The Association of Southeast Asian Nations ( ASEAN ) and its position in the world security spotlight will have a significant impact on the year ahead due to Donald Trump’s resumption of office and the growing superpower conflict in the Indo-Pacific.
Pete Hegseth, the nomination for Trump’s defence minister, received mockery in the region for not mentioning an ASEAN member at his verification hearing this week.
But the apparent cluelessness of the Pentagon’s inbound chief just underscores ASEAN’s growing political irrelevance among Washington’s proper aristocracy.
The following Trump administration, which is reportedly rife with China hawks, is expected to put mounting pressure on local nations to do the same or face Washington’s indignation. Among them will be coming Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Undersecretary for Policy Elbridge Colby.
As a result, ASEAN will increasingly challenge to successfully “hedge” between rival countries as both the US and China try to take advantage of the crucial and strategic area.
That puts Malaysia, this year’s circular seat of the local bloc, in the political heated seats. Amran Mohamed Zin, secretary-general of Malaysia’s foreign government, said there will be 357 ASEAN-related conferences, including 14 high-level sessions featuring heads of government and position, this year.
The ASEAN Foreign Ministers ‘ Retreat in Langkawi, gathering more than 200 international members and officials this trip, will formally launch Malaysia’s ASEAN chair.
Although the local system operates on a consensus-based decision-making mode, ASEAN’s rotary head has great impact in terms of shaping its agenda and policy direction.
The president may issue an independent” Chairman’s Declaration” whenever there is disagreement or hostility over a contentious regional problem, as evidenced by the ongoing civil unrest in Myanmar.
Malaysia chose” Inclusivity and Sustainability” for this year’s design, underscoring the importance of trade, investment and financial problems for the local system.
Prior to the end of the 2025 year, ASEAN leaders were confident enough to establish a local popular market that would serve as the foundation of regional stability throughout the 21st century.
Actually, Malaysia’s chairmanship this year widely echoes like aspirations despite remarkable changes in the local geopolitical, geo-economic and worldwide trade landscapes.
We must set the proper priorities with specific milestones, and be optimistic. What we want to deliver must create value”, said ASEAN Business Advisory Council ( BAC ) Malaysia chairman Tan Sri Nazir Razak , during the ASEAN Economic Opinion Leaders Conference: Outlook for 2025.
” Another idea is the notion of an ASEAN business entity, a more complex, more contentious, but I think it could be the single-biggest move forward in ASEAN business…This initiative would bring our markets closer together, and I believe it could be very productive”, he added during the event hosted by Malaysia’s Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry ( MITI ) earlier this month.
Crucially, the popular Indonesian firm chief emphasized the value of political “neutrality” and also praised the “decoupling” between the US and China as a chance for ASEAN states to maximize investment from competing wonderful powers.
Earlier, popular Malaysian political scientist , Cheng-Chwee Kuik argued , along similar lines by insisting that the best course of action for ASEAN claims is to “hedge” their stakes and, consequently, reject position with any of the nations.  ,
” Hedging is about reducing risks and for us here in ASEAN, it is essential… Hedging is a product of uncertainty. You may gain some and you may lose some, but no one does it because of naivety”, he said during the same conference.
Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, however, has stretched the notion of ASEAN “hedging”. On the one hand, he has largely avoided criticizing China on important issues, including those involving the South China Sea disputes.  ,
When asked about China and the Philippines ‘ ongoing maritime disputes, Anwar said,” There should be no involvement of other parties because it would ( then ) be deemed more complex and will complicate the matter.”
We ( Malaysia ) engage diplomatically in a more aggressive manner, and I think that’s pretty effective. There have been some very serious issues, too, with Malaysia, but we have been relatively more successful in that regard. When asked about the Philippines ‘ growing security cooperation with Western partners to stop China, Anwar said,” We are deemed to be really neutral in the engagement.
Anwar has increased his criticism of the West in addition to declining to stand in solidarity with the neighboring Philippines. Throughout the past year, he has accused Western nations of “hypocrisy” on the Gaza conflict as well as” Sinophobia”.
” We do not want to be dictated]to] by any force. Therefore, while we are still close friends with the United States or Europe and here in Australia, they should not prevent us from interacting with China, one of our most important neighbors. That was the context. And if China has problems, they shouldn’t force it on us,” he said to the Australian media at the ASEAN-Australia Summit last year. ” China is not a problem for us.” So, that’s why I referred to the issue of China-phobia in the West”.
Meanwhile, Anwar has actively promoted China , as an indispensable partner for regional development. After all, Malaysia has been a major beneficiary of a massive influx of foreign investments, including from China. And with the Southeast Asian nation on the cusp of achieving the , much-vaunted “high-income” status, Anwar has every reason not to rock the boat at ASEAN this year.
The incoming Trump administration, however, will likely have little patience for ASEAN dithering or any hint of China-friendly opportunism dressed up as diplomatic “hedging”. Hegseth made it clear that China is “front and center” among the US’s threats to China during his confirmation hearing for the defense secretary position.
In his opening remarks, Hegseth emphasized the need for strengthening deterrence and, accordingly, working with key regional allies and partners to check China’s assertiveness in adjacent waters.
He also criticized the incoming Biden administration for not moving the country’s strategic focus away from traditional theaters like Europe and the Middle East in favor of a China-focused Indo-Pacific strategy.
Senator Marco Rubio also addressed China during his confirmation hearing as secretary of state, urging the Asian superpower to stop “messer with Taiwan and the Philippines because it’s forcing us to concentrate our attention in ways we prefer not to have to do.”
” I think that’s critical, not just to defending Taiwan ( but ) to preventing a cataclysmic military intervention in the Indo-Pacific”, Rubio told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee during a five-hour-long hearing.  ,
Rubio emphasized the importance of reestablishing” a proper geopolitical balance between the United States and China” as a major thrust of the incoming Trump administration’s foreign policy.
The first Trump administration publicly opposed any major decisions by the regional body that might support China’s revisionist objectives despite having ASEAN as a key partner.
For instance, former USNNSA advisor John Bolton publicly warned ASEAN against any regional code of conduct that would impose restrictions on American military proxies and legitimize China’s extensive maritime claims in violation of international law.
A second Trump administration’s willingness to tolerate inaction or dithering from an even more powerful and influential China will likely set the stage for potentially contentious diplomatic relations with the regional bloc and its Beijing-friendly and outspoken chairman Anwar.
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Rich Heydarian