Russia’s grand geo-economic plan a step closer in Afghanistan – Asia Times
Sergei Shoigu, a director of the Russian Security Council, traveled to Afghanistan this week to promote Moscow’s” Greater Eurasian Partnership,” a great strategic plan to create new trade routes and administrative alliances in Asia.
Russia has prioritized GRP because of the US’s and the West’s unprecedented sanctions against Russia in 2022 following its invasion of Ukraine, which some people view as Russia’s “pivot to Asia” scheme.
Since then, Russia has revived the previously stalled International North-South Transport Corridor ( INSTC ) between itself and India via Iran, with branch corridors through Azerbaijan, the Caspian Sea and Central Asia.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO ), an Eurasian political, economic, and security and defense organization established by Russia and China in 2001, has also been pushed for a larger regional role.
These are pertinent to Afghanistan both through its trade with India via the INSTC and as a SCO spectator. Central, South, and West Asia are at their intersections, and Afghanistan is effectively located there.
Shoigu’s top goal is to increase military-technical assistance with the ruling Taliban so that it can defeat ISIS-K, a militant group that has a presence in Afghanistan and has previously attacked Russia.
In order to better coordinate their efforts to contain local security risks like ISIS-K, Shoigu has pledged that Russia will replace the Taliban from its record of terrorist organizations.
In reverse, Russia is expected to stimulate the SCO to integrate more carefully with Afghanistan, including probably through more intelligence-sharing and future anti-terrorist activities.
Afghanistan’s strategic location also facilitates South Asian power and trade. The Taliban must stabilize private security, strengthen ties with Pakistan, and hope that Pakistan and India’s frequently strained relations will improve in order for that strategy to be viable.
Recent years have seen significant improvement in Russian-Pakistani ties, with considerable progress also being made in recent months. Later in September, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk visited Pakistan for two days, and Moscow hosted the first-ever Russian-Pakistani Trade and Investment Forum.
On the SCO Summit in Tashkent in September 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated to Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif,” The goal is to provide pipeline gas from Russia to Pakistan. This is achievable as , also, in , see of , the , truth that some equipment is already in , location in , Russia, Kazakhstan and , Uzbekistan”.
This potential Russian network may potentially even extend to India if Afghan-Pakistani relationships improve in tandem with Afghan-Pakistani relations.
Even without headway on Putin’s proposed network, Russia could possibly turn Afghanistan into a local oil gateway, as the Taliban envisages, according to a Reuters statement.
Nooruddin Azizi, the acting Afghan secretary of industry and trade, made the report based on what Nooruddin Azizi, the country’s oil-producing nation, said to Sputnik in August 2022 about Kabul’s want to trade its vast mineral reserves.
( In 2010, the US assessed that Afghanistan has nearly US$ 1 trillion worth of untapped minerals, including lithium. )
So, it appears as though the pieces are all in place for Russia to exchange oil for minerals from Afghanistan, transform the country into a local fuel hub, and then assist in mediating an Afghan-Pakistani dispute to facilitate its oil exports to Pakistan and lay the democratic foundation for the construction of a pipeline.
On the business before, a memorandum of understanding ( MoU) to create a travel corridor between Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan was signed in August 2023.
This corridor, which is tentatively referred to as the Central Eurasian Corridor ( CEC ) or the SCO Corridor due to its geographic location and institutional association, was referenced in the MoU signed between Pakistan and Russia during Overchuk’s visit in late September.
These legal grounds can expedite plans to build a Pakistan-Afghanistan-Uzbekistan ( PAKAFUZ) railway. The CEC/SCO Corridor, with PAKAFUZ as its base, can even eventually grow to India dependent on increased ties with Pakistan.
Shoigu traveled to Afghanistan to learn more about closer military-technical cooperation in battling ISIS-K in response to Russia’s pending end of the Taliban’s designation as a terrorist organization.
Russia’s ambitious plans for integrating Afghanistan into its GEP through the construction of a transregional transport corridor with complementary energy infrastructure require this cooperation.
Russia may provide mediation for Pakistan and India’s long-running Kashmir dispute if requested, and this new corridor might encourage them to do so.
In turn, Pakistan could profit from facilitating trade between India and Russia in Central Asia and Afghanistan, while Pakistani trade with all three countries could be facilitated through Pakistan.
By enhancing the role that South Asia, particularly Pakistan and India, play in its balancing act, it will help Russia avoid becoming too dependent on China.
From the incoming Trump administration’s perspective, this would advance the returning president’s stated goal of “un-uniting” Russia and China, though some US officials might seek to obstruct this gambit.
With these possibilities in mind, Shoigu’s trip to Kabul can, therefore, be seen as part of a major power play designed to further Russia’s grand strategic goal of becoming a leading Asian nation.
These plans could be hampered, of course, if ISIS-K is not quickly defeated, and even that could take some time. But improved Russian-Afghan ties could shift the region’s geopolitical and geo-economic balance if even just part of Moscow’s plans come to fruition.
