Japan’s exports rebound, the Middle East market topping the list – Asia Times

Japan’s new trade achievement offers a glimmer of hope amid broader financial difficulties. In October 2024, Japan’s exports rose by 3.1 % compared with the same month a year earlier, marking a significant rebound after the sharp 1.7 % fall in September that had set a 43-month low. &nbsp,

This sudden increase exceeded economics ‘ anticipation of a 2.2 % fall, suggesting that Japan’s export-driven market is on a healing journey. &nbsp,

Despite these encouraging developments, the nation still faces a number of difficulties and dangers that may affect its 2025 monetary path. &nbsp,

For international investors, Japan offers a convincing argument for growth in some sectors as well as a nuanced set of risks, particularly in light of domestic demographic trends, domestic economic trends, and fiscal policy.

While Japan’s trade figures have improved, the broader business harmony presents a more concerning image. &nbsp,

The country’s imports also saw a modest rise of 0.4 %, defying expectations of a 0.3 % decline, pushing Japan’s trade deficit to 461.2 billion yen ($ 2.98 billion ) in October. This marks an rise from the previous month’s updated gap of 294.1 billion renminbi, and a wider difference than the 360.4 billion japanese forecasted by economists. &nbsp,

The trade deficit highlights the country’s ongoing fundamental challenges, as the nation heavily relies on exporting finished products while importing raw materials and energy, despite the increase in imports.

Japan’s strong performance in the Middle East, where exports increased by 35.4 % in October 2023, was a key positive factor in the export data. &nbsp,

Although Japan’s exports are also largely dependent on markets in Asia and North America, this suggests a possible growth of its trading partners. &nbsp,

However, Japan’s ability to respond to global demand and its ability to deal with international trade risks, especially US policies, will depend largely on the global economy’s ability to weather growing uncertainties.

Trade dangers: US procedures under Trump

The potential impact of US policies under President-elect Donald Trump is one of the biggest physical risks. If the new leadership imposes more tariffs or launches a wider trade war with China, the country’s profoundly integrated and highly reliant on imports could experience significant problems.

Japan’s business relationship with the US is crucial, particularly in sectors such as automobiles, electronics, and machine, where Japan holds a competitive edge. &nbsp,

But, Japan could experience slower export growth and higher natural materials costs if Washington adopts more interventionist policies or if US-China tensions escalate further. &nbsp,

Any additional deterioration in relations between the country’s two largest economies, particularly given Japan’s dependence on China as a major trading partner, was considerably deteriorate Japan’s supply chains and lower the need for its goods in both areas.

For international investors this, of course, creates an ambiguous setting. &nbsp,

Socioeconomic and labour market problems

Japan’s internal problems possible reduce its ability to grow economically. Japan’s aging populace and declining beginning price have been well-documented, and by 2025, these changes are expected to increase more. &nbsp,

The country’s labor is shrinking, leading to concerns over labour shortages and a rising dominance amount. As the population ages, the need for healthcare and pension solutions will increase, placing more pressure on Japan’s fiscal plans.

The Chinese government has taken some steps to help address these issues, including easing immigration regulations to encourage older staff and women to work. &nbsp,

But, to time, these methods have had limited success in reversing the demographic collapse. For owners, this means that Japan’s ability for robust private consumption and labor-driven progress is constrained. Alternatively, investors are going to look to businesses that can alleviate labor shortages, such as robotics, technology and AI, which Japan has been at the forefront of developing.

In addition to socioeconomic forces, Japan’s usage habits have been influenced by an aging population, with a growing desire for products and services tailored to older people. Sectors such as healthcare, biotech, and elder care technologies are likely to see growth, while traditional consumer goods may face stagnation as Japan’s population decreases and ages.

The BoJ’s role

In 2025, the Bank of Japan ( BoJ) will continue to play a significant role in the country’s economic landscape. &nbsp,

In an effort to encourage inflation and boost economic growth, the central bank has been using ultra-loose monetary policies for years, including massive asset purchases and negative interest rates. With Japan still struggling with low inflation and slow growth, these measures have not produced the desired outcomes.

The BoJ’s accommodative stance will likely stay in place in 2025, with low interest rates and ongoing asset purchases. &nbsp,

Japan’s financial markets could experience volatility, especially in the bond market, despite the fact that this supports short-term economic activity.

For global investors, the BoJ’s policies will have a significant impact on the yen. A weak yen generally benefits Japan’s exporters, making their products more competitive abroad.

As global investors look to 2025, Japan presents both considerable risks and significant opportunities. &nbsp,

The key will be to keep an eye on the BoJ’s monetary policy actions, including those relating to global trade policies, domestic labor market reforms, and other developments.

deVere Group was founded by Nigel Green, its CEO.

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South Korea is no patriarchy, despite 4B charges of misogyny – Asia Times

In 2019, Naksungdae scholar and former Seoul National University doctor Rhee Young-hoon published Anti-Japan Tribalism. The book’s argument is that South Korea should examine its colonial past more nuancedly under Chinese rule. Hatred for Japan, Professor Rhee and his co-authors argue, is not a ideal foundation on which to build the modern, democratic state of South Korea.

We regret noting a phenomenon like this in recent studies about the existence of cruel South Koreans. We are uneasy about the accusations made by some North Korean women that South Korea is a “patriarchy,” because they appear to reflect a novel form of politics, which blinds both inside and outside the Korean coast to the difficulty of South Korea.

One of us, Morgan, spent a month in Gyeongsangbuk-do, in southeast South Korea, some twenty years ago. While that, he met some strong, smart, independent people. He had opened discussions with them about their opinions on any number of items, from politics and religion to history, culture, and social problems. He never understood that those people were the subjects of any sexism. To the contrary, many of the people Morgan met in Gyeongsangbuk-do and throughout South Korea were welcoming, helpful, and style. Many of them were interested in serving women’s requirements. Some were a little quiet. No one in his memory has ever had bad opinions of people as individuals. South Korea as a “patriarchy” does not match with any of Morgan’s activities in or with that state.

The other of us, Yoshida, has lived and worked in South Korea for over a century, spending the past four decades as a blogger covering the government’s social relationships, among other subjects. He has firsthand knowledge of the raging gender divide that he witnessed during the Moon Jae-in administration ( 2017-20 ) and how tensions have evolved as a result. Although anti-feminist activities have gained popularity among young Vietnamese men and gender-motivated crimes against women, these styles do not apply to all men. Also, he believes that people with radical ideologies—whether rooted in sexism or misandry—exist within both genders but make up just a small fraction of the entire North Korean people. In summary, neither of us agree with the statements made in aggressive hit articles about South Korea.

The proof given above is subjective, but much more reliable empirical data and much bigger trends verify our knowing. For instance, South Korea has gained notoriety for child bands due to their graceful dance moves and love of makeup and hairstyles, among other things. Additionally, South Korea is currently experiencing a boom in professional sports, or “women’s professional sports.” Moreover, South Korea’s demographics, in certain its low fertility, would seem to indicate that ladies control decisions about friendship with men. The “incel” sensation, although also, however, often associated with South Korean community, also hints clearly at sexual autonomy. The fact that North Korean women appear free to make such decisions does not support South Korea’s existence as a sexism in which people are ruled, even if it is claimed that North Korean women usually find them impractical as intimate partners. If anything, the “pro-natalist” laws which some in South Korea condemn as evidence of sexism are tacit admittance of feminine freedom. ( It is also jarring that those who criticize such policies seem to forget that men also of course fall under such policies ‘ purview, reproductive-biologically speaking. )

There is another, albeit indirect, discussion against the cost of sexism. Specifically, the universal military service condition in South Korea, which, far from being really common, applies only to able-bodied people. An army of mainly young males, mostly from a angry, nuclear-armed state with a propensity for foolish ICBM launches and global terrorism, stands along the border with the accusations of sexism. We make no suggestion at all that women may be forced to join the military alongside people. But in saying this, we do not think that we perpetuate a sexism. In addition, we think that the men who guard the South Korean border actually do their duty because they are n’t trying to subjugate South Korean women. To put it simply, if South Korea is a sexism, one would never know it if the lives of female soldiers and sailors were comparatively unharmed.

South Korea may never have always had the same level of progress as it does now. Before the Republic of Korea was established, the yangban class of aristcratic literati kept other women as virtual sex slaves, including kisaeng ( courtesans akin to Japanese geisha ). American service members were given comfort women by the Korean authorities, which was a state-run trafficking practice during the Korean War, which suffered horribly for the ladies. Even now, some people are still living in the vicinity of British military installations.

However, Park Geun-hye, Park Chung-hee’s daughter, is still the only adult leader in East Asia to have been elected president. It is correct that President Park Geun-hye was removed from office by female lawyers. She was not, however, the first North Korean leader to face legal repression after taking business. In facing a severe post-presidential death, Park joined a portfolio of different fell rulers, all of them males. And the latest president, Yoon Seok-yeol, is beset with difficulties caused by none other than the First Lady, his wife. Apart from the typical cutthroat politics that may befall every would-be ruler, whether male or female, South Korea seems to be filled with optimistic people who face much resistance or discrimination in the exercise of power.

We hope that the portrait of South Korea that the expanding 4B global movement may paint is much more complex in the details provided above. We believe that South Korea, which has worked hard to join the rates of contemporary governments, is disregarded and unfairly treated when compared to this extraordinary and compressing philosophy. We also believe that it violates cultural richness in an excessive way because it will never be true that all X are Y in any society. Human life is noisy, human knowledge is varied, and each individual lives his or her career as an entity, not as a copy in a flock. Instead of indicting whole nations for the actions of a terrible few, we should treat people as like.

Or more than a few. Well, in recent North Korean actions have been outrageously disrespectful to women’s dignity. We aspire that the government may learn who the crimes against women are committed and to put all possible punishment on those who violate the law. We also hope that commentators wo n’t make South Korea’s reputation look bad by insisting that such reprobates represent the entire country. They are n’t. Additionally, all South Asian women are represented by those who accuse all South Korean people of sexism.

North Korean culture is complicated. It and its citizens deserve to be treated with dignity and not to be subjected to widespread condemnation. Politics, whether democratic or sex, does not do justice to a position as rich and vibrant as modern-day South Korea.

Jason Morgan, a researcher and writer based in Chiba, Japan, is co-author of The Comfort Women Hoax: A Fake Memoir, North Korean Scouts, and Strike Teams in the Academic Swamp.

For JAPAN Forward, Kenji Yoshida is an interact journalist in Seoul and a speaker.

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All Singapore mainstream schools to have programmes for students to experience disability sports

” FOCAL POINTS” ISLANDWIDE

Separately, SportSG even did set up&nbsp, Para Sports Community Hubs to&nbsp, grow the foundation of aspiring par players.

By the end of this year, the island does have piloted five of these centers, with additional ones set up by 2030.

These hubs will be at&nbsp, Pasir Ris Sport Centre ( boccia ), &nbsp, Heartbeat@Bedok ( swimming and table tennis ), Jurong West Sport Centre ( swimming and para cycling ), Yio Chu Kang Sport Centre (athletics and badminton ) and Delta Sport Centre ( goalball ).

Boccia, which means to plate in Roman, is a specific game sport played by players in chairs. Since golf was developed specifically for those who are blind or have small vision, it almost exclusively relies on audio.

These “focal factors” will be used as “focal points,” according to MCCY, to draw in sports fans and visitors to the disabled sports scene.

By the end of 2030, all ActiveSG sports centers may have a captain quiet room, with a pilot quiet space in each zone until 2025.

Available sports facilities enable people with disabilities to participate in and participate in activities there, according to MCCY.

” SportSG may continue to improve accessibility for people with various disabilities to the amenities and facilities at ActiveSG.”

There are also plans to increase the number of instructors who are registered as instructors for people with disabilities from currently around 120 to 300 by 2030.

Additionally, MCCY mentioned Team Singapore’s upcoming Kallang location as the location of a federal para-sports education facility.

The National Training Center for Para Sport, as well as dedicated training facilities to accommodate the needs of particular para sports, will be located in the “HTSG ( Home of Team Singapore ).” The government added that this ability will help foster a more vibrant TeamSG soul and promote the development of disabled sports in Singapore.

The strategic decisions show Singapore’s devotion to inclusive gymnastics, according to Dr. Teo-Koh Sock Miang, chairman of the SDSC, Singapore National Paralympic Council, and Special Olympics Singapore,” and represent a major step in expanding opportunities for people with disabilities to teach, sing, and thrive up in sports,” he added.

We think that sport can help us create a more welcoming society that fosters empathy and enhances people’s well-being. We will work together to create a sports ecosystem in which everyone’s abilities can thrive and participate.

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From local ice cream parlour to global food behemoth: What’s next after Jollibee’s acquisition of Tim Ho Wan?

Mr Jose Antonio Cipres, a research scientist at the AP Securities trading, said Jollibee’s most remarkable acquisitions were of Chinese-Filipino fast-food network Chowking and cooking restaurant team Mang Inasal.

Chowking had 162 trees when it was acquired in 2000, and that amount has now grown to 566, he said. And Mang Inasal has 573 businesses, away from 303 when Jollibee took over in 2010.

” Since its founding, Jollibee’s quest is testament to successful brand, resilience and a strong understanding of consumer choices”, said Mr Jonathan Ravelas, managing director of eMBM, which provides expert service.

He continued,” It is remarkable that Jollibee has grown from a small local business to a global player in the foods business.”

CONCERNS OVER Value

However Jollibee’s method of acquiring companies has never come without censure. &nbsp,

According to Banderlipe, Banderlipe of De La Salle University, several customers believe that Jollibee’s companies may experience a decline in their food and service standards with a focus on generating higher profits.

” When the bread firm Red Ribbon was acquired, some loyal users complained about losing the’ liqueur-ish’ taste of the Black Forest pie that made Red Ribbon famous”, he said.

A tie-up with a major mall operator in the Philippines will allow the coffee beans and tea leaves to appear in 89 malls as shops, which Mr. Banderlipe described as a drop for devoted customers.

On CNA’s Instagram post about Jollibee’s merger of Tim Ho Wan, one person posted:” Good luck with the high-quality”!

Another responded:” Agree. Costs fluctuate, while food and service quality fluctuates.

According to Mr. Banderlipe,” Jollibee must concern itself to increase or maintain the quality of the products and service of the models it purchases.”

As Jollibee expands its brand portfolio, Jollibee did not respond to CNA’s issues immediately. &nbsp,

STILL ON THE Fall

However, experts who spoke to CNA were convinced of Jollibee’s continuing progress, as it pushes towards its owner’s purpose to have 50 per cent of system-wide sales, which include owned and franchised stores, to travel from international company.

For the first nine months of the year, global operations made up 40.3 per share of system-wide income.

According to AP Securities ‘ Cipres, Jollibee was making corporate moves to expand its market share in various industries.

He pointed to another&nbsp, new acquisition- of Compose Coffee Company in South Korea- which he said would soon increase Jollibee’s earnings, since the chain is successful. &nbsp,

According to Prof. Gutierrez of the University of the Philippines, Jollibee could acquire Chinese, fast-food, or coffee shops.

Jollibee CFO Shin made a point during the media conference on Tuesday that the company had not yet entered some Southeast Asian markets like Indonesia and Thailand. &nbsp,

Those remain opportunities for growth, he said.

The fried chicken restaurant chain, which saw an increase in same-store sales of 8.2 % in the first three quarters of 2024 compared to the same period last year, is still a major success.

” Jollibee… will always be the’ nightmare’ of the’ M ‘ brand”, said&nbsp, Mr Banderlipe. ” (McDonald’s is ) the world’s number one, but not in the Philippines” .&nbsp,

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What game theory predicts Trump will and won’t do – Asia Times

Many people around the world are confused about what Donald Trump might do in his second term and whether some of the threats he made about foreign policy will be realized as a result of his success in the US presidential election.

The president-elect has threatened to make a number of significant policy changes after in office.

One of the most important issues with foreign policy is how the Trump administration may approach ending the conflict in Ukraine, in the opinion of some. Trump claimed that he could halt the conflict in a day. Different nations on Russia’s edges are concerned that any agreement that ends in a victory could lead to ideas for further military brutality, according to Vladimir Putin.

Also, if Trump abandons the US’s traditional support for the self-governing area of Taiwan, it may enable China into an invasion. The island’s status as a separatist state and its inclusion in China are seen by Beijing. But generally, US assistance of Taiwan has been a component in China holding up.

Mao Zedong’s failure after the civil war prevented Xi Jinping from establishing his reputation as the one who brought China together. In recent years, the Chinese leader has increased the pressure on Taiwan, and there are clear indications that he wants to advance.

However, neither Xi nor Putin is ensure that Trump did follow his own advice. How’s why.

A training from match idea, the scientific study of cooperation and competition, may be appropriate here – in particular, the scenario referred to as the” chicken game” or the “hawk-dove” game, which provides a model of conflict between two actors.

Because it follows the same reasoning as 1950s and 1960s contests between American teenagers, it is known as the” chicken activity.” They may drive their vehicles at high speeds, and the first to veer off to avoid a collision that might turn dangerous would be called” meat” and lose the game.

We can use a payoff matrix ( see below ) to explain the logic of this game. The speculative payoffs that could be produced by person A and player B are shown in this table. In each pair of result, person B’s return from their combined behavior is given first, followed by person A’s.

Paul Whiteley, &nbsp, Author provided ( no reuse )

A fall is the worst possible result for both people, so this pays a total of 0 for both. When player B swerves, player A should continue driving, with the payoffs visible in the top-right cell ( 1, 3 ). In the middle left body, player B experiences the same outcome. If both turn, the reward is 2 for each person.

Swerving is preferable to colliding, but the winner is the one who drives right at his or her backwards.

Nuclear punishment can be modelled using the hen game. In this situation, striking the player first before they can drive when they swerve is equivalent to striking them first. Needless to say, when both people launch attacks together, the result is a lot worse than the zero depicted in the structure.

The trick to winning the game is to persuade your rival to keep driving at all costs. For instance, some American teenagers would pretend to throw the steering wheel out of the car to warn their rival that they could not swerve in the middle of the road if they wanted to. This basically means that you must persuade your opponent to take that risk in order to win.

This is similar to what Trump does in some circumstances. He makes significant statements about what he will do, which might include what his rivals will do after they concede defeat.

Trump also has the advantage of unpredictability. The gap between what he says and does is significant, as Michael Wolff, the biographer of his first term in office, has detailed. Wolff said in an interview:” Donald Trump is deeply unpredictable, irrational, at times bordering on incoherent, self-obsessed in a disconcerting way, and displays all those kinds of traits that anyone would reasonably say: ‘ What’s going on here, is something wrong?'”

A couple of examples from Trump’s first term make the point that the president-elect often chooses moves that, historically, other US leaders have ruled out. Sometimes these moves are successful, in other cases, they are n’t.

In 2019, Trump made a historic visit to North Korea, the first US leader to do so. Trump made the suggestion that he was the only one who could bring about a new era of friendship between the countries at this meeting. However, he made a failed attempt to form a deal with North Korea and stop the country’s nuclear program. In this case, Trump’s unpredictability did not work.

However, his unpredictability provided another example of how the US had been longing for a solution. Trump aimed to “insult and alienate US allies” in his first term, attempting to stifle the NATO alliance.

And his threats to reduce US support helped him achieve his goal of persuading NATO member nations to increase their defense spending. He had hoped exactly that.

So, Trump’s unpredictability could be a deterrent to opponents such as Putin and Xi, as they do n’t know how he is likely to react, or when he might take offence. The US president has the potential to take this personally and even have an opinion against Putin if Trump rejects a peace agreement offered by Trump to Ukraine or accepts it after starting the war in his place.

Unpredictability and carelessness can pay off in conflict and negotiation situations, according to game theory. No one is yet to decide what Trump will do next, as a result.

Paul Whiteley is professor, Department of Government, University of Essex

The Conversation has republished this article under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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CBRE hires Hugh Macdonald as Apac head of capital advisers | FinanceAsia

CBRE, a US real estate and investment firm, has appointed veteran investment banker Hugh Macdonald as head of capital advisers for Asia Pacific.

Starting his role in Sydney on November 18, Macdonald will relocate to Singapore in the first quarter of 2025, according to a company media release. 

Macdonald (pictured) is joining CBRE from Deutsche Bank, where he was most recently head of investment banking coverage and advisory for Australia and New Zealand. He was at the German bank for over 16 years, according to his LinkedIn profile. 

He has previoulsy worked at Citi, Morgan Stanley and Bankers Trust, and has experience in real estate, gaming, leisure, and lodging sectors across M&A, financing, and capital markets.  

Macdonald has originated and executed many large transactions across Apac and will report to Leo van den Thillart, global head of investment banking, and Greg Hyland, head of capital markets, Apac.

Commenting in a media release, Hyland said: “Our capital advisors business has experienced exceptional growth in Apac, raising over $3.5 billion of capital in the past 18 months. With Hugh’s established relationships, we are confident in expanding our investment banking services across the region, providing top-tier capital markets, M&A, and strategic solutions to our clients.”

Macdonald added: “I’m eager to collaborate with my new colleagues to enhance the value we provide to our clients, meeting their diverse capital requirements and driving business growth throughout the Apac region.”

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New Zealand: Maori protest as hikoi reaches Wellington

Getty Images Hikoi members walk across the Auckland Harbour Bridge on day three of a nine-day journey to Wellington on November 13, 2024 in Auckland, New Zealand. Getty Images

A controversial bill that seeks to amend the country’s founding file between European colonists and Mori people is gathering with thousands of people marching on New Zealand’s congress to take the final actions.

Accommodations are sold out in the investment Wellington- up to 30, 000 people are expected to go Tuesday’s protest outside congress.

The show marks the end of a nine-day hīkoi, or quiet opposition, that’s been making its way through the state.

Mori activists and their followers who oppose the bill introduced by a young partnership part have been a part of the hkoi.

Some people believe that New Zealand is a global leader in supporting indigenous freedom, but many fear that these rights are now in jeopardy under Christopher Luxon’s center-right government.

Stan Lingman, who has both Mori and Swedes ancestry and plans to attend the rally, claims that” they are trying to get our right away.” “]The hikoi is ] for all New Zealanders – white, yellow, red, orange. This bill may be challenged by us.

Stan’s family Pamela says she’s going for her “mokos”, which means children in the Māori speech.

The 1840 Treaty of Waitangi is seen as essential to the country’s civilization relationships.

But under the Luxon state, there’s a problem that the right won by the Māori area are being eroded. The Act democratic party’s act asserts that New Zealand should officially determine the terms of the Treaty of Waitangi.

The group’s president, David Seymour, says that over time the treaty’s key principles have led to racial groups, no unity.

According to Seymour, who has Mori lineage,” My Treaty Principles Bill says that I have the same fundamental rights and dignity as everyone else, regardless of whether their ancestors came around a thousand years ago, as some of mine did, or simply got off the plane at Auckland International Airport this morning.”

” Your starting point is to get a human being and ask, what’s your lineage? Who are you as a person? That used to be called discrimination. It used to be called hatred. It used to be called monitoring and prejudice. You’re then attempting to profit from it. I think that’s a major mistake”.

He is accused of wasting time and causing unanticipated social strife by passing a costs. Prime Minister Luxon has called the act “divisive”- despite being part of the exact partnership.

Despite the differences, lot of followers feel the protest has gone too far.

” They]Māori] seem to want more and more and more”, says Barbara Lecomte, who lives in the southern suburbs north of Wellington. There is currently a cosmopolitan mix of various cultures. We are all New Zealanders. I believe equal freedom may be pursued cooperatively.

Equality, though, is still a way off, says Debbie Ngarewa-Packer, co-leader of Te Pāti Māori ( Maori Party ).

” We ca n’t live equally if we have one people who are the indigenous people living’ less than ‘”, she argues. The partnership government’s “absolute attempt to divide a country that is otherwise democratic and embarrassing” is what it is doing.

Rose Raharuhi Spicer

The opposition to the bill brought the country’s congress temporarily to a standstill last week by MPs performing a chant, or traditional dance. The video went viral.

” To see it in legislature, in the highest home in Aotearoa, there’s been a true state of shock and I think sorrow and grief that in 2024 when we see politicians and the Trump ends, this is what the Māori are having to endure”, says Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. Because we are typically seen as beating above our fat in all of life’s great things, the government finds it humiliating.

For those watching New Zealand and wanting to witness more hakas, this rally wo n’t disappoint. On Monday, organizers gave the participants a lesson in the words and movements of the haka, Te Tiriti o Waitangi ( the Waitangi Treaty ). Before the march, those in the audience eagerly repeated the songs written on a large white strip.

” This is n’t just any normal hīkoi – this is the hīkoi of everybody”, says grandmother Rose Raharuhi Spicer, explaining that they’ve called on non-Māori, Pacific Islanders and the wider population in New Zealand to support them.

This is HKOI Rose’s fifth appearance. She comes from New Zealand’s northern settlement, Te Hāpua, straight above Auckland. It’s the same town that the most popular hīkoi started from, again in 1975, protesting over land rights.

This day, she’s brought her children and grandchildren.

” This is our grandchildren’s legacy”, she says. ” It’s not just one person or one party – and to alter]it ] is wrong”.

On the grass outside, Leah Land, a 26-year-old from Whangārei, is putting the final touches to a signal for the rally which reads’ Honour It, Do n’t Change It’.

” I am here because I believe as a Pākehā]non-Māori], without those sacred documents I do n’t have a right to live and be on this land, so that’s the foundation of me being able to be here in this beautiful country”, she said, adding that the proposed bill was terrifying.

The saddest thing is that despite being light, my closest friends are Mori and I want Aotearoa New Zealand to be a place where they can live.

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To Donald Trump, From Han Feizi – Asia Times

Come, you masters of war, you that build the big guns

You that build the death planes, you that build all the bombs

You that hide behind walls, you that hide behind desks

I just want you to know I can see through your masks

– Bob Dylan

The historical Han Feizi of the second century BCE was China’s greatest Legalist scholar, whose ideas the Qin Emperor used to consolidate the Chinese state for the first time. Westerners could do worse than think of Han Feizi as China’s Niccolo Machiavelli. The similarities are uncanny despite a separation of 1,700 years and 8,000 kilometers.

Han Feizi has been making a comeback, becoming perhaps the third most discussed of China’s ancient sages and philosophers – right behind Confucius and Sun Tzu. President Xi is surely responsible, invoking Han Feizi in speeches, “When those who uphold the law are strong, the state is strong. When they are weak, the state is weak.”

Xi’s unyielding anti-corruption campaign draws from legalist tradition, wielding power through the punishment lever. But enough ink has been spilled on Han Feizi and the Legalists’ influence on Xi’s China.

Yours truly is more interested in what Han Feizi makes of the second coming of Donald Trump, what advice he would give the president-elect and what pitfalls he sees arrayed before America’s populist and perhaps authoritarian sovereign.

For mysterious reasons, Asia Times has the ability to channel history’s spirit world, conjuring the ghosts of Oswald Spengler and Cardinal Richelieu. It is now time that yours truly, after cosplaying the Legalist scholar for a year, does the esoteric seance and formally calls forth the Ghost of Han Feizi.     

“Stay back, all of you. I’ve come for one person and one person only,” I yelled through the portal, Pingduoduo electric mosquito swatter in hand, “Not you Confucius, nor you, Xunzi – a gentleman scholar Donald J Trump is not. And Mozi… go away, you’re totally useless. Maybe you can go comfort Kamala.”

“Y-y-you called for me?” Han Feizi said, as his apparition appeared behind the other sages, “A-a-after all these y-y-years? A-a-a-re m-m-m-my s-s-services r-r-r-required?”

“It’s you,” I said, “It’s really you! Yes, come, come… I’ve prepared a writing desk with silk parchment, brushes and ink. Don’t talk. I know your stammer gets bad when you’re nervous. Just write. We will take a picture of the manuscript and run it through Baidu translate when you’re finished…

“Oh, taking a picture is when you… ummm… and Baidu translate is… uhhh… never mind… sit down… relax. Let me tell you what has happened in the past 2,200 years. Let me tell you about a new empire called the United States of America. And let me tell you about the rise to power of its latest emperor – the strange, strange tale of Donald J Trump…”

BAIDU TRANSLATION OF HAN FEIZI’S MANUSCRIPT   

This new empire – this United States of America – has been expanding for almost 250 years. It’s not so new at all. Forgive me for being impressed; if I recall correctly, the Qin Emperor dispatched me to the spirit world before I had a chance to witness the application of my life’s work.

Most impressive about this Empire of the United States of America is that it has lasted 250 years without an emperor like Donald J Trump. The lands of the United States of America are truly blessed. When the land is bountiful and the people are few, husbands do not have to till the fields for the seeds of grass and the fruit of trees were enough for people to eat.

And wives do not have to weave for the skins of animals and birds provided sufficient clothing. There is an abundance of goods and so no one quarreled. Therefore no rich rewards were doled out. No harsh punishments were administered and yet the people themselves were orderly.

In my time, the Sinic-lands were already teaming with people and kingdoms and warlords. No one regarded five sons as a large number and these five sons in turn had five sons each so that before the grandfather has died, he has 25 grandchildren.

Hence the number of people increased, goods grew scarce and men had to struggle and slave for immediate living. Therefore they fell to quarreling and though rewards were doubled and punishments were piled on, they could not be prevented from growing disorderly.

This Empire of the United States of America had been feasting on the bounty of expansion – westward across a continent, into the ocean and right up against the Qin Empire’s shores (which 2,200 years later is now called the People’s Republic of Qin… not too shabby of me, if I do say so myself).

Across its eastern ocean, the Empire of the United States of America controls the geriatric continent of its origins and the lands from which its sacred texts emerged. But this empire controls these regions shabbily.

Greed and weakness have entangled the empire in unnecessary military conflict, draining resources and enticing challengers. Tianxia – all under heaven – is not at peace (Tianxia is a giant round ball? I can’t wait to tell Sun Tzu… it will blow his mind).

Internally, the Empire of the United States of America is beset with disorder. This empire is governed in the most peculiar way, with levers of power surrendered to venal merchants. Impoverished barbarians are entering the empire through unguarded borders.

Prices of goods have surged. Crime and squalor have swallowed up large swathes of once-great cities. The people are angry and the distractions of sports ball, undressed girls, moving paintings, trinkets, games of chance and soothing medicines are not enough to prevent disorder and quarrelling.

On the surface, this Donald J Trump, this crass merchant, this boastful cretin, this blathering buffoon, appears to be wholly incapable of rising to power. And yet here he is.

A sage ruler waits empty and still and must not reveal his desires, for if he reveals his desires, his ministers will put on the mask that pleases him. He must not reveal his will for if he does so, his ministers will show a different face.

From a place of darkness, the sage ruler observes the defects of others; see but does not appear to see; listen but does not appear to listen; know, but does not let it be known that he knows.

Emperor Donald J Trump appears to violate all of these maxims. And yet, he has not. As much as this emperor talks, the quantity and volume of his words mask a loud silence. He has said everything and revealed nothing. No one knows what he is plotting, putting all his ministers, all his subjects and all rulers of foreign lands on edge.

The emperor’s enemies are convinced that he is capable of every sort of bestial horror. The emperor’s friends believe he is just short of divine, capable of making the fallen empire great again. The emperor’s foreign adversaries vacillate between dismissing his buffoonery and sweating over the chaos he might unleash. The emperor’s ministers supplicate themselves before him, hoping to be rewarded with high office and fearing the punishment of his immortal words, “You’re fired!”

Emperor Donald J Trump is still learning. After the throne was wrested away by a lesser man, he spent four years in the wilderness contemplating his missteps. He had made many mistakes, chief among them was appointing ministers with hidden agendas with designs on the levers of power.

Reclaiming the throne from the lesser man and his band of imbeciles was a trivial feat. Avoiding past mistakes will be the greater challenge. Tigers prowl the palace halls, coveting the throne.

That is my diagnosis of the maladies afflicting the Empire of the United States of America. My prescription will be addressed directly to the emperor himself.

Your majesty, Emperor Donald J. Trump:

You have done well reclaiming the throne. But now the hard work begins. You are now surrounded by courtiers and supplicants, each with capabilities, incompetencies and agendas. When appointing ministers, you should:

  1. Assign one man to each office and do not let men talk to each other and then all will do their utmost.
  2. Hide your tracks, conceal your sources so that your subordinates cannot trace the springs of your action.
  3. Discard wisdom, forebear ability so that your subordinates cannot guess what you are about.
  4. Stick to your objectives and examine their results to see how they match.
  5. Take hold of the handles of government carefully and grip them tightly. Destroy all hope and smash all intention of wresting them from you. Allow no men to covet them.

If you do not guard the door, if you do not make fast the gate, then tigers will lurk there. Ministers like Marco Rubio, Peter Hegseth, Mike Waltz and Matt Gaetz are easily tamed. Rewards and punishments will collar and chain these tiger cubs and they should eat from your hand.

More dangerous are the tigers who believe themselves emperor makers – Miriam Adelson, Tim Mellon, Linda McMahon and one very wealthy, very capable and very ambitious Elon Musk. Concern yourself not with geriatric cases like Adelson, Mellon and McMahon; their interests – money and clan – are pedestrian and transparent. But Elon Musk, this merchant, this self-promoter, this manufacturer of useless trivia, must be brought to heel post haste.   

Minister Elon Musk is a man of celestial talent and with that comes commensurate ambition. Given the misfortune of his birth, he has no claim on the throne. Unfortunately, for a man of his caliber, to not covet the levers of power is impossible. If you think you have tamed him by shunting him off to write reports in a made-up ministry, make sure that is exactly what you have done.

Sinecures and made-up ministries will not placate this man. He has already done an end run around the palace with the naming of this ministry – DOGE (the Department of Government Efficiency) – putting his personal brand on your government department. Two roosters cannot occupy the same henhouse and you have invited this rooster in.

Given the vast resources at his disposal, Minister Elon Musk will attempt to apply the two levers of power on you, rewarding you and punishing you to do his bidding. That is what a sovereign must suffer when power has been surrendered to merchants. For guidance, look across the ocean to the People’s Republic of Qin. The sovereign showed unruly merchants their place and order now permeates his empire.    

If the two levers of power – reward and punishment – cannot subjugate merchants, these vermin will infiltrate the state and drain it of vitality. You must restrain these ministers with clear laws or risk rending asunder the state as ministries vie for power. If you cannot make the law clear and use it to restrain the authority of the high ministers, then you will have no means to win the confidence of the people at large.

If you discard the law and instead attempt to use some of your ministers to control others, then those who love each other will band together in groups for mutual praise, and those who hate each other will form cliques for mutual slander. With praise and slander striving to shout each other down, you will become bewildered and confused.

All under heaven do not know what your plans are for Ukraine, Israel, Iran, the People’s Republic of Qin, the surging price of goods, rising government debt, illegal barbarians, trade policy, industrial policy and your enemies deep within the bureaucracy.

It is vital that your ministers do not know either and merely implement what they have promised for the solutions to these problems are difficult and contradictory – some problems and some ministers must be sacrificed for others. It is your burden to ascertain the intentions and desires of ministers and place them in their positions ignorant of your ultimate designs.

Undertakings succeed through secrecy but fail through being found out. If you have not yet divulged your plans but in your discussions a minister deduces your intent, then he must be ruthlessly dispatched. If you are ostensibly seeking one thing but actually attempting to accomplish something quite different, you must destroy ministers who catch wind of your plans.

For now, I commend you for your wily ability to reveal nothing even while saying everything. Nobody can pin down what you believe, perhaps not even yourself. You promised to end the European war on day one of your coronation but have just appointed ministers who couldn’t be less willing to do so.

You have wage laborers in your corner and yet merchants and money lenders are rubbing their hands together. You threaten commercial war with the People’s Republic of Qin and yet you invite their magic chariot makers into your empire. These are all excellent moves. Keep your options open. Let no minister in your court or the court of your adversaries divine your intentions, for if they do, they will conspire to thwart you.

The portal to the spirit world is open for only so long and I will soon have to return. I cannot leave you without specifically addressing the Empire of People’s Republic of Qin. After a short blip in history, the descendant of Qin is returning to its role as the celestial center of civilization.

The Empire of the United States of America is thus careening towards confrontation with the People’s Republic of Qin (I can’t wait to tell Sun Tzu about everybody’s flashy weapons… it will blow his mind). Expansion in Tianxia is now treacherous as powerful empires and their vassals butt up against each other (Tianxia is one giant round ball? That will never stop being funny :D).

The disorder you see in the Empire of the United States of America is the result of thwarted expansion, squandering lives and treasure in far-off lands. The neglected home front fueled your rise to power and, with your permission, the necessity of Legalist government.

The Sinic lands reached carrying capacity in my lifetime and the subsequent Qin Empires have had 2,000 years of practice implementing Legalism. Their current emperor is well-schooled in the dark arts while you are learning on the fly and relying on instinct, excellent as they may be. What the emperor of the People’s Republic of Qin has but you lack is methodical discipline. He knows what he wants and how he will get there even if we do not. Do you know what you want?

With religious certainty, your tiger cub ministers are eager to confront the Empire of the People’s Republic Qin – which has been sharpening swords, making projectile arrows, building war junks and invisible flying machines. They have reorganized their craftsmen and traders to prepare for commercial war. Has the Empire of the United States of America adequately prepared for military or commercial conflict with the People’s Republic of Qin?

The portal is closing and I must bid you farewell. I wish you good fortune in you political endeavors and hope the Empire of the United States of America can adopt a Legalist government and last as long as the Empire of Qin.

Until we meet again…

Sincerely,

Han Feizi        

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Europe must pre-empt Ukraine sell-out, tsunami of Trump tariffs – Asia Times

The wonder of the American national election was how fast the results were made public, and newly elected president-elect Donald Trump has kept that unpredictability by announcing government choices. Except for those who had hoped vainly that he would be more reasonable in terms of government than he was in terms of campaigning, those choices have not been unexpected. They will then place a lot of pressure on Europe to adapt and respond, and they will do so quickly.

This aims to introduce Europe’s greatest failure while highlighting what, at least in the rare instances, results in such supremacy for a single political party and individual. In a system of the European Union intentionally designed to prevent one nation or person from becoming the strong, Europe moves slowly and by bargain. America’s national state can be far more significant.

Despite Ursula von der Leyen being re-elected as president on July 18, there is still no confirmation from the European Union that a new Western Commission is in place. Even more important, however, is failure in Germany and France: Germany’s Olaf Scholz faces a no-confidence ballot on December 16, paving the way to early general elections on February 23, France’s new prime minister, Michel Barnier, is battling to find his 2025 resources passed by a deeply divided National Assembly.

Obviously, the speed of Trump’s visits is largely misleading. He is making his judgments sooner than he did in 2016, but electorates are still unable to fill those positions until January 20 and beyond, or until their meetings have been confirmed by Senate votes. Trump’s desires for a smoother process may not be as good.

Trump’s Republican Party now holds a clear majority in the Senate, but his controversial choices of a malevolent nationalist, Congressman Matt Gaetz, as solicitor general, of an incompetent Fox News TV presenter, Pete Hesgeth, as secretary of defense, and of extremist Putin-sympathizer Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence may all experience opposition from more modest Republican Senators. Trump’s nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as secretary of health and human services is now on his list of consciously defamatory choices, which in effect challenge moderate Republicans to support him.

The new Commission is still awaiting action because the new European Commission are presently having their own assurance trials in the European Parliament. Officials may create emergency plans in response to Trump’s upcoming challenges, particularly in regards to business, security, and Ukraine. But without social management, those plans may be cast into question.

Solid governments that anticipate remaining in power for a while, similar to the total European response to Mario Draghi’s proposals to boost European competitiveness in July, will be required. Politicians who are shrouded in the support of their own political turmoil may also make some quick decisions.

Most importantly, the Scholz government, in its last weeks in office before the confidence vote, may make actions towards helping Ukraine strengthen its bargaining location, safe in the knowledge that such activities may be supported by the center-right criticism. The center-right Christian Democrats ‘ leader, Friedrich Merz, has long supported Ukraine, but he may also support a swift resolution with Scholz that assumes responsibility for such a decision, reducing the chance that it will spark controversy during the election.

Although Keir Starmer, the newly elected prime minister, is unopposed in the United Kingdom, it may be persuaded to back a decision by Scholz and Merz to send more weapons to Ukraine and, in particular, to permit Ukraine to use those weapons for long-range strikes against Russia. Long-range missile strikes into Russia would have the best chance of thwarting an imminent major Russian offensive that will attempt to retake control of the land held by Ukrainian forces since August in the Kursk region.

Trump’s biggest trade challenge wo n’t be until after January 20, but Europe should be prepared to impose a 10 % or 20 % tariff on its exports to the United States within his first few days in office. Awkwardly, that will fall during the German election campaign. But Scholz

This article, published on Bill Emmott’s Global View, is the English original of an article published in Italian by La Stampa. It is republished with permission.

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Indonesia’s Prabowo tilting perceptibly toward China – Asia Times

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto has had a cyclone year. He was seated with President Joe Biden in the White House on November 9 while he was negotiating with Taiwanese leader Xi Jinping. Subianto contacted Donald Trump to thank him on his success in the US election while he was at it.

Subianto’s two-week international trip includes visits to Peru, Brazil, the UK, and a number of Middle Eastern nations as well as the trips to the United States and China.

The itinerary suggests the president of Southeast Asia’s largest economy’s new administration’s political priorities, which are balancing Indonesia’s relations with key West and global South allies, and pursuing a more forceful leadership position in Southeast Asia.

The position Indonesia tries to play in ensuring local stability and security in the Indo-Pacific is highlighted by Subianto’s back-to-back discussions with Xi and Biden.

A US-Indian aquatic workout is currently being conducted off the Indonesian area of Batam at the time of the sessions. Similar maneuvers between US and Southeast Asian companions have tended to be framed as a deterrent to China’s aggressiveness in the disputed waters of the South China Sea in the next quarterly military workout of its kind.

Subianto and Xi were making nice-nature promises to increase coastal cooperation between the two nations while the US and Indonesian troops carried out maneuvers. The big question is now how Indonesia’s Indo-Pacific safety balance will be affected by a Trump White House.

Trump’s Indo-Pacific plan

Trump’s first term as president provides some insight into how his Indo-Pacific scheme might change in the future. The&nbsp, 2019 Indo-Pacific Strategy Report&nbsp, issued by the Trump presidency marked China as a “revisionist” power—that is, one that is dissatisfied with the latest status quo—and an aspiring local superpower.

To counter this, Trump adopted an “offshore balancing” plan – in consequence utilizing local friends to stay China in check. Security agreements with conventional allies and joint military training exercises with nations like Indonesia and the Philippines were used as part of this strategy.

Additionally, it included providing military technology to regional partners and sporadically-performed “freedom of navigation” businesses by the US Navy.

A globe shows Chinese writing over various islands.
China’s nine-dash column takes in place claimed by different countries. Photo: AP via The Conversation / Andy Wong

But there was another side to Trump’s Indo-Pacific plan.

Trump was open to escalation with China in the South China Sea in exchange for Beijing’s assistance in battling North Korea, one of the region’s biggest threats to stability, despite the US’s lack of direct security interests there ( no US territories are threatened ), but worried about a military conflict if Beijing agreed to cooperate in addressing one of the region’s biggest security threats, including North Korea.

Under Trump’s second management, Indonesia received a challenge and possibility by easing the pressure on Beijing in the South China Sea and providing local security to Washington’s Indo-Pacific friends.

In order to fulfill its crucial political responsibilities to preserve regional security, Indonesia was required to lead the dialogue of the South China Sea code of conduct as Southeast Asia’s largest and most populous country.

Subianto tilts toward China

Indonesia has much shown a willingness to take on the safety of the region. Subsequent leaders have taken the responsibility seriously, especially given the country’s constitutional authority to do an “independent and lively” foreign plan.

In order to improve their standing as an independent professional, Indonesian leaders have generally avoided getting too close to the US or China.

However, Indonesia’s foreign policy has begun to change significantly since Subianto became chairman of Indonesia in October 2024.

Weeks after his opening, Subianto sent his new foreign secretary to Kazan, Russia, to attend the meeting of BRICS countries and show Indonesia’s desire to join the expanding alliance of non-Western markets.

China is the group’s largest representative, and it aims to be an alternative to European security and economic structures. This conventional expression of intention to meet BRICS marks a change from coverage under Subianto’s forerunner, Joko Widodo.

Additionally, a joint declaration made during Subianto’s attend to Beijing suggests that Indonesia is beginning to consider South China Sea maritime claims made by Beijing.

For years, Indonesia refused to acknowledge Beijing’s says on rocks and reefs within Indonesia’s special economic zone in the waters around Natuna – an Indian island that connects with China’s “nine-dash line” denoting the region Beijing sees as Chinese.

However, the joint statement from Subianto’s visit to Beijing stated that the two nations had reached” an essential typical understanding on mutual growth in areas of intersecting says” that was in line with “respective prevalent laws and regulations.”

Speak of “overlapping says” is a departure for Indonesia and suggests that Subianto is more open to embracing Beijing’s restrictions in the South China Sea.

OECD or BRICS? Or both?

This does n’t mean Indonesia is restricting its options for greater cooperation with the West either. During the White House leg of Subianto’s visit, Biden signaled the US’s strong support for Indonesia’s push to join the Western-dominated Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development ( OECD ).

With the business establishing international standards and supporting Indonesia, the organization may act as a benchmarking body for Indonesia to help it get higher-quality foreign investment.

President of Indonesia Prabowo Subianto meets his U. S. equivalent. But will the gap between the two nations eventually grow? by Alex Wong/Getty Images

BRICS account, however, would reflect more of a political and economic shift that would position Indonesia alongside other states seeking an alternative to the U. S. dominated international organizations.

If Trump’s plan to impose high tariffs on foreign goods is implemented, Indonesia’s interest may only grow.

Providing cover for Subianto

In response to a Trump White House, Indonesia certainly seems to have the potential to adopt a more pro-Beijing stance under Subianto.

Trump’s immediate attention is likely to be heavily influenced by conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, pushing security concerns in Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific region in particular further down the list.

The Chinese government continues to maintain its policy of limiting South China Sea trade and exerting economic influence on all of Southeast Asia’s countries.

Some observers are already questioning whether Indonesia’s change in the South China Sea’s disputed territory is related to China’s economic cooperation, which includes the US$ 10 billion in deals signed during Subianto’s visit to Beijing.

And a more secretive, anti-interventionist White House under Trump might give Subian the opportunity to aide Indonesia in advancing its position as a regional leader while strengthening its economic and strategic ties to China and the Global South.

Idil Syawfi is an assistant professor of international relations at the University of Katolik Parahyangan, and Angguntari Ceria Sari is a lecturer there.

The Conversation has republished this article under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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