China, Russia subs surface in unison while keeping a distance – Asia Times

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China and Russia are flaunting their respective underwater skills in the Pacific while territorial disputes roil the South China Sea, the South China Sea, and a potential Taiwan combat beckons.

This month, Naval News reported that a new image of China’s Type 09IIIB nuclear-powered attack submarine ( SSN) has surfaced on Chinese social media, revealing more details about the advanced vessel. Naval News says the pictures, taken&nbsp, from a southern area, shows a refined style that improves on earlier variants.

The Type 09IIIB, produced at the Bohai shipyard in Huludao, features a vertical launch system (VLS ) and a pump-jet propulsor. The factory has the capacity to produce two to three SSNs yearly, making the submarine a part of China’s wider effort to modernize its navy.

Since 2022, the factory has launched three to six Model 09IIIBs, based on satellite imagery. In the forthcoming years, China’s Type 09IIIB submarine may be replaced by the next-generation Type 09V SSN, according to Naval News, underscoring China’s commitment to enhancing its underground war functions in the midst of rising regional conflicts.

At the same time, Naval News reported this month that Russia’s Admiralty Shipyards in Saint Petersburg launched the” Yakutsk”, the sixth and final Project 636.3 diesel-electric underwater for Russia’s Pacific Fleet. The vehicle, part of the Superior Kilo II course, is 90 % finish and will have factory trials before its first ocean voyage by year-end.

The Project 636.3 boats, known for their innovative methods and Kalibr-PL weapon features, are a current incarnation of the Soviet-era Project 877 Paltus. Naval News notes that the” Yakutsk” will meet the 19th Submarine Brigade, enhancing Russia’s naval power in the Far East.

The next shipment of six boats contracted in 2016 is now complete with this release. The Naval News report also makes a point about how significant these ships are to Russian naval activities, including their employ in Ukraine’s ongoing issue.

The continuous advancements of Chinese and Russian submarine technology are tactical moves to challenge US naval dominance in critical areas as well as displays of their particular naval modernization.

Edward Feltham mentions energy forecast and ocean power in a report for the Naval Association of Canada’s issue of an&nbsp, October 2023 issue.

Feltham notes that the People’s Liberation Army Navy ( PLAN ) has built its strategy around advanced submarines, including SSNs, conventional diesel-electric submarines ( SSKs ), and nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines ( SSBNs ).

He claims that SSKs are used to control the waters around Taiwan, SSNs protect sea pathways and expand China’s reach into the Indian Ocean, and SSBNs provide second-strike nuclear capability, giving China flexibility when defending its territorial claims and projecting strength beyond its local waters.

As for Russia’s underwater strategy in the Pacific, Nicholas Compton mentions in his March 2021 doctoral thesis that Russia’s underwater fleet plays a key role in its Pacific strategy, mainly through proper posturing.

The Russian Navy has reportedly switched from the Soviet-era submarine fleet to more technologically advanced nuclear-powered submarines, such as the Borei SSBN and Yasen nuclear cruise missile submarine ( SSGN ) classes. In the Pacific, these boats perform a number of functions, including nuclear deterrent and energy forecast.

He claims that Russia intends to create a strong naval presence in the Pacific and Arctic parts by using modern ships to proclaim power over disputed areas and protect its interests, particularly in the resource-rich Arctic.

Moreover, he mentions Russia’s rely on hybrid war, which includes the potential use of submarines to destroy or touch undersea cables, demonstrating their versatility in conventional and unconventional operations.

China and Russia’s shared focus on the importance of superior standard and nuclear-powered submarines&nbsp, for their marine strategies in the Pacific suggests a potential for participation in underwater design, strategy and tactics.

In October 2023, China and Russia announced their partnership to create the Type 096 SSBN, a next-generation vessel, to strengthen China’s strategic ties with the US and its Pacific allies. This collaboration makes use of Russian expertise to enhance China’s stealth and operational viability of its submarines.

Russia’s proficiency in hybrid warfare, which includes using submarines to disrupt undersea infrastructure, could benefit China as it extends its influence into the Indian Ocean and beyond. China would have a strategic advantage if it had the capability to conduct unconventional naval operations.

Both nations have interests in enraging strategic maritime areas, including Russia’s Arctic and China’s Taiwan Strait. Their submarine fleets help them prevent adversaries from entering these disputed areas, while collaborative drills strengthen their capabilities to operate in these areas and extend their reach beyond their waters.

China and Russia are treading carefully due to underlying tensions over strategic autonomy and technology transfer, which prevent them from fully committing to a formal alliance despite their expanding naval cooperation.

In a June 2022 article for Trends Research &amp, Advisory, Ash Rossiter mentions that Russia is concerned about China reverse-engineering its military equipment. Russia is unsure whether China can copy its technology, undermining its arms sales, or potentially surpassing it, according to Rosenstein.

For instance, he mentions that China’s Yuan-class submarine, which was sold to Pakistan, undoubtedly had elements from Russia’s Kilo-class submarine.

He points out that this dynamic complicates China and Russia’s strategic partnership because Russia must balance the advantages of cooperation with the potential long-term drawbacks of empowering a technologically advanced China.

In a report from the China Aerospace Studies Institute ( CASI) in October 2022, Elizabeth Wishnick mentions that Chinese and Russian officials have shied away from a full-fledged alliance because they are concerned about the restrictions that a relationship might place on their strategic autonomy.

Wishnick claims that the disparate viewpoints on the benefits of a formal alliance are reinforced by this ambiguity. She points out that China emphasizes “partnerships rather than alliances” in its official documents. While Russia echoes this sentiment, Wishnick notes, it has occasionally hinted at the possibility of deeper cooperation.

She argues that China and Russia’s strategic collaboration is dynamic but cautious, with no intention to form an official alliance to protect each country’s strategic autonomy.

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Smart money’s looking beyond China stimulus debate – Asia Times

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Businesses are resonating as a result of tension between President Xi Jinping’s long-term policy objectives and investor demand for short-term signal as Chinese securities recover.

The fight between the long and short viewpoints is not novel. For years, the” Washington Consensus” group has advised Beijing to adjust its unstable economy, which free market activists see as very reliant on giant, opaque state-owned companies and the vast incentives that sustain them.

However, restless investors who appear increasingly unwilling to give Beijing the room it needs to re-enter and overhaul its US$ 17 trillion market have frequently clashed with Xi’s work to do just that.

Until then, apparently. The conflict between Team Xi and anxious industry was clearly visible over the weekend.

Unplanned press conference by Xi’s Ministry of Finance ( MOF ) on Saturday ( 12 October ) sparked a frenzy with markets anticipating a potential significant new stimulus boost to help China reach its 20 % economic growth target for 2024 and new measures to combat the country’s increasingly ingrained deflation.

Futures markets sagged when MOF focused on larger transformation designs and declined to provide a certain amount label on the hung signal. But by Monday, companies rose.

Investors came to the conclusion that the MOF’s most recent statements reflect the pragmatism markets have long-craved from Xi’s inner circle, even if Beijing is n’t using its massive stimulus “bazooka.”

The trip news, according to economist Harry Murphy Cruise at Moody’s Analytics, “tied most of the appropriate boxes, but it lacked information on the size and range of new spending,” noting that” we anticipate more supports to be announced through the remainder of the year.”

Economist Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, says,” these policies are in the right direction”.

There is still a strong argument that Chinese stock valuations are now fairly valued despite the recent rally, which was buoyant from the US$ 6.5 trillion rout dating back to 2021. In addition, Chinese shares are currently trading at significantly lower multiples than those in the US, where new market highs are being made daily.

The MOF press conference was still a surprise to us, according to economist Jing Liu from HSBC Holdings, despite the lack of significant fiscal stimulus. ” The policy pivot looks very much here to stay, with the rising risk appetite having a significant impact on both the stock and property markets.”

Odds are, though, that this is a trust-but-verify moment for markets. Bullish investors are partially reacting to Beijing’s hints of further support for the troubled housing market and highly indebted local governments with new, targeted fiscal-spending jolts.

More and more stimulus is becoming more popular. In September, Chinese exports and imports came in weaker than expected, raising new doubts about the economy’s main bright spot. Overseas shipments, for example, rose just 2.4 % year on year, a sharp fall from August’s 8.7 % increase.

According to Capital Economics ‘ economist Zichun Huang, “further ahead… growing trade barriers are likely to become an increasing constraint” on export and economic growth.

Although the move from Washington to Seoul may cause more demand to be made in some of China’s key trading partners, according to economists, political restrictions on products like electric cars and other green technologies are causing new headwinds.

However, punters are beginning to realize that Xi’s inner circle is almost blatantly focused on bringing China into the so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution by accelerating the transition from the high-end to highly-value technology-driven industries.

Team Xi is more interested in the long-term benefits of tech-driven economic reinvention and future dominance of the industries. Although annual growth targets matter in the short run.

Investors are digging deeper into Chinese stock valuations in comparison to other top global markets and recognizing new value as a result of these caveats.

In the most recent Global Risk-Reward Monitor newsletter, Asia Times business editor David Goldman argues that with a price-earnings ( P/E ) ratio of 11, China’s stock market “is a bit too low”.

But at the same time, he notes,” there is no reason to expect Chinese valuations to approach the S&amp, P ( 500’s ) valuation of 22 times ( forward ) earnings”.

One reason, he argues, is that China’s government has gone out of its way to prevent and reverse the formation of market-skewing tech monopolies like Google, Microsoft or Amazon.

” No surprise, then, that Alibaba trades at a P/E of 27 after the run-up of the past month, versus Amazon’s 43″, Goldman writes. We have long argued that given subdued but consistent economic growth, China’s equity market valuation was too low. The Chinese market’s valuation seems more reasonable than that of the United States after the rally last month.

That’s not to say Beijing is n’t cognizant of the moment’s sensitivity. In a note to clients, economists at Morgan Stanley say this moment represents” Beijing’s second chance to convince the market” after a rough several days.

However, Xi may have found the balance between acting as a facilitator and a facilitator while also showing restraint.

According to Hui Shan, an economist at Goldman Sachs,” the most recent round of China stimulus clearly indicates that policymakers have turned to cyclical policy management and increased their focus on the economy.”

China will increase by 4.9 % this year, according to the US investment bank, up from an earlier forecast of 4.7 %. For 2025, Goldman Sachs sees growth of 4.7 %, up from an earlier 4.3 % forecast.

One source of Goldman Sachs ‘ optimism: MOF officials plan to deploy 2.3 trillion yuan ($ 325 billion ) of special local government bond funds in the fourth quarter of this year.

This, Hui says, suggests a more “back-loaded” public spending plan, paving the way for a bigger rebound than his bank had previously expected.

Last week, China ‘s&nbsp, National Development and Reform Commission announced pre-approval of&nbsp, 200 billion yuan&nbsp, ($ 28.2 billion ) worth of 2025 investment projects. It is seen by Huawei’s team as a clear government effort to help China meet its 5 % GDP goal this year.

Carlos&nbsp, Casanova, economist at Union Bancaire Privée, notes that investors are taking solace in Finance Minister Lan Fo’an highlighting that officials have a “fairly large” capacity to increase spending if needed.

That includes “implementing some of the most ambitious measures in years aimed at revitalizing the struggling property market, recapitalizing large banks,” according to Casanova, “everyone of which is crucial for addressing China’s ongoing structural challenges.”

However, Casanova adds,” the timeline for fiscal measures remains uncertain. The upcoming National People’s Congress Standing Committee meeting, scheduled for late October or early November, may require significant announcements to wait until.

The MOF “has given as strong a signal as possible while waiting for the NPC approval,” according to economist Shirley Ze Yu of the London School of Economics.

Larry Hu, Macquarie Capital’s chief China economist, doubts that Xi’s policymakers will be too specific about dollar amounts.

” First, they do n’t need to come up with such a number for the NPC to approve”, Hu says. ” Second, it’s hard to come up with such a number, as the line between fiscal, monetary and industrial policies is often blurred in China”.

Hu adds that, given the global financial crisis, it would go against Xi’s deleveraging goals of supplying the economy with stimulus the way Beijing did in 2008 and 2009.

Investors will be keenly focused on Beijing’s implementation of structural reforms, according to Hui of Goldman Sachs. &nbsp,

” The’ 3D ‘ challenges – deteriorating demographics, a multi-year debt deleveraging trend and the global supply chain de-risking push — are unlikely to be reversed by the latest round of policy easing”, Hui argues.

However, Oxford University’s China Center economist George Magnus is concerned that Beijing may continue to implement outdated policies.

” A solution would involve the sustainable expansion of the income and consumer demand shares of the economy, an end to deflation risk, more income redistribution, the promotion of private enterprise, and extensive tax and local government reforms”, Magnus writes in an op-ed for The Guardian.

Magnus adds that” Xi’s more Leninist agenda emphasizes supply and production, and what he calls’ high-quality development,’ which is essentially about state- and party-led industrial policies to allocate capital to lead and dominate modern science, technology and innovation in the global system”.

” China already has and wants to expand advanced industrial expertise and leadership in some key firms and sectors,” according to Magnus. These technologically dominant islands are found in a sea of macroeconomic imbalances and issues that can only be actually addressed by more liberal and open economic reforms.

Bottom line: According to Magnus,” the current focus on economic policy is important not for some decimal points on GDP but as a signal whether the government can, or wants to grasp the nettle.”

Magnus is not the only one who is concerned that policy tinkering wo n’t be sufficient. China will become a more dynamic and competitive economy over the long term if only the government sector is reforming, the capital markets are deepened, and households are encouraged to save less and spend more.

On the other hand, half measures will likely leave China vulnerable to boom/bust cycles brought on by the imbalanced allocation of resources, weak debt, and misalignments between household income and spending.

Investors will want to bereassured that big-picture reforms are on the horizon with the upcoming NPC. For now, though, an increasing number of investors are already getting the memo on China’s grand plan.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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The dangers of China’s fervent cyber-nationalism

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BBC Image of a woman from a Chinese Cultural Revolution revolutionary poster in front of the Gate of Heavenly Peace in BeijingBBC

A 10-year-old child was approaching the walls of a Chinese class in Shenzhen, southern China, when a man came up and stabbed him.

He died of his injuries. The killing shocked Japan and China, and sparked a diplomatic furore.

The Chinese government claimed that it had been influenced by xenophobia, and the international secretary put the blame on “malicious and anti-Japanese” social media posts.

Online observers have noted the shooting happened on a politically sensitive day – 18 September, which is the celebration of an incident that led to the Chinese occupation of Manchuria in China in the early 1930s.

What transpired for some as a sign of virtual nationalism, which has been sprang up as rising anti-foreign rhetoric in recent years, transferring into the real world.

Articles about World War Two events have proliferated on the Chinese online for years, with the Chinese war enduring as a contentious subject for separatists on both sides. In China, Japan’s military atrocities have long been a tender point as Beijing maintains that Tokyo has not entirely apologised.

The online postings are a part of a larger trend that includes strikes on Chinese citizens for being anti-patriotic and xenophobia. Experts ‘ claims that this online nationalism has mostly been unchecked by the Chinese government, with on-line patriotism stoking anti-foreign mood as well as charges against Chinese officials as one explanation.

Getty Images The Chinese flag on a laptop screenGetty Images

Some people wonder if this has gone to far. The most recent in a line of efforts to ensure philosophical beauty has been dubbed the” Cultural Revolution 2.0″ by them as the online attacks that portray Chinese people as being anti-patriotic. They see echoes of the violent, state-sponsored campaign against so-called enemies of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP ) that traumatised the country in the 1960 and 1970s. In massacres carried out by young militias like the Red Guards, hundreds of thousands of people died. Neighborhoods and communities turned on one another.

In a recent article, author and university teacher Zhang Sheng noted that “in the past persons summoned the Red Guards, then persons summon the ‘ little pinks ‘” – a popular name for the virtual troops of online separatists.

anti-foreigner content

Some cyber-nationalists had a very unique take on the tragic death of the Chinese student on Taiwanese social media.

” I have no opinion on how Japanese die if they do n’t apologise for history”, read one popular comment on Weibo, while another pointed out that the Japanese had killed many Chinese during World War Two” and have n’t apologised till this day. How could they even come close to being referred to as” civilized”?

A Chinese official reportedly wrote texts in a private group chat informing members that it was okay to shoot a Chinese child and that it was against our laws to kill Chinese. He has since been placed under investigation, according to local media outlet Phoenix News.

Beijing heavily censoring discussion of the incident online and calling it an “accidental, individual case” and an “isolated incident” as Japanese officials demanded answers for the “despicable” crime.

This is the third highly public attack on foreigners in recent months, which China has described as “isolated incidents.”

In June, a Japanese mother and her son were attacked at a bus stop outside a Japanese school, and a Chinese woman died while trying to shield them. This happened just weeks after four US university tutors were stabbed in a park in Jilin. While the motives for both attacks were also unclear, they spurred anxious discussion that they were linked to xenophobic rhetoric online.

Online campaigns

Not just foreigners are facing the ire of cyber-nationalists. Chinese business and public figures have also been subject to criticism in recent months for being insufficiently patriotic.

Beverage giant Nongfu Spring is considered a Chinese business success story, with its mineral water bottles a ubiquitous sight across the country’s convenience stores and restaurant tables. Nationalists, however, attacked the business in March for using Japanese elements in its product design. The iconic mineral water bottle’s red cap was thought to be a reference to the Japanese flag, while one of its logos was said to resemble a Shinto temple.

It resulted in a brief but intense online campaign: some called for a boycott, while videos of people angrily stamping on Nongfu Spring bottles and chucking their drinks down the toilet were all over social media.

Getty Images A photo of the Japanese flag next to a photo of Nongfu Spring water bottlesGetty Images

In the same way, a nationalist blogger accused the author, who won the Nobel Prize for literature, of “beautifying” Japanese soldiers and writing insensitive poetry. The blogger later filed a controversial lawsuit against him for insulting China.

These actions have sparked a lot of concern. Hu Xijin, the former editor of state-run newspaper Global Times, warned that nationalistic attacks on creatives like Mo Yan could have a chilling effect.

And the outspoken liberal intellectual Yu Jianrong claimed that “dangerous populist tendencies, which deserve our utmost vigilance” were to blame for the recent stabbings of foreigners.

Even the state media has accused online nationalists of “making patriotism a business.” One commentary by CCP mouthpiece People’s Daily said those who” stir up public opinion and add fuel to the flames in order to… gain traffic and make personal gains, should be severely punished”.

Some claim that the ruling party contributed to the ignominy.

What fuels the fire, exactly?

” State-endorsed patriotism” and Beijing’s constant warnings about foreign influence has contributed to the “intense nationalism” we see today, says Rose Luqiu, an associate professor at Hong Kong Baptist University’s communication school. The legal risk of being deemed unpatriotic, she claims, has made things worse.

The Chinese government has now made the “distortion and smearing ] of ] heroes and martyrs” a crime, as demonstrated in the lawsuit against the author Mo Yan. It has also passed a sweeping anti-espionage law and launched a campaign encouraging the public to report suspicious activity by foreigners.

It has intensified efforts to foster patriotism in schools, where Chinese children are taught from a young age that they must love both their country and the CCP, to legitimize its rule.

Meanwhile, a global surge in Sinophobic sentiment during the Covid pandemic and growing suspicion of China in the West due to trade tensions has fed a sense among some Chinese that their country is being unfairly discriminated against by foreigners.

China’s slowing economy and a spreading social malaise have also played a role. “Many people in China are confronted with severe social and economic worries. Inflation, housing crises, youth unemployment, and evaporating pensions are all causing anxieties. Nationalism is a readily available and highly potent framework for venting those frustrations,” says Florian Schneider, an expert in online Chinese nationalism at Leiden University.

All these factors have resulted in nationalist bloggers becoming a prominent fixture of the Chinese internet in the last few years. Well-known influencers can amass millions of followers – and potentially earn income from the traffic – by pumping out patriotic content extolling the virtues of China and the CCP while denouncing their enemies.

While they often act in the name of revolutionary leftist fervour, their behaviour is actually more similar to the far right found in other countries who lead xenophobic and reactionary movements, Professor Schneider tells the BBC.

They “have hopes of returning society to some imagined former glory,” and they see all manner of elites and foreign powers as obstacles to this goal because they are “populists who are trying to make China great again.”

A delicate balance

Sometimes authorities appear to listen to concerns.

After a public outcry in July, they quietly dropped a contentious amendment to a national security law. They made it clear that a proposed ban on “hurting Chinese people’s feelings” could “violate the legitimate rights and the general life of the public.”

Chinese social media platforms have tried to rein in online nationalists by periodically suspending their accounts.

Sima Nan and Guyanmuchan, two well-known nationalist influencers, have been subjected to censorship without warning. The blogger who attempted to sue Mo Yan, whose lawsuit was also rejected by the courts, was also at odds with them.

One vlogger, who shot to notoriety this year after he posted a video accusing a shopping mall of putting up decorations that resembled the Japanese flag, was similarly shut down. His video was described as” a malicious report that rides on the online traffic of patriotism,” according to a scathing state media commentary.

Authorities still appear to have a tight grip on online nationalists.

While dissenters are swiftly shut down or in some cases arrested in the name of social stability, nationalist bloggers are allowed a freer rein, despite their sometimes inflammatory rhetoric. These voices have even been boosted by state media’s republishing of their content.

The BBC has contacted the Chinese government to ask why nationalist content does n’t appear to be censored as much as other sensitive content.

That could be down to the fact the state views online nationalism as a useful safety valve to “dissipate dissent in a way that does not undermine its authority”, particularly during its current economic troubles, where” society really needs an outlet to express frustration”, says Dr Luqiu.

The government “harnesses nationalism to its advantage, only intervening when it risks spilling over” into an uncontrollable situation by encouraging nationalists and then occasionally reining them in.

Beijing may seem risky, but it has successfully fended off significant obstacles to its authority in recent years, such as the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong in 2019 and the White Paper protests in 2022 against strict zero-Covid policies.

The government is thus confident it can manage the dangers, and it means nationalism is likely to stay despite the backlash, analysts say.

Nationalism is a mixed blessing for China’s leaders, and at the moment, Professor Schneider says,” We are witnessing the costs of that.”

” But will the leadership reevaluate or even give up its nationalism in favor of something less harmful?” I would n’t hold my breath”.

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Harris or Trump? What Chinese people want from US election

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BBC Two Chinese women in traditional dress, with stylised purple border dotted with four white starsBBC

People in China are concerned and eagerly watching the US vote. They worry that whoever wins the White House will have an effect on a number of aspects of daily life, both domestically and abroad.

As the park’s music reaches a chorus and a local dance gracefully spins his lover,” None of us wants to see a war,” says Mr. Xiang.

He has traveled to Ritan Park to study dancing with another seniors.

Just a few hundred meters from the American embassy in China’s residence in Beijing, they often gather around.

The upcoming US vote is also on their heads, along with fresh dance moves.

It comes at a key time between the two nations, with tensions over Taiwan, business and global interests running high.

” I am worried that Sino-US connections are getting tense”, says Mr Xiang who’s in his seventies. Harmony is what we want, he adds.

A group has gathered to listen to this talk. The majority of people in countries where it is acceptable to speak about the US senator are reluctant to give their full names, but being important of their own head was put them in trouble.

They claim to be concerned about war, not just a fight between Washington and Beijing but an increase of the Middle East and Ukraine.

That is why Mr Meng, in his 70s, hopes Donald Trump will win the vote.

He says,” He does not want to begin or fight a combat, despite imposing economic sanctions on China. Mr. Biden starts more war, making more and more people in the general like him. Mr. Biden is the one who backs Ukraine’s battle, and both Russia and Ukraine suffer significant losses as a result,” he said.

Some aunts who are making party routines for their social media pages chip in. One commentator claims that Donald Trump promised to end the conflict in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office.

” About Harris, I know much about her; we believe she goes the same way as President Biden, who supports battle,” he said.

Their viewpoints echoe a significant information being broadcast on Chinese state media.

Dancers in Ritan Park in front of a traditional Chinese pagoda

China has repeatedly urged the international community to reach a peace in Gaza while aligning itself with what it refers to as its” Muslim boys” in the Middle East. It has also been quick to blame the US for its unwavering support of Israel.

Regarding Ukraine, Wang Yi, the foreign secretary, claimed that China was “playing a productive part” when he accused Washington of “exploiting the scenario for selfish obtain.”

Some experts agree that Kamala Harris is a hidden gem to the Chinese individuals and the country’s officials despite the fact that the majority of researchers believe Beijing does not have a favorite candidate for the White House.

However, some think that when it comes to one of the biggest international disputes between China and the US, Taiwan, she will be more secure than Trump.

” I do n’t like Trump. I do n’t think there is a good future between the US and China– there are too many problems, the global economy, and also the Taiwan problem”, says a father of a four-year-old boy in the park for a family day out.

He fears that turmoil may develop as a result of their disagreements over Taiwan.

Boy wearing mask in Ritan Park

” I do n’t want it. I do n’t want my son to go to the military”, he says as the young boy pleads to go back on the slide.

Taiwan, the self-governing island that China claims to be its own, is a country that, according to President Xi, “reunification is inevitable” and pledges to reclaim it by force if necessary.

The US maintains established relations with Beijing and acknowledges it as the only Chinese state under its” One China plan,” but it also continues to be Taiwan’s most significant global admirer.

Joe Biden has stated that the US would defend Taiwan diplomatically, breaking with a position known as corporate confusion, and that Washington is required by law to provide Taiwan with defensive arms.

Harris has certainly made that much of a difference. Otherwise, when asked about it in a new meeting, she stated that she was committed to” security and prosperity for all countries.”

Donald Trump is rather focused on a offer- not politics. He has called on Taiwan to pay for its defense.

Taiwan stole our device company from us. I mean, how terrible are we? They’re exceedingly wealthy”, he said in a new interview. ” Taiwan should compensate us for military”.

Banner saying 'More on US election 2024'

One of their biggest concerns about the former US president is that he has also made it clear that he intends to establish 60 % tariffs on Chinese products.

Due to the country’s efforts to produce sufficient products to import itself out of an economic slump, this is the last thing many businesses in China want at the moment.

US-led business tariffs, which Donald Trump initially imposed, annoy Chinese ministers with disdain.

Additionally, President Biden has imposed tariffs on solar panel and Chinese-made electrical goods. Beijing believes that these actions are an attempt to slow down its fall as a worldwide economic power.

Getty Images Xi and Trump in Beijing in 2017, standing in front of flowers and pointingGetty Images

According to Mr. Xiang,” I do n’t think it will benefit China in any way by imposing tariffs on it,” which is in line with the sentiments of many of the people we met. The taxes will hit the US persons, he adds, and raise costs for regular people.

Many of the the younger generation, while patriotic, even look towards the US for trends and tradition- and that, perhaps more than any political vision, has power also.

In the garden, Lily and Anna, aged 20 and 22, who get their information from TikTok, echo some of the national information of delight spread by Chinese state advertising when it comes to this dynamic partnership.

” Our nation is a very profitable and powerful state”, they say, dressed in their national outfits. They love China, they said, although they also love the Avengers and especially Captain America.

Taylor Swift is also available on other people’s songs.

Woman working on food stall waving at someone off camera

People like 17-year-old Lucy promise to research in America one day.

She has a dream about going to Universal Studios one moment after graduating, and she cycles on an exercise bike that is freshly installed in the area.

Lucy claims she is enthralled to learn that there is a sexual member. ” Harris’s election marks an important step forward for female justice, and it’s encouraging to see her as a political candidate”.

There is never a adult leader in the People’s Republic of China, and there is not a single person on the 24-member Politburo, which includes the most top associates of the Chinese Communist Party.

Lucy worries about the severe competition between the two nations, and she thinks that having more people-to-people exchangesit would be the best way for China and the Uned States to strengthen their marriage.

Both parties have pledged to work toward this, but there are still only 800 US individuals studying in China, down from around 15, 000 in 2011.

Baby crawling through tunnel in park, with adult woman behind

In the next five years, Xi hopes to welcome 50 000 American pupils to China. However, Nicholas Burns, the US ambassador to China, claimed some parts of the Chinese government did n’t take this commitment really in a recent discussion with the BBC.

He claimed that dozens of times, Chinese people have been prevented from participating in US-run public politics by the security causes or a state government.

On the other hand, US border officials have reported unfair treatment of Taiwanese academics and students.

Lucy, however, remains positive that she will be able to travel to America one morning, to promote Chinese culture. And, as the songs strikes up outside, she urges Americans to explore and practice China.

As she heads off to visit her family, she says,” We may be a little reserved a little bit reserved and not as cheerful or optimist as US individuals, but we are welcoming.”

Xiqing Wang’s BBC photos

Divider featuring white stars on red and blue striped banner

BBC correspondents from different parts of the world will become researching how people are reacting to this White House race between now and the election on November 5.

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Small businesses, big challenges: The reality of China’s post-US Fed cut economy

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Additionally, analysts told CNA that the effect on small businesses would probably be generally direct and minimum. According to Mr. Bell,” I do n’t think Fed cuts will have much impact on Chinese consumers,” adding that” small businesses with a domestic focus are less impacted,” while citing low domestic confidence as a limiting factor. &nbsp,

” Frequently, small businesses and individuals are shielded from immediate effect by broader plan adjustments”, said American economic columnist Mr Daryl Guppy, even the CEO and founder of Guppytraders.com.

He noted that US economic policy may have a far greater impact on Chinese usage habits than US tariffs and punishment. &nbsp,

The main effect may be price changes for imported American items.

Next THE FED?

China’s central bank has implemented a number of smaller cuts, including a policy interest rate reduction of 0.2 % and a reduction of banks ‘ reserve requirements by half a percentage point, despite the Fed’s aggressive stance in cutting rates. &nbsp,

However, Mr. Guppy made it clear that the PBOC’s actions did not directly affect the US’s subsequent actions. &nbsp,

According to Mr. Guppy,” PBOC policy decisions are not made in a knee-jerk effect to US policy.” Lower rates often lead to a higher consumer and business confidence because they lower the cost of loans and paying off debt.

Experts believe Beijing’s factual response to the US Fed price cuts could also provide some much-needed information into its possible future actions.

According to Mr Bell, China generally “has had a very distinct economic policy platform than the Fed’s interest-rate focused strategy”.

” For much of the early 2000s, China pursued a dollar nail, and after that, a much more quantity-driven model focused on the quantity of credit rather than their cost”, Mr Bell told CNA. &nbsp,

He also explained that China was “more insulated”, because of its relatively” closed” investment account, at least until 2015, which helped it experience fewer spillovers from international financial situations. Companies and individuals are prohibited from moving money into and out of the country under strict regulations in a sealed capital account.

China focused on a lot of fiscal and credit stimulus when extreme crises struck and threatened to spread through the trade channel.

Some believe that Chinese politicians should concentrate on resolving these internal problems, such as revitalizing the faltering business, which may call for a more subtle approach this time around.

” China’s emotions are tempered by the demands of the local economy and policy information”, he said. ” US Fed rates movements are a factor that may make it easier, or more difficult, ( for China ) to continue with an appropriate domestic policy”, said Mr Guppy.

Although Mr. Bell believes that China” should not be in a location where Fed moves matter little,” he also acknowledges that “any global circumstances,” including Fed rate policy, had have” a more important impact on the Foreign economy.”

” But that is not a given, many more a representation of lacking plan activities in Beijing”, Mr Bell added. &nbsp,

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Starbucks, Tetley, Jaguar Land Rover: Remembering Ratan Tata’s global ambitions

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Getty Images Ratan Tata, chairman emeritus of Tata Sons, speaks during a session advising Singapore startups in Singapore, on Tuesday, March 29, 2016. Tata stepped down as the chairman of the $100 billion Tata Group in 2012.Getty Images

Ratan Tata, the billionaire and former chairman of Tata Group, who passed away at the age of 86, played a significant role in the modernization and globalization of one of India’s oldest company buildings.

His ability to take strong, daring business risks served as the foundation of the salt-to-steel conglomerate, which his forefathers founded 155 years previously, despite India’s liberalization of its economy in the 1990s.

At the turn of the millennium, Tata executed the biggest cross-border merger in American business record- getting Tetley Tea, the country’s second largest maker of teabags. The little Tata party firm that had purchased the classic British brand was three times the size of it.

His party swallowed up big American business giants like the shipbuilder Corus and the luxury car manufacturer Jaguar Land Rover as his ambitions grew just bigger in the years that followed.

Although the acquisitions were n’t always successful, Corus was purchased just before the 2007 global financial crisis, which hampered Tata Steel’s performance for years.

They also had a great symbolic impact, says Mircea Raianu, writer and creator of Tata: The Global Corporation That Built Indian Capitalism. He goes on to say that they “represented the kingdom striking up” when a company from a former colony seized the motherland’s prized possessions, reversing the sneering approach American businessmen had toward the Tata Group a decade before.

Getty Images The blast furnaces, that are scheduled to be closed, at the Port Talbot Steelworks, operated by Tata Steel Ltd., beyond the River Afan in Port Talbot, UK, on Tuesday, June 25, 2024. Getty Images

International interests

The Tata Group’s view had been “outward-oriented” from the very end, according to Andrea Goldstein, an analyst who published a study in 2008 on the internationalisation of American companies, with a special emphasis on Tata.

As early as in the 1950s, Tata companies operated with foreign partners.

But Ratan Tata was keen to “internationalise in giant strides, not in token, incremental steps”, Ms Goldstein pointed out.

According to Mr. Raianu, his unconventional education in architecture and a ringside view of his family group companies may have contributed to how he considered expanding. But it was the” structural transformation of the group” he steered, that allowed him to execute his vision for a global footprint.

Tata had to fight an extraordinary corporate feud when he assumed the position of chairman of Tata Sons in 1991, which happened to coincide with India’s decision to open up its economy.

By opening the door to a number of” satraps” ( a Persian term for an imperial governor ) at Tata Steel, Tata Motors, and the Taj Group of Hotels, which operated with little corporate oversight from the holding company, he began centralizing increasingly decentralized, domestic-focused operations.

By doing this, he prevented the Tata Group, which had been shielded from foreign competition, from fading into irrelevance as India opened up, as well as enabling him to surround himself with people who could assist him in carrying out his global vision.

He appointed foreigners, non-resident Indians, and executives with connections and networks throughout the management team at both Tata Sons, the holding company, and individual groups within it.

He established the Group Corporate Center ( GCC ) to provide group companies with strategic direction. It provided” M&amp, A]mergers and acquisitions ] advisory support, helped the group companies to mobilise capital and assessed whether the target company would fit into the Tata’s values”, researchers at the Indian Institute of Management in Bangalore wrote in a 2016 paper.

The GCC also provided funding for Tata Motors ‘ well-known acquisitions, including Jaguar Land Rover, which had a significant impact on how the world saw a business that was essentially a tractor manufacturer.

The JLR takeover was widely regarded as “revengeance” on Ford, which mocked Tata Motors in the early 1990s and then received a beating on the deal by Tata Motors. Together, these acquisitions suggested that Indian corporations were “arrived” on the global stage as economic growth rates increased and liberalization reforms were taking off, according to Mr. Raianu.

The$ 12 billion group currently has operations in 100 different nations, with non-Indians making a sizable portion of its total revenues.

Getty Images Tata Sons Chairman - Ratan Tata poses alongside the Tata Nano at its launch in Mumbai on Monday.Getty Images

The misses

While the Tata Group made significant strides overseas in the early 2000s, domestically the failure of the Tata Nano – launched and marketed as the world’s cheapest car – was a setback for Tata.

This was his most ambitious project, but he had clearly misread India’s consumer market this time.

Brand experts claim that an aspirational India did n’t want to associate with the affordable car tag. And Tata himself eventually admitted that the “poor man’s car” tag was a” stigma” that needed to be undone.

He thought that his company might be able to revive its product, but the Tata Nano was eventually discontinued after sales dropped year over year.

The Tata Group’s succession became a contentious topic as well.

Mr Tata remained far too involved in running the conglomerate after his retirement in 2012, through the “backdoor” of the Tata Trust which owns two-thirds of the stock holding of Tata Sons, the holding company, say experts.

Ratan Tata’s involvement in the succession dispute with [Cyrus ] Mistry undoubtedly tarnished the reputation of the group, according to Mr. Rainu, without blaming him for it.

Following a boardroom coup that sparked a long-running legal battle that the Tatas eventually won, Mistry, who died in a car crash in 2022, was ousted as chairman of Tata in 2016.

Getty Images Ratan Tata, Chairman Tata Group, at Jaguar Pavilion during 11th Auto Expo held at Pragati Maidan on January 5, 2012 in New Delhi, India. Tata Motors-owned Jaguar showcased two new models, C-X16 and C-X75 here at Auto Expo 2012.Getty Images

A lasting legacy

Tata left his vast empire in a much stronger position both domestically and internationally in spite of the numerous missteps he took in 2012, leaving it much more financially stable.

Along with making significant acquisitions, his effort to modernize the company with a sharp focus on IT has been successful over the years.

When many of his big bets went sour, one high-performing firm, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), along with JLR carried the “dead weight of other ailing companies”, Mr Raianu says.

TCS is today India’s largest IT services company and the cash cow of the Tata Group, contributing to three-quarters of its revenue.

Around 69 years after the government took control of the airline, the Tata Group also brought back India’s flagship carrier Air India in 2022. Given how expensive it is to operate an airline, Ratan Tata, a trained pilot himself, was a dream come true.

However, the Tatas appear to be more in a position to place significant bets on everything from semiconductor manufacturing to airlines.

Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, it appears that India has clearly adopted a “national champions” policy, which requires a few large conglomerates to be built up and promoted in order to achieve rapid economic growth that spans priority sectors.

The odds are clearly stacked in favor of the Tata Group from this, along with younger industrial groups like Adani.

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Vietnam imitating China’s island-making in South China Sea – Asia Times

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Vietnam has slowly increased its military presence in the South China Sea, putting its territorial claims in line with China’s island-building strategies in the hotly contested sea area.

The disputed Spratly Islands have recently experienced high-resolution satellite imagery that shows a tenfold increase in artificial land in the area over the past three years, according to the&nbsp, Wall Street Journal ( WSJ).

The WSJ report mentions the potential growth of Vietnam through the development of planes, protective tunnels, and holds for martial use. It points out that Vietnam’s actions are in line with China’s, which has recently constructed artificial islands with runways, study towers, and other military installations to assert its position of dominance in the area.

WSJ notes that while China has violently enforced its statements against the Philippines, it has not yet responded to Vietnam’s actions.

The&nbsp, Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative ( AMTI ) noted in June 2024 that since November 2023, Vietnam has added 692 new acres across ten features, bringing its total dredging and landfill in the South China Sea to approximately 2, 360 acres – about half of China’s 4, 650 acres. This sudden expansion, according to AMTI, is a major improvement over the previous three years when Vietnam’s full was only 329 acres.

In a statement from September 2024, John Pollock and Damien Symon claim that Vietnam’s actions are motivated by a needed to strengthen its proper place in the wake of continuous territorial disputes with China and other plaintiff states.

Pollock and Damien stage out that Vietnam’s expanded troops could number long-range martial aircraft, indicating a distinct military purpose. They mention that China has remained somewhat silent on Vietnam’s present reclamation activities, perhaps due to intellectual alignments with the latter’s fresh leadership.

They even say that China’s proper solitude over Vietnam’s restoration activities may reveal Beijing’s focus on its conflict with the Philippines over the&nbsp, Next Thomas Shoal.

In a December 2023 report for the Center for Strategic and International Studies ( CSIS), Monica Sato and other authors mention that cutter suction dredging involves slicing into coral reefs and pumping sediment to create landfills.

Sato and others point out that the technique, used extensively by China since 2013 to create synthetic islands, devastates the bottom, creating material clouds that strangle marine life and inhibit coral regeneration. They mention that unlike conventional polycarbonate dredgers, which cause less collateral damage, cutting pressure dredgers inflict widespread death, removing vital coral structures&nbsp, and&nbsp, altering the marine ecosystem.

Vietnam’s defense buildup significantly raises the stakes in its territorial disputes with China in addition to its accelerated area restoration in the South China Sea.

In a January 2018 essay in the peer-reviewed Asia Policy book, Derek Grossman said Vietnam has focused on modernizing its defense, especially its naval and air troops, to deter China from more intruding on its territory.

He says that Vietnam’s defense acquisitions, such as Russian Kilo-class submarines and Su-30MK2 fighter jets, alongside a system of anti-ship and surface-to-air missiles, improve Vietnam’s defensive capabilities, especially in anti-access/area neglect operations, making it costly for China to participate in any military conflict.

While China’s muted response to Vietnam’s actions may owe to Beijing’s focus on the US in the Philippines, Vietnam’s military limitations may also have contributed to Beijing’s stance.

In military terms, Grossman points out that Vietnam’s military still faces limitations regarding joint training, doctrine development and maritime domain awareness.

In a July 2021 report for the Singapore-based ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, Nguyen Phuong points out that Vietnam’s military modernization has slowed significantly since 2016.

Nguyen points out that having limited resources is a significant challenge because they are used for other national priorities like infrastructure and healthcare. He also makes note of the Vietnam People’s Army’s (VPA ) emphasis on political and propaganda over military action, which also impedes modernization efforts.

Nguyen also points out that the anti-corruption campaign spearheaded by former and recently deceased Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong has harmed military procurement by dismantling corrupt networks within the VPA, potentially affecting Vietnam’s ability to counterbalance China’s growing military influence.

In contrast to China’s aggressive behavior toward the Philippines, Vietnam’s approach to handling its territorial claims in the South China Sea may play a role.

Nguyen claims in a May 2024 article for the National Bureau of Asian Research ( NBR ) that Vietnam’s strategy for resolving tensions with China has been tactful and pragmatic, a balancing act between assertiveness and compromise.

Nguyen claims that Vietnam has historically preferred to treat China with submissiveness because of internal conservative influences, but it has increasingly sought support from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ( ASEAN ) and the US to back down against China’s assertiveness when necessary.

Despite those moves, he says that Vietnam’s strategy remains cautious, avoiding escalatory legal actions or overt alignments with major powers.

Nguyen contends that China views Vietnam as a pragmatic adversary, putting territorial interests before socialist solidarity, recognizing the need for a cooperative relationship.

He points out that China has employed a mix of coercive tactics, including gray-zone actions, to test Vietnam’s resolve while recalibrating its approach when Vietnam shows signs of defiance, fearing Vietnam’s potential pivot to the West and US.

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PM urges Asean to unite for peace

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Paetongtarn advises users not to become intermediaries for any energy, proposes Myanmar speech

Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinwatra attends the Asean Summit in Vientiane on Wednesday. (Photo: Royal Thai Government)
Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinwatra attends the Asean Summit in Vientiane on Wednesday. ( Photo: Royal Thai Government )

Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has urged the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ( Asean ) not to allow the region to become embroiled in geopolitical issues threatening its security.

“Asean can maintain peace and stability only through constructive cooperation, ” she said during her address to the 44th Asean Summit on Wednesday in Vientiane.

“Towards that conclusion, Thailand did play its part as an active promoter of peace and frequent growth to reach a conducive environment for growth. ”

Ms Paetongtarn said additional factors are extremely shaping Asean protection. Competition among key capabilities and rising tensions international have led to believe shortfalls and weakened internationalism and regionalism, she said.

Member says, she said, must be steadfast in strengthening the Asian community and prevent becoming a surrogate for any energy.

She said shared management in advancing provincial interests is vital in reinforcing Asean importance and making Asean-led frameworks related for meaningful engagement with outside partners

This needs to be done, she said, by fostering inclusive speech and teamwork under the Asean Outlook on the Indo-Pacific.

She pledged that Thailand may work closely with all Asean part states to support regional peace and stability and increase the region’s standing as a dependable world player.

“ While Asean does not take sides, member states must take a principled stand on issues affecting the region and people, ” she said.

Regarding conflicts in the South China Sea, she said Thailand urges all parties to practice self-restraint, avoid controversial steps, and participate positively to resolve problems calmly.

Thailand is committed to the early conclusion of an effective and substantive Code of Conduct in the South China Sea per international law. Ms Paetongtarn said that freedom of navigation and flights in and above the South China Sea must be ensured.

Thailand also shares global concerns about the situation in the Middle East, including the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. She said the kingdom supports all efforts towards a ceasefire, securing the unconditional release of all civilians, including Asean citizens, and unrestricted humanitarian access. The country remains firmly in support of a two-state solution, she added.

Ms Paetongtarn also expressed deep concern about the situation in Myanmar, which is a high priority for Thailand.

As a neighbour with a common border of 2,400 kilometres, Thailand has been affected by the conflict in Myanmar, which has resulted in an increase in displaced persons, illegal migration and disruption of trade and livelihoods of people. Other concerns include public health and transnational crime, especially narcotic drugs and online scams.

In this context, she said Thailand will work with all its friends in Asean and beyond to achieve a peaceful, stable, and unified Myanmar.

“Asean should send a unified message to all parties in Myanmar that there is no military solution. It is time to start talking. Thailand is ready to help, ” she said.

She also said it is vital for parties to find a political solution. Opening up more political space and dialogue between parties is vital as Myanmar moves forward with planned elections next year.

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The World Bank isn’t buying China’s stimulus talk – Asia Times

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To anyone who hopes 2025 will be a less terrible season for China’s economy, the World Bank has some bad news for you.

The international lender anticipates that Asia’s largest economy’s growth will decline also further next year, creating new headwinds for the region. This is in spite of Beijing’s current moves to boost economic growth in response to negative pressures and an initial global investor response that was at least initially passionate.

” Just signaled fiscal support may raise short-term progress, but longer-term development will depend on deeper structural measures”, the World Bank said on October 8. For three years, it said,” China’s expansion has spilled over advantageously to its companions, but the size of that motivation is today diminishing”.

The World Bank might be misinterpreting China’s efforts to resurrect its financial situation. It&nbsp, cut borrowing costs, slashed businesses ‘ supply need numbers, reduced loan rates and unveiled market-support resources to put a floor under share costs. In Beijing, stronger macroeconomic stimulus measures are also being considered.

If the world’s house crisis is allowed to enhance, furthering negative forces, some economists worry about a lighter course. The uncertainty issue is demonstrated by the extreme volatility in Chinese shares over the past ten days.

When the World Bank mentions the need for “deeper architectural changes,” plunging house prices are at the top of their record. Yet&nbsp, Chinese leader Xi Jinping appears to think period is on Beijing’s part in repairing the critical business. It might not be, as Japan has demonstrated over the years, &nbsp, some economists say.

China’s existing real estate troubles and Japan’s negative loan problems of the 1990s are n’t essentially analogous. The important resemblance is a critical driver of economic growth stalling out indefinitely, triggering bad knock-on implications in different industries.

In China’s situation, this likewise means municipal governments around the country. Provincial leaders have relied on area sales and tax revenues from sizable construction projects for many years.

” China’s boom-and-bust housing market is largely driven by local governments ‘ heavy reliance on expanding the real estate business to provide a major source of income”, said Tianlei Huang, an analyst at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington-based think tank.

Since 2022, Huang added,” the decline in the housing market has hurt native state funds and exposed a&nbsp, prone system&nbsp, in need of reform”.

It’s a portrait of what ails China. And still, Xi’s Communist Party continues to treat the signs of financial issues, not the underlying problems themselves. The longer they fester, the stronger the resulting headwinds.

Rather than the 4.8 % the World Bank sees China’s economy growing this year, it sees the nation expanding at just 4.3 % in 2025. Both readings are below Beijing’s current 5 % target.

Of course, for an economy at China’s level of development, 4.3 % is effectively recession territory. And if Xi’s team does n’t act boldly and expeditiously to revive growth, that figure could prove too optimistic.

One wildcard is the&nbsp, November 5&nbsp, US election. The upcoming trade wars would disproportionately hit China if Donald Trump were to win.

During his first presidency from 2027 to 2021, Trump imposed harsh tariffs on China. Xi’s government has n’t seen anything yet if Trump comes back to power. Trump has already predicted a generalized global levy on all imports into the US and a 60 % tax on all Chinese goods.

” With higher US tariffs, a number of highly open economies in the Asia-Pacific are at risk of GDP falling below their baselines”, said Deborah Tan, an analyst at Moody’s Ratings. Along with China, they include Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand.

According to Tan,” these are primarily economies with high participation in global value chains and high exposure to US and Chinese intermediate goods supply and final goods demand.”

Vietnam, for example, has a high export share of gross domestic product ( GDP ) with strong linkages with&nbsp, Chinese manufacturing&nbsp, supply chains. ” Our simulation shows that within Vietnam, the high-tech goods sector will take the largest hit to output”, Tan said. ” China, similarly, the high-tech goods sector takes the largest hit to output followed by the low-tech goods sector”.

As this threat percolates, Xi’s team in Beijing risks losing even more trust among global investors.

One thing is to discredit them on the stimulus front. The slower pace of fixing the housing sector, strengthening local government balance sheets, and establishing social safety nets so that households save less and spend more are the bigger issues.

However, these measures “do not replace the more thorough structural reforms that are required to promote longer-term growth,” according to World Bank economist Aaditya Mattoo. The majority of the measures and bond proceeds will carry over into the following fiscal year given the lead time for implementation of the policy.

Mattoo notes that “even then, consumers may be reluctant to splurge because a one-time transfer would not boost longer-term incomes or address concerns about aging, illness and unemployment”.

In the interim, billionaire Ray Dalio sees this as Xi’s party’s “do what it takes” to change the gloomy narrative that may be evoking global investor sentiment. Draghi’s 2012 declaration as head of the European Central Bank is referenced here.

Last week “was a big week” ,&nbsp, said Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates. ” In fact, I think that it was such a big week that&nbsp, it could go down in the market-economic history books as comparable to the week Draghi said that he and the ECB would ‘ do whatever it takes,’ if China’s policymakers, in fact, do what it takes, which will require a lot more than what was announced”.

A long-time China bull, Dalio is increasingly vocal about his worries Beijing is sleepwalking into a&nbsp, Japan-like funk&nbsp, that history shows is challenging to exit. It’s taken Tokyo 25 years to begin exiting quantitative easing and its zero-interest-rate policies, and even that is proving challenging for the Bank of Japan.

To avoid it, one must devise a “beautiful deleveraging” strategy that balances printing enough yuan to support growth without causing inflation to rise too quickly while restructuring the entire economy. ” Doing these things starts to rekindle’ bottom fishing ‘ ]in stocks ] and ‘ animal spirits,'” he said. ” That is clearly happening right now,” he says.

Any new deleveraging efforts by Xi and Premier Li Qiang, Dalio said, will undoubtedly disorient and likely lead to more wealth destruction. That, it follows, will require considerable political courage, with Xi and Li having to decide where the costs and fallout of debt losses will be concentrated.

To Dalio, it all depends on “how well China’s domestic debt-money-economy challenges will be handled”.

At the same time, demographics are complicating the deleveraging process. The numerous moving parts that Xi and Li are struggling to manage are given a unique dimension by China’s aging population and shrinking working-age population. &nbsp,

” While last week saw some amazing actions and words that I’m certain will be followed by highly stimulative policies that will greatly boost asset prices,” Dalio said.” I think there are several important other things to keep an eye on to see how well China’s domestic debt-money issues will be handled,”

That’s not to say there are n’t some reform wins that Xi and Li can tout. As Sherry Zhao, analyst at&nbsp, Fitch Ratings, pointed out, refinancing risks for China’s local-government financing vehicles ( LGFVs ) have “reduced in the short term following government debt-relief measures and policy support, which will limit systemic risk”.

Provincial governments, Zhao said, continue to issue special refinancing bonds to swap “hidden debt”. The central government, meanwhile, has increased transfers to shoulder more infrastructure spending.

However, Zhao stressed,” we believe those support measures focus on the prevention of short-term&nbsp, systemic risk rather than a full-scale bailout. There continue to be longer-term risks associated with&nbsp, LGFVs ‘ debt burdens, and their resolution will hinge on China’s overall economic and fiscal strength”.

The Third Plenum meeting in July made it clear that local and regional governments may have more revenue flexibility to better accommodate their expenditure demands. ” The credit effects”, Zhao said,” will depend on how the changes are implemented, and on local governments ‘ willingness to use any additional revenue-raising powers given to them”.

The official Fitch view is that overall&nbsp, LGFV&nbsp, debt growth will be curbed as local governments tighten control of new debt, especially in regions that Beijing views as a priority for debt resolution.

The danger, however, is that these regions ‘ long-term debt default risk “remains and may even rise because of imbalances in economic and debt growth, as well as the potential inability of local governments to generate sustainable revenue for debt service.”

There are encouraging indications that China is currently developing a plan to stabilize the financial system and lessen risks.

Zheng Shanjie, the head of the National Development and Reform Commission, told reporters on October 8 that Beijing is developing” comprehensive policy measures to help stop the decline in the real estate market.” Shanjie said this in response to the National Development and Reform Commission’s announcement to stop housing sales and prices.

Zheng added that” we will take a number of potent and effective measures to try to boost the capital market in response to volatility and declines in the stock market.”

Even so, many economists and investors were disappointed that more short-term stimulus is n’t being deployed. ” Tuesday’s press briefing from China’s top economic planner … was supposed to be the big moment, the one where Beijing unleashed a&nbsp, stimulus bazooka“, said economist Stephen Innes at SPI Asset Management. ” Instead, it was more of a pop gun”.

Innes added that” Beijing’s reluctance to roll out a bigger package is seriously questioned about the viability of this rally” in stocks.

James Sullivan, head of Asia-Pacific equity research at JPMorgan, told CNBC that” the million-dollar question in China right now is, does the stimulus only flow into the supply side of the equation, or does it ultimately flow through into consumer demand? That’s not our expectation right now”.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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