ThaiBev chief applauds success of local projects

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Since 2016, 136, 000 families have been helped by the regional development program nationwide.

PUBLISHED: 28 Sep 2024 at 20: 25

Thapana Sirivadhanabhakdi, president and CEO of Thai Beverage Plc, joins participants in a pha khao ma promotion project that is part of a local economic development programme aimed at helping communities nationwide, at Sustainability Expo 2024, at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center in Bangkok on Saturday. (Photo: Apichart Jinakul)
At Sustainability Expo 2024, held on Saturday at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center in Bangkok, Thapana Sirivadhanabhakdi, president and CEO of Thai Beverage Plc, joins individuals in a ha khao mom development project that is a part of a regional economic development initiative aimed at assisting communities across the country. ( Photo: Apichart Jinakul )

According to Thapana Sirivadhanabhakdi, the chairman and CEO of the company, regional development is flourishing under a project supported by Thai Beverage Plc, which has generated 2.6 billion ringgit in income for 136, 000 communities across the country over the past nine years.

During a meeting of the private sector team for local economic development held during Sustainability Expo 2024 ( SX2024 ) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center in Bangkok, Mr. Thapana discussed the objectives and accomplishments of the program.

Mr. Thapana, who is also the team’s leader and chairman of the local pha khao ma ( Thai traditional loincloth ) project, was pleased with the outcomes of the team’s ongoing collaboration since 2016.

The program focuses on three important areas: crops, running, and community-based hospitality, with the main goal of generating revenue for local areas and enhancing their well-being, he said.

To achieve the ambitions, the emphasis is on improving access to production elements, creating awareness, developing marketing techniques, enhancing communication attention, and ensuring effective management as the project moves forward.

According to Mr. Thapana, the project has largely been supported by the Ministry of Interior’s Department of Community Development, as well as other government departments, the private sector, educational institutions, and civil society.

” More than 1, 690 sub-projects have been launched under this localized business venture. In 2023 only, the task generated over 460 million baht in income for populations nationwide”, he said.

The Market Place Zone hosts an exhibition at SX2024 that highlights products from local communities across the nation and traces the course of the Ha Khao Ma production promotion. The celebration runs from Sept 27 to Oct 6, from 10am to 8pm.

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EU-China in last gasp bid to avoid EV-driven trade war – Asia Times

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China has suggested setting minimum prices for electric vehicles ( EVs ) China ships to the European Union in a negotiated move to stop the bloc’s plans to impose tariffs of 17 to 35.3 % on Chinese EVs.

The European Commission had planned to voting on the tariff proposals on September 25, but it was postponed without cause. The voting will take place within the year beginning September 30 according to Nikkei.

Wang Wentao, the Foreign minister of commerce, and Valdis Dombrovskis, the European Commission’s executive vice president and business commissioner, met in Brussels on September 19 to discuss the vote’s delay.

In a blog on X on September 19, Dombrovskis stated that” Both sides agreed to intensify efforts to find an efficient, legal, and WTO-compatible alternative to the power EV situation.” ” This without prejudice to the EU investigation and its deadlines” .&nbsp,

In a media briefing on Thursday ( September 26 ), He Yongqian, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, stated that both China and the EU have unmistakably indicated political willingness to resolve disputes through consultations.

The two sides agreed to continue discussions over a “price responsibility deal” and totally commit to achieving a mutually satisfactory solution through friendly speech and sessions during the Wang-Dombrovskis deals, she said. &nbsp,

” Now, technical teams from both sides are positively discussing a flexible rate determination option, following the direction set during the deals”, she said. Before the final decision, they are attempting to reach a compromise on a remedy model.

She emphasized that while China is totally committed to protecting the interests of Chinese firms, it has the “utmost sincerity” to resolve disputes effectively through speech and consultations.

Some Chinese experts believe that some EU members who want to avoid a full-fledged trade war with China are interested in China’s request of a “price dedication agreement” and that its proposal is a good one. Nevertheless, they said, the present may not be enough to alter the EU’s tax choice. &nbsp,

Zheng Chunrong, director of the Center for German Research at the School of Foreign Studies Tongji University, told Beijing Daily in an interview that Spain has stated that China and the EU should never engage in a trade conflict while Germany’s position has also become more explicit. &nbsp,

” But, for an opposition message has never reached a level that may prevent the taxes”, he said. ” It’s great that the EU keeps its talks with China. But it’s hard to tell how things may develop”.

At least 15 nations, representing 65 % of the EU’s population, must support the proposed EV tariffs, according to qualified majority voting in the EU. If implemented, the taxes will last for at least five years.

12 out of 27 EU members voted in favor of the EC’s decision to impose temporary tariffs on Chinese EVs in a non-binding voting held in July. They included France, Spain and Italy. Four nations cast ballots opposed to it. The remaining 11 people, including Germany, abstained. &nbsp,

Cui Fan, a professor at the University of International Business and Economics ‘ School of International Trade and Economics, said,” It is very difficult to find enough Western countries to reject the EC’s anti-subsidy sensor effects.”

Cui claimed that they only make up 61.4 % of the Union population and can oppose the tariffs, perhaps if Spain, Italy, and all 11 of the 11 waiting nations joined hands. &nbsp,

Chinese EV manufacturers separately made a proposal to the EU in August to establish least minimum sales and sales quotas to stop the bloc’s EV markets from exploding. But, the EU rejected all these presents.

Our investigation focused on whether these offers may end the harm caused by the subsidies that were found in our investigations and whether these cost commitments could be properly monitored and enforced, according to a EC spokesperson on September 12. ” The Commission has concluded that none of the offers met these requirements” .&nbsp,

After this news, Wang traveled to Europe to make one final push to entrance the EC against the taxes. It’s also unclear, yet, whether his work will work to change Union minds. &nbsp, &nbsp,

One Hubei-based journalist opined that would be absurd for the EU to accept China’s “price dedication” proposal. &nbsp,

He said BYD has already priced its flagship Tang SUV at 72, 000 euros ( 563, 000 yuan ) in Europe for 2025 while the same model was priced at about 200, 000 yuan in China. &nbsp,

He claimed that in order to compete with Western EV manufacturers, the Tang design might need to be priced at 800,000 yuan in the EU. He claimed that requiring Chinese automakers to increase product prices would only harm Union customers ‘ interests. &nbsp,

Hostile trade actions are already in the works. China’s MoC launched anti-dumping investigations into exports of cheese from the EU in August and meat in June.

Last year, China imported 2.6 billion euros ( US$ 2.9 billion ) worth of pork products and 1.76 billion euros of dairy products from the EU. At the same time, China exported 438, 034 power EVs for 9.7 billion dollars to the Union over the same time. &nbsp,

Chinese EV manufacturers may pay more in total value than the EU’s producers of pork and dairy products, but they might be able to more easily withstand the pain given their higher profits. &nbsp,

Read: China targets EU meat in tit-for-tat business spit

Following Jeff Pao on X: &nbsp, @jeffpao3

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Commentary: When everything is viewed from the lens of national security in China, even adoption isn’t safe

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ESCALATING CHINA-US Conflicts

A more plausible reason for China’s international adoption ban lies in the rising Sino-American geopolitical tensions and Beijing’s shift toward a security-centric policy model, as the Russian case suggests the social underpinnings of program termination.

In accordance with this interpretation, China’s choice to halt foreign adoptions is in line with its resistance to sharing genetic information and its efforts to replace European technology with private options.

The root of the issue is China’s rapidly declining diplomatic trust since about 2018; this is where it is at. The COVID-19 crisis only served to worsen this faith deficit, leading to efforts to oversecuritize, a practice that makes every policy issue an existential threat to national security, thus justifying extraordinary measures. This evolving craze has fostered a “looking-glass” result, wherein perceived securitisation in one region instills identical reactions from its rivals.

As the US moves to prevent its semiconductor industry, supply stores and biotech industry, China’s fear intensifies. This stress may convince China to securitise recently mild plan domains, such as foreign adoption, in an attempt to alleviate perceived vulnerabilities.

Prior to the adoption restrictions, countless stories on Chinese media praised the devotion and compassion of British families who adopted Chinese kids with special needs. The contrast between China’s perceived inability to care for disabled children and the success stories of these American-reached children could be used by Washington or “hostile causes” to criticize China’s structure and strengthen National delicate energy.

As an article published in Guancha.cn, a famous Chinese news site noted for its pro-government and West-skeptical opinions, observed when justifying the government’s decision, the instances of adopted children achieving success “are usually over-interpreted by those with hidden intentions, using them as material to compliment the United States”.

This oversecurization may also contribute to China’s rigid approach to international adoption. In the aftermath of Russia’s 2013 adoption ban, the US Department of State successfully negotiated for about 250 children, whose adoptions were already in progress, to join their prospective families. Despite fervent pleas from American families with pending adoptions in China, the Chinese government has not yet displayed this flexibility.

The discordant response from Chinese citizens underscores this issue: While many Chinese citizens express regret and incomprehension regarding their government’s decision, some observers and commentators, including those who have traditionally been critical of the Chinese government, tend to view it as a natural extension of the end of population control measures or as a crucial step in putting an end to a legalized form of child trafficking. Others highlight the difficulties that children face when they are reshaped into families and cultures that are profoundly different from their own.

A foreign journalist, herself an adoptee, described feeling” cathartic” upon seeing China’s international adoptions end.

There is a lack of concern for the fate of more than 50, 000 children in Chinese state orphanages because there is n’t a unified voice in the decision, and few American politicians are willing to speak out on behalf of adoptive families. This dispersed support further limits the ability of US Department of State officials to reach an agreement with Beijing to expedite the adoption process.

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Analysis: Giving warships, funding a naval base – China’s gestures to Cambodia raise eyebrows over regional intent

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Beijing claims almost all of the South China Sea as it is depicted in its so-called nine-dash column, but it has never fully defined what it means. This statement contradicts the sea says of Malaysia, Vietnam, and other Southeast Asian countries.

It would be impossible for China to work from Ream from a defense and military standpoint, according to Dr. Abdul Rahman of the Lowy Institute, from a position of authority in regional waters like the South China Sea or the Strait of Malacca.

” China has already built a number of military installations in the South China Sea, the majority of which were constructed using synthetic territories. These foundations, serving as local launchpads, may play a far more important role than the Ream marine base”, he said.

” Furthermore, the Ream naval base is just 30 miles from a grouping of Taiwanese military services. China conducting military operations there would not make sense because it could endanger sensitive information or make the Asian able to obstruct or prevent its ships.

According to Dr. Abuza from the National War College, China’s wider goal in using the bottom in Ream is to stop the formation of a unified local entrance against its regional states in the South China Sea.

” China’s presence that allows it to focus on Vietnam, which has overlapping states with Beijing in the contested waters”, he explained. ” Moreover, it reinforces China’s supremacy over Cambodia, making the country extremely reliant on Beijing- not just economically, but physically as well”.

China is Cambodia’s largest bilateral donation, merchant, trader, and trading partner, according to an ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute working papers published in March 2023.

With a diplomatic free trade agreement that became effective at the beginning of 2022, China strengthened its place as one of Cambodia’s essential trading partners. The pact eliminates tariffs on 97 % of Cambodian exports to China and 97 % of Chinese exports to China.

Over the past five decades, Cambodia’s exports to China had grown at an annual charge of 10.2 per share, rising from US$ 1 billion in 2017 to US$ 1.63 billion in 2022, according to state data.

China has also greatly invested in Cambodia’s system, including airports, streets, and private improvements such as hotels and casinos.

Data strong Seasia Stats reports that Cambodia is the fourth-largest victim of Foreign aid in Southeast Asia, receiving US$ 17.7 billion by 2024, behind Indonesia, Vietnam and Laos. This includes monetary assistance, financial projects, and building initiatives.

RAISING THE REGIONAL TEMPERATURE?

Experts are divided on whether growing defense ties between China and Cambodia may cause conflicts in the area. Some believe so- mainly with Vietnam, and to a lesser degree, Thailand.

Dr. Abdul Rahman noted that given the ongoing conflicts in the South China Sea, Hanoi may be particularly concerned that China is using Cambodia as a proper tool to impose pressure on its southwestern border.

” Taiwanese leaders view the construction of air defense services at Ream as a significant security threat, especially if it is managed by China,” Ream authorities said. Any applied air surveillance radar could help Chinese military personnel follow Asian aircraft as they travel through southern Vietnam, according to Dr. Abdul Rahman.

China could finally pose a danger to Vietnam from both the north and the south, combined with the prospect of Chinese naval vessels operating from Ream.

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Xi’s property fix has a local government problem – Asia Times

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Local government leaders who appear to have failed to understand the importance of reviving China’s home problems are putting an unforeseen stop to Xi Jinping’s most daring attempt to do so.

The efforts that were announced four months ago had headlines surrounding the 300 billion yuan ( US$ 42.5 billion ) of central bank cash being used to buy up unsold homes. However, the true force of the plan was to encourage local authorities to increase the amount of housing available nationwide.

So far, though, fewer than 30 coast towns out of the more than 200 Beijing hoped to incentivize had heeded the telephone. This raises a enticing question: Are municipal leaders being criminal, or is their silence because they see a bigger portrait that Xi’s group is missing?

It might be the former, however. Local government officials who defy Beijing do n’t typically achieve high status in Communist Party circles. In contrast, provincial functionaries are more likely to succeed by producing economic growth rates and development indicators that are above the national average.

However, it’s likely that local authorities in the world’s funds, who are dealing with aging laborers, are more aware of their balance sheets than Premier Li Qiang or Finance Minister Lan Foan’s workers.

And this Beijing-ordered housing boom may be a result of the nation’s already depressed local government financing vehicle ( LGFV ) debt burden.

More than half of China’s property problems may pull on another two to five years, according to a Bloomberg study of 15 China analysts. If so, China’s negative forces had become much more entrenched.

And depreciation becomes even more difficult to eradicate over time as Japan continues to demonstrate this.

Team Xi rejected an International Monetary Fund proposal next month to launch massive waves of northern federal funding to finish empty housing projects in Asia’s largest business. A governmental collapse of almost US$ 1 trillion is suggested by the IMF.

The 300 billion yuan save deal, which Beijing unveiled in May, is far below the 1 trillion to 5 trillion yuan that some leading economists believe is required to solve the house problems.

The IMF, however, has taken pains to inform Beijing against creating any “expectation of potential state bail-out and so social hazards”, as Zhang Zhengxin, the IMF’s executive producer for China, puts it. Xi’s group, Zhang says,” may continue to apply market-based and rule-of-law rules in completing and delivering these products”.

Michelle Lam of Societe Generale SA uses the word” somewhat disappointing” when she refers to the IMF’s individual caution around. China’s financial jazz may last for as long as Beijing drags its foot on aiming enough financial power at the house industry.

China’s central bank made a number of new policy announcements to boost the economy on Tuesday ( September 24 ). Women’s Bank of China Governor&nbsp, Pan Gongsheng&nbsp, precise methods to reduce to its essential short-term interest rates, improve bank lending to companies and consumers, and lower mortgage rates for existing housing loans.

Pan speculated that there might be a further reduction in reserve requirement ratios of between 0.25 and 0.5 %. Nevertheless, though,” the rhinoceros in the room is the home business”, says Xu Gao, chief analyst at Bank of China International. He continues,” The current plan to maintain the property business is clearly not enough.”

Count Xu among those who believe a 3 trillion yuan investment may be required to stabilize the real estate industry.

Former PBOC Governor Yi Gang made headlines earlier this month when he claimed Beijing officials” should focus on fighting the negative pressure” through “proactive governmental policy and flexible financial plan.”

The PBOC’s concern now appeared to be being addressed, problems that were validated last week by its decision to remain neutral as the Federal Reserve cut US interest costs by 50 basis points.

In certain ways, Beijing’s reluctance to put stimulus in the short-run has had a magic coating. In light of industry conflicts with the US and Europe, according to economist Gabriel Wildau at consulting firm Teneo, Xi and Li are placing a higher priority on raising China’s competitive sport in technology and production.

However, current information on fixed property investments, industrial output, and retail selling suggested Beijing’s 5 % economic growth goal for this time is becoming more and more of a long-shot. This may have propelled the PBOC to take action.

At a business forum in Beijing last week, Zhu Guangyao, a former vice minister of finance, said that in the” short term, we must really focus to be sure to successfully achieve this year’s 2024 growth goals“. He added that” we still have confidence to reach” this year’s 5 %.

As such,” there’s a good chance that the People’s Bank of China will lower rates and banks to lower]benchmark rates ] soon”, write analysts at Commerzbank. The Fed rate cuts allow room for PBOC to reduce, and lackluster growth necessitates monetary policy easing.

The chance of a vicious economic cycle rises without more incisive policy decisions. In particular, the plunge in land sales that’s currently decimating local governments ‘ budgets could gain momentum. That would make it even more difficult for municipalities to finance their current priorities, ignoring the possibility of acquiring excess real estate to save Xi’s Beijing administration.

Local governments could in fact attempt to raise money to buy up housing through special bond issues. However, it is only if municipal leaders can find enough buyers before selling numerous local government bonds. If all investors, regardless of size, have doubts about China’s financial system, that is easier said than done.

Yet longer-term reforms are even more important. Although exports and domestic demand-driven growth are the focus of recent efforts to rebalance the growth engines, progress is slower than anticipated. Similar to how social safety nets are constructed to encourage households to save less and spend more, is the same.

The LGFV piece of the puzzle continues to be a significant wildcard. These roughly 4, 000 entities created to fund local infrastructure projects carry debts topping$ 8.5 trillion, by the IMF’s estimates.

One problem is the lack of information about these debts. Analysts at Fitch Ratings, for example, are skeptical about Beijing’s claims that the ratios of LGFV debt relative to local GDP have declined.

Rather, moves to reclassify debt to avoid LGFV status, often to bypass bond issuance restrictions, largely explain this supposed trend.

As Fitch analyst Harry Hu notes, the rating company identified 324 entities, about 8 % of the 4, 000 entities that, by June 2024, were no longer classified as LGFVs on a widely used Chinese bond data platform.

We rate 34 of these businesses, which indicates that reclassification was likely to facilitate bond issuance rather than be a result of business transformation, Hu says.

However, the LGFV conundrum is a challenging one. Independent economist Jonathon Sine explains that” a decade ago Beijing not only set out to constrain LGFVs, but eliminate them,” in a recent report on the “rise and fall” of these off-balance sheet entities. Fiscal restructuring proved insufficient. Localities still have incredibly broad roles and mandates today. Will they be forced to abdicate or will they find themselves without any funding?

Sine adds that “in this evolving context, will local officials face new incentives to keep their all-purpose handyman, the LGFV, alive and kicking? Will LGFVs vanish as Lenin once predicted the Soviet Union would? Who will make them? With a new round of audits sweeping the nation alongside top-down inspection tours and the ongoing anti-corruption campaign, what might become of China’s … LGFVs”?

As 2025 approaches, it’s anyone’s guess. However, it suffices to say that the extent to which local governments cooperate with Beijing will be crucial for property sector stability in the long run.

Finding a more activist response from Beijing may be necessary, in terms of providing state funding and developing a mechanism to revive non-performing assets. &nbsp,

Another key issue: Xi and Li ensuring expeditious and transparent implementation. That calls for a bold and obvious shift away from focusing on economic advancement.

Over the past two years, Xi’s team has stuttered from pledge to pledge to develop a plan to significantly lower the ranks of property developers by removing toxic assets from their balance sheets.

One possibility about which investors have long buzzed is Beijing adopting a&nbsp, Resolution&nbsp, Trust&nbsp, Company-like&nbsp, model the&nbsp, US used to address the&nbsp, savings-and-loan crisis of the 1980s. That could save a decade in Japan, where a sector essential to growth gains a new lease on life.

Doing so would afford Xi’s reform team&nbsp, an opportunity to confound the naysayers and reinvigorate&nbsp, China Inc. Additionally, it would fulfill Xi’s promises to prioritize the quantity over the quality of growth. Change the narrative that China is repeating the mistakes Japan made in the 1990s as a result of its bad-loan crisis and deflationary nightmare.

However, for the moment, at least one thing is certain: Beijing’s hopes that local governments will come to grips with the housing crisis are n’t working so far.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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Serbia moves to reintroduce compulsory military service

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SARAJEVO: Serbia’s government ministers on Friday ( Sep 20 ) agreed to reintroduce compulsory military service which was abolished 14 years ago, President Aleksandar Vucic said, praising the decision as an important step to improve the country’s defence readiness. A working class may be established to start the process, accordingContinue Reading

Storm Soulik weakens in Thailand but rain persists

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Discussed: 20 Sep 2024 at 18: 54

Officials survey a flooded road in Trat province on Friday. About 50 provinces have been warned to expect rain from the weakened Storm Soulik until Monday. (Photo: Jakkrit Waewkraihong)
On Friday, authorities in Trat state examine a flooded street. About 50 regions have been given advance notices that the weakened Storm Soulik will likely experience fog until Monday. ( Photo: Jakkrit Waewkraihong )

Forecasters predict that while Tropical Storm Soulik spreads throughout Thailand and will continue to soak some areas this trip despite losing power as it progresses.

About 50 counties, including Bangkok, may experience rain or heavy rains through Monday as per the most recent warning from the Meteorological Department, which was released on Friday night. Strong winds and great lakes are also anticipated for the region’s coastal Andaman during this time, it continued.

Around 10am on Friday, Soulik entered Thailand via Nakhon Phanom in the Northeast and was upgraded to a low pressure system, as determined by the weathermen. They continued,” It is moving westward and still has an impact on the country, particularly the north and northeast regions,” they continued.

Some national gardens have been closed because bad weather may thwart customers. Additionally, municipal officials are putting together plans to deal with potential flood.

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Shanghai hit by second typhoon days after historic storm

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Shanghai, the country’s largest city, was hit by its second typhoon days after it received its strongest storm in 75 years when roads and neighborhoods were flooded on Friday ( Sep 20 ).

Typhoon Pulasan made land on Thursday evening in the state’s Fengxian city, with a peak wind velocity of 83kmh, according to state-run Xinhua news agency.

Although downpours continued in the area on Friday day, the storm is “is forecast to gradually diminish as it moves inland,” according to Xinhua.

Although no serious harm or deaths have been reported so far, movies that were posted on social media Friday showed Shanghai people wading through calf-level waters in some neighborhoods.

As the wind made its way toward Shanghai on Thursday, parts of the city’s typhoon call levels increased.

Typhoon Bebinca, which was the biggest storm to strike the megacity since 1949, wreaked havoc on Monday with Pulasan.

Bebinca felled more than 1, 800 branches and left 30, 000 communities without power, with government evacuating more than 400, 000 people across Shanghai ahead of the storm.

According to experts, severe weather is becoming more frequent and intense because of climate change, which is being exacerbated by greenhouse gas emissions.

China produces the most greenhouse chemicals globally, but its per capita emissions are insignificant in comparison to the United States’.

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The weaponization of everything has begun – Asia Times

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One of those activities that many have speculated was on the sky is the use of common materials in 21st-century issues is the attack on pagers and walkie-talkies ( and possibly even solar sections ).

However, there were those who, as security researcher Mark Galeotti put it, believed this “weaponization of all” was akin to Hollywood films or cyberpunk crime thrillers.

According to them, turning pagers or phones into incendiary devices was possibly not possible both technologically and logistically. Only the most anxious person may believe that a circumstance like this could actually turn out to be true.

Yet it has today happened. And it has resulted in the deaths of 37 people, the injuries of thousands more, and the potential for severe corporate disorganization.

The ability to communicate with your troops or extremist network has always been a necessity in fighting. And as the geographical scope of conflict grows, the ability to communicate is even more crucial.

An institution needs to be able to rely on its communication devices to be trustworthy. And it is important to have faith in the real people they are speaking to, not the artificial intelligence ( a growing concern in the face of “deep fakes” )

Members of an organization also need to discover ways to prevent being heard, which is a constant worry when communication tools are continually increasing in both strength and difficulty.

Therefore, any business in the twenty-first century must be wary of the dangers of digital disruption and of the various ways that information and communication can be hacked, hacked, and manipulated.

However, the transformation of common means of communication and information into practical arms leads to a new breed of fear and paranoia.

How worried should we be?

There are many individuals who will say that the things we are seeing in Lebanon will undoubtedly be bringing to a nearby area.

In a time of “open modern innovation,” Audrey Kurth Cronin, director of the Institute for Strategy & Technology at Carnegie Mellon University in the US, has asserted that one of the biggest safety issues is the possibility of devastating development by non-state stars.

In other words, we are living in a world where more and more people and businesses can use destructive systems. The wonderful rights no longer possess the most advanced technology.

Following the attacks on September 17 and 18, the Syrian army carried out controlled blasts of mobile communications products. &nbsp, Photo: EPA-EFE via The Conversation / Wael Hamzeh

There might be world leaders who feel they can test the potential of the techniques that their thieves and technologists have been considering and experimenting with in a time of growing political tensions.

In a time when online systems are in use, two colonels in the Chinese government published a book about the resurgence of global politics and war in 1999. I discussed their ideas in my 2023 text Theorising Future Conflict: War Out to 2049.

One of their most disturbing feedback is about the possible use of everything in upcoming global wars:” These ] new idea arms did make regular people and military men very shocked that common things can also become weapons with which to engage in war.”

The situations in Lebanon does give us a sense of what these Chinese martial visionaries saw coming. Naturally, whether states are able to adapt to a constantly evolving protection landscape is still up for debate. We are in a period of rapid shift for a variety of new technology.

State with more pressing issues and limited tools might have more to worry about. Additionally, as this new era of conflict transitions from visionary speculation to terrible reality, organizations like Hezbollah may be entering a new hazard.

Geopolitical affect

We do n’t know whether more attacks will be launched in Lebanon, but the events are still ongoing. Additionally, we are unsure of the region’s potential broader political influence as a result of the attacks.

However, for the time being, it appears that there is a modern and political divide between those who will suffer from these fresh tactics in this weaponization of everything and those who will be able to launch extremely inventive attacks on individuals and organizations from a distance.

It seems doubtful that hostile nations like Russia would use any threats they discovered in the products used in daily life to fuel a global conflict, according to countries like the UK.

The different punishment strategies, such as nuclear arsenals, which involve mutually assured destruction, at least temporarily, keep a large portion of our conflict from going to war.

And we would probably have far more to worry about than exploding smartphones if political tensions did achieve a level where Vladimir Putin’s Russia considered these novel military options.

However, non-state players may not be frightened of using this kind of invasion. So we must hope they do n’t possess the serious organizational skills necessary to turn everyday objects into explosives, and we must also hope security services around the world are monitoring new threats closely.

In times of serious and fast change in AI, drones, drones and attacks, the only certainty is doubt in this complex, and often terrible, world we are living in.

Mark Lacy is senior lecturer of politics, philosophy and religion, Lancaster University

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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China-Philippines retreat, for now, from Sabina Shoal row – Asia Times

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MANILA – The Philippines and China have successfully resurrected a simmer over the Sabina Shoal in the South China Sea, evoking at least a momentary de-escalation in maritime conflicts that some fear could lead to an armed conflict.

The National Maritime Council, the newly established joint work pressure overseeing the Philippines ‘ South China Sea plan, &nbsp, announced&nbsp, on September 15 that the Philippine Coast Guard premier BRP Teresa Magbanua was leaving the bay area after a tough five-month-long mission.

China reportedly withdrew its coast guard and military forces from the area of the disputed property feature in the Spratly group of islands soon after.

According to Philippine officials, China had parked more than 200 vessels – a combined force composed of Chinese Coast Guard (CCC ) and Chinese maritime militia ( CMM) – in the Spratlys, with as many as 71 deployed close to the Sabina Shoal.

The Philippine government’s swift response to criticism of the vessel’s withdrawal was seen as a de facto” surrender” and echoed China’s claim that its pressure tactics had “outsmarted” the Ferdinand Marcos Jr. administration.

Even though the shift occurred shortly after the most recent Bilateral Consultation Mechanism (BCM) conference between major Philippine and Taiwanese diplomats in Beijing, the Spanish state has insisted that it was not a part of any agreement with China.

Major Spanish officials have emphasized their devotion to a continued and expanded existence in the Sabina Shoal region, including through regular deployments of naval assets and police warships.

The BRP Teresa Magbanua, according to NMC chairman Lucas Bersamin, “against enormous odds” when confronted with” an invasion of China’s larger fleet of intruders.” He said the ship would continue its goal as “defenders of our independence” in the area after being resupplied, repaired and its staff recharged.

The Sabina Shoal ( “Escoda” to Filipinos and” Xianbin Jiao” to Chinese ) is situated just 75 nautical miles ( 140 kilometers ) from Philippine shores, well its Exclusive Economic Zone ( EEZ ) extending from the island of Palawan.

China views the disputed function as part of its extensive exploration of nearly the entire South China Sea and its functions as defined in its nine-dash range map, while the Philippines claims that the low-tide ascent is a part of its western table.

China’s expansive claims were dismissed as incompatible with international law in an arbitration case brought by Manila in 2016 that was heard at The Hague under the auspices of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea ( UNCLOS). Beijing disregarded the ultimate decision, which lacked an enforcement mechanism, and boycotted the arbitration proceedings.

Both sides were worried about one another’s motives, which contributed to the most recent upheaval. In light of concerns that China may have been secretly engaging in island-building actions in the disputed place, Manila immediately deployed its most valuable coast guard warship to Sabina Shoal.

The Philippines was earlier up in arms when reports emerged of China’s possible restoration of another low-tide altitude, known as Sandy Cay, situated in the vicinity of the Philippine-occupied Thitu Island in the Spratlys. The Philippine Navy&nbsp, deployed a warship&nbsp, to the place to inform China against any major movements.

For its part, China’s People’s Liberation Army ( PLA ) recently conducted exercises near the Sabina Shoal. Beijing was reportedly alarmed by the PCG’s rollout of its flagship ship, which was believed to be worried that the Philippines was about to try to fortify the disputed Second Thomas Shoal.

By grounding the BRP Sierra Madre ship there since the late 1990s, the Philippines has maintained a de facto military presence over the strategically located have ( also claimed by China ).

The Southeast Asian nation properly fortified the deteriorating base through subsequent transfers of building materials despite ongoing harassment from Chinese forces, including numerous collisions and even injuries sustained by Asian troops.

China increased its reputation and harassment strategies in the Sabina Shoal to stop a situation like this, despite the Philippines ‘ repeated denials of plans to establish a “forward base” there.

Beijing remains unconvinced and quickly reminded its Southeast Asian rival of its preponderance of force after deploying CCG 5901, the world’s largest coast guard ship known as” The Monster” ,&nbsp, to shadow&nbsp, and intimidate the BRP Teresa Magbanua.

Last month, Chinese vessels blocked Spanish supplies operations, thus forcing the latter to update basic requirements for its forces in the area&nbsp, via plane.

During a routine resupply mission to nearby islands in the Spratlys, Chinese vessels engaged in dangerous maneuvers against two PCG Multi-Role Response Vessels ( BRP Cape Engao and BRP Bagacay ) during a dangerous maneuver.

The PCG boats were also damaged by the collisions, but the CCG maintained that it was legitimately responding to the protests by Filipino rivals who “illegally entered” the region without consent and “deliberately” collided with its boats.

Shortly after, Chinese troops went so far as apparently ramming into the BRPTeresa Magbanua, raising worries of a strong military fight.

The US immediately offered its Filipino mutual defense treaty allies, including possible joint inspections and supplies missions in the contested areas, for the weight of the condition.

Major Filipino leaders have however indicated that they would prefer to rely on their own resources, despite some who have boldly called for a international anti-China empire as well as a revision of the Philippine-US Mutual Defense Treaty to lower the bar for British military action.

” We did not withdraw, and this did not happen during the most recent BCM. People might think we gave in, but in reality, we did n’t”, Admiral Alexander Lopez, the chief official of the Marcos supervision on the South China Sea, said during a recent press conference.

He continued,” We stood our ground at the conference in Beijing, and our department of foreign affairs assured us that our existence would continue at the reef, so it’s not a withdrawal.”

” The mayor’s mandate is to maintain our reputation in Escoda Shoal”, he added during the current press conference at the Malacañang Palace. ” When we say presence, strategic presence, not just physical appearance … I just want to make clear that our existence is not limited to sending a single ship”, the commander added.

” Even if&nbsp, Teresa Magbanua&nbsp, left, it did not diminish our presence in the area because we have other methods to track”, the Spanish captain insisted, citing the Philippines ‘ implementation of patrol aircraft and security features to monitor developments in the contested place.

He also made it clear that the PCG has already set up a new vessel to take the place of the departing flagship in order to establish a Spanish proper presence in the area. We have not lost anything, according to ford Jay Tarriela of the PCG in his own press conference this year.

” ]Sabina ] Shoal, no matter how many instances we intend to go there, we will be able to patrol and deploy our vessel”, he added.

Top Philippine officials ‘ vehement protestations came in response to charges made by local opponents and islamists who have taken issue with the Marcos Jr. management of stumbling against China.

However, the Philippines has yet to fully utilize its full range of capabilities, according to prominent Filipino managers like original Vice Admiral Rommel June Ong.

We communicate as though we have used up all of our toolkits, he once said to the publisher. He added that the Philippines has the opportunity to conduct joint patrols with allies and, if necessary, to ask for immediate American help if the situation escalates to a dangerous level.

” The Sabina Shoal standoff is not an isolated challenge. We are confronting]a more comprehensive ] direct challenge across the whole South China Sea…]but ] we]also] have a full range of options to respond”, he added, likening the sea showdown with China as more marathon than sprint.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Richeydarian

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