South Asia (Page 4)

Pacific Forum published this article at its original publication. It is republished with authority.

The American people’s choice of leader is the common social shame, which is very accurate.

The empire has endured under the leadership of 14 US president and 16 Australian prime ministers since the signing of the ANZUS convention in 1951. One of those prime ministers, Kevin Rudd, now Australia’s ambassador in Washington, draws on that history to buttress the bromide:” We actually&nbsp, do n’t have a view&nbsp, about partisan preferences within this country. That’s a decision for you all to sort out”.

However, the bromide has various Republican and Democrat resemblances as Canberra approaches the US election results.

Australia believes that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris both provide “more of the same” in their respective forms. The meaning of” same” is where Canberra’s alliance confidence takes on contrasting hues. Canberra had &nbsp, expect&nbsp, more of the same from a Harris management and&nbsp, hope&nbsp, for more of the same from another Trump presidency.

The Harris” identical” is a significant improvement over the Trump administration, which delivered. The Trump” equal” is based on the success of the diplomatic partnership during his presidency from 2017 to 2020, despite a&nbsp, serious early&nbsp, alarum.

Under either Harris or Trump, Australia wants to dig what’s been achieved by Joe Biden. An impressive accomplishment is expanding and approving a proper empire that is in its eighth decade, especially given the significant role the US plays in American plan. However, Biden’s plan for an ally was accomplished in the following ways:

the AUKUS&nbsp, atomic submarine&nbsp, arrangement,
• the creation of the Quad grouping of Australia, India, Japan and the US,
• America’s step-up in the South Pacific, as Washington declared a “renewed relationship with the Pacific Islands”, responding to Australia’s see that China’s problem creates” a&nbsp, state of permanent contest&nbsp, in the Pacific”,
• and the influx of US military personnel onto American ground in a new era of alliance integration, which will result in the establishment of a US-Australian mixed intelligence center in Canberra.

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (” Quad” ) is one embodiment of Australia’s more-of-the-same ambition. The value of the grouping has been boosted by Biden, who held six Quad conferences, four of them in person. The second Quad ministerial meetings happened during Trump’s president, but, so Trump has some basic possession. Trump’s supporters say he will keep the Quad. A recent example of Asian proper structures benefits from both Republican and Democratic roots.

Any mention of China is avoided in the standard dialect of Quad. If the conference is the information, however, finally it’s all about China and Beijing’s violent searching in Asia.

At Biden’s last Quad conference in Delaware in September, the leader had a “hot camera” instant when he was heard telling the other leaders in what was supposed to be a closed session:” China continues to behave violently, &nbsp, testing us all&nbsp, across the region, and it’s real in the&nbsp, South China Sea, the East China Sea, South China, South Asia, and the Taiwan Straits”.

Biden said that while Chinese president Xi Jinping was focusing on “domestic financial challenges”, he was even “looking to get himself some political place, in my watch, to aggressively pursue China’s attention”.

Australia finds peace in the fact that there is a rare bipartisan consensus in Washington regarding the conflict with China despite all the groups in US politics. And, whether Trump or Harris is the champion, the next president may realize that the core balance of global power this century may be&nbsp, set in the Indo-Pacific.

The balance-of-power assessment drives official statements of American strategic doctrine. Canberra’s 2023 Defense Strategic Review declares:” The Indo-Pacific is the most&nbsp, essential geostrategic region&nbsp, in the world”. The 2024 National Defence Strategy courts that the world opposition is” sharpest and most consequential&nbsp, in the Indo-Pacific”.

The alliance should be strong and growing in value as a result of this proper logic. That’s why Canberra&nbsp, expects&nbsp, more of the same if Vice President Harris is elected as president. The&nbsp, hope&nbsp, about a minute Trump administration is the crunch when approach comes up against character.

Australia tries to bolster the alliance with several layers of past and determination. The art of this endeavor is to lavish compliment on the US while not criticizing Donald Trump. This is the powerful method employed the first time, and the current Labour government is following the text.

Prime ministers who are retired do n’t have to follow diplomatic orders. And Australia’s next longest serving excellent chancellor, John Howard, has damned Trump as unfit for office.

As primary minister from 1996 to 2007, Howard was the heartiest of US friends. In 2009, President George W. Bush presented Howard with America’s highest human pride, the Presidential&nbsp, Medal of Freedom.

In typical circumstances, Howard said, “instead of supporting a Democratic success,” but not with Trump as the applicant:” I believe his refusal to accept the outcome of the most recent election and his numerous attempts to reverse that outcome were not compatible with politics. When you play the democratic game, you’ve got to accept the democratic result”.

Malcolm Turnbull, the Liberal prime minister who addressed Trump as president in 2017, predicts that Trump will win once more this time.

In an article for&nbsp, Australian Foreign Affairs, &nbsp, Turnbull describes Trump as “bombastic”, “erratic”, and “very much the&nbsp, big, bullying billionaire personality“, writing:” This type is narcissistic, driven, totally focused on accumulating wealth and power for themselves. The one thing I knew about this personality was that if you bully or deceive them, you only get one more bully. Punching them in the nose ( metaphorically or actually ) is rarely successful either. To succeed with them, you need to stand up to them&nbsp, – but courteously. The only thing they respect is strength”.

Turnbull writes that Australia’s current prime minister, Anthony Albanese, ca n’t grovel but must be professional, courteous, and disciplined in disagreeing with elements of Trump’s agenda “on climate, trade and, potentially, Ukraine”. If Australia has business to do with Trump, Turnbull says, only the prime minister can seal the deal, concluding:” The leaders of America’s friends and allies, including Australia, will be among the few who can speak truthfully to Trump. He can shout at them, embarrass them, even threaten them. But he cannot fire them. If there is a second age of Trump, their character, courage, and candor may be the most significant aid they can offer to the United States.

As the bromide proclaims, Australia will work with either Harris or Trump. However, a Biden administration that served Australia’s interests and strategy would provide “more of the same” from Harris. In order to keep the alliance in place and stop it from faltering or falling, Canberra will use all manner of personal, political, and policy ratchets to do so if Trump is elected president. The alliance’s long history provides a lot of advice on how to balance individual policy differences using broad agreement. even negotiating deals between leaders who have opposing or conflicting personalities.

Graeme Dobell&nbsp, ( graemedobell@aspi .org. au ) &nbsp, is a senior fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Since 1975, he has covered Australian and international politics, foreign affairs, defense, and Asia-Pacific.

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A recent Taliban decree bans women from praying aloud in the presence of one another, prohibiting them from hearing each other’s voices. Since returning to power in August 2021, the Taliban have implemented numerous such decrees, raising serious concerns about the basic rights of the Afghan population. Unfortunately, international organizations and countries have largely failed to take meaningful action to support those living under Taliban rule.

But at least much of the rest of the world is aware of those human rights issues. That is not the case with the climate crisis facing Afghanistan. There has been little foreign media coverage of the fact that, despite contributing only 0.3% of global greenhouse gas emissions, this landlocked country of around 42 million people faces increasing environmental disasters that make it one of the world’s lands that are most vulnerable to climate change.

Erratic rainfall, prolonged droughts, unseasonal frosts and flash floods are now common. At present, Afghanistan is ranked sixth in global climate vulnerability and fourth in disaster risk, with the International Rescue Committee identifying it as the third most affected country by climate change in 2023.

Since 1950, temperatures in Afghanistan have increased by 1.8°C, more than twice the global average, which has led to changes in average rainfall patterns and an increase in floods, landslides, and fluctuating groundwater levels. The lack of infrastructure to manage annual floods is estimated to result in economic losses of around $400 million, impacting approximately 335,000 people.

Simultaneously, Afghanistan is grappling with frequent droughts; as of August 2023, 25 out of 34 provinces were experiencing severe or catastrophic drought conditions, affecting over 50% of the country’s population.

The situation is undoubtedly worrisome. Data from 2023 show that approximately 79% of the country’s population does not have adequate access to water, and 67% of households are affected by drought-related hardships while floods impact an additional 16% of the population.

To address climate change concerns, the UNDP and other UN agencies are creating a comprehensive framework comprising four key pillars: climate and disaster risk management; resilient agriculture, livelihoods, and MSMEs; energy and climate-resilient infrastructure to support communities; and water resources and ecosystem management.

At the same time, the Taliban have sought to build infrastructure to use water more productively and effectively.  To deal with the severity of the water crisis, the Taliban regime has been engaged in building around 300 projects aimed at water management in different provinces. Yet some of these hydro-engineering projects have created political issues with the neighboring countries, embroiling Afghanistan and its water-sharing neighbors in disputes.

For instance, the ambitious Qosh Tepa Canal in Afghanistan is expected to significantly impact the water flow of the Amu Darya River, potentially escalating tensions between Afghanistan and its Central Asian neighbors, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

This canal, which is 285 kilometres long, 100 meters wide, and eight meters deep, will have a capacity of approximately 650 cubic meters per second, supplying water to the Balkh, Jawzan, and Faryab provinces. It aims to extract 10 billion cubic meters of water from the Amu Darya River and transform around 550,000 hectares of desert land into farmland, which could affect agricultural production and related economic activities in the region, leading to increased disputes over shared water resources.

In May 2023, heightened tensions over water rights from the transboundary Helmand River led to a violent clash between Iranian border guards and Taliban fighters near the border, resulting in the deaths of two Iranian border guards and one Taliban fighter. This incident underscores the growing tensions over shared water resources between Iran and Afghanistan.

The limited measures currently in place are insufficient to address Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis linked to climate change. The country urgently requires international assistance to confront imminent climate disasters,

However, Afghanistan is excluded from climate policy negotiations because the Taliban is not recognized as an official government. In light of this, ahead of the 29th UN Climate Change Conference (COP 29) in Baku, Azerbaijan, Roza Otunbayeva, the UN Special Representative and head of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, has called for Afghanistan’s inclusion in the conference.

Yet it is unlikely that the Taliban will be invited to COP29. This year, as in 2023, Abdulhadi Ackakzai, an Afghan climate change activist, has been permitted by UN officials to attend COP29 as an observer. In 2023, non-invitation to attend COP28 held in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates was protested by the country’s National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPA).  At the time, the head of the climate change department of NEPA, Rohullah Amin, stated that the issue of climate change should not be politicised. 

With a large portion of the Afghan population suffering under Taliban rule, it is crucial to find a solution before it becomes too late. Both inhuman decrees from the Taliban and the accelerating climate change are stifling the Afghan population.

Dr Amit Ranjan’s research interests include water disputes, South Asian politics (India, Pakistan and Bangladesh), India’s regional policy and India’s internal security. His papers, review essays and book reviews have been widely published in journals, including Asian Affairs, India Quarterly, South Asia Research, and Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs. He has also contributed commentaries, opinion editorials and reviews in newspapers and websites.

Genevieve Donnellon-May is a Researcher at Oxford Global Society and a fellow at the Indo-Pacific Studies Center. She sits on the advisory board member of Modern Diplomacy and is a 2023 CSIS Pacific Forum Young Leader.

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