Mongolia seeks closer ties amid major power rivalry

On: April 21, 2024

Mongolian Foreign Minister Battsetseg Batmunkh stated in an exclusive interview with Bangkok Post that the country hopes to develop stronger relationships with Thailand overall.

Ms Battsetseg, the second person to be appointed to the blog, is making an official attend to Thailand from now till next Wednesday.

In light of a slew of political difficulties, she described her life and career, how Mongolia is navigating problems, and how she sees strengthening ties with Thailand.

According to Ms. Battsetseg, she has always wanted to work as a minister. This led to her enrolling in the National University of Mongolia’s mentor program in international relationships.

After graduating, she established the” Mönkhyin üseg Group” and served as the head of its board of directors from 2007–2015. She continued to advise the finance secretary until 2016 in that capacity.

Before taking the position of foreign minister in January 2021, she served as the evil minister of international relations from 2016 to 2020.

” Over the years, I have gained experience working in diverse governmental agencies, [and ] holding different political jobs, many of which were closely tied to international relations and global teamwork,” she said.

Mongolia’s world watch

The country’s foreign policy was mapped out by the State Great Hural [Parliament ] of Mongolia in 2011 as it aimed to pursue a peace-oriented, open, independent and multi-pillared approach, Ms Battsetseg said.

With regard to other nations in the region, Ms. Battsetseg cited close relationships and socially beneficial cooperation with our two neighbors [ China and Russia], as well as maintaining a “balanced and good neighborly relationship with our two neighbors,” according to Ms. Battsetseg, who also mentioned close relationships and mutually beneficial cooperation with our second neighbors.

She stated that Mongolia is engaged in international politics and has diplomatic ties with all 192 UN member states, as well as the Holy See, the State of Palestine, and the European Union.

According to Ms. Battsetseg, Mongolia is committed to promoting peace and security both in the area and around the globe.

With its single-state nuclear-weapon-free area position, the government’s dedication to the non-proliferation of atomic weapons and achieving atomic peace has been extensively welcomed and supported by the global community, she said.

In 2013, the” Ulaanbaatar Dialogue on Northeast Asian Security” program was established to handle the region’s safety issues. This community has now evolved into a popular method for governments, international organisations and education to participate, exchange views and, most important, to find common ground for probable solutions.

” Last time, we hosted the 8th period of the Ulaanbaatar Dialogue. More than 180 members, representing 30 states and over a hundred companies, attended the event. The” UBD Youth Forum,” which encouraged young experts to meet the speech, was a recent addition to the meeting, Ms. Battsetseg noted.

She said that the UN peace activities are one of the crucial means of maintaining international peace and security.

In the two years that Mongolia has participated in UN peacekeeping, over 20,000 Peoples have served as “blue hats” in 11 peacekeeping missions in hot patches around the world.

” Now, we are the 19th-largest contribution to UN security. In the Northeast and Central Asian area, we are the second-largest army source after China,” Ms Battsetseg said.

The Mongolian administration’s agenda includes promoting gender equality and empowering women and girls, especially those who live in remote regions. These initiatives have been taken to an international levels.

She noted that Mongolia has organized a number of activities to help achieve these objectives, including a global conference on expanding the role of women in peace in June 2022 and the meeting of feminine foreign ministers in June 2023.

” For this year, Ulaanbaatar will host the World Women’s Forum on August 22–23. The website will focus on the importance of women’s autonomy, gender equality, and their involvement and leadership in addressing environment change-related issues and the realization of the SDGs,” she said, referring to the United Nation’s 17 Sustainable Development Goals.

50 years of P2P exchanges

Ms. Battsetseg claimed that their first encounter can be traced back to a meeting of their envoys in the 13th or 14th century, despite Thailand and Mongolia officially establishing ties on March 5, 1974.

Despite their geographical dispersion, she claimed, the two sides were able to lay a strong foundation for the growth of ties by finding common ground in Buddhism as well as some aspects of their respective cultures and traditions.

Both nations have seen progress and success in various cooperating areas since Mongolia’s democratic reforms started in 1990.

People-to-people exchanges climbed, highlighted by Her Royal Highness Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn’s visit to Mongolia in 1992 and a visit by the president of Mongolia, His Excellency Mr P O Chirbat, to Thailand in 1994.

” Many other high-level visits followed, adding momentum, enriching the scope of cooperation, and fostering friendly relations between our two countries,” Ms Battsetseg said.

Both sides have stopped issuing visas for ordinary passport holders since 2007 and introduced seasonal direct flights, which means that Mongolians are traveling to Thailand are increasing at the same time.

Thailand is also becoming a tourist destination for Mongolians, particularly medical travelers, according to Ms. Battsetseg.

In 2023 over 13,000 Mongolians travelled to Thailand, a notable increase from 8,000 the year before. Conversely, the number of Thai nationals visiting Mongolia in 2023 surpassed 2,000, marking a threefold rise from 2022.

Setting its sights on welcoming more global adventurers, Ulaanbaatar has declared 2023–2025 as” The Years to Visit Mongolia”, under the rallying call of” Welcome to Mongolia”.

The government eased the entry visa requirements for people visiting 30 countries and introduced an online visa application system that makes it simple for citizens to apply for visas in 99 countries, making the application process go smoothly.

This promotion has amplified Mongolia’s appeal as a top-tier destination, Ms Battsetseg said, and as of December 2023 the country has been witnessing a record influx of tourists.

Also, due to the country’s expanding network of air connections and enhanced road infrastructure, navigating the vast expanses of Mongolia has become more convenient.

We want to welcome more Thai visitors to our nation so they can experience the Mongolian people’s hospitality and natural beauty, according to Ms. Battsetseg.

Mutual trade and investment

Aside from the people-to-people connections, both sides are hoping to see more mutual trade and investment.

A body, according to Ms. Battsetseg, will foster regular dialogue and foster cross-sector collaboration. A framework that orients cooperation in high priority areas has also been created using a five-year work plan.

Additionally, she said, the two nations have established a Joint Trade Commission, which is essential for boosting trade and economic cooperation.

She continued,” It is crucial to maintain the momentum of our dynamic cooperation.”

The country is seeking to explore new areas of cooperation that align with Mongolia’s 2050 Vision and Thailand’s Vision 2030, she noted.

According to Ms. Battsetseg, agricultural research and development that strengthens both countries ‘ capacity for food production could be a new area of cooperation as Thailand strives to become a leading industrial hub.

She pointed out that Mongolia’s expertise in livestock farming could complement Thailand’s strengths in crop cultivation and processing.

Additionally, joint efforts to advance sustainable and organic farming practices could lead to new markets for agricultural products from both nations, particularly in those areas where organic food is increasingly in demand.

” Furthermore, we could cooperate in air cargo transportation, as our direct flights from Ulaanbaatar to Bangkok are scheduled to operate year-round starting from this year. Last year alone, 53,000 Mongolians travelled to Bangkok, Phuket and Pattaya, and Thailand was one of the top destinations for Mongolians,” she added.

On top of that, with the increasing demand for digital technology and innovation, Mongolia is keen to collaborate with Thailand in promoting digital innovation and entrepreneurship through exchange programmes, joint hackathons, and startup incubation initiatives.

Working in financial technology ( fintech ) could involve sharing expertise in blockchain technology and creating financial services that are specific to the needs of both countries, according to Ms. Battsetseg.

She said it is crucial to facilitate more interactions between Thai and Mongolian businesses.

According to Ms Battsetseg, strengthening ties between the two parties ‘ respective business communities will lead to greater mutual trade and investment.

This could involve organising more business forums, exchanging business delegations, attending Mongolia’s Economic Forum and the region’s largest food and beverage trade show, THAIFEX, or other trade shows and exhibitions, and engaging matchmaking events to connect potential partners and facilitate collaboration, she said.

At the same time,” MonGolia, Always Moving” was launched as this year’s tourism campaign.

According to Ms. Battsetseg, it demonstrates Mongolia’s investment prospects while preserving the country’s traditional nomadic culture from an economic standpoint.

It serves as an open invitation at the same time as a platform for expanding tourism and attracting more investment.

We also anticipate working toward the final drafts of the pending intergovernmental agreements and treaties to enhance the legal environment. Looking ahead, I am confident that the future of Mongolia-Thailand relations is even brighter. ” Ms Battsetseg said.

Regional partners

Amid a series of ongoing global challenges, Ms Battsetseg said Mongolia recognises the importance of solidarity, interconnectedness, cooperation and multilateralism.

Thailand and Mongolia are both committed to strengthening bilateral cooperation as well as to co-operating at multilateral forums to discuss issues of common concern, she continued.

Since the 1990s, Mongolia has pursued a multi-pillar and open foreign policy, actively seeking to integrate into the Asia-Pacific region.

In 2005, Ulaanbaatar ratified the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia, acknowledging the significance of Asean’s contribution to regional integration.

Ms. Battsetseg stated that it intends to actively participate in Asean and its subsidiary organizations ‘ activities going forward.

Thailand is Mongolia’s third-largest trade partner in Southeast Asia.

I want to share a quote from King Rama IX’s speech as we pause to remember the historic milestone,” Ms. Battsetseg said.

“‘Friendship between nations is important, but what is more important is people-to-people relations, which can guarantee peace and progress’. “

” I firmly believe in the significance of this statement, as it highlights the crucial role of cultivating connections between people as the foundation of achieving lasting peace and progress,” Ms. Battsetseg continued.

I’m confident that our relationship will continue to grow, and I look forward to working closely with my Thai counterparts to improve our relationship for the benefit of our respective nations and people. “

MFP seminar talks govt”s digital wallet

By: Barkar Nash

On: April 21, 2024

In: South-East Asia

PUBLISHED: 22 Apr 2024 at 04 :20

The government should review the 10,000-baht digital wallet scheme’s requirements, according to the Move Forward Party ( MPF ) recommendation.

The group hosted a workshop on the program on Saturday, with Sirikanya Tansakul, MFP lieutenant head, leading the conversation.

Information of the system were made public by the government on April 10. It will help those aged 16 or older who make less than 70,000 baht per quarter and who have less than 500,000 ringgit in their accounts to use online money to purchase goods for small businesses.

Ms. Sirikanya posed a query about the concept of a small business that she has not already identified as being specific. The state defines small businesses around as shops excluding supermarkets, office stores, discount stores and retail stores. She claimed that the description may include large-scale convenience store chains because it was too broad.

She said this added more restrictions on the actual small businesses, such as the smaller grocery stores or sellers. These included a condition that those small businesses or suppliers first need to have their tax registration and get approved by the Finance Ministry before joining the program.

Additionally, they wo n’t be able to send money out immediately after a customer purchases a good or service from their digital wallet.

These small businesses must use the digital currency that their customers give them to purchase goods or services in supermarkets, reduction shops, or VAT-free retail locations, as opposed to new markets. Thus, it would be those second-tier shops, which are usually big gamers, who benefit from the system, she said.

To get smaller businesses, the requirements for store applications may be changed to discourage spending on larger corporations. Ms. Sirikanya claimed there is enough time to review the criteria because the government does not intend to start register for at least three months.

The government plans to use the” Tang Rat” app for the program. But, Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, the additional MFP MP on the screen, doubted the application would be available by the third quarter.

Individually, Sanan Angubolkul, president of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said the faster the program starts, the better for the economy, but some components still need to be discussed.

He also suggested that the government use the” Pao Tang” program instead of creating a new one because the customers may be familiar with it.

Commentary: Malaysia’s difficult path to a low-carbon economy

By: Jing Write

On: April 19, 2024

In: Asia

Second, Malaysia should pursue the huge potential for green investment in electric vehicles ( EVs ), including motorcycles, and in hydrogen-based industries. Malaysia might become a leader in innovation, for instance, by utilizing battery-swapping systems in EVs to shorten recharge cycles and extend battery life. The opportunities for EV deployment, such as the road tax deduction and individual tax deduction relating to EV costs, are justified. An EV trend may be crucial to Kuala Lumpur’s 2030 goal of reducing coal power to 45 per share of the 2005 levels.

The biggest desire for green tech lies in a gas discovery. A clean power alternative to natural gas that produces enormous heat as a byproduct as well as water. However, its commercialism faces difficult challenges, particularly due to the high cost of producing hydrogen. The options are already growing, with gas being increasingly used in substances, cotton fabric production, cup, electronics, and metalworking.

Malaysia has great potential in this area as positive experiences emerge, for instance in Sarawak, where projects such as H2ornbill and H2biscus, in collaboration with Asian and North Korean lovers respectively, have made strides in hydrogen-based, export-oriented business.

Third, Malaysia needs to sea up administrative and financial assistance. In addition to money models, incentives, and grants for alternative technology adoption and R& development, there are other important areas of focus. D.

The state needs clearer standards and regulations in green markets, and more strict monitoring of efficient investments, to increase transparency and accountability. The state could also take into account the creation of a natural classification, which local banks have indicated would be helpful in setting criteria for approving natural loans. Lastly, enhancing the mobility and quality of data will be important for policy research, monitoring, evaluation, and future reforms.

With its big rely on fossil fuels, Malaysia faces a difficult but necessary road to decarbonisation. Yet, the country is well-positioned to plug into emerging industrial opportunities for low-carbon growth in industry and travel. Moving forward, Malaysia has confidently and quickly encourage green investments and work toward its carbon reduction objectives.

The ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute is hosting Vinod Thomas as a visiting top brother. This commentary second appeared on the Institute’s site, Fulcrum.

Battle for supremacy in East Asia semiconductor manufacturing

By: Jing Write

On: April 19, 2024

In: Asia

According to state media, Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for advances to be made to separate China from what it has called” stranglehold technology” for a decade, with seven of them being related to electronics.

A teacher from Peking University was seen telling his students that if China were to completely research, create, and create the high-speed coach system on its own, according to their study in a widely circulated video on Chinese social media platforms.

Without unrestricted access to the global supply chains for electronics, you China’s device ambitions come correct?

Even as China tries to push its superior manufacturing sector, a recruitment consultant claimed there is a skill gap.

China wants to be seen as the gateway and spoke within the Asian markets for international companies that want to engage in manufacturing capacity, according to Ms. Jaya Dass, managing director of the recruitment firm Randstad Asia-Pacific.” China wants to see that advancement provides greater efficiency and productivity, not just from its own labor force.

China is having a hard time finding the appropriate skills in this field, though. Its labor supply market is failing to improve its digital and automated skills. ”

Can Modi honestly run on his economic record? – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: April 19, 2024

In: Asia

Between April 19 and early June, more than 960 million Indians did cast ballots in the largest vote in the world. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party ( BJP), which is led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is running for re-election. And the surveys indicate that it will accomplish this goal.

If one was to go by socioeconomic development characters only, the Modi government’s achievement has been amazing. When Modi came to power in 2014, monetary progress was slow. Investor assurance in the American market was undermined by a number of well-known corruption scandals.

But between 2014 and 2022, India’s gross domestic product ( GDP ) per capita ( a measure of income per head ) rose from US$ 5,000 to over$ 7,000 – an increase of roughly 40 % in eight years. In these calculations, purchasing power parity is used to compare public purchasing power between nations over time.

This rise occurred in spite of an ill-advised test early on in Modi’s second term to get ₹500 and ₹1000 information out of flow. The removal of the papers caused a severe cash shortage, which slowed the per capita GDP growth from 6 to a rapid per capita GDP growth. 98 % in 2016 to 5. 56 % in 2017.

The Indian market is projected to grow at a rate of 6 according to the International Monetary Fund. 5 % in 2024. That is more than China’s predicted 4 percent development rate. 6 %, and exceeds that of any other big market. The UK’s business, for example, is expected to grow by 0. 6 % in 2024.

However, new estimates even suggest that inequality in India is at an all-time great. Progress, when it has occurred, has evidently been unequal. In its subsequent term, the Modi government will have to change higher growth into successful jobs while also reducing the overabundance of India’s economic and political leaders ‘ wealth.

All dust and cameras?

India’s economic performance is difficult to assess because the government has n’t released any official poverty and employment data since 2011. Analysts have turned to alternative data sources because they are less reliable than the extensive and nationally representative use and employment surveys conducted by the American government’s statistical agency.

As a consequence, a gets madly varying estimates of hunger. The American government released a brief less than two weeks before the primaries that suggested poverty in India had reached its lowest level in 2022.

The findings were based on a significant use survey conducted by the American government. But the real information behind the government’s estimations was never released for independent research.

No one really knows what the real estimates of poverty and inequality are due to the lack of accountability with the information. A nation renowned for its founding family surveys, which were far ahead of their time, is in regrettable here.

An Indian man sitting on a rooftop. — According to current federal statistics, extreme poverty has been eradicated in India. Photo: Sheldon Maxwell / Shutterstock via The Talk

The innovative extending

The Modi government put more emphasis on providing public goods and social welfare programs in a less corrupt way in its next word. A sizable rural road construction program was launched in response to this, as well as the enrollment of around 99 % of American adults in Aadhaar, a modern ID system that was linked to fingerprints and retina scans.

The Aadhaar implementation, in special, has allowed national and state governments to deliver benefits to the bad directly through their Aadhaar-linked bank transactions. It has also helped to prevent leaking, which has long been a problem with India’s security system.

Important products such as restrooms and cooking cylinder, which are usually privately provisioned, were supplied in large amounts by the state. This led to what Indian economist and the former Chief Economic Advisor to the government, Arvind Subramanian, called “New Welfarism ” in India.

During the crisis, security applications were delivered most quickly. For instance, the government’s food payment expenses increased by nearly five times between 2019–2020 and 2021–2022, ensuring people were able to get cheap foods grains.

There have also been other successful locations. From 88 % to 99 % in 2014, the proportion of Indian villages that have electricity access increased. 6 % in 2020. And 71. 1 % of people in India now own an account at a financial institution, up from 48. 3 % in 2014.

These large cash payments, in addition to the greater distribution of goods and services to India’s poor, have helped the BJP gain more ground among the less fortunate. Generally, these groups have tended to voting for the opposition Congress Party.

Lack of great careers

The Modi government has grown India’s sector. However, it has not been as successful in providing poor and weak workers with productive jobs.

Only about 20 % of workers work in manufacturing or business services like IT, while approximately 40 % of workers remain in agriculture. Pre-poll studies indicate that some voters worry about rising prices and employment because of them.

Given that the Modi government has a history of launching numerous initiatives to kickstart production, the government’s record on creating jobs is astonishing. The Make in India initiative, which was introduced in 2014 as a result of Modi’s election, was designed to lower Indian company costs.

India is also lagging on manufacturing-led economic development. Image: Online Screengrab

The more current production-linked reward scheme launched in November 2023 followed this. To increase local production in key manufacturing sectors, including drones, the program provided$ 24 billion in business incentives. But, manufacturing’s share of result remained the same in 2022 as it was when Modi first took office.

For India to follow the labor-intensive modernization success of China, deeper fundamental changes are needed in the country ’s goods, employment and credit industry. However, it will be politically challenging because it involves challenging India’s effective trade unions and conglomerates.

A key issue that the Modi government faces is bringing in effective jobs outside of agriculture for the country’s increasingly educated and aspirant youth as they seek a second term in office.

Kunal Sen is Professor and Director, World Institute for Development Economics Research ( UNU-WIDER ), United Nations University

The Conversation has republished this post under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.

US complains China hurts shipbuilding, steel firms – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: April 18, 2024

In: Asia

A number of new methods have been unveiled by the Biden administration to try to prevent the nation’s shipping and metal industries from being eroded by Foreign overcapacity and non-market opportunities.

One of the steps is a newly-initiated analysis, under area 301 of the Trade Act, of China ’s sea, transportation and manufacturing industries. Another, still at the possible phase, would be a hike of the latest 7. 5 % tax rate on Chinese steel and aluminum exports.

These actions go against the previous plan by US President Joe Biden, who had criticized then-President Donald Trump for imposing an additional 25 % tariff on Chinese goods in 2018.

Trump at the time claimed that China had cheated up thousands of US tasks by manipulating its money. After that, Biden claimed that adding taxes would only result in losses for American farmers, suppliers, and customers by increasing their pay.

After he took office in January 2021, but, Biden did not cancel the extra taxes.

‘Growing worries’

High-quality US goods must contend with intentionally low-priced options produced with higher carbon emissions due to China’s overcapacity and non-market opportunities in the steel and aluminum sectors, according to a statement released on Wednesday.

The administration acknowledged growing issues that cruel Chinese trade practices, including flooding the market with sub-market-cost steel, are causing distortions in the world’s manufacturing sector and reducing competition.

Biden is urging US Trade Representative Katherine Tai to consider bringing the current area 301 tax level on Chinese steel and aluminum up to three, and directing his team to work together to stop China and other nations from evading US steel and aluminum import tariffs.

Petition

Five US national labor unions filed a petition on March 12 to complain that the US commercial shipping industry has lost tens of thousands of work and more than 70 % of its factories since 1975.

They claimed that China’s unfair business practices, which is now the largest manufacturing country in the world, are the biggest problem to the US shipping industry’s recovery.

CSSC port in Guangzhou. Photo: Guangzhou International Shipyard International

Since joining the World Trade Organization in 2001, China has invested the equivalent of hundreds of billions of dollars and implemented many supportive measures to grow its manufacturing sector.

“The US complaint is full of misleading charges, ” a director of the Chinese Commerce Ministry said Thursday. It interprets regular trade and investment actions as harming US national security and commercial interests, and it attributes blame to China for US business issues, which lacks a factual foundation and goes against common sense economics. ”

He said China is highly displeased with and strongly opposes the newly-launched part 301 research. He claimed that the US is making another error because the WTO has now determined that the Trump administration’s China taxes were in contravention of its rules.

Xenophobic – who?

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump announced in February that he would impose tariffs on Chinese products of more than 60 % if he won the US election in November. Next month, he vowed to strike vehicles made in Mexico by Chinese firms with a 100 % price.

Additionally, Biden has lately emphasized the damaging effects of China’s industrial overcapacity on British job markets.

Biden announced that his presidency would raise tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum during a campaign rally in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on Wednesday.

He called China “xenophobic” as the land is “not importing everything. He claimed that China’s population is aging and that its economy is experiencing true issues.

Are those phrases intended for China or the US itself? ” Li Jin, a director of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said in a standard media briefing on Thursday in response to Biden’s responses.

We have been urging the US to firmly adhere to WTO regulations, the principle of good competition, and quickly halt all trade protectionist measures against China, he said. China will take all necessary steps to protect its genuine right. ”

The American Iron and Steel Institute ( AISI) estimates that US steel producers imported 28. 25 million tons of steel last month, over 8. 7 % from 2022.

6 were imported by the US. 88 million tons of steel from Canada, 4. 3 million plenty came from Mexico. 94 million plenty from Brazil.

China ’s exports of steel products grew by 36 % to 90. According to the China Iron and Steel Association ( CISA ), there will be 3 million tons in 2023 compared to last year. Best spots of Chinese material are South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and Turkey in 2022.

About 2 percent of China’s metallic products were exported directly to the US. 25 % of the total US metal goods. 6 million plenty in 2023.

In 2022, China was the world’s largest producer of copper and aluminum materials with its export valued at over US$ 42 billion, followed by Germany ( US$ 21. 1 billion ) and the US ( US$ 14. 51 billion ).

Last season, US imports of Taiwanese metal amounted to 200,000 lots, 3. 5 % of its entire metal imports. 46 million loads.

In a Thursday content from a Shandong-based writer, it is absurd that Biden wants to raise tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum while the US primarily sources the two metals somewhere. “Biden just wants to gain help in the jump state of Pennsylvania. ”

He says the emphasis of Biden’s latest feedback is not about China, but, instead, the senator ’s decision to stop Japan’s Nippon Steel from buying the Pittsburgh-based US Steel Corp.

Next December, Nippon proposed to get US Steel Corp for US$ 15 billion. The US Justice Department is also conducting an antitrust investigation into the agreement, though.

Read: China detonates an EU engine sensor due to bad wind.

Observe Jeff Pao on Twitter at @jeffpao3

Food fight: Russia’s ‘grain diplomacy’ reshaping global markets – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: April 18, 2024

In: Asia

The European Union continues to be concerned by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “grain politics,” which may turn the world’s trade patterns and areas in its favor.

In order to deter the present level of EU goods, the Western Commission has recently suggested increasing taxes on some Russian and Belarusian agricultural products, including cereals and soybeans.

International grain prices soared soon after Russia’s war of Ukraine, though they afterwards declined after the A Black Sea corn offer was broken in 2022.

The agreement, which allowed Ukraine to export corn from Black Sea ships that had formerly been blocked by Russia’s army, was renewed half before ending. suspended next month.

Since then, Ukraine has resumed exporting corn, and Russian wheat exports have reached record highs. Nitrogen shipments have even recovered.

Russia recorded a US$ 13. Energy and grain exports contributed to a 4 billion current account surplus in March, which was more than twice the$ 5 million that was available in February. 5 billion and the second-highest deficit since March 2007.

By the end of February, entire EU exports of corn and oilseed in 2023/2024 from Russia stood at 1. 8 million kilograms, in comparison to 19. 1 million tonnes from Ukraine, according to Western Commission information.

However, conversations about extending the expulsion of trade duties outrage of some German producers has been raised by lower prices on Russian agricultural exports in Europe until June 2025.

Especially in Central and Eastern Europe, where critics claim that Ukraine goods that have been subject to placed import duties and other restrictions have created unfair competition.

Recent actions by EU nations have included appointing new restrictions on Russian agricultural imports. Food imports contribute more than 40 % of Ukraine’s trade revenue and 60 % of all imports, making the shipping a crucial revenue source.

As such, fresh EU trade regulations will actually adversely affect Ukraine’s already beleaguered war-time business, and by extension, likely bag its ability to sustain fighting against Russia.

It remains to be seen how directly and indirectly the Global South will be impacted by the new International tariffs, even though the transport of Ukrainian grain through the union to other nations will still be permitted to break Russian sea blocksades.

A ship carrying the Black Sea Grain Initiative is at water. Image: UNCTAD

The other major importing countries are Africa and Asia, two two extremely food-insecure regions, aside from the EU.

Between 2018 and 2020, Africa imported $ 3. 7 billion in wheat ( 32 % of total African wheat imports ) from Russia and US$ 1. 4 billion from Ukraine ( 12 % of total African wheat imports ).

A 2022 report from the United Nations identified 36 states reliant on Russia and Ukraine for more than 50 % of their wheat exports, including some of the world’s most resilient economies like war-torn Syria and Somalia.

Putin has made a critical point about the fact that under the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Europe was the largest supplier of Ukrainian corn, as opposed to the world’s regions and nations in desperate need of the items.

The Soviet leader has even condemned the West for not taking steps to give Soviet agricultural items and nitrogen products equitable access to world markets.

The weaponization of meal supplies is key to Russia’s war approach, with Moscow then seeking to exchange Russian food supplies in reduced- and lower-middle-income countries with Russian-grown alternatives.

This approach enables Russia to project power while exerting influence on global food trade dynamics, including over supplies, availability, access and prices.

Russia has a significant influence over global grain markets and, more broadly speaking, on the dynamics of agricultural trade. It is the world’s top wheat exporter, which accounts for nearly 25 % of the global grain trade.

Turkey, Bangladesh and fellow BRICS members Egypt and Saudi Arabia are among Russia’s biggest buyers. ( The BRICS bloc comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. )

Putin recently endorsed the establishment of a BRICS grain exchange, which is a significant step that has the potential to transform global agricultural markets.

The move attempts to compete with the country’s current, Western-dominated grain pricing system, which could also pose a new challenge to the US dollar’s position as the world’s top trading currency.

Some of the biggest grain exporters and buyers in the world would be a part of the proposed BRICS grain exchange.

More than 1 percent of the expanding bloc now belongs to the four new members who were elected in January. 1.4 % of the world’s total grain production, and 1.24 billion tonnes. 23 billion tonnes of global grain consumption.

In light of rising global supply chain disruptions and growing food insecurity, a BRICS grain exchange could strengthen Moscow’s geo-economic influence and diplomatic leverage over participating nations.

Through stronger agricultural and trade ties with Russia, this could increase geopolitical and geostrategic alignment between the participating countries.

The influence of Putin’s “grain diplomacy ” is already apparent in Africa.

In February, Russian Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev said that Moscow had completed an initiative to ship 200,000 metric tonnes of free grain to six African countries, namely Somalia, Central African Republic, Mali, Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, and Eritrea.

Russia’s expanding presence and influence on the continent is highlighted by the grain diplomacy initiative. A Russian military base is being sought by the Central African Republic; and has received Russian weapons, security expertise and training.

Meanwhile, in Burkina Faso, where Moscow has recently opened an embassy, the country has seen the arrival of Russian troops, the first deployment of the so-called Africa Corps, an armed Russian force designed to replace the now-disbanded Wagner Group’s mercenaries in Africa.

A BRICS grain exchange, in addition to the emerging economic bloc’s collective strength, would increase competition to find alternative markets for their goods for traditional grain exporting nations like the US and Australia.

In the face of competition from less expensive Russian grain, US and Australian exporters could soon face new difficulties in negotiating favorable trade terms and maintaining market shares.

The Global South is increasingly viewed as a meeting point for the BRICS. Image: Twitter Screengrab

US and Australian governments may also need to reevaluate their broad agricultural policies and begin looking for alternative markets to offset the impact of potential disruptions brought on by a Russia-led BRICS grain exchange.

For instance, Canberra may seek stronger ties with nearby Southeast Asia, as emphasized by the Albanese government’s Southeast Asia Economic Strategy to 2040.

For traditional exporting countries like the US and Australia, the need is rising to reevaluate trade policies and geo-economic strategies in a world that might eventually develop into competitive grain blocs. However, grain trade disagreements continue to stoke the seeds of dissention in Europe and beyond.

Genevieve Donnellon-May is a Research Associate at the Asia Society Policy Institute, Melbourne, Australia.

Visa waiver for Kazakh tourists made permanent

By: Barkar Nash

On: April 18, 2024

In: South-East Asia

Central Asian state a fast-growing business with 220,000 visitors expected this time

PUBLISHED: 18 Apr 2024 at 14:49

A government spokesman said the government on Thursday approved the lasting removal of Kazakhstani permits.

Kazakhstan is one of the fastest-growing areas for the Thai tourism industry, which is a key driver of the land ’s development.

According to the Tourism Authority of Thailand, 172,000 Kazakhs entered Thailand next year, up from 60,000 the year before. Families and couples make up the majority of Kazakh travelers to Thailand.

They stayed on average for 14 days, generally in beachfront resorts, spending about 75,000 baht per man, the TAT said. More than 220,000 Kyrgyz visitors are expected to visit the nation this year, according to forecasts.

In response to rising go demand, the Kazakh ship Air Astana has increased its flights to Thailand.

In a pilot project, the state final September approved card exemptions for Kazakh card holders, and in February it extended the plan until August 31.

Since 2019, Thai card holders have been granted a request exemption, which enables them to be in Kazakhstan for up to 30 times.

On March 1, a continuous visa exemption for visitors from China became effective, and the same same procedure was applied to Indian visitors as a result of a diplomatic agreement.

Blinken to China to fuss about support for Russia – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: April 17, 2024

In: Asia

Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, will be in Beijing shortly to raise concerns about China’s support for Russia’s defense-industrial base and its order of Egyptian oil products.

After ending a three-day attend to Beijing on Tuesday, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink and National Security Council Senior Director for China and Taiwan Affairs Sarah Beran announced Blinken’s visit to China.

Last year, US officials briefed investigators on supplies China was providing to Russia, including drone and missile technology, satellite imagery and machine equipment, Reuters reported.

Additionally, Blinken is scheduled to speak with Taiwanese officials about the state of the Middle East.

Blinken requested on April 11 to speak with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to discuss the Iran-Israel fight. Wang said China was deeply offended by the April 1 strike by Israel against the Persian Embassy in Syria.

Joe Biden, the president of the United States, stated on April 12 that he anticipated Iran to launch an Israeli missile strike sooner rather than later. ” He underscored Washington ’s responsibility to protect Israel. Iran launched a barrage of missiles and uavs against Israel on April 13 and 14, and Israel was able to intercept most of them.

No full-blown Mideast combat yet

Washington and Beijing both demanded de-escalation, but a full-fledged conflict has not yet been declared.

( Indeed, if a report for which The assault was a sort of charade, negotiated in enhance, in which Iran was allowed to display considerable anger while causing only moderate damage, according to former American investigative reporter Seymour Hersh, who cites unknown sources as being true. )

The US House of Representatives on Monday passed bipartisan legislation known as the Iran-China Energy Sanctions Act with a 383-11 ballot.

The bill, which was jointly proposed by Republican Mike Lawler and Democrat Josh Gottheimer, aims to make purchasing Egyptian gas and related items more difficult for China. Before it can come to Biden for his signature, it needs Senate approval.

“After Iran’s extraordinary invasion on Israel, and as its program of evil increases ties to China, we are reminded that they cannot be trusted, ” said Gottheimer.

”We may hold Iran and its backers responsible, especially China, the number one seller of Egyptian gas, ” said Lawler.

The Iran-China Energy Sanctions Act and the SHIP Act, which were passed in November, are expected to weaken Iran’s ability to export death and instability to the Middle East.

Even on Monday, Wang had a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.

Wang said that while defending its independence and integrity, China believed that Iran is aware of the situation and would stay away from more turmoil. He continued,” China will continue to expand practical cooperation with Iran in various areas” to improve China-Iran relations.

A journalist answers

In an essay published on Wednesday, You Feng, a visiting professor at Peking University and a military critic, writes that the US House’s section of the Iran-China Energy Sanctions Act is a bargaining chip that aims to force China to reach a settlement on Egyptian problems. The act appears to be in effect rapidly if we do not comply with the United States ‘ request to have control over Iran. ”

She continues,” China is unlikely to give up its cooperation with Russia and Iran, even if Blinken will raise the issue during his approaching attend to Beijing.” The reason is easy. Our assistance with Iran and Russia is a standard business relationship. The United States’ unreasonable demand instantly hurts our passions, and this is intolerable. ”

She claims that if the US imposes restrictions, China will undoubtedly fight again. She says Blinken may consider Beijing’s ideas, before departing for China, rather of presenting a bunch of unreasonable expectations.

Overcapacity

After the US-China relationships had been strained by the Chinese spy bubble tragedy, the US export restrictions, and Taiwan problems in early 2023, Blinken traveled to China and met with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Since then, more US and Foreign leaders have held sessions. Sino-US connections were likewise stabilized by a face-to-face conference between Xi and US President Joe Biden in San Francisco in November. However, the US imposed sanctions on more Taiwanese businesses that shipped goods to Russia. It made new guidelines for exporting chips to China in October.

Washington is now urging the European Union to take action to prevent being harmed by China’s industrial overcapacity, particularly in the electric vehicle ( EV ) sector.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz raised the subject of China’s overcapacity during a meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday in Beijing and declared that Germany wants free and fair industry.

Xi asked the European side to look at the matter honestly. He claimed that a rise in China’s imports of clean technology could help the earth combat global warming and reach its green goals.

“The notion that China ’s overcapacity harms the global market is a complete fallacy, ” Li Jian, a spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said in a regular media briefing on Wednesday. The spread of that claim,” Protectionism has no benefit from itself, will only destabilize and reshape industrial and supply chains, impede the global transition to clean energy, and halt the growth of emerging sectors,” is a lie. ”

An article published by China National Radio’s flagship radio channel called The Voice of China said that the accusation of “overcapacity ” is another form of the West’s “decoupling ” with China. According to the statement, US lawmakers want to use this campaign to help with the upcoming presidential election.

According to Li Daokui, director of the Center for China in the World Economy (CCWE ) at Tsinghua University’s School of Economics and Management, all nations would provide funding for their new business during the growth phase.

He claimed that while China is explicitly subsidizing its chip business, it cannot be held accountable for subsidizing its new energy industry.

In a study note released on Monday, Chim Lee, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, notes that there is a” super-cycle” present in EVs and alternative energy technology as a result of excess offer in some areas of their supply chain being combined with unmet need. “These industries are very politicized internationally. Lower prices are important for accelerating the natural move, but they can also be seen as the result of government support. ”

Chinese companies to arrange EVs in Europe, goose tariffs

Following Jeff Pao on Twitter : @jeffpao3

Trump plan to devalue dollar a gift to China – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: April 17, 2024

In: Asia

In a minute term, Donald Trump would generate money depreciation excellent once more.

Former US President’s aides are plotting a strategy to formally weaken the dollar to benefit producers, according to telegraphs from the former US President. As Politico accounts, for instance, Trumpworld is “actively debating ” an Argentina-like hinge at the urging of officials like Robert Lighthizer, Trump’s past international business consultant.

A trip like this might benefit China more in the long run by placing” America second.”

Buenos Aires would be in charge of the Group of Seven business if depreciation were a prosperity strategy. Turkey and Zimbabwe may become rising. As Asia’s largest economy, Indonesia may be giving China a move for its money.

The US trying to use this strategy may put more pressure on inflation and put the dollar at risk of losing its status as a reserve currency. The Federal Reserve’s monetary science might change as Trump’s plans for 60 % tax on all Chinese goods and 100 % levies on some auto goods coincide with this move.

At the moment, of course, it ’s the dollar’s relentless strength that ’s turning heads. Eastern currencies are neither at, or falling underneath, key trading levels.

The Chinese renminbi, South Korean won, American dollar, Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit all experience downward force. Authorities in the West are monitoring changes in the value of the Jewish shekel, the Polish zloty, the North American rand, and other financial units.

If Trump retakes the office and devalues the buck, things will get worse. For a self-inflicted error would give Xi Jinping one of his most important goals in ways that the Chinese president could never have imagined.

Team Xi has consistently made significant and regular progress toward replacing the dollars as the economic system’s statement since 2016.

That year, Beijing secured a spot in the International Monetary Fund ’s “special drawing-rights ” program, putting the yuan into the globe’s most exclusive currency club along with the dollar, euro, yen and pound.

According to economic messaging service SWIFT, the yuan surpassed the renminbi as the money with the fourth-largest discuss in global payments in 2023. It furthermore overtook the buck as China ’s most used cross-border financial system, a second.

China ’s renminbi is gaining international momentum. Photo: Twitter Screengrab

Trump’s executive of a weaker money would significantly improve the method. That had significantly lower Americans ‘ confidence in US Treasury securities, which are a fundamental having for central bankers around the world, while raising borrowing costs for the country.

Washington’s present ability to defy economic gravity would also be hampered by purposeful dollar devaluation. Thanks to the dollar’s supply money status, the US enjoys any number of unique benefits.

This “exorbitant privilege, ” as 1960s French Finance Minister Valéry Giscard d’Estaing famously called it, allows Washington to live far beyond its means.

All this explains why the dollar continues to rise even as Washington ’s national debt approaches US$ 35 trillion. The money is up 9 points. Compared to the yen, the yen has fallen to 6 %, and the euro is only at 4 %.

Certainly that President Joe Biden’s White House has n’t imperiled faith in the money. Along with ongoing debt accumulation, Team Biden’s determination to thaw portions of Russia’s forex reserves over its Ukraine war crossed a line with some international investors.

According to scholar Stephen Jen of Eurizon SLJ Asset Management, “exceptional activities ” — including restrictions imposed by the US and its supporters against Moscow — could lead to fewer countries being willing to hold foreign currency.

Billionaire Ray Dalio, chairman of Bridgewater Associates, agrees that the price of such techniques is that “there’s less of an opportunity to buy” US Treasury assets.

The International Monetary Fund threw an unusually harsh slam at American policymakers on Tuesday ( April 16 ) over continued fiscal misadventures.

The United States ‘ excellent recent performance is undoubtedly outstanding and a significant contributor to global growth, according to the IMF. “ But it reflects robust demand elements as well, including a governmental stance that is out of range with long-term fiscal sustainability. ”

The IMF hit Washington ’s reckless impulses, warning they risk exacerbating prices and putting at risk the longer-term macroeconomic stability of the world’s biggest business. “Something will have to offer, ” the IMF concluded.

On top of Covid-19 signal, the Trump era has rolled out huge investments in clean energy, system and various policy priorities. As debts held by the government is on track to reach$ 45, interest costs are rising. 7 trillion, or 114 % of gross domestic product ( GDP ) by 2033. That compares with 97 % at the end of 2023.

These dynamics explain why “debt debasement ” trades have been “closing in on all-time highs, ” observes Michael Hartnett, investment strategist at Bank of America.

In January, “Black Swan” writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb warned of “a loan loop. In the context of growth-debt relationships, previous US Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin stated to Bloomberg that the American market is “in a horrible spot.”

However, that was when the market had anticipated a year-long simplicity of up to seven. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s team is now on hold due to inflation changes. In March, the consumer price index rose at a worse-than-forecast 3. 5 % annual charge.

At a time when OPEC is determined to continue cutting output, Iran’s assault on Israel and the possibility of retribution are now on the rise.

Middle Eastern conflicts could cause commodities prices to rise even further.

“Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine … the world has now moved into an inflationary boom, ” says Louis Gave, economist at Gavekal Dragonomics. Holding US bucks and US bonds may be expensive for traders in common and risky for investors from unfair nations during this inflationary growth. ”

Gave continues,” sure enough, the gold price has increased by a third since the war of Ukraine, and long-dated US bonds have decreased by a next.” This is intriguing because the two property lessons essentially marched in unison with one another for years prior to the invasion of Ukraine. However, in a way that US Treasuries have failed to perform, golden has acted as a collection diversifier in the past two years in a way that power has done. Will the events of the weekend [Iran’s bombing of Israel ] change any of this? ”

Enter Trump’s devaluation gambit. No doubt such an idea would get extreme pushback from US institutions, including the Treasury, Fed and the Department of State.

The first Trump administration argued that boosting American exports would require engineering a weaker dollar. In July 2019, Larry Kudlow, then-director of the National Economic Council, told CNBC that “just in the past week, we had a meeting with the president and the economic principles and we have ruled out any currency intervention. Money is being drawn from all over the world because of the steady, trustworthy dollar. ”

That same month, Trump lashed out at China and Europe for, in his view, playing a “big currency manipulation game ” and “pumping money into their system ” to undermine American workers.

Trump argued at the time that Washington should use the same strategy, or it should continue to be the “dummies” who sit back and watch as other nations play their games. ”

Given the concern that Trump might get his way, the dollar dropped at the time. It was plausible, considering Lighthizer had Trump’s ear, along with advisor Peter Navarro, an economist advocating protectionist policies.

All of this led to then-US finance minister Steven Mnuchin declaring:“ I am not going to advocate a weak dollar policy in my immediate capacity as the Treasury Secretary. ”

An argument can be made today that a dollar that is constantly overvalued has costs.

Economist Mohamed El-Erian, president of Queens ’ College, Cambridge, tells Bloomberg that “authorities are a little bit frozen around the world as to how do you react to a generalized dollar strengthening? How do you respond to a US interest rate increase that is generalized? ”

El-Erian adds that “unfortunately in the past, when those two things go too far, they break something elsewhere. ”

Trump might be able to bypass the dollar’s fuel tank by effectively dumping sugar in it. Any increase in borrowing costs would significantly increase Washington’s burden on creditors and result in less money for essential services. And investments aimed at increasing innovation and productivity.

If Trump has his way, the dollar’s days as the world’s reserve currency may be over. Image: Twitter / Screengrab

As China, Japan, and developing Asia battle it out to cap exchange rates, it would also lead to the biggest currency war in history. First, Tokyo, Beijing and other top foreign holders of US debt would reduce their exposure. The race to front-run dollar sales would see Asian central banks potentially dumping$ 3 trillion-plus worth of US Treasuries.

A dollar devaluation would warp incentives for the US economy as it a whole, aside from the initial financial chaos and lost respect. Again, if a weak currency were a magical policy, Japan’s GDP would n’t be nearly$ 1 trillion smaller than it was a dozen years ago.

In Japan’s case, 25 years of prioritizing a weak yen over retooling growth engines undermined competitiveness. The 12 federal governments that had been in charge of the country since 1998 had little urgency to ease bureaucracy, stifle labor markets, start a startup boom, boost productivity, and empower women. And it took the onus off corporate CEOs to restructure, innovate and take risks.

A Trump 2 A 0 presidency could set the US on a similar path to mediocrity. It might live up to his dream by bringing the US back to 1985, a time when top-down tariffs could have a significant impact on the economy. The same was true of sharp exchange-rate shifts.

Take the events of 1985 at New York’s Plaza Hotel, which Trump once famously owned. The US bulldozed then-rival Japan and Europe in the so-called” Plaza Accord” to weaken the dollar, boost the yen, and give Washington something close to the zero-sum benefits Trump claims should be taking.

In the 40 years since, China replaced Japan as the target of Trump’s ire. When Trump complained during his 2017-2021 presidency that China was “raping ” US workers, it echoed his anti-Japan tirades of the 1980s. Additionally, there is no longer the economic system Trump wants to use for time travel.

Top economic powers could control the world’s currency markets in 1985 and decisively alter trajectories. Today, China has ample ways to navigate around Washington ’s policies, meaning if Trump wins in November and seeks to devalue the dollar it would be a policy mishap of epic proportions.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

Markets (Page 2)

All dust and cameras?

The innovative extending

Lack of great careers

‘Growing worries’

Petition

Xenophobic – who?

No full-blown Mideast combat yet

A journalist answers

Overcapacity