'Mapping' recent developments in South China Sea

By:
On:
In: Asia

Outlining its (new) territorial claims in the South China Sea, China issued new maps on August 28. This act has, once again, led to a series of diplomatic storms in the region, and is also in sync with China’s age-old practice of launching sensitive and provocative steps just days before a bilateral/multilateral meeting – this time the ASEAN Summit and meetings in Jakarta, followed by the Group of Twenty Summit in India.

Often termed “cartographic invasion” by analysts and critics, China’s issuance of new maps will have far-reaching direct implications on claimant states, with ramifications for the international community – especially countries such as Japan, Australia and India, as well as the European Union and its member states and the US, which have huge economic and strategic stakes in the region. 

China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea are revised and upgraded with these new maps, which transcend the traditional “Nine-Dash Line” that Beijing has been using to demarcate its (unilateral) claims, with comprehensive details that include rocks and islets.

For countries that share maritime boundaries with China, the new maps drive home new concerns and consequent anxieties. The mapping of smaller islets directly conflicts with Vietnam’s and the Philippines’ UNCLOS-compliant rights in these waters, raising the possibility of greater hostilities.

China’s new maps seem to challenge the existing legal norms, potentially undermining the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and further complicating dispute resolution processes. 

Malaysian and Philippine responses

Malaysia has traditionally employed a soft diplomatic approach with the goal of balancing its strategic relationship with China and defending its territorial claims. In contrast to some of its neighbors, Malaysia often refrains from direct confrontations – diplomatic or otherwise – relying instead on multilateral discussions that are embedded in ASEAN-centric mechanisms. 

Malaysia’s predicament has frequently been termed a “diplomatic tightrope.” On the one hand, it has overlapping claims with China and other Southeast Asian countries, while on the other, China is a major source of commerce and investment for Malaysia, and as of 2023, it continues to be Malaysia’s biggest trade partner.

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) investments have further cemented this relationship, making the economic ties a significant factor in shaping Malaysia-China relations.

During a recent meeting between Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Nanning, the two parties agreed to have open and uninterrupted communication over the South China Sea issue to maintain peace and stability. This “diplomatic firefight” occurred right after Malaysia officially criticized China for coming up with new maps.

Clearly, Malaysia is still trying to make use of “quiet diplomacy,” the efficacy of which seems to be depleting fast.

The Philippine stance on the South China Sea has seen numerous twists and turns over the past few years, depending on the wishes of the leader at the time.

In 2016, the Philippines won the arbitration case it lodged against China after the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague invalidated Beijing’s Nine-Dash Line claim that covers nearly the entire South China Sea.

The Philippines took a harsh stance through those legal proceedings. However, in Rodrigo Duterte’s unilateral bid to improve ties with China, his administration completely disregarded the International Court of Justice ruling.

Under the current administration of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, the Philippines is seemingly reviving the position Manila had during the presidency of Benigno Aquino III, and which is a direct consequence of China’s swiftly growing island reclamation, island militarization, and gray-zone tactics.

Last month, the China Coast Guard used water cannons on a Philippine Coast Guard resupply vessel en route to the Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands, which China also claims. The Philippine government summoned the Chinese envoy in Manila, Huang Xilian, to lodge a diplomatic complaint and concerns over China’s illegal conduct and dangerous maneuvers.

As China develops and modernizes its military and exhibits greater aggression in its claims over the South China Sea and Taiwan, there is growing concern around the world about its naval actions. The Mutual Defense Treaty between the Philippines and the US and revival of the Visiting Forces Agreement serve as a strategic counterbalance to China’s increasing militarization in the area.

Malaysia and the Philippines have each navigated the complexities of the South China Sea dispute in their own unique ways. While both parties use UNCLOS to substantiate their claims, their contrastive diplomatic behavior is shaped by domestic priorities, geopolitical risk assessments, and (real and perceived) nature of relationship with/influence of China.

That said, as members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Malaysia and the Philippines seek to resolve the issue on a regional level, although the effectiveness of ASEAN in mitigating the dispute remains questionable. 

Conduct of Parties and Code of Conduct

To manage outstanding territorial disputes and promote stability, ASEAN and China initiated the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DoC) in 2002, with ongoing discussions about a more binding Code of Conduct (CoC). However, nearly two decades have passed since the DoC, and the finalization of the CoC remains elusive. 

While establishing the DoC was a significant diplomatic move, its efficacy has been limited for several reasons such as its lack of being legally binding. The consultative tone marked by a subtle ambivalence in the document leads to open interpretation, which allows differing views on what constitutes “good behavior.”

Also, in terms of encouraging unilateral measures, China has continued to reclaim islands and engage in military operations, frequently justifying these moves under the pretext of “sovereign rights.”

The much-anticipated CoC is expected to be a legally binding agreement that will supersede the DoC. However, there are a number of challenges that impede its completion, including the ASEAN nations’ differing agendas and connections with China, which make it difficult to present a cohesive front.

Other factors include the strategic balancing of relations with the US by such countries as Vietnam and the Philippines, as well as the complexity of problems such as fishing rights, freedom of navigation, and legal jurisdictions that need to be resolved.

The recent adoption of guidelines to accelerate negotiations for the COC in the South China Sea, signed between ASEAN and China on July 13 in Jakarta, opens up new possibilities. Whether it will be a credible mechanism or just a rhetoric, only time will tell.

Conclusion

As the situation in the South China Sea continues to evolve, the new maps issued by China are likely to be a point of debate in future diplomatic rendezvous. It remains to be seen whether they will result in conflict resolution or escalate already existing disputes.

It also shows the inability of ASEAN to find consensus to deal with China’s increasing intrusions in the South China Sea. While one can only speculate on the long-term implications of China’s recent moves, including the issuance of new maps, its actions have no doubt the ability to rock ASEAN’s CoC boat.

If these developments are any sign, it is clear that the region is in for a long haul with Beijing on the South China Sea front, with the issue remaining the one with managed tensions rather than one of resolved dispute.

Continue Reading

Metal-mining pollution impacts 23 million people worldwide

By:
On:
In: Asia
Aerial view of a tailings dam - embankment used to store by-products of mining operations, in this case of the extraction of copper- of the Minera Valle Central mining company, in Rancagua, ChileGetty Images
By Victoria Gill
Science correspondent, BBC News

At least 23 million people around the world live on flood-plains contaminated by potentially harmful concentrations of toxic waste from metal-mining activity, according to a study.

UK scientists mapped the world’s 22,609 active and 159,735 abandoned metal mines and calculated the extent of pollution from them.

Chemicals can leach from mining operations into soil and waterways.

The researchers say future mines have to be planned “very carefully”.

This is particularly critical as the demand surges for metals that will support battery technology and electrification, including lithium and copper, says Prof Mark Macklin from the University of Lincoln, who led the research.

.flourish-container{position:relative;color:#404040;font-family:’Helmet’, ‘Freesans’, ‘Helvetica’, ‘Arial’, sans-serif;font-weight:400;line-height:1.4}.flourish-embed{position:relative}

Your device may not support this visualisation

“We’ve known about this for a long time,” he told BBC News. “What’s alarming for me is the legacy – [pollution from abandoned mines] is still affecting millions of people.”

The findings, published in the journal Science, build on the team’s previous studies of exactly how pollution from mining activity moves and accumulates in the environment.

The scientists compiled data on mining activity around the world, which was published by governments, mining companies and organisations like the US Geological Survey. This included the location of each mine, what metal it was extracting and whether it was active or abandoned.

Prof Macklin explained that the majority of metals from metal mining is bound up in sediment in the ground. “It’s this material – eroded from mine waste tips, or in contaminated soil – that ends up in river channels or [can be] deposited over a flood-plain.”

A map of south eastern Australia showing where active and inactive metal mines are located. There is a large cluster around Melbourne in the state of Victoria and also south west of Sydney in New South Wales. The majority of them are inactive.

Prof Macklin and his colleagues used previously published field and laboratory analyses to work out how far this metal-contaminated sediment moves down river systems.

That data allowed the scientists to produce a computer model that could calculate the extent of river channels and flood-plains around the world that are polluted by mining waste – both from current and historical mining activity.

“We mapped the area that’s likely to be affected, which, when you combine that with population data, shows that 23 million people in the world are living on ground that would be considered ‘contaminated’,” said Chris Thomas, who is professor of water and planetary health at the University of Lincoln.

“Whether those people will be affected by that contamination, we simply can’t tell with this research, and there are many ways that people may be exposed,” he stressed. “But there is agriculture and irrigation in many of those areas.”

Crops grown on contaminated soils, or irrigated by water contaminated by mine waste, have been shown to contain high concentrations of metals.

Waste leaks downstream after a dam partially fails at a mine in Romania

PAul Brewer/University of Aberystwyth

“Animals grazing on flood-plains may also eat contaminated plant material and sediment, especially after flooding, when fresh metal-rich sediment is deposited,” the scientists explained in their paper.

“With climate change and more frequent floods,” Prof Macklin added, “this legacy [pollution] is going to extend and expand.”

Prof Jamie Woodward from the University of Manchester, who was not involved in the study, said the research highlighted the threat posed by “silent pollution” stored in flood-plains.

“A good deal of river monitoring is focused on water when the real ‘nasties’ are often associated with river sediments,” he told BBC News.

“We need to better understand how contaminants are transported in the environment and where they are stored. This allows us to assess hazards and to mitigate against them. Heavily contaminated flood-plain grasslands should not be used for livestock grazing, for example.”

The researchers point out in their study that metal mining represents “humankind’s earliest and most persistent form of environmental contamination”. Waste from mining began to contaminate river systems as early as 7,000 years ago.

Data visualisations by Kate Gaynor and Mike Hills

Related Topics

More on this story

Continue Reading

BOJ’s policy calls are being made in Washington and Beijing

By:
On:
In: Asia

TOKYO- The Bank of Japan’s decision to leave interest rates constant was actually made in Washington, despite the information being announced by government Kazuo Ueda last Friday.

Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, let some people down two days prior by claiming that the longest US tightening pattern in 30 years is still ongoing. In many ways, that news left Ueda’s staff at the BOJ standing pat now with nowhere to go.

Almost everyone is in agreement that the BOJ needs to start normalizing attention charges right away. Credit markets have been distorted by quantitative easing( QE ) over the past 23 years, which have also killed the” animal spirits” required to revive Japanese innovation and competitiveness.

Although neither Ueda nor Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is officially stating this, both are pleased to see the yen damp further. However, it’s difficult to imagine that process starting with the threat of additional Fed price rises hovering over Japan Inc.

This year’s 12.9 % decline in the yen puts it just 150 cents below the US dollar. Imports are less expensive and Tokyo is better able to offset the negative effects of US business punishment thanks to a weaker exchange rate. President Joe Biden’s software plans, while directed at China, are also causing a lot of problems for Japan and South Korea.

The US-China trade war is reducing the potential of relatives to boost exports, especially makers of high-tech technology, yet as Biden works to pull Japan and Korea further into America’s circle. Materials that Chinese businesses may typically buy are still mostly in limbo for export.

For instance, Korea had been betting on the post-Covid backlash by China, its principal trade partner. An 8.4 % drop in North Korean exports year over year in August, the 11th consecutive quarterly drop, was caused by poor demand for electronics.

According to Chung Min Lee, senior colleague at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, being caught between Washington and Beijing” creates a two-sided reality” causing” extraordinary pressure” as the” US-China competition intensifies and spills over to influence business and technology plan.”

A weaker renminbi relative to the money might also be better for Kishida’s state. It might be advantageous for both China and Japan to align the hankering and fuan more closely. More products from Japan must be exported to the West. A weaker renminbi might help China’s economy brace and attract more business to Japan.

Prime Minister of Japan Fumio Kishida. Screengrab / ABC News image

As China slows down and fallout from 11 Fed price hikes in 17 months casts doubt on the US perspective, Ueda is left with a sluggish private business and an extremely tumultuous international scene.

According to economist Stefan Angrick at Moody’s Analytics,” private need is struggling, and work conditions are softening” in Japan. Additionally,” wage increases keep up with cpi.”

Since he started the job in April, prices has complicated Ueda’s decision-making. This week’s two-day plan meeting at the BOJ was marked by a strong desire to declare recession to be officially defeated.

On the nine-member BOJ plan table, Naoki Tamura, a pessimistic speech, has been claiming that Tokyo’s 2 % goal” has come into view.”

However, it is a Decisive triumph. Being certain that he has” gathered sufficient proof of a noble wage-price period” is Ueda’s main concern, according to Commonwealth Bank of Australia money strategist Carol Kong.

Chinese consumer prices are increasing by 3.1 % annually. Inflation has now increased for 17 consecutive weeks, down from a 41-year deep of 4.2 % in January.

The problem is that it’s the” bad” kind, imported as a result of rising food and energy costs rather than domestic organic pressures.

Ultra-loose BOJ policies sought to produce” need pull” inflation over the past two decades of QE, and particularly the last ten years, as strong usage drove businesses to raise prices and fat paychecks.

Otherwise, Japan’s inflation is more of a” cost force” type. It owes Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine much more than the loosening of the BOJ. Between 2013 and 2023, Ueda’s herald Haruhiko Kuroda had exactly the opposite goal. The BOJ’s stability plate was inflated by Kuroda to the point where it surpassed the US$ 5 trillion market of Japan.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is pictured at the bank's headquarters in Tokyo on April 27, 2017. Photo: Asia Times files / Reuters / Kim Kyung-Hoon
Haruhiko Kuroda, chancellor of the Bank of Japan, in 2017. Photo: Kim Kyung-Hoon, Reuters, Asia Times records

At the same time, studies indicate that Japan’s sector, which has 126 million people, isn’t benefiting from this” victory” over inflation. Unexpected dynamics such as price increases over wages are harming home confidence.

This pressure explains why Kishida’s acceptance ratings are, at best, in the low 40s. Kishida said the economy is” already however not completely secure” while speaking at the UN General Assembly this week. He stated that Tokyo would unveil” measures to counter prices” and” cultural measures to combat declining population” the following week.

It’s difficult for Ueda to deal with the social climate. Despite the BOJ’s technical independence, the Tokyo administration frequently rebuffs any action that is deemed to be detrimental to the priorities of the government.

That currently includes the balance of Tokyo companies, which recently reached 30-year highs. Yet Berkshire Hathaway, owned by Warren Buffett, has been betting heavily on Japan Inc., giving the country’s equity bourses the attention of the world for the right reasons.

According to strategist John Vail at Nikko Asset Management Co., this story explains why” the BOJ isn’t going to slow the business too much or delayed things too quickly.”

After all, Kuroda’s ten years in power were coming to an end, and he had enough political clout to start normalizing levels. The” bazooka” storms from Kuroda were widely credited with setting report corporate profits in the middle to late 2010s. The Nikkei Stock Average increased by 57 % in 2013.

The Kuroda BOJ put the financial waters to the test in late December by allowing 10-year bond yields to increase by as much as 0.5 %. As the hankering soared, international markets trembled. The BOJ spent the final weeks of 2022 making significant unplanned bond purchases in an effort to control businesses and signal that QE is still present.

When the BOJ suggested that 10-year yields may increase as high as 1 % in late July, Ueda tried his personal frequency test. International markets trembled once more.

Global funds markets were rapidly affected by worries about rising Japanese government bond yields. For starters, Japan became the world’s top bank country after 23 years of prices that were zero to bad. These funds are then used to invest in higher-yielding assets from Brazil to South Africa to Indonesia, a practice known as the” yen carry trade” by punters. Sharp hankering goes therefore frequently slam businesses everywhere.

Due to ultra-low interest rates, yield-hungry Chinese buyers rose to become the largest foreign holders of US government loan. Additionally, among royal investors, the Japanese government is the largest holder of US Treasury stocks.

Furthermore, Powell’s actions in Washington are the subject of such intense focus. The Fed stated this week that its economists believe it won’t be until 2026 that the average annual inflation returns to 2 %.

We’re entering this with an business that appears to have considerable velocity, as Powell put it. We do, however, run a few challenges.

Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, gives a testimony on March 3, 2022, at the Senate Banking Committee hearing titled” The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress.” Tom Williams / Pool

A possible government closing as US lawmakers argue over spending cuts and extra money for Ukraine is one of the immediate challenges. A hit by United Auto Workers may slow down the country’s economy and raise inflationary pressures.

Powell’s team will eventually have to consider what it will do to get that 2 %. Because the majority of US prices after Covid-19 comes from the supply side, Biden’s White House actions to boost productivity and innovation are the best way to address high costs.

However, the Fed is even making up for earlier errors and time lost. Bowing to then-president Donald Trump, who demanded lower US costs, was Powell’s second major mistake. Therefore, the Fed increased economic stimulus in 2019 that the US business didn’t require.

Powell made a mistake once more in 2021 when he claimed that inflation was” transitory.” The Fed rushed to play catch up when it became obvious that it wasn’t.

According to economist Mohamed El-Erian at Allianz, the Fed is currently at a fork in the road as it works to reduce inflation from currently around 3 % to 2 %. The Fed will have to decide whether to support 3 % or higher prices at the end of the year or risk ruining the business, he claims.

El-Erian is concerned that the Fed’s strengthening routine has just recently started to fall off. He issues a warning that by 2024, higher prices will be extremely painful for many companies.

According to El-Erian,” there will be enormous refinancing needs next season if you look at great yield and commercial real estate.” That is the point at which discomfort begins to occur.

There are points in this economy that need to be refinanced but cannot be done so in an orderly manner at these costs, according to El-Erian. Additionally,” some people will tell you that there are numerous disturbed record funds with a large amount of cash on hand.” A match of meat will be played between the two of us.

Fidelity International is also concerned that the US may enter a recession in 2024 due to ongoing debts mortgage issues.

US politicians are an additional wild card for Ueda’s staff in Tokyo. Fitch Ratings deprives the US of AAA status in August, citing rising debt and” regular impairment in standards of management.”

The former allusion was made in reference to Republicans in Congress tinkering with raising the US loan limit. S & amp, P Global Ratings downgraded Washington in 2011 using a similar strategy. Then let’s Fitch.

Ueda’s staff is having visibility issues due to the threat of rising US rates. New economic pressure factors will undoubtedly appear if the BOJ continues to support QE as US yields rise. That may compel the BOJ to use exchange-traded resources to compile yet more Japanese Government Bonds and stocks.

The japanese was, however, surge if the Ueda BOJ turns toward easing, opening a Pandora’s package that Kuroda doesn’t. That could severely reduce Nikkei stock prices and dark Chinese growth prospects.

Ueda made a suggestion this quarter that he is considering entering that field. The BOJ’s focus is on” a quiet exit” that doesn’t slam markets, he told the Yomiuri & nbsp newspaper. He said,” It’s not impossible that we will have enough by the end of the year to anticipate” wage increases in the future.

Ueda claims that” there are some things we can’t view” for the time being. That includes US activities, which may have a greater impact on the timing and course of the BOJ than Ueda in Tokyo. & nbsp,

Continue Reading

China VP Han Zheng warns at UN of 'strong will' on Taiwan

By:
On:
In: Asia

UN NATIONS: China warned the UN on Thursday( Sept 21 ) not to undervalue its” strong will” toward Taiwan, claiming Beijing preferred peaceful means to seize the self-governing democracy. Vice President Han Zheng reiterated Beijing’s position that Taiwan, around which the mainland has staged numerous military exercises & nbsp, constitutesContinue Reading

Philippines on cusp of new South China Sea cold war

By:
On:
In: Asia

The offices of Japan and China in Manila engaged in a possibly extraordinary linguistic fight over the most recent developments in the South China Sea as evidence of the Philippines’ growing value as an important tactical front range for big powers.

Koshikawa Kazuhiko, the Chinese ambassador to the Philippines, raised red flags over reports that Chinese forces had caused significant economic harm across disputed waters.

Numerous Chinese militia ships, according to Spanish authorities, caused” extensive” and” serious damage” to coral reefs and the marine environment in the ocean of the Rozul and Escoda dunes on the Spratly group of islands.

The accusations were made just days after the Philippines accused China of” dangerous tactics” against its supplies expeditions to the Second Thomas Shoal, where a Filipino marine detachment is stationed on the Sierra Madre, which is grounded. & nbsp,

The Chinese minister to Manila said: On the software then renamed X( previously known as Twitter )

alarming reports all around. Our planet’s essence is our oceans, and coral reefs are its vibrant breaths. This protect and safeguard these essential communities for future generations.

The Chinese Embassy quickly responded, accusing Tokyo of” disinformation” while focusing on the author’s recent launch of contaminated water into the Pacific Ocean from the Fukushima nuclear plant. In addition, & nbsp,

But, Manila and its supporters are looking into more drastic steps in the South China Sea in addition to verbal conflicts with Beijing. The Philippines, building on its earlier mediation success against the Eastern powerhouse, is on the verge of bringing legal action against China before relevant international organizations. & nbsp,

potential US implementation

While this is going on, some American authorities are pushing for even more drastic measures, such as sending US troops to Thitu Island, which is occupied by the Philippines, and setting up joint Philippine-US ahead operating bases over contentious terrain like the Second Thomas Shoal. & nbsp,

The South China Sea sea tensions have only gotten worse since Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. ‘ s state visit to Beijing in January, with both factors adopting an exceedingly unyielding position. & nbsp,

In January, Marcos and Xi. Asia Times images

Manila has aggressively scaled back its defense cooperation with Western allies, while Beijing has tightened the noose around Philippine vessels and Philippine-held land features in the disputed areas, most recently releasing a new” 10 – dash-line” map. & nbsp,

Importantly, Manila even adopted a forceful people politics strategy by, among other things, actively exposing alleged Chinese forces harassment and violations of international law in Philippine waters. & nbsp,

The Philippine Coast Guard ( PCG ), which has diligently made footage of its most recent encounters with Chinese counterparts public, reported on Monday that 33 ( August 9 ) and 15 ( September 11 ) Chinese Maritime Militia vessels had been spotted during patrols to the area near Rozul Reef and Escoda Shoal. In addition, & nbsp,

Following guards to the disputed places by the Coast Guard’s BRP Sindangan and CRP Cabra, PCG official Commodore Jay Tarriela stated in a speech that” the surveys conducted in Escoda Shoal revealed visible color of its ocean, strongly indicating that deliberate activities may have been undertaken to change its natural geography.”

The maintenance of the maritime ecosystem in the area showed little to no signs of life, he continued, adding that the presence of crushed corals clearly suggests a possible action of dumping, perhaps involving the same dead coral that were recently processed and cleaned before being returned to the seafloor.

The Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources, the UP Marine Science Institute, and other pertinent organizations gathered in response to integrate the Philippines’ response, along with the Department of National Defense and the departments of Environment and Natural Resources. & nbsp,

The first to announce the news was the Armed Forces of the Philippines Western Command, under the command of Vice-Admiral Albert Carlos, who issued a warning that” we saw that there were no more coral.” In the & nbsp, there was debris and damaged corals.

Legitimate action is taken into account

The prospects of international arbitration against China were seriously discussed by the Department of Justice and the Office of the Solicitor General ( OSG ) in a significant move. & nbsp,

According to Solicitor General Menardo Guevarra,” The OSG is currently conducting a thorough investigation into our lawful options with regard to the West Philippine Sea, including the registration of new complaints with the Permanent Court of Arbitration.” In addition, & nbsp,

In response to widespread public anger over China’s activities in Spanish waters, Justice Secretary Jesus Crispin Remulla adopted an even more forceful position. & nbsp,

” We are advocating the processing of such lawsuits against those responsible for this heinous act, which is environmental death.” We think it’s possible. These situations against China will be pursued because it is no longer appropriate. We have a ton of facts, Remulla said, calling the actions of the Chinese army forces” a evil against humanity” and promising to bring the matter up as soon as possible with the presidential palace.

The updated map of China( 2023 ) displays a 10-dashed line. JAPAN Forward Map

When Beijing’s expansive” nine-dash-line” claims in nearby waters were rejected by an arbitral tribunal at The Hague established by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea( UNCLOS ), the Philippines defeated China in court in 2016. The Asian power was even criticized for its environmentally harmful reclamation efforts in the South China Sea. & nbsp,

Three years later, top Chinese leaders were accused of routinely violating the fundamental rights and livelihoods of Filipino fishermen in the South China Sea in a communication before the International Criminal Court ( ICC) by two former top officials, former Department of Foreign Affairs ( DFA ) secretary Albert del Rosario and former ombudsman and Supreme Court justice Conchita Carpio-Morales. & nbsp,

The two former officials described the” crimes against humanity” China allegedly committed against the Spanish people through” environmentally harmful and improper reclamations and artificial island creating activities” in their 17-page communication.

Authorities in Manila are once again considering new constitutional measures to denounce China’s activities, despite the ICC withdrawing from the situation and its ongoing dispute with the Marcos management over drug-related extrajudicial murders in the Philippines. & nbsp,

However, a number of American watchers have pushed for more drastic action under the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty. & nbsp,

In order to stop further Chinese assertiveness, Ray Powell, the director of a recently established maritime transparency imitative at Stanford University, proposed combined Philippine-US operations in disputed land features, apparently” civic actions.” & nbsp,

According to Blake Herzinger, another American defense analyst, the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement ( EDCA) calls for the Philippines to create a new” permanent structure” over the contentious Second Thomas Shoal and, more importantly, to have it” manned by combined rotational forces from both the Philippine Navy and the US Marine Corps.” & nbsp,

Powell told this author that” the US was caught flat-footed by China’s aggression against its treaty ally [ Philippines ] at Scarborough Shoal in 2012, and then again by the audacious South China Sea artificial-island-building campaign that followed.” Powell agreed that the two allies should seriously consider making significant moves in the disputed areas, particularly over the Second Thomas Schoal. & nbsp,

Before the clock on the Sierra Madre ticks down to zero, Washington and Manila may be heavy in discussions to build their own strategy to raise or circumvent China’s blockade, he continued, alluding to the continuous decline of the based ship. & nbsp,

Philippine officials appear to be ambivalent about like proposals so much. On the one hand, China may have more justification for using more aggressive tactics with untold unintended consequences if there is a risk of & nbsp, unwelcome escalation. Others, on the other hand, are wary of ideas that might give the impression of a” lord advanced” or tactical paternalism. & nbsp,

Greg Poling, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies( CSIS ), advised this author that we should respect the Philippines’ strategic agency as well.

He said, referring to potential refurbishment and manning of new structures in features it already controls across the South China Sea,” Sure, allies should be helpful, but let’s not forget that Manila is more than capable of taking care of[ many of ] its own needs.” & nbsp,

Continue Reading

Chinese stock drop a wakeup call for Xi’s reformers

By:
On:
In: Asia

As the “avoid China” theme gains currency with foreign investors, a daunting question confronts President Xi Jinping: What can Beijing do to change a narrative that risks taking on a life of its own?

As Bank of America reports based on its latest global fund manager survey, this sell-China dynamic has morphed into a leading one among respondents controlling roughly US$616 billion in assets under management. What’s more, the exodus seems to be accelerating even as data suggest Asia’s biggest economy may be stabilizing.

On Monday, the CSI 300 Index dropped to its lowest level of 2023 as selling driven by global funds extended into a fifth straight day. The exodus is now well into a sixth straight week despite Xi’s team either introducing or telegraphing fresh moves to buoy confidence. In other words, a losing streak too long in duration to dismiss.

The challenge for Xi is that explanations for China’s stock rout come from a number of angles. One is a mainland property market showing increased signs of distress. Another is weak consumer confidence following Xi’s draconian Covid-era lockdowns. Rising tensions with the West and with key Asian economies including Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asia are unsettling investors, too.

Concerns about Chinese deflation aren’t helping. They’re colliding with uncertainty about how China can escape efforts by Saudi Arabia to jack up oil prices already elevated by Russia’s Ukraine invasion. Ostensibly aimed at damaging US President Joe Biden’s re-election prospects, Riyadh’s antics could undermine Chinese growth as export markets slow.

The solution is for Xi and Premier Li Qiang to accelerate efforts to build deeper, more transparent and globally trusted capital markets.

Li Qiang and Xi Jinping in a file photo. Image: Twitter / Screengrab

“China faces a prolonged and painful downswing as Beijing battles debt deflation,” says Diana Choyleva, chief economist at Enodo Economics. “While further stimulus is coming, simply throwing more money at the problem will no longer make it go away. China needs to secure markets abroad and retain investment to find its feet amid ideological obstacles to consumer spending.”

On Monday, central bank Governor Pan Gongsheng pledged to accelerate moves to stabilize trade and strengthen the business environment for foreign companies and investors. Pan made his remarks about putting out a bigger welcome mat for foreign capital at a forum attended by executives from BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank AG, HSBC Holdings Plc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Tesla Inc. and UBS Group AG, among others.

Pan signaled that Beijing is mulling steps to level the playing field and strengthen the operating environment for overseas companies.

Last month, the China Securities Regulatory Commission rolled out a series of steps to “boost capital market investor confidence” in bonds and stocks. They include cutting stamp duties on securities transactions and a more selective process for executing initial public offerings. 

Beijing slashed the levies on trades to 0.05% from 0.1%, the first such reduction since 2008. The step is meant to, as the Ministry of Finance explains, “invigorate capital markets and boost investor confidence.” So might the CSRC’s decision to slow the pace of IPOs amid “recent market conditions” characterized by extreme price volatility.

Xi’s regulators are moving to limit share sales by top stakeholders when prices drop below IPO levels or net asset levels. They also cut margin ratios for leveraged trades.

“The scale, force and speed of the measures all beat expectations,” says analyst Pu Han at China International Capital Corp. “The increasing force of the policy tools will lift market confidence, amplifying the positive signal for the market.”

But not positive enough, it seems, as stocks extend losses. In the nearly five weeks since giant developer China Evergrande Group filed for bankruptcy, an even brighter spotlight has been trained on a troubled sector that can generate as much as 30% of China’s gross domestic product. It’s raised fresh questions about China’s growth-at-all-costs development model.

Foreign holdings of China’s equities and debt dropped by nearly US$189 billion from a December 2021 high through the end of the first six months of 2023. Beijing regulators recently telegraphed new steps to deepen capital markets, even soliciting advice from investors including BlackRock Inc. and Bridgewater Associates.

“The weak growth picture is now causing markets to position once again for a yuan devaluation, even though the historical record argues strongly against this possibility and trade-weighted yuan has actually been rising,” says economist Robin Brooks at the Institute of International Economics.

For now, Brooks doubts that’ll happen. “China tried repeatedly to devalue its currency against the dollar in the course of 2015 and 2016. Those attempts proved deeply counterproductive, because capital flight sharply tightened financial conditions, the opposite of what devaluation is supposed to accomplish.”

Given abundant liquidity and sizable debt overhang, Brooks says, “the potential for capital flight is still very much alive, so that devaluation – almost a decade later – still isn’t an option as a cyclical stimulus tool. That said, markets’ growth worries are overdone.”

China, Brooks notes, does face medium-term growth challenges, but recent weakness – especially on the export side – reflects a shift in global demand away from goods and back to services, a cyclical unwind of Covid distortions. “As such,” he concluded, “domestic policy easing – not devaluation – should be sufficient.”

In recent days, the PBOC has shown a greater willingness to cut the amounts of cash banks must hold as reserves. On September 14, it cut the reserve requirement ratio by another 25 basis points. It is injecting liquidity into the banking system to support growth. On Monday alone, the PBOC conducted about US$26 billion of seven-day reverse repos at an interest rate of 1.8%.

The headquarters of the People’s Bank of China, China’s central bank. Photo: Asia Times files / AFP

Economist Carlos Casanova at Union Bancaire Privée thinks the PBOC will likely leave its 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates on hold pending news from Washington. “We believe that PBOC may want to wait until after the Federal Reserve’s September meeting to deliver stimulus,” Casanova explains.

For now, the consensus view is for the Fed to leave rates on hold. But underlying data have been stronger than expected, so “we can’t exclude the risk of a potential 25 basis-point surprise in September,” Casanova says.

“Irrespective of what the Fed votes for,” Casanova says, “US rates should remain higher for longer and the PBOC will have better visibility after this week, enabling it to better calibrate the policy balance to effectively spur aggregate demand without exacerbating depreciatory pressures and stoking capital outflows.”

In general, though, the PBOC is reluctant to ease aggressively, worried it might just incentivize more bad behavior. That bet might now be paying off as Chinese data start to come in firmer than expected.

“All in all, this latest set of key economic data suggests that the risk of a deflationary spiral in China has abated by another notch,” says analyst Kelvin Wong at OANDA.

Analysts at Barclays Bank write that “we look for some downside to USD/CNY in the short run, given a slew of upside economic surprises and the PBOC’s continued effort to cap dollar/yuan upside.” They add that “daily fixings still record large deviations from the market consensus in favor of Chinese yuan strength, suggesting current spot levels still remain uncomfortable for the central bank.”

Still, Xi’s team must step up the pace of reforms to restore overseas investors’ trust in Chinese markets. Since 2013, Xi has pledged to let market forces play a “decisive” role in Beijing decision making. For all China’s promises, it’s still a buyer-beware market as opacity reigns.

In March, Xi entrusted the reform process to Premier Li, who’s since promised to accelerate the moves to diversify growth engines. One key priority is creating deeper and trusted capital markets so that households invest in stocks and bonds in addition to property.

Such retooling is needed to change the narrative that Chinese markets are underpinned by a developing economy with limited liquidity and hedging tools, a giant and opaque state sector and an immature credit-rating system that obscures risk and enables the chronic misallocation of capital.

An immediate challenge for Xi and Li is getting a handle on local governments. Namely, containing risks in the local government financing vehicles (LGFV) space. Beijing must balance defusing a potential liquidity crisis involving some US$9 trillion of off balance-sheet municipal debt with supporting growth. So far, Xi and Li have tried to do so without major public bailouts that might squander progress on reducing financial leverage.

A sudden rash of LGFV defaults could make today’s worries about developer Country Garden seem trivial. That could tip China’s $60 trillion financial system into ever greater turmoil.

In recent years, foreign investors wondered whether China might be facing a Lehman Brothers-like reckoning. Or, given the extreme opacity surrounding off-balance-sheet dealing, some have tried to view China’s risks through the lens of Enron Corp. A better frame of reference may be the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

A small investor watches share prices inside a bank in Hong Kong on December 1, 1998. The 1997-98 Asian financial crisis triggered a market sell-off. Photo: Reuters/Larry Chan
A small investor watches share prices inside a bank in Hong Kong on December 1, 1998. The 1997-98 Asian financial crisis triggered a market sell-off. Photo: Asia Times files / Reuters / Larry Chan

In some ways, the property-overhang dynamic plaguing China’s 2023 echoes Southeast Asia’s predicament 26 years ago. As top-heavy economies from Bangkok to Jakarta to Seoul hit a wall, investors fled, crashing currencies. That made dollar-denominated debt impossible to manage. Default rates exploded across the region.

China’s provinces face a similar problem as property markets that long drove local GDP and tax revenues crater. All this risks setting off any number of chain reactions that Xi and Li must act faster to avoid.

“A collapse in local government investment would be comparable to the economic impact of the crisis in the property market,” says Logan Wright, director of China markets research at Rhodium Group. As such, he adds, the “most important variable impacting” the second-biggest economy “will be the success or failure of local government debt restructuring.”

Clear progress could go a long way to restoring confidence among international money managers.

Since July, Xi and Li have been prodding municipal leaders to curb financial risks and leverage. Steps include allowing local government leaders to raise about $137 billion from bond sales to pay down LGFV debt levels. Beijing is also mulling having the PBOC channel liquidity to the most-at-risk LGFVs.

The trick is doing so without a return to the boom-and-bust cycles China has been trying to end. 

“Massive new spending and/or lending now would make those asset price bubbles even worse,” explains William Hurst, a China development expert at the University of Cambridge. It might just “continue to crowd out consumption and more productive investments. And it would make it more difficult and costly down the road – maybe even prohibitively so – to do this again.”

The trouble with such “inflection points and critical junctures,” Hurst adds, is that “any really big macro-level change will be slower in coming and harder to see in real-time.”

Bo Chen, deputy managing partner at the Deloitte China Corporate Governance Center, says that “the effectiveness of the plan hinges on the government’s ability to balance political and professional interests and retain financial regulatory talent.”

Going forward, Chen adds, “all domestic and foreign financial institutions in China will face a comprehensive and increasingly stringent regulatory environment. It is essential for financial institutions to follow the lead of the regulatory regime reform, reshape and strengthen their corporate governance and be ready for the future.”

That’s why it’s vital for Xi and Li to do a better job of explaining the strategy and the timeline for modernizing the financial system – transparently and credibly. Such openness hasn’t been a hallmark of the Xi era. As Beijing pivots toward big-picture reforms, it’s high time it ensured that skittish global investors get the memo.

Continue Reading

Chandrayaan-3: How important are India's Moon mission findings?

By:
On:
In: Asia
A photo of the Vikram lander taken by Pragyaan rover on WednesdayIsro
Geeta Pandey
Delhi-based BBC News

India made history last month when it was the first nation to launch a celestial objective close to the north pole of the Moon.

The lander and rover of Chandrayaan – 3 — known as Vikram and PragyaAN — stayed in the area for about 10 days, gathering information and images that were then sent back to Earth for analysis.

Experts put them to sleep earlier this month as the Sun started to set on the Moon. The lander-rover needs sunlight to recharge its batteries in order to operate. Isro, the nation’s area research organization, expressed the hope that they would awaken” around 22 September” when the following lunar day begins.

Isro has shared pictures of them as well as regular updates on their whereabouts and studies.

Many Indians are enthusiastic about these updates, but others have been curious about the impact of these findings.

Previous NASA scientist and co-founder of the Delhi-based place education company Stem and Space, Mila Mitra was tasked by the BBC with selecting some of Chandrayaan-3’s key findings and outlining their significance.

The length traveled- and avoided craters

Isro reported that Pragyaan” has traversed over 100m ] 328 feet ] and is continuing” hours before the rover was put to sleep on September 2.

For the six-wheeled vehicle, which travels at a rate of 1 cm per second, that’s quite some distance to travel.

The fact that it has managed to stay healthy and prevent falling into the holes that dot the Moon’s little-explored southern pole region, according to Ms. Mitra, is also important.

She claims that the rover’s unique wheel system, known as the rocker bogie, prevents all of its wheels from moving in unison, allowing it to travel both up and down, but if it falls into a serious crater, it might not be able to exit. Therefore, it’s crucial to force it to circle the holes or even go backwards. And that is carried out by researchers at the command center who are” watching the Moon through the spacecraft’s eyes ,” Ms. Mitra continues.

The command center, which acts on the basis of the images it sends, controls the rover’s activities and it is not automated.

Because of the detour they take, there is a little wait before they arrive at the command center. Pragyaan sends them over to the spacecraft, which then launches them into the spacecraft and passes them on Earth.

The distance covered by the lunar rover

Isro

Presentational white space

Therefore, the risk is a few steps closer by the time the order reaches the rovers.

However, Ms. Mitra adds that the fact that it was able to properly navigate around two craters demonstrates how fast it can communicate with the command center.

hot and cold whipping

A probe on board the Vikram lander’s initial set of data from the lunar topsoil and up to 10 cm( 4 inches ) below the surface revealed a significant temperature difference between the two regions.

It dropped sharply below the surface, dropping to – 10C at 80mm( roughly 3 inches ) below ground, despite the temperature being close to 60C there.

The Moon is renowned for its extremely high temperatures; according to NASA, daytime temperatures near the lunar equator can reach boiling 120C ( 250F ), while nighttime lows can drop to – 130C ( 208F ). Additionally, temperatures of – 250C(- 410F ) have been measured at craters that never experience sunlight and are always covered in shadows.

However, according to Ms. Mitra, this important temperature variation is due to the fact that the solar regolith, or Moon’s soil, is a very effective insulator.

This may imply that it could be used to create place colonies to block out heat, cold, and radiation. She claims that by doing this, it may act as a natural habitat metal.

Additionally, it might be a sign that there is water snow below the floor.

An explanation of the Moon’s development

Numerous chemicals, including aluminum, magnesium, copper, chromium, platinum, titanium, golden, and air, were discovered when a laser detection mounted on the vehicle was used to measure the chemical composition of the lunar surface near the south pole.

But according to experts, the most significant studies are related to sulfur. The instrument’s” first-ever in-situ” measurement in the initial space” explicitly confirms” the presence of sulfur, according to Isro.

Sulfur’s presence on the Moon has been known since the 1970s, but according to scientists, it is” a tremendous success” that the vehicle was able to measure sulfate on its own surface rather than inside a mineral or as part of crystal.

The presence of sulfur in the ground, according to Ms. Mitra, is important on a number of counts.

This will advance our understanding of how the Moon was formed, how it evolved, and its geographical because sulfur typically comes from mountains.

It also suggests that there is water ice on the lunar area, and since sulfur is a good fertilizer, it is great news because it can aid in plant growth if there are habitats there.

Was there actually a moonquake?

The Vikram spacecraft carries a device that measures vibrations coming from both the vehicle and its activities as well as its own research and experiments.

Isro claimed that the Instrument for Lunar Seismic Activity ( Ilsa ) was recording” an event, appearing to be a natural one” and looking into its source while keeping its ear to the ground.

The lander recorded an event "appearing to be a natural one"

Isro

There could be a number of explanations for this, Ms. Mitra adds, adding that this event’s bounty was much greater and consequently significantly stronger.

” Space debris, like a rock or an asteroid, could be hitting the edge.” Or it might be tectonic, making it the first Moonquake to be observed since the 1970s. The landscape and what lies beneath the Moon’s floor could then be explained in that case.

What exactly is celestial blood?

Many people questioned what it meant when Isro announced on X( previously Twitter ) that a probe on the lander had completed the” first – ever measurements of the near-surface lunar plasma environment” in the south polar region and found it to be” relatively sparse.”

According to Ms. Mitra, the term” blood” describes the presence of charged particles in the atmosphere that could obstruct Chandrayaan-3’s radio wave communication.

It is great news that it is extremely limited or skinny because it will significantly lessen radio communication.

The rover hopped when

Isro referred to the Vikram lander’s final act before being put to sleep in early September as a” fly study.”

The lander was” commanded to fire its engines, it rose up by about 40cm ] 16 inches ] and landed at a distance of 30 to 40 cm ,” according to the agency.

On Monday Isro released images of the pre- and post-hop of Vikram lander

The aircraft could be used in the potential for human missions or to return samples to Earth thanks to this” successful trial ,” it was added.

May India’s future space plans benefit greatly from this quick hop, then?

The” hop tested restarting the engine after a lunar landing to make sure it is still operating fine ,” according to Ms. Mitra.

Since the testing and actual lift-off have so far only come from Earth, it also showed that the ship has the” capacity for raise – away in a celestial soil environment ,” she continues.

YouTube then hosts BBC News India. To subscribe to and view our documentaries, explanations, and features, click here.

Presentational grey line

Learn more about India’s lunar vision from the BBC:

Presentational grey line

Related Subjects

More information about this tale

Continue Reading

Kinderland alleged abuse cases ‘not reflective’ of wider preschool sector

By:
On:
In: South-East Asia

HELPING Academics, PRIORITIZING A CHILD’S WELL-BEING,

On Monday, Ms. Sun acknowledged that some members were worried that the” heavy” workload for educators might cause such” adverse incidents” and increase their stress. & nbsp,

The Early Childhood Development Agency ( ECDA ) is working to” improve the career proposition and working conditions of preschool educators” in order to support educators, according to Ms. Sun.

These actions include raising their pay, offering solutions for expert growth, and offering programs to ensure their wellbeing. & nbsp,

According to Ms. Sun, the ECDA made an announcement in October of last year to increase educator pay so that it would be” market-competitive and commensurate with their growing competencies.”

We do this because we are aware of and proud of the advancements in the training and expertise of our 24, 000-strong workforce over the years, and we want to keep the high-caliber educators we have and draw more people to visit ,” she said. In addition, & nbsp,

She added that the government will continue to apply the salary increases in 2024 after working with government-funded users this year.

According to Ms. Sun, ECDA also gives instructors the tools they need to manage their professional growth, advance their knowledge, and make plans for professional development. & nbsp,

Moreover, EDCA has been working to enhance working conditions, such as eliminating the Saturday need for childcare centers. This significant change, which was made public in July of this year, was intended to give educators” better work-life balance and enough rest to recharge.” & nbsp, It will go into effect on January 1st, 2025. & nbsp,

More actions are being considered, such as the ECDA’s review of preschools’ practices on” non-contact – time” to give teachers a break from their regular duties to” refresh and complete non-teaching tasks ,” she added. & nbsp,

The business will soon be informed of the review’s findings.

Continue Reading

World isn’t ready for what Ueda’s trying to say

By:
On:
In: Asia

The fact that Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida believes he is in charge of Asia’s No. 2 market is what surprises me the most about his reshuffle of his case.

Basically, that would be Kazuo Ueda, who assumed leadership of the Bank of Japan in April. Governor Ueda hints at a scheme change that, if implemented, will undoubtedly roil global industry, making this crucial difference more important than ever.

It’s encouraging that Kishida announced fresh help actions to restrain economic development on Wednesday. Data that was made public 24 hours later revealed that secret machine orders decreased by a bigger-than-expected 1.1 % in July month over month. The fortnight saw a 5.3 % decline in production purchases.

Overall,” unsteady domestic demand, higher inflation, and policy uncertainty are hazards to the budget view ,” says economist Stefan Angrick of Moody’s Analytics.

This is hardly what Kishida and his dwindling approval ratings require as his administration approaches the two-year tag. This is especially true given that inflation is currently outpacing wage growth and that China’s decline is endangering trade industry.

With the next reshuffle of his 710-day-old era, Kishida aimed to change the depressing narrative. Strangely, he believed that simply renaming his underperforming economic staff may attract investors from around the world.

However, all that kept Shunichi Suzuki in his positions as finance minister, Yasutoshi Nishimura as secretary of business, and Sanae Takaiche as financial security minister did was spread misinformation in Tokyo as the world’s markets burned.

However, it doesn’t really matter when Ueda’s staff at BOJ office is in charge of the economy. Ueda has been using China’s problems and negative tendencies as recent wildcards for the future of Japan. & nbsp,

Ueda gave the first indication that a quantitative easing( QE ) policy change might be forthcoming over the weekend.

The BOJ’s target is on” a silent return” that doesn’t destroy industry, Ueda told the Yomiuri paper. He claimed that a slight change in July’s policy was merely an effort to” shift the balance between the results and side results” of QE.

The japanese is a trend that devalues. Photo: Facebook

Looking ahead, Ueda remarked,” It’s not improbable that we will have enough by the end of the year to anticipate wage increases going forward.” He continues,” There are some things we don’t see right now ,” such as potential fresh reverberations from China or the US.

It was Ueda’s first attempt at telegraphing a level change in the months ahead, despite appearing harmless. Economists at & nbsp and Deutsche Bank made the prediction that negative prices would disappear by January and the BOJ’s” yield curve control” would be eliminated by October as a result.

International businesses that have relied on completely Chinese currency since long before the Covid – 19 epidemic, the 2008 Lehman Brothers problems, and the terrorist attacks on the US on September 11, 2001, experienced something of an earthquake as a result of all of this.

Japan has risen to the top of the global rankings for bank and nbsp since 1999. Investors have a long history of taking out low-cost loans in hankering and using those funds to purchase higher-yielding goods from Argentina to South Africa to India to New Zealand. The leverage that these trades provide explains why panic may spread across asset classes due to unexpected yen movements.

Equity experts at IwaiCosmo Securities wrote in a word that, in response to Ueda’s remarks,” the strength of the yen seemed to have served as ominous for the business.” ” The increase in domestic bond yields boosted sales of sizable semiconductor securities, which ultimately drove the industry down.”

According to researcher Lee Hardman at MUFG Bank, the odds are that in the short term,” more aggressive speech from the BOJ and the increased risk of interference though should help to lessen the level of any further japanese selloff.”

However, in the long run, it is impossible to stress test with any real accuracy the specter of a significant funding source since the late 1990s & nbsp effectively vanishing.

What does it mean for commodity prices, yields, and financial stability if big central banks start tightening as well since the BOJ is the last of them to continue supplying liquid to global markets? At Rabobank, planner Benjamin Picton makes this claim.

Given that there is little chance of China coming to the rescue as it has in the past, Picton said,” It’s no surprise that other central banks are beginning to second guess themselves if the last surprise absorption is soon to go away.”

Ueda doesn’t want Japan to be held responsible for the next global financial crisis, according to many analysts who advise precaution. In other words, yield-curve control on the & nbsp may end this year, but negative rates will persist for a while.

According to strategist Naomi Muguruma at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, the yen’s depreciation has been slower than last year and is not regarded as a” speculative move ,” making it difficult to carry out an intervention. ” Ueda’s pessimistic remarks might be meant to restrain yen loss.”

Wave growth continues to be poor and weakening, according to Commonwealth Bank of Australia planner Joseph Capurso. In the coming weeks, we anticipate that the dollar-yen’s upward momentum will begin.

The income issue is a problem in and of itself. The fact that inflation increases are outpacing progress in hourly income is a major factor in why Kuroda’s authorization ratings are at best in the lower 40s and why he reshuffled his Cabinet.

He may address the issue by implementing policies to counteract imported rate increases, boost national competitiveness, or encourage businesses to split profits with employees.

However, Kishida’s Liberal Democratic has chosen to allow a weaker renminbi take the lead and violent BOJ easing since the 1990s. This contemporary approach to trickle-down economics was intended to start a positive income cycle that may increase consumption and further strengthen Japan Inc. That isn’t how it has turned out.

Ueda now faces the challenge of turning back the hands of history and beginning the normalization of level plan without making things worse. & nbsp,

Although all major markets gave unaccountable central bankers the keys back in the middle of the 1990s, none did so more fully than Japan. However, during Governor Masaru Hayami’s 1998 – 2003 term, the BOJ expanded on its economic hegemony into a full-fledged mission creep.

Hayami pioneered QE when the BOJ became the first significant economic power to reduce interest costs to zero in 1999, as Japan’s bad mortgage problems grew worse due to recession. Hayami experimented with bad borrowing expenses in 2000 and 2001.

Masaru Hayami, a former chancellor of the BOJ, invented QE. Asia Times Files, AFP, and Toshifumi Kitamura are shown in the image.

Some may have predicted that the BOJ’s role in the economy would become so absolute or that it would result in a long-term dedication to preserving the living standards of 126 million people twenty-four years ago.

The final four BOJ rulers were unable to solve this puzzle’s mechanics. Governor Toshihiko Fukui attempted to end QE and raise prices thrice, to be exact, in 2006 and 2007. However, the ensuing recession happened immediately, and political retaliation followed even more quickly.

Masaaki Shirakawa restored QE when he took over as ruler in 2008. Haruhiko Kuroda arrived at BOJ Central in 2013 with the goal of supervising QE in order to end depreciation once and for all.

Yan and hoarded goods were poured into Kuroda’s global financial system. Kuroda’s decisions to corner bond and stock markets increased the BOJ ‘ balance sheet to$ 5 trillion in just five years, surpassing the size of the Japanese gross domestic product.

All eyes were on how Kuroda may start to wander down the BOJ’s balance strip in late 2022, as his decade in power was coming to an end. Rather, Kuroda punted, handing the unpleasant task to Ueda, who had received training from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and was regarded by many as adding new perspective to the riddle.

However, a bubble of confidence that has been inflated by both the public and private sectors is one of the negative effects of more than two years of zero costs. By serving as Japan’s ATM, 24 / 7 & nbsp, and largess, the BOJ dampened the spirit of the country.

Business CEOs lacked the motivation to invent, restructure, or take risks on their own. Government officials did nothing but watch as the BOJ’s sudden bursts of liquid fueled growth. In the meantime, the popularity of Chinese government bonds increased, exposing everyone.

Banks, businesses, local governments, pension and insurance funds, universities, endowments, the & nbsp, a massive postal system, and retirees will all suffer if Japanese government bond yields increase to 2 %.

Japanese women wearing kimonos ride a roller coaster during their Coming of Age Day celebration at a fun park in Tokyo in January 2017. Photo: Reuters/Kim Kyung-Hoon
For many in Japan, the good times had come to an end with QE. Asia Times Files / Agencies image

It has left a destructive dynamic that discourages almost everyone from selling debt:” mutually amply & nbsp, assured amplified.” Tokyo will have more trouble paying off the largest debt load in the developed world, which accounts for about 265 % of GDP, the higher provides go.

Some people may enjoy the process of unraveling 24 decades of zero rates in a country that is completely dependent on the BOJ’s financial well-being.

However, Ueda might be prepared to start yanking away the legendary creswell. Furthermore, it’s unclear whether any economy, business, or investor is really prepared for the impending market chaos brought on by Ueda.

William Pesek can be followed on X at @ WilliamPess

Continue Reading

Wild, woolly and traitorous race for Indonesia presidency

By:
On:
In: Asia

JAKARTA- For the better part of a month, Prabowo Subianto, the protection minister and leader of the Great Indonesian Movement Party, had been debating whether to nominate Muhaimin Iskander as his running mate for the national election in February of next year.

The Golkar and National Mandate( PAN ) parties recently joined Prabowo’s campaign team, and despite the fact that the two parties collectively held more than the 20 % of parliamentary seats required to nominate him as a candidate, Iskander eventually lost his usefulness. And he was aware of it.

At that point, cunning president of the National Democrat Party( Nasdem) and media tycoon Surya Paloh pounced, luring Iskander away to join opposition candidate Anies Baswedan in a shift that left spectators wondering how much President Joko Widoo contributed to it and why.

What transpired at meetings between the president and the bearded business in the days prior— who was the first older politician to support Widoo in 2014 before abruptly abandoning their ruling coalition and supporting Baswedan earlier this year— remains a mystery.

Paloh acknowledged that the leader had asked about Baswedan’s potential running partner when they first met on July 18, but he made no further mention of it. On August 31, two days prior to Baswedan’s vice president news, they met at the house and discussed Iskander once more.

The strange turn of events, which occurred just before the official registration of candidates for next month, caused more questions than it did answers about the game the ever-popular Widoo may be playing in secret to increase his influence after reaching the end of his two-term limit in October of next year. & nbsp,

As a nominal member of Megawati Sukarnoputri’s ruling Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle ( PDI – P ), Widdo has already caused controversy by refusing to publicly back Ganjar Pranowo, who recently served as governor of Central Java for ten years.

At the upcoming presidential election, Ganjar Pranowo may hold the ruling PDI – P’s banner. Photo: Twitter

In fact, given the hostilities between the leader and Megawati, there is a lot of rumor that Prabowo rejected Iskander because he wants to run for vice president with State Enterprise Minister Erik Thohir— a nearby Widodok aide.

Thohir, 53, who is ostensibly connected to PAN, is a rich businessman who was elected president of the Indonesian Football Association and is well known for effectively hosting the 2018 Asian Games.

The way officials, including Prabowo, have suggested they need his approval before making any moves that may affect the contest to select his successor has even seemed to irritate Widodok, who felt obliged to address his fence-sitting.

” There has been no training or path from Pak Lura( village headman)” is the standard response when asked who the president or vice president may be, according to a complaint made by Widdo next month.

” I didn’t understand what they meant. I finally realized it was me, so I responded,” I’m not the head of a village, just the president of the Republic of Indonesia.” I must emphasize that I am not the leader of any democratic party or partnership.

Former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s Democrat Party ( DP ) broke away from the opposition camp and offered itself to one of the two front-runners, Prabowo or Pranowo, after Baswedan confirmed Iskander as his vice presidential candidate.

An unhappy Democrat speech claimed Baswedan had on some occasions promised he would select Yudhoyono’s child, party chairman Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, as his running mate, the next time in a publicly – released written letter on August 25.

It is unclear how Paloh was able to use for effect, but he had just portrayed the 45 – time – old Yudhoyono Jr as a social amateur who had not got beyond the rank of major before his parents cut short his military career in 2016 and compelled him to enter politics.

” Anies is so dependent on Surya Paloh and he follows him whatever he decides”, says a DP source, noting that while the Democrats can go elsewhere, the other coalition partner, the right – leaning Justice and Prosperity Party ( PKS ), is bound solely to Baswedan because of its strong conservative Muslim following

Anies Baswedan( 3rd – L ) greets people at Monas Square during a meeting rally held by 212 Rally Alumni in Jakarta, December 2, 2018. Photo: Asia Times Files / Anton Raharjo / Anadolu Agency

Experts believe that on the floor, at least, Megawati needs the Democrats more than Prabowo, especially in an obvious second round of voting when the expected throwing of Baswedan in the first round on February 24 did see most of his followers voting for Prabowo.

So far, the extremely cruel Megawati doesn’t throw off her lingering enmity towards Yudhoyono Sr, which goes back to when he defeated her in the 2004 presidential race, the region’s second primary election since the 1998 fall of therefore – president Suharto.

Just last month, PDI – P diplomats broke the ice by initiating a meeting with the Democrats. But since then, Yudhoyono Sr has confirmed Megawati is only prepared to deal with her brother, adding:” My personal connection with Ibu Mega is bad”.

More than that, a well – placed Democrat cause says the PDI – P administration has made any great – level talks between the two parties centered on the Democrats declaring their previous backing for Pranowo. ” It’s hard for us to take that”, he told Asia Times. ” It’s not dignified”.

Prabowo has made no such needs, but then he is conscious that the Democrats ‘ personal objectives rest entirely on securing a share of Cabinet content and nothing more. Under Indonesia’s social laws, parties must go to a partnership in a presidential election.

The sight of Yudhoyono Sr and Prabowo singing up this year stands in stark contrast to Megawati’s continuing refusal so far to join the 74 – time – old Democrat benefactor in people. As one close aide put it:” It’s both from her. We don’t have a problem in most”.

With the General Election Commission( KPU) bringing forth and shortening the subscription window for political and evil presidential hopefuls, Prabowo and Megawati today have between October 10 – 16 to make their decisions.

Megawati appears to be showing a lot more pragmaticism by leaning towards & nbsp, Ridwan Kamil, 51, a professional architect and the innovative former West Java governor who ended his term on September 5 and only recently held a long meeting with the matriarch at her downtown residence.

If he is Megawati’s chosen one, it would be the first day governors from surrounding provinces have run on the same solution and indicate a growing new growth in national politics where figures from the Jakarta wealthy are reduced to playing second fiddle to provincial politicians on a path blazed by Widodo himself.

The former Suharto political machine now holds a record low of 12.3 % of parliamentary seats, down from 21.5 % in 2004. Kamil only joined Golkar last January in an effort to help stop the third-ranked party’s waning fortunes in legislative general elections.

Golkar president Airlangga Hartarto, the financial integrating minister, and other group leaders have reportedly stated that they will not prevent their favorite new recruit from accepting the position, despite the fact that the celebration is now aligned with Prabowo.

Kamil’s popularity even spreads to other elements of Java and Sulawesi, where he is also known as the creator of Makassars distinctive, orange-painted 99 Domes Mosque, in addition to having a better chance of winning more votes for Pranowo from Arab voters in the popular West Java.

Analysts are interested in how PKB, which is frequently regarded as Nahdlatul Ulma’s( NU ) political arm and has supported Baswedan from the start and primarily draws on the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt as its primary sources of ideological and organizational inspiration, will collaborate with PKS.

While PKB citizens are concentrated in the NU homeland of west and Central Java, the majority of PKS’s help comes from West Java and West Sumatra, where Widoo suffered significant losses in 2014 and 2019.

Analysts now think Prabowo will lose the presidential election, even though coalition size is not a crucial consideration. The controversy that followed Iskandar’s switch of horses only served to increase rumors that the applicant had chosen Thohir or Mahfud MD, the main political secretary and another dependable member of Widoho.

Prabowo Subianto, the defence secretary of Indonesia, is currently leading polls for the country’s upcoming president. Image: Screengrab, Twitter, and Benar

The president perhaps see Thohir as a bridge between his leadership and the next one, using his sanction as an effective inducement, after Widodok’s supporters’ attempts to gauge his chances of winning reelection were soundly rejected.

As he continues to fend off square – bird standing in his last year, Widodok is clearly still very focused on securing his reputation, particularly his US$ 33 billion plan to move the federal funds from Jakarta to East Kalimantan.

How else can the Constitutional Court’s decision to reduce the presidential maximum time from 40 to 35 be explained? This decision is widely regarded as a move to give Widod Obesson, 35-year-old Solo town mayor Gibran Rakabuming, the opportunity to run mate in the 2024 election. & nbsp,

That is unlikely to happen, primarily because pursuing such a blatantly political objective would jeopardize his reputation in the same way that he would try to win another term in office.

Continue Reading