China’s Asia export boom bedevils US friend-shoring

China’s Asia export boom bedevils US friend-shoring

NEW YORK – China’s exports jumped 23% from the year-earlier month, breaking a five-month series of declines, China’s Customs Administration reported on April 13. Shipments to China’s neighbors in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) led growth with a 34% year-on-year gain, reaching a new monthly record of US$54 billion seasonally adjusted.

China’s leadership in digital infrastructure is an import driver of the export boom in developing Asia, we reported earlier this year (“Digital infrastructure propels new SE Asian Tigers,” February 5, 2023).

Exports to India rose in lockstep with shipments to Southeast Asia, reflecting China’s growing presence in Asian supply chains. Often cited as a “friend-shoring” alternative to China, India’s factories depend on Chinese components and capital goods, and its telecom companies overwhelmingly use Chinese equipment.

American efforts to shift production out of China prompt friend-shoring countries to import manufacturing inputs from China, Asia Times showed in a recent study (“The Great Re-Shoring Charade, April 6, 2023).

Except for Vietnam, which fell from an exceptionally large gain in February, all the major Southeast Asian economies showed jumps in imports from China during March. A standout is Malaysia, whose president Anwar Ibrahim recently visited Beijing.

Outside Asia, exports to Brazil registered 17% year-on-year growth in March. China’s shipments to the largest Latin American country have doubled in the past three years, in line with exports to Asia. Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, known as Lulu, is in China for a state visit this week.

On April 13, Lula toured Huawei’s Shanghai R&D facility. Brazil is a major destination for China’s digital infrastructure. In a 2021 speech celebrating the company’s 20th anniversary in Brazil, then Huawei chairman Howard Liang said, “Huawei has worked with telecom operators to connect more than two-thirds of the population of Brazil,” adding, “We are actively involved in Brazil’s efforts to build an e-government cloud. We also work with customers in finance, energy, manufacturing, and other industries to help them go digital faster.”

China’s exports to developing Asia alone are 40% larger than its exports to the United States.

Follow David P Goldman on Twitter at @davidpgoldman