Vilnius NATO summit will likely be a flop

Any decision on NATO membership is between the 31 Allies and aspirant country. And so, in this case, when it comes to Ukraine, we have been discussing with our NATO Allies and Ukraine how we can collectively support Ukraine’s aspiration for Euro-Atlantic integration.

Ukraine would have to make reforms to meet the same standards as any NATO country before they join. President Biden thinks that Ukraine can do that.

– Karine Jean-Pierre, White House press secretary

​US President Joe Biden will spend three days in Europe at the NATO Summit in Vilnius scheduled for 11 and 12 July. The main topic will be Ukraine and where to go from here.

Ukraine is pushing for either immediate NATO membership or actionable security guarantees from NATO. But Ukraine’s position is undermined by the failure of the counteroffensive against Russia, and the failure of its attempts – via sabotage, assassination and lethal drones aimed at the Kremlin – to destabilize the Putin government. Now Ukraine is saying it needs NATO air power to be able to win its war.

It will be very hard to get a NATO consensus on the road ahead, no matter how much arm twisting Washington uses on its European partners.

Europe is already in a recession thanks to the Covid catastrophe, the sanctions on Russian energy and the huge unemployment levels, which impact recent immigrants. The result of all that is social unrest across Europe. France is already experiencing a serious revolt, and while the French situation has eased in the past few days, it will come back.

Meanwhile, the German government coalition​ is steadily losing popular support and the AfD, Germany’s right-wing party, is now the second most popular party in the country. Olaf Scholz and his coalition partners don’t know what to do: they may try banning AfD as a last ditch effort. Italy is also far from out of the mess.

The country has a conservative leadership but is being battered by unprecedented waves of immigrants coming from the Middle East. 

The triumphs and question marks from this week's NATO summit - Atlantic Council
Biden at the 2022 NATO Summit. Photo: Screengrab / Twitter

Europe is out of money and out of bullets. It is not in a mood to give a blank check to Ukraine or risk a bigger war that might spread into Europe. President Biden will have a hard time trying to squeeze more from the Europeans.

Biden knows that he cannot unilaterally use US forces, especially airpower, without airbases and supply centers in Europe. Right now, Washington has a free hand because US warplanes are not bombing Russian positions in Ukraine. Bombing them, however, would force a strong European reaction and shatter NATO.

Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky has been pressuring Washington for advanced warplanes, saying airpower would make it possible for Ukraine to win. But the only practical way forward with that over the next year is to operate from bases outside of Ukraine using US and possibly other NATO aircraft.

This would certainly mean war in Europe and the currently ruling governments in Europe either would have to say no or face being removed by force. It is, therefore, an unlikely, if highly dangerous, scenario.

​Washington has already signaled that it has been unable to convince its partners about Ukrainian NATO membership. It is likely that behind the scenes Washington is trying to craft some sort of security guarantee for Ukraine, but any meaningful guarantee is probably a bridge too far.

Russia is also restive after the Yevgeny Prigozhin-led coup attempt. Putin wants a military victory soon, as does the Russian army, which was badly stressed by the Prigozhin accusations.

Holding the line against a Ukrainian counteroffensive is not really a victory for the Russians since their image remains tarnished at home. It is reasonable to expect, therefore, that once the Ukrainian losses mount up high enough in the coming weeks, the Russian army will make dramatic offensive moves against Ukraine.

The big unknown is what the Russian army will do: Will it launch a big attack on Kiev, Kharkiv or Odesa? If, after Vilnius, Moscow sees Zelensky without any expectation of NATO coming to save him, it will exploit the situation very quickly.

Part of the Western foundation for Ukraine’s offensive was the introduction of modern technology on the battlefield, represented especially by the appearance of the Leopard tank. Unfortunately for NATO, the Leopard tanks have not saved the day for Ukraine. 

So far, between 16 and 20 Leopards have been knocked out on the battlefield along with lots of other NATO-supplied armor, including infantry fighting vehicles such as the US Bradley and mine clearing systems like the Finnish Leopard 2R HMBV and the German Wisent 1.

Polish Leopard tanks arrive in Ukraine. Image: Substack

The Leopard and US Abrams main battle tank form the armor backbone of NATO’s land defense. 

While the US and its allies have superior airpower, they have sparse and inadequate air defenses compared with what Russia can bring forward. This means that a land defense needs to stand up to Russian attack helicopters armed with missiles, lethal drones and air-launched mines in addition to artillery.

The failure of the Leopard in Ukraine represents a huge challenge for NATO and signals that the current NATO “tripwire” strategy may not work. 

Under the tripwire paradigm, the idea is that an initial Russian attack (most likely in the Baltic states because Russian forces are very close to Estonia and Latvia) can be held for some days while the US ships heavy forces into Europe. But if the tripwire is illusory, then NATO is exposed to rapid Russian advances in Europe should an attack be launched.

The bottom line is that NATO’s strategy needs revision or, alternatively, that the Europeans and Russians need to work out a mutually acceptable security arrangement. It is exactly such an arrangement that Russia proposed to NATO in December 2021. It was rejected without discussion.

Now the ammunition cupboard is bare, even in the United States. The Russians are learning how to counter advanced Western systems, a negative development for NATO’s security. It could not be a worse time to risk Europe’s security on the basis of being able to stop a Russian attack.

It may be easy for British politicians to scream they want NATO to fight in Ukraine, but it isn’t London that is likely the first target of Russia’s missiles. Cracks in the alliance are emerging more quickly than anticipated, and Europe’s weak governments are in trouble.

It will be interesting to see how Vilnius plays out. It will certainly be a propagandistic show, but there is a good chance Vilnius will be a flop.

Stephen Bryen is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. This article was originally published on his Substack, Weapons and Strategy. Asia Times is republishing it with permission.

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Coco Lee: The pioneering singer who charmed the world

Coco Lee at Hainan Island International Film Festival in 2020Getty Images

Millions of Asians tuned in on their television and mobile screens on what a Monday in March 2001 to watch Coco Lee sing A Love Before Time – the stirring theme from the acclaimed film Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon – at the 73rd Academy Awards.

Donning a red qipao, a traditional Chinese outfit, and golden chandelier earrings, Lee sang alongside a group of kungfu dancers, becoming the first Chinese-American to perform at the Oscars. The song was also nominated for best original song that year.

The then 26-year-old spoke of her ambition to leave an Asian footprint, literally, on the international stage. “I could sing for 30 years and never get the chance to perform like this,” Lee had said of the ground-breaking performance.

Lee died in Hong Kong on Wednesday at the age of 48. Her sisters, who broke the news on social media, said she had been suffering from depression for a few years and tried to take her own life on Sunday.

Long before representation became a talking point in entertainment, Lee became one of the first Asian singers to shoot to fame on both sides of the Pacific.

Born Ferren Lee on January 17, 1975, in Hong Kong, she moved to the US with her family when she was a secondary school student. After graduating from a public high school in California, she returned to Hong Kong, and then moved to Taiwan to launch her singing career. She soon broke into the Mandopop scene in 1994 with two albums.

Within a few years, she released English-language albums and crossed over to American charts. Disney hired her to voice the lead character in the Mandarin version of its hit film Mulan, for which she also sang the theme song, Reflection.

Her hit Before I Fall in Love made it to the soundtrack of the Julia Roberts-and-Richard Gere film Runaway Bride; and Do You Want My Love soared to the fourth spot on the US Billboard in 2000.

Coco Lee performing with Johnny Legend in 2011 in Beijing

Getty Images

Lee will be remembered for “laying the groundwork, culturally and musically,” in bridging the gap between East Asian and Western audiences, entertainment blogger Brandon Lewis told the BBC. Some fans likened her to Mariah Carey.

She holds a special spot among Chinese millennials who grew up listening to her music in Mandarin and English. It was a time when Mandopop flourished as economies like China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore boomed. Amid a sea of demure female singers crooning ballads, Li Wen – as she is known in the Chinese-speaking world – stood out with her confident image, sexy dance moves and brightly-coloured locks.

One of her songs Di Da Di, a Chinese cover of a Danish pop song, became an instant hit and a karaoke staple after it appeared in an advertisement in mainland China.

Behind the fame and flamboyance, Lee remained close with her mother and sisters.

In the early years of her career, her sister Nancy served as Lee’s wardrobe consultant, public relations officer and makeup artist – including on Oscar night – while her mother was manager and accountant. It was in fact Nancy who suggested the moniker Coco.

As a child, Lee had wanted to follow in her mother’s footsteps to become a doctor. She initially tried to juggle singing with pre-medical studies in university, but eventually left school to focus on her pop career.

In an Instagram post on Wednesday, Lee’s sisters Carol and Nancy spoke poignantly of how their younger sister “worked tirelessly to open up a new world for Chinese singers in the international music scene”.

Coco Lee performing with the Black Eyed Peas in 2011 in Beijing

Getty Images

“She went all out to shine for the Chinese. We are proud of her,” they wrote.

Lee’s death came as a shock to fans and fellow artistes who remember her for her shiny smile and exuberance on stage. Inevitably, it sparked a discussion about mental health on social media.

Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon director Ang Lee said he was “very shocked” to hear the news, and star Jackie Chan said Lee had “such great talent and unique personal style” and was “born to be a star”. “There will be one more star in the sky from now on,” he added.

On YouTube, where fans are re-watching Lee’s music videos and leaving tributes, one comment read: “I hope Li Wen can continue singing up in heaven, far away from pain and illness. Your song will forever live in our hearts.”

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Fukushima: Anxiety and anger over Japan’s nuclear waste water plan

South Korean environmental activists perform during a protest in Seoul against Japan's plan to discharge Fukushima radioactive water into the sea, as they mark World Oceans Day on June 8, 2022.Getty Images

A controversial plan by Japan to release treated waste water from the Fukushima nuclear plant has sparked anxiety and anger at home and abroad.

Since the 2011 tsunami which severely damaged the plant, more than a million tonnes of treated waste water has accumulated there. Japan now wants to start discharging it into the Pacific Ocean.

The UN nuclear watchdog the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has published a report endorsing Japan’s plan.

But since it was announced two years ago, the plan has been deeply controversial in Japan with local communities expressing concerns about contamination.

Fishing and seafood industry groups in Japan and the wider region have also voiced concerns about their livelihoods, as they fear consumers will avoid buying seafood.

And Tokyo’s neighbours are not happy either. China has been the most vocal, accusing Japan of treating the ocean as its “private sewer”. On Tuesday it criticised the IAEA report, saying its conclusions were “one-sided”.

So what is Japan’s plan and how exactly has it churned the waters?

What does Japan plan to do with the nuclear waste?

Since the disaster, power plant company Tepco has been pumping in water to cool down the Fukushima nuclear reactors’ fuel rods. This means every day the plant produces contaminated water, which is stored in massive tanks.

More than 1,000 tanks have been filled, and Japan says this is not a sustainable long-term solution. It wants to gradually release this water into the Pacific Ocean over the next 30 years, insisting it is safe to be discharged.

Releasing treated waste water into the ocean is a routine practice for nuclear plants – but given that this it the by-product of an accident, this is no ordinary nuclear waste.

Tepco filters the Fukushima water through its Advanced Liquid Processing System (ALPS), which reduces most radioactive substances to acceptable safety standards, apart from tritium and carbon-14.

Tritium and carbon-14 are, respectively, radioactive forms of hydrogen and carbon, and are difficult to separate from water. They are widely present in the natural environment, water and even in humans, as they are formed in the Earth’s atmosphere and can enter the water cycle.

Both emit very low levels of radiation but can pose a risk if consumed in large quantities.

The filtered water goes through another treatment, and is then diluted with seawater to reduce the remaining substances’ concentrations, before it is released into the ocean. Tepco says its system of valves will ensure no undiluted waste water is accidentally released.

Japan’s government says the final level of tritium – about 1,500 becquerels per litre – is much safer than the level required by regulators for nuclear waste discharge, or by the World Health Organization for drinking water. Tepco has said the carbon-14 level would also meet standards.

Tepco and the Japanese government have conducted studies to show the discharged water will present little risk to humans and marine life.

Many scientists have also backed the plan. “The water released will be a drop in the ocean, both in terms of volume and radioactivity. There is no evidence that these extremely low levels of radioisotopes have a detrimental health effect,” said molecular pathology expert Gerry Thomas, who worked with Japanese scientists on radiation research and advised the IAEA on Fukushima reports.

What do critics say?

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UN-appointed human rights experts have opposed the plan, as have environmental activists. Greenpeace has released reports casting doubt on Tepco’s treatment process, alleging it does not go far enough in removing radioactive substances.

Critics say Japan should, for the time being, keep the treated water in the tanks. They argue this buys time to develop new processing technologies, and allow any remaining radioactivity to naturally reduce.

There are also some scientists who are uncomfortable with the plan. They say it requires more studies on how it would affect the ocean bed and marine life.

“We’ve seen an inadequate radiological, ecological impact assessment that makes us very concerned that Japan would not only be unable to detect what’s getting into the water, sediment and organisms, but if it does, there is no recourse to remove it… there’s no way to get the genie back in the bottle,” marine biologist Robert Richmond, a professor with the University of Hawaii, told the BBC’s Newsday programme.

Tatsujiro Suzuki, a nuclear engineering professor from Nagasaki University’s Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, told the BBC the plan would “not necessarily lead to serious pollution or readily harm the public – if everything goes well”.

But given that Tepco failed to prevent the 2011 disaster, he remains concerned about a potential accidental release of contaminated water, he said.

What have Japan’s neighbours said?

China has demanded that Japan reaches an agreement with regional countries and international institutions before it releases the water.

Beijing has also accused Tokyo of violating “international moral and legal obligations”, and warned that if it proceeded with the plan, “it must bear all consequences”.

The two countries currently have a prickly relationship, with Japan’s recent military build-up and China’s provocative moves around Taiwan raising tensions.

Tokyo has engaged in talks with its neighbours, and hosted a South Korean team of experts on a tour of the Fukushima plant in May. But it is not certain how far it would commit to getting neighbouring countries’ approval before it goes ahead with the plan.

In contrast to China, Seoul – which has been keen to build ties with Japan – has soft-pedalled its concerns and on Tuesday it said it “respects” the IAEA’s findings.

But this approach has angered the South Korean public, 80% of whom are worried about the water release according to a recent poll.

“The government enforces a strong no-littering policy at sea… But now the government is not saying a word (to Japan) about the wastewater flowing into the ocean,” Park Hee-jun, a South Korean fisherman told BBC Korean.

“Some of the officials say we should remain quiet if we don’t want to make consumers even more anxious. I think that’s nonsense.”

Thousands have attended protests in Seoul calling for government action, as some shoppers fearing food supply disruptions have stockpiled salt and other necessities.

South Korean activists wearing masks of Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (R) and South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol (L) protest against the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) report on the Fukushima water release plan, at Gwanghwamun Square in Seoul on July 5, 2023.

Chung Sung-Jun

In response, South Korea’s parliament passed a resolution last week opposing the water release plan – though it is unclear what impact this would have on Japan’s decision. Officials are also launching “intense inspections” of seafood, and are sticking to an existing ban of Japanese seafood imports from regions around the Fukushima plant.

To assuage the public’s fears, prime minister Han Duck-soo said he would be willing to drink the Fukushima water to show it is safe, while one official said last week that only a small fraction of the discharge would end up in Korean waters.

Elsewhere in the region, several island nations have also expressed concerns with the Pacific Islands Forum regional group calling the plan another “major nuclear contamination disaster”.

How has Japan responded?

Japanese authorities and Tepco have sought to convince critics by explaining the science behind the treatment process, and they would continue to do so with “a high level of transparency”, promised prime minister Fumio Kishida on Tuesday.

In materials published on its foreign affairs ministry website, Japan also pointed out that other nuclear plants in the region – particularly those in China – discharge water with much higher levels of tritium. The BBC was able to verify some of these figures with publicly available data from Chinese nuclear plants.

But the biggest vindication may lie with the IAEA report, released by the agency’s chief Rafael Grossi while visiting Japan.

The report, which came after a two year investigation, looked into whether Tepco and Japanese authorities were meeting international safety standards on several aspects including facilities, inspections and enforcement, environmental monitoring, and radioactivity assessments.

On Tuesday, Mr Grossi said the plan would have a “negligible radiological impact on people and the environment”.

With the world’s nuclear watchdog giving its stamp of approval, Japan could start discharging the Fukushima water as early as August, according to some reports – setting the stage for an intensified showdown with its critics.

Additional reporting by Yuna Kim and Chika Nakayama.

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Two new hires bode well for China’s reform

If “personnel is policy,” as the old adage goes, then two big staffing moves over the weekend suggest China’s financial reform process is accelerating in critical ways.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping signaled as much by elevating protege Pan Gongsheng to Communist Party chief of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) – and likely to the PBOC governorship in short order.

Xi also reportedly named Ding Xuedong, a senior State Council official, as party chief of the National Council for Social Security Fund (NCSSF).

Pan’s promotion was a particular surprise. Last year, he was stripped of his membership in the party’s Central Committee, a status that was held by his PBOC predecessor Guo Shuqing.

Yet, given Pan’s experience and policy preferences, his ascent also suggests Beijing plans to avoid the yuan depreciation markets now fear. And that Xi and Premier Li Qiang are stepping up efforts to repair China’s shaky property markets.

Pan, who’s done stints at Harvard and Cambridge, has led since 2016 the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, managing China’s US$3 trillion-plus in foreign reserves. As such, Pan is thought to favor stabilizing a yuan that’s down more than 5% this year.

Pan, 59, skews technocratic in ways likely to accelerate steps to repair China’s reeling property sector and boost consumer spending. He’s also believed to favor less adversarial relations with the US, significantly on the eve of Janet Yellen’s first China visit as US Treasury Department secretary.

“China’s weak economic recovery and worsening geopolitical tensions likely prompted Pan’s hasty elevation,” says analyst Anna Ashton at Eurasia Group. “He is a proponent of regulatory reform and oversight and boasts strong international knowledge and connections relative to other Chinese central bankers.”

Over the years, Pan understood more than most in party circles that China’s real estate boom might be followed by a dramatic reckoning. Back in 2014, he warned that “if citizens store their wealth by buying houses, it may cause the real estate bubble to burst or even [cause] an economic crisis.”

Yet Pan’s charge to increase consumer confidence could get an important assist from Ding’s arrival at the social security fund. Ding’s promotion seems a sign that Xi and new Premier Li are getting serious about building a deeper and broader social safety net, a prerequisite to a more vibrant, consumer-driven China.

Ding, 63, has served as executive deputy secretary-general in China’s cabinet since 2018. His resume includes stints at the Ministry of Finance, the Financial Stability and Development Committee and state-owned China Investment Corp.

Ding Xuedong knows a thing or two about financial management. Image: CNBC / Screengrab

NCSSF was established in 2000 mainly to act as a reserve to cover shortfalls in pension funds. It stands separate from local government-managed social insurance funds, pensions and health care and unemployment funds.

Tapping Ding suggests the fund’s missions may be getting supersized and turbocharged at the same time. It’s long been known that such a shakeup is needed to encourage 1.4 billion mainlanders to save less and spend more.

“The economic recovery provides opportunities for further reducing financial risks, strengthening the social safety net and implementing market reforms to encourage private investment while putting the economy on a more efficient decarbonization path,” says World Bank economist Mara Warwick.

She adds that “implementation of key structural reforms remains crucial to solidify the recovery and achieve China’s longer-term goals of environmentally sustainable, resilient and inclusive growth.”

The social safety net piece of the puzzle is vital to prod mainland households to increase consumption to facilitate a shift from an export-driven growth model to one powered by domestic demand, Warwick notes.

Elitza Mileva, also a World Bank economist focused on China, notes that “as in the past, robust economic growth that creates jobs and boosts household incomes will remain important for shared prosperity.”

Equally important, though, Mileva adds, is that “policy, both revenue and spending measures, can be effective in promoting more equitable income distribution among China’s population.”

Economist Sophie Wieviorka at Crédit Agricole notes that theproblem is that China doesn’t currently wield the right drivers for public policy in these areas.”

“As of now, intervention is focused on purely Keynesian measures – including vouchers to pay with at local stores – for short-term use instead of developing a real social safety net, which could be implemented by the central government since it still has some room for maneuver with regard to debt,” she adds.

Chinese authorities, Wieviorka says,are caught in the middle” in part because of the “problem with over-indebtedness, which also partly explains the limited response of authorities regarding the budget.”

Wieviorka adds that “aware of its limited resources, China is painstakingly shedding its growth model, which is extensive – and based on an accumulation of labor and capital, and intensive – based on the optimization of existing resources. It’s a necessary move, but not always a winning strategy, as the middle-income trap is never far behind.”

So, building a better network of social safety nets has never been more important, as Ding’s arrival seems to suggest.

It’s more complicated than that, of course. As economist Brad Setser at the Council on Foreign Relations think tank observes, “China’s high domestic savings rate allows it to sustain higher debt levels than most emerging economies. No need for imported capital, and the state system can avoid internal confidence crises most of the time.”

China needs its consumers to save less and spend more. Photo: Facebook

Yet Japan reminds Asian peers about the evils of excessive savings. Zhu Min, a former deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), notes that China needs to fix the confidence gap to prod households to spend more. That, Zhu says, means better social safety nets by improving pensions and health care.

“I understand there is a lot of fear,” Zhu said. “We need really to take the fear away, rebuild the confidence. This is the most important thing.”

Current IMF economist Thomas Helbling notes that “expanding social safety nets, for example, by further increasing the adequacy and coverage of social assistance benefits and introducing a dedicated unemployment benefit system, would help enhance the automatic stabilizer role of fiscal policy.

“A comprehensive tax reform over the medium term to broaden the tax base is imperative to provide a stable source of revenue to meet long-term spending needs while ensuring fiscal sustainability.”

In general, Helbling says, the “prioritization of spending on households over investment would also deliver larger stabilization benefits. For example, means-tested transfers to households would boost aggregate demand 50% more than an equivalent amount of public investment. To ensure consistency across policies, fiscal policy should be undertaken within a medium-term fiscal framework.”

Helbling argues for “an ambitious but feasible set of reforms can improve these prospects, importantly in a way that is inclusive by raising the role of household consumption in demand.

“Reforms such as gradually lifting the retirement age to increase labor supply, strengthening unemployment and health insurance benefits, and reforming state-owned enterprises to close their productivity gap with private firms would significantly boost growth in coming years.”

As these vital reforms begin in earnest, Pan now has an opportunity to tap into what he recently termed China’s “rich experience” in responding to economic shocks using “plentiful macro-prudential tools.”

Initially, markets will be expecting Pan’s promotion to signal a “clearing of the way” for fresh stimulus moves, notes economist Hao Hong at GROW Investment Group.

Yet markets are also unclear about the big-picture meaning of Pan’s appointment. One source of confusion: does his relatively modest Communist Party ranking mean the PBOC is being downgraded in terms of its role in overall policymaking?

Already, the PBOC reports to Premier Li and the State Council, requiring their approval on managing the yuan or setting interest rates. Yet, on the other hand, indications are that Pan is on track to be both party chief and governor of the central bank. This, Eurasia’s Ashton notes, “will mark a return to the ‘single-head’ leadership structure that was the norm at the PBOC prior to 2018.”

From 2018 to 2023, she notes, current Governor Yi Gang and outgoing PBOC party chief Guo ran things as dual heads: Yi as governor and deputy party chief and Guo as party chief and deputy governor.

People's Bank of China Deputy Governor Yi Gang. Photo: Reuters, Aly Song
Governor Yi Gang shared power at the PBOC. Photo: Agencies

“Re-merging the roles of party secretary and governor,” Ashton says, “concentrates decision-making power and would ensure Pan greater authority within the central bank system.”

Either way, Pan seems a solid choice. PBOC leadership could do worse than being led by a Western-trained and battle-tested economist – one with in-the-trenches experience working at some of China’s ‘Big Four’ state-owned commercial banks. This includes experience at the Agricultural Bank of China.

And it includes an important changing of the guard at China’s social security apparatus that dovetails with new leadership at PBOC central. And by all past and present indications, both staffing moves bode well for China’s financial and economic reform prospects.

Follow William Pesek on Twitter at @WilliamPesek

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To decouple or to de-risk – that is the question

As is frequently the case in diplomacy, the communique that the G7 leaders released in May following their meeting in Hiroshima omitted a crucial question: What is the distinction between” de – risking ,” which it expressed approval of, and” decoupling ,” which it disapproved?

These words weren’t defined in the G7 speech. It didn’t even mention that China is the main target of both decoupling and de-risking. For you, that is politics.

The United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, Germany, France, and Italy’s officials merely stated that they were coordinating their strategies for economic resilience and economic protection” based on diversifying partnerships and de-risking, no decoupling.”

The ambiguity was deliberate, as is frequently the case in geopolitics. Distinctions between the US and some of its allies were quickly covered up. Economic resilience and” economic security” are diplo-speak terms for preventing an excessive reliance on China( and, to some extent, Russia ) for essential goods and avoiding providing those nations with strategically important technologies.

Dispersion, the term that was popular up until recently, appears to mean taking a deeper break from China than de-risking, according to the president of the European Commission. De-risking suggests diversifying, putting an end to the sole reliance on China, more than withdrawing.

But in reality, expansion has also played a significant role in the decoupling to date. The distinction between coupling and de-risking for statement purposes is semantics. Because of this, despite the fact that there are significant differences between the US and its supporters in regards to their reliance on China, they were able to agree to the statement.

Leaders of the G7 nations decided to” de-risk” their ties to China at their summit in Hiroshima rather than” recouple.” Website for Hiroshima Summit

These variations are a reflection of their various political circumstances, particularly with regard to Taiwan. The likelihood of a Chinese military assault on the island is growing, to the point where US officials must make preparations despite their best efforts to prevent it.

Friends of Washington don’t. Japan might, at least economically, support the US in the event of an attack. It is imprisoned by its geography and history. A China strike on Taiwan would be much less likely to be perceived as a difficulty by Western allies. They might be persuaded to join a coalition of the willing, but that is not inevitably going to happen.

Therefore, the US is more concerned about giving China military-strengthening technology. It is more concerned about China cutting off vital supplies during warfare.

Federal protection is more important to governments when they are making war plans than economic efficiency. Those who, like many exporting industries like farming, think that financial markets allocate money more effectively than governments and that free trade results in the best financial outcomes may find this difficult to swallow.

However, it explains why some Republican supporters of free markets supported industrial policy efforts put forth by the Biden administration. And why, in spite of warnings from US high-tech firms that restrictions may include long-term financial repercussions, Republicans are firmly behind the Biden administration’s stepped-up efforts to block export of the most advanced semiconductor technology to China.

Although they have some of the same worries about China as the US, Western nations are not nearly as concerned about national security. Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, has cautioned Europe not to become” caught up in problems that are not ours” in reference to Taiwan.

Europeans are unhappy with the high-tech grants and buy-American regulations of the Biden administration because they believe they are deterring purchase from them just as much as from China.

Some Europeans are also wary of US work to obstruct China’s exports of high-tech goods. However, the French government gradually joined the US in limiting French companies’ exports of the most cutting-edge semiconductor manufacturing machinery to China.

In conclusion, Europe prefers” de-risking” because it opposes the US’s desire for financial isolation from China. Because it is properly ambiguous to allow allies to march to various drummers, the Biden administration accepted” de – risking.”

In actuality, but is dissipating. US-China trade in goods set a document in 2022, as did US exports to China, despite all the talk of it over the past few years, the president’s industrial policy changes, export restrictions, and company disclosures of plans to move production up to the US or to Eastern countries other than China.

In 2019, freight vessels from China are unloaded at the Port of Los Angeles. AFP pictures by Mark Ralston

At$ 36.4 billion, US farming exports to China even broke a record for the fiscal year 2022.

Despite being competitors, National companies’ supply stores are firmly established in China. China is the US’s and approximately 120 other nations’ largest trading partner, including American allies like Japan, South Korea, and Germany.

In some product categories, such as drones and thermal panels, China holds a disproportionately large market share worldwide. It is also an essential provider of countless thousands of other products. China may undoubtedly stop exporting goods to the US in a battle, so it makes sense to reduce reliance on China.

Regardless of which political euphemism is used to identify it, it is unclear how much today’s supply chains can or will be untangled outside of war.

Urban Lehner, a longtime editor and correspondent for the Wall Street Journal Asia, is now the editor-emeritus of DTN / The Progressive Farmer. & nbsp,

Copyright 2023 DTN / The Progressive Farmer is the title of this article, which was first released on July 3 by the latter news organization and is now being republished with authority by Asia Times. All right are reserved. Urban Lehner follows @ urbanize on Twitter.

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Hun Sen vs Facebook amid another fixed election

Hun Sen, the prime minister of Cambodia, will no longer be able to threaten resistance followers on his Facebook page, but he can also stifle their votes as the nation gets ready for a general election.

Hun Sen, who has ruled the nation as the head of the Cambodian People’s Party for almost 40 years, appeared to possess deleted his Facebook page on June 30, 2023. Whether Hun Sen had taken down the page or Meta had removed it wasn’t quickly obvious.

Hun Sen’s Facebook page and Instagram account should be suspended immediately for six months, according to a proposal made by the oversight committee of the parent company of Facebook. In the movie, he urges political opponents who claim vote-rigging to choose between the” legal program” and” a bat.” Hun Sen furthermore threatens to” collect CPP people to resist and conquer( opposition) up” in the Facebook video that was posted on January 9.

Hun Sen, who had often posted on Facebook to his 14 million followers, receives a slap in the face from the selection. But as a political analyst in Cambodia, I am aware that it won’t significantly influence the outcome of the general election, which is set for July 23, 2023. Hun Sen served as Cambodia’s prime minister for 38 times. And new developments have merely strengthened Hun Sen’s hold on power.

Numerous functions, no criticism

As in the six national parliamentary elections held since officially democratic elections were reinstated in 1993, voters going to the polls will once more be given little real choice.

It’s not that voters didn’t have a choice of several functions on July 23. In actuality, the Cambodian People’s Party, which currently holds power, will be one of many events on the poll. Other than the CPP, there were 19 different events in the 2018 national poll.

The primary opposition group, the Cambodia National Rescue Party, is not on the list of events permitted to run, which presents a problem for democracy observers. The Thai Supreme Court, which is presided over by a permanent council part of Hun Sen’s CPP, ordered the convenient dissolution of the CNRP on November 16, 2017.

In preparation for the June 5 social votes in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, on Saturday, May 21, 2022, Candlelight Party followers wave before marching. Image: Twitter

Additionally, for administrative motives, the Candlelight Party— the last vestige of legitimate, trustworthy resistance in Cambodia— was denied registration for the upcoming election. CLP supporters think that a police raid on the criticism headquarters years earlier resulted in the theft of the missing documents that prevented registration.

These actions continue decades of Hun Sen and his ruling CPP’s removal of true choice from Vietnamese ballots. And it has been successful for Hun Sen and the CPP: In the most recent election, which was held in 2018, they received 77 % of the vote and won all 123 seats in the National Assembly.

Commander of the Khmer Rouge to authoritarian president

After being appointed deputy prime minister and foreign minister by the Vietnamese forces that liberated Cambodia from the Khmer Rouge in 1979— a murderous regime in which Hun Sen served as a commander — and then occupied the nation for ten years— Hun Send rose to power.

In 1985, Hun Sen took office as prime minister after Chan Sy passed away while his nation was still under Asian rule. Since then, he has continued to hold onto energy through tenure and a significant amount of brute force.

In a deal negotiated by Ranariddh’s father, King Norodom Sihanouk, Hun Sen was able to wriggle his way into the prime ministership – sharing position as” second prime Minister” with equal power to the” first chief minister ,” Prince Nirrodh. This was true even after the CPP lost the popular vote in 1993.

Hun Sen orchestrated a revolution in 1997 and succeeded Norodom Ranariddh after having an affair with his co-prime minister. Hun Sen resumed his position as the only prime minister in an election the next year and launched a campaign of repression, making arrangements for political rivals to be detained, imprisoned, and occasionally exiled.

By allowing opposition figures Kem Sokha and Sam Rainsy to shape the opposition CNRP in 2012, he let his shield down. In the 2013 vote, the CNRP narrowly defeated the CPP; some might even claim that it did, but who was in charge of counting the votes?

Since then, efforts to install opposition to the CPP have been further thwarted by the amazing changes in Cambodia’s society and economy, which have given Hun Sen credit for sound economic management.

Cambodia’s monthly gross domestic product growth averaged close to 8 % from 1998 to 2019 prior to the Covid-19 crisis. Since 1995, total national income, which is based on the purchasing power of the average person, has also increased tenfold, from US$ 760 to$ 5, 080.

But it has come at a price. Growth in the economy and infrastructure has been attributed to a land grab that has harmed remote producers. One farmer I heard of said that economic growth meant” they build a path and steal my land.”

Two men in hard hats shake hands
Wang Wentian, the Chinese envoy to Cambodia, shakes hands with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen. Tang Chhin Sothy, AFP via Getty Images, and The Conversation

And generally, that road was constructed by the Chinese using loans that the Thai people and their descendants will be required to pay back.

From oligarchy to a system of nepotism?

Hun Sen, however, is hesitant to make his report public for the benefit of citizens or a free press.

The state has imposed restrictions on independent media in advance of the July 23 vote. Hun Sen shut down the Voice of Democracy, one of the last absolutely independent sources.

Is it violence? to release a report claiming that the primary minister’s son and apparent heir signed an established government contribution to Turkey following the earthquake on behalf of his father. Hun Sen claimed that the report had damaged the president’s standing and that only the prime minister is permitted to sign off on international aid items.

A senior government official had been the supply. Voice of Democracy was yet held accountable and instructed to regret, which it did but was later silenced.

Hun Sen has been effective in stifling Cambodian criticism and media scrutiny, but he is powerless to stop sanctions and global attention.

The European Union, the White House, and the UN have all denounced Cambodia’s violations of human rights and anti-democratic law.

The US had some Thai commanders on the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability record, which was used to okay” culprits of serious human rights misuse and problem around the world ,” even before the most recent crackdown on opposition parties and independent media.

The EU, for its part, reduced the number of Cambodian goods eligible for zero duty imports due to concerns about human rights by 20 %, which will result in an estimated 1 billion euros($ 1.1 billion ) in annual revenue for Cambodia.

However, neither Facebook’s decision to deny him access to a social media account nor these actions have significantly pushed Cambodia toward political procedures.

Sophal Ear, Associate Professor at Arizona State University’s Thunderbird School of Global Management

Beyond his intellectual appointment, Sophal Ear has not disclosed any important affiliations. He also does not work for, demand, own shares in, or get funding from any businesses or organizations that might profit from this article.

Under a Creative Commons license, this post has been republished from The Conversation. read the article in its entirety.

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Japan shuns the market with chip firm nationalization

The government-controlled Japan Investment Corporation ( JIC ) will acquire TOKYO – JSR, one of the top two photoresist manufacturers in the semiconductor industry, and delist it from the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

As Japan tightens its ties with US export restrictions on high-end chips and chip-making technology to China, the proper state purchase, valued at 909.3 billion yen( US$ 6.4 billion ), was announced on June 26.

Crucial elements in chip-making supply chains are photoresists, the light-sensitive materials used to type circuit patterns on silicon and other types of chips during the photo-lithographic approach.

A 20-day sweet give period should start by late December after receiving regulatory authorization, with JIC acquiring 100 % possession of JSR in first 2024. Mizuho Bank and the Development Bank of Japan may provide financing for the transaction.

Due to the bargain, investors’ preferences, information disclosure required to analyze market trends, and completely market economics are most likely to suffer.

At the same time, from Tokyo’s perspective, the possibility of a foreign invasion and” environmentalist” owners interfering in Chinese management decisions will be eliminated.

Semiconductors have been identified as a crucial strategic industry by the government as part of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s” fresh capitalism” initiative, an ambiguous strategy to promote economic growth, raise wages, and more fairly spread wealth.

In a statement to reporters last month, Kishida stated that” securing an industrial center of transistor technology in Japan is essential from both the standpoints of renewables and economic security.”

Fumio Kishida, the prime minister of Japan, views the production of chips as a” smart” sector. Kyodo image

The sweet offer, according to JIC,” is designed to help JSR to smoothly and quickly market its bold, moderate – to long-term strategic investments without being constrained by the short – term impact on business efficiency ,” or without financial market discipline.

Additionally, the buy-out will allow JSR to” flexibly pursue structural reforms and restructuring” and” provide an opportunity for industry reorganization and private fund acquisition to strengthen the international competitiveness of[ Japan’s ] semiconductor materials industry ,” according to a company statement. & nbsp,

The transaction, in the opinion of JSR management,” reinforces our solid business foundation and accelerates green growth, and it’s the best strategic option at this point” for allJSR stakeholders.

What then is the real motivation behind the offer? Nearly 90 % of the global market for semiconductor photoresists is controlled by JSR, its main rival Tokyo Ohka Kogyo( TOK ), and three other Japanese companies, Shin – Etsu Chemical, Fujifilm, and Sumitomo Chemical.

The market share of JSR is already predicted to be between 30 and 35 %, while TOK’s share is probably only a few percentage points lower. This industry does not clearly need government support given its prominent position on the global market.

Additionally, JSR doesn’t seem to require any additional funding that JIC might be able to offer. The business has a strong balance sheet, and internal resources are used to cover cash expenditures. In the financial year that ends on March 2024, control hopes to achieve a 9.5 % operating margin.

However, a deep-pocked and like-minded state owner would be of great assistance if” strong strategic investments” entails doubling capital spending.

Mitsunobu Koshiba, chairman emeritus of JSR and an outside chairman of Rapidus, the business founded in 2022 to offer superior logic chip factory solutions in Japan, seems to be one website between federal policy and the buy-out. By 2027, Rapidus, which collaborates with IBM, hopes to achieve mass production at two nanometers( 2nm ).

Rapidus is Japan’s best chance to return to the forefront of chip manufacturing. Twitter picture

The” Post 5G Information and Communication Systems Infrastructure Enhancement R & amp, D Project,” run by Japan’s state New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization ( NEDO ), also includes Rapidus. Additionally, it collaborates with IMEC, a global nanoelectronics R & amp, D center with its headquarters in Belgium.

JSR is the owner of Inpria, an Oregon-based business that specializes in metal-oxide photoresists( the majority are made of plastics ). By the end of the decade, Inpria‘s resists, which were created especially for EUV printing, are anticipated to pave the way for chip generation at 1nm and smaller.

The advanced cards will be essential to proper industries like quantum computing, automatic vehicles, neuro-morphic devices, and 6G telecommunications. JSR and Inpria collaborate attentively with leading device manufacturers like Intel, TSMC, Samsung Electronics, and SK Hynix.

JSR is more than just a producer of silicon materials. Additionally, compared to 29 % for semiconductor materials, its life sciences division is anticipated to produce 32 % of sales this fiscal year. Electronic components like display, integrated circuit packaging, and plastics are expected to make 11 % of the contribution, followed by other materials of 4 %.

The life sciences industry, which is centered on biopharmaceuticals, needs to invest in potential development, product development, advertising, and operational effectiveness. For a portion of JSR’s capital expenditure and management attention, it competes with electrical materials.

JSR control anticipates that JIC will help” a thorough expansion strategy and action plan” for the life sciences. It could be argued that dividing JSR into two companies, which would be easier to do without open shareholder disputes, would provide the most beneficial support.

An impartial electronic materials company could focus on overcoming obstacles from smaller Chinese, South Korean, American, German, and fresh Chinese competitors who are all vying for a larger market share while also staying ahead of TOK in photoresists.

The tender offer will be made for 4, 350 yen($ 30 ), a 34.5 % premium over the asking price just before the buy-out was revealed, and only 4 % below the all-time high set in December 2021.

JSR closed at 4, 110 hankering on June 30, a 27 % increase over the news of the deal. Over the same five days, TOK’s share price increased by 9 %.

For TOK or other material manufacturers, an intense rival with preferential financing would not be great news, but investors may soon have few options.

On the other hand, owners are currently profitable. As one trader stated in a private conversation, he was happy to accept the profit even though his account did not purchase JSR in anticipation of repurchase.

Policy-driven investments was, of course, refuse, as it did in the cases of Japan Display, which stood no prospect against the South Koreans and Chinese, and Elpida, a DRAM manufacturer that Micron bought for incredibly low prices after Chinese banks failed.

Or, coverage success may result in the acquisition and delisting of additional Chinese tech companies, which could be advantageous to current shareholders.

Eric Johnson, Director of JSR, referred to JIC as a” natural source of capital” while speaking on camera for investors and the media. However, the Development Bank of Japan and 24 major private sector companies make up the remaining 96.5 % of JIC, which is owned by the Chinese state.

The capital of JSR CEO Eric Johnson is” balanced.” JSR site image

According to a company speech, JIC defines its function as follows:” We, Japan Investment Corporation, provide risk investment to fields in which most secret owners are reluctant to invest.” While enhancing global fight, we want to encourage business and industry move.

Reluctance to spend, however, does not appear to be an issue in this instance. According to the bank’s website, JSR is followed by experts from 19 stocks companies. 54 % of its shares are owned by foreign buyers.

Additionally, JSR anticipates a transitional buy-out, stating in its” Highlights of the Transaction” statement that the” plan” will” relist” once continuous growth and expansion in corporate value is realized.

This suggests that JSR and JIC anticipate a dangerous and energetic time when the stock market’s short-termism will make it more difficult for the company to keep up with developments in the device market.

That’s in line with the viewpoint of JIC CEO Keisuke Yokoo.

Today, development is moving quickly across the globe, catalyzing contests and business restructuring that cross standard industrial and organizational boundaries, according to Yokoo. We are therefore dealing with a powerful change in the dynamic environment and the structure of business, he said.

However, only time will tell if JSR’s buy-out and withdrawal is the best course of action to safeguard both the future of the business and the objectives of Japan as a whole.

Follow this author on Twitter at @ ScottFo83517667.

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Benodebehari Mukherjee: Blind Indian painter’s forgotten scroll found after 100 years

Scroll detailSantiniketan images

In Kolkata, the city where he was born, a 44-foot-long Japanese-style handscroll that was painted almost 100 years ago by an illustrious Indian blind artist has resurfaced and is now on display to the public.

Born in 1904, Benodebehari Mukherjee had severe myopia in one gaze and blindness in the other. At age 53, he completely lost his perspective. Muckerjee, who passed away in 1980, produced ground-breaking works as a landscape and fresco artists. He came to define modern arts in 20th-century India and was also a sculptor and painter.

In July, the scroll – which is just six inches wide – will travel to Santiniketan, the university town founded in West Bengal a century ago by Nobel Laureate Rabindranath Tagore, where Mukherjee was a student and later a teacher. The scroll, the longest that the artist created, is titled Santiniketan images.

Before arriving in Kolkata, where it is currently on display, the roll changed hands twice.

It appears that Mukherjee either gave or sold the roll to Sudhir Khastagir, a Santiniketan arts school graduate, as early as 1929. Khastagir after relocated to Dehra Dun to work as an art instructor for a prestigious institution. He gave the roll to another designer, who later sold it for an undisclosed sum to Rakesh Saini, an historian and the owner of an art gallery in Kolkata, six years ago.

Mukherjee had created this fascinating scroll at the age of 20 using ink and watercolors on properly layered sheets of paper. The number in the first frame is seated beneath a branch; this could be the artist himself, leading the viewer through Santiniketan. In Chinese and Japanese scrolls, carefully placed figures direct our viewing, and this motive is frequently used.

A journey through time and space begins as the spectator moves from right to left, leading her into a jungle of sal trees painted in black ink before gradually changing to shades of green that reflect the changing seasons.

Ray with Benod Bihari

Ghosh Nemai

A gentleman pulling a bull vehicle passes by. The audience pauses at a village where date palm sap is being boiled to create toddy, an indigenous beverage. The wheat fields take on a light, light green hue as the grain ripens, and the once-bloomy tree leaves change to an autumnal colored. Winter arrives, bringing with it a kind of loneliness that is depicted in the final image of the khoai, an area of schist soil that resembles canyons close to Santiniketan.

22 people, 22 animal, 3 chicken, 1 dog, and 1 bird are depicted on the scroll. Mukherjee uses exercises of loneliness to represent the land and sky.

According to eminent art historian Siva Kumar, the roll is permeated with the author’s” solitude, a sense of loneliness gently expressed and presented… a condition of his life, without self-pity or bitterness.” He claims that the roll” bears all indications of the author’s genius that blossomed in the years to come.”

The khoai, which is just over 10 foot long and was painted in the middle of the 1930s, was Mukherjee’s longest piece until it was published.

One of India’s greatest designers, Nandalal Bose, who oversaw Kala Bhavan, the arts school, taught Mukherjee at Santiniketan. According to Siva Kumar, Bose had expressed worry to Tagore about a visually impaired arts pupil. Tagore retorted,” Is he honest? He seems serious. So leave him alone.

scroll detail

Santiniketan images

scroll detail

Santiniketan images

scroll

Santiniketan images

Individuals of Mukherjee at Kala Bhavan were almost as well-known as his mentors. Artists like KG Subramanyan, Somnath Hore, and Oscar-winning director Satyajit Ray were among them. Ray produced a film about Mukherjee in 1972 called The Inner Eye. The poignant ode thrust the lonely actor and his creations onto the international stage.

Tagore and Bose’s handcroll photographs that they had brought up from their trip to Japan may have served as inspiration for Mukherjee. According to Siva Kumar,” Mukherjee was particularly interested in the scroll’s format because it offers some possibilities that other forms do not, such as[ showing ] the passage of time.”

” Rather than just standing there and gazing at it, you can restore the experience of walking through a landscape.” In typical landscapes, character is fragmented. However, you can demonstrate persistence and change in a handscroll.

SCROLL ON DISPLAY

MONIDEEPA bANERJIE

Presentational white space

So where did the Scenes vanish for almost a decade?

The roll was purchased from a collection in 2017 by Rakesh Sahni, the owner of Gallery Rasa in Kolkata. Mr. Sahni remarks,” I may have displayed it earlier, but I lost three times to the crisis.”

Reproductions of Mukherjee’s other artifacts, such as Scenes in Jungle, Village Scene, and The Khoai, are also on exhibit at the Kolkata present. The Victoria & amp, Albert Museum in London is the owner of the final painting, which is depicted on a semi-circular fruit tree stem.

mural

Ray with Benod Bihari

Ghosh Nemai

The frescoes on the walls and ceilings of houses in and around Kala Bhavan are among Mukherjee’s different well-known creations in Santiniketan. The Lives of Medieval Saints on the surfaces of Cheena Bhavan, a Sino-Indian ethnic studies center, is arguably the most well-known. It is nearly eight feet tall and sprawled across an impressive 80 feet. Before the actor lost his perspective, the frescoes and manuscripts were finished.

After having his practical naive eye amputated during surgery, Mukherjee continued to produce murals, collage pieces, and sculptures using the same artistry as when he was also able to see.

Mukherjee made a rare remark about Ray’s vision impairment in his film.

Deafness is a novel sensation, experience, and state of being.

Perhaps that is Mukherjee’s best obituary.

Karen Allen on one last hurrah as Marion Ravenwood in Indiana Jones: Dial Of Destiny

Indiana Jones. Karen Allen always knew he’d come walking back through her door.

Since 1981’s Raiders Of The Lost Ark, Allen has been only a sporadic presence in the subsequent sequels. But the glow of the freckled, big-eyed actor who so memorably played Marion Ravenwood has only grown stronger over time.

Indiana Jones may be one of the movies’ most iconic characters, but he’s always needed a good foil. It was Kate Capshaw and Ke Huy Quan in Temple Of Doom and Sean Connery in The Last Crusade.

Yet, none could top, or out-drink, Allen’s Marion, a wisecracking, naturalistic beauty and swashbuckling heir to screwball legends like Katharine Hepburn and Irene Dunne.

Allen’s place in the latest and last Indiana Jones, the just-released Dial Of Destiny, has long been a mystery. Now that the movie is in theatres  spoiler alert  we can finally let the cat out of the bag. Allen returns. And while her role isn’t large  tragedy has driven Marion and Indiana apart  it’s extremely poignant in how she figures into Harrison Ford’s swan song as Indiana Jones.

“Secrets,” Allen chuckled in a recent interview, “are not my specialty.”

Allen, 71, was a magnetic presence in some memorable 1970s and 1980s films, including 1978’s Animal House (the performance that caught Steven Spielberg’s eye), 1984’s Starman and 1988’s Scrooged.

But while she’s steadily worked ever since, the era’s male-dominated Hollywood often seemed to squander her talent. Allen has lived for decades in the Berkshires, where she opened a textiles and clothing boutique and has frequently performed at Tanglewood.

Allen also returned to Marion in 2008’s Indiana Jones And The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull. But as much as Dial Of Destiny signifies the end of Ford’s run as Indy, it’s also Allen’s goodbye to her most beloved character. This time, Indiana’s sidekick went to Phoebe Waller-Bridge, the Fleabag creator and star. Allen, praising Waller-Bridge as a strong woman, approves.

“If it wasn’t going to be me,” said Allen, “I’m glad it was her.” More about her role below:

Did Steven Spielberg or Dial Of Destiny director James Mangold reach out to you about returning as Marion?

There was a period of time when Steven was going to direct the film. It was my understanding although I never read any of those scripts  that it was being developed very much as a still-ongoing Marion-and-Indy story.

When Steven decided to step down and James took over and brought in new writers, I knew it was going into a different direction. Having not even known what it was before, it was even more mysterious after they took it over. So I really didn’t know anything for a long period of time until they had a script.

And I have to confess, I was a bit disappointed that she wasn’t more woven throughout the story and didn’t have more of an ongoing trajectory. However, the way in which she does come back into the story was very satisfying. I just thought, “okay, I’m just going to embrace this”. I certainly would have been wildly disappointed had Marion just sort of vanished into the ether.

Did you always think Marion and Indiana were destined for each other? You don’t exactly get a sense of permanence between them in Raiders.

It’s funny. When I first started working on it, I just decided that Indy was the love of her life. I just decided to make a deep commitment to that and to play through Raiders Of The Lost Ark with the feeling they’re soulmates. When we end up married in Crystal Skull, I wept when I read that script.

Indiana Jones could be a boys world but you were such a spirited force of nature.

Well, Steven and George had this experience as young boys with these Saturday afternoon matinee serial films. They were just a little bit older than I am, so I kind of missed that. I don’t have a reference point for that. So I don’t think that I necessarily understood the genre of film we were making. I thought we were making Casablanca. I really, truly did.

So, I sort of defined my character in that sort of genre  which I think weirdly enough works quite well for the film. I never imagined Marion as a damsel in distress in any sort of way. I was always pushing back against that, and in the end, Steven was supportive of that.

Do you ever wish you had gotten the chance to star in more Hollywood films?

I make movies all the time, although I have tended in the last 10 or 15 years to focus more on indie films. In truth, the kinds of roles I’m really hungry to play, particularly for someone my age, they’re written more in the indie world.

People kind of think, “where have you been?”. There were times I was raising my son but I often do at least two films a year. They’re very satisfying, probably more satisfying than the sort of roles I would be offered. A lot of times I turned down things. There’s a lot of thankless roles for women in bigger budget films.

What has Marion meant to you?

She’s sort of at the core of my growth as an actor and certainly my relationship to the world. As I move through the world, I’ve become very identified with that character. There was maybe a brief period of time where I found it annoying.

But that passed and now it’s just this character that I love. I can’t imagine anything more satisfying to have had the chance in life to create a character that has some meaning for people.

What was it like to shoot your scenes with Harrison Ford in Dial Of Destiny?

It was fantastic. We shot it all in one day or maybe two days. To just imagine these two people that have been wrenched apart through grief and loss and then she’s coming back with this hope that they can move forward. When we played the scene, that was very, very affecting. We were both very affected by it and a little teary. And the crew was a little teary.

How has it been keeping your role in the film secret?

It’s been excruciating. (Laughs) I never have to do anything like this again. People have come up to me and they’ve been so upset because they didn’t see my name on IMDb. People would be so mad I’d have to stand there and just be like, “what do I say?”.

Do I say, “yeah, isn’t that a drag?” or “You never never know  wink, wink”. I’ve had to say I just can’t answer any questions about Indiana Jones  which I feel like is sort of saying that I’m in the film. It’s a lose-lose situation. (Laughs)

Does playing Marion one last time cap anything for you?

More so for Harrison than for me. He’s such a fully developed character and has done all five of these. With Marion, I’ve kind of come and gone. But she will always be a character that moves through life with me.

I don’t know if I really have a sense of it being over. There always was a sense that one more would be done, even if it took 20 years. Now, they’ve been very clear that this is the last one. So it is a letting-go.

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