The military government led by coup-maker Senior General Min Aung Hlaing is now in a dangerous and vulnerable place due to Myanmar’s generally disastrous disaster in the middle of an ongoing civil war. Does the natural catastrophe, which hit Mandalay, Sagaing, and the defense enclave capital of Naypyidaw particularly hard, cause a simultaneous regime collapse?
In quake-hit places, rebel groups have declared a peace to help support to reach the patients. The military government reported that 2, 928 bodies had been recovered, 3, 408 had been hurt, and 139 were still missing as of Sunday ( March 30 ). If these statistics are understated to minimize socially the effect of Friday’s temblor, which reached 7.7 on the Richter scale, is anyone’s guess.
The program reportedly continued its flying bombardments and shellings over the weekend, including an artillery strike on a doctor in Ponnagyun in an area controlled by Arakan Army rebels close to Sittwe, in spite of the announced ceasefire and the junta’s plea for foreign aid and assistance, which are now beginning to flow in from different nations.
However, those attacks in the middle of a previously unheard catastrophe should be seen as a sign of weakness rather than power. The junta’s risks have been further exposed previously when civil unrest is compounded by natural disasters like earthquakes, floods, cyclones, and landslides.
Natural disasters have in fact played significant roles in shaping social moves, especially in brittle state with illegal or tumultuous governance structures.  ,
Economic catastrophes have frequently exacerbated the structural flaws of different military regimes in Myanmar, making them even more vulnerable to insurgencies, global scrutiny, and domestic unrest.
And when the post-quake scenery emerges, rebels had immediately renounce their partial ceasefire in the name of an unmatched chance to take down a weak program with the principal city of Yangon in their sights and the defense capital Naypyidaw in their sights.
Losing” Heaven’s Authority”
According to Confucian and Buddhist traditions, a leader’s legitimacy is determined by their capacity to exert effective control and guarantee the welfare of their own citizens.  ,
In archaic China, hereditary lords were thought to have lost their authority when they failed to deal with natural disasters, leading to their eventual overthrow. Despite its liberal and nationalist bent, Myanmar’s military cannot escape the country’s greatly superstitious populace.  ,
Natural disasters frequently expose the stupidity of autocratic regimes around the world. That has been particularly the situation in Myanmar. More than 130, 000 people were killed when Cyclone Nargis ravaged the country in 2008. A natural disaster turned into a man-made tragedy due to the then-ruling regime’s refusal to allow international humanitarian aid feared by foreign scrutiny and also a potential US invasion.
The similarities to now are eerily similar. The regime’s ineffective handling of past reduction efforts following floods, floods, and hurricanes does not look good for the victims and disrupted survivors of Friday’s devastating disaster. Yet, today’s Myanmar is much more scattered, with the government’s hold on power much weaker than it was in 2008.
The coup in Myanmar is no exception. Conservative governments thrive on transparency. Through military-owned conglomerates like Myanma Economic Holdings Limited ( MEHL ) and the Myanmar Economic Corporation ( MEC ), the military has dominated large swathes of the economy over the years.  ,
But, the increasing volume of foreign aid to victims of natural disasters raises questions about monitoring and probity. As has previously happened, the distribution of aid money and resources into crooked military officers and their business associates runs the risk of further deteriorating the administration’s already fragile standing.
Authorities in Myanmar like Bertil Lintner and David Steinberg have lengthy argued that the life of different military regimes has depended on their capacity to maintain control of the economy while preventing opposition.  ,
The military must sometimes cooperate with foreign relief organizations or risk alienating the country’s fragile foundations, as natural disasters do as normal disruptors. Since the disaster, the United States, the European Union, China, Russia, India, South Korea, and the UN have all pledged to deliver humanitarian assistance.
Autocratic regimes are anathema to transparency, and the risk of exposure rises as investigation rises. The regime’s authority over crucial sources may decline further if humanitarian aid turns into a social tool that deviates from military channels.
strengthening rebel arms
The political and administrative brain centers of Myanmar, Mandalay and Naypyidaw, have recently experienced severe flooding and the disaster.  ,
The Arakan Army ( AA ), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army ( MNDAA ), and theTa’ang National Liberation Army ( TNLA ), among others, benefit from this structural breakdown.
These organizations have already demonstrated their ability to launch well-planned offensives against Myanmar’s defense, as evidenced by their most recent crushing victories on the battlefield and their traditional seizing of territory that was once under the control of the regime.
Guerrilla war thrives in settings where the freedom and provide lines of standard armies are hampered, according to security expert Anthony Davis.  ,
Important roads will be forced by the military to rely on air energy, but with minimal gas supplies and mounting administrative problems, air supremacy may not be viable. However, the resistance forces, deeply embedded in local populations and flexible to hard terrain, have undoubtedly gained a new foothold in numerous quake-hit areas.
When state troops are cut off from their source ranges, their ability to project power usually suffers catastrophic consequences, as evidenced by the story of uprisings in Southeast Asia. The Ho Chi Minh Trail served as a crucial artery for the Vietnam War, enabling them to outmaneuver and ultimately outlive a far superior military force.  ,
Similar to Myanmar’s ethnic armed groups, which have recently experienced natural disasters to strengthen their strategic position.
illusion of stability
Even when there are cracks within, autocratic regimes frequently maintain a façade of stability. Through military parades, diplomatic missions, and economic partnerships with nations like China and Russia, Myanmar’s junta has attempted to create an image of control.
However, the influx of foreign humanitarian aid, which is frequently mediated through independent organizations, perpetuates this illusion. Humanitarian missions adhere to neutrality principles, but their presence always raises international scrutiny.
According to scholars like Mary Callahan, the influx of foreign aid workers and organizations frequently results in greater external exposure of human rights violations.  ,
A new infusion of humanitarian aid and the presence of foreign aid workers in Myanmar could lead to more documented cases of military abuses, from forced labor to war crimes.
Additionally, aid that bypasses military channels and travels to affected populations through neighborhood organizations, many of which have ties to or sympathize with the armed resistance, may also serve to undermine the junta’s authority and standing on the ground.
Additionally, external actors like the United Nations and the European Union may play a more direct role in providing assistance as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ( ASEAN ) is increasingly divided over how to address the Myanmar crisis. ( Despite the possibility of some US aid, the closure of USAID will lessen America’s influence. )
The military will struggle to maintain its control over crucial resources if non-state actors are tasked with distributing foreign aid, further reducing its influence over many already marginalized local populations.
The junta of Myanmar is becoming more and more dependent on the recurrent crises of civil war and the earthquake disaster that occurred on Friday. Min Aung Hlaing, the regime’s leader, struggles with maintaining control, and his previous inability to effectively and fairly respond to disasters may be detrimental to Myanmar’s post-quake response.
The military’s ability to control important resources will decrease as foreign aid enters the nation, exposing the regime’s severe structural deficiencies. A perfect storm could result from corruption, poverty, and infrastructural destruction, accelerating the junta’s decline and potential collapse.  ,
The junta’s potential fall is still uncertain, but the picture is this: Myanmar’s military dictatorship is failing to deliver on its promises amid widespread desperation and suffering, and its armed and unarmed adversaries are becoming stronger day by day.
Phar Kim Beng, PhD, is a senior research fellow at the University of Malaya’s Asia-Europe Institute and professor of ASEAN studies at the Islamic International University Malaysia ( IIUM).