‘Tactical move’: China’s WTO gambit over US tariffs more about optics than outcomes

By:
On:
In: Asia

SHIFTING Techniques

Experts claim that China’s most recent reply to Trump’s taxes is a calculated change from its strategy in 2018, when Beijing imposed punitive tariffs after Washington fired the first shot.

A full-blown business battle ensued, hurting consumers and businesses in and beyond the country’s leading two economy, with its influence still lingering now.

This day, China has held off, although officials have warned that” related measures” will be taken to protect the country’s rights and interests.

Roberts from the Atlantic Council stated that Beijing is attempting to avoid a clear intensification with the US, especially given that it struggles with local monetary issues like poor consumer spending and concerns about local debt.

Imports and investment is only spur economic growth, according to Roberts, and I believe that this is a sign that China does not want this to increase further. They aren’t ready to engage in a cool conflict with the US at this time.

According to Olson of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, going down the WTO path and halting retribution is a “tactical shift” that allows China to determine how Trump’s tariffs affect Canada and Mexico.

According to researchers, it also leaves Beijing with some room to negotiate a deal with Trump while also preventing the worst US taxes.

Weeks before Trump took office, he had what he described as a “good, friendly” telephone contact with Xi, who the businessman-turned-president invited to his opening.

When asked if he could reach a deal with China over fair business practices, Trump said in an interview with Fox News on January 23 that he could do so. The US leader then followed up by saying he would “rather not” use tariffs against China, but called it ( tariffs ) a” tremendous power”.

Trump said in a statement to reporters at the Oval Office on February 3 that the proposed 10 % blanket tariffs on Chinese goods would only be” an opening salvo.”

” If we can’t create a bargain with China, then the taxes would be very, very substantial”, he said.

In light of this, watch carefully what Trump and Xi will be having in store for the upcoming meeting.

Continue Reading

India vows to avoid protectionist signals on trade

By:
On:
In: Asia

NEW DELHI: India does not want to offer any indication that it is mercantilist, the best official in the banking department said, after slashing buy duties on high-end motorcycles, amid US President Donald Trump’s moves on tariffs. Trump sparked a trade war by imposing massive taxes on Canada, Mexico, andContinue Reading

Asian stocks dive as Trump tariffs trigger trade war fears

By:
On:
In: Asia

INVESTORS “FEEL JOLT” Taipei dropped more than 3 % on the first day of trading since China’s DeepSeek unveiled a less expensive artificial intelligence platform to compete with US tech giants, including device titan and market-heavyweight TSMC. Buyers may also experience the jitter as businesses adjust to a decision thatContinue Reading

Mongolian sumo wrestler appointed grand champion

By:
On:
In: Asia
10 days before
Alex Loftus

BBC News

AFP/ Getty Images Hoshoryu, topless and in ceremonial dress from the waist down, with his arm raised. A crowd is in the background AFP/ Getty Images

A Mongolian weightlifting fighter has been elevated to the highest position in a meeting held on Friday.

Hoshoryu, true name Sugarragchaa Byambasuren, became the 74th yokozuna, or grand hero, after winning a big event last month.

The boxer must not only achieve excellent having success, but also demonstrate good conduct, and have their qualifications evaluated by a panel of judges.

Hoshoryu’s brother Asashoryu, a previous yokozuna who was known as the poor boy of weightlifting, was forced to quit the game in 2010 after breaking a man’s head in a drunken fight outside a bar.

However, Hoshoryu has already indicated that he wants to follow a different way than his brother, whose wedding was held 22 years previously to the present.

” I want to work effectively as a yokozuna and would my best”, he said.

AFP/ Getty Images Hoshoryu, topless and in ceremonial dress from the waist down, crouched with two other wrestlers either side of himAFP/ Getty Images

Around 3,500 fans watched the 25-year-old perform a number of festivals for his new name at the Meiji Shine in Tokyo.

He was handed a light cord buckle worn by yokozuna, which he put on for his ring-entering service.

He clapped his hands, stamped his foot, and sat in a small squat for a few days as the audience applauded.

” I practised a lot but I was still more frightened than I expected”, he said.

” I think I did it properly though”.

AFP/ Getty Images Hoshoryu, topless and in ceremonial dress from the waist down, stamping with a huge Japanese shrine behind. Other wrestlers sit cross-legged nearby and seated audiences are seen in the far left and right of the pictureAFP/ Getty Images

A yokozuna is expected to withdraw if their level of sumo falls, unlike various ranks, and cannot be demoted.

Many wrestlers can keep the rank at any one time, but Hoshoryu will stand out after Terunofuji, the 34-year-old grand champion, made the announcement earlier this month.

His interview, for the first time in more than 30 decades, leaves the game with no great champion.

Sumo has been dominated by Peoples for the past 25 times.

Six of the seven athletes who were promoted to yokozuna have been from the Asian nation since the turn of the century.

Japan’s only new champion during that period, Kisenosato, held the rank for less than two years.

” Peoples do so well because their regional wrestling type, Bokh, is quite comparable”, Rob Ó Néill, chairman of the British Sumo Federation, told the BBC.

In Bokh, combatants rely on foot washes, which are legitimate in sumo but were unusual until the influx of Mongolian fighters turned specialist.

” It was like a kickboxer fighting a boxer”, Mr Ó Néill said.

Although the Chinese soldiers have improved their ability to defend these maneuvers, they are a fundamental component of Mongolian fighting idea in a way that they are not in Japan.

Sumo is a very classic game that requires practice.

The Mongolians ‘ success is also attained by their early wrestling training.

” They’re also absolutely huge people”, Mr Ó Néill added.

Unlike additional combat sports, expert weightlifting does not have weight classes.

To be a professional, soldiers must eat, sleep and educate with one another in a type of education house called a solid.

The Japan Sumo Association has approved about 40 horses, and there are now about 40.

” It’s their entire way of life from when they join to when they retire”, Rob said.

Franchises serving chanko, a type of dish eaten in large amounts by the athletes, are often opened by previous fighters near stables.

Since Japan is the only nation with a professional sumo wrestler, the majority of the fighters are self-taught. Each can simply teach one foreign wrestler.

The success of the men’s aspiring Sumo World Championships, which fields competition from nearly 90 countries, is invited to join a firm.

Continue Reading

Uyghurs doing OK, says police chief

By:
On:
In: South-East Asia

PUBLISHED: 30 Jan 2025 at 05: 09

Kittharath: No reports emerge
Kittharath: No accounts come

National authorities chief Pol Gen Kittharath Punpetch has defended the treatment of imprisoned Uyghurs in Bangkok, arguing that claims would have been made in media reports decades ago if their care had been weak.

Sen Angkhana Neelapaijit’s request that authorities allow a Senate committee to attend the imprisoned Uyghurs was the subject of Pol Gen Kittharath’s response on Wednesday after being questioned about their existing conditions.

As of now, 43 are incarcerated at the Immigration Bureau ( IB ) headquarters in Soi Suan Phlu in Yannawa district. Five more people are currently incarcerated and facing criminal charges.

Sen Angkhana, director of the Senate committee on social growth, public participation, individual rights and consumer safety, on Wednesday expressed concerns shared by human rights organisations that the Uyghur group may face danger if they are sent back to China.

Despite the government’s denunciation, some studies have surfaced that such actions are taking place.

She said that amid discussion, the Prayut Chan-o-cha state returned 109 Rohingya people held at immigration detention facilities across Thailand in 2013 to China at Beijing’s demand, and their death remained unknown.

The commission had tried to visit the prisoners, without achievement. They had been informed that a Uyghur was on a hunger strike while another individual passed away last month. Another patient is in a clinic and is reportedly sick.

The committee is concerned that the prisoners may not have had food for a while, especially the one who is holding a hunger strike. The International Red Cross should explore the prisoners and offer assistance on repatriation, according to the council.

In reply, Pol Gen Kittharath said on Wednesday that since for things fall under his control, they should be brought up with IB key Pol Lt Gen Panumart Boonyalak immediately.

He claimed that the IB was even willing to improve confinement services, including ensuring proper nutrition and providing training.

” They have been detained for 10 years. The data would have been released a long time ago if they hadn’t been taken care of properly, he said.

He claimed that the Royal Thai Police had not received any instructions or instructions from the government regarding their potential resettlement to China.

According to Pol Gen. Kittharath, the Immigration Act requires that immigrants who enter the country illegally file their cases.

Detention treatments may also adhere to the rule of law and human rights principles.

He reaffirmed that appropriate measures are in place to safeguard and uphold inmates ‘ right.

Angkhana: Visit fast

Angkhana: Visit fast

Continue Reading

New START talks as a path to Ukraine peace – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia, World

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to meet with Donald Trump to discuss&nbsp, ending the Ukrainian conflict&nbsp, and&nbsp, resuming arms control talks &nbsp, after the American leader&nbsp, told the Davos elite&nbsp, last week that he’d like to do both with his Russian counterpart as soon as possible.

Since the New START will disappear in February 2026, but the negotiation process has been halted since 2023, their mention of resuming hands power discussions is important. Here, here, and here are context briefings on the subject.

To put it simply, the balance of nuclear and related forces ( like delivery systems ) between Russia and the US, the two nations with the most significant arsenals by far, is a big factor in global strategic stability.

By the time the Old Cold War was over, they realized how harmful and materially burdensome such programs were and agreed to limited cuts and checking measures.

This helped them overcome their security ambiguity, which refers to one side’s defensively intended moves ( such as building nukes for deterrence ) being perceived by their rival as offensively intended ( such as preparing for an overwhelming first strike ) and thus triggering an escalation cycle.

Their security problem returned, though, according to NATO’s east expansion. With their substitute conflict in Ukraine, it then advanced to a new risky stage, which could get worse if the New START expires without a successor.

Trump made the decision to resume the nuclear talks with Russia and China, which he claimed were on the verge of success before the 2020 election, which is why he brought this up during his video conference at Davos.

To be sure, he might have exaggerated the chances of coming to a deal had he won in the past, especially since China was reluctant to do it and Russia demanded ( as Peskov did ) British and French nuclear cuts, as well ( as Peskov did ).

The point of this explanation is to demonstrate that resuming US-Russian discussions on arms control may speed up the Russian peace process pending the outcome of the latter, which was encourage reciprocal compromises in this regard.

It can only be speculated what form that could take, but some of the proposals at the end of this analysis&nbsp, here &nbsp, and the one that was elaborated on&nbsp, here &nbsp, could be in the cards if both sides have the political will.

The need to restart arms control discussions is more serious than ever, not just because the US-Russian safety conflict recently reached a dangerous juncture and because New START has already expired, but also because new weapons systems have been developed and deployed, such as Russian hypersonic Oreshniks.

A new international arms race may soon start, and given how these munitions is be&nbsp, comparable in power to nukes but without the radiation, it’s just a matter of time before the US and others catch up.

This potential rivalry wouldn’t really be between the US and Russia like it used to be, but it would almost certainly include all additional nuclear power as well as some non-nuclear says like Iran and others as well. Due to the hyper-proliferation of systems since the end of the Old Cold War.

Another important nuclear and/or missile forces can only be brought on board through a multilateral agreement, with a US-Russian cope at its core, to agree to reduce these weapons and stop others from obtaining them.

In reality, they may agree to accept UN Security Council sanctions against any non-signatory state who is formally accused of developing or using these weapons in secret, as well as against any signatory who is formally accused of stockpiling more of these weapons than agreed upon.

What is essentially being proposed in a new global security architecture, which calls for the contribution of all key people, is essentially the non-proliferation of cutting-edge non-nuclear arms.

There is still a long way to go before anything of the type is agreed to at the suggested level, which includes the delicate nitty-gritty details of monitoring mechanisms, but it is in every responsible nuclear and missile energy’s best interests to see this happen. This includes the delicate nitty-gritty details of monitoring mechanisms.

The only way to get there is to end the Russian conflict as quickly as possible through a number of pragmatist mutually agreeable agreements in order for the US-Russian core of the world proper protection system to work on this front.

This&nbsp, article&nbsp, was first published on Andrew Korybko’s Substack and is republished with kind consent. Become an Andrew Korybko Newsletter subscriber&nbsp, below.

Continue Reading

Will Trump go down as a great or awful president? – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

Political “greatness” is a hard thing to determine, although some people have tried.

One of the accepted theories is that it is necessary for a president to face significant challenges, meet them by altering how the US operates, institutionalize those changes in a way that has a lasting impact, and persuade the American people to support them by unifying ( or at least coalescing ) behind the president’s leadership.

Research on the role of US president has attempted to establish how past presidents ‘ positions stack up against those of their predecessors. There is general agreement that the United States has had three truly great presidents – George Washington ( 1789-1797 ), Abraham Lincoln ( 1861-1865 ), and Franklin Delano Roosevelt ( 1933-1945 ) – and several truly terrible presidents – including Warren G Harding ( 1921-1923 ), James Buchanan ( 1857-1861 ) and Franklin Pierce ( 1853-1857 ).

But what distinguishes these presidents as great or bad? These examinations are consistent with the intensity of the problems that these leaders encountered during their terms in office and how they successfully overcame them.

George Washington had to work together to form a new country out of the 13 freshly united states, creating a nation that still stands.

Lincoln had to deal with the independence of the southern says, the Civil War, and the difficulty of putting an end to slavery. He won the war, bringing the country together, and finally put an end to the most controversial matter the country has ever encountered ( or at least its change from slavery to racism and segregation ).

FDR participated in both the Second World War and the Great Depression. He also altered the US government, giving birth to the modern-liberal condition.

All three faced philosophical problems to the government’s very existence, and they succeeded in overcoming them. By the end of their administration, all three had finally been acknowledged as having influenced the public to their opinions.

As for the “terrible” leaders, they usually preceded the fantastic people, facing similar problems and failing to meet them. Many of the “middle” leaders never had to face significant difficulties or were able to overcome them by utilizing the country’s existing power and institutions without having to transform the nation.

So where does Trump fall in this mythology? His previous name, generally speaking, is difficult to define as “great”. In fact, according to some political positions, he is considered the worst president in history.

He did implement some scheme adjustments that his supporters liked, but he was able to bring about lasting change or unite the nation in support of his leadership. Reelection battle and his son Joe Biden’s instant reform of many of his policies provide evidence of this, which demonstrates that Trump had not been able to engender lasting change.

Mount Rushmore in South Dakota features the heads of presidents George Washington, Thomas Jefferson and Theodore Roosevelt.
President George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, and Theodore Roosevelt are among the guests at Mount Rushmore in South Dakota. Photo: Guido Vermeulen-Perdaen / Shutterstock via The Talk

The Covid-19 pandemic and the country’s huge polarization provided the opportunity, but neither of these events led to unifying victories for Trump’s legacy.

Trump largely responded to the epidemic with” Operation Warp Speed,” a public-private collaboration that accelerated the development of vaccinations for the pandemic. However, he downplayed vaccines as a cure for the disease in his later speeches and tweets, stoking disagreement over how to address the issue, causing magnetization and stoking vaccine skepticism.

The US’s largest issue that has occurred over the past 20 years has undoubtedly been its increasing degree of magnetization, which has increased steadily since the mid-1990s. President Obama, Biden, and George W. Bush have all failed to stop the country’s growth, making it the most significant domestic threat to legal democracy.

Trump may be able to stop this, despite being generally seen as a divided and polarizing number.

One of Trump’s greatest advantages is that he has assembled a group of incredibly devoted and devoted followers who can rely on his selections. His supporters appear to be enthusiastic about Trump and his individual tone, which have given him great latitude to pursue his goals with legislation in a variety of fields. His supporters care a lot about issues like immigration and the business, and he has already taken steps to satisfy them in these areas.

His day-one actions&nbsp, to mark the border&nbsp, and boost arrests will&nbsp, meet some Republicans, &nbsp, and research indicates that views of the economy are &nbsp, greatly biased by politics. Trump’s mere election will likely encourage Republicans ‘ conviction that the business is performing well.

Trump’s biggest challenge is in getting the almost two-thirds of Americans who don’t consistently vote Republican on table. Because of his supporters ‘ devotion, he is likely to keep them backing whatever cause he advocates for in the majority of policy sections. He frequently makes changes in what he stands for and supports policies that his supporters used to support without experiencing reaction.

He has changed, for instance, from opposing the US government’s restrictions on the social media network Twitter to delaying the US’s. With a little maneuvering in the social environment, he might be able to win more supporters among Americans.

You Trump expand his assistance?

If Trump were to take action on issues that already have widespread public support, such as abortion, gun control, and the provincial part in healthcare, he would likely be able to maintain his devoted following while gaining support from earlier hostile groups.

The majority of people prefer Democratic policies on these subjects, so Trump may offer to work with Democrats to create nonpartisan policy that previous presidents had just dreams about.

Republican supporters may not be able to cast ballots against their own president, who frequently might laugh at working with Democrats to succeed. Democrats are but defeated that they might seize every chance they are given to enhance their goals, which is against the customary tendency to attempt to deny a sitting Republican president any parliamentary success.

In this way, Trump may achieve something that no previous leader has accomplished in the last 30 times: bipartisan support for significant congressional legislation that would tackle issues that Americans consider crucial. This may end the polarization circular and provide the first political pact in US history in decades.

It is difficult to understand how Trump achieves his purpose of being viewed as “great” if this situation is left open and a new global turmoil may arise. The course of four years will show.

David Andersen is an associate professor in US politicians, Durham University

The Conversation has republished this essay under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.

Continue Reading

DeepSeek’s shock in wider US vs China perspective – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

What this second says about the world’s two biggest markets is what makes the DeepSeek-driven property judgment most intriguing.

To supply with the clear, neither Donald Trump’s 2017-2021 trade conflict nor Joe Biden’s more precise limits these last four years halted Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s technology ambitions. Although there are a few speed bumps occasionally, Xi’s” Made in China 2025″ feast is undoubtedly its biggest public relations triumph.

The most positive headlines Xi’s market has had in a while came from the shockwaves that Foreign artificial intelligence company DeepSeek sent through international markets.

Its claim of a cost-effective AI type using less-advanced cards has America’s Nvidia and French huge ASML&nbsp, reeling. Additionally, it removed the burden of Silicon Valley executives who were warming up to US President Trump. Immediately, US tech supremacy is in question as often before.

DeepSeek’s appearance also managed to confine Trump’s great AI instant below the fold. On January 21, Trump stood with OpenAI’s Sam Altman, &nbsp, SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son and Oracle’s Larry Ellison to consider an AI triumph for America. The US$ 5 billion Stargate AI infrastructure project seems to be outdated and a probable huge boondoggle at this point.

However, it’s the financial lessons that stand out the most. In China, Xi’s victory may give the country an even stronger incentive to make more strides toward fostering confidence in the country’s economy. This is a stark warning for Trump that tariffs won’t revive US digital technology in ways that equalize the China danger; only daring policy choices you accomplish that.

New data revealed that China’s stock activity surprisingly decreased in January, ending three months of expansion at the same time DeepSeek was sputtering global markets.

China’s standard purchasing managers ‘ score slid to 49.1. The non-manufacturing PMI test, which includes companies and design, slowed to 50.2 from 52.2 in December. Industrial profits, meanwhile, are now down for three consecutive years, dropping 3.3 % in 2024 alone.

According to Zichuan Huang, an economist for China at Capital Economics,” the disheartening PMI data highlights the challenge that policymakers face in sustaining a sustained treatment in growth.” China is struggling as Trump considers taxes and intensifying challenges, Huang said, despite hints that were made in late 2024 that trigger attempts were taking off.

Many pre-existing conditions at home are bringing in new risks from abroad. China’s home crisis resulted in the longest negative run since the 1997-98 Asian problems. Poor family demand and&nbsp, near-record&nbsp, children poverty are slamming confidence.

” To even have a chance to boost prices and confidence”, says Hui Shan, chief China scholar at Goldman Sachs, Beijing has install” a big stimulus from the state” to generate a real “turning stage”.

Zhiwei Zhang, president of Pinpoint Asset Management, notes that “part of the decline may be expected to weaker outside requirement, as the new import orders score dropped to its lowest level since March last time.”

If Trump fulfills his threats to impose 60 % tariffs on all domestic goods, things could start to get worse. Trump’s implementation of trade restrictions has been much slower than anticipated by international investors.

According to analysts at Singapore-based UOB Global Economics &amp, Markets Research,” a lot of what Trump pledged to do was carried out on day one with the absence of concrete tariff measures are a significant relief.” ” There is, after all, another four years of Trump to go”.

These dangers only make Xi’s team’s task more pressing to stabilize China’s financial system. Immediate priorities include repairing a weak property sector fueling deflation, building more vibrant capital markets, reducing youth unemployment, addressing runaway local government debt, curbing the dominance of state-owned enterprises and increasing transparency.

Team Xi also must create a vibrant network of social&nbsp, safety&nbsp, nets&nbsp, to encourage consumption over saving. Last week, Xi’s government intensified efforts to support China’s volatile stock markets. That included encouraging mainland households to buy more shares and encouraging pensions and mutual funds to make more domestic stock investments.

According to Wu Qing, the head of the China Securities Regulatory Commission,” This means that at least several hundred billion yuan of long-term funds will be added to A-shares every year.”

Such steps are only necessary, though, because Team Xi has been too slow to address the economy’s pre-existing conditions. In financial circles, is it a hot button whether Beijing should use a yuan-sheen deflation strategy to boost growth? &nbsp,

The pros are obvious. Exports, which were a major factor in China’s 5 % growth in 2024, would be further boosted by a weaker exchange rate. In December alone, overseas shipments jumped 10.7 % year on year.

However, the disadvantages prevent Team Xi from choosing the less effective yuan route. For one thing, it might make it more difficult for highly indebted property developers to pay off offshore bonds. That would increase&nbsp, default&nbsp, risks &nbsp, in Asia’s biggest economy. Seeing# ChinaEvergrande or# ChinaVanke&nbsp, trending again is the last thing Xi’s Communist Party needs in 2025.

Another is that deleveraging efforts could be wasted due to the monetary easing required to lower the yuan. Beijing has made significant strides over the past few years in reducing China’s financial woes and raising the standard of its gross domestic product. As a result, Xi and Premier Li Qiang have been reluctant to let the People’s Bank of China ease more assertively, even as deflation deepens.

The yuan’s use in trade and finance might be Xi’s biggest reform accomplishment over the past dozen years. In 2016, China won a place for the yuan in the International Monetary Fund’s” special drawing rights” basket, joining the dollar, yen, euro and pound. Since then, the currency’s use in trade and finance has soared. Excessive easing now might damage trust in the yuan, slowing its progression to reserve-currency status.

It also might trigger a broader&nbsp, Asian currency war&nbsp, that’s in no one’s best interest. Tokyo might be all-in on a much weaker yen, entice South Korea into the fray.

Memories of 2015 are clearly entering into Beijing’s equation. A destabilizing capital flight that still lingers among party bigwigs was caused by China’s decision to devalue the yuan by nearly 3 % ten years ago. Over the next year, Xi’s team had to draw down Beijing’s foreign exchange reserves by&nbsp, US$ 1 trillion&nbsp, to restore calm.

However, Trump World should also take a wake-up call about its top economic policy initiatives this week. A massive trade war, like that one in Exhibit A, might have worked better in 1985, when a select few industrialized nations had more economic power.

This same stuck-in-1985&nbsp, problem&nbsp, helps explain why Japan’s efforts since 2012 to increase competitiveness and rekindle innovation came up short. The enterprise, led by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, is largely about bringing back the trickle-down economics of the 1980s Ronald Reagan era.

Abe backed up his wager that monetary easing and currency depreciation would cause a rise in corporate profits and initiate a virtuous cycle. The intention was for boom stocks to spur CEOs on to fatten their paychecks, thereby boosting consumer spending and accelerating economic growth.

The plan for Japan was correct about the stock boom. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average reached its highest point last year thanks to aggressive Bank of Japan easing, a plunging yen, and some efforts to improve corporate governance.

Yet wages didn’t surge as hoped, ending the year on average or below the roughly 2.5 % inflation rate. Reaganomics is even less effective at raising living standards today than it was 40 years ago, according to all so-called Abenomics.

This is the way Trump 1.0 went, too. A$ 1.7 trillion tax cut, which primarily targeted the top 1 %, was the centerpiece of Trumponomics. More importantly, the maneuver made it more advantageous to reduce income inequality and put the national debt on track to reach the current$ 36 trillion level.

Now, Trump 2.0 is angling to make the$ 1&nbsp, trillion-plus tax cuts from his first term permanent while adding new ones to the books that will inevitably exacerbate Washington’s already serious debt woes.

The US net foreign investment position, or the difference between foreign assets owned by Americans and those owned abroad, is now nearly twice the size of the US gross domestic product. It’s negative$ 24&nbsp, trillion compared with negative$ 18&nbsp, trillion&nbsp, when Biden entered office in 2021.

A big dilemma now faces Trump: widen Washington’s investment imbalances or reduce its addiction to imports and capital inflows. For now, Trump’s new economic team is more interested in protecting the status quo than disruption.

Washington’s budget would be reliant on the savings of both Japanese and Chinese households as well as the world’s developing countries as more tax cuts are proposed. Trump’s tariffs and trade restrictions would increase US inflation and reduce domestic consumption.

Many economists believe that Trump should concentrate more on boosting domestic economic stoke. Biden, for all his policy missteps, paved the way for the US to compete with China more organically.

Biden’s 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, for example, deployed$ 300&nbsp, billion &nbsp, to strengthen domestic research and development. Biden took other steps to incentivize innovation, raise America’s semiconductor capabilities, improve infrastructure and increase productivity.

It was only a start, though. Despite his deregulation comments, Trump has not yet come up with a strategy to replace Biden’s tech upgrade policies.

As Trump prioritizes old-school tariffs, lower Federal Reserve interest rates and a weaker dollar, Xi’s China is engaged in a multi-trillion-dollar effort to lead the future of electric vehicles, semiconductors, renewable energy, robotics, biotechnology, aviation, high-speed rail and, of course, AI.

This last priority is now paying, and this has never before been a positive outcome for China. And serving as a wake-up call for both Xi’s party and Trump 2.0 that it’s time to raise their games.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

Continue Reading

Trump’s Ukraine peace plan looking like a non-starter – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

Donald Trump had promised to put an end to the Soviet aggression against Ukraine in the 24 days that he had promised. But Trump’s second month since his inauguration on January 20, 2025, has yet been a busy one regarding Ukraine.

Trump criticized his father Joe Biden of running a “government that has given unrestricted cash to the defense of international borders but refuses to support American borders” in his inauguration address, making just a passing and direct reference to Ukraine.

Trump threatened Russia with fees, taxes, and restrictions if his Russian counterpart doesn’t agree to a deal soon in a blog on his TruthSocial community. He reiterated this on January 23 in remarks made at the World Economic Forum in Davos, adding that he “really would like to be able to meet with President Putin.”

Cut out of Donald trump truth social post about Russia and Ukraine
Donald Trump/Truth Social

Trump’s candidate for government secretary, Scott Bessent, had previously backed Trump’s view during his Senate confirmation hearing on January 16. Bessent especially emphasized increasing sanctions against Russian crude companies” to levels that would take the Russian Federation to the table” in the same way as Trump.

Putin responded the following day, saying that Trump and he should actually talk about Ukraine and fuel prices. But this was much from a strong commitment to provide into discussions, and especially not with Ukraine.

Putin alluded to an October 2022 order by Ukraine’s leader, Volodymyr Zelensky, banning any agreements with the Kremlin after Russia fully annexed four parts of Ukraine. Since then, Zellensky has stated that all except him is covered by the decree, indicating that he won’t interfere with any direct conversations with Russia.

However, Putin is likely to remain playing for time. A ceasefire that stops the line of communication at the time of agreement will be the most good first step in a Trump-brokered package. Every day of fighting gives Putin more territorial gains because his forces are also advanceing on the ground in Ukraine.

Russian friends ‘ aid is showing no signs of waning, either. Few and far between as they may remain, China, Iran and North Korea have been important in sustaining the Kremlin’s war effort. Moscow has then ratified a comprehensive strategic agreement with Iran in addition to the one it signed with North Korea in June 2024.

However, the Russia-China no-limits association of 2022, more deepened in 2023, shows no signs of strengthening. Additionally, it’s unlikely that Putin is all too concerned about extra US sanctions given that Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko won a sixth consecutive term on January 26.

Zelensky, like Putin, may sing for day. Trump’s hazard of sanctions against Russia good indicates a US president’s feeling of frustration that Putin doesn’t seem to be willing to compromise. Russia may continue to expand its regional ties to eastern Ukraine, but it hasn’t made any proper strides.

War of attrition

Since September 2024, the US military has probably increased significantly, and Kyiv has likely been able to maintain its current protective efforts through 2025 as a result of commitments from European allies, including the UK.

Ukraine might not be able to build a major offensive, but it may still be able to keep Russia’s costs higher. On the field, these fees are estimated at 102 fatalities per square mile of Ukrainian place captured. Beyond the frontlines, Ukraine has likewise continued its aircraft battle against targets inside Russia, particularly the government’s oil facilities.

Trump won’t succeed in putting an end to the fighting in Ukraine, that is for sure. However, a significant distinction can be made between a peace and a lasting peace deal. And while a peace, at some point, may be in both Russia’s and Ukraine’s attention, green harmony is much more difficult to achieve.

Putin’s goal of a complete success poses the same challenges as Western reluctance to offer Ukraine reliable security guarantees.

At this point, it seems unlikely to be possible to join the NATO or join a western-led security power that may serve as a credible deterrent.

Without a doubt, it would be impossible for Europe to carry the 200 000 soldiers Zelensky had in mind for a implementation to Ukraine to ensure any offer with Putin. But a smaller power, led by the UK and France, may be achievable.

No one has blinked in Kyiv or Zelensky’s ongoing retention conflict, which continues to be waged by them in Kiev and Moscow. It is not clear but whether, and in which manner, Trump did bend the stability and how this may affect either side’s commitment to submit to his deal-making work.

Thus far, Trump’s moves are certainly a game-changer. This is the first major attempt to put an end to the battle in nearly three years of conflict, though. Whether Trump, and everyone else, have the mind and may persevere to ensure that this course will inevitably lead to a just and stable peace for Ukraine remains to be seen.

Stefan Wolff is professor of global surveillance, University of Birmingham

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original content.

Continue Reading

Putin’s obsession with total victory crimps Trump’s peace promise – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

Donald Trump has already refuted his claim that he will resolve the Ukraine issue within the first 24 hours of business.

Trump’s counselors have then acknowledged that the conflict in Ukraine can’t be easily negotiated, just as he once said he would fix the US medical problems quickly and then backtracked to saying “nobody knew that heath care was thus complicated.” Trump’s” skill of the offer” does not really work in the real world of conflict solution.

Trump’s original intention was to provide further military support to Ukraine to deter further Russian aggression. This may encourage it to bring up the topic of the board.

Stopping aid to Ukraine might be a different tactic to help it deal. Trump would demand that Ukraine surrender its territory and establish an 800-mile demilitarized buffer zone ( to be guarded by NATO or European troops ) once “peace talks” started.

Trump is friendly to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s claim that joining NATO poses a menace to Russian protection. Therefore, Ukraine would have to give up on aspired to actually join the local security bloc.

Russia, in turn, may get big restrictions pleasure, while a portion of the proceeds from&nbsp, tariffs&nbsp, on Russian energy imports would become allocated to&nbsp, Ukraine.

Trump’s peace plan was engineered by Russia-Ukraine special envoy Keith Kellogg ( a highly decorated three-star general ), who recently canceled an upcoming trip to Kyiv. Trump has already indicated that he wants to speak with Putin in order to “get the war over with.”

The biggest challenge is that Putin does not really want to make a deal, despite the plan’s numerous obstacles. Yes, in October, Russia was losing 1, 500 troops a day and the country was, and still is, struggling to recruit men.

With the onslaught of severe sanctions and being forced to spend tens of billions of dollars on defense rather than other government services, the Russian economy has had to deal with a lot.

All of this is irrelevant because Putin is so obsessed with Ukraine and her eventual victory. Russia might even be in a recession, as has been predicted in 2025, but that would still not be enough to force it to accept any compromise.

Putin categorically opposes Ukraine becoming a sovereign state. He either wants to control or destroy it. A weaker or nonexistent Ukraine would be a major blow to the United States ‘ position as a strongman in Russia, as well as a positive one for Putin’s legacy.

Unsurprisingly, Russia has already rejected the US’s unofficial suggestions, despite the fact that it has not yet seen an official statement on the subject. Putin favors serving as president during the war, and many Russians are willing to accept this new normal when they are under attack by oppression and inspired by patriotism.

Russia’s lack of compromise

Russia doesn’t think it needs to compromise. Putin is aware that he is much more determined than the West to defend Ukraine.

There are undoubtedly indications of fatigue in Europe for continuing to support Ukraine. In a YouGov poll of seven European countries ( France, Italy, Spain, Germany, the UK, Sweden and Denmark ), continuing support for Ukraine until Russia withdrew was found to be as low as 31 % on average, compared with around 40 % for encouraging a negotiated end to fighting, even if Ukraine lost territory.

In addition, lawmakers and the general public are exhausted in the US. Therefore, Congress, which is currently largely governed by the Republican party, may object to the provision of additional weapons to Ukraine.

In 2023, Republican opposition to Ukraine’s support already caused enormous delays. And while Republicans in Congress have been waning in favor of keeping the aid levels in Ukraine despite the Biden administration’s recent announcement of a new tranche of US$ 500 million, which is a portion of a total of$ 175 billion since the 2022 invasion.

This largely reflects the sentiments of the American public. In a Gallup poll conducted in December 2024, 48 % of people support US aiding Ukraine in regaining control of the land lost to Russia, marking the first time this percentage has fallen below the majority.

Support for Ukraine is also incredibly polar, with 74 % of Republicans and 30 % of Democrats wanting to end the conflict right away. Additionally, 67 % of Republicans think the US is doing too much.

Ultimately, it is likely there will be no peace deal any time soon because Trump does not really care about Ukraine, and doesn’t understand foreign policy. Adam Kinzinger, a former Republican congressman, recently claimed that Trump pursued foreign policy in the manner of a” three-year-old.”

Trump cares more about impressing Putin ( or being seen as a deal-maker ) than supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty. His vice-president, J. D. Vance, has been more direct about it, stating in 2022:” I gotta be honest with you, I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another”. This view could have a devastating effect on willingness, and commitment, to negotiate.

According to analysis by US historian Robert Kagan, without US aid, Ukraine will lose the war within the next 12-to-18 months. Yet, for every square mile Russia gains, it loses 40 men – a heavy price to pay ( Ukraine’s total area is 233, 100 square miles ).

The initial proclamations that Trump would resolve the Ukraine crisis in 24 hours were campaign bluster that showed little awareness of the conflict’s intrusibility and the difficulties of establishing a new administration.

A few weeks ago, Trump stated that part of his plan “is a surprise“. The surprise factor extends beyond the general public. Perhaps Trump has no idea what his next steps will be when it comes to putting an end to this conflict. And that could play perfectly into Putin’s hands.

Natasha Lindstaedt is professor in the department of government, University of Essex

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Continue Reading