Pheu Thai Party moves forward without Gen Prawit

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Palang Pracharath Party leader Gen Prawit Wongsuwon, in blue, is accompanied by party heavyweights as they make their way to a meeting at the party’s headquarters on Aug 29 after it was dropped from the Pheu Thai-led coalition government. (Photo: Varuth Hirunyatheb)
Palang Pracharath Party leader Gen Prawit Wongsuwon, in blue, is accompanied by party heavyweights as they make their way to a meeting at the party’s headquarters on Aug 29 after it was dropped from the Pheu Thai-led coalition government. (Photo: Varuth Hirunyatheb)

The Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) under the leadership of Gen Prawit Wongsuwon is poised to become a formidable opposition force after being dropped from the Pheu Thai-led government, according to political pundits.

Simmering tensions between the two parties finally boiled over last week when Pheu Thai, with the support of its MPs, resolved to exclude the PPRP from the new cabinet line-up.

According to Pheu Thai secretary-general Sorawong Thienthong, the party MPs felt the PPRP leader did not value the Pheu Thai Party, judging from his absence from a prime ministerial vote — not once but twice.

Gen Prawit did not attend the parliamentary sessions to vote for Srettha Thavisin to be prime minister a year ago and for party leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra to succeed Mr Srettha after his removal from office by the Constitutional Court recently.

After ditching the PPRP, the core government coalition party invited its long-time rival, the Democrat Party, to join the new coalition government. The move is widely seen as the ending of the long-standing rivalry between Pheu Thai and Democrats. It has also pushed Gen Prawit, who controls 19 PPRP MPs, into the opposition.

Friend or foe

Deputy PPRP leader Chaiwut Thanakamanusorn said the administration of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra should brace for intense scrutiny from the opposition party, a role it intends to fulfil. “We’ll diligently do our job. As a matter of fact, we have always scrutinised government work. However, this time round we won’t pull any punches,” he said.

Mr Chaiwut said while the government will have no problem pushing its major policies as it has a strong majority in the House, it may encounter some difficulties along the way.

Some policies, including the casino-entertainment complex scheme, are controversial. There is also growing pressure to address economic problems and alleged interference by a party outsider, a reference to Thaksin Shinawatra, the premier’s father.

Moreover, the Pheu Thai Party’s strategy of poaching MPs from other parties, and failing to follow the country’s political party system, could potentially backfire, cause a rift within the coalition and weaken it.

“The way [Pheu Thai] manoeuvres in politics could lead to internal conflicts. Demands will be made but [the demands] may not be met because [the party doesn’t] follow the political party system. When interests are no longer aligned, disputes will follow. Political instability will make it harder to work,” Mr Chaiwut said.

The coalition government is made up of 141 MPs from Pheu Thai, 70 from Bhumjaithai, 36 from United Thai Nation, 25 from the Democrats, 10 from Charthaipattana, three from Chart Pattana and 21 from a faction within the PPRP led by Capt Thamanat Prompow.

Pheu Thai is not concerned about Gen Prawit’s political clout or charisma as some might argue, according to the PPRP deputy leader.

Instead, the ruling party seeks politicians who can respond to its agenda, and the PPRP happens to have a faction of MPs who previously worked with Pheu Thai and were offered cabinet seats in return, he said.

He was referring to the one headed by Capt Thamanat, the PPRP secretary-general who is known to have maintained a relationship with Thaksin.

During the transition, Capt Thamanat declared his independence from Gen Prawit while expressing support for the Pheu Thai-led coalition. Mr Chaiwut said the PPRP had understood the cabinet quota agreement made when the party supported Mr Srettha would remain intact even after he was removed from office, but apparently, the party was mistaken.

The PPRP did not announce its departure from the government despite knowing it would be excluded from the cabinet because it wanted to be on the record that Pheu Thai was the one who broke the agreement, he said.

“We’re not the ones who made the changes. It’s all about politics where [personal] interests are used as bait. Some people know they aren’t qualified to serve in the cabinet and instead opt for a nominee, which I believe is wrong,” he said.

Mr Chaiwut dismissed Pheu Thai’s claim that it excluded the PPRP because of Gen Prawit’s no-show in the votes for Pheu Thai’s prime ministerial candidates.

The PPRP has 40 MPs and all except Gen Prawit turned up to support Mr Srettha and Ms Paetongtarn, he said, noting he did not think Gen Prawit’s absence could affect the outcome of the vote.

Chaiwut: 'We won't pull any punches'

Chaiwut: ‘We won’t pull any punches’

Play it safe

Without the PPRP, the government can still drive its agenda in parliament due to its strong majority in the House, but Gen Prawit should not be taken lightly, according to a Pheu Thai source.

The government needs to tread carefully, the source said. The PPRP leader has been in politics for decades, the source said, suggesting he was an influential figure capable of stirring up trouble and making things difficult for the Pheu Thai-led government under Ms Paetongtarn’s leadership.

The party was fully aware of Gen Prawit’s vast political clout and perceived influence over key independent public agencies, but it has no choice but to exclude him.

It is widely thought that Gen Prawit is the mastermind behind the 40-odd senators who filed a petition against Mr Srettha over the appointment of ex-convict Pichit Chuenban as a PM’s Office minister.

To steer clear of legal troubles, the government needs to be “extra cautious” with every decision, and appointing PPRP secretary-general Thamanat, who has alienated himself from the party, also involves risks, according to the source.

The ruling party anticipates that Ms Paetongtarn will face multiple petitions against her and the government cannot afford to take any chances.

“The government should be able to deliver its policy if it manages to avoid legal pitfalls. We want to complete the rest of the term, so we must be careful with the appointments,” said the source.

However, he admitted Thaksin’s activities can also spell trouble for the government, especially with his political rivals looking for any missteps.

Pheu Thai list-MP Prayut Siripanich said the government must be thorough in its work following the Constitutional Court’s ruling in Mr Srettha’s case, which has set a precedent regarding ethics under Section 160 of the constitution.

Mr Prayut said thorough background checks on candidates for cabinet posts are necessary to avoid any legal issues that could land the new government in trouble.

Prayut: Govt must avoid any legal issues

Prayut: Govt must avoid any legal issues

Grace period

Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at the King Prajadhipok’s Institute, said Gen Prawit does not pose a major risk for the government at the moment.

Ms Paetongtarn is expected to be given some time to work and she is likely to see out her term in office if her government can deliver results, he said, pointing to Thaksin’s active engagement in politics.

However, if she is unable to make significant changes, it is possible she could meet the same fate as Mr Srettha, said Mr Stithorn.

The analyst said the government is expected to deliver results by the first or second quarter of next year, and its performance will be judged by the party’s approval rating and economic conditions. He added that if there is no improvement within a year, changes to the government may be anticipated.

“Pheu Thai’s decision [to exclude Gen Prawit] makes it clear the party isn’t afraid of Gen Prawit or his ‘tool’. [Pheu Thai members] know they have a grace period,” he said. Mr Stithorn said he foresees no imminent conflicts within the coalition because the partners are deemed satisfied with their cabinet quotas.

The Democrat Party under Chalermchai Sri-on operates similarly to the Bhumjaithai Party, while Capt Thamanat is expected to fall in line as long as he maintains a role in the government even through a proxy, he said.

“With over 300 House seats, the government has stability. A problem may arise in case there is no progress in its work, and changes are required. Some individuals might not want to give up their cabinet portfolios,” he said.

The only issue that could bring down the government is its failure to meet public expectations, which were raised following Thaksin’s presentation of his national vision at a recent dinner talk. “If the government falls short, it will be seen as a failure. In my view, this is the government’s Achilles’ heel. The government showcases its visions, and people expect it to achieve them,” he said.

Stithorn: Partners are 'satisfied' with quotas

Stithorn: Partners are ‘satisfied’ with quotas

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Pheu Thai moves forward without Gen Prawit

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In: South-East Asia
Chaiwut: 'We won't pull any punches'
Chaiwut: ‘We won’t pull any punches’

The Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) under the leadership of Gen Prawit Wongsuwon is poised to become a formidable opposition force after being dropped from the Pheu Thai-led government, according to political pundits.

Simmering tensions between the two parties finally boiled over last week when Pheu Thai, with the support of its MPs, resolved to exclude the PPRP from the new cabinet line-up.

According to Pheu Thai secretary-general Sorawong Thienthong, the party MPs felt the PPRP leader did not value the Pheu Thai Party, judging from his absence from a prime ministerial vote — not once but twice.

Gen Prawit did not attend the parliamentary sessions to vote for Srettha Thavisin to be prime minister a year ago and for party leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra to succeed Mr Srettha after his removal from office by the Constitutional Court recently.

After ditching the PPRP, the core government coalition party invited its long-time rival, the Democrat Party, to join the new coalition government. The move is widely seen as the ending of the long-standing rivalry between Pheu Thai and Democrats. It has also pushed Gen Prawit, who controls 19 PPRP MPs, into the opposition.

Friend or foe

Deputy PPRP leader Chaiwut Thanakamanusorn said the administration of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra should brace for intense scrutiny from the opposition party, a role it intends to fulfil. “We’ll diligently do our job. As a matter of fact, we have always scrutinised government work. However, this time round we won’t pull any punches,” he said.

Mr Chaiwut said while the government will have no problem pushing its major policies as it has a strong majority in the House, it may encounter some difficulties along the way.

Some policies, including the casino-entertainment complex scheme, are controversial. There is also growing pressure to address economic problems and alleged interference by a party outsider, a reference to Thaksin Shinawatra, the premier’s father.

Moreover, the Pheu Thai Party’s strategy of poaching MPs from other parties, and failing to follow the country’s political party system, could potentially backfire, cause a rift within the coalition and weaken it.

“The way [Pheu Thai] manoeuvres in politics could lead to internal conflicts. Demands will be made but [the demands] may not be met because [the party doesn’t] follow the political party system. When interests are no longer aligned, disputes will follow. Political instability will make it harder to work,” Mr Chaiwut said.

The coalition government is made up of 141 MPs from Pheu Thai, 70 from Bhumjaithai, 36 from United Thai Nation, 25 from the Democrats, 10 from Charthaipattana, three from Chart Pattana and 21 from a faction within the PPRP led by Capt Thamanat Prompow.

Pheu Thai is not concerned about Gen Prawit’s political clout or charisma as some might argue, according to the PPRP deputy leader.

Instead, the ruling party seeks politicians who can respond to its agenda, and the PPRP happens to have a faction of MPs who previously worked with Pheu Thai and were offered cabinet seats in return, he said.

He was referring to the one headed by Capt Thamanat, the PPRP secretary-general who is known to have maintained a relationship with Thaksin.

During the transition, Capt Thamanat declared his independence from Gen Prawit while expressing support for the Pheu Thai-led coalition. Mr Chaiwut said the PPRP had understood the cabinet quota agreement made when the party supported Mr Srettha would remain intact even after he was removed from office, but apparently, the party was mistaken.

The PPRP did not announce its departure from the government despite knowing it would be excluded from the cabinet because it wanted to be on the record that Pheu Thai was the one who broke the agreement, he said.

“We’re not the ones who made the changes. It’s all about politics where [personal] interests are used as bait. Some people know they aren’t qualified to serve in the cabinet and instead opt for a nominee, which I believe is wrong,” he said.

Mr Chaiwut dismissed Pheu Thai’s claim that it excluded the PPRP because of Gen Prawit’s no-show in the votes for Pheu Thai’s prime ministerial candidates.

The PPRP has 40 MPs and all except Gen Prawit turned up to support Mr Srettha and Ms Paetongtarn, he said, noting he did not think Gen Prawit’s absence could affect the outcome of the vote.

Play it safe

Without the PPRP, the government can still drive its agenda in parliament due to its strong majority in the House, but Gen Prawit should not be taken lightly, according to a Pheu Thai source.

The government needs to tread carefully, the source said. The PPRP leader has been in politics for decades, the source said, suggesting he was an influential figure capable of stirring up trouble and making things difficult for the Pheu Thai-led government under Ms Paetongtarn’s leadership.

The party was fully aware of Gen Prawit’s vast political clout and perceived influence over key independent public agencies, but it has no choice but to exclude him.

It is widely thought that Gen Prawit is the mastermind behind the 40-odd senators who filed a petition against Mr Srettha over the appointment of ex-convict Pichit Chuenban as a PM’s Office minister.

To steer clear of legal troubles, the government needs to be “extra cautious” with every decision, and appointing PPRP secretary-general Thamanat, who has alienated himself from the party, also involves risks, according to the source.

The ruling party anticipates that Ms Paetongtarn will face multiple petitions against her and the government cannot afford to take any chances.

“The government should be able to deliver its policy if it manages to avoid legal pitfalls. We want to complete the rest of the term, so we must be careful with the appointments,” said the source.

However, he admitted Thaksin’s activities can also spell trouble for the government, especially with his political rivals looking for any missteps.

Pheu Thai list-MP Prayut Siripanich said the government must be thorough in its work following the Constitutional Court’s ruling in Mr Srettha’s case, which has set a precedent regarding ethics under Section 160 of the constitution.

Mr Prayut said thorough background checks on candidates for cabinet posts are necessary to avoid any legal issues that could land the new government in trouble.

Grace period

Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at the King Prajadhipok’s Institute, said Gen Prawit does not pose a major risk for the government at the moment.

Ms Paetongtarn is expected to be given some time to work and she is likely to see out her term in office if her government can deliver results, he said, pointing to Thaksin’s active engagement in politics.

However, if she is unable to make significant changes, it is possible she could meet the same fate as Mr Srettha, said Mr Stithorn.

The analyst said the government is expected to deliver results by the first or second quarter of next year, and its performance will be judged by the party’s approval rating and economic conditions. He added that if there is no improvement within a year, changes to the government may be anticipated.

“Pheu Thai’s decision [to exclude Gen Prawit] makes it clear the party isn’t afraid of Gen Prawit or his ‘tool’. [Pheu Thai members] know they have a grace period,” he said. Mr Stithorn said he foresees no imminent conflicts within the coalition because the partners are deemed satisfied with their cabinet quotas.

The Democrat Party under Chalermchai Sri-on operates similarly to the Bhumjaithai Party, while Capt Thamanat is expected to fall in line as long as he maintains a role in the government even through a proxy, he said.

“With over 300 House seats, the government has stability. A problem may arise in case there is no progress in its work, and changes are required. Some individuals might not want to give up their cabinet portfolios,” he said.

The only issue that could bring down the government is its failure to meet public expectations, which were raised following Thaksin’s presentation of his national vision at a recent dinner talk. “If the government falls short, it will be seen as a failure. In my view, this is the government’s Achilles’ heel. The government showcases its visions, and people expect it to achieve them,” he said.

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Vontobel names Clarabelle Ho as Asia head of intermediary clients | FinanceAsia

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In: Asia, Finance, South-East Asia

Vontobel, an international investment firm, has appointed Clarabelle Ho as head of intermediary clients Asia.

Ho (pictured) has moved from BlackRock, where she was responsible for intermediary distribution as part of the Asia Pacific (Apac) wealth team, based in Singapore. She started at Vontobel on Friday, August 16, and will continue to be based in Singapore reporting to Wei Kai Lee, head of institutional clients Apac at Vontobel, FinanceAsia understands. Ho replaces Benny Gay who previously did the same role, and left the firm in November 2023, according to a Vontobel spokesperson. 

Ho has more than 15 years of experience dedicated to private and retail bank wholesale fund distribution in Southeast Asia (SEA) and the broader Asian region. According to the media release, she is responsible for developing the firm’s distribution business by establishing and supporting partnerships with major financial intermediaries at Vontobel.

“We are pleased to welcome Clarabelle to Vontobel,” Singapore-based Lee said in the release. “Her established track record, client-focused mindset and industry knowledge will strengthen our engagement with key stakeholders and sharpen our commitment to delivering innovative investment solutions that meet investors’ evolving needs.” 

Vontobel is an international investment management firm with Swiss roots, providing investment and advice to private and institutional clients. The firm has been in Apac since 2008, and have teams in Hong Kong, Singapore, Tokyo, and Sydney.

Headquartered in Zurich, Vontobel has offices in 28 locations world-wide. Vontobel Holding’s shares are listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange, with the majority owned by the founding family. As of June 30, 2024, Vontobel held approximately CHF225.9 billion ($259.3 billion) of total client assets.

For more FA people moves click here. 


¬ Haymarket Media Limited. All rights reserved.

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Singapore dollar could weaken in coming months, analysts say

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In: South-East Asia

SINGAPORE: According to experts, the relative strength of the Singapore dollar perhaps decline over the upcoming months as a result of the US economy’s smooth landing.

The main reason the Singaporean dollar recently reached 10-year highs in relation to the dollar was the US dollar’s weakness, they continued.

The Singapore dollar recently hit levels last seen in 2014 against the US dollar, according to Bloomberg ( Aug 23 ). It has traded near 1.30 against the US dollars this year, compared with 1.337 at the start of August and 1.358 in first July.

If financial data indicates that the US can prevent a crisis, the US dollar was reestablish some power, said Mr Sim Moh Siong, a dollar strategist at Bank of Singapore.

” We are still in the non-recession camp”, he said. We believe that the market has gotten a long way forward of itself when it is predicting a rapid price increase.

Higher-yielding Asian economies will increase, according to Mr. Peter Chia, a mature FX strategist at UOB.

UOB anticipates that the Monetary Authority of Singapore ( MAS ) will moderately ease the appreciation of the Singapore dollar’s nominal effective exchange rate ( S$ NEER ) in October.

” The SGD’s power relative to local currencies may comfortable in the approaching times”, Mr Chia said.

Charge CUT EXPECTATIONS

According to Mr. Manpreet Gill, Standard Chartered’s chief investment officer for Africa, Middle East, and Europe, the US dollar fell as interest rates were priced in response to subpar information.

He added that Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium&nbsp, past week&nbsp, were friendly of a price cut.

According to Mr. Gill,” the latest move has probably been very much centered on shifting rate expectations for the USD alone.”

A momentary decline below 1.30 for USD/SGD would not be shocking in the near future, according to Mr. Chia of UOB,” Gauging from the speed.”

There are only three sessions left in 2024, according to Mr. Sim of the Bank of Singapore, and the market is presently anticipating rate reductions of 100 base items for the remainder of the year.

The business anticipates a larger-than-normal slice of 50 base items at one of the meetings this year because the US Federal Reserve typically moves 25 basis points at once.

” What’s changed is that the businesses are now anticipating a much more aggressive pace of easing because of US crisis issues,” said Mr. Sim.

He claimed that the market’s fear was heightened by the labor market record, and that market expectations may be influenced by the upcoming report, which is scheduled for early September.

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Bangladesh needs a Truth Commission – Asia Times

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In: Asia

The sufferers of Aynaghar, a secret detention facility run by the Bangladeshi military intelligence branch and where they were held in horrifying conditions, have only recently begun to share their ordeals. The survivors, some held for over a century, hail from different age groups as well as political and social background.

After centuries of Sheikh Hasina’s now-toppled autocratic management, Bangladesh’s victims of enforced disappearances deserve justice. Their family, who are also survivors of those who disappeared, deserve to know the whereabouts of their loved ones for peace of mind and spirit.

However, righteousness is required for those who have been subject to human rights violations by the government over the past 20 years as well as for those who have been victims of forced disappearances.

Rarely does a nation recover from stress without feeling like it was all there was. In other words, the people of Bangladesh deserve to treat and to recover they require the fact, justice and peace. To achieve this, Bangladesh needs a facts fee.

Truth income” provide to address the numerous unanswered questions raised by enforced kidnappings, illegal executions, and other offences committed” over time, according to the International Justice Resource Center. &nbsp,

According to Priscilla B Hayner, an expert on reality profits, they generally have four elements: 1.) They always have some kind of authority, giving them access to information and protection when investigating sensitive issues like enforced disappearances, 2 ) they try to present a comprehensive picture of international human rights violations over time rather than just one violation, 3 ) while they operate for a short while, they deliver a report summarizing their findings, and 4 ) they always have some kind of authority which gives them access to information and protection when investigating sensitive issues like enforced disappearances. &nbsp,

Truth profits are not a recent development in Asia. &nbsp, In 2010, the Philippine Truth Commission was created to address fraud. &nbsp,

For Bangladesh, a truth commission can be established under the National Human Rights Commission ( NHRC ), which has demanded full disclosure of enforced disappearances.

In an ideal creation, it should be established with separate and global lawyers specializing in enforced abductions. Apparently, Bangladesh is ready to assist with this vital truth-seeking endeavor thanks to numerous international attorneys. &nbsp,

Bangladesh may draw on some examples. The Government of National Unity established the South African Truth and Reconciliation Commission ( TRC ) to address the country’s traumatized experience under apartheid.

At least 137 cases resulting from the TRC method have been registered for trial and research with West African regulators for atrocities committed during the apartheid era. &nbsp,

Through the 2016 peace agreement between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia ( FARC-EP), which included provisions for investigating alleged enforced disappearances in the 1970s and 1980s, Colombia’s Truth Commission was established.

A Bangladesh Truth Commission could make recommendations for the prosecution of those responsible for enforced disappearances and whether they should be brought to justice in a local court or before the International Crimes Tribunals.

Similar to Colombia, where a transitional justice court was established to handle the killings of hundreds of thousands of people, the commission could establish its own court to prosecute the perpetrators. In those proceedings, a military general and ten others admitted to crimes against humanity. &nbsp,

Nearby, Argentina’s truth commission investigated more than 30, 000 forced disappearances committed during the so-called Dirty War. &nbsp, The Argentina Truth Commission’s report opened the door to the Trial of the Juntas, which successfully prosecuted perpetrators of war crimes.

Thanks to Bangladesh’s presence at the United Nations, the interim government that has replaced Hasina’s toppled regime can request various countries with relevant experience to inform Bangladesh’s truth commission.

The victims of enforced disappearances, including families and sometimes whole communities, often deserve reparations, which is recognized under international law.

To be sure, they should be adequate, effective, prompt and proportional to the gravity of the violations and harm suffered. In Bangladesh, compensation should be provided for any economic damage, loss of earnings, loss of economic opportunities and moral damages. Social service as well as medical and psychological care should be provided for victims and their families.

A policy of non-repetition can and should also be part of reparations. Truth commissions and the Inter-American Court of Human Rights generally advise non-repetition as part of reparation in Colombia and many other Latin American nations where ensnared people have been victims of arbitrary disappearances.

Bangladesh needs to ratify the International Convention for the Protection of All Persons from Enforced Disappearances to demonstrate that it will never commit such heinous crimes and to open the door for domestic law to recognize enforced disappearances as a crime.

Some have argued for the establishment of an UN-backed ad hoc court. While this is nice in theory, such configurations do n’t always deliver the desired results. These tribunals are expensive and demand a lot of funding and other assistance from the international community.

The international community might be reluctant to support the establishment of another expensive UN-backed court for Bangladesh given that the International Criminal Court and UN are currently facing budget problems.

The total bill for the UN-backed Khmer Rouge Tribunal to address Cambodia’s genocide was over US$ 330 million. Many perpetrators of crimes were acquitted, while in the end, only three were convicted. Many victims and family members of victims, not to mention the perpetrators, passed away before justice was achieved.

It’s doubtful that Bangladesh’s victims are willing to wait so long for justice for crimes that have so far been completely unreported and hidden. &nbsp,

Iffat Rahman is an Oxford University-trained Canadian lawyer. She previously served in a defense capacity at the International Criminal Court. She has also worked for the Khmer Rouge Tribunal in Cambodia, the UN International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda, and the International Criminal Tribunal for former Yugoslavian. She also held a short-term position with UNHCR Malaysia. &nbsp,

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Avalanche alert: China may dump dollars when Fed eases rates – Asia Times

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In: Asia

Since the mid-1990s, the US Federal Reserve has had a somewhat shaky past in Asia.

Between 1994 and 1995, the US central bank past tightened with the same intensity as it did recently. The 1997-98 Eastern problems, which resulted from a runaway dollar rally destabilizing the region’s currency pegs, was caused by the short-term rate increase in 12 months.

Since then, the 2008″ Lehman impact” that the Fed was slow to see coming and the 2013 “taper kid” have overwhelmingly rocked Asian areas.

Asia also bore the brunt of the Fed’s 2022-2023 tightening period. Epic ripples of capital scurrying toward US assets as the currency’s surge in response to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s price hikes resulted in spectacular waves of funds.

However, could the Fed’s rate reductions cause a different sort of tumult in Asia? If analyst Stephen Jen is correct, it certainly was.

As Team Powell undoes its most recent price hike campaign, the CEO of Eurizon SLJ Capital anticipates Chinese companies to chuck about US$ 1 trillion in dollar-denominated assets.

In truth, Jen predicts something of an “avalanche” as a strengthening dollar sends tides of repatriating money China’s manner, upending dollar industry in the process.

Granted, Jen has warned of this dollar-dumping active for a couple of years today. In June 2023, for instance, Jen argued that” Taiwanese corporates continue to hoard cash. Foreign companies ‘ total investment is increasing as a whole. The economy’s higher have perhaps at present seem enticing to Chinese entities, but this construction is ultimately unpredictable”.

The scenario Jen has been advising about is “prospective rate cuts by the Fed and/or an economic reacceleration in China could lead to a precipitous fall” in the dollar-yuan rate” as corporate treasurers in China scramble to sell the dollars they do n’t need to have.”

Since the Covid-19 pandemic, mainland companies have gobbled up more than$ 2 trillion of overseas investment, a bet on higher-yielding assets than punters often find in China. As Powell begins ratcheting levels lower, those assets may grow less appealing.

Up to US$ 1 trillion will be on the move as a significant number of island companies decide to return funds, according to Jen. Interestingly, Jen points out that his guestimate may be” conservative”.

Then, as Powell declares” the time has come for legislation to change” toward less restrictive problems, Chinese selling dangers may be upon us. It’s worth noting, Jen adds, that companies swapping out of dollar assets could see the yuan&nbsp, strengthening by up to 10 %.

Additionally, it’s important to point out that the resettlement fluid that is developing throughout China could reach businesses in Asia.

This is n’t a risk many have on their Bingo cards. Powell’s vow on August 23 to” we will do everything we can to help a strong work industry as we make more progress toward price balance” has frequently boosted Asia’s markets.

The same with Powell’s confidence that the US can achieve a so-called” soft landing”, a remarkably rare occurrence. There is good reason to believe that the economy will return to 2 % inflation while maintaining a robust labor market, Jen tells Bloomberg.

Asian bourses were cheering when they learned that Powell “has rung the bell for the start of the cutting cycle,” according to Seema Shah, principal global strategist at Principal Asset Management.

The real gains could be in Asia’s “laggard” markets, notes Chetan Seth, strategist at Nomura Holdings. We believe that the relatively safe harbor is likely to be markets and sectors that are uncrowded ( parts of ASEAN ) and more domestically driven markets ( India/ASEAN), as Seth writes in a recent note. Investors in this situation must be much more cautious and reduce their investment in Asian cyclical markets, like those in North Asia.

Yet other risks abound. Consider Jen to be one of the economists who worry that central banks from Washington to Tokyo have recently injected too much stimulus into the global financial system, causing inflation.

As Powell said in July:” Go too soon, and you undermine progress on inflation. Wait too long or do n’t go fast enough, and you put at risk the recovery. And so, we have to balance those two things. It’s a rough balance”.

Problem is that the costs of a policy error are rapidly rising due to the US’s high and rising national debt, which has recently surpassed US$ 35 trillion. Just a few months before Americans vote on November 5 to choose a new president, this milestone was reached.

Democratic nominee Kamala Harris provides details on spending plans that will add trillions of dollars to the public debt in one corner. Donald Trump, too. Trump makes hints that removing the Fed’s role as independent arbitrator of US interest rates, in addition to another multi-trillion tax cut that is currently being funded by the government.

Trump browbeat Powell into cutting rates in 2019 when the US did n’t need it during his first term as president, from 2017 to 2021. Trump also threatened to fire Powell, a previously unheard of threat from a US leader.

In a second term, the” Project 2025″ scheme that Republican activists cooked up for a Trump 2.0 White House could see the Fed’s power curtailed.

In such an uncertain world, though, the Fed pivoting toward monetary accommodation is n’t necessarily straightforward. The view driving this Asian stock rally is “broadly correct”, at least in the medium-term, says Tan Kai Xian, economist at Gavekal Research.

” Rate cuts will reverse the recent contraction in US liquidity, which will support US aggregate demand, after a lag”, Tan notes. ” But in the shorter term, rate cuts will squeeze corporates ‘ interest income, and therefore their profits. This will disproportionately affect large corporations with large cash reserves, which may result in their relative underperformance.

The effect, Tan notes,” will be bigger than commonly believed. Even though the path was indirect, thanks to businesses selling products to households in receipt of stimulus checks, handouts during Covid allowed US companies to build up sizable cash reserves.

When the Fed cuts interest rates, interest income will fall. At least before the lagged boost to aggregate demand kicks in, Tan says,” The near-term drag on corporate profits could discourage capital spending, which would have a dampening effect on US economic growth.” ” In the short term, then, rate cuts could weigh on large-cap US equities relative to bonds”.

Given that the US inflation rate is continuing to decline, Jen believes Powell may raise rates more forcefully than many investors anticipate. The global reserve currency may be under increased downward pressure due to Washington’s dual budget and current account deficits. That, Jen argues, could see the yuan appreciating more than many investors expect.

The yuan’s gains could be even bigger if the People’s Bank of China avoids moves to offset dollar liquidity. Odds are that the yuan will start to rise once the Fed starts cutting interest rates as soon as September 18? If the Fed makes any hints about further easing, the pressure will increase.

This could cause tension between PBOC Governor Pan&nbsp, Gongsheng and Xi’s economic team. Beijing has been surprisingly tolerant of a rising yuan over the past year despite the fact that global export markets became more competitive.

Xi has been working to gain more confidence in the yuan and stop large property developers from defaulting on their foreign debts. A skyrocketing yuan that nullifies growth prospects may be even worse unwelcome.

The clouds on China’s economic horizon can be seen in this week’s$ 55 billion stock crash&nbsp, in Temu-owner PDD Holdings. It’s a sign that China’s growth engines are still cooling despite Beijing’s effort to boost household demand.

Additionally, the external sector does n’t appear particularly promising. This week, Canada slapped a 100 % tariff on China-made electric vehicle imports, following the lead of the US and European Union.

Additionally, it is unlikely that the upcoming US election cycle will offer Team Xi a break. Both presidential candidates, Trump and Harris, are trying to outdo each other with anti-China rhetoric and trade policies.

All of this explains why China’s foreign exchange watchdog has been paying close attention to dizzying yuan-dollar movements. And why things might turn out differently than many investment funds currently believe.

” The pressure will be there” on the yuan to rally, Jen tells Bloomberg. We are talking about$ 1 trillion worth of fast money that could be involved in such a potential stampede if we just assume half of this amount is the money that is “footloose” and easily provoked by changing market conditions and policies.

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Lighthouse Canton boosts North Asia and SEA wealth management teams | FinanceAsia

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Singapore-headquartered Lighthouse Canton has appointed Stella Lau as managing director, wealth advisory where she will be strengthening the company’s client base and leading the growth strategy for North Asia.

A market veteran, Lau has over two decades of private banking and leadership experience. She was previously Greater China market group head at Deutsche Bank and has held similar roles, managing and expanding North Asia market teams at JP Morgan, UBS, and Credit Suisse.

Lau’s team will provide co wealth solutions to ultra-high-net-worth clients, families, and institutions.

In addition, Charlene Lin has been promoted to managing director, strategic growth – North Asia and Southeast Asia (SEA). A founding member of Lighthouse Canton, Lin has been pivotal in establishing the company’s presence across Asia since its inception in 2014, a statement said. 

Shilpi Chowdhary, Lighthouse Canton’s group CEO, said in a statement: “Under the leadership of Stella and Charlene, I’m confident that we have a formidable team, deeply committed to delivering excellence and innovation. Their extensive experience and expertise are invaluable assets to our company, and I’m certain their teams will be instrumental in advancing our growth strategy.”

Rapid growth

In H1 2024, Lighthouse Canton reported a 89% increase in revenue compared to the same period last year to assets under management (AUM) of $3.7 billion.

The firm’s AUM is expected to cross $4 billion by the end of 2024 with growth in markets including Singapore, the Middle East, and India. Additionally, it has seen a 23% increase in hires since the start of the year and is continuing to make strategic appointments across business lines.

Lighthouse Canton employs more than 160 professionals across its offices in Singapore (based in Collyer Quay – pictured), Dubai, India, and London.

The firm offers wealth and asset management services to ultra-high-net-worth individuals, families, family offices, private accredited investors, and institutional investors.

For more FinanceAsia people moves click here. 


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Rail concession buyback idea gains support

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Congestion sales may be responsible for money, but how strict is it?

PUBLISHED: 27 Aug 2024 at 17: 26

A sign promoting the 20-baht maximum fare is seen in front of Red Line commuter train at the Krung Thep Aphiwat Central Terminal in Bangkok. (Photo: Pattarapong Chatpattarasill)
In front of the Red Line passenger train at Bangkok’s Krung Thep Aphiwat Central Terminal, a signal promoting the 20-baht optimum fare can be seen. ( Photo: Pattarapong Chatpattarasill )

Former deputy governor of Bangkok says he backs the proposal to have the government repurchase agreements for electric trains in order to keep charges at 20 baht per journey that former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has suggested.

Suriya Jungrungreangkit, the commission’s secretary of transportation, previously said he concurred with Thaksin’s suggestion because it was in line with the agency’s policy of capting train service fares at that level. Samart Ratchapolsitte responded with the statement on his Facebook page on Tuesday.

The transportation and finance ministries do collaborate under the proposed plan to buy up concessions from private companies before hiring them to run the services until the original agreement terms are up.

Mr. Suriya previously stated that the government wanted to implement a 20-baht cover on all Greater Bangkok rail lines by March 2026. The State Railway of Thailand and the Mass Rapid Transit Authority ( MRT ) are currently the only companies that pay the 20-baht price cap, currently only for the Purple and Red lines.

Tickets on the two most widely used mass-transit devices vary by range, ranging from 17 to 43 baht on another MRT roads and 15 to 62 ringgit on the BTS Skytrain program.

Mr. Samart remarked that the purchase of up rail concessions is not a recent concept. Five years after the Skytrain’s opening, the government considered repurchasing Bangkok Transit System Plc ( BTS )’s first concession in early 2004 in order to keep fares at 15 baht.

However, the plan not moved forward despite there only being one range in operation at the time: the Green Line comprising the Mor Chit-On Nut and National Stadium-Saphan Taksin areas.

One way to reduce energy train prices is to “buy up the concessions,” Mr. Samart wrote on Twitter.

” Now, there are eight energy train ranges in service, covering a total length of 274 miles. Where will the funds be located? So the concept for finding the money came from the collection of fees in the business district, also known as a congestion charge or congestion pricing, in which case it was collected.

Singapore was the first state to introduce a congestion fee, called the Area Licensing Scheme, in 1975. At that time, the city-state did not have an electronic mass transit company, but it did include effective government cars.

There were concerns when the fresh service first launched because it had an impact on how people used exclusive vehicles. Yet, due to the strict enforcement of the program, everyone had to fall in line.

Police in Thailand is another issue, however.

Thailand has examined the application of traffic congestion cost measures numerous times, but it has never put them into practice. Now we will examine it once. But, I do have some concerns about the use of visitors congestion costs”, said Mr Samart.

Second, there must be electric carriages in the area where the congestion charges are to be collected, he said. He added that efficient public transportation that could get people to and from teach channels is also required.

Additionally, there must be a parking lot close to the location where the gridlock costs are collected. The government should decide whether the fees may be waived for local residents and businesspeople in the area, as well as other details like the time and date of the toll collection, the passenger counted in the vehicle, the collection method, and the particular penalties.

Lastly, Mr. Samart questioned whether the government would encourage businesses to invest in energy train services in the future and what would happen if the state were unable to recoup the concessions for the trains.

In a final point, he brought up the idea of the state relinquishing road concessions in order to lower toll costs.

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Alibaba’s listing upgrade the lift Hong Kong needs – Asia Times

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On Wednesday ( August 28 ), Alaba Group Holding will complete its long-awaited transition from secondary status on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to a primary listing. The walk might be just as significant for the area as the e-commerce giant itself.

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited is about to end a fourth that was exhausting. Stock investing and initial public offerings restored the bourse’s reputation as a global economic hub, and the April-June time was its best on history. The globe’s fourth-largest stock market saw net profits surge 9 % to HK$ 3.16 billion ( US$ 405 million ), or HK$ 2.49 per share.

The decision by Alibaba may cause an extra backseat. Typically speaking, one firm seldom, if ever, makes or breaks an exchange. However, Alibaba’s size and significance for the island’s tech-economy tale could result in billions of dollars in new investments that will likely be filtered into the country’s wider Hong Kong market.

Alibaba can touch titanically large flows of coast money thanks to the transition to main listing in Hong Kong, which wraps up a two-year process. Alibaba’s stock today qualify to add Stock Connect, a system that connects Hong Kong’s change to areas in Shanghai and Shenzhen.

That will make buying Alibaba shares easier than ever for buyers in the island, opening the door to capital inflows of up to US$ 20 billion into the business over the next six weeks, according to estimates. And maybe boosting the general market’s mood.

According to Marvin Chen, an analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence,” We believe the addition of Alibaba to the Stock Connect may have a positive impact on the stock and may help regulate mood given that it is a family name among coast buyers.” He expects island assets of the stock to climb by double-digit ratios, broadening benefits in tech-sector shares.

Alibaba, of course, is even keeping its key listing in New York. This could be its own advantage. Hong Kong shares frequently react muted to gains made on the island. Alibaba’s hold in the US market could offer Hong Kong more inside if New York’s bulls work continues.

Though based in Hangzhou, China, the firm Jack Ma co-founded first listed on the New York Stock Exchange in 2014, raising nearly US$ 22 billion.

At the time, it was the largest US Investor always. Additionally, it established Xi Jinping’s Communist Party as a significant leader, making China a worthy target for international attention.

In 2019, Alibaba opened a secondary list in Hong Kong, raising an extra US$ 13 billion. Afterwards, in 2022, Alibaba’s table applied to transfer its Hong Kong stock to key status. Last month, shareholders eventually approved the pivot.

The prospect is as great as the chance are at play. In 2023, China’s biggest e-commerce person had one of the most turbulent times in its 25-year story. Even by the norms of 2020, the year the government of President Xi repressed internet usage.

In March 2023, Alibaba split into six units to adjust and concentrate its main businesses: home e-tailing, global e-commerce, cloud computing, native services, logistics, and media and entertainment.

At the time, the cash-cow home e-commerce class, which includes the Taobao market, aimed to be a wholly-owned system. The five people are run by various CEOs who each have the authority to pursue their own public ads.

The market is the best litmus test, according to former Alaba CEO Daniel Zhang, who remarked 17 times ago:” Every business team and company may pursue independent charity and Investments when they are available.

The enterprise was bigger than Alibaba, though. As Xi’s regulators attempt to mitigate risks and halt monopolistic tendencies among tech giants, China Inc. did a case study of sorts.

Given that Xi and Premier Li Qiang want private companies to be the ones who create the most jobs and boost a troubled economy, it’s quite a balancing act.

Ma’s Alibaba was an obvious place to start. It has long been a global representation of China’s tech goals and a symptom of Beijing’s tolerance for tech billionaires spreading their wings.

Nowhere did that tension come across more clearly than in October 2020. After Ma criticized China’s financial regulators for stifling innovation, authorities canceled a$ 35 billion IPO planned by Ma’s fintech unit Ant Group.

Alibaba’s efforts to remake itself remain a work in progress. Last year, the e-commerce titan disappointed investors as profits dropped and revenue growth was a weaker-than-expected 4 % in the second quarter.

The company’s performance highlights two significant issues that Zhang, who took over as CEO in September, and Chairman Joseph Tsai and CEO Eddie Wu have yet to resolve. One is intensifying competition from rivals such as JD.com, Temu-owner PDD Holdings and others.

” Competition will remain a key issue for Alibaba”, says Shawn Yang, an analyst at Arete Research. As Alibaba began testing a new advertising tool this past quarter, some investors may have high hopes for the increase in the company’s take rate. However, the results ‘ actual figures indicate that it may take longer for that effort to pay off.

The other is a lethargic Chinese economy that Team Xi has yet to revive, which is hampered by weak consumption and made worse by a cratering property sector. Chinese consumers deposited less money in the bank in July but also did n’t spend more. Some people assume that 2024 will be a bad year for economic growth.

” The year-on-year decrease in excess savings growth has not yet translated into increased consumption”, says Tommy Xie, head of Greater China research at OCBC Bank. This may be related to households shifting their deposits to wealth management products and paying off their loans early.

That deleveraging matters to Alibaba’s bottom line. Team Ma, after all, created an amalgam of Amazon, PayPal, eBay, travel agencies, brokerage services and real estate, thrusting his interests into virtually every sector imaginable to reach China’s 1 billion-plus internet users.

This arguably makes Alibaba’s quarterly performance a better gauge of China’s economic health than gross domestic product ( GDP ) reports. Nothing else would increase Alibaba’s stock more quickly than Xi’s reform team’s increase in consumer spending. &nbsp,

There is still a level of capital outflow pressure, according to Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING Bank, “weak growth is likely to lead to more PBOC easing.”

By the most general sense, China’s budget expenditures are shrinking at a time when local government land sales are declining at a rate unprecedented. Many economists believe that this will put more pressure on Xi and Li to take bolder steps to stabilize China’s US$ 17 trillion economy.

The Third Plenum extravaganza’s policies, as anticipated, will prioritize boosting consumer spending. So far, such moves have been in short supply.

Zhang Ming, an economist, recommends that Beijing should increase investment and promote consumer spending by double or triple the value of this year’s special sovereign bonds, reaching 3 trillion yuan ( US$ 420 billion ).

According to Zhang, deputy director of the Institute of Finance &amp, Banking at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government think tank, “if we adhere to the central budget deficit level of 3 % no matter what it takes, fiscal spending will inevitably contract and become pro-cyclical.”

Upright Asset Management’s chairman, Chenjie Liu, points out that “raising the fiscal deficit ratio is an appropriate and effective policy tool.”

Economist Lisheng Wang of Goldman Sachs adds that” we see significant downward pressure for fiscal funding this year from falling tax and land sales revenue, besides the multi-year” deleveraging by state-owned companies known as local government financing vehicles, or LGFVs.” The hope is to reduce China’s exposure to off-balance-sheet debt risks.

If China’s 5 % growth goal is met, it will significantly ease Alibaba’s path to 2025 and entice more investors to buy Alibaba shares.

As of now, analyst Laura Wang at Morgan Stanley says” we expect some inflows but not major”, at about US$ 12 billion in the first six months after inclusion, or about 7 % of Alibaba’s total outstanding shares.

The positive news is that Alibaba’s significant investment in cloud computing has succeeded. The business experienced a modest 5.9 % growth as a result of CEO Wu’s strategic change in cloud computing and artificial intelligence. That offset Alibaba’s main platforms Taobao and Tmall, which saw a 1 % decline in revenue.

Any progress Beijing makes in accelerating economic growth would be greatly benefited by Alibaba’s unique position on the frontlines of China’s GDP zigs and zags, but it would have a big impact on its appeal among international investors. Perhaps even for Hong Kong’s appeal, too.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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