Moves – Page 20 – Sure A Not

Governance failures, alleged misuse of funds at Malaysian government agency HRD Corp add urgency to labour reforms

On: July 15, 2024

In: Asia

Additionally, according to the PAC report, the government is in a difficult position because it only has the consent of both parties to discontinue its IT method contract with Bestinet.

The Centre to Combat Corruption and Cronyism ( C4), a prominent local anti-graft watchdog, said that the government’s continued reliance on Bestinet’s Foreign Workers Centralised Management System ( FWCMS ) raised serious questions and reflected poorly on the Home Ministry.

Despite having no contract to begin with, Home Minister Saifuddin Nasution Ismail shockingly announced on June 24 that the government had decided to extend Bestinet’s commitment to operate the FWCMS for another three times. How did this choice by the state also come about in light of the numerous cases of mismanagement? C4 said in a speech.

Watch carefully how the Anwar management steps to reform the government’s troubled labor sector, which is crucial to bringing fresh dynamism to a slow economy, is being watched.

” The current government, which was in the opposition before, knows the problems” ,&nbsp, said Mr Charles Santiago, a former elected MP who is part of a government-private sector working committee involved in bringing change to the country’s migrant labour recruitment system. &nbsp,

Because of our dependent on cheap international labor and little consideration to upskilling our workforce, he said,” a broad overhaul of our labor sector should be at the forefront of the president’s form agenda.”

LABOUR IS BIG BUSINESS

Labour is a lucrative industry in Malaysia, and it has long been implicated in dark support politics.

A multi-billion industrial complex stuffed with companies offering education in smaller batches or in many wider settings, through conferences and seminars has been born as a result of the country’s decades-old addiction to cheap labor. &nbsp,

Separately, the immigrant labor selection system has opened up opportunities for labor brokers working with nations that export labor, agents representing native employers, and so-called “runners,” who are usually people or businesses that assist with the approval procedure with government agencies. &nbsp,

In these parts of the market, HRD Corp and Bestinet enjoy unrivalled supremacy. &nbsp,

Left activists have long argued that the whole system of mentoring and international recruitment is riddled with problem, mismanagement, and human rights abuses, and has been supported by politicians and effective business enterprises as a result of the large sums of money involved.

” The ( alleged ) &nbsp, abuses at HRD Corp and Bestinet have been going on for a long time, particularly with funding politically-linked groups and doing things outside its purview of skills development for workers”, Mr N Gopal Kishnam, who heads the Labour Law Reform Coalition, a group of unions and non-governmental organisations, told CNA.

The Big Read: More drivers jumping on the EV bandwagon, but obstacles remain as infrastructure tries to keep pace

By: Marcus Ching

On: July 14, 2024

In: South-East Asia

The first obstacle, as Mr Lai had experienced, is to get much people ‘ approval. Mr Kevin Sim, mind of business at EV cable controller Eigen Mobility, said:” One of the most common concerns is residents, typically internal-combustion motor car drivers, will lament at taking away park lots for EV paying,Continue Reading

Lop Buri school chief accused of serial molestation

By: Barkar Nash

On: July 11, 2024

In: South-East Asia

Kids group together to file complaints with authorities, school producer transferred pending investigation

PUBLISHED: 11 Jul 2024 at 15: 49

According to training officials, the school chairman in Lop Buri sexually molested many students, and police are looking into allegations that the man has been moved to another school pending their own analysis.

Families of 27 individuals took their children to the Chai Badan district police station on Wednesday night to lodge problems with the officers.

One family, who was only identified as Sanor, testified to the authorities that the alleged abuse had dissuaded her daughter and other children from attending school. According to Ms. Sanor, this prompted the kids to question what had happened to their children.

The kids informed their parents that the university director had abused them at the university. He frequently entered a place where students were changing clothes and frequently touched their bodies while hugging them.

After learning about the subject, the families teamed up to take their kids to record the police issues, she said.

Following the investigation, Chai Badan area main Phanupong Siri met with the kids ‘ families and Chai Badan students.

Families have been questioned by police, and therapists are being hired to assist with the student questioning. The school where the incidents were reported teaches students in grades kindergarten through third grade ( Grade 9) ).

The accused producer has denied the allegations, blaming a tutor for being behind the walk, Television Channel 7 reported.

The chairman claimed that the professor was upset after receiving numerous instructions for taking off from the school. He claimed that the professor had been spreading lies to tarnish his reputation.

Thanu Wongchinda, secretary-general of the Office of the Basic Education Commission ( Obec), said on Thursday that he had received information about issues involving 12 students so much.

He mandated that a fact-finding council be established in the Lop Buri training office and submitted a report within seven days. If there is clear information, a administrative panel may be set up to take action against the chairman, he added.

Mr. Thanu vowed to bring justice to all parties. He claimed that, pending the results of investigations, he had now transferred the producer.

NATO summit matched by rise of rival SCO – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: July 10, 2024

In: Asia

At NATO’s 75th commemoration summit there has been, as you’d hope, a lot of focus on Russia’s war against Ukraine. It’s unquestionably the most significant immediate concern to NATO, and it has wider implications for the rest of the world.

A much bigger problem is looming, though, beyond the stories of the Ukraine war. Without a doubt, the world is witnessing a change in the world’s current global order. Russia and China appear to be working together toward a common goal: a West-to-West ally.

The latest manifestation of this change was the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO ) on July 3-4 in Astana, Kazakhstan.

The SCO has its origins in the” Shanghai Five” system, established by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in 1996. This morphed five years later into the SCO, with the addition of Uzbekistan.

India and Pakistan joined in 2017, Iran in 2023, and Belarus was admitted at the Astana conference next week. Mongolia and Afghanistan are designated as observers by the SCO. One of 14 so-called speech companions across Asia, the Middle East, and the South Caucasus is a NATO member, Turkey.

China and Russia’s ambitions are obvious, and there are indications that they want to strengthen their position as the SCO’s formidable counterpoint. The two key leaders ‘ speeches and media comments tell a better account of why the SCO should be taken more seriously than the collection of roughly 25 documents and declarations adopted at the conference, the majority of which are – at best – statements of purpose.

Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, made the opening remarks during a meeting with Xi Jinping, the president of China, to congratulate them on the status of their ally. He said:” Russia-China relationships, our detailed relationship and strategic assistance, are going through the best period in their past”.

Putin’s support was reciprocated by Xi, who reaffirmed that Russia and China” should continue to uphold the original goal of lasting friendship and make unwavering efforts to protect our legitimate rights and interests and uphold the fundamental principles governing international relationships.”

Putin reaffirmed his conviction that a “multipolar earth has become a reality” in an address to the SCO mountain. He further claimed that” the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and BRICS ( the trading bloc comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa ) are the main pillars of this new world order”, adding:” These associations are powerful drivers of global development processes and the establishment of genuine multipolarity”.

The statement made by Xi,” under the new circumstances of the new time, the vision of our business is frequently favorite, and that SCO associate states have friends across the world, resonated with me.”

Xi continued by stating that the SCO needs” to have a full set of measures under the protection assistance systems, because more lines of defense did give us more safety.”

Challenging the West

Perhaps this is the most eminent sign that Russia and China’s positions on the SCO as a potential counterpoint to NATO are beginning to align. There are also other ( less obvious ) indications that China and Russia are using different strategies to improve their standing in relation to the West.

The plan appears to be to try to stifle NATO and create friction between US and Western people. There are already moves eager to promote ties with NATO’s more Russia- and China-friendly part states, such as Hungary and Slovakia.

UN photo showing secretary general, António Guterres, addressing the SCO. — Push for harmony and globalism: the UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, addresses the SCO. UN Photo / Ospan Ali

In their standard statements, Xi and Putin both stressed the importance of Eurasia. This means lessening the part of the US in the region for both of them.

The main goal for Putin is” a new system of bilateral and multilateral promises of social security in Eurasia.” The long-term goal is to “progressively step out the European region’s military occurrence.”

For Xi, the course is more economical and focuses more on boosting trade and EU infrastructure ties. China will do this by promoting its Belt and Road Initiative and its transportation corridors, as he did on the day of the Device summit in Kazakhstan during his state-of-the-art attend.

However, it’s not entirely clear whether Putin and Xi will succeed in making the SCO a reliable safety rival to NATO. The SCO lacks NATO’s Article 5 social protection agreements.

Its interior structures are dysfunctional, and the only institutional safety task is the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (SCO RATS), which is in charge of tackling terrorism.

Afghanistan continues to be the main area of concern for the SCO, which is also highlighted by UN Secretary-General António Guterres ‘ remarks at the SCO summit, in which he urged leaders to” the central goal of our multilateral system must be peace.” He emphasized that pushing for that purpose requires both the SCO’s effect and its obligation.

Additionally, the SCO suffers from internal conflict between code organizational members. Kashmir continues to polarize India and Pakistan. Also, India and China have a longstanding – and sometimes violent – conflict over boundary issues. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who was not even present at the conference, preferred to take his foreign minister with a thinly veiled remark to his two relatives.

However, it would be wrong for the West to view the SCO as being unimportant. It has a larger population than NATO, both in terms of place and people, and has a significant hold in Europe thanks to Belarus and Russia. And its nations make up 30 % of the world GDP.

If China and Russia do n’t act more like Moscow and Beijing, their influence will continue to grow and expand throughout Eurasia as their ties become more closely knit.

Stefan Wolff is Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original content.

Is Bank of Japan finally ready to really raise rates? – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: July 9, 2024

In: Asia

TOKYO – After decades of brain scams, prevarications and disappointments, is the Bank of Japan suddenly on the cusp of a reputable financial tightening?

Buyers are betting that the BOJ’s policy meeting on July 30 will be the turning point for the world’s markets for a long time. One important factor is that May saw the highest base pay increase since 1993, which may seal the deal for a rate increase.

Are industry right? Only time will tell, given that gamblers ‘ terrible track record of predicting BOJ spins. The BOJ has pledged unwaveringly for 15 years that it would “normalize” interest rates and end the first quantitative easing ( QE ) experiment that was started in 2001.

Now, though, the standard rate is only 0.1 % and QE continues to offer the most aggressive corporate welfare&nbsp, system history has ever known.

Haruhiko Kuroda, BOJ government from 2013 to 2023, passed up many opportunities to move up QE. Even in the homestretch of his generation at the helm, Kuroda lacked the persistence to commence “tapering” the BOJ’s US$ 5 trillion harmony plate.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has jumped at every chance to put a considerable tightening shift on the scoreboard since taking office in April 2023. Or even just to reduce the impact of buying of bonds and stocks.

Does that change later this month, there’s a bigger query worth asking: are international markets available for the BOJ to reach the brakes, especially as the yen tests the 162 level against the US dollar?

Given that the BOJ has been holding prices at or close to zero since 1999, it’s impossible to say. Since next, Japan has become the best bank country. The japanese carry industry, a method of borrowing money in yen and investing those funds in higher-yielding assets around the world, quickly gained popularity as a result.

Therefore the risk that the renminbi might surge immediately, pulling the rug out from under businesses everywhere. Any tinge of a japanese boom in recent years shocked bond and stock markets from New York to Johannesburg to Seoul.

This threat complicates Ueda’s decision-making math. If the BOJ acts very confidently, it may collapse international markets. Act to cautiously, and the BOJ will struggle even more to find a way out of QE.

Kazuo Ueda, the government of the Bank of Japan, is in a QE hot seat. Image: Twitter / Screengrab

” For all the chat of how the world economy is holding up better than expected, one big business is not performing in line with that narrative”, says Helen Besier, scholar at Moody’s Analytics.

A unique next update to GDP data revealed that the year started with a larger recession than previously thought in what was yet another difficult week for the Chinese economy. Moreover, the besieged money hit its lowest level since mid-1986″, she said.

Besier adds that “business assurance, as measured by the Bank of Japan‘s Tankan review, did hang constant, but the level top-line display masked failure in nonmanufacturers, mainly service companies. To cover the month, travel-adjusted consumption exercise in May was smooth than April”.

There is no denying that 25 times of zero costs and 23 years of quantitative easing have caused more harm than good.

QE was a last-ditch effort to revive a listless person, and it was never intended to be a permanent component of Japan’s financial environment. Over time, nevertheless, Japan Inc required bigger and bigger quantities to be aware.

Now, years of strong economic aid have deadened Japan’s dog spirits. It has reduced the necessity for the 12 governments that led Japan since the late 1990s to reduce bureaucracy, release labour markets, stage playing fields, support a startup boom and empower women in the workforce.

Companies were compelled to innovate, restructure, and take significant risks as a result of excessive stimulus. The BOJ continued to produce bigger and bigger punchbowls rather than reverse course or simply throttle back on liquidity.

All of this makes the BOJ reluctant to allow the yen’s declines to deepen. Sho Nakazawa, a strategist at Morgan Stanley MUFG, predicts that a BOJ adjustment toward tighter policy could result from a further yen depreciation.

Yet since December,” the yen has steadily weakened even though the rate gap is no higher than it was back then”, notes economist Richard&nbsp, Katz, author of&nbsp,” The Contest for Japan’s Economic Future”.

As such, notes Udith Sikand, analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics,” a political head&nbsp, of&nbsp, steam is building in&nbsp, Japan&nbsp, for a change in the way policymakers handle the yen”.

With the currency now down 31 % against the US dollar since Prime Minister Fumio Kishida took office in October 2021, the yen’s weakness has been instrumental in keeping&nbsp, Japan’s inflation rate above the central&nbsp, bank’s 2 % target for the last two years.

” After a decades-long battle against deflation, this might have been considered a policy success”, Sikand says. ” But&nbsp, Japan’s politicians are fast rediscovering that if there is one thing voters detest, it is price rises.

A change in exchange rate policy is all but certain as a result of survey respondents now citing inflation as the main reason for the Kishida government’s terrible approval ratings.

Some of that pressure may be coming from Japan’s national security establishment. The disappearing yen is making it harder for Tokyo to ramp up military spending, as per Kishida’s 2022 plan to more than double defense expenditures.

That 43 trillion yen budget ( more than the equivalent of US$ 300 billion at the time ), spaced out over five years, was aimed at countering China’s military rise.

Fumio Kishida, the prime minister of Japan, appears shaky. Image: Twitter Screengrab

As Japan’s purchasing power evaporates, Tokyo is already canceling orders for military aircraft. This dynamic wo n’t help Kishida’s odds of hanging onto his job when the Liberal Democratic Party ( LDP ) holds its September election.

All this, of course, is the cost of Japan’s over-riding policies this past decade. This has become especially important since the government gave the BOJ the green light to completely reform its balance sheet in 2013. The economy might not be recovering from the recovery room if Tokyo had carried out the bold reforms promised by the ruling LDP.

That’s not to say Japan has been devoid of structural change. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average reached its all-time high this year thanks to efforts to improve corporate governance. Additionally, unions and large corporations may be negotiating lucrative wage increases.

Japanese workers ‘&nbsp, base salaries increased 2.5 % in May year on year. The BOJ’s own data show many regions reported that” wage growth is broadening to surpass or is in line with last year’s elevated levels” for small and medium-sized businesses, too.

The longer-term consequences of these increases are an open question. Officials had hoped to start a virtuous cycle of increased wage gains that boost retail spending and corporate profits that result in ever-larger pay increases in the 13-plus years since the LDP’s return to power.

But that could prove inflationary. Consumer prices are already above the BOJ’s 2 % inflation target. The “bad” kind imported via a weak currency are the upward price pressures Japan is experiencing.

In recent years, the yen’s declines accelerated while oil and food prices rose all over the world. The sudden return of inflation, after 20 years of deflation, has undermined consumer confidence.

A sudden rise in Japanese yields could also slam shoddy on the stock market, thereby stifling both consumer and business confidence. Herein lies one of Ueda’s biggest fears: triggering the next Lehman Brothers-like shock.

Like his immediate predecessors, Ueda wants to avoid becoming one of the pantheon of BOJ leaders hailed for making policy mistakes that ruin markets.

The worst such blunder was in&nbsp, 1989 and 1990. As Japan’s” bubble economy “went haywire, the BOJ yanked away the proverbial punchbowl more aggressively than markets expected. As such, then-governor&nbsp, Yasushi Mieno’s 1989-1994 tenure is remembered as a cautionary tale for central bankers everywhere.

Lessons also abound from Toshihiko Fukui’s 2003-2008 governorship. Fukui even managed to put an end to QE for a while and twice raise official rates. However, the resulting recession caused a severe political backlash. By 2008, Fukui’s successor had been reinvigorated and cutting rates back to zero.

In the final year of his presidency, Kuroda opted against preparing for a QE exit. Ueda is now obligated to halt stimulus without causing a recession or panic in the world financial system.

The first quarter’s annual growth rate in Japan decreased by 2.9 %, complicating the situation. Another concern is the potential impact of destroying the yen-carry trade on the world.

Since the late 1990s and early 2000s, financiers of all stripes – hedge funds, especially – routinely borrowing cheaply in&nbsp, yen &nbsp, to bet on riskier assets boosted markets worldwide.

As such, sudden&nbsp, yen &nbsp, moves have a knack for shaking global markets, reverberating through stock, bond, commodity and real estate markets from New York to Sao Paulo to London to Mumbai to Seoul. Given that bourses in Shanghai and Shenzhen&nbsp, lost around$ 7 trillion of market value from a 2021 peak to January of this year, yen-driven chaos is the last thing Asia needs.

China might be able to impose itself on Japan by allowing for a weaker yuan. Image: Getty / Screengrab / Al Jazeera

However, many people worry that the yen’s upward trend may also be enabling Communist Party leaders to create a more advantageous exchange rate. It’s become” more of an option” for the People’s Bank of China ( PBOC ) &nbsp” ,as the economy struggles to find its footing, “notes economist Brendan McKenna at Wells Fargo Securities.

Twenty-five-plus years later, it’s now a chronically weak yen that might give Xi the ammunition he needs to pull the exchange-rate trigger. Within reason, of course.

Beijing should never be held accountable for stoking the next global crisis. So the PBOC made the recent moves to show its support for the status quo with a more stable daily reference rate.

However, the more likely it is that Beijing will follow suit by softening the yuan the longer Tokyo keeps a weak yen policy at a time when China’s economy is in danger. Expect Beijing’s daily currency fixing exercise to become a global investor’s obsession in the coming weeks.

All of this makes the BOJ’s policy meeting on July 30 and 31 the most anticipated in a long time. And one that, if Ueda dares, could upend global markets at a particularly delicate moment.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

New Japan-Philippine defense pact pushes back at China – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: July 9, 2024

In: Asia

Manila: To counteract China’s growing danger in the South China Sea, the Philippines is looking beyond the United States and toward Japan.

A high-stakes security agreement that will significantly improve diplomatic protection cooperation through joint military drills and gear transfers was eventually signed by Manila and Tokyo after years of negotiations.

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is promoting an “independent” foreign policy and is developing a large and well-diversified network of protection partnerships to counteract his nation’s dependence on US ally in the form of joint defense agreements.

Japan, which has recently established itself as a major regional and global surveillance person, is at the heart of the Philippines ‘ foreign policy growth strategy. Both parties have expressed concern about China’s assertive seafaring behavior, particularly along the so-called” First Island Chain” that runs from the East China Sea to the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.

The Philippines is now only the third country, after Australia and the United Kingdom, to mark an RAA cope with Japan. The new defence pact falls far short of a comprehensive common defense agreement.

Similar to the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement ( EDCA ), which Manila shares and has recently expanded to give US forces greater rotational access to its military installations, is there no such thing as a visiting forces agreement.

Rather, the new RAA specifies “procedures for joint activities that are carried out by troops of Japan and the Philippines while the power of one country is visiting the another country and establishes the legal standing of the visiting power”.

Additionally, the RAA will “improve interoperability between the causes of the two countries by facilitating the application of joint activities like joint exercises and hazard reduction between Japan and the Philippines.”

The two countries have stated that the new agreement is the result of a “increasingly extreme” security environment in the area and is a part of a wider combined effort to “promote security and defense cooperation between the two countries and strongly support peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region.”

It’s widely expected that the Philippine Senate and the Japanese Diet, both under the sway of current administrations, will ratify the RAA soon, paving the way for large-scale joint exercises and defense equipment transfers. Shared concern about a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan is a major driving force.

Near Taiwan’s shores, both the Philippines and Japan have military installations. Therefore, it is likely that the two parties ‘ future joint exercises will center on improving interoperability in the Taiwan Strait and Bashi Channel in order to respond to unexpected events.

Japan is also anticipated to increase its assistance to the Philippines in terms of maritime security in an effort to stop China’s actions on the water. In exchange, the Philippines will host more Japanese Self-Defense Forces for bilateral as well as multilateral drills involving like-minded nations like Australia, South Korea, Canada, and the US.

In the event that there is a significant Asian conflict to come up, the RAA could also serve as a springboard for a full-fledged alliance.

Perhaps Japan is the only country with such “bipartisan support” in the Philippines. Japan had the most favorable rating&nbsp, ( 81 % ) among the Philippines ‘ Asian partners in one recent poll, well ahead of other key partners such as South Korea ( 68 % ) and India ( 48 % ).

Japan has served as a leading&nbsp, export destination, development aid source and foreign investor, especially in public infrastructure, in the Philippines in recent decades.

All current Filipino presidents have pressed for greater strategic cooperation with Tokyo, from reformists like Fidel Ramos and Benigno Aquino to authoritarian populists like Rodrigo Duterte.

However, bilateral defense cooperation only began to gain momentum in the 2010s amid growing uncertainties over America’s commitment to the region and fears about China’s expanding military capabilities.

Tokyo and Manila have quickly increased their maritime security cooperation as Beijing has asserted its claims in both the South China Sea and the East China Sea. In particular, Shinzo Abe, the late prime minister, played a significant role in this regard by overseeing the transfer of coast guard ships and radar systems to the Philippines from the Aquino and Duterte administrations.

In exchange, the Philippines, especially under the Aquino administration, became the leading regional champion of a more proactive Japanese defense policy in the Indo-Pacific region.

Abe’s successors have doubled down on his legacy, with current prime minister Fumio Kishida calling for a new “golden age” of strategic cooperation just short of a full-fledged defense alliance in a historic speech before the joint congress of the Philippines last year.

Under Kishida, Japan has adopted a doctrine of “realism diplomacy”, vowing in the process to double Japan’s defense spending over five years. In addition to supporting like-minded countries like the Philippines in the area, Japan has recently launched a new Official Security Assistance ( OSA ) program.

Accordingly, the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG), which has already been a recipient of multiple Japanese-made patrol vessels in the past decade, is expected to acquire a new and modern multi-role ship.

The newly signed RAA is central to the fruition of Kishida ‘s&nbsp, “new vision of cooperation” &nbsp,. In their first” 2 2″ meeting in 2022, the Philippines and Japan flew to Tokyo to” strengthen defense cooperation in light of the increasingly harsh security environment” with then-Philippine Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin and then-Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana.

Despite Duterte’s generally warm ties with Beijing, his top diplomat and defense chief expressed&nbsp,” serious concern” over &nbsp, China’s increasingly assertive position in adjacent waters while broadly echoing the concern of Japan and major Western nations over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The two parties also discussed the transfer of new radar systems to the Philippine military in terms of a new defense pact.

Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who quickly strengthened defense ties with traditional partners following his unsuccessful visit to Beijing in January of last year, has strengthened Japan’s position as an “all-weather ally” to the Philippines.

More than nine out of ten Filipinos favor a tough and non-compromising stance in the disputed waters, which is anchored by Marcos ‘ defiance of China’s actions.

Crucially, the Filipino president has also pushed for closer trilateral security cooperation under the Japan-Philippine-US ( JAPHUS) framework. Foreign and defense ministers from both sides “understood the significance of each country’s respective treaty alliance with the United States and that of strengthening cooperation with regional partner countries” during their 2 2 meeting last year.

The RAA’s announcement comes as tensions in the South China Sea are rising, most recently as a result of Beijing’s deployment of one of its two “monster” coast guard ships in the disputed waters.

According to the most recent reports, China Coast Guard (CCG) ship 5901, which is a humongous ship three times bigger than the US Coast Guard’s National Security Cutters and five times bigger than the Philippines ‘ flagship vessel BRP Teresa Magbanua, is currently anchored at the Sabina Shoal in the disputed &nbsp, Spratly Islands, parts of which are located within the Philippines ‘ 200 nautical miles exclusive economic zone ( EEZ ).

Philippine Coast Guard spokesperson Jay Tarriela&nbsp, characterized the deployment as an “intimidation” tactic and insisted that” ]w ] e’re not going to pull out and we’re not going to be intimidated]by China ]”.

General Romeo Brawner, head of the Armed Forces of the Philippines ( AFP), asserts that the Philippines has rejected US requests for direct assistance for resupply and patrol missions in the disputed waters despite ongoing harassment and intimidation from China’s maritime forces. Knowing that it now has more tacit Japanese support, it is able to afford to do so.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Richeydarian

Jatuporn calls for protest next month

By: Barkar Nash

On: July 8, 2024

In: South-East Asia

PUBLISHED: 9 Jul 2024 at 05: 07

Former red-shirt leader Jatuporn Prompan is organizing a protest next month to protest a number of government initiatives, including a 75 % cap on foreign ownership of apartments and 99-year property rentals for immigrants, which he claimed would only benefit the country’s wealthy.

In a Facebook post on Monday, Mr Jatuporn urged the people to stop becoming “political subjects” and protest against Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin’s activities.

He claimed that the government was keeping a key agenda that would help particular organizations when they sought to raise money for the upcoming election.

” The prime minister was a real estate creator”, said Mr Jatuporn in the Facebook post.

Thailand will reduce its democracy if his plans are put into practice without any opposition because condominiums there could be wholly owned by foreigners– 75 % through legal ownership and 25 % through nominees, according to Mr. Jatuporn.

He added that by extending the utmost property lease term from 30 to 99 times, foreigners would be able to “establish provinces” in Thailand.

He claims that the international apartment possession scheme is for 4 trillion baht.

Mr. Jatuporn also made reference to other government projects that require colossal amounts of funding, including the electronic pocket scheme, the southern Land Bridge venture, and a blackjack complex development.

He praised the digital wallet scheme, which would give eligible citizens a one-time 10,000-baht cash bonus, and claimed the budget request’s budget request’s budget request and real spending could reach as much as 400 billion baht.

Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan, the head of the Thai Sang Thai Party, even criticized the proposed changes to the property rent and property rights limit, saying the government should concentrate on assisting Thai citizens.

” People are losing their houses”, she said. The state must tackle this urgent issue right away.

LGBTQ+ awaits “groundbreaking” law

By: Barkar Nash

On: July 7, 2024

In: South-East Asia

Thailand is set to be Asia’s following gay marriage hub after more than 20 years of supporting a relationship justice expenses.

In a place where most countries continue to oppose gay right, the country could be a haven for LGBTQ couples once the bill is passed.

The costs will go into influence 120 days after being published in the Royal Gazette, evoking a new time for Thailand and its LGBTQ area. It is currently awaiting the King’s last formality of imperial support.

Nada Chaiyajit, a professor at Mae Fah Luang University’s School of Law and lengthy- time trans rights activist, was a crucial adviser in drafting, compiling and submitting the bill to parliament.

She claimed that Srettha Thavisin, the prime minister, gave the bill prior consideration, which allowed it to be passed in just three months, which Ms. Chaiyajit described as miracle-working.

Communities are calling for a bill to promote marriage equality, according to Ms. Chaiyajit. ” Love wins”.

She noted that Thailand already had a large number of ceremonial same-sex marriages before this bill was passed, and she anticipates that this number will increase even further.

In Thailand, same-sex couples will have the same rights as heterosexual couples as a result of the bill.

Foreign same-sex couples seeking recognition of their relationship status in Thailand require only secure citizenship documents from their respective embassies.

To finish the marriage registration process, these documents must be submitted to Thai authorities.

Same-sex unions will be permitted in Thailand, but foreign couples may not have legal standing in their home countries due to local laws.

However, this groundbreaking legislation places Thailand among the nations with the highest standards for LGBTQ rights, and it is anticipated to boost tourism and the local economy.

Another key aspect of the bill is the shift in the use of the term” spouse” instead of “wife” or “husband” in a marriage, a move aimed at eliminating binary gender distinctions.

Same- sex couples will soon be able to adopt children, co- sign leases and more. However, a major of point of contention with the bill is whether they will be permitted to use surrogates, a restricted practice in Thailand.

Asst Prof Wimpat Rajpradit, from Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Law, explained that while the term” spouse” under the marriage equality bill will allow same- sex couples to adopt, they will not be able to use surrogates.

This is because current surrogacy law, enacted in 2015, still uses binary terms such as “wife” and “husband”, he said.

He predicted that unless the law is changed, same-sex couples will not be able to use surrogates.

According to Ms. Chaiyajit, the next significant change is one that relates to legal gender recognition. Under this bill, individuals are allowed to legally identify with different genders, she said. After three revisions, the bill will be submitted by the end of the month, she said.

Tiny slice of equality

Ryan Joseph Figueriedo, Founder of the Equal Asia Foundation, which promotes LGBTQ inclusion, expressed cautious optimism about the bill and looked forward to celebrating its passing with Thais.

” We are still in the early stages of seeing how legal equality develops,” said Mr. Figueriedo.

He claimed that Thailand continues to be a conservative Buddhist society with strong karmic beliefs.

This fosters widespread tolerance but does not always translate into full acceptance, he explained.

Locals have been sceptical about Bangkok’s plans to host World Pride 2030, with some questioning whether the bill’s real purpose is economic gain rather than real social change.

In this context, Mr Figuerido warned against “pink- washing” or “rainbow washing”, a tactic that shifts focus away from pressing economic issues by spotlighting LGBTQ initiatives.

” This is a limited set of rights for an elite few”, he said.

Although this legislation is groundbreaking, Thailand’s family structure remains deeply patriarchal.

Mr. Figuerido hopes the bill will change the public’s perception, entice people to leave their shadows, and give people access to resources previously unheard.

The legal marriage equality bill “fills a small piece of the big piece of equality,” according to Mr. Figuerido.

Other side of the rainbow

Thailand’s legislative progress contrasts starkly with that of neighboring nations as it prepares to become the 37th nation to legalize same-sex unions.

While the kingdom moves forward with new rights for LGBTQ individuals, regional counterparts continue to enforce strict prohibitions and limited protections.

Myanmar, west of Thailand, prohibits same- sex marriage, criminalising acts of” carnal knowledge against the order of nature” with penalties, including life imprisonment.

Laos, northeast of Thailand, decriminalised same- sex relations but does not allow marriage, adoption or civil unions.

Cambodia, southeast of Thailand, lacks anti- LGBTQ discrimination and marriage equality laws over concerns about adoption and HIV. Advocacy for increased rights continues.

Malaysia, south of Thailand, prohibits gay marriage with penalties of up to 20 years in prison and whipping.

While not targeting transgender people specifically, they face frequent arrests, violence and discrimination, including alleged police abuse.

In June, South Korea’s Supreme Court reviewed whether same- sex partners can be registered as “dependent spouses”, but Korean law does not require redefining” spouse”.

Human Rights Watch has urged extending benefits to same- sex partners, citing discrimination. Same- sex relations are not criminalised, but marriage remains unrecognised.

Japan ruled in March that banning same- sex marriage is unconstitutional, though no new framework has been established. Polls show 70 % support for same- sex unions.

Vietnam has made some progress for the LGBTQ community. The nation permits legal gender transitions and ceremonial same-sex weddings, but it does not recognize same-sex marriage as legal status.

On June 1 in Bangkok’s capital, Thailand held a Pride parade outside CentralWorld shopping center. The event also celebrated the country’s recent decision to legalise same- sex marriage. Nutthawat Wichieanbut

US air moves in Japan more head fake than power punch – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: July 4, 2024

In: Asia

In response to rising tensions with China over Taiwan, the US has unveiled a US$ 10 billion plan to improve defense aircraft in Japan. But, aging aircraft, production problems and China’s quick- growing air force does suggest the plan is too little, too soon to drastically shift the region’s balance of air power.

The US has unveiled a complete modernization strategy for military plane stationed in Japan, according to Breaking Defense, the most recent step to strengthen the US-Japan security empire, according to Breaking Defense.

Breaking Defense says the plan, second announced in November 2023, involves replacing older F- 15s and F- 16s with superior F- 15EX and F- 35 planes and changing US Marine Corps ( USMC) F- 35B operations. The report notes that this tactical change increases punishment and fosters peace and stability in a place where tensions persist over Taiwan’s potential.

The essential to the development travel is Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, dubbed the” Foundation of the Pacific”, which will see its 48 F- 15s substituted by 36 F- 15EXs. The facility’s close vicinity to Taiwan highlights its strategic importance for both Japan’s national protection and US military interests.

According to the Breaking Defense statement, the change process will involve continued third- and fifth-generation fighter rotations, a temporary determine that was previously criticized by US Republican lawmakers.

Also, the Misawa Air Base in northern Honshu may have an update from 36 F- 16s to 48 F- 35As. The USMC Air Station Iwakuni in southern Honshu, however, will change its F- 35B secrecy warrior presence to coincide with the USMC’s force design modernization.

Although the US maintains a considerable warrior push there, its efforts to maintain a reliable power posture in China may be undermined by aging fighter aircraft, improve delays, and production issues.

In an April 2023 article for Air &amp, Space Forces Magazine, Chris Gordon notes that US F- 15 Eagles based at Kadena have retired after 40 years of service, raising questions about the US Air Force’s ( USAF ) capacity to match China’s growing, modern air fleet in the Pacific.

John Tirpak notes for Air &amp, Space Forces Magazine that, on average, US fighter planes are 29 years old. Some fighters, such as the F- 15C and F- 15E, are 37 and 30 years old, much exceeding their anticipated support lives of 12- 15 years.

During Exercise Resilient Typhoon 2019, a US F-15C fighter takes off from Tinian International Airport. Photo: Scramble Magazine

With its heavy payload and upgraded sensors making it a “missile truck” to launch beyond- visual- range ( BVR ) missiles, the F- 15EX does not have stealth features that would allow it to penetrate and survive in heavily defended airspace. However, it represents a significant improvement over the older F- 15 models.

Due to this defect, the F-15EX becomes more of a stopgap model until more advanced F-22s can be deployed to Japan or until the US Next Generation Air Dominance ( NGAD ) fighter becomes operational.

Top-of-the-line F-22s were sent by the US to Kadena Air Force Base in April 2024, but it is unlikely there will be enough to compete with China’s expanding fleet of fifth-generation fighters, such as the J-20. The US stopped F- 22 production with only 187 airframes built, fewer than China’s 200 or so J- 20 stealth fighters.

Maya Carlin notes in a June 2024 article for The National Interest ( TNI ) that China produced 100 J- 20 stealth fighters last year, on top of 40- 50 units built in 2022. At that rate, Carlin says China may have 1, 000 J- 20s by 2035.

In contrast, Unshin Lee Harpley notes in a March 2024 Air &amp, Space Forces Magazine article that while the US can build 135 F- 35 airframes a year, 60- 70 of those planes go to US allies. Although the F- 22 is a 30- year- old plane with a 1980s stealth design and 1990s computer architecture, constant upgrades may make it a capable combat platform in the 2020s and beyond.

As a crucial component of its strategy to advance military equipment and address potential technological challenges, the USAF is focused on developing more sophisticated and battle-ready F-22 models, according to Asia Times ‘ report from May 2024.

Over the next ten years, the F- 22 fleet will receive a$ 22 billion upgrade, which could extend its service life into the 2040s. The upgrade will enhance the avionics, stealth and survivability of 142 F- 22 aircraft.

According to analysts, upgrading the F-22s will require a lot of time and resources that could be better used to research and develop a new fighter. Additionally, there are concerns the F- 22 may become obsolete for its designated purpose by the time the upgrades are finished.

As for the F- 35, the 2023 Annual Report by the Director, Operational Test &amp, Evaluation ( DOT&amp, E) released in January 2024 shows that the 628- strong US F- 35 fighter fleet has been grappling with reliability, maintainability and availability ( RMA ) issues.

The DOT&amp, E report shows that despite efforts to improve performance, the fleet was operational only 51 % of the time in fiscal year 2023, falling well short of a 65 % target. Additionally, it reveals a decline in aircraft availability since January 2021, with combat-coded aircraft prioritized for maintenance and spare parts reaching a monthly average availability of 61 %, which is also below target.

The DOT&amp, E report also shows that F- 35 full mission capability rates were below expectations, with combat- coded aircraft averaging 48 % and the overall fleet just 30 %. It says critical failures, including software stability and hardware issues, are the main contributors to the fleet’s underperformance.

The report also mentions that Block 4 mission systems software, which are underdeveloped and inadequate, are contributing to the aircraft’s progress. According to the report, there are also security concerns with the avionics for the new Technology Refresh 3 ( TR-3 ) hardware, which are being incorporated into the production Lot 15 aircraft.

China may be on track to surpass the US airpower not just in the Pacific but also globally as the US struggles to modernize its fighter force.

In a March 2024 US Senate Committee on Armed Services hearing, Admiral John Aquilino, commander of US Indo- Pacific Command ( USINDOPACOM), said that China, now with the world’s largest military and navy, will soon also have the world’s largest air force.

In line with that statement, the US Department of Defense’s ( DOD ) 2023 China Military Power Report notes that the People’s Liberation Army- Air Force ( PLA- AF ) and PLA- Navy Aviation ( PLA- N Aviation ) combined is the largest aviation force in the Indo- Pacific and the third- largest in the world with some 3, 150 aircraft, not including trainers and unmanned systems.

Around 2, 400 of those are combat aircraft such as fighters, strategic bombers, tactical bombers, multi- mission tactical and attack aircraft, the report said.

Which will mess up the most – Fed, BOJ or PBOC? – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: July 3, 2024

In: Asia

Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve, may be spared a thought if anyone is currently despising their work. Owners can see how unsure Chairman Powell is regarding the US interest rate trend in real time.

The former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers ‘ claim that the Fed’s subsequent step will be to strengthen, not simplicity, has sparked a wave of ire among investors. The Fed’s issue is not humored by the dollar’s soaring inflation rate, the dollar’s soars, and US electioneering becoming a laughingstock.

Summers is still a dreamer, according to numerous well-known academics. Among them is Mark Zandi, chief analyst at Moody’s Analytics.

” The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates – now”, Zandi argues. ” The main bank’s present higher- for- longer interest rate plan – firmly holding the&nbsp, <a href="https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS&data=05|02||e36ed482867343af9d8d08dc9b7d5bbc|84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa|1|0|638556209932965310|Unknown|TWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0=|0|||&sdata=rjCCqmnH9a6hcIVdmcYS4IKKF67S/NZSqlJE2cDhhmI=&reserved=0″ target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener”>federal funds rate that ‘s&nbsp, immediately controlled by the Fed at a higher 5.5 % – threatens to destroy the busines s“.

Bill Dudley, former chairman of the Fed Bank of New York, thinks that would be a miscalculation. ” Maybe the Fed’s slogan, instead of ‘ higher for longer,’ if be’ higher continuously’ until inflation moves more persuasively in the desired direction”, Dudley wrote on Bloomberg.

Not just one central bank is in danger of making a major policy mistake, according to the Fed. In addition, the People’s Bank of China and the Bank of Japan may need some major explanations in the coming year for mistakes made today.

For instance, the BOJ has almost surely run out of time to stop quantitative easing and stabilize interest rates. Since taking over the board in April 2023, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has seized every chance to change its mind to a less flexible coverage.

Then, as Japan’s economy deals – by 2.9 % in the first quarter year on year – and inflation surpasses wage growth, it’s an open question whether any climb costs will come in 2024.

As the BOJ flounders, the yen is extending its decline – over 15 % so far this year – in ways that could destroy world businesses. Another important Asian nations may experience declines in exchange rates as a result. And it might make Asia nervous to watch out for before the November US vote.

The BOJ was possibly mess up in both directions. Applying the brakes too quickly may exacerbate the yen’s surge and slam the economy into recession. Act very gently, and Japan will soon become even more entangled in the QE sand, making exiting it even more difficult.

The PBOC must perform a challenging juggling work of its own. Governor Pan Gongsheng has been slower to lower saving costs as Asia’s largest economy slows. Some economists worry that this precaution conflicts with worries about the slowing of economic development.

In June, for example, coast service action grew at the slowest rate in eight weeks. A weaker-than-expected 51.2, compared to 554 in May, was the Caixin China service purchasing managers ‘ indicator.

These data raise concerns that strong export growth is n’t translating into stronger domestic demand. Despite authorities efforts to stabilize the condition, China’s home crisis continues to ponder on growth.

Wang Zhe, an economist at Caixin Insight Group, claims that” the progress speed weakened compared to May.” The business was under tension, the “market was concerned.”

President Xi Jinping’s desire to avoid punishing poor banking decisions or reinflating asset bubbles is one factor making Pan reluctant to lower prices. Xi’s Communist Party really allowed for burst of stimulus. However, the PBOC has been far less confrontational than during earlier slowdowns.

What’s different this time is recession. As China ‘s&nbsp, home crisis&nbsp, deepens and its overcapacity woes enhance, some economists worry authorities risk letting this poor- price active take on a life of its own. Xi’s party loathes the Japan comparisons so often leveled Beijing’s way.

People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng faces a deflation dilemma. Image: Twitter Screengrab

Of course, fears about Chinese overcapacity could be overdone. Many economists argue that unfair trade practices and increased production results are the cause of the country’s export success right now.

However, the US Fed may be the one who is most likely to make a significant policy mistake.

In its extreme focus on inflation, the Powell- led Fed risks ignoring dislocations in credit markets. Not of the 2008 Lehman Brothers crisis variety but of a magnitude the Fed’s “higher for longer” yield policy may exacerbate.

Granted, economic conditions have n’t gone to plan as employment growth and wages outpace even the most optimistic forecasts. In May, consumer prices grew at a 2.6 % annual rate. Though coming down toward the Fed’s 2 % target, policymakers are n’t ready to declare victory.

We simply want to make sure that the levels we’re seeing reflect actual inflation, Powell said on Tuesday ( July 2 ).

Last week, Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed, cautioned it’s “hard to know if we are truly on track to sustainable price stability”.

The issue is that the Fed may be supporting the wrong side of the trade-off it faces. Many of the upward pressures on costs are coming from the supply side, post- Covid- 19 pandemic. Government actions to boost domestic productivity and capacity, rather than tighter credit, are more effective at addressing these trends.

The US dollar is rising in ways that are making Asia’s year more difficult and putting strains on the US commercial property sector as the Fed decides a course of action. In the wake of Covid, and the work- from- home boom it unleashed, empty skyscrapers seem sure to be America’s next financial reckoning.

Medium- size banks, meanwhile, are still reeling from the Fed’s failure to cut rates. Back in January, Powell’s team was seen easing between five and seven times in 2024. Now, some fear the higher- yield era is poised to be as indefinite as Japan’s zero- rate period.

The risk posed by high yields is illustrated by the speed with which the Silicon Valley Bank collapse in the early 2023 global markets erupted. That goes, too, for undermining the economy.

Many are taking a wait- and- see approach. &nbsp,” When you have economic growth at a pace under 2 %, that can be considered’ stall speed,'” says strategist Rob Haworth at US Bank Wealth Management. ” But we’re still seeing solid&nbsp, consumer activity, which has been the most important factor driving the economy to this point”.

But Mohamed El- Erian, president of Queens ‘ College, Cambridge, argues the US is” slowing faster than most economists expect and faster than what the Fed expected”. This “excessively data- dependent” Fed team risks keeping borrowing costs” too high for too long”.

The dollar’s “wrecking ball” tendencies, meanwhile, are shaking up global markets. It’s hoovering up outsized waves of global capital, disadvantaging emerging economies in particular. Political polarization in Washington, meanwhile, does n’t augur well for capping the dollar’s rally.

” In a divided government, there’s less ability to pass a lot of meaningful fiscal measures”, notes strategist Kamakshya Trivedi at Goldman Sachs. ” It’s fair to say that trade policies and fiscal expansion policies will be up for debate and possibly put into action for this particular election. In addition, the rest of the world faces a real risk of managing an even stronger dollar as a result.

The outlook was further muddied by US President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance against Donald Trump. Trump’s chances of winning the White House appear to be higher than ever.

Analysts at ING Bank write in a note that “it is now obvious that investors have made the Trump-strong dollar link.” Given Trump’s potential for lower taxes, inflationary protectionist measures, and greater geopolitical risks,” this is also how we interpret it,” we thought.

Donald Trump is being linked to an even stronger, not weaker, dollar. Image: X Screengrab

Periods of extreme dollar strength do n’t tend to go well for Asia’s export- reliant economies. Powerful dollar rallies of the kind that have taken place across the globe over the past few years have tended to squander disproportionate amounts of capital, denying Asia of desperately needed investment.

The Fed’s “taper tantrum” of 2013 is one earlier reminder of this phenomenon. The Fed tightened its last two years with an even greater degree of force than it has in the last two years, which is the real bookend for Asia.

At the time, the Fed doubled short- term interest rates in just 12 months. The tightening set in motion Mexico’s peso crisis, the bankruptcy of&nbsp, Orange&nbsp, County, California and the demise of Wall Street securities giant&nbsp, Kidder, &nbsp, Peabody&nbsp, &amp, &nbsp, Co.

Then developed Asia, which was the biggest casualty of all, arrived. By 1997, a multi- year dollar rally&nbsp, and rising US yields made Asian currency pegs to the dollar impossible to maintain.

First came Thailand’s chaos- generating devaluation in July 1997. Next, Indonesia and South Korea scrapped dollar pegs. Malaysia and the Philippines were also on the brink as a result of the turbulence. Before long, global investors began worrying Japan and China might stumble, too.

The fear was that&nbsp, China might devalue, catalyzing a fresh wave of market turbulence. Luckily, Beijing did n’t – just as it has n’t today.

Japan contributed to the drama back then when, in November 1997, Yamaichi Securities collapsed. The failure of a then- 100- year- old Japan Inc icon shook global markets. Thankfully, officials in Tokyo kept the collapse from becoming a systemic shock globally.

Now, Asia faces a giant shock from the other direction. Despite the rally, global investors are no longer confident in the dollar because it poses a greater, immediate systemic risk.

Just as the US national debt reaches the$ 35 trillion mark, the de-dollarization movement is gaining traction. What’s more, Washington’s debt burden is headed to$ 50 trillion by 2034, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Midway through November, Moody’s Investors Service threatened to downgrade the US, shaking the dollar’s stability. That would mean the loss of Washington’s last AAA rating, which would likely send US 10- year yields skyrocketing.

Is the Fed making an epic&nbsp, mistake? Only time will tell. But it’s just one of several top central banks whose&nbsp, mistakes&nbsp, could shake the global financial system in ways few appear to see coming.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

Moves (Page 20)

LABOUR IS BIG BUSINESS

Challenging the West