The smart money has AI in its portfolio – Asia Times

With their most recent quarterly results, Microsoft and Alphabet, the parent company of Google, have sent a powerful message to investors: investments in artificial intelligence ( AI ) and cloud computing are producing remarkable returns. &nbsp,

The businesses exceeded Wall Street’s predictions, thanks in large part to the exponential rise of AI services, which has boosted cloud income. In late trading on April 25, this news caused a surge in their respective stock prices, with Alphabet rising as much as 17 % and Microsoft rising by 6.3 %. &nbsp,

Traders are confronted with the unquestionable necessity of technology, especially AI, in their investment portfolios as these technology giants continue to compete for supremacy in the AI space.

Every entrepreneur should think about incorporating technology, particularly AI, into their investment mix, given Microsoft and Alphabet’s superb efficiency. &nbsp,

Exceptional growth trajectory

The software industry’s unprecedented growth trajectory is exemplified by the surge in cloud revenue driven by Artificial services. &nbsp,

Microsoft’s Azure sky software reported a remarkable 50 % growth in revenue, driven by strong demand for AI and machine learning solutions. The system, with companies like Azure Machine Learning and Azure Cognitive Services, has empowered companies worldwide to utilize AI for various uses, from predictive analytics to natural language processing.

Use Azure AI to improve supply chain functions and increase customer relationship, driving efficiency and gaining aggressive benefits in their particular industries, companies like FedEx and Coca-Cola have done so.

Also, Alphabet’s Google Cloud Platform experienced substantial revenue expansion, with a large portion attributed to AI- associated offerings quite as AI- driven analytics and machine learning tools. These figures show the enormous industry possible for tech companies and the widespread implementation of AI technologies across all sectors.

Alphabet’s Program offers a collection of AI- driven solutions, including Google Cloud AI and TensorFlow, enabling organizations to harness the power of AI for data research, picture recognition and more.

Companies like Airbus and Spotify have benefited from Google Cloud AI to improve product recommendations and streamline manufacturing procedures, opening up fresh opportunities for growth and innovation.

Competitive advantage&nbsp,

Microsoft and Alphabet are battling it out for the top spot in the AI market, utilizing their strengths to gain a competitive edge. &nbsp,

The bold moves made by tech giants to cement their market positions and leadership are exemplified by Microsoft’s strategic partnership with startup OpenAI to challenge Google’s longstanding dominance in internet search.

As these businesses keep up their innovation and advance their AI capabilities, strengthening their positions as market leaders in the tech sector, giving them attractive investment opportunities worldwide.

For instance, Microsoft’s purchase of LinkedIn and GitHub has further strengthened its AI capabilities, enabling the integration of AI-driven features into these platforms to enhance user experiences and promote business growth.

Microsoft’s use of AI to deliver value to its users and stakeholders is just one example of how Microsoft is leveraging AI to create value.

Meanwhile, Alphabet’s DeepMind, a leading AI research lab acquired by Google in 2014, has made significant strides in AI research and development, with breakthroughs in areas such as reinforcement learning and natural language understanding. &nbsp,

AlphaGo, an AI-powered game that can play the board game Go at a level that is beyond the reach of artificial intelligence, is a work of art for DeepMind.

Diversification and resilience

Integrating technology, particularly AI, into investment portfolios provides diversification advantages and protects portfolios from technological disruptions. &nbsp,

Tech companies have shown resilience and adaptability in surviving tumultuous economic climates, making them strong long-term investment opportunities. &nbsp,

In the face of market uncertainty, investors who invested in tech stocks like Microsoft and Alphabet reap the rewards of their robust performance. &nbsp,

Additionally, exchange-traded funds ( ETFs ) and mutual funds that are AI-focused give investors access to a variety of businesses that are advancing AI innovation, enabling them to capitalize on AI’s transformative potential across a range of industries.

Thursday’s impressive earnings reports showcasing Microsoft and Alphabet’s triumphs, for me, demonstrate the indispensability of tech and AI in investment portfolios. &nbsp,

Investors who are serious about investing should take into account the opportunities the tech sector presents to maintain financial stability and resilience in an increasingly digitalized world as the pace of technological advancement increases.

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No limit to how low the yen will go – Asia Times

Who needs Las Vegas or Macau when betting on the yen’s potential lower is the best match anywhere in Tokyo?

It’s not where the&nbsp, Bank of Japan&nbsp, wanted to find itself this month as it mulled interest rate plan. That Governor Kazuo Ueda’s team did nothing on Friday ( April 26 ) was hardly surprising.

What was sudden, although, is Tokyo’s absence of urgency to end yen declines that danger upending economic interactions from Beijing to Washington.

In neighboring China, the dollar’s 10.6 % fall so far this year has Xi Jinping’s group mulling its individual choices.

Despite 5.3 % rise in the first quarter year on year, financial selling remain sweet, “pointing to weaker need”, says Carlos Casanova, scholar at Union Bancaire Privée. This suggests that regional consumption decreased in March in line with broad-based consumer price index drops.

China’s industrial output even continues to offend. This may suggest that production is not gaining as much from the continuous recovery in global trade as we had anticipated, according to Casanova, because of overcapacity constraints in key sectors, she says.

These overcapacity changes could exacerbate recession. No policy change did cause client costs to maintain more quickly than a weaker yuan. Does Xi and People’s Bank of China Governor&nbsp, Pan Gongsheng&nbsp, tilt toward a weaker rmb?

Xi’s inner sphere might interpret the dollar’s sharp decline as political include to create a more effective exchange rate that would increase exports and calm upward price pressures.

There would be just as some drawbacks as pros, though. As house developers struggle to pay off offshore loan, a weaker yuan could increase the risk of failures. It may hinder efforts to boost chinese confidence. Additionally, it might make fun of the US social creation as the November 5 election draws near.

This final risk is a huge one for Japan, also. An also weaker renminbi is sure to irritate politicians across the board despite Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s close ties to US President Joe Biden. Republicans devoted to Donald Trump are likely to find a common ground with Binden’s Democrats over the fall in Asian exchange rates.

Biden recently announced plans to impose new tariffs on imported Taiwanese steel and aluminum. Trump, of course, is previewing 60 % fees on all mainland products. He’s even talking about a 100 % tax on specific car imports, a&nbsp, gambit&nbsp, that Chinese CEOs fear had simply come for their vehicles, to.

Chinese officials are trying to pull off a challenging balancing act as these threats grow. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki claims to be “watching business movements with a great sense of urgency,” but his group also is monitoring the raise Japan is receiving from a poor yen.

Japan’s imports rose 7.3 % yr- on- season in March. Additionally, the country is experiencing an unheard-of increase in hospitality driven by international visitors who are yen-stripped.

However, Tokyo’s leaders are aware that the effects of a falling exchange rate could have a negative impact on the country. The hour news channels feature the receding yen. For homeowners, it’s smacking more of Chinese weakness in world lines than financial recovery.

World investors&nbsp, are grappling with a tantalizing dilemma. If” Japan is back”, as a Nikkei 225 Stock Index at 34- time highs suggests, why is the renminbi in freefall piping a 34- time low? And why has the BOJ lacked the will to restore near-zero costs since 1999?

On Friday, the BOJ doubled down on its do- little plan. Ueda &amp, Co held its benchmark policy rate at 0 %- 0.1 %. &nbsp, Merchants, in other words, have much reason to fear the BOJ, at least for now. And it seems a safe bet that the yen’s decline to 160 to the dollars will result in.

Despite the fact that the renminbi is at its lowest point in 34 years, global investors have every reason to believe the yen has overheated.

For one thing, it’s fueling inflation that’s affecting customer and business trust. For one thing, it’s a growing breeze for businesses that rely on the local market for their profits. Despite the hospitality wave, retailers and travel companies are struggling.

All this is breaking investment methods. As 2024 began, gamblers figured the biggest Japanese&nbsp, wage increases &nbsp, among union employees in more than 30 years would make a virtuous cycle of spending and business income.

They also affirmed their belief that the Federal Reserve in Washington did cut interest rates by at least five times this month, boosting the renminbi.

With each fresh batch of regular data, these expectations are waning. Rie Nishihara, a JPMorgan researcher, warns that gains in inflation-adjusted wages will essentially be a clean if the renminbi falls to 157 per buck.

The vast majority of work are provided by little and mid-sized businesses, but they are already hampered by rising import fees. The same goes for large corporations.

” The situation]with the yen ] has reached a level that needs to be corrected”, says Takeshi Niinami, head of the Japan Association of Corporate Executives.

Strategist Shusuke Yamada at BofA Securities Japan notes that the eerie silence from&nbsp, Tokyo policymakers&nbsp, is n’t going unnoticed in trading pits around the globe.

The BOJ should recognize that policy has been too indulgent, that the upcoming rate hike is immediate as it is in June, and that the terminal rate may be higher than the market had predicted, according to Yamada.

Some, though, doubt the Ministry of Finance is on the point of acting.

” The Bank tail will not be allowed to tickle the dog”, said Vishnu Varathan, planner at Mizuho Bank. The BOJ even is likely to adhere to its plan of “dovish restriction” when it comes to tweaking brief- term rates, he said.

Yet the danger is that “if the BOJ abstains from intermediate, the yen may experience more upward pressure”, says Eman AlAyyaf, CEO of EA Trading.

She adds that the BOJ wants to prevent a” sustained pressure from higher US interest rates” from causing a sharp upward trend in the yen at the same time.

Arguably, Ueda’s BOJ brought today’s dilemma on itself by&nbsp, slow- walking steps&nbsp, to exit quantitative easing ( QE ). Since April 2023, when Ueda took command, international markets have been primed for a tilt apart from QE, or zero costs.

Month after month, Ueda’s staff demurred. Then, as China’s market slows, the BOJ’s glass to restore scheme is narrowing. Japan’s prices changes are showing symptoms of restraint, too.

Tokyo’s core inflation rate, which excludes fresh food and energy, slowed to 1.8 % year on year in April from 2.9 % in March. Since September 2022, the raise was the smallest.

” The schedule of the next BOJ interest rate hike does get a little complicated as the latest&nbsp, Tokyo inflation&nbsp, data for April slowed down from the previous quarter and came in below anticipation”, says Kelvin Wong, scientist at OANDA.

It’s hardly helpful to hear on Thursday that the US’s economy may be slowing more than initially anticipated. US gross domestic product grew just 1.6 % year on year in the first quarter, well below all economists ‘ projections.

” This report was the worst of both worlds: economic growth is slowing and inflationary pressures are persisting”, says Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance.

Most economists still give the US the benefit of the doubt right now. The downshift may have masked otherwise solid&nbsp, economic momentum.

” The economy is at full employment, with unemployment steadfastly below 4 %, and growth remains close to the economy’s potential, with real GDP tracking close to 2 %”, says Dante DeAntonio, economist at Moody’s Analytics.

DeAntonio adds that “growth continues to surprise, and consumers are growing their spending. Businesses are also playing their part. Inflation remains the sole blemish. Although economic growth will not reach its full potential for a season, recession risks have decreased as the economy continues to be resilient.

The end result is that Asian central banks are now more perplexed than ever about the Fed’s policy outlook. The BOJ is Exhibit A, especially considering domestic economic conditions also refute the need for tighter credit controls.

Takeshi Yamaguchi, chief Japan economist at Morgan Stanley MUFG, states that” consumer sentiment is generally weak as individuals cope with higher costs and do not anticipate wages to keep up with inflation.”

Here, &nbsp, Ueda may be worried&nbsp, the BOJ will be blamed for pushing Japan into a recession. That’s what happened in 2006, the last time the BOJ tried — and failed — to normalize rates.

Governor Toshihiko Fukui then put an end to QE, and his team at the time were able to raise the official rates twice. The recession that followed enraged the political establishment. By 2008, Fukui’s successor was resurrecting QE and pushing rates back to zero.

In 2013, Ueda’s predecessor Haruhiko Kuroda supersized the BOJ’s balance sheet, growing it to a size bigger than Japan’s US$ 4.7 trillion GDP.

Since then, as the BOJ hoarded bonds and stocks, it’s become harder to discern where the BOJ’s portfolio ends and the private sector begins. In consequence, withdrawing liquidity is much more difficult than it was in 2006.

The yen’s spectacular drop might force Ueda’s hand, though. The advantages of a weak yen are quickly being overshadowed by the negative effects of a currency in relative free fall. Not least of which is insulting Beijing and Washington policymakers who already have enough on their plates.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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Antony Blinken tackles a tough China visit. Will it help?

Men and women in Beijing suburb playing American footballKatherina Tse/BBC

” Three, two, one- house”! shouts player Mu Yang as he moves the ball across the area.

Henry Mu, his Beijing Cyclones partner, scurries to the edge for the catch while his studs slam the AstroTurf in his direction.

As Henry catches his mouth, he says,” I was so surprised to find British sports here.” ” It’s really hard, physically and mentally, you may beat your fear”.

Men and women compete in a group activity in this place that you’d relate more with Baltimore than Beijing.

For many Americans, this is more than just a sport- it is an appearance of their national identity. There are only a couple thousand Foreign people in China, but there are millions of fans.

Beijing wants to have these kinds of “people to people” conversations and social connections as the two rival superpowers try to ease their turbulent relationship.

Since President Xi Jinping’s visit to San Francisco in November, China has been willing to emphasize similarities more than differences.

Beijing’s attempts to recruit foreign businesses in recent months have also appeared to have adopted a softer political voice in order to boost its sluggish economy.

On its element, the US has dispatched envoys more often to China and announced assistance. In his next visit to China in less than a year, Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Shanghai, following two recent sessions by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

The US calls it “responsibly managing opposition” to minimize the chances for “miscalculation or conflict”, according to a senior State Department official speaking in the work up to Mr Blinken’s vacation.

That does n’t mean the conversations will be easy. There is no denying that the US-China relationship has improved in recent years, but it still elicits stress and fear.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (L) waves next to US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns (C) and US Consulate General in Shanghai Scott Walker (R) while attending a basketball game between the Shanghai Sharks and the Zhejiang Golden Bulls at the Shanghai Indoor Stadium in Shanghai on April 24, 2024

Getty Images

The plane headed for the Foreign coast north of Taiwan and the South China Sea, a route-map warning of battlegrounds, was headed by Mr. Blinken on Wednesday as it traveled from Anchorage over the Pacific and Russia.

A suspected Chinese spy bubble was spotted in the same aircraft as the frozen lake of Alaska early next year, causing a full-fledged global problems and a deterioration in US-China relations.

The US Senate passed a costs shortly before Mr. Blinken took to the road in Shanghai, which would provide an additional$ 8 billion in military aid to Taiwan, which President Biden has pledged the US would protect if China attacked. The self- controlled area, which counts the US as its biggest alliance, is claimed by China.

If its Foreign parent company, ByteDance, did not sell TikTok within nine months, the republic voted to ban the popular social media app in addition to the offer.

Ms. Yellen had criticized China earlier this month during her journey for its overcapacity problems, which caused cheap Chinese goods to flood the US market.

China has bristled at all these improvements. It sees them as part of Washington’s efforts to include it financially and encircle it geo- socially. Beijing may modify its behavior, according to US officials, if China wants the danger of restrictions and taxes lifted or the US’s diplomatic pacts eased with its local allies.

Mr. Blinken will inform Wang Yi, the foreign secretary, on Thursday that China needs to halt its imports of machine devices and electronics to Russia. Moscow claims that it uses these as arms during its conflict in Ukraine. Beijing has described that as a “groundless accusation,” citing Washington’s support for billions of dollars in additional destructive aid for Kyiv as a “groundless accusation.”

Beijing also has its own instructions for Washington. Due to Mr. Blinken’s entrance, it published a lengthy, well-written statement outlining what they had hoped the talks would yield.

While relations have started to stabilise,” the United States continues pushing forward the approach of containing China, keeps adopting false words and actions that interfere in China’s domestic affairs, stain China’s photograph and destroy China’s interests. China firmly opposes for goes and has taken solid measures”, it said.

This concept has also been echoed by Chinese academics and the condition media. Blinken appears to be here to challenge an order to China. We will not give in to him and will never sacrifice on our main issues”.,” Li Haidong, a teacher at the China Foreign Affairs University, told the Global Times.

A “win-win condition” may be achieved in the marriage, according to Wang Yong of the Peking University School of International Relations, but he added that the US has the “wrong” impression that China and Washington need to show more “goodwill.”

S Secretary of State Antony Blinken (L) shakes hands with Shanghai Party Secretary Chen Jining during a meeting at the Grand Halls in Shanghai on April 25, 2024.

EPA

Taiwan would be one of the most pressing problems for Beijing to address when talks begin this year, according to Singapore-based professional Alfred Wu.

There are fears that Mr. Blinken’s visit to China will result in a rise in conflicts in the Taiwan Strait as well as the larger South China Sea, which comes less than a fortnight before William Lai, the pro-sustainability leader of Taiwan, will be inaugurated.

China would want to draw attention to the dark lines. The two parties would want to lay the groundwork, particularly in the run-up to the 20 May commencement,” said Mr. Wu, an associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.

As the US prepares for another national election in which both individuals are competing to be tough on China, their delicate relationship may be put to the test even after that date.

The feelings are on both sports and politics as they return to the football field with the Beijing Cyclones.

Mu Yang again made a comment for Chinese supporters during a Superbowl activity in Los Angeles, calling it a “huge honor” and expressing hope for more markets between China and the US in the future.

This activity is considered to be the biggest in the world. I hope the National Football League’s superstars can join us and tell us how to play wealthy sports. That would be beneficial for us.

Henry Mu, however, appreciates how he is able to” historically connect through this activity.”

Chinese people can participate in United activities, and Americans are very welcome to visit. Making friends and getting to know each other is wonderful.

” Peace, not battle”.

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Cabinet clears path for election

The cabinet on Tuesday approved the Election Commission’s (EC ) draft decree to begin the process of electing a new Senate to succeed the 250-strong military-appointed chamber whose tenure is due to expire on May 11, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin said.

Under the order, programs will be accepted from May 13 with votes at area, provincial and national levels to be held on June 9, June 16 and June 26 respectively. The benefits will be announced on July 2.

According to the 2017 contract, the fresh Senate did include 200 people and will not be directly elected by the public. The candidates did ballot among themselves.

They will be selected from 20 different expert groups, with 10 chairs available for each team. There will also be a supply record of five individuals in each group.

It is estimated that about 100,000 people may have in the Senate surveys.

According to the EC, the military-appointed Senate did remain in office until the new room is officially endorsed.

Meanwhile, Thanakorn Wangboonkongchana, a United Thai Nation ( UTN) Party list MP, on Tuesday   urged the government to keep a close watch for possible adjustment of the vote.

He cited alleged moves by Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, chairman of the Progressive Movement ( PM) and former leader of the now-defunct Future Forward Party ( FFP), who has been urging his supporters to contest the Senate election.

Mr Thanakorn even accused Mr Thanathorn of distorting information about the 2017 law and the Senate’s authority to accept the members of people separate agencies, especially the Constitutional Court.

The UTN list-MP said he suspected Mr Thanathorn holds prejudices against the Constitutional Court, which dissolved the FFP and is reviewing a plea that could possibly lead to the breakdown of the Move Forward Party, the resurrection of the FFP.

Before, Senator Somchai Sawangkarn even called on the EC to take action against any attempts to manipulate the vote of new lawmakers.

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Yuan internationalization drive hits a local speed bump – Asia Times

As Taiwanese leader Xi Jinping works to increase the yuan’s role in global business and finance, he’s encountering an unforeseen rate knock: island companies.

Corporate executives are putting their feet down when it comes to converting foreign exchange earnings into local currency, according to new data from the People’s Bank of China ( PBOC).

In March, FX deposits rose to  US$ 833 billion   from$ 779 billion a month earlier, signaling that businesses are slow-walking moves to swap earnings into their home currency.

The most obvious explanation: higher offshore interest rates that are contributing to a weaker-than-expected yuan.

This enormously positive yield spread is not going to vanish anytime soon, according to Alvin Tan, a currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

The US and China rate differential is the most significant since 2007. This important fundamental fact, according to Tan, suffices to explain why Chinese exporters are reluctant to exchange dollars for yuan. ”

Another reason for Beijing’s currency managers to resist the urge to chase a falling yen downward in the months to come. It might have negative effects because it contradicts Xi’s grand plan for “yuanization.” ”

Granted, Xi and Premier Li Qiang have so far resisted the urge to devalue. A weaker exchange rate may be just the thing to boost exports and keep the country’s largest economy from experiencing deflationary strains, but it could also be the thing to keep exports at 5 % and keep deflationary pressures at bay.

There are a variety of reasons why Pan Gongsheng, the governor of the PBOC, and Team Xi have not followed the yen lower.

People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng faces a currency dilemma. Image: Twitter Screengrab

For one thing, it would make it more difficult for property development companies to pay offshore bonds, increasing the likelihood of more defaults involving China Evergrande Group. For another, it could make China an even bigger flashpoint ahead of the November 5 US election.

The biggest worry, though, is damaging Xi’s long-term priority to internationalize China ’s currency as an alternative to the US dollar.

According to Dmitry Dolgin, economist at ING Bank, “it appears that China’s expanding trade ties and financial infrastructure suggest that the potential for further yuanization has not been exhausted.”

As the yen drops to 34-year lows, Yoet Xi’s balancing act becomes more challenging. The yen ’s 9. 7 % drop this year alone is n’t making Beijing’s life easier as it struggles to stabilize consumer prices.

A stronger GDP may also give Xi’s reform team more latitude to deal with China’s property crisis, lessen the rate of rising youth unemployment, and lessen runaway local government borrowing.

When Fitch Ratings downgraded China ’s sovereign credit rating to “negative” from “stable ” earlier this month, it listed local and regional governments ’ financial strains among its biggest worries.

Municipalities, Fitch said, “have been affected by the property slowdown and some local government financing vehicles ( LGFVs ) are facing refinancing pressures. ”

According to Fitch, in the past year,” some highly indebted regions were permitted to issue about CNY1.” 4 trillion ($ 193. 5 billion ) in refinancing bonds to bring LGFV debt directly onto their balance sheets. In 2024, we anticipate that this issuance will continue. ”

So far, banks have been requested to support LGFV debt structures through restructurings, while local asset management companies have also stepped in with support, Fitch notes.

China’s Ministry of Finance responded by claiming that Fitch ratings do n’t effectively account for the potential benefits of fiscal policy in terms of fostering economic growth and stabilizing macro leverage. ”

The team led by Finance Minister Lan Fo’an asserts that China’s GDP is increasing by about 5 %. 3 %, contributing more than 30 % to world output.

As such, Beijing claims, “the long-term positive trend of China ’s economy has not changed, nor has the Chinese government’s ability and determination to maintain good sovereign credit. ”

Even so, central banks and international investors are n’t buying yuan assets as much as Xi’s government had hoped.

One reason is the US dollar’s stubborn strength. In February, foreign holdings of US Treasury securities surged to a record — and a fifth straight monthly rise — despite Washington ’s national debt hitting$ 35 trillion.

Photo: Reuters/Jason Lee
As a global reserve currency, the dollar is still in favor. Photo: Agencies

US government debt purchases increased by 8 % on average. 7 % in February alone to$ 7. 965 trillion, up from$ 7. 945 trillion in January as Belgium, Japan, the UK and other top economies loaded up on dollars.

This dollar-hoarding is more than offsetting Beijing’s efforts to reduce US holdings. In February, China ’s stockpile of Treasuries dropped$ 22. 7 billion to$ 775 billion.

The BRICS economies ‘ wider efforts to marginalize the world’s reserve currency are also spooked by dollar purchases.

The governments of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa have n’t been quiet about “de-dollarization ” efforts, with an important assist from Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members.

Given China ’s scale and role as the top trading nation, a pivot from dollars to yuan seems like the most obvious changing-of-the-guard option.

Defined by the BRICS alliance’s desire to dethrone the dollar by persuading developing nations to use local currencies for trade and finance instead.

This determination has only grown more powerful as a result of US President Joe Biden’s administration’s efforts to undermine China’s tech sector and “weaponize” the dollar as part of policies to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

Christian Lindner, the minister of finance in Germany, warns that the thawing of Russian assets in the wake of Ukraine’s tensions could threaten sovereign immunity and financial stability.

International financial stability may be endangered, according to Lindner. We would lose more in the long run than we would gain. ”

Yet the ditch-the-dollar enterprise seems to have lost momentum, at least for now, as the dollar continues to advance. This month, the  DXY index, a key measure of dollar strength, is up nearly 5 % so far this year.

One reason the dollar is confounding the BRICS is the durability of the “higher-for-longer ” era for US yields. Interest rates were expected to be cut by the Federal Reserve between five and seven times this year. Markets now wonder if the Fed will ease at all as inflation proves to be less transient than expected.

Lawrence Summers, the former US Treasury secretary, even wonders if the next move by Chairman Jerome Powell’s Fed might be to hike rates instead. This reversal is causing the yen to fall and keep the yen in decline.

The yuan is n’t alone. India’s rupee recently dropped to an all-time low versus the US dollar. Malaysia’s ringgit is trading near its lowest levels since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis. The central bank has delayed rate cuts due to concerns about further declines in the Philippine peso.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned this month that emerging economies are struggling to stem large capital outflows as the International Monetary Fund and World Bank hosted their spring meeting.

The rest of the world’s interest rates are not encouraging, Georgieva asserts. Higher interest rates increase the US’s appeal, making financial flows flow here, which causes the rest of the world to struggle a little bit. ”

Georgieva comes to the conclusion that, if it persists for a long time, it might turn out to be a little uneasy in terms of financial stability. ” 

In March, IMF data showed the US dollar accounted for almost 60 % of all global foreign reserves. The share of global foreign reserves in the currency increased by 0 percent. 2 percentage points in 2023.

Despite this, Xi seems as determined as ever to raise the yuan’s reputation worldwide.

In 2016, Xi’s efforts to strengthen the financial system and increase transparency paid off when the yuan was welcomed into the International Monetary Fund ’s “special-drawing rights ” program.

The yuan’s trust increased as a result of joining the most exclusive currency basket with the dollar, yen, euro, and pound.

Since then, its use in finance and trade has increased steadily. In FTSE-Russell’s and MSCI’s stocks indexes and others, Chinese government bonds held a prominent position in that growing role.

However, Chinese assets may lose value because of the yuan’s softness. So do perceptions that  In Xi’s next five years, his goals for greater control may outweigh growing Chinese influence. competitiveness and transparency.

The yuan’s potential impact on the world as China modernizes its economy is still a good one. In terms of trade and official aid, there are indications that China Inc. is having doubts about the yuan’s trajectory, which suggests that Xi’s de-dollarization strategy is working better abroad than among Chinese businesses.

One solution is for Xi and Li to intensify reforms in the sectors of the property sector, local government finances, capital markets, and shifting the focus from exports to services and innovation. To increase global trust, Beijing also needs to fully convert the yuan.

China ’s yuan still has a trust problem. Photo: Facebook Screengrab

According to Alexandra Prokopenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, the issue is that “it is believed that the yuan ca n’t become a full-fledged reserve currency because of the current restrictions on capital transactions in China. ” ”

Although Russia and other sizable economies are using the Yuan to boost its status as an international reserve currency, Prokopenko notes that due to structural constraints, it is still a difficult currency to substitute for the dollar.

According to Rodrigo Zeidan, a professor of finance at New York University Shanghai, China cannot permit the flow of capital freely into its economy without running into a second domestic currency crisis. ”

According to him, it is important to see whether China will try to de-dollarize the world economy or to merely hedge against potential US sanctions. China’s access to the latter will remain limited for the foreseeable future. China would have to maintain free capital markets in an effort to de-dollarize. ”

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Mongolia seeks closer ties amid major power rivalry

Mongolia seeks closer ties amid major power rivalry
Foreign Minister of Mongolia, Battsetseg Batmunkh. MFA_TOGY

Mongolian Foreign Minister Battsetseg Batmunkh stated in an exclusive interview with Bangkok Post that the country hopes to develop stronger relationships with Thailand overall.

Ms Battsetseg, the second person to be appointed to the blog, is making an official attend to Thailand from now till next Wednesday.

In light of a slew of political difficulties, she described her life and career, how Mongolia is navigating problems, and how she sees strengthening ties with Thailand.

According to Ms. Battsetseg, she has always wanted to work as a minister. This led to her enrolling in the National University of Mongolia’s mentor program in international relationships.

After graduating, she established the” Mönkhyin üseg Group” and served as the head of its board of directors from 2007–2015. She continued to advise the finance secretary until 2016 in that capacity.

Before taking the position of foreign minister in January 2021, she served as the evil minister of international relations from 2016 to 2020.

” Over the years, I have gained experience working in diverse governmental agencies, [and ] holding different political jobs, many of which were closely tied to international relations and global teamwork,” she said.

Mongolia’s world watch

The country’s foreign policy was mapped out by the State Great Hural [Parliament ] of Mongolia in 2011 as it aimed to pursue a peace-oriented, open, independent and multi-pillared approach, Ms Battsetseg said.

With regard to other nations in the region, Ms. Battsetseg cited close relationships and socially beneficial cooperation with our two neighbors [ China and Russia], as well as maintaining a “balanced and good neighborly relationship with our two neighbors,” according to Ms. Battsetseg, who also mentioned close relationships and mutually beneficial cooperation with our second neighbors.

She stated that Mongolia is engaged in international politics and has diplomatic ties with all 192 UN member states, as well as the Holy See, the State of Palestine, and the European Union.

According to Ms. Battsetseg, Mongolia is committed to promoting peace and security both in the area and around the globe.

With its single-state nuclear-weapon-free area position, the government’s dedication to the non-proliferation of atomic weapons and achieving atomic peace has been extensively welcomed and supported by the global community, she said.

In 2013, the” Ulaanbaatar Dialogue on Northeast Asian Security” program was established to handle the region’s safety issues. This community has now evolved into a popular method for governments, international organisations and education to participate, exchange views and, most important, to find common ground for probable solutions.

” Last time, we hosted the 8th period of the Ulaanbaatar Dialogue. More than 180 members, representing 30 states and over a hundred companies, attended the event. The” UBD Youth Forum,” which encouraged young experts to meet the speech, was a recent addition to the meeting, Ms. Battsetseg noted.

She said that the UN peace activities are one of the crucial means of maintaining international peace and security.

In the two years that Mongolia has participated in UN peacekeeping, over 20,000 Peoples have served as “blue hats” in 11 peacekeeping missions in hot patches around the world.

” Now, we are the 19th-largest contribution to UN security. In the Northeast and Central Asian area, we are the second-largest army source after China,” Ms Battsetseg said.

The Mongolian administration’s agenda includes promoting gender equality and empowering women and girls, especially those who live in remote regions. These initiatives have been taken to an international levels.

She noted that Mongolia has organized a number of activities to help achieve these objectives, including a global conference on expanding the role of women in peace in June 2022 and the meeting of feminine foreign ministers in June 2023.

” For this year, Ulaanbaatar will host the World Women’s Forum on August 22–23. The website will focus on the importance of women’s autonomy, gender equality, and their involvement and leadership in addressing environment change-related issues and the realization of the SDGs,” she said, referring to the United Nation’s 17 Sustainable Development Goals.

50 years of P2P exchanges

Ms. Battsetseg claimed that their first encounter can be traced back to a meeting of their envoys in the 13th or 14th century, despite Thailand and Mongolia officially establishing ties on March 5, 1974.

Despite their geographical dispersion, she claimed, the two sides were able to lay a strong foundation for the growth of ties by finding common ground in Buddhism as well as some aspects of their respective cultures and traditions.

Both nations have seen progress and success in various cooperating areas since Mongolia’s democratic reforms started in 1990.

People-to-people exchanges climbed, highlighted by Her Royal Highness Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn’s visit to Mongolia in 1992 and a visit by the president of Mongolia, His Excellency Mr P O Chirbat, to Thailand in 1994.

” Many other high-level visits followed, adding momentum, enriching the scope of cooperation, and fostering friendly relations between our two countries,” Ms Battsetseg said.

Both sides have stopped issuing visas for ordinary passport holders since 2007 and introduced seasonal direct flights, which means that Mongolians are traveling to Thailand are increasing at the same time.

Thailand is also becoming a tourist destination for Mongolians, particularly medical travelers, according to Ms. Battsetseg.

In 2023 over 13,000 Mongolians travelled to Thailand, a notable increase from 8,000 the year before. Conversely, the number of Thai nationals visiting Mongolia in 2023 surpassed 2,000, marking a threefold rise from 2022.

Setting its sights on welcoming more global adventurers, Ulaanbaatar has declared 2023–2025 as” The Years to Visit Mongolia”, under the rallying call of” Welcome to Mongolia”.

The government eased the entry visa requirements for people visiting 30 countries and introduced an online visa application system that makes it simple for citizens to apply for visas in 99 countries, making the application process go smoothly.

This promotion has amplified Mongolia’s appeal as a top-tier destination, Ms Battsetseg said, and as of December 2023 the country has been witnessing a record influx of tourists.

Also, due to the country’s expanding network of air connections and enhanced road infrastructure, navigating the vast expanses of Mongolia has become more convenient.

We want to welcome more Thai visitors to our nation so they can experience the Mongolian people’s hospitality and natural beauty, according to Ms. Battsetseg.

Mutual trade and investment

Aside from the people-to-people connections, both sides are hoping to see more mutual trade and investment.

A body, according to Ms. Battsetseg, will foster regular dialogue and foster cross-sector collaboration. A framework that orients cooperation in high priority areas has also been created using a five-year work plan.

Additionally, she said, the two nations have established a Joint Trade Commission, which is essential for boosting trade and economic cooperation.

She continued,” It is crucial to maintain the momentum of our dynamic cooperation.”

The country is seeking to explore new areas of cooperation that align with Mongolia’s 2050 Vision and Thailand’s Vision 2030, she noted.

According to Ms. Battsetseg, agricultural research and development that strengthens both countries ‘ capacity for food production could be a new area of cooperation as Thailand strives to become a leading industrial hub.

She pointed out that Mongolia’s expertise in livestock farming could complement Thailand’s strengths in crop cultivation and processing.

Additionally, joint efforts to advance sustainable and organic farming practices could lead to new markets for agricultural products from both nations, particularly in those areas where organic food is increasingly in demand.

” Furthermore, we could cooperate in air cargo transportation, as our direct flights from Ulaanbaatar to Bangkok are scheduled to operate year-round starting from this year. Last year alone, 53,000 Mongolians travelled to Bangkok, Phuket and Pattaya, and Thailand was one of the top destinations for Mongolians,” she added.

On top of that, with the increasing demand for digital technology and innovation, Mongolia is keen to collaborate with Thailand in promoting digital innovation and entrepreneurship through exchange programmes, joint hackathons, and startup incubation initiatives.

Working in financial technology ( fintech ) could involve sharing expertise in blockchain technology and creating financial services that are specific to the needs of both countries, according to Ms. Battsetseg.

She said it is crucial to facilitate more interactions between Thai and Mongolian businesses.

According to Ms Battsetseg, strengthening ties between the two parties ‘ respective business communities will lead to greater mutual trade and investment.

This could involve organising more business forums, exchanging business delegations, attending Mongolia’s Economic Forum and the region’s largest food and beverage trade show, THAIFEX, or other trade shows and exhibitions, and engaging matchmaking events to connect potential partners and facilitate collaboration, she said.

At the same time,” MonGolia, Always Moving” was launched as this year’s tourism campaign.

According to Ms. Battsetseg, it demonstrates Mongolia’s investment prospects while preserving the country’s traditional nomadic culture from an economic standpoint.

It serves as an open invitation at the same time as a platform for expanding tourism and attracting more investment.

We also anticipate working toward the final drafts of the pending intergovernmental agreements and treaties to enhance the legal environment. Looking ahead, I am confident that the future of Mongolia-Thailand relations is even brighter. ” Ms Battsetseg said.

Regional partners

Amid a series of ongoing global challenges, Ms Battsetseg said Mongolia recognises the importance of solidarity, interconnectedness, cooperation and multilateralism.

Thailand and Mongolia are both committed to strengthening bilateral cooperation as well as to co-operating at multilateral forums to discuss issues of common concern, she continued.

Since the 1990s, Mongolia has pursued a multi-pillar and open foreign policy, actively seeking to integrate into the Asia-Pacific region.

In 2005, Ulaanbaatar ratified the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia, acknowledging the significance of Asean’s contribution to regional integration.

Ms. Battsetseg stated that it intends to actively participate in Asean and its subsidiary organizations ‘ activities going forward.

Thailand is Mongolia’s third-largest trade partner in Southeast Asia.

I want to share a quote from King Rama IX’s speech as we pause to remember the historic milestone,” Ms. Battsetseg said.

“‘Friendship between nations is important, but what is more important is people-to-people relations, which can guarantee peace and progress’. “

” I firmly believe in the significance of this statement, as it highlights the crucial role of cultivating connections between people as the foundation of achieving lasting peace and progress,” Ms. Battsetseg continued.

I’m confident that our relationship will continue to grow, and I look forward to working closely with my Thai counterparts to improve our relationship for the benefit of our respective nations and people. “

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Meet the ICU nurse who examines and diagnoses patients like a boss

in collaboration with Care To Go Beyond

SINGAPORE: Faith Hwang evaluates their condition and examines the diagnostic results of her patient placement in the Tan Tock Seng Hospital ( TTSH) through a stethoscope around her neck.

Examining one person, she says: “Your blood pressure … looks cool. We will check if we can reduce some of the dosage for you. We’ll also ( perform ) a formal heart ultrasound. ”

Hwang is never a doctor, yet. She’s a rn, one with superior training that requires a master’s degree in nursing.

“ In terms of theoretical knowledge, there’s no doubt about it — she’s on a par ( with ) or possibly better than some of the junior MOs ( medical officers ), ” says her supervisor Lew Jin Wen, a senior consultant in respiratory and critical care medicine at TTSH.

She is familiar with the rules and techniques in this place. She’s been around around the longest. ”

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West faces stark choice on Ukraine losing the war – Asia Times

Ukraine is currently facing an existential threat similar to that experienced immediately following the Russian invasion of Crimea in February 2022. However, improvements are unlikely – at least not immediately – in contrast to that.

The Ukrainian commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrsky, claims that the situation has significantly worsened along the front, and that even General Sir Richard Barrons, the former commander of the UK’s Joint Forces Command, has been openly discussing the possibility of a Polish defeat.

On April 13, Barrons stated to the BBC that Ukraine might lose the war in 2024 because it might come to believe it ca n’t win. When that happens, why will people continue to fight and die just to defend the indefensible? ”

His attempt to pressure the east to give Ukraine more military aid may be influenced by this. The fact that NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has publicly acknowledged that Ukraine will need to negotiate with Russia and decide “what kind of compromises they are willing to make” is a clear sign that things are n’t going well for Ukraine.

What seems to be a more condescending narrative has a number of causes. Second, the front-line situation is getting worse, with Ukraine lagging behind in both labor, tools, and ammunition. This wo n’t change in a very long time. The recent approval of the new Ukrainian recruitment law is in order. New soldiers will need time to be trained, deployed, and integrated.

Russia’s market has remained resilient despite Western sanctions and seen expansion driven by the war at the same time. On top of sales from Iran and North Korea dual-use systems, including electronic components and equipment tools for hands production, has been supplied by China.

Additionally, Russia has been successful in producing a lot of its own weapons and technology. Much of this is produced in facilities that are beyond the reach of Russian arms.

This does not mean that all is well with Russian supplies, but they are better than what Ukraine can do on its own in the presence of American assistance.

Dark view

The Kremlin has adopted a method of grinding down Ukrainian threats along long reaches of the front, particularly in Donbas in the south, where Russian force has been applied in recent months, thanks to this changing harmony of capabilities to support the war effort, which is now increasingly favoring Russia.

ISW map showing the state of the conflict in Ukraine as at April 16.
Ukraine’s condition of the conflict as of April 16 Map: Institute for the Study of War

Russian forces are currently stationed across the frontier from Kharkiv in large numbers. Over the past few weeks, Russia has launched an expanded attack on Ukraine’s second-largest city, which has resulted in mandatory evacuations from three districts in the area.

The nearly 100,000 to 120,000 Soviet troops would not be enough for another powerful Russian cross-border unpleasant, but they are enough to tie over large numbers of Ukrainian forces which, therefore, cannot be used in another potentially more prone areas of the front.

A significant Russian advance is unlikely in the foreseeable future, especially if a significant portion of the Ukrainian defense lines suddenly collapse. But part of what Russia is trying to do right now is look for weaknesses to exploit in a bigger offensive in the spring or early summer while its broad assault on Ukraine’s defenses is ongoing.

In this context, it is crucial to keep in mind Russia’s stated overall objectives, particularly the Kremlin’s territorial ties to all four of the regions Moscow annexed in September 2022. No evidence that these goals have changed, and Russia’s current operations on the battlefield do so in accordance with this.

The first step would be to capture the remaining Donetsk region, which would set the stage for further expansion in the Zaporizhzhia region in southern Ukraine and the Kherson region in the center, particularly by retaking the city of Kherson, which Ukraine liberated in late summer 2022.

A Ukrainian withdrawal from the current frontline in Donbas would increase Russia’s ability to capture all of Donbass, but it would also undermine the Kremlin’s success in Zaporzhiya and Kherson.

Additionally, it would thwart any Russians ‘ attempts to capture the remaining portion of the Ukrainian Black Sea coast all the way to Odesa. However, whether or not this Ukrainian strategy succeeds will depend in large part on how much Western support will be available and when.

Help wanted – right now

The outcome that Kiev’s Western allies will soon increase is the most optimistic.

This must include ammunition, air defense systems, armored vehicles and drones. At the same time, the Western defense industrial base, especially in Europe, needs to switch to a similar war footing as in Russia.

On this basis, the situation on the frontlines could stabilise, and any offensive maneuvers Russia has in place right now would not add much new ground. Anyhow, it is unlikely that this outcome would result in a slightly better situation for Ukraine at this time.

The worst scenario would be the collapse of regions of the frontline that would lead to additional Russian gains. If it did occur, Ukraine’s morale would suffer significantly if it were to suffer as things were going as they stand.

Even though almost three-quarters of Ukrainians are open to the idea of negotiations, it would empower doubters in the West to pressure Ukraine into negotiations at a time when it would be weak. Therefore, a military defeat of Ukraine in all but name would be the worst outcome rather than Moscow taking Kiev.

A major Russian offensive in the summer, if successful, would force Kiev into a bad compromise. Beyond a defeat for Ukraine, it would also result in humiliation of the West and a likely complete fracturing of the country’s already moderately divided front of support for Kiev, giving the Kremlin more power.

In such a scenario, any agreements made by Russia with Ukraine on the back of the Kremlin’s victory on the battlefield would likely be mere stepping stones in Putin’s never-ending quest to reclaim the Russian empire of his Soviet dreams.

Stefan Wolff, Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham and Tetyana Malyarenko, Professor of International Relations, Jean Monnet Professor of European Security, National University Odesa Law Academy

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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