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The majority of the conversations I hear about China these time revolve around US-China contest or the issue of whether China’s economy will be the dominant force ( my response:” Yes, because it’s really great. But there’s another burden of conversation that’s kind of fascinating, which is whether China is the” Country of the Future” in terms of technology and urbanization.

These discussions, in my opinion, are typically quite vague and perplexing, moving between layout, transportation, consumer systems, manufacturing systems, art, pop culture, soft energy, urban design, and a number of other subjects. That doesn’t mean I think the topic is stupid, &nbsp, vague and confused conversations can be fun! But I thought I’d try to think about Sinofuturism a little more consistently.

As far as I can tell, the recent explosion of Sinofuturism appears to have come from four major options:

• China’s fresh high-tech business model
• The real estate bubble in China left a legacy
• A beauty offensive by China
• The election of Donald Trump

The monetary unit that had fueled China’s economic progress since 2008 almost completely failed in the early 2020s. &nbsp, This model&nbsp, was based on large real estate investment — the biggest growth growth in the history of the world. Local governments generally approved and supported any advancement that may increase the value of property because real estate sales were funded by local governments.

However, the Chinese central authorities encouraged banks to lend to designers as a way of sustaining the macroeconomy through a series of surprises. This consistently led to an future economic bubble and crash when the loans used to finance this extraordinary development boom outran the ability of real estate to make financial returns. In 2021-23, there was a significant knock, and development slowed.

China’s administration responded to this downturn by&nbsp, going all-in on high-tech production. The nation’s lenders poured enormous sums of money into industries like cars, electronics, machine tools, robots, electronics, batteries, plane, and many others at Xi Jinping’s urging.

The government&nbsp, supported the bubble with subsidies&nbsp, when well, though I think we often tend to exaggerate its position relative to the personal initiative of corporations like BYD, Xiaomi, and DJI. That financing increase has since cooled off a little, but it was massive during 2021-23, and business loans continue to grow at a very fast clip:

All that financing fueled a flood of investment in the “technologies of the future”. Many of those were  production  technology in the highly integrated Chinese companies that you can see in movies like this one:

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And some are &nbsp, consumption&nbsp, systems, like the high-speed road network that’s bigger than all the sites in the rest of the world combined:

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This technology boom won’t be enough to bring the nation back to pre-Covid development levels. 1&nbsp, But it has transformed Chinese cities, filling them with modern thing like&nbsp, delivery drones, &nbsp, drone shows, &nbsp, delivery robots, &nbsp, air taxis, high-speed trains, face-recognition payment systems, &nbsp, energy cars&nbsp, with expensive screens in, &nbsp, skyscraper-building machines, and so on.

The rollouts of these technologies faster and more widely than in developed countries, where issues like noise complaints and safety concerns predominate. China ‘s , lax regulatory climate  is partly a result of cozy relations between local government and corporations.

The electronics manufacturing boom ( which actually predates the more recent high-tech push ) has also resulted in a glut of cheap LEDs, which many Chinese developers have plastered all over their high-rise buildings and malls.

This might be partly cultural and aesthetic, but it’s largely&nbsp, an attempt by cities and companies&nbsp, to advertise themselves to businesses and consumers both at home and overseas. Videos of these” cyberpunk” nighttime cityscapes have proliferated on the internet:

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The second big reason for the boom in Sinofuturism is a government charm offensive.

A number of aggressive Chinese actions in the late 2010s and early 2020s, including the claim of the South China Sea and pieces of Indian territory, the rise of “wolf warrior” diplomats, and China’s soft support for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, all contributed to a rise in the negative perceptions of China around the world, both in developed and developing nations. This probably contributed to a&nbsp, massive exodus of foreign capital&nbsp, from the country, as multinational corporations scrambled to diversify and de-risk themselves.

China’s government&nbsp, has responded&nbsp, with a series of” charm offensives” to increase the country’s” soft power” around the world. China is a positive force in the global economy, promoting free trade, battling climate change, spreading high technology, and providing infrastructure investment to developing countries, among other things. And part of the message is that China is the country of the future — a technological and economic powerhouse whose rise is inevitable and should be admired rather than resisted.

This charm offensive is now gaining traction thanks to a flood of Western influencers ‘ pro-China content. Fewer foreigners are &nbsp, living in China, and the number of tourists visiting the country has &nbsp, returned to near its pre-pandemic level.

Yet there has been a massive proliferation of videos, mostly by foreigners, saying” I visited China, and it wasn’t what I expected at all”!, or” I visited China, and America is COOKED”! Here are a few illustrations:

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The most famous of these, by far, is the recent series of videos by the popular internet personality Darren Watkins, better known as iShowSpeed:

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Is it clear whether these people are paid by the Chinese government to produce videos that support a Sinofuturist narrative? In fact, some are, especially the ones made by Western expats living in China. The New York Times&nbsp, reported on this phenomenon&nbsp, back in 2021:

The vibe of the videos is homespun and casual. But on the other side of the camera often stands a large apparatus of government organizers, state-controlled news media and other official amplifiers…State-run news outlets and local governments have organized and funded pro-Beijing influencers ‘ travel, according to government documents and the creators themselves. They have offered or paid the creators. They have generated lucrative traffic for the influencers by sharing videos with millions of followers on YouTube, Twitter and Facebook…With official media outlets ‘ backing, the creators can visit and film in parts of China where the authorities have &nbsp, obstructed foreign journalists ‘ reporting.

In addition, it’s possible that China is using its control of the TikTok algorithm to promote videos like this — or, more likely, that would-be influencers hoping to go viral simply&nbsp, think&nbsp, TikTok will promote them if they spout a bunch of wide-eyed Sinofuturism.

However, it is highly unlikely that government propaganda will explain all, or even the majority of the rise in Sinofuturist videos. 2&nbsp, It’s likely that these videos are just a meme, much like travel to Japan became a meme in the 2010s.

China’s big tech push makes sense, since all those futuristic cars, robots, and drones give foreigners more to fawn over. But the sudden perception of China as the” country of the future” probably owes even more to the property and infrastructure booms that just ended.

Neither the forests of LED-covered skyscrapers, nor the endless miles of high-speed rail, nor the vast shiny new malls that dot China’s city centers would exist if China’s banks hadn’t gone on the mother of all lending binges after 2008. Although drones and robots are cool, travelers ‘ perceptions of any country are predominated by the built environment:

In other words, China’s real estate era may have ended in tears for some developers and local governments, but it left behind the physical edifice of a very futuristic-looking country. When people go to China and see the future, what they’re really seeing is the country’s recent past.

The election of Trump and the political repercussions that followed are the tailwind for Sinofuturism. Trump has very loudly and flamboyantly&nbsp, turned America against Europe&nbsp, — bashing European countries in his rhetoric, hitting them with tariffs and tariff threats, threatening to pull out of NATO, supporting right-wing opposition parties, cozying up to Russia, and so on.

A few European leaders have responded by&nbsp, trying to get closer to China instead, but the majority are still too cautious of the CCP. But European&nbsp, intellectuals&nbsp, are a different story. Some European thinkers resent the smug American superiority that resulted from decades of Cold War patronage, and are overjoyed to see America eclipsed. That geopolitical backdrop easily alters people’s perceptions of a nation, making even the most illiterate seem sublime.

In turbulent and troubling times, people instinctively grasp for some sort of future to believe in — some positive vision to hold on to. America continues to inflict wound after wound on itself due to its intractable cultural and partisan divisions, while Europe is mired in economic stagnation and is struggling to defend itself against a much smaller, poorer Russia right now don’t have much of a futuristic vision.

Sinofuturism might not have been Western intellectuals ‘ first choice for an alternative, but if it’s a choice between Sinofuturism and bleak nihilism/pessimism, some will choose the former. But what will this Chinese future actually look like, two decades or four decades from now? There is, in my opinion, more than meets the eye here.

First, let’s talk about Chinese urbanism. Westerners who visit Asia and witness a lot of tall buildings and electric signs frequently mistakenly believe that every Asian city is essentially the same. But the way China builds its cities is very different from how Japan does it.

Japan’s cities are hyper-agglomerations of dense&nbsp, mixed-use neighborhoods&nbsp, packed with&nbsp, small businesses. Much more urban sprawl can be found in China. Here’s what&nbsp, Peter Calthorpe wrote&nbsp, in 2016, when China was still in the middle of its massive building spree:

Many Chinese cities have high-rise, high-density buildings that one might assume are inherently urban, but they are not. Smart growth and urbanism is more about connections, human scale, walkability, and mixed uses than it is about gross density. China’s pattern of gated superblocks ( often over 40 acres, or 16 hectares, each ) and isolated uses is actually a high-rise version of the American suburb…

Superblocks surrounded by major arterial roads are used to create the largest clusters of single-use residential blocks in China. Vast distances separate everyday destinations and create environments hostile to pedestrians. Crossing the street without dying is a common practice in sidewalks. Job centers are distant and commutes are long, especially for lower-income groups. In major Chinese cities, the gridlock expands to all hours of the day…

China has built more than 30 000 kilometers of expressways over the past five years. [ Like the US cities of the 1950s and 1960s, Chinese cities are working to accommodate the explosive growth of automobile travel by adding more highways, ring roads, and parking lots.

And here ‘s&nbsp, how Dwarkesh Patel put it&nbsp, after a recent trip:

Outside of Beijing and Shanghai, you can tell that these skyscrapers were constructed by a nation with a GDP per capita of$ 10, 000. These endless rows of skyscrapers are ugly: boxes of mostly concrete with visible blight and discoloration all over. If the great construction binge is indeed over, it’ll be a shame that China’s infrastructure was built out during a period of particularly uninspired architecture…The city is dominated by these enormous apartment complexes – blocks of 10 adjacent 30-story buildings demarcated by 8-lane roads…This layout seems designed partly for social control.

A recent article&nbsp, by the ever-excellent Alfred Twu explains China’s urban layout in more detail:

Despite their stark visual dissimilarities, new construction in China and the US each have a single, essential trait: they both support roughly the same population density and have comparable floor plans.

… In contrast to the mid-rises that abound in US cities today, Chinese cities favor what is known as the 小区 ( xiaoqu ) &nbsp, or microdistrict. These residential towers, which are set in a park style, are scattered throughout 15 to 20 acres of wide arterial roads. [X ] iaoqus&nbsp are constructed as gated communities. While primarily residential, the microdistricts also provide stores and services for residents, including schools…However, they do not contain offices or industry, and retail is limited to neighborhood-serving services, such as convenience stores and restaurants…

The sunlight requirement results in large spaces between buildings, limiting the floor area ratio to around 2.0 to 4.0, even for high-rises…closer to 2.0 than to 4.0 once internal roads are factored in…]T] hese buildings are unique to the People’s Republic.

Twu points out that China could theoretically transform its cities into something denser, more mixed-use, and more walkable, like Tokyo, Hong Kong, or Singapore because this urban form is the result of regulation rather than culture, 3&nbsp. But since the big real estate boom is over, the financing or political will for such redevelopment is unlikely to appear. China has already established itself. And even more than the US, China has built itself into a highly suboptimal configuration.

America’s sprawling suburbs are the target of much derision from urbanists worldwide, but they have a charm that’s all their own — huge luxurious houses serve as social gathering places, cars provide mobility, lawns and parks provide the illusion of living close to nature.

Americans of all races and social classes still want to move to the “burbs” ( and are actually moving there ) and that lifestyle has a magnetic pull. And this pull is worldwide — newly developed outlying areas of Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and everywhere else look a lot more like American suburbs than they look like Tokyo or Paris. Whether or not, the urban future that predominated in the 20th century was created in America.

But China will not do the same. Who wants to live in a xiaoqu? You reside in a smallish apartment like you would in a city like New York or Tokyo, but you’re in a gated neighborhood and not close to some of the world’s most vibrant shopping and entertainment districts.

The only things close to you are a sanitized communal lawn and a couple of boring stores for basic necessities. To get anywhere remotely interesting, which in China typically just means a shopping mall, you must either take your car or walk long distances over enormous arterial roads to a train station. You get all of the isolation of the American suburbs with none of the luxury. You’re basically in&nbsp, Cabrini-Green&nbsp, but without the crime.

I have a feeling that very few people around the world will want to reside in microdistricts of Chinese style. And I suspect that in twenty years or so, the children of the current Chinese generation will see this urban form as sterile, cramped, and confining. Except that it will be very challenging to recreate Chinese cities using the American or Japanese models.

As for the spectacular beauty of Chinese downtowns, I suspect that Chinese people themselves are going to get tired of the light pollution that wows the tourists. Already, residents of&nbsp, Shanghai, &nbsp, Chongqing, and other cities have &nbsp, begun to express a preference&nbsp, for fewer gratuitous displays of garish illumination.

There will undoubtedly be many interesting structures left behind by China’s boom in the construction industry. But because the boom was driven by overabundant capital, many of these designs were created more as advertisements for the developers than as places that are actually nice to walk around in. 4.

And the buildings themselves won’t always look as nice as they do now, either. I’m no&nbsp, Brian Potter, but even I know that over the course of about thirty or forty years, reinforced concrete tends to weather, crack, and spall. The majority of China’s urban areas are very humid, and pollution levels are still a high level. As a result, many of the nice new constructions of the country’s buildings, the majority of which were constructed in the last 20 years, will suffer. Buildings that turn out to have been built with substandard materials— and there are &nbsp, some of those out there&nbsp, — will go downhill earlier.

China will then have to choose between paying for repairs and redevelopment to maintain city sturdiness, or repairing and painting outdated buildings to save money. Japan actually chooses the former, which is why it still looks nice — but this eternal construction and beautification costs a&nbsp, lot&nbsp, of society’s resources. Hong Kong and Taiwan have chosen the latter, and as a result, people gush a lot less about the built environment when they visit those cities these days.

I’m aware that visiting a foreign city, admiring the buildings, and making broad conclusions about how strong civilizations will be over the next 2,000 years are all enjoyable. But next time you find yourself gaping at a sparkling new high-rise in Shenzhen or Chongqing or Dubai, remind yourself:” This too shall pass” .5

China has yet to truly transform global culture, which is a crucial component of soft power. Their censorship regime — an inescapable part of their authoritarian system — is constantly hamstringing or deterring Chinese creatives. As China gets richer, its people will spend more on entertainment, and entertainment industries will emerge. However, I believe that this censorship will prevent the creation of truly original and original works of art as well as of innovative new forms of popular entertainment.

20th century America invented 3D animated children’s movies and third-person action-adventure video games, China’s two most celebrated hit cultural products over the past few years have been&nbsp, a 3D animated children’s movie&nbsp, and&nbsp, a third-person action-adventure video game. And yet, the appeal to the world has been elusive. Sinofuturists who trumpeted the fact that Ne Zha 2 grossed more at the box office than any Disney film, neglected to mention that more than 98 % of that money was made inside China.

As for China ‘s&nbsp, technological&nbsp, futurism, there I have more confidence. China’s mastery of the core technologies of the electrical age — batteries and motors — will continue to produce wonders, especially because America has &nbsp, voluntarily forfeited leadership&nbsp, in these technologies for cultural reasons.

Personal air taxis, ultra-fast car chargers, and humanoid robots that can do flips are not the last whiz-bang gadgets you’ll see coming out of China. Nor will China’s innovation be limited to the electrical sphere. The future has never looked more promising for Chinese scientific supremacy due to China’s extensive research spending spree, along with Trump’s extensive cuts to American funding.

But here, too, I would be cautious about projecting out more than a decade or two. To the degree that scientific progress relies on human capital, China is going to start&nbsp, having a tough time&nbsp, in the late 2040s. The population will continue to decline unabated after the large” Alpha” generation works its way through the system:

AI researchers may eventually take over from humans, but China’s fundamental advantage, which is its extraordinarily large number of highly skilled engineers and scientists, starts to lose importance.

Also, much of China’s technological leadership has a darker side. All the tourists love the electric cars and the high-speed trains. However, China is also the world’s leader in electronic surveillance, making it virtually impossible for them to turn their entire nation into a panopticon.

China uses the internet to repress dissent, and AI will make that task easier. I anticipate that AI will make that&nbsp much easier because China’s government has also shown an eagerness to use the internet to spread dissension and&nbsp, stir up hatred&nbsp, in other societies around the world.

Is that a future worth putting our hopes in? Would we really trade our right to dissent and our last shreds of privacy for a ride in an air taxi and a delivery robot at our door? If science and technology’s advancement doesn’t promise to give the majority of people the ability to live their lives as they please, why should we wait for it?

Technological contrivances whose purpose is to enslave me, my family, and my friends do admittedly inspire a certain kind of dreadful awe, but I would rather read that science fiction novel than live in it.

In the end, this is Sinofuturism’s lack of the promise of ennoblement. People now make fun of the American suburbs of the 1950s, or use them as an object of misplaced nostalgia. But if you were to look at that lifestyle — the house, the car, the TV, the telephone — you could see the seed of a way of life so appealing and so free that it would eventually become the global standard.

China is a beautiful country to visit right now, but Sinofuturists who obsess over its neon cities and its cutting-edge technology show a reluctance to move there.

Notes

1 Interestingly, Japan did something a bit similar when its growth slowed after the oil shocks of the 1970s and again after the real estate bust of the 1990s. The country needed to transition from the heavy and chemical industries to the knowledge-intensive sectors, which included electronics, computers, and other things, according to the industrial policy ministry, MITI.

This was somewhat successful — a decent amount of the futuristic Japanese stuff that wowed us in the 80s, 90s, and early 00s was the result of this push, or was the result of parallel efforts in the private sector. It probably led to William Gibson’s visions of a Japan-led cyberpunk future. However, Japan never returned to the rates of growth seen during its catch-up phase, despite the high-tech manufacturing push being sufficient to maintain Japan’s position at the global technological frontier for a long time and possibly boosting its growth.

2 There have been a few scattered allegations that iShowSpeed was paid by the Chinese government. His organization, bsp, refutes the allegations.

3 We know it’s not culture because China’s unregulated “urban villages” and Chinese-descended places like Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore all build much higher density and much more mixed-use spaces, while relying less on cars.

A bare gray concrete rotunda is located beneath a bare white concrete tunnel pointed at an empty sky. 4 The&nbsp, art exhibition&nbsp, is that the Sinofuturist VC David Galbraith&nbsp, described as” sublime” &nbsp. It’s the kind of brutalism that hipsters and culture snobs love to sneer at in the West, but suddenly admire when it’s a foreign country. Galbraith is British, so this exhibit might just be more in line with British tastes than American ones, though.

5 China’s massive high-speed rail network will also be an incredible challenge to maintain ( read&nbsp, this Casey Handmer blog post&nbsp, to understand the details ). Unless ridership stays very very high even on the secondary lines, China’s HSR will probably end up being a significant fiscal drag.

This article was originally published on Noah Smith’s Noahpinion&nbsp, Substack, and is republished with kind permission. Become a Noahopinion&nbsp, subscriber&nbsp, here.

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