Sure A Not

If an article has a problem level in its title, it indicates that the author does not know the answer, according to a pretty common wisdom of news. As an editor, I often found this desire maddening, though not always unexpected.

The question mark is, nevertheless, justified when making decisions about an American presidential poll that is still more than 100 days apart and about a member who has only had four days to make an impact.

What we can do at this early period in what is now a Harris-Trump challenge is to identify strengths and weaknesses, perils and options.

In opinion polls, it is obvious that Harris performed much with responders than Biden before Biden’s departure, but no significantly. However, two limitations have to be applied to those elections. The first is that when the fictional became real, questions about speculative pairings never proved to be reliable indicators.

The next, which would have applied to Biden-Trump, also, is that, in the nature of things, most American citizens do not think critically about which selection they will produce until after Labor Day in early September, if next.

For Biden-Trump, however, there was a caveat against that caveat: since this was to be a re-run of 2020, voters probably presently knew everything they were always going to know — or want to know — about those two candidates, but judgments recorded in June or July might have been more durable than for earlier campaigns.

And the most important thing they knew about Biden was that he was 81 years old and showing symptoms of his time.

So a key question may be whether Kamala Harris ‘ voters now feel they are aware of everything they need to know about her, especially given that she has been her vice president for three and a half years, or whether they can get influenced by her plan to change their opinion of her. Two popular accusations are made against her: she failed to win the Democrat Party primary in 2020 and failed to win a vice president position.

Neither charge is conclusive: Plenty of subsequent winners failed in their early attempts at winning nominations, including Ronald Reagan ( twice ) and Joe Biden himself ( also twice ). It is not at all surprising or unusual that she has n’t played a leading role since taking office in January 2021 because they always act in the shadow of their presidents. However, her current job is to demonstrate that she can be a star when she occupies the forefront of the social scene.

As a result, she will do so with both the advantages and disadvantages of presidency. It is advantageous because the Biden-Harris administration’s financial history is far superior to that of the Trump-Pence administration that came before it.

Yes, there has been prices, which has diluted the feel-good element, but 15 million jobs have been created since January 2021, whereas from 2017-2020 America suffered a net loss of 2.9 million. Given the Covid crisis from 2020 to 2020, there is always room for debate about who was in charge of those figures, but occupants always have the right to take credit for what transpires under their control, whether or not it is appropriate.

Harris can destroy the situation by putting forth a strong argument about how poorly Americans fared under Trump in terms of their own financial circumstances and prospects. For he, too, is a sort of former: His president is current enough to be a strong storage for most people.

A potential drawback of Harris ‘ appointment is that it makes it more difficult for her to instill a distinct perspective on what a Harris presidency might be, specifically distinguished from what a Biden presidency would have been like.

She does, however, have some great opportunities to create some uniqueness. The first will be made when she chooses a vice-presidential prospect, which will inform voters about her potential role as manager and general personality.

The second will be included with every discourse today and starting on August 19th at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, when she can switch up the focus from Joe Biden’s. She may be tougher about her desire to reinstate abortion right, for example, and she can get tougher about Israel’s actions in Gaza, which will give some insight into her approach to international affairs.

Most of all, but, this election is not likely to be a challenge of policy thoughts but quite a challenge of stories. All national elections are similar in some way, but this one will be even more so because both parties are keen to make the two candidates ‘ campaigns stand out from the crowd.

The idea that Trump will want to make the most of is that this election is a decision between the strong, he, and the poor, ie Harris, is the dominant tale. He currently has a very muscular theme, but he will want to use it to frighten Americans and undermine their security during a Harris presidency.

The idea that this election is a decision between the young and the old, between the new and the sour is what Harris will want to convey. ” Hope”, “new” and” change” are always powerful ideas in elections if a candidate or party can credibly capture them. Harris ‘ current challenge is to get those ideas over the next three months.

As long as she may stand up to Trump’s abuse and lying, yes, in a solid way, she has a good chance of doing so.

For certain, he has a lot of remote and non-coastal America now sewn up, and a big group of sponsors in Christian Evangelicals. However, as long as a candidate can persuade them to turn out, independent voters are more prevalent than many people think, and Harris has a better chance than Biden of persuading women and minorities of all kinds to support her.

Her track record as vice president makes her vulnerable on the contentious immigration debate: She was given some responsibility to investigate the issues with Central American nations that route refugees through Mexico to the US southern border but failed to have an impact.

But she has a ready response if she can find a way to use it effectively: Trump voted against the bipartisan border security bill because he did n’t want Biden to gain on this front in the election year. If she wants to defuse criticism of her for being weak at illegal border crossings, she must expose and emphasize that cynical hypocrisy whenever possible.

The combination of that and her greater chance to increase female turnout among African-Americans and Arab-Americans could give her a path to victory if she chooses a vice-president who can deliver one of the larger swing states to her. In an election where before the weekend many voters disliked the idea of both candidates, Harris now has a chance to give voters who dislike Trump a valid alternative to avoid voting for him, which the primaries showed there were many Republicans as well.

Where Harris ‘ candidacy has a good chance of making a difference is by preventing a Republican sweep of both the state governorships and the houses of Congress. If Biden had refused to step down, Democratic Party leaders and donors had a deep fear that they might have lost not just the White House, which would be terrible, but also the Senate and the House, increasing the potential legislative impact of a Trump presidency. This still ca n’t be ruled out, of course, but it is definitely now less likely.

There is a ton to be won. A week ago, that did not look to be the case.

Formerly editor-in-chief of The Economist, Bill Emmott is currently chairman of the&nbsp, Japan Society of the UK, the&nbsp, International Institute for Strategic Studies&nbsp, and the&nbsp, International Trade Institute.

Bill Emmott’s Global View, Bill Emmott’s substack, was the first to publish this article. It is republished here with kind permission.

Continue Reading