Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has described the presence of a Russian attack submarine in his nation’s exclusive economic zone ( EEZ ) in the South China Sea as “very worrisome” in a potential escalation of great power rivalry there.
On November 28, a ,  , Russian Kilo-class underwater was sighted just 80 coastal miles off the eastern Spanish territory of Occidental Mindoro.  ,
” That’s very concerning. Any intrusion into the West Philippine Sea, of our EEZ, of our baselines, is very worrisome”, the Filipino president told reporters on Monday ( December 2 ).
The Russian underwater soon became known as UFA 490 and clarified its non-lethal purpose when the Philippine military fleet Jose Rizal made radio contact with it in response to the incursion.
Without providing any further details, Philippine Navy spokesman Roy Vincent Trinidad stated in a speech that the Soviet vehicle” stated it was awaiting improved weather conditions before going to Vladivostok, Russia.”  ,
Admiral Trinidad tried to downplay the incident as” not alarming”, in apparent contradiction to Marcos Jr’s statement, but underscored how the Philippines was” surprised because this is a very unique submarine” . ,
Russia’s official in Manila did no comment on the matter despite press inquiries. Is it still unclear whether the Russian submarine was the updated version of the Kilo II ( Project 636.3 ) submarine from 2014 to 2016?
However, according to Russian media outlets, the 74-meter ( 243-foot ) long marine asset is armed with a missile system with a range of 12, 000 kilometers (7, 450 miles ).  ,
Following a combined practice with the Malay army, the Russian submarine was headed back to Vladivostok, Russia’s east town, according to Philippine National Security Council official Jonathan Malaya. The practice came on the feet of historic , Indonesia-Russia marine drills , in the area last month.
Spanish authorities, following contact with the ship’s crew and appropriate Russian counterparts, reported that the submarine surfaced according to weather-related conditions.  ,
Judicial intrusion
Major local experts are perplexed by the incident, and the legal context surrounding the Russian vessel’s presence in Philippine waters has also raised questions.  ,
An attack underwater managing clearly and clearly in the high seas ( this is outside the territorial sea ) is not much of a threat, according to the report. Channels are for cunning and walk problems, not sailing on the surface”, Jay Batongbacal, a leading sea rules analyst based in Manila,  , wrote on his , X accounts.  ,
Foreign militaries are entitled to “innocent passage” across the Exclusive Economic Zone of coastal states under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea ( UNCLOS), but doing so should not be done in vain.
And any military deployment across another state’s EEZ is no longer considered ,  , “innocent” if it represents “any threat or use of force against the sovereignty, territorial integrity or political independence of the coastal State” . ,
The UNCLOS has a special for submarines , ( Article 20 ), which are required to ascertain their ‘ innocent passage’ by temporarily “navigat]ing ] on the surface…to show their flag”. The majority of UNCLOS members grant their 12 nautical miles of territorial waters the right to free section.
However, major countries such as India, China and Iran have imposed , limits on the tuberculous presence , of extraregional power perhaps across their EEZs.  ,
For two main reasons, the Philippines is especially troubling by Russia. For one, Moscow and Beijing have declared a ,” no limits” partnership , and simultaneously called for a’ new world order’, a strong alliance that has gained greater intensity following Russia’s war of Ukraine in 2022.  ,
The two nations have also stepped up their , defense cooperation , in East Asia, including in fiercely disputed and geopolitically delicate waters. In July of this year, they , conducted live-fire , marine tasks in the South China Sea.
For the Philippines, Russia could possibly strengthen China’s growing military supremacy in the region, if never directly help the Asiatic power in the event of a disaster, including over Taiwan.
The Philippines is also concerned about Marcos Jr.’s deteriorating path of diplomatic ties. Recently, then-President Rodrigo Duterte made several trips to both Beijing and Moscow in a bid to build a new proper position.
The former Filipino president even described his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, as , his , “favorite hero”  , and , “idol”,  , underscoring the depth of their personal and friendly relations.
Encouraged by Duterte’s manner and sensing, Russia quickly stepped up defence cooperation with the Philippines, America’s only full-fledged common defense treaty ally in Southeast Asia.
Consequently, Russian , vessels docked in Manila Bay for the first time in past. Duterte individually boarded one of the visiting Russian warships, where he , called upon his friends from Moscow to remain “our ally to protect us “—yet another thinly veiled shot at the US, which was often the goal of Duterte’s criticism, sending diplomatic relations into a tailspin.
In another first, Russia also deployed , a defense attaché , to Manila to explore big-ticket defense deals, including , the potential purchase , of submarines. The strategic flirtation , culminated in Russia’s delivery of firearms to the Philippine National Police ( PNP ), which Washington sanctioned over its human rights record, and a , record$ 227 deal for acquisition of Russian helicopters.
However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Duterte’s subsequent exit from office ushered in a new era of tensions between Manila and Moscow. While Duterte , distanced himself , from Putin’s war of aggression, his successor Marcos Jr punitively nixed a Russian Mi-17 helicopter deal in favor of American kit.  ,
Throughout the ongoing war, the Philippines has also repeatedly voted in favor of Ukraine on important UN resolutions, much to Russia’s chagrin. Additionally, Marcos Jr. accepted an invitation to a Western-backed” Peace Summit” earlier this year in order to gain international support for Kyiv and was one of the few regional leaders to personally host Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.  ,
The Ukrainian leader thanked the Philippine leadership for its” clear position” on Russia’s “occupation of our territories” and , sought non-lethal assistance , from the Philippines, especially in terms of healthcare professionals and post-war recovery.
Indeed, in many ways, Marcos Jr has positioned the Philippines as a core member of an emerging “alliance of democracies” facing off against the non-Western powers of Moscow and Beijing.  ,
Russia flexing regional muscles
Putin’s Russia has withstanded a first round of Western sanctions and battlefield assaults, as evidenced by his earlier this year visits to Mongolia, North Korea, and Vietnam.
Russia is also determined to keep its footing in the regional defense markets while increasing joint exercises and military exports to numerous Asian nations, including Southeast Asia.  ,
Russia and the Philippines may be on a collision course with the deployment of advanced missile systems in the future, especially as Washington makes preparations for possible conflicts with China over Taiwan.
In response to the Philippines ‘ , decision to semi-permanently host,  , if not purchase, the much-vaunted , US Typhon missile system in its northern bases, China’s defense spokesperson, Senior Colonel Wu Qian, accused Manila of “intensif]ying ] geopolitical confrontation and escalat]ing ] tensions in the region”.
The Philippines should reconsider hosting American weapons systems, which have the capability to target southern Chinese military bases, has been reiterated by China’s People’s Liberation Army ( PLA ).
This week saw a full display of geopolitical tensions when the Philippine and the Chinese maritime forces engaged in yet another incident close to the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, with each side giving contradictory accounts of the near-clash.
Earlier this year, Russia warned Japan against deploying US-made missile units to , Japan’s southwestern Kagoshima and Okinawa prefectures, which are close to Taiwan. Russia will consider deploying short- and intermediate-range missiles on its eastern borders in response to any significant US-backed missile buildup, according to deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov.  ,
Earlier this year, the Russian president also warned America’s” satellite state” allies to reconsider hosting any major American missile system. It is well known that the United States produces these missile systems and has already tested them in Denmark and Europe for exercises. Quite recently, it was announced that they are in the Philippines” . ,
The Philippines ‘ decision to host the US Typhon missile system and possibly even acquire it will likely stoke a tussle with Beijing as well as Moscow, which is averse to any significant US buildup on its eastern and western flanks.
The Philippines is suddenly at the center of a new Cold War conflict between China, Russia, and its authoritarian allies on one side and the US and its democratic allies on the other.
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Rich Heydarian