House moves to revoke NCPO orders

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Military influence in South to decrease

PUBLISHED : 22 Feb 2024 at 05:46

The House of Representatives on Wednesday agreed in principle with three bills that aim to abolish orders issued by the now-defunct National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO).

The orders restrict public participation in the administration of the restive South while allowing way too much military influence in managing the administrative bodies in the southern border provinces, according to complaints from various political parties.

The three bills which were deliberated one after another and won approval in their first readings in the Lower House on Wednesday.

The bills were proposed by Yunaidee Waba, a Democrat Party MP for Pattani; Chusak Sirinil, Pheu Thai Party deputy leader; and Romadon Panjor, a list MP of the main opposition Move Forward Party.

At the end of Wednesday’s deliberation, the House voted 421-0 to approve the bills in their first reading. It agreed to form a House committee to vet them.

The three orders came under the 14th instruction of the NCPO which was issued in 2016. They have effectively led to the Southern Border Administration Act being rendered partially invalid.

The invalid sections disrupt the function of the advisory council of the Southern Border Administration and Development, which consists of members represented by residents in the far South.

Before the so-called “14th/2016 NCPO” orders were launched, the council had a key role in monitoring the work of the Southern Border Provinces Administration Centre (SBPAC), a key administrative agency, said Mr Yunaidee.

However, when the orders came, the NCPO appointed its own advisory committee to supervise the SBPAC, which was blamed for a drop in the SBPAC’s efficiency and the lack of public participation and input in the centre’s decision-making process, he said.

The NCPO’s advisory committee has also taken over from the council the duty of offering advice on southern border affairs to the prime minister and the SBPAC’s chief, he said.

The NCPO’s orders have also allowed the Internal Security Operation Command, a military organisation, to have influence over the SBPAC, a civilian-run agency, said Pheu Thai list-MP Chaturon Chaisang, in his capacity as chairman of the House special committee monitoring the government’s work to promote peace in the South.

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Philippines arming up for D-Day with China – Asia Times

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MANILA – Wu Shicun, chairman of China’s state-funded Huayang Center for Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance, fired a shot across the Philippines’ bow by saying China should “show our swords when necessary” in the South China Sea.

The Chinese maritime expert added that “patience and self-control from China would not be enough” to manage the sea disputes, according to a provocative article he penned this week in the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post.

Wu’s saber-rattling aligns with China’s warning earlier this month that the Philippines is “playing with fire” amid reports it is fortifying its military presence with troops and construction on remote but strategically important islands near Taiwan’s southern shores.

China is clearly perturbed by Manila’s possible decision to grant traditional security partners, namely the United States but also Japan, access to military facilities in Batanes, the island-nation’s northernmost province less than 200 kilometers from Taiwan’s southern shores.

The Philippines is now reportedly considering major exercises with the US and other allies in its northernmost provinces later this year, maneuvers that would stir China’s growing concern that the Southeast Asian nation aims to serve as a hub for an expanded Western military presence south of Taiwan.

US forces and military equipment could be formally deployed to Batanes on a rotational basis under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), which Manila recently agreed to expand to allow US forces access to more bases across the country. A similar agreement is reportedly in the works with Japan.  

Philippine and US Marines during a surface-to-air missile simulation as part of exercise Kamandag joint exercises on October 10, 2019. Photo: Lance Cpl. Brienna Tuck / US Marine Corps

However, US access to Batanes is apparently not yet a done deal. That likely explains why Beijing’s foreign ministry warned last week that Taiwan is “at the center of China’s core interests and represents an insurmountable red line and bottom line.”

Despite those threats and warnings, the Philippines is doubling down on efforts to preserve its sovereignty in the disputed waters while preparing for contingencies in nearby Taiwan, which is separated by the narrow Bashi Channel from northernmost Philippine provinces.

As such, Manila is stepping up its acquisition of increasingly high-end military equipment while expanding sophisticated military exercises with partners including the US, Japan and Australia.

Aside from relying on US military aid, including a recently delivered C-130 transport plane, the Philippines is aiming to procure modern fighter jets, submarines and strategic missile systems under a 2 trillion peso (US$36 billion) military modernization program.

That big gun budget has gained the attention of regional arms vendors. Over 20 Indian defense companies visited the Philippines recently to explore expanded military cooperation following New Delhi’s recent delivery of its Brahmos supersonic missiles to the Southeast Asian nation.

Meanwhile, the Philippines and Sweden are also exploring a major fighter jet deal as Manila aims to modernize its relatively small and aging fleet.

Most dramatically, France is offering a multibillion-dollar submarine deal to the Philippines amid negotiations over a reciprocal access agreement.

The European power is expected to participate for the first time this year in the Philippine-US Balikatan exercises, among the region’s largest. Other new partners such as South Korea and Spain are also offering modern weapons systems to the Southeast Asian nation.

In the dragon’s shadow

Although the continent-sized China has territorial and maritime disputes with a wide range of nations across its massive borders, tensions with the Philippines have reached a fever pitch in recent months.

For China, the Southeast Asian nation has rapidly transformed from a “special friend” in Southeast Asia under the Rodrigo Duterte presidency (2016-2022) into a major enabler of Western power projection under the Ferdinand Marcos Jr administration.

Despite pronouncing a “new golden era” in bilateral relations, Marcos Jr has steadily adopted an uncompromising stance on the two sides’ South China Sea disputes.

That shift came after his largely fruitless state visit to Beijing last year, which produced no tangible agreements on outstanding bilateral concerns including the intensifying maritime spats and the billions of dollars of unfulfilled Chinese infrastructure investment pledges made but not delivered to the Duterte administration.

For Duterte’s successor, that meant it was time for the Philippines to draw a hard new line and fundamentally reset relations. In that direction, Marcos Jr greenlighted the expansion of defense cooperation with traditional allies as well as more assertive patrols by Philippine maritime forces.

These moves, the president appears to believe, allow him to deal diplomatically with China from a comparative position of strength.

For China, however, the Philippines is flirting with armed conflict by engaging in what sees as overtly provocative actions.

Those include Manila’s plans to fortify its de facto maritime military bases reaching from the Second Thomas Shoal to Thitu Island and the increasing frequency and scope of joint maritime drills with Western powers in the South China Sea.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr and Chinese President Xi Jinping in January in Beijing. Photo: Asia Times files

Now and perhaps most crucially, Beijing is closely monitoring Manila’s emerging new strategic posture on Taiwan. The Marcos Jr administration has so far sent mixed signals on whether it will grant US access to prized Philippine bases near Taiwan’s southern shores.

But given Beijing’s rising preparations for possible kinetic action against the self-ruling island, it’s clearly in no mood for Manila’s strategic reorientation toward the West and its regional allies.

By all indications, vigorous debates are underway in China on how to dissuade the Philippines from its current course, with some experts like Wu calling for a more decisive and coercive response.

Wary of China’s immense military superiority, the Philippines is leaning into an expanding network of strategic partners who share similar threat perceptions about the Asian superpower.

Big guns wanted

Coincident with emerging as one of the region’s fastest-growing economies, the Philippines is also becoming a major defense market. The US will deliver three new C-130J-30 Super Hercules airlifters worth $400 million between July 2026 and January 2027.

Ongoing negotiations are also underway for the potential sale of American F16 fighter jets to the Philippine Air Force, though they have reportedly hit a snag over price issues.

Manila is also reportedly considering alternative European options, most notably from Sweden, which is offering more affordable alternatives such as the Saab Jas-39 Gripen multirole fighter.

The French, Spanish and South Koreans, meanwhile, are offering multi-billion submarine deals. The Philippine Navy has indicated its preference for up to three submarines, which, according to military experts could be a game changer in shifting the heavily lopsided regional naval balance of power.

“Three is the magic number…one [submarine] in operation, one in training and one in refit or maintenance,” Ian Storey, a leading maritime security expert, told the media.

Meanwhile, a large delegation of Indian defense companies including Mahindra Emirates Vehicle Armouring, Bharat Dynamics Ltd, Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd, DCM Shriram Industries Ltd, and MKU Ltd recently visited Manila for the inaugural India-Philippines defense industry seminar.

“We have announced our intent to offer a soft loan for defense procurements and this could also cover activities that would eventually extend some sort of joint industrial activity,” Indian Ambassador Shambhu Kumaran said on the sidelines of the defense industry seminar in Manila on February 16.

“India’s unique selling proposition is that we are able to bring cutting-edge technology at competitive prices,” the diplomat said.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Richeydarian

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Ravichandran Ashwin: The spin maestro who defied odds to reach 500 wickets

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India's Ravichandran Ashwin celebrates after taking the wicket of England's Ben Duckett during the first day of the first Test cricket match between India and England at the Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium in Hyderabad on January 25, 2024.Getty Images
By Suresh Menon
Sports Writer

Of the nine bowlers who have claimed 500 Test wickets, India’s Ravichandran Ashwin – who has joined the club now – is by far the best batter with five centuries.

Had Ashwin, 37, chosen to focus on batting to the exclusion of bowling, it is possible he might have finished with over 10,000 Test runs.

On Friday, he became only the ninth man to reach the 500-milestone. On the same day, the off-spinner pulled out of the third Test against England because of a family emergency but now he is back with the squad.

There is a silken touch to Ashwin’s batting and stubbornness that saw him stoutly save a Test alongside Hanuma Vihari. Both batters suffered body blows and injuries in the match.

There is a similar combination of the artistic and the abrasive, the classical and the contemporary, in his bowling too. The variations on the off-break theme he developed early meant that at the start of his career he tended to try too many things. (An off-break delivery turns from the off side to the leg side when bowled at a right-handed batsman. It is the most popular method of spin in cricket.)

It ranged from his run-up to how he held the ball in his hand to the angle of the seam. It went against traditional wisdom which held you should have a stock ball and use the variations sparingly. But it served Ashwin well, and he picked up nine five-wicket hauls in his first 16 Tests.

In many ways, Ashwin is in a class of one, even if he has to share the tag of being the best contemporary off spinner with Australia’s Nathan Lyon. He is often not considered as the best ever because 70% of his wickets have come at home in familiar conditions.

Ravichandran Ashwin bowls during the first day of the first Test cricket match between India and England at the Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium in Hyderabad on January 25, 2024. (

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India has a rich tradition of off-spin bowling from Ghulam Ahmed, Erapalli Prasanna, Srinivas Venkataraghavan to Harbhajan Singh and Ashwin. Each is an original – that might have had something to do with their success. That three of them, including Ashwin, are qualified engineers might be a coincidence, but off-spinners have to work harder at their craft, and that combination of discipline and brainpower is useful.

Give a ball to anyone and ask them to spin it. Chances are they will bowl an off-break. It makes for familiarity for right handers, whose natural swing is to leg. This, combined with powerful modern bats, ensures the off-spinner has a tough job. With the growth of white-ball cricket, it was assumed the tribe would vanish. So those who have succeeded over many years – Ashwin made his debut in 2011 – and in different conditions are special.

“Obsessive” is the word that is often used to describe him because he is constantly thinking about his game. He speaks with authority and intelligence, he also developed the carrom ball, flicking it with his middle finger to make it go the other way. It speaks of strong fingers, a strong mind and confidence in his craft.

With ball in hand, he is a poker player who plays as if he can see the other’s hand. In recent years, he has been in and out of the Indian team, but has always given the impression that he is still a step ahead of everyone else. In the modern game nothing is secret for long. Develop a new delivery and by the end of the day, the computer has analysed it to death and a schoolboy in Iceland is trying it out. Bowlers need to work hard to keep ahead of the MacBook.

India bowler Ravi Ashwin celebrates after taking the wicket of England batsman Ben Duckett during day one of the 1st Test Match between India and England at Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium on January 25, 2024 in Hyderabad, India.

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Once younger men began to lead India, Ashwin knew his chances of captaining were gone – he would have made a fine captain. The other 10 players might have found it a tad difficult to understand him initially since his mind moves on a different plane – he has said, for instance, that the bad ball can be the most dangerous in T20 cricket – but once he won their confidence, they would be eating out of his hands.

With Ravindra Jadeja, Ashwin formed India’s most effective bowling partnership, with 500-plus wickets bowling as a pair. Jadeja is a nice contrast – steady, quick, chipping away, the straight man to Ashwin’s varied expressions. In some ways, the pair they displaced, Anil Kumble-Harbhajan Singh, had similar temperaments.

Among Indians, Ashwin’s tally is second only to that of Kumble. He told an interviewer some years ago, “I am a big fan of Kumble’s. He has 619 wickets. If I get to 618 I will be very thankful and that will be my last Test match.”

It is a peep into the mind of a fascinating man.

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Chinese hand in global nickel price collapse – Asia Times

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Australia’s nickel industry has been granted access to billions of dollars in federal funding as well as relief from royalty payments after a collapse in the global price of nickel that threatens thousands of jobs.

On Thursday (February 15), BHP wrote down the value of its West Australian nickel division Nickel West to zero and said it was considering placing the entire division into a “period of care and maintenance.”

Nickel is a metal crucial for the production of stainless steel, alloys, electroplating and the batteries used in electric vehicles.

The global price has dived from a high of US$50,000 in 2022 to just $16,400 per tonne on Monday in response to a huge increase in supply from Indonesia, much of it from Chinese-owned and operated mines.

On Monday ahead of this week’s Cabinet meeting in Perth, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Indonesia had increased its share of the global nickel market by more than ten times.

Last Friday, his government added nickel to the official Critical Minerals List, giving it access to grants under the A$4 billion (US$2.6 billion) Critical Minerals Facility.

And then on Saturday (February 17), the West Australian premier granted miners a temporary 50% rebate on royalties for the next 18 months whenever prices are below US$20,000 per tonne.

Lithium, cobalt, nickel and graphite are needed for batteries and were touted by Treasurer Jim Chalmers as essential for powering the clean-energy technologies of the future.

Australia and Indonesia hold the world’s largest reserves of Nickel, each with about 21 million tonnes.

But China is by far the largest customer, accounting for 35% of the nickel processed worldwide plus about another 15% it processes in Indonesia.

China also accounts for about 80% of the rare earths processed worldwide, 90% of the lithium, 70% of the gallium and the 70% of germanium.

Its incredibly low cost of processing and competitive labor market give it an almost unassailable advantage, turning suppliers into price takers rather than price makers.

China helped fund the oversupply

So, what went wrong for Australia? To help keep prices low China invested in mines in Indonesia, hugely increasing their output.

Australia is attempting to establish alternative processing chains, entering into critical minerals partnerships with India, Japan, Korea, the United States and the United Kingdom.

But such attempts run the risk of strategic responses in the form of export bans on processed commodities (China has previously imposed bans on the export of Gallium, Germanium and rare earths) and moves to create oversupplies.

Australia is a leading producer of critical minerals, supplying all ten of the elements needed for lithium-ion batteries, and has the advantage of better environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards that make it an attractive destination for investment.

But it lacks the capacity to refine all of its own production, meaning it has to dispose of many of the critical minerals it extracts as byproducts.

Until Australia can find a way to break free of the market stranglehold of our biggest customer, those investments will remain at risk.

On Monday (February 19), Albanese said he was working on a larger response that would ensure Australia had an “ongoing industry in nickel”, which would be one of the resources of the 21st century.

One such effective response would be the creation of a large processing facility to service multiple mines, selling Australian-sourced and processed critical minerals that adhere to higher ESG standards compared to those sourced and processed elsewhere.

The prime minister said the decision wouldn’t be quick. He didn’t want a response that lasted “a day or two.”

Mohan Yellishetty is co-Founder, Critical Minerals Consortium, and Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Japan: Defence ministry eases haircut rules for troops

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Japanese troops jogging in the dayReuters

New recruits to the Japanese military will be allowed to have longer hair in a bid to attract more young people, the country’s defence ministry has said.

The announcement comes as Japan struggles with a shortage of soldiers in the face of growing concerns about China and North Korea.

Only buzz cuts were allowed for male recruits, and short hair for females.

But from April, the rules will be relaxed to allow troops to have longer hair.

Under the new rules, male troops will be allowed to have short back and sides with longer hair on top.

Female personnel will be allowed to have longer hair – but cannot fall onto the shoulders when it is tied up while in uniform – and does not interfere with the wearing of a helmet.

According to the Kyodo news agency, news of the relaxed rule was first reported in January during an expert panel meeting tasked with boosting troop numbers for Japan’s Self-Defence Forces (JSDF).

Defence minister Minoru Kihara said during that meeting: “As our nation faces a serious workforce shortage, we recognize competition with others, including the private sector, to secure talent has been intensifying.”

The role of Japan’s military since World War Two has been exclusively defensive in line with the country’s pacifist constitution.

The bid to drive up recruitment comes as Japan grapples with China’s rapid military build-up and North Korea’s expanding missile and nuclear programs.

Last year, Japan announced it would substantially boost its defence spending over the next five years, but the JSDF has been struggling to hit recruitment targets, with officials saying the army is operating at 10% below capacity.

The Japan Times has reported that on top of a declining birth rate and having the world’s oldest population, low morale due to poor pay and allegations of sexual harassment has also hindered recruitment.

Last year it was reported that the country’s defence ministry was also considering moves to allow people with tattoos to join the JSDF.

Tattoos have long been taboo in Japan, where they are associated with yakuza organised crime gangs.

Officials have acknowledged that many people who have tattoos are not gangsters and the ban was hindering recruitment.

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Budget 2024: 6 key takeaways, from CPF changes to more CDC vouchers and less property taxes

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SINGAPORE: Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong on Friday (Feb 16) announced several financial measures to help both Singaporeans and businesses, in what was likely his last Budget before the country’s leadership transition. These included more payouts to alleviate cost-of-living concerns, moves to make preschools more affordable and a new SkillsFutureContinue Reading

Budget 2024: 6 key takeaways, from CPF changes to more CDC vouchers and less property tax

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SINGAPORE: Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong on Friday (Feb 16) announced several financial measures to help both Singaporeans and businesses, in what was likely his last Budget before the country’s leadership transition. These included more payouts to alleviate cost-of-living concerns, moves to make preschools more affordable and a new SkillsFutureContinue Reading

Budget 2024: CPF Enhanced Retirement Sum to increase; Special Account to be closed for those 55 and above

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SINGAPORE: Central Provident Fund (CPF) members aged at least 55 will no longer have a Special Account from 2025 onwards, but they will be able to put more money into their Retirement Accounts, said Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong in his Budget speech on Friday (Feb 16).

These moves are meant to better support the retirement needs of seniors in Singapore, he added.

The Enhanced Retirement Sum is the maximum amount that CPF members can put into their Retirement Accounts to receive payouts. It is currently set at three times the Basic Retirement Sum (BRS), but will be increased to four times the BRS next year.

“This will allow more members aged 55 and above to fully commit their accumulated CPF savings to receive higher payouts, should they wish to do so,” he said.

WHAT IT MEANS

Having more money in a CPF Retirement Account translates to bigger monthly payouts. According to the Ministry of Finance, a CPF member with three times the Basic Retirement Sum in 2025 can have an estimated monthly payout of S$2,530 (US$1,880).

By comparison, a member with four times the BRS next year – or S$426,000 – can receive an estimated monthly payout of S$3,330.

CPF members can voluntarily top up their Retirement Accounts by transferring savings from their Ordinary Account or by making cash top-ups.

Meanwhile, the closure of Special Accounts means that savings in the account will be transferred to the Retirement Account up to the Full Retirement Sum, which is two times the basic sum.

“The remaining (Special Account) savings will be transferred to the Ordinary Account. Of course, members can voluntarily transfer these OA savings to the RA at any time, up to the revised (Enhanced Retirement Sum), to earn higher interest and to receive higher retirement payouts,” said Mr Wong.

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Hamas-Israel war rages on, unabated despite Biden – Asia Times

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Last month, Hamas ambushers fired a rocket-propelled grenade into a Gaza Strip residential building where Israeli soldiers were laying explosives to blow up the place later. The RPG round detonated the explosives prematurely, brought the building down and killed 21 Israeli troops.

It was the largest one-day loss of life among Israeli troops so far in the four-month war. Beyond that, it highlighted the reality that rival forces are fighting hard even while American diplomats are busily trying to arrange a ceasefire and organize post-war peace talks.

Israel is dedicated to maintaining control of Gaza for the foreseeable future. Its forces are clearing a buffer zone inside the Gaza Strip border to put as much distance as possible between them and Hamas, which triggered the current combat by breaching the border fence between Israel and the territory.

The government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also plans to station soldiers in the enclave after war’s end while setting up a cooperative government of Palestinians, aided by some sort of new international agency to supply food, fuel and other day-to-day necessities to civilians.

Hamas, while still fighting, is focusing on a more distant and perhaps limited scenario: to remain a player in a post-war period when United States-sponsored peace talks might take place. With its military control reduced in the face of Israel’s military onslaught, Hamas decided to respond to a US call for ways to ease the conflict in the short run and end it forever in the long run. 

Hamas leaders provided mediators with a proposal for a ceasefire to last more than four months – time to facilitate an exchange of captives with Israel. It also demanded that Israel withdraw its forces from Gaza. In addition, Hamas has approached the Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the West Bank, to form a unified Palestinian government as their side’s participant in proposed long-range peace talks.

US President Joe Biden, eager for some kind of breakthrough, rejected the Israeli plan to effectively occupy Gaza. He termed the Hamas response “over the top.” However, he did not criticize  Hamas’s alliance with the Palestinian Authority – in effect, did not reject the idea that Hamas might somehow survive the war as a partner in peace. That alone represented a policy reversal for Biden. At the war’s start, Biden fulsomely endorsed Israel’s effort to destroy Hamas altogether.

Biden and Netanyahu early in the war. Photo: Screengrab / YouTube / ABC-TV

The incompatible goals of the warring contestants help explain why American-led negotiations to end the war are foundering. For Hamas, the issue is not only salvaging political influence but ensuring the physical survival of its leadership, which Israel has pledged to capture or kill.

For Netanyahu, political survival is also at stake. He is already being faulted for having underestimated Hamas’ military abilities. Agreeing to accept Hamas’s post-war survival would certainly end his time in power. 

Biden has his own political needs, and trying to please both sides, Israeli and the Palestinian, gets in the way. At home, he is under fire from pro-Palestinian groups for backing Israel and from pro-Israeli constituents for trying to restrain Israel’s war tactics and influence post-war strategy. He would like to woo voters from each side to supports his reelection to the presidency this November.

In the meantime, it is being left to Arab countries, notably Egypt and Qatar, to corral the Palestinians into peace efforts.

The Americans are left to exercise influence on Israel, but Netanyahu seems unfazed by the prospect of resisting US pressure. 

Rather than entertain Biden’s concerns over the deaths of thousands of civilians in Gaza, Netanyahu has simply pocketed Washington’s verbal support and aid without softening his hardline policies. At one point, he informed Biden that Israel was a “sovereign country” that no one could order around.

Last weekend, Biden requested that Netanyahu not invade Rafah, a city at the Egyptian border that is hosting displaced Palestinians, without first producing “a credible and executable plan for ensuring the safety of and support for the more than one million people sheltering there.”

Netanyahu responded by asking military officials to come up with a plan and by stepping up aerial bombing of Rafah. 

Rather than taking Netanyahu to task publicly, Biden had anonymous White House surrogates express his frustration to a television network. The unnamed officials told the NBC-TV news that the President has been “venting his frustration” about his inability to influence Netanyahu, whom he referred to in insulting and vulgar language.

Netanyahu responded Tuesday by pulling out of US-mediated ceasefire negotiations in Cairo. “Israel did not receive in Cairo any new proposal from Hamas on the release of our hostages,” Netanyahu’s office announced. “A change in Hamas’s positions will allow the negotiations to advance,” it said, adding that the prime minister “will not give in to Hamas’s delusional demands.” 

Netanyahu has long rejected Biden’s preferred option for future Israeli-Palestinian peace. Known as the two-state solution, it proposes to provide for Palestinian sovereignty in both the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Early in the war, Biden prolaimed that, “when this crisis is over, there has to be a vision of what comes next. In our view, it has to be a two-state solution.” 

The two-state solution refers to a formula pushed by the US in the early 1990s. It was meant to create a Palestinian state. The plan disintegrated over time in the face of periodic Palestinian revolts that included terror attacks and the gradual entry of some 450,000 Israeli settlers into the West Bank. The process was especially encouraged by Netanyahu during his off-and-on terms as prime minister spanning fourteen years. 

Israel dismantled its 21 settlements in Gaza in 2005, but maintained control of air and sea access as well as sharing with Egypt control of land routes into the territory. 

Unable to persuade Netanyahu to agree to immediate and long-term Gaza solutions, Biden has started to signal his displeasure by applying indirect, related pressure on Netanyahu. He recently ordered the State Department to investigate whether Israel’s bombing of Gaza had used American-supplied weapons on civilian targets. Biden also placed economic sanctions on a small group of violent West Bank settlers.

Critics of Biden’s diplomacy regard such discrete moves as insufficient. Biden’s “harsh words for Netanyahu, if he even really said them, are nothing more than words,” Tariq Kenney-Shawa, a research fellow at Al-Shabaka, a Palestinian think tank, said in a television interview.

“At the end of the day, the only thing that matters is policy, and Biden’s policy has been unconditional support of Israel every step of the way,” Kenney-Shawa told the Al Jazeera TV news network.

“It’s all well and good for the president to say he’s concerned and wants things to happent,” remarked Matt Duss, executive vice president for the Center for International Policy, a research group in Washington, DC. “The actual policy is still unconditional support, and we’ve seen the results of that.”

The Netanyahu government seems unfazed by Biden’s subtle messaging or any other criticism. Michael Herzog, its ambassador to the US, told the Kan, an Israeli public broadcaster, that disputes with Washington has not reached an “historic level of tensions or some sort of crisis.”

He said Biden “maintains a critical dialogue with us that has quite a few questions about how we are conducting the war and the direction in which we are taking it. I do not foresee an end of aid. I don’t expect the US to try to force a ceasefire on us in Gaza.”

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Kiev needs new strategy, not just a military reshuffle – Asia Times

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The recent replacement of Valeriy Zaluzhnyi as commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces may have put a temporary end to the increasingly public disagreements between the very popular “iron general” and the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky.

But it has not answered the fundamental question of what a winning – or even surviving – strategy in the war with Russia could look like as it moves into its third year.

Several dynamics have come together that are deeper and more complex than just a major reshuffle of the military leadership. The bigger picture that will shape the future of the war – and with it the future of Ukraine and the European and international security order – comprises four main factors. These need to be analyzed together to understand the present, and – most importantly – the future predicaments of Ukraine and its Western partners.

First, the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023 and the increasing pressure that Russia has put on Ukraine’s frontlines and hinterland put into serious question the ability of Kiev to win. This is especially the case if victory for Ukraine means forcing Russia’s complete withdrawal from all territory occupied since 2014.

The impending fall of Avdiivka, a town about 20 kilometers to the west of Donetsk in the east of Ukraine, suggests that Kiev ultimately has a weaker hand to play in a battle of attrition when confronted by a ruthless adversary with greater resources.

Map of the battlefront in eastern Ukraine showing heavy fighting along a long frontline.
There is heavy fighting around the town of Avdiivka which is expected to fall to Russian forces in the next few days. Institute for the Study of War

Much like the loss of Bakhmut in May 2023, or Soledar in January 2023, this was a symbolic rather than strategic defeat for Ukraine. It also represents, at best, pyrrhic victories for Russia – as in the case of Bakhmut.

But taken together, and seen in the context of the failed 2023 counteroffensive, these were not just symbolic defeats. They marked a real and extremely wasteful loss of financial resources, manpower and military equipment.

Zelensky’s dismissal of Zaluzhny puts the blame for last year’s disappointed hopes clearly on the latter. It also indicates, more worryingly, a lack of learning the lessons of these setbacks on the part of the Ukrainian president.

The fact that the new commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, is associated with several of these costly defeats – notably Bakhmut – does not bode well for the necessary change in Ukrainian strategy.

To his credit, Syrsky also masterminded the defense of Kiev in the early days of the war in 2022 and the successful counteroffensive the following summer which saw Ukraine recapture significant territory first around Kharkiv in the north and then Kherson in the south.

Notably, these successes happened before Russia embarked on the first of several mobilizations and shifted its economy to a war footing.

Faltering international support

The second key factor to keep in mind is that Ukraine’s battlefield successes in 2022 occurred at a time when Western support for Ukraine was in full swing. Those days are long gone. This has been evident in the protracted battles in the US Congress over sending more military aid to Ukraine.

The comments by former president – and 2024 Republic nominee-apparent – Donald Trump on his lack of commitment to NATO should he be reelected in November are equally worrisome.

Former US president Donald Trump. Photo: Wikimedia Commons

Despite some detractors, the EU remains committed to support for Ukraine. This became clear following the recent agreement on a new 50 billion euro (US$53.8 billion) funding package for Ukraine through 2027.

But this will barely cover Ukraine’s budget deficit, let alone make up for a potentially significant drop in US military aid. Combined with Ukraine’s own shrinking domestic capabilities to mobilize further resources, the war will have to be fought in far more difficult conditions than in the first two years.

War fatigue

Meanwhile, Ukrainian society is increasingly suffering from war fatigue. Military setbacks, economic decline, deteriorating living conditions, corruption and the scale of the loss of lives – among troops and civilians alike – make sustaining the war effort at present levels more difficult as well. Especially if the goal remains retaking all the land that Russia has occupied since 2014.

The amended law on mobilization, intended to underpin this strategy, was adopted in the Ukrainian parliament on February 6. Its provisions, including lowering the conscription age from 27 to 25 years, mandatory digital certificates and electronic prescription notifications, and stricter penalties for evading military service, are further evidence of the waning enthusiasm in Ukrainian society for the war effort.

Together with yet another 90-day extension of martial law and several financial measures designed to tighten the government’s control over the economy, the more draconian provisions in the new mobilization law also heighten the sense of uncertainty over Ukraine’s political direction.

Zelensky’s presidential term comes to an end in May 2024 and new parliamentary elections would normally be due in the autumn. While it is generally agreed that elections are close to impossible at present, both the president’s and parliament’s legitimacy after the expiry of their constitutional terms will be open to question.

This will ultimately be an issue for the constitutional court to resolve. But it has not stopped political forces within Ukraine opposed to Zelensky and his Servant of the People political party from piling pressure on the president to agree to a government of national unity.

Given the lack of popularity of this opposition, associated primarily with former president Petro Poroshenko – who Zelensky defeated in a landslide election in 2019 – this is hardly driven by popular demand. But it nonetheless signals further political turmoil at a time when Ukraine needs unity.

It is not clear whether Zelensky’s dismissal of Zaluzhny will strengthen or weaken any political opposition. In the short term, it is likely to benefit Zelensky whose popularity still dwarfs that of Poroshenko. Yet, because replacing Zaluzhny has not come with a signal that Ukraine’s war strategy will fundamentally change, this is a very risky move on the part of Zelensky.

Maintaining the current direction asks Ukrainians for yet more sacrifices. What Zelensky is offering in return depends on a range of at best highly uncertain returns that depend on many factors beyond the Ukrainian president’s control.

Stefan Wolff is Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham and Tetyana Malyarenko is Professor of International Relations, Jean Monnet Professor of European Security, National University Odesa Law Academy

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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