After their canoes collided on October 22 close to the contentious Second Thomas Shoal in the roiling South China Sea, the Philippines and China are literally on incident program at water. As political tensions flared in a maritime region with significant political stakes, both edges blamed the other for the event.
A BRP Sierra Madre grounded vehicle island on the Second Thomas Shoal was about 25 kilometers east-northeast of the collision of a China Coast Guard vessel at approximately 6:00 am on Sunday. A Spanish task force reported the incident. It asserted that the Filipino team was in danger due to China’s” controversial, careless, and illegal action.”
The two Spanish provide boats and two beach guard ships entered disputed waters and were allegedly transporting” illegal creating materials” to warships, according to a statement from China’s international ministry.
According to China’s declaration andnbsp, the collisions happened after the Spanish boats disregarded warnings and approached Chinese vessels in an uncomfortable way. It stated that” the responsibility lies entirely with the Philippine side ,” which gravely broke the international maritime collision – avoidance rules.
Beijing claimed that” our operations were professional, standardized, legitimate, and legal ,” and that its coast guard ship” intercepted the trespassing Philippine ship in accordance with the law despite numerous ineffective warnings.” The rules to which the speech was referring was not specified.
vehement and serious charges
Military officials from the Philippines have from entered the rhetorical altercation.
Soon after a collision at sea between Philippine and Chinese coast guard forces at the hotly contested Second Thomas Shoal, Philippine National Security Adviser Secretary Eduardo Ano declared,” We will not be deterred and we will continue to resupply our troops in BRP Sierra Madre ] grounded vessel ] despite provocations. & nbsp,
Near the contentious feature, Vice Admiral Alberto Carlos, commander of the AFP’s Western Command( WESCOM ), directly blamed China for the conflict while stating that” our resupply sorties have always been regular and routinary.”
He claimed that his soldiers handled” Chinese vessels” harmful maneuvers with the utmost professionalism, ability, and patience to prevent any mishaps or unfavorable incidents.
Meanwhile, newly appointed PCG Commandant Admiral Ronnie Gil Gavan criticized China for acting” provocatively, irresponsibly, and recklessly ,” while highlighting the Philippines’ resolve to prevent” escalating tensions.”
The Philippine Navy ( PN ) and the Philippine Coast Guard ( PCG) collaborated on a resupply mission to the grounded BRP Sierra Madre, which serves as the country’s official base on the Second Thomas Shoal.
According to an arbitral tribunal’s decision at the Hague in 2016, the Second Thomas Shoal cannot legally be claimed as a territory by China, whose expansive nine – dash line claim was nullified on the legal basis of the United Nations Convention on l’Ocean Sea ( UNCLOS ). This is due to its low tide elevation within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone ( EEZ ).
China is obviously testing the waters in the South China Sea as the US appears to be mired in numerous problems in Ukraine and then Israel.
The Eastern power wants to terrify the Ferdinand Marcos Jr. administration, which has turned up to American allies in rebellion of Beijing’s earlier objectives, in addition to reiterating its broad claims.
As a result, there are growing concerns that China might use quick, decisive dynamic operations to restore control, impose its will over the disputed waters, and suppress the Philippines’ escalating issue contested lands.
Important allies, including the US, are coming to Manila’s linguistic security in response to growing worries about an armed conflict.
According to US Ambassador to Manila MaryKay Carlson on X, formerly known as Twitter,” the United States condemns China’s latest disruption of a legal Philippine resupply mission to Ayungin Shoal [ Second Thomas Shoals ] putting the lives of Filipino service members at risk.” She continued,” We stand with our # FriendsPartnersAllies in defending [ Philippine flag ] sovereignty and in support of a # FreeAndOpenIndoPacific.”
In a separate speech, the US State Department reiterated that the” 1951 US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty extends to military attacks on Spanish military personnel, people vessels, and plane– including those of its Coast Guard — anywhere in the South China Sea.”
Under the Philippine-US Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement( EDCA ), there are growing concerns in Asia about America’s wherewithal and ability to restrain Chinese assertiveness in nearby waters. This is true even in the face of strong assurances from Washington and an expanding military presence on Philippine soil by the Pentagon.
President Joe Biden insisted last week that the US does wage war in numerous conflict zones to support allies all over the world in a significant conversation. In the midst of the continuous military activities in Gaza, he requested further security assistance of US$ 61.4 billion to help Ukraine against Russia and$ 14.3 billion for Israel, maintaining that” American administration is what keeps the world up.”
Israel has benefited from more than$ 300 billion since its founding, while Ukraine received nearly$ 47 billion in defense aid from Washington alone last year.
A Brief, Sharp War
Regarding the Indo-Pacific, Biden requested only$ 2 billion in additional revenue, underscoring the Pentagon’s difficult return to conventional theaters of worry, especially the Middle East and Europe.
Since the Pentagon has repeatedly cited China as the greatest threat to US global leadership, many analysts were perplexed by America’s apparent new defense priorities & nbsp. According to a recent Pew Research Center survey, up to 50 % of Americans believe China to be the US’s biggest physical threat.
Due to their extremely minimal defence capabilities against China, US allies like the Philippines are now in a specially precarious position. The total defense assistance provided by the US to the Philippines since 2015 has been around$ 1 billion, the highest amount in the area but a pitiful sum in comparison to that provided to allies in other theaters.
Marcos Jr. has gradually embraced increased defence cooperation with the Pentagon since taking office last year in an effort to thwart Beijing’s aggressive actions. The Filipino president has increased his hope in an American security umbrella under an expanded EDCA after failing to secure any significant compromises on the marine issues during his journey to Beijing earlier this year.
Marcos Jr. properly injected the Philippines into the Taiwan issue by allowing the US government exposure to prized bases in the northern provinces of the East Asian country, much to China’s dismay and shock.
Beijing properly soon push the envelope further in the South China Sea, having been frustrated by Manila’s more confrontational stance but presently probably encouraged by the potential strategic overstretch of Washington.
The possibility that China will strategically engage in targeted battles, as it did with India in the Himalayas in recent years, to reinstate its will over the Philippines is causing growing concern in Asian security lines.
The Asian superpower has long relied on a” salami slicing” or” cabbage” strategy to increase its influence in the South China Sea, always avoiding direct military conflict or inciting the US-Philippinese mutual defense agreement.
Smaller competitors of China have had trouble responding to its” black zone” threats, particularly its increasing reliance on militia-driven swarming strategies. However, they now appear to need to get ready for possible small-scale but terrible conflicts.
According to some analysts, China may now be tempted to wage a” little sharp war” against some of America’s Eastern friends due to the extraordinary circumstances.
There are two isolates in Chinese corporate culture, according to eminent naval planner James Holmes. One favors a long conflict, while the other values an immediate, resounding victory. Mao Zedong’s experience can be placed on the past, and Sun Tzu is placed upon the former.
The Philippines’ resolve to renovate its place in the Second Thomas Shoal and its growing presence in supporting America’s deterrent strategy over Taiwan have possibly increased Chinas’ appetite for risk.
China has made it clear that it will use force if necessary if the Philippines remain with its ostensibly” provocative” activities, starting with ongoing work to renovate the BRP Sierra Madre and possibly allowing US military access to the country’s northern bases near Taiwan. & nbsp,
The Philippines and China may soon transition from maritime collisions to a short-term, strong war, with significant repercussions for peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific, absent any significant political find or stronger US sign of assistance.
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian at @ RicheyDarian on X, formerly Twitter.