China’s news to impose a law that would prevent foreigners entering waters known as the South China Sea (SCS) may serve as the start of a strong military conflict with the US. The rules, known as the Administrative Law Police Techniques for Coast Guard Agencies, may come into force on June 15, 2024.
Harsh incidents between US alliance, the Philippines, and China, have been ratcheting up in recent months. In disputed waters surrounding the Scarborough Shoal, extraordinary film footage from Britain’s Sky News captured a number of large Chinese Coast Guard ships firing water cannons at a smaller Spanish Coast Guard deliver.
In Washington, DC, US President Joe Biden and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. had a meeting to discuss local security immediately before. Under the supervision of their common security agreement, which included protection of coast guard warships when they are under military assault in the South China Sea, Biden reiterated “iron-clad” help for the Philippines.
Since the treaty requires that an “armed” attack be reported to the United Nations Security Council ( UNSC ) in the first instance, China’s use of water cannons, even though potentially lethal, has to date not been construed as such. The Philippines undoubtedly did not report the Sky News-filmed tragedy to the UNSC.
However, Marcos stated at the end of May Shangri-la Security Dialogue in Singapore that” a Filipino resident was killed by a deliberate act is extremely close to what we would consider a war work.” Is that a dark collection? About truly”.
Since any arrests made under China’s new legislation are likely to be conducted at gunpoint, increasing the likelihood of a fatal incident, this dark line will be even redder starting on June 15.
Marcos Jr has characterized China’s enforcement of the law as “escalatory” and “different” from whatever Beijing had recently imposed in the contested and geopolitical sea region, of which China claims nearly 90 % under its nine- dash line.
It would not be difficult to imagine Chinese coastline guard vessels being immediately confronted by US warships now patrolling the region in order to uphold freedom of navigation if Manila was forced to summon its mutual defense treaty for British assistance.  ,
In that case, Biden would likely have to respond affirmatively, which would put off worries from American allies who are already agitated about signing formal security agreements with Washington, not the least of which is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization ( NATO ).
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stated at Singapore’s Shangri-la Dialogue that “despite these ancient clashes in Europe and the Middle East, the Indo-Pacific has remained our focus drama of function” in further underlining Washington’s rely on the Indo-Pacific at a time of spiraling tensions in the South China Sea.
Chinese Lieutenant General Jing Jianfeng scornfully responded, saying that the US Indo-Pacific strategy was intended to” create division, provoke confrontation, and undermine stability.”
Given Austin’s apparent refocus on the Indo-Pacific, it seems likely that any Philippines request for US military assistance would receive favorable reviews in Washington, likely resulting in Democrats and Republicans in Congress receiving overwhelmingly bipartisan support.
Interestingly, one of Washington’s staunchest allies, the United Kingdom, having significant naval resources deployed in the South China Sea, may be girding itself for such an eventuality.
The sudden and unexpected announcement by UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak that a July 4 election date was at least in line with Britain’s and America’s on its Independence Day coincided with a proposal for national service, ostensibly in order to prepare for war and perhaps in the South China Sea.
It may be a conflict Washington is prepared for, with the exception of the disastrous global financial and economic shock waves that are likely to result from any direct US-China military conflict, with one key restriction: any direct military conflict occurring exclusively within the South China Sea region.
When one considers the Korean War from 1950 to 1953, it might not seem like such a far-fetched scenario. Around two million US service members fought ferociously against three million Chinese and 100 000 Soviet troops during this conflict, along with their respective South and North Korean allies.  ,
Yet it was a conflict contained by then- US, Chinese and Soviet leaders, Truman, Mao and Stalin, respectively, within the territorial limits of the Korean Peninsula, deliberately avoiding spillover into the broader global context of the then- young Cold War.
Hopefully, a direct military conflict, including a limited theater war, will be avoided and ongoing diplomacy in various areas of cooperation between the US and China will prevail. However, a peaceful outcome should n’t be taken for granted.  ,
Tensions in Taiwan and the South China Sea are almost on the rise by the day. Beijing and Washington are also experiencing increased trade frictions as more sanctions are placed on US tech exports to China, as well as new punitive tariffs on imports of Chinese green technology, including EVs.  ,
Meantime, accusations over Chinese President Xi Jinping’s support for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Ukraine war appear to be intensifying in Western circles. These include the UK Defense Secretary’s unsupported assertions that China directly supplied Russia with military supplies.
Additionally, US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell has claimed that Chinese support was effectively reconstituting Russia’s military in the form of drones, artillery, long- range missiles and tracking of battlefield movements.
During a visit to Brussels at the end of May, Campbell stated that this is a sustained, comprehensive effort that is intended to support Russia in secret.
One cannot merely dismiss the dangers brought on by US-China rivalry on numerous fronts, much like they did in the lead-up to the First World War when European powers competed for supremacy on the continent.
In today’s equally polarized and militarized environment, it is vitally important to identify and calm any potential trigger points, whether accidental or not, that may explode into a catastrophic, earth- shaking regional conflict.
The death of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand on June 28, 1914, in a nation in Southeast Europe, was the start of the First World War. The death of a Filipino sailor in the tropical waters of Southeast Asia could be the catalyst this time.  ,
The US and China must ensure they do n’t sleepwalk into a repeat of the 1914 tragedy in the second half of June 2024 or, indeed, at any point in the future.
Bob Savic is Senior Research Fellow, Global Policy Institute, London UK and Visiting Professor, School of International Relations and Politics, University of Nottingham UK.