Albanese-Prabowo can show there’s a better middle power way – Asia Times

Just one day after taking the oath of office for a second word, Asian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese flew to meet with his Indian counterpart, President Prabowo Subianto, in a dizzying move.

In prepared comment, Albanese referred to Indonesia as an “indispensable companion” and urged Prabowo to follow through on a deal reached last year to strengthen security ties.

The three areas covered by that agreement are maritime security, terrorism, and crisis response. According to Prabowo’s state, Albanese’s visit came amid reports that Russia requested a military base be located in Papua, which is located about 1,200 kilometers from Darwin, Australia’s north military center.

Coming of the Indo-Pacific is in a delicate harmony. Rising geopolitical conflicts are compelled by the Trump administration’s reshaping of the prevailing business and geo-economic orders, which are causing countries like Indonesia and Australia to rethink their strategic and economic associations.

However, communications and action plans are insufficient when taken into account the seriousness and necessity of the current issues. To create a more resilient and safe provincial architecture, the two neighbors require concrete breakthroughs to tack on a tighter bilateral knot.

There is plenty of reasons for Australia and Indonesia to collaborate more.

Indonesia is under increasing economic pressure, as evidenced by a declining GDP, a strengthening rupiah, and wild venom on the stock market, including a new single-day decline that required trading to stop. Trump’s proposed but presently halted 32 % tariffs on Indian goods have raised concerns about the economy. &nbsp,

Australia’s economy is also impacted by trade war-induced monetary turbulence. Given the rising risk of geopolitical volatility, it’s a growing concern that its close ties with China, particularly in natural resources and manufacturing, are of growing concern. These financial ripples are being felt throughout the area, having an impact on Australia’s main trade partners, such as Japan, South Korea, and India.

The Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement ( IA-CEPA ) serves as a foundation and has sparked some optimism in the business communitiess of Indonesia and Australia, but its promise is still unfulfilled.

Indonesia, which stood at US$ 550 million in 2023, continues to suffer from administrative clumps and bureaucratic red tape. To get past those obstacles, it takes bold steps to harmonize standards, form joint task forces to handle disputes, and use economic inclusion as a crutch rather than a policy checkbox.

Although local balance is essential, economic integration may be a prerequisite for it. However, over the years, Indonesia and Australia have followed various corporate axes.

Australia’s participation in AUKUS, the Quad, and Five Eye highlights its American ally, while Indonesia prioritizes its non-aligned foreign policy by placing ASEAN’s importance on the diplomacy map first.

Australia’s decision to purchase nuclear-powered boats from the US and UK under the AUKUS brand has raised questions about local stability, which highlights the proper differences between the two countries.

Russia, which has provided Indonesia with weapons over the years, felt the need to ask and perhaps obtain focusing right because of that difference.

However, despite these variations, diplomatic security cooperation has gained a lot of support. A shared commitment to local security, sea safety, and counterterrorism was demonstrated by the joint military exercise 2024 Keris Woomera.

However, trust-building requires more than occasional training. Using ASEAN platforms like the East Asia Summit and institutionalizing annual protection dialogues could transform military cooperation into proper synergy.

Energy and meal safety are two sections where Indonesia and Australia are unwaveringly interested in cooperating. Indonesia aims to transition to renewable energy resources in order to achieve net-zero pollution by 2060. The state is committed to reducing its rely on fossil fuels, despite the fact that fuel is still important to Indonesia’s business.

A major shift toward solar, wind, biofuel, geothermal, and electricity is anticipated in the 2021-2030 energy plan. However, Indonesia’s state energy firm, PLN, is working diligently to maintain financial viability and provide reliability before retiring coal-fired energy plants as planned.

Australia might play a significant role in this power change. A$ 200 million financing facility between PLN and Export Finance Australia supports renewable investments, while the Indonesia-Australian Energy Dialogue facilitates cooperation in green energy.

Expanding cooperation in the fields of mine products, technology, power storage, and green hydrogen might all contribute to Indonesia’s long-term energy resilience.

A precise thermal bridge connecting the two countries may also work. A high-voltage transfer line that runs from Australia’s Northern Territory to Java-Bali, the center of Indonesia’s people and economy, could transform both markets.

A solar connection could ultimately power thousands of Indonesian households, replacing fuel and fostering cross-border development, according to early assessments, drawing on tasks like Australia-Asia Power Link.

Bali could become a local green and electric hub powered by the Outback sunrays rather than just for vacationing Australians. This is more than just system; it is a declaration that renewables can be a shared goal, never a zero-sum game.

Another possible consolidation stage is food security. Indonesia’s efforts to secure food safety experience significant difficulties in juggling climate pledges and agricultural policies.

The president’s food house program aims to lower imports but runs the risk of deforestation and peatland degradation. In addition, biodiesel mandates ( B35 and B40 ) put additional pressure on farmland. Indonesia is working on carbon market initiatives, including meal growth, property restoration, and climate change mitigation.

Making efforts like Indonesia’s Free Nutritious Meal system crucial, vulnerable areas continue to struggle with food availability. However, its viability depends on supply chain performance, management, and infrastructure. Regional differences in the availability of food and reliance on imported grain are still significant issues.

Through initiatives like PRISMA supporting local producers, Australia contributes to Indonesia’s meal safety through trade, agricultural expense, and technology transfer.

Greater cooperation might be centered on increased water management techniques, precision farming practices, and the creation of green supply chains. For enhancing endurance, opportunities in Indonesia’s food equipment, such as cold storage infrastructure and logistics networks, are necessary.

Additionally, boosting Indonesian espresso, cacao, and exotic fruit exports to Australia along with Australia’s wheat, meat, and dairy exports to Indonesia would encourage bilateral trade growth, which may result in a more healthy and mutually beneficial trade relationship.

Indonesia’s involvement in American agribusiness, possibly through Prabowo’s recently established sovereign wealth fund, Danantara, may improve food security and lower transfer fees.

The issues transcend food and fuel. A unified Indonesia-Australia agreement would provide the Indo-Pacific with a fresh perspective on middle-power participation in a time of extremes.

A second way that prioritizes local agency is created by Jakarta’s ASEAN leadership and Canberra’s American heritage, creating a unique hybridity.

This is more of a proper necessity than a optimistic partnership, according to Prabowo and Albanese. If Indonesia-Australian joint ventures in renewable energy, crops, and food systems are pursued with fervor, they could demonstrate to the world that local resilience is built through interdependence and innovation rather than militarization or protectionism.

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Singapore Marathon winner Geoffrey Yegon caught doping, denied US,000 prize

After being found cheating, Kenyan Geoffrey Yegon did not finish the highly sought-after US$ 45, 000 dollars prize at the Standard Chartered Singapore Marathon (SCSM) in December, making him the first to do so. &nbsp,

In response to CNA’s questions, an SCSM spokesperson on Friday ( May 16 ) stated that Yegon had a banned substance in his system following a post-race test on December 1 and was subsequently banned from the sport for two years. &nbsp,

Yegon was removed from occasion results after World Athletics informed the SCSM crew, with all sportsmen moving up one position, according to the spokesperson. &nbsp,

The race administrator continued that the US$ 45, 000 prize money was never distributed until World Athletics had finalized the anti-doping results, as per occurrence protocol, and that” this procedure was followed at the 2024 SCSM.” &nbsp,

Check finished the race in 2: 16: 06, hours ahead of Abel Sikowo, who placed second overall in Uganda, in 2: 16: 12. &nbsp,

Sikowo is then credited with winning the workout in a research conducted on the SCSM site, despite SCSM having never publicly announced this. &nbsp,

The team expressed disappointment at learning about this circumstance, is a strong supporter of World Athletics ‘ position on cheating, and will continue to work with the SCSM to improve. &nbsp,

The spokesperson added that the competition is officiated by professional officials and that Singapore Athletics has sanctioned the occasion. &nbsp,

Additionally, it engaged Anti-Doping Singapore, the country’s leading anti-doping organization, to carry out required testing in collaboration with World Athletics and the Athletics Integrity System.

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China’s strategic pivot paying off in South Caucasus – Asia Times

After Azerbaijan’s restoration of its full geographical authority, the Western powers have generally failed to effectively engage with it. Filling the gap, China has been deepening its influence in the country while extending its approach into Georgia and yet Armenia.

Beijing has increased opportunities in the country’s modern equipment and has been funding energy projects. In this crucial juncture area, nations like Turkey, Kazakhstan, and the Gulf claims have been putting their weight in the process.

American actors have only just begun to try to handle the results of their failure to adapt their local approaches after the 2020 Next Karabakh War.

In this regard, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev’s visit to Beijing on April 2025 marked a turning point for China’s relationship with the South Caucasus. This has now led to the signing of a comprehensive strategic partnership ( CSP), which is the highest level of bilateral cooperation in the Chinese diplomatic hierarchy.

This upgrade builds on momentum since 2022, when the two sides formalized a strategic partnership at a Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO ) summit. By 2024, bilateral trade had reached US$ 3.74 billion, up 20.7 % from the previous year, making China Azerbaijan’s fourth-largest trading partner.

The partnership, which has been elevated to a comprehensive position, shows how in line with Azerbaijan’s development programs, such as the” Silk Road Revival” and the 2030 Socio-Economic Development programs, is China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Beijing no more treats the South Caucasus as a silent hall but considers it an effective network in trans-Caspian and trans-Eurasian connectivity.

Aliyev and Xi Jinping’s joint statement emphasizes global cooperation in the fields of transportation and logistics, as well as automation, intellectual property, and aircraft.

Additionally, agreements address cooperative projects in the fields of metallurgy, automotive, and machinery. China will therefore enter key Georgian commercial sectors, complementing Baku’s drive to expand its economy beyond hydrocarbon fuels.

The West’s hesitant answer

China’s expansion in the South Caucasus was facilitated by the 2020 Minute Karabakh War’s strategic pump. After Azerbaijan’s victory over Armenia and the Russia-brokered ceasefire, the traditional Western-led peace process ( the OSCE Minsk Group ) was effectively sidelined.

Washington and Brussels attempted to resolve Armenia and Azerbaijan’s differences, which led to some fruitful achievement, but they failed to come up with a strong local vision at a time when the political landscape was changing.

Just in 2022 did the West begin to lose ground because of Russia’s redistribution of the South Caucasus. The European Union launched counseling summits in Brussels and deployed a border surveillance mission to Armenia in 2023 – which, rather than de-escalating tensions, has rarely had the same effect.

By 2023-2024, the United States had increased its focus, according to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who convened multilateral meetings, and appointed a special minister for the area. However, these initiatives frequently lag behind local developments.

Facing no like boundaries, China pressed forward with a trained financial plan that expanded its footprints through logistics, modern equipment and power financing.

As Yerevan’s disillusion with Moscow grew, the United States and France began to adopt a more pro-Armenian position. Social support increased, and dialogues of security assistance grew more lively. France became the largest arms dealer to Armenia as Russian sales almost collapsed.

The Biden administration declined to maintain the waiver for Section 907 of the US Freedom Support Act, which prohibits direct support to Azerbaijan. Any American leadership has done this for the first time in more than 20 years.

Just days before the end of the Trump administration, Biden’s Secretary of State Antony Blinken signed a US-Armenian corporate relationship contract with Yerevan’s Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan.

By 2025, the EU had begun revising the importance of the area, both as a source of energy and trade as well. Although funding for the South Caucasus Pipeline’s growth is still a mystery, Azerbaijan and its document from July 2022 aimed to increase its fuel exports to Europe by 2027.

The EU’s Global Gateway initiative today openly favors Middle Corridor growth, coordinating purchase across Central Asia. A Transport Corridor Alliance was established to support trans-Caspian routes at an EU-Central Asia summit in Samarkand in April 2024.

Although these initiatives are still in development, they indicate that South Caucasus will soon be recognized as a component of a wider Eurasian connectivity network. Still, the Western response remains fundamentally reactive.

The region is no longer dependent solely on Euro-Atlantic frameworks. The South Caucasus now has real alternatives and the means to exercise agency there because China offers extensive partnerships grounded in infrastructure, trade, and long-horizon investment.

Logistics and connectivity: the Middle Corridor in focus

China was historically cautious in the South Caucasus, interpreting it as Russia’s sphere of influence and favoring routes through Russia or Iran for its trade pacific with Europe. The original Belt and Road corridors did not even include the South Caucasus.

The twin shocks of the 2020 Second Karabakh War and especially the 2022 Russian war against Ukraine disrupted Russian transit routes and changed all that. Azerbaijan and its neighbors are now seen by Beijing as crucial components of an alternative East-West artery connecting China to Europe.

Aliyev has made it known that, after China, Azerbaijan is the second-largest investor in Belt and Road projects. Baku has spent enormously to upgrade ports, railways and highways to attract Belt and Road traffic.

China’s support for Azerbaijan as a crucial transit node linking China, Central Asia, and Europe confirms its intention to convert the Middle Corridor from a secondary fallback route to a primary conduit.

The Middle Corridor’s potential was previously hindered by shoddy infrastructure and increased competition from faster Russian rail lines. Before 2022, only 2-3 % of China-EU overland freight used the Middle Corridor.

However, this calculus was altered by the sanctions and instability brought on by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Kazakhstan saw a 63 % increase in freight along this route in 2023-2024 ( to 4.1 million tons ), and Azerbaijan handled 18.5 million tons of cargo, a 5.7 % increase.

In late 2023, the rail companies of Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Georgia formed a joint venture to integrate customs and digital tracking systems, with a view to cutting freight times between China and Europe.

Azerbaijan, for its part, upgraded the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway and increased the capacity of the new Port of Alat on the Caspian. Azerbaijan and China came to a consensus to simplify customs and finalize new road transportation agreements to advance direct trans-Caspian routes connecting China and Europe via Azerbaijan.

Shippers in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan project that Middle Corridor container volume will reach 96, 000 twenty-foot equivalent units ( TEUs, a standard measure equivalent to about 33 cubic meters ). Although the volume is modest compared to Northern Corridor levels still transiting Russia, this is a significant increase.

Energy and digital footprints: China’s techno-economic statecraft

China’s expanding influence in the South Caucasus is not limited to trains and ports. As they have already done in Central Asia, particularly in Azerbaijan and Georgia, digital infrastructure and energy financing are becoming important components of Beijing’s statecraft in the region. These industries serve as a gateway to local development needs while expanding China’s footprint.

In Azerbaijan, the new partnership prioritizes the digital economy and technology cooperation. Over the past ten years, Chinese telecom companies Huawei and ZTE have provided equipment for telecom networks in each of the three countries. The two cities have now agreed to support the “digital transformation of industry” and establish joint tech R&amp, D platforms.

Chinese soft power accompanies these tech investments. With Beijing’s assistance, a new Chinese language school has recently been established in Yerevan. Confucius Institutes are present in Baku and Tbilisi. Although not particularly large, these initiatives foster goodwill and familiarity with Chinese standards and technology.

In Georgia, a visa-free regime with China took effect in 2024, boosting tourism and business travel. Similar a regime is currently in place between China and Azerbaijan. Beijing has subtly been shaping the information environment in this regard, presenting itself as a new development partner for the Caucasus.

Chinese companies have stepped in alongside Middle Eastern investors to finance solar and wind projects. One example is the 100-megawatt ( MW) Gobustan solar plant, which is currently supported by China’s Universal Energy.

China is now promoting a” Global Clean Energy Partnership,” which aligns with Baku’s plans to develop large renewable energy projects in its sunny plains and windy Caspian coast, aimed at both domestic electricity consumption and future exports to European markets.

In Georgia, Chinese firms have bid on hydropower plant tenders and acquired shares in the Poti Free Industrial Zone, which could include oil storage facilities. Chinese miners and investors are active in the copper and metals industry in Armenia.

Armenia sends copper concentrate to China, and it has also given money to China for energy-saving items like solar panels and transformers. These moves ensure China has a stake in the Caucasus energy landscape.

Both China and Turkey want open, stable corridors. Kazakhstan and other Central Asian nations are also stepping up their involvement. Kazakhstan, in particular, is investing heavily to make the trans-Caspian link viable by financing port upgrades and purchasing new ferries.

The Gulf Arab states have come to represent yet another group of players. The United Arab Emirates ( UAE ) and Saudi Arabia also see the region as an extension of their own bid to be Eurasian hubs.

Dubai-based logistics company DP World has provided advice on Azerbaijan’s Alat Free Economic Zone, and businesses are reportedly looking into investing in South Caucasus infrastructure. ACWA Power in Saudi Arabia and Masdar in the UAE have signed significant agreements to build solar and wind farms in Azerbaijan’s liberated territories.

The South Caucasus gains agency

The South Caucasus is acquiring autonomous agency as a result of these trends as a whole. In particular, Azerbaijan has capitalized on its geographic position to increase its strategic significance.

Georgia, long a supporter of alternative corridors, signed a free trade agreement with China in 2017 and then, in 2023, surprised many by elevating relations with Beijing to a strategic partnership. After Georgia felt a little distaste for the West and was looking for new investors, Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili made the announcement during his visit to China.

Beijing’s interest is particularly strong in the long-planned deep-sea port on Georgia’s Black Sea coast, Anaklia. A Chinese state firm, China Harbor Engineering Company, has been contracted to develop the port, increasing Georgia’s dependence on Chinese capital.

Without significant investments, China’s economic footprint in Armenia continues to be thin. Aid is primarily symbolic, similar to a new TV tower studio and school buses.

The emerging geopolitical and geoeconomic network has made Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia more transactional in engaging all outside powers.

The signing of the comprehensive strategic partnership between Azerbaijan and China and President Aliyev’s visit to Beijing in 2025 demonstrate how Beijing’s expanding footprint is changing the region’s geopolitical compass.

This trend is reinforced by Turkey, Kazakhstan, and the Gulf states ‘ involvement. Their investments and ambitions further anchor the Caucasus as a hub of trans-Caspian and trans-regional networks.

Due to the West’s lagging response, particularly from the US and EU, China has so far left a more dynamic role to play. Western countries must step beyond outdated frameworks and offer their own tangible connectivity and investment initiatives if they want to maintain their standing in the South Caucasus.

The lesson of the past five years is that the South Caucasus will not remain a geopolitical backwater or mere bridge by default. It is actively transforming itself into a central node of Eurasian connectivity, in complex-system terms autopoietic. The Beijing trip of Aliyev is a clear example of that new reality.

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India, Pakistan and slumbering toward total world war – Asia Times

The new small but violent conflict between India and Pakistan was unexpected and demonstrated the extreme volatility of the historic moment.

The parallel wax of China’s Belt and Road Initiative ( BRI ) and BRICS ( the cooperation started by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa ) and the wane of the US global system started in the middle of some deep, long-term trends that are emerging.

Despite having competing goals with their members, the conflict did not affect the Tribal or BRICS. Pakistan is supported by Beijing and is a member of the BRI. India is a member of the BRICS, but its relationship with China is getting worse.

The two frequently nonsensical businesses successfully withstand these tensions, which is perhaps a sign of their weakness. They even develop into components of a fresh post-US-centered world order.

Their most lofty objectives, such as replacing dollar dominance with trans-European primary land routes or replacing dollar dominance, seem unlikely. However, they almost always add new signatories, which may be willing to look into new venues and savvy with the outdated ones.

The US has so far responded to its MAGA task. It blatantly asserts that the US is declining ( in other words, why would it try to make America Great Again? )? and doubts the country’s own multilateral institutions ( NATO, UN, EU, or halting aid to Ukraine )

It has raised tariffs, causing obstacles, perhaps even more so much more so against companions than against foes. It is possible that this change will restart the US producing motor and introduce a new movement to the world.

Beyond any objective, combining these two divergent trends forces nations to leave the grip of its main rival, China, the character of both BRI and BRICS, and into its own.

Popular memes in Beijing depict the small India-Pakistani conflict as a tactical defeat for Western and Chinese technologies. Indian Air Force’s French-made Rafale jet, particularly the novel Chinese J-20s, prevailing over Chinese fighters, which caused Indonesia to reevaluate its purchase of European aircraft.

Following the success of its DeepSeek AI, China’s technology miracle is its following. Foreign experts even claim that they prevailed in the tariff dispute with the US because they compelled Beijing to decrease its taxes and find a compromise before Beijing gave up.

Although the reality may be more complicated, this story could bolster Foreign confidence at a crucial moment and exacerbate US problems quickly.

a few steps

Maybe Beijing may earn its race in a few quick decisions that do address worldwide concerns about Beijing as America withdraws to rebuild itself. It might reveal social changes that will liberalize and reform the political system. The People’s Republic of China ( PRC ) would have a system of government similar to that of the developed nations.

It may offer Hong Kong total freedom to shape its property market, which could then compete with Wall Street. It might announce a strategy to open its markets and create the RMB entirely foldable within a few years, thereby establishing its position as the world’s largest market, dominating all consumption and production.

In exchange for closer political and military assistance, it was build new partnerships with relatives, trading territorial statements with India, Japan, Southeast Asian nations, and Taiwan. That would make it the magnetic hub of 60 % of the world’s population given that it is surrounded by a number of semi-hostile countries.

These actions, which will be put into practice over the coming years, was transform China into a formidable power. Nevertheless, they are laborious for domestic reasons.

The Communist Party may lose or need to reinvent its position of power as a result of social reform. Creating unique domestic and international dynamics may require raising workers ‘ wages, which would increase domestic consumption but lower exports. Foreign nationalism may be challenged by real-world partnerships with neighbors.

These are very challenging, and the Chinese leadership would probably avoid them, giving the US time to reevaluate and create a more successful global strategy.

Beijing also appears to lack an global air. After the conflict with Pakistan, it instead decided to patch up the sores by pouring water on them. A new record of Taiwanese names in Arunachal Pradesh and Zangnan in Chinese, an Indian condition, was added to the American border states. The message appears to be” India, you’ve been beaten—accept your lot and bow down.”

How India may respond to this message is uncertain, but will it take the neighbor’s influence or show greater defiance?

This communication might irritate India and the rest of the world. Beijing has given up an opportunity to bring India and a portion of the world closer by demonstrating an knowledge of their problems.

Beijing might consider it to be crucial to show its allies power more than failure. Although it may work within a standard Sinic historical context, it might not work well with nations with different mentalities.

China’s industrial and military development, combined with America’s attempts to destroy its own order, creates a never-before-seen level of global volatility that can start conflicts at any time.

International confusion

The UK, France, Germany, and Poland appear to be the only European nations that are willing to repair the damage the US is leaving behind.

In the event that the US nuclear umbrella is removed, French President Emmanuel Macron has indicated that he is willing to station French atomic weapons in other European countries. Turkey, which has the second-largest NATO military after the US, had become Europe’s most effective defense on the southern front, especially with regard to EU security.

The work don’t work as a substitute for American removal. The US’s mentoring to Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which housed and armed Hamas extremists, has sparked fresh controversies with Israel. Syria, which is currently under the control of Ankara, and Turkey and Israel continue to disagree.

NATO and the EU, which have usually supported Israel and are hesitant to take sides, are overshadowed by tensions between Turkey and Israel. The new goals of America may boost National markets in the near future, but they will destroy the old British systems.

The leading Western powers lack a planned foreign policy that can properly join the numerous agendas that exist. They are unaware of how to manage Ukraine, especially now that their military and industrial abilities have been reduced by decades of disengagement.

The main strategic drama, Asia, is missed by the incident. The United States ‘ nuclear umbrella is not comparable to that of France or the UK. But, some nations might decide to arm themselves, launching a never-before-seen nuclear arms race.

South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines are becoming more and more worried about China. Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Thailand are all at odds with navigating the current worldwide environment at the same time.

This recipe for growing conflict suggests that some issues, aside from nuclear war, might arise. Somebody needs to prepare themselves. Very few people are mentally ready, like on the eve of World War One, instead focusing on the current stock increase fueled by a tariff truce rather than a long-term tariff peace.

America’s goal appears to be to propel the economy until the midterm elections in 2014, secure a victory, and, in the process, attract trillions of fresh foreign investments to restart industrialization and generate millions of new jobs.

A fresh US-centered world order may be established from it. However, it is a significant spend. There aren’t any well-defined ideas or discussion among nations regarding their progress. The contrary is true: US allies have a lot of internal debate about American guidelines, and it could not work.

The Chinese may have various options in different situations because of their lifestyle. Russians, one of the world’s ambitious medium powers, could just wager on chaos to win out over their proper cunning. They are competing wagers that increase the risks.

In light of the numerous ongoing war in Ukraine and the Middle East, US President Donald Trump is right in calling for serenity and a pause. He was able to put an end to the India-Pakistan conflict quickly and reach a settlement on China’s levies. However, some things are also hung by a string.

Time and tranquility of thoughts are needed by The US and the rest of the world to try to sort out the continued unraveling. However, no one should spend the moment of delay. Despite the unwavering work, there is still no peace in Ukraine or the Middle East, and there is no sign of any true serenity in view.

Some other things could go wrong by trying to reconcile some opposing goals or the current chaos needs a new perspective. The next few weeks will be important to better understanding the situation, stock stakes, and whether the US has stopped retreating and the BRICS and BRI are beefing up.

With type agreement, this article originally appeared on Appia Institute. The initial can be read here.

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Asia without America, part 2: Japan’s Tang renaissance – Asia Times

Tokyo woman, Tokyo woman
You’ve got the techniques to rule the world
That adorable inscrutability
Tokyo woman, you’re a secret

basic ace

The democratic governments of Northeast Asia – Japan, South Korea and Taiwan – have survived and also thrived in a nightmarish equilibrium where their death is centered on:

    an America in Asia but not in Asia ( see here ), and

  • a China gathering its power and biding its time.

There are costs associated with this position status, this endless present, not just those associated with proper danger and wealth but also those associated with national incoherence and stagnation.

While Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have avoided the British trash fires of violence, drugs and fat, they have not been able to dodge the relativism and cultural alienation of end-state socialism and liberal democracy. The great professor did include his back on the pitfalls awaiting the Last Guy at the End of History, even though this writer enjoys bash Francis Fukuyama.

Liberal democracy produced “men without trunks”, composed of need and cause but lacking thymos, brilliant at finding innovative ways to satisfy a host of trivial desires through the analysis of long-term self-interest. Without the next man’s desire to be acknowledged as superior to others, no excellence or accomplishment was possible. Articles with his pleasure and unable to feel any sense of shame for being unable to rise above those wishes, the next man ceased to be individual.

Reddit / Jordan Peterson

In liberal democratic Asia, men without chests are the product of political design more than they are naturally occurring Last Men at history’s end.

The Liberal Democratic Party ( LDP ), which has been in power almost exclusively since its founding in 1955, is what made Postwar Japan.

The dark but now open secret of the LDP is that it was founded by accused war criminals ( including Prime Minister Nobusuke Kishi ) and had received financial and intelligence support from the US Central Intelligence Agency ( CIA ) for decades.

After Mao’s communists won China’s civil war in 1949, the US “reversed course” in Japan while Germany went through a denazification program. Japan’s right-wing militarists, expecting to be purged and charged with war crimes, were instead rehabilitated to form a political bulwark against communist expansion.

Many were certainly right to condemn Cold War opportunism, but ultimately it meant that the Japanese nation was less than sovereign, never adequately confronted its former wartime past, and never had a real say in the US’s military occupation.

Japan became a bonsai nation – a well-tended miniature state denuded of thymos. Sanctions against Toshiba, the Plaza Accord, and “voluntary” export quotas quickly reminded the Japanese of their place when they dared to challenge the US in the auto and semiconductor industries and pretend to be bonsai.

Japan is sui generis – no economy has stagnated for so long after outperforming so spectacularly for even longer. That is the tragedy of a bonsai country: only men with chests can dream so big. And so, Japan– once the land of samurai warriors and hardened salarymen – has been reduced to a theme park filled with kawaii anime, Pokémon, Super Mario and schoolgirl manga in not-so-hidden corners.

Japan will have to find a new equilibrium in the Western Pacific in the event that America’s military is no longer able to sustain itself. Japan’s interminable bonsai present cannot be all that satisfying, hanging over the nation the way regret haunts a Murakami novel.

Without America, Japan will have to fight for its right to self-determination, leave its bonsai pot, and leave its creepy hentai, hikikomori, and tentacle porn to become men with chests once more.

Much of this will be very off-putting to many Japanese. It will be terrifying to leave behind the comfort of a long-established equilibrium for an unknown future. Much of Asia has unfinished business with Japan. Not just any unfinished business, but blood debt of the most raw, most passionate kind, remembered for generations if not already immortalized in legend.

Japan had little to fear from China for almost all of its history prior to World War II. The Yuan Dynasty’s Mongols twice attempted to invade the Japanese islands, but they were defeated by bad weather each time. ( England and France, in comparison, fought 41 wars against each other since the Dark Ages. ) &nbsp,

This time, however, is different. It can be a bit unsettling to see China have a military that is powerful enough to crush the US ( hypothetically, of course ) and suffers from deep historical grievances. Without the US military, much of Asia – from China to South Korea to Southeast Asia – will want to settle unfinished family business.

However, World War II a long time ago. A lot of water has passed under the bridge. Only a select few of the Japanese war veterans are still alive. Few living Asians have memories of Japanese atrocities. It’s difficult to imagine Asia demanding anything but” symbolic” atonement gestures from Japan.

But in the land of thymos, symbolic gestures, like teaching war atrocities in Japan’s schools or removing war criminals from the Yasukuni Shrine, are the most difficult to swallow.

On November 25, 1970, novelist Yukio Mishima led by four disciples into a military base in central Tokyo, tied up the commander, blocked the doors, donned a white headband, stepped onto the balcony, and delivered a rousing speech to soldiers gathered below.

Yukio Mishima at the headquarters of the Japan Self-Defense Forces ‘ Eastern Region on the day of his death. AAP photo

Meant to inspire a military coup d ‘état restoring direct rule to the emperor, the speech was met with puzzlement and jeers. Shortly after his speech, Mishima apologized to the imprisoned commandant and committed hara-kiri ( seppuku ), disemboweling himself like a samurai in the past before being killed by a disciple.

Mishima spent all his adult life trying not to be a “man without a chest”. Mishima avoided almost certain death in the hopeless final days of the war by being turned down by the army for a false tuberculosis diagnosis he may or may not have faked.

Cheated from or having cheated the glory of battlefield death, Mishima lifted weights obsessively, became a skilled kendo swordsman and lamented the emptiness of modern Japan. Before Francis Fukuyama, Mishima identified Japan’s men without chests:

Japan has lost its spiritual tradition, and instead has become infested with materialism. Japan is currently suffering from a green snake curse. The green snake is biting Japan’s chest. There is no way to get out of this impure condition.

In 1959-1960, protests erupted across Japan in opposition to the United States-Japan Security Treaty, Anpo in abbreviated Japanese. The agreement would formally grant the US the right to keep its military installations in Japan.

Opposition was immense from both the left and the right. Hunderts of thousands of protestors crowded the Tokyo-based parliament of Japan at its height. On June 15, 1960, students breached the building, resulting in violent clashes with police.

The first Anpo had egregious terms in it:

  • no specific end date or means of abrogation,
  • allowing the US military to use bases without consulting the Japanese government, in any way.
  • authorization for US troops to put down domestic protests.

Even with those terms being specifically removed, the 1959-1960 protests were opposed to Anpo. Despite the protests, the revised Anpo was ratified, but at the cost of Prime Minister Nobusuke Kishi’s resignation and the cancellation of a celebratory visit by US President Dwight Eisenhower.

Student protests erupted again in 1968-1969, but this time in much less egregious form. The revised Anpo provided abrogation opportunities every ten years. Today, opposition to Anpo is largely confined to residents of Okinawa who bear the brunt of the environmental impact ( noise pollution, chemical run-offs, live-fire exercises ) and service member criminality of the US occupation.

The Anpo protests led to the radicalization of Yukio Mishima. In 1961, Mishima wrote the short story” Patriotism”, which was made into a popular 1966 short film in which he directed and starred.

The movie reached its climax when Lieutenant Takeyama committed hara-kiri while struggling to reconcile his love for both his comrade-in-arms and the Emperor’s strings. In an interview, Mishima explained:

The sense of beauty was always associated with death in samurai tradition. For instance if you commit hara-kiri, the samurai was requested to make-up his face by powder or lipstick in order to keep his face beautiful after his suffering death.

I don’t want to revive the hara-kiri itself, but through the very strong vision of hara-kiri, I want to inspire and stimulate younger people spiritually and spiritually by bringing back some sense of honor or sense of very strong responsibility. That’s my purpose.

The suicide of Mishima at the height of his life was a political call to arms, a personal cri de coeur, an artistic expression of supreme beauty, and a reclamation of the glorified death that slipped through his fingers as a young man.

This all proved too much for 1970 Japan. When the country was beginning to become cosmopolitan, its most well-known writer, blatantly conjuring up unpleasant memories, makes a feudal spectacle of himself. The stunt was certainly beyond the pale in neighboring China and both Koreas, whose inhabitants likely had had enough samurai swords, bushido and hara-kiri for a few centuries.

Mishima was trying to restore Japan to its former glory. Unfortunately, World War II survivor guilt bound him to the most objectionable period in Japan’s history.

After Commodore Perry and his black ships opened Japan under threat of cannon fire, tumultuous changes swept through Japanese society, toppling sworn-for-forgotten institutions like the shogunate and the samurai.

The Meiji restoration overturned the isolationist Edo period, centralized government and industrialized the economy, but ultimately went down an unfortunate militarist path. The remainder is, shall we say, history. Any hint of Meiji-Shōwa militarist revival surely would set off ear-piercing alarm bells across all of Asia.

Fortunately, Commodore Perry’s black ships do not need to be the beginning of Japan’s renaissance. Modern Japan has almost certainly retained more of the Tang Dynasty than modern China.

In Chang’an, the capital of the Tang Dynasty, kimonos, geisha makeup, and Kyoto-style architecture would look more appropriate than anything else in Beijing, Shanghai, or even Shenzhen.

Emperor Taizong ( Li Shimin ), the second emperor of the Tang dynasty, ruled from 626 to 649. He saw himself as a servant of the people because he was a follower of Confucius and a rationalist. Japan learned much from the Tang Dynasty. National Palace Museum photo via Wikimedia Commons

The Tang Dynasty (605 to 907, minus a 690-705 interregnum ) had a profound impact on all facets of Japanese culture, from aesthetics to language to religion to government.

With 25, 000 foreigners living in its capital, The Tang was perhaps the most cosmopolitan of China’s dynasties. Japanese, Turks, Koreans, Vietnamese, Persians, Indians and Central Asians filled Chang’an’s restaurants, wine-houses and temples ( Buddhist, Nestorian Christian, Zoroastrian ). &nbsp,  

In this atmosphere, Tang China was in constant contact with Japan, receiving 19 official missions (kentoshi ) of up to 600 people who made the two-year round-trip journey ( some staying decades before returning ).

In their official capacity, Japanese ambassadors and scholars who had completed the Kyoto Institute established Chinese-style laws, bureaucracies, calendars, and measurements. In their unofficial capacity, they brought back Chinese fashion, literature, musical instruments and artistic taste. &nbsp,

Fears of China collecting on Japanese blood debt in draconian fashion are highly misplaced. The Communist Party of China can revert to its Confucianism without a barbaric military presence along China’s maritime border. While the political West swings left and right, political China swings between Legalism and Confucianism.

Legalism and its authoritarian tendencies rule in these troubled times; there can be no entertainment and fun when Qin Shi Huang is reviving the Qin Dynasty. And only after Emperor Taizong defeated the Eastern and Western Turks could the Tang Dynasty relax, allowing Chang’an and Yangzhou to become cosmopolitan cities where commerce, poetry, painting, calligraphy, drunken parties and dancing girls flourished.

President Xi Jinping has been battening down China’s hatches along Legalist lines for over a decade, reining in the loosey-goosey free-for-all of the Hu-Wen era. China is no longer feigning its strength and passing the time.

China’s shipbuilding capacity is more than 200 times that of the US. It is only a matter of time. Without the US Navy Seventh Fleet stationed in Yokosuka, the Qin-esque Communist Party of China will mellow out and become Tang-esque – a version of China much more amenable to an anxious Japan.

Abandoning a well-known equilibrium to confront Japan’s past and secure an unknown future is a high-risk/high-reward endeavor. Japan has everything to lose. An unforgiving China bent on vengeance would be the end of Japan without the US’s support.

Japan, however, also has everything to gain. Japanese politics and society have been hampered for decades by the US military presence. A forgiving China not interested ( much ) in settling scores is the only real future Japan has. The status quo has stunted Japan, turning its novelists into purgatorial torture.

Mishima went out in a macabre blaze of glory. For what could have been, Murakami is unstoppable. And Ryū ( the other ) Murakami wants to set it all on fire. Japan can finally let its Tang renaissance wash over Asia in a hypothetical future free of American alien invasion.

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8 Singapore indie bookstores join forces to launch Bookshop.sg, a one-stop site for book lovers

Eddie Lim, Thryft’s co-founder and CEO, commented,” This partnership highlights the many creative approaches bookstores these are bringing great books to the people.”

Ho TingXuan, Thryft’s financial manager and Bookshop task manager, is Sg continued,” With this program, we hope to highlight and develop Singapore’s reading lifestyle.”

The Singaporean independent bookshops, in this together, is the platform’s phrase, which also aims to encourage further collaboration between participating bookstores.

With this first cooperation, all producers, booksellers, readers, and writers can quickly come together to discuss, explore, share our problems, and come up with solutions, according to Tan Waln Ching, chairman of City Book Room, a store and publisher with a focus on Chinese books.

The mood was shared by Ibrahim Tahir, the director of Wardah Books, an Islamist shop in Kampong Glam.

He claimed that” the platform is secondary.” The platform’s ability to co-operate with book sellers is its main goal. We are swayed from capitalism’s brutal economical design.

When we understand that we can have a unity of purpose, we can accomplish many different goals for the browsing field in this case.

Bookshop. Sg has eight locations now, but the company plans to soon allowed more independent booksellers and publishers from Singapore.

The team will also be hosting a physical exhibition of curated booksellers ‘ books, along with a booksellers ‘ panel at Thryft Hub at 120 Lower Delta Road on May 31 to celebrate the launch. Registering for the occasion through Bookshop is open to all interested parties. Instagram of Sg &nbsp,

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Commentary: Boeing and COMAC will suffer from US tariff fallout, but to varying degrees

RETALIATE, NEGOTIATE OR CAPITULATE?

While Western observers felt China’s drastic decision to suspend purchases from American planemakers would be a self-inflicted wound, the Chinese begged to differ.

People familiar with COMAC and the Civil Aviation Administration of China said the Chinese had anticipated Mr Trump’s moves when he won the elections last November.

“We knew tariffs were coming, there are plans B, C, D and so on,” an official told me. “We saw what happened to the Russians following sanctions (after the Ukraine invasion in 2022) and prepared accordingly.”

As a result of sanctions, Russian airlines and planemakers were unable to access replacement parts for its jets and were forced to ground aircraft.

While COMAC may not have publicly conceded to amassing foreign aircraft parts in the past two years, a source in Shanghai, where COMAC is based, suggested there is enough material to “make hundreds of aircraft in the next few years”.

COMAC is believed to have stockpiled at least 1,000 LEAP engines, specifically the LEAP-1C, which powers the C919, a single-aisle jet that competes directly with Airbus’ A320neo and Boeing’s 737 MAX.

The engine is co-produced by America’s GE and France’s Safran. The Airbus A320neo uses a similar engine, the LEAP-1A, while the B737 MAX is fitted with a LEAP-1B engine.

However, the engines used by the A320 and B737 MAX cannot be used by the C919; the LEAP-1C was designed exclusively for the COMAC jet.

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Race for No 2 in Anwar’s party: Rafizi and Nurul Izzah speak up against PM’s anti-graft moves

Candidates for the top two spots in Parti Keadilan Rakyat ( PKR ), the country’s prime minister, have voiced opposition to his anti-corruption agenda, but the closely-watched election has taken an unusual turn with incumbent Rafizi Ramli urging support for Nurul Izzah Anwar’s daughter.

Nurul Izzah, 44, and Rafizi, 47, the economy minister of Malaysia, squared off against one another for the deputy presidency. The nominations for PKR’s leadership election were closed last Friday ( May 9 ). &nbsp,

The winner will be Anwar’s presumed heir apparent, who is unopposed for the position of PKR president, and who will assist in leading the group in the government’s upcoming general election, which is scheduled for February 2028.

Rafizi warned over the weekend that if he straddles the anti-corruption campaign that won him the presidency, he could lose the next general election. &nbsp,

According to Rafizi, who was quoted by the local news outlet Free Malaysia Today ( FMT ),” We are still far from confident that we will continue to serve into Anwar Ibrahim’s second term.” &nbsp,

Rafizi, who spoke at a campaign show in Negeri Sembilan about his election, said the electorate is concerned about the president’s “failure to tackle corruption and abuse of power.” &nbsp,

He cited a study from the group that found that more voters who viewed this as a “major problem” increased by 15 percent items. In April 2025, the percentage increased to 31 % from 16 % in November 2023.

Rafizi, whose plan phrase reads” Revive the principles of reformasi in the evaluation of power,” said,” I have discussed and presented it to the PM and told him frequently that do not take the public’s perception of corruption softly because that is our most valuable asset.”

Rafizi made a surprise move at a subsequent event in Kedah on Monday, urging his followers to support Nurul Izzah and framing the election for PKR’s assistant administration as a test of understanding of Anwar.

What message do Nurul Izzah send to the people if Nurul Izzah lost? If she loses, Anwar may be rejected by PKR members as a sign. Nurul Izzah may win, he said, because of this.

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Two deputy leaders quit Palang Pracharath Party

Palang Pracharath deputy leaders Uttama Savanayana, right, and Sonthirat Sontijirawong, left, announce their decision to rejoin Palang Pracharath on Jan 30, 2023 after they earlier quit the party. The two key party figures have now again left the PPRP. (Photo: Pattarapong Chatpattarasill)
Uttama Savanayana, left, and Sonthirat Sontijiwang, left, the party’s assistant officials, announce their intention to resign on January 30th, 2023. The two important group figures have once more left the PPRP. ( Photo: Pattarapong Chatpattarasill )

Uttama Savanayana and Sonthirat Sontijirawong, the party’s assistant officials, have left the party.

According to a party source, Mr. Uttama and Mr. Sonthirat had now left to pay Gen Prawit Wongsuwon their final respect.

According to Thairath Online, Gen Prawit and Mr. Uttama met last week and the two gentlemen had previously written resignation letters to the Election Commission.

Political uncertainty and concern for the group’s future were the main factors that led to the two key figure figures ‘ exit, according to some.

In the 2019 general election, Mr. Sonthirat and Mr. Uttama, a previous PPRP president, led the party’s plan. In the case of then-prime secretary Gen Prayut Chan-ocha, Mr. Uttama served as the finance minister, and Mr. Sonthirat took over the position of energy minister.

The two eventually left the party, but they both rejoined it on January 30, 2023. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Gen Prawit refuted rumors that its MPs would join the coalition’s Kla Dharma Party and resisted joining the government coalition next month.

The Kla Dharma Party’s main adviser, Thamanat Prompow, before made hints at including more opposition MPs in the organization.

What would be Mr. Uttama’s and Mr. Sonthirat’s following steps, it was unknown.

  

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