Line of Control: How India and Pakistan share one of the world’s most dangerous borders

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Soutik Biswas
AFP A man stands inside his shell-hit home in Salamabad, Uri, near the Line of Control in Indian-administered KashmirAFP

Living along the dangerous de facto border that separates India and Pakistan, or the Line of Control, puts you continuously on the verge of fragile peace or open conflict.

India and Pakistan were once again at risk as a result of the latest escalation following the Pahalgam harm. On both flanks of the LoC, shelters poured down, turning houses into dust and life into data. Pakistan claims 40 civilian deaths, of which at least 16 are reported to have been caused by the shooting, while at least 16 are reported to have been caused by the American side.

Anam Zakaria, a Bangladeshi poet based in Canada, told the BBC,” People on the LoC are subjected to Indian and Pakistani desires and experience the brunt of heated conflicts.”

” Every occasion firing resumes, some are thrust into bunkers, cattle and livelihood are lost, and infrastructure, including homes, hospitals, and schools, is infected. The author of a book on Pakistan-administered Kashmir, Ms. Zakaria, said that the risk and volatility they experience have a significant impact on their daily lives.

India and Pakistan have a 3, 323-kilometer (2, 064-mile ) border, including the LoC, which is 740 kilometers long, and the IB, which is almost 2, 400 kilometers long. Following the initial India-Pakistan war, the LoC was renamed the LoC in 1949 as the Ceasefire Line and was renamed the LoC in accordance with the Simla Agreement of 1972.

One of the world’s most militarized territories is still Kashmir, which is claimed entirely and is administered in large part by both India and Pakistan. The second provocation is always the last one, and conflict always goes unpunished.

According to Happymon Jacob, a professor of foreign policy at Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University ( JNU), “low-level firing to major land grabbing to surgical strikes” are examples of ceasefire violations. ( A land grab might involve forcefully seizing important positions like hilltops, outposts, or buffer zones. )

Some experts regard the LoC as a classic case of a “border drawn in heart, forged through fight.” According to Ms. Zakaria, it is also a series that has been militarized and armed without considering Kashmiris.

Getty Images A man inspects his damaged house in Neelum Valley in Pakistan-administered KashmirGetty Images
South Asia is not unique to these military edges. The” Green Line,” the generally accepted boundary between Israel and the West Bank, is the most well-known, according to Sumantra Bose, a professor of international and comparative politics at the London School of Economics.

Unsurprisingly, the preliminary quiet along the LoC that had existed since the two nuclear-armed neighbors ‘ ceasefire agreement in 2021 quickly lost its luster following the most recent conflicts.

According to Surya Valliappan Krishna of Carnegie India,” the current escalation on the LoC and International Border ( IB ) is significant as it comes after a four-year period of relative peace on the border.”

Crime along the Indian-Pakistani border is not new; India reported 4, 134 breaches in 2001 and 5, 767 in 2002 prior to the stalemate in 2003.

Initial breaches of the 2003 peace, which were minor between 2004 and 2007, were a result, but conflicts resurfaced in 2008 and sharply escalated by 2013.

High levels of discord were present in both the LoC and the IB between 2013 and 2021. A new ceasefire in February 2021 resulted in a steady but fast fall in violations through March 2025.

” We’ve witnessed border populations in the tens of thousands remain displaced for months on end during periods of intense cross-border firing,” says Mr. Krishna. More than 27, 000 people were evacuated from border areas between late September and early December 2016 as a result of cross-border fire and agreement violations.

Getty Images A Kashmiri woman stands inside her shell-damaged home in Salamabad, near the LoC in UriGetty Images

It appears to be getting more and more questionable right then.

Following the Pahalgam attack, India suspended the important Indus Waters Treaty ( IWT), a crucial water-sharing agreement between India and Pakistan. Pakistan reacted by threatening to leave the 1972 Simla Agreement, which established the LoC, even though it hasn’t already completed.

This is important that, in spite of their social differences, both parties agreed to maintain the current LoC, which is the foundation of the Simla Agreement.

According to Mr. Jacob, ceasefire violations along the LoC have not been discussed or discussed in discussions about an escalation of conflict between the two nations for some” interested reason.”

In his book, Line On Fire: Ceasefire Violations and India-Pakistan Escalation Dynamics, Mr. Jacob writes,” It is itself strange how the standard use of high-calibre arms like 105mm cement, 130 and 155mm artillery weapons, and anti-tank guided rockets by two nuclear-capable countries has escaped scholarly attention and plan consideration.

Mr. Jacob points out two possible causes of the violations: Pakistan frequently uses support fire to entice militants into Indian-administered Kashmir, which has experienced an armed uprising against Indian rule for more than three decades. Pakistan, on the other hand, accuses India of firing directly on civil targets.

He contends that regional military relationships are more to blame for ceasefire violations along the India-Pakistan frontier than the result of high-level social strategy.

Field commanders frequently initiate hostilities, occasionally with but frequently without the key approval of the hostilities. He also raises the question of whether the Pakistan Army is the only force responsible for the violations, pointing rather to a complicated combination of local military imperatives and the freedom accorded to frontier forces on both sides.

Some experts believe that it’s time to think about reviving a controversial concept that was put off for almost 20 years: creating a formal, internationally recognized border. Some claim that possibility was not and still isn’t a realistic thing.

Getty Images A resident of Bakoat village walks through the entrance of a bunker prepared for protection from cross-border fireGetty Images

The concept is” fully infeasible, a useless close.” According to Sumantra Bose, American maps have consistently depicted Jammu and Kashmir’s full region as being a part of India.

Making the Line part of the International Border do” for Pakistan mean settling the Kashmir debate, which is Pakistan’s relative of the Holy Grail,” according to India’s chosen words. Over the past seven years, every Pakistani authorities and leader, whether civilian or military, has refrained from doing this.

A Kashmir arrangement requires that the LoC been transformed from an iron curtain of barbed wire, pits, tunnels, and angry militaries to a fabric screen, according to Prof. Bose in his 2003 text Kashmir: Roots of Conflict, Paths to Peace. Realpolitik says that the border must be transcended without being abolished, but it will be permanent ( although likely under a different name ).

However, he told the BBC,” It must be embedded in a larger Kashmir settlement as one pillar of a multi-pillared settlement.”

Turning the LoC into a soft border between 2004 and 2007 was a key component of the burgeoning India-Pakistan peace process in Kashmir, which ultimately failed.

The border has reopened today, breaking the cycle of violence and uncertainty for those who reside in its shadow.

You never know what will occur next, he said. During the recent hostilities, an employee of a hotel in Pakistan-administered Kashmir told BBC Urdu that no one wants to sleep facing the Line of Control tonight.

When your window opens to a battlefield, peace is fragile, and it was a quiet reminder of that.

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Why the mighty Himalayas are getting harder and harder to see

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eleven days before
Navin Singh Khadka

BBC World Service editor, setting

BBC BBC World Service environment correspondent Navin Singh Khadka trekking with mountains visible behind himBBC

I watched the Himalayas growing up in Nepal’s money. I’ve missed sweeping, breathtaking views of some of the highest hill peaks on Earth since I left.

I aspire to see the impressive rock spectrum whenever I travel to Kathmandu. However, there is typically no fortune these times.

Graved air pollutants, which hangs as cloud above the area, is the main culprit.

And it continues even during the once-clear stars of the spring and fall.

Because of the foggy weather affecting visibility at the airport, the global flight I was on had to group in the sky almost 20 times before landing in Kathmandu only last April.

There was no day like that during my two-week stay, but the hotel I checked into had a sensible elevation where mountains are accessible on clear days.

Even from the main point of view, which is located just outside of Kathmandu, all that could be seen was cloud, as if the hills did not exist.

Yogendra Shakya, who has been running a motel in Nagarkot since 1996, said,” I no longer model the area for opinions of “roast, twilight, and Himalayas” as I did in the past.

” I have rebranded it with history and culture as there are those hospitality products as well here because you didn’t have those items generally now because of the fog.”

I had a bad experience that when I went on a previous trip a year ago and was hoping to see the magnificent Himalayan peaks while hiking in the stunning Annapurna region.

Yogendra Shakya View of a hill in the foreground with Himalaya mountains and some peaks visible in the backgroundYogendra Shakya
View of a hill in the foreground with nothing visible behind, due to haze

According to scientists, presence is severely reduced by the region’s foggy conditions, which are getting worse and worsening.

Haze is created by a combination of fire-related pollutants, such as dust and smoke, that reduces visibility to less than 5, 000 meters ( 16, 400 feet ). It persists in the sky during the dry season, which has now lasted more as a result of climate change.

The state’s rainy season occurs between June and September when the mountains are covered in a cloud and visibility is low due to the absence of haze.

The best months for company were typically March to May and October to November because that was when the clouds remained distinct and presence was highest.

However, the spring months are now seeing heavy fog and reduced visibility due to rising temperatures, a lack of weather, and worsening air pollution. The situations are forming in December.

No sight means no organization, according to the saying.

Happy Chhetri, a pioneering women trekking manual in Nepal, claimed that business had decreased by 40 % due to foggy conditions.

” Our instructions were unable to show them the Himalayas in one case last year because of the hazy circumstances,” she continued.

A visitor from Australia who has been to Nepal more than a dozen days since 1986 referred to the lack of mountains as a “major let-down.”

” It wasn’t like this ten years ago, but now the fog seems to have vanished, and it’s incredibly disappointing for customers like me,” said John Carrol.

The northern Gandaki province’s Trekking Agents Association, led by Krishna KC, claims that the backpacking industry is in serious trouble.

” Our part sightseeing providers are becoming depressed because no company is being impacted by no sight of the Himalayas.” Many of them are actually thinking about changing careers, he told the BBC.

Happy Chhetri Happy Chhetri, one of the pioneering women trekking guides in Nepal, poses in front of the Himalayas which can be clearly seenHappy Chhetri

Hoteliers and tour operators on the American side claim that haze is now heavier and returns more quickly than before, close to the main Himalayas.

” Unlike in the past, we have longer dry spells followed by a large storm.” So the fog persists for a very long time with frequent rain, according to Malika Virdi, who runs a community-run tourism company in the state of Uttarakhand.

But, Ms. Virdi claims that tourists are frequent, with many who returned to try their luck once more after missing the mountain range.

Because the hills are so far from cities, the cloud has been less harmful to the northern Himalayas in Pakistan.

Locals claim, however, that even the mountain ranges that were once obscured by areas like Peshawar and Gilgit are frequently no longer noticeable.

Asif Shuja, the former head of Pakistan’s environmental protection agency, said,” The plate of cloud hangs for a longer period of time and we don’t see the hills that we could have.”

increasing sand winds and haes

South Asian cities consistently rank among the sites with the worst heat pollution in the world.

The dangerous heat, which often causes vacation disruption and school closures, has had a significant impact on public health across the region.

Air pollution from vehicles and industries, dust from dry gravel roads and infrastructure construction, as well as the empty burning of waste are big sources year-round.

This is made worse by the dust from huge forest fires, which are getting worse as the dry season gets longer, and the farmers in northern India, Pakistan, and Nepal burning crop residue after the harvest.

These pollutants are entrapped in warmer air by warmer weather, which prevents horizontal air movement.

According to Dr. Someshwor Das of the South Asia Meteorological Association,” Hazes and sand storms are becoming more frequent in South Asia, and this trend is expected to continue due to climate change and other elements.”

According to Nepal’s division of drainage and weather, 168 foggy times were recorded at the airports in Pokhara, a big tourism hub in northern Nepal, in 2024, an increase from 23 in 2020 and 84 in 2021.

Yunish Gurung An image of Fishtail mountain in Nepal with clear skies clearly seen from the roadYunish Gurung
A similar image of Fishtail mountain in Nepal but now with hazy skies obscuring the view

Given that they are located in a highly populated and polluted area, experts say the Himalayas are probably the worst-affected mountain range in the world.

This could mean that the breathtaking views of the Himalayas are now largely limited to photographs, paintings, and postcards.

When we are unable to show our clients the mountains they pay for, said trekking leader Ms Chhetri,” we are left to do business with guilt.”

And” The haze cannot be eliminated.”

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Ceasefire can’t mask India-Pakistan’s dangerous new conflict norms – Asia Times

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India and Pakistan have already witnessed the incident unfold: a series of escalating tit-for-tat steps that put South Asia in the brink of total war. And then there is a de-escalation.

The most recent crises, where the large contours of that design have been played out, saw the most recent incident occur with the news of a stalemate on May 10, 2025.

The conflict, which started on April 22 with a fatal attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir and resulted in the deaths of 26 people, is important in another way. It involved primary weapon markets targeting places inside both provinces and the use of advanced missile techniques and drones by the two nuclear rivals for the first time.

As a researcher of radioactive conflicts, particularly between India and Pakistan, I’ve long been concerned that the proliferation of sophisticated martial and digital technologies, as well as the erosion of global sovereignty norms, and the reduced US interest and influence in the area, have significantly increased the risk of a quick and uncontrolled escalation in South Asia.

Both nations ‘ local political transitions have been a result of these changes. The pro-Hindu patriotism of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has heightened social tensions in the country.

General Syed Asim Munir, Pakistan’s powerful army commander, has endorsed the” two-nation theory,” which states that India is home to Hindus and Pakistan is a home to Muslims.

A series of newspapers show headlines including 'Operation Sindoor'
On May 8, 2025, papers with front-page articles about the India-Pakistan issue will be displayed. Photo: Narinder Nanu / AFP via Getty Images/ The Talk

This spiritual framing was also evident in the names of the two nations ‘ military campaigns. It is” Operation Sindoor” for India, a nod to the women of the Kashmir assault and a nod to the dark scarlet worn by married Hindu people.

Pakistan called its counter-operation” Bunyan-un-Marsoos” – an Arabic word from the Quran indicating” a solid framework”.

Washington’s position

Tens of thousands of lives have been lost in the India-Pakistan conflict in various warfare in 1947-48, 1965, and 1971. But since the late 1990s, whenever India and Pakistan approached the brink of war, a familiar de-escalation handbook unfolded: powerful politics, usually led by the United States, may help defuse conflicts.

President Bill Clinton’s strong intervention in 1999 put an end to the Kargil issue, a limited war sparked by Bangladeshi forces entering Indian-administered Kashmir, by pressing Pakistan for a removal.

US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage engaged in intensive shuttle politics between Islamabad and New Delhi after the 2001 attack by terrorists allegedly linked to Pakistan-based organizations Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed.

And after the 2008 Mumbai episodes, which saw 166 people killed by terrorists linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba, swift and high-level American diplomatic engagement helped control India’s response and reduced the risk of an escalating issue.

In the wake of a suicide bombing in Pulwama, Kashmir that left 40 American security personnel dead, American political pressure helped to halt hostilities as late as 2019 during the Balakot issue.

In his autobiography, former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo after wrote,” I do not believe the world fully understands how near the India-Pakistan rivalry came to spill over into a nuclear conflagration in February 2019.”

A political hole?

Washington as a mediator made sense because it had control and a strong interest.

The US and Pakistan forged a nearby ally during the Cold War to combat India’s ties to the Soviet Union. And after the 9/11 evil problems, the US poured tens of billions of dollars in military aid into Pakistan as a front partner in the “war on terror”.

Beginning in the early 2000s, the US also began cultivating India as a proper mate.

A steadfast Pakistan played a vital role in the US’s conflict there, and a pleasant India served as China’s strategic counterbalance. And this gave the US both the desire and reliability to work as an effective negotiator during times of India-Pakistan problems.

Nevertheless, America’s political focus has shifted considerably away from South Asia as of today. The Cold War ended, but the pace quickly picked up after the US’s departure from Afghanistan in 2021. More just, the war in Ukraine and the Middle East have consumed Washington’s political work.

Since President Donald Trump took office in January 2025, there haven’t been any diplomatic appointments for the US, which must have hampered any facilitating responsibilities.

In contrast to Trump’s claim that the May 10 peace came after a “long day of talks mediated by the United States,” statements from India and Pakistan appeared to underplay US involvement, instead focusing on the direct bilateral character of the talks.

Does it occur that Washington’s function as a mediator between Pakistan and India has been diminished, it is not immediately clear who, if anyone, may fill the void.

Due to its close ties with Pakistan and previous border disputes with India, China, which has been trying to establish a mediatorship somewhere, is not seen as natural. During the most recent issue, other local powers like Iran and Saudi Arabia attempted to intervene, but both failed to have the same level of power as the US or China.

This lack of physical counseling is never, of course, a problem in itself. Historiographically, foreign interference, especially US support for Pakistan during the Cold War, frequently exacerbated relationships in South Asia by fostering military tensions and strengthening hard jobs.

However, the past has shown that additional pressure, particularly from Washington, can be successful.

Breaking the conventions

The most recent escalation occurred in the context of a different strong: the deterioration of international standards since the Cold War ended and its accelerating growth after 2001.

Through techniques like preemptive strikes against sovereign states, targeted aircraft killings, and “enhanced investigation techniques” of detainees that some constitutional scholars label as torture, America’s “war on terror” fundamentally challenged global legal frameworks.

More recently, Israel’s operations in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria have drawn widespread criticism for violations of international humanitarian law – but have resulted in limited consequences.

People in army uniforms patrol a street.
On May 7, 2025, security forces patrol the street in the Wuyan area of Pampore in south Kashmir. Faisal Khan and Anadolu via Getty Images and The Conversation

In short, geopolitical norms have ebbed away, and military actions that were once deemed red lines are being crossed with little accountability.

This environment offers both opportunity and risk for India and Pakistan. Both can point to other actions that have been taken to support assertive actions that, in previous years, would have been seen as being too far, such as attacks on places of worship and sovereignty violations.

Multi-domain warfare

However, I believe the most recent crisis ‘ multi-domain nature is what truly distinguished it from those of the past. As it did for the first five decades of the Kashmir conflict, the conflict has shifted beyond traditional military exchanges along the line of control.

Both countries largely respected the line of control as a de facto boundary for military operations until the 2019 crisis. Since then, there has been a risky trend: first, cross-border airstrikes into each other’s territory, then a conflict that spans the conventional military, cyber, and information spheres at once.

Reports indicate Chinese-made Pakistani J-10 fighter jets shot down multiple Indian aircraft, including advanced French Rafale jets. This conflict between Chinese and Western weapons adds another layer of great-power competition to the crisis by acting as a proxy test for rival global military technologies.

In addition, the use of loitering drones designed to attack radar systems represents a significant increase in the technological sophistication of cross-border attacks in comparison to earlier times.

The conflict has also expanded dramatically into the cyber domain. Reports from Pakistani hackers who claim to be the” Pakistan Cyber Force” breach several Indian defense institutions, potentially compromising personnel information and login credentials.

In addition, social media and a new right-wing media in India have developed into a significant battlefront. Ultranationalist voices in India incited violence against Muslims and Kashmiris, in Pakistan, anti-India rhetoric similarly intensified online.

Cooler voices are prevailing for the time being.

These shifts have led to a number of escalation paths that conventional crisis management strategies weren’t designed to address.

Particularly concerning is the nuclear dimension. Pakistan has developed short-range tactical nuclear weapons designed to counteract Indian conventional advantages. Its nuclear doctrine states that it will use nuclear weapons if its existence is threatened. In addition, India has informally toned down its previous no-first-use stance, leaving its operational doctrine ambiguous.

As the ceasefire announcement indicates, mediating voices appear to have prevailed this time around. However, this most recent conflict turned out to be a dangerous turning point due to eroding norms, lessening great power diplomacy, and the development of multi-domain warfare.

What transpires next will reveal a lot about how nuclear rivals can control the conflict spiral in this dangerous new environment.

Farah N Jan is senior lecturer in international relations, University of Pennsylvania

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the article’s introduction.

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Humbled and humiliated, India should look beyond Modi – Asia Times

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In addition to killing 26 people and sparking a losing military conflict with Pakistan, the Pahalgam strike has also caused an extraordinary credibility crisis for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The shoddy military reaction, in which Pakistan apparently shot down Indian fighters and at least one helicopter, has revealed fresh flaws in India’s strategic eyesight, military prowess, and political autonomy.

The failures, which range from political capitulations to mistakes on the field, underscore the urgent need for reform and reflection to reclaim India’s status in South Asia and past. In the end, that might mean abandoning Modi’s shaky authority.

In addition to the insoluble complexity of the Kashmir issue, the Pahalgam attack exposed the continual flaws in India’s domestic security equipment. Modi authorized a military activity, dubbed” Operation Sindhur,” that targeted Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir with attacks.

But, the procedure failed spectacularly by any reasonable standard. Pakistan claimed that India’s French-made Rafale jet was broken by its Chinese-made fighter jets, a declare New Delhi has strongly refuted.

The loss of a Rafale flight to a supposedly less developed Muslim attack is a humiliating blow to India’s say to regional power, if it is true, and the states have already been widely reported in international media.

India’s Foreign Minister S Jaishankar and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval turned to Washington for intervention in a major move, which was evidently initiated after losing fighter planes to Pakistan’s countermeasures.

Both parties agreed to a peace on May 10, which was followed by commander-level discussions on May 12. A important, if not troubting, indictment of India’s strategic autonomy, even though the de-escalation has partially eased its nuclear-tinged hostilities.

The show also highlights the ongoing complexity and incredible danger of the Kashmir conflict and the crucial role that international cooperation plays in tackling terrorism, while also exposing India’s own diplomatic restrictions.

local supremacy was eroded

India has pursued a local identity equivalent to the Monroe Doctrine for the Indian Ocean for centuries by focusing on South Asia as its sphere of influence.

India established itself as the dominant force in the continent by gaining control over companions like Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and the Islands. However, this tale of dominance has been shattered by the Pahalgam tragedy and the later need for American treatment.

India’s effect is waning as the region’s effect grows, and its influence there is still strong.

New Delhi’s power has been challenged by a Western-backed state in Nepal who disregarded India’s wishes. In addition, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and the Islands are tying their ties to China and other world powers, more dilating India’s regional influence.

With India’s once-strong identity in sharp decrease, this shift signals a change in South Asia’s energy dynamics. India’s growing vulnerabilities have been exposed in the Pahalgam incident, which will likely encourage its neighbors to seek out or support other alignments.

Since he came to power, Modi has consistently praised India as a” Vishwa Guru” ( world leader ) and emerging superpower while praising advancements in economic growth, military modernization, and global influence.

But, calm Indian planners and analysts have cautioned that India is still far from superpower status, treating it rather as a center power with severe limitations. Yet this humble assessment has been severely harmed by the Pahalgam problems and Pakistan’s fresh declare of China-provided air superiority.

The dangers of American support

Interestingly, the most piercing criticisms of India’s lowered stature come from its apparent ally, the United States, rather than its traditional adversaries, Pakistan or China.

Through activities like the” Freedom of Navigation” operation in the Indian Ocean in November 2021, which signaled National assertiveness in India’s sphere of influence, Modi’s self-declared “great friend” has gently undermined India’s position. This fluid has been strengthened by the US-brokered peace over the weekend.

Analysts are now making speculative claims that the US does have offered Modi significant concessions, perhaps forcing India to pay the price for accepting unfavorable terms in a bilateral trade agreement. It should be noted that Donald Trump’s” Liberation Day” mutual levies hit India very difficult.

This interpersonal diplomacy highlights India’s declining independence and subordination in Washington’s circle. Far from being a stare, India is increasingly seen as a elastic alliance, its strategic priorities being subordinated to its powerhouse ambitions. In light of this, India’s ability to chart an independent program in a unipolar world is questioned.

India’s corporate issues have grown more complicated as a result of Modi’s inability to comprehend the jaded underpinnings of European flattery. Western powers frequently praise leaders they may influence, tarnishing their compliment in terms of their sworn superiority and ability to see the world. Modi has internalized the approbation as proof of his own skill, misunderstanding this tactic.

S Jaishankar, a minister with Western interests, was appointed as the foreign minister in 2015 and the foreign affairs minister in 2019, cementing a pro-US bias in India’s international policy when he took office. However, this position possibly has had lessening effects as India grows more dependent on American interests.

However, the government-aligned” Godi press” has had a significant influence on how the media has inflated Modi’s image, consistently portraying him as a strong and determined leader. Through position force, dissident voices, including reporters, intellectuals, and activists, have been silenced, creating an echo chamber that isolates Modi from reality.

However, this manufactured demeanor has deteriorated as a result of the Pahalgam failure and later American involvement in the crisis. Certainly the dull accolades of European capitals or the servile narratives of local media, India’s real strength comes from its economic resilience, technical advancements, and tactical acumen.

India is trapped in a hazardous idea due to Modi’s inability to recognize this. And the Pahalgam incident and following military humiliation by archrival Pakistan have possibly persuaded a wider range of Indians to confront the harsh realities of their nation’s limitations and Modi’s shortcomings.

Post-Modi era

India also has a crucial chance for reflection and change as a result of the issue. To regain its waning local influence and power, India must emphasize economic revitalization, martial modernization, and a rebalanced foreign policy.

To restore India’s regional influence, it is crucial to establish confidence with relatives. Similarly crucial is reducing dependence on Western rights, especially the US, by working toward a politics that is more forceful and healthy and that reflects India’s special geopolitical realities.

The ruling National Democratic Alliance ( NDA ) in India is now faced with a crucial decision: to continue under Modi’s leadership or to seek new leadership. Modi’s propensity for crude thinking, susceptibility to flattery, and political blunders seem to be getting in the way of navigating the complexity of today’s multilateral world. A new president could help India take a more wiser and successful course.

India is currently facing a deep crisis due to the events surrounding the Pahalgam strike and the frailties of Modi’s management. Pahalgam’s upshots have shattered India’s superpower passion, which was fueled by years of grand rhetoric and macho posturing.

India needs radical changes to redefine its position on the international level as South Asia’s energy dynamics change. The greater the danger to India’s standing the longer Modi attaches to energy. Pahalgam has made it known, among other things, that a post-Modi program adjustment is necessary.

Bhim Bhurtel is a member of the X network, @BhimBhurtel.

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China’s jets and missiles make Pakistan a winner over India – Asia Times

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In recent aerial battles over Kashmir, India lost a number of combat aircraft, including the priceless French-made Rafale fighters, the popular-made Su-30 MKI and MiG-29, and an unmanned aerial vehicle ( UAV ), which, if true, would challenge perceptions about India’s airpower superiority over Pakistan.

Although the human element on either side clearly played a part in the results, the skirmishes may have also demonstrated the superiority of China’s warrior and missile systems over its Western and Russian counterparts. &nbsp,

Pakistan’s advantage in terms of weapon and fighter plane may have been its key advantage over India on the defensive front. The Chinese-made PL-15E beyond visual range ( BVR ) missile, whose wreckage was recovered in Punjab, India, marking its combat debut, was one of them.

The Chinese PL-15 beyond-visual-range ( BVR ) missile, according to a report from Justin Bronk of the Royal United Services Institute ( RUSI), performs similarly to the US AIM-120 AMRAAM and surpasses the Russian R-77.

According to Bronk, the PL-15 has a small active electronically scanned array ( AESA ) radar and a dual-pulse solid rocket motor. Although a South China Morning Post (SCMP ) article from September 2021 states that the export version ( PL-15E ) is limited to 145 kilometers, he estimates the range of the PL-15 to be 200 kilometers.

In addition, Douglas Barrie of the International Institute for Strategic Studies ( IISS) notes in a September 2022 article that the PL-15’s solid-propellant propulsion achieves faster burnout speeds than the Meteor missile used aboard India’s Rafales.

He acknowledges, however, that the Meteor’s ramjet giver maintains sustained thrust throughout its flight and increases mid-course energy. The missile’s benefits is amplified by its launch platform’s capabilities.

According to Bronk, the Chinese-made J-10C fighter’s capability includes an actively electronically scanned array ( AESA ) radar, a cutting-edge infrared search and track ( IRS T ) system, electronic support measures ( ESM), a radar warning receiver ( RWR ), a missile approach warning suite ( MAWS), and datalinks, giving it a better chance of surviving in a situational awareness match with its contemporary competitors.

Bronk claims that the J-10C can compete with Western single-engine fighters like the F-16 and Gripen while also presenting a smaller radar, visual, and infrared ( IR ) signature than Russia’s Su-27 variants.

He points out that the J-10C and potential variants could be the most significant near-peer underwater pacing threat for European states in 2020 with AESA radar, long-range PL-15 missiles, a contemporary cockpit, and helmet-mounted displays.

While the J-10C’s ability expands, its American foes may be displaying age-related signs. Significant shortcomings are identified by a January 2025 report from the French Institute of International Relations ( IFRI ) as the Rafale’s lack of radar stealth and dedicated suppression of enemy air defenses ( SEAD ) capabilities.

Older French Air Force officers are cited in the report as saying combat operations against stealth combatants during joint exercises are “very difficult to win” with the Rafale’s present device suite.

The Rafale may still be useful in the near-to-medium word, but its limitations may make it obsolete in high-intensity alliance operations, which are dominated by fifth-generation aircraft.

In addition, Rajorshi Roy mentions that India’s Su-30 MKI ships had a small preparation rating of only 60 % at the time of his reading in an April 2023 content in the peer-reviewed MGIMO Review of International Relations journal, partly due to issues surrounding the supply of Russian spare parts for the plane type.

Pakistan’s fleet of airborne early warning and control ( AEW&amp, C ) aircraft may have had a significant impact on the operation of Indian fighters.

In a 1945 article this month, Sebastien Roblin claimed that Pakistan’s Erieye-equipped Saab 2000 airborne early warning and control ( AEW&amp, C ) aircraft can track and detect hostile aircraft at altitudes up to 450 kilometers, including those that are attempting to avoid radar.

Roblin points out that these platforms can arrange with pleasant fighters operating with their radars out, increasing stealth and survival. He adds that the Chinese PL-15 weapon, reportedly used by Pakistan in new skirmishes, is designed to obtain mid-course advice via datalink from AEW&amp, C platforms like the Saab 2000, enabling it to land on targets without the developing fighter having to reveal them.

Roblin points out that this connected approach prevents an aircraft from receiving early warning until its onboard AESA seeker activates for end guidance.

In an August 2022 Center for Air Power Studies ( CAPS) article, Swaim Singh mentions that India has only three A-50E I units and the same number of domestically developed Netra Mk 1 planes, but that it is lagging behind on AEW&C capability to monitor its vast airspace.

These functional flaws even contribute to the overall strategic perspective, where Pakistan’s flying victories over India might be its strongest sales pitch to China for its fighter jets so far.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute ( SIPRI ) lists China as the fourth-largest arms exporter in 2024, but it struggles to sell its fighter jets overseas, with customers confined to countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh, Zambia, Sudan, and North Korea.

But, Pakistan’s performance in the most recent brawls with India may boost China’s warrior selling ball in the Middle East, according to Paul Iddon in an article for Forbes. Countries like Egypt, Iran, and Saudi Arabia may be potential clients, according to Paul Iddon.

For sales could help China’s “fighter politics” campaign, with fighter aircraft’s stringent professional, maintenance, and training requirements fostering stronger strategic ties between China and its clients while also acting as a bulwark for Beijing.

In their most recent conflict over Kashmir, India and Pakistan may have incorporated the strategic lessons from the 2019 Balakot airstrikes into their responses.

In a South Asian Voices ( SAV ) article from February 2024, Muhammad Faisal and Huma Rehman claim that Pakistan’s threshold for risk-acceptance has increased as a result of the Balakot airstrikes, making using military force a viable response.

Faisal and Rehman argue that the Pakistani government and military are unable to take action against territorial sovereignty violations, and that clear diplomatic communication during a conventional, non-nuclear crisis and after similar retaliatory strikes is essential to de-escalation.

Deependra Hooda mentions in a February 2022 Stimson Center article that the Balakot airstrikes were a clear illustration of a space within the sub-conventional conflict boundary wherein India can use airpower to target while having escalation control.

According to those observations, the most recent India-Pakistani conflict may reflect an evolution of a dynamic that was developed during the Kargil War in 1999 and refined during the Balakot airstrikes, with both nuclear-armed parties finding room for non-nuclear escalation without appealing to either for a nuclear response.

Pakistan’s recent victories against India’s fighters and at least one drone may have changed South Asia’s airpower balance and contributed to China’s rise as a true global force in aerial warfare and fighter sales.

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India and Pakistan: How backchannels and US mediators pulled rivals back from the brink

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two days ago
Vikas Pandey and Soutik Biswas

BBC News

Reporting fromDelhi
Reuters People gather in celebration after the ceasefire announcement between India and Pakistan, in Islamabad, Pakistan, May 10, 2025.Reuters
US President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that India and Pakistan had agreed to a “full and urgent ceasefire” after four anxious times of cross-border fighting.

According to experts, US mediators helped the nuclear-armed rivals reclaim their position behind the scenes, along with political backchannels and provincial players.

India and Pakistan were exchange accusations of new violations shortly after the peace agreement, which highlights its weakness.

Pakistan’s causes allegedly showed “repeated violations,” while India accused Pakistan of repeating them while insisting that it remained committed to the peace.

India and Pakistan were edging closer to a full-fledged fight before Trump’s ceasefire announcement, which some feared might turn out to be.

India launched air strikes inside Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir following a deadly violent assault last month that left 26 visitors dead. This led to weeks of airstrikes, weaponry duels, and accusations on both sides of missile attacks on each other’s airbases.

Each nation claimed to have caused significant damage while thwarting the other’s problems, which escalated quickly.

Getty Images President Donald Trump listens as U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks during a Cabinet meeting at the White HouseGetty Images

The call made by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir on May 9th, according to Tanvi Madan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, “might have been the important place,” according to Tanvi Madan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC.

” There’s still a lot to be learned about the roles of various international actors, but it’s obvious over the past three days that at least three countries are working to de-escalate, including the UK and Saudi Arabia,” she says.

Ishaq Dar, the country’s foreign minister, reported to Pakistani media that” three dozen countries” were involved in the diplomacy, including the US, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey.

” One question is whether this call might have come sooner, right after the initial Indian strikes, when Pakistan was already claiming some losses from India and having an off-ramp available,” Madan asks.

Not the first time that US mediation has helped to resolve an India-Pakistan conflict has been involved.

Former US secretary of state Mike Pompeo claimed in his memoir that he was awakened to speak with an unnamed” Indian counterpart” who feared Pakistan was preparing nuclear weapons during the 2019 standoff.

Reuters Kashmiri men greet each other after the ceasefire announcement between India and Pakistan, in Srinagar, May 10, 2025.Reuters

Ajay Bisaria, a former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan, wrote in a later article that Pompeo exaggerated both the US’s role in calming the conflict and the potential for nuclear escalation.

Diplomats contend that there is no denying that the US helped to ease the current crisis.

” The US was the most important external player. Pompeo once asserted that they had averted a nuclear war. They may have played the most of the diplomatic role, perhaps strengthening Delhi’s positions in Islamabad, Mr. Bisaria told the BBC on Saturday.

However, the US initially appeared to be remarkably standoffish.

US Vice President JD Vance stated on Thursday that the US was not going to enter a war that was “fundamentally none of our business” as tensions grew.

” We can’t control these nations, though. India has some issues with Pakistan, and America can’t let them lay down their weapons. We can’t instruct Pakistanis to lay down their weapons. And so we’re going to keep trying this through diplomatic channels, he said in an interview with a television station.

In the meantime, President Trump stated earlier this week:” I know both]leaders of India and Pakistan very well, and I want to see them work it out.” I want them to stop, and I’m hoping they can do so soon.

Getty Images Pakistani people celebrate after the ceasefire. Men are seen with their hands in the air and waving flagsGetty Images

This appeared to be the only difference from previous times, according to Ejaz Haider, a Lahore-based defense analyst, who spoke to the BBC.

The American role was a continuation of previous patterns, but with one notable difference: this time, they initially stayed silent, watching the crisis unfold, rather than jumping in right away. They only intervened when they learned how it was going, according to Mr. Haider, who spoke to the BBC.

Experts in Pakistan claim that as the escalation cycle got worse, Pakistan “dual signals” retaliated militarily by announcing a meeting of the National Command Authority (NCA ) meeting, a clear reminder of the nuclear overhang.

The NCA oversees Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and makes operational decisions.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio intervened at this time.

” The US was unavoidable. Without Secretary Rubio’s efforts, this outcome would not have been possible,” said Ashley J. Tellis, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, to the BBC.

Washington’s growing ties with Delhi also helped.

The US administration gained diplomatic leverage as a result of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s personal relationship with Trump, as well as the US’s wider strategic and economic stakes.

Indian diplomats note three crucial peace events that occurred this time, similar to those that occurred after Pulwama-Balakot in 2019.

  • US and UK pressure
  • Saudi mediation, with visits to both capitals by the junior foreign minister.
  • The two national security advisors ( NSAs ) communicate directly between India and Pakistan.

The US eventually emerged as the unavoidable mediator between South Asia’s nuclear rivals, despite shifting global priorities and a initially aloof position.

Experts believe the US’s role as a crisis manager is still just as crucial and complicated as ever, whether it is overstated by its own officials or underrepresented by Delhi and Islamabad.

However, doubts still exist regarding the viability of the ceasefire following Saturday’s events, with some Indian media reporting that senior military officials of the two nations reportedly brokered it, not the US.

” This ceasefire is undoubtedly fragile,” he declared. It occurred very quickly, amid sky-high tensions. According to Michael Kugelman, a foreign policy analyst, the Indians appear to have interpreted it differently than the US and Pakistan.

The agreement may not have the necessary assurances and guarantees one would require at such a tense moment because it was put together so hastily.

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Kashmir: What’s the way out of the India and Pakistan crisis?

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9 days ago
Anbarasan Ethirajan

South Asia Regional Editor

AFP via Getty Images Supporters of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Fazal (JUI-F) shout slogans during an anti-India protest in Islamabad on May 9, 2025. AFP via Getty Images

As the continuing India-Pakistan problems takes a dangerous move, nations around the world are urging quiet.

The original thinking was that after India launched air strikes, and with Pakistan claiming to have shot over many American jets- a claim Delhi has no confirmed- both sides could claim “victory” and de-escalate.

But there’s a risk that any protracted tit-for-tat problems may lead them to a far more devastating idea.

During previous problems, such as in 2019 and 2016, it was the United States and a few different world rights that put pressure on Delhi and Islamabad to take the situation under control and de-escalate.

Then emotions are running great and the republican speech has reached a climax on both sides. The neighbours are closer to combat than in subsequent years.

” The World group is keeping silent, that’s dangerous”, Ayesha Siddiqa, a Muslim educational who is a senior fellow at King’s College London.

” Though the rocket up has been happening for years, this is the first time the two locations find themselves in a fight without people monitoring them or strongly telling them to stop”, she said.

Unless Washington gets more concerned, Islamabad and Delhi does proceed with their complaints and counter-accusations.

Although US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been telling the top officials of India and Pakistan to de-escalate, the information from other American officials is unique.

US Vice-President JD Vance has said that a possible war between India and Pakistan would be “none of our firm” during an interview with Fox News.

” We want this item to de-escalate as quickly as possible. We didn’t control these places, though”, Vance said.

Vance was on a visit to India when the violent assault in Indian-administered Kashmir, which killed 26 citizens, took place.

US President Donald Trump had previously called rising tension between India and Pakistan a” shame”.

AFP via Getty Images Local residents stand outside their house that was destroyed by Pakistani artillery shelling as they prepare to evacuate at the Lagama village in Uri, about 100kms from Srinagar, on May 9, 2025. AFP via Getty Images

During earlier India-Pakistan skirmishes, for instance in 2019, pressure was defused immediately after India carried out what it called” medical attacks” on what it called criminal camps inside Pakistan.

One American military aircraft was shot downward in the aftermath of the problems and the captain was captured by Pakistan. He was released two days later after reported action from Washington and other earth power.

But the power of the present conflict is distinct and emotions are running high on both edges.

While the Trump administration’s objectives are more about taxes, China and Ukraine-Russia, it does require a conscious effort by the global community to lower tension between the two nuclear-armed foes.

The other planet strength which has a stake in South Asia is China. Beijing has shut economic and military relations with Islamabad. It has invested more than$ 50bn ( £37.5bn ) in Pakistan as parts of its China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to boost trade.

China also has unsettled border issues with India and the two nations just had a border clash in the Himalayan region 2020. Despite the strain, China is the second largest investing lover of India.

” If the US is uninterested]in addressing India-Pakistan stress] next other permanent members of the UN Security Council – P5- may get involved. It is their duty as well”, Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based global affairs analyst tells the BBC.

As India accuses Pakistan of supporting the Kashmiri separatist insurgents, who carried out the deadly attack on travellers last quarter, the Chinese academic says” the P-5 people can establish a credible research into the incident”, to tackle India’s concerns.

Gulf states like Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which have close ties to both the countries, could step up their mediation efforts.

Saudi Arabian Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel Al-Jubeir arrived in Delhi on 7 May in what was seen as a surprise visit amid the backdrop of a spike in tensions between India and Pakistan.

” A good meeting with Adel Al-Jubeir”, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said, adding that his counterpart” shared India’s perspective on firmly countering terrorism”.

The Saudi minister arrived in Islamabad on Friday for talks with Pakistan’s leaders.

There are an estimated 2.6 million Pakistanis living and working in the Gulf Kingdom. Riyadh has considerable influence in Pakistan.

Saudi Arabia has loaned billions of dollars to Pakistan to bail out the country during economic crises over the years.

One way out of the current crisis could be a situation where both sides can claim victory to satisfy their audience.

Delhi says the missile strikes on suspected militant hideouts inside Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir were part of a commitment to hold “accountable” those responsible for the last month’s attack in Pahalgam.

” India has already said it has achieved its objectives. Now, the ball is in Pakistan’s court. If they wish to retaliate then that would elicit a strong response from India”, retired Indian Lt Gen D S Hooda said.

For Pakistan, especially for its powerful military, it would want to show its people that it can stand up against India and teach it a lesson once again by downing five of the Indian air force jets during a dog fight.

India has not acknowledged the loss of any of its fighter jets in the current skirmish.

But according to Pakistani academic Siddiqa, how the current crisis ends depends on what India’s stated objectives are.

” India’s goal posts keep changing day by day– from punishing Pakistan to attaining something more”, she said.

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Whole world loses if India-Pakistan go to war – Asia Times

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As the first missile trails vanished into the early morning haze over Kashmir’s Line of Control on May 7, a troubling reality broke into the open: South Asia remains hostage to a cycle of violence, denial and miscalculation, one that promises disaster ahead if not quickly reversed.

India’s airstrikes into Pakistan-administered Kashmir came in response to the April 22 massacre of 26 civilians in Pahalgam, a picturesque hill station in India-administered Kashmir. Within hours of India’s missile strikes, Pakistan retaliated with artillery fire, claiming to have shot down several Indian aircraft, including a prized Rafael fighter.

The framing of events has followed a familiar script. India, citing self-defense, has justified its actions as measured and non-escalatory. Pakistan, for its part, has denied involvement in the Pahalgam massacre and called India’s missile strikes a flagrant violation of its sovereignty while emphasizing the civilian deaths caused by the attack.

What followed was not only an exchange of fire but an exchange of narratives. Narrative supremacy is now as vital as military strength, with each side framing the initial and now subsequent events to win domestic approval and international sympathy.

Yet amid this geopolitical theater, few are asking the harder questions. How did a heavily guarded region like Pahalgam become the site of such a brazen attack? Where was the intelligence apparatus that so often touts its reach?

Reports suggest that the assailants questioned victims before executing them—implying time, control and confidence. This was not a failure from across the border; this was a breakdown from within.

And still, the dominant reaction was externalization. Pakistani culpability was asserted before forensic evidence could surface, echoing India’s 2019 Pulwama response.

Once again, the question of accountability for internal security lapses has been buried beneath patriotic fervor and media amplification. The risk of further escalation through miscalculation or retaliatory strikes remains high, yet critical introspection is apparently politically inconvenient in Delhi.

Washington has responded with caution. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has reportedly spoken with both capitals, and President Trump expressed hope that the situation “ends very quickly.”

But passive diplomacy is not a strategy. This crisis demands more than moral balancing—it demands active engagement to avert a spiral between two nuclear powers. Behind-the-scenes efforts by the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia and China should complement the US’s public involvement to avoid another prolonged and disastrous confrontation in the region.

The consequences of escalation extend beyond India and Pakistan. The conflict has the potential to paralyze much of South Asia, putting smaller nations in untenable positions.

Bangladesh, still adjusting to a tumultuous political transition, is grappling with rising anti-India sentiment. In Sri Lanka and the Maldives, communal tensions could flare if the Kashmir conflict takes on a religious tone.

Nepal’s careful balancing act between India and China is under new strain, and Bhutan fears that any Indian distraction may trigger heightened Chinese pressure. For these countries, Kashmir is more than a flashpoint—it’s a reminder of how quickly regional equilibrium can unravel when diplomacy gives way to confrontation.

However, this is not just a South Asian problem—it is a global one. A long-term standoff would also act to undermine Washington’s Indo-Pacific ambitions, namely counterbalancing China’s rising influence, including in South Asia.

Perhaps the most troubling aspect is the enduring marginalization of the Kashmiris themselves. In the rush to strike, retaliate and dominate the narrative, the voices of those most affected have, as always, been excluded.

India’s human rights abuses, political disenfranchisement and demographic engineering in Jammu and Kashmir remain unresolved and unaddressed. Until these root causes of conflict are confronted, no missile strike—no matter how surgical—can bring resolution or peace.

To be sure, the Pahalgam attack was horrific and inexcusable. But turning tragedy into a pretext for retaliation without evidence of Pakistani state involvement, without accountability and without honest introspection is not only cynical—it is dangerous.

The path forward must be one of restraint, transparency and dialogue. South Asia has paid the price of denial too often. And this time, with storm clouds gathering of a possible prolonged military conflict, the wider world will suffer the consequenes.

Ishaal Zehra is a freelance Pakistani journalist specializing in South Asia’s geopolitical and economic landscape. Her work focuses on the intersection of regional security and strategic realignments in South Asia, Central Asia and the Indian Ocean region.

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India and Pakistan: The first drone war between nuclear-armed neighbours

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last 16 days
Soutik Biswas
NurPhoto via Getty Images An Indian soldier of the border security forces keeps vigil while using a drone in Gulmarg, Jammu and Kashmir, India, on May 3, 2025. NurPhoto via Getty Images

South Asia has seen the first aircraft war between neighbors with nuclear weapons ever.

India quickly refuted Islamabad’s claim that Pakistan had launched tides of drones and weapons at three military installations in Indian-administered Kashmir on Thursday.

Pakistan claimed to have shot over 25 Indian robots recently. Delhi kept a public oath. The tit-for-tat attacks, according to experts, indicate a risky new step in the decades-old conflict because both parties exchange unmanned weapons and not just artillery across a tense border.

The area is teetering on the verge of escalation, with drones- motionless, distant, and deniable- opening a new chapter in the India-Pakistan conflict as Washington and another world powers demand restraint.

The Indo-Pak discord is transitioning into a new helicopter era, one in which “invisible eyes” and autonomous precision does guide escalation or restraint. The part that masters drone war didn’t just see the field; they’ll design it, so says Jahara Matisek, a teacher at the US Naval War College, to the BBC.

Pakistan claims that 36 people have been killed and 57 others have been injured in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir as a result of American air strikes and cross-border hearth since Wednesday day. On the other hand, the Indian troops reports at least 16 civilian casualties killed from Pakistani firing. India insists its missile storm was in response to a dangerous terrorist attack last month in Pahalgam, an incident that Islamabad denies any involvement in.

The Pakistani defense announced on Thursday that Karachi, Lahore, and Rawalpindi had been the sites of 25 American drone strikes. Using both professional and weapon-based measures, the apparently Israeli-made Harop uavs were presumably intercepted. India asserted that it had neutralized some Muslim air defense scanners and devices, including one in Lahore, which Islamabad denied.

Getty Images Remnants are being inspected after Indian drone strike on Karachi, Pakistan on May 08, 2025Getty Images

Laser-guided missiles and bombs, drones, and unmanned aerial vehicles ( UAVs ) have become crucial in contemporary warfare, significantly improving the precision and effectiveness of military operations. These can provide coordinates for airstrikes or, if equipped, immediately laser-designate targets, thereby facilitating quick wedding.

Robots can be used as decoys or as a means of disarming army air defenses by flying into disputed airspace to release enemy radar, which can then be intercepted by loitering drones or anti-radiation missiles. In their conflict, Ukraine and Russia both do it in this way. Drones are a force multiple in degrading enemy air defenses without risking guarded aircraft because of their double functions, targeting and triggering, says Prof. Matisek.

According to experts, India’s helicopter fleet is essentially composed of Israeli-made reconnaissance drones like the IAI Searcher and Heron, as well as Harpy and Harop loitering munitions, which double as missiles and can perform precision and autonomous reconnaissance. According to experts, The Harop, in particular, reflects a move toward high-value, precision-targeted war and highlights the growing significance of loitering munitions in contemporary issue.

According to researchers, the Heron serves as India’s “high-altitude eye in the sky” for both peacekeeping and combat operations. The IAI Searcher Mk II has a range of 300 kilometers ( 186 miles ), a service area of 7, 000 meters ( 23, 000 feet ), and is designed for front-line operations.

While many people think India’s combat aircraft numbers are still “moderate,” a recent$ 4 billion offer to buy 31 MQ-9B Predator drones from the US makes a significant increase in its reach potential. They can fly for 40 days and up to 40, 000 feet.

According to experts, India is also developing swarming aircraft techniques, which use large numbers of smaller UAVs to swarm air defenses and contaminate them, allowing more valuable resources to enter.

Ejaz Haider, a Lahore-based defense scientist, reported to the BBC that Pakistan’s aircraft fleet is “extensive and diverse” and includes both imported and indigenous systems.

He claimed that there are “over a thousand drones” in the inventory, which are produced by local manufacturers in China, Turkey, and other countries. The Taiwanese CH-4, the Turkish Bayraktar Akinci, and Pakistan’s personal Burraq and Shahpar robots are just a few examples of significant websites. Also, Pakistan has developed loitering weapons, which has increased its ability to strike.

via Getty Images Anadolu Security forces inspect area after Indian drone strike on Karachi, Pakistan on May 08, 2025.via Getty Images Anadolu

According to Mr. Haider, the Pakistan Air Force ( PAF ) has been implementing unmanned systems successfully for nearly ten years. He added that a key area of focus is the creation of “loyal friend” robots, unmanned aerial vehicles that can communicate with manned aircraft.

According to Prof. Matisek,” India has relyed heavily on Pakistan’s professional assistance, which includes providing Harop and Heron drones, while an continuing arms race is highlighted by Pakistan’s rely on Turkey and Chinese platforms.”

Experts claim that the current drone exchanges between India and Pakistan represent a significant intensification in their conflict. However, they are marked by significant differences from the drone-centric war that the Russia-Ukraine conflict witnessed. Both sides have deployed hundreds of UAVs for security, targeting, and immediate episodes that, making drones a key component of military operations.

A lower-level military option is to use drones [in the ongoing conflict ] rather than fighter planes or heavy weapons. Robots are less heavily armored than guarded aircraft, so in some ways this is a constrained move. The math completely changes, according to Manoj Joshi, an analyst for Indian defense, if this is just a precursor to a larger flying campaign.

Ejaz Haider says the recent aircraft action in Jammu “appears to be a military response to immediate actions, not a full-scale retaliation ] by Pakistan.”

” We may be shocked and awed in a real hostile strike against India.” It would probably be more extensive, involving a number of websites, both manned and unmanned, and aiming for a wider range of goals. According to Mr. Haider, a quite operation would aim to have a significant impact and send a signal of a major escalation beyond the present tit-for-tat exchanges.

Getty Images Indian Army personnel secure the site where missile debris was found in a field, following what the authorities described as an overnight aerial assault by Pakistan involving "drones and missiles," at village Makhanwindi, near Amritsar, India on May 08, 2025. (Photo by Stringer/via Getty Images Anadolu)Getty Images

Researchers believe that robots ‘ impact on the Ukraine field has been more limited and symbolic than the one they have had. Both nations are using their guarded heat forces to launch missiles at one another as well.

According to Mr. Joshi,” the satellite war we’re witnessing may not last long; it could just be the start of a larger conflict.”

This could indicate either a de-escalation or an increase; both options are open to discussion. The course we should go in is questionable because we are at a turning point.

India’s drones are a clear fit for its precision-strike strategy, enabling stand-off targeting without the use of guarded aircraft across borders. Despite this progression, important questions still remain.

Drones reduce the social and operational bar for action, according to Prof. Matisek, by offering options to monitor and strike while attempting to lessen escalation risks.

” But they also introduce fresh increase dynamics: each helicopter that is shot down and whose detector is blind transforms into a potential battleground in this contentious environment between two nuclear powers.”

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