Startups (Page 3)

The Bank of Korea is often at the center of global financial discussion.

Despite Governor Rhee Chang-yong’s leadership, the team’s focus is on the US and Chinese economies’ respected markets and their respective markets, which are the two biggest imponderables for 2025.

Of program, Donald Trump’s returning to the White House ensures these two giants may meet, maybe creating a second unknown: a massive trade conflict the likes of which the globe has never seen before.

Rhee’s BOK is already on the spot thanks to local factors in Beijing and Washington, but both are already doing so. The chances of a US Federal Reserve rate cut at its policy meeting on November 28 are fluctuating, and they are decreasing day by day.

In any case, signs that US jobs growth may be slowing and that China’s home issue is continuing to cause depreciation support the case for a Fed easing walk.

Asian prices, meanwhile, is holding well below the BOK’s 2 % destination. According to the Korea Development Institute, a state-run think tank, “it appears that easing of monetary legislation through interest rate increases has been successful in reducing high prices since 2022.”

Yet Rhee’s selection is complicated by developments at home, especially near-record home loan amounts.

According to Ashok Bhundia, an analyst at the Institute of International Finance,” the central bank is in a difficult position where domestic demand is slower and inflation is below goal.” However, the decision is influenced by concerns about economic balance caused by high household leverage.

Bhundia’s bottom line is that “delaying the second level reduce will allow more time for evaluating the approaching US administration’s policy agenda and its possible impact on global trade, which had affect&nbsp, Korea’s growth and inflation outlook for 2025”.

As Trump 2.0 launches a 60 or more taxes on China, that plan may have a significant impact. And as Trump’s group slaps 20 % cover, across-the-board taxes on all products worldwide.

Trump’s government picks — including Robert&nbsp, Lighthizer, past and possible future business king — are mulling moves to degrade the dollar. This could be accomplished unilaterally by using aggressive currency market intervention or another” Plaza Accord” maneuver.

The dollar-yen pact that was used in this case was referenced in 1985. The top industrialized nations worked together to create it at Trump’s former hotel, the Plaza Hotel. Trump also wants to reduce the Federal Reserve’s independence, giving his White House influence over interest rate decisions. &nbsp,

Trump claimed in August that the Federal Reserve had “kind of gotten it wrong” in a number of ways. He continued,” I believe the president should have at least had a say, yeah. I feel that strongly. I think that, in my case, I made a lot of money. I was very successful. And I believe I have a better sense of instinct than those who would frequently serve as the chairman of the Federal Reserve.

More than a Group of Seven central bank, this is more typical of China.

Trump has previously mentioned avoiding paying the government’s debt. In 2016, while running for president the first time, Trump said this about US government debt:” I would borrow, knowing that if the economy crashed, you could make a deal. And if the economy was good, it was good. So therefore, you ca n’t lose”.

Remember that Trump filed for bankruptcy six times as a businessman. In light of trade tensions, the Trump 1.0 White House considered robbing Beijing of its debt. It is obvious why a financial earthquake of historical magnitude could result from the US national debt being twice the size of the Chinese GDP.

China, meantime, is juggling dueling crises in property, local government finances, high youth unemployment, rising in-person protests and weak retail sales. With all of this, Beijing now has a mix of both fiscal and monetary stimulus.

It’s a concern, though, that” China’s response to deflationary challenges remains cautious”, says Jonathan Garner, an equity strategist at Morgan Stanley. Even before Trump arrives, this will restore enormous trade conflicts.

How Rhee balances Korea’s current challenges with what’s to come in 2025 — whatever that might be — is an open question. And one that goes beyond the BOK headquarters ‘ decisions in Seoul.

Korea’s sizable, open and trade-reliant economy often serves as a weathervane for global inflection points. That’s why Korea’s” sandwiched” reality these days is raising more than a few red flags.

This predicament was arguably coined in 2007 by then-Samsung Group head Lee Kun-hee. At the time, Lee described Asia’s fourth-biggest economy as sandwiched between wealthy Japan and low-cost China.

Now, though, Korea is caught in the middle of something of a quadruple-decker sandwich. It’s squeezed between a Japan that’s raising rates, a China that’s slowing and an imminent” Trump trade” causing extreme dollar volatility.

Economists who are considering policy options concur that a case could be made for the BOK to ease next week but also that it should wait until January.

Recent Korean data, according to Capital Economics economist Shivaan Tandon, “was somewhat encouraging because it suggested that the worst is probably over for domestic demand.”

Others are less sanguine. Dave Chia, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, thinks soft third-quarter GDP results are” concerning and could lead to South Korea missing the BOK’s 2024 GDP growth target of 2.4 %”.

Seoul, though, must accelerate moves to batten down the hatches as the Trump vs Xi brawl begins. Korea Inc. will suffer significant collateral damage, despite China’s immediate immediate target.

A blanket global US tariff of 20 % would be disastrous for Korea, which generates 40 % of gross domestic product ( GDP ) via exports. Then there’s how the Trump revenge tour might imperil key Korean industries, not least autos.

Trump has threatened 100 % taxes on all Mexican-made vehicles. If Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol does n’t agree to big trade concessions, Trump might widen those levies to include Korean vehicles. Japanese autos, too.

In an effort to maintain the peace, Korea Inc. might try to placate Trump in the same way Japan did in 2017.

” If tariffs get raised, the first alternative firms can consider will be raising direct investment and on-site production”, Korean Trade Minister Cheong In-kyo tells Reuters. ” There are ongoing investments already, and there is a possibility that investment could accelerate, followed by an increase in US-bound exports by small and medium-sized parts manufacturers”.

Cheong emphasized that Seoul would increase efforts to foster trade diplomacy. ” We can only respond to the new administration’s policy”, Cheong noted. ” Nevertheless, we will make efforts for trade to remain smooth, with not only the United States but also China”.

In 2023, Korea’s trade surplus with Washington hit a record$ 44.4 billion, Seoul’s biggest imbalance anywhere. That’s unlikely to go unnoticed in Trump World.

With his approval rating&nbsp, around 20 % &nbsp, at the halfway point of his five-year term, it’s not clear how much latitude Yoon has to cave in to Trump’s demands for trade concessions.

And what if, as many believe, Trump’s real goal with tariffs is to force China into a “grand bargain” trade deal? On the one hand, if Korea can avoid the financial havoc that will come with a new trade war, that could be good for the country. A US-China deal might, on the other hand, leave Korea with no one to watch out for.

Politically, being left out of a US-China deal could be just as bad for Yoon’s support rate as the economic hit from Trump’s tariffs.

Then there are the ways China might retaliate, including driving the yuan lower. Apple, Walmart, and other important US companies could always be subject to a manufacturing tax from Xi.

Beijing could also dump&nbsp, large blocks &nbsp, of its$ 770 billion of US Treasury securities. Yes, China would be reborn as a result of the US debt yield surge. However, Xi might speculate that as Washington’s borrowing costs soar as the dollar falls, the US would lose more.

Korea— and the Kospi stock index — would be in the crossfire more than most export-driven economies. These dangers and other factors contribute to Rhee’s BOK staff’s potential dread of 2025. Yoon’s administration, too, as its lack of urgency in implementing vital reforms comes back to haunt it.

Unfortunately, Yoon is but the latest Korean leader to win power pledging a supply-side Big Bang only to fall short. &nbsp,

Over the last 15-plus years, Korean government after government got sidetracked by political squabbling and short-term concerns. Leader after leader turned to the BOK to repair economic flaws rather than rebalancing growth engines to increase competition and productivity.

If only Yoon’s predecessor Moon Jae-in had put some notable wins on the scoreboard to rein in the family-owned conglomerates, or chaebols, towering over the economy. Moon talked a great game of pivoting toward” trickle-up economics”, but achieved little.

The same went for Park Geun-hye, president from 2013 to 2017. Korea’s first female leader promised to build a more” creative economy” and reduce the economic power of chaebols.

She made a promise to make room for startups to start generating their own economic energy instead of going the way of the top. Park, too, achieved little.

Before her, Lee Myung-bak, president from 2008 to 2013, had his own bold plan to generate 7 % growth and make Korea one of the&nbsp, seven largest economies&nbsp, via disruptive reforms. It was all talk.

Korea ca n’t bring bold policies to level playing fields, boost productivity, empower women, and inspire young entrepreneurs to take bold risks in the last 15 years.

Despite all the excitement surrounding Korea’s startup scene, the chaebol-heavy business climate provides only limited economic support for businesses to grow.

Korea is currently dealing with an issue with its economy’s speed at the same time. China, for all its troubles, has been speeding up Asia’s economic clock — and increasingly so.

China continues to invest big in dominating the future of semiconductors, electric vehicles, aerospace, renewable energy, biotechnology, artificial intelligence, robotics and green infrastructure. &nbsp,

As China’s production capabilities increase, Korea is having a harder and harder time keeping pace with the region’s top export power and revamping its policy mix accordingly.

It’s not saying or articulating a precise plan for the moment if the Yoon administration understands this challenge.

Why Japan Inc. has such a difficult time adapting to rapidly changing global dynamics is if we overlook the fact that things are moving more quickly outside of its walls. Korea must do a better&nbsp, job keeping an eye on the time.

Seoul wo n’t waste a second when Trump and China are scheduled to invade Asia in two months.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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