Moves

America is certainly attempting to conserve Europe at this time.

That is the clear communication of two location statements from the previous year — one by U. S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, the other by Vice President JD Vance. Hegseth stated at a conference in Brussels on February 12 that Europe is no longer America’s top priority for safety:

We’re here presently to declare unequivocally that the United States of America is primarily focused on the security of Europe. The United States is in danger of facing serious threats to our country. We must – and we are – focusing on protection of our own borders… We furthermore face a peer competition in the Communist Chinese with the ability and intention to harm our country and core national hobbies in the Indo-Pacific.

For the sake of all of us, punishment never fail. As the US favors deterring war with China in the Pacific, the US must make the resource compromises that reflect this. [ I put emphasis on mine ]

Hegseth also warned that the US will eventually&nbsp, take its troops out of Europe, and said that Europe may provide the vast majority of aid for Ukraine going forward.

Vance argued two days later at the Munich Security Conference that what he saw as a fallout from the anti-democratic principles was Europe’s biggest risk rather than Russia or China.

The danger from within, the surrender of Europe from some of its most basic values, ideals shared with the United States of America, is the one that worries me the most about. It is not China, it is not any other additional actor.

As evidence of Europe’s retreat from democracy, he cited Romania ‘s&nbsp, cancellation&nbsp, of an election result due to supposed election interference, Sweden ‘s&nbsp, jailing&nbsp, of a rightist activist for burning a Koran, and Britain ‘s&nbsp, arrest&nbsp, of an anti-abortion activist for silently praying near an abortion clinic. He even urged Western governments to spend more on defense and to listen to their members who are upset about current wave after wave of emigration.

Although these statements may be interpreted in two entirely different ways, they both lead to the same fundamental conclusion.

The initial understanding is that Hegseth and Vance are telling Europe hard beliefs that it needs to hear. Even if America wants and needs to be the surety of Western security as it did in the Cold War and World Wars, it can’t, at least not if it wants to be the surety of surveillance in Asia, where its most fearsome foe looms. In terms of manufacturing capacity, China is significantly ahead of America in terms of community and technologies, and it has four instances that of America. Yet with Japan, India, Korea, Australia, and other friends entirely on board, America may be sorely hard-pressed to endure a concerted Chinese attempt to take over Asia.

America is not the democracy’s army anymore, it once was, smothered by decades of underdevelopment and smothered in levels of claims and regulations. There is no choice but to promote because it has. Asia is more economically crucial to the US, and China is a&nbsp, much&nbsp, bigger long-term danger to the US than Russia is. Therefore, it’s just inevitable that America will have to turn away from Europe and the Middle East and instead focus more on Asia.

Vance does make a point about Western values. The EU Charter of Fundamental Rights&nbsp, claims to safeguard freedom of expression, as does the UK’s&nbsp, Human Rights Act of 1998. The laws that prohibit burning the Koran and praying near an abortion office certainly seem to violate the right to free speech. And even though Russia allegedly influenced Romania’s vote, canceling it risks creating a dangerous precedent because it’s always relatively simple to claim or manipulate foreign interference if you’re an immoral autocrat.

So it’s probable that Hegseth and Vance are not only being honest, but are giving Europe a needed wake-up visit.

Hegseth and Vance are portrayed as being dishonest in the following sense. According to this tale, the MAGA action respects and has a close relationship with Russia. Trump draws a false social equality between Russia and Ukraine, unfairly&nbsp, laying some of the blame on Ukraine&nbsp, for the battle.

Regardless of whether or not their help has been significantly significant, Trump has a strong preference for those who support him. Russia has always, favored Trump over his rivals. And unlike the Europeans, who they perceive as wicked deracinated socialists, many on the British right mistakenly view Russia as a follower of traditional Christian and muscular values. But perhaps Trump and his folks just want Russia to prevail over Ukraine.

Hegseth is obviously blowing the whistle when he claims that America needs to divert resources to secure its own borders. Even the$ 7.3 billion that America spends on border security ( just$ 7.3 billion in 2024, despite years of significant increases ), would leave it much less than Ukraine aid. And it’s a little pricey for JD Vance to condemn Romania for allowing an vote when he backs Trump’s plan to do something incredibly related in 2020.

In this view, all Trump’s people are saying is simply an extension of right-wing culture-war politics — their problem for free conversation is a fig leaf, they like European far-right parties because they’re anti-immigration, and they want to change America’s foreign policy up to isolationism and the Northern Hemisphere.

Which of these interpretations is correct, in my opinion, is a little agnostic. I believe that Hegseth is being sincere, while Vance is likely exploiting his domestic political base in the US. In addition, the Trump administration likely includes a number of both right-wing isolationists who want America to leave the world and concentrate all of its efforts on internal ideological conflicts, and conservative internationalists who acknowledge the magnitude of the threat from China.

But more importantly, I think that from Europe’s vantage point, &nbsp, it mostly doesn’t matter&nbsp, which interpretation of America’s recent words and actions is more accurate.

Whether America really wants to concentrate on deterring China in Asia or whether it wants to focus on bullying Canada, Panama, and its own minorities is another question that ignores the cold hard reality that America is stepping down as the protector of European security.

Whether or not Trump’s supporters actually believe Russia to be a threat to Europe doesn’t change the fact that Russia is a threat to Europe. And whether Trump’s people truly care about free speech, that doesn’t change the fact that&nbsp, Europe’s people are angry&nbsp, about recent immigration waves, and if that anger isn’t accommodated through the democratic process, Europe’s stability could be in danger.

In other words, both the challenges that Europe faces and the fact that the US is unwilling to assist in those challenges are obvious and obvious. Europe must either retaliate against the threats that confront it or abandon its position.

Fortunately, some of the Europeans may finally be realizing this. Hegseth is essentially correct in his argument that Europe needs to step up and fill the void the US is leaving, which Benjamin Tallis has in an excellent thread. Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, has been&nbsp saying similar things. And France’s President Macron has &nbsp, called an emergency EU summit&nbsp, to discuss America’s withdrawal from the region.

And fortunately, even without America’s assistance, Europe has the fundamental strength it needs to withstand the threats it faces.

Russia can be handled alone by Europe if it so chooses to.

Just as the US is overmatched by China, Russia is overmatched by Europe. I wrote out the fundamental case two years ago along with some pertinent numbers.

Russia and Europe both have significantly more people and industries. The EU and UK together have half a billion people — more than three times as many as Putin’s empire:

The ratio is even more lopsided when Turkey is included in the mix.

As for industrial output, even after Russia’s big wartime mobilization, Europe still makes far more stuff. Russia would only be the region’s fifth-largest manufacturing nation if it were included in Europe:

Even the UK manufactures more than Russia!

This is just a rough measure because not all types of manufacturing are equally useful for war. For example, Russia typically produces a lot of tanks and artillery shells, while Europe produces a lot of pharmaceuticals and medical devices.

However, the comparison is so unfair that it is obvious that a united, determined Europe would prevail over Russia in any protracted conventional conflict, even without the iota of American assistance. And Europe has its own nuclear deterrent as well, mostly in the hands of France and the UK.

It’s also fanciful to think that Europe might band together to combat Russia. NATO command can act as a single military force for any and all European efforts against Russia, even if the United States officially withdraws from NATO or simply refuses to come to its aid.

Crucially, NATO also includes Turkey and the UK, who aren’t in the EU, but both of which are rivals of Russia. Without a Trump-led US weighing the alliance down, it might be free to become the pan-European military force that the region requires.

Politically speaking, Europe is more united than it has ever been throughout its history, as evidenced by how the entire region banded together to impose sanctions on Russia in 2022, and how even traditionally neutral nations like Sweden have been a part of NATO.

But even with unity, Europe will still need the will to fight. None of Europe’s largest countries are currently achieving the level of what it would take to contain Russia without American assistance, despite the many bold rhetoric from officials in Germany, France, and the UK.

This is typically expressed in terms of the share of GDP that European nations invest in their militaries. And yes, Russia spends far more of its GDP on its military than the major European countries do:

Changes to this number can also reveal details about a nation’s priorities. Germany, France, and the UK are showing that they aren’t yet taking the Russian threat as seriously as they should, despite the fact that military spending hasn’t increased significantly in those countries. Poland, in contrast, is clearly taking the threat seriously, which is why Hegseth consistently praises Poland.

Of course, because Europe has a much higher GDP than Russia does, even a smaller share of GDP could result in a higher total military spending amount. However, it’s important to keep in mind that the real purchasing power of the military also depends on prices, such as soldiers ‘ salaries and medical expenses, weapons, vehicles, transportation, etc. are cheaper in Russia than in Europe, that means$ 1 of Russian defense spending counts for more than$ 1 of European defense spending.

In reality, Russia sells its military equipment for a a lot  less. Taking this into account, it probably spends about as much money on its military as all of Europe combined:

Russia’s military expenditure is rising so fast that it is outperforming all European countries combined despite their effort to boost budgets and rearm, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies ‘ latest&nbsp, Military Balance report…The think tank said that Russia’s military expenditure last year was forecast at 13.1 trillion rubles ($ 145.9 billion ) …Meanwhile, Europe’s combined 2024 defense spending was$ 457 billion …11.7 percent higher in real terms than the previous year…

The Kremlin’s military expenditure would reach$ 461.6 billion, the IISS said, if its spending is calculated in purchasing power parity terms, which are used in nations like Russia where domestic inputs are significantly less expensive than on the global market.

Russia has about 1.1 million active military personnel, whereas NATO does not have nearly as many, despite having about a quarter of that number. But it’s not clear how many of those troops NATO could actually bring to bear in a fight.

Germany, France, and the UK need to immediately and significantly increase their defense spending. Hegseth is correct in saying that Poland’s goal of 5 % of GDP by 2025 is appropriate and roughly equivalent to what the US spent on its military spending during the 1980s during the peace process.

Furthermore, European countries need to make sure their troops are well-trained and their militaries are well-integrated. And Europe needs to strengthen its nuclear deterrent in order to be less dependent on the ( now likely nonexistent ) US nuclear umbrella. France and the UK need to build more nukes, while Germany and Poland need to obtain their own.

There are essentially two dangers for Europe: a lack of cooperation between nations and a lack of popular will within each nation.

It’s possible that European publics simply don’t worry enough about the Russian threat, or that they’ve become so rich and complacent — or perhaps so infused with leftist ideology — that they hate the very idea of spending money on the military. Elites in Europe, particularly those in Germany, France, and the UK, simply need to persuade the public that a strong, integrated defense is necessary.

If they are unable to do that, the European nations will demonstrate that democracies are inherently weak and incapable of standing up for themselves. In the 20th century, democracies passed the toughness test, sacrificing blood and treasure to crush fascism and contain communism. Perhaps America is failing that test in the twenty-first century. If so, it becomes even more crucial that Europe succeed in the examination.

The other danger is that each European country will look after its own narrow interests, throwing the other countries to the wolves. There is a tendency for each nation to view the countries east of it as buffer states, which is a defense-in-depth way to fend off the Russians. This is a dangerous fantasy.

The more Russia conquers, the more powerful it growth, since it basically enslaves each conquered group into its army to conquer the next group. When the USSR attacked Poland in 1919, it did so with a large number of Ukrainian troops, and when it faced West Europe’s Cold War, Polish troops were used to defend it. And so forth. Europe has to make a stand and put up a hard wall, instead of letting Russia continue to absorb and enslave its people bit by bit.

It might make sense for Europe to actively participate in the conflict, helping the Ukrainians stop Russia from grabbing any more territory, if the US abandons Ukraine entirely to Russia, as it appears to be now.

Europe could send troops to strengthen Ukraine’s defenses and learn how modern warfare operates while they are lacking in manpower and grit. But even if direct intervention doesn’t happen, Europe will need to fortify its borders in the east against continued Russian encroachment.

There is actually a historical precedent for this. The UK and France formed a partnership in 1865-1946 to defend the weakening Ottoman Empire from Russian territorial grabs. The result was the Crimean War, in which the alliance of Britain, France, and Turkey — depicted at the top of this post — defeated the Russians and halted their westward expansion. Over the next 20 years, Europe will be able to defeat the new Russian empire, even if it doesn’t actually fight in Ukraine. If Europe increases defense spending and deploys its forces to its eastern borders.

Europe needs to reform its immigration and economy.

It should also go without saying that Europe needs to fix its economy. Over the past ten and a half, the region has stagnated. Even when comparing purchasing power parity, which is unaffected by exchange rate movements, it is obvious that Europe has been trailing the US:

It’s not just that the U. S. has more immigration, either — Europe ‘s&nbsp, per capita GDP has lagged&nbsp, as well.

Particularly poorly has Germany done in recent years. Before the Ukraine war broke out, Russian gas was cut off, and its industrial production has been declining since long before:

When confronted with these facts, Europeans typically comfort themselves ( or attack their American critics ) by highlighting Europe’s lower levels of inequality, life expectancy, and crime. However, those benefits don’t really help the hundreds of thousands of Russian drones, which make Europe a nice place to live. To build up military-industrial strength, you need higher GDP and you need higher industrial production.

How Europe can obtain those things is a challenging question to answer. There are some obvious policy choices, such as removing internal trade barriers between European nations, general deregulation, and reversing the Danish “flexicurity” system to promote labor mobility. Europe also needs as much cheap energy as it can get, since factories are especially power-hungry.

There is a requirement to restart all mothballed nuclear reactors, and many more should be constructed. Europe should also be generating as much solar power as possible, particularly in Spain, where it’s sunny and sparsely populated, before using high-voltage transmission lines to supply the country’s industrial heartland.

On top of that, Europe needs to build a better software industry. AI and especially software will play an increasingly significant role in manufacturing, and exporting software can also help to boost the economy. Europe already has a lot of talented coders, especially in East Europe, and it also has a lot of capital to invest.

However, the region has been having a really difficult time creating a software ecosystem a la the US. Deregulation should be the first step in this regard, making sure that there are no real obstacles to innovation until laws like GDPR are changed. After that, tweak financial laws to encourage venture capital, and work to harmonize standards and regulations across EU member states so the market isn’t fragmented.

Age is one of Europe’s biggest challenges, and every nation in the world is either dealing with it or will have to deal with it quickly. Unfortunately, effective pro-natalist policies still don’t exist ( mostly because France only experiences passing results with them ) Until recently, robust immigration partially filled Europe’s gap, but there is a huge backlash against the types of immigrants Europe has been absorbing in a flurry of mass for the past ten and a half. Even if you doubt JD Vance’s motives, he’s right that European countries need to accede to the will of their increasingly immigration-skeptical populaces, to do otherwise would risk political instability.

The most obvious move in this situation is to simply restrict the set of source countries, in addition to deporting immigrant criminals so that the populace feels more positively about the entire thing. It would probably be a good idea to take fewer refugees from violent war-torn areas and more skilled or semi-skilled immigrants from stable low-crime nations.

Anyway, I have &nbsp, much&nbsp, more to say about the European economy, but for right now, I just want to point out that although Europe desperately needs a stronger military, countries that pump up their militaries without concomitant increases in their economic output typically don’t fare well.

Instead of waiting for America to intervene and save the day like it did in the 20th century, the Europeans need to think about economics and military power as one big interconnected effort.

This article was originally published on Noah Smith’s Noahpinion&nbsp, Substack, and it is now republished with kind permission. Become a Noahopinion&nbsp, subscriber&nbsp, here.

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