After a year in which Asian stocks posted both their biggest-ever decline and their largest one-day obtain since 2008, place investors are working weekends, skipping sleep, interfering with business trips, poring on social media, and focusing on short-term trades, aware that one man at the world’s furthest reaches may destroy markets again at any moment.
No wonder the region’s economic experts are hysterical. In addition to the uncertainty in stocks, Japanese government bonds posted their worst day ever on Tuesday, credit expands blew out the worst in a row since 2000, the Chinese yuan dropped to its weakest levels since 2007, and the Indonesian rupiah hit an all-time small.  ,
The American penny dropped the most in a moment on Friday before the global financial crisis.
All those maneuvers shifted with regard to US President Donald Trump’s decisions regarding business and officials ‘ responses to those in Asia Pacific. And that’s why it’s proving to be so destructive to regional areas.
Forex traders will be the first to respond as markets reopen on Monday morning, regional time, after the dollar fell against almost all of the main counterparts.
This past year was “horribly tiring and emotionally draining because a new level of mad hits you,” according to Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank,” as soon as a set of parameters that’s put in front of you, as mad as that set is, a new level of mad hits you.”  ,
The global financial crisis was” a lot more severe, much more urgent.” The main difference was that it was designed by us as a team rather than just one person’s desires. That’s how it’s different.
Even though last weekend’s events terrified investors, the market reaction was more extreme than many expected.
Nearly half the portfolio had been transferred into cash by Nick Ferres, chief investment officer of Vantage Point Asset Management in Singapore, which runs a global macro fund with an emphasis on Asia.  ,
As markets began, he realized this wasn’t enough. We were defensive, he said, but” I wish I had done more.” In its three-decade history, MSCI’s Asia Pacific Index experienced the worst decline.  ,
” I worked Sunday through Monday, working.” This week, Ferres reported that I have averaged three hours of sleep per night.
People” completely underestimated the scale and scope of change Trump was going to bring,” said Prashant Newnaha, a Singapore-based strategist at TD Securities, “until the headlines.” They weren’t prepared for it, which is important.
By Wednesday, Vantage Point’s Ferres had spotted a turbulence in the Asian trading market that would compel the administration to soften its grip on tariffs. When yields suddenly spiked on fears of an unwind to the basis trade, the market was in turmoil.  ,
He was correct. Trump’s decision to halt some tariffs for 90 days caused Wall Street to rise and eased jitters in the bond market.
He claimed that” the stress in the bond market contributed to the pivot.” However, he still questioned whether a rebound would last long, and he instead chose to use the rally to divert more risk. The call was successful. The rally had reverted by Thursday in New York. He claimed that he put more risk into the rally than the other way around.
The more the episode drags on, the more your chances of seeing a decline in growth and profits are. It will result in a fundamental shock that is still being weighed against the market, according to Ferres.
The most enthralling aspect of Trump’s policy is the potential for quick turnarounds.
However, it’s odd because one person can flip the switch at any time, which is unusual for multi-strategy hedge fund GAO Capital in Singapore.  ,
According to Trump,” the recession genie has been let out of the bottle so people are going to be more careful,” and traders may now opt to stay up at night and avoid Truth Social for hints on Trump’s next action.  ,
After the rally, we witnessed profit-taking, with few people rushing in to take on new positions. We are still trading short-term and are acting reactively rather than fundamentally long-term.
All that volatility is also affecting regional business plans, aside from the markets. Indonesia’s markets fell on reopening following the weeklong Eid holiday, and Brian Tan, the head of non-China EM Asia economics research at Barclays Plc in Singapore, was in Jakarta for a business trip during the week.
After Trump announced the 90-day pause, he had to squeeze in time to deliver a note to clients early on Thursday morning. He then hopped into his car to juggling a few meetings.
Kok Hoong Wong, Maybank Securities ‘ head of institutional equities trading, said,” Everyone is still on edge.” It appeared as though the financial world was about to end on Wednesday morning, with stocks falling, stock futures falling, and the yen strengthening sharply. We experienced some panic buying at the open on Thursday morning, and by Friday it appeared that people had reacted to the rising sentiment.
” The awareness that Trump may not be the bottom has begun to percolate. Perhaps we will experience a longer-than-expected adjustment period following this trade tariff episode.
According to Louis Gave of Gavekal, a group that runs the Hong Kong-based asset-allocation consultancy Gavekal Research and some global funds, the volatility may have a positive effect.
In a note dated April 10, he wrote,” The past week has demonstrated that the ice investors are skating on is much thinner than most had believed.”  ,
Trump had to significantly reduce his threat of a trade war to stop the crisis. This implies that the majority of tariffs are currently back in the box. Trump is now aware that if he reopens the box, he will run the risk of another equity and bond market collapse. In consequence, it appears likely that the box will remain closed.
Even so, for traders trying to figure out how and where to invest their money after the week’s wild swings, the risk of a rebound is almost as dangerous as that of a new selloff.
” We started covering shorts in a lot of names and closing some short positions during the falling market on Monday,” said Jun Bei Liu, lead portfolio manager at Ten Cap, a long-short equity fund with a focus on Australian equities in Sydney.  ,
The fund increased the number of long positions it found to be less fortunate from a trade war, including those held by Australian companies like Fisher &, Paykel Healthcare Corp., Cochlear Ltd., and Pro Medicus Ltd.
However, it’s impossible to be complacent.
The market is “oversold on this pessimism,” she said, adding that even the slightest positive attitude is causing the market to move so quickly. Shorts are dangerous in this sector because some businesses are oversold and we have no idea how quickly they will recover.
–With the assistance of Cormac Mullen, Ruth Carson, Winnie Hsu, Abhishek Vishnoi, Prima Wirayani, and Winnie Hsu.
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