Prabowo’s big chance to be a global green leader – Asia Times

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Indonesia entered a bold new era with the October 20 inauguration of President Prabowo Subianto.

The leader’s ascent, rooted in a military career as a special forces commander, embodies a deep commitment to national sovereignty. But in a world where threats are as environmental as they are geopolitical, sovereignty must evolve beyond traditional defense.

So will Prabowo’s Indonesia, the world’s fourth-most populous nation and a vital maritime axis, merely drift with the currents of global change or will it seize the helm and steer toward more assertive environmental leadership and sustainable prosperity?

Indonesia’s vast archipelago loses an estimated US$4 billion annually due to illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing, accounting for about 17% of global IUU fishing losses. It’s a crisis that depletes marine biodiversity and jeopardizes the livelihoods of over 2.6 million Indonesians in the fisheries sector.

As the nation’s maritime wealth is stolen, impinged on by illegal fishing boats including from China, the impacts are being felt in terms of economic potential and food security.

To reverse this tide, Indonesia must embrace advanced maritime surveillance and stringent enforcement, as demonstrated by Norway’s success in curbing illegal fishing. By adopting cutting-edge technologies like satellite monitoring and automated identification systems, Indonesia can reclaim control over its rich marine territories.

Strengthening legal frameworks and fostering regional cooperation through ASEAN will further amplify these efforts, positioning Indonesia as a guardian of marine resources and reinforcing sovereignty in a tangible way.

Simultaneously, Indonesia’s pursuit of economic growth through industrial downstreaming has transformed its abundant nickel reserves into a booming export industry. In 2015, Indonesia’s nickel exports were valued at only 45 trillion rupiah (US$2.9 billion).

However, following the implementation of downstream processing policies, the figure surged to 520 trillion rupiah ($33 billion) by 2023. This economic boon, however, has caused significant environmental risks.

Energy-intensive smelting processes, primarily powered by coal, contribute substantially to greenhouse gas emissions, undermining both global climate efforts and Indonesia’s own environmental sustainability.

Here, Indonesia faces a pivotal choice: continue on an environmentally unsustainable path or pivot toward a renewable energy revolution. The country has an estimated 400 gigawatts (GW) of technical potential for renewable-based power generation.

Solar alone could contribute half of this potential, while hydropower and geothermal could deliver up to 75 GW and 29 GW, respectively. Yet, renewables currently account for only 13% of the national energy mix.

By investing in renewable infrastructure and incentivizing clean energy integration in industrial processes, Indonesia could emulate China’s successful model of aligning economic growth with environmental stewardship.

To accelerate this transformation, Indonesia must adopt strategic policies such as feed-in tariffs, tax incentives for renewable projects and the gradual phasing out of fossil fuel subsidies.

To his credit, Subianto has said he plans to launch a green economy fund by selling carbon emission credits from projects such as rainforest preservation, aiming to raise $65 billion by 2028, one of his advisors told Reuters last month.

Establishing green industrial zones powered entirely by renewables could not only reduce carbon emissions but also attract global investors committed to sustainable practices. This shift will require confronting entrenched fossil fuel interests and mobilizing public support—a test of leadership that could ultimately define Prabowo’s legacy.

At the heart of this agenda is the imperative to improve the lives of all Indonesians. Sustainable development must be inclusive, ensuring that economic progress does not come at the expense of environmental integrity or social equity.

Engaging local communities in renewable energy projects can create jobs, reduce energy poverty and stimulate rural economies. Community-based initiatives, such as micro-hydropower plants and solar cooperatives, empower citizens and distribute the benefits of growth more equitably, fostering a sense of ownership and shared prosperity.

Indonesia’s strategic position grants it significant influence over regional stability and environmental stewardship. By championing sustainable practices and leading collaborative efforts to address climate change, Prabowo’s administration can elevate Indonesia’s global standing.

The choices made today are critical—not just for Indonesia but for an entire region grappling with the dual challenges of economic development and environmental degradation. Indonesia’s actions could set a precedent for others, amplifying its impact far beyond its borders.

President Prabowo’s inauguration represents more than a change in leadership; it is an opportunity to redefine Indonesia’s role in the 21st century.

By boldly integrating environmental sustainability with economic ambition, Indonesia can demonstrate that prosperity and ecological responsibility are not opposing forces but rather complementary goals.

The path forward will be challenging, but with decisive action and visionary leadership, Indonesia can transform potential into tangible progress. Prabowo has the opportunity to transform Indonesia into a beacon of sustainable development at the heart of Asia. And the time to act is now.

Setyo Budiantoro is a fellow at the IDEAS Global Program, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), and Nexus Strategist at The Prakarsa.

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Japan’s LDP rocked and roiled in an election earthquake – Asia Times

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As political miscalculations go, it’s hard to top Shigeru Ishiba’s decision to hold a snap election Sunday, just 30 days after his own shock rise to Japan’s premiership.

Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost its majority for only the third time since 1955. But this latest indignity for a party that long took for granted the priorities of Japan’s 125 million people could be the most impactful yet.

Ishiba’s blunder, and the political upheaval it’s causing, come amid a bewildering array of headwinds zooming the nation’s way.

They include slowing growth at home, China’s downshift, North Korea’s provocations and the increasing odds Americans will return Donald Trump and his trade wars to the White House.

It comes as Japanese inflation outpaces wages at a moment when the Bank of Japan mulls whether to continue hiking interest rates. It comes as investors assess whether the Nikkei 225 Stock Average’s surge to record highs is sustainable as policy instability reigns in Tokyo.

At the very least, Ishiba seems more destined than ever for short-timer status as Japanese leader following Sunday’s disastrous election showing for his LDP.

“Japan now enters a period of political uncertainty about whether a new coalition government can be formed,” says David Boling, analyst at Eurasia Group. Economist Takeshi Yamaguchi at Morgan Stanley MUFG adds that “political uncertainty will remain high in the near term.”

Granted, one silver lining for the LDP is that opposition parties didn’t join forces to win a majority or cobble together a governing coalition. Yet the best-case scenario for the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito is to find additional seats via a third party.

Still the damage has been done, particularly to Ishiba and his ability to retain the premiership or claim he has a mandate to lead.

Though predecessor Fumio Kishida stuck around for three years and mentor Shinzo Abe lasted nearly eight, most Japanese prime ministers get 12 months to make their mark – and most don’t.

Chalk it up to leaders spending so much time keeping their jobs there’s no time to do their jobs. The cycle, especially prevalent since the mid-1990s, seems certain to come for Ishiba. Even before Sunday’s repudiation from voters, Ishiba had suffered one of the most precipitous drops in public approval political observers had ever seen.

In late September, when Ishiba shocked the political establishment by navigating past the two front runners for the premiership, Ishiba enjoyed support rates north of 50%. But after four weeks of policy U-turns and managerial chaos, his numbers fell into the 20s.

That’s far from what Kishida had expected when he stepped aside last month. With his own approval in the low 20s amid scandals and soft economic conditions, Kishida opted to let his party head into Sunday’s contest with a fresh face.

It surprised many that this meant swapping one 67-year-old conservative with another. Ishiba’s man-of-the-people persona led LDP bigwigs to hope he might revive the party’s image.

Instead, reality caught up with Ishiba – and fast. For years, Boling notes, Ishiba polled very favorably with the public.

He benefited from being seen as an outsider within the LDP because he was willing to criticize the party. That made him unpopular with many LDP lawmakers but popular with the public.

But “since becoming prime minister, he has made some missteps that have opened him to attack,” Boling notes. That Sunday’s results mean Ishiba is “weakened” and that the “odds would be against him rebounding.”

If Ishiba does stay in, he’ll be busy struggling to save his premiership. Odds are he’ll be too preoccupied to address the economic headwinds racing Japan’s way.

Chief among them is an economy fast losing altitude. This might come as quite a surprise to LDP elders who encouraged Kishida to stand down.

Back in mid-September, when these machinations were in motion, the party figured the economy was on sound footing.

At the time, the Nikkei index was testing all-time highs amid stable economic growth, 10 years of corporate governance reforms were gaining traction and hopes were high that wages gains would accelerate.

Earlier this year, labor unions scored the biggest wage bump in 33 years. That fueled optimism that the “virtuous cycle” Tokyo had craved for decades had arrived.

All this encouraged the BOJ to begin exiting 25 years of zero interest rates and quantitative easing. On July 31, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s team hiked short-term rates to 0.25%, the highest since 2008. That sent the yen skyrocketing.

Since then, a clear deceleration in retail sales, exports, industrial production, machine tool orders and other sectors has Team Ueda hitting the pause button on additional tightening moves.

It also had Ishida’s government pivoting to the kinds of short-term stimulus maneuvers he claimed his government would avoid. A long-time fiscal hawk, Ishiba also was a proponent of higher rates and a stronger yen. Not anymore.

Ishiba’s reversal on these and other policies has sent the yen tumbling past the 150-to-the-dollar mark. It’s also generating increased volatility in Japanese government bond yields.

For one thing, Ishiba’s government having to rely on opposition parties to retain power makes it harder to champion fiscal consolidation and monetary liquidity normalization. For another, the clock is now ticking faster and faster for Japanese leaders to act on implementing economic reforms.

The LDP’s stumble could not be worse timed for Asia’s second-biggest economy. The export boost on which Tokyo was betting is in growing doubt as Chinese growth slows. China is slow-walking moves to address a property crisis that many compare to Japan’s 1990s bad-loan debacle.

Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, notes that Beijing is “trying to talk the talk, with more noise about stabilizing the property market.” Generally speaking, though, Innes says, “China’s property mess isn’t something that can be patched up with a few speeches and half-baked measures.”

Macquarie Bank economist Larry Hu adds that measures taken so far “may not be enough to turn the housing market around.”

Meanwhile, Germany’s recession weighs on Europe’s prospects. The US is showing signs of wear. The geopolitical environment is hardly ideal as Middle East tensions flare and Russia’s Ukraine invasion drags on.

The rising odds that Trump might be re-elected on November 5 to supersize trade wars is a major source of global uncertainty.

Amid such uncertainty, investors have valid reasons to question Tokyo’s ability to get the reform process back on track. In the 12 years since the LDP returned to power, few big-picture upgrades have been implemented.

In 2012, the Prime Minister Abe pledged to modernize labor markets, reduce bureaucracy, increase innovation and productivity, empower women and strengthen corporate governance. Abe succeeded with this last endeavor.

The Nikkei’s surge to record highs is partly a result of steps to increase returns on equity, give shareholders a louder voice and diversify boardrooms. It’s also the result of ultra-low interest rates.

Yet surging stocks have meant little to the average Japanese household. Wages have generally lagged the rate of inflation. Japan ranks 30th among the 38 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) members in productivity.

What so-called Abenomics did, ultimately, was prove that “trickle-down economics” still doesn’t work. And that sporadic stimulus packages don’t alter economic trajectories nearly as much as structural changes. Now, the clock is already ticking as Japan’s latest government inherits a uniquely lopsided economic trajectory.

On the one hand, the inflation Tokyo had been craving for 25 years is here. And the BOJ is finally trying to normalize a super-aggressive interest-rate regime. On the other, that very rising-price dynamic is wrecking household and business confidence. It makes Japan the economic equivalent of the dog that caught the car. Consumers find themselves missing deflation, which many viewed as a stealth tax cut.

This balancing act proved too much for Kishida, who took power in early October 2021. Ostensibly, Kishida’s dismal approval ratings reflected political funding scandals within his LDP. In reality, it was mostly an underperforming economy that ended his tenure.

Like his mentor Abe, Kishida did himself no favors by prioritizing foreign policy over reforms. Ishiba, a former defense minister, irked voters by appearing to do the same. An old-school China hawk who favors creating an “Asian NATO,” Ishiba seemed more interested in creating a bulwark against Beijing than tackling kitchen-table issues.

Now, with political winds shifting, Tokyo seems even more captive to events in Beijing and Washington.

Recently, Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s government conceded that the globe’s No 2 economy is in trouble.

Earlier this month, Beijing unveiled aggressive stimulus measures to support an economy grappling with a deepening property crisis. The People’s Bank of China announced its first simultaneous cut in key short-term rates and banks’ reserve requirements since at least 2015.

Mainland stocks have tried to rally on the news. And PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng is hinting at further cuts in the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves.

The faster Beijing puts a floor under the economy, the more Japan’s prospects will improve. China is by far Japan’s biggest trading partner. Having the top customer for your goods battling deflation is rarely a plus for economic confidence.

On top of that, the specter of Trump trade 2.0 is keeping many Tokyo officials up at night. Preparing for a Trump or Kamala Harris administration will be a major preoccupation for LDP officials. Yet not as great as figuring out whether the nation’s dominant party can find a way forward. With, or without, Ishiba in the mix.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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Delay for N1 expressway tunnel option

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PUBLISHED : 28 Oct 2024 at 04:59

Foundations for a long-delayed elevated N expressway are visible on Kaset-Nawamin Road. (File photo)
Foundations for a long-delayed elevated N expressway are visible on Kaset-Nawamin Road. (File photo)

The Expressway Authority of Thailand (Exat) is likely to scrap a proposal to build an underground route to replace a controversial section of the N1 Expressway development after questions were raised about its financial viablility.

Exat governor Surachet Laophulsuk said Exat’s board has acknowledged the agency’s decision to delay the project which is based on the findings of a study.

Although the equity internal rate of return (EIRR) is estimated at 19.2%, the financial internal rate of return (FIRR) is negative, indicating high project costs, he said.

Mr Surachet said the costs, estimated at 50 billion baht, are high because the project involves building an underground route to minimise environment impacts. However, as the project’s financial return rate is negative, the project should be delayed unless the route is changed to an elevated route, he said.

The matter will be forwarded to the Transport Ministry and cabinet. Mr Surachet also said Exact plans to seek cabinet approval later this week for two other projects: an 11.3km section of an expressway known as N2 Expressway and a 3.98km tunnel in Phuket.

The N2 Expressway project (Prasertmanukit Road-Outer Eastern Ring Road) is estimated to cost 16.96 billion baht while the tunnel linking Kathu with Patong in Phuket is estimated to cost 16.19 billion baht.

Based on the feasibility of the N1 Expressway scheme, the total project costs are estimated at 49.22 billion baht. Of this amount, 44.5 billion will be spent on construction, 3.6 billion baht on land expropriation costs, and 1.06 billion baht on construction supervision.

At a public hearing on July 13, most participants opposed the underground route due to high costs and scepticism the project could actually alleviate traffic congestion.

The underground route was chosen to replace the controversial section following discussions with Kasetsart University and communities along the route.

Exat previously said the agency had considered several aspects, including engineering, investment costs, and the environmental impacts, and found the underpass to be the most feasible option.

The 6.3-kilometre structure would run along Ngam Wong Wan Road via Phongphet intersection, Bang Khen intersection, and Kaset intersection to Prasertmanukit Road before connecting with the N2 Expressway.

The N1 Expressway is expected to shorten travel time from the eastern part of the Bangkok to the western part by 30 minutes.

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Experts call for the reimagination of education for youth and lifelong learners

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At the third International Conference on Equitable Education, UNESCO, the Equitable Education Fund ( Thailand ), and partners work together to create more affordable and sustainable educational systems.

PUBLISHED: 21 Oct 2024 at 04: 10

NEWSPAPER SECTION: News

Bangkok, October 21, 2018- The third International Conference on Equitable Education, held by UNESCO, the Equitable Education Fund ( EEF), Thailand, and colleagues from 18 to 19 October in Nonthaburi, Thailand, was at the forefront of an immediate call for a creative reimagining of educational methods for all and the development of longtime learning.
Bangkok, October 21, 2018- The third International Conference on Equitable Education, held by UNESCO, the Equitable Education Fund ( EEF), Thailand, and colleagues from 18 to 19 October in Nonthaburi, Thailand, was at the forefront of an immediate call for a creative reimagining of educational methods for all and the development of longtime learning.

Bangkok, October 21, 2018- The third International Conference on Equitable Education, held by UNESCO, the Equitable Education Fund ( EEF), Thailand, and colleagues from 18 to 19 October in Nonthaburi, Thailand, was at the forefront of an immediate call for a creative reimagining of educational methods for all and the development of longtime learning.

Held under the style” Reimagining Education, Co-Creating Lifelong Learning for Youth and Adults”, the meeting drew about 260 on-site attendees – among them training experts, policymakers and children leaders – with over 3, 000 nevertheless joining online, to focus on versatile learning opportunities, skills development for all, and international collaboration.

A whole-of-society approach is essential to creating more equitable teaching methods and making longtime learning available to everyone, according to Marina Patrier, Deputy Director of the UNESCO Regional Office in Bangkok. ” In a world where technology and business evolve so fast, lifelong learning is essential”, she stressed, while citing the vital importance of teacher’s tones to modern policy growth.

Thailand’s Deputy Minister of Education, Surasak Phancharoenworakul, underscored the importance of regional collaboration to ensure that all children have access to quality education and lifelong learning opportunities. ” It requires our joint efforts to reach our shared goals”, he stated, while underscoring Thailand’s commitment to the region’s educational equity agenda.

The conference also gave the inclusion of youth as a crucial issue a top priority. The Rohingya Mayafunor Collaborative Network’s co-founder of Youth Empowerment and Digital Literacy, Nurhayati Sultan, described how refugees are denied access to education and called for their education. Nada Binroheem, president of the Children and Youth Council of Thailand, spoke about the unique challenges faced by youth from migrant and poor Muslim communities in Pattani Province, Thailand, suggesting that they be welcomed to work with education policymakers.

Embracing the perspective of youth informed the remarks of Severine Leonardi, Deputy Representative of UNICEF Thailand, who outlined five key policy priorities: student-centered learning, inclusive digital learning, investment in early years, skills-based education, and strengthened teacher training.

Other key themes included the need for innovative and adaptable learning, the potential of technology as a tool for creating a more inclusive learning environment, and the need to collaborate with local communities to advance local solutions and sustainable development.

The Southeast Asian Ministers of Education Organization ( SEAMEO ) Secretariat’s Deputy Director for Programme and Development, John Arnold Siena, argued that “using technology can significantly improve access to education for marginalized children” should be the main focus of investments in education. He remarked that “empowering communities with targeted support is essential to ensure that solutions are inclusive and effective for all.”

Cahyo Prihadi, Director of Monitoring and Evaluation at the Programme Management Office of Kartu Prakerja, Republic of Indonesia, observed that technology plays a vital role in enhancing program outcomes, saying,” Reducing inequality in lifelong learning requires a comprehensive, customer-centric approach that addresses access, relevance, and inclusivity”.

Dr Kraiyos Patrawart, Managing Director of EEF, called the event” a significant milestone in promoting equitable education”. The Equitable Education Alliance could serve as a forum for a collective practice for equitable education, despite the” All for Education” movement’s emphasis on engagement for impact. ” We will continue to work toward equitable education.”

The series ‘ third conference came after it was launched in 2021, making it the third one. A full version of the conference’s outcome document will be available on the conference website at https ://afe2024.eef.or.th/ at a later date.

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Intel forsaking its past and losing its future – Asia Times

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Intel, again among the country’s leading tech firms, is struggling. The US intel, which was founded as a start-up in 1968, has since grown to success thanks to wise business and technological choices combined with proper product investments.

The business immediately established itself as a leader in the market through the creation of intelligent equipment and proper, cutting-edge products under the leadership of a beautiful founding team.

But those brilliance time are largely over. In a time filled with fresh opportunities, Intel is quickly losing ground to international rivals as it struggles to remain one of the world’s top chipmakers.

Some economical factors have hampered Intel’s position, but perhaps the most significant has been the bank’s change in strategy.

Intel’s owners were beautiful strategists focused on maintaining global tech leadership through fast, forward-looking investments. This goal, met time and time again, achieved remarkable monetary returns.

Then came along exceedingly clever foreign competitors that targeted Intel’s primary products, decreasing their success. Older manager’s response has been to expand the company’s product profile through acquisitions aimed at increasing profitability, frequently at the price of domestic efforts to improve production performance and new product development.

The outcomes of this proper change are then obvious. Intel’s production performance has clearly slipped vis-à-vis rivals like Taiwan’s TSMC and South Koreas Samsung, while several, if any, of the acquisitions have built new business speed or organization profitability.

In the meantime, Intel has largely missed the boat with regard to the phenomenal growth of AI, leaving ambitious rivals like Nvidia and perhaps AMD with the majority of the newly emerging novel chip markets.

Intel also has a chance to recover given its abundant resources and innovative federal support provided by the CHIPS Act. However, the business has previously already paid a high price by overlooking and possibly forsaking the roots of its first success in search of simple consolidation victories when faced with fierce new competition.

To be sure, Intel is not alone. There are several curriculum examples of US technology companies that once had a winning reputation but lost their way as a result of poor proper decisions.

Consider, for example, the RCA Corporation. Founded in 1919, the business grew into one of the nation’s leading tech firms, enabled and driven by RCA Laboratories ‘ amazing history of research-driven development.

At its innovative peak, RCA’s patent portfolio reached across consumer electronics (televisions ), military systems ( radar and space satellite communications ), semiconductors ( invention of CMOS ) and lasers – to name but a few.

CEO David Sarnoff epitomized RCA’s unique spirit and enthusiasm for releasing innovative systems products to the general public. His plan succeeded in building a multibillion-dollar income business, while often with unequal success.

Through acquisitions of businesses that were less prone to the fluctuations and fluctuations of technology, his successors as CEO sought to increase the company’s profitability. The business expanded into other businesses, including those involving food, car rentals, finance, and various industries, at the expense of its main technology lines during that geopolitical change. &nbsp, &nbsp,

These extensive expansions did not go as well as anticipated, leading to the merger of RCA and General Electric, which ultimately became a mediocre-performing company.

The importance of senior administration perception is the subject of this lesson. Organizations that were founded on technology and innovation must concentrate on the factors that contributed to their original success.

In my experience with private capital, tech companies ‘ ability to understand markets, manage resources, and find and retain the most talented employees who are knowledgeable about the vision of their company depends on these factors.

Contest is a biological phenomenon, especially in the technology sector. Effective tech firms are aware of this and are equipped with the tools necessary to compete and triumph. Intel’s top managers may be wise to take notice.

Henry Kressel is a technician, engineer writer and business head. He has invested in tech companies for a long time in private ownership.

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CNA Explains: What you need to know about the Income-Allianz deal being blocked by Singapore

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When it was founded in 1970 as NTUC Income Insurance Co-operative Limited, Income was a co-operative.

When a co-op is liquidated, members of it are entitled to receive their cash and dividends up to a cap under Area 88 of the Co-operative Societies Act.

Any surplus funds will be transferred to the Cooperative Societies Liquidation Account ( CSLA ), which would benefit the co-op sector in this country, after reaching this cap.

Instead of joining the CSLA, Income sought and received an provision from the Act that allowed it to take over about S$ 2 billion in surplus to the new business entity in 2022.

But, the proposed Income-Allianz offer sought to minimize the money held by Income, returning some S$ 1.85 billion to owners within three years.

According to Mr. Tong, this proposed money reduction so soon after the transaction “runs store” to the idea for the exemption being granted.

” It is also not clear what Revenue might do after the money recovery, for example, to change or reduce its healthcare profile, and what impact this could have on policy holders”, he said.

Why lower capital?

When corporatising in 2022, Income argued that it&nbsp, was &nbsp, subject to similar regulatory requirements, market competition and issues like other commercial carriers, despite being able to touch only on investment from its members.

Corporatization may give it access to additional funding to expand its business, including introducing new electronic products and expanding beyond Singapore.

Removal of investment does not automatically make the company weaker, Associate Professor Koh SzeKee, chairman of the company, contact and style cluster in Singapore Institute of Technology, told CNA.

” On the contrary, it does improve it by ensuring money is more quickly deployed, thus enhancing earnings to shareholders”, he said.

For example, if a business has built up extra cash resources, but it is not invested due to a lack of immediate prospects, holding the amounts could lead to a lower return on equity and discontent among shareholders, he explained.

” Returning this extra cash to shareholders allows them to put their money where they can, in order to earn higher returns,” said Assoc Prof Koh.

What differences exist between social and prudential considerations?

If the deal had been approved, Mr. Tong had also noted that” there are no clear binding provisions or structural protections in the deal to ensure that Income’s social mission will be discharged.”

While prudential considerations emphasize financial health, risk management, and operational sustainability, social missions examine specific social, environmental, or ethical goals and effects, with less emphasis on profit maximization or financial returns, according to Assoc Prof. Koh.

Although there may be tensions, he said,” the relationships between prudential considerations and social mission can be complementary.”

Being financially stable over the long term, such as being able to attract funding or use resources wisely, is equally important for socially engaged organizations.

Assoc Prof Koh said that “potential tensions arise when certain financial goals or risk management strategies could lead to decisions that reduce or undermine the social impact of a mission, such as raising prices or cutting costs to improve financial sustainability and making essential services less accessible.

What will now befalling Income and its policyholders?

Existing Income policyholders should not be worried, according to Mr. Chee, because MAS will continue to regulate the insurer as a licensee.

According to him,” Income has sufficient resources to meet the required capital adequacy ratio, which means it has sufficient capital to meet its liabilities and pay out to policyholders.”

Following Mr Tong’s announcement, Income said it respects the government’s decision and appreciates its understanding of both the purpose of its 2022 corporatisation exercise and its plans to partner with Allianz.

The voluntary cash general offer from Allianz is pre-conditional and subject to regulatory approval, according to Income Insurance.

In light of the most recent developments, Income Insurance will examine and consider the upcoming Insurance Act amendments and work closely with relevant stakeholders to study and decide the next course of action.

Mr. Tong had stated that the government would be willing to make new arrangements if the issues raised were fully addressed.

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Smart money’s looking beyond China stimulus debate – Asia Times

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Businesses are resonating as a result of tension between President Xi Jinping’s long-term policy objectives and investor demand for short-term signal as Chinese securities recover.

The fight between the long and short viewpoints is not novel. For years, the” Washington Consensus” group has advised Beijing to adjust its unstable economy, which free market activists see as very reliant on giant, opaque state-owned companies and the vast incentives that sustain them.

However, restless investors who appear increasingly unwilling to give Beijing the room it needs to re-enter and overhaul its US$ 17 trillion market have frequently clashed with Xi’s work to do just that.

Until then, apparently. The conflict between Team Xi and anxious industry was clearly visible over the weekend.

Unplanned press conference by Xi’s Ministry of Finance ( MOF ) on Saturday ( 12 October ) sparked a frenzy with markets anticipating a potential significant new stimulus boost to help China reach its 20 % economic growth target for 2024 and new measures to combat the country’s increasingly ingrained deflation.

Futures markets sagged when MOF focused on larger transformation designs and declined to provide a certain amount label on the hung signal. But by Monday, companies rose.

Investors came to the conclusion that the MOF’s most recent statements reflect the pragmatism markets have long-craved from Xi’s inner circle, even if Beijing is n’t using its massive stimulus “bazooka.”

The trip news, according to economist Harry Murphy Cruise at Moody’s Analytics, “tied most of the appropriate boxes, but it lacked information on the size and range of new spending,” noting that” we anticipate more supports to be announced through the remainder of the year.”

Economist Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, says,” these policies are in the right direction”.

There is still a strong argument that Chinese stock valuations are now fairly valued despite the recent rally, which was buoyant from the US$ 6.5 trillion rout dating back to 2021. In addition, Chinese shares are currently trading at significantly lower multiples than those in the US, where new market highs are being made daily.

The MOF press conference was still a surprise to us, according to economist Jing Liu from HSBC Holdings, despite the lack of significant fiscal stimulus. ” The policy pivot looks very much here to stay, with the rising risk appetite having a significant impact on both the stock and property markets.”

Odds are, though, that this is a trust-but-verify moment for markets. Bullish investors are partially reacting to Beijing’s hints of further support for the troubled housing market and highly indebted local governments with new, targeted fiscal-spending jolts.

More and more stimulus is becoming more popular. In September, Chinese exports and imports came in weaker than expected, raising new doubts about the economy’s main bright spot. Overseas shipments, for example, rose just 2.4 % year on year, a sharp fall from August’s 8.7 % increase.

According to Capital Economics ‘ economist Zichun Huang, “further ahead… growing trade barriers are likely to become an increasing constraint” on export and economic growth.

Although the move from Washington to Seoul may cause more demand to be made in some of China’s key trading partners, according to economists, political restrictions on products like electric cars and other green technologies are causing new headwinds.

However, punters are beginning to realize that Xi’s inner circle is almost blatantly focused on bringing China into the so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution by accelerating the transition from the high-end to highly-value technology-driven industries.

Team Xi is more interested in the long-term benefits of tech-driven economic reinvention and future dominance of the industries. Although annual growth targets matter in the short run.

Investors are digging deeper into Chinese stock valuations in comparison to other top global markets and recognizing new value as a result of these caveats.

In the most recent Global Risk-Reward Monitor newsletter, Asia Times business editor David Goldman argues that with a price-earnings ( P/E ) ratio of 11, China’s stock market “is a bit too low”.

But at the same time, he notes,” there is no reason to expect Chinese valuations to approach the S&amp, P ( 500’s ) valuation of 22 times ( forward ) earnings”.

One reason, he argues, is that China’s government has gone out of its way to prevent and reverse the formation of market-skewing tech monopolies like Google, Microsoft or Amazon.

” No surprise, then, that Alibaba trades at a P/E of 27 after the run-up of the past month, versus Amazon’s 43″, Goldman writes. We have long argued that given subdued but consistent economic growth, China’s equity market valuation was too low. The Chinese market’s valuation seems more reasonable than that of the United States after the rally last month.

That’s not to say Beijing is n’t cognizant of the moment’s sensitivity. In a note to clients, economists at Morgan Stanley say this moment represents” Beijing’s second chance to convince the market” after a rough several days.

However, Xi may have found the balance between acting as a facilitator and a facilitator while also showing restraint.

According to Hui Shan, an economist at Goldman Sachs,” the most recent round of China stimulus clearly indicates that policymakers have turned to cyclical policy management and increased their focus on the economy.”

China will increase by 4.9 % this year, according to the US investment bank, up from an earlier forecast of 4.7 %. For 2025, Goldman Sachs sees growth of 4.7 %, up from an earlier 4.3 % forecast.

One source of Goldman Sachs ‘ optimism: MOF officials plan to deploy 2.3 trillion yuan ($ 325 billion ) of special local government bond funds in the fourth quarter of this year.

This, Hui says, suggests a more “back-loaded” public spending plan, paving the way for a bigger rebound than his bank had previously expected.

Last week, China ‘s&nbsp, National Development and Reform Commission announced pre-approval of&nbsp, 200 billion yuan&nbsp, ($ 28.2 billion ) worth of 2025 investment projects. It is seen by Huawei’s team as a clear government effort to help China meet its 5 % GDP goal this year.

Carlos&nbsp, Casanova, economist at Union Bancaire Privée, notes that investors are taking solace in Finance Minister Lan Fo’an highlighting that officials have a “fairly large” capacity to increase spending if needed.

That includes “implementing some of the most ambitious measures in years aimed at revitalizing the struggling property market, recapitalizing large banks,” according to Casanova, “everyone of which is crucial for addressing China’s ongoing structural challenges.”

However, Casanova adds,” the timeline for fiscal measures remains uncertain. The upcoming National People’s Congress Standing Committee meeting, scheduled for late October or early November, may require significant announcements to wait until.

The MOF “has given as strong a signal as possible while waiting for the NPC approval,” according to economist Shirley Ze Yu of the London School of Economics.

Larry Hu, Macquarie Capital’s chief China economist, doubts that Xi’s policymakers will be too specific about dollar amounts.

” First, they do n’t need to come up with such a number for the NPC to approve”, Hu says. ” Second, it’s hard to come up with such a number, as the line between fiscal, monetary and industrial policies is often blurred in China”.

Hu adds that, given the global financial crisis, it would go against Xi’s deleveraging goals of supplying the economy with stimulus the way Beijing did in 2008 and 2009.

Investors will be keenly focused on Beijing’s implementation of structural reforms, according to Hui of Goldman Sachs. &nbsp,

” The’ 3D ‘ challenges – deteriorating demographics, a multi-year debt deleveraging trend and the global supply chain de-risking push — are unlikely to be reversed by the latest round of policy easing”, Hui argues.

However, Oxford University’s China Center economist George Magnus is concerned that Beijing may continue to implement outdated policies.

” A solution would involve the sustainable expansion of the income and consumer demand shares of the economy, an end to deflation risk, more income redistribution, the promotion of private enterprise, and extensive tax and local government reforms”, Magnus writes in an op-ed for The Guardian.

Magnus adds that” Xi’s more Leninist agenda emphasizes supply and production, and what he calls’ high-quality development,’ which is essentially about state- and party-led industrial policies to allocate capital to lead and dominate modern science, technology and innovation in the global system”.

” China already has and wants to expand advanced industrial expertise and leadership in some key firms and sectors,” according to Magnus. These technologically dominant islands are found in a sea of macroeconomic imbalances and issues that can only be actually addressed by more liberal and open economic reforms.

Bottom line: According to Magnus,” the current focus on economic policy is important not for some decimal points on GDP but as a signal whether the government can, or wants to grasp the nettle.”

Magnus is not the only one who is concerned that policy tinkering wo n’t be sufficient. China will become a more dynamic and competitive economy over the long term if only the government sector is reforming, the capital markets are deepened, and households are encouraged to save less and spend more.

On the other hand, half measures will likely leave China vulnerable to boom/bust cycles brought on by the imbalanced allocation of resources, weak debt, and misalignments between household income and spending.

Investors will want to bereassured that big-picture reforms are on the horizon with the upcoming NPC. For now, though, an increasing number of investors are already getting the memo on China’s grand plan.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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Global leaders gather in Thailand to reimagine equitable education

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PUBLISHED: 11 Oct 2024 at 11: 15

This October, Thailand did play host to a key global function as politicians, education experts, and stakeholders from around the globe come together for the 3rd International Conference on Equitable Education. Under the theme ‘ Reimagining Education, Co-Creating Lifelong Learning for Youth and Adults’, the conference, also known as the All for Education ( AFE ) Conference, will take place on 18-19 October 2024 at the IMPACT Forum, Muang Thong Thani.

The conference, which is co-hosted by the Equitable Education Fund ( EEF ) Thailand and its partners, aims to address one of the most urgent global issues: how to ensure equitable access to quality education for all, especially for underprivileged children and marginalized youth. The occasion promises to provide practical insights and useful recommendations on fostering lifelong learning and empowering younger people at a time when versatile studying pathways and decentralised education models are becoming more important than ever.

In order to improve monitoring and assessment systems, the plan will focus on important topics like skills development, supporting mechanisms for marginalized groups, and decentralized education. A particular emphasis will be placed on addressing the challenges faced by NEETs ( Not in Education, Employment, or Training ), ensuring they are equipped with the skills and opportunities to thrive.

Representatives will have the opportunity to trade knowledge, share best practices, and observe innovations that promote equity-based schooling. Individuals from government agencies, NGOs, academia, civil society, and the private sector are invited to join the discussions and contribute to shaping a more equitable global training program.

Certificates may be awarded to those who finish the two-day function, which will have lessons in English, Thai, and sign vocabulary.

Explore the event site at afe2024 for more information and registration details. electron. or. t.

Thailand’s devotion to a fair education continues to serve as a forum for thought-provoking discussions in the world of learning. Do n’t miss your chance to be part of this critical dialogue.

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How Xi’s crackdown turned China’s finance high-flyers into ‘rats’

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Getty Images Businessman against Chinese flag in double exposure.Getty Images

” Then I think about it, I certainly chose the wrong market”.

Xiao Chen*, who works in a private equity firm in China’s economic hub, Shanghai, says he is having a hard time.

For his first year in the job, he says he was paid almost 750, 000 yuan ($ 106, 200, £81, 200 ). He was certain he would quickly reach the million-yuan level.

He is now making half of what he did when he was younger. His earn was frozen next year, and an annual extra, which had been a major part of his earnings, vanished.

The “glow” of the business has worn off, he says. It had previously made him “feel fancy”. Today, he is just a “finance rat”, as he and his contemporaries are derisively called online.

China’s once-thriving sector, which encouraged ambition, is now slow. The government’s leader, Xi Jinping, has become afraid of personal success and the difficulties of widening injustice.

Reprisals on billionaires and firms, from real estate to technology to funding, have been accompanied by socialist-style communications on enduring pain and trying for China’s success. Even famous people have been instructed to post more photos electronically.

People are told that loyalty to the Communist Party and their country then outweighs personal ambition, which has altered Chinese community in the last few decades.

Mr. Chen’s luxurious lifestyle has undoubtedly experienced the pinch from this U-turn. He exchanged a cheaper vacation in South East Asia for a vacation in Europe. And he says he “would n’t even think about” buying again from luxury brands like” Burberry or Louis Vuitton”.

But at least ordinary workers like him are less likely to find themselves in trouble with the law. Dozens of finance officials and banking bosses have been detained, including the former chairman of the Bank of China.

The market is under strain. Give reductions in banks and investment companies are a hot topic on Chinese social media, despite the few companies that have formally acknowledged it.

Millions of views have been posted on content about falling incomes recently. Additionally, hashtags like” changing careers from fund” and “quitting financing” have received more than two million views on the well-known social media platform Xiaohongshu.

Some finance professionals have seen their money decline since the start of the epidemic, but some people view one popular social media post as a turning point.

In July 2022, a Xiaohongshu person sparked anger after boasting about her 29-year-old father’s 82, 500-yuan monthly spend at leading financial services business, China International Capital Corporation.

People were shocked by the significant wage gap between what a fund contractor was receiving and their own money. The average monthly salary in the country’s richest area, Shanghai, was just over 12, 000 renminbi.

It sparked a discussion about incomes in the field that had been started by another net users who made money earlier that year.

These posts were made shortly after Xi demanded” common wealth,” a plan to close the growing wealth gap.

China’s financing ministry issued new regulations in August 2022 that required businesses to “optimise the domestic income distribution and medically design the wage system.”

The following season, the country’s major problem watchdog criticised the ideas of “finance elites” and the “only cash matters” process, making funding a clearer target for the country’s continued anti-corruption campaign.

Getty Images Shanghai skyline.Getty Images

The changes came in a sweeping but discreet way, according to Alex*, a manager at a state-controlled bank in China’s capital, Beijing.

Even if there is an official document, you would not see the order put into writing; it’s certainly not for people on our level to see it. But everyone knows there is a cap on it ]salaries ] now. Simply put, we are unsure of the cap’s size.

According to Alex, employers are also having a hard time adjusting to the rapid pace of the crackdown:” Many banks ‘ orders could change unexpectedly quickly.”

By June or July, they would realize that the payment of salaries has exceeded the requirement, according to them. They would issue the annual guidance in February. Then they would develop methods to establish performance goals that would take people’s pay.”

Mr. Chen claims that his workload has decreased significantly as fewer companies have started trading shares on the stock market. Domestic businesses have also become cautious in China as a result of the crackdowns and weak consumption, and foreign investment has decreased.

In the past, his work frequently involved new initiatives that would generate revenue for his business. His days are currently primarily filled with chores, such as organizing the data from his earlier projects.

” The team’s morale is very low, and most discussions with the bosses are negative,” the team said. In three to five years, people are discussing what to do.

Although there have been some layoffs, it’s difficult to say whether people are leaving the industry in large numbers. Jobs are also scarce in China now, so even a lower-paying finance job is still worth keeping.

But the frustration is evident. Switching jobs and changing seats were compared by a user on Xiaohongshu, but he warned that if you stand up, your seat might be gone.

Mr. Chen claims that Chinese society in general is at odds with the authorities and that it’s also true that finance workers are at odds with the authorities.

” We are no longer wanted, even on a blind date.” Once they learned that you worked in finance, you would be advised not to leave.

The finance workers ‘ names have been changed to protect their identities.

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