Indonesian manufacturers eye new foreign markets as US tariffs squeeze exports

RECIPING UP NEW MARKETS

Exports worth US$ 4.6 billion last year were a significant source of income for Indonesian cotton manufacturers, which is a significant source of income for them.

However, the Indonesian Textile Association warned that after the US announced steep taxes to tackle trade imbalances, require could drop by as much as 30 %. &nbsp,

The sector is now desperately looking for new areas.

” Southeast Asia and its surrounding areas have extremely large market potential,” according to Danang Girindrawardana, the agency’s executive producer. &nbsp,

” We haven’t tapped into them effectively because Indonesia has grown weary of or be obstinate by the world’s existing businesses. We have fallen for neighboring nations, which may be involved in the import-export operation of textile and garment goods, as a result.

In light of the uncertainty surrounding the world economy, Indonesia is developing a White Paper to assist regional manufacturers in their collaboration. &nbsp,

The nation is in the lead of the ASEAN ( Association of Southeast Asian Nations ) Federation of Textile Industries, which stands for the objectives of Southeast Asia’s textile and clothing companies.

Trump’s taxes have likewise rekindled calls for Southeast Asia to boost domestic trade to lessen political shocks.

Non-tariff obstacles are on the rise and present new challenges for local integration, according to observers, despite nearly all intra-bloc tariffs having been lifted. &nbsp,

According to International Economic Association secretary-general Lili Yan Ing,” some non-tariff measures can also serve as barriers, particularly when it comes to the procedures ( and ) obtaining the licensing.” &nbsp,

” That’s things that ASEAN and I can work together on in terms of simplifying methods, licensing, and how to get specific credentials to enhance intra-ASEAN trade.”

Airlangga Hartarto, Indonesia’s Coordinating Minister of Economic Affairs, led a group to Washington in April to demand better trade conditions.

In order to promote new market access and promote trade, Jakarta is likewise accelerating international cooperation, such as the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement between the Indonesia and the European Union. &nbsp,

The free trade agreement agreements are expected to wrap up this season, having begun in 2016.

Companies are urging stronger shelter for labor-intensive companies, which have long experienced an influx of low-cost imports from China, while the state works to open up new markets.

Businesses told CNA that the condition is still uncertain despite the fact that conflicts in the US-China trade conflict may have eased a little.

Growing concerns are that Taiwanese producers might divert extra supply to Indonesia, causing local markets to flood and put even more pressure on domestic manufacturers.

” We are currently living in a time when nothing is certain. However, I’m convinced that demand will increase once more, which likewise opens up a window for businesses that can supply the goods required,” Leonardi said.

” I’m also enthusiastic because this kind of situation won’t last forever,” I said.

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Commentary: Why political families still dominate in Southeast Asia

DILEMMA DEMOCRACY

The development of congenital democracy, as critics refer to it, poses a fundamental challenge to democratic ideals. &nbsp,

Dynasties can job stability, but their dominance could lead to inequality and competition stifling. Younger, less educated leaders struggle to get money or media attention, perpetuating a sealed system. &nbsp,

At least two political dynasties were attempting to retake control of the May 2025 votes, according to the Philippines Center for Investigative Journalism. With such a majority, policymaking runs the risk of turning into a battle for powerful individuals rather than a website for addressing broader public concerns. &nbsp,

Southeast Asia is not a distinct country. Inheritance politicians flourishes in both emerging and established governments all over the world. &nbsp,

Names like the Kennedys, Bushes, and Story have shaped American politicians for decades, and Le Pens and Trudeaus in Canada and France both demonstrate how parental legacy echoes permeate Western governments. The Nehru-Gandhi kingdom has ruled Congress Party elections in India for generations. &nbsp,

The trend has received criticism for sustaining power imbalances internationally. Inheritance politics undermine the meritocracy because governing is less about ensuring royal control and more about maintaining social welfare. &nbsp,

As with the West, voters in Southeast Asia alternate between resentment toward wealthy dominance and departure. The crucial difference is in the institution’s resilience, where stronger institutions in established democracies frequently offset some, if not most, of royal rule’s negative effects.

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‘Risk being sidelined’: US-China trade truce raises stakes for ASEAN members seeking lower Trump tariffs

According to Joanne Lin, senior fellow and co-coordinator of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ( ASEAN ) Studies Centre at Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, Beijing’s relative attractiveness as an investment and manufacturing alternative to China may be “diminished” if it receives a lower US tariff rate after August 12 than Southeast Asian countries.

” This is especially worrying for nations like Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia, which have benefited from Chinese companies shifting their output during the height of the US-China business tensions,” she said.

A lower price routine for China may lessen the motivation for these relocations and stifle ASEAN’s influx of foreign direct investment tied to supply chain diversification.

Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia are alleged to be members of US President Donald Trump’s so-called” Dirty 15″ list of nations that allegedly impose significant taxes and other non-tariff restrictions on US products. These countries make up the majority of US buying level.

The group is also thought to be included in a list of around 20 nations, according to a report from Bloomberg on May 10 that Southeast Asian nations are the subjects of ongoing US negotiations.

On May 9, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told CNBC that Washington is “having productive discussions with Vietnam and others, and they understand what we’re trying to solve.”

According to Lin,” The outcomes of diplomatic negotiations between US and ASEAN countries will be crucial to determine whether Southeast Asian nations can maintain their competitive advantage or risk losing out in a reformed global trade landscape.”

THAILAND IS” PASSIVE,” INDONESIA IS” LEFT BEHIND”, MALAYSIA IS YET TO COMMIT.

Indonesia’s economy is susceptible to the potential implications of a trade war and is now negotiating a possible 32 % US tax rate, which could become a reality.

By switching to US manufacturers for items like maize, soybeans, liquefied petroleum gas ( LPG) and crude, Jakarta has proposed to boost its quarterly imports from the US by up to US$ 19 billion.

A jarring non-tariff challenge identified by the US has been addressed by the country’s new rules, which allow the government to purchase products with lower locally-produced content, according to Reuters ‘ report on May 6.

Southeast Asia as a whole may incur if Beijing later receives a significantly lower tax rate than ASEAN countries, according to Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara, director of the Center for Economic and Law Studies in Indonesia, despite the temporary agreement between the US and China’s announcement, which will benefit Indonesia’s factories, which are rushing to export goods to China.

” There will be numerous opportunities coming from China that may return to China.” South Asian companies will be relocating to China once more, he told CNA.

” Funding from the US and Europe will be coming to China. Therefore, I believe that each Asian member country’s push for further negotiations with the US even indicates bad things.

Bhima believes that China, the largest market in Southeast Asia, has been “left behind” in their trade negotiations, and that the latter has managed to secure a momentary but significant discount on their own price rates.

He cited difficulties that come with the agreements Jakarta has proposed, saying,” I think China made actually great progress compared to Indonesia, of which the negotiation process is still in improvement.”

” If Indonesia purchases more Electric or exports more oil from the US, there will be a significant burden on the state budget, as well as the fiscal room,” he said.

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Asia without America, part 2: Japan’s Tang renaissance – Asia Times

Tokyo woman, Tokyo woman
You’ve got the techniques to rule the world
That adorable inscrutability
Tokyo woman, you’re a secret

basic ace

The democratic governments of Northeast Asia – Japan, South Korea and Taiwan – have survived and also thrived in a nightmarish equilibrium where their death is centered on:

    an America in Asia but not in Asia ( see here ), and

  • a China gathering its power and biding its time.

There are costs associated with this position status, this endless present, not just those associated with proper danger and wealth but also those associated with national incoherence and stagnation.

While Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have avoided the British trash fires of violence, drugs and fat, they have not been able to dodge the relativism and cultural alienation of end-state socialism and liberal democracy. The great professor did include his back on the pitfalls awaiting the Last Guy at the End of History, even though this writer enjoys bash Francis Fukuyama.

Liberal democracy produced “men without trunks”, composed of need and cause but lacking thymos, brilliant at finding innovative ways to satisfy a host of trivial desires through the analysis of long-term self-interest. Without the next man’s desire to be acknowledged as superior to others, no excellence or accomplishment was possible. Articles with his pleasure and unable to feel any sense of shame for being unable to rise above those wishes, the next man ceased to be individual.

Reddit / Jordan Peterson

In liberal democratic Asia, men without chests are the product of political design more than they are naturally occurring Last Men at history’s end.

The Liberal Democratic Party ( LDP ), which has been in power almost exclusively since its founding in 1955, is what made Postwar Japan.

The dark but now open secret of the LDP is that it was founded by accused war criminals ( including Prime Minister Nobusuke Kishi ) and had received financial and intelligence support from the US Central Intelligence Agency ( CIA ) for decades.

After Mao’s communists won China’s civil war in 1949, the US “reversed course” in Japan while Germany went through a denazification program. Japan’s right-wing militarists, expecting to be purged and charged with war crimes, were instead rehabilitated to form a political bulwark against communist expansion.

Many were certainly right to condemn Cold War opportunism, but ultimately it meant that the Japanese nation was less than sovereign, never adequately confronted its former wartime past, and never had a real say in the US’s military occupation.

Japan became a bonsai nation – a well-tended miniature state denuded of thymos. Sanctions against Toshiba, the Plaza Accord, and “voluntary” export quotas quickly reminded the Japanese of their place when they dared to challenge the US in the auto and semiconductor industries and pretend to be bonsai.

Japan is sui generis – no economy has stagnated for so long after outperforming so spectacularly for even longer. That is the tragedy of a bonsai country: only men with chests can dream so big. And so, Japan– once the land of samurai warriors and hardened salarymen – has been reduced to a theme park filled with kawaii anime, Pokémon, Super Mario and schoolgirl manga in not-so-hidden corners.

Japan will have to find a new equilibrium in the Western Pacific in the event that America’s military is no longer able to sustain itself. Japan’s interminable bonsai present cannot be all that satisfying, hanging over the nation the way regret haunts a Murakami novel.

Without America, Japan will have to fight for its right to self-determination, leave its bonsai pot, and leave its creepy hentai, hikikomori, and tentacle porn to become men with chests once more.

Much of this will be very off-putting to many Japanese. It will be terrifying to leave behind the comfort of a long-established equilibrium for an unknown future. Much of Asia has unfinished business with Japan. Not just any unfinished business, but blood debt of the most raw, most passionate kind, remembered for generations if not already immortalized in legend.

Japan had little to fear from China for almost all of its history prior to World War II. The Yuan Dynasty’s Mongols twice attempted to invade the Japanese islands, but they were defeated by bad weather each time. ( England and France, in comparison, fought 41 wars against each other since the Dark Ages. ) &nbsp,

This time, however, is different. It can be a bit unsettling to see China have a military that is powerful enough to crush the US ( hypothetically, of course ) and suffers from deep historical grievances. Without the US military, much of Asia – from China to South Korea to Southeast Asia – will want to settle unfinished family business.

However, World War II a long time ago. A lot of water has passed under the bridge. Only a select few of the Japanese war veterans are still alive. Few living Asians have memories of Japanese atrocities. It’s difficult to imagine Asia demanding anything but” symbolic” atonement gestures from Japan.

But in the land of thymos, symbolic gestures, like teaching war atrocities in Japan’s schools or removing war criminals from the Yasukuni Shrine, are the most difficult to swallow.

On November 25, 1970, novelist Yukio Mishima led by four disciples into a military base in central Tokyo, tied up the commander, blocked the doors, donned a white headband, stepped onto the balcony, and delivered a rousing speech to soldiers gathered below.

Yukio Mishima at the headquarters of the Japan Self-Defense Forces ‘ Eastern Region on the day of his death. AAP photo

Meant to inspire a military coup d ‘état restoring direct rule to the emperor, the speech was met with puzzlement and jeers. Shortly after his speech, Mishima apologized to the imprisoned commandant and committed hara-kiri ( seppuku ), disemboweling himself like a samurai in the past before being killed by a disciple.

Mishima spent all his adult life trying not to be a “man without a chest”. Mishima avoided almost certain death in the hopeless final days of the war by being turned down by the army for a false tuberculosis diagnosis he may or may not have faked.

Cheated from or having cheated the glory of battlefield death, Mishima lifted weights obsessively, became a skilled kendo swordsman and lamented the emptiness of modern Japan. Before Francis Fukuyama, Mishima identified Japan’s men without chests:

Japan has lost its spiritual tradition, and instead has become infested with materialism. Japan is currently suffering from a green snake curse. The green snake is biting Japan’s chest. There is no way to get out of this impure condition.

In 1959-1960, protests erupted across Japan in opposition to the United States-Japan Security Treaty, Anpo in abbreviated Japanese. The agreement would formally grant the US the right to keep its military installations in Japan.

Opposition was immense from both the left and the right. Hunderts of thousands of protestors crowded the Tokyo-based parliament of Japan at its height. On June 15, 1960, students breached the building, resulting in violent clashes with police.

The first Anpo had egregious terms in it:

  • no specific end date or means of abrogation,
  • allowing the US military to use bases without consulting the Japanese government, in any way.
  • authorization for US troops to put down domestic protests.

Even with those terms being specifically removed, the 1959-1960 protests were opposed to Anpo. Despite the protests, the revised Anpo was ratified, but at the cost of Prime Minister Nobusuke Kishi’s resignation and the cancellation of a celebratory visit by US President Dwight Eisenhower.

Student protests erupted again in 1968-1969, but this time in much less egregious form. The revised Anpo provided abrogation opportunities every ten years. Today, opposition to Anpo is largely confined to residents of Okinawa who bear the brunt of the environmental impact ( noise pollution, chemical run-offs, live-fire exercises ) and service member criminality of the US occupation.

The Anpo protests led to the radicalization of Yukio Mishima. In 1961, Mishima wrote the short story” Patriotism”, which was made into a popular 1966 short film in which he directed and starred.

The movie reached its climax when Lieutenant Takeyama committed hara-kiri while struggling to reconcile his love for both his comrade-in-arms and the Emperor’s strings. In an interview, Mishima explained:

The sense of beauty was always associated with death in samurai tradition. For instance if you commit hara-kiri, the samurai was requested to make-up his face by powder or lipstick in order to keep his face beautiful after his suffering death.

I don’t want to revive the hara-kiri itself, but through the very strong vision of hara-kiri, I want to inspire and stimulate younger people spiritually and spiritually by bringing back some sense of honor or sense of very strong responsibility. That’s my purpose.

The suicide of Mishima at the height of his life was a political call to arms, a personal cri de coeur, an artistic expression of supreme beauty, and a reclamation of the glorified death that slipped through his fingers as a young man.

This all proved too much for 1970 Japan. When the country was beginning to become cosmopolitan, its most well-known writer, blatantly conjuring up unpleasant memories, makes a feudal spectacle of himself. The stunt was certainly beyond the pale in neighboring China and both Koreas, whose inhabitants likely had had enough samurai swords, bushido and hara-kiri for a few centuries.

Mishima was trying to restore Japan to its former glory. Unfortunately, World War II survivor guilt bound him to the most objectionable period in Japan’s history.

After Commodore Perry and his black ships opened Japan under threat of cannon fire, tumultuous changes swept through Japanese society, toppling sworn-for-forgotten institutions like the shogunate and the samurai.

The Meiji restoration overturned the isolationist Edo period, centralized government and industrialized the economy, but ultimately went down an unfortunate militarist path. The remainder is, shall we say, history. Any hint of Meiji-Shōwa militarist revival surely would set off ear-piercing alarm bells across all of Asia.

Fortunately, Commodore Perry’s black ships do not need to be the beginning of Japan’s renaissance. Modern Japan has almost certainly retained more of the Tang Dynasty than modern China.

In Chang’an, the capital of the Tang Dynasty, kimonos, geisha makeup, and Kyoto-style architecture would look more appropriate than anything else in Beijing, Shanghai, or even Shenzhen.

Emperor Taizong ( Li Shimin ), the second emperor of the Tang dynasty, ruled from 626 to 649. He saw himself as a servant of the people because he was a follower of Confucius and a rationalist. Japan learned much from the Tang Dynasty. National Palace Museum photo via Wikimedia Commons

The Tang Dynasty (605 to 907, minus a 690-705 interregnum ) had a profound impact on all facets of Japanese culture, from aesthetics to language to religion to government.

With 25, 000 foreigners living in its capital, The Tang was perhaps the most cosmopolitan of China’s dynasties. Japanese, Turks, Koreans, Vietnamese, Persians, Indians and Central Asians filled Chang’an’s restaurants, wine-houses and temples ( Buddhist, Nestorian Christian, Zoroastrian ). &nbsp,  

In this atmosphere, Tang China was in constant contact with Japan, receiving 19 official missions (kentoshi ) of up to 600 people who made the two-year round-trip journey ( some staying decades before returning ).

In their official capacity, Japanese ambassadors and scholars who had completed the Kyoto Institute established Chinese-style laws, bureaucracies, calendars, and measurements. In their unofficial capacity, they brought back Chinese fashion, literature, musical instruments and artistic taste. &nbsp,

Fears of China collecting on Japanese blood debt in draconian fashion are highly misplaced. The Communist Party of China can revert to its Confucianism without a barbaric military presence along China’s maritime border. While the political West swings left and right, political China swings between Legalism and Confucianism.

Legalism and its authoritarian tendencies rule in these troubled times; there can be no entertainment and fun when Qin Shi Huang is reviving the Qin Dynasty. And only after Emperor Taizong defeated the Eastern and Western Turks could the Tang Dynasty relax, allowing Chang’an and Yangzhou to become cosmopolitan cities where commerce, poetry, painting, calligraphy, drunken parties and dancing girls flourished.

President Xi Jinping has been battening down China’s hatches along Legalist lines for over a decade, reining in the loosey-goosey free-for-all of the Hu-Wen era. China is no longer feigning its strength and passing the time.

China’s shipbuilding capacity is more than 200 times that of the US. It is only a matter of time. Without the US Navy Seventh Fleet stationed in Yokosuka, the Qin-esque Communist Party of China will mellow out and become Tang-esque – a version of China much more amenable to an anxious Japan.

Abandoning a well-known equilibrium to confront Japan’s past and secure an unknown future is a high-risk/high-reward endeavor. Japan has everything to lose. An unforgiving China bent on vengeance would be the end of Japan without the US’s support.

Japan, however, also has everything to gain. Japanese politics and society have been hampered for decades by the US military presence. A forgiving China not interested ( much ) in settling scores is the only real future Japan has. The status quo has stunted Japan, turning its novelists into purgatorial torture.

Mishima went out in a macabre blaze of glory. For what could have been, Murakami is unstoppable. And Ryū ( the other ) Murakami wants to set it all on fire. Japan can finally let its Tang renaissance wash over Asia in a hypothetical future free of American alien invasion.

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Malaysian-based BrioHR raises US.5mil Series A in boost to its ASEAN ambitions

  • money provided by Taiwanese investors Honey Ventures, Openspace Ventures, and others.
  • claims that MY, IN, and SG manage pay, adherence, and employee relationship.

BRIOHR - Founders. Benjamin Croc, CEO and Nabil Oudghiri, CTO

BrioHR, a startup focused on creating a workforce that is highly skilled in Malaysia, announced today that it has raised USD$ 6.5 million ( RM30 million ) in Series A funding, which represents a significant advance in the startup’s effort to revolutionize human resources for businesses in Southeast Asia.

The large, led by Openspace Ventures and joined by Taiwan VC, Hive Ventures, and another important regional owners, highlights investor confidence in Malaysia’s it field.

A corporate boost to Malaysia’s digital economy and SME growth

Over 1, 000 businesses in Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, and above are now able to manage payment, compliance, and employee commitment with ease thanks to BrioHR’s all-in-one platform. With new funding, the company intends to expand its operations locally and double down on AI innovation, making complex HR processes simple and accessible for all businesses.

It is a amazing accomplishment, especially given that the financing environment has been difficult since 2022. This investment does help us increase our twofold and help more businesses in Malaysia and ASEAN create a best-in-class modern Human construction, making it a win-win situation for both businesses and their people,” said Benjamin Croc, CEO and co-founder of BrioHR.

He continued,” The investment is a testament to Malaysia’s ability to produce and cultivate regional and global leaders in technology.” Our system is a stage up in how businesses can digitize all of their HR processes, with a particular emphasis on the end-users. Our platform’s UI/UX makes it simple to use and choose for the entire company for peak performance.

Vote of confidence in Malaysia‘s technology goals

Malaysia’s announcement comes as it intensifies its work to become the engine of a US$ 2 trillion ASEAN modern economy by 2030.

With the financing of BrioHR, a local leader in HRMS and pay solutions, we are excited to make a new investment in Malaysia as we continue to build our presence there. They have been able to demonstrate impressive growth and retention to this point thanks to a suite of products created specifically for regional businesses,” said Hian Goh, co-founder and partner of Openspace.

Croc continued, noting that BrioHR’s successful Series A raise is both a milestone for the region’s startup ecosystem and a powerful endorsement of Malaysia’s position as a hub for digital innovation. BrioHR is well positioned to lead this transformation as ASEAN economies evolve and SMEs look for smarter, faster ways to manage their workforce.

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VFlowTech raises US.5 mil to scale long-duration energy storage and enhance AI-driven energy management

  • Money will help expand to other international markets, including Asia, the Middle East, and the Middle East.
  • With new owners Antares Ventures, MOL Plus &amp, and PSA Ventures, Granite Asia led the square.

VFlowTech's Singapore Team

In its most recent funding round, VFlowTech, a Singapore-based leader in long-duration energy storage solutions, raised USD 20.5 million ( RM96 million ).

Granite Asia, a well-known venture capital firm, joined by new traders Antares Ventures, EDBI, MOL Plus, and PSA Ventures, along with existing donors Pappas Capital, Wavemaker Partners, SEEDS Capital, and Entrepreneurs First.

The money, according to VFlowTech, may allow it to expand the production and implementation of its exclusive vanadium oxidation flow batteries, improve its AI-driven fog energy management platform to maximize efficiency and create new revenue streams, and create crucial supply chains, including vanadium recycling, electrolyte innovation, and membrane advancements.

With Singapore positioning itself as a global hub for clever energy options and sustainability, VFlowTech’s AI-powered program will develop advanced smart grid features that will enable customers to reduce energy consumption, participate in strength investing, and increase the ROI of energy storage systems.

Dr. Avishek Kumar ( pic ),VFlowTech’s founder and CEO, said:” As governments and companies place a premium on sustainability, VFlowTech is at the forefront of developing advanced storage options that maximize energy consumption and lower environmental impact. With this funding, we are on the verge of major technological advancement and growth.

” We welcome such a formidable cluster of corporate and financial partners on this journey,” co-founder of VFlowTech Dr. Arjun Bhattarai said. This cash enables us to take on larger projects, expand into new markets, and incorporate cutting-edge electronic intellect into our energy storage solutions, making them both revenue-generating resources as well as storage devices.

” Long-duration energy storage is essential to supporting 100 % renewable energy, the development of EV infrastructure, and the new energy demands impused by accelerated AI adoption. We think VFlowTech and vanadium flow battery technology are well-positioned to snag this market in Asia and the rest of the world. Working with the team will help us create a more sustainable future for everyone, said Granite Asia’s venture partner Kheng Nam Lee.

In addition, Michael Gryseels, founder and managing partner at Antares Ventures, stated that Antares Ventures has supported VFlowTech since its inception, acknowledging its early promise for its battery technology’s transformative potential. The business has evolved over the past six years from a university research project to a leader in long-duration energy storage, thanks to outstanding scientific talent and strong commercial success.

“VFlowTech’s solutions specifically address Asia’s urgent need for affordable, clean energy and improved grid stability, directly enhancing energy security in the region. We look forward to continuing our support alongside zealous investors and strategic partners who are working to secure Asia’s energy future,” he continued.

” We discovered two attractions in VFlowTech. The first is that port terminals and other larger-scale facilities could use their technology. The second is that Southeast Asia and India, which are both MOL’s areas of focus, are their main focus points. We will keep making a difference in business collaboration, according to Takuya Sakamoto, CEO of MOL Plus.

With this investment, VFlowTech will expand more rapidly across Asia, the Middle East, and other global markets, strengthen its commercial team, and expand its presence in key industries like utilities and grid-scale storage, renewable integration, and industrial decarbonization.

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Partners Group acquires Asia data centre operator | FinanceAsia

Partners Group, a data center technician based in Singapore and the Philippines, has acquired Digital Halo from Partners Group. The secret capital investment said it will invest about$ 400 million to help with Digital Halo’s rise along with ARCH Capital Management, which will continue to be a majority investor.

Plaza Media Limited. All trademarks are reserved.

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Post-US-China truce, wiser for Seoul, Tokyo to take the long road – Asia Times

The Donald Trump administration is pursuing a flurry of activities designed to convey the impression that a wave of trade deals is underway. The announcement of an agreement framework with the United Kingdom was followed by talks between Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent and Chinese counterparts.

The United States and China agreed to a ninety-day pause in their tariff war, setting rates of 30 percent by the United States and 10 percent by China while negotiations take place. Talks of de-escalating the high-stakes trade war are clearly aimed at dampening the severe reactions of financial and stock markets.

South Korean officials have seized upon this activity as a sign that bilateral talks can yield positive results, particularly the removal of the 25 percent tariffs imposed on autos, steel, and electronics.

Han Duck-soo, the former prime minister who stepped down to pursue an independent bid for president, expressed hope that he could negotiate a “win-win” deal with President Trump.

“There is always some room for cooperation and good communication among policymakers of the United States and Korea. So I feel rather good about expecting some acceptable final results from that,” Han said at a meeting with foreign correspondents in Seoul on May 7. “We will do our best making win-win solutions.”

But there are grounds for deep skepticism about the prospects for success in these and other talks.

Economist and former New York Times columnist Paul Krugman dismisses reports of the US-UK deal and other deals as “smoke and mirrors, an attempt to persuade the gullible that Trump’s tariffs are actually working.” Krugman argues that these talks are “a response to a problem that didn’t exist” and that trade deficits do not reflect unfair foreign trade practices or high tariffs but rather the huge flows of capital into the United States, which reflect the perception of the United States as an attractive place to invest.

Japan’s experience of two rounds of negotiations with Bessent and other senior US officials is instructive. Japanese negotiators emerged from the talks mystified as to what the Trump administration actually wanted. The US side refused to discuss the biggest tariff rate – the 25 percent tax placed on autos, auto parts, steel, and aluminum – and insisted that these were global tariffs not subject to exemptions.

The Japanese government is in no rush to reach an agreement, although it does not want to be seen as backing away from talks. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces considerable criticism from the opposition for engaging in “tribute diplomacy.” With elections for Japan’s parliamentary upper house coming in July, the ruling party does not want to concede to what are seen as unreasonable demands from the United States.

“It’s not better just because it’s faster,” Ishiba told reporters following the bilateral talks. “For us, while properly asserting our national interests, it’s not good to reach an early conclusion by sacrificing such interests.”

South Korea faces many of the same circumstances. The first round of talks in Washington was similarly inconclusive, and the key issues for Seoul – tariffs on autos, auto parts, steel and aluminum – are also beyond discussion for now. This is unlikely to change even after a new presidential administration is voted into office on June 3.

Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, commenting after the US-UK announcement, acknowledged this reality. “You’ve got to spend an enormous amount of time with Japan, South Korea,” he told reporters. “These are not going to be fast deals.”

Like Japan, South Korea’s strategy has been to seek concessions to induce the removal of the tariffs. Offers to cooperate on shipbuilding and energy production have been put on the table. But trade policy experts doubt those gestures will ultimately succeed.

“Many will still try to use this pause period to finalize something in exchange for a moderation to their initial tariff ‘sentence,’” says Michael Beeman, former assistant US trade representative for Japan, Korea and APEC in the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR).

“There will be value in negotiating since, as I’ve been saying, the threats are a tactic in part — but not in whole. Because at the end of the day, he still wants a new, higher rate on the world,” Beeman, the author of Walking Out: America’s New Trade Policy in the Asia-Pacific and Beyond, told this writer.

The Japanese prime minister explicitly rejected a new, higher rate as a possible outcome. “We are seeking a complete elimination,” Ishiba said on Sunday. “It is not a matter of being satisfied with a certain percentage.”

When engaging the Trump administration, Korea and Japan need to “be patient” and take a longer view, Stanford University Professor Gi-Wook Shin told a recent seminar at Stanford’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center.

Short-term efforts to appease the Trump administration are unavoidable, but they should be paired with efforts to bolster free trade outside. US discussions of reforming the World Trade Organization (WTO) offer one pathway, though admittedly a complex and drawn-out process. More likely are discussions to expand and strengthen existing regional trade regimes in the Indo-Pacific, including through partnerships with the European Union.

According to the Financial Times, plans to forge a strategic partnership between the European Union and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) have been revived in response to the trade wars unleashed by the Trump administration.

The CPTPP already brings together twelve nations, including Canada, Japan, Mexico, Vietnam, Australia, and the United Kingdom, and covers rules for investment, digital trade, and other goods trade. According to the report, support for linking the two arrangements has come from New Zealand, Canada, Singapore, and, quietly, Japan. The proposal could be discussed at the upcoming meeting of trade ministers at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) later this month in South Korea.

“Any efforts to strengthen and widen the CPTPP as a rules-based international trade system are useful,” says a former senior Japanese Foreign Ministry official who led the effort to embrace CPTPP without US participation during the first Trump administration. But the former official adds that he doubts the Ishiba government “has the guts” to do something similar.

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a looser regional trade grouping with fifteen Asia-Pacific member countries — including China — could also gain a larger role. China has presented itself as a guardian of free trade against the Trump administration’s protectionism, reaching out to the European Union, South Korea, Japan, and Southeast Asia as part of a charm offensive. Discussions of a free trade agreement between China, South Korea, and Japan were held recently, partly in response to Trump’s tariffs.

Chinese officials have also expressed an interest in joining the CPTPP. But there is considerable opposition to admitting China out of fear it would dilute the organization’s established standards, including clear restrictions on favoring state-owned enterprises.

“If you put China into the CPTPP, you basically blow it up,” Elizabeth Economy, a widely respected expert on China at Stanford’s Hoover Institution, told the Stanford seminar. “I don’t think the Japanese have any interest in bringing China into the CPTPP.”

South Korea’s participation in CPTPP faces much less opposition and could offer a means to balance the pressure from the Trump administration. The pathway to membership, however, will need to involve the strengthening of South Korea-Japan relations.

But the South Korean government may be reluctant to take that step, suggests Shin. “I don’t think Korea would be interested in joining a multilateral entity that didn’t include the US,” he said.

Such calculations in both Seoul and Tokyo could shift, however, if attempts to bargain with Washington falter and the global economy slips into a recession. In any case, it makes sense for South Korea to look beyond bargaining with Trump and join the construction of a free trade zone in the world economy.

Daniel C. Sneider is a non-resident distinguished fellow at the Korea Economic Institute of America and a lecturer in East Asian studies at Stanford University.

This article was originally published by KEI’s The Peninsula and is republished with permission.

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