The Trump administration will likely have to come up with an original plan to put an end to the battle, and it is unlikely to be able to reach a complete agreement with Ukraine right away. There are some challenges to overcome, in part because the Russians have zero faith in anything coming from the West, in part because the Ukrainians are unreliable partners, and in part because Europe wants to keep the combat going.
In an interview with the New York Post, President Trump acknowledges having at least one phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin and doesn’t act out having more. The Kremlin has not independently confirmed or refuted reports that names have occurred, but Russia officially claims that it has not received any ideas from the US area.
However, the US is sending Vice President J. D. Vance and retired Public Keith Kellogg to the Munich Security Conference. Zelensky will even attend the meeting, Kellogg says that he is preparing “options” for President Trump but didn’t disclose them at the Munich event.
What can be accomplished in Munich is unclear. In reality, US high level participation at the Munich event was really stifle any agreement with Russia because America’s Western colleagues are urging more war, no less. ( Of course, the Europeans expect America to keep footing the bill for the conflict. )
Russia sees Zelensky and the Europeans as having little or no reason to deal. Putin, however, plainly favors negotiating with the United States. Obviously, if a deal can be found, Putin believes that the only feasible agreement will be between Russia and the US.
The Russians have thrown in more resources to fight in Kursk, but as it appears right now, after some initial increases, the Russian insulting is being rolled up. In other areas, Ukraine is attempting to use more troops to occupy positions in Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk, two important cities. It is too soon to know if the Russian progress, slower and plodding as it is, may be halted. However, Ukraine is working hard to recover from its numerous field loses and is now using its F-16s for the first time to help front-line activities.
All in all, Ukraine is trying to buy time and stop a significant Russian advance that may cause a complete collapse in Ukraine’s threats. Zelensky’s issue is threefold:
- He is losing men at a higher level, including supposedly thousands of traitors.
- He can no longer depend on US-wide weapons deliveries, whose have will unavoidably more deteriorate Ukraine’s ability to fight.
I don’t believe the Trump presidency will deliver any great things to Zelensky. In fact, there are more than stories that the management wants to replace Zelensky with a more flexible management, possibly by the fall. Obviously, Zelensky does not consent and says that elections , would wreck the military.
While General Kellogg will consider options for President Trump’s consideration, many of the potential elements of a deal with Russia are already known ( and numerous press leaks tend to confirm what the administration is thinking ).
One option may be taken off the table immediately, unless it is apparently modified. That is the concept behind a ceasefire to end the battle. A peace would allow Ukraine to resurrect its defense and build up a new, bigger arsenal of weapons, according to the Russians. A ceasefire in area is similar in concept to what was agreed double ( 2014 and 2015 ) in the Minsk partnerships.
The level of confidence is so low now that it’s difficult to believe that the Russians will back any claims, such as stopping any additional arms sales to Ukraine.
Although it’s unclear whether acknowledging Russia’s wars in Ukraine means de facto understanding of the status quo or, rather, de law popularity that the captured lands are a legal part of Russia, the alleged US plan also includes a acknowledgement of the conquests by Russia in Ukraine.
Under the now defunct Minsk agreements, Donetsk and Luhansk would have remained part of Ukraine and subject to ( some ) Ukrainian laws and administration, but would in some unspecified manner be autonomous with protections for the Russian-speaking population of these territories. It is obvious that concept has been superseded by Russia’s settlements of these lands, which also include Zaphorize, Kherson and Crimea.
Without a long-term agreement between the external and internal events, the Ukraine war never come to an end.
It appears that the Trump administration is not opposed to reversing any upcoming Ukrainian participation in NATO.  , Keeping NATO out of Ukraine is a vital requirement made by the Russians. There is a concern, yet.
If Ukraine is to join NATO, Zelensky has argued that he will need protection offers from the US and NATO troops to protect Ukraine. One can ask, what is the difference in practice if there are NATO troops in Ukraine ( perhaps officially as peacekeepers ) and security guarantees?
In fact, this is exchanging one difficulty, NATO membership, for another, NATO military and security offers.
A cushion zone, which is still undefined, is one way out of this conundrum. The alleged peacekeeping force may either work in the buffer area or remain outside of it. Who would be in charge of creating a cushion area, and how could it be managed?
In the Minsk agreements, the , Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe , ( OSCE ) was supposed to help keep the peace and prevent violations of the deal. It was a loss, and the OSCE is unlikely to do so once more. Today there are not many other applicants. The UN had serve some sort of monitoring function, similar to the OSCE, but the UN’s performance abroad has been far from stellar.
The Ukraine kerfuffle has many other problems, too. Russia does want its cash reserves in European and American businesses  , returned, apparently with interest. Whatever it may be fair, the arrest of Russian funds is likely to violate international law. Those assets are  , valued at around$ 300 billion, perhaps more. Ukraine has received the information gained from the seized Russian resources.
Another problem of some result is the gas and oil pipelines. Nordstream, for instance, was largely destroyed by “unknown” events. You Russia, one of the owners in Nordstream,  , require compensation?
In addition, there is the broader spectrum of sanctions, including the bank and SWIFT system, blocking transport and sales of products and other limitations that affect Russia. You Trump offer the Russians restrictions comfort, and can he get Europe to collaborate? Get note that General Kellogg is suggesting , greatly increasing the sanctions , then as a way to force Russia into a package.
Internally, there is a problem with Russian speakers being protected in Ukrainian cities and towns that are under Ukraine’s command. Infringes on Western political and human rights standards by enacting cultural and religious laws in Ukraine. Did a resolution to peace require that Ukraine reform them?
Given the breadth of the issues and Trump’s unwillingness to support any agreement that rewards the Russians, the EU and its main supporters ( Germany and France ), are, it is unlikely that Trump will be able to secure a comprehensive agreement.
This suggests that the Trump administration may possibly attempt to “move the knife” on a package by creating potential future alternative mechanisms in trade for ending the fighting, with the remaining issues left for future discussions.
Even though doing this requires a difficult path, the Russians will want very strong and binding assurances regarding Ukrainian weapons, particularly long-range weapons like the USHIMARS and ATACMS and the British-French Stormshadow/SCALP EG.
Other than being subjected to pressure to keep the war in Ukraine going, it is unclear what Vance and Kellogg will bring home from Munich. Trump will have to work with the Russians to see if there is a way forward while Trump will have to rely on his NATO partners to watch him closely.
Stephen Bryen is a former US deputy undersecretary of defense for policy and a special correspondent for Asia Times. This article, which originally appeared on his Substack newsletter Weapons and Strategy, is republished with permission.