Indian cosmology, Industry 4.0 and the coming end of work – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

India’s ancient sages believed that a balanced society relies on the contribution of four “varnas”, generic categories representing workers, merchants, protectors, and teachers. When one of the four varnas is neglected or sidelined, society becomes conflicted and fails to reach its full potential.

The varna concept later devolved into a rigid caste system (jāti), used for political oppression, but its original framework remains valuable for understanding the modern world. The varna concept suggests that communism failed because it sidelined the merchants, and that capitalism is failing because it sidelines the workers.

Scholars have drawn parallels between the varna concept and Marxism, equating class struggle with “caste struggle.” They equate workers and merchants in the varna concept with labor and capital in Marxism. However, the four categories of the varna concept offer a more nuanced view of society and have a cosmological basis.

Varna is part of an ancient Vedic prophesy. The four varnas take turns leading society. Each varna stage advances the human condition to the next level until it reaches a new spiritual age. The prophesy is comparable to the Second Coming in Abrahamic traditions. Both offer a vista to a better world to come.

But the true value of the varna system today is that it offers a different lens for looking at the contemporary world with its many apparent contradictions, complexities, and conflicts, including the seemingly intractable conflict between the US and China.

Varna

The concept of varna was first mentioned in the Vedas around 1500 BCE. The ancient sages observed that people naturally gravitate toward specific roles within society. They classified these roles into four generic types or varnas: merchants, workers, protectors, and teachers.

Central to the varna concept is the idea that humanity moves through cycles in which each varna plays a leading role in advancing civilization, from barbarism to enlightenment. Once this cycle is completed, it starts again, reflecting the Vedic view of time as cyclical.

The four varnas cover all social human activity and are interdependent. All four are essential to a functioning society, but they hold distinct worldviews and have different desires, needs, and values.

– Teachers/Spiritual Seekers (Vipra): Enlighten others by valuing the mind, cultivating spiritual and scientific knowledge, and creating laws enforced by warriors.

– Warriors/Protectors (Kshatriya): Driven by competition, they value strength and valor, safeguarding society through order and security.

– Merchants/Entrepreneurs (Vaeshya): Skilled in managing resources, they advance society’s material prosperity.

– Workers (Sudra): Focused on practical labor, empathetic with others. They value security, but given their numbers, they can bring the system down if their needs are not met.

Varnas can overlap in each individual. Most people have traits of two or more varna types. A merchant type can also have a spiritual inclination, and a worker type can also have a merchant impulse. But one of the four varnas typically predominates in each individual.

The malignant caste system that developed in later centuries was the result of politics and human vanity. In the words of modern spiritual teacher Sadhguru, things went wrong “when the goldsmith started to feel superior to the blacksmith.” The caste system transformed the varnas from psychological profiles to lineages.

Modern applications

Despite the varna concept being tainted by centuries of abuse, it has found modern, constructive applications.

Australian scholars Peter Hayward and Joseph Voros developed the Sarkar Game, a role-playing game that is used in corporate training programs. Participants take turns assuming the role of one of the four varnas. This fosters empathy and understanding by stepping into the perspectives of others.

The game, created in collaboration with Professor Sohail Inayatullah, Chair in Futures Studies at UNESCO, helps participants navigate social dynamics and problematic hierarchies. When people adopt different varna roles, they make more informed decisions that address the concerns of all parties.

The Sarkar Game is named after Indian spiritual teacher Prabhat Ranjan Sarkar (1921-1990), founder of the socio-spiritual PROUT movement. PROUT promotes an all-encompassing social program based on the varna cycle, emphasizing physical, educational, cultural, and spiritual well-being.

Professor Inayatullah is one of PROUT’s most prominent proponents.

Varna and futurist Lawrence Taub

Varna is also central to the work of American futurist and macrohistorian Lawrence Taub (1936-2016). Taub made the daring claim that the Varna cycle can be mapped to actual (linear) human history.

Taub based his claim on the specific characteristics of the four varnas: their worldviews, ruling elites, sources of power, etc. He argued that one of the four varnas was predominant in specific cultural regions throughout human history up to the present time.   

In Taub’s model, the first Spiritual Age, Satyayuga I, was the prehistoric, animistic period. This age was global, not confined to specific regions. People believed that animals, plants, rivers, and mountains were imbued with a spiritual essence. Shaman leaders mediated the relationship between humans and nature.

The Spiritual Age was followed by the Warrior Age, the age of heroic conquest. It introduced the horrors of large-scale war but also advanced the human condition. Warrior kings Constantine and Ashoka spread Christian and Buddhist spiritual consciousness around the world.

The subsequent Merchant Age began in Europe in the early 17th century. It was marked by the Dutch Revolt against the Spanish occupiers. The Dutch Republic was ruled by merchants. They opened the world’s first stock exchange and created the Duch East-India Company, the first chartered, globe-spanning multinational trading company.

The current Worker Age began in the late 19th century when the Industrial Revolution gathered steam. Workers formed unions to fight for better working conditions, organizing strikes to press their demands. Solidarity was their most potent weapon and they gradually made progress.

In the 20th century, most industrialized countries introduced free basic education and social welfare programs. Even the US, the bulwark of capitalism, created a social safety net. President Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society introduced Medicare for the elderly and Medicaid for the vulnerable.

Merchant fightback

Transitions between varna stages are marked by struggle. The ongoing shift from the Merchant Age to the Worker Age is no exception. The merchants, who retained an outsized influence on society, used a retrograde ideology, neoliberalism, in an attempt to reverse the gains of the workers.

In the 1980s, US President Ronald Reagan and British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher embraced neoliberalism. They called for a reduction of the role of government in the economy, deregulation, privatization, free markets, and reducing the so-called welfare state.

Neoliberalism was a partial return to the laissez-faire capitalism of the 19th century. The merchants prioritized profits over people and moved factories to low-income countries. They deindustrialized a large part of the US and alienated millions of workers.  

Moreover, the American economy became increasingly financialized. Everything from real estate and sports franchises to art objects were traded like commodities. Money became an asset to make more money rather than to produce goods or services. The concentration of wealth increased and income disparity returned to levels not seen since the 19th century.

Ironically, billionaire entrepreneur Donald Trump was the first president to seriously challenge the neoliberal power structure. While his supporters were mostly workers, Trump had a merchant worldview. As president, he mostly adhered to the neoliberal agenda of his predecessors but gave neoliberalism a nationalistic twist.

Neoliberalism opened up the world economy and stimulated global trade, but it had a fundamental flaw. Antithetical to government interference in the economy, it prevented the country from setting national goals to deal with a changing world. The problems caused by a lack of planning and foresight became apparent in the first decades of the 21st century.

Instead of developing a long-term vision, the US government simply reacted ad hoc to global challenges. It resorted to sanctions, tariffs, subsidies for vulnerable domestic industries, and the weaponization of the dollar. The latter had the opposite of its intended effect, resulting in a global movement to de-dollarize bilateral trade.

China’s market reforms

The start of the neoliberal era coincided with China’s market reforms under Deng Xiaoping. Deng opened the country to foreign investment and allowed commerce to flourish. Communism under Mao Zedong had sidelined the merchants, but Deng, putting pragmatism over ideology, reintegrated the merchants into Chinese society.

As was the case in Russia, China’s communism movement was a revolt against the merchants, both domestic and foreign (neo) colonialists who had plundered China for a century. Led by the intelligentsia (vipras), the communist revolution was widely supported by the workers and the warriors.

Deng’s reform, which prioritized outcomes over ideology, transformed China into a global economic powerhouse. Using 5, 10, and even 50-year plans, the Chinese economy grew at breathtaking speed. The goal was Xiaokang or the creation of a “moderately prosperous society.”

Deng’s market reforms liberalized the economy, but the Communist Party retained control, in part to prevent the merchants from building a political power base and coopting government policy.

When tech billionaire Jack Ma, founder of e-commerce giant Alibaba, questioned the economic policies of the Chinese government, the government cut him down to size to let him know who is in charge.

Other billionaires got the message. Zhong Shanshan, the billionaire founder of a bottled water company, set up the “Common Prosperity Fund.” Tech giants Tencent, Alibaba, and other big companies made large contributions to the fund or launched similar initiatives in the name of “common prosperity.”

China’s rise was spectacular. The Chinese middle class today is the largest in the world by far. But its rise was predictable. In the 1980s, Japan virtually destroyed the Western consumer electronics industry and the Western automobile industry came close to meeting the same fate, rescued only by import restrictions.

China, ten times larger than Japan, applied a similar formula. Taub calls it teamwork capitalism informed by the worker worldview. He wrote: “Both value society (the State) over the individual. They stress conformity, group-mindedness, linkage, cooperation, a collective attitude, sensitivity to others, and a desire to live securely.”

The end of work

Worker varna qualities will play a key role in the Fourth Industrial, the next stage of technological development. Industry 4.0 combines multiple technologies and the social sciences to integrate Industry 4.0 into daily life. China is leading in most of the technologies that are crucial to the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

Barring unforeseen circumstances, China’s economic and technological influence in the world is likely to increase. For the US to keep up, it needs a plan. The same applies to the rudderless EU, like the US taken over by neoliberals. Without a plan or destination, the ship of state is lost at sea, at the mercy of the force of history.

Taub warns against the West imitating China. The Worker Age is the shortest of the four varna ages and will be superseded by the new Spiritual Age, Satyayuga II. Harbingers of this new era are the growing interest in yoga, meditation, mindfulness and ecology.

Taub argues that several traits cultivated during the merchant era – such as a well-developed ego and individualism – were out of step with the Worker Age, but these merchant traits will align more closely with Satyayuga II than the Confucian-inspired emphasis on teamwork and prioritizing society over the individual.

This may be true but the world must first navigate the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Industry 4.0 will gradually lead to the end of most work and transform society. China leads this transition and has the economies of scale to set global standards. It is bound to play a key role in mediating the transition to Setyayuga II.

Continue Reading

Kolkata trams: Iconic Indian city landmark faces extinction

By:
On:
In: Asia
AFP In this photo taken on September 8, 2024, passengers commute in a tram along a street in Kolkata. Introduced in the sprawling eastern city in 1873 during the early days of the imperial British Raj, trams in Kolkata were initially horse-drawn, then steam-driven. Electric-powered trams took to the streets in 1900. AFP

Last week, authorities in the Indian city of Kolkata announced plans to eliminate trams entirely, retaining only a small heritage loop. In response, a group of activists is fighting to ensure that trams remain a vital mode of transport rather than mere nostalgic joyrides. Sandip Roy reports.

In February 2023, Kolkata celebrated 150 years of its tramways with music, cake, a beauty parade of vintage trams, including a century-old wooden car, and a cheerful tram conductor, Roberto D’Andrea, who travelled all the way from Melbourne, Australia.

Melbourne and Kolkata boast two of the oldest operational tramways in the world. Melbourne’s trams date back to 1885. Kolkata’s first tram, a horse-drawn one, started in 1873.

That’s where the similarities end.

Melbourne’s tram system is going strong despite the government once attempting to get rid of them. The system has been upgraded and some trams are solar-powered.

Kolkata’s trams have been steadily declining over the years. From 52 routes in the 1970s, down to 25 in 2015 and now to just three.

The tram cars rattle and wheeze, having not been updated in years. Even the signs inside have not changed. “Beware of pickpockets”, “No change available for 100 rupees ($1.19; $0.89) or 50” and “To stop the car please ring the bell only once”.

Now, the state government has announced that it wants to do away with trams entirely, save for one small loop as a heritage route.

But a dogged group of tram activists is fighting back.

“It’s a huge backward step as cities worldwide are ‘decarbonising transport’ because of global warming and climate change,” says Mr D’Andrea, who has helped foster a Kolkata-Melbourne tram friendship over the years.

“More than 400 cities run tram systems. Cities that dismantled their tramways are rebuilding them at great expense in places like Sydney and Helsinki and all over France. Hong Kong runs trams at high frequency on narrow streets,” he says.

But West Bengal transport minister Snehasis Chakraborty told the media: “The population and vehicular count of Kolkata have multiplied several times but the city’s roads have not widened. Road space continues to hover around 6% which is way less than Mumbai’s 18% and Delhi’s 10%.”

Both those cities once had trams. Mumbai had double-decker ones. Both have done away with them, leaving Kolkata as the only Indian city to hold onto the trundling streetcars.

In a way they have become emblematic of the city itself.

The city has other landmarks – the steel Howrah bridge, the white-domed Victoria Memorial monument, the colonial buildings in the city’s centre. But just as London has its iconic red double-decker buses, Kolkata has its trams. The ding-ding sound of the first tram of the day rattling down streets was the alarm clock many in Kolkata woke up to.

They are a familiar sight in films made in the state.

“I have used trams in two of my films and the tram depot as well,” says filmmaker Anjan Dutt.

Mahanagar (1963), by celebrated filmmaker Satyajit Ray, opens with a stunning two-minute-long tram sequence, sparks flying from the overhead cables before the camera moves inside to settle on the protagonist’s tired face as he returns home from work. Here, the tram stands in for the city itself, both its dreams and the daily grind.

In fact, Kolkata’s Belgachia tram depot, once bustling with workmen repairing, maintaining, even building trams, nowadays often doubles as a film set. “Even on a working day I saw films being shot in the workshop,” says Subir Bose, a tram company worker who retired in 2022 after 39 years of service. “A Kolkata film means they have to show a tram.”

Getty Images Trams in KolkataGetty Images

Trams are very much part of the history of the city and its sense of itself.

In 1902, Calcutta as it was known then, became the first Asian city with electric trams. Even after independence, the Calcutta Tramways Company was run from London and was listed on the London Stock Exchange till 1968. The cars were built by companies with names like Burn Standard and Jessop.

And it wasn’t just a transportation system. The tram lines knit the city together.

When bloody Hindu-Muslim riots gripped Calcutta during partition in 1947, tram workers patrolled the city in empty trams to help restore normalcy.

“My own father helped save some people from a mob,” says tram driver Gopal Ram. “Tram workers were like a family. It didn’t matter if you were Hindu or Muslim.”

Mr Ram’s great grandfather Antu Ram was a tram employee from the steam-powered days. His grandfather Mahavir and father Jagannath worked for the trams as well. Mr Ram retired recently, the fourth and last generation of his family in Kolkata trams.

In some ways, the mystery is that Kolkata’s trams have survived this long.

“In the 1950s and 60s, during the personal automobile boom, people were getting rid of trams everywhere, not just in India,” says transport consultant Suvendu Seth.

“Now they are making a comeback. The light rail in many cities in the United States is just a newer version of trams. It’s sad that we had it all the time and are neglecting it instead of improving it.”

Mr Seth says that instead of complaining about lack of road space, an innovative solution could be to make some roads open only to pedestrians and trams.

AFP oberto D'Andrea, tram conductor of Melbourne, enjoying the joyride in a newly decorated tram to celebrate the 20th anniversary (1996 - 2016) of Kolkata Melbourne Tramjatra approaching Esplanade, on December 10, 2016 in Kolkata, IndiAFP

Debashis Bhattacharyya, a retired academic and president of the Calcutta Tram Users Association, thinks trams survived in Kolkata all these years because they connected the city’s schools, hospitals and cinemas.

In the 1990s, as the count of cars and buses increased, the then Communist government in the state called trams “obsolete” and wanted to get rid of them.

“I protested,” says Mr Bhattacharyya. “If trams went, I felt my whole existence was threatened. I did exhibitions, slide shows, brought in foreign experts. The government should be applying for UNESCO heritage status for trams instead of trying to kill it off. ”

Recently, activists have been trying to use culture to save trams.

Since 1996, filmmaker Mahadeb Shi has been organising the Tramjatra festival, often in collaboration with Mr D’Andrea. Art students paint the trams and local bands perform in the streetcars.

Each Tramjatra has a theme, like Nobel laureate Rabindranath Tagore’s Gitanjali or the city’s Durga Puja festival.

“Tramjatra helped expose younger people to trams too,” says Shi.

One north Kolkata tram route was reopened recently. The West Bengal Transport Corporation also tried to make trams cool again with special projects like a tram library, an Independence Day special tram and a short-lived Tram World museum.

AFP A tram rolls along a main road which is usually jammed with traffic, during a 12-hour general strike in Kolkata on January 22, 2009. AFP

When Kolkata received a C40 Cities “Green Mobility” award in Copenhagen in 2019, mayor Firhad Hakim said trams were a key part of his vision to make the city’s transportation all-electric by 2030.

But now he seems to have forgotten that pledge. The government admits trams are a “green” mode of transport but says they are investing in other forms instead – electric buses and cars and expanding the underground metro system.

Mr Bhattacharyya says tram routes have been gobbled up by tuk-tuks which generate more employment and votes for the government. The tram depots also sit on valuable real estate the government can sell.

But Shi insists the final bell hasn’t rung yet, as the issue is now with the Calcutta High Court, which formed an advisory committee last year to explore how Kolkata’s tram services can be restored and maintained, with the state awaiting the committee’s report before taking further action.

Mr Bose, the retired tram worker, says the government could have shut down the trams long ago, but that something held it back every time. Perhaps because it too senses what trams mean for the city, he says.

“Three things made Kolkata Kolkata – the Howrah Bridge, the Victoria Memorial and the trams. It’s heart-breaking to think we could be losing one of them.”

Continue Reading

Philippines drops a Typhon missile gauntlet on China – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

MANILA – The Philippines and China are staging dueling patrols and exercises this week in the South China Sea, the latest maneuvers in their ever-escalating maritime disputes. But recent moves on land threaten to tilt their tensions to a dangerous new level.

In what could evolve into a Cuban-like missile crisis, Manila recently announced it would “indefinitely” host America’s state-of-the-art Typhon missile systems, a mid-range weapon the US could bring to bear in any conflict with China over Taiwan.

Despite strong opposition by China, and initial denials by Filipino officials, there are rising indications that the Philippine military intends to keep the much-vaunted American missile systems on its soil for the long term, or even “forever”, as military chief Romeo Brawner recently quipped.  

As one senior Filipino official bluntly told the media, the Philippine government wants to give China “sleepless nights” by keeping the missile system on its soil.

The Typhon saga began earlier this year ahead of annual Philippine-US joint Balikatan exercises, the biggest ever staged.

In a “historic first”, the Pentagon deployed the newly developed missile system – capable of launching missiles including SM-6 missiles and Tomahawks over 1,600 kilometers (994 miles) – to mark a “significant step in our partnership with the Philippines.”

When China started to criticize the deployment, both American and Filipino officials were quick to downplay the move as a purely logistical exercise. In July, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi issued a strongly worded statement on the issue while accusing Manila and Washington of provoking a regional arms race.

China’s top diplomat reiterated the point during his recent trip to New York for the United Nations General Assembly, where he warned that US deployment of intermediate-range missiles in the Philippines “undermines regional peace and stability.”

During Yi’s conversations with his South Korean counterpart, Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul, in New York last weekend, the Chinese envoy reiterated that the deployment of any American weapons systems capable of striking China “is not in the interests of regional countries.”

Years earlier, China pressured South Korea against hosting America’s Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system. Having ultimately failed to dissuade Seoul, Beijing now likely fears that Manila may seek to host yet another high-impact US weapons system.

In September, Philippine Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo said Yi expressed China’s “very dramatic” concern about the Typhon’s deployment to the Philippines during talks in Laos on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meetings with Asian and Western countries.

What makes the Philippine deployment particularly sensitive to China is its proximity to Taiwan.

Beijing was already peeved with Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s decision to grant US forces rotational access to its northernmost military facilities close to Taiwan’s southern shores under the two sides’ expanded Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA).

The deployment of key military assets to geographically dispersed locations across the Philippines fits with the US Distributed Maritime Operations (DMO) operating concept.

As Asia Times correspondent Gabriel Honrada argued earlier in these pages, “The US can spread Typhon sensors and weapons across multiple EDCA sites, employ longer-range and unmanned systems and use resilient communication links to maintain coordination and adaptability in a contested environment.”

In the event of an all-out conflict over Taiwan, Philippine-based Typhon missile systems could prove singularly crucial since they would allow the Pentagon to hit mainland and maritime Chinese bases targeting American naval assets in the area.

The geostrategic stakes are clearly high for both superpowers. Earlier, in an apparent bid to tamp down diplomatic tensions with China, US and Philippine officials signaled that the Typhon missile system would be removed from the Philippines by September. But the latest reports suggest that the weapon system will remain until at least next year’s Balikatan exercises scheduled for April

While Beijing is primarily concerned with a potential confrontation with Washington over Taiwan, Manila is focused on its own strategic interests. Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) chief Brawner Jr has repeatedly turned down America’s offer of direct assistance amid recent tussles in the South China Sea.

At the same time, he has openly called for the long-term deployment as well as acquisition of advanced American weapons systems. Under the newly launched Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept (CADC), the Southeast Asian nation is seek to rapidly enhance its defensive capabilities vis-à-vis China.

“Not only the Typhon but also other missile systems kasi kailangan natin ng (because we need) comprehensive air defense and maritime defense systems,” Brawner Jr told reporters on the sidelines of the recent 5th Asian Defense, Security and Crisis Management Exhibition and Conference (ADAS 2024).

“ADAS 2024 provides an important venue for enhancing our defense and security capabilities by exploring cutting-edge technologies and fostering collaboration with international partners,” he added, signaling Manila’s growing appetite for not only hosting but also operating increasingly sophisticated NATO-grade weapons systems.

According to recent satellite imagery, the Laoag International Airport in Laoag, Ilocos Norte, which also happens to be the hometown of President Marcos Jr, is currently hosting the Typhon system. The northern Philippine base is less than a 30-minute flight away from southern Taiwanese cities.

“If ever it will be pulled out, it is because the objective has been achieved and it may be brought (back) in after all the repairs or the construction would have been done,” an anonymous senior Filipino official told Reuters. “We want to give [China] sleepless nights,” the official added.

“If it were up to me, if I were given the choice, I would like to have the Typhon missile system here in the Philippines forever because we need it for our defense,” Philippine top general Brawner Jr told media last week while emphasizing that he has not yet received a definitive response from the Pentagon.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Richeydarian

Continue Reading

Cause to buy, cause to sell China’s new bull market – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

As Beijing’s signal campaign sends China stocks skyrocketing, matter analyst Stephen Jen&nbsp, among the bull who think China’s biggest protest since 2008 is just getting started.

” Foreign equities&nbsp, are really devalued”, says Jen, the chief executive officer of Eurizon SLJ. Because “investors are so thin everything Taiwanese”, he notes,” a severe rally is entirely feasible”.

Chinese shares rose for a ninth straight day on Monday ( September 30 ) thanks to China’s bold moves last week to slash interest rates, lower mortgage rates, relax regulations for homebuyers in major cities, reduce the amount of cash banks must keep in reserve, and telegraphed moves of stimulus to come.

Today’s wave by as much as 9.1 % in the standard CSI 300 Catalog is the biggest since 2015, a month drenched in relevance for President Xi Jinping’s state. In July and August 2015, Shanghai shares plunged to a third of their worth in just three months.

Fast-forward to the present, the People’s Bank of China’s ( PBOC ) actions, coupled with the US Federal Reserve’s big easing and falling global oil prices, mean China’s risk assets “ought to do very well”, Jen says. ” After the US vote, I expect world stocks to march profoundly into year-end”, he adds.

No so fast, warns Stephen Roach, past Asia-region chair for Morgan Stanley. Is China’s long-term financial problem over now that the Politburo has issued a message of further emergency meetings, asks economist Roach? If it were only that easy”.

Roach remains “increasingly concerned that China was at risk of falling into a&nbsp, Japanese-like quagmire&nbsp, –&nbsp, a&nbsp, balance strip recession&nbsp, characterized by slowdown and depreciation as an extension of the bursting of a big debt-fueled property bubble”.

Matter Roach among the academics wondering what, oh what, the share bulls rushing China’s means are thinking.

In fact, investors are rushing up into everything China without project plans to restore the still troubled real estate market, rebalance growth engines toward services and apart from exports, enhance local governments ‘ struggling balance sheets, and create strong safety nets to encourage China’s families to save less and spend more.

President Xi’s staff should be focused on the gap between those reversing China little posts, which Bank of America Corp discovered was one of the most crowded industry in the world, and the unrelenting China bears if it wants to keep the bulls work going.

That means entering the march with bold plans to carry out the liberalizing measures his Communist Party has promised to do since 2013 but has failed to deliver.

For today, China’s rapid return to economic stimulus setting has the nation’s attention. However, Zhiwei Zhang, an economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, is right to say that” the key policy to address the macro challenge remains to be fiscal.

In order to help China meet its 5 % economic growth target, local media are buzzing about an additional 2 trillion yuan ( US$ 285 ) worth of bond sales. Much more may be needed, nevertheless, to improve poor household demand and offset headwinds from overseas.

Japan’s increase in interest rates to their highest level since 2008 poses a risk to other countries. Another shows signs of strain in the US economy as a contentious election draws near, with both Democrats and Republicans threatening new tariffs on everything made in China.

Last week, PBOC Governor&nbsp, Pan Gongsheng&nbsp, unveiled a barrage of support measures, including a reduction in the seven-day reverse repurchase rate to 1.5 % from 1.7 %. Additionally, the PBOC announced the largest-ever rate reduction for its one-year policy loans, cutting loan prime rates and deposit rates.

The Politburo, Beijing’s top decision-making body, called for a “forceful” implementation of these and other measures supposedly to come. Additionally, it highlighted a new need to” stop declining” the real estate market.

These efforts might include removing some of the restrictions on home purchases that are still in place. Top cities could impose restrictions on visitors who are not from their own neighborhoods. In other words, liberalizing China’s “hukou” residence permit system.

Beijing has n’t yet provided a detailed timeline or procedure for getting bad assets off the balance sheets of large property developers to lessen their default risks. Or to encourage local governments to purchase unfinished real estate projects without further deteriorating their already fragile fiscal standing.

Premier Xi Qiang’s team has also made significant efforts to make more market space available for small and medium-sized private companies by reducing the dominance of state-owned enterprises. And global investors still are n’t clear on the state of Xi’s crackdown on China’s biggest tech companies.

Roach is one of the people who is concerned that last week’s Politburo statement only “paid lip service to fiscal stimulus imperatives,” even on fiscal issues. These actions were more likely to be viewed as broad promises than as a comprehensive list of planned actions.

Roach points out that while the Politburo vowed to stop the housing market’s decline, policy choices were made in support of this goal, primarily through lower mortgage rates, downpayment requirements for second homes, and lower interest rates on so-called social housing.

Roach remarks that the long-awaited fiscal program, which would absorb the surplus of unsold homes and turn it into low-income public housing, had a notable lack of detail.

China continues to be wary of implementing the kind of fiscal bazooka that was so successful in sparkeding its recovery in 2009-10, like Japan, where fiscal actions in the 1990s were repeatedly strained by rising public sector indebtedness. And perhaps that’s with good reason”, he says.

Roach points out that the Chinese government’s debt-to-gross domestic product ratio was 85 % in early 2024, nearly three times what it was in 2009. Following Lehman Brothers ‘ demise in the US, Beijing finally started using the stimulus apparatus.

It’s imperative, though, that Team Xi do more to deal with investors ‘ underlying concerns about China’s financial system than just throw money at the problem, economists say.

Last week, the PBOC cheered stock punters by unveiling a new 500 billion yuan ($ 71 billion ) swap facility that funds, securities firms and insurance companies can tap to buy equities. The facility could be increased to 1.5 trillion yuan ($ 214 billion ).

Beijing is also introducing a lending facility for publicly traded companies to buy back shares and increase holdings. It will start at 300 billion yuan ($ 42 billion ) and possibly grow to 900 billion yuan ($ 128 billion ). Additionally, a type of market stabilization fund might be in the works.

Last week, Wu Qing, the chairman of China Securities Regulatory Commission, said Beijing will roll out moves to encourage mergers and acquisitions.

With all that, there’s little doubt the stimulus floodgates have been opened. We believe that the persistent growth weakness has hit policymakers ‘ pain threshold, and the policy put has been triggered, as Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a note.

Yet Team Xi needs to combine supply-side actions to further strengthen China’s investment environment for the long run to ensure the bull run continues.

As Roach explains, comparisons with Japan are far from perfect. There are many characteristics of China that are fundamentally different from those that contributed to Japan’s numerous “lost decades,” he claims.

” Other than being a large developing economy with several still untapped sources of future growth– namely, &nbsp, household consumption, urbanization, and&nbsp, insufficient capital endowment&nbsp, of its large workforce – China also benefits from understanding the lessons of Japan”.

For now, Roach admits,” China’s seemingly outsized policy stimulus took most of us by surprise”. He adds that” the financial authorities apparently came to the rescue with their own version of a “big bazooka” just as we had grownaccustomed to Beijing’s grudging response to increasingly serious economic problems. ‘&nbsp, At least that’s the verdict of the Chinese equity market”.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

Continue Reading

Nasrallah killing leaves Hezbollah leaderless and vulnerable – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

Hassan Nasrallah’s execution on September 28 in an Israeli attack hits Iran, which has lost its most important alliance in the Middle East, head of a decisive blow.

Since the end of the Second Lebanon War in the summer of 2006, the fight between Israel and Hezbollah has reached its most sour levels in recent days. Hezbollah launched a new front against Israel the day after Hamas ‘ terrible terror attack on October 7 that killed 1,200 Israelis, many of whom were civilians killed in their homes close to the Gaza border or at the local Nova music festival.

Hezbollah, which has been labeled a terrorist organization by the US and UK institutions, quickly showed its support and cooperation with Hamas and instantly launched rockets at both civil and military targets in northeastern Israel.

The Israeli authorities evacuated around 100, 000 residents who lived close to the Lebanese border out of fear that Hezbollah might launch a similar incursion into Galilee and cause a massacre of the Jewish human population. These individuals have now been forced to leave their homes for a time.

Until recently, the fighting between the celebrations was characterized by relatively small power. Israeli civilian and military targets have been bombarded by Hezbollah with hundreds of missiles and robots.

Since October 2023, lots of Israelis have been killed, primarily in the northeast of the nation. Hezbollah goals in Lebanon, including jet depots and other military system, have been targeted by the Army with airstrikes and ordnance fire.

However, some people believed that the markets were not at a level that Israel and Hezbollah could start a full-scale conflict.

12 children were killed on a soccer field in the Druze town of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights in July as a result of a Hezbollah jet harm. In reply, three days later, Israel assassinated Hezbollah’s most top commander, the mind of its corporate system, Fuad Shukr, in an attack in Beirut.

Since then, the crime has gradually gotten worse. The IDF launched a&nbsp, proactive strike&nbsp, against Hezbollah weapon rockets that were poised to strike targets inside Israel on August 25 as Hezbollah was preparing to launch a big rocket attack on the northeast and center of the country. The Zionist security government announced in mid-September that its conflict objectives included the return of displaced people from the nation’s north.

Days after, in a very complex procedure, dozens of Hezbollah pagers exploded, killing lots and wounding hundreds of Hezbollah extremists. The following morning, Hezbollah’s community of walkie-talkies was targeted in the same way.

Israel has never taken any responsibility for either of these occurrences, but it is unconfirmed that they severely damaged Hezbollah’s authority.

Two weeks after that, on September 20, Shukr’s son, Ibrahim Akil, was killed in an Israeli attack in the Dahieh district of Beirut, along with dozens of top commanders of Hezbollah’s wealthy Radwan power.

Operation Northern Arrows

However, all of these actions were just the start of Operation Northern Arrows, which started on September 23. 1,600 Hezbollah targets, including hundreds of jet and missile launchers, were among the human population of Lebanon when the Israeli air force attacked.

Hezbollah has responded by firing missiles at Israel, most of which were intercepted by Israel’s air defense systems. It is estimated that Hezbollah had an army of 150, 000 missiles, including platform and long-range weapons. Many of these have then been completely destroyed by Israeli strikes.

Hezbollah also has precision-guided weapons and drones, but new Jewish attacks have eliminated many of Hezbollah’s chain of command and significantly disrupted its operating equilibrium. The military chain of command of Hezbollah has almost been completely destroyed as a result of the execution of many of its top leaders and then Nasrallah himself.

Israel has been deploying its defense in large numbers along its border with Lebanon. &nbsp, Photo: EPA-EFE via The Conversation / Atef Safadi

Tehran has not yet indicated that it will use force to support Hezbollah. The benefit of serving as one of the region’s most significant proxy may be questioned by this.

In this framework, some in Beirut, Damascus, Sana’a and Gaza are absolutely asking themselves then what is the benefit of being Iran’s messengers, if the latter leaves them only to encounter Israel.

Ceasefire doubtful?

In order to prevent this from turning into a wider geographical issue, the main hope for Hezbollah and Lebanon itself, into whose economic and political institutions Hezbollah has become so strongly rooted, is that the global community will order a stalemate on both edges.

The US and France have pushed for a 21-day stalemate. However, it appears that Israel is determined to keep the defense campaign against Hezbollah, just like it did its occupation of Hamas in Gaza.

The world is currently anticipating Israel’s troop deployment to Lebanon. Now, hundreds of people in the south of the nation have emigrated from the northwest. However, it is not at all sure that Israel wants to return to Syrian land despite a declaration from the IDF’s chief of staff, Maj Gen Herzi Halevi, that the Army is preparing to launch a surface activity in Lebanon.

In May 2000, the IDF pulled up from southern Lebanon to the international border after 18 years of occupation, and in 2006, it did the exact in&nbsp, compliance with UN Security Council Resolution 1701.

A successful ground war may be delayed for the time being given the success of its battle of airstrikes in eradicating Hezbollah’s military risk.

The US and other states, including the UK, have urged Israel to put a hold on any war intentions and agree to a peace. It presents the Biden administration, which is intensely conscious of the need to maintain both Jewish and Arab citizens onside, with a difficult decision.

However, it is difficult to imagine that Biden will put pressure on Jerusalem to prevent its fight against Iranian substitute violence, particularly during an election campaign and given the special relationship between the two countries.

Ori Wertman is exploration fellow, Faculty of Life Sciences and Education, University of South Wales

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.

Continue Reading

The Big Read: It’s become increasingly difficult to smoke outdoors, but some way yet before Singapore is smoke-free

By:
On:
In: South-East Asia

HOW Smoking HAVE REACTED The ever-increasing limits on tobacco, coupled with different techniques such as massive hikes in the tobacco taxes over the years, have had mixed results. They gave some smoking, like Mr Kevin Wang, the desire to stop. Some claim that the challenge of finding smoking points makesContinue Reading

With better protections, can platform work in Singapore now be a lifelong career?

By:
On:
In: South-East Asia

SINGAPORE: They both became software personnel to make money while between work. Then they discovered making their future career move more challenging than they anticipated, but that’s where the similarities end.

Mr Kelvin Lee, 50, has made his living as a shipping horse for four years, while Raj ( who asked not to be identified by his full name ), 33, has been a private-hire vehicle for nine months.

The older man is a diploma-holder who spent most of his job in design. &nbsp, He lost his lease job in hospitality in 2020, during the pandemic, and thought he would return to the business after COVID-19 blew over. However, Mr. Lee discovered that his interests had changed and that he wanted to spend more time with his family. &nbsp,

He now earns S$ 3, 000 ( US$ 2, 330 ) to S$ 4, 000 a month working eight hours a day. He does n’t take any vacations, but he claims to work for the same amount of money as he did at his previous job.

Mr Lee sees supply work as a method- to long-term career, and has accepted that he may be doing this until pensions, which he expects to be in his 60s or 70s.

Raj, but, was sure he’s simply driving for the short term, after leaving a high-pressure work in sales at a digital analysis company. He then earns on S$ 6, 000 a fortnight driving every week and half-days on vacation.

The student was enthusiastic about working toward the end of her senior year for a full-time position in business development or online marketing. He claimed he was putting in the long run for an expected monthly income of S$ 10, 000, which he used to get.

Raj and Mr Lee are part of a diverse team of around 70, 000 software staff in Singapore.

Singapore passed policy earlier in September earlier that year to strengthen its rights and recognize platform workers as a specific group.

Increased contributions to the required Central Provident Fund ( CPF ) savings plan, including from employers, mandatory work injury insurance coverage, and better representation in labor negotiations are now part of their protections.

Questions have been raised about whether system work has evolved into a viable, yet lifelong career option as a result of these moves, particularly those that aim to better meet pension and housing needs through CPF.

Planning IN WITH “EYES WIDE OPEN”

Mr. Lee is happy with his delivery work because his financial obligations are minor, he earns more than he would in other jobs, and he does n’t anticipate much career advancement at this young age. Additionally, he’s confident that platform jobs wo n’t dry up.

But he would n’t recommend young people be full-time platform workers. ” There’s no career progression, and there’s always a limit ( to what ) you can earn”.

Raj was just as anxious for fresh, better-educated system workers.

” I do worry about people who have studied, who could contribute in a much larger fashion to the economy, but are deciding to just continue driving private-hire (vehicles ) because they enjoy the flexibility of this job”, he said.

He knows two individuals who are graduates, one with a master’s level, who have stayed on despite no first approaching system function as a second option.

Aged around 30 and childless, these friends of Raj’s are content to keep at it as they also have no family-related agreements nor costs however.

While some treat platform work as transitional, a substantial portion see it as a long-term career choice, said Dr Mathew Mathews, principal research fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies ( IPS) and head of its Social Lab.

They find the earnings comparable to those of other jobs, he added, and they have a preference for work where you do n’t have to directly report to someone because it has much lower barriers for entry, he added.

Koh Poh Koon, the senior minister of state for labor, addressed the “finely healthy end ground” between support and versatility in the new collection of protections that the government has introduced in parliament.

However, software workers have already expressed concerns about how higher Pension contributions will affect their monthly pay. Some people have said they wo n’t participate in the program, which is required only for platform workers who turn 30 or younger in 2025.

The Land Transport Authority has set a minimum period of 30 for private-hire generating applications since 2020. &nbsp,

When questioned about the new safeguards ‘ policy objective, Dr. Mathews, whose analysis includes system work, said he did not believe it was intended to nudge employees aside from what is legitimate work that benefits the economy.

” Yet, the Bill does make some corrections, at least in terms of opinions, for younger employees who may be eager to enter full-time platform work based on the false notion that system work is much more lucrative than traditional job.

That definitely seemed to be the case when system work earnings did not qualify for Psc deductions. Then, with CPF assumptions, the average earnings for system work and standard professional work will not be too far apart, “he said.

Continue Reading

ThaiBev chief applauds success of local projects

By:
On:
In: South-East Asia

Since 2016, 136, 000 families have been helped by the regional development program nationwide.

PUBLISHED: 28 Sep 2024 at 20: 25

Thapana Sirivadhanabhakdi, president and CEO of Thai Beverage Plc, joins participants in a pha khao ma promotion project that is part of a local economic development programme aimed at helping communities nationwide, at Sustainability Expo 2024, at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center in Bangkok on Saturday. (Photo: Apichart Jinakul)
At Sustainability Expo 2024, held on Saturday at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center in Bangkok, Thapana Sirivadhanabhakdi, president and CEO of Thai Beverage Plc, joins individuals in a ha khao mom development project that is a part of a regional economic development initiative aimed at assisting communities across the country. ( Photo: Apichart Jinakul )

According to Thapana Sirivadhanabhakdi, the chairman and CEO of the company, regional development is flourishing under a project supported by Thai Beverage Plc, which has generated 2.6 billion ringgit in income for 136, 000 communities across the country over the past nine years.

During a meeting of the private sector team for local economic development held during Sustainability Expo 2024 ( SX2024 ) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center in Bangkok, Mr. Thapana discussed the objectives and accomplishments of the program.

Mr. Thapana, who is also the team’s leader and chairman of the local pha khao ma ( Thai traditional loincloth ) project, was pleased with the outcomes of the team’s ongoing collaboration since 2016.

The program focuses on three important areas: crops, running, and community-based hospitality, with the main goal of generating revenue for local areas and enhancing their well-being, he said.

To achieve the ambitions, the emphasis is on improving access to production elements, creating awareness, developing marketing techniques, enhancing communication attention, and ensuring effective management as the project moves forward.

According to Mr. Thapana, the project has largely been supported by the Ministry of Interior’s Department of Community Development, as well as other government departments, the private sector, educational institutions, and civil society.

” More than 1, 690 sub-projects have been launched under this localized business venture. In 2023 only, the task generated over 460 million baht in income for populations nationwide”, he said.

The Market Place Zone hosts an exhibition at SX2024 that highlights products from local communities across the nation and traces the course of the Ha Khao Ma production promotion. The celebration runs from Sept 27 to Oct 6, from 10am to 8pm.

Continue Reading