Myanmar’s Shwe Kokko: Inside a city ‘built on scams’

47 seconds ago
Jonathan Mind

South East Asia journalist

Jonathan Mind/ BBC Workers in blue shirts sit amid construction rubble in front of tall buildings near a crane.Jonathan Mind/ BBC

The large, beautiful structures that emerge from the meadows on the Myanmar part of the Moei creek are so jarring that you find yourself squirming to make sure you haven’t imagined them.

Eight years ago there was nothing over there in Karen State. A long-running legal war and a few roughly-built concrete structures have made this region of Myanmar one of the poorest places on earth, all combined with trees. But now, on this area along the border with Thailand, a little town has emerged like a dream. It is known as the Golden Raintree or Shwe Kokko.

It is accused of being a city built on schemes, home to a profitable yet lethal connection of scams, money-laundering and human trafficking. She Zhijiang, the person responsible for it, is awaiting extradition to China while he is imprisoned in Bangkok.

But Yatai, She Zhijiang’s firm which built the city, paints a very unique perspective of Shwe Kokko in its promotional videos – as a resort town, a healthy holiday destination for Taiwanese tourists and shelter for the super-rich.

Shwe Kokko’s story is also one of the unbridled ambition that has swept away from China in recent years.

She Zhijiang dreamed of building this glittering city as his ticket out of the shadowy world of scams and gambling which he inhabited.

But by aiming so high, he has attracted Beijing’s attention, which is now eager to stop the fraudulent activities along the Thai-Myanmar border, which are increasingly targeting Chinese citizens.

Publicity about the scams is also hurting Thai tourism – Thailand is shutting down power to compounds over the border, toughening its banking rules and promising to block visas for those suspected of using Thailand as a transit route.

Shwe Kokko has been stranded in Myanmar’s post-coup, war-ravaged country, unable to attract the investment and visitors it needs to continue.

Yatai is trying to fix the city’s sinister image by allowing journalists to see it, holding out hope that more favourable reporting might even get She Zhijiang out of jail.

So they sent the BBC to Shwe Kokko.

Inside Shwe Kokko

Finding the location is challenging.

Ever since construction began in 2017, Shwe Kokko has been a forbidden place, off-limits to casual visitors.

Access became even more difficult as the civil war in Myanmar grew even more after the military coup in 2021. It takes three days from the country’s commercial hub Yangon – through multiple checkpoints, blocked roads and a real risk of getting caught in armed skirmishes. Crossing Thailand takes only a few minutes, but careful planning is required to avoid Thai police and army patrols.

She Zhijiang’s colleagues took us on a tour, highlighting the newly-paved streets, the luxury villas, the trees–” Mr She believes in making a green city”, they told us. Wang Fugui, who claimed to be a former police officer from Guangxi in southern China, was our guide. He ended up in prison in Thailand, on what he insists were trumped-up fraud charges. He became one of his most dependable lieutenants there after getting to know She Zhijiang.

Getty Images Thai military personnel keep watch atop armoured vehicles along the Moei river on the Thai side, next to the 2nd Thai-Myanmar Friendship Bridge, in Thailand's Mae Sot district on April 12, 2024. Getty Images
Jonathan Mind/BBC A market in Shwe Kokko. Two women walk along a wet brown road, one pushing a wooden cart with white flowers in it. Their outfits are shades of pink. Shops selling baskets and dresses line the street on one sideJonathan Mind/BBC

At first glance, Shwe Kokko has the appearance of a provincial Chinese city. There is a constant procession of Chinese-made construction vehicles going to and from building sites, and the signs on the buildings are written in Chinese characters.

Yatai is vague about the tenants of all its buildings, as it is about many things. They told us that “rich people from many nations rent the villas.” And what about the businesses? ” Many businesses. Hotels, casinos”.

However, the majority of the people we saw were local Karen, who are one of the ethnic minorities in Myanmar, who visit Shwe Kokko daily for work. We saw very few of the overseas visitors who are supposed to be the customers of the hotels and casinos.

Yatai claims Shwe Kokko has stopped a number of scams. It has put up huge billboards all over town proclaiming, in Chinese, Burmese and English, that forced labour was not allowed, and that “online businesses” should leave. However, local people quietly informed us that the scam business was still operating.

Starting a decade ago in the unchecked frenzy of Chinese investment on the Cambodian coast, then moving to the lawless badlands of Myanmar’s border with China, the scam operators have now settled along the Thai-Myanmar border. The Myanmar military and a roiling gang of rebel armies and warlords are battling it out for control of Karen State around them.

The scams have grown into a multi-billion dollar business. They involve tens of thousands of workers who are kept in locked-down buildings where they defraud people all over the world of their savings.

Some work there willingly, but others are abducted and forced to work. Those who have fled have enslaved and suffered horrifying experiences. Some have come from Shwe Kokko.

We had the opportunity to speak with a young woman who had recently worked in one of the scam centers. She had not enjoyed it and been allowed to leave.

She claimed that her role in the modeling team, which consisted primarily of attractive young women, was to attempt to establish an intimate online relationship with potential victims.

” The target is the elderly”, she said. You begin a conversation by saying,” Oh, you look just like one of my friends.” Once you make friends you encourage them by sending pictures of yourself, sometimes wearing your night clothes”.

Then, she explains, the conversation shifts to get-rich-quick schemes, such as crypto investments, where the women claim that’s how they made a lot of money.

” When they feel close to you, you pass them on to the chatting section”, she says. The chatting partners will continue to communicate with the client to convince them to purchase shares of the crypto company.

During our brief time in Shwe Kokko we were only allowed to see what Yatai wanted us to see. Even so, it was obvious that the scams continue to exist and are likely still the city’s main industry.

Our request to see inside any of the newly-built office buildings were turned down. They kept telling us that those were private. We were escorted at all times by security guards seconded from the militia group which controls this part of the border. We were not permitted to enter the buildings ‘ construction sites or the exteriors. Many of the windows had bars on the insides.

Jonathan Mind/ BBC A military vehicle inside the city. Armed men in fatigues stand on the back of a black pickup truck driving down a road with shops on it, one called Family Fashion ShopJonathan Mind/ BBC

The young woman who used to work in a scam center said,” Everyone in Shwe Kokko knows what goes on there.”

She dismissed Yatai’s claim that it no longer permitted scam centres in Shwe Kokko.

That is a lie, I tell you. There is no way they don’t know about this. In those high-rise buildings, the entire city is doing it. No-one goes there for fun. Yatai has no way of knowing.

Who is She Zhijiang?

She Zhijiang reportedly received a call from Bangkok’s Klong Prem Prison, where he is currently imprisoned, saying,” I can promise that Yatai would never accept telecom fraud and scams.”

Yatai wanted us to hear from the man himself, and hooked up a ropey video link. We had to rely on Mr. Wang to answer our questions and keep our eyes off the prison guards because only Mr. Wang could be seen conversing with him.

Not much is known about She Zhijiang, a small-town Chinese entrepreneur who Beijing alleges is a criminal mastermind.

He left school when he was 14 and started learning computer coding in Hunan province, China, a poor village. He appears to have moved to the Philippines in his early 20s and into online gambling, which is illegal in China. He began to make his money at this point. In 2014 he was convicted by a Chinese court of running an illegal lottery, but he stayed overseas.

He managed to obtain Cambodian citizenship by investing in gambling companies there. He has used at least four different names.

He and a Karen warlord Saw Chit Thu, who controls the Moei River in Myanmar, made a deal in 2016 to create a new city together. She Zhijiang would provide the funds, the Chinese construction machinery and materials, while Saw Chit Thu and his 8, 000 armed fighters would keep it safe.

Yatai’s glitzy videos depicted a high-rise wonderland of hotels, casinos, and cyberparks, promising a$ 15 billion ( £12 billion ) investment. Shwe Kokko was described as part of Xi Jinping’s Belt-and-Road Initiative or BRI, bringing Chinese funds and infrastructure to the world.

In 2020, China publicly split its support for She Zhijiang, and the Myanmar government opened an investigation into Yatai, which was operating casinos before they were made legal in Myanmar.

Courtesy Yatai She Zhijiang wearing a black leather jacket and black trousers at Tiananmen Square, in front of yellow barricades Courtesy Yatai

She Zhijiang was detained and imprisoned in Bangkok in August 2022 following a Chinese request to Interpol. He and his business partner Saw Chit Thu have also been sanctioned by the British government for their links to human trafficking.

She Zhijiang claims to have been a victim of double deception by the Chinese government. He says he founded his company Yatai on the instruction of the Chinese Ministry of State Security, and insists that Shwe Kokko was then a part of the BRI.

He claims that because he refused to give them control of his project, China’s communist leadership is turning against him. They wanted a colony on the Thai-Myanmar border, he says. She Zhijiang’s business relationship has been denied by China.

While he denied any wrongdoing on Yatai’s part, She Zhijiang, however, admitted to” a high probability” that scammers were coming to Shwe Kokko to spend their money.

” Because our Yatai City is completely accessible to anyone who wants to enter and leave freely. Refusing customers, for a businessman like me, is really difficult. This is my area of weakness.

It is, however, stretching credulity to believe that Yatai, which runs everything in Shwe Kokko, was unable to stop scammers coming in and out of the city.

Other than scams, it’s also difficult to imagine any other business choosing to operate here. With Thailand cutting off power and telecommunications, electricity comes from diesel generators, which are expensive to run. Additionally, Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite system, which is also very expensive, is used for communication.

Yatai’s strategy is” to whitewash the project to create a narrative that Shwe Kokko is a safe city”, says Jason Tower, from the United States Institute for Peace, which has spent years researching the scam operation in Shwe Kokko.

He claims that they may even be “begin moving some of the more notorious components of the scam industry, like torture, into other areas.”

But he doesn’t think the plan will work:” What kinds of legitimate businesses will go into Shwe Kokko? It’s simply not appealing. The economy will continue to be a scam economy”.

A company operating in a conflict zone

When we were eventually allowed to see inside one casino in Shwe Kokko, run by a genial Australian, he told us they were going to close it down.

Local Karen were the only customers inside, playing a well-known arcade game where they had to shoot digital fish. We were forbidden from doing any interviews. The roulette and card tables were not present in the back rooms. The Australian manager said the casino- built six years ago- had been popular and profitable when there were just one or two of them, before the civil war. However, these days, with at least nine customers in place, there were not enough customers to turn around.

The real money was in online gambling, which he said was the main business in Shwe Kokko.

Jonathan Mind/BBC A woman walks past a sign saying trafficking is prohibited. The sign is largely blue, with drawings of people with tools apparently smashing rocks on one side, and skyscrapers on the otherJonathan Mind/BBC

It is impossible to determine how much money is made through online gambling and how much is made through blatant criminal activity, such as money laundering and fraud. They are usually run from the same compounds and by the same teams. When we inquired about the amount of money they made, Yatai refused to answer with even a ballpark figure. That is private, they said. Although the business has registered in Hong Kong, Myanmar, and Thailand, these are essentially shell companies with very little revenue or income passing through them.

We turned down Yatai’s offer to see the go-kart track, water park and model farm that they have built. Although we were unable to enter Yatai’s own luxurious hotel, we did see one more casino while being served breakfast there. It seemed empty.

The only other place we were permitted to visit was a karaoke club, which had incredible private rooms and gigantic domes that were completely obscured by digital screens and where large tropical fish and sharks swam. They also ran video loops extolling the vision and virtues of She Zhijiang. Except for a few young Chinese women who worked there, this club also appeared deserted.

They wore opera masks to avoid being identified, and danced unenthusiastically to music for a few minutes before giving up and sitting down. Interviews were not permitted. We were allowed to talk to a local Karen member of staff, but she was so intimidated by this we got little more than her name.

Jonathan Mind/BBC Seven women in a karaoke bar, wearing white, black and gold clothing, holding hands and dancing in neon lightsJonathan Mind/BBC

She Zhijiang has left Shwe Kokko’s running to a young protégé, 31-year-old He Yingxiong, in his absence. He lives with Wang Fugui in a sprawling villa they have built on the banks of the Moei River, overlooking Thailand, and guarded by massive Chinese bodyguards. They play mahjong there, eat the best food and beverages, and watch business closely.

Mr He has a slightly different explanation from his boss for the scams still operating under their noses. We are just developers of properties, he said. ” I can guarantee that this kind of thing does not happen here. However, even if it does, the locals have their own legal system, so it is their responsibility to handle it. Our job is just to provide good infrastructure, good buildings and supporting industries”.

However, this region of Myanmar has neither a legal system nor a functioning government. It is ruled by the various armed groups which control different bits of territory along the Thai border. Their leaders decide who can start or run a business, using their profits to help pay their battles with the Myanmar military or against one another. Many of them are known to be hosting scam compounds.

Jonathan Mind/BBC He Yingxiong who is running Shwe Kokko stands in front of a wooden fence with a field and city in the backgroundJonathan Mind/BBC
Jonathan Mind/BBC A view of the villa that is being used by He Yingxiong who is currently running Shwe Kokko. A decking area with woven chairs overlooks a river and green trees on the other sideJonathan Mind/BBC

Mr. He acknowledged that the war had allowed Yatai to purchase the land for such a low price. Karen human rights groups have accused Saw Chit Thu of driving the original inhabitants off their land, with minimal compensation, though it is clear Yatai is also providing badly needed jobs for the locals.

The lawlessness of Karen State appeals to illegal businesses, but that doesn’t help Shwe Kokko’s reputation.

Neither do recent headlines.

A 22-year-old Chinese actor, Wang Xing, was duped into Thailand with an offer to work on a movie shoot, and last month he was freed from a scam center on the border. His disappearance spurred a barrage of questions on Chinese social media, forcing the Thai and Chinese authorities to mount a joint operation to free him.

Chinese tourists have been putting off travel to Thailand because they worry for their safety. Other rescues have followed. Some scam victims have emailed the BBC asking for assistance, and rescue organizations claim there are still thousands of people trapped. Nearly all are in smaller compounds along the border south of Shwe Kokko.

Yatai emphasized to us that they are not the same as these heinous operations, which are essentially a collection of sheds constructed in forest clearings. That is where all the bad things happen now, they said. They discussed Dongmei, a cluster of low-rise buildings run by a well-known Chinese crime lord known as Wan Kuok Koi, also known as Broken Tooth, and KK Park, a notorious compound south of the border town of Myawaddy.

That distinction hasn’t helped She Zhijiang, who once had the ear of politicians, police bosses and even minor royalty in Thailand. He appears to have lost even the influence he once had in prison today to obtain special privileges. He has complained of being roughed up by the guards.

His attorneys are contesting the Interpol red notice used to justify his arrest, but China’s voice will likely be the one that will determine his fate.

From our interview with him, Shi Zhijiang seemed genuinely outraged over his sudden reversal of fortune.

” Before, I had no understanding of human rights, but now I really understand how horrible it is to have human rights violated,” he said. ” It is hard to imagine how the human rights of ordinary people in China are trampled upon when a respected businessman like me, who used to be able to go to the same state banquets as Xi Jinping, does not have his human rights and dignity protected in any way”.

It appears he actually believed he could create something that would, one day, transcend Shwe Kokko’s vile beginnings as a scam city.

What happens to it now is hard to guess, but if the Thai and Chinese governments keep acting to shut down the scams, the money will start to dry up.

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Tougher cyber laws ahead

Additionally, new measures will help victims.

According to Digital Economy and Society ( DES ) Minister Prasert Jantararuangtong, a proposed amendment to an executive order aimed at combating cybercrime and protecting its victims is expected to be published in the Royal Gazette this month.

Mr. Prasert stated on Monday that work have been intensified to combat tech murder in response to the Senate’s concerns about rising online scams and related financial harm.

Mr. Prasert claimed that the Council of State’s current review of the professional draft does provide authorities measures to combat the crime and assist victims.

Under the proposed article, banks, mobile operators, and social media owners may be held liable for injury from call center scams if they are found negligent or foolish.

Telecom providers and the NBTC ( National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission ) would also be required to suspend SIM cards that are believed to have been used by fraudsters.

The committee evaluating cash trades under the Anti-Money Laundering Act may be permitted to return stolen funds to victims without having to wait for instances to get settled in court.

Criminals could face sentences of up to five years in jail or fines of up to five million baht if they disclose private information without consent.

Regarding surrogate or animal bank accounts, the DES Ministry has been investigating the rights of SIM tickets to get abnormalities, according to Mr Prasert.

The NBTC has been given the instructions to get in touch with people who use more than 100 calls per day and who have multiple SIMs. If their proprietors don’t deliver compelling arguments, SIM cards may be suspended, he said.

By the end of December last year, Mr. Prasert claimed that as a result of the president’s assault on horse records, more than 1.6 million bank accounts had already been suspended for suspected references to fraud. He urged those who had these addresses to email their banks to get them closed, as customers are now subject to stricter customer protection laws to stop the use of proxy accounts for deceptive transactions. Additionally, those found guilty of opening accounts for scammers are subject to severe penalties.

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Will DeepSeek deep-six the US economy? – Asia Times

By selling technology companies to immigrants, America has financed a current account deficit that soared to US$ 1.2 trillion in 2024. Tech stocks, however, are trading at valuations not seen since 2000, when the NASDAQ Composite began a descent that wiped out 75 % of its market capitalization by 2002.

If expectations deteriorate regarding synthetic intelligence’s ability to generate revenue, was a technology crash lead to a financing crisis for the United States? The question of the January 27 collision in AI-related stocks in response to less expensive and more effective Chinese rivals still lingers. Every capital investment in the world pays close attention to these issues.

Graphic: Asia Times

Europeans stopped buying US debts of all kinds – Treasury, loan, and business – after the post-Covid prices of 2021 and the Federal Reserve’s subsequent rise in interest rates. That signaled the end of a 40-year bulls industry in US securities. From a 1981 peak of 15 %, the US 30-year bond yield fell in a nearly straight line to an August 2020 low of just 1.41 %.

The inflationary wave of 2021-2022 put an end to this bull work. In March 2022, moreover, the US and its allies seized half of Russia’s$ 600 billion in foreign exchange reserves, prompting other central banks to shift away from US Treasury securities to gold and other assets.

However, the world’s appetite for American tech stocks has been stagnant for the past ten years, which was rekindled by the development of Large Language Models ( LLMs) last year. Are raised valuations for AI-related shares justified? Which two aspects affect how quickly and which industries are most likely to make money from AI?

China’s DeepSeek R1 type appears to have made a model performance discovery: tale layout and related improvements reduce the amount of processing required by one or two orders of magnitude.

DeepSeek, also, offers its unit at a small fraction of the price that its US competitors then charge. That is not always detrimental to the overall US tech sector. If China has a better systems, US companies may choose it speedily, and lower costs for AI simulation does benefit the users of AI models.

US and China compete in seven distinct subcategories of AI uses. China leads most of them, and its Artificial skills are likely to strengthen it. They are

  1. Manufacturing: China has poured huge resources into stock technology. One test is the number of companies outfitted with devoted 5G systems, which support AI applications. China claims 10, 000 for installations, while the US has only a few hundred, concentrated in the automobile industry. The benefit is enormously advantageous for China, and breakthroughs in AI are likely to help. However, US production has had a small influence on equity valuations.
  2. Internet of Things: China is back in simplifying vehicles and warehousing, with entirely mechanical stores now in operation.
  3. China is now a major manufacturer of professional computers, installing more industrial computers each year than the rest of the world combined.
  4. China leads the so-called low level market, which was first cited by federal planners in a December 2024 working papers. Drone taxis, drone deliveries, and other applications are currently a$ 100 billion industry in China, and they are projected to double by 2026.
  5. Autonomous cars: We’ll call this a toss-up between the US and China, although China now has autonomous car companies operating on a smaller scale.
  6. Huge Language Models: afterwards, a toss-up. The Philippines ‘$ 40 billion call center business, which saw the most potential gain from AI systems, includes the gains made by LLMs. However, at this point, there are no guarantees that Bachelor applications will be approved for all of their possibilities because they are so varied and extensive.
  7. Biotech: The US has a distinctive advantage with a powerful medical development system. China has a direct in health statistics, but America’s advanced of large pharmaceutical companies, businesses and venture entrepreneurs give it an edge.

The big question is about LLM’s timing. Although the payoff might be significant, it may not be as quick as anticipated.

LLM deployment in the enterprise still has little to do with organizational performance and human adaptation ( management buy-in, workflow adjustments, etc. ). seems to be years away. Cost savings for specific categories of expenses, such as call centers or repetitive coding tasks, may be easily realized. However, the development of AI for higher-skill work is still in its infancy.

What does this mean for Nvidia’s chipmakers? On the assumption that Nvidia GPUs will provide a lot of this activity, one could argue a bullish case for Nvidia based on all of the AI sectors listed above. However, this hypothesis requires closer scrutiny of Nvidia’s competitive advantages.

Nvidia has a greater advantage in computation when training language and vision models, but less so when inference ( running the resulting models to get useful results ) is at its disposal. Notably, Huawei’s Ascend AI chips already perform fairly well with the new DeepSeek models, with comparable or even better cost performance than the weakened Nvidia H800s ( the weakened Nvidia chip that was cleared for export to China ) &nbsp.

Additionally, the case that the top US tech companies ( the so-called Magnificent Seven ) will control equity returns going forward is much weaker than the market is currently perceptive of it. If we are right, and tech market valuations shrink to some significant extent, what are the macroeconomic implications? Key capital flows are more dependent on a small number of very large companies than at any other time in US history.

Let’s say foreigners reduced their purchases of tech stocks as the value of the stocks declines. The United States would need to sell more bonds to both domestic and foreign investors to pay off its current account deficit and federal budget deficit. The chart below shows the amount of new Treasury debt bought by US banks, US households, foreign official institutions, and foreign private investors, respectively.

Banks stepped in and reabsorbed the$ 4 trillion in Covid subsidies that were funded by the Treasury debt, but by 2023 they had exhausted their savings deposits. Households, who were drawn to the higher interest rates on Treasuries, saw the biggest increase in new investment in Treasury securities. Additionally, foreign private investors decreased their Treasury holdings. &nbsp,

A full-blown financial crisis is most unlikely. The cash-burning dotcoms of 2000 have been replaced by cash-rich monopolies like Microsoft, Google, Apple, Amazon and Meta. By offering higher bond yields to domestic and international investors, the United States can adjust to an air-pocket in the demand for its tech stocks.

However, the DeepSeek shock exposes flaws in Big Tech’s core strategies as well as in the stratospheric valuation of its best-performing stocks. The outcome is likely to be a combination of persistently higher interest rates, slower growth, a decline in wealth, and strong economic headwinds.

Graphic: Asia Times

The S&amp, P’s technology sector, correspondingly, trades at a P/E of 37, compared to an overall P/E for the S&amp, P 500 of 26. That accounts for the largest portion of the difference between the lofty valuations of American stocks and those of European, Japanese, and Chinese stocks.

Graphic: Asia Times

A brass-tacks gauge of equity valuation is the free cash flow (FCF ) yield, namely the ratio of cash income to market price. Investors accept less current income because they anticipate higher income in the future, the higher the FCF is expected to be. For the S&amp, P 500 as a whole, FCF is below 3, a level not seen since the eve of the tech stock crash of 2000.

Graphic: Asia Times

For a monopoly like Microsoft, the free cash flow yield has fallen to just 2, the lowest on record.

Graphic: Asia Times

Between 2020 and 2024, Big Tech invested more than double in capital expenditures, and it is still investing heavily in AI-supporting data centers. The DeepSeek shock raises questions about the viability of these plans economically: If Chinese developers can create cutting-edge models using innovative model architecture designs, the raw computing power under development could be significantly overvalued.

Graphic: Asia Times
Graphic: Asia Times

To entice price-sensitive buyers into the Treasury market, the US government—still running a record peacetime non-recession deficit of 6 % to 7 % of GDP—probably will have to offer higher yields. That’s a problem for the economy and also a problem for the Treasury, which is already paying$ 1 trillion a year in interest, nearly quadruple the service cost of America’s national debt in 2020.

It also puts a headwind in front of the US economy for interest-sensitive activity, particularly housing. Longer-term, the US runs the risk of an Italian-style spiral, in which the rising cost of debt service eats away at the budget and limits what the federal government can do to support the economy.

Steve Hsu is professor of theoretical physics and of computational mathematics, science, and engineering at Michigan State University, and the founder of several AI startups. Follow him on X at @hsu_steve. David P. Goldman serves as Asia Times ‘ deputy editor. Follow him on X at @davidpgoldman

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Three reasons why gold’s record run is different – Asia Times

Gold opened in London January 31 at an all-time history of$ 2.845 an ounce. Platinum is a form of protection from political and financial disasters. More specifically, it has become a special insurance coverage against systemic risk, breaking apart from other resources it used to record – foreign assets and other metals, for instance, as well as inflation-linked Treasuries.

That may worry politicians in Washington.

Trump declared during his election plan,” I may end the war in Ukraine, I will stop the panic in the Middle East, and I will stop World War III from occurring,” adding,” You have no idea how near we are.” Trump vowed to put an end to the Ukraine War within a time of taking office, but peace is still not in view. The West didn’t accept Russia’s primary need for Ukrainian neutrality. Nevertheless, Russia continues to crush out regular gains.

What will the US would if Russia wins the military in a significant way over Ukraine? No single knows, and the price of end-of-the-world healthcare continues to rise.

Gold’s document work is distinctive in three ways.

First, gold stopped trading with other metals, including gold, copper and various professional metal. That partnership lasted from 2007 until the close of 2023. Gold has increased significantly over the past year, while another metal have not.

Next – as we have noted usually – gold traded in combination with the supply of inflation-protected US Treasuries, or TIPS. Both are types of protection against sudden inflation and serious dollar depreciation. However, after the US and its allies seize$ 300 billion of Russian foreign exchange reserves in March 2022, gold became decoupled from TIPS provides. A plan of insurance that the insurer may seize at will is less appealing than gold in a central bank vault.

Third: Different currencies used to indicate a wall against the dollar. The Japanese renminbi, an alternative to the penny, was almost tracked by the silver price. However, in 2022, this marriage ended. For one thing, Japan’s government debt is now 250 % of GDP ( twice the US figure of 120 % ), and the central bank owns more than half of that debt. Japan’s inflation has crept up, eroding consumer purchasing power and weakening the region’s political organizations. The japanese is no longer a haven for foreign currency investors. The Euro, which has the bag of fragile and depressed markets like France and Italy, is not.

The United States must sell more than a trillion dollars of assets to the rest of the world annually with a trade deficit of$ 1.2 trillion and a net international investment position of negative$ 25 trillion. Five years ago, foreign investors stopped purchasing US bill, and since then, the country has been selling tech companies to foreigners to help it balance its trade deficit. A stock market selloff may have negative effects on the US dollar.

During his confirmation hearings, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pointed out that the US federal deficit, which ranges between 6 % and 7 %, is unprecedented for a time without war or recession. As I wrote December 20 in Asia Times, the gap may be Trump’s rival. American businesses now have the ability to cover the majority of the US government’s gap since 2020 as a result of foreign central banks ‘ reductions in their investments of US Treasuries. However, to get interest-sensitive personal investors, it will require either lower interest rates to help banks purchases of Treasuries, which are expansionary, or higher yields on government loan.

Both the global financial picture and the geopolitical balance are becoming more dangerous. Gold’s cost run provides a disturbing measure of risk perceptions, and it has evolved into a unique hedge against both types of risk.

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Thaksin dedicates himself to fixing the economy

Thaksin Shinawatra speaks to supporters in Chiang Rai province on Wednesday. (Photo: Pheu Thai Party)
On Wednesday, Thaksin Shinawatra addresses supporters in Chiang Rai state. ( Photo: Pheu Thai Party )

Thaksin Shinawatra, the former prime minister, pledged to dedicate himself to restoring the country’s economy, which he claims has been really mismanaged, over the next three decades.

In a speech to a group in Chiang Rai’s Phan city, Thaksin outlined the imbalance that the economy is experiencing. He assisted a Pheu Thai applicant in the Feb. 1 local election campaign for votes.

” The market has collapsed global. While people’s incomes vanish, commercial banks ‘ profits rise by 14 % against 3 % GDP growth, showing an economic imbalance caused by past mismanagement”, he said.

He claimed that the current state of the nation’s economy is much worse than it was during the 1997 Asian financial crisis, when the injury was only done to the highest levels of the market.

Thaksin said his daughter, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, has her arms full running the country, but he noted that he was providing aid behind the scenes to help the president’s attempts to revive the business.

He vowed that, in keeping with his promise to do so while serving as the nation’s prime minister, he would devote himself to resolving monetary issues and restoring prosperity over the course of the next three years.

Thailand, according to Thaksin, experienced rapid economic growth and a balanced budget for two straight years, compared to the current state, which has seen years of budget shortfalls and mounting debts.

The government plans to increase agricultural product exports to China, which just agreed to purchase 300, 000 kilograms of tapioca, he said, in an effort to revive the business.

He also pledged to look for ways to raise the prices of other crops, including corn and rubber, by admonishing that there are several ways to pursue raising crop prices, especially for rubber.

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Mahakumbh Mela: Thirty killed in crush at India’s Kumbh Mela festival

13 hours before
Vikas Pandey and Samira Hussain

BBC News, Prayagraj

Zoya Mateen

BBC News, Delhi

At least 30 people have been killed in a crush at the world’s largest religious gathering, the Hindu festival Kumbh Mela in northern India, officials say.

When other pilgrims rushed to take part in a holy day of ceremony cleaning, followers on the rivers of the town of Prayagraj were trampled by additional pilgrims early on Wednesday.

Another 60 people were injured, authorities said. Most of the day was occupied by national casualty figures, which prompted opposition leaders to criticise authorities of a lack of clarity.

Those who lost loved ones expressed sympathies to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Many travelers are also looking for information about relatives and friends.

Getty Images Hindu pilgrims stand inside a lost and found centre after they lost their relatives in crowds during the Maha Kumbh Mela festival in Prayagraj, India on January 28, 2025.Getty Images

Authorities said 90 injured persons had been taken to hospitals. ” Alas, 30 of those followers have died”, senior police officer Vaibhav Krishna told a news conference on Wednesday night.

He said 25 of the deceased had been identified.

Earlier in the day, BBC investigators had witnessed scenes of conflict, with clothing, shoes, blankets and suitcases strewn on the ground as audiences tried to escape the webpage of the injury.

” People were going in every way”, one witness Ayesha Mishra told the BBC. They were “being pushed round and falling.” Babies were being suffocated by the masses.

People were seen on the ground, their injured systems, and their heads covered in mud, according to video and photos taken at the scene. As ambulances shuffled in and out of the spacious camp area for the event, some were being carried away on wheelchairs.

For days, there was uncertainty about how many people had died or were injured.

The major hospital was fenced off and reporters were prohibited from entering. Yogi Adityanath, the deputy minister of Uttar Pradesh express- where Prayagraj is located- spoke of serious accidents, but did not mention incidents.

Prime Minister Modi acknowledged there had been mortality, but he did not specify how some.

In a post on X, he wrote,” I wish for the quick recovery of all injured people,” calling the incident “extremely sad.”

News of the accident did little to discourage the huge crowds thronging the venue – more than 50 million had bathed by 14:00 local time (08:30GMT), according to government figures.

Ankit Srinivas A policeman clearing the road as an ambulance passes by after a deadly stampede before the second "Shahi Snan" (grand bath), at the "Kumbh Mela" or the Pitcher Festival, in Prayagraj, previously known as Allahabad, India, January 29, 2025.Ankit Srinivas

The Kumbh Mela happens every 12 years at Sangam, the confluence of three sacred rivers- the Ganges ( Ganga ), Yamuna and the mythical Saraswati. Hindus think that taking a bath in holy water will make them sin-free and enable them to find salvation.

While the sacred bathroom is the main draw, the celebration is also a lively carnival of beliefs, where people from all walks of lives, including ascetics, politicians and celebrities, merge to enjoy.

The event, which started on January 13 and will continue until February 26, has attracted audiences from all over the country and the world. Some have come alone, individuals with their home, including children and the elderly.

BBC map highlighting in yellow the area of the Kumbh Mela festival and the Sangam nose and where it is in India

Officials estimated crowds of up to 100 million people on Wednesday, making it the biggest and most significant cleaning day of the event. The Shahi snan, or imperial bath, takes a fall in the creek into the sky with thousands of ash-smeared ascetics on it.

By Tuesday night, the place was now inundated with people and a sense of jubilation filled the air. In huge and vibrant procession, glad followers sang and danced. And the following day, people were eager to take a dip.

However, the activities quickly turned into a terrifying moment.

The news of the crush first broke between 01: 00 and 02: 00 local time ( 19: 30- 20: 30 GMT ) when many ambulances were seen entering and leaving the venue.

Ankit Srinivas A devotee wears a scarf around her head and speaks to the press after escaping the crush at India's Kumbh Mela. Ankit Srinivas

When the crowd surged toward the Sangam head, leading to the love, devotees were sleeping around the barricades there, where the rivers intersection, according to eyewitnesses, and the crowd fled.

Citizens began to run in distress, many of them injured. People had torn their clothing.

” People were trampling upon each other because the crowds were so large.” Me and my home, we all fell over”, said Poonam Singh, a follower, who came with seven friends of hers, all of whom were missing.

” I lost all my wealth, my stuff and I didn’t get my home anywhere”, she added.

The conflict was made even more so by uncertainty over what had transpired. Some followers said they had a sense that something was amiss but instead chose to continue because no one had received any assurance from the authorities.

Around 04 :00, when officials began directing people to stop going to the Sangam nose and instead take a dip at the nearest river bank, were the first announcements made.

However, that did not significantly change; by that point, the Sangam’s roads were now crowded.

Tens of thousands of people continued to travel and are still doing so, days after the incident.

EPA Devotees walk near mixed fabrics on the ground following a stampede accident during the Kumbh Mela festival near Sangam Ghat Prayagraj, Uttar Pradesh, India, 29 January 2025. EPA

The ascetics had previously promised to postpone their appearance, but eventually made it to Sangam, where their processions had been reduced.

For some travellers, the hunt for loved ones stretched through the day, and continued into the evening. Some people remained at the scene of the accident, where the victims ‘ boots, clothes, and other items were buried in the mud. Through the noise, odd cries of those who were grieving were pierced.

Anita Devi, from the northern area of Jhansi, said she had spent the entire day looking for her father.

” He needs his medications, but I have them with him.” When the love happened, I lost hold of his hands and he was gone in a blink”, she told the BBC.

” It’s been so some days but I can’t find him. I’m not sure where he might possess gone because there are so many lost-and-found centers this time. I’m making a lot of prayer for his safety and survival.

Ankit Srinivas Officials standing outside a temporary hospital at the Kumbh Mela in Prayagraj city.Ankit Srinivas

Group crushes are common in India, where overcrowding frequently occurs at spiritual gatherings, festivals, and open spaces. Last season, more than 120 people were killed in Hathras city, even in Uttar Pradesh, during a religious meeting.

According to officials, the Kumbh Mela’s position is now under control. However, Indian criticism officials have criticized the government for the fervor.

” Mismanagement, incompetence and government’s special focus on VIP movements instead of typical believers are responsible for this horrible incident”, Rahul Gandhi, opposition leader in parliament, said in a blog on X, calling the affair “extremely unfortunate”.

Some travelers even attributed the disaster to the authorities.

Ayesha Mishra questioned why there wasn’t a policeman presence where the incident occurred.

They were positioned toward the end of the event place, and many of us were suffocated in the middle, she said.

” We do not want to get a holy dip like this”, she added. The state may simply enjoin the public to remain at home at this point.

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Kumbh Mela: ‘We are stuck in a materialistic world. Here, we renounce that’

A distinct group of people known as Kalpwasis can be found among the large crowds at the Kumbh Mela, the largest religious meeting in Prayagraj city in northern India.

They are generally old travelers who spend a month on the banks of the holy Ganges river performing the ritual of Kalpwas. They think this will bring them closer to God and to forgiveness.

Over a million Kalpwasis are alleged to have been camping out in houses spread across the fairgrounds since the start of the Kumbh Mela on January 13 in the dark.

Two of them revealed to the BBC what their typical morning looks like.

Video by Ankit Srinivas, Antriksha Pathania and Anahita Sachdev

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Thailand toughens punishments for scam enablers

Banks, telecommunication, and social media companies will be held accountable for financial losses under a constitutional amendment.

More than 100,000 SIM cards seized from call-centre scam gangs are displayed at a police press conference in October last year. (Photo: Apichart Jinakul)
At a police press conference held in October of last year, more than 100 000 Phone cards were seized from call-center fraud criminals. ( Photo: Apichart Jinakul )

A constitutional change that will keep banks, phone companies, and social media owners accountable for losses caused by call-centre scams has been approved by the Thai authorities.

In addition to an emergency decree on measures to combat tech violence, the Ministry of Digital Economy and Society proposed the shift. The government approved it on Tuesday, said secretary Prasert Jantararuangtong.

Financial institutions, telecommunication, and social media companies would be subject to the amendment’s provisions if it was discovered that their failure to follow anti-scam laws caused economic harm to the general public, the minister said. He did not provide more details about how role may be determined.

Additionally, the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission and telecommunication providers are required to suspend SIM cards that are suspected of being used by fraud. Additionally, it makes it possible for officials to gain stolen wealth to sufferers without having to wait for instances to be settled in court.

Additionally, a maximum sentence of 5 million baht and/or 5 years in prison has been increased for revealing private information without assent.

In order to stop scammers from turning stolen money into online money, the law also forbids trading online assets through peer-to-peer lending platforms.

According to Mr. Prasert,” when the amended decree comes into effect, it does help reduce technology crime and damages to the general public.”

The article would be reviewed by the Council of State, the government’s legal finger, according to government official Jirayu Huangsub, who stated that it would go into effect right away after it was published in the Royal Gazette.

The process may take no longer than 30 time, he said.

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