China’s international rise under President Xi Jinping reflects Sun Tzu’s process of” subduing the army without fighting”.
Alternatively of direct military discord, China relies on socioeconomic, political and industrial influence. Through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative ( BRI), economic coercion and cyber operations, China has reshaped the geopolitical landscape.
However, this method is facing rising weight. The United States and its allies have increased economic dispersion and military measures.
At the same time, China’s domestic challenges, including an economic downturn and socioeconomic drop, raise questions about whether this strategy remains responsible.
As conflicts rise in the Indo-Pacific and global energy swings continue, is China keep its fall without provoking the very problems it seeks to avoid?
Sun Tzu emphasized winning through plan, fraud and emotional battle rather than brute power. Xi has embraced these suggestions, using monetary dependencies and political moving to increase impact without direct clash.
Unlike his successors, who prioritized careful economic development, Xi has taken a more aggressive approach in asserting China’s supremacy on the planet level.
Military clash with the US would certainly be costly. War may disrupt trade and economic security, the two columns of China’s rise.
Alternatively, China uses direct means to undermine adversaries while at the same time presenting itself as a peaceful world energy. This determined strategy has allowed China to avoid provoking a strong military response to its movements while steadily advancing its political objectives.
Financial development via debts diplomacy
China’s BRI is key to this method. Large equipment opportunities in Asia, Africa and Europe have created financial relationships. While China presents these tasks as mutually beneficial, they usually leave reader places financially burdened.
One notable example is Kenya’s Standard Gauge Railway (SGR ). China funded the SGR linking Mombasa and Nairobi, with intentions to expand to Uganda.
However, the task faces difficulties like stalled development and reduced consumption, raising concerns about its economic sustainability and Kenya’s debt load.
This style of loan politics grants China long-term effect over essential regions. Some nations accepting Chinese opportunities now find themselves caught between financial relief and social obligations.
While these tasks bring growth, they likewise strengthen China’s political reach, so ensuring that countries remain aligned with its passions.
At the same time, China has used industry as a tool against states that challenge its laws.
When Australia called for an inspection into Covid-19’s roots, China retaliated with tariffs on American wine, wheat and fuel. South Korea faced related treatment after deploying the THAAD missile defense system by restricting commerce and trade.
However, these techniques are not flawless. Australia properly redirected its export to other businesses, while South Korea strengthened its economic relations with the US and Europe. In contrast, many governments are now diversifying business partnerships to minimize reliance on China.
While economic force has worked in the past, its success is diminishing as more nations push back against Beijing’s pressure tactics.
At the same time, China is forcefully expanding its dominance in systems, especially in 5G, artificial knowledge and security.
Huawei’s global growth in 5G and other communications has given China a crucial edge in modern facilities. But it has also raised concerns over data security and espionage, resulting in bans and restrictions in many Western nations.
China also employs cyber warfare as a key part of its strategy. It has launched disinformation campaigns and cyberattacks against adversaries, especially in Taiwan. These operations aim to weaken enemy defences and control narratives without direct confrontation.
As technology becomes an increasingly powerful tool in global conflicts, China’s ability to manipulate digital landscapes will remain a crucial element of its strategy.
Diplomatic manipulation
China has placed officials in key positions within the United Nations, the World Health Organization and other global bodies.
By influencing international policies, China ensures that global governance aligns with its interests. This allows it to shape narratives, control regulatory frameworks and sideline opposition without resorting to force.
One of Beijing’s most significant diplomatic moves has been isolating Taiwan. China pressured several nations to sever ties with Taipei while increasing military provocations in the Taiwan Strait. The combination of diplomatic pressure and psychological warfare has made Taiwan’s international standing increasingly precarious.
The US was initially slow to respond to China’s economic and diplomatic expansion. However, in recent years, Washington has ramped up efforts to curb China’s influence. It has imposed tariffs, restricted Chinese technology companies and reinforced alliances in the Indo-Pacific.
Initiatives like the QUAD alliance and the AUKUS security pact signal a coordinated effort to contain China. The US has also increased military patrols in the South China Sea and provided arms to Taiwan. These measures indicate that Washington is no longer willing to let China expand unchecked.
Despite its successes, China faces mounting challenges. Economic growth is slowing, and an aging population threatens long-term stability.
Beijing’s real estate crisis and mounting debt add to its vulnerabilities. If China’s economic power weakens, its ability to sustain global influence may also decline.
Furthermore, China’s aggressive policies have alienated key trading partners. Countries that once saw China as an economic lifeline are now exploring alternatives.
The US dollar remains dominant in global finance, limiting China’s ability to reshape the economic order. As China grapples with internal and external pressures, maintaining its current strategy is becoming increasingly difficult.
Risk of military confrontation
China’s expansionist ambitions in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait could provoke a military clash with the US. While China has so far avoided direct war, its increasing military presence and confrontational tactics are heightening tensions.
The US and its allies have repeatedly warned against unilateral actions in the region. If China oversteps, it risks a conflict that could derail its long-term ambitions.
China’s leadership understands these risks. However, rising nationalism, domestic pressures and trade tensions could push Beijing toward more aggressive moves.
If China miscalculates the response of the US and its allies, it could find itself embroiled in a conflict it is not prepared to fight.
China has successfully expanded its influence so far without engaging in direct warfare. Sun Tzu’s principle of winning without fighting remains a core pillar of its approach.
However, growing global resistance, economic instability and military risks threaten the long-term sustainability of this strategy. The US and its allies are increasingly countering China’s moves.
Trade diversification, military cooperation and technological restrictions are making it harder for China to operate unchallenged. Meanwhile, internal struggles ranging from a fast-aging population to an economic slowdown may further limit China’s ability to project power.
The coming years will determine whether China can continue expanding without triggering the conflicts it seeks to avoid. While it has demonstrated that war is not the only path to dominance, sustaining this approach in a shifting global order will be its greatest challenge yet.
Tang Meng Kit is a master’s student in international relations at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies ( RSIS ) in Singapore.