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Kevin McCarthy’s removal from office as Speaker of the US House of Representatives next year, along with 100 congressional Republicans’ vote to withdraw US$ 300 million in military aid to Ukraine, was self-destructive.
If not reversed, it may prevent the US from improving its capacity to produce more arms more quickly, which is desperately needed.
National leaders who hesitate to support Ukraine ignore how increased provide demands of a big war revitalize the US defense business base, ignoring the enormous global consequences of leaving Ukraine behind. & nbsp,
The US needs a strong defense industry and institutions that you choose innovations and maintain high-intensity warfare more and more as great-power competition intensifies. However, despite three decades of underdevelopment, the US defense base is unprepared to handle growing challenges, and the Pentagon’s governmental structures frequently lack the modernization needed to succeed on a modern battlefield. & nbsp,
The important shake-up of protection institutions is provided by continued US military aid for Ukraine. Continued US assistance for Ukraine offers a payout that positions the US for potential war by reviving America’s aging security center and forcing the Pentagon to reconsider its stifled methods of purchasing essential gear.
The most widely used ability in the US ordnance arsenal, 155mm, was merely produced by the United States on a monthly basis prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Ukrainian counteroffensive uses up to 6, 000 shells per day( roughly 183, 000 products per month) to place this number in perspective.
According to the Ukrainian army, the army must be defeated every day with 10,000 rounds. At the height of its bombardments in 2023, Russia fired its gun at an astounding level of 60 000 shells per day( 830 000 products per month ). & nbsp,
The US has doubled its production to 24, 000 155mm shells per quarter as of August to meet the larger-than-anticipated Russian demand for gun weapons. By the fall of 2025, the Pentagon hopes to achieve its goal of 1 million sessions per yr( roughly 83, 000 products per month ).
Even after the war in Ukraine is over, this increased power will remain. About$ 2 billion was spent by the US Army to increase the output of ordnance weapons in the country. The US will be able to produce sufficient weapons to withstand future protracted, high-intensity wars fought by itself or its partners thanks to the construction of new manufacturing lines and modernization of existing ones in facilities like Pennsylvania’s Scranton Army Munitions Plant.
Beyond the 155mm artillery, Lockheed Martin has invested in doubling the production of High Mobility Artillerry Rocket Systems( HIMARS ) in its factory in Camden, Arkansas, from 48 to 90 units annually as a result of the conflict in Ukraine. In order to increase the production of munitions for Ukraine, the flower plans to hire 20 % more workers over the next few years.
Javelin man-portable systems, another home of weapons essential for Ukraine’s defence, are also produced by the Camden factory. Javelin anti-tank missiles, developed in collaboration by Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, have assisted Ukrainians in destroying Russian armoured columns, delaying Russia’s first attack on Kiev.
The two organizations intend to increase output of Javelin missiles from 2, 100 to 4, 000 products annually in response to numerous Pentagon-related orders from Ukraine. Raytheon restarted the production of Stingers, another man-portable method frequently used by the Ukrainian army to shoot down Russian aviation, in response to a further$ 340 million Pentagon order.
Some of these changes may get reversed or slowed down if the US stops providing military aid to Ukraine. Sales and production of US gun munitions, HIMARS, man-portable devices, and other weapons are still largely driven by the Russian military’s great demand.
This has traditionally been something that is supper or hunger, according to Bill LaPlante, the Pentagon’s learning captain, who was quoted in an article from last year in Inside Defense. When the crisis is over, we simply return to little generation after going into panic mode and increasing creation.
The conflict in Ukraine serves as a test case for new US weaponry, allowing the US government to see their first-ever functionality in an extensive, high-intensity conflict.
For the first time in Ukraine, US robots like the Altius 600M from Anduril Industries, the Switchblade from AeroVironment, and the Phoenix Ghost from Aevex Aerospace were used extensively. Palmer Luckey, the founder of Anduril, emphasized how quickly people pick up on lessons from the battle, saying,” As the Russians change their tactics and their techniques, we’re able to push program changes to our systems that change the features.”
Wahid Nawabi, the CEO of AeroVironment, also referred to the conflict in Ukraine as an” tone point.” The company has now developed an improved version of Switchblades using lessons learned from using its robots in Ukraine.
In addition, US businesses have been able to create completely new systems for the Ukrainian military, such as Boeing’s Ground-Lunched Small Diameter Bomb( GLSDB ), and use them immediately after production, hastening the process of military learning and adaptation.
The war in Ukraine has been particularly quickly used by US defence companies to create and test new systems. The war in Ukraine has prompted significant advancements in defense space, including helicopter swarms and professional satellites as well as anti-drone jamming and real-time AI targeting.
The war in Ukraine allows US military managers to improve their understanding of how older devices, such as HIMARS and Bradleys, perform in a large-scale present battle against an attack of their own. This is in contrast to newer methods.
The next time a sizable regular force was fought with US weapons was during the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Warfare has changed over the past 20 years with the advent of new technologies and beliefs. With the war in Ukraine, General Mark Milley, a previous chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, stated that” we are witnessing the way wars may be fought, and won, for years to come.”
Security institutions must keep up with the battlefield’s increasing mobility and complexity as a result of modern technologies. Since the Vietnam War, the US had not increased its military creation to such an extent prior to Russia’s full-scale war in 2022. Both public and private methods had become dirty. The US’s institutions desperately need an upgrade if it is to succeed in a significant warfare against an equal rival.
This chance is provided by ongoing support for Ukraine and the participation of the US defense force. The Pentagon has already figured out how to apply Covid-era mass production techniques to the military sector over the past year and a half of the conflict, expediting contracts to restock Stingers and Javelins and supply Ukraine with cutting-edge National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems ( NASAMS ).
The government is able to speed up the replenishment of its dwindling backlog of weapons for Patriot weather protection rockets, HIMARS, and other systems thanks to new procurement authorities, such as multi-year contracts. In order to grow, develop, and procure arms with the utmost intensity, the Pentagon is also learning how to form business partnerships with international countries.
By stress-testing the defense business base, US support for Ukraine reveals potential bottlenecks producers may encounter if the US were to provide a large-scale war, from challenges in luring high-skilled labor to the lack of middle inputs.
The war in Ukraine, according to legislative leaders on both sides of the hall, demonstrated that the US lacked sufficient surge capacity for a big war, prompting Congress to provide funding for the restoration of upscaling ability.
A stronger sense of urgency brought on by the need to help Ukraine likewise aids the Pentagon in removing obstacles from its business alliances. The US European Command, the command structure in charge of US military operations in Europe, has quickly increased its use of for-profit satellite pictures to supply intellect to Ukraine.
According to Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall, the Defense Department is currently thinking about how to better integrate industrial systems outside of Ukraine as a result of the conflict.
The convergence of US broader knowledge sharing with Ukrainians and the integration of commercial and military intellect is a demonstration of the skills necessary for aiding partner non-allied governments in future wars.
In the event of a Taiwanese emergency, lessons from the Russian experience, such as improved intelligence sharing regulations, will be crucial. Due to the fact that neither the Japanese nor the Ukrainians are recognized as US alliance nations, the US would encounter the same challenges when sharing intelligence with them. & nbsp,
A sense of necessity and an incentive for reforms may wane if it weren’t for the US’s ongoing support for Ukraine. Authorities bureaucracies, which are designed to be weighty, typically resist significant changes unless they are absolutely necessary. Prior to the war in Ukraine, the Pentagon did not integrate with any personal dish intelligence companies, and it took longer to form business alliances with allies.
Prior to the war, Congress steadfastly refused to allow multi-year weapons procurement and reluctantly gave this power last December, but only for a small number of agreements. Even though administrative changes are now taking place, it is not guaranteed that they will continue in the absence of strong external stimuli.
Statistics however matter, as the conflict in Ukraine demonstrates. By halting Russia’s aggression and enhancing its capacity to produce weapons quickly and efficiently, the US strengthens its own protection. As a result, the US will have an advantage over its adversaries, many of whom have not participated in significant conflicts in years. Does Congress really want this, & nbsp?
SINGAPORE: Starting on Thursday, October 5, Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong may travel to Arizona, New York, and Washington, DC, for an 11-day working excursion to the US.
Since he was appointed Deputy Prime Minister, Mr. Wong has not made a working trip to the United States. According to a press release from the PMO, the visit will strengthen the” strong and multi-faceted relationship” between the two nations.
Mr. Wong may travel to Arizona to see Peace Carvin II, the longest-serving international detachment of the Republic of Singapore Air Force. At Luke Air Force Base, there is an F-16 warrior training withdrawal.
Mr. Wong, the Finance Minister, may visit New York City to enter a GIC Investment Forum and introduce the new Global Innovation Alliance node, which will be led by Enterprise Singapore. This aids in the growth of tech companies based in Singapore into New York and the larger US marketplace.
Global Innovation Alliance networks are also located by Enterprise Singapore in cities like San Francisco, London, Berlin, Seoul, and Bangkok.
In Washington, DC, Mr. Wong may meet with Cabinet secretaries and top Biden Administration officials to discuss advancing bilateral cooperation in new, emerging fields. At the first US-Singapore speech on Critical and Emerging Technologies, he may make the opening notes.
On October 13, as part of its ASEAN Leadership Forum, the Center for Strategic and International Studies ( CSIS ) will host Mr. Wong for a dialogue session. On the CSIS webpage, the program may be livestreamed.
In his capacity as Finance Minister, Mr. Wong & nbsp traveled to the US in April 2022 and attended meetings of the G20 and World Bank-IMF.
Mr. Wong may be accompanied on this year’s journey by Foreign Affairs Minister Vivian Balakrishnan, Minister for Communications and Information Josephine Teo, and Minister of State for Culture, Community and Youth, Trade and Industry Alvin Tan.
Additionally, representatives from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Finance, and the Prime Minister’s Office did visit the US.
The second-most impressive nation out of 36 upper-middle-income nations, after ChinaAdvancements in the categories of” Institutions” and” Human Captial and Research” ( nbsp ),In this year’s Global Innovation Index ( GII ) 2023, Malaysia has maintained its 36th place among 132 nations. According to a report released by the World Intellectual…Continue Reading
Acxyn, an IP tokenization platform, received a US$160k grant from MDEC
Position Malaysia as global gaming hub, attracting foreign IPs & studios
Malaysia Digital Economy Corporation (MDEC) and Acxyn, a pioneering web3 company, have announced a collaboration in an effort to spearhead the growth and widespread adoption of creative technologies in Malaysia. This…Continue Reading
Financial bookmarks can be very illuminating in assessing a market’s readiness for global primetime. Such is the case with JPMorgan Chase & Co adding Indian debt to its emerging market indices.
The Wall Street icon plans to do just that in June 2024, perhaps drawing US$40 billion into South Asia’s biggest economy – and at a moment when investors are buzzing that India is a ready alternative to a slowing China.
Perhaps most interesting, though, is that India will enter JPMorgan’s benchmark just days after Prime Minister Narendra Modi reaches his 10-year mark in power. On May 26, 2014, Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party returned to power with a bold economic reform agenda.
The question, nearly a decade on, is whether the Modi era has whipped India into shape as a more innovative, productive and prosperous investment destination. And it’s here where investors rushing India’s way may be more disappointed than fulfilled.
In the Modi era, India is really a tale of two economies. The macroeconomy is going gangbusters with its China-beating growth rate and stampede of tech “unicorn” startups juicing the stock market. At the micro level, though, India is more cautionary tale than emerging-market exemplar.
At the BRICS summit in New Delhi earlier this month, Modi declared that “soon, India will become a US$5 trillion economy.” That would make India’s economy bigger than Japan’s.
And clearly, India is winning friends in high places. As JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon views it, the surge in optimism on India is warranted.
Speaking at a forum in London this week, Dimon said: “Look at this conference. I remember eight years ago or nine years ago we started with 50 or 75 clients. Now it’s 700 investors around the world, 100 companies presenting. I think the optimism of India is actually completely justified.”
Morgan Stanley strategist Min Dai notes that its inclusion in indices like JPMorgan’s “could be a push factor to prompt foreign inflows into India and foreign investors are likely to be more active in the Indian fixed-income market.” This is, he says, a “milestone event.”
Economist Robert Carnell at ING Bank says “It remains to be seen whether the JPMorgan decision will spur others, such as the FTSE Russell to follow suit. Either way, as well as supporting the Indian rupee, the decision should also help to reduce government bond spreads over US Treasuries, and also pass through into lower corporate bond rates.”
Not surprisingly, Modi is working overtime to capitalize on this India-rising optimism by seeking to lure multinational companies disillusioned with China. The recent move by Beijing to order employees at some state-linked firms to cease using Apple’s iPhones has been a gift to Modi’s commerce ministry.
India, meanwhile, grew a China-topping 6.1% in the three months ended March year on year. Asia’s third-biggest economy grew an even more impressive 7.2% for the fiscal year through March as its post-pandemic recovery drove consumption.
As China becomes more isolated amid “de-risking” and “decoupling” calls, and Washington and its allies in Asia seek a new emerging-market growth champion, Modi’s $3.4 trillion economy is keen to step up.
This year, the International Monetary Fund sees India contributing more than 15% of global growth. While still less than half of China’s 35%, India’s global clout is clearly growing.
As Modi was happy to highlight at the BRICS — Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa — summit, India finds itself in something of a geopolitical sweet spot just as Global South nations come into their own. This gives Modi a unique degree of leverage to play China’s interests against America’s.
This, just as India surpasses China to become the most populous nation, a reminder that Modi’s demographics are healthier than Xi’s. China’s Communist Party is grappling with record youth unemployment, reported as high as 21% until authorities banned future readouts on the figure.
But India’s outlook also depends on Team Modi making the most of India’s so-called “demographic dividend.” If New Delhi doesn’t create enough good-paying jobs, it will face a demographic nightmare rather than daydream.
It’s here where India’s micro policies lag the heady exuberance at the macro level. Look no further than the lack of confidence among currency traders selling the rupee. India’s inflation troubles and the government’s shaky fiscal position have rupee trends defying economists’ optimism.
“Foreign investors have poured $16 billion into equities this year, viewing India as a haven amid rising US rates and economic stresses in China,” notes analyst Udith Sikand at Gavekal Research.
“They have been well rewarded, with stock markets hitting record highs. But the prospect of a weaker rupee, in addition to the outlook for elevated global interest rates, makes the risk-reward proposition on Indian equities less favorable in coming months,” Sikand says.
True, Sikand adds, the inclusion of Indian government debt in JPMorgan’s benchmark index “should prove a watershed event, turbocharged by investors’ need to find alternatives to China.” He adds that India’s “bond market is both deep enough to absorb much larger flows and remains largely untapped.”
Yet “the flip side of greater foreign participation in domestic bond markets is that policymakers will have less room to maneuver, particularly as the twin deficits widen,” Sikand says.
“Still, as long as the Modi government does not give in to its populist instincts in the run-up to elections next year, bond yields are likely to fall as investors look to front-run the expected flood of passive inflows.”
It’s a big “if,” though. Another worry: India’s infrastructure and competitiveness in manufacturing lag China’s by magnitudes that are impossible to dismiss.
Modi’s ambitious “Make in India” push has only increased the flow of Chinese imports, leading to a marked deterioration in New Delhi’s trade balance. Along with rubbing currency traders the wrong way, this dynamic complicates hopes that multinationals might shift supply chains India’s way.
Other warning signs include rising inequality, partly thanks to Covid-19 fallout and inflation running at 15-year highs. Kunal Kundu at Societe Generale speaks for many economists in cautioning that “consumer fatigue” could soon cause giant headwinds.
Modi’s decade in power hasn’t sufficiently addressed many of the challenges he pledged to tackle in 2014. They include poor infrastructure, inequality, chronic youth unemployment, high levels of private debt, a deterioration in balance of payments dynamics and underwhelming household demand.
This has opposition parties ready to pounce. At least two dozen minority parties are joining forces to sideline Modinomics in favor of a more inclusive model. Along with inflation, opposition forces are drawing attention to worsening religious violence and assaults on press freedom.
Here, it’s worth considering another worrisome bookend: the number 85. This is India’s current ranking in Transparency International’s corruption perceptions index.
It’s the exact same ranking India achieved in 2014 — and fully 20 rungs behind 65th-ranked China. So, while Modi’s tenure hasn’t unleashed a bull market in graft, it hasn’t been a golden era for good governance either.
That helps explain why nearly a decade after Modi took national power S&P Global still rates India just one notch above junk at BBB.
Modi’s appeal, of course, derived from the folk-hero reputation he cultivated during his 13-year stint running the western state of Gujarat. From 2001 to 2014, Modi’s local government routinely generated faster gross domestic product (GDP) rates than the national average.
Gujarat often also boasted greater productivity and innovation, less bureaucracy, better infrastructure and lower levels of corruption. A major reason why voters returned the BJP to power in 2014 was in the hope that Modi would replicate the “Gujarat model” nationwide.
Modi’s team did put some early wins on the scoreboard. It opened some key sectors to increased overseas investment, including aviation and defense. It implemented a national goods-and-services tax. It projected a sense of confidence as a startup boom put India in headlines for all the right reasons.
Yet Modi has often read more from the playbook of Shinzo Abe than Margaret Thatcher or Ronald Reagan.
In 2012, Japanese Prime Minister Abe took power pledging epochal reforms, channeling the supply-side revolutions that Thatcher unleashed on the UK and Reagan on the US.
Abe did manage to improve corporate governance. That, over time, drove the Nikkei Stock Average to 30-year highs. Mostly, though, Abe relied on hyper-aggressive Bank of Japan easing to revive growth. This trickle-down economics scheme failed to boost wages or rekindle innovation.
The parallels between Abenomics and Modinomics are clear enough. In certain ways, though, the Modi era in India has been far more damaging than Abe’s 1980s-influenced economic exploits.
Take India’s press freedom score, which has plunged precipitously. In 2014, its 140th ranking out of 180 nations on Reporters Without Borders’ tables was poor enough. Today India ranks 161st, trailing Cambodia by 14 rungs and 11 behind Pakistan.
If Team Modi were serious about reducing opacity and leveling playing fields, it would embrace a free-wheeling press as an ally in raising India’s competitive game. The Modi era has dragged India in the other direction.
Making this dynamic all the more awkward: this year’s scandal involving the Adani Group, led by billionaire Gautam Adani, whose alleged close ties to Modi date back to their Gujarat days.
Short seller Hindenburg Research accused the conglomerate of “brazen stock manipulation and accounting fraud,” spotlighting cracks in India’s financial sector.
In February, billionaire George Soros exacerbated the storm by saying that the Adani crisis “will significantly weaken” Modi’s “stranglehold” on New Delhi politics. In Soros’ telling, Modi and Adani are “close allies” with “intertwined” fates.
BJP officials pushed back, arguing that Soros has “now declared his ill intentions to intervene in the democratic processes” in India.
Weak corporate governance is raising concerns about the health of India’s business environment. It also collides with Modi-era efforts to spotlight India’s giant industrial conglomerates, many of which might not be ready for global primetime.
Another bookmark worth noting: In the latest financial year, foreign direct investment inflows fell for the first time in a decade. The 16% drop to $71 billion would seem at odds with a booming economy winning new converts around the globe as the new China.
It speaks to the need for Modi’s team to accelerate efforts to increase domestic and international competition, build trust in New Delhi’s regulatory institutions, scrap policies that support national champions and curb protectionist impulses.
If his “Make in India” strategy is to gain traction, Modi must rethink tariffs on foreign components. Though intended to advantage domestic supply chains, the protectionist policy dents India’s argument that it’s open for business.
Modi’s government must also invest more in human capital. One in five of India’s 1.4 billion people is under 25. Increased funding must go toward improving financial literacy, education and training. Modi’s team must delve into the economic effects of societal norms.
In a March report, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development argued that “in South Asia hundreds of millions of people – not just in India – are affected by caste-discrimination. Caste systems divide people into unequal and hierarchical social groups. Those at the bottom of hierarchy are considered lesser human beings. In the business and work-sphere caste-discrimination affects workers.”
To be sure, Modi has racked up some notable victories, notes analyst Alexis Serfaty at the Eurasia Group consultancy. He says that “India’s policy ecosystem seems to have finally found the right mix to enable rapid manufacturing growth.” Powered by broader geopolitical trends” and Modi government policies, “electronics manufacturing has grown 275% over the past eight years.”
But “while the overarching policy environment at both the central and state levels is realigning toward enabling export-led manufacturing growth, industry executives are still concerned about long-term policy stability, given India’s checkered history,” Serfaty says.
“The Modi government has assured investors that it has the political capital, and the policy will stay the course. Still, realigning bureaucratic behavior and state-level political views to support long-term growth will pose a big challenge in the medium term,” he adds.
And for global investors about to pour $40 billion into Indian debt, a reminder that Modinomics hasn’t transformed the economy as much as hoped and as much as needed to be the new China.
Follow William Pesek on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @William Pesek
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Malaysia’s Ministry of Communications and Digital (KKD) through Malaysia Digital Economy Corporation (MDEC), today launched the…Continue Reading
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These late stage companies have gone beyond the…Continue Reading