CNA Explains: Why are Indonesians protesting?

MR. JOKOWI tries to do what, exactly?

Describing the Jokowi-Prabowo ally as “tenuous”, Professor Vedi Hadiz, chairman of the Asia Institute at University of Melbourne, said that once Mr Prabowo assumes the best job, Mr Jokowi’s control will be considerably eroded.

Prof Hadiz, who teaches Eastern reports, explained what might be at job.

” All of the patronage networks that ( Mr Jokowi ) has built potentially could shift to Prabowo’s direction. Therefore, what he needs to do is place as many people as possible in important opportunities to ensure that Prabowo has liquidity on him,” he told CNA’s Asia First.

He noted that Mr. Jokowi was even able to remove the former head of the second-largest social party in the country, Golkar, and replace him with a nationalist.

” He’s obviously positioning himself but that he does not become useless, outdated come October 20, when Prabowo becomes leader”, said Prof Hadiz.

While Mr. Jokowi has typically attracted high ratings of support, a lot of his actions have become” so obvious in its intention of grabbing his power and influence” as he has said, according to Prof. Hadiz.

He added that Indonesians no longer tolerated his previous deeds because of it.

” We have to see whether this explosion of rally is a one-off that, after this particular discussion has passed, whether it builds up into something more regular, where some sort of civil society-based surveillance of the elites can get place”, he said.

However, recent history in Indonesia has revealed that maintaining these things is extremely difficult, largely because the opposition is incredibly fragmented and poorly organized.

CAN THE LAWS STILL Get CHANGED?

The chances of parliament reconvening before that are “virtually zero,” according to Prof. Chin, and registration for regional elections begins on Tuesday ( Aug 27 ). &nbsp,

There is another deterrent for the government, he said: The way the matter has resonated with Indonesia’s fresh. &nbsp,

” If they ( the government ) try to pull a fast one, I suspect nobody is willing to pay the political price”, he said.

While passing the law before Tuesday “does seemed economically and naturally impossible,” Prof. Hadiz claimed that there is a “history of high-level collusion among the social leaders” behind why the protesters in Indonesia have continued to follow what is happening.

” They do n’t trust anything that comes out of the mouth of the leadership, of parliament. So essentially, they’re standing by to make sure that no crawl attempt to hold a conference will take place”, he said.

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Thaksin”s vision to reshape Thailand

Past Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has returned after 17 years of being away from Thailand with ideas to create and handle the country’s issues.

His main goals for Thailand’s transformation were laid out at the Nation Group” Vision for Thailand” function:

    Restructuring and hair of family loan: To put these steps into effect, the finance minister must work with the Thai Bankers ‘ Association and the Bank of Thailand.

  1. Legalising the underwater economy: Thailand has a large underwater economy, now estimated to be about 50 % of the established economy. If this can be brought above ground, the GDP may increase by 50 %, especially by legalising online gaming, where Thais now lose 170 billion ringgit annually.
  2. Professional restructuring: By reducing electricity costs and promoting clean energy, Thailand had become a safe haven for industries exporting to different regions like United States, China, Europe, and others, as Thailand faces no considerable political issues.
  3. Entertainment compounds: This could include games that make up no more than 10 % of the area and require hundreds of billions of dollars in capital expenditures.
  4. Land profits to foreigners: Thais would be able to buy property to foreigners, but the title deed may get transferred to the Treasury Department, which would then rent the property to the foreign purchaser for 99 years.
  5. 20 Baht electric train survive: This could be achieved by the government reviving secret electric train tasks, lowering ticket costs, and introducing congestion fees for users of passenger cars to help pay for public transport.
  6. Agricultural transformation: Leveraging R&amp, D to increase value to agricultural goods, such as producing high-fiber, low-carbohydrate corn.
  7. Land Reclamation: Reclaiming property in areas like Bang Khun Thian and Pak Nam to produce new green places, tourist sights, and disaster protection for Bangkok.
  8. Negotiating maritime overlapping areas: Expelling negotiations with Cambodia to use fossil fuels in the sea together before the world transitions away from fossil fuels.
  9. Financial hub: Establishing operations in Thailand as a financial hub to draw in foreign banks.
  10. Tax restructuring: Implementing negative income tax to refund money to low-income earners, while also considering reductions in corporate and personal income taxes.
  11. Enhancing tourism potential: Expanding airports, developing man-made tourist attractions, and amending laws to facilitate private jet travel.
  12. Bureaucratic reform: Reducing the number of civil servants, curbing ballooning budgets, and increasingly using technology to replace manual processes.
  13. Promoting Soft Power in All Forms: Develop an ecosystem to support and enhance Muay Thai, Thai cuisine, fashion, and other cultural assets.
  14. Adopting protectionism: To ensure fair competition in the market, especially against low-quality, cheap imports, and to develop Thai SMEs into smart SMEs producing unique products, as they cannot compete with China’s economy of scale.

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Yuan to surge as yen carry trade goes awry – Asia Times

Tokyo – Chinese officials are concerned about the impact on manufacturers of a stronger yuan. As soon as the so-called “yen carry trade” turns awry across international currency markets, those fears may be validated.

Ever since the Bank of Japan’s July 31 interest rate hike, the dollar’s resulting wave has upended foreign exchange markets.

Twenty-five times of holding rates at zero turned Japan into the world’s top bank country, where for generations purchase funds &nbsp, borrowed cheaply&nbsp, in japanese to bet on higher-yielding assets worldwide. It developed into one of the most crowded trades on the planet, one that was especially vulnerable to corrections, when unexpected yen movements literally slammed the industry.

The currency’s 6 % march over the last 22 days has put the renminbi under considerable higher pressure. In a way that Chinese President Xi Jinping might not like, its march is raising the yen in ways that the currency’s failure earlier this year did not.

The People’s Bank of China has attempted to prevent the yuan from falling too far this season. A weaker yuan would raise the risk of default for China Evergrande Group by making it more difficult for Chinese developers to make payments on dollars and another foreign-denominated offshore ties.

A weaker renminbi that makes Chinese exports perhaps more competitive may rankle Washington at the top of a raunt US election plan where both Republicans and Democrats have portrayed China as the country’s top enemy number one. Beijing’s efforts to boost investor confidence in the yuan as a benefit store and compete against the money may also suffer as a result of a falling renminbi.

But the degree to which the renminbi now faces higher pressure may be irking&nbsp, Xi’s internal circle. And that anxiety might be about to intensify if economist Guan Tao, who previously worked for China’s foreign-exchange regulator, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange ( SAFE), has it right.

According to Guan, “people wo n’t be interested in holding the dollar and profiting from the yield gap” if they see a sign that the yuan could increase by 3 % to 4 %.” ” The carry business opportunities may be closed, and it could occur quick”.

Guan, who’s then chief analyst at Bank of China International, thinks Beijing may bear chinese recognition to some extent. Doing so might, at the margin, calm the worst cash flows from China since at least 2016. The perception that Xi’s group has been spooked so much that officials have decided to release less high-frequency data has soared.

” Beijing stopped the release because the data has n’t been looking good, and it’s volatile”, notes Xin Yao Ng, Asia-region director of investments at abrdn, formerly Standard Life Aberdeen Plc, who stresses that” they probably do n’t want the data to amplify capital outflows” but “it does n’t solve the root of the problem”.

Could that lead to issues with control for present Secure officials? Just time will tell, but a significant increase in the yuan could be a big wind for Asia’s largest economy at the worst possible time.

Exports have long been one of the best stuff the Chinese market has going for it. In July, overseas shipping grew 7 % year on year. However, exports are running a little below projections. Continued yuan strength could make this year’s 5 % gross domestic product target ( GDP ) harder to achieve.

One great unknown for&nbsp, China&nbsp, is the way of US Federal Reserve plan. &nbsp, In 2022 and 2023, Chairman Jerome Powell carried out the Fed’s most violent monetary tightening period in about 20 years, causing Silicon Valley Bank and another mid-size lenders to fall.

The Fed is currently leaning toward a rate cut as the US labor market exhibits signs of strain. Traders are paying close attention to Powell’s speech at the Fed’s annual conclave this week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for details on when and how much.

We believe Powell’s assessment will be comforting and consistent with a soft base of a string of 25s, but he will also convey that the Fed is still open to 50s, and that the demand for this is not very high, according to Evercore ISI analysts.

The investment bank’s economists think Powell will express confidence that inflation pressures are receding, heading back to the Fed’s 2 % target. A decision might be made as soon as the following month.

” We do n’t expect a hard steer as to whether the first move will be a 25 basis-point or 50 basis-point cut”, Evercore ISI argued. The bank predicts that Powell will call any rate change based on upcoming data.

Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, thinks Powell will&nbsp, cut rates&nbsp, just once and call it quits. He thinks that’s particularly likely if the August jobs report, due out September 6, comes in weak.

Among economists who believe the US is stronger than upcoming data might suggest, count Yardeni.

” The markets are very dovish”, Yardeni told CNBC. Although the September meeting’s expenses are 25 to 50 basis points, I believe there are still hopes that we might even have 100 basis points by the year end. But on the contrary, Yardeni predicted, “it’s going to be 25 basis points at the September meeting and I think it’s going to be one and done. Simply put, the economy is performing too well.

Another big question mark is the BOJ’s outlook. Additional rate increases in Japan could cause the yen to go sharply higher, causing a dramatic increase in the carry trade.

Carlos&nbsp, Casanova, economist at Union Bancaire Privée, thinks upcoming data will “reinforce the Bank of Japan’s hawkish policy stance, despite persistent challenges. Therefore, we expect that the BOJ will implement one more 10-25 basis point hike in the fourth quarter. The BOJ’s pivot has caused the market volatility and expectations of a strengthening yen, which could reduce the benefits of imported inflation and reduce travel spending.

Economists at Fitch’s BMI Research “expect that&nbsp, the BOJ&nbsp, will take a more cautious approach and only hike by 25 basis points this year to 0.50 %, down from our previous view for 50 basis points” of additional tightening.

But three unknowns hang heavy over markets. One, &nbsp, the&nbsp, BOJ interest rate hike cycle for which many traders are bracing may be far more mild than even dovish economists expect.

Two, a widening&nbsp, yield curve band could prompt the&nbsp, BOJ&nbsp, to&nbsp, leave rates on hold for the rest of 2024. &nbsp, Three, Governor Kazuo Ueda is more trapped in&nbsp, the&nbsp, world’s boldest experiment with ultra-loose monetary policy than markets seem&nbsp, to&nbsp, realize.

From March 2013 to April 23, Ueda’s predecessor Haruhiko Kuroda cornered Japan’s government bond market and became by far&nbsp, the&nbsp, biggest holder of stocks via exchange-traded funds. &nbsp, The&nbsp, BOJ gorged on assets across&nbsp, the&nbsp, economy in a bid&nbsp, to&nbsp, end 20-plus years of deflation and malaise.

Kuroda was tapped by&nbsp, the&nbsp, late Shinzo Abe, prime minister from 2012 to 2020, and did n’t disappoint: his&nbsp,” shock and awe” campaign was so aggressive&nbsp, that&nbsp, it drove&nbsp, the&nbsp, yen down 30 % in short order. By 2018, &nbsp, the&nbsp, BOJ’s balance sheet topped&nbsp, the&nbsp, size of Japan’s entire$ 5 trillion economy, a first for a Group of Seven nation.

But&nbsp, the&nbsp, odds of Ueda now taking&nbsp, big risks &nbsp, to normalize rates may be a reach. Fumio Kishida, the prime minister who took office in October 2021, has been the least cautious liberal-democrat leader Japan has had in decades.

Yet rising inflation, Tokyo’s deteriorating security situation, a series of scandals among&nbsp, his&nbsp, cabinet members and fallout from Abe’s assassination in July 2022 have conspired to drop Kishida’s approval rating into the 20s.

Last week, Kishida announced he wo n’t run for another term at the LDP’s party election in September. One reason is the&nbsp, complete failure&nbsp, to&nbsp, implement any part of&nbsp, his&nbsp, “new capitalism” plan to raise living standards and rekindle Japan’s innovative animal spirits.

It’s largely the “bad” kind, imported thanks to higher commodity prices and an undervalued exchange rate, now that Japan is experiencing the inflation the BOJ was mandated to generate.

Yet many economists worry Japan is n’t as ready for tighter monetary policy as many believe as higher rates could thrust&nbsp, the&nbsp, economy back toward recession. Though wages are showing signs of life, paychecks have flatlined for 25 years, a pre-existing condition made worse by&nbsp, the&nbsp, last two-plus years of Covid-19 trauma. Nothing Kishida did these last 34-plus months is likely&nbsp, to&nbsp, increase Japanese prosperity.

One flash of good news: In June, inflation-adjusted wages rose for the first time in 27 months, up 1.1 % from a year earlier.

The results are “purchasing good overall, with signs for a rise in private consumption supported by real wage growth,” says Meiji Yasuda Research Institute economist Kazutaka Maeda. It supports the BOJ’s prediction and suggests that rate increases will increase, but the central bank would be cautious because the yen had recently experienced a sharp increase in the previous rate increase.

Of course, the June wage jump is still less than half the rate of inflation. Still, Ueda could surprise markets with more assertive-than-expected rate hikes. The resulting shockwaves could complicate China’s economic outlook in particular. The same goes for what happens&nbsp, in the US&nbsp, in the months ahead.

According to economists at Guotai Junan Securities,” Looking forward, we think it might not be necessary for China’s central bank to influence the continued appreciation of the yuan.” The performance of US economic data may affect the yuan exchange rate more in the near future.

The amount of fiscal stimulus Xi’s government injects into the economy will also affect the yuan’s trajectory. According to Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Capital, “politicians are likely to be in a rush to provide more stimulus, such as accelerating special bond issuance and the purchase of housing inventory from developers.” ” It seems that policymakers ca n’t miss the growth target, but they do n’t want to over-deliver either”.

According to Capital Economics economists, the PBOC’s recent rate cuts are insufficient to spur a significant recovery because private credit demand is still weak. We anticipate only a further 20 basis point cut to the loan prime rate this year, which wo n’t be sufficient to support a resurgence in credit demand.

Goldman Sachs analysts added that, as the PBOC highlights” the importance of counter-cyclical adjustment to support domestic demand, we maintain our forecast for a 25 basis-point]reserve requirement ratio ] &nbsp, cut in the third quarter to facilitate increased government bond issuance and a 10 basis-point policy rate cut in the fourth quarter to lower&nbsp, funding costs&nbsp, for the real economy.”

However, much of how Pan&nbsp Gongsheng reacts to global events for the remainder of 2024 may depend on Tokyo decisions, where his Japanese counterpart at the BOJ controls the fate of the yen-carry trade.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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China’s eateries slash prices by up to half to woo diners hungry for value, but at what cost?

According to spectators, a competitive environment is compelled to provide more value to extremely budget-conscious diners, particularly as the economy is deteriorating and prices are rising, making it more difficult for consumers to tighten their belts.

They also warn against continuing cost reductions from the perspective of the company. Eating establishments also need to make sure their food and service requirements are upheld, in order for their popularity to suffer. &nbsp,

According to Mr. Daniel Zipser, who leads McKinsey’s customer and financial function in Asia, “winners will be those who adapt quickly to new market trends and are adaptable to consumer demands with excellent service level.”

THE QUEST FOR Price

From cuisine to espresso, F&amp, B manufacturers have been slashing costs to get exceedingly budget-conscious diners in a competitive marketplace. &nbsp,

Among them is high-end diner network Hefu Noodle, which announced price reductions in June. A standard dish of pasta costs between 16 and 29 renminbi for members, almost half the price of a regular bowl of noodles when the company was founded in 2012 when Beijing Business Today first launched.

However, common Taiwanese-style cuisine network Xiabu Xiabu announced in May that the prices of its new list would “return to the ancient days”.

According to local media website Guangzhou Daily, average set meal prices that have decreased by more than 10 %, with a single food costing 58 yuan on average and a double meal costing 130 yuan.

The latest developments have sparked conversation on Taiwanese social media platforms. A netizen remarked,” Cuisine prices are falling faster than the heat of the broth.

Local diners are slashing costs, and international fast food chains are also bucking the trend. According to a report released on August 4 by the state-run newspaper Global Times, US fast food giant Burger King is pricing its unique burgers at 9.9 yuan each, almost a fourth of what it was originally priced at.

In the area of caffeine, which Reuters reported in May, Starbucks has increased the number of discount deals being offered nationwide. Belinda Wong, the CEO of Starbucks China, stated in January that the business is” not interested in entering the rate battle.”

According to experts, the price cuts are intended to entice customers because consumer spending is sucked in by the nation’s second-largest economy’s economic and labor market problems. &nbsp,

According to a research report released by Daxue Consulting in April, the latest craze for customers in China is to look for value-for-money choices.

Of the 1, 000 survey respondents, 32.6 per share viewed value as the top concern. Second was the presence of particular recipes, followed by the restaurant’s general atmosphere. &nbsp,

The current trend of pricing is not a passing cycle, and is a reaction to major shifts in the market, said Ms Ashley Dudarenok, chairman of China-focused digital firm ChoZan.

She also made note of the fact that consumer choices for the Foreign F&amp, B business vary considerably depending on the individual and the time party.

According to a survey conducted by McKinsey &amp, Company at the end of 2023, client attitudes in industrial China varied significantly between different age groups.

The Gen Zs, aged 18 to 25, exhibit a more “optimistic” perspective on their economic prospects, leading them to spend more on excellent services that offer personal and social significance. &nbsp,

In comparison, the rising middle class in primary- and second-tier towns, especially those aged 26 to 41, tends to follow a more traditional approach to investing, particularly on F&amp, B. &nbsp,

This is often due to their financial agreements, such as children’s education and loan payments, said Mr Zipser.

Better Swallows, BUT AT WHAT COST?

Experts warn that such actions may not be responsible in the long run despite F&amp, B companies dangling discounts and promotions to give consumers more for their penny.

According to Mr. Zipser, the effects on company loyalty and long-term success is questionable, particularly if lower prices come with a price.

” Consumers are looking for price choices, but compromising on service quality can quickly damage a company’s picture”, he said.

Ms Chen, the hotpot standard who frequents chain restaurant brands, said that based on her observations, outlets scarcely maintain portion sizes after reducing prices, even if the quality of food stays the same.

” For example, after Tai Er ( known for its Chinese sauerkraut fish ) lowered its prices, the portion size of its signature pickled fish dish became smaller”, she claimed.

In a Jul 19 report from the Chinese financial paper The Securities Times, Jiumaojiu acknowledged that the exclusive pursuit of low prices is “unsustainable.” &nbsp,

The catering business added that it would instead” continue to maintain the product value-for-money ratio while achieving a balance between quality and price.”

Similarly, Haidilao does n’t see lower prices as the pivotal factor in attracting business, even as it comes out with more budget ventures.

The Chinese hotpot chain first introduced Xiao Hai Hotpot last year, which the company claims is aimed at offering affordable yet high-quality hotpot options. Customers have each spent under 80 yuan on average, it added.

According to popular review and rating app Dianping, checks by CNA found that a 54-yuan value for an individual weekday lunch hotpot set meal coupon at Xiao Hai Hotpot is comparable to a children’s meal coupon, which is only valid for 0. 9 yuan.
 

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US-China financial stress hotline a well-timed connection – Asia Times

It could hardly be much timed for the US and China to announce how to handle upcoming “financial stress occasions” in the country’s two biggest economies and above.

This dialogue platform is the most renowned product from last week’s conference of the Financial Working Group&nbsp, created next season following US Treasury Secretary&nbsp, Janet Yellen’s 2023 China visit.

The idea, according to the People’s Bank of China, is to help “professional, logical, candid and creative” diplomatic discussions on money markets, cross-border bills and monetary policy styles.

The exchange of “lists of economic stability connections” will be beneficial as the chances of the world economy and financial markets becoming unstable grow by the day.

At the moment, the US market is on quite a move. Consider Barclays planner Erick Martinez among those who are “back to the US soft-landing scenario” after perusing the most recent data. Martinez factors to the recent rise in currencies, which boosted fears of the US recession previously.

But there’s still enough scope for unpleasant surprises. Another investor is concerned that Jerome Powell’s group is now acting very weak in the face of persistently high inflation, just like the US Federal Reserve has been.

For any businessman betting” King Dollar” may continue to defy weight, another is eyeing the US federal loan topping US$ 35 trillion with extraordinary dread.

That’s especially so as Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, the BRICS, lead a demand among Gulf area and International South nations to tear the dollar’s dominance and make significant progress.

Never mind the US vote on November 5, which is almost certain to go down in secrecy if Donald Trump loses. The uprising he sparked at the US Capitol caused America’s credit score to fall along with it when the former US president lost in 2020.

In August 2023, when Fitch Ratings revoked Washington’s Professional position, it said fragmentation, partly reflected in the January 6, 2021 rebellion, was vital to the decision. The insurrection was a “reflection of the deterioration in governance,” as Fitch analyst Richard Francis put it, putting US finances at risk.

Many political observers and market observers think that Trump’s chances of admitting defeat to Democratic Party standard bearer Kamala Harris in November are essentially nonexistent. Might that prompt Moody’s Investors Service to yank away America’s last AAA credit rating?

A Trump victory might be a good thing for the newly established US-China “financial stability contacts list.” If the ex-leader sticks to his campaign trail rhetoric, which threatened to impose 60 % taxes on Chinese goods and broader import taxes, then Trump 2.0 would likely try to start a great trade war once more.

Risks emanating from China, meanwhile, are high and rising. Home prices that are falling continue to lower property investment and lower consumer spending.

In the first seven months of 2024, China’s fixed-asset investment growth slowed more than expected, rising just 3.6 % to 28.7 trillion yuan ($ 4 trillion ).

According to Lynn Song, ING Bank’s chief economist for Greater China, “unsurprisingly remained weak.” He continues,” we think that there is still a strong case for further easing later this year.”

According to Lynn, “weak credit, low inflation, and soft growth should provide abundant reasons for easing, and there should be little holding the PBOC back from further cuts” if yuan depreciation pressures decline after US rate cuts begin.

Indeed, the PBOC has been lowering rates. On July 22, for example, the PBOC cut the one-year loan prime rate benchmark to 3.35 % from 3.45 %. It was the first cut in this category since August 2023.

To economist Zhang Zhiwei, president of Pinpoint Asset Management, it was a” step in the right direction”. But, Zhang says, “monetary policy is not the most important policy tool. The impact of fiscal policy on the second half of the year is crucial.

For President Xi Jinping’s team, the fiscal piece of the puzzle remains a work in progress. The typical strategy of increasing infrastructure spending wo n’t, according to Societe Generale’s economists, produce the required multiplier effect this time around. Nor will increasing export orders be done, especially as the West constructs protective walls against them.

” The Chinese economy, given its size, cannot run on manufacturing and exports alone”, Societe Generale wrote. If domestic demand is still the target, policymakers must increase support for it in order to meet the 5 % growth target.

It’s clear the “economy’s momentum slowed”, notes economist Ding Shuang at Standard Chartered Plc. Policymakers would also be concerned about the goal of achieving 5 % growth this year because of this.

Neralla Rama Ravi Teja, a GlobalData analyst, stated that” an increase in household consumption will give a push to the consumer footfall at these outlets. In addition, with the property sector and exports struggling, the country’s economic stability is dependent on increasing consumer spending and restoring consumers ‘ confidence”.

Teja continues,” China will have to reduce its dependence on manufacturing and shift its focus to the services sector.” In the near future, the government is likely to take additional measures to increase its domestic consumption.

Rory Green, the chief China economist at TS Lombard, notes that” we continue to see consumption decelerating” as confidence, income and negative wealth effects caused by weak property and stocks undermine growth.

As investors become more wary of the outlook’s economic outlook, China may be in the middle of its first year of outflows from equities this year. At the same time, China’s overcapacity troubles are causing new strains in different sectors.

Earlier this month, Hengchi, an electric vehicle ( EV ) maker owned by China Evergrande Group, went bankrupt. Being severely short of money and having to deal with obligations to creditors and, in some cases, local governments are not alone.

To be sure, the causes of China’s overcapacity woes are n’t straightforward, notes economist Yang Yao at the National School of Development at Peking University. There is a strong argument that China is benefiting from efforts to boost productivity in order to strengthen its pricing position.

” The extent of China’s overcapacity problem has become increasingly evident in recent years”, Yao argues. ” While the Chinese economy accounts for 17 % of global GDP, it&nbsp, produces 35 % &nbsp, of the world’s manufacturing output. Exports have historically helped to balance this imbalance, but in the face of declining global demand and escalating geopolitical tensions, Chinese exporters are increasingly being forced to compete on price.

How can China address its overcapacity issue? The” seemingly obvious solution”, Yao says, “is to increase domestic demand. However, this requires changing the population’s saving behavior, which would take time. Moreover, given its aversion to taking on debt, it is doubtful that the government will boost its spending”.

In the meantime, “regrettably, increased geopolitical tensions have knocked many countries, including the US and China, off the optimal path”, Yao says. It is incumbent on both nations to lead and collaborate to restore the world economy in light of the potential global repercussions of Sino-American decoupling.

The good news is that Beijing and Washington are now able to exchange lists of financial stability contacts to deal with any upcoming financial stress events, hopefully in real time.

According to the PBOC, that will “help financial management departments of both sides maintain timely and smooth communication channels and lessen uncertainty when financial stress events and financial institutions’ operational risks occur”

The bad news is that as the world financial system enters a uniquely chaotic period, these channels of communication are sure to be roost early and frequently. Perhaps 24/7.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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Niche sports in Singapore hope kitefoiling’s Olympic glow helps buoy their communities

POLE AND AERIAL Sporting

Over the past ten years, there have also been more people playing mast and flying activities in studios. The word includes fields like pole dance, flying hoops and flying silks, where individuals perform acrobatic techniques on apparatuses.

Industry experts claim there are now more than 40 such locations across the peninsula from only four studios ten years ago.

In their particular age groups, Singapore has the world’s No. 2 and No. 11 in aerial basket.

Natalie Ng, the earth number 11 in the flying hoop sports wealthy women’s 18 category, said Maeder’s Olympian bronze gives her hope that underwater sports, too, is one day gain worldwide recognition.

” I’m currently really motivated to train even more.” I want to create Singapore happy, finally standing on the floor, holding the Singapore flag”, she said.

Coach Tracy Mak said:” We just need to get more national federations around the world to ( become ) a full-fledged sport, and hopefully one day be in the Olympics”.

She did, however, warn that the dream still needs to be realized because there is currently no federation in Singapore for shaft and flying sports.

A recognized sports organization will help you get help from the appropriate authorities, including Sport Singapore and other organizations, as well as corporate sponsorships and money.

Additionally, it may provide the game a chance to gain additional support for its inclusion in extracurricular activities in schools.

Ng claimed that people in Singapore tend to start playing underwater sport responsibly once they are older. In contrast, runners in other countries are exposed to the game younger.

The stigma surrounding the game is another impediment that the community must conquer. It has long been associated with entertainment and leagues despite being extremely sport and talented.

” It is challenging from a business perspective because people do n’t know what we do, or they have certain misconceptions”, Mak said.

KETTLEBELL SPORT

The kettlebell is yet another segment activity that produces competitive athletes – this time on the ground.

The goal is to raise a kettlebell as many times as possible in a given period of time.

Singaporean Dexter Tay took home two medals at next week’s World Kettlebell Championships.

The game is seeing some grip, with about 400 people training with kettlebells now, up about 30 per share over the past month, he noted.

But knowledge is also lacking, the 42-year-old said, adding there is misunderstanding that mastering the techniques is very difficult for ordinary citizens.

“( Kettlebell ) is done in only a few gyms here in Singapore, there are n’t a lot of eyeballs on the sport”, he said. ” There has n’t been a lot of opportunity to showcase what the sport is about”, he said.

” Education in kettlebell activity has helped me greatly, not just from a natural power perspective… it also helped me develop my intellectual power, toughness and endurance”.

In the past three years, the community has organised three nationwide competitions, with another upcoming next month. They claimed that the sport is gaining more participants each edition.

Tay hopes that Maeder’s success at the Olympics will have a positive impact on non-mainstream sports and result in more funding and facilities to develop their elite squads.

It emphasizes the necessity of looking at niche sports, and it may be worth it for the authorities to consider donating some resources to promote niche sports and their athletes who have the potential to excel on the global stage. There are hidden talents all over”, he said. &nbsp,

Edwin Tong, the minister for culture, community, and youth, stated last week that the government would support athletes who exhibit promise regardless of whether they compete in popular or less well-known sports. &nbsp,

In his speech on Sunday ( Aug 18 ), Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong added that the country will do more to advance sports culture.

” I’m pleased that more young Singaporeans with the talent in sports are taking it seriously and excelling at the highest levels. Mindsets are changing”, Mr Wong added.

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In US lockstep, Philippines ‘de-risking’ from China – Asia Times

After a number of incidents extremely bringing the two rival claims into an armed conflict, the Philippines and China have rekindled their hostility in the South China Sea. But the delicate water truce masks a more basic change in Philippine-China relations.

In line with US-led coupling and in a flimsy attempt to prevent a discord with the Eastern superpower, the Ferdinand Marcos Jr. administration is slowly but actively “de-risking” relations with China.

On the one hand, Asian intelligence companies are monitoring and retaliating against China’s alleged spy and malign influence procedures in the country. On another level, Manila wants to reduce its dependence on Chinese mining projects and manifest itself as an alternative provider of precious metal to the West, especially for the EV power industry.

Following the revelation of past Bamban governor Alice Guo, a Foreign national who ensnared the Spanish political elite and established a successful business relationship with suspected Chinese legal organizations, efforts to combat malicious Chinese influence reached fever pitch.

In the latest attempt to track down the controversial former mayor, who is now at large, the Bureau of Internal Revenue ( BIR ) has filed a tax evasion complaint against her and several key accomplices, including Jack Uy, a businessman who purchased Guo’s Baofu Land Development Incorporated shares, and Rachelle Joan Malonzo Carreon, Baofu’s corporate secretary. &nbsp,

Spanish authorities are also looking into whether the criminal ex-mayor had spying plans because a Taiwanese online blackjack under her control was supposedly responsible for the cyber-sabotage of state websites in addition to admitted torture and kidnapping of foreign nationals.

However, Filipino intelligence solutions have been tracing less well-known but more well-known priorities who allegedly participated in vile control functions in the Southeast Asian nation.

Zhang” Steve” Song, Manila’s commission commander of the Shanghai Wenhui Daily, who previously held a similar position in Washington, DC, is at the center of fresh investigations.

The&nbsp, Wenhui Daily&nbsp, or&nbsp, Wenhui Bao&nbsp, is owned by the Shanghai United Media Group, a company overseen by the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s ) committee in the mega-city.

The US has classified the publication’s girl paper, the Shanghai United Media Group ‘s&nbsp, Jiefang Daily, as a “foreign objective”, especially an extension of Beijing’s outside control procedure.

Zhang has been identified as an agent of China’s Ministry of State Security ( MSS) in collaboration with key allies. According to Philippine regulators, the alleged journalist-cum-spy slowly “established a major community in several corporate institutions” over the past three years.

Zhang allegedly had regular meetings with leading Chinese officials in Manila as well as key characters in the Spanish government and media, especially before and after every significant event in the South China Sea, despite not being registered with the Philippines ‘ International Press Center and having had little journalism result in recent years.

Legislators have been asked to consider new counter-influence operations laws as a result of the bizarre case of Zhang, and they have also been asked to consider whether the Chinese-owned social media app TikTok poses any issues with national security.

In addition, Philippine authorities are grappling with allegedly China-backed disinformation operations, including “deep fakes” targeting senior officials, including Marcos Jr., who has stepped up defense ties with Western allies, including the US and Japan.

Earlier this year, authorities flagged a deepfake audio&nbsp, portraying&nbsp, Marcos Jr as warmongering against China amid rising tensions in the South China Sea. In addition, China-friendly vloggers affiliated with the Duterte dynasty have attempted to spread extensive fakes to support allegations of drug abuse by the incumbent. &nbsp,

A network of coordinated inauthentic accounts across X and YouTube, according to a special report from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute ( ASPI), “very likely linked to the Chinese government”

Although this is n’t the first time China has been linked to disinformation in the Philippines, most recently by backing the pro-Beijing Dutertes in the country’s elections in advance of the 2022 elections, ASPI claims that the new strategy “promotes the dissemination of content created by domestic actors, demonstrating a novel sophistication and insight into the Philippines ‘ information environment.”

The Philippines ‘ more assertive stance against China has unnerved domestic businessmen, most notably the powerful Chinese-Filipino business community.

Last year, Teresita Sy-Coson, the matriarch of the country’s biggest conglomerate, publicly warned of dire economic consequences if ongoing tensions spill over into bilateral trade and investment ties.

At a major public event last year, SM Investments Corp vice chairperson Teresita Sy-Coson told reporters,” China is very close to us, we cannot be too antagonistic.”

” Even though we know what is happening, I guess we have to do it through a more peaceful negotiation”, she added, reflecting growing anxiety among the country’s biggest business groups, which are deeply dependent on cheap imports from mainland China.

Her misgivings, which other Chinese-Filipino business groups echoed, largely fell on deaf ears. If anything, the Marcos Jr administration has sought to reduce the country’s economic dependence on China, in line with Western decoupling moves.

Manila, for instance, has withdrawn from Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative ( BRI ) in response to disagreements over a number of stalled, big-ticket infrastructure projects that Chinese companies have promised but failed to deliver.

Marcos Jr.’s administration anticipates that strategic allies will assist in closing the investment gap. Earlier this year, Marcos Jr attended the first-ever Japan-Philippine-US ( JAPHUS) summit at the White House, where the three allies vowed to enhance strategic economic cooperation.

Accordingly, Japan and the US are expected to assist in establishing a new US$ 100 billion investment corridor in industrialized regions of the Philippines, with a focus on high-end and strategically important manufacturing.

In particular, Manila seems keen on joining the” chip wars” against China by positioning itself as a new semiconductor production hub, leveraging its proximity to neighboring Taiwan, a semiconductor-producing superpower.

The resource-rich Philippines is also positioning itself as a key supplier of strategic minerals, most notably nickel. The Philippines is actively courting Western and Japanese investments in its own thriving nickel mining sector as Chinese companies dominate EV battery supply chains from Africa to Indonesia.

The Philippines is attempting to address uncompetitive production costs and forge more investment tie-ups with the US and other like-minded countries in resource processing as the second-largest producer in the world.

In the end, the Southeast Asian nation wants to become a major hub for the production of EV batteries and to help the West break away from China’s influence in the crucial next-generation market.

” There is room now for the Philippines to be a significant player for batteries”, Ceferino S Rodolfo, under-secretary of the Department of Trade and Industry, told the Financial Times, underscoring growing interest from American, European, South Korean and Japanese companies.

” It’s a race between China and the] West]..]and we have ] a really strong argument to go for a non-Chinese investor so that we can be the supplier of non-Indonesian, non-Chinese nickel”, he added.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Richeydarian

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US full steam ahead with drone-based carrier warfare – Asia Times

With the innovative inclusion of a helicopter command centre aboard its supercarriers, the US is taking full advantage of the future of naval war.

The USS George H. W. Bush ( CVN-77 ), a US Navy supercarrier, recently received a dedicated Unmanned Air Warfare Center ( UAWC), making it the first ship of its kind to incorporate such a facility. The report was made available this month in The War Zone.

According to the War Zone report, the UAWC serves as the administrative hub for innovative unmanned aircraft, including the MQ-25 Stingray ship drones and upcoming cooperative fight aircraft (CCA ).

It points out that this development is a part of the US Navy’s wider strategy to integrate UAWCs across all Nimitz and Ford-class companies. The US Navy and Lockheed Martin’s Skunk Works collaborated to create the Unmanned Carrier Aviation Mission Control System ( UMCS) MD-5E Ground Control Station ( GCS), according to the report.

The MQ-25’s main objective is to increase the carrier’s weather aircraft’s achieve while reducing the need for F/A-18E/F Super Hornet combatants for refueling tasks, according to The War Zone.

The report mentions that, despite delays and cost overruns since Boeing’s 2018 Carrier-Based Aerial-Refueling System ( CBARS ) program win, the US Navy aims for a 2026 initial operational capability with plans to acquire 76 MQ-25 drones.

It states that USS George H. W. Bush will begin conducting at-sea operations on the UAWC’s operational networks in the first quarter of 2012, following on from the USS Abraham Lincoln ( CVN-72 ).

The integration of unmanned aerial systems ( UAS ) on ships like the USS George H. W. Bush highlights the growing need for advanced aerial refueling capabilities, particularly for the Indo-Pacific’s extreme distances and given the region’s changing threats.

A large distance in the Indo-Pacific makes flying fuel skills important, according to Asia Times in February 2023. Geographical length problems may reduce a stronger government over a more potent opponent who fights on its home carpet.

The US struggles to win wars far from its territories and faces challenges from anti-access/area denial ( A2/AD ) capabilities. Aerial refueling is becoming more important for conquering operating difficulties, which are made worse by the spread of large distances and the rise in force projection in the Indo-Pacific.

The US flying tanker ship, which is aging, needs more space to compete with Russia and China. It is crucial for keeping combat aviation in the Indo-Pacific place operating from remote air bases. Aerial recharging makes combat missions reach more than 8, 000 kilometers and necessitates fighter escorts to safeguard the large and fragile ship aircraft.

Making it difficult for regular flying tankers to work close to China’s coast, China has developed long-range air-to-air missiles like the PL-17 that may reach flying tankers at standoff ranges.

So, stealthy, small, unmanned aerial ships can fly close to numerous civilian and military airfields and close to densely defended areas of the sky.

The MQ-25 Stingray is set to take over cargo operations from the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, freeing up Super Hornet trip time. By increasing the aeroplane range and load to run in and reach China’s A2/AD bubbles, this is a part of a wider plan to increase the effectiveness of US airpower in the Pacific.

A stealthy, unmanned aerial tanker could complement the US ‘ upcoming airpower systems, such as the Next Generation Air Dominance ( NGAD ) 6th-generation fighter and B-21 Raider stealth bomber, by refueling them for extended missions.

In new discussions, attention has been drawn on implementing CCAs as a crucial step in protecting air superiority from advanced threats, building on the already proper emphasis on aerial refueling capabilities.

Mark Gunzinger and Lawrence Stutzriem make a point in a Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies report from February 2024 that the US needs to acquire CCAs to protect its air quality from innovative challenges like China.

Gunzinger and Lawrence advocate for a combined fleet of manned and uncrewed aircraft, harnessing recent developments in freedom and AI to successfully work in tense situations. They highlight the potential of CCA to act as power bonuses, enhancing the mortality, endurance and power of air supremacy operations.

They suggest that carrier-based CCAs may destroy attack heat defenses and offer a cost-effective way to increase the US’s atmosphere fight capabilities.

They urge immediate action to incorporate CCAs into the US Air Force’s force design, stressing that the current, aging aircraft fleet is insufficient to stop the People’s Liberation Army’s ( PLA ) rapid modernization.

Gunzinger and Lawrence point out the importance of a sensible approach to modernizing air war, underscoring the need for a healthy approach to 5th and 6th-generation soldiers rather than replacing them.

The US Navy’s wider perspective for uncrewed plane, which includes the agency’s plan to unmanage a sizable portion of its provider air wings, is a further boost to this push for CCAs.

In April 2023, The War Zone reported that the US Navy is steering its future carrier air wings to comprise 60 % uncrewed aircraft, as Rear Admiral Andrew” Bucket” Loiselle revealed at a recent Sea-Air-Space conference.

This tactical choice aligns with the wider NGAD programme, which places a premium on innovative drones and crewed secrecy combat jets of the 6th generation. It claims that integrating the MD-5 UMCS on three providers will give the company the opportunity to have control over any UAS purchases.

According to the War Zone report, the US Navy and Air Force work closely together to ensure common control of their CCAs. It mentions that the MQ-25 Stingray, with its ISR capabilities, is set to increase operational freedom by enabling soft power move between assets of both military branches.

The War Zone information that this change is a proper choice in light of the nature of warfare, which calls for a new perspective on carrier strike group performance because of longer ranges and disputed spaces.

China is also expanding its maritime capabilities as the US Navy transitions toward a future dominated by unmanned aircraft, as evidenced by the start of the first dedicated helicopter aircraft carrier ever.

In May 2024, Asia Times reported that China had launched the country’s first dedicated helicopter aircraft carrier, a strategic shift that could drastically affect the Indo-Pacific’s naval power relationships.

This innovative vessel, built at the Jiangsu Dayang Marine shipyard on the Yangtze River, is designed to operate cost-effectively with unmanned aerial vehicles ( UAVs ) in potential conflict scenarios, including those involving the US.

The company’s design is smaller, with a sailboat hull and a small trip deck for big fixed-wing UAVs. By building high-tech target barges and drone motherships, China has used this new ship to simulate American maritime capabilities.

The introduction of China’s aircraft carrier coincides with the growing use of robots in marine combat, which offer a cost-effective option for powerful projection and significant capabilities at a fraction of the price of conventional carriers.

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Yoon’s Korea unification vision: liberation, not engagement – Asia Times

Yoon Suk Yeol, president of South Korea, delivered a drastically different view of the Korean peninsula’s unified government in his Liberation Day statement on August 15, an annual holiday that commemorates the end of Japanese colonial rule over the Korean Peninsula.

In his&nbsp, talk, President Yoon framed integration as completing the unfinished work of independence and the glory of “freedom” over the North Korean program.

The freezing kingdom of the North, where people are denied freedom and suffer from poverty and starvation, needs to be given more space, Yoon said. Just when a united, free, and democratic country that is proudly owned by the people of Korea is established across the whole island will we eventually experience complete freedom.

His perspective blatantly rejects the idea of integration through a continuous process of inclusion and broad cross-border assistance as well as the legitimacy of the” Democratic People’s Republic of Korea” ( as the state is actually known ).

It’s a strategy that was reportedly embodied in the liberal Sunshine Policy of the later President Kim Dae-jung but also largely embraced by traditional heirs, such as Park Geun-hye in her essence 2014&nbsp, speech&nbsp, on unity.

However, Yoon’s conversation occurred amid heightened inter-Korean tensions, growing domestic politics and Chinese actions that risk diplomatic doubt.

Shifting views of unity

Yoon made a number of suggestions to accomplish this objective, including the creation of a fresh inter-Korean working group to discuss issues ranging from economical participation to disaster relief.

However, his speech’s main points were efforts to actively promote human rights in the North, advance the flow of information within the sealed community, and help those who have emigrated to the South.

The goal is to gain help in the North for what amounts to, though it is not explicitly stated, de facto government change. ” They may become strong, friendly makes for a freedom-based unification if more North Koreans realize that unity through independence is the only way to improve their lives and are convinced that a consolidated Republic of Korea may embrace them,” he said.

Yoon’s unity policy is a response to, and possibly unfortunately a mirror of, the similarly remarkable change in the North Vietnamese regime’s strategy.

In a&nbsp, speech&nbsp, to the decision Workers ‘ Party of Korea in late December, Kim Jong Un declared a “new walk on north-south connections and the unification plan”. South Korea was now to be regarded as a “hostile” and “belligerent” position under the control of the United States.

All recommendations to quiet unification were removed, and Kim commanded the North Korean military to “prepare to subdue the entire territory of the south.”

There has been an upsurge in strong language and military buildup directed at the South since Kim’s policy change. The North Koreans have conducted a series of short-range nuclear weapon checks and before this month&nbsp, announced&nbsp, the distribution of 250 nuclear-capable projectile missiles to frontline products along the border with the South.

partisanship in the days leading up to Liberation Day

Yoon’s address had a decidedly partisan tone as well. He assailed “pseudo-intellectuals” and others who circulate “fake news” to “undermine free societies”, labeling them as “anti-freedom, anti-unification forces”.

The unprecedented decision of the opposition parties and organizations representing the descendants of anti-Japanese “freedom fighters” such as the Heritage of Korean Independence to hold separate ceremonies was evidence of the increasingly polarized atmosphere in South Korea.

In keeping with the spirit of the Korean independence movement’s struggle against Japanese colonial rule, Liberation Day has traditionally been a national unity moment. The opposition parties’ and their allies ‘ boycotts of Yoon’s speech were intended to counteract Japanese claims that the government had attempted to defy the course of resistance and support Japanese colonial revisionism.

The&nbsp, controversy&nbsp, over the Korean government’s support of the Japanese application for World Heritage Site status for the Sado gold mines, where Korean forced labor was employed during the war, has fed this mood.

The government’s appointment of figures associated with the” New Right,” an intellectual movement that has provided an alternative view of Korea-Japan history, also led to the government’s decision to boycott the official ceremony. Kim Hyoung-suk has been appointed president of the Independence Hall of Korea, a significant museum dedicated to this resistance.

According to Heritage of Korean Independence leader Lee Jong-chan, who explained the group’s decision to hold their own separate ceremony, “our society has recently been thrown into confusion by widespread vulgar historical attitudes that are tainted by a pro-Japanese view of history and distortions of the truth.” ” We could n’t just stand by and watch this historical regression and disparagement”.

Simmering Korea-Japan tensions

Other than mentioning that the day marked the end of Imperial Japan’s rule and drawing comparisons between Korea’s economic accomplishments and those of Japan, Yoon’s Liberation Day speech was also notable for its almost complete absence of any references to Japan.

Yoon addressed the improvement of relations with Japan in his  speech  last year, including the strengthening of trilateral security cooperation with the United States and Japan.

Why did Japan leave this year’s Liberation Day speech, perhaps as a nod to the opposition’s use of anti-Japanese issues or as an indirect acknowledgement of the two countries ‘ ongoing tensions over wartime and colonial history, is unclear.

For Japan, August 15 is also an important historical moment, one that marks its surrender and the end of the war. In his&nbsp, speech&nbsp, to commemorate the anniversary of defeat, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida pledged to maintain Japan’s pacifist resolve to “never again repeat the devastation of war”.

He made note of the three million Japanese casualties in the conflict, including those who died at the Battle of Okinawa, during bombings in Japan, and most recently during the atomic bombings. He consciously avoided mentioning Japanese aggression in all of Asia, though.

At the same time, three members of Kishida’s cabinet, including Defense Minister Minoru Kihara, &nbsp, visited&nbsp, the controversial Yasukuni Shrine to honor Japan’s war dead. The contrast between how Korea and Japan represent this historical moment serves as a reminder of how the past continues to influence the present.

Never underestimate the potential risks of a new conflict on the Korean Peninsula. President Yoon and North Korean leader Kim’s conflicting ideas of unification are likely to cause even worse inter-Korean tensions.

The escalating partisan conflict in South Korea further complicates any efforts to reshape relations on the Korean Peninsula in the face of global uncertainty.

Daniel Sneider is a non-resident distinguished fellow at the Korea Economic Institute of America and a lecturer on East Asian and international policy at Stanford University. The views expressed here are the author’s alone.

This article was originally published&nbsp, by KEI’s The Peninsula. It is republished with permission.

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