Commentary: Transparent content moderation key to responsible political discourse in Malaysia

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This was on the purported basis of these groups being brazen enough to “steal” political power from the majority population. While some of this content was eventually removed, it came only after widespread circulation and public outcry.

GAPS IN UNDERSTANDING OF CONTENT MODERATION

Relatedly, social media platforms do not disclose what resources they allocate to individual markets, especially relatively smaller ones perceived as unproblematic, like Malaysia.

Resources here include how well-trained the AI models are at detecting issues specific to Malaysia, the number of human moderators dedicated to the country, and the language proficiency of the AI model and human moderators to account for hyperlocal colloquialisms and slang.

For example, none of the existing resources could flag, moderate, and remove the videos calling for a repeat of the May 13 racial riots of 1969, which involved sectarian violence between Malays and Chinese in Malaysia. This is because the date alone, when detached from its historical significance or context, would not suggest that it constitutes hate speech and incitement towards violence in the present day.

Understandably, content removal requests by the government also raised concerns. Fears are that such moves could lead to censorship of political speech, especially against critics of the current administration.

Of greater concern is that removal requests can be made on vague bases, such as infringing broadly applicable legislation, like Section 505(b) of the Penal Code and Section 233(1) of the Communications and Multimedia Act 1998. The former draws the line for free speech at statements bringing about public mischief, while the latter prohibits the improper use of network facilities.

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What China must do to revive its fading recovery

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About the only thing falling faster than China’s economic prospects is the yuan.

China’s sliding currency is but the latest indicator pointing toward a year that could be the hardest yet of the Xi Jinping era. That seemed clear enough last week, when the People’s Bank of China surprised the world with a rate cut.

The PBOC eased again today, cutting the one-year loan prime rate by 10 basis points from 3.65% to 3.55% and the five-year loan prime rate by 10 basis points from 4.3% to 4.2%. Investors’ attention is now on how quickly and aggressively Xi’s government might act to pump additional stimulus into Asia’s biggest economy.

The PBOC moves reveal “growing concerns among policymakers about the health of China’s recovery,” says Julian Evans-Pritchard at Capital Economics.

Even those betting China could well exceed this year’s 5% economic growth target are lowering their forecasts. Case in point: Goldman Sachs cut its forecast to 5.4% from 6%, citing already elevated debt levels and Xi’s determination to limit property speculation. 

Xi’s team now faces questions on two key fronts. One is whether Beijing’s slow stimulus rollout so far puts it behind the curve. Two, whether officials risk incentivizing bad behavior that Xi’s team spent the last few years trying to discourage.

“It’s clear China’s policymakers have shifted back to supporting growth after the recovery disappointed, but less clear if they can do so without worsening old problems,” says economist Xiaoxi Zhang at Gavekal Research.

So far, Zhang argues, China’s “pivot to more dovish policy was less well telegraphed” than investors would prefer. “Though expectations for a shift had been building over the last two weeks after early indicators for May continued the disappointment of April,” Zhang says.

The latest full set of monthly data “confirmed that a sharp reversal in the property sector and a decline in exports had opened up a hole in aggregate demand,” Zhang notes.

“By cutting its short-term policy rate in response, the People’s Bank of China sent a powerful signal, as it moves interest rates only rarely. Still, there is a strong consensus domestically that more direct support for demand is necessary through fiscal policy,” Zhang says.

On June 16, at a State Council meeting, Xi’s leadership team discussed a package of measures, but has kept the details close to the vest.

Li Qiang has his work cut out for him. Image: Screengrab / NDTV

There, the council, led by Premier Li Qiang said that “in response to the changes in the economic situation, more forceful measures must be taken to enhance the momentum of development, optimize the economic structure and promote the continuous recovery of the economy.”

As Zhang sees it, “more spending on infrastructure would be the easiest and quickest way to stimulate growth, although this would disappoint advocates of structural reform.”

No reform is more important than addressing a growing crisis in China’s property sector. Since data show a critical mass of mainlanders are reluctant to invest in anything other than real estate, stabilizing the market is key to boosting household confidence.

Getting China’s 1.4 billion people to save less and spend more is the top goal for Xi’s third term. If Xi is serious about mobilizing savings, then revitalizing property, which can account for as much as 30% of gross domestic product (GDP), requires urgent attention. This means ending boom-bust cycles in the longer run.

The fragile state of the property sector is warping the underlying mechanics of China’s economy, warns US policy research firm Rhodium Group. Its analysts found that, thanks to cratering property values, more than 100 Chinese cities had difficulty servicing debts last year.

This alone risks deadening the impact of any fiscal stimulus that either the PBOC or Xi’s team might unleash in the months ahead.

In a recent report, Rhodium looked at trends in 205 mainland cities and financial data of nearly 2,900 local government financing vehicles (LGFVs). These schemes raise money to drive giant infrastructure projects aimed at boosting local GDP.

In a report last month, S&P Global Ratings warned that “China property is set for another year of softening.” Even as conditions are coming “close to normal” in some richer, upper-tier cities, S&P argues that “weaknesses in China’s tier three and four cities will keep the property recovery on an ‘L-shaped’ path. Conditions will hit the developers with heavy exposure to lower-tier cities the hardest.”

S&P notes that “we view this as the latest stage of a crisis that resulted in US$52 billion in offshore bond defaults last year, with about one in four developers brushing against insolvency. The downturn in lower-tier markets will hit a large section of the industry.”

Bottom line, S&P says, is this “strained environment will require a hard look at entities’ liquidity, especially declarations of unrestricted cash, and cash-generating capabilities. About 40% of rated developers could experience rating pressure if sales in tier-three/tier four cities fell 20% this year.”

In November, Xi’s team began telegraphing a series of measures – 16 in total – to promote the “stable and healthy development” of the sector.

China is having property troubles. Image: Twitter

Key among them was credit support for highly indebted property developers, looser purchasing rules on first homes by new city dwellers, assistance for deferred-payment loans for homebuyers and financial support to ensure completion and handover of projects to homeowners.

The plan “is much more comprehensive, ranging from addressing the liquidity crisis faced by developers to a temporary easing of a signature restriction on bank lending, from equally treating private and state-owned housing developers to re-initiating the financial funding channels for them,” notes economist Jinyue Dong at BBVA Research. “It marks all-round efforts to bail out the real estate market to secure a ‘soft landing’ after recent data showed some mild improvement.”

But it’s imperative that Beijing remembers that “sentiment matters,” Dong says. The 16-point plan, which aims “to avoid a real estate hard-landing, is still lagged behind the stimulus measures back to 2015 while the easing of zero-Covid policy is still slower-than-expected.”

“That means, without the deluge of massive stimulus on real estate to help rebuild the housing price increasing confidence, whether and how long the ongoing housing stimulus could bring the housing market out of quagmire is still questionable. 2023 might witness some mild recovery, but the long-term robust recovery needs more stamina ahead,” Dong says.

Economist Zongyuan Zoe Liu at the Council on Foreign Relations notes that “a healthy housing market is critical to China’s economic growth and financial stability, but slowing home sales, driven by pandemic restrictions and demographic shifts, has unsettled both real estate developers and home buyers.”

That’s why the PBOC over the last year “has taken a series of policy actions aimed at lowering mortgage interest rates in a bid to spur buyer demand and shore up home prices,” Liu notes. It’s taken the form of Chinese banks being allowed to offer adjustable-rate mortgages subject to a nationwide minimum interest rate floor.

Under normal circumstances, Liu explains, the mortgage interest rate floor is equal to the loan prime rate, or LPR, for first-time homebuyers and LPR plus 60 basis points for all other borrowers.

Beginning in May 2022, the PBOC “broke this convention by lowering the nationwide floor on new mortgages to 20 basis points below LPR for first-time buyers,” she says. Later in September, the PBOC announced it was “relaxing” the nationwide interest rate floor in some cities where housing prices had been trending down for the previous three months.

Yet more than fresh stimulus, China needs comprehensive property market reforms that alter incentives and make investments more stable and productive. This responsibility falls to newish Premier Li, who took China’s No 2 job in March.

His balancing act: loosening fiscal policy to stabilize growth without fueling new bubbles in unproductive borrowing and leveraging.

“China has plenty of room to boost stimulus if it so chooses,” says Michael Hirson, China economist at 22V Research LLC. “The key obstacles are concern over financial risks and the reluctance so far to leverage the central government’s balance sheet to expand fiscal stimulus.”

Analysts say China has room to pump up economic stimulus. Photo: Facebook

Ting Lu, Nomura’s chief China economist, says it’s reasonable to expect “more easing and stimulus measures.” Lu stresses that “amid a deteriorating property sector, its potentially devastating impact on government finance and the rising risk of a double-dip, we do not expect Beijing to sit idle.”

One priority needs to be working faster to get toxic and potentially sour assets off property developers’ balance sheets.

In recent years, Beijing has indeed created a network of funds that borrow some features from the Resolution Trust Company mechanism the US used to clean up the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s. Japan did the same in the 1990s to end the 1980s bad-loan crisis.

Li’s charge will be to intensify efforts to ensure that financial institutions are limited in their ability to create fresh “moral hazards” that increase reliance on public bailouts in the longer run.

For now, even the International Monetary Fund thinks China has room to ramp up its stimulus-industrial complex.

“China has the policy space to keep monetary policy accommodative because inflation is very much muted,” says Krishna Srinivasan, the IMF’s director for Asia Pacific. “It also has the fiscal space to provide support.”

Yet the important thing, says Citigroup economist Xiangrong Yu, is a stimulus burst “centered on the property sector, with expansionary monetary and fiscal policies to keep up growth momentum.”

Yu adds that “we think the overall policy tone for this sector could transfer from stabilizing to cautious stimulating. More efforts would be needed to stop a downward spiral.”

Follow William Pesek on Twitter at @WilliamPesek

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Turkey eyes Balkan influence amid Serbia-Kosovo tensions

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With Recep Tayyip Erdogan having secured another five years in power, the Turkish president is seeking to increase Turkey’s influence in the Balkans – a region that was part of the Ottoman Empire for centuries.

Spiking tensions in northern Kosovo present such an opportunity. Although southeastern Europe remains firmly in the United States’ geopolitical orbit, Ankara likely aims to start playing the role of mediator in disputes between Belgrade and Pristina. 

The situation in Kosovo near the Serbian border, where ethnic Serbs make up the majority of the population, escalated on May 26 when the Albanian-dominated Kosovo police special forces (ROSU) seized four municipal buildings in the area, aiming to help newly elected ethnic-Albanian mayors take office.

The Serb population overwhelmingly boycotted elections on April 23, so while the votes were free and fair, the results did not reflect the wishes of the majority in the region.

ROSU’s actions infuriated the United States and – despite being Kosovo’s major backer – Washington expelled Pristina from American-led military exercises in Europe. Instead, US troops held joint military drills with the Serbian army near the town of Bujanovac, not far from Kosovo. 

Quite aware that he cannot count on full Western support, Kosovar Prime Minister Albin Kurti may start looking for alternative partners, hoping to improve Pristina’s positions in the international arena. Could Turkey be one of them?

Ankara has deployed around 500 Turkish commandos to northern Kosovo in response to a NATO request for troops to help quell the unrest. They have already started patrolling the Serb-dominated municipalities in the north. More important, Turkey is expected soon to take over the command of the US-dominated NATO mission in Kosovo. 

But even though Ankara is traditionally seen as an ally of Balkan Muslims, including Albanians, that does not necessarily mean Erdogan will side with Kurti against the ethnic-Serb majority in northern Kosovo. However, the Kosovar prime minister’s recent meeting with the Turkish ambassador to Pristina undoubtedly represents his attempt to gain Ankara’s support amid his confrontation with the US.

Turkey expands influence abroad

It is no secret that Turkey aims to become one of the most influential foreign actors in the Balkans. It already plays an important “peacemaking” role in various conflicts, from Syria, through Libya, to Ukraine, where Ankara’s mediation led to the grain deal signed between Moscow and Kiev.

Since the European Union-facilitated dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina did not lead to an easing of tensions in northern Kosovo, Erdogan sees a window of opportunity for Ankara to mediate the conflict.   

Even though Turkey unreservedly supports Kosovo’s 2008 unilaterally declared independence from Serbia, Erdogan seems to be opting for a constructive, balanced approach, which also implies respect for Serbian interests in the region.

Belgrade – as well as EU members Spain, Greece, Romania, Slovakia and Cyprus – sees Kosovo as an integral part of Serbia, which is why Turkey is attempting to balance its strong economic ties with the southeastern European nation, with its historic and cultural ties with Kosovo Albanians.

In 2013, when Erdogan was prime minister, his statement that “Kosovo is Turkey, and Turkey is Kosovo” drew strong criticism in Belgrade. Ten years later, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic sees Erdogan as an actor who can “help preserve stability in northern Kosovo,” and also as a “true friend” of Serbia.

Indeed, despite different views on the status of Kosovo, relations between Belgrade and Ankara have significantly improved over the past decade. Serbian citizens can travel to Turkey without passports, while Ankara continues strengthening its economic presence in the Balkan nation.

Around 3,300 Turkish companies are operating in Serbia, 21 of which are factories. Further, the total trade exchange between Serbia and Turkey reached almost €2.5 billion (US$2.7 billion) in 2022, while the trade volume between Turkey and Kosovo was much lower, accounting for $696 million. 

Arms sales

Belgrade and Ankara – despite Turkey being a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and Serbia remaining militarily neutral – are also expected to increase military cooperation, especially after Erdogan reportedly promised to provide the landlocked Balkan nation with Bayraktar drones.

However, the Kosovo Security Force has already received five Turkish-made drones, which means that Turkey likely aims to benefit by selling weapons to both sides.

An increased Turkish military presence in Kosovo will undoubtedly help Ankara strengthen its positions in the region, especially now that the West is preoccupied with the war in Ukraine. At the same time, it will help Erdogan portray himself as an ascendant, impartial partner for both Belgrade and Pristina.

But given that the United States, with its Kosovo-based Camp Bondsteel – the largest and most expensive foreign military base built by the US in Europe since the Vietnam War – remains the major foreign power operating in the Balkans, Turkey is unlikely to be in a position to pursue a completely independent foreign policy in the region.

Instead, Ankara will almost certainly have to coordinate most of its moves carefully with Washington. 

This article was provided by Syndication Bureau, which holds copyright.

Follow Nikola Mikovic on Twitter @nikola_mikovic.

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School bus operators should ensure common pick-up and drop-off points are safe for students: MOE

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PARENTS WORRIED ABOUT LONGER DISTANCES

CNA spoke to some parents who expressed concerns about their children’s safety, especially if they have to walk longer distances alone to the pick-up points. The parents also had mixed views on how far these pick-up points should be.

They also questioned if operators, which have been increasing their fees as they cope with issues such as the manpower crunch and high Certificate of Entitlement (COE) prices, will correspondingly reduce their fees if they implement common pick-up and drop-off points.

Operators said a common pick-up point was a good suggestion in theory, with some having implemented it a while ago, but they anticipate parents having issues with it.

Mr Vijay Balasubramaniam, 43, said he would be all right with his older son – who is in Primary 5 – walking up to five minutes away from their Housing Board block. The boy currently takes the school bus that comes to the block.

The data analyst also has a six-year-old daughter who will attend primary school next year. He said he would not be comfortable with her walking beyond a block away to take the school bus.

“My wife and I wanted (our children) to take the bus because it’s more convenient. It’s also safe since it’s just downstairs and we know what time they will leave (home) and get back. If the pick-up point is further now, we’ll be worried … It will sort of defeat the purpose,” he added.

A mother-of-three, who only wanted to be known as Ginny, said she would not want her children walking more than 200m away. Her sons are in Primary 2 and 5.

The Bishan resident currently pays S$440 (US$328) a month in school bus fees, which she said was raised by S$20 per child earlier this year.

“If the operator moves the pick-up point, maybe they can go back to their original price,” she added.

Ms Eileen Tay, who lives in a Pasir Ris condominium unit, said she still expects her child to be picked up and dropped off within the condominium. Several other students in the condominium also take the bus.

COMMON PICK-UP POINT A GOOD SUGGESTION: OPERATORS

Mr Kelvin Tan, the managing partner of Rae Transport Services, said the issue of a common pick-up and drop-off point has been “a problem since donkey years back”.

“There will be complaints here and there but what can we do? It’s a measure that the government realised is actually more feasible, which I think should’ve been established a long time ago. It’s just that in the past, it was not firmly put on the table,” he added.

Mr Tan has encountered issues of bigger school buses not being able to turn into housing estate car parks, which are designed for smaller buses. Some parents think school buses should go all the way into the estate, he added.

Mr Philip Peh, general manager of Tong Tar Transport Service, said that having a common pick-up point was a “good suggestion” by MOE but parents may not be willing to take it up.

“The sense is that many of these young students may be very young,” he added. “Their parents (could find it) quite difficult to bring them out to a common pick-up point.”

Mr Peh, who is also president of the Singapore School & Private Hire Bus Owners’ Association, said he has not received feedback from other operators about this since it was only recently announced.

He noted that this will not be a “real solution” for the manpower shortage given that not every driver can drive a big bus to a common pick-up point.

“We still need a large pool of drivers to replace the retiring groups of drivers or those who are out of this industry, so it’s still very much a problem.

“You can only solve the current problems you are facing but in the long term, three to five years down the road, we don’t know what will happen with the shortage of manpower,” he added.

Nevertheless, Mr Peh said he was grateful to MOE for listening to the concerns of operators and drivers, pointing to the increased foreign driver quota.

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Megawati making moves to tilt Indonesia’s election

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JAKARTA – Indonesian Democrat Party for Struggle (PDI-P) chairperson Megawati Sukarnoputri has ended her one-sided, 20-year feud with presidential successor Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono amidst speculation she is intent on killing off opposition candidate Anies Baswedan’s chances of running in the February 2024 presidential election.

But following a June 18 meeting at a downtown sports complex between her daughter, parliamentary speaker Puan Maharani, and Democrat Party chairman Agus Harimurti, Yudhoyono’s son, the Democrats said they are sticking with Baswedan’s Coalition of Change.

Democrat deputy secretary-general Jansen Sitindaon characterized the hour-long meeting as the beginning of a new chapter of reconciliation between two nationalist parties which have both had extended periods on government and opposition benches in the past two decades.

After the cordial atmosphere surrounding the first encounter, he also held out the prospect of an eventual meeting between Megawati and Yudhoyono to further explore inter-party cooperation – and the possible implications that may entail.

If the ruling party manages to pry Yudhoyono’s seventh-ranked party away from the Baswedan camp, it would leave the former Jakarta governor short of the 20% of parliamentary seats needed to qualify for what is now a three-way race to succeed President Joko Widodo at the end of his two-term limit.

PDI-P strategists feel their candidate, Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, 54, has a better chance of defeating his front-running rival, defense minister and Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) leader Prabowo Subianto, 71, in a single round contest.

But removing an Islamist-backed figure from the election would be another retrograde step for Indonesian democracy, which has already been undermined by the lack of a genuine opposition in the 575-seat House of Representatives (DPR).

Having two secular-nationalist candidates would also deal another blow to right-wing forces, who emerged during Yudhoyono’s compliant presidency and reached a peak with mass protests in 2016-2017 that led to the ouster of Christian-Chinese Jakarta governor Basuki “Ahok” Purnama, an ally of Widodo.

It is that – and a loss of influence at the top table – which lies behind efforts by the political elite and powerful backers in the intelligence community to prevent the former education minister from running in 2024, even if surveys show his chances are slim.

Baswedan, 54, who took over the governorship and served until last October, has been supported up to now by the Shariah-based Justice and Prosperity Party (PKS), the Democrats and media baron Surya Paloh’s National Democrat Party (Nasdem).

Anies Baswedan (3rd-L) and Ulema greet people at Monas Square during a reunion rally held by 212 Rally Alumni in Jakarta, Indonesia on December 2, 2018. Photo: Anton Raharjo / Anadolu Agency

Paloh angered Widodo by surprisingly breaking ranks with the ruling coalition in October and has since thwarted attempts to lure him back. PKS isn’t a viable target, but with the Democrats gone, the coalition would only be able to muster 17% of DPR seats.

Megawati hasn’t talked to Yudhoyono since he beat her decisively in the country’s first direct presidential election in 2004, claiming her chief political minister – and most visible Cabinet member – had gone back on his promise not to enter the race.

Then the vice president, Megawati had assumed the presidency in 2001 after the erratic Abdurrahman Wahid was impeached by the People’s Consultative Assembly (MPR), the top law-making body, for trying to dissolve the legislature.  

The Democrats acknowledge being taken aback when chairman Harimurti, 44, a former army officer, appeared on a list of candidates PDI-P was considering for Pranowo’s running mate, despite widespread doubts about what he will bring to the ticket.

“For a long time, there had been no formal meeting (between the two parties),” one senior Democrat told Asia Times. “They shut down communications. Now they are trying to turn around and we were very surprised. We wanted to know ‘Was it with Mega’s approval?’”

Initially, he said, “we tried to see this as part of their president’s machinations – and that is to disable the (opposition) coalition,” which has made clear its aim is to break up what it calls the existing “oligarchic structure.”

In any event, the Democrats responded immediately by arranging a meeting between party secretary-general Teuku Riefky Harsya and his PDI-P counterpart, Hasto Kristiyanto, Megawati’s closest retainer who only acts with her explicit approval.

As the Democrat source explained before the Maharani-Harimurti meeting: “Our party is clear. We are still in the coalition with Anies, but we are open to communications with Prabowo and Ganjar.” Sitindaon repeated that: “The Democrats are still loyal to the coalition it helped establish.”

Recent Maharani-Harimurti meeting could pave the way for a top-level meeting of their parents. Image: Twitter

PDI-P’s overtures will now likely force Baswedan to pick Harimurti as his running mate, instead of doing the bidding of his mentor, former vice-president Jusuf Kalla, and selecting a senior figure from the mass Muslim organization Nahdlatul Ulama (NU).

Analysts believe that even if the vice presidency is not up for grabs, the Democrats may be tempted to settle for a return to the political mainstream and a promise of lucrative seats in any post-election Pranowo cabinet.

The Yudhoyonos have had to deal with internal rifts over the past five years with presidential chief of staff Moeldoko leading a revolt among members unhappy at being cast into the political wilderness because of the Megawati-Yudhoyono spat.

Moeldoko’s role has led to speculation that Widodo has been complicit in efforts to make the Democrats more palatable to Megawati who, in leaving the negotiations to her daughter Maharani, 49, still has to agree to a face-to-face meeting with the elder Yudhoyono.

Other prospective vice-presidents on PDI-P’s list include chief political minister Mahfud MD, State Enterprise Minister Erick Thahir, Tourism Minister Sandiago Uno, West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil and Golkar Party chairman and economic coordinating minister Airlangga Hartarto.

Pranowo appears to have only a peripheral role in deciding his running mate, another telling sign of his subservience to Megawati and her inner circle where the succession issue has become another major talking point behind the scenes.

Maharani and reclusive half-brother Prananda Prabowo, 53, are locked in a struggle over who will eventually replace Megawati. Adding to the intrigue are billboards in Bali showing Prananda, Megawati and her father, founding president Sukarno —but no Maharani. 

The third-ranked Golkar Party has yet to decide whether to join the Pranowo or Prabowo alliances, but one senior member says the late president Suharto’s political machine is in a “twilight zone” as dissidents seek to oust Hartarto from the leadership and stem its sliding fortunes.

Possible replacements include MPR chairman Bambang Soesatyo or chief maritime minister Luhut Panjaitan. Currently head of the party’s advisory council, Panjaitan is also Widodo’s right-hand man and often jokingly referred to as the “minister of everything.”

While next year’s presidential election will be hard fought and focused on capturing the votes of Indonesia’s Muslim majority, it may be free of much of the heated rhetoric between nationalists and religious conservatives that marked the 2019 campaign.

Prabowo and Pranowo share the lead by a substantial margin in all presidential polls and, if Baswedan remains in the race, look certain to contest the second round of voting, which is expected to take place two months after the first round on February 14.

Some analysts believe the PDI-P-Democrat  reconciliation may be part of an attempt by the ruling party to attract support from opposition voters in the second round when Baswedan’s conservative Muslim supporters are likely to vote for Prabowo. 

Indonesian President Joko Widodo (R) shakes hands with chairman of Gerindra Party Prabowo Subianto after Jokowi was sworn in for a second term as president at the parliament building in Jakarta on October 20, 2019. Prabowo later became Widodo’s defense minister. Image: AFP / Achmad Ibrahim

So far, PDI-P’s only partners are the United Development (PPP) and United Mandate (PAN) parties, the smallest in Parliament and with PPP at least in danger of failing to win the 4% of the seats in the simultaneous legislative elections required to earn DPR representation.

For now, Prabowo has the backing of the fourth-ranked National Awakening Party (PKB), often seen as the political arm of NU. But he has so far held off naming PKB leader Muhaimin Iskander, 56, as his running mate, which may be the price for the party staying the course.

Sources close to NU estimate the East Java-born deputy House speaker can call on the support of about half of the NU members who openly declare themselves to be part of a claimed 80 million-strong organization that is always an important factor in any election.

Widodo’s neutrality so far suggests he is trying to stave off lame-duck status in his final 16 months in office. But significant sections of his army of avid supporters have gone over to Prabowo since PDI-P’s decision to oppose Israel’s participation in the FIFA Under-20 football tournament.

While the resulting cancelation of the event was met with widespread disappointment in football-mad Indonesia, the deterioration in Pranowo’s popularity stems from the way it has shown him to bea Megawati mouthpiece with few ideas of his own.

He could make up lost ground in the months ahead, but it is difficult to recall a political move that has evoked so much negative commentary and appraisal among Indonesians of all stripes – and especially among younger voters.

Critics say PDI-P is increasingly a 20th-century party living in a world of its own, defined by the nationalist ideology of Sukarno, who died in 1970, three years after his removal from power in the wake of savage anti-communist bloodletting.

Even within the party, there have been suggestions that the out-of-work Widodo, a champion of Indonesia’s pluralist Pancasila ideology, could be in line for the leadership once the 76-year-old Megawati is gone.

Gerindra, second behind PDI-P in national votes, is more of a genuine grassroots organization with Prabowo as a hard-working leader seeking to make it third time lucky after being beaten by Widodo in the 2014 and 2019 presidential elections.

While friends say his temper is still in evidence, he has played an admirable game up to now, fostering relations with influential NU clerics in the Java heartland and being careful not to put himself offside with either Widodo or Megawati.

Analysts believe this may be the former general’s best chance yet. In an electorate where 56% of the 192 million voters are under 40, a recent Kompas poll found 32.7% of respondents between 17 and 26 favored Prabowo, well ahead of Pranowo at 24.5%.

Ganjar Pranowo will carry the ruling PDI-P’s banner at next year’s presidential election. Image: Twitter

The poll’s gap closed significantly among millennials in the 27-39 age group, but Prabowo still led with 23.98% to Pranowo’s 23.1%, a result that serves as a pointer to how close the race may be.

Despite being a member of PDI-P, Widodo has remained neutral so far, perhaps telling in itself given his perpetually strained relations with Megawati and rumors that he and Pranowo are not quite as close as they publicly appear.

In the end, however, it is the president’s endorsement – and the power of his enduring popularity – that may make an important difference in the looming showdown between Pranowo and Prabowo, particularly in the populous battleground of Java.

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Geopolitics moves into the underwater world 

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Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, has claimed that Russia could undermine the Western network of communication cables at the bottom of the Atlantic.

For the record, only 1-4% of data is distributed via communications satellites; the rest comes via fiber-optic cables. Thus if Medvedev’s threat were to materialize, the consequences for the world economy would be comparable to a nuclear strike.

For example, a 2006 earthquake damaged eight cables around Taiwan, disrupting communications and trade across Asia and affecting the Hang Seng Index accordingly. In 2008, 75 million people in the Middle East and India were left without communication because of a badly dropped anchor by a passing ship.

The obvious conclusion is that whoever owns the cables chooses the tune. The United States is well aware of this and is doing everything possible to keep unfriendly competitors out of the market. The State Department’s efforts have prevented at least six deals with Chinese companies.

An widespread attack on ocean networks would affect everyone, from tankers to the neighborhood coffee shop, and the losses would be in the trillions. It is unlikely that anyone with common sense would order such a global blackout, but a local one is entirely possible.

Incidentally, in February, Chinese boats allegedly cut two cables near the Matsu Islands off Taiwan.

In general, even if the threats remain threats, the popularity of satellite communication channels may grow, as well as the services of General Dynamics, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, and SpaceX, so it may be a good time to add some of the prospects to the stock screener.

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Southeast Asia to set ‘guardrails’ on AI with new governance code: Sources 

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SINGAPORE: Southeast Asian countries are drawing up governance and ethics guidelines for artificial intelligence (AI) that will impose “guardrails” on the booming technology, five officials with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters. Regulators across the world are rushing to draft regulations to govern the use of generative AI, which canContinue Reading

North Korea fires ballistic missile: South Korean military

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SEOUL: North Korea fired a ballistic missile, South Korea’s military said on Thursday (Jun 15), the latest in a string of banned weapons tests carried out by Pyongyang so far this year. “North Korea fired an unidentified ballistic missile into the East Sea,” Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said, referringContinue Reading