World Scout Jamboree: How troubles plagued South Korea’s operation
EPAIn just a matter of days, the 25th World Scout Jamboree in South Korea was crippled by a heatwave, looming typhoon, Covid outbreak and misconduct allegations.
Complaints were followed by accusations of lack of preparation by the organisers.
Described as the world’s largest youth camp, the jamboree – or festival – gathers young Scouts from around the world every four years.
About 43,000 participants – mainly scouts aged 14-18 – gathered on 1 August for the 12-day event on South Korea’s western coast.
But campsite problems led to contingents pulling out. On Monday, an incoming typhoon which turned into a tropical storm forced organisers to call quits and evacuate all participants from the Saemangeum area- a vast, treeless flatland.
Scout groups are now scattered at sites across the country, including hundreds of kilometres north in the capital Seoul.
But the jamboree’s problems began long before the storm.
In the week preceding the event, heavy rainfall turned the campsite into a muddy swamp and breeding ground for mosquitoes and flies.
Days later, a heatwave shot temperatures up to 35C (95F) as the event began. About 400 cases of heat exhaustion were reported on the first night – with many people having to be treated at a makeshift hospital on the baking grounds. A Covid-19 outbreak also spread to about 70 campers.
The South Korean organising committee deployed additional medical staffers to the event, and provided more shade and air conditioners on site, but it wasn’t enough, campers said.
Participants complained about poor sanitation, rotten food, a lack of shelter and privacy.
A man from the Thai delegation was caught walking into the female shower facility. He said it was an accident, and he had not seen a sign designating gender. After the incident, all 85 South Korean scouts and leaders withdrew from the jamboree, saying organisers did not do enough to protect women.
By the end of the week, the UK and US contingents had pulled their thousands of scouts out of the campsite. They were followed by other countries including Singapore and New Zealand.
And on Tuesday, everyone else was evacuated from the Saemangeum site after South Korean authorities conceded it was no longer safe to run the event given the approaching storm.
Thousands of participants and volunteers were ferried out of the campsite in a convoy of more than 1,000 buses to other locations around South Korea. On Wednesday, one of the buses crashed, injuring three Swiss scout members who had to be taken to hospital.
The show must go on
Despite the evacuation from its main camp site, organisers say the jamboree, scheduled to continue to 12 August, will roll on with tours and education programmes in the new sites around the country where the scouts have been taken.
South Korea’s culture ministry also announced on Tuesday that a closing ceremony will be held at the end of the week at the Seoul World Cup Stadium, along with a K-pop concert.
A spokesman from the New Zealand contingent told the BBC it had taken their team years to raise funds for the event, and the adult volunteers were “determined to make this a positive experience” despite the challenges.
But the post-event autopsy has already begun. Some critics before the event- including local politicians- raised concerns about gathering so many people at a site that lacked natural protection from the heat.
A senior South Korean official, who was called in to the site last week, told the BBC he believed a key reason for the mess was the number of authorities involved.
“We dispatched some workers to the site, and there were reports that they couldn’t even have lunch. There were piles of lunch boxes prepared, but there was nobody to distribute it,” he told the BBC. He declined to be named as he said he was not authorised to speak to media.
On top of the Korea Scout Association, the project was also managed by the province’s officials, South Korea’s legislature, as well as three other government agencies including the ministry of gender equality and family, the ministry of tourism, and the ministry of interior and safety.
Logistical stuff-ups persist, Korean media report. For example, officials in one district prepared food and accommodation for 175 evacuated scouts of the Yemen contingent. But it turned out the scouts had not even attended the jamboree in the first place.
“This is the first time in more than 100 years of World Scout Jamborees that we have had to face such compounded challenges, from untimely floods to an unprecedented heatwave and now a typhoon!” said Ahmad Alhendawi, the Secretary-General of the World Organization of the Scout Movement, in a statement.
Natural disasters- like the typhoon – are an unforeseen calamity. The last time a typhoon had disrupted the event was at the 1971 jamboree held in Japan, a spokesman from the Scouts told the BBC.
But South Korean authorities will also be sifting through accusations of mismanagement after six years of preparation.
The jamboree is a major event. Countries bid to host the festival each time, and in 2017, South Korea won that right.
Local authorities had hoped the first world jamboree to held since the pandemic would bring in investment and tourist dollars. It was to be seen as the country’s largest undertaking in terms of international participants since the 2018 Pyeongchang Winter Olympics.
However, the event’s troubles have instead led to Korean media calling the event “a national disgrace.”
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Pheu Thai brings 6 small parties into its alliance
PUBLISHED : 9 Aug 2023 at 14:34
The Pheu Thai Party has brought six more political parties into its alliance to form a coalition government, lifting the total number of House seats in the group to 238.
Key members of Pheu Thai and the six new parties announced their alliance at parliament on Wednesday. The other parties are – Prachachart (9 House seats), Pheu Thai Ruam Palang (2), Charthaipattanakla (2), Seri Ruam Thai (1), Palang Sangkhom Mai (1) and The Thongtee Thai Party (The Party of Thai Counties), which has one MP and was formed by former village chiefs, health volunteers and other civil servants.
Pheu Thai leader Cholnan Srikaew said his party had now secured 238 House seats in its bid to form a Pheu Thai-led coalition government.
Pheu Thai and all its coalition partners were hopeful they could ease political tensions and would seek support from all sides, elected MPs and appointed senators, for its candidate for prime minister, Dr Cholnan said.
Also present at the announcement were Pheu Thai deputy leader Phumtham Wechayachai, Pheu Thai secretary-general Prasert Chantararuangthong, Seri Ram Thai leader Sereepisuth Temeeyaves, Charthaipattanakla chairman Suwat Limtapanlop, Prachachart secretary-general Tawee Sodsong and representatives of the other parties.
On Monday, the leaders of the Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai parties announced they would be the core of a bid to form a new coalition government. The two parties have 212 seats in total in the House of Representatives. The six new parties bring another 16 seats.
Pheu Thai came second in the May 14 general election with 141 House seats, followed by Bhumjaithai with 71.
On Aug 2, Pheu Thai dumped the election-winning Move Forward Party (MFP) and pulled out of the agreement signed with the seven other original alllies seeking to form a coalition government. The party said it would form its own coalition because the MFP insisted on amending Section 112 of the Criminal code, known as the lese majeste law, which many other MPs and most of the military appointed senators oppose.
Pheu Thai said it would nominate its own candidate for prime minister, Srettha Thavisin.
MFP leader Pita Limjaroenrat failed to win parliament’s backing when nominated for prime minister on July 13.
Deflation: Why falling prices in China raise concerns
Getty ImagesChina’s economy has slipped into deflation as consumer prices declined in July for the first time in more than two years.
The official consumer price index, a measure of inflation, fell by 0.3% last month from a year earlier.
Analysts said this increases pressure on the government to revive demand in the world’s second largest economy.
This follows weak import and export data, which raised questions about the pace of China’s post-pandemic recovery.
The country is also tackling ballooning local government debt and challenges in the housing market. Youth unemployment, which is at a record high, is also being closely watched as a record 11.58 million university graduates are expected to enter the Chinese job market this year.
Falling prices makes it harder for China to lower its debt – and all the challenges which stem from that, such as a slower rate of growth, analysts said.
“There is no secret sauce that could be applied to lift inflation,” says Daniel Murray from investment firm EFG Asset Management. He suggests a “simple mix of more government spending and lower taxes alongside easier monetary policy”.
When did prices start falling?
Most developed countries saw a boom in consumer spending after pandemic restrictions ended. People who had saved money were suddenly able and willing to spend, while businesses struggled to keep up with the demand.
The huge increase in demand for goods that were limited in supply – coupled with rising energy costs after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – inflated prices.
But this is not what happened in China, where prices did not soar as the economy emerged from the world’s tightest coronavirus rules. Consumer prices last fell in February 2021.
In fact, they have been at the cusp of deflation for months, flatlining earlier this year due to weak demand. The prices charged by China’s manufacturers – known as factory gate prices – have also been falling.
“It is worrisome as far as it shows that demand in China is poor while the rest of the world is awakening, especially the West,” Alicia Garcia-Herrero, an adjunct professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, said.
“Deflation will not help China. Debt will become more heavy. All of this is not good news,” she added.
Why is deflation a problem?
China produces a large proportion of the goods sold around the world.
A potential positive impact of an extended period of deflation in the country may be that it helps to curb rising prices in other parts of the world, including the UK.
However, if cut-price Chinese goods flood global markets it could have a negative impact on manufacturers in other countries. That could hit investment by businesses and squeeze employment.
A period of falling prices in China could also hit company profits and consumer spending. This may then lead to higher unemployment.
It could result in a fall in demand from the country – the world’s largest marketplace – for energy, raw materials and food, which would hit global exports.
What does this mean for China’s economy?
China’s economy is already facing other hurdles. For one, it is recovering from the impact of the pandemic at a rate that is slower than expected.
On Tuesday, official figures showed that China’s exports fell by 14.5% in July compared with a year earlier, while imports dropped 12.4%. The grim trade data reinforces concerns that the country’s economic growth could slow further this year.
China is also dealing with an ongoing property market crisis after the near-collapse of its biggest real estate developer Evergrande.
The Chinese government has been sending the message that everything is under control, but has so far avoided any major measures to encourage economic growth.
Building confidence among investors and consumers will be key to China’s recovery, Eswar Prasad, a professor of trade policy and economics at Cornell University, said.
“The real issue is whether the government can get confidence back in the private sector, so households will go out and spend rather than save, and businesses will start investing, which it hasn’t accomplished so far,” Professor Prasad said.
“I think we’re going to have to see some significant stimulus measures (including) tax cuts.”
Additional reporting by BBC business reporter Peter Hoskins.
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APAC is struggling to upskill its workforce. Can online platforms like Coursera plug that gap?
86 million workers in the region need upskilling
Malaysians are motivated by government subsidies for green skilling
75% of APAC employers, government officials and academics believe their country has a significant digital skill gap, this is according to a report by Economist Impact titled Bridging the skills gap: fuelling careers and the economy in Asia-Pacific….Continue Reading
Japan flexes military muscles in Australia
The Talisman Saber 2023 exercise has finished in Australia. The exercise included 13 countries and was an impressive and complex mix of amphibious, maritime, ground, air and combined arms training. And all geared toward war-fighting. Even Japan’s Self-Defense Force (JSDF) sent a contingent.
Japan’s contingent included the Japanese navy, along with amphibious ships JS Izumo and JS Shimokita. It also sent the Ground Self-Defense Force’s “Marines” – the Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade (ARDB) – and the Japanese army’s 1st Helicopter Brigade.
The Japanese even took advantage of Australia’s wide open training ranges to launch Type 12 surface-to-ship (anti-ship) missiles as well as Type 03 surface-to-air (anti-aircraft) missiles. They seldom do this sort of training in Japan.
And the GSDF brought other units from the Western Army, Eastern Army, and Northern Army. They even included the artillery training detachment from GSDF’s Fuji Schools. This gave them practice and also exposure to operations with foreign militaries and in a “foreign” environment.
It’s come a long way
By any measure, the JSDF has come a long way in recent years. A little over a decade ago, Japan was afraid to even deploy forces to its own southern islands.
The idea of sending the JSDF thousands of miles from Japan to conduct combat training, and with a collection of foreign militaries, would have given many Japanese politicians and the Asahi Shimbun editorial board the vapors.
On the United States side, State Department Japan Hands ー and more than a few people at USINDOPACOM ー could have told you it was all impossible and would never happen. And beyond that, the Chinese wouldn’t like it so don’t let it.
So it’s great the Japanese military went to Australia. But it’s bad the Japanese military went to Australia.
Huh? Here’s the problem.
It is impressive, indeed. One almost rejoices to see what the once insular JSDF is doing, and the scale of it all in a major multilateral exercise.
But they need to do this sort of training up closer to home – in and around Japan.
That’s where the trouble is coming and the fight will happen.
The problem isn’t the JSDF. Rather, one fairly notes that Japanese officialdom – including some defense bureaucrats – are too timid, as is their wont. They don’t have a sense of urgency about what’s coming their way.
Yes, they understand China (and Russia and North Korea) are a threat, and a scary one at that. But doing something about it? That’s a different story.
This writer will be more impressed when Japanese officialdom and society allow their own JSDF (particularly the Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade) to train in their own maritime terrain. “Key maritime terrain” is what it’s called in military lingo. And that means training with the Americans and the Australian Defense Force together.
There’s been some useful but relatively limited training between the US Marines and GSDF. But it’s not what it should be.
“NIMBY” (not in my backyard) is still strong.
Catching up to the shifting public mood
This writer thinks Tokyo is misreading the shifting mood and views of the Japanese public in general. And people in Okinawa Prefecture, including the Sakishima Shoto, in particular.
Too many pundits and bureaucrats are clinging to old, worn-out positions vis-a-vis the JSDF, the US-Japan alliance and deterrence. Those old positions are losing support, especially among working-age people.
One supposes Japanese policymakers feel comfortable in being slow to adjust since they have an insurance policy with the Americans in Japan and nearby. That buys them time to make decisions, they think.
Anyone involved in Japan-US military and defense matters over the years would recognize the following statement: “They just seek our assurances that we have their back from time to time and then do just enough to keep us engaged.”
If the Americans push too hard for real and useful training with the Japanese ー much less a combined Japan-US operational headquarters ー Tokyo will say they are saber-rattling and being provocative.
Of course, plenty of people will also claim it’s all just “too sensitive” politically for Japan ー and they’re doing their best. So don’t complain.
However, expecting the Americans to die on Japan’s behalf while Japan hasn’t done enough for itself (and for its partners) is also just “too sensitive” politically. But for the Americans.
Defense documents are just the first step
Sometimes one hears that since Japan’s three foundational defense documents were rewritten in December 2022, “counterstrike capability” (long-range missiles) are on order. Along with it, one hears that defense spending is set to double over five years – it’s “mission accomplished.”
Not quite. Now you need a military that can fight and an industry that can produce what’s needed. Along with it, how about a society that knows it’s got a direct stake in the matter and acts like it?
That requires a sense of urgency – that a government must have and create in society writ large.
Some people have that sense of urgency. Some don’t.
Nobukatsu Kanehara, a former national security official and adviser to former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, was quoted in the Wall Street Journal recently on whether Japan would help the United States defend Taiwan:
“We are building up our army, navy and air force, as well as space and cyber capabilities. Maybe in five years when our new shape is clearer, we will have to talk about new roles and missions in the region.”
Let’s get this straight. Mr Kanehara is talking about waiting five years before deciding what Japan might or might not do. In the meantime, Japan expects the Americans to take care of things and die on Japan’s behalf.
That’s not exactly a vote getter in Washington. Some Japanese are embarrassed by this notion. But Kanehara reflects a strain of thought in much of Japan’s older “elite” foreign policy class. And many on the US side take him as gospel, rather than saying to the Japanese, “Wait a minute! We need you to do this, this, and that.”
A sense of urgency
There is no time to waste.
Sadly, as is the case with many examples in post-Cold War Japan, something traumatic or semi-traumatic has to happen to bring about change, even if that means taking the first punch.
And that assumes you can get up off the mat, and aren’t down for good. So JSDF ought to do what it did in Australia, but do it up in Japan. Things are that urgent.
Grant Newsham is a retired US Marine officer and former US diplomat. He is the author of the book When China Attacks: A Warning To America.
This article was originally published by JAPAN Forward and is republished with permission.
Ancient lizard-like species discovered in Australia
Richard Freeman Scientists have identified a new species of amphibian that occupied Australia some 247 million years ago.
The finding ends a mystery that has captivated researchers since the 90s, when the creature’s fossilised remains were found by a retired chicken farmer in New South Wales.
Less than 10 fossils of the lizard-like species have been identified globally.
Experts say the discovery may “rewrite the evolution of amphibians in Australia”.
It was a broken garden wall at his home in Umina – a roughly 90-minute drive north of Sydney – that led to Mihail Mihaildis’s discovery of the extraordinary fossil, almost three decades ago.
The retired chicken farmer had purchased a 1.6 tonne sandstone slab to fix the problem. But as he sliced through the stone’s outer layers, the immortalised outline of an unknown creature revealed itself.
Mr Mihaildis contacted the Australian Museum in Sydney about his discovery, and in 1997 he handed the fossil over.
It was there in a climate-controlled display room that Lachlan Hart – the palaeontologist who would ultimately decode its petrified remains – first encountered it as a child.
“I was obsessed with dinosaurs… and so 12-year-old me saw that fossil on display back in 1997. And then 25 years later it became part of my PhD, which is insane,” Mr Hart says.
Mr Hart says it was “dumb luck” that led to his team, which was studying life in Australia’s Triassic era some 250 million years ago, being given the fossil to identify.
Remarkably, the mould contains a “nearly complete skeleton”, which is almost unheard of, Mr Hart explains.
“It’s got the head and the body attached, and the fossilisation of the creature’s skin and fatty tissues around the outside of its body – all of that makes this a really rare find.”
From that data, Mr Hart and his colleagues estimate the amphibian was approximately 1.5m in length and that it had a salamander-shaped body. The newly identified species has been named Arenaepeton supinatus, which means “sand creeper on its back” in Latin.
Scientists say the carnivorous amphibian once lived in the freshwater lakes and streams of Sydney. This particular species belongs to the Temnospondyli family: resilient amphibians that survived two of the earth’s five mass extinction events, including a series of volcanic eruptions that eradicated 70-80% of all dinosaurs roughly 250 million years ago.
Only three other fossils capturing the Temnospondyli species have been successfully identified in Australia.
The findings, which were published Tuesday, show that “Australia was a great place for animals to evolve and find refuge after mass extinctions,” Mr Hart says.
The extraordinary fossil will go on full-time display at the Australian Museum later this year.
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28 September 2021
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Royal prodigal son’s return stirs up Thailand
ReutersThis week people in Thailand have been distracted from the endless wrangling to form a new government by the unexpected arrival, from the US, of a cheery-looking, 42 year-old Thai lawyer, visiting the country of his birth for the first time in 27 years.
Vacharaesorn Vivacharawongse is the second of four estranged sons of King Vajiralongkorn. Until now they were widely believed to have been stripped of their royal status and to have no place in the line of succession to the throne.
But the succession became problematic after the king’s eldest daughter Princess Bajrakitiyabha, the most plausible heir, collapsed last December. She is still in a coma and seems unlikely to recover.
For years there has been quiet talk in Thailand about the possibility of one of the estranged sons being rehabilitated and brought back to play a royal role.
Mr Vacharaesorn’s unannounced visit could be the start of such a rehabilitation, although there has been no official statement from the palace.
He is one of five children born to King Vajiralongkorn’s second wife Sujiranee, a former actress whom he divorced in 1996. Mr Vacharaesorn and his three brothers, who were at school in UK at the time, were in effect banished from Thailand with their mother, and have lived in the US since then. His sister, Princess Sirivanavari was brought back to Thailand to live with her father.
In the past the four sons occasionally published letters appealing for reconciliation with their father, and to be allowed to return to Thailand, to no effect.
Mr Vacharaesorn has spent his first three days in Bangkok partly as a tourist, rediscovering the city, visiting temples, enjoying Thai food and riding in a tuk-tuk. He told journalists coming back was like a dream come true for him.
But has also had what appear to be official engagements, meeting Thailand’s most senior religious figure, the Supreme Patriarch of the Buddhist Sangha who is appointed by his father, and visiting a childcare centre sponsored by the palace. Many Thais will interpret this as showcasing his potential for royal duties.
Back in the US he has been the most visible of the four sons, very active in the Thai community there and openly supportive of the Thai monarchy. He appears to be the one who is most suited to and interested in taking a higher profile role in the royal family.
Until her collapse last year Princess Bajrakitiyabha was seen as the most accomplished of the king’s children who are living in Thailand. She is a lawyer who had worked with the UN and been Thailand’s ambassador to Austria.
The King’s youngest child, Prince Dipangkorn, who is 18, is believed to suffer from some learning difficulties, and it was widely assumed that Princess Bajrakitiyabha would play the role of regent, or even become queen, on the death of her father. Thai succession law leaves it to the monarch to designate his successor, which King Vajiralongkorn has not yet done.
So could Mr Vacharaesorn, a successful and popular figure back in the US, fit the bill? It is far too soon to say.
More likely this will be seen as an exploratory first visit, with further trips in the future to see how he copes in the public spotlight, and with the rigid protocol and sometimes Byzantine politics of Thailand’s royal court.
And it is impossible to know what King Vajiralongkorn’s views are on this. People in his inner circle have been known to go in and out of favour quite suddenly, sometimes disappearing from public view.
Whoever organised this return of a prodigal son will be doing so with understandable caution.
AI-powered Valkyrie drone designed for swarming China
The United States Air Force (USAF) has just tested an advanced autonomous drone showcasing new cutting-edge technologies, an artificial intelligence-powered flex of how the US may fight an air war with China over Taiwan.
On July 25, the XQ-58A Valkyrie drone successfully carried out aerial combat tasks autonomously using new AI-driven software, the Warzone reported.
The test, launched from Eglin Air Base in Florida, lasted three hours and was part of a tiered approach of training algorithms millions of times in simulations before conducting other testing.
The drone drill reflected the USAF’s phased approach to develop, mature and build trust in AI-driven autonomous capabilities and to migrate them from the laboratory into more operational environments.
The USAF Research Laboratory developed the algorithms used for the test, which The Warzone noted is part of the Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program, a critical component of the so-called Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) modernization initiative.
The artificial intelligence/machine learning test reportedly established a multi-layer safety framework, solving a tactically relevant challenge during airborne operations, The Warzone reported.
While the USAF has not provided details about the specific tasks involved in the test, it did stress that there will be a human operator in the loop for employing highly advanced autonomous drones.
Asia Times noted in January 2022 that the emergence of loyal wingman drones such as the XQ-58A Valkyrie reflects a requirement for mass-produced and expendable aircraft to be used in a potential conflict with China.
Expendable drones give a numbers advantage to their operators, acting as mass decoys, a swarming force or a force multiplier complementing crewed aircraft.
Loyal wingman drones can also extend the sensor ranges of stealthy crewed aircraft such as the NGAD, F-35 and F-22, operating in areas deemed too dangerous for the latter due to advanced air defenses or aerial threats.
They can also extend weapons ranges by designating targets with onboard target designators while the launching crewed aircraft stays out of range of enemy air defenses while remaining electronically silent.
The results of the 25 July tests could speed the development of drone swarms, which may prove decisive in a Taiwan conflict.
In February 2023, Asia Times reported about the US Department of Defense’s (DOD) low-profile Autonomous Multi-Domain Adaptive Swarms-of-Swarms (AMASS) project to develop autonomous drone swarms that can be launched from sea, air and land to overwhelm enemy air defenses.
AMASS aims to develop the capability to launch and command thousands of autonomous drones to destroy an enemy’s defenses and critical assets, including air defenses, artillery pieces, missile launchers, command and control posts and radar stations.
Drone swarms can flood enemy radar scopes with multiple targets, forcing the latter to waste limited missiles and ammunition, revealing their positions for crewed platforms, armed drones and loitering munitions to move in for the kill.
Machine learning and AI also allow drone swarms to look at targets from multiple angles, cross-check various targeting data streams and suggest the best point of attack.
Caitlin Lee and other writers noted in May 2023 for Aerospace America that AI will be a game changer for air combat since it reduces the risk to pilots’ lives and the cost of air superiority.
The writers argued that AI may eventually do everything that a human pilot can, noting that the US military is already experimenting with AI in dogfighting, the most challenging aspect of aerial combat.
Lee and the other writers cited the US Defense Advanced Research Project’s Agency (DARPA) Air Combat Evolution, which pitted a highly-experienced fighter pilot versus an AI-driven fighter in a series of simulated aerial contests.
They noted that the AI fighter scored cannon kills against the human pilot every time since it could aim its cannon with superhuman accuracy from seemingly impossible attack angles, outmatching the human pilot in a classical, close-range, turning dogfight.
However, Lee and the other writers note that while AI excels in black-and-white situations, air combat in the real world will present many grey areas requiring human judgment for the foreseeable future.
They argue that no matter how fast AI advances, human judgment will always be needed in making high-risk decisions in dynamic air combat situations.
A human-AI combination may be the ideal solution, as it combines human flexibility and moral judgment with the precision and reliability of automation.
Operator-in-the-loop systems architecture is still needed to avoid unintended incidents and assuage moral concerns about AI deciding whether to use lethal force. It may also prevent autonomous drones from going against their operators through flawed logic, software glitches or enemy interference.
While the emergence of increasingly autonomous drones may herald a more significant shift toward the eventual “dronification” of warfare, humans will still be needed to devise crucial concepts, strategy and tactics.
33 dead, 18 still missing after record Beijing rains
BEIJING: Thirty-three people have been confirmed dead and 18 are still missing after Beijing’s heaviest rains on record, officials said Wednesday (Aug 9). China’s capital has been hit by record downpours in recent weeks, damaging infrastructure and deluging swathes of the city’s suburbs and surrounding areas. Officials said Wednesday thatContinue Reading
US friend-shoring becoming Chinaâs export enemy
Some economists have argued that Washington’s new “friend-shoring” strategy will not significantly hit China’s export machine. Recent trade figures indicate they may have it all wrong.
Yes, they’ve averred, China will export fewer finished products to the West – but it will compensate by shipping more intermediate products to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and other developing countries, allowing China to focus on making more high-value products and thus bolster its position in global supply chains.
China’s latest export figures, however, indicate the US “de-risking” strategy may actually be hitting its mark. China’s exports to the US and EU dipped by 12.9% in May, 18.6% in June and 21.9% in July year on year.
The figures have also contracted month-on-month from March to July this year.
China’s exports fell last month even though US consumer confidence has been rising since May. The Conference Board’s monthly Consumer Confidence Index, which tracks US consumer markets, rose robustly to 117 in July from 110.1 in June. The index has been up for three consecutive months on the back of a strong labor market and easing inflation.
Meanwhile, the year-on-year contraction of China’s exports widened to 15.4% in July from 13.9% in June, according to the country’s General Administration of Customs.
China’s exports fell 5% year-on-year to US$1.94 trillion in the first seven months of this year, surging from the 3.2% drop recorded in the first six months of 2023. During the period, China’s shipments to the US, EU, ASEAN and Japan dropped 18.6%, 8.9%, 2% and 6.8%, respectively. Together they accounted for 39% of China’s total exports.
China’s exports to ASEAN grew in the first four months but plunged 15.9% in May, 16.9% in June and 21.4% in July from a year earlier.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who visited China between July 6-9, said on July 16 that the US would seek to ease tensions with China but continue to push forward its friend-shoring policy of reshaping global supply chains to reduce reliance on China.
The US considers both India and Vietnam as friend-shoring partners and Mexico as its top “near-shoring” destination. Yellen visited India and Vietnam to discuss friend-shoring on July 13-21.
Vietnam’s total exports, largely to the US, grew month-on-month between April and July, though they declined 10.6% year-on-year to $194.4 billion over the wider January-July period in line with easing Western demand.
But Vietnam has seen growing manufacturing orders in recent months, narrowing its overall export decline from 16.5% in April to 5.2% in July.
‘Non-economic factors’
Chinese officials and government researchers have blamed “non-economic factors” for the country’s recent flagging exports.
“In the context of an easing demand in the international market, some manufacturers in China are affected by non-economic factors, and they are forced to transfer orders and production capacity outward,” Cui Weijie, director of the Institute of Industry Development and Strategy, a research unit of the Ministry of Commerce, said on August 8.
“In addition, the previous ‘one-off driving factors’ such as the demand for anti-epidemic tools and ‘stay-at-home economy’ products have eased,” Cui said. “Stay-at-home economy” refers to a trend toward shopping online at home, which gathered steam during the pandemic.
Cui said China is seeking to boost exports of intermediate goods to members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a new Asia trade grouping. He said that now that the RCEP agreement has taken effect for the Philippines (on June 2), the scheme will provide more room for Chinese exports over the long run.
He said more than half of China’s exports to RCEP members are intermediate products such as auto and electrical parts, which amounted to 1.71 trillion yuan ($241 billion) during the first six months of this year.
The RCEP is a free trade agreement signed in November 2020 by 15 Asia-Pacific nations including Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. It took effect at the beginning of last year.
In a media briefing on July 19, Li Xingqian, head of the Department of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Commerce, admitted that China’s foreign trade was facing an “extremely severe” situation due to mounting “non-economic factors.”
Li said these factors included some countries’ “decoupling” and “de-risking” strategies, which blocked normal commerce at China’s expense. He said some nations’ politicization of trade has forced orders and production to move out of China.
He said the commerce ministry will help Chinese firms to cope with the “unreasonable trade restrictions.”
Processing trade
Wang Jiguang, deputy secretary-general of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference in Chongqing, said in an article published on August 5 that to stabilize exports China should boost “processing trade”, which refers to the manufacturing of intermediate products from raw materials within free-trade areas and comprehensive bonded zones.
He suggests the government should provide more tax cuts and fee waivers to processing firms and ensure that they have enough workers, energy and financial credits.
Between the mid-1990s and 2008, China’s processing trade accounted for more than half of the nation’s exports. The ratio fell below 50% in 2011, dropped further to 33% in 2016 and plunged to 20% in 2020 as foreign firms shifted toward placing orders with Chinese manufacturers to make finished goods.
On July 24, a meeting of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee, chaired by General Secretary Xi Jinping, said multiple measures should be taken to stabilize China’s foreign trade and investments.
The meeting called for supporting pilot free trade zones and ports that are aligned with high-standard international economic and trade rules and implementing more liberalizing measures.
Read: China boosts consumption as services activity slows
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