Commentary: Can Singapore presidential hopefuls be overqualified?

NOT A JOB ANYONE CAN DO

It should not be surprising that the elected presidency was conceived, and is best understood, as an institution with eligibility restricted to a select group.

In response to a parliamentary question in May, Minister-in-charge of the Public Service Chan Chun Sing stated that there were 50 public service positions that fulfil the public sector service requirement to run in the next presidential election. These include the positions of minister, chief justice, Speaker of Parliament, attorney-general, chairman of the Public Service Commission, auditor-general, accountant-general or permanent secretary.

For potential presidential candidates looking to qualify under the private sector service requirements, there were more than 1,200 companies with average shareholders’ equity at or exceeding S$500 million (US$372 million).

This, of course, does not tell us how many of these eligible individuals will have the gumption to run in a bid for the highest office in Singapore.

It does not help that in a well-governed country, many may not find compelling reasons to step forward and serve. Moreover, the president and his or her family are not exempted from public glare and scrutiny and so sacrificing that comfortable privacy may be a deterrent to seeking elected office.

Singapore’s current and past elected presidents had entered office with impressive credentials and brought their personalities to bear on the office. In that regard, the office of Singapore’s head of state has moulded into a symbol of national unity and a crucial governance guardrail.

Having a capable and wise person to represent our country internationally and to safeguard the vast national reserves is not a job anyone can do. Instead of being a promoter and protector of good governance, the presidency can expedite the road to ruin.

In my view, there can never be an overqualified president.

Eugene K B Tan is associate professor of law at the Singapore Management University and a former Nominated Member of Parliament.

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Lao man arrested in Khon Kaen after robbing gold in his country

Lao suspect Thao Sirasorn, right, who fled after the gold shop robbery in Laos, is questioned at Muang police station in Khon Kaen province after he was arrested in this northeastern province on Friday. (Photo: Chakrapan Natanri)
Lao suspect Thao Sirasorn, right, who fled after the gold shop robbery in Laos, is questioned at Muang police station in Khon Kaen province after he was arrested in this northeastern province on Friday. (Photo: Chakrapan Natanri)

KHON KAEN: A Lao man who made off with gold worth about 1.8 million baht from his country was arrested at a luxury condominium in Muang district on Friday evening.

Thao Sirasorn, 27, was caught in the condominium’s parking lot at around 6.30pm.

Seized from him were eight necklaces, each weighing about about five baht-weight of gold, with a combined value of 1.2 million baht. In addition, 300,020 baht in cash, a travelling bag and a shoulder bag were seized from him. He was taken to Muang police station in Khon Kaen province.

Pol Col Preecha Kengsarikit, superintendent of Muang police station, said the arrest came after Lao authorities informed the Provincial Police Region 4 that the suspect had fled to Khon Kaen after robbing a gold shop in Vientiane on Thursday. He had stolen 84 baht-weight of gold ornaments worth approximately 1.8 million baht.

Some stolen gold necklaces are seized from the Lao suspect. (Photo: Chakrapan Natanri)

Investigators began tracking the man and discovered that he was at the condominium, where his girlfriend stayed. Following his arrest, police conducted a search and found the stolen gold and other items in his girlfriend’s room.

The arresting team checked his passport and found that the Lao national had not sought permission to stay in Thailand.

“During questioning, the suspect confessed to robbing the gold shop and making off with 11 gold necklaces. After selling three gold necklaces in Laos for over 300,000 baht, he fled to Khon Kaen to hide,” said Pol Col Preecha.

The suspect entered Thailand via natural border crossing in Loei province and then hired a vehicle to take him to his girlfriend’s condo.

The gold shop owner had previously offered a cash reward of 200,000 baht for information leading to the suspect’s arrest, said the Khon Kaen police chief.

Pol Lt Col Somphet Suphothip, head of Laos police’s investigation section, thanked Thai police for the arrest.

He said the suspect had committed similar offences on multiple occasions, and this gold shop robbery marked his fifth incident.

Pol Lt Col Somphet added that the suspect had been addicted to online gambling since his time as a university student in Vientiane.

The suspect would be handed over to Lao police for legal action.

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Bangladesh grappling with its own US or China dilemma

In April 2023, Bangladesh’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs released its inaugural official document on the Indo-Pacific, detailing guiding principles and objectives to form the foundation of Dhaka’s regional policy. 

The publication represents a significant step forward in Dhaka’s efforts to articulate its vision for the Indo-Pacific and is indicative of its willingness to engage with the region’s major powers.

While the contents of the document are relatively generic, they provide insight into Bangladesh’s dilemma of choosing sides amid growing US-China competition in the Indo-Pacific.

The outlook offers little clarity on how Bangladesh plans to navigate the complex and evolving geopolitical dynamics in the Indo-Pacific. Rather, the principles closely resemble Article 25 of Bangladesh’s constitution which states that its foreign policy should be guided by the principles of non-interference, peaceful coexistence, respect for international law and norms and cooperation.

The document reaffirms Bangladesh’s constitutional commitment to advocate a peaceful international system based on the UN Charter.

The document does not provide any reference to defense collaboration or military cooperation with any particular bloc. Instead, it encourages track-2 diplomatic processes to settle existing disputes by strengthening “mutual trust and respect, [forging] partnerships and cooperation, and [promoting] dialogue and understanding with the aim of ensuring peace, prosperity, security and stability for all in the Indo-Pacific.” 

The document emphasizes on the notion of a “Culture of Peace“, a United Nations declaration that Bangladesh played a key role in drafting in 1997.

While the core strategic and security issues facing the region were not addressed, the outlook called for the establishment of “rules-based multilateral systems” to promote “equitable and sustainable development.”

The Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force conducts Malabar 21 – an inter-nation exercise with the Indian Navy, US Navy and Royal Australian Navy – to improve tactical skills and further strengthen the Quad navies. Photo: AFP / EyePress News

The document refrains from using the Quad’s preferred terminology of a “rules-based order.” This deliberate choice of wording reflects Bangladesh’s desire to adopt a neutral posture in the geopolitical landscape. Bangladesh is indicating its preference for a more inclusive and open security architecture in the region that accommodates diverse interests and perspectives.

The outlook addresses non-traditional security concerns. Maritime security has been given priority. The document emphasizes strengthening “existing mechanisms on maritime safety and security in the Indo-Pacific.” It also refers to the security implications of climate change and natural disasters.

The outlook took an unambiguous position regarding international laws and norms. Dhaka has rendered its steadfast commitment to ‘uphold the exercise of freedom of navigation and overflight, in accordance with international law and conventions’. Bangladesh’s affirmation of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) must be understood within its national context.

Bangladesh’s reliance on sea lanes of communications makes unrestrained access to the sea and adherence to UNCLOS norms crucial for safeguarding its economic interests. Bangladesh’s successful resolution of maritime disputes with India and Myanmar based on UNCLOS also exemplifies the utility of international law for a small state. 

Bangladesh’s emphasis on existing international laws and norms does not signify a rebuke of China. Rather, it reflects the country’s self-awareness of its place in the international community and the limits of its power.

Though the document appears to have been primarily created for a foreign audience, it also includes sections that target domestic constituents. One example is the reference to “Smart Bangladesh,” which highlights Dhaka’s ambitious agenda to promote its local initiatives in the global arena.

The outlook’s publication coincides with a crucial moment in Bangladesh’s foreign policy, as Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s visits to Japan and the United States in April 2023 thrust the country into the global spotlight. During her trip to Japan, Hasina signed a joint statement with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, reaffirming their shared commitment to “a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific.”

This strategic partnership is significant — not only because Tokyo has historically been Bangladesh’s largest source of overseas development assistance — but also because Japan is developing a new industrial corridor that aims to connect Bangladesh and Northeast India with Southeast Asia. The strategic partnership is primarily driven by economic motives, with geopolitics playing a crucial role in its formulation.

US-Bangladesh ties have faced several difficulties, with bilateral disagreements over multiple issues ranging from human rights to democratic processes. Bangladesh’s close economic and defense ties with China and Russia have further complicated its diplomatic connections with the Western nations, particularly in the wake of the Russia–Ukraine conflict. 

In this context, the joint statement released by Japan and Bangladesh has become a crucial means for Dhaka to signal to the United States that it is willing to endorse some of the objectives of the Quad without committing to any overt strategic alignment.

Bangladesh Border Guards eploy on Saint Martin’s island in the Bay of Bengal. Photo: AFP

The responses from Dhaka’s diplomatic community have been mixed. The United States has insisted that Bangladesh’s Indo-Pacific outlook largely aligns with its own Indo-Pacific Strategy.

India’s Minister of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar commended the publication of the outlook, highlighting its emphasis on adherence to international conventions. In contrast, though, China’s response has been relatively restrained.

While Bangladesh’s Indo-Pacific outlook is not an explicit pro-Quad tilt, it does show Dhaka’s willingness to deepen existing cooperation with the bloc. Still, the document allows for a more nuanced and pragmatic foreign policy approach, considers regional power dynamics and seeks to maintain Bangladesh’s strategic autonomy.

Rubiat Saimum is Lecturer of Maritime Security and Strategic Studies at Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Maritime University.

This article was originally published by East Asia Forum and is republished under a Creative Commons license.

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US, Japan, Taiwan to share real-time drone intel: report

The US plans to share real-time data with Taiwan and Japan’s drone fleets, marking a significant evolution in US-led regional security minilateralism in the Pacific in its quest to contain China.

Financial Times reported this week that Japan, Taiwan and the US will share real-time data from naval reconnaissance drones, with Taiwan’s future MQ-9 Sea Guardian drones to be delivered in 2025 integrated into the same system used by US forces and Japanese Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) in the region, according to four anonymous sources familiar with the project cited in the report.

The report says the arrangement would allow the US and its partners to observe the same picture the drones capture, giving all three access to a common operating picture. The report also cites a source saying that the US and its partners will take a practical approach to the project to ensure that integration is done as quickly as possible.

At the same time, the Financial Times report quotes a senior US military official saying that including Taiwan in US interoperability structures risks provoking China, with intelligence-sharing between Japan, Taiwan, the US and also the Philippines will likely be perceived as escalatory by Beijing.

The report also says that the US Department of Defense initially refused to comment on the matter, with a spokesperson saying that the US is not currently planning to facilitate MQ-9 information sharing between Taiwan and Japan while reiterating its commitment to bilateral information sharing between the US and Japan.

The Financial Times report says Taiwan’s defense ministry stated that it had not been informed of plans to share real-time data from naval reconnaissance drones between the US and Japan.

Other reports quoted Taiwanese defense ministry as denying that its new MQ-9B drones will be part of any trilateral intel-sharing initiative. Japan’s defense ministry did not comment.

Military helicopters carrying large Taiwan flags do a flyby rehearsal on October 5, 2021, ahead of National Day celebrations amid escalating tensions between Taipei and Beijing. Photo: AFP / Ceng Shou Yi / NurPhoto

Predictably, China criticized the reputed move. Financial Times noted that China’s foreign ministry spokesperson said the US and Japan should stop creating military tensions and causing instability in the Taiwan Strait.

Integrating Japan and Taiwan into a US-led intelligence-sharing mechanism could bring the two closer to the Five Eyes intelligence alliance comprising the US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

Originally founded during the Cold War to spy on the Soviet Union, its purpose has since changed and focuses largely on signals intelligence (SIGINT), which includes the interception, decryption, and analysis of encrypted messages.

While Taiwan is not a member of the Five Eyes, it purportedly maintains close links with the alliance. Focus Taiwan reported on April 2023 that Taiwan maintains real-time intelligence-sharing with the Five Eyes, with Taiwan’s National Security Bureau upgrading its computer units to a level used by intelligence units in the alliance’s member countries.

The report notes that Taiwan’s upgraded computers can be used to better connect to the Five Eyes through a secure and encrypted instant online reporting and communication mechanism.

However, several factors work against Taiwan being formally invited as a Five Eyes member. Admitting Taiwan as a Five Eyes member would no doubt infuriate China, as doing so would be equivalent to giving Taiwan legitimacy as an independent state actor.

China has also extensively infiltrated Taiwan’s military, presenting severe risks for intelligence-sharing with Taiwan. Admitting Taiwan to Five Eyes may also bring extra complexity to the organization’s decision-making processes and add a level of risk current members are unwilling to accept.

While Taiwan’s complicated international status may prevent it from formally joining the Five Eyes, Japan can potentially become the sixth member of the alliance.

In a paper for the US Air University, James Ao notes that the most immediate benefit Five Eyes can get from Japan would be information collected from Tokyo’s extensive intelligence network in East Asia.

At the diplomatic level, Ao says that Japan’s inclusion into the Five Eyes could pave the way for future multilateral security agreements, something which Japan is hesitant to enter due to until now strong pacifist sentiments. 

Ao also mentions that Japan’s membership in the Five Eyes would effectively link critical intelligence earlier to support better the Japanese leadership’s ability to present a narrative to the Japanese people relating the operational threats to Taiwan to Japan’s own survival.

Despite those upsides, Japan has remained a non-member for various reasons. Five Eyes members are Anglophone countries with a common language, legal systems, culture and history that do not extend to Japan.

Given their long history of conflict and ongoing territorial disputes, Japan’s potential accession into the Five Eyes may also inflame regional tensions between Japan, China and South Korea.

To date, a NATO-like security organization has not emerged in East Asia due to the region’s diverse political systems and interests, historical tensions between major regional powers, balance of power concerns against China and Russia, the different roles of the US in NATO and East Asia, and ASEAN’s firm adherence to non-intervention in its members’ internal affairs.

AUKUS nuclear submarine deal is already making ripples across the Indo-Pacific. Image: US Embassy in China

US-led multilateral efforts to date include the Quad Alliance encompassing the US, Australia, Japan and India, and AUKUS consisting of the US, Australia and the UK.

The emerging intelligence-sharing arrangement between the US, Japan and Taiwan may eventually evolve into a more formal agreement that can set a precedent for future similar agreements, an example of which is the “New Quad” featuring Australia, Japan, the Philippines and the US.

That new inchoate arrangement is being billed as more military-focused and anti-China in orientation.

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Countries worldwide tackle water stresses

In May, the Arizona Department of Water Resources imposed restrictions on the construction of new housing in the Phoenix area, citing a lack of groundwater. The decision aims to slow population growth in one of the fastest-growing regions in the US and underlines the dwindling water resources in the country’s drought-stricken southwest.

As water levels in the Colorado River have declined, the states dependent on it (Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah and Wyoming) are increasingly at odds over how to distribute the declining supply.

The US is not alone in contentious domestic debate over water supplies. Australian states have constantly quarreled over water rights across the Murray-Darling Basin. Disruptions to water supply or perceived misuse can cause immediate social unrest, and Iran and France have seen violent protests regarding water recently.

Constant and affordable access to fresh water is recognized as a basic human right by the United Nations. And in addition to providing a foundation for life, fresh water is crucial for industry and manufacturingenergy productionagriculture, sanitation, and other essential societal functions.

But around the world, its availability is threatened. Desertification, climate change, man-made water diversion, dam building, pollution, and overuse have seen rivers, lakes and aquifers dry up. Since 2000, the world has added almost 2 billion people, putting further strain on global water infrastructure and supplies.

Causes of water stress

Poor water management and infrastructure also play a major role in water scarcity around the world. In Iraq, up to 14.5% of the country’s water is lost to evaporation and two-thirds of its treated water is lost because of leaks and poor infrastructure. Up to 25-30% of South Africa’s water is lost to leaks, while even in many industrialized countries, up to 15-20% of water supply is lost.

Inequality can also exacerbate water stress. Amid Cape Town’s water shortages in recent years, 14% of the population has been found to be responsible for more than half of the freshwater use in the city. Across Africa, one in three people already faces water scarcity, where “the availability of natural hygienic water falls below 1,000 cubic meters per person per year.”

On top of government control of water supply and infrastructure, multinational companies such as Nestlé SA, PepsiCo Inc, the Coca-Cola Company, and the Wonderful Company LLC play a huge role in the global water industry. 

In 2013, former Nestlé chief executive officer Peter Brabeck-Letmathe was forced to backtrack after a 2005 interview resurfaced where he stated it was “extreme” that water was considered a human right.

However, water privatization has increased significantly over the last few decadesIn 2020, Wall Street allowed water to begin trading as a commodity, and now, “farmers, hedge funds and municipalities alike are now able to hedge against – or bet on – future water availability in California.”

Monetization has even seen Fiji, the world’s fourth-largest water exporter in 2021, face water supply shortages over the last few years.

Tap water remains drinkable only in certain countries, but fears of contamination can occur rapidly and incite alarm.

After thousands of liters of a synthetic latex product spilled into the Delaware River in March, Philadelphia authorities shut down a nearby water treatment plant. While it was ultimately deemed that tap water was still safe to drink, government warnings and alarm on social media led to panic-buying of water.

Contamination can also lead to longer-term damage to public faith in water infrastructure. After heightened levels of lead were found in Flint, Michigan’s drinking water in 2014 (together with the tepid government response), the local population remained hesitant to resume drinking it even after it had been declared safe.

International disputes

Water security also has a major impact on relations between countries. The US and Mexico have historically competed over water rights to both the Colorado River and the Rio Grande. Strong population growth on both sides of the border in recent decades, coupled with drought, has exacerbated bilateral tensions.

In 2020, tension over Mexico’s inability to meet its annual water-delivery obligations to the US from the Rio Grande, laid out in the 1944 Water Treaty, saw farmers in northern Mexico take over La Boquilla Dam, weeks before the deadline. While the crisis was eventually resolved, the fundamental issue of strained water flows remains ongoing.

Iraq has meanwhile increasingly accused Iran of withholding water from tributaries that feed into the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, with Iran accusing Iraq of failing to use water responsibly. Iraq and Syria have also disputed Turkey’s construction of dams and irrigation systems that have hindered the traditional flows of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers.

Relations among Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia have similarly deteriorated since construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) began in 2011. The project has aggravated regional fears over Nile River water shortages, and though outright conflict has so far been avoided, it has inflamed concern over supply in Sudan, which saw deadly clashes over water shortages this year.

China has been labeled an “upstream superpower” because several major rivers begin in that country. The construction of dams and hydropower plants on the Mekong River has caused friction with Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam, while Kazakhstan and China have often disagreed over water rights regarding the Ili River.

Fears have also arisen that India and China, the world’s two most populous countries, could come into conflict over the Brahmaputra River and Indus River. But India and downstream Pakistan have their own disputes over rights in the Indus River basin that have raised regional concern.

Instrument of war

Other countries have weaponized water as part of a wider conflict. Ukraine and Russia have both used water to harass each other since the first round of unrest between them began in 2014. Ukraine almost immediately cut off Crimea from water supply from the North Crimean Canal, shrinking the peninsula’s arable land from 130,000 hectares in 2013 to just 14,000 in 2017.

Russia reopened the canal after the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022. Additionally, Russian forces have since been accused of withholding water to some Ukrainian regions, deliberately flooding others, and targeting Ukraine’s water infrastructure. Both Russia and Ukraine accused each other of blowing up the Kakhovka Dam and hydroelectric power station on the Dnieper River on June 5, which flooded downstream communities.

Islamic State (ISIS) was instrumental in causing water shortages during its rise across Syria and Iraq a decade ago, by polluting and cutting off water supplies and flooding regions. The Taliban also repeatedly attacked water infrastructure in Afghanistan throughout the US-led occupation of the country.

Long-standing disputes between the Taliban and Iran over access to the Helmand River also resulted in deadly clashes at their mutual border this year. And in recent years, cyberattacks have increasingly targeted the vulnerable water infrastructure of the US.

Relief in sight

Fortunately, the future of water stress may be less dire than feared. Global population growth has slowed significantly over the last few decades and the population is expected to peak by the end of the century. Furthermore, regions experiencing water stresses are typically not high-population growth areas.

The global community is also taking renewed steps to address global water security, with the UN holding in March its first summit on water since 1977.

And even countries with long-standing disputes have recognized the importance of maintaining water supplies.

The 60-year-old Indus Water Treaty between India and Pakistan has largely held despite persistent tensions between them. China has initiated cooperation with downstream states on transportation and water flows, including the Lancang-Mekong River Dialogue and Cooperation forum to share data and prepare for shortages and flooding.

There have also been recent breakthroughs regarding the GERD. Sudan’s de facto leader, Abdel-Fattah Burhan, recently came out in support of the dam, noting it could help regulate flooding. Greater cooperation between Ethiopia and Egypt could see less water evaporate from Egypt’s Aswan High Dam if it can be stored in the GERD during warmer months.

And though seawater desalination remains expensive and energy-intensive, it is becoming more efficient and widespread. In Saudi Arabia, 50% of the country’s water needs are met by desalination, while Egypt plans to open dozens of new desalination plants in the coming years. Currently, 70% of the world’s desalination plants are in the Middle East.

Domestic US initiatives are also promising. California’s Orange County recycles almost all of its waste water back to the nearby aquifer through the world’s largest water reclamation plant, which opened in 2008. Arizona, California, and Nevada also agreed in May to reduce water intake by 10% over the next three years, and Arizona’s decision to suspend housing construction may mark the beginning of more restraint over domestic water consumption.

Ongoing domestic and international cooperation will nonetheless be required to resolve water disputes and create sustainable water-management practices. Preventing the use of water as geopolitical leverage or a tool of war, coupled with effective management of climate change and pollution, will be integral to avoiding wars over water in the future.

This article was produced by Globetrotter, which provided it to Asia Times.

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Enforcement action against man staying in East Coast Park shelter was ‘last resort’: NParks

SINGAPORE: Enforcement action had to be taken as a “last resort” after a man staying in an East Coast Park shelter declined repeated offers of assistance, and continued to deprive other parkgoers of its use, said the National Parks Board (NParks) on Saturday (Jun 8).

Jackson Chan Kian Leng, 46, was charged on May 30 for residing in a public park without a license and for smoking under a park shelter. He was sentenced to four days in jail after being unable to pay a fine of S$1,400 (S$1,042).

In a joint response to media queries, NParks and the Ministry of Social and Family Development (MSF) said authorities were first alerted to Chan’s situation back in June 2020.

He was offered shelter but declined and was “resistant to any form of assistance”, said the agencies, who noted that Chan appeared to be in good health.

In April 2021, MSF engaged him again but he refused to provide contact details or consent to be referred to social service agencies.

Subsequently, during Singapore’s COVID-19 Phase 2 (Heightened Alert) period from the middle to end of 2021, Chan was seen staying at the East Coast Park shelter, despite it being cordoned off and closed to the public.

This led to him being issued with six composition notices from December 2021 to April 2022.

“Chan was not cooperative, was hostile towards the officers who spoke to him, and had also splashed a pail of water on a security officer who was patrolling the park,” said NParks and MSF.

He was informed in August 2022 that further enforcement action would be taken if he did not vacate the shelter. 

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ChatGPT disrupts Asian property industry, but it’ll be a while before an AI agent sells you a home

Midland Realty is adopting ChatGPT for analysis of market statistics and client data to predict trends and provide personal recommendations; automation of business procedures; writing letters; analysing sales brochures; preparing sales proposals; video production; providing question-answering chatbots. The agency has organised 25 AI courses with over 2,000 attendees as ofContinue Reading

On solid foundations or shaky ground?

Pita: Has work cut out to be PM
Pita: Has work cut out to be PM

On solid foundations?

The Move Foward Party (MFP)-led alliance is conjuring up the impression that it has already assumed control of the country’s administration, according to a political source.

The surreality being created, which critics decried as counting chickens before they hatch, has given supporters a sense that a new dawn awaits the country.

Expectations surrounding the eight-party line-up were deliberately heightened to such an extent that people are being made to feel that if the parties cannot form a new government for any reason, huge and possibly unrestrained disappointment could descend into chaos on the streets, the source said.

Such a scenario could be exploited to pressure individuals or agencies, viewed by some supporters as being hostile to the MFP-led bloc, into curtailing their tough comments or impending actions.

Cases in point have to do with the Election Commission (EC) and the Senate, which hold the fate of the bloc in their hands.

The EC has yet to endorse the election of the 500 winners in both the constituency and party-list systems in the May 14 polls.

The poll regulator has made it known that it is looking into complaints filed against 20 MPs-elect who might be handed either a red or orange card. A red card means disqualification for a severe election law violation, whereas an orange card will see their election suspended for a lesser offence.

In the event of a red card, a by-election is called, with the disqualified MP-elect barred from running again. An orange card prompts a re-poll where the suspended MP-elect can enter the race.

The source said that if half, or 10, of the 20 cases saw the disqualification or suspension of MFP people and Pheu Thai, the second-biggest party, dodged a red or orange card, it would have a profound impact on the political landscape.

It could only mean the MFP, the biggest party so far, would be equal with Pheu Thai, with 141 seats each. It was reported that some MPs-elect from a big party, understood to be the MFP, failed to vote in previous local elections. As voting in elections is a duty, failure to do so incurs penalties, including their ineligibility to contest a general election.

In a tie with the MFP, Pheu Thai would be equally able to lead the formation of a new government and look for suitors, which might include parties from the current coalition, such as the Bhumjaithai Party, the Chartthaipattana Party and even the “uncle parties” namely the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) and the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party.

Pheu Thai is likely to be at ease doing business with Bhumjaithai and Chartthaipattana, parties they worked with in previous coalition governments.

The major stumbling block preventing the PPRP and UTN from being part of a Pheu Thai-led administration is Pheu Thai’s vow never to work with the two parties while they are under the control of the two former coup-architect “uncles”, a reference to Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, chief adviser of the UTN, and Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon, who leads the PPRP.

However, some observers think Pheu Thai’s stand may not be as irreversible as many believe. If the “uncles” were to step down from their posts in their respective parties, a hook-up with the Pheu Thai Party might be less awkward.

The source said that despite the MFP-led bloc’s best efforts to present a facade of “normalcy” in forming a new government, its path to Government House will be anything but smooth and leader Pita Limjaroenrat’s aspiration to become prime minister looks far from being fulfilled. The EC’s forthcoming endorsement of MPs-elect, expected soon, is the least of its worries.

The next significant hurdle is whether the MFP or Pheu Thai is willing to step aside and let the other get the coveted House Speaker post. Such a move would be an enormous concession on either party’s part since they both have refused to yield.

Also, Mr Pita will have his work cut out defending himself before the EC and possibly the Constitutional Court against the iTV share ownership allegation. The law forbids a public office holder from possessing shares in media firms on the premise that they might exert control of the media outlet for political gain while in office.

Mr Pita acquired 42,000 shares in iTV, although questions were put forth as to whether it was still functioning as a media company. However, he is believed to have now transferred his shares to someone else in his family.

Some legal experts agreed that off-loading the shares now is not enough to save Mr Pita as the legal violation was a fait accompli.

His share ownership reportedly predates his signing, as MFP leader, of MFP candidate applications to stand in the May 14 election.

If he loses the share ownership battle and is removed as MFP leader, anything he has signed as leader, including the party candidate applications, could be declared null and void, and the respective MFP MPs-elect could be red-carded as a result.

The alliance ‘is doomed’

Winning 151 seats in the general election has put the Move Forward Party (MFP) in pole position to form a coalition and its leader Pita Limjaroenrat the front-runner to become the country’s next prime minister.

Jatuporn: Thinks Pita’s legal fate is sealed

But the controversy surrounding Mr Pita’s ownership of 42,000 shares in iTV, an independent broadcaster founded in the 1990s, has thrown a spanner into the works, threatening his chances of setting up the next government and leading the country.

The shareholding issue was brought to the attention of the Election Commission (EC) by political activist Ruangkrai Leekitwattana, a former Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) list-MP candidate, who asked the poll agency to investigate the shares on May 10, a few days before the polls.

The constitution prohibits an election candidate from holding shares in a media firm, and if found guilty, Mr Pita, who contested the polls under the party-list system, will be disqualified.

In his defence, Mr Pita argues that he held the shares in his capacity as the manager of his late father’s estate, and, more importantly, iTV is not actively engaged in media operations anymore.

It stopped broadcasting in 2007, and its licence was taken over by Thai PBS. The company was delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand in 2014. Its business registration remains active because it is embroiled in a dispute with the government over unpaid concession fees.

While insisting he did not break any laws, Mr Pita announced that the transfer of shares to other heirs early this week was to thwart any attempts to revive iTV as a mass media organisation to attack him.

He pointed to an iTV shareholders meeting on April 26 in which one shareholder asked if iTV was still a media organisation.

“Was the question politically motivated?… Was it an attempt to revive iTV as a mass media organisation?” Mr Pita posted on Facebook to explain the share issue.

While observers are split on the issue, with several arguing that there is still legal room for Mr Pita to challenge the share complaint, veteran politician Jatuporn Prompan believes Mr Pita’s fate is sealed.

According to Mr Jatuporn, who is familiar with lawsuits and the legal process, the April iTV shareholder meeting report leaves no room for doubt that iTV is a media firm.

A number of politicians were disqualified after the 2019 general election for holding media shares. One of them was Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, the leader of the Progressive Movement.

Mr Thanathorn, then leader of the now-defunct Future Forward Party, was found to hold 675,000 shares in a publishing firm prior to running as a candidate in the polls, and he was stripped of his MP status by the Constitutional Court.

The red-shirt United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) chairman reckons Mr Ruangkrai’s information source was the firm’s top management and his move is part of a plot to ensure that Pheu Thai will be the core party in forming a coalition.

However, as things stand, the eight-party alliance can muster only 312 votes among themselves and needs 64 more from other parties or senators for the coalition to materialise.

According to Mr Jatuporn, without support from one of the two “uncle” parties, the bloc cannot set up a government even if Pheu Thai became the core party.

The uncle parties refer to the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party with Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha as chief strategist and the PPRP headed by Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon. The UTN and the PPRP won 36 and 40 House seats, respectively.

In his view, the eight-party alliance cannot turn to the Senate for support due to Mr Pita’s questionable qualifications and the MFP’s policy on the lese majeste law.

“If Pheu Thai doesn’t switch camps and proceeds to nominate one of its own prime ministerial candidates for a vote in parliament, I believe the Senate won’t vote for that person, and they will have an explanation for that.

“It’s just not the time to say it now because the candidate of the hour is Mr Pita,” said Mr Jatuporn.

Pheu Thai will have a price to pay if it decides to ditch the MFP and bring in one of the uncle parties in exchange for senator votes, according to the former red-shirt leader.

Pheu Thai should expect a worse election performance in the future as those who voted for both parties to get their “dream” MFP-Pheu Thai government will seek to punish it at the next polls, Mr Jatuporn warned.

“Will Thaksin take the risk?” he said, referring to ousted former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the alleged de facto leader of Pheu Thai.

According to Mr Jatuporn, the prospect of a Pheu Thai-PPRP alliance does not look so remote given the limited choices, and street protests may also follow if the MFP is pushed into opposition.

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Southeast Asia in black and white

Hello Globe readers,

Another week came to an end and I hope that it was a good one for everybody. Before diving into the features, I’d like to remind you about our special mid-year deal. From 1 June to 1 July, you can subscribe to our annual membership for just half the price and get access to our stories. We’re an independent publication and your support is our strongest pillar, so a huge thank you from us all in advance.

Now, to the features. I should mention that we spent much of this week working on some longer-term reporting projects that you should be seeing in the coming weeks and months. As such, we ended up a little light for dailies — next week you’ll be receiving a much fuller roster. But in our latest, the Globe spoke with publisher Suridh “Shaz” Das-Hassan from Soi Books about their upcoming journal Plaza, which features street photography from around the region. There are some great photos in this one from Southeast Asian photographers documenting their societies, so check it out.

In the meantime, the extreme heat in the region hasn’t gotten any better. To mark World Environment Day this week, we featured an analysis by economist Vinod Thomas, a former director general of the Asia Development Bank. Thomas has recently authored a book titled Risk and Resilience in the Era of Climate Change and shared some insights with us about the urgent need for stronger climate mitigation strategies for the region.

That’s all for this week, may you have a wonderful weekend and enjoy the features!

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Prayut urges action on ‘Pattani State’ call

Outgoing Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha prepares to hold a press conference after the weekly cabinet meeting on Tuesday. (Photo: Chanat Katanyu)
Outgoing Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha prepares to hold a press conference after the weekly cabinet meeting on Tuesday. (Photo: Chanat Katanyu)

Outgoing Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha has told the National Security Council (NSC) to take action against a group of activists that called for a public referendum on whether there should be a Muslim “Pattani State” independent from Thailand.

The referendum call came in a seminar titled “Self-determination”, which introduced the “National Student Movement” or “Pelajar Bangsa” of the four southern border provinces that encouraged local residents to cast a vote for such a move at the Prince of Songkla University (PSU), Pattani campus, on Wednesday.

NSC secretary-general Supoj Malaniyom on Friday said that the NSC informed the premier about the matter and then ordered a fact-finding probe into the individuals concerned out of fears the call could lead to disunity. The NSC will hold a meeting next Monday to discuss the matter.

“The call for a public referendum on independence is apparently illegal and doesn’t benefit anyone,” said Mr Supoj.

“The security law must be imposed in the South in an attempt to prevent damages to properties and danger to people. Moreover, there is also the mechanism of peaceful dialogue which widens the chances of academics and representatives from many sectors participating in a discussion without activities that lead to societal disharmony.”

Meanwhile, Somchai Sawaengkan, the chairman of the Senate Committee on Human Rights, Freedom and Consumer Protection, urged the Internal Security Operations Command (Isoc) and security agencies to investigate the matter as he believed there might be a political party behind this pulling the strings.

Mr Somchai also urged the Election Commission (EC) to inspect certain politicians and elected MPs who attended the event. He claims he has a video clip of them.

“I believe that these students had no idea their move was illegal as there must have been adults behind this. We can respect freedom of expression, but a whole separatist movement will cause too much commotion,” he said.

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