about the new holding company’s plans for November 8th, he replied,” I’m just setting up the office.”

In Indonesia, SOE control is a particularly powerful position. In 2023, SOEs controlled US$ 671 billion in assets, equivalent to 48.9 % of the country’s gross domestic product ( GDP ), in sectors spanning energy, mining, finance, agriculture and construction.

In addition to running big businesses in key sectors, Indonesia’s SOEs carry out government policies as varied as distributing subsidized fuel and food, to building new infrastructure projects, to making micro-loans to the poor. They are a potent source of patronage because of their ability to appoint people to fill positions and distribute contracts.

So what’s likely behind Danatara’s creation? Muliaman Hadad, who will head Danantara and formerly served as chair of Indonesia’s financial services authority, invoked both Singapore’s Temasek and Indonesia’s INA as models for the fund in recent comments to the press.

The analogies appear to be intended to reassure markets, even though they use very different strategies: the former focuses heavily on overseas assets plus a few strategic Singaporean companies, and the latter more on co-investing with large foreign funds in Indonesian infrastructure. Both Temasek and INA are reputable institutions that are renowned for having good governance and technocratic management.

However, initial reports and information from a variety of sources point to the possibility that Danantara will turn out to be something quite different. According to reports from Katadata, Danantara will control Indonesia’s seven SOEs, which are currently the biggest dividend-payers.

These include three big state-owned banks, namely Bank Mandiri, Bank Rakyat Indonesia and Bank Negara Indonesia, monopoly electricity distributor PLN, oil and gas giant Pertamina, telecoms conglomerate Telkom Indonesia and mining giant MIND ID.

There are also rumored plans to combine the reputable INA with Danantara, which could cause a potential cultural conflict between bureaucrats and private professionals. The INA has invested in a portfolio of private companies and SOEs with an emphasis on infrastructure, including Bank Mandiri and Bank Rakyat Indonesia.

Some special investment vehicles under the Ministry of Finance’s control, including perhaps Indonesia Infrastructure Guarantee Fund ( IIGF ) and Indonesia Infrastructure Financing ( IIF), may also come under Danantara’s control.

Some investors and analysts worry that the new super-holding company will add yet more bureaucracy and special interests to navigate and placate. Additionally, there are concerns that the new entity might undermine existing relationships that INA has with numerous large international investment, pension, and sovereign funds.

Moreover, Hadad’s appointment to head Danantara has raised certain concerns about the body’s governance.

Hadad served as Burhanuddin’s deputy when the latter oversaw payments of about$ 10 million to members of parliament and paid the legal fees for former central bank officials who were facing corruption charges when they were governor of the Bank of Indonesia.

One of those officials assisted in this way was Sudrajad Dwjiwandono – Prabowo’s brother-in-law. Burhannudin was later found guilty and given a five-year prison sentence for his actions.

There are already several indications that Prabowo wants to appoint loyalists in key positions in the SOE sector.

On November 5, it was announced that Simon Aloysius Mantiri, a member of Prabowo’s Gerindra party and deputy treasurer of his presidential campaign, would be the new CEO of the state-owned oil and gas giant Pertamina.

According to critics, more political appointments of this sort would be made through Danantara, which would increase presidential control over SOEs.

By resigning Indonesia’s trusted finance minister, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, and indicating that he could reduce funding for some of his signature policy promises, Prabowo earlier sought to calm market concerns about his robust spending plans and governance.

That did n’t address concerns about his big boat cabinet, the largest ever since the mid-1960s with some 48 ministers and 56 vice-ministers. The appointees are notably heavy on economic technocrats and heavy on political party leaders. &nbsp, &nbsp,

How markets will react to Nanantara’s creation is still unclear. However, as Prabowo’s vision for the fund becomes clearer, the sudden and, in many ways, suspect move taken so early in his term could well rekindle those market jitters.

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Money Talks Podcast: The ins and outs of owning a property overseas

For instance, like UK, everyone can buy and sell it. It’s a completely marketplace. But… in Australia, you can only buy a new built property, meaning you ca n’t buy a resale. Just Singaporeans and Australians can currently purchase a home in New Zealand.

Knowledge of the rule of law and tax laws, because unfortunately, when you buy and sell, what are your mark duties, which are your acquisition costs, your property tax, continued costs, capital gains tax, and other related taxes, or resettlement of profits, are what are your tax obligations. &nbsp,

Andrea: 
But when it comes to buying property in Singapore… we can utilize our CPF. Obviously, we ca n’t do that for our property overseas. How would you recommend clients to help them finance this outside property? &nbsp,

Clarice: 
Buyers should definitely practice caution and research the financing methods available to them before proceeding to make a decision to invest in a specific city or country. There are overseas property investment mortgage available even from the local banks here in Singapore, such as DBS, UOB, OCBC, Maybank. There are also financing options available from the specific countries that I’ve mentioned.

But generally speaking, customers do have a lot of home loans available to them, but this is only for purchase.

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United Nations Development Programme tie-up to bolster climate change resilience


Efforts are being made to strengthen Thailand’s ability to deal with the increasing threat of climate change.

Thailand has collaborated with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) under a project called “increasing resilience to climate change impacts in marine and coastal areas along the Gulf of Thailand”.

It is funded by a US$3 million (101.2 million baht) grant from the Green Climate Fund.

Launched in August 2020, this four-year initiative is intended to develop solutions to address Thailand’s climate change vulnerability, with Rayong, Phetchaburi, Surat Thani and Songkhla chosen as pilot areas.

Key partners in the project include the Department of Climate Change and Environment (DCCE) and the Department of Marine and Coastal Resources, both under the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment.

Phirun Saiyasitpanich, director-general of the DCCE, said Thailand is vulnerable to climate change impacts and was ranked 9th among countries most affected by extreme weather events during the period 2000-2019 by the Global Climate Risk Index Report in 2021.

The increasing impact of extreme climate events such as rising sea levels, storms, flooding, heatwaves and shoreline erosion is creating stress on biodiversity, marine life and resources, mangroves, seagrass, and coral reefs along coastal provinces.

Climate change impacts are also posing a threat to local tourism, agriculture, fisheries, and aquaculture and natural resources, he said.

In light of this, Thailand is working to help marine and coastal areas and communities along the Gulf of Thailand to build resilience to climate change impacts.

The UNDP says the project has developed climate adaptation measures to help boost Thailand’s long-term climate resilience.

They include a climate-risk projection platform called the Thailand Adaptation Platform, available on the DCCE website.

This platform provides access to data on climate change risk projections, vulnerability assessments, and a training manual on climate adaptation planning.

Other measures included the creation of marine resource banks, the construction of sand fences to combat shoreline erosion, and the preservation and replanting of mangroves to protect vulnerable areas.

Mr Phirun said the data collected and best practices developed under the project will also be introduced to other vulnerable coastal provinces to help them build climate change resilience.

During the four-year implementation of the project, provincial and local agencies in the four provinces have been equipped with the ability and knowledge necessary for informed planning for climate change adaptation, he said.

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Five Singapore-based firms sanctioned by the US for enabling Russia’s war effort

UNILATERAL, BUT CARRY WEIGHT

“Unlike United Nations’ sanctions, US sanctions are unilateral,” explained S Rajaratnam School of International Studies research fellow Muhammad Faizal Abdul Rahman.

“But they carry significant weight as the US is the largest economy in the world by GDP (gross domestic product) and it is the global power that dominates the international financial system.”

He said that foreign firms under US sanctions would find it difficult to do business with American entities or individuals, and sell or procure goods and services from the US market.

Such sanctions would also isolate these companies from the international financial system, said Mr Faizal.

“These sanctions could also function as indirect political pressure on other countries, especially those in the non-western world, to do more to rein in the sanctioned companies and be more aligned with the West in efforts to weaken the Russian economy and military-industry complex,” he said.

Dr Shashi Jayakumar, executive director of security consultancy SJK Geostrategic Advisory, noted that this is not the first time that Singapore entities or individuals have been designated under the OFAC sanctions list.

“Singapore entities and individuals have been designated under OFAC in the past on account of their links with, or dealings with, North Korea, Iran or Myanmar,” he said.

In March 2022, Singapore imposed financial measures targeted at designated Russian banks, entities and activities in Russia, as well as fundraising activities benefiting the Russian government.

The Singapore government also imposed export controls on items that can be “directly used as weapons to inflict harm on or to subjugate the Ukrainians”, as well as items that can contribute to offensive cyber operations, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said then.

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Pattaya banks on big tunnel to end persistent floods

Pattaya is hopeful that a large tunnel under construction will drain floodwater and prevent the city from flooding. (Photo: Chaiyot Pupattanapong)
Pattaya is hopeful that a large tunnel under construction will drain floodwater and prevent the city from flooding. (Photo: Chaiyot Pupattanapong)

The people of Pattaya are hopeful that a new drainage tunnel will help resolve the resort city’s persistent flooding issues caused by heavy rainfall.

Pattaya deputy mayor Manote Nongyai said on Friday that the big tunnel project has resumed and is expected to be operational by early next year, in time for the wet season, which runs from May to October.

The coastal city is installing a two-metre diameter drainage tunnel to address flooding. The project encountered delays due to route adjustments from an upcoming high-speed train construction.

The city administration relies on the project to divert floodwater from downtown and surrounding areas to Na Kluea canal, which leads to the sea in Bang Lamung district, Chon Buri province.

Pattaya is located in a low-lying area making it prone to take water overflowing mainly from Nong Pla Lai and Huay Yai reservoirs. Flood-risk areas include Sukhumvit Road in southern Pattaya and Sai Sam Road.

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Ukraine’s decentralized warfare: the battle of the common person – Asia Times

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine offers an unprecedented case study on the democratization of warfare, particularly in three critical domains: drones, cyberattacks and influence operations.

The accessibility of technology has empowered ordinary citizens to participate directly in modern warfare, reshaping how wars of the future will be fought.

Ukrainian civilians have demonstrated methods that could be followed by citizens in other countries facing similar threats. Military analysts and scholars must understand these trends to prepare for future conflicts, which are likely to incorporate similar decentralized strategies.

For example, if the United States were to engage in a conflict with China over Taiwan, civilians most likely would play active roles both in defending online and in supporting operations on the physical battlefield.

Cyber warfare: the IT Army’s pioneering role

On June 20, 2024, the IT Army of Ukraine – a decentralized group of volunteer hackers – claimed to have launched against Russia’s banking system a distributed denial-of-service attack that it described as the “largest DDoS in history.”

That attack temporarily crippled several Russian banks, causing significant financial disruptions and showcasing the effectiveness of decentralized cyber tactics.

In a hybrid warfare landscape the IT Army has become a key player, operating across both physical and cyber battlefields and redefining modern warfare.

The IT Army was initially formed in early 2022 following a call to arms by Ukraine’s Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov, who saw the potential of mobilizing civilian hackers to bolster Ukraine’s defenses.

The IT Army’s primary tactic – DDoS attacks, which flood networks with excessive traffic – is accessible and effective, democratizing cyber warfare by enabling individuals worldwide to participate without extensive technical knowledge.

The impact of the IT Army has drawn attention from Russian officials. In March 2024, Dmitry Gribkov, an aide to the Russian Security Council, warned Western nations that supporting the IT Army was akin to “opening Pandora’s box.”

Gribkov alleged that hacking experts were being trained in Ukraine and the Baltic states for cyber operations targeting Russian infrastructure, reflecting the Kremlin’s growing concerns about Ukraine’s ability to inflict pain on Russia.

The IT Army’s cyber offensive has inflicted significant and lasting damage, with economic losses estimated to exceed $1 billion. In early 2024, DDoS attacks on Russian companies doubled overall compared with the year-earlier figures.

The Russian energy sector in particular suffered a tenfold increase in such attacks, which weakened critical infrastructure supporting Russia’s war effort.

The IT Army has also collaborated with Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) to conduct synchronized DDoS attacks and drone strikes, helping knock out Russian telecom networks and CCTV systems. That reduces the visibility of Ukrainian drone operations and thereby increases their success rate.

Encouraging global participation, the IT Army utilizes social media to share tools, instructions, and targets, allowing ordinary people to contribute to cyberattacks. This open-call structure taps into a global volunteer base, including participants from Europe, the US and other regions.

These actions showcase a new type of warfare, one that merges military and civilian resistance and bridges the gap between traditional soldiers and online combatants.

Countering Russian disinformation: NAFO and civilian influence operations

The Ukrainian defense effort has also been characterized by resilience and adaptability in information warfare. The North Atlantic Fella Organization (NAFO), formed in response to Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion, has become a formidable force against Russian disinformation.

Using humor and memes to counter propaganda, NAFO – a leaderless, decentralized group – engages online audiences to keep the global spotlight on Ukraine and challenge Russian narratives. The group’s humorous approach, exemplified by Shiba Inu dog avatars, has proven remarkably resilient, making it difficult for Russian trolls to undermine its efforts.

A NAFO dog avatar. Image: Emerging Europe

Supporting Ukraine’s information frontlines, NAFO has been instrumental in fighting Russian trolls and countering disinformation campaigns. NAFO gained popularity by using Shiba Inu memes to mock Russian propaganda, making Russia’s accusations against them seem absurd. One ongoing joke within NAFO is that members are “real Shiba dogs employed by the CIA,” which deflects accusations while adding levity to their messaging.

Early in the invasion, NAFO’s success was clear when it forced Russia’s top diplomat in Vienna, Mikhail Ulyanov, off X (formerly Twitter) following a heated exchange with a cartoon dog. This flexible and decentralized approach has allowed NAFO to respond quickly to changing narratives in the fast-paced realm of information warfare.

The Kremlin’s discomfort with NAFO’s influence is evident, with RT labeling NAFO as a “vast pro-Ukrainian bot army.” Even Russia’s foreign ministry spokeswoman criticized the group in July 2023. The Economist described NAFO’s approach as “a remarkably successful form of information warfare,” while Jamie Cohen, a media studies professor, characterized NAFO as “an actual tactical event against a nation-state.”

NAFO has further demonstrated its influence by helping suspend the screening of “Russians at War,” a pro-Russian documentary by ex-RT employee Anastasia Trofimova, in Canada. The group’s efforts highlighted the broader dangers of Russian influence operations and underscored NAFO’s capacity to effectively counter these narratives. In the digital age, anyone with an internet connection can join NAFO, making it an accessible and powerful counterbalance to Russian troll farms, which have been influencing global opinion since the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

Volunteer-driven military tech supply chains

On the physical battlefield, Ukrainian civilians have also taken on a critical role in providing drones, which are essential to Ukraine’s defense strategy. Lieutenant Colonel Pavlo Kurylenko emphasized this reliance, stating, “We’re only holding back the Russians with crowdfunded drones.” He noted that FPV (first-person view) drones, many of which are supplied by volunteers, are a crucial element preventing Russian breakthroughs on all fronts.

Demand for drones far exceeds supply, and Ukraine has depended heavily on volunteers to manage drone supply chains since the start of the invasion. Dzyga’s Paw, a fund that has supported over 100 military units, has played a key role in delivering essential tech supplies.

Former tech professionals from the fund have coordinated drone operations for Ukrainian forces, building robust tech supply chains for the military. Volunteers have also devised innovative solutions, such as using Google Meet to livestream drone footage, providing commanders with real-time battlefield intelligence.

Despite the efforts of volunteers, Ukraine still faces challenges due to limited access to Chinese-made drones. Kostyantyn Mynailenko, a commander in the Liut Brigade’s aerial reconnaissance unit, said, “The Russians have many more drones than us. They have a stable supply chain sourced directly from China, whereas we must order our Chinese drones indirectly through Europe.” This procurement gap has made Ukraine heavily reliant on volunteers to source Chinese drones for nearly two years.

The future of decentralized warfare

The Russo-Ukrainian War has vividly demonstrated the power of decentralized, civilian-driven warfare, establishing a model that will likely shape future conflicts. Through the democratization of drones, cyberattacks, and influence operations, Ukraine has mobilized ordinary citizens and volunteers, showing that advanced military capabilities can be built from the grassroots level. With crowdfunded drones, volunteer hackers, and online influence campaigns, Ukraine has effectively empowered civilians to play an active role in defense.

This new approach, blending traditional military tactics with the contributions of individual citizens and decentralized networks, has proven highly resilient and adaptable. As military analysts and strategists examine the implications, it’s clear that the integration of citizen-driven support will become an increasingly crucial component in modern warfare.

Carl von Clausewitz’s concept of “small wars” has evolved – from irregular units gathering intelligence and disrupting enemy operations, to “armed” citizens engaging in digital battles through drones, memes, and cyberattacks.

Ukraine’s experience has provided an invaluable case study for countries worldwide, showing that in a digitized world, anyone with an internet connection can contribute to the national defense. The democratization of warfare is not new, but technology has reshaped and expanded its possibilities, redefining how wars will be fought in the future.

This piece is an excerpt from a report presented by the author at the UK Parliament on October 9, on behalf of the Henry Jackson Society, titled “Military Lessons for NATO from the Russia-Ukraine War: Preparing for the Wars of Tomorrow.” The original report includes extensive footnoting to show the sourcing of facts and quotations.

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How China can revive its bruised and dwindling billionaire class – Asia Times

Is the “smart” money still fleeing China? Whether it’s wise to leave Asia’s biggest economy is debatable. What’s not is that the mainland billionaire emigration trend continues and that their ranks have thinned by more than a third in just the last three years.

The latter dynamic, tracked by research group Hurun, spotlights how the fallout from the last few years of government crackdowns, slowing economic growth, volatile equities and property collapse is catching up with Xi Jinping’s policymakers and complicating their efforts to counter Wall Street worries that China has become “uninvestable.”

To be sure, the “avoid-China” vibe isn’t what it was, say, six months ago. As Nicholas Colas, co-founder of research firm DataTrek, notes, the recent “surprise announcement of aggressive fiscal and monetary policy action is spurring a reappraisal of the view” that Chinese equities are uninvestable.

“China’s leadership has finally acknowledged that the country’s economy needs much more monetary and fiscal stimulus if it is to achieve its growth potential over time,” Colas says.

Billionaire David Tepper has been making his own headlines by declaring it time to buy “everything” in China. And after “running around the world” in recent weeks, Kinger Lau, chief China equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, says that “for some investors who haven’t really looked at China over the past one to two years, certainly, the interest level has picked up a lot”

As Lau tells the South China Morning Post, “I’m not saying everyone is buying. But the level of interest has picked up a lot, very much consistent with the flows and positioning.” He’s among many who now see “upside” for Chinese equities.

Where this leaves China’s remaining billionaires in US dollar terms – Hurun says there are now 753 versus a peak of 1,185 in 2021 – is debatable. What’s clear, though, is that the stakes surrounding next week’s gathering of the standing committee of National People’s Congress are rising.

Rarely has there been a better opportunity for Xi’s inner circle to reassure the billionaire set at home and global funds abroad.

“The announcement of the NPC Standing Committee meeting for November 4-8 reflects Beijing’s strategic approach to the major economic policy U-turn underway,” says economist Diana Choyleva at Enodo Economics.

Choyleva noted that “by scheduling the meeting immediately after the US presidential election on November 5, the Chinese leadership has positioned itself to announce fiscal measures with full knowledge of the electoral outcome, enhancing its ability to manage market expectations and responses effectively.”

Next week’s confab will “allow Chinese policymakers to fine-tune their announcements and potentially adjust the scale or presentation of stimulus measures based on the new geopolitical context,” she says.

Choyleva notes that “a better-coordinated approach to policy announcements could actually enhance market stability. Investors should view the timing as a sign of careful planning rather than delay, particularly given the potential for more comprehensive and strategically calibrated announcements.”

Billionaires and global funds alike are craving a “well-thought-out approach” that “sets the stage for more impactful and sustainable market responses,” Choyleva says. “For investors, this timing and a more coordinated policymaking reduces uncertainty by ensuring that China’s fiscal response will be announced with full knowledge of the US political landscape, potentially leading to more stable and sustained market reactions rather than volatile short-term responses.”

The potential wildcard of a Donald Trump 2.0 presidency would be a game-changer for Asia, starting with a 60% tax on all Chinese goods that would upend Asian growth and supply chains.

Derek Holt, Bank of Nova Scotia’s head of capital markets economics, speaks for many when he warns that “Trump’s plans risk being highly destabilizing to world markets in a much more fractured world.”

Investors everywhere are bracing for a supersized US trade war in the event of a second Trump White House, including Europe. Germany’s recession is already casting a pall over European markets.

“In a worst-case scenario of a full-blown tariff war with retaliation, we estimate potential for a mid to high single-digit drag on European earnings-per-share growth,” says Barclays Plc strategist Emmanuel Cau. A “big chunk” of analysts’ worry more than 10% growth in earnings next year could disappear as trade tensions spike, he notes.

One worry is Trump’s desire to add fiscal stimulus via giant tax cuts into an economy that doesn’t need it. “The US economy doesn’t need pump-priming, it’s in excess demand and will remain there next year,” Holt notes. And while “the US needs to assert control over its borders, Trump’s extreme immigration policies would severely damage the US economy.”

Trump’s desire to weaken the US dollar also would increase inflation risks, complicating hopes the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates. Not that Vice President Kamala Harris has a great track record in global market circles, Holt notes. As a US senator in 2020, Harris was one of only a few lawmakers who voted against a revised US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement.

In Holt’s view, “it’s a matter of picking the one you think will be less damaging. As a professional economist, I have no doubt that this means voting against Donald Trump and the weak self-serving men behind him.”

Yet risks abound as the US national debt tops the US$35 trillion mark. “America’s fiscal position is living on borrowed time and the more damage that’s done now, the higher taxes will go in the future in a potentially more divided and more dangerous world,” Holt explains.

Reassuring China’s billionaires and overseas funds requires bold and transparent action by Xi’s inner circle. 

Earlier this month, Beijing cut borrowing costs, slashed banks’ reserve requirement ratios, reduced mortgage rates and unveiled market-support tools to put a floor under share prices. Beijing is telegraphing bolder fiscal stimulus steps.

Team Xi also raised the loan quota for unfinished housing projects to 4 trillion yuan (US$562 billion), nearly double the previous amount. The bump was less than markets wanted, but pledges of more come has limited big negative market reactions.

The bigger issue, though, is repairing the balance sheets of giant property developers. Success in devising a mechanism to dispose of toxic assets could go a long way toward reassuring investors.

Xi’s inner circle has surely demonstrated it knows what’s needed to turn things around and reassure its capitalist class: a clear strategy to strengthen the finances of good-quality developers; incentivizing mergers and acquisitions; improving capital markets so that consumers stop seeing property as their only investment option; creating social safety nets so that households spend more and save less.

Beijing also must allay concerns that the tech crackdowns that began in late 2020 are over and done with.

Xi has left it to Premier Li Qiang to make the case for a more dynamic, competitive and predictable China. In January, Li said that “choosing investment in the Chinese market is not a risk, but an opportunity.”

He stressed that “investing in China will bring huge returns and a better future” and described CEOs on hand as “participants, witnesses, and beneficiaries of China’s reform and opening up.”

China, Li added, “stands ready to seriously look into and solve the difficulties and problems encountered by foreign enterprises” operating in the country. “We will take active steps to address reasonable concerns of the global business community,” Li said.

The bottom line, says Fred Hu, CEO of Primavera Capital Group, is that if China “really commits to rule of law and market reforms, I do think the confidence will slowly but surely come back, then the animal spirit will be rekindled.”

One reason the clock is ticking in Xi’s reform plans is that the 10-year mark of his “Made in China 2025” scheme is fast approaching.

When he took the reins of power in 2012, Xi promised to let market forces play a “decisive” role in Beijing’s decision-making. In May 2015, Xi unveiled his ambitious plan to morph China into a high-tech Mecca for semiconductors, renewable energy, electric vehicles, biotechnology, aerospace, artificial intelligence, robotics and green infrastructure.

A decade on, progress has been more sporadic than hoped. Team Xi has often proved better at treating the symptoms of China’s economic funk, not the underlying ailment. 

It’s a lesson Japan taught the world: throwing money at an economy traumatized by plunging property values and deflationary pressures won’t work without supply-side moves to repair cracks in the economy.

Late last year, Xi introduced the buzz-phrase “new quality productive forces.” Though somewhat cryptic, Xi’s inner circle has been selling it as the answer to China’s economic future.

China wants to get its consumers to spend more and save less to keep growth near 5% year after year. That means continuing to raise incomes and building more robust social safety nets to encourage spending. It means creating deeper, trusted capital markets so the average Chinese can invest in stocks and bonds — not just real estate.

Beijing’s extreme focus on boosting consumption over the years has proved counterproductive, economists say. It leaves China susceptible to boom-and-bust cycles that require urgent attention at the expense of moving the economy upmarket. China’s heavy reliance on exports leaves the economy vulnerable to Trump-like antics.

There’s no better alternative to accelerating and broadening China’s evolution into a high-tech powerhouse, development experts say. And indications are, this is precisely the pivot Xi and Li are making as 2025 approaches.

At the NPC in March, Xi’s Communist Party said “it’s imperative to boost the endeavors to modernize the industrial system, and accelerate the development of new productive forces.” Billionaires skittish about China’s prospects couldn’t agree more. The days and weeks ahead offer Xi a ready opportunity to do just that.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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Commentary: A possible Trump win muddies an already-chaotic economic debate in China

WILL BEIJING’S PRIORITIES CHANGE?

Until recently, Xi’s stimulus was entirely a domestic affair.

Ministry-level officials have promised the largest one-time debt swap in recent years to improve municipal finances. The state will also buy unsold housing to stabilise property prices, as well as boost banks’ capital buffer to increase their willingness to lend in a weak economy.

All these are sensible blueprints to lift China out of deflation. 

But a Trump win can change Beijing’s priorities again. His hawkish rhetoric on Chinese imports, as well as the wide latitude that the US president enjoys in setting and imposing tariffs, directly threatens Xi’s ultimate passion of transforming China into a high-end manufacturing powerhouse.

China has certainly reacted to Trump’s moves before. After Huawei was placed on the US trade blacklist in 2019, state resources were poured into industrial upgrades. Huawei alone received over US$1 billion in government grants last year, more than quadruple the amount in 2019, in part a reflection that President Joe Biden has furthered Trump’s tough trade policies. 

Bank lending to industrial firms has also soared in that time; meanwhile, real estate developers are struggling to refinance. In July, the government said it would spend 300 billion yuan (US$42 billion) to expand an existing trade-in and equipment upgrade programme as a way to boost consumption but also to absorb industrial production.

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Smuggler reveals how he has helped more than 1,000 people cross Channel

Reuters An aerial view of an inflatable dinghy overcrowded with migrants, motoring through the sea.Reuters

A prolific Vietnamese people smuggler, who entered the UK illegally this year in a small boat, has told the BBC he forges visa documents for other Vietnamese who plan to make the same crossing.

The man, whom we are calling Thanh, is now claiming UK asylum and told us he has spent almost 20 years – his entire adult life – in the smuggling industry.

He has been in prison, led a gang working on the northern coast of France, and claims to have helped more than 1,000 people to risk their lives to cross the Channel.

The self-confessed criminal met the BBC at a secret location to share detailed information about the mechanics of the international smuggling industry.

‘A very lucrative business’

Thanh walks into the room cautiously, dark eyes moving fast as if searching for possible exit routes. A small, neat, quietly authoritative figure in a black polo neck.

There are handshakes and he says “hello” in a soft, strongly accented voice. Beyond that, we speak almost exclusively through a Vietnamese translator.

After months of phone calls and one brief meeting, the interview takes place on a grey day in a small hotel room, in a northern English town that we are choosing not to name here.

We decided there was a strong public interest in hearing about Thanh’s life in the smuggling trade, which could only be secured in return for agreeing to keep his identity confidential. He fears being recognised not only by the British authorities but by Vietnamese criminals in the UK.

Vietnam emerged in the first months of this year – suddenly and unexpectedly – as the largest single source of migrants seeking to cross the Channel to the UK illegally in small boats.

Many Vietnamese migrants have cited failing businesses and debts at home for their decision to seek work in the UK. Their first step, experts have suggested, is often to access Europe by taking advantage of a legal work visa system in Hungary and other parts of Eastern Europe.

This is where Thanh’s forgery operation comes in, he says. He helps create the fake paperwork needed to get the legitimate work visas.

“I can’t justify breaking the law. But it’s a very lucrative business,” Thanh said calmly, insisting he doesn’t provide forgeries for people seeking UK visas.

We know from our interviews with Vietnamese smugglers and their clients that people pay between $15,000 (£11,570) and $20,000 (£15,470) to travel from Vietnam to mainland Europe and then to cross the Channel.

It is a dangerous business. More than 50 people have been killed crossing the Channel in small boats already this year, making 2024 the deadliest on record. For the first time, the figures include one Vietnamese.

When our team first made contact with Thanh in mainland Europe earlier this year, we knew he was going to attempt to get to the UK with other Vietnamese. He later let us know he had crossed the Channel from northern France, in a small boat.

Thanh told us he had first flown from Vietnam to Hungary on a legitimate visa – although he had acquired it using forged documents.

He had then flown on to Paris and stayed for a few days in a “safe house”, organised by a Vietnamese smuggling gang on the city’s outskirts. Soon after then, he was taken in a group by minibus to the coast and, finally, put in the hands of one of the Kurdish gangs that control the small boat crossings.

“Once you’re on the boat, you get treated like everyone else,” he said. “It’s overcrowded.”

But the Vietnamese passengers pay three or four times more money to the gangs handling the crossing routes, he told us, “so we get the advantage of being given a place more quickly”.

In fact, our sources suggest the Vietnamese pay roughly twice the usual rate.

The journey Thanh described is now an established route from Vietnam to the UK – a path heavily promoted by smugglers on Facebook, who charge clients for forged documents, flights, buses, and a place on a flimsy rubber boat. Payment for a successful Channel crossing is only made after arrival in the UK.

And Thanh had been lucky, he told us, evading French police patrolling the beaches near Calais, and crossing in an inflatable boat on his first attempt.

Or perhaps he tried several times. Over the months that we were in contact with him, he changed elements of the story he told us – perhaps to cover his tracks and to avoid giving potential clues about his identity to the UK authorities.

‘Yes. A lie. I was not trafficked’

Thanh asked for asylum when he was interviewed by a British immigration official – explaining he had left Vietnam because he had got into debt to gangsters when his business failed. His life, he said, was in danger.

He told the official he had been trafficked to the UK in order to work for a gang to pay off his debt.

We had heard similar stories from the Vietnamese we encountered in northern France.

When we first established contact with Thanh, he portrayed himself as a desperate migrant, first stuck in France, and then trapped in the UK’s asylum system, living in a crowded hotel, unable to work, and waiting to learn his fate.

But over time, we began to learn the truth. Or rather, Thanh began to reveal the extent to which his extraordinary life story has been built on a series of elaborate, even outrageous, lies.

Sitting opposite me on a sofa, Thanh admitted that he had not been trafficked to the UK. He had made up that story as part of his asylum claim. And he went much further, claiming that all the Vietnamese migrants he knew of had been told to offer a version of the same lie.

“Yes. A lie. I was not trafficked,” he said.

Migration experts and NGOs have a range of views about the scale of trafficking from Vietnam.

One French prosecutor told us that many Vietnamese were in debt to the smugglers and ended up working in UK cannabis farms. But he played down the idea of an organised supply chain, insisting the smuggling system was more like a haphazard series of stepping stones, with each stage controlled by separate gangs. Finding work in the UK was, he said, about luck and opportunism.

Other experts insist that many, if not most, Vietnamese migrants are victims of trafficking, and that those being taken across the Channel are in fact a cheap and easy source of labour for criminal gangs in the UK. A government registry of people suspected of being victims of modern slavery has consistently shown a high number of Vietnamese.

“It is often not possible, or helpful, to differentiate when a person has been trafficked or smuggled, especially as exploitation can happen at any time,” said Jamie Fookes, UK and Europe advocacy manager at Anti-Slavery International.

“Those crossing will often have to pay either through extortion, or from being exploited in some form of forced labour or criminality on the other side.”

Safe migration routes, he added, would be the only way to prevent traffickers taking advantage of people’s desperation.

A screengrab of a Facebook post, written in Vietnamese, advertising smuggling services. The English translation is beneath and reads: Journey to 44 [the international country code for the UK], at a surprisingly cheap price. Fast, safe and meals and accommodation are included. Payment after a successful arrival.

But Thanh maintains that most Vietnamese migrants aren’t trafficked, and that it is just a line used to claim asylum.

“That’s the way it’s done. [People lie about being trafficked] in order to continue the asylum process safely,” he said.

Thanh clearly has a motive to lie about this. If he were to be caught forging documents for people who went on to be trafficked, the penalties would be far more serious than for smuggling.

In our reporting we have sought to corroborate the details of Thanh’s story – and in many instances have done so successfully. But a cloud of doubt hangs, inevitably, over elements of it.

‘I claimed I was still a child’

Thanh says he first left Vietnam in 2007. He was in his late teens or early twenties. He had already dropped out of school to work in a textile factory in the south of the country. But his family wanted him to head abroad, to Europe, in search of higher wages.

“I borrowed $6,000 (£4,624) from relatives and neighbours [to pay for the trip]. A lot of people had already made the same journey. We Vietnamese have always travelled like this – to wherever it is easier to make money,” he told me.

That journey first took him to a farm outside Prague, in the Czech Republic. He spent more than a year picking spring onions and other vegetables before deciding he could do better in Germany. Crossing the border illegally in a minibus, Thanh says he threw away his passport and other documents, and chose a new name.

And he went a step further.

When he arrived in Berlin, he told the authorities he was 14 years old.

The smugglers who had charged him $1,000 (£771) to get him into Germany had advised him it would be easier if he claimed he was under 16.

“I looked young in those days. Nobody challenged me on that.”

And so, the German authorities promptly sent a man they took to be a boy to a children’s home 45 minutes’ drive from the German capital, where Thanh quickly got to work, selling black-market cigarettes in the local town.

Thanh says he stayed in Germany for about two years. He left the children’s home, found a girlfriend, and soon became a father. But a police crackdown started to affect his income from selling cigarettes. And so, in 2010, he decided to try to reach the UK.

Crossing into France without his new family, he tells us, he threw away his German documents and invented yet another false identity.

By then, thousands of migrants were trying to cross the Channel to the UK by hiding in lorries and shipping containers. Thanh says he made several attempts but was unsuccessful.

“I had bad luck. The patrols were very strict. They used dogs to detect us hiding in a container.” He claims to have reached Dover at one point, only for the truck to be returned with him and a group of other migrants still inside.

Stuck in France, camping in a forest near Dunkirk, Thanh was offered work by Vietnamese people smugglers. It was a job at which, he says, he soon excelled.

“I had to provide food and supplies and arrange to send people to the lorries at particular times. I did not recruit people, but I was paid €300 (£250) for each successful crossing,” said Thanh, insisting that none of his passengers were being trafficked or exploited.

“We just provided a service. No-one was forced. It was illegal, but it was very, very profitable.”

A few years later, the same gang – no longer linked to Thanh, he says – would be involved in the deaths of 39 Vietnamese migrants who were discovered, suffocated, inside a lorry trailer in Essex.

We need to gloss over some details of what Thanh says happened to him over the next few years in order to continue to hide his identity. He rose within a gang to become one of its senior members. But eventually, after being arrested, tried, and imprisoned for several years in Europe, he returned to Vietnam.

At which point, he might have left the smuggling world behind him. But, as he puts it now, his own reputation pulled him back in.

“People in Europe contacted me asking for help,” he told us.

“I’d already helped about 1,000 people to get to the UK successfully, so I was well known for that success.”

In 2017, he says he re-entered the smuggling trade – only this time, Thanh wasn’t smuggling people, he was forging documents for them.

Bank statements, payslips, tax invoices, anything that European embassies required to prove that people applying for student, or work, or business visas had the necessary funds to ensure they planned to return to Vietnam.

“I had a lot of clients. Depending on which embassy it was, we would provide forged bank statements or other documents.

“First, we would submit these online. If certain embassies needed to check with banks, then we’d put real cash into a bank account. We had arrangements with staff at certain banks,” Thanh explained.

“The clients couldn’t access the money themselves, but the bank staff would show the [falsified] details to embassy staff. We worked with lots of different types of Vietnamese banks.”

An expert in Vietnam told us that banking fraud is “quite common”, and there were instances of bank staff colluding with criminals to forge documents.

A black silhouette of man - head and shoulders. Behind him is a white curtain.

Thanh tells us he is not proud of his work as a forger – that he had known it was illegal and that he had done it simply to support his family. But at times he sounds boastful, observing that “people trust me, I have never failed”, and insisting his work was “not a serious crime in Vietnam”.

By now, Thanh had a new family in Vietnam. But earlier this year, he decided to leave.

It is not entirely clear why. At one point, he tells us his business had been struggling. He also mentions problems with the Vietnamese police – but he plays them down. Perhaps it is caution. But it strikes us that a lifetime of deception might have affected his ability, or his desire, to distinguish truth from fiction.

So why talk to us? Why risk blowing his cover in the UK? And why continue with his forgery business here, even now?

Thanh portrays himself as a repentant figure who now regrets his life of crime and wants to speak out to prevent other Vietnamese people from making the same mistakes. Above all, he wants to warn them against coming to the UK illegally, saying it is simply not worth it.

“I just want people in Vietnam to understand that it’s not worth borrowing lots of money to travel here. It’s not so easy for illegal arrivals to find work or make money.

“And when they do make money it’s less than in the past. It’s no better than in Germany or other European countries. I’ve been trying to find work in the grey economy, but I’ve not been successful,” he told us.

“If you want to work on a cannabis farm, there are opportunities, but I don’t want to get involved in more illegal activities now. I don’t want to land up in prison.”

Thanh urges the UK and European governments to make a bigger effort to publicise the fact there are no jobs here for illegal migrants. He also blames smuggling gangs for lying to their clients about the realities and opportunities.

But he says people back in Vietnam are hard to dissuade, suspecting those trying to warn against travelling to Europe are “being selfish and trying to keep the job opportunities for themselves”.

When we confront Thanh, repeatedly, about his hypocrisy and his own continued involvement in the elements of smuggling industry, he shrugs. It is just business.

“We don’t force anyone to do what they do. They ask us for help, as they would from any business. There’s no trafficking involved. If you have a good reputation, the clients come to you, without threats or violence.”

But what about the dangers involved – the surging number of deaths in the Channel?

“My role is just a small one in a much bigger process.”

Thanh acknowledges that his life, and that of his family back in Vietnam, would be in danger if the smuggling gangs found out he had been talking to us. When pushed, he admits to some regrets.

“If I could start again, I would not leave Vietnam. I think my life would be much better if I had stayed at home. I’ve faced so many struggles. I don’t have a bright future.”

Was he telling the truth?

At the end of our interview, he stands up, ready to leave, and for the first time, a flicker of concern, or perhaps irritation, seems to flit across his face.

Perhaps he had said too much.

Additional reporting by Kathy Long

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