Myanmar coup: The soldiers refusing to fight
Kevin Kim/BBCThe Myanmar military is suffering defections from its forces and is finding it hard to recruit. In exclusive interviews, newly-defected soldiers tell the BBC that the junta, who seized power in a coup two years ago, is struggling to suppress the armed pro-democracy uprising.
“No-one wants to join the military. People hate their cruelty and unjust practices,” says Nay Aung. The first time he tried to leave his base he was badly beaten with a rifle butt and called a “traitor”.
He managed to escape the second time and flee across the border to Thailand with the support of opposition groups.
“One of my friends is in the resistance,” he says. “I called him and he told people here in Thailand about me. I arrived here with their help.”
He’s now living in a safehouse along with 100 other newly-defected soldiers and their families. These men, who refused to fight their own people, are now in hiding so we are not using their real names. They’re being housed and protected by the very resistance movement they were ordered to fight.
Since the military seized power in a coup in February 2021, more than 13,000 soldiers and policemen have defected, according to the exiled National Unity Government of Myanmar (NUG). They are offering cash incentives and support to try and get more soldiers and police officers to switch sides.
At 19, Maung Sein is the youngest in the safehouse. He joined the military when he was just 15 years old.
“I admired the military,” Maung Sein says, and he wanted to make his family proud. But the military’s violent crackdown on the nationwide uprising demanding democracy has dramatically changed people’s view of men in uniform.
“We saw online people calling us ‘military dogs’,” he says – the animal term is one of the biggest insults in Myanmar. “That made me sorry and sad.”
Maung Sein says foot soldiers like him couldn’t disobey “orders from above” to “kill civilians and burn villages”.
But he also left because he thinks the military is in a weak position.
Ethnic armed organisations in the border regions alongside a network of civilian militia groups, called the People’s Defence Forces (PDF), are proving to be a much stronger force than many expected and the Myanmar military has lost control of large parts of the country.
In Magway Division and Sagaing Division, places that previously provided the military with many recruits, young people are instead joining the civilian militia.
Before managing to defect, Maung Sein’s unit was ordered to “attack and destroy” a PDF training camp.
The operation didn’t go well. Seven of his fellow soldiers were killed before they were ordered to retreat. “They [the PDF] have a better strategy,” he says, “which makes them stronger.”
The PDF enjoys widespread public support and villagers provide intelligence about the military’s movements and shelter the young militia fighters.
Capt Zay Thu Aung spent 18 years in the air force. He defected a year after the coup in February 2022.
“They are under attack across the country,” he says, reflecting on the state of Myanmar’s army, “and they don’t have enough men to fight back.”
This is why, he says, the military is increasingly using the air force.
In recent months the military has carried out devastating air strikes across the country. Since January there have been more than 200 reports of air attacks. The deadliest airstrike hit the Pa Zi Gyi village in Sagaing region in April, killing more than 170 people, including many women and children.
“Without the air force, it’s very likely that the military will fall,” Capt Aung predicts.
Like the other defectors, everyone in his family was proud of him when he was chosen as an air force cadet. In those times, he says, it was an honour to be part of Myanmar’s military. The coup, he says, “pulled us down the abyss”.
“Most of the people I lived with in the air force were not bad people. But since the coup, they’ve been acting like monsters.”
He’s the only one in his unit who has defected, though. Most of his friends have “kept fighting against my people”, he says.
Despite the Myanmar military’s critical role in the country’s affairs, its exact size is unknown. Most observers estimate at the time of the coup it was around 300,000 but now is much lower.
The resistance has used new technologies like video games alongside traditional crowdfunding mechanisms to raise money, much of it individual donations from the diaspora.
They have managed to raise significant sums this way but they lack access to military grade weapons or fighter jets.
The National Unity Government has offered to pay $500,000 (£405,000) to regime pilots or sailors who defect with a military aeroplane or navy vessel, but so far no-one has done this.
With the Myanmar military strategy turning increasingly to the air, with devastating consequences, the BBC follows those fighting back.
And on BBC News on Sat 3 Jun at 04:30, 23:30 and Sunday 4 Jun 02:30 BST
Or listen to Assignment on BBC World Service
Capt Aung says it’s not easy to leave after being “indoctrinated for years” and that he, too, feared being seen as a traitor.
“There is a saying in the Myanmar military that you leave when you’re dead.”
Russia’s role
Before defecting, Capt Aung worked on a major upgrade of the capital Naypyidaw’s airport to prepare for the arrival of advanced fighter jets from Russia, the Sukhoi Su-30M.
Capt Aung takes us through the satellite imagery of the airport. He shows us where he used to live and where he helped build three open sheds to house the six Sukhoi Su-30M’s ordered.
These fighter jets represent “the most advanced aircraft in the arsenal of the Myanmar military,” says Leone Hadavi from Myanmar Witness, who has been monitoring the aircrafts the military is using.
He says the Sukhoi Su-30M is an advanced multi-role fighter jet that has both air-to-air and air-to-ground capabilities in the version that was exported to Myanmar.
It has a greater capacity to carry weapons than the Russian-made Yak-130s that have been regularly sighted in recent airstrikes.
Capt Aung says as part of the agreement two test pilots from Russia and a repair crew of 10 people would stay for “one year during the entire warranty period”. He was involved in building their accommodation.
Others from the Myanmar air force were sent to Russia. “Altogether more than 50 people were sent to be trained to operate these planes,” he tells us.
Two of the six fighter jets have arrived in Myanmar and been put on display at military parades. They have not yet been sighted in the conflict.
In the face of international sanctions and condemnation from its neighbours, the Myanmar military has become increasingly isolated. The latest round of UK sanctions in March attempted to target the military’s access to fuel.
But Russia – who has long-running ties with the Myanmar military – has stepped up to become their strongest foreign backer.
The United Nations Special Rapporteur for Myanmar, Tom Andrews, says Moscow is by far Myanmar’s largest arms dealer. According to his report released in May, Russia has shipped over 400 million dollars’ worth of arms to Myanmar since the coup.
These come from 28 Russian entities, including state-owned ones. The report says 16 of those suppliers have been sanctioned by some countries for their role in Russia’s war in Ukraine. And that these weapons have been used to “commit probable war crimes and crimes against humanity” in Myanmar.
In the air, the people’s resistance is trying to fight back with drones.
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Khin Sein, 25, leads a team of female drone pilots who adapt civilian drones to drop home-made bombs on military targets.
She was a university student and took part in the mass protests sparked by the coup before taking up arms.
“We don’t have the resources like the military but we don’t dwell on this,” she says from her jungle camp.
“Compared with a plane, our drone is like a sesame seed. It can go far when you have many sesame seeds,” she says.
“If we fly high, like 300 metres above, they don’t even know that we are coming. So we can attack them effectively and they are scared of drones.”
From his hideout across the border in Thailand, Capt Aung now shares his air force intelligence with those like her, fighting for democracy.
“By listening to the sound at night, can we distinguish between a fighter jet and a civilian plane?” comes the crackled voice over Zoom in the back room of his house.
“We share our knowledge in the best way we can”, Capt Aung says after the meeting.
It is complex for him, “on a personal level, my brothers, friends and teachers whom I lived with, I have no hatred for them,” he tells us.
But this cause is bigger. “It’s not about individuals, we are fighting an institution.”
And he’s happy, he says because “I’m working for my country. I’ll support the revolution in whatever way I can until it’s over.”
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1 February 2022
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Ben Roberts-Smith: How war hero’s defamation case has rocked Australia
Getty ImagesFor months on end, Australia’s most-decorated living soldier sat stoically in a Sydney courtroom as dozens of witnesses accused him of war crimes, bullying peers, and assaulting his mistress.
But Ben Roberts-Smith was not the one on trial.
The 44-year-old had brought the case, suing three Australian newspapers over a series of articles in 2018 which he says defamed him. He argues they ruined his life by painting him as a callous man who had broken the moral and legal rules of war, disgracing his country in the process.
But the media outlets say they reported the truth, and have set out to prove it.
It is the first time in history any court has been tasked with assessing allegations of war crimes by Australian forces.
Warning: This article contains descriptions of violence which readers may find upsetting.
Lasting 110 days and costing up to an estimated A$25m ($16.3m, £13.2m), the trial has heard extraordinary and at times bizarre evidence about every facet of Mr Roberts-Smith’s life.
It sparked a media frenzy, captured national attention, and has made Mr Roberts-Smith the public face of accusations of Australian war crimes in Afghanistan.
After sifting through volumes of evidence, this week a judge is due to deliver a verdict in the historic case.
Hero or criminal?
When Mr Roberts-Smith finished his final tour of Afghanistan in 2012, he returned home a hero.
He received Australia’s highest military award – the Victoria Cross – for having single-handedly overpowered Taliban machine-gunners who had been attacking his Special Air Service (SAS) platoon.
More accolades and admiration followed. He was crowned Father of the Year in 2013, appointed to high-profile executive positions, given prestigious speaking engagements and featured in massive portraits in the Australian War Memorial.
But Mr Roberts-Smith’s shiny public image was shattered in 2018 when journalists Nick McKenzie, Chris Masters and David Wroe started publishing articles about his alleged misconduct in The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age and The Canberra Times.
The newspapers claim Mr Roberts-Smith was involved in six murders of unarmed prisoners or civilians while deployed in Afghanistan between 2009 and 2012 – which he strenuously denies.
According to the newspapers, these included a handcuffed farmer the soldier had kicked off a 10m cliff – a fall which knocked out the man’s teeth, before he was subsequently shot dead.
Another was a captured Afghan teenager so terrified a witness recounted him “shaking like a leaf”. He told the court Mr Roberts-Smith later claimed to have shot him in the head, boasting it was “the most beautiful thing I’ve ever seen”.
The Federal Court also heard that Mr Roberts-Smith had used a machine gun to kill a captured fighter whose prosthetic leg was then taken as a trophy, and later used by troops as a drinking vessel. Other murders were ordered by him to initiate or “blood” rookies, the papers claim.
The Geneva Convention – international rules intended to limit the savagery of war – prohibits the torture, killing or cruel treatment of prisoners, while also offering protections to wounded and sick soldiers.
“Not a single one of the murders we allege… involved decisions that were made in the heat of battle… the ‘fog of war,'” said Nicholas Owens, a barrister for the newspapers.
But Mr Roberts-Smith says he has always honoured the rules of engagement. He argues five of the killings occurred legally during combat, and a sixth didn’t happen at all.
The former SAS corporal’s legal team argues the most serious allegations Mr Roberts-Smith faces were made up by jealous colleagues – “liars” and “gossips” – to smear him.
“What he did not expect was that having been awarded the Victoria Cross, he would have a target on his back,” his barrister Arthur Moses told the court.
The journalists had “jumped on the rumours like salmon jumping on a hook”, publishing them as fact, they said, arguing that the trial evidence – once weighed – would exposed them as inconsistent, “fanciful” and “salacious”.
To support their claims, the newspapers called witnesses including Afghan villagers, a federal minister, and many former or serving elite soldiers.
They ended up unearthing even more damaging allegations. One of Mr Roberts-Smith’s close friends – who gave evidence anonymously – said there were another three alleged murders in Afghanistan that Mr Roberts-Smith was accused of being involved in, in addition to those outlined in the newspapers’ case.
Much evidence was also devoted to claims Mr Roberts-Smith bullied peers. The war hero conceded he had punched a fellow soldier in the face in front of their entire patrol, but denied threatening another with “a bullet in the back of the head” if his performance didn’t lift.
But Mr Roberts-Smith’s versions of events were at other times corroborated by witnesses, along with official field reports, though the newspapers allege these were falsified to cover up crimes.
Astonishing evidence on other issues also emerged during the defamation case, including:
- Admissions from Mr Roberts-Smith that he had set fire to several laptops to wipe his data
- Claims he had buried classified information inside a child’s lunchbox in his backyard
- Testimony from a private investigator that Mr Roberts-Smith had asked him to take the blame for anonymous, threatening letters to soldiers who were co-operating with war crimes inquiries.
Mr Roberts-Smith also watched on as his ex-wife Emma described the moment a woman with whom he’d had an extra-marital affair turned up at the family home, unannounced and nursing a black eye, saying she had become pregnant with his baby.
The woman – whose identity is protected – cried on the witness stand as she recounted the evening when she alleges Mr Roberts-Smith punched her in a hotel room, after she had embarrassed him at an event. He denies this and claims her injury was caused by a fall at the event.
Mr Roberts-Smith has not been charged over any of the allegations and no findings have been made against him in a criminal court.
‘Code of silence’
But the evidence also put a spotlight on the usually hidden world of the SAS.
In November 2020, a landmark report found credible evidence that Australian forces had unlawfully killed 39 civilians and prisoners in Afghanistan from 2007 to 2013.
The head of the Australian Defence Force said it laid bare an unchecked “warrior culture” among some soldiers – particularly within the SAS – who had allegedly taken “the law into their own hands”.
The trial heard from retired and serving SAS soldiers who said any potential misconduct was rarely reported due to a “code of silence” within the regiment, while others defended their actions as necessary.
Many giving evidence were there unwillingly, having been subpoenaed, and three refused to speak about some allegations fearing self-incrimination.
One soldier, who testified that he witnessed Mr Roberts-Smith execute someone, said he resented being compelled to give evidence against him.
“I still don’t agree with the fact [Mr Roberts-Smith] is here, under extreme duress, for killing bad dudes we went over there to kill,” he said.
Almost three years after the landmark Brereton Report, local media have reported more than 40 soldiers are being investigated for their roles in alleged war crimes, but charges have only been laid against one.
And so the judgement in Mr Roberts-Smith’s defamation trial is a huge moment for Australia – both legally and culturally – says Peter Stanley, the former principal historian at the Australian War Memorial.
Soldiers serving under Australia’s banner have almost certainly committed war crimes over the last century, he says, but up until this year none had ever been charged.
And while the broader population may not always agree with the wars Australia has fought, there has long been “great pride in the way in which [it] has fought – this is what’s known as the Anzac legend”.
“The Ben Roberts-Smith episode is just a precursor to the major series of war crimes investigations, allegations, prosecutions, and possibly convictions that we’ll see over the next few years,” he told the BBC.
“It certainly made [him] the litmus test.”
What happens now
The judge – Anthony Besanko – will first decide if the articles are defamatory, and if so, he’ll then consider any defences.
In Australia defamation is a civil matter, meaning the burden of proof is lower than the “beyond a reasonable doubt” standard required during criminal cases. The newspapers only have to prove the allegations are more likely to be true than not.
They argue that proving even one of the six murders alleged, to that standard, could be enough to win the case.
But the law says Judge Besanko must take particular care in weighing the strengths and weaknesses of the evidence if there are grave consequences for those involved.
The criminal allegations being made by the media outlets fell “at the very highest end of objective seriousness… [and] strike at the very heart of Mr Roberts-Smith’s morality and humanity,” the soldier’s barrister Arthur Moses said in closing.
The stakes are also high for the newspapers, with experts saying a loss could result in the highest defamation payout in Australian history.
“We need to remind ourselves that the legal case is not a war crimes trial,” Mr Stanley says.
“[But] there’s a lot riding on this outcome – it’s not just the reputation of one man, it’s our faith in the defence force… and our faith in the system of media that we rely on to give us a truthful and accurate version of the world.”
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19 November 2020
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Macau facing increased restrictions under expanded security law
Getty ImagesA new national security law has come into effect in the Chinese territory of Macau, widening punishments for any opposition to Beijing.
The legislation puts greater emphasis on preventing foreign interference in the special administrative region.
It expands on legislation first introduced in Macau in 2009.
Macau’s government says the changes are in line with legislation in Hong Kong, where Beijing has strictly tightened control following political turmoil.
The original national security law laid out seven major crimes such as treason, subversion, theft of state secrets and foreign collusion – with punishments of up to 25 years in jail.
Another of these offences, secession, has now been expanded to cover non-violent acts.
Meanwhile, opposition to any central government department and the ideology in Beijing can be punished under the updated definition of subversion.
Macau police also now have the power to target suspects outside the city itself.
Critics say the new law severely restricts people’s liberties and rights in the territory.
Jason Chao, former president of pro-democratic political party the New Macau Association, called it “deeply concerning”.
“Local journalists described the current situation as the ice age and unfortunately the ice age is going to get colder,” he told BBC World Service’s Newshour programme.
“The most worrying point is that people would not know whether or not they were committing a crime if they tried to criticise the government. We have observed how the national security law in Hong Kong has been vaguely interpreted,” he said.
Mr Chao added that it was unclear whether the authorities of Macau or those of mainland China would come after those deemed to have broken the law.
The former Portuguese colony of 682,000 people occupies a small peninsula and two islands off China’s southern coast.
It has a separate legal system from the Chinese mainland and the city has capitalised on its long history as a gambling centre, drawing many visitors from China and Hong Kong.
Since the handover from Portugal in 1999, Macau’s legislature has largely rubberstamped Beijing’s orders.
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25 January
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28 June 2022
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Nvidia to turn Taiwan into a world-class AI hubÂ
Nvidia, a California-based graphic processing unit maker, is going to build a world-class artificial intelligence research center in Taiwan to accelerate its Omniverse project, a computing platform that supports 3D applications.
The announcement was made after the United States firm’s share price surged 24.6% to US$380.6 in a single day on May 24. On Tuesday, the valuation of Nvidia hit $1 trillion, making it the first US chipmaker to join the trillion-dollar club.
Because of this, Nvidia’s founder and chief executive Jensen Huang quickly gained the nickname “One-trillion man” in Taiwan, on top of his reputed status as the “godfather of AI.”
Nvidia’s shares had dropped by 50.3% to $146.14 at the end of last year from $291.11 a year earlier as the US kept tightening the export of high-end chips to China. Last August, the US government banned Nvidia from selling its A100 and H100 chips to China and Russia.
The shares have rebounded by 166% so far this year as the company vowed to invest in AI technology.
Nvidia will hire 1,000 people and invest up to TWD24.3 billion (US$790 million) in its new AI research center, or AI University, which will be jointly managed by the National Taiwan University. It has secured a subsidy of TWD6.7 billion from the Taiwanese government for this project.
Chip war takes a toll
Meanwhile, Huang told the Financial Times that further escalation of the chip war between China and the US would cause enormous damage to US companies .
He said China will make more semiconductors itself if it can’t buy them from US companies. He said US lawmakers should be thoughtful while regulating or they will hurt the technology sector.
Huang also told a global media roundtable at the Computex Taipei industry expo on Tuesday that existing chip makers should continue to work hard to stay competitive and not underrate China’s ability to catch up in the industry.
He said China will cultivate its own chip companies amid the US sanctions, and that is why many GPU startups have been created in the country.
Currently, key Chinese GPU and AI chip makers include MetaX, Birentech, Enflame and Horizon. Many of these companies outsource their chip production to overseas foundries such as Taiwan’s TSMC.
Last October, media reports said Washington asked TSMC not to produce high-end chips for Birentech after the Shanghai-based firm claimed that its BR100, a 7 nanometer GPU chip, is faster than the A100 in AI processing.
China’s markets
In August 2022, Nvidia’s A100 and H100 chips were added to a US export control list as the government said the products could be routed to or utilized by a “military end use” or “military end user” in China and Russia. Nvidia was also barred from shipping its DGX, an AI server, to China if a unit contained one of the two chips.
At the same time, the US government also restricted sales of AMD’s MI250 Accelerator AI chip to China.
Last November, Nvidia said it would relocated its regional warehouse from Hong Kong to Taipei. It also introduced to the Chinese markets the A800, which is similar to the A100 but works at 400 gigabytes per second while the A100 operates at 600 gigabytes per second. Due to this difference, the A800 satisfies the US government’s export requirements.
Nvidia has a 60–70% share in the global GPU market while some cloud service providers, which develop application-specific integrated circuit chips, seize over 20% of the market, according to TrendForce, a Taiwan-based industry data provider.
Nvidia will be able to maintain its market dominance with a strong demand of its A100 in the US and A800 in China, as well as the growing demand arising from the development of chatbots and AI computations, said TrendForce analysts. Globally, GPU chip shipments will grow 46% year-on-year in 2023, they added.
Currently, Nvidia can still sell or ship high-performance computing hardware to China by obtaining a special export license. However, it remains possible that Nvidia will be banned from selling its A800 to the country one day.
Anton Shilov, a columnist at Tom’s Hardware, wrote in March that Nvidia will lose hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue if it cannot get licenses to sell the A800 and other products to Huawei and Inspur. He said it will not be easy for the company to replace these two Chinese customers with others.
His comments came after Inspur, the world’s third largest server maker, was added to the US Department of Commerce’s “entity list” in early March this year. Huawei has been on the list since 2019.
Two-year preparation
Nvidia has spent two years preparing for the launch of its Taiwanese AI project, which will help Taiwan nurture AI talents and offer a platform for academic use, said the Ministry of Economic Affairs. The project will be implemented within the five years ending March 2027, it said.
Separately, the company said Monday that it will build an AI cloud supercomputer in Israel for several hundred million dollars. The facility, supported by 800 technology startups and tens of thousands of software engineers, is expected to commence operation by the end of this year.
In a two-hour speech at 2023 Computex Taipei on Monday, Huang told an audience of 3,500 people about Nvidia’s AI development plan.
He said Taiwanese electronic makers can use Nvidia’s Omniverse, Isaac Sim and Metropolis to build virtual factories, simulate robots and conduct automated inspections, respectively. He also displayed how AI technology can be applied in online games, content generation and music production.
Read: China leads US in tech that matters most: report
Follow Jeff Pao on Twitter at @jeffpao3
India’s protesting wrestlers postpone sinking medals in Ganges
Getty ImagesIndia’s top wrestlers have postponed plans to throw their medals into the Ganges, the country’s holiest river, as part of their ongoing protest.
They were due to throw the medals in the river on Tuesday afternoon, but have now reportedly given the government five days to respond.
The wrestlers have been demanding the resignation and arrest of their federation chief, whom they accuse of sexually harassing female wrestlers.
He has denied the allegations.
They also plan to go on an indefinite hunger strike at India Gate – a war memorial in capital Delhi.
“These medals are our life and soul… We feel there’s no meaning to having these medals around our necks anymore,” the wrestlers said in a statement on Tuesday.
Olympic medallists Sakshi Malik and Bajrang Punia and two-time World Champion medallist Vinesh Phogat were among the protesters who shared the statement.
There were dramatic scenes as the tearful wrestlers gathered near the river on Tuesday, but local media said the leader of the influential BKU farming union, met them and convinced them to postpone the protest.
The union leader, Naresh Tikait, was quoted saying the government had five days to take action.
The wrestlers said they had first considered returning their medals to the president and the prime minister but were disappointed that they had not spoken about the protests or enquired about them even once (both leaders have not made any public statements about the protests).
“After we put them [the medals] in the Ganges, there would be no meaning for us to live. So we will got to India Gate and sit on a fast unto death,” the statement added.
On Sunday, Malik, Punia and Phogat were among several detained while attempting to march towards India’s new parliament building as part of their protest.
They were stopped by the police and taken away from the area in buses. The incident took place just a few miles away from the new parliament, which was being inaugurated by Mr Modi at the time.
Visuals of the athletes being dragged and carried off in buses went viral, sparking criticism from top athletes and opposition politicians.
In their statement on Tuesday, the wrestlers decried the police action against them and said they had been treated like “criminals”.
“Have female athletes committed some crime by asking for justice for the sexual harassment committed against them?” they asked.
Delhi Police have filed cases including of rioting against the wrestlers. They also cleared out their protest site at Jantar Mantar, a heritage site in Delhi.
The athletes began their protest against Brij Bhushan Singh, the chief of the wrestling federation in India, on 23 April.
Mr Singh, an influential politician and MP of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has denied all the allegations and called the protests politically motivated. He has been questioned by the Delhi Police, but not arrested yet.
On Monday, sports minister Anurag Thakur said the wrestlers had not been stopped from protesting at their designated spots in Delhi.
He said appropriate action would be taken in the case once the Delhi Police completed their investigation. The minister also asked wrestlers who hadn’t given statements to the police yet to do so.
BBC News India is now on YouTube. Click here to subscribe and watch our documentaries, explainers and features.
Read more India stories from the BBC:
- Dhoni’s delayed retirement delights cricket fans
- Indian man held for brutally murdering girl in public
- Why prosperity can’t break India’s dowry curse
- A teacher uniting colonial-era divided Indian families
- India police file rioting case against top wrestlers
- Why prosperity can’t break India’s dowry curse
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A glacial Sino-American thaw
US President Joseph Biden announced a thaw in China’s ties with the US. However, there is much more ice than meets the eye in this “thaw.”
When the US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo returned from China last week, she declared that the US “won’t tolerate” China’s ban on Micron chips. Still, from Beijing’s perspective, why should China tolerate restrictions on tech supplies?
Then what will happen to China’s purchases of US Treasury bonds, for decades a cornerstone of bilateral ties and now extremely important because of the US budget crisis? Will they go ahead, or will China stop buying them or buy less? How will it impact the US and the global economy?
The urgency of Raimondo’s pressing to meet the Chinese side, the rush with which Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen moved in the following hours, told China that the US was in big trouble over the budget.
Speaking of a thaw and US government officials knocking on Beijing’s door to talk could give the impression in China that America is eager to mend fences with China because it feels weak.
Until a couple of months ago, all the messages coming from Washington were of fire and brimstone. Then, in March and April, the US budget crisis began and a problematic agreement had to be found between Democrats and Republicans to deal with it.
A not insignificant part of the budget goes into defense spending and generally to support domestic development plans aimed at national growth against Beijing.
It all looks very odd from Beijing, where people wonder: there is tension, but you want our money; what is it, a show?
Indeed, China has more than one reason to ask what’s happening and bargain with Washington. The US, keen on China’s bond purchases, has conceded something, although it is unclear how much.
In any case, China’s bond purchases have apparently muffled the recent saber-rattling. In the near future, the impression is that American allies will restrain controversial moves on Taiwan and elsewhere.
Meanwhile, Beijing will follow the problematic, divisive US election campaign with two candidates who are both weak on paper.
The Republican Donald Trump, more controversial than ever, is hounded by lawsuits and denunciations that make him a martyr to his follower base. The democratic Joseph Biden is cast by his foes as tired, fatigued and unable to handle the stress of the presidency.
Things should be under control for the next 18 months; there shouldn’t be a major bilateral crisis, Beijing seems to figure.
Central Asia’s moves
But politically, there is a lot of movement around China.
Tehran, on May 28, announced that talks have progressed between Iran and the US on releasing Tehran’s frozen assets in Iraq and South Korea, and an agreement on general terms will likely be achieved in the coming days. It could spin the political calculus of the area in a different direction.
Just two months ago, on March 10, China announced it had brokered a historic deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia. It inserted China into delicate Middle Eastern politics and seemed to sideline the US, recently battered in the region by the ruinous wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Still, at the beginning of April, CIA director William Burns visited Riyadh to confirm bilateral ties, as the US guarantees security to the Saudi court.
Now, the Iranian announcement could also pave the way for historic and new relations between Saudis and Israelis, which had been in the offing for years. Moreover, Iran’s new posture could turn the country to a new approach with Israel.
Certainly, nothing is set in stone but the US-China rivalry has extended to Central Asia and the Middle East, and it might have an overall positive spin for everybody.
China’s recent inroads in the region could have started a complex reassessment. This created a new Chinese presence and role in the area and spurred America to be more active, possibly taking Israel along.
China is not marginalized in this game, but certainly neither is the US. The two countries seem ready to play in the region according to different rules. This may change the political geography of the area, and no one is clear who will be the winner in the end.
Besides, the G7 met in Japan, inviting India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Australia and Brazil. It found unity on a platform against China. However, there is no longer talk of “decoupling” but rather “de-risking.”
Among America’s allies, there is no agreement to decouple economically from China. It may seem like a step forward from Beijing, but it may be more complex.
There is an agreement to take away the Chinese risk, which is already factored into companies’ budget plans. Those inflate all ventures dealing with China.
The new costs, sanctions and restrictions budgeted in China’s companies’ plans make all foreign enterprises in the country less convenient. In recent years, burgeoning tensions and drastic anti-Covid measures have pushed foreign investors to isolate their China operations from the rest of the world; new costs make it less convenient to operate in China altogether.
Still, if processes are still active in the country, the promising Chinese markets are no place to flee. But new operations are less attractive.
While the G7 was convened in Hiroshima, China invited the five former Soviet republics in Central Asia (the five Stans) to Xi’an, its ancient capital. The five Stans occupy a territory about half the size of China, with just over 70 million inhabitants.
The signal was against the G7 and Moscow, the former ruler of the region. With the extension of its reach into the Stans, Beijing projects to the Caspian Sea, i.e., the Caucasus, i.e., the Black Sea and to the great Mediterranean.
It claims that the G7 resolution is weak and that Russia’s eventual defeat in Ukraine does not harm Beijing. On the contrary, it allows China to extend its impact where it had never gone before, bringing closer border contact with Iran and the Saudis.
There are reasons to be not so gloomy in Beijing. The urgency of US talks on bond purchases suggests more generally that there is something very wrong with the US economic situation and model.
China may have its own internal economic difficulties: the crisis in the real estate sector, the problem in the trusts sector and the challenges of local governments. Still, without full currency convertibility, the central government can better manage its economic affairs, and thus political bargaining, than Washington. Or can it?
It is time for observation and thinking about the extensive framework that still holds bilateral ties together. Here, constraints are very tight for Beijing.
A two-way surplus
Over 30 years ago, the US and China established a framework that constrained both countries. This framework is presently under duress, but it is still there.
The US is still giving China its largest surplus. Last year, it was about $700 billion. Without the G7, China would not have a surplus; it would have a deficit. The domestic economy would not be the same.
If there were a trade deficit, China should export its currency or change its entire trade strategy. Both options, however, are problematic.
With the currency export option, there would be a foreign RMB (freely-traded abroad) and a domestic RMB (with a rate adjusted by the central bank), and their exchange rates would differ. It would lead toward the free exchange of the RMB, which the government doesn’t want.
Changing Chinese trade is not easy either, because developing countries do not have much purchasing power to acquire so many Chinese goods.
Furthermore, factories will close once China does not have today’s surplus, and workers will lose their jobs. Then, there will be a social and political crisis.
China uses part of its surplus to buy US debt. The United States needs China to buy its debt to buy Chinese goods. The whole process, though, has stopped being cost-effective for the United States.
The United States buys hundreds of billions worth of goods yearly, so the total deficit with China in many years is many trillion dollars. But China buys only $1 trillion in US Treasury bonds.
By some accounts, the United States has transferred trillions of dollars to China in 30 years. This calculation is simplistic and partial, but reflects something visible in the two countries: China is bridging the economic gap with the US and has grown much faster than America in the past 40 years.
America thinks China should be grateful for this. It isn’t; it’s rather unhappy with America.
China can spin a story at home about addressing the issue, but abroad there is a growing consensus that something is wrong with how China handles its trade.
Then, would China be prepared to handle a long-term trade deficit? It would have to bear its costs. China can manage a trade surplus easily; a trade deficit is far more complicated.
Managing a long-term deficit requires convincing other countries to accept your currency in exchange for real goods. Therefore, it also entails two elements:
- Long-term internal reliability and stability (a fairly transparent political system, a military, accepted diplomatic and cultural clout, etc)
- Allowing other countries to make money in China and quickly removing the hurdles. It would need an advanced stock market and the development of new technologies that can create new markets and drive global growth, which can be exported to other countries. The new markets will bring new opportunities to prosper.
The United States and its old “buddy” Britain have both elements. Others are different. Even Germany and Japan rely on exports.
If the framework is not rapidly fixed, it will fall apart after the present lull and America and its allies will have established a new framework with other countries. China certainly has plans and is preparing, but of course, it’s unclear whether they will work.
Here time is of the essence. Is time on China or America’s side?
China may think that the longer I have, the better I can prepare for the coming conflict; a bigger economy can withstand the pressure, while American divisions will rip it apart over a longer time.
America may think the longer I have, the better I can consolidate my alliances and the weaker Russia becomes, surrounding China with more problems that will come for China’s sputtering domestic economy.
But, in the meantime, the crux of the matter might be different as both sides bide their time and draw the wrong conclusions about the other side’s weakness. The thaw doesn’t seem set to last and brewing troubles will get bigger and possibly come back with a vengeance.
Moreover, is the lull real? Aside from any rational calculations, the world around China is exceptionally volatile and many things can blow up, irrespective of Beijing’s intentions.
US domestic strife can find a sudden unity for any given incident, coalescing against China, the common denominator of the nation. Then, the issue of China’s bond purchases could vanish. Chinese assets abroad would be seized or frozen, as the same would happen to Western holdings in China. It was already the case with Russia.
Meanwhile, can there be a systematic solution to avoid a war? And what will be the price for peace? At the moment, not many seem to think about that.
This essay first appeared on Settimana News and is republished with permission. The original article can be read here.
More than 24,000 people have pre-enrolled for Healthier SG with their regular doctors: Ong Ye Kung
SINGAPORE: More than 24,000 people have pre-enrolled for the Healthier SG programme with their regular doctors, Health Minister Ong Ye Kung said on Tuesday (May 30).
This number is better than expected and bodes well for the formal launch of the programme in July, he said.
Mr Ong was speaking at the opening of Fullerton Health’s new health screening centre in Novena.
Unveiled in 2022, Healthier SG focuses heavily on preventive care and aims to have Singaporeans and permanent residents take charge of their own healthcare by enrolling with a single doctor who will support them in their health needs throughout their lives.
“As of yesterday, over 24,000 individuals have pre-enrolled with their regular GPs (general practitioners). The number is higher than what I had expected,” Mr Ong said.
“GPs told me that these patients have enrolled with little persuasion. So I think the message of preventive care and managing diseases proactively has resonated. If anything, our package of benefits under Healthier SG is working so far.”
With the “good momentum” for pre-enrolment, the Ministry of Health (MOH) will be ready to formally launch Healthier SG on Jul 5, Mr Ong added.
The pre-enrolment exercise was launched earlier this month for existing chronic patients aged 40 and older.
Mr Ong said that the ministry will make the Healthier SG enrolment as simple as possible, with the process very similar to the one used for booking COVID-19 vaccinations.
“Eligible residents will receive an SMS invite from MOH, which will link you to HealthHub, where you can enrol with your family doctor,” he said.
“Invitations, just like vaccination invitations, will go out in batches, starting with Singapore citizens and permanent residents aged 60 years and above and with chronic diseases, followed by others in the same age group.”
Enrolment may be extended to a younger age group – those aged between 40 and 59 – once the system has been “run in”, he added.
As of this month, more than 870 of the 1,200 eligible Community Health Assist Scheme (CHAS) GP clinics have already joined Healthier SG, Mr Ong said.
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Malaysia anti-graft agency says 1MDB fugitive Jho Low believed to be in Macao
KUALA LUMPUR: Fugitive Malaysian financier Jho Low, wanted for his key role in the multibillion-dollar 1MDB scandal, is believed to be hiding in Macao, Malaysia’s anti-graft agency said on Tuesday (May 30), confirming an earlier report by Al Jazeera. Al Jazeera had cited a written response from the Malaysian Anti-Corruption CommissionContinue Reading
6 people hospitalised after gastroenteritis outbreak at 3 MindChamps preschools
SINGAPORE: Six people were hospitalised following a gastroenteritis outbreak at three MindChamps preschools, authorities said in a news release on Tuesday (May 30)
A total of 89 people – 79 children and 10 staff members – from the preschools at Bishan, Changi Airport and Tanglin reported symptoms of gastroenteritis after consuming food prepared by Nosh Cuisine between May 17 and 29.
Those hospitalised are in stable condition, said the Ministry of Health (MOH), the Early Childhood Development Agency (ECDA) and the Singapore Food Agency (SFA) said in a joint press release.
The rest sought outpatient treatment, self-medicated or recovered without treatment.
“In view of the suspected ongoing transmission, SFA has suspended the food business operations of Nosh Cuisine … with effect from May 30 until further notice,” MOH, ECDA and SFA said.
The operator is required to clean and sanitise its premises, including equipment and utensils, and dispose all ready-to-eat food and perishable food items.
All food handlers working at the premises must re-attend and pass the Food Safety Course Level 1 and test negative for foodborne pathogens before they can resume work.
The appointed food hygiene officer working at the premises must also re-attend and pass the Food Safety Course Level 3 before resuming work.
SFA reminded food operators to observe good food and personal hygiene practices at all time.
“Food safety is a joint responsibility,” it said. “SFA will not hesitate to take firm action against anyone found to be in violation of the Environmental Public Health Act.”
It also urged members of the public who come across poor hygiene practices in food establishments not to patronise them, and to report such outlets to SFA.