US President-elect Trump’s ‘America First’ policy will impact global trade in Asia, say analysts

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Holmes said that Trump’s economic policies will help to strengthen the dollar and could prompt the US Federal Reserve to prevent cutting interest rates or at least halt its easing cycle.

“That’s going to hurt places where they’re especially concerned about their forex- Indonesia, for instance. ( In ) Japan, the yen has sold off amongst a strong dollar, ” he said.

In South Asia, places like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and the Island may be affected, but India will likely be spared, he added.

“India seems to be somewhat isolated. It appears to have good relations with Trump, and its GDP ( gross domestic product ) is not significantly impacted by additional business. ”

RELATIONS WITH CHINA

As for US-China relations, Assoc Prof Chong said it depends on what Beijing meant when it called for a “peaceful co-existence ” following Trump’s victory.

They previously proposed that the US influence extends to Guam and other places in the Pacific, and that Beijing should have some sort of influence over everything two points west, ” he said.

It is up to Trump and the other players in the area to decide how they want to live together, deal with, or deal with a prospective situation in such a way. ”

Additionally, according to Assoc Prof. Chong, the world today is much more protectionist than in the beginning of Trump, with China being more concerned with preserving and growing its own business.

He added: “( In ) 2016, there was a lot more trust that China- and even Europe- would be more available to trade, to economic liberalisation. That has now established that it is not the situation.

Asia is today, in some ways, much less cozy than it was in 2016. ”

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Trump or Harris: Australia wants more of the same – Asia Times

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Pacific Forum published this article at its original publication. It is republished with authority.

The American people’s choice of leader is the common social shame, which is very accurate.

The empire has endured under the leadership of 14 US president and 16 Australian prime ministers since the signing of the ANZUS convention in 1951. One of those prime ministers, Kevin Rudd, now Australia’s ambassador in Washington, draws on that history to buttress the bromide:” We actually&nbsp, do n’t have a view&nbsp, about partisan preferences within this country. That’s a decision for you all to sort out”.

However, the bromide has various Republican and Democrat resemblances as Canberra approaches the US election results.

Australia believes that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris both provide “more of the same” in their respective forms. The meaning of” same” is where Canberra’s alliance confidence takes on contrasting hues. Canberra had &nbsp, expect&nbsp, more of the same from a Harris management and&nbsp, hope&nbsp, for more of the same from another Trump presidency.

The Harris” identical” is a significant improvement over the Trump administration, which delivered. The Trump” equal” is based on the success of the diplomatic partnership during his presidency from 2017 to 2020, despite a&nbsp, serious early&nbsp, alarum.

Under either Harris or Trump, Australia wants to dig what’s been achieved by Joe Biden. An impressive accomplishment is expanding and approving a proper empire that is in its eighth decade, especially given the significant role the US plays in American plan. However, Biden’s plan for an ally was accomplished in the following ways:

    the AUKUS&nbsp, atomic submarine&nbsp, arrangement,

  • the creation of the Quad grouping of Australia, India, Japan and the US,
  • America’s step-up in the South Pacific, as Washington declared a “renewed relationship with the Pacific Islands”, responding to Australia’s see that China’s problem creates” a&nbsp, state of permanent contest&nbsp, in the Pacific”,
  • and the influx of US military personnel onto American ground in a new era of alliance integration, which will result in the establishment of a US-Australian mixed intelligence center in Canberra.

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (” Quad” ) is one embodiment of Australia’s more-of-the-same ambition. The value of the grouping has been boosted by Biden, who held six Quad conferences, four of them in person. The second Quad ministerial meetings happened during Trump’s president, but, so Trump has some basic possession. Trump’s supporters say he will keep the Quad. A recent example of Asian proper structures benefits from both Republican and Democratic roots.

Any mention of China is avoided in the standard dialect of Quad. If the conference is the information, however, finally it’s all about China and Beijing’s violent searching in Asia.

At Biden’s last Quad conference in Delaware in September, the leader had a “hot camera” instant when he was heard telling the other leaders in what was supposed to be a closed session:” China continues to behave violently, &nbsp, testing us all&nbsp, across the region, and it’s real in the&nbsp, South China Sea, the East China Sea, South China, South Asia, and the Taiwan Straits”.

Biden said that while Chinese president Xi Jinping was focusing on “domestic financial challenges”, he was even “looking to get himself some political place, in my watch, to aggressively pursue China’s attention”.

Australia finds peace in the fact that there is a rare bipartisan consensus in Washington regarding the conflict with China despite all the groups in US politics. And, whether Trump or Harris is the champion, the next president may realize that the core balance of global power this century may be&nbsp, set in the Indo-Pacific.

The balance-of-power assessment drives official statements of American strategic doctrine. Canberra’s 2023 Defense Strategic Review declares:” The Indo-Pacific is the most&nbsp, essential geostrategic region&nbsp, in the world”. The 2024 National Defence Strategy courts that the world opposition is” sharpest and most consequential&nbsp, in the Indo-Pacific”.

The alliance should be strong and growing in value as a result of this proper logic. That’s why Canberra&nbsp, expects&nbsp, more of the same if Vice President Harris is elected as president. The&nbsp, hope&nbsp, about a minute Trump administration is the crunch when approach comes up against character.

Australia tries to bolster the alliance with several layers of past and determination. The art of this endeavor is to lavish compliment on the US while not criticizing Donald Trump. This is the powerful method employed the first time, and the current Labour government is following the text.

Prime ministers who are retired do n’t have to follow diplomatic orders. And Australia’s next longest serving excellent chancellor, John Howard, has damned Trump as unfit for office.

As primary minister from 1996 to 2007, Howard was the heartiest of US friends. In 2009, President George W. Bush presented Howard with America’s highest human pride, the Presidential&nbsp, Medal of Freedom.

In typical circumstances, Howard said, “instead of supporting a Democratic success,” but not with Trump as the applicant:” I believe his refusal to accept the outcome of the most recent election and his numerous attempts to reverse that outcome were not compatible with politics. When you play the democratic game, you’ve got to accept the democratic result”.

Malcolm Turnbull, the Liberal prime minister who addressed Trump as president in 2017, predicts that Trump will win once more this time.

In an article for&nbsp, Australian Foreign Affairs, &nbsp, Turnbull describes Trump as “bombastic”, “erratic”, and “very much the&nbsp, big, bullying billionaire personality“, writing:” This type is narcissistic, driven, totally focused on accumulating wealth and power for themselves. The one thing I knew about this personality was that if you bully or deceive them, you only get one more bully. Punching them in the nose ( metaphorically or actually ) is rarely successful either. To succeed with them, you need to stand up to them&nbsp, – but courteously. The only thing they respect is strength”.

Turnbull writes that Australia’s current prime minister, Anthony Albanese, ca n’t grovel but must be professional, courteous, and disciplined in disagreeing with elements of Trump’s agenda “on climate, trade and, potentially, Ukraine”. If Australia has business to do with Trump, Turnbull says, only the prime minister can seal the deal, concluding:” The leaders of America’s friends and allies, including Australia, will be among the few who can speak truthfully to Trump. He can shout at them, embarrass them, even threaten them. But he cannot fire them. If there is a second age of Trump, their character, courage, and candor may be the most significant aid they can offer to the United States.

As the bromide proclaims, Australia will work with either Harris or Trump. However, a Biden administration that served Australia’s interests and strategy would provide “more of the same” from Harris. In order to keep the alliance in place and stop it from faltering or falling, Canberra will use all manner of personal, political, and policy ratchets to do so if Trump is elected president. The alliance’s long history provides a lot of advice on how to balance individual policy differences using broad agreement. even negotiating deals between leaders who have opposing or conflicting personalities.

Graeme Dobell&nbsp, ( graemedobell@aspi .org. au ) &nbsp, is a senior fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Since 1975, he has covered Australian and international politics, foreign affairs, defense, and Asia-Pacific.

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Green fashion: Why dyeing clothes has a big environmental impact

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Getty Images Workers at a dyeing factory in Bangladesh stand knee-deep in blue dye.Getty Images

The start-up Alchemie Technology is in the final stages of launching a venture it claims will destroy the world clothing business and reduce its carbon footprints in a small corner of rural Taiwan, set amongst other colour houses and small factories.

With the country’s second modern dyeing process, the UK-based start-up has targeted one of the dirtiest areas of the clothing business: dyeing fabric.

” Traditionally, you soak a piece of fabric in waters at 135 degrees Fahrenheit for about four hours, accumulating liters and a lot of water. For instance, to colour one bit of nylon, you’re generating 30 lots of poisonous wastewater”, Alchemie leader Dr Alan Hudd tells me.

He points out that the same method was developed 175 years earlier in the northwest of England, in the Lancashire cotton mill and the Yorkshire cotton mill, and that we exported it, first to the US and then to the companies in Asia.

Crates of white textiles sit in a large dyeing factory

The apparel industry uses an estimated five trillion litres of water each year to simply dye fabric, according to the World Resources Institute, a US-based non-profit research centre.

The industry is, in turn, responsible for 20% of the world’s industrial water pollution, while also using up vital resources like groundwater in some countries. It also releases a massive carbon footprint from start to finish – or around 10% of annual global emissions, according to the United Nations Environment Programme.

Alchemie claims its tech can assist in resolving that issue.

Called Endeavour, its system is compress cloth coloring, drying, and fixing into a considerably shorter and water-saving process.

According to the company, Endeavour uses the same concept as inkjet printers to quickly and precisely fire colour onto and through the material. The computer’s 2, 800 dispensers flames about 1.2 billion droplets per straight meter of fabric.

” What we’re really doing is registering and putting a very small cut, a really small fall, precisely and accurately onto the fabric,” the company said. And we can change these falls on and off, just like a mild switch”, says Dr Hudd.

Alchemie claims that the process produces significant savings, working three to five times as quickly as traditional processes, and reducing water consumption by 95 %, energy consumption, and energy consumption by 85 %.

Developed first in Cambridge, the business is now in Taiwan to see how Endeavour works in a real-world setting.

” The UK, they’re actually strong in R&amp, D tasks, they’re actually strong in inventing new things, but surely if you want to shift to commercialism you need to go to the actual companies”, says Ryan Chen, the new chief of operations at Alchemie, who has a background in cotton production in Taiwan.

A roll of white cloth sits on Alchemie's new dyeing machine

Other businesses are making attempts to produce nearly waterless dye.

There’s the China-based textile company NTX, which has developed a heatless dye process that can cut down water use by 90 % and dye by 40 %, according to their website, and the Swedish start-up Imogo, which also uses a “digital spray application” with similar environmental benefits.

NTX and Imogo did not reply to the BBC’s interview request.

The solutions provided by these companies “look quite promising,” according to Kirsi Niinimäki, a professor in design who studies the future of textiles at Finland’s Aalto University. However, she says she would like to see more detailed information about issues like the fixing process and long-term studies on fabric durability.

But even though it’s early days, Ms Niinimäki says companies like Alchemie could bring real changes to the industry.

” All these kinds of new technologies, I think that they are improvements. If you’re able to use less water, for example, that of course means less energy, and perhaps even less chemicals – so that of course is a huge improvement”.

Black textiles on the Alchemie dyeing machine

There are still some issues to be resolved in Taiwan, such as how to operate the Endeavour machine in a hotter, humid climate than the UK.

Matthew Avis, the service manager for Endeavour, discovered that the machine needed to operate in an air-conditioned environment, which is a significant lesson given how much apparel manufacturing occurs in southern Asia.

The business also has ambitious objectives in 2025. Alchemie is now traveling next to South Asia and Portugal to test its machines and try it out on cotton after its test run with polyester in Taiwan.

Additionally, they will need to determine how to expand Endeavour.

Big fashion companies like Inditex, the owner of Zara, work with thousands of factories. Its suppliers would require hundreds of Endeavours to work together to meet the fabric dyeing industry’s demand.

And that’s just one company- there will be many, many more in need.

More Technology of Business

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Pakistan shuts primary schools in Lahore over record pollution

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CHILDREN PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE More than 40 times the WHO’s recommended acceptable levels of fine particulate matter ( fine particulate matter ) were present in the air on Saturday, making it dangerous PM2.5 pollutants. PM2.5 degrees on Sunday night exceeded that before decreasing significantly. The municipal environmental protection agency placed newContinue Reading

FM pushes regional partnerships

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Maris prepares for an India vacation.

PUBLISHED: 3 Nov 2024 at 05: 13

Maris: Thailand in ideal place to profit
Maris: Thailand in excellent position to gain

Thailand aims to collaborate with South Asian nations on food, power, and individual security, according to Foreign Affairs Minister Maris Sangiampongsa on Saturday, in order to increase business with the Southeast.

After meeting with Thai ministers and ministers based in the area during his Friday visit to India, Mr. Maris emphasised the strategic significance of South Asia.

He said the region is home to almost two billion occupants, about a third of the world’s population, and serves as a crucial connection of land and sea connection, making it a focal point of geopolitical and economic attention.

He stated that because Thailand is a key player in South and Southeast Asia, the country collaborates closely with South Asian nations through the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation ( Bimstec) and Association of Southeast Asian Nations ( Asean ) Plus Three ), with each region having a population of around two billion people.

The chancellor also praised the potential of Thailand to relieve trade tensions between Central Asia and South Asia, including countries like Tajikistan and Kazakhstan, both of which are connected to Europe.

Mr Maris noted that India, with its long-standing political relations with Thailand, is Thailand’s most important partner in South Asia.

He claimed that he met Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, the foreign minister of India, on Saturday to talk about several issues, including prospective cooperation to promote sustainable regional development.

Mr Maris said this agreement is piece of Thailand’s tactical plan, especially under Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s management, which seeks to strengthen relationships with emerging markets.

He also highlighted the importance of Bangladesh, a country with great potential but now facing economic and political challenges, and Sri Lanka, another vital partner that shares social ties with Thailand, especially in Buddhism, trade and investment.

In contrast, he said he has directed Thai officials in the region to prioritise a people-centred international policy, focusing on three main columns.

Mr Maris said the first pillar is food safety, the next revolves around strength protection, and the fourth relates to human safety.

He added that the meeting may also include possible military and defense partnerships and opportunities for mutual training exercises with India, Pakistan, and other South Asian nations.

The secretary also underscored the importance of hospitality and cultural exchange, including health hospitality, which can utilize Thailand’s strategic area for the good of the business, growth and jobs.

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Vasudeo Gaitonde: The rebel painter who ushered in a new era of Indian art

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Chinha Vasudeo Gaitonde in his younger days from the collection of his sister, Kishori DasChinha

Some artists become legends in their lifetime yet remain a mystery years after their death.

Indian painter Vasudeo Santu Gaitonde, born 100 years ago on 2 November 1924, was one such master.

Considered one of South Asia’s greatest abstract painters, Gaitonde was part of a rebellious generation of artists who laid the foundation for a new era of Indian art in the mid-20th Century.

He was deeply inspired by the techniques used by Western painters but his work remained rooted in Asian philosophy, infusing light and texture in ways that, admirers say, evokes a profound sense of calmness.

His paintings were meant to be “meditations on the light and universe”, says Yamini Mehta, who worked as the international head of South Asian Art at Sotheby’s.

“The play of light and shadows and texture makes these paintings dynamic.”

In a career that spanned decades, Gaitonde never pursued fame or fortune. But his works continue to grab attention at auctions, years after his death in 2001.

In 2022, an untitled oil painting by him fetched 420m rupees (nearly $5m; £3.9m), setting a new record for Indian art at that time. The bluish shades of the work reminded viewers of large expanses of the sea or sky.

Saffronart Before Vasudeo Gaitonde set the record for the costliest Indian painting in 2022, his 1961 painting, auctioned for nearly 400m ($4.8m; £3.7m) rupees a year before, was the record-holderSaffronart

Gaitonde lived as a recluse for most of his life. He was deeply impacted by Japanese Zen philosophy and this meditative mindset was often reflected in his paintings.

“Everything starts from silence. The silence of the canvas. The silence of the painting knife. The painter starts by absorbing all these silences… Your entire being is working together with the brush, the painting knife, the canvas to absorb that silence and create,” he told journalist Pritish Nandy in a rare interview in 1991.

Originally from the western state of Goa, Gaitonde’s family lived in Mumbai city (formerly Bombay) in a small, three-room dwelling in a chawl – an affordable tenement complex for the city’s working class.

A born artist, he joined Mumbai’s famous JJ School of Arts for training in 1946. Despite his father’s disapproval – art was not seen as a viable career in India at the time – Gaitonde funded his own studies and earned a diploma in 1948.

Getty Images A painting by Indian artist Gaitonde is seen on display at the Bonhams auction house in New York on September 15, 2014.Getty Images

For some time, he was part of a group of influential Indian artists called the Progressive Artists Group, which was set up to encourage new forms of art. Formed in 1947 in Mumbai, the group counted leading artists such as Francis Souza, SH Raza, MF Husain and Bhanu Athaiya – the first Indian to win an Oscar – as its members.

Gaitonde also worked at the city’s Bhulabhai Desai Memorial Institute, another hub frequented by legends such as sitarist Ravi Shankar and theatre artist Ebrahim Alkazi.

“This was an interesting time as Mumbai was a hotbed of creativity,” says artist and writer Satish Naik, who has published an anthology on Gaitonde in the Marathi language.

Indian art at that time was largely dominated by realism, found in the murals of the Ajanta caves and in Mughal art or miniature paintings.

“Gaitonde began with realistic works but soon sought a different path. He was one of the first ones to reject the form and adopt the formless,” Naik said.

“In that sense, he was a rebel. He wanted to paint as it pleased him, not as someone dictated to him.”

Gaitonde’s deep interest in spirituality helped him progress towards his craft.

“My paintings are nothing else but the reflection of nature,” he once wrote in a 1963 questionnaire for New York’s Museum of Modern Art.

Getty Images Auctioneer Hugo Weihe interacts with bidder on Vasudeo S Gaitonde's (1924-2001) untitled oil painting painted in 1979, at India's first South Asia Art organized by Christie's at Taj Mahal hotel, on December 19, 2013 in Mumbai, India. Getty Images

In 1963, Morris Graves, a famous abstract painter from the US, saw Gaitonde’s work during a trip to India, and was heavily impressed.

He immediately sent a letter to Dan and Marian Johnson of the Willard Gallery in New York, describing him as “one of the finest” painters he had ever seen.

“He’s as fine – or superb – as Mark Rothko at his best and will be a world-known painter one of these days,” Graves wrote.

“He is an abstract painter with something unspeakably beautiful and clean. They are the most beautiful landscapes of the mind plus light.”

In 1964, Gaitonde moved to New York after getting the Rockefeller Fellowship. The next two years were a formative phase in his career as the young artist got a chance to meet American modern artists and see their works, which further developed his style.

In 1971, Gaitonde received the Padma Shri, the fourth-highest civilian award in India, for his outstanding contribution to art.

But despite his growing fame, he became increasingly withdrawn in the coming years.

His disciple and renowned artist Laxman Shreshtha recounts in Naik’s book how MF Husain would often try to visit Gaitonde at his Delhi residence.

“If Gaitonde didn’t want to meet anyone, he would not open the door, not even for Husain who would sketch something on the door and go. That was Husain’s way of saying ‘I had dropped by’.”

Getty Images A woman looks at Gaitonde's Untitled in the Modern & Contemporary South Asian Art Sale during a media preview March 10, 2016 for Sotheby's New York Asia Week Auction and Selling Exhibitions Getty Images

Even his work underwent a shift. Usually, the artist would paint anywhere between six and seven canvases in a year. But after a spinal injury in 1984, the numbers went down considerably.

“I still continue to paint; I make paintings in my head. I now have limited energy which I need to conserve and cannot waste putting paint to canvas,” he once told art gallerist Dadiba Pundole.

As Gaitonde’s stature as an artist grew, his paintings became fewer and rarer, all of which added to the charm and mystery surrounding his work.

It is perhaps also one of the reasons why his paintings command such high prices even today.

When Gaitonde died in 2001 at the age of 77, his death went widely unreported as the artist lived his last years in obscurity.

But his thought-provoking canvases continued to make waves around the world.

Cara Manes, an associate curator at the Museum of Modern Art, once said that Gaitonde’s works were an embodiment of what silence might look like. “And yet there’s a certain shimmering effect that emerges out of that silence which is then pitted against these very solid marks, assertive application of colours.”

For the artist, though, art remained a deeply personal form of self-expression.

He often said: “I let the colours flow and watch. That is my painting.”

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Afghanistan’s climate chaos – Asia Times

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A recent Taliban decree bans women from praying aloud in the presence of one another, prohibiting them from hearing each other’s voices. Since returning to power in August 2021, the Taliban have implemented numerous such decrees, raising serious concerns about the basic rights of the Afghan population. Unfortunately, international organizations and countries have largely failed to take meaningful action to support those living under Taliban rule.

But at least much of the rest of the world is aware of those human rights issues. That is not the case with the climate crisis facing Afghanistan. There has been little foreign media coverage of the fact that, despite contributing only 0.3% of global greenhouse gas emissions, this landlocked country of around 42 million people faces increasing environmental disasters that make it one of the world’s lands that are most vulnerable to climate change.

Erratic rainfall, prolonged droughts, unseasonal frosts and flash floods are now common. At present, Afghanistan is ranked sixth in global climate vulnerability and fourth in disaster risk, with the International Rescue Committee identifying it as the third most affected country by climate change in 2023.

Since 1950, temperatures in Afghanistan have increased by 1.8°C, more than twice the global average, which has led to changes in average rainfall patterns and an increase in floods, landslides, and fluctuating groundwater levels. The lack of infrastructure to manage annual floods is estimated to result in economic losses of around $400 million, impacting approximately 335,000 people.

Simultaneously, Afghanistan is grappling with frequent droughts; as of August 2023, 25 out of 34 provinces were experiencing severe or catastrophic drought conditions, affecting over 50% of the country’s population.

The situation is undoubtedly worrisome. Data from 2023 show that approximately 79% of the country’s population does not have adequate access to water, and 67% of households are affected by drought-related hardships while floods impact an additional 16% of the population.

To address climate change concerns, the UNDP and other UN agencies are creating a comprehensive framework comprising four key pillars: climate and disaster risk management; resilient agriculture, livelihoods, and MSMEs; energy and climate-resilient infrastructure to support communities; and water resources and ecosystem management.

At the same time, the Taliban have sought to build infrastructure to use water more productively and effectively.  To deal with the severity of the water crisis, the Taliban regime has been engaged in building around 300 projects aimed at water management in different provinces. Yet some of these hydro-engineering projects have created political issues with the neighboring countries, embroiling Afghanistan and its water-sharing neighbors in disputes.

For instance, the ambitious Qosh Tepa Canal in Afghanistan is expected to significantly impact the water flow of the Amu Darya River, potentially escalating tensions between Afghanistan and its Central Asian neighbors, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

This canal, which is 285 kilometres long, 100 meters wide, and eight meters deep, will have a capacity of approximately 650 cubic meters per second, supplying water to the Balkh, Jawzan, and Faryab provinces. It aims to extract 10 billion cubic meters of water from the Amu Darya River and transform around 550,000 hectares of desert land into farmland, which could affect agricultural production and related economic activities in the region, leading to increased disputes over shared water resources.

In May 2023, heightened tensions over water rights from the transboundary Helmand River led to a violent clash between Iranian border guards and Taliban fighters near the border, resulting in the deaths of two Iranian border guards and one Taliban fighter. This incident underscores the growing tensions over shared water resources between Iran and Afghanistan.

The limited measures currently in place are insufficient to address Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis linked to climate change. The country urgently requires international assistance to confront imminent climate disasters,

However, Afghanistan is excluded from climate policy negotiations because the Taliban is not recognized as an official government. In light of this, ahead of the 29th UN Climate Change Conference (COP 29) in Baku, Azerbaijan, Roza Otunbayeva, the UN Special Representative and head of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, has called for Afghanistan’s inclusion in the conference.

Yet it is unlikely that the Taliban will be invited to COP29. This year, as in 2023, Abdulhadi Ackakzai, an Afghan climate change activist, has been permitted by UN officials to attend COP29 as an observer. In 2023, non-invitation to attend COP28 held in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates was protested by the country’s National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPA).  At the time, the head of the climate change department of NEPA, Rohullah Amin, stated that the issue of climate change should not be politicised. 

With a large portion of the Afghan population suffering under Taliban rule, it is crucial to find a solution before it becomes too late. Both inhuman decrees from the Taliban and the accelerating climate change are stifling the Afghan population.

Dr Amit Ranjan’s research interests include water disputes, South Asian politics (India, Pakistan and Bangladesh), India’s regional policy and India’s internal security. His papers, review essays and book reviews have been widely published in journals, including Asian Affairs, India Quarterly, South Asia Research, and Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs. He has also contributed commentaries, opinion editorials and reviews in newspapers and websites.

Genevieve Donnellon-May is a Researcher at Oxford Global Society and a fellow at the Indo-Pacific Studies Center. She sits on the advisory board member of Modern Diplomacy and is a 2023 CSIS Pacific Forum Young Leader.

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Brics: How an evolving and expanding bloc benefits India

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Getty Images OSAKA, JAPAN - JUNE 28: (RUSSIA OUT) Russian President Vladimir Putin (L), Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (C) and Chinese President Xi Jinping (R) pose for a group photo prior to their trilateral meeting at the G20 Osaka Summit 2019 on June 28, 2019 in Osaka, Japan. Vladimir Putin has arrived in Japan to participate in the G20 Osaka Summit and to meet U.S.President Donald Trump. (Photo by Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images)Getty Images

For years, Western critics have dismissed Brics as a relatively inconsequential entity.

But this past week, at its annual summit in Russia, the group triumphantly showcased just how far it has come.

Top leaders from 36 countries, as well as the UN Secretary General, attended the three-day event, and Brics formally welcomed four new members – Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. More membership expansions could soon follow. Brics had previously added only one new member – South Africa in 2010 – since its inception (as the Bric states) in 2006.

There’s a growing buzz around Brics, which has long projected itself as an alternative to Western-led models of global governance. Today, it’s becoming more prominent and influential as it capitalises on growing dissatisfaction with Western policies and financial structures.

Ironically, India – perhaps the most Western-oriented Brics member – is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the group’s evolution and expansion.

India enjoys deep ties with most new Brics members. Egypt is a growing trade and security partner in the Middle East. The UAE (along with Saudi Arabia, which has been offered Brics membership but hasn’t yet formally joined) is one of India’s most important partners overall. India’s relationship with Ethiopia is one of its longest and closest in Africa.

Brics’ original members continue to offer important benefits for India too.

Delhi can leverage Brics to signal its continued commitment to close friend Russia, despite Western efforts to isolate it. And working with rival China in Brics helps India in its slow, cautious effort to ease tensions with Beijing, especially on the heels of a border patrolling deal announced by Delhi on the eve of the summit. That announcement likely gave Prime Minister Narendra Modi the necessary diplomatic and political space to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the summit’s sidelines.

Additionally, Brics enables India to advance its core foreign policy principle of strategic autonomy, whereby it aims to balance relations with a wide spectrum of geopolitical players, without formally allying with any of them.

Delhi has important partnerships, both bilateral and multilateral, inside and outside the West. In that sense, its presence in an increasingly robust Brics and relations with its members can be balanced with its participation in a revitalised Indo-Pacific Quad and its strong ties with the US and other Western powers.

More broadly, Brics’ priorities are India’s priorities.

Getty Images Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, The United Arab Emirates' President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian and Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira pose for a family photo during the BRICS summit in Kazan on October 23, 2024. (Photo by MAXIM SHIPENKOV / POOL / AFP) (Photo by MAXIM SHIPENKOV/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)Getty Images

The joint statement issued after the recent summit trumpets the same principles and goals that Delhi articulates in its own public messaging and policy documents: engaging with the Global South (a critical outreach target for Delhi), promoting multilateralism and multipolarity, advocating for UN reform (Delhi badly wants a permanent seat on the UN Security Council), and criticising the Western sanctions regime (which impacts Delhi’s trade with Russia and infrastructure projects with Iran).

And yet, all this may appear to pose a problem for India.

With Brics gaining momentum, inducting new members, and attracting global discontents, the group is seemingly poised to begin implementing its longstanding vision – articulated emphatically by Beijing and Moscow – of serving as a counter to the West.

Additionally, Brics’ new members include Iran and, possibly further down the road, Belarus and Cuba – suggesting the future possibility of an outright anti-West tilt.

While India aims to balance its ties with the Western and non-Western worlds, it would not want to be part of any arrangement perceived as avowedly anti-West.

However, in reality, such fears are unfounded.

Brics is not an anti-West entity. Aside from Iran, all the new members have close ties with the West. Additionally, the many countries rumoured as possible future members don’t exactly constitute an anti-West bloc; they include Turkey, a Nato member, and Vietnam, a key US trade partner.

And even if Brics were to gain more anti-West members, the grouping would likely struggle to implement the types of initiatives that could pose an actual threat to the West.

The joint statement issued after the recent summit identified a range of plans, including an international payment system that would counter the US dollar and evade Western sanctions.

But here, a longstanding criticism of Brics – that it can’t get meaningful things done – continues to loom large. For one thing, Brics projects meant to reduce reliance on the US dollar likely aren’t viable, because many member states’ economies cannot afford to wean themselves off of it.

Additionally, the original Brics states have often struggled to see eye to eye, and cohesion and consensus will be even more difficult to achieve with an expanded membership.

India may get along well with most Brics members, but many new members don’t get along well with each other.

Iran has issues with both Egypt and the UAE, and Egypt-Ethiopia relations are tense.

One might hope that the recent easing of tensions between China and India could bode well for Brics.

But let’s be clear: despite their recent border accord, India’s ties with China remain highly strained.

An ongoing broader border dispute, intensifying bilateral competition across South Asia and in the Indian Ocean region, and China’s close alliance with Pakistan rule out the possibility of a détente anytime soon.

Getty Images KAZAN, RUSSIA - OCTOBER 24: President of Russia Vladimir Putin speaks at a press conference held as part of the 16th BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia on October 24, 2024. (Photo by Sefa Karacan/Anadolu via Getty Images)Getty Images

Brics today offers the best of all worlds for Delhi. It enables India to work with some of its closest friends in an expanding organisation that espouses principles close to India’s heart, from multilateralism to embracing the Global South.

It affords India the opportunity to stake out more balance in its relations with the West and non-Western states, in an era when Delhi’s relations with the US and its Western allies (with the notable exception of Canada) have charted new heights.

At the same time, Brics’ continuing struggles to achieve more internal cohesion and to get more done on a concrete level ensure that the group is unlikely to pose a major threat to the West, much less to become an anti-West behemoth – neither of which India would want.

The most likely outcome to emerge from the recent summit, as suggested by the joint statement, is a Brics commitment to partner on a series of noncontroversial, low-hanging-fruit initiatives focused on climate change, higher education, public health, and science and technology, among others.

Such cooperation would entail member states working with each other, and not against the West – an ideal arrangement for India.

These collaborations in decidedly safe spaces would also demonstrate that an ascendant Brics need not make the West uncomfortable. And that would offer some useful reassurance after the group’s well-attended summit in Russia likely attracted some nervous attention in Western capitals.

Michael Kugelman is the director of the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute in Washington

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Why Modi’s shifting India away from US toward China – Asia Times

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On the heels of the 16th BRICS mountain, India and China have lately come to an agreement to end their protracted border standoff in the northern region of the India-China Himalayan border. Since the death of 20 Indian and an undetermined number of Chinese troops in a high-mountain conflict on June 15, 2020, conflicts have erupted.

After Prime Minister Narendra Modi took office and began boosting ties with the United States, China’s major grievance with India became public. India began putting together contracts that successfully made it a US partner and supporter in South Asia.

China perceived this as part of Washington’s broader” China containment policy”, which was central to former President Barack Obama’s” Pivot to Asia” strategy during his second term. China attempted to exert pressure on India in response, attempting to prevent it from aligning itself very strongly with the US.

On August 29, 2016, India and the US signed an adapted version of the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement ( LEMOA ). In reply, China ramped up pressure on India, especially at the Doklam tri-junction, where the edges of Bhutan, China and India merge.

In an effort to relieve tensions, India’s then-foreign minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, visited Beijing and assured his Chinese rivals that India was committed to resolving variations through a high-level system.

This led to the first casual conference between Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Wuhan, China, on April 27–28, 2018, where both officials &nbsp, discussed and agreed on several issues to handle their differences.

On the eve of the first 2 2 dialogue between the two nations, India continued to sign another fundamental agreement with the US, the Communications and Information Security Memorandum of Agreement ( CISMOA ).

On October 11-12, 2019, the following casual conference between Modi and Xi took place in Mahabalipuram, Tamil Nadu. The mountain, however, appeared to be a disappointment, possible due to Modi’s determination to align more closely with the US by agreeing to a third basic deal. Xi of India’s purpose to define its relationship with the US may have been Modi’s blunt response during their conversations.

Xi later made this notion during a formal visit to Kathmandu, Nepal, shortly after the Mahabalipuram conference. Xi it warned that “anyone attempting to cut China in any part of the country may end in smashed body and shattered bones,” which could have been interpreted as a covert response to India’s growing ties with the US.

Following the deadly clashes in Galwan on June 15, 2020, the Indian media—often referred to as” Godi media” for its pro-Modi stance—launched an intense anti-China propaganda campaign. India continued to strengthen its ties with the US despite China’s concerns and Modi’s earlier assurances to Xi at the Wuhan summit.

India’s fourth foundational agreement with the US, known as the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geospatial Intelligence ( BECA ), was signed on October 26, 2020, further bolstering its partnership. This was done in response to the General Security of Military Information Agreement ( GSOMIA ) being signed earlier in 2002. By moving forward with these agreements, India formally aligned itself with the US, disregarding Chinese objections.

Modi sounded assured that his enticing relationship with then-US President Donald Trump would give India preferential access to US technology and markets. During his visit to the US, Modi even campaigned for Trump’s re-election at the” Howdy, Modi”! event in Houston, Texas, where he famously cheered,” ‘ Abki Baar, Trump Sarkar’, rang loud and clear”. ( meaning” Next term, Trump’s government” ).

High-ranking US officials at the time frequently predicted that an Indian caravan of American companies would move from China. However, this shift never substantially materialized, and US investment in India remains minimal. Instead, India’s trade dependence on China has increased significantly.

In his second term as prime minister, Modi appoints S. Jaishankar in 2019, hoping that his pro-American stance will encourage investment and technology in the United States as well as secure preferential access to Indian goods in American markets, as China did in the 1990s.

However, treaties and regulations that the US government has in place mostly limit the scope of the US government’s role in its economy to establishing a legal framework for international trade and investment. The host nation is responsible for creating a conducive investment environment, which American investors have long felt is lacking in India. Instead of increased US investment, major American companies like Ford, General Motors and Harley-Davidson exited the Indian market during this period.

Recently, it was hoped that assembling Apple’s iPhones in India would be a successful venture. However, the initiative experienced significant setbacks as a result of a high rejection rate of 50 %, concerns about E coli bacteria contamination, and lower worker productivity than in China. As a result, India’s economic gains from joining the US and becoming a partner did not materialize as planned.

On the geopolitical front, meanwhile, India lost significantly. It once regarded South Asia and the Indian Ocean as its main areas of influence, but none of its neighbors, who have since become US allies, still do so. India has arguably grown closer to the US as a subordinate ally.

This was made clear when the US carried out a Freedom of Navigation Operation ( FONOPS) in the Indian Ocean on April 7, 2021, which sparked a strong backlash in Indian academia and media despite India being a US partner. Additionally, the US has been accused of fueling anti-India sentiment in neighboring countries and covertly helping to oust pro-Indian governments in Sri Lanka, Nepal, and the Maldives.

This made India realize that Washington expects it to renounce its” strategic autonomy” and that its assertions of a regional sphere of influence in South Asia are unacceptable.

Henry Kissinger famously remarked,” It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal”. This sentiment seems to fit India’s experience perfectly. At regional gatherings, the US continued to press India politically.

Meanwhile, despite India’s rhetorical trade restrictions on Chinese goods, its trade with China continued to grow. India’s increased trade with the US was largely driven by its rising imports from China. This interaction revealed that while China is required by China for its economic growth, China is not required by India.

Ultimately, after four years of experimenting with foreign policy, the Modi government came to understand that China’s cooperation is essential for India’s economic development. The economic adviser to the prime minister claimed that because of its dependence on India and the possibility of growing Chinese investment, China would likely refrain from intervening in border issues.

On the other hand, the West put more pressure on India to oppose Russia following the conflict in Ukraine. India was persuaded to abandon its relationship with Russia by the US, promising in exchange for arms if it continued to purchase Russian oil.

Despite this pressure, India has continued to buy cheap Russian oil and is currently Russia’s largest oil buyer. Russia accounts for approximately 36 % of India’s arms imports. India’s national interests are at odds with the US’s pressure on it to refrain from purchasing arms and oil from Russia.

Recently, the US and Canada have been pressing India to cut off from China and leave the BRICS. Following the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, Canada’s expulsion of Indian diplomats highlighted this effort. In addition, the US Department of Justice has started legal action against an Indian government employee in connection with Gurpatwant Singh Pannun’s alleged attempted murder.

Modi’s allies now recognize that maintaining a relationship with China is crucial for India’s economic development. India would face significant challenges if China placed trade restrictions on it. India can no longer expect the benefits the US provided China in the 1990s.

Additionally, the US-US alliance agreements have proven ineffective in putting pressure on China. Due to India’s protectionist industrial and international trade policies, which favor the return of manufacturing to America, Modi has come to terms with this country’s ability to obtain preferential market access, technology, or investment from the US. Consequently, he has also acknowledged that India can seek technology, investment and market opportunities from China.

Dr. Manmohan Singh’s government was arguably more resilient than any other administration in India to withstand American pressure. Before the 2014 elections, the US exerted significant pressure on India to support its” Pivot to Asia” policy.

However, Singh’s government resisted these demands. When the US detained and conducted Indian diplomat Devyani Khobragade, there was a significant backlash in India. In response, the Singh administration withdrew the privileges of US Ambassador to India, Nancy J Powell. She resigned as ambassador and went through immigration the same way she would any other US citizen upon her return to the US.

In a show of defiance, Delhi Police erected barricades in front of the US Embassy in New Delhi, and associated institutions and organizations were subject to restrictions. Singh continued to oppose becoming a US ally despite losing the subsequent election six months later. He instead chose to temporarily put the border dispute aside in favor of pursuing a policy that promoted economic development through partnerships with China.

Conversely, Modi’s policy aimed at becoming a steadfast ally and partner of the US, which was intended to serve India’s interests, has proven to be fundamentally misguided. India’s national priorities have been squandered and given up by the ongoing border tensions with China. Modi has come to understand the truth in Kissinger’s words about the dangers of being America’s friend.

One of the worst decades in India’s history in terms of international relations was witnessed by the first and second terms of Modi’s administration. India has experimented with international and geopolitical strategies for unprecedented opportunity costs during this time. Modi is shifting from the US to China in his third term, aiming to change course.

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Trump or Harris, US-India relations can’t afford to drift – Asia Times

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This article originally appeared on Pacific Forum, and it has since been republished with authority. Read the original below.

In one of the most contentious White House elections in recent memory, the US is only a few days away from electing its 47th leader. Countries around the world closely monitor the results every four centuries as the American public casts their ballots to choose the people who best serve their interests.

The impact of this vote on foreign policy cannot be ignored, even though the primary focus of the American presidential election is on social and economic issues that immediately affect the lives of the Americans. Given America’s social, economic, and surveillance traces across the world, foreign policy matters significantly in the US vote.

An extraordinary time shattered the election campaign, opening the earth to a new electoral competition between former president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, even as the rest of the world considered the benefits and drawbacks of a Trump movie or a second word for President Joe Biden. A Trump 2.0 is the cause of a lot of stress and tension around the world, despite the uncertainty surrounding a Harris administration.

Regardless of who wins in November, there is a sense of comparative calm and trust in Delhi that the bilateral relationship between India and the US has bipartisan help.

The Delhi-Washington collaboration could be characterized as a political Goldilocks with an untapped proper alignment to counter China’s extensive and assertive rise, reshaping the Indo-Pacific’s security and economic landscape. From business to engineering, and Taiwan to Tibet, China is on incident style with India, the US, and their like-minded lovers.

The US and India have a favorable environment thanks to the corporate principles, which cover both military and non-military matters.

A quick glance at the joint statements from bilateral leadership meetings or the fact sheets from multilateral summits like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (” Quad” ) reveal engagements across the spectrum, from defense to infrastructure, from new technologies to public health, and from space to maritime security.

No day for proper fall

It is obvious that Washington and Delhi prioritized this marriage highly. The difficulty will be in navigating the tensions between delivering agreements and turning convergences into assistance.

Who will win the election in Washington will have the task of moving this marriage ahead while addressing sporadic annoyances and preventing operational risks.

Beyond its conventional group of allies, Washington maintains and envisions a relationship with Delhi. But, Delhi and Washington’s political imperatives will place them on proper axes that might challenge alignment and stifle traction.

The second-order result of individual foreign policy decisions needs to be handled keeping in mind the larger image of a “free, available, equitable and rules-based” get in the Indo-Pacific.

For example, the Delhi-Washington tango’s growing US-Russian animosity and the growing Sino-Russian ally create a more sophisticated complex powerful of commission and omission.

Besides, the US-China opposition is global in scope, while the India-China contest is a local one, more concentrated in western South Asia and the sea Indian Ocean area.

Both Washington and Delhi agree that collaborating and utilizing one another’s capabilities and intentions to address the China problem is beneficial. However, both also employ their own playbooks of “de-risking without decoupling” from China.

Therefore, whether India is a good bet for Washington vis-à-vis China and vice-versa will remain a pivot point in India-US engagement.

Delivering the deliverables

The most significant impact of cooperation in this area is probably the defense sector cooperation.

Both sides demonstrate a willingness to go above and beyond to improve ties between the two, which include co-development and co-production. Given the private sector’s growing involvement in India’s defense modernization, there are significant links between the two nations ‘ defense industrial conclaves.

Initiatives like the India-US Defense Industrial Roadmap and India-US Defense Acceleration Ecosystem ( INDUS-X ) are significant milestones in this effort because the budding synergy needs to lead to timely deliveries for induction into India’s armed forces.

Two new agreements have been signed, one relating to ensuring resilience of supply chains to meeting national security demands, namely&nbsp, Security of Supply Arrangement&nbsp, ( SOSA ) and a memorandum of agreement regarding&nbsp, Assignment of Liaison Officers&nbsp, to increase interoperability between the two militaries.

Moreover, overarching agreements like the&nbsp, Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology&nbsp, (iCET ) show a multi-sectoral and multi-agency partnership cutting across commercial and military technologies that are going to shape the security and economics of the 21st century.

Trade and technology will be increasingly intertwined in times to come and a new&nbsp, memorandum of understanding&nbsp, aims to strengthen supply chains for lithium, cobalt, and other critical minerals to be used in green energy transition efforts such as electric vehicles. A Harris and Trump presidency may have a more significant impact on the trade front.

Delhi would have to prepare for trade agreements with strong climate and environment components if Harris wins. On the other hand, a Trump 2.0 will most likely be more hostile toward multilateralism and focused on reciprocity of trade and tariffs, regardless of allies and adversaries. Trump, during his presidency, and more recently, as well, has often called out India as a “very big abuser” of tariffs.

Global aspirations and regional challenges

Regional challenges closer to home in its neighborhood throw up more looming challenges as India attempts to take over the global south and finds itself at the center of many pressing global issues.

The volatile political climate in Myanmar, the chaotic regime change in Bangladesh, the foreign policy choices of neighboring Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, and the Maldives, as well as the uncertain transition in Afghanistan, will necessitate sober discussions between Washington and Delhi.

Although the geopolitics and geoeconomics of South Asia are generally understood as being related to the India-China conflict, the US’s role is significant because it is a distant power in terms of geography but not in terms of strategy.

How the region fits into the India-US partnership will be a crucial issue for the next American presidency as Washington navigates South Asia following 20 years of shaping its regional policy through the Afghanistan lens.

More specifically, it will be important to discuss how Washington and Delhi collaborate on financing and building infrastructure in the region, and how both sides would coordinate efforts to improve maritime security in the Indian Ocean region.

The India-US relationship, currently called a defining partnership of the 21st&nbsp, century, has seen all kinds of highs and lows in its journey. It would have been difficult to imagine the level of cooperation the two countries had had in all sectors and domains two decades ago.

However, the relationship between these two complex democracies, each with its own unique worldviews and priorities, will also experience a number of ups and downs in the years to come.

Moreover, the world is going through seismic geopolitical, geo-economic, and technological transitions. The key to putting together a partnership that is aspirational yet grounded in realpolitik will be to use the political support on both sides and the institutional links built over the years.

Monish Tourangbam&nbsp, ( [email protected] ) &nbsp, is director at the Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies (KIIPS), India.

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