Asia is a ‘bright spot’ for economic growth amid geopolitical tensions, says Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser

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SINGAPORE: According to Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser, Asia continues to be a beautiful spot for the globe despite political unrest, continued wars, and China’s slowing economy.

According to her, the company moves US$ 4 trillion( S$ 5.5 trillion ), or the gross domestic product of Germany, every day for 5,000 foreign corporations, with the majority of that movement and activity occurring in Asia. & nbsp,

” Asia is merely the shining star of the universe.” She continued,” There are so many different regions where the changing dynamics are playing into the longer-term flavor and gain these, get it what we see in Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam. & nbsp,

China is currently facing difficulties, but she noted that the technological advancements the nation has made are” remarkable.”

In Singapore, where” a lot of different innovative paths” are emerging, there are also a number of growth opportunities, she told CNA. Ms. Fraser attended a Citigroup committee meeting in Singapore.

Every day I see them, innovative users in this region of the world astound me. They’re so creative and inventive, and that’s going to create a ton of money as well as economic growth over the medium to long phrase, she said.

She said,” I think you can tell I’m an idealist, especially in this region of the world.” & nbsp,

Ms. Fraser described the financial situation in different markets and stated that both consumer and corporate clients have been in great health in the United States despite the possibility of a crisis there next time.

She pointed out that the labor market and electricity prices in Europe are facing longer-term structural issues.

Ms. Fraser said it was time to position Citigroup for the growth that may occur, especially in Asia, as she leads the company through its most extreme transformation in decades, which includes streamlining the organization and eliminating jobs.

CHOOSING OUR Users

Ms. Fraser also discussed how the Wall Street behemoth maintains its regulation and risk management framework in a time when big banks may occasionally draw bad actors during the extensive appointment.

Citigroup, which has offices in 96 nations, is selective in the users it chooses, she claimed.

The advantage of being on the ground is that you’re not just( based ) on data.” We put a lot of rigor into it. You have a great grasp, she said.

Through its cyber capabilities and forgery recognition, the company has monitoring capabilities to assist clients in protecting against risks or negative actors, she said.

” It’s a great investment that we make, but it does start with being quite picky about who we do business with, making sure we are working with people with good reputations, and keeping them safe ,” Ms. Fraser said.

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Why Indonesia can’t stop crocodile attacks

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Saltwater crocodileAnindita Pradana / BBC
By Astudestra Ajengrastri and Raja Lumbanrau
World Service BBC

A 3m-long salt snake had been resting in the crater last September when Sariah went to fetch liquid in a crater close to her house in Bangka Island, Indonesia, and was watching her fill one of her containers.

I made the decision to take a shower because the water was quiet and there were no crocodile signs. The 54-year-old claims that it instantly materialized, bit me, and dragged me by my left shoulder into the water.

The world’s most saline reptile attacks occur in Indonesia. There have been roughly 1,000 problems over the last ten years, which have claimed the lives of more than 450 people. According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature( IUCN ), nearly 90 of these attacks occurred on Bangka and the nearby island of Belitung.

One of the richest tin-mining regions in the world is Bangka beach.

One million people live on the island, which is nearly the size of Hawaii, and roughly 80 % of them work as workers. According to wildlife conservation organization Walhi, more than 60 % of the region’s property has already been turned into iron mines. These mine are many of the improper ones.

The island’s woodland has been cleared by decades of tin mining, leaving behind thousands of enormous pits and craters that resemble celestial landscapes. Additionally, as area reserves decline, miners are moving to the water.

This results in the eviction of seawater crocodiles from their natural habitats, despite the fact that they can even survive in water. They are currently residing in lively mine pits close to people’s homes, which is why attacks are on the increase.

An aerial view of land and water on Bangka Island

Anindita Pradana / BBC

The well in front of Sariah’s home dried up last year due to the protracted dry winter brought on by climate change. After she ran up on payments for three weeks, her water source was shut off. Therefore, for her home and many others, the abandoned mines were the only source of water.

A worker on the island was washing can metal in another pit five days after the assault on Sariah when he was nearly killed by a crocodile. His mind, back, and arm were all broken.

custom murders

Adult male saltwater crocodiles can grow to lengths of more than 7 meters( 23 feet ), making them the largest living snake. Worldwide, there are between 20,000 and 30,000 salt alligators, with Indonesia being one of the most significant habitats. There are no formal estimates of the number in Indonesia, though.

Although turtles are a species that is protected in Indonesia, on Bangka Island, they are typically killed after an assault rather than being given to the local conservation organization.

Many visitors choose to kill the animals and immerse them in a ritual because they think that allowing the snake to be saved and moving it to another site is bad sign for the community.

The single animals save and conservation center on the island, Alobi, is run by Endi Riadi, who claims that his crew frequently debates with citizens about how to save the crocodiles.

Alobi, which was established in 2014, is home to a variety of wildlife, including animals and crocodiles. Officials either took these animals in trafficking cases or captured them after encounters with people.

Alobi is home to 34 crocodiles that have been saved and are confined to a volleyball court-sized water. To stop them from straying and attacking other species, an iron gate has been constructed.

The water appears quiet for the majority of the day, and many crocodiles can be seen floating like enormous rocks. However, when the team was feeding, they had sprint toward the top and compete for the beef chunks that were thrown.

According to Mr. Riadi, it is expensive to keep all the turtles in the recovery facility. Alobi depends on funds and doesn’t receive direct federal funding. The sanctuary collaborates with local cattle farmers to provide more affordable meals to feed the gleeful animals.

We can supply them with one complete cattle once a month. According to Mr. Riadi, if the farmers have dying animals, we also feed them.

However, he claims that they might not be able to keep transporting turtles up to the already crowded center. It’s also not an opportunity to let them go back into the wild.

Crocodiles in Alobi

Anindita Pradana / BBC

However, unless the crocodiles’ environments are protected, attacks on humans will continue, and professionals claim that illegal mining is the cause of the issue. Crocodiles will be evicted from their natural habitats as people move farther away to sea in search of iron.

By legalizing improper mining, the Indian government has adopted an uncommon strategy to combat it. According to Amir Syahbana, a local official in charge of managing power and metal resources, the government permits miners to operate in these illegal mines in exchange for their commitment to habitat restoration.

This includes everything from planting a tree to managing spend. However, many people are dubious about the plan, doubting whether laborers will really work to protect the environment. They will probably get away with it either means due to the island’s inadequate law enforcement.

” Everyone in this room mines can.” Sariah, who has not visited the pits since the invasion, claims that they don’t give a damn about the environment. Other household members offer to go if her home runs out of water.

She claims to be fortunate to still be dead, but moving her left palm or fingers still hurts.

She claims that occasionally while I sleep, the strike recurs in my dreams.

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US-China relations have stabilized, but in permafrost

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The likely meeting between Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the APEC summit in San Francisco in November supports hopes of a “thaw” in US-China relations this year. Biden predicted such a thaw earlier this year and some observers believe they see an upturn.

The outlook is less optimistic, however, if we assess the current state of the relationship from a longer historical perspective. For several decades, US relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) followed long cycles featuring high climbs and deep descents.

During the Korean War in the 1950s, the relationship reached a nadir with Chinese and American soldiers killing each other in battle. For years afterward, Washington remained deeply hostile toward China, viewing Mao’s regime as aggressive and irrational.

The 1970s, however, saw US President Richard Nixon’s visit to China, PRC paramount leader Deng Xiaoping’s visit to the US and the establishment of normal diplomatic relations. 

Another serious downturn followed in 1989 with the Tiananmen Massacre. But in 1994 the relationship had recovered to the point where US President Bill Clinton de-linked the renewal of China’s Most Favored Nation trade status from the PRC government’s human rights record. 

Relations weathered the shocks of the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1995-96 and the bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade by US aircraft in 1999. Clinton’s government granted China Permanent Normal Trade status in 1999, and China joined the World Trade Organization in 2000 with Washington’s support. 

A bilateral crisis intervened in 2001, resulting from a collision over the ocean near the Chinese coast between a US surveillance aircraft and a recklessly maneuvering PRC fighter aircraft. The Chinese pilot died, and the PRC government imprisoned the US aircrew for 12 days while demanding an apology from Washington. Some members of Congress said the Chinese were taking “hostages” and deserved no apology.

Yet three years later, US-China relations had improved to the point where US Secretary of State Colin Powell called the relationship “the best we’ve had in 30 years.” Shortly thereafter, US Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick articulated the American vision of China as a “responsible stakeholder.” A US official making such a statement today seems unimaginable.

That was the last multi-year high point before the Xi Jinping era began in 2012. Xi has presided over an era of steady decline in the bilateral relationship, marked by irritants such as China’s construction of military bases in the South China Sea, Chinese “Wolf Warrior” diplomacy, the Covid-19 pandemic, tensions over Taiwan, Chinese economic coercion against trade partners that are US friends and allies, PRC government-sponsored cybertheft, the Chinese spy balloon furor, US attempts to stop China from getting advanced technologies and Beijing’s pro-Russia position on the Ukraine war. 

Importantly, the Xi era simultaneously saw China attain a level of military capability that forced Americans to begin to see the PRC as a peer competitor.

Chinese President Xi Jinping reviews a military display of Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy in the South China Sea on April 12, 2018. Photo: Reuters/Li Gang/Xinhua
Chinese President Xi Jinping reviews a military display by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy in the South China Sea on April 12, 2018. Photo: Xinhua

Before Xi, the relationship was volatile in the sense of high mobility between cordial and hostile. The positive aspect of this volatility was the expectation that when relations were poor, eventually they would recover.

If US-China relations were a stock bought at US$50 per share, sometimes the value would go down to $30, but you could depend on it eventually bouncing back to $75. 

Now, however, as a consequence of large, irreconcilable conflicts in the two governments’ vital interests, the scope for dramatic improvement in China-US relations is far more limited than prior to the Xi era. 

The relationship is stable rather than volatile, but it has stabilized at a low level of quality, locking in poor bilateral relations for an extended period. The $50 stock may be stuck at $25 indefinitely. And it may drag down the rest of the stock market.  

To be sure, the two countries have taken some steps this year to improve their relations. They’ve established working groups on economic and financial issues. In September, the PRC government assisted in the return of fugitive US soldier Travis King from North Korea to the US, earning thanks from the White House. 

Several recent Chinese moves might be signals of goodwill with broader implications: the release of Australian journalist Cheng Lei after three years of imprisonment on questionable grounds, an agreement to cooperate with Western institutions in restructuring Zambia’s debt and an invitation to the US to send delegates to the Xiangshan defense forum in Beijing, China’s knock-off of Singapore’s annual Shangri-La Dialogue. 

These mostly procedural and atmospheric steps are pathetically minor, however, compared to the substantive and intractable problems that still divide the PRC and the US.

On October 17, for instance, the US Department of Defense accused China of “a centralized and concerted campaign” of harassing US and allied aircraft in international airspace near China, also releasing a collection of photos and videos apparently showing Chinese fighter aircraft flying dangerously close to US aircraft. 

Harassment missions by PRC aircraft and ships reflect both China’s disregard for some aspects of international law and Beijing’s insistence that other countries accord China a sphere of influence. Fundamentally, Beijing wants to replace US “hegemony” in the western Pacific with PRC pre-eminence. PRC public diplomacy daily condemns US global leadership, US regional influence, and US alliances.

Thus far, Washington shows no interest in re-trenching. Even four years of Donald Trump, who openly disparaged US alliance relationships and seemed inclined to follow a Jacksonian foreign policy, made hardly a dent in the well-established US posture of forward deployment in the Asia-Pacific.

Washington continues to challenge China’s claim of ownership over most of the South China Sea through diplomatic protests, “freedom of navigation” operations by US ships and aircraft, and support for pushback against Chinese claims by countries in the region. 

Taiwan, as well, remains a flashpoint over which neither side will yield. Absent an agreement on their respective policies toward Taiwan, Washington and Beijing are trudging, zombie-like, toward an eventual cross-Strait war, as each tries unsuccessfully to warn off the other by making military preparations.

China demands that America return to the pre-Xi posture of heavy economic engagement and technological collaboration with minimal restrictions. That is no longer possible given US disillusionment with the Xi regime.

The pandemic subsequently supercharged this sentiment, as Americans learned how concretely vulnerable they were to Chinese-produced goods that might suddenly become unavailable either because of economic disruption in China or because of intentional Chinese economic coercion. 

The clincher is a bipartisan commitment in the US to curtail cooperation, whether technology transfer or investment, that might enable PRC foreign policies that undercut US interests.  

Any possible US-China thaw can be extremely fragile, as we saw in June of this year. Days after the successful talks in China by his secretary of state, Biden remarked off-handedly that Beijing overreacted to the US shooting down the Chinese spy balloon because it caught Xi by surprise, and “That’s what’s a great embarrassment for dictators, when they didn’t know what happened.” 

US sailors fish the collapsed Chinese spy balloon out of the Atlantic off South Carolina. Photo: US Navy

Biden was seemingly defending China against the hardline US view that Xi dispatched the balloon as an intentional humiliation of the US. Nevertheless, the PRC government responded angrily, saying Biden’s remarks were “ridiculous and irresponsible” and “seriously violate[d] basic facts, diplomatic protocol and China’s political dignity.” 

Biden’s take reflected a highly plausible interpretation of the incident, but Beijing objects to Xi being called a “dictator” even though this description is factually correct.

Those who expect that a Xi-Biden meeting in San Francisco will cause a breakthrough should recall that Biden and Xi had a similar face-to-face meeting a year ago in Bali. That meeting paved the way for several US cabinet members to visit China, but otherwise did nothing to solve the big issues causing bilateral friction. 

Although the two leaders agreed in principle that a zero-sum relationship and a new cold war are undesirable, each government subsequently continued to blame the other’s policies for causing problems.

In this new stability, thaws will be more modest and less frequent. US-China relations are becoming more like US-North Korea relations, where a poor bilateral relationship is so ossified that hopeful observers get over-excited about a meeting between officials. 

Denny Roy is Senior Fellow at the Honolulu-based East-West Center.

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Saudi pause on Israel deal buys MBS needed time

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When the Hamas strike on October 7, 2023, occurred, Saudi Arabia and Israel appeared to be on the verge of a historic agreement to restore their diplomatic relations.

Since therefore, thousands of people have perished in Israel and Gaza. Additionally, worries about the conflict spreading throughout the area serve as the backdrop for frantic politics in the area, which includes US President Joe Biden’s visit to Israel on October 18.

The” de-risking” of the area, a crucial component of Saudi Arabia’s foreign and domestic agenda, is also in danger of being undermined. A resurgence of local unrest is the last thing Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman needs as he works to implement” Vision 2030 ,” an optimistic economic, social, and cultural software that aims to make the country a popular tourist and investment destination.

Undoubtedly, the rise in crime in the Middle East poses a problem to the new shift toward de-escalation of tensions across much of the wider region.

The Abraham Accords, which established political ties between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco, were among those that were signed in 2020. However, it goes even further, resulting in the filing of a package in March 2023 to mend rivalries across the Gulf and recover Saudi-Iranian relationships.

Through initiatives like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, which was unveiled at the G20 meeting in India in September 2023, these political breakthroughs created a place for increased local participation.

Officials from all over the area hoped that economic growth would combine the area and shift attention away from the failure to make progress in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian issue.

Gulf states are in danger of losing their delicate balancing act of supporting the Palestinian reason in front of their predominately Muslim communities while also making efforts to Israel and the US due to violence in Gaza and Israel.

For instance, Qatar has huge hosted Hamas’ political leadership while maintaining cordial relations with the US. It will probably now come under intense US and Jewish pressure to remove Hamas from power.

In 2020, the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco both normalized ties with Israel. However, there has always been, at best, ambivalent public support for the Abraham Accords in the area, and it may then start to wane.

Dubai, the largest town in the United Arab Emirates, is preparing to host COP28, an international convention on climate change, beginning on November 30. The UAE won’t need a new geographical conflict to overshadow or endanger the event.

Saudi Arabia, however, is the place where the line is most precarious. This is due to the village’s spiritual status in the Islamic world, which includes guarding the two holiest sites of the faith, Mecca and Medina, as well as the ambitious raft of economic reforms it has implemented as part of Vision 2030.

Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, the current prince of Saudi Arabia, has been a fervent supporter of Palestine his entire life. The campaign for Arab statehood has long been well-known in the Arab world.

However, the king lord, his son and heir, has grown more interested in speaking with Israel. This has culminated in discussions to” normalize” relations between the two nations, which may mark a turning point in Israel’s approval in the Arab and Muslim worlds.

Crown Prince Mohammed told Fox News that” every morning, we get closer” to a bargain since late as September 20. In fact, a number of leaking to US media in the days and weeks leading up to the Hamas strike suggested that the Biden administration was driving the formation of an agreement.

People performances and covert politics

However, the Hamas assault and Israel’s retaliation have shattered this momentum. On October 13, Royal sources informed the media that normalization talks had been suspended but never given up.

For communication is consistent with Royal efforts to strike a balance between domestic and foreign interests. The” Arab groups” and” Israeli occupation forces” were both urged to de-escalate in an original Saudi Foreign Ministry statement on October 7.

However, Saudi authorities were more willing to take sides during the first Friday worship at the Grand Mosque in Mecca following the attacks, with the state-appointed divine pleading for support for” our sons in Palestine.”

Behind the outward displays of support for Palestinians, there is proof that Saudi Arabia is attempting to lead diplomatic efforts to stop the conflict between Israel and Hamas from escalating into a larger blaze that could involve Lebanon, Iran, and other countries.

Crown Prince Mohammed and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi had their first dialogue since the two nations’ relations were reestablished on October 12. They talked about the current events in Israel and Gaza.

In Riyadh, three days later, the crown prince welcomed US Secretary of State Antony Blinken amid reports in the media about the need for de-escalation and differences between Arabian and US jobs on the issue.

Such political actions are consistent with the queen king’s desire to” de-risk” the area. He is eager to see that nothing jeopardizes a number of” giga-projects” that have come to be known as Vision 2030, such as Neom, the futuristic new city on the Red Sea coast.

Saudi Arabia worries that a protracted or local conflict will discourage foreign funding in Vision 2030.

The success of the project was viewed as dependent on foreign funding. However, after dozens of top Arabian business figures were detained by the Saudi government at the Ritz-Carlton hotel in 2017 on suspicion of corruption, levels of foreign investment fell precipitously. The idea that their business associates may abruptly vanish or be upset alarmed traders.

Saudi Arabia must therefore bear a larger portion of Vision 2030’s prices themselves. This explains why Saudi officials worked with their Russian counterparts during OPEC meetings to maintain an oil price that would bring in enough money to support the projects.

A hand holds a newspaper with Arabic writing and a picture of three men, one wearing traditional Saudi dress.
The agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran was significant information. Photo: Atta Kenare, The Conversation, and AFP via Getty Images

Crown Prince Mohammed is determined to lessen regional tensions, including with Iran, because Vision 2030 is so closely linked to his promise to convert Saudi Arabia that he cannot afford for it to crash.

Saudi officials even recently launched a bid to host the 2034 FIFA World Cup and revised their plans to bring in 100 million customers annually by 2030, up to 150 million.

The Saudis want to expand the kingdom’s market away from an excessive reliance on oil, making it a destination for both capital and people. This is the driving force behind these initiatives. Another Center Eastern local conflict, particularly one that involved Iran, would jeopardize these goals.

playing the” standardization” cards

So where does the” normalization” of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel begin?

It fits Crown Prince Mohammed’s meticulous balancing act to put the operation on hold for the time being. Full-speed travel would have put the area at risk of attack from various Arab and Middle Eastern says, undermining the” de-risking” process.

Additionally, it might give Saudi Arabia more utilize because Israel and the US may be careful to prevent the recent violence from completely derailing the process.

Given the outpouring of anger in the Muslim world over developments in Gaza, I contend that pausing the process now makes military sense for Saudi Arabia. It also gives the Royal leadership the chance to steer the next stage of what is still a very delicate endeavor.

Kristian Coates Ulrichsen is a Middle East Fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute.

Under a Creative Commons license, this post has been republished from The Conversation. read the article in its entirety.

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China’s GDP surprise can’t mask property mess

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The unexpected rise in China’s gross domestic product ( GDP ) may provide more material for anthropologists than economists.

Spending on drinking and restaurants was one of the main use strengths, and it came at a time when some mainlanders may be excused for trying to drown their sorrows in the tumultuous real estate markets.

However, a strong dose of gravity is also necessary given the excitement surrounding the GDP’s 4.9 % increase in the three times that ended September year after year.

Despite strong retail sales, the data indicate that President Xi Jinping’s team has not yet made significant progress in its efforts to combat deflation and maintain the real estate market.

It hardly helps that economists like Louis Kuijs of S & amp and P Global Ratings point out price changes and government data revisions that could have raised third-quarter numbers. For instance, it is unclear how Beijing statisticians used producer price index calculations to account for poor business field prices.

Additionally, China announced the largest-ever decline in the value of regular exports, a move that may have been made to cover up commerce weakness as the world’s demand softened. The analytical adjustment makes annual comparisons seem more reliable because exercise is now being measured from a lower foundation.

The specifics of China’s most recent GDP data suggest that the state of Xi has more work to do to shorten GDP as investors worry about cooked books, whether intentionally or unintentionally. Additionally, the cash flows affecting island assets highlight the need to restore the property market, which can account for up to 30 % of GDP in prosperous times.

Economists are speculating about” Japanization” risks in Asia’s largest economy due to the intensifying drag in real estate and related default dramas. Property investment decreased 9.1 % year over year in the first nine months of 2023. Despite moves & nbsp’s decision to reduce the payment requirements for real estate purchases in the biggest cities in China in September, the contraction is speeding up.

In September, price drops in China’s new homes accelerated. Prices, excluding state-subsidized cover, decreased by 0.3 % in 70 towns measured starting in August.

According to Louise Loo, a China economist at Oxford Economics,” home measures remained extremely poor in September with no evidence of bottoming out.”

According to a recent report from S & amp, P’s credit analysts,” the low number of construction starts, an inventory overhang in lower-tier cities, and ever-tightening escrow restrictions will keep property sales depressed.”

Property designer Country Garden Holdings warned of impending doom this week amid rumors that it may have for the first time defaulted on dollar securities. According to economist Carlos Casanova of Union Bancaire Privée,” most of the financial downside may be traced again to contractionary house investment.” & nbsp,

The most recent real estate developer in China to be unable to pay its bills is Country Garden. Screengrab / CNN picture

China Evergrande Group is still having trouble restructuring its hundreds of billion dollars in onshore loan two years after it filed for bankruptcy. The trust of the home and the company is significantly hampered by deeper worries that developers lack the funds to finish their properties.

Economists predict that additional fiscal and monetary stimulus is on the method as a result. The business is” not out of the wilderness by any means ,” according to economist Stephen Innes, managing companion at SPI Asset Management, despite China’s second quarter figures exceeding expectations.

According to Innes, this progress portends a slight improvement in the Foreign market. To maintain steady progress, however, there are ongoing calls for more policy support due to worries about the recovery’s sustainability.

However, according to economist Zhang Zhiwei at Pinpoint Asset Management,” the advancement in fourth quarter financial data makes it less likely for the state to release signal in the fourth quarter, as the growth goal of 5 % is set to be achieved.”

The” financial recovery is still in its infancy ,” adds scientist Harry Murphy Cruise of Moody’s Analytics. The aspirin required to get over a property hangover may be provided directly to households, but this support seems increasingly doubtful.

The likelihood that China will reach its 5 % growth target this year is rising, at least statistically. UBS increased its forecast for mainland growth from 4.8 % to 5.2 % this week. JPMorgan raised its estimate from 5 % to 5.2 %.

However, UBS economists predict that the real estate business will only grow by 4.4 % in 2024. Additionally, the possibility of a Japan-like negative funk may make these numbers appear unduly upbeat.

Shareholders have been anticipating further price declines ever since July, when client rates turned negative for the first time since 2021. More new information only heightened concern about the negative consequences on consumer and business confidence.

According to economist Robert Carnell at ING Bank,” September’s inflation data remind & nbsp, us that, despite some recent firming in activity indicators, Chinese economic recovery remains challenged.”

That might entail more money coming in from the People’s Bank of China and sporadic financial outbursts from regional governments. To enhance the quality of national growth and lessen the frequency of boom / bust cycles, Xi’s team must, however, develop a stabler and more productive property sector.

According to Macquarie Group analyst Larry Hu,” home is the main concern.” According to Citigroup analyst Xiangrong Yu,” plan efforts may be stepped up moving forwards, especially for early next year, with focus on old-villain redevelopment, native debt resolution, financial expansion.”

The issue is that” at the moment, the economy is quite investment-heavy ,” according to Thomas Helbling, deputy director of the International Monetary Fund’s Asia-Pacific system.

The home problems and declining global demand were cited by the IMF as the two biggest obstacles looming over China in a recent report on the country. However, a development concept that promotes pointless loans is also true.

China’s economic unit, which is fueled by loan, needs to be revised. Instagram photo

Beijing, according to Helbling, needs to level the playing field for private companies to engage with publicly traded companies. To promote intake and increase investments in knowledge and technology to increase efficiency, it must also create a robust social safety net, according to him. Changes to pensions are also essential to addressing China’s rapidly aging population.

There is a benefit to rise if you implement those changes, according to Helbling.

According to economist Betty Wang at Australia & amp, New Zealand Banking Group, immediate action is required to stabilize the property market and boost public trust. According to Wang, if more house buyers stop making payments, the pattern will threaten the financial system’s health and cause social problems in the midst of the current economic downturn.

When she tells Bloomberg that” when it comes to home, it’s about renewing trust on the ground ,” purchase director at Fidelity International, Catherine Yeung, speaks for some.

The wider Eastern region is also in immediate danger from China’s property issues. According to analyst Ed Parker at Fitch Ratings,” the emerging market rating outlook is healthy, but the decline in China’s nbsp, property & blb, market, and higher world bond yields are important downside risks.”

Parker points out that given the impact on global trade, commodity prices, and financial market conditions, the” slowdown in China’s & nbsp, property and nfspp, sector and downside risks to its GDP growth add to risks facing EM economies.”

A sudden halt to Chinese banks lending has also cut off a crucial source of funding for many EMs, and China’s differing perspectives from different creditors on debt restructuring are delaying the signing of agreements.

All of this is not taking place in a void. Foreign developers are increasingly in danger as US authorities bond yields reach 17-year peaks. as is the larger Asia place.

China’s problems with home pose a threat to greater Asia. Photo: Facebook

According to Fitch, from 8.3 % in 2022, the emerging market median general government interest-revenue ratio will rise to 9.5 % and 10.3 %, respectively, by 2023 and 2024. According to” Parkers ,” higher-for-longer US bond yields run the risk of a greater and more persistent increase in funding costs. The pressure on finances amounts is increasing due to higher interest payments.

According to Parker, the risk in the future is that” governments will need to tighten fiscal policy to run smaller primary deficits in order to stabilize government debt / GDP, other things equal.”

No matter how near it gets to 5 %, whether for real or just statistically, this will be as big a problem for China as anywhere else. The world’s second-largest economy may experience quick business for watering holes due to the weak real estate sector, which will be at the middle of it all.

Follow William Pesek on X, formerly Twitter, at @ WilliamPessp.

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Despite ambitions, Ankara’s role in Gaza will be limited

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Regional capabilities are concentrating on rescuing human lives and bringing about a peace as tensions rise in and around Gaza and Israel pounds the Hamas enclave as it gets ready to launch an invasion. & nbsp,

The two countries seen as the most probable mediators in a fight that runs the risk of outpacing Hamas are Egypt, with its land borders, and Qatar. Turkey, however, is yet another competitor that must be taken into account.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the president of Turkey and a fervent Hamas champion, has saved the United States his harshest criticism since the problems. He & nbsp has warned that US military operations in the area could result in” serious massacres” in Gaza and continues to advocate for an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital within the 1967 borders.

Ankara has been urged to step inside by foreign officials in turn. Annalena Baerbock, the foreign minister of Germany, urged Turkey to use its diplomatic relations with Hamas to drive for the release of victims, including German citizens. Hakan Fidan, Baerbock’s Greek counterpart, responded by revealing a Turkish peace strategy.

relationships to Hamas

But is Turkey being asked to do more by the West than it can provide? The global community appears ready and willing to accept assistance wherever it may appear, eager for a remedy. However, there are two causes why Ankara is not likely to be that location.

The first is simply that Ankara’s connection with Hamas is very comfortable for some planet leaders to take, despite the fact that it may be helpful in this circumstance. & nbsp,

The second, which is more complex, concerns Turkey’s conflict in northern Syria with the Syrian Democratic Forces ( SDF ), which are dominated by Kurds. & nbsp,

Turkey has not designated Hamas as a criminal organization, in contrast to many Western nations. Ankara, on the other hand, has developed closer relations with the organization over the past ten years.

With Turkey’s approval, Hamas established an company in Istanbul in 2012. Ahmet Davutoglu, the then-foreign chancellor, saw closer ties with Hamas as a means of preserving his influence in the area as the Syrian civil war grew.

This raised questions in Israel, where ties with Ankara had deteriorated following the Gaza fleet assault in May 2010. Nine activists were killed and 10 Jewish soldiers were injured during an Israeli military operation against the Greek send Mavi Marmara, which was attempting to deliver humanitarian assistance to Gaza.

When the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs & nbsp published a report in December 2021 accusing Hamas of planning and directing hundreds of terror attacks against Israelis from its Istanbul headquarters, relations were further strained. The report was based on Israeli intelligence.

The Erdogan leadership, however, doubled down and granted citizenship to senior Hamas leaders and workers rather than severing its ties to the organization. & nbsp,

Older political leader Ismail Haniyeh and commander Saleh al-Arouri,” two of the possible masterminds behind the latest attacks ,” are among the top Hamas officials, according to Sinan Ciddi, a Turkey expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington.

After Turkey and Israel resumed full diplomatic ties in August of last year, signs that relations were beginning to strengthen are expected to be derailed by the Hamas harm.

It should come as no surprise that US and Israeli leaders are now urging Turkey to define its stance on Hamas, shut down the organization’s Greek offices, and revoke its leaders’ Turkish passports. Therefore, Erdogan must decide whether he wants to be a mediator or negotiator.

The Shiite query

The next obstacle, Turkey’s ties to the Kurds and the SDF, is even more overwhelming.

Turkey has launched an offensive against the People’s Defense Units( YPG ), primarily Kurdish and nbsp, militant organizations that make up the Western-backed SDF, as long as it has maintained ties to militant Hamas. Due to their affiliation with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party ( PKK ), which runs an armed guerrilla movement inside Turkey, Erdogan has branded the YPG as terrorists. & nbsp,

US President Joe Biden and his team recently launched an executive order to increase the US military’s presence in the region after a strike against the SDF and Turkey drone attack in northern Syria.

Turkey’s conflict with the PKK and, by association, the YPG / SDF has also given Europe geopolitical problems. Sweden, a potential part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, has been charged by Erdogan with housing PKK soldiers. He has obstructed Sweden’s application to join NATO as retribution.

Erdogan’s anti-American speech and Turkish actions are seen by Washington as attempts to drive the US off Palestinian soil. This explains why trust between the two friends is at an all-time low and why Secretary of State Antony Blinken did not visit Turkey during his most recent visit of the Middle East. & nbsp,

President Biden, who arrived in Israel this month, is unlikely to turn to Erdogan in this dire situation in such a poisonous environment. Despite Ankara’s ambitions, Egypt and Qatar will be on the board as Washington looks for a way out of the Gaza crisis.

The copyright-holding Syndication Bureau, & nbsp, provided this article.

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Didi, Huawei lead the way for a China bounce back

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If ever there were a business story proving the folly of sanctions in today’s hyper-integrated world, it’s Huawei and the runaway success of the Mate 60 Pro smartphone it unveiled last month.

For years now, Huawei has been central to US efforts to stymie Chinese tech development. Since 2019, when Donald Trump was in the White House, Huawei has been on Washington’s “Entity List.” That greatly limited the Shenzhen-based company’s access to key technology, essentially knocking it out of the smartphone game.

Well, not so much. “This is a breakthrough for Huawei, which has not been able to produce a 5G mobile phone since 2020 and has seen its once-commanding global market share shrivel to basically zero,” says analyst Tilly Zhang at Gavekal Research.

“It’s led to fierce debate over the efficacy of the US measures,” Zhang says, “with boosters in China and critics in the US claiming that the new phone shows the sanctions are ineffective and that China has already overcome them.”

In reality, Zhang says, “it’s more of a symbolic victory for Huawei that will not fundamentally change the trajectory of China’s technology sector under US sanctions.”

And yet it’s also a strong case study not just of Beijing’s ability to steer around trade curbs, but also of what China Inc needs to do to raise its game.

Didi Global is simultaneously offering another case study. Didi was among the most recognized global brands caught up in the tech crackdown President Xi Jinping launched in late 2020. Now, the ride-hailing juggernaut plans to list in Hong Kong early next year.

The comeback — and Didi’s success in restoring relations with Chinese regulators — is all the more remarkable considering the drama surrounding its forced delisting last year.

Its ill-fated New York initial public offering (IPO) came as Xi’s team was reining in top internet platforms, starting with Alibaba Holdings and later extending to Didi, Baidu, ByteDance, JD.com, Meituan, Tencent and others.

Naturally, Didi needs the blessings of Xi and Premier Li Qiang to arrange any new share listing. It set the stage for an IPO by acceding to regulators’ concerns about corporate governance and data privacy — and paying an 8 billion yuan ($1.1 billion) fine in 2022.

Didi was forced to take a ride-hailing break after authorities demanded changes to its data-collection practices. Photo: Asia Times Files / AFP

Damage has been done, of course. The company’s market share at home dropped to about 70% today from 90% before Xi’s tech clampdown. Yet like Alibaba, Didi is offering peers a blueprint for how to make peace with the regulatory squeeze of recent years — and come out the other side with a still dominant position.

While a work in progress, Alibaba’s metamorphosis into a holding company with six different business groups offers its own pointers to mainland chieftains. Now add Huawei and Didi to the list of companies reminding Beijing that the way forward is savvy restructuring and disruption, not giant stock bailout funds.

Xi’s Communist Party is considering creating a state-backed stabilization mechanism, backed by hundreds of billions of yuan of public funds, to stabilize a shaky US$9.5 trillion stock market.

Global funds have been net sellers of mainland stocks in recent months amid disappointment over the strength of China’s post-Covid economic recovery. Recently, China’s sovereign wealth fund bought about US$65 million of stock in the nation’s biggest banks.

A broader stabilization fund would be akin to how Beijing dealt with the stock crash of 2015. That was when Shanghai shares fell by more than 30% in just three weeks.

This “national team buying,” as Li Fuwen, a fund manager at Guangdong Value Forest Private Securities Investment, puts it, is a more potent way “to salvage confidence” than others Xi has taken, including tax cuts and lower stamp duties.

David Nealis, president of consultancy Ceres Ltd, adds that the policy “sounds like an opportunity.”

Yet many market players are critical of the stock-buying fund, arguing it treats the symptoms, not the underlying causes, of China’s market rout.

Economist Victor Shih at the University of California, San Diego says “that’s basically re-nationalization,” running counter to Xi’s pledges 10 years ago to let market forces play a “decisive” role in China’s future.

Economist Trinh Nguyen at Natixis says the problem is that “underwhelming economic data and dejected retail investors” are fueling more sell orders than buying opportunities.

It’s a movie China investors have seen before, says Jeroen Blokland, founder of advisory True Insights. “In 2015, China did something similar, giving China Securities Finance Corp nearly $500 billion in firepower to stop the crash in Chinese stocks. It did not help. Chinese stocks dropped by another 20% after the announcement of the intervention.”

An investor is seen in front of an electronic screen showing stock information (green for losses) at a brokerage house in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China. Photo: China Daily via Reuters
An investor is seen in front of an electronic screen showing stock information (green for losses) at a brokerage house in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China. Photo: China Daily

Morgan Stanley analyst Laura Wang adds that previous interventions had no real lasting effect — including in 2015. “Whether the market could be effectively stabilized or reversed into an upward trend is not, in our view, solely dependent on such state purchase actions.”

What’s needed, Wang notes, is credible financial reforms that increase trust among foreign investors.

In the short run, investors are troubled by Xi’s reluctance to act bigger and bolder in rolling out fresh stimulus efforts to boost the economy and cushion the blow of a property slump. Xi worries that opening the fiscal and monetary floodgates might incentivize more bad lending behavior and that doing so would squander efforts to reduce leverage.

“Whatever does emerge from Beijing over the coming months, it likely won’t be quick enough to make any meaningful difference to 2023,” says Robert Carnell, head of Asia-Pacific research at ING Bank. “At best, it should be viewed as a pain management tool for the transition to a less leveraged economy.”

But structural reform is the key to stabilizing stocks. Priorities include strengthening China’s capital markets, financial infrastructure and corporate governance. Others: incentivizing innovation, increasing productivity and expanding opportunities for economic disruption.

Easier monetary and fiscal policies or bailing out markets won’t prod local governments to devise more competitive business environments, build social safety nets needed to get households to spend more and save less or address the nation’s fast aging population.

Stimulus won’t accelerate China’s transition from debt-and-investment-driven growth to a more domestic-demand-led model. It’s not sufficient to bolster foreign investors’ confidence to bet big on China.  And it can’t stabilize the nation’s deeply troubled property markets.

That’s not to say the People’s Bank of China central bank shouldn’t ease in the months ahead. As the government moves to sell bonds to smooth out growth, “the PBOC may need to step up its liquidity support and lower interest rates to accommodate the issuance, which adds conviction to our call for another cut to reserve-requirement ratios and a policy rate cut in the fourth quarter,” says analyst Maggie Wei at Goldman Sachs Group.

Yet Xi’s team must work faster to repair China’s shaky property sector. Two years after China Evergrande Group defaulted, fellow giant developer Country Garden is signaling it may miss payments on offshore obligations — as soon as this week. Country Garden’s debt load was about US$196 billion at the end of 2022.

A “default would likely hurt homebuyer confidence, especially in lower-tier cities where its properties are concentrated, which would undermine policies to boost sales across the country,” says analyst Rick Waters at the Eurasia Group risk consultancy.

China’s Country Garden is the latest property developer that can’t pay its debts. Image: Screengrab / CNN

However, Waters notes, “Beijing is likely still reluctant to bail out the company. In fact, the government launched an investigation against Evergrande that prevents it from restructuring debt. If Beijing does help, it would probably focus on acquiring and completing unbuilt residential projects.”

A stock-buying fund, circa 2023, does get at a big paradox of the Xi era: if these periodic interventions work, why are they still necessary 10 years on?

To be sure, the bear market signals emanating from Shanghai today aren’t as dire as in the summer of 2015. Those chaotic declines slammed bourses from Tokyo to London to New York and fueled contagion fears.

At the time, Xi’s government scrambled to loosen rules on leverage and reduce reserve requirements. It also delayed all IPOs, suspended trading in thousands of listed companies, allowed apartments to be used as collateral to buy shares and lobbied households to invest in stocks out of a sense of patriotism.

The common thread between then and now is Team Xi’s penchant for prioritizing market-opening efforts over reforms – a tendency to over-promise and under-deliver financial upgrade-wise.

Since 2015, Xi’s regulators accelerated steps to open equity markets wider and wider to overseas investors. As Beijing increased quotas for foreign funds, it prioritized getting its government bonds added to benchmarks like the FTSE-Russell.

Likewise, moves to include Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks in benchmarks like MSCI outpaced reforms needed to prepare China Inc for global prime time. Flipping the script requires methodically increasing transparency, ensuring companies tighten corporate governance, building reliable surveillance mechanisms like trusted credit rating companies and erecting a robust market infrastructure before the world shows up with its funds.

A freer media also would help Xi’s inner circle intensify anti-corruption efforts and would be a natural ally in policing the malfeasance that distorts economic incentives and squanders the benefits of rapid gross domestic product (GDP).

But as Huawei and Didi are demonstrating, the ways in which top tech names are emerging from three years of regulatory shocks offers intriguing counterprogramming as the property sector continues to stumble.

Huawei alone is causing big ripples among Western tech communities who assumed US export controls curbing access to chip supplies had sidelined China Inc. Huawei’s 7-nanometer chip, which powers the smartphone’s processor, was designed in-house and manufactured by the mainland’s top chip vendor, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC).

While there are questions about whether Huawei’s 5G capabilities match Apple’s, the 7-nanometer chip “demonstrates the technical progress China’s semiconductor industry has been able to make without Extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) tools,” says Dan Hutcheson, vice chair of TechInsights.

Huawei’s exhibit dominated this year’s Mobile World Congress held in Barcelona. Image: Facebook

Significantly, Hutcheson says, the componentry used for Huawei’s Mate 60 Pro showcases the progress of Xi’s signature “Made in China 2025” plan. It aims to dominate everything from semiconductors to electric vehicles to renewable energy to artificial intelligence to biotechnology to aviation.

In part, Huawei’s success “does signify” that Beijing’s tech subsidies are gaining traction, says analyst Hanna Dohmen at the Washington-based Center for Security and Emerging Technology. Without the role of state-backed SMIC, Huawei’s feat would’ve been much harder to pull off.

Yet Huawei is reminding US President Joe Biden’s White House, which this week doubled down on restricting access to cutting-edge tech including semiconductors and chipmaking gear, that China Inc has the wherewithal to navigate around sanctions.

Didi, meanwhile, is demonstrating in other ways how China’s most innovative tech platforms are shifting into higher gear. Xi’s reform team would be wise to lean into these promising case studies, implementing reforms to ensure they’re more the norm than the exception.

Follow William Pesek on X, formerly Twitter, at @WilliamPesek

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AI closer than ever to passing Turing test for ‘intelligence’

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American computer scientist Alan Turing put forth an experimental approach to the question of” can machines think” in 1950. After five minutes of questioning, he suggested that if a human couldn’t tell whether they were speaking to an artificially intelligent ( AI ) machine or another human, this would prove that AI has intelligence similar to that of humans.

Despite the fact that AI systems never quite passed Turing’s exam during his career, he hypothesized that

It will be possible to program computers to enjoy the imitation activity so well in around fifty years that an average interrogator won’t have more than 70 % of making the correct identification after five minutes of questioning.

More than 70 times after Turing’s plan, no AI has been able to pass the test by meeting the precise requirements he specified. However, a few devices have come very close, as some headlines reflect.

Three big language versions, including GPT – 4( the AI technologies behind ChatGPT ), were tested in a recent study. The members conversed with either another individual or an AI system for two days. The AI was instructed to correct minor spelling errors and to stop if the developer became very intense.

The AI did a great job of deceiving the testing with this suggestion. Testers could only accurately guess whether they were speaking to an AI system 60 % of the time when paired with an artificial intelligence ( AI ) bot.

We might see AI go Turing’s unique test within the next few years given the quick advancements made in the design of natural language processing methods.

But is mimicking people actually a good way to gauge intelligence? If no, what other metrics could we use to assess the skills of AI?

The Turing test’s restrictions

Although a program passing the Turing test provides us with some indication that it is clever, this test does not represent intelligence in its entirety. It can result in” false negatives ,” which is one issue.

The huge language models of today are frequently made to quickly state that they are not human. For instance, ChatGPT frequently begins its response when you ask it a problem with the word” as an AI language type.” This type of programming may overturn the Turing test’s underlying capability, even if AI systems had it.

A computer screen displays the ChatGPT software from OpenAI. Asia Times Files / Getty Images

Additionally, the test runs the risk of some” false positive.” A system was theoretically move the Turing test just by being hard-coded with a human-like response to any potential input, as philosopher Ned Block noted in an article from 1981.

Beyond that, the Turing exam focuses specifically on individual consciousness. An expert investigator will be able to identify a job where AIs and humans perform differently if AI consciousness differs from that of humans.

Regarding this issue, Turing penned:

This is a very strong criticism, but at least we can say that it doesn’t need to bother us if it can be built to perform the emulation game well.

In other words, while passing the Turing check indicates that a program is clever, failing it does not indicate that it is not intelligent.

Furthermore, the test does not accurately reflect whether AIs are conscious, capable of experiencing pleasure and pain, or possess spiritual significance. Some cognitive scientists believe that having a working memory, higher-order thoughts, the capacity to consider one’s environment, and the ability to model how one moves their body around it are all components of consciousness.

The issue of whether or not AI systems possess these capabilities is not addressed by the Turing check.

AI’s expanding skills

A particular logic is the foundation of the Turing check. In other words, since humans are clever, anything that can successfully mimic humans is probably smart.

However, this concept offers no insight into the nature of knowledge. Thinking more analytically about what intellect is is a different way to assess AI’s intelligence.

Now, there isn’t a single test that you definitively assess either people or artificial intelligence.

In its broadest sense, knowledge is the capacity to accomplish a variety of objectives in various contexts. More brilliant systems are those that can accomplish more objectives across more environments.

Therefore, evaluating the performance of general-purpose AI techniques across a range of responsibilities is the best way to keep track of developments in their design. Scientists working on machine learning have created a number of measures for this.

A standard measuring effectiveness on multiple choice tests across a variety of college-level academic subjects, GPT-4, for instance, was able to correctly answer 86 % of queries in massive multitask vocabulary understanding.

It also performed well in AgentBench, a tool that assesses how well an agent behaves by, for instance, browsing the internet, making online purchases, and playing video games.

Is the Darwin test however applicable today?

The Turing evaluation is a check of artificial intelligence’s capacity to mimic human behavior. The ability of huge language models to move the Turing test is now being demonstrated by the fact that they are skilled imitators. But emulation and brains are not the same thing.

There are as many different types of knowledge as there are objectives. Monitoring AI’s development of a variety of crucial features is the best way to comprehend its knowledge.

When it comes to the issue of whether AI is clever, it’s crucial that we don’t maintain” changing the goalposts.” Reviewers of the idea of AI brains are continually discovering new tasks that AI systems may struggle to finish, only to discover that they have jumped over yet another obstacle because AI’s capabilities are rapidly improving.

The key issue in this situation is not whether AI systems are smart, but rather, more specifically, what types of intelligence they might possess.

Cameron Domenico Kirk – Giannini, Assistant Professor of Philosophy at Rutgers University, and Simon Goldstein, Associate Professor at the Dianoia Institute of theory at Australian Catholic University

Under a Creative Commons license, this essay has been republished from The Conversation. Read the article in its entirety.

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Will US, Russia prevent or goad a wider Gaza war?

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Henry Kissinger flew to Moscow on October 21, 1973, during the Yom Kippur War. Because Adolph Dubs, the Charge d’Affaires for the US Embassy, was in Kissinger’s Moscow workplace when he went straight to the Kremlin, I can clearly recall his entrance there. & nbsp,

Dubs wasn’t briefed or invited. ( Dubs later served as the US ambassador to Afghanistan, where he was abducted and killed in 1979. ) Before the Soviets took any military action in support of Egypt, Kissinger’s goal was to speak with them. Washington was concerned that the Russians might attack Israel’s makes in the Sinai with nuclear arms. & nbsp,

A few days afterwards, I boarded a commercial flight from the Soviet Union to Kiev. I got off the plane, which was parked a ways from the terminal, along with the other people, and the aircraft officials told us to rush on the tarmac. For us to see, the Russians put on a military show to demonstrate how the Soviet Union was preparing for military action. I informed the British embassy in Kiev of that right away.

On the eastern part of the Suez Canal, on 100 kilometers from Cairo, Israel had surrounded Egypt’s Third Army by October 24. I discovered this by listening to the VOA on my portable radio radio. While American broadcasts were hampered, Communist clogging at the time was not very effective.

US troops were stationed at DEFCON 3 on October 25, including the Sixth Fleet, Continental Air Defense Command, European Command. Between January and May 1974, Kissinger continued his” bird geopolitics,” putting an end to the conflict.

Will the major power therefore participate seriously in the ongoing Gaza conflict? Anthony Blinken, the secretary of state, has previously visited Israel, and Lloyd Austin has also visited Jerusalem once more. Since no British leader has ever visited Israel during preceding wars and conflicts, President Joe Biden is scheduled to arrive in Israel this year. & nbsp,

Both the Russians and the Chinese have now requested a cease-fire. A & nbsp, a second carrier task force( USS Eisenhower ) is en route, and the US has deployed an aircraft carrier mission( the USS Ford ) in the eastern Mediterranean. & nbsp,

Although Washington is silent about where they will be based, the US is also increasing its airpower in the area by committing A-10 surface attack aircraft and F-15Es. & nbsp,

A – 10s are on a battle goal over Syria.

If the US needs to act against Hezbollah in Lebanon, its stand in Jordan, Iraq, and Syria would be useful. According to news reports reportedly from trustworthy sources, the US persuaded Israel to refrain from attacking Hezbollah after it attacked Israel, telling Israel that the United States had stand up for Israel in its defense.

The US Air Force is sending the A-10, a powerful ground invasion aircraft, to the boneyard on the grounds that it is no longer important. Unfortunately, if the task is to clean out Hezbollah weapon foundations, it is the ideal aircraft.

One major problem is that Russia and the US are at odds over Ukraine, and neither country is really discussing the Ukraine problem with the other. It is more challenging for both major powers to intervene to quiet the Middle East before the war breaks out because neither atomic power is actively involved. & nbsp,

This is unfortunate for Russia in particular because, should the war break out, Syria— where the Russians have naval and air outposts— will serve as a battlefield. To prevent Egyptian rockets from entering Syria from Hezbollah, the Israelis have now half bombed the airport runways in Damascus and Aleppo. Israel thinks Iran is attempting to provide long-range precision missiles that will be fired at Israel’s defence facilities and important government buildings. & nbsp,

Israel has made it clear that it intends to eliminate Hamas in Gaza. Perhaps because Israel second wants to try and save as many hostages as it can, it has yet to start a earth operation in support of that goal. ( The number of victims that are still alive and under Hamas’ control is unsure. ) & nbsp,

The US is supporting Israel’s effort to free Gaza from Hamas’ rule. Although the launch of at least 40 US residents who were taken prisoner in Gaza is the US’s top priority, it is unclear how long it will help the Israeli operation. Hamas has no supported Iran’s state that the victims will be released if Israel stops bombing Gaza.

Over 150 Israeli citizens were abducted by Hamas jihadists, who then transported them again to Gaza. Screengrab / NDTV image

The world is waiting to see how Israel handles the prisoner situation and whether it launches an offensive against Gaza on the ground.

There is no chance of conversations with Hamas by the major powers, unlike in 1973. Some, like Egypt, have attempted to design humanitarian corridors for Gazan non-combatants, but it is difficult to tell soldiers apart from civilians. & nbsp,

Since starting a war may give Israel the justification it needs to destroy Iran’s nuclear services and its long-range missile sites, the Iranians appear to want to lower their profile. Local stress against Hezbollah is increasing in Lebanon as a result of the potential for war, which may ultimately lead to the demise of an already shaky Palestinian state.

It is difficult to say whether the war will continue or no. If Russia chooses to do so, it is quiet down the Iranians. As it may have done with Hezbollah, the US does preserve Israel’s attention on the Gaza issue. It’s a rush and observe circumstance.

The Near East Subcommittee of the United States’ team director was Stephen Bryen.
As a lieutenant director of security, the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and nbsp
is currently a senior fellow at Yorktown Institute and the & nbsp, Center for Security Policy.

His Substack, Weapons, and Strategy was the original subject of this article & nbsp. & nbsp, Asia Times is republishing it with their consent.

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