While the war in Ukraine rages on, Chicken is attempting to portray itself as a link between Russia and the West. Such a foreign policy may help Ankara achieve some of the geopolitical goals not just in the Black Sea region, but also in the Middle East, as well as in the South Caucasus.
Last week, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan traveled to the Russian resort of Sochi to satisfy with Vladimir Putin. Only 17 times earlier, the two leaders had met in Tehran, where Erdogan reportedly sought to get the ok from Russia and Iran to launch the “special military operation” in northern Syria. In Sochi, that will war-ravaged nation had been on the agenda once again.
Putin and Erdogan “stressed the key importance of genuine, candid and trustful relations between Russian federation and Turkey within achieving regional and international stability, ” the two presidents mentioned in a joint statement after a four-hour meeting. “The significance of preserving the political unity and territorial integrity of Syria was also stressed. ”
Will that mean Turkey will never invade Syria once more, and will give up its ambitions to create a 30-kilometer-deep buffer zone in northern Syria across the Turkish border?
Prior to the meeting, the Kremlin called on Ankara “not to destabilize” Syria, adding that it is extremely important “not to allow any action that could jeopardize the territorial and political integrity associated with Syria. ” Chicken sees Kurdish militants in northern Syria as a major safety threat while Russia backs Syrian Chief executive Bashar al-Assad.
But what if Ankara decides to raise the particular stakes, and attempts to force Moscow to make concessions to Turkey regarding Syria?
For instance, rather than destabilizing Syria, Turkey could indirectly destabilize Moscow’s nominal best friend Armenia in the Caucasus region. Recently, Azerbaijan’s restive Nagorno-Karabakh area, where Russia has almost 2, 000 peacekeeping troops, has been on the brink associated with escalation.
The Azerbaijani Protection Ministry charged Armenian-backed Nagorno-Karabakh troops associated with targeting its military positions in the region of Lachin, which is under the supervision of the Russian peacekeeping push. After that, Azerbaijan, that is rich in oil and gas, reportedly took control over several strategic positions within the mountainous region.
Given that Moscow remains preoccupied along with Ukraine, it is improbable that it can help Armenia in case it leads to an escalation within the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, is firmly backed by Chicken. The two countries established allied relationships in 2021, which means that Ankara could use the unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to place pressure on the Kremlin to turn a blind eye to possible Turkish actions in northern Syria.
From Turkey’s perspective, such a proceed would perfectly illustrate how weak the Kremlin’s positions in Syria and the South Caucasus have become. At the same time, it would clearly show that Moscow might have a very hard time conserving its influence both in regions.
Indeed, as a result of Russia’s isolation in much of the global arena, Erdogan seems to have the upper give over Putin, which means that the Russian president may eventually have to be certain concessions to his frenemy.
Erdogan, on the other hand, could use Putin as a source of leverage with the United States. The particular Turkish president has reportedly stated that will Putin proposed establishing in Russia the joint factory that will produce military drones.
However , Haluk Bayraktar, the main executive of Turkey’s Baykar company, which produces sophisticated unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), ruled out supplying Bayraktar drones to Russia. Ukraine happens to be using Bayraktar drones against Russian soldiers.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied that Putin and Erdogan discussed the jingle issue during the Sochi summit, even though he previously said the two leaders would certainly discuss military-technical assistance.
Whether they talked about Bayraktar drones, which have proved so effective in a number of other recent clashes, Erdogan was probably sending a message in order to Washington: If you continue opposing our programs to fight the Kurdish-dominated People’s Protection Units (YPG) within northern Syria, we may sell drones in order to Russia, or create a joint drone-manufacturing corporation with Moscow.
Such an motion, however , would have huge implications for Turkey’s membership in the Northern Atlantic Treaty Organization, especially given that Ankara’s purchase of the Ruskies S-400 anti-missile techniques in 2019 had a serious impact on its relations with Wa.
For this reason Erdogan is unlikely to risk any additional confrontation with the ALL OF US, and will continue aiming to balance Turkey’s alliance with Washington as well as economic cooperation with Russia.
In contrast to other NATO allies, Ankara has not became a member of anti-Western sanctions, neither does it intend to quit purchasing Russian power. Moreover, according to Ruskies Deputy Prime Ressortchef (umgangssprachlich) Alexander Novak, Putin and Erdogan have agreed that Ankara will start making obligations for Moscow’s natural gas in rubles.
In addition , despite sanctions, Bloomberg reported that Russia’s state-run nuclear-power large Rosatom recently transferred “around $5 billion” to a subsidiary in Turkey building the US$20 billion nuclear power plant in the country’s Mersin province. The Akkuyu Nuclear Plant is anticipated to produce up to 10% of Turkey’s electricity once all four reactors are in operation within 2023.
Even though Ankara remains one of Washington’s most important allies in the Middle East, it will almost certainly protect a significant autonomy in its foreign policy, and will continue developing practical ties with Russia. Such a Turkish position will allow Moscow to stay an unavoidable local actor, at least for the moment.
In the long run, the Kremlin, due to its isolation and an army debacle in Ukraine, could eventually turn out to be Turkey’s junior partner in a geopolitical tango that Moscow plus Ankara dance through the Middle East, through the Caucasus as well as the Black Sea area, all the way to Central Asia .
This article was provided by Syndication Bureau , which holds copyright.