South Asia – Page 15

New beginning or dismal end for the Belt and Road?

On: November 25, 2023

In: Asia

Not so long ago, countries were ecstatic about the potential of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a mega-infrastructure scheme launched in 2013 that would connect the world through ports, power grids, railways, roads and telecommunications networks.

Western pundits worried that BRI projects were pulling countries into China’s orbit, empowering Chinese companies and birthing a Sinocentric global order.

For many, it was obvious the road was speeding along as “evidenced” by China’s investments, loans or grants ranging from hundreds of billions to, supposedly, the low trillions of dollars.

Commentators often mixed distinct kinds of monies, classifying loans to countries like Venezuela as BRI loans, equating money invested in or lent to BRI participant countries as BRI money, or labeling projects with no connectivity features as BRI projects. China facilitated these misjudgments by not producing an authoritative BRI project list.

The BRI, initially consisting of the land-based Silk Road Economic Belt and the Maritime Silk Road Initiative, only raised more concern as it repeatedly broke geographic boundaries, reaching into the Pacific Islands, the Arctic and even outer space.

But one current refrain is that the BRI is falling short of its goals. In fact, before the Third BRI Forum held in Beijing in October 2023, some analysts proclaimed the BRI’s downfall. One only need look at Kenya, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Zambia and perhaps Malaysia to see the dismal state of the BRI.

Italy has opted out and Greece is allegedly no longer enthusiastic, despite the successes of Athens’ BRI-linked Piraeus port. Driven by domestic economic constraints, financial problems with BRI participants and project loans, as well as political pushback from the West, BRI investment and contracting are shrinking.

A Chinese worker carries materials for the first rail line linking China to Laos, a key part of Beijing’s Belt and Road project across the Mekong, in Luang Prabang, Laos, May 8, 2020. Photo: Asia Times Files / AFP / Aidan Jones

Facing an uncertain future, another popular contemporary refrain is that the BRI is being rebooted. Beijing has shifted towards what analysts characterize as a “smaller, greener and more beautiful” initiative featuring solar and wind power, ICT infrastructure and ports.

As for the supposed geopolitical ambitions embodied within the BRI, the situation looks rather bleak for China with fewer heads of state attending the October 2023 BRI Forum.

It is easy to paint the current state of the BRI as off-course when it is measured against aspirations it was never likely to reach. Those analyzing the BRI have long pointed out that the complexities of infrastructure, as well as the economic and political shortcomings of numerous BRI participant countries, would adversely affect the BRI’s progress.

Domestic political changes flowing from elections, center–local divides, civil war, terrorism and public protests have time after time stunted, delayed and prevented the realization of BRI projects.

A “smaller, greener and more beautiful” BRI will come against these challenges, which will be coupled with China’s economic downturn, the financial situation of some BRI participants and European disinterest or opposition.

Many of the factors that powered the BRI in the past will continue to power it in the future. China has long been seeking greater market access, pathways to acquire natural resources and ways to improve the security of its resource and trade flows.

As well, Beijing has long searched for ways to deploy its massive foreign currency reserves, internationalize its currency, create opportunities for its companies and promote Chinese tech and standards.

These impetuses will continue to drive the BRI and one that is not necessarily small, green or beautiful. To think that green and ICT-related infrastructure projects will be small ignores reality — green energy projects can easily run into the billions of dollars and hydropower, while green in theory, is not necessarily “beautiful” or entirely non-polluting.

The Khunjerab Pass, starting point of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Photo: Asia Times — The Khunjerab Pass, starting point of the Belt and Road Initiative’s China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Photo: Asia Times

The BRI is not all about “push.” There remain dozens of countries such as Cambodia, Greece and Malaysia continuing to welcome traditional, large-scale BRI projects. The BRI is also much more than Africa or South Asia — the Middle East, for instance, is a place where the BRI will thrive.

The future of the BRI likely will entail a mix of big and small, green and polluting, beautiful and ugly. The key for businesspeople and policymakers is to ignore the generalizations present in many discussions about the BRI. Instead, they should undertake nuanced analyses attentive to regional and national political and economic conditions as well as sectoral dynamics.

They also need to be cautious about making decisions based on the data points of the day as opposed to larger trends that will affect their countries or companies over the medium- to long-term. Only then can policymakers and businesspeople take a smart and targeted approach in dealing with the BRI.

Jean-Marc F Blanchard is Executive Director at the Mr & Mrs S.H. Wong Center for the Study of Multinational Corporations, Palo Alto, United States.

This article was originally published by East Asia Forum and is republished under a Creative Commons license.

Pakistanâs Kalash people are afraid for their future after Taliban attack

By: Marcus Ching

On: November 23, 2023

In: Asia

Shaira and her child in traditional colourful clothing

By Farhat Javed

BBC Urdu, the Kalash valley

Nestled in Pakistan’s Hindu Kush mountains, the remote Kalash valley is a popular tourist destination. But a recent attack by Taliban militants has left people living there afraid for their future.

“It was 04:00 in the morning when we saw men coming down the mountain with turbans on their head, backpacks, weapons and belts of bullets around their bodies,” says a Kalashi shepherd, Michael (not his real name).

He was taking sheep and goats to a nearby pasture with his father, uncle and a friend when the militants attacked their valley.

“There were Taliban everywhere, behind every rock and every tree. One was just a few steps away from me. There must have been more than 200 of them,” Michael recalls. “We hid under big rocks and stayed there for 48 hours.”

The Pakistani authorities sent in forces and say five security officers and at least 20 Taliban militants were killed in the fighting that lasted two days.

“There was an unusual stillness. Everyone was worried and scared. It felt like a war zone,” says Shaira, a mother of two, as she recalls hundreds of troops, military vehicles, drones and attack helicopters hovering over the valley.

Attacks like this have become more frequent in Pakistan in recent months, and although this assault in September took residents by surprise, sources within the government have confirmed they received information and intercepted a phone call hinting at an imminent attack at least a week before it happened.

The Pakistani Taliban, or TTP, said they carried out the assault, reportedly from over the border in neighbouring Afghanistan.

Pakistan has consistently accused Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban of providing shelter to TTP members in provinces along its border with Pakistan and this is seen as one of the most significant cross-border attacks since the Taliban retook control in Kabul in 2021. The Taliban government denies the allegations it provides sanctuary to militants.

Authorities in Pakistan believe the aim of the assault was to take control of the strategically-important Kalash valley.

“Its capture would have given the TTP what they want, causing fear among people and a message to the world that they are strong,” says Muhammad Ali, the district’s deputy commissioner. But he points out: “Our security forces didn’t let that happen.”

The attack has left the indigenous Kalashi community, 400km (250 miles) from Pakistan’s capital Islamabad, feeling tense.

The people in this valley – who claim they are descended from Alexander the Great despite evidence that they are indigenous to South Asia – are renowned for their culture, religion and traditions that are distinct from Pakistan’s Muslim majority.

But the joy they display in their dances and music has been overshadowed by a sense of fear, uncertainty and despair.

As Shaira cradles her one-year-old daughter, she explains that she came back to Kalash after finishing her university degree “to preserve their culture and unique religion”.

The community worships a pantheon of gods and goddesses, holding festivals to mark the seasons and their links with farming. At these times women may declare their love, elope or even end their marriages.

But living in a maze of tiny houses, the people here also face challenges and threats of forced conversions by both Muslim and Christian groups.

And they now fear the latest attack represents a new wave of threats that could spell the end of their community. Many, like Shaira, are wondering what their options are. Where should they go if the Taliban attack again?

“Everyone said the Taliban had come for us Kalashis. They’ll kill us or force us to change our religion,” she says. “We don’t have any resources to leave, so we have to stay in Kalash, dead or alive.”

They are worried that attacks like this could also affect their livelihoods. The Kalash valley attracts a significant number of visitors each year from Pakistan and beyond.

The clash brought both tourism and shepherding in the area to a standstill, as the valley was closed for days. Foreign tourists were evacuated, locals were instructed to stay away, and all roads leading to the valley were barricaded. Troops were deployed, and the pastures became no-go areas.

Kai Meera in colourful traditional clothing

“Tourists benefit us all, and after this attack, we faced shortages of essentials,” says Kai Meera, a community leader. “We were also unable to take our livestock to the pastures, and there was a complete loss of income.”

After the attack, Pakistan announced the closure of two main border crossings with Afghanistan, which resulted in substantial losses in trade revenue. Thousands of people were stranded at the border crossings for days.

Michael managed to leave his hiding place under the rock after 48 uncomfortable and terrified hours. His body had been bent over for so long he couldn’t walk for a while.

Now back in his village, fear is a constant in his life.

“They [militants] used to cross the border in the past, but they would snatch our livestock at gunpoint and go back. This time they came to take our valley away. I think they’ll come again,” he says.

The deputy commissioner has tried to reassure Michael and the rest of the community, saying: “While it may take some time for the fear to subside, we have decided to fortify the border, increase the number of checkpoints, and bolster border security.”

Shaira shares a parting thought as she leaves her baby sleeping soundly and heads to the fields to gather crops before the winter falls: “War is war, whether it’s the Taliban or someone else. In the end, it’s us, the unarmed people, who suffer and die.”

Climate change: The villagers building 100ft ice towers

By: Marcus Ching

On: November 22, 2023

In: Asia

Environmental photographer and writer Arati Kumar-Rao travels across South Asia in all seasons to chronicle the subcontinent’s changing landscape. Here, in photos and in her own words words, she captures the increasing threat climate change poses to the lives and livelihoods of the Ladakhi people, who face an uncertain future below the melting glaciers of the Himalayan mountains. Kumar-Rao is one of this year’s Climate Pioneers on the BBC 100 Women list.

The night of 5 August 2010 is still fresh in the memory of the people of Ladakh, in northern India, when it felt like a cloud had burst over the area surrounding the capital, Leh.

One year’s worth of rain fell on the cold desert in just two apocalyptic hours. Massive walls of sludge swallowed up everything in their path. Scrambling people were buried mid-stride under a thick brown-grey mass.

Several hundred people were never found after that fateful night.

The Ladakh region, the northernmost plateau of India, sits more than 3,000m (9,850ft) above sea level. The Greater Himalayan Range shields the region from the annual monsoon that much of the rest of India relies on.

Until recently, Ladakh has been bathed by the sun for 300 days per year, while barely four inches of rain have fallen on the vast landscape of rock and mountains. Floods were virtually unheard of.

The destructive flood of 2010 was followed in quick succession by further floods in 2012, 2015, and most recently, in 2018.

Something that had not happened in seven decades, occurred four times in fewer than 10 years. Such freak weather events are a result of climate change, experts say.

A decade and a half ago there used to be a regular rhythm to the Ladakhi land, which provided villagers with a steady water supply. Winter snow melted to feed streams, just as meltwater from the glaciers trickled down and provided water for farming and agriculture in springtime.

However, climate change has seen average winter temperatures in Ladakh rise by about 1C over the last 40 years.

Snowfall has become increasingly unpredictable and glaciers have retreated farther up towards the peaks, or disappeared altogether.

I first visited Ladakh in 2018. I returned in 2019, and again in spring this year – kept away in the interim by the coronavirus pandemic. The difference was startling.

The snow now melts faster, leaving villagers with little to no water by spring. Glaciers are now so high up in the mountains that they melt later in the year. Ladakhi springtime – once lush and fertile – was dry and silent this year.

A lack of water has led to a decrease in meadows – keeping large flocks of pashmina goats is becoming unviable. The Changpa herders are giving up their traditional livelihoods and migrating to other parts of India or to Leh looking for non-pastoral work.

Farmers, unable to find water for their barley and apricots, are leaving in droves.

Despite the destruction caused by climate change, there is hope for this isolated region.

On my second visit to Ladakh in March 2019, I met engineer Sonam Wangchuk. He told me that on a drive through the valleys in 2013 he noticed a large mound of unmelted ice under a bridge, sheltered from the sun. The sight of that small tower of ice triggered an idea.

“High school maths tells us that a cone is the simple answer,” he grinned at me.

Wangchuk wanted to help villagers freeze water in winter which could be saved for use in spring. Freezing it in the shape of a cone would maximise the volume of ice per square metre of surface area exposed to the sun and lengthen the amount of time it would take to melt.

The engineer assembled a team of local people and began experimenting, looking for the best way of creating cones of ice. Eventually, they found the right formula.

After piping water from a mountain stream down into the valley, the group forced water to flow up a vertical pipe with a fine nozzle attached to its end. The water went up the pipe and exited via the nozzle as a fine spray.

In night-time temperatures of -30C, the spray froze as it exited the pipe. Gradually, as more and more water emerged as spray and turned to ice, the edifice began to resemble a cone.

Now named ice stupas, after Buddhist places of meditation, they have gained popularity all across Ladakh. The structures, some of which tower over 100ft (30m), provide a water supply for a community that has seen climate change disrupt its natural resources.

They also provide a surprising source of entertainment – hotly contested competitions for the tallest stupa take place annually.

But the injustice of the situation is not lost on either Wangchuk or his stupa-building friends. Ladakhi people are paying the price for carbon emissions made elsewhere.

“It is not enough that we keep coming up with technical innovations, keep adapting, keep solving problems,” Wangchuk tells me.

“I want to use ice stupas as much to sensitise the world about the need for a change in behaviour, as I want to use it to provide water for us.”

As a photographer who has travelled across vast spaces of south Asia, I know Ladakh is not alone in its fight.

For the first time in history India and its neighbouring countries, China and Pakistan, face a common enemy – climate change. It has the potential to destroy river basins and threaten the most populated regions of the world. It may be time to come together to shore up resilience against this threat to survival.

Produced by Rebecca Thorn, BBC 100 Women.

BBC 100 Women names 100 inspiring and influential women around the world every year. Follow BBC 100 Women on Instagram and Facebook. Join the conversation using #BBC100Women.

Pakistan MIRV test heats up South Asia’s arms race

By: Bolen C

On: November 15, 2023

In: Asia

Pakistan’s recent missile technology advancement, shown by the Ababeel medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) test launch with multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV) capabilities, signifies a pivotal development in South Asia’s strategic balance and defense capabilities.

The International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) reports that Pakistan last month conducted its second test launch of the Ababeel MRBM designed to carry MIRVs, moving a step closer to achieving the enhanced capability to penetrate India’s nascent missile defenses.

IISS says that the recent test at Sakhi Sarwar range in Punjab province followed the 2005 India-Pakistan agreement on pre-notification for ballistic-missile tests, which included seven Notice to Air Missions issued by Pakistan. It mentions the test was conducted to revalidate various design and technical parameters and evaluate the performance of different subsystems.

IISS notes that the Ababeel is one of two nuclear-capable MRBMs that Pakistan is developing, with the main difference being its MIRV capability, which increases deterrence by increasing the chances of penetrating India’s emergent ballistic-missile defenses.

The institute says that India is also preparing its own MIRV capability, linked to its Agni VI intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that is designed primarily to penetrate Chinese missile defenses and not for use against Pakistan.

MIRVs were first developed in the 1960s to enable a missile to deliver multiple nuclear warheads to different targets, in contrast to traditional missiles that carry one warhead. While the original MIRVs were not designed to penetrate missile defenses, they are much harder to intercept than the traditional missile type.

For instance, the US LGM-30G Minuteman III, the main component of the US ground-based nuclear deterrent, can carry three Mk 21 MIRVs, each with a W87 thermonuclear warhead with a 375 to 475 kiloton yield. MIRVs can also be launched from an ICBM at different speeds and directions, and some MIRV-capable missiles can hit targets 1,500 kilometers apart.

However, MIRVs have their strategic pitfalls. In a 2014 article for the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Zachary Keck mentions that MIRVs can destabilize since they emphasize first strikes, as one missile can hit multiple targets.

In connection with that, Keck says MIRVs enable countries to launch various warheads at a single target, with numerous lower-yield warheads being more destructive than a single warhead with an equivalent yield. He also notes that MIRVs make it easier to defeat missile defense systems.

Keck says for all those reasons MIRVs make small and medium-sized nuclear arsenals highly vulnerable to a decapitation first strike, presenting significant capability loss with each launch platform destroyed.

He says that a rival’s acquisition of MIRV capability forces nuclear states to significantly expand and disperse their arsenals to maintain a secure second-strike capability. In addition, he notes that MIRVs create the need to build more nuclear weapons to arm missiles.

In line with those reasons, Pakistan has a multifaceted rationale for acquiring MIRVs. Missile Threat noted in July 2022 that Pakistan’s strategic forces, consisting mainly of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) and MRBMs, allow it to target almost any point in India, offsetting the significant conventional military asymmetry between the two rivals.

Response to ‘Cold Start’?

Islamabad’s MIRV program may be a response to New Delhi’s “Cold Start” military doctrine, formulated in response to past border conflicts with Pakistan and to alleged Pakistan state-sponsored terrorism.

Indian military exercises, 2004-2010, testing the Cold Start doctrine. Map: ResearchGate

In a December 2022 article in the peer-reviewed BTTN Research Journal, Saba Hanif explains that India developed its Cold Start doctrine in 2004 to swiftly capture small parts of Pakistani territory around 50 to 60 kilometers deep to use as leverage in post-conflict negotiations, prevent an international response and avoid Pakistani nuclear retaliation.

Hanif says that Cold Start involves using eight division-sized integrated battle groups with mechanized infantry, artillery and tanks working with the Indian Air Force to achieve rapid mobilization and shallow territorial gains.

Given Pakistan’s smaller military and limited nuclear arsenal of approximately 165 warheads, it may opt to use MIRVs as tactical battlefield weapons against India’s superior conventional military.

Pakistan may also be concerned about the survivability of its relatively small nuclear force, with MIRVs maximizing retaliation capability for every launch platform and missile that survives initial Indian strikes.

However, Pakistan’s MIRV developments may complicate South Asia’s nuclear triangle dynamics involving Pakistan, India, and China.

In a June 2020 Stimson article, Monish Tourangbam says that the proximity of these nuclear-armed countries raises the risk of nuclear warfare or a two-front war for India in the event of a military standoff.

Tourangbam characterizes this triangle as Pakistan’s efforts to bridge its power asymmetry with India through nuclear deterrence, Chinese support and India’s concerns over China’s growing military capabilities and influence in the region.

However, he notes that the strategic alliance between China and Pakistan is more implicit than explicit, with no clear commitment to mutual defense in case of a war involving either country.

Given that, a May 2022 report by the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) highlights that China, India and Pakistan have increased their nuclear arsenal and military technologies, leading to a security dilemma and a higher risk of nuclear conflict.

The report mentions that the 2019 Pulwama-Balakot crisis highlighted the future of India-Pakistan strife, with both nations drawing lessons that could escalate future concerns. It also notes the 2020-2021 Ladakh border clashes between India and China marked a significant deterioration in India-China ties.

An Indian soldier on a vehicle in Ganderbal district after border clashes with China in Ladakh. Photo: Asia Times Files / NurPhoto / Muzamil Mattoo

In line with that, Daniel Markey notes in a February 2023 USIP article that South Asia’s strategic stability is increasingly precarious due to geopolitical changes and evolving military technologies, including expanding nuclear arsenals and advanced delivery systems.

Markey notes several risks to the region’s strategic stability, such as nuclear escalation from accidents like India’s March 2022 Brahmos missile misfire into Pakistan, the potential for crisis escalation from terrorism or border disputes and deteriorating India-Pakistan relations exacerbated by domestic politics and external factors like the Taliban’s influence in Afghanistan.

He notes that heightened India-China border tensions and their growing military capabilities create fears of conventional and nuclear escalation, contributing to a “cascading security dilemma” where defensive measures by one state spur insecurities and arms advancements in others, potentially leading to an unpredictable and dangerous South Asia arms race.

Chikungunya vaccine: US approves first shot against mosquito-borne virus

By: Marcus Ching

On: November 10, 2023

In: Asia

By Nicholas Yong

BBC News, Singapore

The US Food and Drug Administration has approved the world’s first vaccine for chikungunya, which it sees as an “emerging global health threat”.

The mosquito-borne disease causes fever and joint pains and can be fatal to newborns.

The FDA’s approval is expected to speed up the vaccine’s global rollout.

This year, about 440,000 chikungunya cases, including 350 deaths, have been reported as of September.

There is currently no specific drug to treat chikungunya. South America and South Asia have seen the most number of cases this year.

The vaccine named Ixchiq has been approved for those aged 18 and above and are at high risk of contracting the disease, the FDA said on Friday. It was developed by Europe’s Valneva and will be administered in a single shot.

“Infection with chikungunya virus can lead to severe disease and prolonged health problems, particularly for older adults and individuals with underlying medical conditions,” senior FDA official Peter Marks said.

At least five million chikungunya cases have been reported since 2008, the FDA said. Other symptoms include rashes, headaches and muscle pain. Joint pains can persist for months or even years.

People in tropical and subtropical regions of Africa, Southeast Asia, and parts of the Americas are at the highest risk of infection because mosquitos carrying the chikungunya virus are endemic in these areas.

“However, chikungunya virus has spread to new geographical areas causing a rise in global prevalence of the disease,” the FDA said.

Data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control showed that Brazil has had the highest number of cases so far this year with 218,613.

More than 93,000 cases have also been reported in India, where the capital Delhi saw a large outbreak in 2016.

How the war on Gaza has stalled India’s new economic corridor

By: Bolen C

On: November 10, 2023

In: Asia

On September 9 during the Group of Twenty meeting in New Delhi, the governments of seven countries and the European Union signed a memorandum of understanding to create an India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).

Only three of the countries (India, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) would be directly part of this corridor, which was to begin in India, go through the Persian Gulf, and terminate in Greece.

The European countries (France, Germany and Italy) as well as the EU joined this endeavor because they expected the IMEC to be a trade route for their goods to go to India and for them to access Indian goods at what they hoped would be a reduced cost.

The United States, which was one of the initiators of the IMEC, pushed it as a way both to isolate China and Iran and to hasten the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

It seemed like a perfect instrument for Washington: Sequester China and Iran, bring Israel and Saudi Arabia together, and deepen ties with India that seemed to have been weakened by New Delhi’s reluctance to join the United States in its policy regarding Russia.

But Israel’s war on the Palestinians in Gaza has changed the entire equation and stalled the IMEC. It is now inconceivable for Saudi Arabia and the UAE to enter such a project with the Israelis. Public opinion in the Arab world is red-hot, with inflamed anger at the indiscriminate bombardment by Israel and the catastrophic loss of civilian life.

Regional countries with close relations with Israel, such as Jordan and Turkey, have had to harden their rhetoric against Israel.

In the short term at least, it is impossible to imagine the implementation of the IMEC.

Pivot to Asia

Two years before China inaugurated its “One Belt, One Road” initiative, the United States had already planned a private-sector-funded trade route to link India to Europe and to tighten the links between Washington and New Delhi.

In 2011, then-US secretary of state Hillary Clinton gave a speech in Chennai, India, where she spoke of the creation of a New Silk Road that would run from India through Pakistan and into Central Asia.

This new “international web and network of economic and transit connections” would be an instrument for the United States to create a new intergovernmental forum and a “free-trade zone” in which the US would be a member (in much the same way as the US is part of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation grouping, or APEC).

The New Silk Road was part of a wider “pivot to Asia,” as US president Barack Obama put it. This “pivot” was designed to check the rise of China and to prevent its influence in Asia.

Clinton’s article in Foreign Policy (“America’s Pacific Century,” October 11, 2011) suggested that this New Silk Road was not antagonistic to China. However, this rhetoric of the “pivot” came alongside the US military’s new AirSea Battle concept that was designed around direct conflict between the United States and China (the concept built on a 1999 Pentagon study called “Asia 2025,” which noted that “the threats are in Asia”).

Two years later, the Chinese government said it would build a massive infrastructure and trade project called “One Belt, One Road,” which would later be called the Belt and Road Initiative. Over the next 10 years, from 2013 to 2023, the BRI investments totaled US$1.04 trillion spread out over 148 countries (three-quarters of the countries in the world).

In this short period, the BRI project has made a considerable mark on the world, particularly on the poorer nations of Africa, Asia and Latin America, where the BRI has made investments to build infrastructure and industry.

Chastened by the growth of the BRI, the United States attempted to block it through various instruments: the América Crece for Latin America and the Millennium Challenge Corporation for South Asia. The weakness in these attempts was that both relied upon funding from an unenthusiastic private sector.

Complications of IMEC

Even before the Israeli bombardment of Gaza, IMEC faced several serious challenges.

First, the attempt to isolate China appeared illusory, given that the main Greek port in the corridor, at Piraeus, is managed by the China Ocean Shipping Company (COSCO), and that the Dubai ports have considerable investment from China’s Ningbo-Zhoushan port and the Zhejiang Seaport.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are now members of the BRICS+, and both countries are participants in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Second, the entire IMEC process is reliant upon private-sector funding. The Adani Group, which has close ties to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and has come under the spotlight for fraudulent practices, already owns the Mundra port in Gujarat and the Haifa port in Israel, and seeks to take a share in the port at Piraeus.

In other words, the IMEC corridor is providing geopolitical cover for Adani’s investments, from Greece to Gujarat.

Third, the sea lane between Haifa and Piraeus would go through waters contested between Turkey and Greece. This “Aegean dispute” has provoked the Turkish government to threaten war if Greece goes through with its designs.

Fourth, the entire project relied on the “normalization” between Saudi Arabia and Israel, an extension of the Abraham Accords that drew Bahrain, Morocco and the UAE to recognize Israel in August 2020.

In July 2022, India, Israel, the UAE and the United States formed the I2U2 Group, with the intention, among other things, to “modernize infrastructure” and to “advance low-carbon development pathways” through “private-enterprise partnerships.” This was the precursor of IMEC.

Neither “normalization” with Saudi Arabia nor advancement of the I2U2 process between the UAE and Israel seem possible in this climate. Israel’s bombardment of the Palestinians in Gaza has frozen this process.

Previous Indian trade-route projects, such as the International North-South Trade Corridor (with India, Iran and Russia) and the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (led by India and Japan), have not gone from paper to port for a host of reasons.

These at least had the merit of being viable. IMEC will suffer the same fate as these corridors, to some extent due to Israel’s bombing of Gaza but also to Washington’s fantasy that it can “defeat” China in an economic war.

This article was produced by Globetrotter, which provided it to Asia Times.

Vijay Prashad is an Indian historian, editor, and journalist. He is a writing fellow and chief correspondent at Globetrotter. He is an editor of LeftWord Books and the director of Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research.

Repatriation centre closed

By: Barkar Nash

On: November 6, 2023

In: South-East Asia

The majority of Thai staff in Israel decide to remain.

Following reports that more than 20,000 Siamese workers in the nation have chosen to stay despite the escalating issue, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs says it is still committed to facilitating the relocation of Thai people from Israel.

Before the cross-border raids by Hamas troops on October 7th, there were about 30, 000 Vietnamese workers in Israel, according to official statistics.

The cooperation center established at the Royal Thai Embassy in Tel Aviv was shut down as a result of the sharp decline in the number of Thai employees seeking relocation from Israel in recent days.

On Sunday, the final few workers who had requested relocation arrived in Thailand.

Nine of the center’s 14 Ministry of Foreign Affairs representatives have also been called back back.

They were greeted by Sarun Charoensuwan, the everlasting director of international affairs, and Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister.

They were thanked by Mr. Parnpree for their commitment to the goal during the crisis.

He stated,” I wanted to speak with those who gave their lives to keep us informed of the situation.”

From October 30 to November 2, Mr. Parnpree personally traveled to Qatar and Egypt in an effort to price Hamas-held Thai people.

He met the Egyptian foreign affairs minister, the Foreign Affairs Minister of Iran, who was also in Qatar, and the excellent minister of Qatar.

Pongsathorn Chuthasamit, the chairman of the Reception Division at the Department of Protocol and one of those called back from Tel Aviv, stated that he had to work with Israeli government to transport Thai workers to the closest evacuation center.

Five soldiers remained in Israel to assist with the relocation of Thai victims once they are released by their prisoners, he said, even though the majority of the group has since returned to Bangkok.

Hamas are already holding hostages 24 Thai citizens in total. To day, 19 Thais have been hurt in the battle, and the death toll has increased to 34.

Mr. Pongsathorn claims that the leaders are also prepared to assist the more than 20,000 employees who have decided to remain in Israel should the need arise.

Despite the cooperation center’s resolution, he assured the embassy that it would still be willing to help.

The Department of South Asia, Middle East, and African Affairs’ young minister Noraset Srimayok expressed his gratitude for the opportunity to arrange for these workers’ return. He described helping with the repatriation effort as a” unique” experience.

All parties involved are making every effort to discuss the transfer of Thai victims, according to Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin on Monday.

He claimed to have spoken with Songwit Noonpakdi, the head of the defense forces, who informed him of studies indicating the Vietnamese captives were still alive and well.

They are awaiting the battle to end. A glass for bringing the victims out will be provided by a peace, even for just one or two days, he said.

In addition to the 15, 000 ringgit they will get from the security account for foreign workers, the government has agreed, according to Labour Minister Pipat Ratchakitprakarn, to pay the repatriated Thai employees an additional 50, 000 Baht in payment.

The Budget Bureau has been tasked by the government with allocating money from the federal funds; a reply is anticipated somewhere on Tuesday.

” This is in addition to the suggested low-interest loan of up to 150,000 baht to each Thai worker who returned from Israel so they can pay off any debts owed to job brokers or use the money to pursue other careers ,” he said.

In situation they were in danger, he urged Vietnamese employees who chose to stay in Israel to keep in touch with the labor ambassador.

Gaza tragedy a reminder that Hindutva is a major barrier to IMEC

By: Bolen C

On: November 5, 2023

In: Asia

A new economic hall was inaugurated on the outside of the 18th G20 Summit, which was held in New Delhi under the presidency of India. It is a significant trade and investment project known as the India, Middle East, and Europe Economic Corridor( IMEC ).

It departs from India and travels through Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and the Persian Gulf of the Middle East before arriving in Europe via Greek slots.

The Middle East and Europe will be connected by broad territory and maritime transportation thanks to two distinct corridors, according to IMEC. Although many of its specifics are still pending and it is currently only in the form of a memorandum of understanding( MoU ), its estimated cost is US$ 20 billion.

The future of IMEC, but, appears uncertain now that a human tragedy is taking place in Gaza.

India’s preference for Israel

In stark contrast to the history, India this moment sided with Israel and abandoned its previous stance on Palestine. Prime Minister Narendra Modi decided to support Israel shortly after the Palestine-Israel issue erupted, tweeting,” India stands with Israel.”

Later, he spoke with Benjamin Netanyahu, his Israeli rival, and denounced all forms of terrorism. As the prime minister opted to support Israel firmly rather than align his declaration with the two-state solution, this signaled a distinct change from India’s prior stance on the Palestine-Israel discord.

Additionally, he did not denounce Israel’s continued murder of Palestinians. He also did not criticize Israel for the significant civilian casualties in a Arab hospital.

Arindam Bagchi, a spokesperson for the Indian Ministry of External Affairs( MEA ), reaffirmed India’s previous stance, saying that it” believes in its long-standing support in the establishment of an independent, sovereign, and viable state of Palestine.”

The paradox through which India is interacting with the Middle East can be seen in the statements and quick response of the country’s prime minister and the Foreign Affairs Ministry. Pragmatically, India’s growing economic and geopolitical dependence on Israel can be used to explain this change in international policy. That nation is an important trading partner of India, receiving$ 3.94 billion in US imports each year.

turbulence in the Middle East

Without harmony, there can be no financial growth. The IMEC and its successful application in a disturbed area like the Middle East are examples of this. As a result, the continued human tragedy in Gaza has an impact on bilateral trade between Israel and India in addition to casting doubt on the IMEC’s leads.

Anjana Pasricha, a reporter for Voice of America in New Delhi, described the Israel-Hamas conflict as” reality check” and” wake-up call” for IMEC.

Michael Kugleman, the chairman of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington, emphasized that IMEC was not feasible in the unstable Middle East. He said that IMEC” is hardly just a matter of funding challenges, but also of balance and political cooperation.” & nbsp,

Again, it is clear that IMEC cannot be implemented in the Middle East as long as India just supports one position.

A large portion of this financial action was dependent on the long-running normalization of Israel and Saudi Arabia. The US-led Abraham Accord 2.0 is also in disarray following the Israel-Hamas issue.

Manoj Joshi made a remark about this at the Observer Research Foundation, saying that IMEC was started under the assumption that the Middle East was at serenity.

Other than that, IMEC stokes long-standing competitions between Ankara and Athens by avoiding Turkey. India is undoubtedly treading a fine line as it comes across the region’s long-standing conflicts.

Is India overcome the obstacles preventing IMEC and deliver on its financial initiatives in the Middle East? is a pertinent question that is related to this.

Hindutva, a challenge or an answer?

The political beliefs of a state contains the answer to this question. Since the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party( BJP ) came to power, Hindutva, its religio-political philosophy, has infused every endeavor in India, whether it be national or international.

The Modi-led Indian government describes itself as a” spiritual politics.” It claims to be a supporter of the Global South. It aims to promote changes in the world order based on naturalism and democracy while adhering to the old religious origins.

In the current Gaza tragedy, such noble claims should ideally be met with unambiguous support for mankind. Funnily, while, India refused to support a UN resolution calling for an end to the war in Gaza for the first time in its history.

The Modi administration was urged to assist the call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza after American opposition parties strongly criticized this action. They voiced their disapproval by expressing their” shocked” and” ashamed” at this sudden change in Indian foreign policy.

Beyond the rhetorical criticism, the Communist Party of India issued a joint statement in support of the UN’s call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. These actions taken by the opposition parties in India reveal how the political voices feel about India’s stance on the Israel-Hamas issue.

Pragmatically, India is not going to position itself as a reliable responsible customer in the international system if it does not pursue an equal foreign policy. If it wants to establish its status as a state with great humanitarian and democratic values, it takes on specific importance.

Nevertheless, New Delhi’s foreign forays into Hindutva are casting serious doubt on both the excellent and practical principles of its foreign policy. India doesn’t appear to be doing its talking.

The American government decided to make” One Earth, One Family, and One Future” the style of its G20 president at the same conference where IMEC was established. Under Modi’s command, the BJP used the presidency to increase the political stakes in its favor rather than bringing this inclusive and global vision to fruition.

The Ukraine matter was put on hold at the same G20 Summit, which also widened tensions between India and Canada over the Sikh separatist movement and eventually led to an extraordinary diplomatic dispute between the two countries. India also used the G20 president to bring about peace in the disputed places.

In truth, India denies the Kashmiris living under its purview their basic right to self-determination, which is why it did not support the call for a cease-fire in Gaza under an anti-Muslim ruling party in charge of affairs.

The biggest obstacle to the effective implementation of IMEC is the anti-Muslim environment that the BJP, led by Narendara Modi, is fostering in India and projecting worldwide. The alarming rise in anti-Muslim fury and offences in India under the BJP has also been noted by the independent research organization Hindu Watch.

Hindutva-led forays may initially serve the BJP’s political agenda, but in the long run, they cannot guarantee the peace and stability that are essential for the success of financial initiatives, not to mention IMEC.

HK firms mull local expansion

By: Barkar Nash

On: October 29, 2023

In: South-East Asia

PUBLISHED : 30 Oct 2023 at 04:30

Hong Kong companies are showing interest in having manufacturers and logistic firms based in Thailand, according to Thai trade representative Nalinee Taveesin.

Speaking after meeting Ronald Ho, director of the Hong Kong Trade Development Council’s Southeast Asia and South Asia in Bangkok yesterday, Ms Nalinee said Hong Kong has been Thailand’s ally in trade, investment and tourism for a long time.

The meeting was a follow-up to Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin’s visit to Hong Kong to meet potential investors early this month. The meeting also focused on exchanging information and tightening trade relations, she said.

A Covid-19 abated, Hong Kong became interested in expanding its market to Asean, including Thailand, with 30 companies looking to invest and set up production bases and logistics systems in the kingdom, she said.

This cooperation will help Thai businesses, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises and start-ups, acquire channels for product distribution and knowledge development in various fields, including e-commerce.

During the meeting, Mr Ho also invited Mr Srettha to attend the Asian Financial Forum in Beijing in January.

Ms Nalinee also met Kevin Yang, chairman of the Hong Kong Fashion Designers Association, to discuss ways to promote Thai silk in the world market.

Mr Yang suggested Thailand present stories of its silk to the world to show that it is not only used to make clothes but also decorations and furniture through exhibitions.

The design of Thai silk dresses should also reduce the formality to make them more accessible to teenagers, he said.

“Hong Kong is a bridge connecting China with the rest of the world,” Ms Nalinee said. “Hong Kong is also known as a financial and investment hub and a centre of international trade, goods and human resources.”

She added that last year, the trade value between Thailand and Hong Kong was worth about US$11.8 billion.

US-China stuck in a cycle of tit-for-tat ironies

By: Bolen C

On: October 27, 2023

In: Asia

This is the last of three parts. Read part 1 and part 2.

Successful development like China’s leads to a crucial international transition. When countries are poor and weak, they receive special forbearance to encourage their development. All successful developing countries, including the US, stole intellectual property, denied foreigners access to their markets, and heavily subsidized their companies.

Rich countries reluctantly tolerate this and celebrate successful growth in poorer countries. For instance, the US and Europe complained about but took minimal action against Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore during the early and middle levels of their development. There is still substantial tolerance for extensive trademark theft by Malaysia, Thailand and India.

In my youth, I bought most of my books as knockoffs at Caves bookstore in Taipei and most of my CDs and video disks as knockoffs in Singapore, and later I bought clothes for my family at the Silk Market in Beijing.

But success brings huge scale that begins to distort global markets and create intolerable damage. That threshold occurred in the 1980s for Japan and later for South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore. Japan’s subsidized and protected cars and consumer electronics threatened to destroy all competitors through unfair competition. The US and EU reacted strongly with tariffs, quotas and other measures.

After a difficult decade, Japan (mostly) accepted the rules of fair competition. Since then, Toyota has often been the world’s biggest car company, but Americans and Europeans welcome Toyotas because Toyota’s victories are achieved by building better cars, not by theft and subsidies.

Developing country victim – or superpower global leader?

China’s success has reached that transition point. Take just one of many examples: When the Chinese fishing industry was small and poor, subsidies were acceptable. Now the coasts of North Korea, Africa and India have very extensive communities that have been impoverished by China’s huge, government-supported fishing fleet.

China’s formerly impoverished fishermen are now depleting fishing stocks and creating hunger along the coasts of South Asia, Africa and Latin America.

Chinese fishing boats heading out to sea from Zhoushan in Zhejiang province. Photo: US Naval Institute

Likewise, when China was poor, copying American CDs brought a noisy but in practice minimal response. But now the costs to the US of intellectual property theft are estimated at hundreds of billions of dollars annually, and even small venture firms report over 100,000 computer intrusions per day from China.

When CATL and Huawei threaten to destroy all European competitors because they have access to all world markets while the Europeans are constrained in China, the damaaged parties react. Chinese spokesmen often characterize these reactions as attempts to keep China down. No, they are demands that China accept the responsibilities of success.

In the view of an exceptional range of neighbors, as well as their friends and allies in the US and EU, China has evolved from a victim to a predator – because policies that were acceptable or tolerable when China was weak cause serious damage to neighbors and global markets now that China has become a great power.

China, a country nearing the World Bank’s “high income” status, now demands all the special privileges of a weak, impoverished country while simultaneously asserting itself as a powerful global leader that will reshape the world into a community of common interest as interpreted by China. This contradiction is unsustainable.

China’s international contradiction reflects a domestic contradiction. In space exploration, in military technology and in many aspects of manufacturing industry, China is a modern superpower. Shanghai, especially Pudong, is a world-leading 21st century city. China’s trains, ports, airports, telecommunications and universal wi-fi access make the United States look backward by comparison.

Simultaneously, however, China’s rural healthcare systems, its systems to care for the aged, its pension systems, its insurance systems and its rural financial systems are those of a developing country rather than a modern superpower. China’s poverty reduction has been one of the greatest triumphs of human history, but the standard of living for several hundred million people remains very low.

A left-behind elder in the Chinese countryside. Photo: Hong Kong Heifer

Its fiscal system, which places most social burdens on local governments while retaining most revenues for the central government, has worked because local governments were allowed to be extremely creative, rule-breaking, financially risky and corrupt. Now, the effort to impose strict rules and financial accountability and to eliminate corruption is mak- ing the skewed distribution of responsibilities and revenues an untenable contradiction.

These contradictions arise because China has chosen in the 21st century to emphasize urban modernity and geopolitical glory over universal well-being for its citizens.

If China refocuses on its domestic social challenges, it will have a solid foundation for global economic and geopolitical competition. If China accepts responsibility for international stability, its fishing boats will be as acceptable globally as France’s. CATL and Huawei could enjoy accepted global preeminence, as Toyota does.

US overreaction

The US overreacts to the damage from these transitions, and it reacts fearfully to a challenge to its global primacy. Its unwillingness to accept massive intellectual property theft and destructive unfair competition is rational and reasonable. But, faced with a rival, America’s status insecurity becomes a triumph of passion over calculation.

US political elites often think and talk as if US global leadership, US global dominance, were some kind of moral right. The prospect that some other system might outperform US-style democracy is perceived as a mortal threat.

Faced with a rival, the US consistently exaggerates the capability and potential – and hence the “threat” – of the rival, which led to the extreme overestimates during the Cold War of the size and capabilities and prospects of the Soviet economy and also, in the late 1970s and 1980s, to extreme fear in important quarters of what was seen as Japan’s imminent superiority.

With Japan four decades ago and with China now, much of the Congressional reaction is populist, emotional, ideological and disproportionately fearful.

Faced with a serious competitor, the US is abandoning its strengths. During the Cold War, the US triumphed by creating a coalition of mutual prosperity, based on the Bretton Woods institutions, which triumphed over a Soviet Union that was autarkic and squeezed its citizens and its allies in the service of an overwhelming priority for the military.

In the competition with China, the US has crippled the expansion and modernization of the Bretton Woods institutions because expansion and reform would greatly enhance China’s role. Ironically, this has created a vacuum into which China’s Belt and Road Initiative, its development banks, its industrial standards and its currency swap system have moved. Every attempt by the US to pretend that China is not a big and equal player has backfired.

The US has undermined its own institutional system, refusing to join the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and the International Criminal Court, preventing the appointment of judges to the World Trade Organization dispute system and abusing WTO rules by falsely arguing that tariffs on things like steel and aluminum are vital matters of national defense.

By abusing the rules-enforcing systems and ignoring the rules, the US undercuts its own core argument for a rules-based system.

By turning inward when the rest of the world is developing the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a more consolidated EU, a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (delayed, for the time being) and the all-time most comprehensive open trade agreement in Africa, the US risks being left behind by the rest of the world.

Leaders of ASEAN member states, Australia, China, Japan, Republic of Korea and New Zealand witnessed the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Agreement online on November 15, 2020. Photo: Asia Times Files

Tariffs on steel, aluminum solar panels and much else damage the US more than China. They exemplify the contradictions at the core of Washington’s China policy.

Even more fundamentally, the US responds to a challenge as if it were primarily a military challenge, whereas the whole experience of twentieth-century geopolitics is that the key to long-run geopolitical success is the economic superiority of oneself and one’s coalition.

Military power of course remains important, but Beijing has seemed to understand better than Washington that the path to global leadership lies primarily through economic preeminence, both domestically and in international relationships. The Belt and Road Initiative embodies that understanding, just as US emphasis on the Bretton Woods system once did.

The two countries’ contrasting strategies in Africa (building infrastructure versus providing anti-terrorist military teams) symbolize that difference. America’s inward turn weakens its own economic performance and increases tensions with allies and partners. Gutting its diplomatic arm, its aid programs and, in 1999, its information service (the United States Information Service) has combined with its meager support for the Bretton Woods institutions to weaken its global leadership role and raise the risk of military conflict.

Ironically, the current administration in Washington justifies all this as “a foreign policy for the middle class,” based on the manufacturing jobs fallacy analyzed at the beginning of this essay.

Tit for tat ironies

In another layer of irony, however, China appears to be duplicating this American error as it raises the priority for security relative to economic development.

For three decades, the leaders of China and America wisely created perhaps the greatest generation of peace and development in human history. There were differences, conflicts, tensions and risks, and there always will be. But currently, both sides are magnifying the problems rather than managing them.

Both sides are avoiding difficult domestic dilemmas by blaming problems on the other. Both are pursuing geopolitical aspirations in ways that harm their domestic economies and popular welfare. In both cases, doing this actually weakens their long-term geopolitical prospects.

A reset will require not just diplomatic adjustments, but also fundamental shifts in the management of domestic politics.

William H Overholt ([email protected]) is senior research fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government.

This article, first published in the China International Strategy Review, is slightly abridged and republished under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 international license.

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How the war on Gaza has stalled India’s new economic corridor

Pivot to Asia

Complications of IMEC

Repatriation centre closed

Gaza tragedy a reminder that Hindutva is a major barrier to IMEC

India’s preference for Israel

turbulence in the Middle East

Hindutva, a challenge or an answer?

HK firms mull local expansion

US-China stuck in a cycle of tit-for-tat ironies

Developing country victim – or superpower global leader?

US overreaction

Tit for tat ironies