Russia’s invasion of Ukraine offers an unprecedented case study on the democratization of warfare, particularly in three critical domains: drones, cyberattacks and influence operations.
The accessibility of technology has empowered ordinary citizens to participate directly in modern warfare, reshaping how wars of the future will be fought.
Ukrainian civilians have demonstrated methods that could be followed by citizens in other countries facing similar threats. Military analysts and scholars must understand these trends to prepare for future conflicts, which are likely to incorporate similar decentralized strategies.
For example, if the United States were to engage in a conflict with China over Taiwan, civilians most likely would play active roles both in defending online and in supporting operations on the physical battlefield.
Cyber warfare: the IT Army’s pioneering role
On June 20, 2024, the IT Army of Ukraine – a decentralized group of volunteer hackers – claimed to have launched against Russia’s banking system a distributed denial-of-service attack that it described as the “largest DDoS in history.”
That attack temporarily crippled several Russian banks, causing significant financial disruptions and showcasing the effectiveness of decentralized cyber tactics.
In a hybrid warfare landscape the IT Army has become a key player, operating across both physical and cyber battlefields and redefining modern warfare.
The IT Army was initially formed in early 2022 following a call to arms by Ukraine’s Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov, who saw the potential of mobilizing civilian hackers to bolster Ukraine’s defenses.
The IT Army’s primary tactic – DDoS attacks, which flood networks with excessive traffic – is accessible and effective, democratizing cyber warfare by enabling individuals worldwide to participate without extensive technical knowledge.
The impact of the IT Army has drawn attention from Russian officials. In March 2024, Dmitry Gribkov, an aide to the Russian Security Council, warned Western nations that supporting the IT Army was akin to “opening Pandora’s box.”
Gribkov alleged that hacking experts were being trained in Ukraine and the Baltic states for cyber operations targeting Russian infrastructure, reflecting the Kremlin’s growing concerns about Ukraine’s ability to inflict pain on Russia.
The IT Army’s cyber offensive has inflicted significant and lasting damage, with economic losses estimated to exceed $1 billion. In early 2024, DDoS attacks on Russian companies doubled overall compared with the year-earlier figures.
The Russian energy sector in particular suffered a tenfold increase in such attacks, which weakened critical infrastructure supporting Russia’s war effort.
The IT Army has also collaborated with Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) to conduct synchronized DDoS attacks and drone strikes, helping knock out Russian telecom networks and CCTV systems. That reduces the visibility of Ukrainian drone operations and thereby increases their success rate.
Encouraging global participation, the IT Army utilizes social media to share tools, instructions, and targets, allowing ordinary people to contribute to cyberattacks. This open-call structure taps into a global volunteer base, including participants from Europe, the US and other regions.
These actions showcase a new type of warfare, one that merges military and civilian resistance and bridges the gap between traditional soldiers and online combatants.
Countering Russian disinformation: NAFO and civilian influence operations
The Ukrainian defense effort has also been characterized by resilience and adaptability in information warfare. The North Atlantic Fella Organization (NAFO), formed in response to Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion, has become a formidable force against Russian disinformation.
Using humor and memes to counter propaganda, NAFO – a leaderless, decentralized group – engages online audiences to keep the global spotlight on Ukraine and challenge Russian narratives. The group’s humorous approach, exemplified by Shiba Inu dog avatars, has proven remarkably resilient, making it difficult for Russian trolls to undermine its efforts.
Supporting Ukraine’s information frontlines, NAFO has been instrumental in fighting Russian trolls and countering disinformation campaigns. NAFO gained popularity by using Shiba Inu memes to mock Russian propaganda, making Russia’s accusations against them seem absurd. One ongoing joke within NAFO is that members are “real Shiba dogs employed by the CIA,” which deflects accusations while adding levity to their messaging.
Early in the invasion, NAFO’s success was clear when it forced Russia’s top diplomat in Vienna, Mikhail Ulyanov, off X (formerly Twitter) following a heated exchange with a cartoon dog. This flexible and decentralized approach has allowed NAFO to respond quickly to changing narratives in the fast-paced realm of information warfare.
The Kremlin’s discomfort with NAFO’s influence is evident, with RT labeling NAFO as a “vast pro-Ukrainian bot army.” Even Russia’s foreign ministry spokeswoman criticized the group in July 2023. The Economist described NAFO’s approach as “a remarkably successful form of information warfare,” while Jamie Cohen, a media studies professor, characterized NAFO as “an actual tactical event against a nation-state.”
NAFO has further demonstrated its influence by helping suspend the screening of “Russians at War,” a pro-Russian documentary by ex-RT employee Anastasia Trofimova, in Canada. The group’s efforts highlighted the broader dangers of Russian influence operations and underscored NAFO’s capacity to effectively counter these narratives. In the digital age, anyone with an internet connection can join NAFO, making it an accessible and powerful counterbalance to Russian troll farms, which have been influencing global opinion since the 2016 U.S. presidential election.
Volunteer-driven military tech supply chains
On the physical battlefield, Ukrainian civilians have also taken on a critical role in providing drones, which are essential to Ukraine’s defense strategy. Lieutenant Colonel Pavlo Kurylenko emphasized this reliance, stating, “We’re only holding back the Russians with crowdfunded drones.” He noted that FPV (first-person view) drones, many of which are supplied by volunteers, are a crucial element preventing Russian breakthroughs on all fronts.
Demand for drones far exceeds supply, and Ukraine has depended heavily on volunteers to manage drone supply chains since the start of the invasion. Dzyga’s Paw, a fund that has supported over 100 military units, has played a key role in delivering essential tech supplies.
Former tech professionals from the fund have coordinated drone operations for Ukrainian forces, building robust tech supply chains for the military. Volunteers have also devised innovative solutions, such as using Google Meet to livestream drone footage, providing commanders with real-time battlefield intelligence.
Despite the efforts of volunteers, Ukraine still faces challenges due to limited access to Chinese-made drones. Kostyantyn Mynailenko, a commander in the Liut Brigade’s aerial reconnaissance unit, said, “The Russians have many more drones than us. They have a stable supply chain sourced directly from China, whereas we must order our Chinese drones indirectly through Europe.” This procurement gap has made Ukraine heavily reliant on volunteers to source Chinese drones for nearly two years.
The future of decentralized warfare
The Russo-Ukrainian War has vividly demonstrated the power of decentralized, civilian-driven warfare, establishing a model that will likely shape future conflicts. Through the democratization of drones, cyberattacks, and influence operations, Ukraine has mobilized ordinary citizens and volunteers, showing that advanced military capabilities can be built from the grassroots level. With crowdfunded drones, volunteer hackers, and online influence campaigns, Ukraine has effectively empowered civilians to play an active role in defense.
This new approach, blending traditional military tactics with the contributions of individual citizens and decentralized networks, has proven highly resilient and adaptable. As military analysts and strategists examine the implications, it’s clear that the integration of citizen-driven support will become an increasingly crucial component in modern warfare.
Carl von Clausewitz’s concept of “small wars” has evolved – from irregular units gathering intelligence and disrupting enemy operations, to “armed” citizens engaging in digital battles through drones, memes, and cyberattacks.
Ukraine’s experience has provided an invaluable case study for countries worldwide, showing that in a digitized world, anyone with an internet connection can contribute to the national defense. The democratization of warfare is not new, but technology has reshaped and expanded its possibilities, redefining how wars will be fought in the future.
This piece is an excerpt from a report presented by the author at the UK Parliament on October 9, on behalf of the Henry Jackson Society, titled “Military Lessons for NATO from the Russia-Ukraine War: Preparing for the Wars of Tomorrow.” The original report includes extensive footnoting to show the sourcing of facts and quotations.